1 00:00:16,790 --> 00:00:19,190 The ceasefire nearly broke on Monday. 2 00:00:19,550 --> 00:00:23,110 Iran fired 2 missiles at AUS Navy destroyer entering the 3 00:00:23,110 --> 00:00:27,550 Strait of Hormuz, or so Iran state media reported. the US 4 00:00:27,550 --> 00:00:30,430 denied it. The United States confirmed it 5 00:00:30,430 --> 00:00:33,750 destroyed at least six Iranian fast attack boats during the 6 00:00:33,750 --> 00:00:36,520 confrontation. Each side denied the other's 7 00:00:36,520 --> 00:00:40,200 account in its entirety. Only two US merchant vessels 8 00:00:40,200 --> 00:00:42,960 crossed the Strait on the first day of the guided transit 9 00:00:42,960 --> 00:00:45,240 operation. Not a return to commercial 10 00:00:45,240 --> 00:00:48,120 normalcy, but a test of intent and capability. 11 00:00:48,560 --> 00:00:52,080 The South Korean operated vessel caught fire after an explosion 12 00:00:52,120 --> 00:00:55,040 in the same waterway. The shipping insurance industry 13 00:00:55,040 --> 00:00:58,280 said it has no idea how the US transit plan is being 14 00:00:58,280 --> 00:01:00,400 coordinated with Iran, if at all. 15 00:01:01,000 --> 00:01:03,800 And hours after formally sending Congress letters declaring that 16 00:01:03,800 --> 00:01:06,760 hostilities with Iran have terminated under the War Powers 17 00:01:06,760 --> 00:01:09,880 Act, Trump stood before a Florida audience and said 18 00:01:09,880 --> 00:01:11,840 directly. You know we're in a war. 19 00:01:12,240 --> 00:01:18,680 It is Tuesday, May 5th, 2026, day 67 of Operation Epic Fury. 20 00:01:19,080 --> 00:01:23,040 Both sides traded fire in the Strait of Hormuz yesterday, or 21 00:01:23,040 --> 00:01:27,000 traded competing accounts of it. The ceasefire is intact, a name 22 00:01:27,080 --> 00:01:29,840 and under the severest operational stress of its four 23 00:01:29,840 --> 00:01:33,080 week existence and the gap between what is being publicly 24 00:01:33,080 --> 00:01:36,440 declared about this conflict, hostilities terminated, very 25 00:01:36,440 --> 00:01:39,760 positive discussions, confidence building measures and what is 26 00:01:39,760 --> 00:01:43,080 physically happening in the 34 mile wide waterway that carries 27 00:01:43,080 --> 00:01:46,240 20% of the world's oil has never been wider or more 28 00:01:46,240 --> 00:01:50,720 consequential. This is episode 67 of Epic Fury, 29 00:01:50,880 --> 00:01:55,040 the US Iran War podcast. Follow on Spotify and Apple 30 00:01:55,040 --> 00:01:57,840 Podcast to stay with this story as it develops. 31 00:01:58,360 --> 00:02:00,800 Let's get into it. Begin with Monday's 32 00:02:00,800 --> 00:02:03,720 confrontation in the Strait, because it was the most violent 33 00:02:03,720 --> 00:02:06,600 day between the two sides since the ceasefire was announced 4 34 00:02:06,600 --> 00:02:09,600 weeks ago, and because what happened in those hours changed 35 00:02:09,600 --> 00:02:12,680 the operational reality of this conflict in ways that cannot be 36 00:02:12,680 --> 00:02:16,040 reversed by morning briefings. CENTCOM established what it 37 00:02:16,040 --> 00:02:19,080 called an enhanced security area South of the normal commercial 38 00:02:19,080 --> 00:02:22,000 shipping lanes on Monday morning and announced it had begun 39 00:02:22,000 --> 00:02:23,480 guiding vessels through the Strait. 40 00:02:23,920 --> 00:02:26,960 Iran's armed forces responded immediately with a published 41 00:02:26,960 --> 00:02:29,480 warning. Any foreign armed forces, and 42 00:02:29,480 --> 00:02:32,760 particularly the aggressive U.S. Army, will be attacked if they 43 00:02:32,760 --> 00:02:35,520 attempt to approach or enter the Strait of Hormuz. 44 00:02:35,920 --> 00:02:38,280 That warning was issued in the morning hours. 