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There was a military strike 
against Iran scheduled for 

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today. 
Trump confirmed it publicly on 

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Monday evening by posting on 
Truth Social that he had been 

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asked by the Emir of Qatar, the 
Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, 

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and the President of the United 
Arab Emirates to hold off on a 

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planned military attack against 
Tehran which was scheduled for 

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today, Tuesday, May 19th. 
He said he has instructed 

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Secretary of Defense Pete 
Hegseth and Joint Chiefs 

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Chairman General Daniel Caine 
that the US will not conduct the

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scheduled attack. 
But he also instructed them to 

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be prepared to go forward with a
full, large scale assault of 

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Iran at a moment's notice if an 
acceptable deal is not reached. 

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Iran submitted A revised 14 
point proposal to Pakistan on 

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Monday. 
Iran's Foreign ministry said all

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focus is on ending the war and 
that nuclear matters have not 

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yet been discussed. 
Germany's MERS condemned renewed

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Iranian air strikes against the 
UAE, including a drone strike 

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that caused a fire at an Emirati
nuclear power plant. 

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Iran formally announced the 
Persian Gulf Strait Authority, a

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new body with its own social 
media accounts charged with 

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coordinating fees and transit 
approvals for Hormo's passage, 

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and a Pakistani source told 
Reuters that both sides keep 

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changing their goal posts and 
that they do not have much time.

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It is Tuesday, May 19th, 2026, 
day 81 of Operation Epic Fury, a

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military strike against Iran was
planned for today. 

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Trump confirmed it publicly by 
name. 3 Gulf leaders, the Emir 

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of Qatar, the Crown Prince of 
Saudi Arabia and the President 

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of the UAE asked him to hold off
for two to three days because 

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serious negotiations are 
underway. 

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The military remains prepared 
for a full large scale assault. 

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A moment's notice. 
A revised 14 point Iranian 

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proposal is now in Pakistan's 
hands and has been shared with 

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the US. 
This is episode 81 of Epic Fury,

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the US Iran War podcast. 
Follow on Spotify, an Apple 

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podcast to stay with this story 
as it develops. 

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Let's get into it. 
Begin with Trump's Truth Social 

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post, because it is the most 
operationally consequential 

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single public statement this war
has produced since the ceasefire

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announcement on April 8th, and 
because it confirms, in the 

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president's own words, that a 
specific military strike against

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Iran was scheduled for today, 
Tuesday, May 19th. 

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Trump posted on Monday evening 
on Truth Social. 

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He wrote that he had been asked 
by Qatari Amir Tamim bin Hamad 

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Al Thani, Saudi Crown Prince 
Mohammed bin Salman, and UAE 

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President Mohammed bin Zayed Al 
Nayan to hold off on the planned

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military attack of the Islamic 
Republic of Iran, which was, he 

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specified, explicitly scheduled 
for tomorrow, meaning today, 

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Tuesday, May 19th. 
Speaking to reporters separately

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from the Truth Social post, 
Trump said he put the attack off

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for a little while. 
Hopefully maybe forever, but 

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possibly for a little while 
because the US has had very big 

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discussions with Iran and will 
see what they amount to that 

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formulation. 
Hopefully, maybe forever is the 

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specific phrase that captures 
the full uncertainty of Day 81. 

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The postponement could be the 
beginning of a deal or it could 

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be a 2 day delay before the full
large scale assault Hegseth and 

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Cain have been instructed to be 
ready for. 

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He described the request as 
motivated by the fact that 

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serious negotiations are now 
taking place and that in their 

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opinion, a deal will be made 
that will be very acceptable to 

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the United States and all 
countries in the Middle East and

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beyond. 
He wrote that the deal will 

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include in his own 
capitalization and own nuclear 

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weapons for Iran, and he wrote 
that based on his respect for 

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those 3 leaders, he has 
instructed Hegseth, General Kane

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and the US military that they 
will not be conducting the 

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scheduled attack today. 
Trump told the New York Post on 

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Monday that he is not open to 
making any concessions for Iran.

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He added that Iran wants to make
a deal more than ever because he

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said they know what is going to 
be happening soon. 

