1 00:00:16,840 --> 00:00:20,600 Rubio said Friday morning the United States expects a response 2 00:00:20,600 --> 00:00:24,280 from Iran on the peace proposal. Yesterday, Trump said he is 3 00:00:24,280 --> 00:00:28,080 expecting a letter from Iran. Supposedly tonight Iran's 4 00:00:28,080 --> 00:00:31,320 Foreign Ministry called it a grotesque absurdity for the US 5 00:00:31,320 --> 00:00:34,360 to claim to seek peace while simultaneously threatening one 6 00:00:34,360 --> 00:00:37,120 big glow. Iran's Foreign Minister Arachi 7 00:00:37,120 --> 00:00:40,080 posted on X that every time a diplomatic solution is on the 8 00:00:40,080 --> 00:00:43,760 table, the US opts for a reckless military adventure and 9 00:00:43,760 --> 00:00:47,080 that Iranians never bow to pressure and diplomacy is always 10 00:00:47,080 --> 00:00:51,640 the victim. the US fired on 2 Iranian oil tankers on Friday to 11 00:00:51,680 --> 00:00:55,080 enforce the blockade. Hezbollah attacked an Israeli 12 00:00:55,080 --> 00:00:58,360 military base, the first publicly claimed cross-border 13 00:00:58,360 --> 00:01:00,960 strike since the Lebanon ceasefire extension was 14 00:01:00,960 --> 00:01:03,880 announced, and the State Department announced the second 15 00:01:03,880 --> 00:01:07,280 round of Israel Lebanon peace negotiations to be held later 16 00:01:07,280 --> 00:01:11,360 this month. It is Saturday, May 9th, 2026, 17 00:01:11,800 --> 00:01:16,080 day 71 of Operation Epic Fury. The war is 71st morning. 18 00:01:16,640 --> 00:01:20,120 The ceasefire is intact for Trump, who also fired on 2 19 00:01:20,120 --> 00:01:23,320 Iranian tankers on Friday and named the Hormuz Transit 20 00:01:23,320 --> 00:01:26,760 operation Project Freedom and announced Project Freedom Plus 21 00:01:26,760 --> 00:01:29,160 is available if a deal does not materialize. 22 00:01:29,600 --> 00:01:33,160 Iran's response is expected, according to Rubio today. 23 00:01:33,560 --> 00:01:36,320 And the distance between Iran's grotesque absurdity, 24 00:01:36,320 --> 00:01:39,960 characterization, and assigned framework agreement is precisely 25 00:01:39,960 --> 00:01:44,760 where this war currently lives. This is episode 71 of Epic Fury, 26 00:01:44,880 --> 00:01:49,080 the US Iran War podcast. Follow on Spotify and Apple 27 00:01:49,080 --> 00:01:51,880 Podcast to stay with this story as it develops. 28 00:01:52,400 --> 00:01:55,480 Let's get into it. Begin with Friday's diplomatic 29 00:01:55,480 --> 00:01:57,520 standoff. Because it contains the most 30 00:01:57,520 --> 00:02:00,000 compressed sequence of contradictory signals this 31 00:02:00,000 --> 00:02:03,640 conflict is produced in any single day, and because embedded 32 00:02:03,640 --> 00:02:07,240 within those signals is the specific question that Day 71 33 00:02:07,240 --> 00:02:10,400 exists to answer. Rubio said on Friday morning 34 00:02:10,400 --> 00:02:13,600 that the United States expected a response from Iran on the 35 00:02:13,600 --> 00:02:17,120 peace proposal that day. He said the US would see what 36 00:02:17,120 --> 00:02:20,720 the response entails and that he hoped it was a serious offer. 37 00:02:21,240 --> 00:02:24,080 Those two formulations, we will see what it entails. 38 00:02:24,120 --> 00:02:27,480 I hope it is a serious offer. Are Rubio managing American 39 00:02:27,480 --> 00:02:29,680 public expectations with deliberate care? 40 00:02:30,080 --> 00:02:32,400 He did not say a response had arrived. 41 00:02:32,960 --> 00:02:37,280 He said the US expects 1 today. He did not say the framework is 42 00:02:37,280 --> 00:02:39,480 agreed or that Iran has committed. 43 00:02:40,080 --> 00:02:43,600 He said he hopes the Iranian response is serious, meaning one 44 00:02:43,600 --> 00:02:46,560 would assume a response that rejects the framework or 45 00:02:46,560 --> 00:02:50,080 restates the grotesque absurdity position would not constitute a 46 00:02:50,080 --> 00:02:53,080 serious offer. By Friday afternoon, Trump 47 00:02:53,080 --> 00:02:55,760 confirmed from the White House that he was expecting a letter 48 00:02:55,760 --> 00:02:59,400 from Iran supposedly tonight as he was departing for the 49 00:02:59,400 --> 00:03:01,920 weekend. Asked whether he believed Iran 50 00:03:01,920 --> 00:03:04,480 was slow rolling the negotiations, Trump replied. 