45 00:02:38,720 --> 00:02:42,360 By midday, Iranian state media was reporting that AUS Navy 46 00:02:42,360 --> 00:02:45,920 destroyer had been struck by two Iranian missiles as it attempted 47 00:02:45,920 --> 00:02:49,160 to enter the Strait in what Iran characterized as a violation of 48 00:02:49,160 --> 00:02:52,760 traffic and shipping security. U.S. central Command denied 49 00:02:52,760 --> 00:02:55,880 categorically that any of its warships had been struck by 50 00:02:55,880 --> 00:02:59,320 Iranian fire. Iran denied the US account of 51 00:02:59,320 --> 00:03:03,320 events. the US confirmed it destroyed at least six small 52 00:03:03,320 --> 00:03:06,160 Iranian fast attack boats during the confrontation. 53 00:03:06,640 --> 00:03:08,760 Iran denied that account as well. 54 00:03:09,240 --> 00:03:12,480 Both governments filed publicly incompatible accounts of the 55 00:03:12,480 --> 00:03:15,880 same events in the same waterway over the same hours. 56 00:03:16,160 --> 00:03:19,360 Claims and denials that cannot both be factually accurate. 57 00:03:19,800 --> 00:03:23,240 The specific facts about who fired what, in what sequence, 58 00:03:23,560 --> 00:03:26,360 and with what result are contested and irreconcilable. 59 00:03:26,360 --> 00:03:30,000 As of this morning, CENTCOM denied any US warship was 60 00:03:30,000 --> 00:03:33,200 struck. Iran denied the US account of 6 61 00:03:33,200 --> 00:03:37,960 destroyed Iranian boats. the US confirmed 2US merchant ships 62 00:03:37,960 --> 00:03:40,880 crossed the Strait. Iran denied those crossings 63 00:03:40,880 --> 00:03:42,760 occurred. It is worth noting that 64 00:03:42,760 --> 00:03:45,440 competing accounts from 2 governments with strong and 65 00:03:45,440 --> 00:03:48,840 opposing strategic interests and how each event is characterized 66 00:03:48,840 --> 00:03:51,960 are not equivalently reliable on every specific claim. 67 00:03:52,400 --> 00:03:55,200 But the fact that both sides are disputing each other's accounts, 68 00:03:55,320 --> 00:03:57,440 rather than one side acknowledging events the other 69 00:03:57,440 --> 00:04:01,480 denied, means The public record on Day 67 consists of claims 70 00:04:01,640 --> 00:04:04,760 denials and the physical reality that a South Korean vessel 71 00:04:04,760 --> 00:04:07,560 caught fire after an explosion in the Strait and that the 72 00:04:07,560 --> 00:04:10,480 ceasefire has never before produced military action of this 73 00:04:10,480 --> 00:04:13,640 scale between the two parties. What is not contested? 74 00:04:13,960 --> 00:04:17,160 The Strait of Hormuz is now an active military confrontation 75 00:04:17,160 --> 00:04:20,760 zone between the US Navy and the Iranian Revolutionary Guard 76 00:04:20,760 --> 00:04:24,360 Navy, and this confrontation is occurring under a ceasefire that 77 00:04:24,360 --> 00:04:27,440 both sides continue to nominally claim is still in force. 78 00:04:27,800 --> 00:04:31,280 The Enhanced Security area, the guided transit operation, the 79 00:04:31,280 --> 00:04:34,680 Iranian warning, the missile claim and its denial, the boat 80 00:04:34,680 --> 00:04:36,600 destruction claim and its denial. 81 00:04:37,000 --> 00:04:40,000 All of it adds up to a waterway where the ceasefire's nominal 82 00:04:40,000 --> 00:04:43,200 existence is being tested in real time against the physical 83 00:04:43,200 --> 00:04:46,680 reality of two armed forces with fundamentally incompatible 84 00:04:46,680 --> 00:04:50,040 sovereign claims operating in the same 34 mile wide channel 85 00:04:50,040 --> 00:04:53,360 simultaneously. CN NS International Diplomatic 86 00:04:53,360 --> 00:04:56,640 Editor Nick Robertson reported that the future of the ceasefire 87 00:04:56,640 --> 00:04:59,520 could hinge on what happens in the Strait in the coming days. 88 00:04:59,920 --> 00:05:02,760 That assessment from one of the most experienced regional 89 00:05:02,760 --> 00:05:06,160 correspondents covering this conflict reflects A widely 90 00:05:06,160 --> 00:05:08,920 shared view among analysts watching Monday's events. 