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That phrase is Trump describing 
the forthcoming military action 

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as already known to Iran through
the negotiations channel and is 

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imminent. 
He then added the sentence in 

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his Truth Social post that 
preserves the threat with 

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maximal clarity. 
But he has further instructed 

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them to be prepared to go 
forward with a full large scale 

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assault of Iran on a moment's 
notice in the event that an 

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acceptable deal is not reached. 
That sentence is the one that 

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gives the postponement. 
Its specific character is not a 

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suspension of the military 
option. 

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It is a delay of hours or days 
with a full military option 

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placed explicitly on hair 
trigger readiness. 

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Hegseth and General Kane, name 
by title and name. 

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Instructions issued. 
Moments notice specified. 

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That post contains more 
confirmed information about the 

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operational state of this war on
Day 81 than entire preceding 

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week of reporting combined. 
Confirmed there was a specific 

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planned military attack against 
Iran scheduled for Tuesday. 

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Not a contingency. 
Not a planning exercise. 

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A scheduled operation that Trump
has now publicly acknowledged by

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name. 
The scheduled attack of Iran 

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tomorrow and called off by 
posting about it on social 

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media. 
Confirmed 3 Gulf state leaders 

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directly asked Trump to delay 
the scheduled attack. 

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Not anonymous officials. 
Not back channel requests 

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through Pakistan. 
Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, 

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Mohammed bin Salman and Mohammed
bin Zayed al Nayan, the three 

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most powerful leaders in the 
Gulf, called Trump directly, 

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individually and asked him to 
hold off. 

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Confirm. 
Those 3 leaders believe a deal 

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will be made that is very 
acceptable to the United States 

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and to all countries in the 
Middle East and beyond. 

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They are not asking for an 
indefinite delay, they are 

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asking for two or three days 
because in their view, the 

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negotiations currently underway 
are serious and a satisfactory 

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agreement is within reach. 
Confirmed the US military is at 

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full large scale assault 
readiness at a moment's notice. 

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Trump specifically named the 
Defense Secretary and the Joint 

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Chiefs chairman by name and 
title as the recipients of both 

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the postponement instruction and
the moment's notice preparation 

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order, giving the Readiness 
Command its maximum 

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institutional clarity and public
specificity. 

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Both conditions are 
simultaneously active. 

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No attack today and full large 
scale assault readiness 

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maintained on a moment's notice.
If no acceptable deal 

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materializes within the short 
window the Gulf leaders have 

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asked Trump to grant. 
Confirmed the deal must include 

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no nuclear weapons for Iran. 
Trump capitalized it in his 

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post, making it the one non 
negotiable element he chose to 

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explicitly highlight at the 
moment of a postponement he 

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framed as a gesture of respect 
to allied leaders. 

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The disclosure that 3 Gulf 
leaders asked for the delay is 

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significant well beyond its 
immediate diplomatic meaning. 

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Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE 
are not neutral actors in this 

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war. 
They are US allies who have been

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on the receiving end of Iranian 
missiles and drones since the 

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first night of Operation Epic 
Fury. 

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They have hosted U.S. military 
assets, intelligence operations 

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and logistics infrastructure 
across all 81 days of the 

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conflict. 
The UAE had its nuclear power 

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plant struck by an Iranian drone
at the weekend. 

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Saudi Arabia's oil 
infrastructure has been targeted

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repeatedly throughout the war. 
Qatar hosts Al Udiyid Air Base, 

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the largest US forward air base 
in the Middle East, an 

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operational hub for the entire 
campaign since February 28th. 

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These are not distant third 
parties pleading for de 

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escalation from a position of 
theoretical concern. 

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These are the governments whose 
territory has been under Iranian

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fire, whose leaders have been 
managing the war's daily 

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regional consequences, and who 
have supported the US military 

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campaign throughout. 
When those 3 governments 

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collectively call Trump and 
asking to hold off on a schedule

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attack, they are not asking for 
Iran's sake. 

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They're asking because they 
believe the specific proposal 

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Iran has now put forward through
Pakistan is substantively 

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serious enough that bombing Iran
on Tuesday would destroy a deal 

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that is genuinely within reach. 
That is an entirely different 

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kind of diplomatic intervention 
from anything that has happened 

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in the ceasefire period. 
Pakistan's request for the 

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original April 8th ceasefire 
bought 41 days of diplomatic 

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process and proposal exchange 
that produced 2 mutual proposal 

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rejections and no conclusive 
result. 