51 00:03:04,880 --> 00:03:08,800 We will find out soon enough that exchange, Rubio expecting a 52 00:03:08,800 --> 00:03:11,880 response, Trump expecting a letter supposedly tonight. 53 00:03:12,120 --> 00:03:15,440 Neither confirming arrival as of the afternoon press pool brings 54 00:03:15,440 --> 00:03:18,960 Day 71 to a specific and unresolved question. 55 00:03:19,160 --> 00:03:21,360 Did the letter arrive and what did it say? 56 00:03:21,880 --> 00:03:24,280 As of this Friday night recording, no public 57 00:03:24,280 --> 00:03:27,280 confirmation of the letters arrival have been reported by 58 00:03:27,400 --> 00:03:31,440 any major news organization. The 48 hour response window the 59 00:03:31,440 --> 00:03:34,120 administration described on Wednesday as the expected 60 00:03:34,120 --> 00:03:37,080 Iranian reply timeline has extended through Thursday 61 00:03:37,080 --> 00:03:40,120 afternoon, through Thursday night, through Friday morning, 62 00:03:40,320 --> 00:03:43,320 and into Friday evening without a publicly confirmed final 63 00:03:43,320 --> 00:03:46,360 Iranian answer. The extension of that window is 64 00:03:46,360 --> 00:03:50,080 itself significant. Iran's civilian diplomatic track 65 00:03:50,080 --> 00:03:52,560 is conducting an internal deliberation on the most 66 00:03:52,560 --> 00:03:55,680 significant and consequential strategic concession its 67 00:03:55,680 --> 00:03:58,240 government has been asked to make since 1979. 68 00:03:58,640 --> 00:04:02,520 The nuclear commitment. The enriched uranium stockpile 69 00:04:02,520 --> 00:04:06,360 removed from Iranian territory, potentially to the United States 70 00:04:06,760 --> 00:04:10,960 for Dow prohibited snap inspections authorized a 71 00:04:10,960 --> 00:04:15,040 framework that binds a 12 to 15 year moratorium on enrichment. 72 00:04:15,440 --> 00:04:18,240 Lebanon included in the war ending declaration. 73 00:04:18,920 --> 00:04:21,880 Each of those elements requires common A's explicit 74 00:04:21,880 --> 00:04:25,160 authorization. Each requires that the Irgc's 75 00:04:25,160 --> 00:04:28,680 hardline position that Iran does not negotiate under military 76 00:04:28,680 --> 00:04:31,320 pressure, that any concession made under duress is 77 00:04:31,320 --> 00:04:35,000 capitulation, That Arachi's grotesque absurdity formulation 78 00:04:35,000 --> 00:04:38,520 is the right characterization be overcome by the civilian tracks 79 00:04:38,520 --> 00:04:40,320 argument. That the cost of not conceding 80 00:04:40,320 --> 00:04:44,200 now under this blockade and this military posture is greater than 81 00:04:44,200 --> 00:04:47,120 the cost of conceding. That deliberation is happening 82 00:04:47,120 --> 00:04:49,920 in meetings, audio calls and internal governmental 83 00:04:49,920 --> 00:04:52,400 communications that no public reporting can see. 84 00:04:52,400 --> 00:04:55,480 In that Pakistan's mediation team may be only partially 85 00:04:55,480 --> 00:04:58,560 informed of whether the letter arrives tonight or over the 86 00:04:58,560 --> 00:05:01,600 weekend, or whether the deliberation ultimately produces 87 00:05:01,600 --> 00:05:04,360 a rejection of the framework rather than agreement to sign 88 00:05:04,360 --> 00:05:08,080 it, is the specific question around which the entire 71 day 89 00:05:08,080 --> 00:05:10,600 arc of this war is currently suspended waiting. 