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The deadline arrived, and then 
it moved again. 

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For the third time since March 
21st, Trump extended the power 

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plant ultimatum this time to 
Tuesday at 8:00 in the evening 

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Eastern Time. 
Iran rejected it within hours, 

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calling it incitement to war 
crimes. 

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An Iranian missile hit a 
residential building in Haifa, 

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killing at least two people and 
wounding four others, with 

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rescue workers still searching 
for those missing. 

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Elite Delta Force and SEAL Team 
6 operators were among the 

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hundreds of personnel who rescue
the F15 E Weapon systems officer

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from deep inside Iran, the first
time since 1994 that AUS pilot 

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was shot down in combat and the 
most complex special forces 

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rescue operation in recent 
American military history. 

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And Trump told the Wall Street 
Journal and Axios that if Iran 

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does not make a deal, he will 
blow up everything over there. 

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It is Monday, April 6th, 2026, 
day 38 of Operation Epic Fury. 

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The deadline that was supposed 
to define this war came and went

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without a strike, without a 
ceasefire, and without a deal, 

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and became a new deadline. 
Tomorrow night at 8:00, this war

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reaches its fourth power plant 
ultimatum in less than 3 weeks, 

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and it's most consequential test
of whether Trump's coercive 

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diplomacy has any teeth left. 
This is episode 38 of Epic Fury,

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the US Iran War podcast. 
Follow on Spotify and Apple 

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Podcast to stay with this story 
as it develops. 

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Let's get into it. 
Start with the deadline, because

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understanding exactly what 
happened on April 6th and what 

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happens next requires 
understanding the full sequence 

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of events that produced it and 
what its passing without 

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consequence means for the next 
24 hours. 

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Trump first threatened to strike
Iranian power plants on March 

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21st, giving Iran 48 hours to 
fully reopen the Strait of 

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Hormuz or face destruction of 
its energy infrastructure, 

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beginning with the biggest plant
first 12 hours before that 

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deadline expired. 
On March 23rd, he announced A5 

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day extension, citing productive
conversations that Iran denied 

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had taken place. 
On March 26th, with a 5 day 

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extension about to expire, he 
announced A10 day extension to 

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April 6th at 8:00 in the evening
Eastern Time, citing what he 

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said was Iran's request for more
time and the gift of ships 

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allowed through the Strait. 
April 6th arrived. 

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Hormuz remained closed. 
No power plants were struck. 

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Instead, Trump posted on Truth 
Social Tuesday 8 in the evening 

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Eastern Time. 
That is now the fourth version 

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of the same deadline. 
The pattern is now definitively 

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established. 
Trump issues a deadline. 

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The deadline arrives. 
The deadline moves. 

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Whether Tuesday will be 
different, whether the 4th 

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version of this ultimatum will 
be executed or extended 1/5 

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time, is the central question 
that the world will be watching 

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for the next 36 hours. 
What has changed is the specific

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phrasing, Trump told the Wall 
Street Journal on Monday. 

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If they don't make a deal, I'm 
blowing up everything over 

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there, he told Axios. 
If they don't come through, if 

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they want to keep it closed, 
they want to lose every power 

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plant and every other plant they
have in the whole country. 

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Those are not the phrasings of a
president contemplating a fourth

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extension. 
They are the phrasings of a 

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president preparing the public 
for execution of the threat. 

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There is also a political cost 
to a fourth extension that did 

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not apply to the third. 
Each extension has incrementally

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undermined the credibility of 
the threat itself. 

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Markets and analysts have begun 
to price in the possibility that

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the power plant threat is 
permanently rhetorical, a tool 

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of coercive pressure rather than
a genuine military intention. 

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Each additional extension 
reduces its value as leverage. 

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The first extension was 
understandable. 

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00:04:01,680 --> 00:04:04,240
The second was a surprise, but 
defensible. 

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The third, on April 6th, arrived
despite the bridge strike and 

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the much more to follow framing 
and still did not result in 

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execution. 
A fourth extension, absent some 

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concrete and verifiable movement
from Iran on Hormuz or the 

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nuclear question, risks 
rendering the power plant threat

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permanently incredible. 
That is a significant strategic 

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cost, and it is one that the 
Trump administration's own 

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negotiators understand. 
Iran rejected the Tuesday 

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deadline as it has rejected 
every previous deadline. 