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Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE 
is Monday request is targeted, 

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credible in its sourcing and 
comes with a specific time 

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framing, two or three days, not 
an indefinite pause. 

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Not until further notice from 
Tehran, a specifically bounded 

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short period of time because 
those 3 governments believe the 

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negotiations are at a genuinely 
decisive juncture. 

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That assessment from three 
directly affected governments 

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the deal is close enough to 
justify two or three days more 

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is the most specific and 
credible positive diplomatic 

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signal the public record has 
produced since the ceasefire 

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began 41 days ago. 
It is also the single most 

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consequential diplomatic 
intervention of the entire 41 

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day ceasefire period. 
It comes not from the Pakistan 

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channel, not from anonymous 
officials and background 

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briefings, not from Arachi on X,
but from three Heads of 

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Government who are directly 
affected by this war, who have 

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their own intelligence services 
monitoring the negotiations, and

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who have direct access to the 
negotiating party sufficient to 

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assess what Iran's revised 
proposal actually contains. 

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When the Emir of Qatar, the 
Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia and

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the UA ES President collectively
tell Trump to hold off because 

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serious negotiations are taking 
place and a deal will be made, 

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they are staking their 
credibility on that assessment 

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simultaneously and collectively.
The revised 14 point proposal 

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Iran submitted through Pakistan 
on Monday is the specific 

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document that triggered the Gulf
state intervention. 

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Iran's semi official Tis Name 
news agency reported on Monday 

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that Iran delivered a revised 14
point proposal to Pakistani 

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mediators. 
Pakistan shared the revised 

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proposal with US 
representatives, A Pakistani 

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source confirmed to Reuters. 
The proposal is the most recent 

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Iranian written communication to
Washington and the document the 

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Gulf states believe is serious 
enough to have warranted their 

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intervention, Iran's foreign 
ministry spokesperson said. 

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Tehran is committed to 
continuing efforts in that and 

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this formulation deserves 
careful attention. 

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All focus at this stage is on 
ending the war. 

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He added that Tehran has not yet
discussed any details regarding 

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nuclear matters. 
The phrase not yet is 

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significant. 
It is different from Iran's 

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previous formulations which 
either avoided the nuclear 

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question or asserted Iran's non 
proliferation treaty rights as a

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reason not to discuss it. 
Not yet. 

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Is Iran sequencing the nuclear 
question warranting framework 

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first Nuclear matters after that
sequencing is not the same as 

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refusing the nuclear question. 
It is Iran saying the nuclear 

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discussion is coming but asking 
for the war to stop being the 

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context in which that discussion
must happen. 

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Whether Washington accepts that 
sequencing in the war first 

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discuss nuclear matters in a 
subsequent phase is the specific

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and central tension the revised 
proposal must resolve. 

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Trump capitalized and own 
nuclear weapons for Iran in his 

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Truth Social post, making it the
single element he chose to 

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specifically highlight at the 
moment of the postponement. the 

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US position throughout the 
proposal exchange has been that 

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the nuclear question and the war
ending framework are not 

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separable. 
Iran cannot get an end to the 

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war in exchange for a war ending
framework alone, but Iran is 

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asking to treat them as 
sequential war ending framework 

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first, nuclear matters addressed
in a subsequent phase once 

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hostilities have ceased, the 
Pakistani sources Reuters quote.

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Both sides keep changing their 
goal posts and there is not much

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time is the mediation channels 
own assessment of the process 

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expressed more directly than at 
any previous point. 

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Both sides is not a diplomatic 
politeness. 

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It is Pakistan's honest 
intermediary assessment that 

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neither the US nor Iran has been
holding a consistent and 

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reliable negotiating position 
across the weeks of the proposal

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exchange. 
The goal posts move, both of 

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them move, and not much time is 
not solely Trump's warning. 

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Is Pakistan's own mediator 
assessment, based on direct 

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contact with both governments, 
that the window between a Monday

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postponement and a decision to 
proceed is being measured in 

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days rather than weeks? 
Both parties need to produce a 

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fixed final written position. 
That is the specific ask. 