90 00:05:11,040 --> 00:05:13,840 Iran's Foreign ministry spokesperson's characterization 91 00:05:13,840 --> 00:05:17,920 of the situation, a grotesque absurdity, is its most emphatic 92 00:05:17,920 --> 00:05:21,320 and unambiguous public rejection of the diplomatic framing the 93 00:05:21,320 --> 00:05:23,240 administration has used for the past week. 94 00:05:23,680 --> 00:05:26,680 The specific absurdity the spokesperson identified is the 95 00:05:26,680 --> 00:05:29,520 following contradiction. The United States claims to be 96 00:05:29,520 --> 00:05:33,160 seeking peace, to be working to avoid a nuclear crisis, to be 97 00:05:33,160 --> 00:05:36,320 engaged in a sincere diplomatic process, while the same 98 00:05:36,320 --> 00:05:39,720 president is publicly offering a solution of one big glow as the 99 00:05:39,720 --> 00:05:42,840 stated alternative to a deal. Those two positions, the 100 00:05:42,840 --> 00:05:46,160 spokesperson argued, are impossible to reconcile in a 101 00:05:46,160 --> 00:05:49,920 single coherent foreign policy. You cannot simultaneously 102 00:05:49,920 --> 00:05:52,720 present yourself as a peace seeking power and threaten what 103 00:05:52,720 --> 00:05:56,160 Trump's phrasing evokes, a single catastrophic strike that 104 00:05:56,160 --> 00:06:00,000 produces a visible glow in the same Friday press availability. 105 00:06:00,440 --> 00:06:03,240 Iran's Foreign ministry is using that contradiction to 106 00:06:03,240 --> 00:06:06,280 characterize the American approach not as a genuine peace 107 00:06:06,280 --> 00:06:08,840 offer, but as a coercive ultimatum dressed in the 108 00:06:08,840 --> 00:06:12,480 language of diplomacy. The framework document in this 109 00:06:12,480 --> 00:06:15,480 framing is not an invitation to negotiate. 110 00:06:15,840 --> 00:06:19,480 It is a pressure instrument. Agree to these terms or face the 111 00:06:19,480 --> 00:06:21,600 glow. The grotesque absurdity 112 00:06:21,600 --> 00:06:25,320 formulation is Iran telling its domestic audience, its regional 113 00:06:25,320 --> 00:06:28,160 allies, and the international community that it does not 114 00:06:28,160 --> 00:06:31,520 regard the American approach as a sincere negotiation and that 115 00:06:31,520 --> 00:06:34,120 its response, whatever the letter being discussed might 116 00:06:34,120 --> 00:06:37,480 contain, is being made under duress, not in genuine 117 00:06:37,480 --> 00:06:40,320 partnership. Foreign Minister Arachi's post 118 00:06:40,320 --> 00:06:43,520 on X articulated the historical pattern that underlies the 119 00:06:43,520 --> 00:06:47,160 grotesque absurdity accusation. He wrote that every time a 120 00:06:47,160 --> 00:06:50,320 diplomatic solution is on the table, the US opts for a 121 00:06:50,320 --> 00:06:54,200 reckless military adventure. He said whatever the causes, the 122 00:06:54,200 --> 00:06:57,640 outcome is the same. Iranians never bow to pressure 123 00:06:57,720 --> 00:06:59,720 and diplomacy is always the victim. 124 00:07:00,240 --> 00:07:03,480 That is Iran's official framing of the sequential pattern of 125 00:07:03,480 --> 00:07:07,840 this entire war. The June 20, 2512 day conflict 126 00:07:07,960 --> 00:07:11,120 came after indirect talks failed and Israel struck. 127 00:07:11,640 --> 00:07:15,600 Operation Epic Fury on February 28th came after the pre war 128 00:07:15,600 --> 00:07:20,000 nuclear negotiations broke down. The May 7th CENTCOM strikes came 129 00:07:20,000 --> 00:07:23,520 while proposed framework was actively under Iranian review. 130 00:07:23,960 --> 00:07:27,920 The pattern Arachi describes is talks, then strikes. 131 00:07:28,320 --> 00:07:31,040 And the lesson he says Iran draws from that consistent 132 00:07:31,040 --> 00:07:33,920 pattern is that pressure does not produce concessions from the 133 00:07:33,920 --> 00:07:37,120 Islamic Republic. It produces defiance. 134 00:07:37,560 --> 00:07:40,120 Whether that lesson is the one Common A is applying as he 135 00:07:40,120 --> 00:07:43,080 considers the letter being drafted, or whether the economic 136 00:07:43,080 --> 00:07:46,440 cost of the blockade has finally produced a different calculation 137 00:07:46,440 --> 00:07:49,720 in the governing councils, is what the Friday letter, if it 138 00:07:49,720 --> 00:07:53,320 arrives, will reveal. That framing is Iran's official 139 00:07:53,320 --> 00:07:55,600 public diplomatic posture on Friday. 