There was a military strike against Iran scheduled for
today. Trump confirmed it publicly on
Monday evening by posting on Truth Social that he had been
asked by the Emir of Qatar, the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia,
and the President of the United Arab Emirates to hold off on a
planned military attack against Tehran which was scheduled for
today, Tuesday, May 19th. He said he has instructed
Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth and Joint Chiefs
Chairman General Daniel Caine that the US will not conduct the
scheduled attack. But he also instructed them to
be prepared to go forward with a full, large scale assault of
Iran at a moment's notice if an acceptable deal is not reached.
Iran submitted A revised 14 point proposal to Pakistan on
Monday. Iran's Foreign ministry said all
focus is on ending the war and that nuclear matters have not
yet been discussed. Germany's MERS condemned renewed
Iranian air strikes against the UAE, including a drone strike
that caused a fire at an Emirati nuclear power plant.
Iran formally announced the Persian Gulf Strait Authority, a
new body with its own social media accounts charged with
coordinating fees and transit approvals for Hormo's passage,
and a Pakistani source told Reuters that both sides keep
changing their goal posts and that they do not have much time.
It is Tuesday, May 19th, 2026, day 81 of Operation Epic Fury, a
military strike against Iran was planned for today.
Trump confirmed it publicly by name. 3 Gulf leaders, the Emir
of Qatar, the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia and the President
of the UAE asked him to hold off for two to three days because
serious negotiations are underway.
The military remains prepared for a full large scale assault.
A moment's notice. A revised 14 point Iranian
proposal is now in Pakistan's hands and has been shared with
the US. This is episode 81 of Epic Fury,
the US Iran War podcast. Follow on Spotify, an Apple
podcast to stay with this story as it develops.
Let's get into it. Begin with Trump's Truth Social
post, because it is the most operationally consequential
single public statement this war has produced since the ceasefire
announcement on April 8th, and because it confirms, in the
president's own words, that a specific military strike against
Iran was scheduled for today, Tuesday, May 19th.
Trump posted on Monday evening on Truth Social.
He wrote that he had been asked by Qatari Amir Tamim bin Hamad
Al Thani, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, and UAE
President Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nayan to hold off on the planned
military attack of the Islamic Republic of Iran, which was, he
specified, explicitly scheduled for tomorrow, meaning today,
Tuesday, May 19th. Speaking to reporters separately
from the Truth Social post, Trump said he put the attack off
for a little while. Hopefully maybe forever, but
possibly for a little while because the US has had very big
discussions with Iran and will see what they amount to that
formulation. Hopefully, maybe forever is the
specific phrase that captures the full uncertainty of Day 81.
The postponement could be the beginning of a deal or it could
be a 2 day delay before the full large scale assault Hegseth and
Cain have been instructed to be ready for.
He described the request as motivated by the fact that
serious negotiations are now taking place and that in their
opinion, a deal will be made that will be very acceptable to
the United States and all countries in the Middle East and
beyond. He wrote that the deal will
include in his own capitalization and own nuclear
weapons for Iran, and he wrote that based on his respect for
those 3 leaders, he has instructed Hegseth, General Kane
and the US military that they will not be conducting the
scheduled attack today. Trump told the New York Post on
Monday that he is not open to making any concessions for Iran.
He added that Iran wants to make a deal more than ever because he
said they know what is going to be happening soon.
That phrase is Trump describing the forthcoming military action
as already known to Iran through the negotiations channel and is
imminent. He then added the sentence in
his Truth Social post that preserves the threat with
maximal clarity. But he has further instructed
them to be prepared to go forward with a full large scale
assault of Iran on a moment's notice in the event that an
acceptable deal is not reached. That sentence is the one that
gives the postponement. Its specific character is not a
suspension of the military option.
It is a delay of hours or days with a full military option
placed explicitly on hair trigger readiness.
Hegseth and General Kane, name by title and name.
Instructions issued. Moments notice specified.