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The next 48 to 72 hours will 
either satisfy, in which case 

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the war ends, or not, in which 
case the assault proceeds. 

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The Iran drone strike on the UAE
nuclear power plant is the most 

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00:12:54,160 --> 00:12:57,600
escalatory single Iranian action
of the ceasefire period. 

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A drone struck a facility at the
Baraka nuclear power plant site 

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00:13:01,840 --> 00:13:05,360
in the UAE over the weekend, 
causing a fire and temporary 

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alarm among regional 
authorities. 

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Baraka is the first commercial 
nuclear power plant in the Arab 

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00:13:11,040 --> 00:13:13,960
world built in a joint 
arrangement between the UAE, 

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00:13:13,960 --> 00:13:17,920
Zenec and Korea Electric Power 
Corporation and facility, whose 

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00:13:17,920 --> 00:13:21,040
safety authorities had declared 
radiation levels normal and 

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00:13:21,040 --> 00:13:23,200
operations unaffected following 
the fire. 

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It is the kind of target whose 
selection carries unmistakable 

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00:13:26,800 --> 00:13:30,320
strategic messaging. 
Iran striking a nuclear facility

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00:13:30,320 --> 00:13:34,480
in AUS, allied Gulf state days 
before a scheduled U.S. military

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00:13:34,480 --> 00:13:37,640
strike against Iran's own 
obliterated nuclear sites. 

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00:13:38,040 --> 00:13:40,840
Germany's Chancellor MERS 
condemned renewed Iranian 

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00:13:40,840 --> 00:13:44,240
airstrikes against the UAE and 
other partners on Monday and 

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00:13:44,240 --> 00:13:46,800
said attacks on nuclear 
facilities pose a threat to the 

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00:13:46,800 --> 00:13:49,200
safety of people throughout the 
entire region. 

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00:13:49,680 --> 00:13:53,000
His statement positioned Germany
firmly alongside the UAE in 

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00:13:53,000 --> 00:13:55,920
condemning the strike and called
on Iran to enter serious 

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00:13:55,920 --> 00:13:59,240
negotiations, stop threatening 
its neighbors and open the 

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00:13:59,240 --> 00:14:02,360
Strait of Hormuz without 
restrictions, language virtually

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00:14:02,360 --> 00:14:06,640
identical to the US position. 
Iran has not claimed the Baraka 

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00:14:06,640 --> 00:14:09,080
strike. 
That is consistent with IRGC 

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00:14:09,320 --> 00:14:12,000
pattern. 
Major escalatory actions against

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00:14:12,000 --> 00:14:15,280
Gulf infrastructure are often 
not publicly claimed to preserve

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00:14:15,280 --> 00:14:18,760
deniability and to manage the 
ceasefire violation question. 

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00:14:19,280 --> 00:14:23,160
But Iran also did not deny the 
strike or offer any alternative 

258
00:14:23,160 --> 00:14:25,840
explanation for the fire. 
Whether the strike was 

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00:14:25,840 --> 00:14:29,160
authorized to the highest levels
of Iran's governing structure or

260
00:14:29,160 --> 00:14:32,680
was conducted by more autonomous
IRGC element that the civilian 

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00:14:32,680 --> 00:14:35,760
diplomatic track may not have 
fully controlled is the question

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00:14:35,760 --> 00:14:38,520
of the sequencing. 
Drone strike on UE nuclear 

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00:14:38,520 --> 00:14:40,920
facility. 
Then Gulf leaders call Trump to 

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00:14:40,920 --> 00:14:43,800
hold off the US military strike 
makes urgent. 

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00:14:44,280 --> 00:14:47,720
Oil prices rose and stock 
markets fell broadly on Monday. 

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00:14:48,160 --> 00:14:52,360
Market analysts describe the 
situation in a single phrase re 

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00:14:52,360 --> 00:14:55,240
escalation risks are increasing,
not decreasing. 