140 00:07:56,000 --> 00:07:58,480 It's private posture. What is in the letter Trump says 141 00:07:58,480 --> 00:08:01,640 he is expecting is the operative question that the grotesque 142 00:08:01,640 --> 00:08:03,600 absurdity statement does not answer. 143 00:08:04,080 --> 00:08:06,760 The public defiance and the private response have been 144 00:08:06,760 --> 00:08:08,960 different documents throughout this conflict. 145 00:08:09,360 --> 00:08:12,480 Iran's public statements have consistently been more defiant 146 00:08:12,480 --> 00:08:15,120 than its private proposals through the Pakistan channel. 147 00:08:15,680 --> 00:08:18,840 Every proposal Iran has sent through this process, the first 148 00:08:18,840 --> 00:08:22,360 Hormuz opening offer, the revised 2 stage framework, the 149 00:08:22,360 --> 00:08:25,840 14 point counter proposal was preceded and accompanied by 150 00:08:25,840 --> 00:08:28,840 public statements describing the US as untrustworthy. 151 00:08:29,200 --> 00:08:32,360 The talks is held under unacceptable conditions and any 152 00:08:32,360 --> 00:08:34,760 concession as capitulation to an aggressor. 153 00:08:35,159 --> 00:08:38,080 Whether Friday night's expected letter is more consistent with a 154 00:08:38,080 --> 00:08:41,600 grotesque absurdity framing or with a framework that Trump says 155 00:08:41,600 --> 00:08:44,520 Iran has already agreed to is the specific question the 156 00:08:44,520 --> 00:08:47,320 weekend will answer. the US fired on 2. 157 00:08:47,320 --> 00:08:50,720 Iran flagged oil tankers on Friday in separate incidents, 158 00:08:51,000 --> 00:08:54,240 preventing them from docking at Iranian ports in violation of 159 00:08:54,240 --> 00:08:57,040 the naval blockade. Both vessels were attempting to 160 00:08:57,040 --> 00:09:00,160 transit to Iranian ports. Enact the blockades. 161 00:09:00,160 --> 00:09:04,000 Rules of engagement prohibit the ceasefire Trump confirmed 162 00:09:04,200 --> 00:09:06,640 remains in effect after the tanker incidents. 163 00:09:07,080 --> 00:09:09,920 The tanker firings are the blockade performing its design 164 00:09:09,920 --> 00:09:13,040 function, intercepting and turning away ships carrying 165 00:09:13,040 --> 00:09:17,040 cargo to or from Iranian ports. They do not constitute new 166 00:09:17,040 --> 00:09:20,520 offensive strikes against Iranian military infrastructure 167 00:09:20,560 --> 00:09:24,040 in the way Thursday's CENTCOM self-defense strikes did, but 168 00:09:24,040 --> 00:09:27,120 they represent the continued and active operation of maximum 169 00:09:27,120 --> 00:09:29,600 economic pressure. On the same Friday that 170 00:09:29,600 --> 00:09:33,320 diplomatic correspondence is expected to arrive, The 48th, 171 00:09:33,320 --> 00:09:36,920 49th, and 50th ships turned away from Iranian ports since the 172 00:09:36,920 --> 00:09:40,520 blockade began on April 13th are being turned away on the same 173 00:09:40,520 --> 00:09:42,480 day. Rubio is hoping for a serious 174 00:09:42,480 --> 00:09:45,680 Iranian offer. The blockade does not pause for 175 00:09:45,680 --> 00:09:48,600 diplomacy. The economic pressure on Iran's 176 00:09:48,600 --> 00:09:51,280 fiscal position accumulates whether or not the letter 177 00:09:51,280 --> 00:09:55,120 arrives today, whether or not it arrives tomorrow, whether or not 178 00:09:55,120 --> 00:09:57,800 Rubio's hope for a serious offer is fulfilled. 179 00:09:58,160 --> 00:10:00,760 That is, of course, precisely the point. 180 00:10:01,480 --> 00:10:04,400 The blockade is the primary reason the letter is being 181 00:10:04,400 --> 00:10:07,560 written at all. Without the $500 million a day 182 00:10:07,560 --> 00:10:11,520 drain, without the 53,000,000 barrels trapped in tankers in 183 00:10:11,520 --> 00:10:15,720 the Gulf, without the 49 ships turned away, there is no letter. 184 00:10:16,200 --> 00:10:19,600 Trump named the Hormuz guided transit operation on Friday, 185 00:10:19,840 --> 00:10:22,440 revealing it was officially called Project Freedom. 