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Iranian officials dismissed the 
latest ultimatum, condemning it 

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as incitement to war crimes. 
Iran warned of retaliatory 

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attacks if the United States 
strikes power plants, desalina 

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tion facilities or bridges. 
The IRGC has maintained 

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throughout this conflict that 
any attack on civilian energy 

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infrastructure will be met with 
equivalent attacks on the Gulf 

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States own civilian energy and 
water infrastructure. 

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Given that the Gulf States, 
Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, 

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Qatar and Bahrain depend on 
desalina tion for their drinking

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water, the stakes of that threat
are not abstract. 

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A sustained campaign against 
desalina tion plants across the 

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Gulf would create a humanitarian
crisis for populations that have

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no alternative water supply. 
There's also a specific legal 

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dimension that Iran and its 
international supporters are 

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pressing. 
International humanitarian law, 

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specifically the 4th Geneva 
Convention and the Rome Statute 

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of the International Criminal 
Court, prohibits attacks on 

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civilian infrastructure 
indispensable to civilian 

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survival. 
Power plants that provide 

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electricity to hospitals, water 
treatment facilities, and 

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residential populations meet 
that definition. 

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Multiple senior UN officials. 
Amnesty International and the 

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International Committee of the 
Red Cross have all publicly 

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stated that the threat to strike
Iranian power plants constitutes

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A threatened war crime. the 
United States government has not

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engaged with that legal 
assessment. 

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The Trump administration's 
position is that the strikes are

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legitimate military pressure to 
reopen the strategic waterway. 

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The gap between those two legal 
frameworks, 1 based on military 

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necessity and strategic 
coercion, the other based on the

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protection of civilian 
populations, has not been 

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resolved and will not be 
resolved by the Tuesday deadline

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passing in either direction. 
The Haifa missile strike is the 

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development from Monday that 
carries the most immediate human

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weight. 
An Iranian ballistic missile hit

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a seven story residential 
building in Haifa, Israel's 

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third largest city and a major 
port, killing at least two 

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people and wounding four others.
Israeli emergency workers were 

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still searching for missing 
residents trapped under the 

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rubble as a Monday afternoon. 
Haifa has been targeted 

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throughout this conflict, but 
this is one of the most 

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significant strikes on a 
residential building in an 

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Israeli city since the war 
began. 

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The missile appears to have 
struck several apartments. 

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Two people are dead, 4 are 
wounded and in the rubble of a 

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Haifa apartment building on the 
38th day of this war. 

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The gap between the strategic 
language of deadlines and the 

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human reality of what this 
conflict is doing to ordinary 

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people is once again impossible 
to ignore. 

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The Haifa strike also carries 
significance for the Israeli 

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domestic debate. 
Israeli far right lawmakers have

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been pushing for Israel to draw 
a new security border in Lebanon

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and expel hundreds of thousands 
of Lebanese civilians who live 

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South of the proposed line. 
Israeli Defense Minister Israel 

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Katz said that if Lebanon does 
not take action beyond mere 

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statements against Hezbollah, 
Israel will invade Lebanon and 

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do it themselves. 
The Israeli military chief of 

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staff warned government 
ministers last week that the IDF

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is under severe strain stretched
across multiple war fronts 

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including Iran, Lebanon, Gaza 
and the security of the West 

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Bank, and that the government is
sending the army into a multi 

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front war without a strategy, 
without the necessary means, and

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with too few soldiers. 
That warning from the ID FS own 

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Chief of Staff is the most 
significant internal Israeli 

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military assessment of the wars 
cost to emerge publicly. 

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It suggests that the alliance 
between Washington and Jerusalem

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in this conflict is not 
symmetrical in terms of burden. 

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the United States is conducting 
the overwhelming majority of 

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strikes on Iran from a position 
of enormous strategic overmatch.

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Israel is simultaneously 
managing Lebanon, Gaza, West 

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Bank security and the Iranian 
missile threat against its 

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cities, a multi front burden 
that its own senior military 

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leadership is describing as 
approaching the limits of what 

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the IDF can sustain. 
Lebanon's death toll from 

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Israeli operations has now 
surpassed 14160. 

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According to the Lebanese Health
Ministry, more than 1,000,000 

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Lebanese nationals, roughly 1/6 
of the country's entire 

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population, have been displaced 
since the war began. 