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00:14:55,680 --> 00:14:58,600
The war has now produced what 
they describe as the largest 

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00:14:58,600 --> 00:15:01,760
single oil supply disruption in 
the history of the global 

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00:15:01,760 --> 00:15:04,640
market. 
Petrol prices in the US remain 

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00:15:04,640 --> 00:15:08,400
at 445 per gallon. 
The economic cost of the United 

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00:15:08,400 --> 00:15:11,600
States has exceeded 10s of 
billions of dollars since the 

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00:15:11,600 --> 00:15:15,680
war began on February 28th. 
The 81st day's oil market 

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00:15:15,680 --> 00:15:19,560
reaction reflects the specific 
uncertainty of a military strike

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00:15:19,640 --> 00:15:23,120
postponed by 48 to 72 hours 
rather than cancelled. 

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00:15:23,560 --> 00:15:27,040
Markets are pricing in a 
probability, not certainty and 

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00:15:27,040 --> 00:15:30,240
not absence, but a credible and 
near term conditional. 

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00:15:30,840 --> 00:15:33,840
Iran formally announced the 
Persian Gulf Straight Authority 

279
00:15:33,840 --> 00:15:36,520
on Monday with a dedicated 
account on X. 

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00:15:36,920 --> 00:15:39,840
The authorities stated purpose 
is to coordinate with commercial

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00:15:39,840 --> 00:15:43,080
shipping companies, collect 
transit fees and provide 

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00:15:43,080 --> 00:15:45,120
information on its activities in
the Strait. 

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00:15:45,560 --> 00:15:48,760
Iran's Foreign ministry 
simultaneously said Tehran is in

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00:15:48,760 --> 00:15:52,160
continuous contact with Oman, 
the only other coastal state 

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00:15:52,160 --> 00:15:55,800
bordering the Strait, to develop
a transit mechanism, with expert

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00:15:55,800 --> 00:15:59,040
level delegations from Iran and 
Oman having already met in 

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00:15:59,040 --> 00:16:02,000
Muscat the previous week to 
begin work on the operational 

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00:16:02,000 --> 00:16:05,160
details. 
The PGSA establishment is Iran 

289
00:16:05,160 --> 00:16:08,520
institutionalizing what Azizi 
announced on Saturday and 

290
00:16:08,520 --> 00:16:11,000
Lloyd's List confirmed was 
already operational. 

291
00:16:11,280 --> 00:16:14,280
A formal commercial governance 
body for the Straight with its 

292
00:16:14,280 --> 00:16:17,160
own name, mandate and public 
facing communications 

293
00:16:17,160 --> 00:16:20,200
infrastructure. 
The Straight is no longer just 

294
00:16:20,200 --> 00:16:23,520
militarily closed, is now 
governed by an Iranian 

295
00:16:23,520 --> 00:16:26,320
institution with a formal 
charter and a registered 

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00:16:26,320 --> 00:16:28,240
presence on international 
platforms. 

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00:16:28,680 --> 00:16:31,880
Bloomberg reported on Monday 
that almost two dozen tankers 

298
00:16:31,880 --> 00:16:35,240
were sitting in and around Karg 
Island, Iran's primary oil 

299
00:16:35,240 --> 00:16:38,000
export terminal, and that the 
regime had already been using 

300
00:16:38,000 --> 00:16:41,400
the island as a tolling stop for
weeks before the formal PGSA 

301
00:16:41,400 --> 00:16:43,880
announcement. 
That number of tankers anchored 

302
00:16:43,880 --> 00:16:48,000
around Karg Island represents 
Iranian oil export capacity 

303
00:16:48,240 --> 00:16:51,360
physically trapped on the 
Iranian side of the US blockade.

304
00:16:51,760 --> 00:16:55,000
These are tankers loaded with 
Iranian crude that cannot exit 

305
00:16:55,000 --> 00:16:57,640
to Chinese buyers because of the
US blockades. 

306
00:16:57,640 --> 00:16:59,920
Enforcement around Iran's port 
approaches. 