186 00:10:22,880 --> 00:10:25,720 Speaking to reporters as he left the White House for the weekend, 187 00:10:25,720 --> 00:10:28,200 he said. I think Project Freedom is good, 188 00:10:28,440 --> 00:10:30,760 but I think we have other ways of doing it also. 189 00:10:31,320 --> 00:10:34,160 We may go back to Project Freedom if things do not happen, 190 00:10:34,440 --> 00:10:37,960 but it would be Project Freedom Plus, meaning Project Freedom 191 00:10:37,960 --> 00:10:41,240 plus other things. The Plus formulation is Trump's 192 00:10:41,240 --> 00:10:44,000 escalation signal delivered in real time. 193 00:10:44,520 --> 00:10:47,400 Project Freedom. The original Monday operation 194 00:10:47,680 --> 00:10:51,920 involved 15,000 service members, more than 100 aircraft and 195 00:10:51,920 --> 00:10:54,200 guided missile destroyers transiting the Strait. 196 00:10:54,600 --> 00:10:58,200 It was paused on Tuesday evening after triggering Iranian fire 197 00:10:58,440 --> 00:11:01,040 and the CENTCOM self-defense strikes that followed. 198 00:11:01,440 --> 00:11:04,120 Trump is now describing a version that builds on that 199 00:11:04,120 --> 00:11:06,680 foundation, with unspecified additions. 200 00:11:07,120 --> 00:11:09,360 Whether those other things include the Dark Eagle 201 00:11:09,360 --> 00:11:12,200 hypersonic missiles that CENTCOM formally requested for 202 00:11:12,200 --> 00:11:15,440 deployment in early May, expanded Carrier Strike Group 203 00:11:15,440 --> 00:11:19,040 operations, strikes on straight adjacent IRGC shore 204 00:11:19,040 --> 00:11:21,960 installations, or elements of a broader reinstatement of 205 00:11:21,960 --> 00:11:25,040 offensive combat operations is not specified by the Plus 206 00:11:25,040 --> 00:11:28,200 formulation alone. That deliberate vagueness is the 207 00:11:28,200 --> 00:11:31,040 point. Project Freedom Plus is a threat 208 00:11:31,040 --> 00:11:35,000 whose specific contents are not disclosed, which makes it more, 209 00:11:35,120 --> 00:11:37,400 not less, effective as a deterrent. 210 00:11:37,840 --> 00:11:41,520 Iran's military planners must plan against the full range of 211 00:11:41,520 --> 00:11:44,560 what the plus could encompass. They cannot dismiss it as 212 00:11:44,560 --> 00:11:47,920 equivalent to the original Monday operation, which the IRGC 213 00:11:48,200 --> 00:11:51,680 tested and survived at the cost of having military facilities 214 00:11:51,680 --> 00:11:54,560 struck inside Iran in self-defense on Thursday. 215 00:11:55,000 --> 00:11:57,800 The plus is Trump's signal that the next version of the straight 216 00:11:57,800 --> 00:12:01,480 operation, if diplomacy fails to produce the letter he is waiting 217 00:12:01,480 --> 00:12:04,560 for, will be something Iran has not yet experienced in the 218 00:12:04,560 --> 00:12:07,400 current conflict. Trump's Truth Social post on 219 00:12:07,400 --> 00:12:11,120 Thursday described the US military response to Iranian 220 00:12:11,120 --> 00:12:13,920 attacks on the destroyers with characteristic directness. 221 00:12:14,360 --> 00:12:17,680 He wrote that the Iranian drones and missiles dropped ever so 222 00:12:17,800 --> 00:12:20,960 beautifully down to the ocean, very much like a butterfly 223 00:12:20,960 --> 00:12:24,920 dropping to its grave. He said Iran trifle with the US 224 00:12:25,080 --> 00:12:28,160 and described the American response as blowing them away. 225 00:12:28,560 --> 00:12:33,120 He named the three destroyers the USS Rafael Peralta, the USS 226 00:12:33,120 --> 00:12:36,840 Mason, and the third vessel is all confirmed unharmed despite 227 00:12:36,840 --> 00:12:39,640 the Iranian onslaught. He separately praised the 228 00:12:39,640 --> 00:12:43,560 American military's ability to deflect the missiles, drones and 229 00:12:43,560 --> 00:12:45,600 small boat attacks simultaneously. 230 00:12:46,040 --> 00:12:49,280 Then he added what is, taken at face value, a significant 231 00:12:49,280 --> 00:12:52,600 strategic claim about Iranian nuclear intentions. 