That post contains more confirmed information about the
operational state of this war on Day 81 than entire preceding
week of reporting combined. Confirmed there was a specific
planned military attack against Iran scheduled for Tuesday.
Not a contingency. Not a planning exercise.
A scheduled operation that Trump has now publicly acknowledged by
name. The scheduled attack of Iran
tomorrow and called off by posting about it on social
media. Confirmed 3 Gulf state leaders
directly asked Trump to delay the scheduled attack.
Not anonymous officials. Not back channel requests
through Pakistan. Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani,
Mohammed bin Salman and Mohammed bin Zayed al Nayan, the three
most powerful leaders in the Gulf, called Trump directly,
individually and asked him to hold off.
Confirm. Those 3 leaders believe a deal
will be made that is very acceptable to the United States
and to all countries in the Middle East and beyond.
They are not asking for an indefinite delay, they are
asking for two or three days because in their view, the
negotiations currently underway are serious and a satisfactory
agreement is within reach. Confirmed the US military is at
full large scale assault readiness at a moment's notice.
Trump specifically named the Defense Secretary and the Joint
Chiefs chairman by name and title as the recipients of both
the postponement instruction and the moment's notice preparation
order, giving the Readiness Command its maximum
institutional clarity and public specificity.
Both conditions are simultaneously active.
No attack today and full large scale assault readiness
maintained on a moment's notice. If no acceptable deal
materializes within the short window the Gulf leaders have
asked Trump to grant. Confirmed the deal must include
no nuclear weapons for Iran. Trump capitalized it in his
post, making it the one non negotiable element he chose to
explicitly highlight at the moment of a postponement he
framed as a gesture of respect to allied leaders.
The disclosure that 3 Gulf leaders asked for the delay is
significant well beyond its immediate diplomatic meaning.
Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE are not neutral actors in this
war. They are US allies who have been
on the receiving end of Iranian missiles and drones since the
first night of Operation Epic Fury.
They have hosted U.S. military assets, intelligence operations
and logistics infrastructure across all 81 days of the
conflict. The UAE had its nuclear power
plant struck by an Iranian drone at the weekend.
Saudi Arabia's oil infrastructure has been targeted
repeatedly throughout the war. Qatar hosts Al Udiyid Air Base,
the largest US forward air base in the Middle East, an
operational hub for the entire campaign since February 28th.
These are not distant third parties pleading for de
escalation from a position of theoretical concern.
These are the governments whose territory has been under Iranian
fire, whose leaders have been managing the war's daily
regional consequences, and who have supported the US military
campaign throughout. When those 3 governments
collectively call Trump and asking to hold off on a schedule
attack, they are not asking for Iran's sake.
They're asking because they believe the specific proposal
Iran has now put forward through Pakistan is substantively
serious enough that bombing Iran on Tuesday would destroy a deal
that is genuinely within reach. That is an entirely different
kind of diplomatic intervention from anything that has happened
in the ceasefire period. Pakistan's request for the
original April 8th ceasefire bought 41 days of diplomatic
process and proposal exchange that produced 2 mutual proposal
rejections and no conclusive result.
Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE is Monday request is targeted,
credible in its sourcing and comes with a specific time
framing, two or three days, not an indefinite pause.
Not until further notice from Tehran, a specifically bounded
short period of time because those 3 governments believe the
negotiations are at a genuinely decisive juncture.
That assessment from three directly affected governments
the deal is close enough to justify two or three days more
is the most specific and credible positive diplomatic
signal the public record has produced since the ceasefire
began 41 days ago. It is also the single most
consequential diplomatic intervention of the entire 41
day ceasefire period. It comes not from the Pakistan
channel, not from anonymous officials and background
briefings, not from Arachi on X, but from three Heads of
Government who are directly affected by this war, who have
their own intelligence services monitoring the negotiations, and
who have direct access to the negotiating party sufficient to
assess what Iran's revised proposal actually contains.