91 00:05:09,320 --> 00:05:12,960 The ceasefire has survived 4 weeks of significant stress, the 92 00:05:13,000 --> 00:05:17,240 IRGC seizure of the Tuska, the IRGC firing on tankers it had 93 00:05:17,240 --> 00:05:20,920 itself previously cleared, Iran's 2 written proposals being 94 00:05:20,920 --> 00:05:24,760 effectively rejected, and the April 22nd near expiry resolved 95 00:05:24,760 --> 00:05:26,960 90 minutes before the midnight deadline. 96 00:05:27,360 --> 00:05:30,960 It has never previously survived a day in which the US and Iran 97 00:05:30,960 --> 00:05:34,160 exchanged competing claims of directly firing on each other's 98 00:05:34,160 --> 00:05:36,480 military vessels in the same narrow channel. 99 00:05:39,040 --> 00:05:42,800 The guided transit operation produced exactly 2 US merchant 100 00:05:42,800 --> 00:05:46,400 ship crossings on its first day. Not a surge of commercial 101 00:05:46,400 --> 00:05:50,280 traffic, not a return to normal shipping through the world's 102 00:05:50,280 --> 00:05:53,480 most important oil waterway. 2 vessels. 103 00:05:53,920 --> 00:05:57,440 Iran denied even those two crossings occurred, claiming no 104 00:05:57,440 --> 00:06:00,400 American merchant ships had transited under its maritime 105 00:06:00,400 --> 00:06:02,400 regime. The shipping insurance 106 00:06:02,400 --> 00:06:05,880 industry's reaction to the operations first day captured 107 00:06:05,880 --> 00:06:09,600 the commercial reality with precision, Simon Kay, global 108 00:06:09,600 --> 00:06:12,520 director of reinsurance at North Standard, which provides 109 00:06:12,520 --> 00:06:15,160 liability insurance for a significant portion of the world 110 00:06:15,160 --> 00:06:18,960 shipping fleet, told CNN. There is no specificity about 111 00:06:18,960 --> 00:06:21,920 which countries have asked for this humanitarian mission, nor 112 00:06:21,920 --> 00:06:24,280 how this may be coordinated with Iran, if at all. 113 00:06:24,720 --> 00:06:27,440 That is the verdict of the organization that prices the 114 00:06:27,440 --> 00:06:29,920 risk of putting commercial vessels through the Strait. 115 00:06:30,320 --> 00:06:33,600 The North Standard assessment is not a political position. 116 00:06:34,200 --> 00:06:38,080 It is an underwriting decision when the organization that sets 117 00:06:38,080 --> 00:06:40,640 insurance rates for straight transit says it does not know 118 00:06:40,640 --> 00:06:42,600 how the US operation is coordinated with. 119 00:06:42,600 --> 00:06:46,080 Iran is saying that the risk level has not changed in a way 120 00:06:46,080 --> 00:06:48,160 that allows them to price a lower premium. 121 00:06:48,680 --> 00:06:51,440 No lower premium means no commercial search. 122 00:06:51,840 --> 00:06:55,200 Ships do not route through a war zone without affordable 123 00:06:55,200 --> 00:06:58,040 insurance. Iran is maintaining A sufficient 124 00:06:58,040 --> 00:07:00,920 perception of risk to keep merchant traffic to small 125 00:07:00,920 --> 00:07:04,520 numbers even under direct American naval protection, one 126 00:07:04,520 --> 00:07:06,880 maritime security analyst told CNN. 127 00:07:07,240 --> 00:07:11,160 The perception alone, regardless of whether the IRGC acts on any 128 00:07:11,160 --> 00:07:14,560 given day, is keeping commercial vessels from routing through the 129 00:07:14,560 --> 00:07:16,840 Strait. Commercial confidence is the 130 00:07:16,840 --> 00:07:20,000 center of gravity of the straits functioning as a commercial 131 00:07:20,000 --> 00:07:22,280 waterway. The two vessel crossing is a 132 00:07:22,280 --> 00:07:24,840 demonstration. That the US can technically move 133 00:07:24,840 --> 00:07:28,440 ships through is not evidence that commerce has returned to 134 00:07:28,440 --> 00:07:30,840 the Strait. The gap between demonstrating 135 00:07:30,840 --> 00:07:34,280 intent and restoring commercial confidence is the full measure 136 00:07:34,280 --> 00:07:37,280 of the guided transits first day and the challenge it will need 137 00:07:37,280 --> 00:07:40,040 to overcome in the days ahead to produce the commercial and 138 00:07:40,040 --> 00:07:42,360 political result it was designed to deliver. 