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The terms of what a deal would 
actually require of both sides 

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deserve examination because the 
gap between the American 15 

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point framework and the Iranian 
5 point counter proposal is not 

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00:09:01,240 --> 00:09:04,640
merely procedural, it is 
substantive in ways that make 

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any quick resolution 
structurally difficult, even if 

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both sides are willing to 
negotiate. 

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The American framework, as 
reported by multiple news 

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organizations, requires Iran to 
halt all uranium enrichment, not

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merely reduce it, but stop 
entirely. 

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It requires Iran to roll back 
its ballistic missile program. 

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It requires Iran to cease 
financial and material support 

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for proxy groups, including 
Hezbollah, the Houthis and 

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Palestinian armed factions. 
It requires the full reopening 

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of the Strait of Hormuz to all 
international shipping. 

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And it requires comprehensive 
verification by the 

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International Atomic Energy 
Agency, including access to 

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sites that Iran has previously 
closed to inspectors. 

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Iran's five point counter 
proposal, as reported by Al 

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Jazeera and others, requires the
United States to pay reparations

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for the war, a condition that no
American administration could 

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accept domestically, 
politically, or legally, given 

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that the United States does not 
recognize the legal basis for 

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any such claim. 
It asserts continued Iranian 

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sovereignty over the Strait of 
Hormuz, including the right to 

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00:10:08,720 --> 00:10:12,040
restrict passage, a position 
that directly contradicts the 

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International Maritime law 
principle of innocent passage 

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that the entire world trading 
system depends on. 

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And it contains conditions on 
nuclear oversight that 

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effectively preserve Iran's 
right to enrich, which is the 

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single condition that the United
States designated as non 

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negotiable from the start. 
Those gaps are not bridgeable in

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00:10:30,120 --> 00:10:33,560
a single negotiating session. 
They may not be bridgeable at 

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all without a sustained 
diplomatic process that neither 

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00:10:36,760 --> 00:10:38,960
side has yet formally agreed to 
begin. 

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The Pakistan intermediary 
channel is passing messages. 

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00:10:43,280 --> 00:10:45,800
It is not yet hosting 
negotiations. 

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00:10:46,320 --> 00:10:49,320
The rescue missions full picture
came into sharper focus on 

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00:10:49,320 --> 00:10:52,920
Monday with CNN reporting that 
elite units including Delta 

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00:10:52,920 --> 00:10:56,000
Force and Seal Team Six were 
among the hundreds of special 

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00:10:56,000 --> 00:10:58,920
operations troops and 
intelligence personnel involved 

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00:10:58,920 --> 00:11:01,760
in retrieving the F15 E Weapon 
Systems officer. 

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00:11:02,160 --> 00:11:06,000
The officers aircraft and F15 E 
Strike Eagle from the 48th 

197
00:11:06,000 --> 00:11:09,560
Fighter Wing, based at RAF 
Lakenheath in Suffolk, England, 

198
00:11:09,640 --> 00:11:12,640
was shot down during a night 
mission in southwest Iran on 

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00:11:12,640 --> 00:11:15,680
Friday. 
Delta Force is the US Army's 

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00:11:15,680 --> 00:11:18,920
tier one special missions unit 
used for the most sensitive 

201
00:11:18,920 --> 00:11:22,320
hostage rescue and direct action
operations in the American 

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00:11:22,320 --> 00:11:26,400
military inventory. 
SEAL Team 6 is the Naval Special

203
00:11:26,400 --> 00:11:30,080
Warfare Development Group, 
similarly Tier 1 and responsible

204
00:11:30,080 --> 00:11:33,120
for the Bin Laden raid and other
high profile operations. 

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00:11:33,520 --> 00:11:36,640
The deployment of both units to 
rescue a single down crew member

206
00:11:36,640 --> 00:11:40,080
is a measure of how seriously 
the US military took the risk of

207
00:11:40,120 --> 00:11:43,880
IRGC capture and how much 
political and strategic weight 

208
00:11:43,880 --> 00:11:47,880
Trump attached to the outcome. 
Trump told Netanyahu in a call 

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00:11:47,880 --> 00:11:50,840
on Monday, as confirmed by 
Netanyahu's post on social 

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00:11:50,840 --> 00:11:54,080
media, that he expressed his 
appreciation for Israel's help 

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00:11:54,080 --> 00:11:56,840
in the rescue. 
Netanyahu said he was deeply 

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00:11:56,840 --> 00:11:59,760
proud that the cooperation 
between the United States and 

213
00:11:59,760 --> 00:12:02,600
Israel on and off the 
battlefield is unprecedented. 