307
00:17:00,360 --> 00:17:03,360
They are accumulating at Carg 
Island, the parking lot within 

308
00:17:03,360 --> 00:17:05,760
the parking lot. 
While the conflict that produced

309
00:17:05,760 --> 00:17:08,680
the impasse moves toward a 
decision point measured in days,

310
00:17:09,079 --> 00:17:12,000
the PGS as formal Monday 
announcement, gives the toll 

311
00:17:12,000 --> 00:17:15,040
operation and institutional 
identity, a public 

312
00:17:15,040 --> 00:17:18,440
communications platform and the 
beginning of international legal

313
00:17:18,440 --> 00:17:20,720
standing. 
It is Iran asserting that this 

314
00:17:20,720 --> 00:17:24,079
is not a wartime improvisation 
that ends with a conflict does 

315
00:17:24,079 --> 00:17:27,240
It is a permanent institution 
with a mandate that is designed 

316
00:17:27,240 --> 00:17:29,880
to outlast the current 
negotiations, whatever they 

317
00:17:29,880 --> 00:17:33,640
produce. 
Day 81-A strike was scheduled 

318
00:17:33,640 --> 00:17:36,120
for today. 
Trump confirmed it publicly by 

319
00:17:36,120 --> 00:17:40,200
name on Truth Social 3. 
Gulf leaders asked Trump to hold

320
00:17:40,200 --> 00:17:43,640
off by two to three days because
serious negotiations are 

321
00:17:43,640 --> 00:17:46,360
underway and in their view a 
deal is coming. 

322
00:17:46,880 --> 00:17:50,440
The military is prepared for a 
full large scale assault at a 

323
00:17:50,440 --> 00:17:53,320
moment's notice if no acceptable
deal is reached. 

324
00:17:53,720 --> 00:17:57,560
Iran submitted A revised 14 
point proposal through Pakistan 

325
00:17:57,560 --> 00:18:01,040
on Monday and Pakistan shared it
with US representatives. 

326
00:18:01,480 --> 00:18:04,440
Iran said nuclear matters have 
not yet been discussed. 

327
00:18:04,680 --> 00:18:08,360
All focus at this stage is on 
ending the war, a Pakistani 

328
00:18:08,360 --> 00:18:11,840
mediator told Reuters directly. 
Both sides keep changing their 

329
00:18:11,840 --> 00:18:14,200
goal posts and there's not much 
time left. 

330
00:18:14,640 --> 00:18:18,400
Iran struck the UAE Baraka 
nuclear power plant with a drone

331
00:18:18,400 --> 00:18:21,760
over the weekend, causing a fire
at the Arab world's first 

332
00:18:21,760 --> 00:18:25,600
commercial nuclear facility. 
The PGSA was formally announced 

333
00:18:25,600 --> 00:18:29,640
on Monday with its own X 
account, an Oman partnership and

334
00:18:29,640 --> 00:18:32,160
a mandate to collect Hormuz 
transit fees. 

335
00:18:32,560 --> 00:18:35,800
Nearly two dozen tankers are 
anchored at Karg Island. 

336
00:18:36,280 --> 00:18:39,000
The next two to three days may 
determine whether this war ends 

337
00:18:39,000 --> 00:18:42,520
with a deal or continues into 
the full large scale assault 

338
00:18:42,520 --> 00:18:44,040
that 3 Gulf leaders. 
Monday. 

339
00:18:44,040 --> 00:18:47,280
Phone calls postponed by 48 to 
72 hours. 

340
00:18:47,680 --> 00:18:50,400
If this podcast is helping you 
make sense of what's happening, 

341
00:18:50,720 --> 00:18:54,200
take 2 seconds to leave a five 
star rating on Spotify or Apple 

342
00:18:54,200 --> 00:18:57,040
Podcasts. 
It makes a huge difference to 

343
00:18:57,040 --> 00:18:59,920
how many people find the show 
and if you want the deeper 

344
00:18:59,920 --> 00:19:02,720
breakdown of what's really going
on and where this is heading, 

345
00:19:03,000 --> 00:19:06,320
you can unlock the premium 
episodes directly in Spotify or 

346
00:19:06,320 --> 00:19:09,960
Apple Podcasts. 
This has been episode 81 of Epic

347
00:19:09,960 --> 00:19:14,640
Fury, the US Iran war podcast. 
The next two to three days may 

348
00:19:14,640 --> 00:19:17,800
be the most consequential this 
war has produced since February 

349
00:19:17,800 --> 00:19:20,640
28th. 
They may also be the last days 

350
00:19:20,640 --> 00:19:23,680
of active hostilities in this 81
day conflict. 

351
00:19:24,120 --> 00:19:25,800
We will be back very soon.