139 00:07:42,760 --> 00:07:45,800 Iran is maintaining a perception of risk that keeps merchant 140 00:07:45,800 --> 00:07:49,640 traffic to small numbers, 1 maritime security analyst told 141 00:07:49,640 --> 00:07:52,040 CNN. Commercial confidence is the 142 00:07:52,040 --> 00:07:54,560 center of gravity of the straits functioning. 143 00:07:55,040 --> 00:07:58,240 A Strait where Iran fires missiles at AUS destroyer, 144 00:07:58,520 --> 00:08:01,680 whether or not the destroyer was struck, whether or not Iran's 145 00:08:01,680 --> 00:08:04,840 account is accurate, is a Strait where commercial confidence is 146 00:08:04,840 --> 00:08:08,960 not returning, insurance rates are not coming down, ships are 147 00:08:08,960 --> 00:08:12,560 not routing through the two vessel crossing is not the 148 00:08:12,560 --> 00:08:15,880 opening of Hormus. It is a demonstration of intent 149 00:08:15,880 --> 00:08:18,360 that has not yet produced a commercial outcome. 150 00:08:18,880 --> 00:08:22,200 The Tuska crew release was the one genuine confidence building 151 00:08:22,200 --> 00:08:25,320 development of Monday, and its significance is amplified by 152 00:08:25,320 --> 00:08:27,080 what else happened on the same day. 153 00:08:27,600 --> 00:08:31,560 Pakistan flew 22 crew members from the Tuska, the Iranian 154 00:08:31,560 --> 00:08:35,440 cargo ship whose engine room the US Navy disabled by gunfire on 155 00:08:35,480 --> 00:08:39,159 April 20th in the Gulf of Oman, to Pakistan on Sunday night. 156 00:08:39,600 --> 00:08:43,080 Pakistan described the operation as a confidence building measure 157 00:08:43,080 --> 00:08:45,600 coordinated with the United States and Iran. 158 00:08:46,000 --> 00:08:48,600 The crew will be handed to Iranian authorities. 159 00:08:49,080 --> 00:08:51,880 The Tuska itself remains in US custody. 160 00:08:52,240 --> 00:08:55,720 Iran had demanded the immediate release of the Tuska and its 161 00:08:55,720 --> 00:08:58,520 crew from the moment of the seizure on April 20th. 162 00:08:59,040 --> 00:09:02,680 They called the seizure piracy, armed aggression and a ceasefire 163 00:09:02,680 --> 00:09:05,480 violation in letters to the UN Security Council. 164 00:09:06,080 --> 00:09:08,840 The crews released through Pakistani mediation does not 165 00:09:08,840 --> 00:09:12,360 resolve the Tuska question. The ship is still held, but it 166 00:09:12,360 --> 00:09:16,400 addresses the immediate human dimension of the seizure. 22 167 00:09:16,400 --> 00:09:19,960 people who have been in American custody since April 20th are 168 00:09:19,960 --> 00:09:22,280 going home through Pakistani mediation. 169 00:09:22,800 --> 00:09:27,000 That is a real outcome, small, specific and human, that both 170 00:09:27,000 --> 00:09:29,120 governments were willing to coordinate in the middle of a 171 00:09:29,120 --> 00:09:32,520 day when their respective naval forces were exchanging competing 172 00:09:32,520 --> 00:09:34,640 claims of fire in the same waterway. 173 00:09:35,040 --> 00:09:38,120 The coexistence of the two Scott crew release and the straight 174 00:09:38,120 --> 00:09:41,160 military confrontation on the same Monday morning is the most 175 00:09:41,160 --> 00:09:44,640 striking single illustration of the wars dual track reality that 176 00:09:44,640 --> 00:09:47,440 the conflict is yet produced on one track. 