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00:12:03,120 --> 00:12:06,480
He congratulated Trump for the 
perfectly executed American 

215
00:12:06,480 --> 00:12:09,680
mission. 
That framing cooperation on and 

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00:12:09,680 --> 00:12:12,600
off the battlefield is a public 
acknowledgement that the 

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00:12:12,600 --> 00:12:16,120
alliance between Washington and 
Jerusalem in this conflict is 

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00:12:16,120 --> 00:12:19,600
not merely a military one. 
It encompasses intelligence 

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00:12:19,600 --> 00:12:22,600
sharing, operational 
deconfliction and the kind of 

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00:12:22,600 --> 00:12:25,720
real time coordination that 
allowed Israel to stand down to 

221
00:12:25,720 --> 00:12:28,800
full days of air strikes 
specifically to protect the US 

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00:12:28,800 --> 00:12:32,720
rescue operation inside Iran. 
The F15 E that was rescued was 

223
00:12:32,720 --> 00:12:36,320
from the 48th Fighter Wing based
at RAF Lakenheath in Suffolk, 

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00:12:36,320 --> 00:12:39,400
England, a detail that also 
draws Britain, however 

225
00:12:39,400 --> 00:12:43,240
indirectly, into the operational
picture of this conflict in ways

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00:12:43,240 --> 00:12:45,880
that the Starmer government's 
careful positioning has tried to

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00:12:45,880 --> 00:12:49,640
avoid. 4 Iranian Red Crescent 
aid workers have been killed 

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00:12:49,640 --> 00:12:52,960
since the war began, according 
to the International Federation 

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00:12:52,960 --> 00:12:55,120
of Red Cross and Red Crescent 
Societies. 

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00:12:55,560 --> 00:12:58,320
The IFRC issued a statement 
noting that the Red Crescent 

231
00:12:58,320 --> 00:13:01,280
emblem is an internationally 
recognized symbol of neutral, 

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00:13:01,440 --> 00:13:04,680
impartial, and independent 
humanitarian assistance, and 

233
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that ensuring the protection of 
humanitarians wearing the emblem

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is not only a moral issue but an
imperative international legal 

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norm. 
The killing of four Red Crescent

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00:13:13,120 --> 00:13:16,840
workers across 38 days is 1 
indicator among many of the 

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00:13:16,840 --> 00:13:20,080
pattern of damage to civilian 
infrastructure in this conflict.

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The World Health Organization 
identified 13 Iranian health 

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00:13:24,200 --> 00:13:27,640
infrastructure sites struck in 
the war's early weeks. 5 

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00:13:27,640 --> 00:13:31,360
hospitals have been hit. 
Shujare Tia Bay Girls Elementary

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00:13:31,360 --> 00:13:34,280
School in Minnow was struck in 
the first days of the war, 

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killing 180. 
The sports hall in Lambert was 

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00:13:37,600 --> 00:13:41,160
bombed during a girl's practice 
session, killing at least 18 

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00:13:41,160 --> 00:13:44,000
civilians. 
Multiple universities have been 

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00:13:44,000 --> 00:13:46,440
struck. 
Every one of those incidents, 

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00:13:46,520 --> 00:13:49,480
taken individually, represents a
tragedy that would have 

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00:13:49,480 --> 00:13:52,520
dominated international news in 
a different context. 

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00:13:52,960 --> 00:13:56,960
In the context of this war, they
are entries in accumulating log 

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00:13:56,960 --> 00:13:59,720
that the daily military 
briefings do not address. 

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00:14:00,160 --> 00:14:03,000
The war has now been running for
5 1/2 weeks. 

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More than 2000 people have been 
killed in Iran, more than 1400 

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00:14:08,480 --> 00:14:11,280
in Lebanon. 
More than 30 people have been 

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00:14:11,280 --> 00:14:14,160
killed in Arab Gulf states since
February 28th. 