232 00:12:53,000 --> 00:12:54,960 He wrote. A normal country would have 233 00:12:54,960 --> 00:12:58,800 allowed these destroyers to pass, but Iran is not a normal 234 00:12:58,800 --> 00:13:02,120 country. They are led by lunatics and if 235 00:13:02,120 --> 00:13:04,920 they had the chance to use a nuclear weapon, they would do it 236 00:13:04,920 --> 00:13:08,280 without question. That statement, without question 237 00:13:08,280 --> 00:13:10,880 they would use it. Is Trump publicly articulating 238 00:13:10,880 --> 00:13:14,280 the strategic rationale for the nuclear constraint at the center 239 00:13:14,280 --> 00:13:16,120 of the framework being negotiated. 240 00:13:16,560 --> 00:13:19,200 The entire structure of the proposed agreement, the 241 00:13:19,200 --> 00:13:22,080 moratorium, the stockpile removal, the Furt out 242 00:13:22,080 --> 00:13:25,120 prohibition, the SNAP inspections, is premised on the 243 00:13:25,120 --> 00:13:27,920 belief that an Iran with a nuclear weapon would eventually 244 00:13:27,920 --> 00:13:30,560 use it. Trump is saying that explicit 245 00:13:30,560 --> 00:13:34,760 from the Oval Office and on Truth Social simultaneously, he 246 00:13:34,760 --> 00:13:38,120 warned that the US would knock Iran out a lot harder and a lot 247 00:13:38,120 --> 00:13:41,560 more violently in the future if Iran does not get its deal 248 00:13:41,560 --> 00:13:44,560 signed fast. The sign fast formulation is 249 00:13:44,560 --> 00:13:47,920 Trump's deadline expressed as an imperative rather than a 250 00:13:47,920 --> 00:13:51,240 specific timeline. It is directed at the Iranian 251 00:13:51,240 --> 00:13:54,640 government currently reviewing. The framework letter is also 252 00:13:54,640 --> 00:13:57,240 directed at every news organization and government 253 00:13:57,240 --> 00:14:00,120 watching to ensure that the pressure architecture's message 254 00:14:00,120 --> 00:14:03,720 is received at full force by every audience simultaneously. 255 00:14:04,240 --> 00:14:07,360 That warning sign fast is Trump's timeline pressure 256 00:14:07,360 --> 00:14:10,760 applied directly to the question of what is in Friday's expected 257 00:14:10,760 --> 00:14:13,640 letter. The CENTCOM strikes on Thursday 258 00:14:13,800 --> 00:14:16,320 are the most recent demonstration of what happens 259 00:14:16,320 --> 00:14:19,640 when Iran interferes with U.S. military vessels in the Strait. 260 00:14:20,080 --> 00:14:23,280 The tanker firings on Friday are the blockade at work. 261 00:14:24,000 --> 00:14:26,840 Project Freedom Plus? Is the escalated straight 262 00:14:26,840 --> 00:14:30,160 operation available if the letter does not produce a result 263 00:14:30,640 --> 00:14:33,920 and one big glow remains the in state threat if no deal 264 00:14:33,920 --> 00:14:37,840 materializes that architecture of escalating consequences. 265 00:14:38,120 --> 00:14:41,400 Thursday's self-defense strikes. The Friday blockade tanker 266 00:14:41,400 --> 00:14:44,000 firings, Project Freedom Plus on standby. 267 00:14:44,240 --> 00:14:47,480 One big glow as the terminal option is Trump's pressure 268 00:14:47,480 --> 00:14:50,320 ladder fully extended on the 71st day of the war. 269 00:14:50,720 --> 00:14:54,480 Hezbollah's attack on an Israeli military base on Friday is the 270 00:14:54,480 --> 00:14:57,000 first time the Lebanese organization has publicly 271 00:14:57,000 --> 00:14:59,840 claimed responsibility for a cross-border strike since the 272 00:14:59,840 --> 00:15:02,000 Lebanon ceasefire extension was announced. 273 00:15:02,400 --> 00:15:05,680 Previous ceasefire violations, and now up in hundreds on both 274 00:15:05,680 --> 00:15:09,080 sides, frequently went unattributed or were described 275 00:15:09,080 --> 00:15:11,840 through vague statements about responding to provocation. 276 00:15:12,360 --> 00:15:15,760 Hezbollah publicly claiming this strike by name is a different 277 00:15:15,760 --> 00:15:19,120 kind of communication. It is Hezbollah telling Israel, 278 00:15:19,200 --> 00:15:21,960 the US and the international community that it is operating 279 00:15:21,960 --> 00:15:24,520 under its own rules of engagement regardless of any 280 00:15:24,520 --> 00:15:27,520 ceasefire framework, That its strategic calculation has 281 00:15:27,520 --> 00:15:31,040 changed since Operation Eternal Darkness killed 92 people in 282 00:15:31,040 --> 00:15:34,640 Beirut on Tuesday, and that the Lebanon ceasefire announced 283 00:15:34,680 --> 00:15:38,280 extended shattered by Operation Eternal Darkness is not a 284 00:15:38,280 --> 00:15:40,720 constraint on its military posture. 