177 00:09:47,680 --> 00:09:51,280 Pakistan coordinating a crew handover described a confidence 178 00:09:51,280 --> 00:09:53,640 building measure. Both governments actively 179 00:09:53,640 --> 00:09:56,720 participating. Iran seafarers coming home on 180 00:09:56,720 --> 00:09:58,760 the other track. IRGC missiles. 181 00:09:59,120 --> 00:10:02,880 US destroyer denials. 6 Iranian boats claimed destroyed. 182 00:10:03,080 --> 00:10:05,760 Contested accounts across every wire service. 183 00:10:05,880 --> 00:10:08,480 The ceasefire under the most direct stress of its four week 184 00:10:08,480 --> 00:10:10,840 existence. Both tracks are happening 185 00:10:10,840 --> 00:10:13,440 simultaneously and on the same day. 186 00:10:14,080 --> 00:10:17,920 Neither cancels the other. The dual track reality of this 187 00:10:17,920 --> 00:10:20,040 war. Diplomatic engagement through 188 00:10:20,040 --> 00:10:23,480 Pakistan and military confrontation in the Strait and 189 00:10:23,480 --> 00:10:26,200 not breaking down. It is operating in both 190 00:10:26,200 --> 00:10:29,080 directions simultaneously at full intensity. 191 00:10:29,560 --> 00:10:32,680 Trump sent formal letters to Congress on Friday declaring the 192 00:10:32,680 --> 00:10:35,800 hostilities with Iran have terminated the legal position 193 00:10:35,800 --> 00:10:39,480 the administration has taken to justify crossing the 60 day war 194 00:10:39,480 --> 00:10:42,400 powers deadline without congressional authorization. 195 00:10:42,880 --> 00:10:45,440 Hours later, speaking in Florida, he said. 196 00:10:45,600 --> 00:10:48,680 You know we're in a war. Because I think you would agree 197 00:10:48,800 --> 00:10:51,560 we cannot let lunatics have a nuclear weapon. 198 00:10:52,200 --> 00:10:55,400 That juxtaposition, formally declaring to Congress that 199 00:10:55,400 --> 00:10:58,720 hostilities have terminated, then telling a Florida audience 200 00:10:58,720 --> 00:11:01,920 that, you know, we're in a war is the administration's dual 201 00:11:01,920 --> 00:11:05,800 register strategy applied to its own constitutional obligations 202 00:11:06,240 --> 00:11:08,880 to Congress. It is saying this is over the 203 00:11:08,880 --> 00:11:12,360 clock, stopped. We do not need authorization to 204 00:11:12,360 --> 00:11:15,400 its base, it is saying. We are in a war, and we. 205 00:11:15,400 --> 00:11:18,280 Are winning it. Both statements were made within 206 00:11:18,280 --> 00:11:22,040 hours of each other on Friday. Both were made by the same 207 00:11:22,040 --> 00:11:24,960 president. Whether the legal formulation or 208 00:11:24,960 --> 00:11:27,840 the political formulation is the accurate description of what is 209 00:11:27,840 --> 00:11:30,640 happening in the Strait of Hormuz on Monday is answered by 210 00:11:30,640 --> 00:11:33,040 the question of how you characterize Iran firing 211 00:11:33,040 --> 00:11:36,640 missiles at AUS warship while a ceasefire is nominally in force. 212 00:11:37,160 --> 00:11:40,800 The Washington Post, ABC News and Ipsos publish a poll on 213 00:11:40,800 --> 00:11:44,920 Friday showing that only 36% of Americans believe the United 214 00:11:44,920 --> 00:11:47,760 States did the right thing in using military force against 215 00:11:47,760 --> 00:11:51,840 Iran. 67 days and past the ceasefire, past the written 216 00:11:51,840 --> 00:11:55,120 proposal exchange, past the guided transits contested 217 00:11:55,120 --> 00:11:57,400 launch. Only one in three Americans is 218 00:11:57,400 --> 00:12:00,360 willing to say the use of military force against Iran was 219 00:12:00,360 --> 00:12:03,560 the right decision. That is not a minority fringe 220 00:12:03,560 --> 00:12:06,320 position. It is a majority of the American 221 00:12:06,320 --> 00:12:10,600 public that has absorbed 67 days of war, a 50% petrol price 222 00:12:10,600 --> 00:12:14,560 increase, a closed straight, 13 American service members dead, a 223 00:12:14,560 --> 00:12:17,360 congressional quagmire accusation, a war powers 224 00:12:17,360 --> 00:12:20,280 deadline crossed and reached the conclusion that the force was 225 00:12:20,280 --> 00:12:23,600 not the right decision. Trump responded to the polling 226 00:12:23,600 --> 00:12:27,280 by questioning its methodology. He said the question was biased 227 00:12:27,280 --> 00:12:31,200 against him, that polls on Iran are totally fake, and that even 228 00:12:31,200 --> 00:12:33,800 a question about whether Iran should have a nuclear weapon 229 00:12:33,800 --> 00:12:35,720 would not substantially change his numbers. 