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00:14:14,400 --> 00:14:17,160
The majority of the migrant 
workers, a demographic that 

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00:14:17,160 --> 00:14:20,040
lacks political voice and media 
coverage but absorbs A 

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00:14:20,040 --> 00:14:23,240
disproportionate share of the 
physical risk of Iranian attacks

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00:14:23,240 --> 00:14:27,320
on Gulf infrastructure. 13 US 
service members are dead. 

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00:14:27,720 --> 00:14:30,560
The Strait of Hormuz remains 
effectively closed. 

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00:14:31,000 --> 00:14:35,760
Oil is above $100 per barrel. 
Gas in the United States is at 

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00:14:35,760 --> 00:14:40,320
$4.06 per gallon. 
British energy bills are rising 

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00:14:40,320 --> 00:14:44,720
from LNG supply disruption. 
Australian petrol prices are at 

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00:14:44,720 --> 00:14:48,200
post pandemic highs. 
Free public transport has been 

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00:14:48,200 --> 00:14:51,720
introduced in Victoria and 
Tasmania to offset the cost. 

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00:14:52,120 --> 00:14:55,760
The Bank of America forecasts 
oil at $100 per barrel through 

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00:14:55,760 --> 00:14:59,240
the end of 2026. 
The UN Food and Agriculture 

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00:14:59,240 --> 00:15:02,040
Organizations chief economist 
warned this week that markets 

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will absorb the war's impact if 
the conflict ends in the next 

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00:15:04,760 --> 00:15:07,360
two weeks, but that if it 
continues for three to six 

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00:15:07,360 --> 00:15:10,600
months, it will not only impact 
food security and energy but 

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00:15:10,600 --> 00:15:13,320
other sectors as well because 
prices will rise. 

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00:15:13,720 --> 00:15:16,200
He added that the fall in 
remittances from overseas 

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00:15:16,200 --> 00:15:19,080
workers, many of whom live in 
the Gulf states now under 

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00:15:19,080 --> 00:15:22,440
sustained Iranian attack, will 
affect economic development and 

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00:15:22,440 --> 00:15:24,280
growth across the developing 
world. 

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00:15:24,760 --> 00:15:28,000
The war's economic toll is not a
short term shock. 

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00:15:28,400 --> 00:15:32,600
It is a structural feature of 
2026 and on a three to six month

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00:15:32,600 --> 00:15:36,320
horizon, its effects on food 
security in the global S could 

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00:15:36,320 --> 00:15:38,840
dwarf its direct military 
consequences. 

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00:15:39,240 --> 00:15:43,640
And yet the diplomatic track, 
however thin, remains nominally 

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00:15:43,640 --> 00:15:46,560
open. 
Pakistan is still serving as the

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00:15:46,560 --> 00:15:49,760
intermediary. 
Turkey and Egypt are still 

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00:15:49,760 --> 00:15:53,640
working behind the scenes. 
The 15 point US proposal is 

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00:15:53,640 --> 00:15:57,320
still on the table. 
Iran has not formally agreed, 

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00:15:57,640 --> 00:16:00,800
but it has not formally and 
finally rejected it either. 

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00:16:01,280 --> 00:16:04,920
Arachi has continued to engage 
with regional counterparts even 

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00:16:04,920 --> 00:16:08,560
as he publicly dismisses the 15 
point framework is unreasonable.

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00:16:09,000 --> 00:16:11,600
Posseschian has made conditional
statements about Iran's 

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00:16:11,600 --> 00:16:16,080
willingness to end the conflict 
even as the IRGC publicly defies

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00:16:16,080 --> 00:16:18,240
every deadline. 
And the leaked Posseschian 

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00:16:18,240 --> 00:16:21,480
Vahidi exchange makes clear that
the civilian government has been

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00:16:21,480 --> 00:16:23,320
cut out of the negotiating 
process. 

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00:16:23,720 --> 00:16:27,440
The structural picture is this. 
There are two documents on the 

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00:16:27,440 --> 00:16:31,480
table, a 15 point American 
framework and A5 point Iranian 

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00:16:31,480 --> 00:16:34,560
counter proposal. 
The gap between them is large. 