When the Emir of Qatar, the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia and
the UA ES President collectively tell Trump to hold off because
serious negotiations are taking place and a deal will be made,
they are staking their credibility on that assessment
simultaneously and collectively. The revised 14 point proposal
Iran submitted through Pakistan on Monday is the specific
document that triggered the Gulf state intervention.
Iran's semi official Tis Name news agency reported on Monday
that Iran delivered a revised 14 point proposal to Pakistani
mediators. Pakistan shared the revised
proposal with US representatives, A Pakistani
source confirmed to Reuters. The proposal is the most recent
Iranian written communication to Washington and the document the
Gulf states believe is serious enough to have warranted their
intervention, Iran's foreign ministry spokesperson said.
Tehran is committed to continuing efforts in that and
this formulation deserves careful attention.
All focus at this stage is on ending the war.
He added that Tehran has not yet discussed any details regarding
nuclear matters. The phrase not yet is
significant. It is different from Iran's
previous formulations which either avoided the nuclear
question or asserted Iran's non proliferation treaty rights as a
reason not to discuss it. Not yet.
Is Iran sequencing the nuclear question warranting framework
first Nuclear matters after that sequencing is not the same as
refusing the nuclear question. It is Iran saying the nuclear
discussion is coming but asking for the war to stop being the
context in which that discussion must happen.
Whether Washington accepts that sequencing in the war first
discuss nuclear matters in a subsequent phase is the specific
and central tension the revised proposal must resolve.
Trump capitalized and own nuclear weapons for Iran in his
Truth Social post, making it the single element he chose to
specifically highlight at the moment of the postponement. the
US position throughout the proposal exchange has been that
the nuclear question and the war ending framework are not
separable. Iran cannot get an end to the
war in exchange for a war ending framework alone, but Iran is
asking to treat them as sequential war ending framework
first, nuclear matters addressed in a subsequent phase once
hostilities have ceased, the Pakistani sources Reuters quote.
Both sides keep changing their goal posts and there is not much
time is the mediation channels own assessment of the process
expressed more directly than at any previous point.
Both sides is not a diplomatic politeness.
It is Pakistan's honest intermediary assessment that
neither the US nor Iran has been holding a consistent and
reliable negotiating position across the weeks of the proposal
exchange. The goal posts move, both of
them move, and not much time is not solely Trump's warning.
Is Pakistan's own mediator assessment, based on direct
contact with both governments, that the window between a Monday
postponement and a decision to proceed is being measured in
days rather than weeks? Both parties need to produce a
fixed final written position. That is the specific ask.
The next 48 to 72 hours will either satisfy, in which case
the war ends, or not, in which case the assault proceeds.
The Iran drone strike on the UAE nuclear power plant is the most
escalatory single Iranian action of the ceasefire period.
A drone struck a facility at the Baraka nuclear power plant site
in the UAE over the weekend, causing a fire and temporary
alarm among regional authorities.
Baraka is the first commercial nuclear power plant in the Arab
world built in a joint arrangement between the UAE,
Zenec and Korea Electric Power Corporation and facility, whose
safety authorities had declared radiation levels normal and
operations unaffected following the fire.
It is the kind of target whose selection carries unmistakable
strategic messaging. Iran striking a nuclear facility
in AUS, allied Gulf state days before a scheduled U.S. military
strike against Iran's own obliterated nuclear sites.
Germany's Chancellor MERS condemned renewed Iranian
airstrikes against the UAE and other partners on Monday and
said attacks on nuclear facilities pose a threat to the
safety of people throughout the entire region.
His statement positioned Germany firmly alongside the UAE in
condemning the strike and called on Iran to enter serious
negotiations, stop threatening its neighbors and open the
Strait of Hormuz without restrictions, language virtually
identical to the US position. Iran has not claimed the Baraka
strike. That is consistent with IRGC
pattern. Major escalatory actions against
Gulf infrastructure are often not publicly claimed to preserve
deniability and to manage the ceasefire violation question.