230 00:12:36,160 --> 00:12:39,280 His skepticism about poll methodology is not without any 231 00:12:39,280 --> 00:12:41,640 basis. The precise wording of questions 232 00:12:41,640 --> 00:12:45,320 about complex military decisions does affect responses in ways 233 00:12:45,320 --> 00:12:49,920 that are difficult to control. But 36% is not a figure produced 234 00:12:49,920 --> 00:12:54,440 by one outlets idiosyncratic methodology if replicated across 235 00:12:54,440 --> 00:12:57,800 different polling organizations, and no contradictory poll has 236 00:12:57,800 --> 00:12:59,480 been cited by the administration. 237 00:12:59,760 --> 00:13:02,640 It describes a country in which the president is prosecuting a 238 00:13:02,640 --> 00:13:06,000 war that the majority of his own citizens, looking back, do not 239 00:13:06,000 --> 00:13:08,400 endorse. The Trump administration sent 240 00:13:08,400 --> 00:13:11,280 letters to Congress on Friday formally declaring the 241 00:13:11,280 --> 00:13:14,320 hostilities with Iran have terminated the legal claim 242 00:13:14,320 --> 00:13:17,600 needed to cross the 60 day war powers threshold without 243 00:13:17,600 --> 00:13:21,560 authorization within hours. Speaking in Florida, Trump said. 244 00:13:21,800 --> 00:13:25,280 You know we're in a war. That juxtaposition, termination 245 00:13:25,280 --> 00:13:28,000 of hostilities to Congress, acknowledgement of war to a 246 00:13:28,000 --> 00:13:31,280 Florida audience, Is the administration managing its 247 00:13:31,280 --> 00:13:34,800 constitutional exposure and its political base through different 248 00:13:34,800 --> 00:13:38,760 registers simultaneously? To Congress, the clock stopped, 249 00:13:39,000 --> 00:13:43,400 no authorization needed. To the base, the war is ongoing, 250 00:13:43,440 --> 00:13:47,400 worth fighting, and you know it. Both statements are politically 251 00:13:47,400 --> 00:13:50,720 necessary. Neither is fully compatible with 252 00:13:50,720 --> 00:13:54,000 the other. And on Monday, AUS destroyer in 253 00:13:54,000 --> 00:13:57,680 the Strait either was or was not fired upon by Iranian missiles. 254 00:13:58,040 --> 00:14:00,560 And either outcome has implications for at least one of 255 00:14:00,560 --> 00:14:04,120 those two positions. The 31 Iranian tankers carrying 256 00:14:04,120 --> 00:14:07,640 53,000,000 barrels of oil trapped in the Persian Gulf are 257 00:14:07,640 --> 00:14:10,480 the most specific available quantification of what the 258 00:14:10,480 --> 00:14:14,440 blockade has actually achieved as an economic instrument, Axios 259 00:14:14,440 --> 00:14:17,400 reported the figure, citing Pentagon officials. 260 00:14:17,840 --> 00:14:21,080 At current oil prices, 53,000,000 barrels represents 261 00:14:21,080 --> 00:14:24,600 approximately $5 billion in crude oil value sitting in the 262 00:14:24,600 --> 00:14:27,600 hulls of ships that cannot unload their cargo, cannot 263 00:14:27,600 --> 00:14:31,000 return to Iranian ports for reloading, and cannot sail to 264 00:14:31,000 --> 00:14:33,920 buyers because the US blockade intercept them on route. 265 00:14:34,320 --> 00:14:37,080 The tankers are warehouses that cannot be opened. 266 00:14:37,760 --> 00:14:40,400 The oil is revenue that cannot be collected. 