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00:16:34,880 --> 00:16:38,040
The American framework requires 
Iran to halt all nuclear 

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00:16:38,040 --> 00:16:41,640
enrichment, rollback its missile
program, and see support for 

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00:16:41,640 --> 00:16:44,480
proxy groups. 
The Iranian counterproposal 

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00:16:44,480 --> 00:16:48,120
requires war reparations, 
continued Iranian sovereignty 

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00:16:48,120 --> 00:16:51,640
over the Strait of Hormuz, and 
conditions on nuclear oversight 

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00:16:51,640 --> 00:16:53,880
that no American administration 
could accept. 

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00:16:54,280 --> 00:16:57,160
But the existence of both 
documents and the continued 

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00:16:57,160 --> 00:17:00,280
activity of the Pakistan 
Intermediary channel means the 

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00:17:00,280 --> 00:17:03,600
diplomatic infrastructure for a 
deal exists, even if the deal 

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00:17:03,600 --> 00:17:06,040
does not. 
Yet every ceasefire in modern 

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00:17:06,040 --> 00:17:09,560
history has been built on 
exactly this foundation. 2 

306
00:17:09,560 --> 00:17:12,680
positions that appear 
irreconcilable and then a crisis

307
00:17:12,680 --> 00:17:16,079
moment that forces both sides to
choose between a bad deal and a 

308
00:17:16,079 --> 00:17:18,400
worse war. 
Whether Tuesday at 8:00 in the 

309
00:17:18,400 --> 00:17:21,440
evening is that moment is the 
question on which this episode 

310
00:17:21,440 --> 00:17:23,680
ends. 
If the power plants are struck, 

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00:17:23,839 --> 00:17:27,160
Iran retaliates against Gulf 
desalina tion infrastructure, 

312
00:17:27,560 --> 00:17:32,200
oil spikes to 120 or $130.00 per
barrel, and the humanitarian 

313
00:17:32,200 --> 00:17:35,640
consequences for 90 million 
Iranians become catastrophic, 

314
00:17:35,840 --> 00:17:39,000
the pressure on all parties to 
find a resolution will intensify

315
00:17:39,000 --> 00:17:41,720
dramatically. 
If the deadline passes again 

316
00:17:41,720 --> 00:17:44,680
without a strike, the 
credibility of every future 

317
00:17:44,680 --> 00:17:48,280
American ultimatum in this 
conflict, and potentially beyond

318
00:17:48,280 --> 00:17:51,760
it, will be further eroded. 
Neither outcome is good. 

319
00:17:52,320 --> 00:17:54,920
One is more immediately 
catastrophic. 

320
00:17:55,600 --> 00:17:58,840
That is the choice that Tuesday 
at 8:00 in the evening, forces 

321
00:17:59,440 --> 00:18:02,400
for each of the three Democratic
allies whose populations are 

322
00:18:02,400 --> 00:18:05,600
most directly experiencing the 
economic consequences of this 

323
00:18:05,600 --> 00:18:09,080
war, the 38th day produces a 
specific picture. 

324
00:18:09,520 --> 00:18:13,240
In the United States, the rescue
of the F15 E weapons systems 

325
00:18:13,240 --> 00:18:16,600
officer has temporarily shifted 
the domestic narrative from 

326
00:18:16,600 --> 00:18:20,600
economic pain to military pride.
But the fundamental situation 

327
00:18:20,880 --> 00:18:25,840
Gas above $4.00, oil above $100 
for the foreseeable future. 13 

328
00:18:25,840 --> 00:18:28,800
service members dead. 
A war now in its sixth week with

329
00:18:28,800 --> 00:18:30,720
no announced end has not 
changed. 

330
00:18:31,120 --> 00:18:34,240
Trump's approval rating remains 
at its lowest point of his 

331
00:18:34,240 --> 00:18:36,840
second term. 
Republicans in competitive 

332
00:18:36,840 --> 00:18:40,280
midterm districts are managing 
the war as both asset and 

333
00:18:40,280 --> 00:18:44,320
liability simultaneously. 
The rescue provides an emotional

334
00:18:44,320 --> 00:18:47,160
counterpoint to the economic 
argument against the war. 

335
00:18:47,560 --> 00:18:49,520
It does not resolve that 
argument. 