But Iran also did not deny the strike or offer any alternative
explanation for the fire. Whether the strike was
authorized to the highest levels of Iran's governing structure or
was conducted by more autonomous IRGC element that the civilian
diplomatic track may not have fully controlled is the question
of the sequencing. Drone strike on UE nuclear
facility. Then Gulf leaders call Trump to
hold off the US military strike makes urgent.
Oil prices rose and stock markets fell broadly on Monday.
Market analysts describe the situation in a single phrase re
escalation risks are increasing, not decreasing.
The war has now produced what they describe as the largest
single oil supply disruption in the history of the global
market. Petrol prices in the US remain
at 445 per gallon. The economic cost of the United
States has exceeded 10s of billions of dollars since the
war began on February 28th. The 81st day's oil market
reaction reflects the specific uncertainty of a military strike
postponed by 48 to 72 hours rather than cancelled.
Markets are pricing in a probability, not certainty and
not absence, but a credible and near term conditional.
Iran formally announced the Persian Gulf Straight Authority
on Monday with a dedicated account on X.
The authorities stated purpose is to coordinate with commercial
shipping companies, collect transit fees and provide
information on its activities in the Strait.
Iran's Foreign ministry simultaneously said Tehran is in
continuous contact with Oman, the only other coastal state
bordering the Strait, to develop a transit mechanism, with expert
level delegations from Iran and Oman having already met in
Muscat the previous week to begin work on the operational
details. The PGSA establishment is Iran
institutionalizing what Azizi announced on Saturday and
Lloyd's List confirmed was already operational.
A formal commercial governance body for the Straight with its
own name, mandate and public facing communications
infrastructure. The Straight is no longer just
militarily closed, is now governed by an Iranian
institution with a formal charter and a registered
presence on international platforms.
Bloomberg reported on Monday that almost two dozen tankers
were sitting in and around Karg Island, Iran's primary oil
export terminal, and that the regime had already been using
the island as a tolling stop for weeks before the formal PGSA
announcement. That number of tankers anchored
around Karg Island represents Iranian oil export capacity
physically trapped on the Iranian side of the US blockade.
These are tankers loaded with Iranian crude that cannot exit
to Chinese buyers because of the US blockades.
Enforcement around Iran's port approaches.
They are accumulating at Carg Island, the parking lot within
the parking lot. While the conflict that produced
the impasse moves toward a decision point measured in days,
the PGS as formal Monday announcement, gives the toll
operation and institutional identity, a public
communications platform and the beginning of international legal
standing. It is Iran asserting that this
is not a wartime improvisation that ends with a conflict does
It is a permanent institution with a mandate that is designed
to outlast the current negotiations, whatever they
produce. Day 81-A strike was scheduled
for today. Trump confirmed it publicly by
name on Truth Social 3. Gulf leaders asked Trump to hold
off by two to three days because serious negotiations are
underway and in their view a deal is coming.
The military is prepared for a full large scale assault at a
moment's notice if no acceptable deal is reached.
Iran submitted A revised 14 point proposal through Pakistan
on Monday and Pakistan shared it with US representatives.
Iran said nuclear matters have not yet been discussed.
All focus at this stage is on ending the war, a Pakistani
mediator told Reuters directly. Both sides keep changing their
goal posts and there's not much time left.
Iran struck the UAE Baraka nuclear power plant with a drone
over the weekend, causing a fire at the Arab world's first
commercial nuclear facility. The PGSA was formally announced
on Monday with its own X account, an Oman partnership and
a mandate to collect Hormuz transit fees.
Nearly two dozen tankers are anchored at Karg Island.
The next two to three days may determine whether this war ends
with a deal or continues into the full large scale assault
that 3 Gulf leaders. Monday.
Phone calls postponed by 48 to 72 hours.
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Apple Podcasts. This has been episode 81 of Epic
Fury, the US Iran war podcast. The next two to three days may
be the most consequential this war has produced since February
28th. They may also be the last days
of active hostilities in this 81 day conflict.
We will be back very soon.