Hezbollah has entered the war. It is Monday March 2nd, 2026,
day three of Operation Epic Fury and the conflict that began in
Iran has now officially spread to Lebanon.
This is episode 3 of Epic Fury, the US Iran War podcast.
A great deal has happened in the last 24 hours.
Let's get straight into it. Let's start with the development
that changes the entire shape of this conflict.
Hezbollah has fired rockets into northern Israel for the first
time since the November 2024 ceasefire that ended more than a
year of hostilities between the two sides.
In the early hours of Monday morning, Israeli sources
reported projectiles being launched from within Lebanon
toward Israeli territory, setting off sirens across Haifa
and the upper Galilee. The IDF said it intercepted a
rocket while others hit open areas.
Israeli intelligence believe the attack was ordered directly from
Tehran. The IDF spokesperson issued an
emergency statement. It said the attack is to be
considered an official declaration of war by Hezbollah.
The IDF vowed to neutralize the threat immediately.
Israel's response was immediate and severe.
The IDF launched a series of strategic bombing strikes on
Beirut and the Beka Valley. Strikes also hit southern
Lebanon. Smoke was seen rising from
Dahiya, Hezbollah's stronghold in Beirut's southern suburbs,
and footage published by The Associated Press in the early
hours of Monday morning. Hezbollah's leader, Naeem Qasim,
had made a statement just hours earlier saying his movement
would undertake its duty of confronting the aggression.
He said Hezbollah would not leave the field of honor and
resistance. He made clear for the avoidance
of any doubt that Hezbollah is not neutral in this conflict.
Lebanon's Prime Minister Nawaf Salam urged restraint,
cautioning that Lebanon must not be drawn into a wider regional
war and should prioritize its own security and stability.
Lebanon's government convened an emergency cabinet meeting
following Hezbollah's attack and the subsequent Israeli strikes
on Lebanese territory. Israel also killed the head of
Hezbollah's parliamentary bloc in the Lebanese parliament.
Muhammad Rod, 1 of Hezbollah's most senior political figures,
was confirmed killed in an Israeli strike, according to
Saudi channel Al Haddeth. Let that sink in.
We are on day three. The conflict has officially
spread from Iran to Lebanon. Hezbollah, which did not
directly intervene during the 12 day war between Iran and Israel
back in June 2025, has now entered this fight and Israel
has responded by bombing Beirut. Now let's talk about something
extraordinary that happened overnight.
A British military base was struck in the first hours of
Monday, March 2nd. Reports emerged that RAF
Akrotiri on the island of Cyprus had been hit by a drone, causing
minor structural damage and setting off air raid sirens
across the British Sovereign Base areas.
Multiple local and international sources reported the incident.
The British military's automated alert system stated there was an
ongoing security threat, and the Ministry of Defense confirmed
the base had responded to the attack. 5 drones were reportedly
intercepted, although one managed to hit the airfield.
As of the time of recording. No official confirmation of who
was responsible has been given. However, the timing leaves
little doubt in the minds of most analysts.
RAF Akrotiri is one of Britain's most strategically important
overseas military installations and serves as a key hub for
operations across the Middle East.
If confirmed as an Iranian or Iranian proxy strike, it would
represent an extraordinary escalation, marking the first
attack on British sovereign territory since the Second World
War. Now let's talk about the B2
bombers because the United States has significantly
escalated its military campaign overnight.
United States Air Force B2 Spirit Stealth bombers conducted
new strikes against Iranian targets in the latest wave of
Operation Epic Fury overnight. The B2 is the most advanced
strategic bomber in the world, capable of carrying both
conventional and nuclear weapons and specifically designed to
penetrate hardened, deeply buried targets.
Its deployment signals that the United States is targeting the
most fortified underground facilities in Iran's nuclear and
military infrastructure, bunkers that conventional aircraft
simply cannot reach for. Dow, the deeply buried uranium
enrichment facility that survived the June 2025 strikes,
is believed to be among the targets that only AB2 can
reliably destroy. Trump released a second video
address on Truth Social, updating the American public.
He said the campaign had hit hundreds of targets in Iran,
including Revolutionary Guard facilities.
He confirmed 9 Iranian ships have been struck.
Iran's air defense systems, he said, have been largely
destroyed. In an interview with the Daily
Mail, Trump said he expected the operation to be concluded in
four weeks or less. This is the first time a
specific time frame has been publicly put on record by the
president. Trump also told CNBC the
operation was moving along very well ahead of schedule.
Now let's talk about the total death toll because the numbers
are staggering and still climbing.
Iran's Red Crescent Society released a statement on Monday
saying that at least 555 people have been killed in the United
States and Israeli strikes on Iran.
That figure is expected to rise significantly as communications
are restored and rescue operations reach areas struck in
the opening waves. The most painful single incident
remains the min of school airstrike. 148 children killed
in a girl's elementary school in southern Iran.
That figure has not changed since Sunday but continues to
generate enormous international reaction.
The Iranian Red Crescent also reported explosions near
hospitals in Tehran and near its peace building headquarters in
Israel. A woman was killed and 27 others
were injured when an Iranian missile struck a residential
area in Tel Aviv. A9 Story building was struck by
a missile in northern Israel, injuring one person.