336
00:18:50,200 --> 00:18:53,760
In the United Kingdom, the April
6th deadline has passed into a 

337
00:18:53,760 --> 00:18:56,680
Tuesday deadline with no formal 
response from the British 

338
00:18:56,680 --> 00:18:59,120
government. 
Starmer continues to walk his 

339
00:18:59,120 --> 00:19:02,800
narrow path, reaffirming support
for the war's stated objectives 

340
00:19:02,800 --> 00:19:05,640
while declining military 
participation in offensive 

341
00:19:05,640 --> 00:19:08,920
operations. 
British energy bills are rising.

342
00:19:09,320 --> 00:19:11,440
Parliament has not voted on the 
war. 

343
00:19:11,920 --> 00:19:15,120
The Diego Garcia and RAF 
Fairford Co belligerents 

344
00:19:15,120 --> 00:19:17,720
question remains officially 
unresolved. 

345
00:19:18,160 --> 00:19:20,880
Labor backbenchers are 
increasingly vocal. 

346
00:19:21,280 --> 00:19:25,200
The 35 Nation Maritime Coalition
that Starmer assembled is a post

347
00:19:25,200 --> 00:19:29,080
war framework that does nothing 
for today's energy prices in 

348
00:19:29,080 --> 00:19:31,520
Australia. 
Prime Minister Albanese's 

349
00:19:31,520 --> 00:19:34,800
pushback against Trump's 
criticism has received wide 

350
00:19:34,800 --> 00:19:37,920
domestic coverage. 
The specific accusation that 

351
00:19:37,920 --> 00:19:41,800
Australia was not great and the 
specific rebuttal that every 

352
00:19:41,800 --> 00:19:45,120
request made has been agreed to 
defines Australia's position 

353
00:19:45,120 --> 00:19:47,840
precisely. 
It is an ally that is doing what

354
00:19:47,840 --> 00:19:49,880
is asked of. 
It has not been asked to do what

355
00:19:49,880 --> 00:19:53,640
cannot politically justify and 
is absorbing economic costs 

356
00:19:53,640 --> 00:19:57,640
without military exposure. 
That position is sustainable for

357
00:19:57,640 --> 00:20:00,120
now. 
Whether Trump, emboldened by the

358
00:20:00,120 --> 00:20:02,840
rescue and under domestic 
pressure to execute his 

359
00:20:02,840 --> 00:20:06,040
deadline, asks more of his 
allies in the weeks ahead is the

360
00:20:06,040 --> 00:20:09,280
question. 
Tomorrow is Tuesday, the 

361
00:20:09,280 --> 00:20:11,920
deadline is 8 in the evening 
Eastern Time. 

362
00:20:12,400 --> 00:20:15,520
Trump has said he will blow up 
everything if no deal is 

363
00:20:15,520 --> 00:20:18,200
reached. 
Iran has said it will retaliate 

364
00:20:18,200 --> 00:20:21,280
against the Gulf state civilian 
infrastructure if any power 

365
00:20:21,280 --> 00:20:24,040
plant is struck. 
The diplomatic track is 

366
00:20:24,040 --> 00:20:27,560
nominally alive. 
The military campaign continues 

367
00:20:27,560 --> 00:20:31,600
at its established pace and a 
new deadline, the 4th, is now 

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00:20:31,600 --> 00:20:34,640
the hinge on which this 
conflicts next chapter turns. 

369
00:20:35,040 --> 00:20:37,840
If this podcast is helping you 
make sense of what is happening,

370
00:20:38,080 --> 00:20:41,640
please take 30 seconds to leave 
a review on Spotify or Apple 

371
00:20:41,640 --> 00:20:44,400
Podcasts. 
It makes an enormous difference 

372
00:20:44,400 --> 00:20:46,080
to how many people find the 
show. 

373
00:20:46,480 --> 00:20:51,520
This has been episode 38 of Epic
Fury, the US Iran war podcast. 

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00:20:51,920 --> 00:20:56,080
Tomorrow is Tuesday, the 4th 
deadline arrives at 8 in the 

375
00:20:56,080 --> 00:20:59,840
evening Eastern Time. 
The April 6th deadline passed 

376
00:20:59,840 --> 00:21:02,560
without a strike. 
Whether the Tuesday deadline 

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00:21:02,560 --> 00:21:05,720
will too, or whether this is the
moment the coercive threat 

378
00:21:05,720 --> 00:21:09,560
finally becomes kinetic, is the 
question this war will answer in

379
00:21:09,560 --> 00:21:13,000
the next 24 hours. 
We will be back very soon.