285 00:15:41,400 --> 00:15:44,320 The State Department announced on Friday that a second round of 286 00:15:44,320 --> 00:15:47,320 Israel Lebanon peace negotiations will be held later 287 00:15:47,320 --> 00:15:49,640 this month. The first round produced the 288 00:15:49,640 --> 00:15:53,080 three-week ceasefire extension that Operation Eternal Darkness 289 00:15:53,080 --> 00:15:56,960 shattered on Tuesday after 11 days, the second round being 290 00:15:56,960 --> 00:15:59,720 announced while Hezbollah is claiming cross-border strikes 291 00:15:59,920 --> 00:16:02,800 and while Israel is conducting daily operations in southern 292 00:16:02,800 --> 00:16:04,840 Lebanon. Is the United States attempting 293 00:16:04,840 --> 00:16:08,040 to reassemble a Lebanon diplomatic architecture even as 294 00:16:08,040 --> 00:16:11,000 both sides demonstrate it has no operational reality? 295 00:16:11,400 --> 00:16:14,160 The State Department described the second round as seeking A 296 00:16:14,160 --> 00:16:17,560 framework for lasting peace, the full restoration of Lebanese 297 00:16:17,560 --> 00:16:20,040 sovereignty, and the delineation of borders. 298 00:16:20,480 --> 00:16:24,840 Those objectives, lasting peace, sovereignty, restoration, border 299 00:16:24,840 --> 00:16:28,120 delineation, are the right long term targets for a Lebanon 300 00:16:28,120 --> 00:16:30,560 settlement. They presuppose conditions that 301 00:16:30,560 --> 00:16:33,680 Operation Eternal Darkness and Hezbollah's Friday strike have 302 00:16:33,680 --> 00:16:36,520 made more rather than less distant in the immediate term, 303 00:16:36,720 --> 00:16:39,280 but which the State Department is correct to pursue as the 304 00:16:39,280 --> 00:16:42,360 eventual architecture of a Lebanon settlement whenever that 305 00:16:42,360 --> 00:16:45,840 settlement becomes achievable. The United States imposed new 306 00:16:45,840 --> 00:16:49,440 sanctions on Chinese entities on Friday for supporting Iran's 307 00:16:49,440 --> 00:16:51,800 military and defense industrial base. 308 00:16:52,240 --> 00:16:55,560 Rubio said the United States will take all necessary action 309 00:16:55,560 --> 00:16:59,400 at its disposal to target third country entities and individuals 310 00:16:59,400 --> 00:17:02,520 aiding Iran's military. Chinese entities that have been 311 00:17:02,520 --> 00:17:05,319 supplying Iran with components and materials throughout the 312 00:17:05,319 --> 00:17:09,800 war, drone parts, avionics, industrial precursors and other 313 00:17:09,800 --> 00:17:12,319 dual use materials are now formally sanctioned by 314 00:17:12,319 --> 00:17:14,560 Washington. The China sanctions are 315 00:17:14,560 --> 00:17:17,680 simultaneously A substantive pressure measure and a 316 00:17:17,680 --> 00:17:20,800 diplomatic signal. Substantively, they are designed 317 00:17:20,800 --> 00:17:23,599 to close the supply chain channels through which Iran has 318 00:17:23,599 --> 00:17:26,520 been partially offsetting the blockades economic impact. 319 00:17:26,960 --> 00:17:29,600 Diplomatically, they are Washington telling Beijing that 320 00:17:29,600 --> 00:17:33,080 supporting Iran's military and defense industrial base during 321 00:17:33,080 --> 00:17:36,720 active nuclear negotiations will be penalized regardless of US 322 00:17:36,720 --> 00:17:39,560 China trade diplomacy happening simultaneously. 323 00:17:40,040 --> 00:17:43,480 Rubio sanctioning China based entities on the same day he is 324 00:17:43,480 --> 00:17:45,520 hoping for a serious Iranian offer. 