Strikes were reported in Haifa and Tel Aviv throughout the
night. Now let's talk about what is
happening in the global economy, because this war is not just
reshaping the Middle East, it is reshaping financial markets
around the world. When trading opened on Monday
morning, the reaction was immediate and severe.
Brent crude oil, the global benchmark, surged sharply toward
the 85 to $90.00 per barrel range.
That is up from $73 just days ago.
At the same time, stock futures tumbled.
Futures for the S&P 500 plunged over 1%.
NASDAQ 100 contracts were down 1 1/2 percent.
Dow futures dropped sharply. Gold surged as investors rushed
to safe havens. the United States dollar strengthened and
natural gas prices rose approximately 2%, raising the
prospect of higher electricity bills across Europe and beyond.
The reason markets are this rattled comes down to one word,
hornless. The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow
waterway just 21 miles wide at its narrowest point.
Located between Iran and Oman, it is the single most important
oil choke point on the planet. Approximately 20 million barrels
of oil flow through it every single day.
That is roughly 1/5 of all daily global oil production.
Every barrel of oil exported from Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iraq,
the UAE and Iran itself passes through the Strait.
There is no viable alternative route that can handle this
volume of traffic. The Saudi East West pipeline and
the UAE Fujairah pipeline together can divert only a
fraction of that flow. Iran controls the northern shore
of the Strait, and Iran has threatened to close it.
As of Monday morning, Iran had not formally closed the Strait
of Hormuz. However, the practical situation
was already dire. At least six of the world's
leading cargo shipping companies announced they were halting or
diverting ships that have been due to sail through the
waterway. Insurance premiums for vessels
transiting the straight hit six year highs, making passage
economically unviable for most commercial operators.
The result is what analysts are calling a de facto closure, not
a formal blockade, but the same economic effect.
JP Morgan Chase analysts released a note on Sunday
outlining what they call the four variables that will
determine where oil prices go from here, how much supply is
disrupted, how long the disruption lasts, whether other
producers can mobilize quickly, and what comes next
diplomatically and militarily On every one of those 4 variables,
the picture as of Monday morning is deeply uncertain.
OPEC announced an increase in production to try to offset the
disruption. Analysts were skeptical it would
be enough. Saudi Arabia alone holds
approximately 2 to 3,000,000 barrels per day of spare
production capacity. But if the straight remains
effectively closed, that additional production cannot
reach global markets. Regardless, if Brent crude were
to sustain above $100 per barrel, economists estimate it
could add 0.6 to 0.7% to global inflation for families already
dealing with the cost of living pressures that have dominated
politics across the Western world for the past three years.
Higher petrol prices, higher energy bills and higher food
prices driven by transport costs will be the most direct and
immediate consequence of this conflict landing in their daily
lives. The targeting of the Rasta Neuro
oil refinery in Saudi Arabia by an Iranian drone on Sunday, even
though it was intercepted, send a specific signal to markets.
Rastanura is one of the largest oil export facilities in the
world. A successful strike there would
be one of the most consequential single events in global energy
history. Markets priced in the risk
accordingly. Now let's talk about Iran's
retaliatory campaign. Because Tehran has not stopped
fighting. Iran designated its retaliatory
campaign operation True Promise. For since the operation began,
Iran launched 165 ballistic missiles, 2 cruise missiles, and
541 drones toward Israel alone. Of those 152 ballistic missiles,
both cruise missiles and 506 drones were intercepted by
Israeli air defenses. But 35 drones fell within
Israeli territory, causing material damage and casualties.
Beyond Israel, 282 Iranian missiles and 833 drones were
intercepted by Gulf state air defense forces.
Countries targeted by Iran included Jordan, Syria, Kuwait,
Bahrain, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Oman and the United Arab
Emirates. In the UAE, one person was
killed and seven were injured when a drone hit Zayed
International Airport in Abu Dhabi.
The outer facade of the Burj Al Arab hotel in Dubai caught fire
from interception debris. Jebel Ali port in Dubai, one of
the busiest ports in the world, also caught fire.
A concourse at Dubai International Airport was
damaged. Iran also struck the United
States Fifth Fleet headquarters in Bahrain and Al Udiyid air
base in Qatar. The IRGC announced a fresh large
scale offensive wave on Sunday evening.
Blasts were heard in Riyadh, Dubai, Abu Dhabi, Doha, Manama,
Jerusalem and Tel Aviv. Both Saudi Arabia and the UAE,
which had previously committed only to intercepting Iranian
salvos, issued statements on Sunday signaling A willingness
to respond directly. Saudi Arabia stated it will take
all necessary measures to defend its security, including with the
option of responding to the aggression.
That represents a significant and potentially game changing
shift from Riyadh's previous position of study neutrality.
The Houthis in Yemen announced they were returning to their
campaign of attacks in the Red Sea in solidarity with Iran,
raising the prospect of renewed disruption to one of the world's
most critical shipping lanes. At least 14,000 flights have
been canceled or disrupted. The European Union Aviation
Safety Agency issued an emergency bulletin advising all
airlines to avoid the airspace of Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Israel,
Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, Qatar, the UAE and Saudi Arabia.