325 00:17:45,520 --> 00:17:48,400 Is the administration maintaining maximum pressure on 326 00:17:48,440 --> 00:17:52,560 every dimension simultaneously on Iran directly on the blockade 327 00:17:52,880 --> 00:17:55,640 and on the third party networks that have been cushioning Iran's 328 00:17:55,640 --> 00:17:58,280 economic position? The ASEAN summit in the 329 00:17:58,280 --> 00:18:01,640 Philippines adopted A contingency plan on Friday to 330 00:18:01,640 --> 00:18:04,760 mitigate the Iran war's impact on member economies. 331 00:18:05,240 --> 00:18:08,480 The Philippines, among the worst affected by fuel price spikes 332 00:18:08,480 --> 00:18:11,800 caused by the hormones closure, hosted the summit with President 333 00:18:11,800 --> 00:18:15,320 Ferdinand Marcos ordering it stripped of traditional ceremony 334 00:18:15,440 --> 00:18:18,120 in acknowledgement of the economic emergency facing the 335 00:18:18,120 --> 00:18:20,720 region. The contingency plan includes 336 00:18:20,720 --> 00:18:24,160 establishing a regional fuel reserve and coordinating energy 337 00:18:24,160 --> 00:18:27,280 supply alternatives. Southeast Asia's collective 338 00:18:27,280 --> 00:18:30,320 acknowledgement that the Iran war requires a formal regional 339 00:18:30,320 --> 00:18:34,000 economic contingency plan, separate from an additional to 340 00:18:34,080 --> 00:18:37,440 any diplomatic resolution, is a measure of how broadly and 341 00:18:37,440 --> 00:18:40,840 deeply the 71 day conflict has embedded itself in global 342 00:18:40,840 --> 00:18:43,680 economic planning. EU NS Food and Agriculture 343 00:18:43,680 --> 00:18:46,960 Organization separately reported Friday that global cereal 344 00:18:46,960 --> 00:18:50,880 supplies are forecast to hold through 2026, with production 345 00:18:50,880 --> 00:18:54,760 rising 6% year on year, but that the Hormuz closure is driving up 346 00:18:54,760 --> 00:18:58,320 energy and fertilizer costs significantly, adding meaningful 347 00:18:58,320 --> 00:19:01,520 uncertainty to next year's wheat output projections in importing 348 00:19:01,520 --> 00:19:03,840 countries. Day 71. 349 00:19:04,240 --> 00:19:06,840 Rubio expected Iran's response today. 350 00:19:07,280 --> 00:19:09,960 Trump expected a letter supposedly tonight. 351 00:19:10,560 --> 00:19:13,920 Iran's Foreign ministry called it a grotesque absurdity. 352 00:19:14,320 --> 00:19:18,160 Arachi said Iranians never bow to pressure and diplomacy is 353 00:19:18,160 --> 00:19:21,640 always the victim. Two tankers fired on as the 354 00:19:21,640 --> 00:19:26,120 blockade held Project Freedom Plus on standby if things do not 355 00:19:26,120 --> 00:19:29,080 happen. Hezbollah attacked an Israeli 356 00:19:29,080 --> 00:19:32,520 military base, the first publicly claimed cross-border 357 00:19:32,520 --> 00:19:35,280 strike in weeks. The State Department announced 358 00:19:35,280 --> 00:19:38,400 the second round of Israel, Lebanon peace negotiations. 359 00:19:38,840 --> 00:19:42,760 China sanctioned for supporting Iran's defense industrial base. 360 00:19:43,240 --> 00:19:47,880 ASEAN adopted a war economic contingency plan and somewhere a 361 00:19:47,880 --> 00:19:51,600 letter is either on its way to Washington through Pakistan or 362 00:19:51,600 --> 00:19:55,160 it is not 71 days of war have brought the conflict to this 363 00:19:55,160 --> 00:19:57,800 specific moment. A Friday night, a channel in 364 00:19:57,800 --> 00:20:01,440 Islamabad, and a world waiting to find out what is inside the 365 00:20:01,440 --> 00:20:03,720 envelope. If this podcast is helping you 366 00:20:03,720 --> 00:20:07,080 make sense of what's happening, take 2 seconds to leave a five 367 00:20:07,080 --> 00:20:09,640 star rating on Spotify or Apple Podcasts. 368 00:20:10,040 --> 00:20:13,240 It makes a huge difference to how many people find the show. 369 00:20:13,640 --> 00:20:16,040 And if you want the deeper breakdown of what's really going 370 00:20:16,040 --> 00:20:18,880 on and where this is heading, you can unlock the premium 371 00:20:18,880 --> 00:20:22,000 episodes directly in Spotify or Apple Podcasts. 372 00:20:22,360 --> 00:20:27,160 This has been episode 71 of Epic Fury, the US Iran War Podcast, 373 00:20:27,400 --> 00:20:28,880 and we will be back very soon.