Emirates, Qatar Airways, Etihad Airways, El Al, Air India,
Indigo, Lufthansa Was Air, and Virgin Atlantic all suspended
operations across the region. Now let's talk about the
negotiation situation because there has been a genuinely
surprising diplomatic development.
On Sunday, Trump announced that the United States has agreed to
continue negotiations with Iran. This came as a surprise to many
given the scale of the ongoing military operation.
However, Iran's position is far less clear.
Iran's top security official, Ali Larijani publicly denied
that Tehran had approached the United States to resume talks,
he posted on social media. Iran will not negotiate with the
United States. However, the Wall Street Journal
reported that Larijani had in fact approached the Americans
through Oman's mediation with the aim of reviving
negotiations. Oman's foreign minister
confirmed he had spoken with Iran's Foreign Minister Arachi
and affirmed Oman's continued call for a ceasefire and return
to dialogue. What is actually happening
behind the scenes is unclear. Publicly, Iran says it will not
negotiate. Privately, signals are being
sent through Oman. This back channel diplomacy,
happening simultaneously with active bombardment on both
sides, is one of the most complex diplomatic situations in
modern history. Iran's foreign minister Arachi
made a striking statement on Sunday.
He suggested that some Iranian military units were acting
independently from central government control.
Read that carefully. Iran's own foreign minister is
suggesting that parts of his country's military are operating
outside the command structure. That admission speaks directly
to the chaos created by the deaths of Khamenei and 40 senior
commanders in the opening hours of the operation.
Now let's talk about Congress. Because the political battle in
Washington has intensified. Both the House and the Senate
are set to take votes this week on war powers resolutions that
would block the president from using further military force
against Iran without congressional approval.
However, those votes are expected to be largely symbolic.
Even if the resolutions pass, they are unlikely to attract the
2/3 majority needed to override a presidential veto.
Retired General Frank McKenzie, the former commander of United
States Central Command, appeared on Face the Nation to outline
what to expect. He warned that Iran still
retains significant capability to inflict damage across the
region despite the losses it has suffered, and cautioned against
underestimating what Tehran could still do.
Anti war protests have been spreading across the United
States under the banner of hands off Iran.
Hundreds gathered at Times Square in New York City.
Protests were held in Chicago, Columbus, Indianapolis,
Jacksonville, Portland and Seattle.
Now let's look at the international picture because
the world is mobilizing rapidly. The European Union's foreign
policy chief, Kaia Carlos, described the situation as
perilous and call for civilians to be protected and for
international law to be upheld. French President Emmanuel Macron
warned that the conflict carries grave consequences for
international peace and security and called for an urgent meeting
of the United Nations Security Council.
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said he would travel to
Washington on Tuesday to speak directly with President Trump
about the latest developments. The EU 3.
The United Kingdom, France and Germany resolved to back, if
needed, proportionate military defensive measures against
Iranian drones and ballistic missiles, signaling the
potential for direct European military involvement in
defending against Iranian attacks.
British Prime Minister Kier Starmer confirmed that United
States forces can use British bases for defensive strikes on
Iran. He said British planes are in
the sky today as part of coordinated regional defensive
operations. He added.
Iran can end this now. Pope Leo the 14th called on all
involved nations to stop what he described as the spiral of
violence, warning that the war could lead to a tragedy of
enormous proportions. Russia and China continue to
condemn the operation. Pakistan saw further violent
clashes near the United States consulate in Karachi.
North Korea maintained its denunciation.
Now let's step back and think about where we are as we enter
Day 4. The conflict has widened
dramatically in 72 hours. It began as a United States and
Israeli campaign against Iran. It has now drawn in Hezbollah in
Lebanon with Israeli bombers over Beirut for the first time
since 2024. It has struck British sovereign
territory in Cyprus. Saudi Arabia's most important
oil facility has been targeted. Gulf states that were never
meant to be part of this conflict are under sustained
attack. 14,000 flights remain disrupted.
Global oil markets are under severe pressure, with Brent
crude surging toward $90.00 and the Strait of Hormuz effectively
closed to commercial shipping. Iran has lost its supreme leader
and 40 senior commanders, but it has not stopped fighting.
Its foreign minister has admitted some military units may
be operating without central control.
And the question of who actually commands Iran's remaining
missile arsenal, its proxies and its nuclear knowledge right now
is the most dangerous unanswered question in the world. the
United States is using B2 stealth bombers.
Trump says the operation will be done in four weeks, but nobody
has defined what done means. Doesn't mean a ceasefire.
Does it mean the fall of the Islamic Republic?
Does it mean a new nuclear agreement signed under military
duress? Nobody knows.
Three Americans are dead. 555 Iranians are confirmed dead,
with a number rising. 148 of them are children from a school
in Minnah. Oil is surging.
Stock markets are falling. Hezbollah is firing rockets.
Beirut is being bombed, a British base in Cyprus has been
struck, and the bombs on both sides are still falling.
That is episode 3 of Epic Fury, the US Iran war podcast.
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