267 00:14:41,080 --> 00:14:44,040 The blockades economic impact operates through three 268 00:14:44,040 --> 00:14:48,320 simultaneous channels. The first, Iran cannot export 269 00:14:48,320 --> 00:14:52,640 the oil it has. 31 tankers worth of accumulated production is 270 00:14:52,640 --> 00:14:55,800 sitting in the Gulf rather than being delivered to buyers. 271 00:14:56,200 --> 00:14:59,960 The second, Iran cannot produce new oil at normal rates because 272 00:14:59,960 --> 00:15:02,360 it cannot clear existing production from storage 273 00:15:02,360 --> 00:15:05,840 facilities and tanker capacity. The pipeline backs up behind the 274 00:15:05,840 --> 00:15:09,120 block distribution system. The card island storage filling 275 00:15:09,120 --> 00:15:11,840 up is the land based equivalent of the trapped tankers 276 00:15:11,840 --> 00:15:14,880 production backing up behind a block distribution system. 277 00:15:15,360 --> 00:15:18,920 The third, the US Global Blockade intercept, shadow fleet 278 00:15:18,920 --> 00:15:21,920 tankers attempting to move Iranian oil beyond the Strait, 279 00:15:22,280 --> 00:15:25,120 removing Iran's primary mechanism for routing around the 280 00:15:25,120 --> 00:15:28,240 hormones closure that has served it throughout the sanctions era. 281 00:15:28,640 --> 00:15:31,440 All three channels of the blockades economic impact are 282 00:15:31,440 --> 00:15:34,560 operating simultaneously and compounding each other. 283 00:15:35,000 --> 00:15:38,800 The 53,000,000 barrel figure is also a measure of how long the 284 00:15:38,800 --> 00:15:42,880 blockade has been effective. 48 days of blockade since April 285 00:15:42,880 --> 00:15:46,400 13th at Iran's pre war production of approximately 3 286 00:15:46,400 --> 00:15:49,560 and a half million barrels per day with a large percentage 287 00:15:49,560 --> 00:15:53,080 blocked from export produces A trapped cargo of this scale. 288 00:15:53,480 --> 00:15:57,040 The figure is not static. Every day the blockade 289 00:15:57,040 --> 00:16:00,320 continues, more barrels are added to the accumulation. 290 00:16:00,800 --> 00:16:03,840 Every day those tankers sit in the Gulf without unloading, 291 00:16:03,960 --> 00:16:06,520 Iran's fiscal position deteriorates further. 292 00:16:06,920 --> 00:16:09,920 The economic cost of not making the nuclear concession is 293 00:16:09,920 --> 00:16:13,040 compounding daily toward the threshold where it exceeds the 294 00:16:13,040 --> 00:16:16,360 political cost of making it if it is not already crossed it. 295 00:16:16,760 --> 00:16:20,320 The South Korean operated vessel caught fire after an explosion 296 00:16:20,360 --> 00:16:22,120 in the Strait of Hormuz on Monday. 297 00:16:22,520 --> 00:16:25,600 South Korea's Foreign Ministry confirmed the ship was carrying 298 00:16:25,600 --> 00:16:28,920 24 crew members, including six South Korean nationals. 299 00:16:29,320 --> 00:16:32,720 All crew were reported safe. The vessel will be towed to a 300 00:16:32,720 --> 00:16:35,560 nearby port for inspection and repairs. 301 00:16:36,000 --> 00:16:39,480 The cause of the fire with a missile strike, drone minded 302 00:16:39,480 --> 00:16:42,920 nation or accident had not been officially confirmed as of this 303 00:16:42,920 --> 00:16:46,000 episode's recording. South Korea is one of Iran's 304 00:16:46,000 --> 00:16:49,640 most significant pre war oil customers and is not a party to 305 00:16:49,640 --> 00:16:52,640 the US Iran conflict in any military sense. 306 00:16:53,080 --> 00:16:55,640 A South Korean vessel Catching Fire in the straight in the 307 00:16:55,640 --> 00:16:59,000 middle of a confrontation between the US Navy and the IRGC 308 00:16:59,640 --> 00:17:02,760 is the kind of event that draws additional navies, additional 309 00:17:02,760 --> 00:17:05,599 diplomatic protests and additional international 310 00:17:05,599 --> 00:17:08,319 attention to the straight at a moment when the operations 311 00:17:08,319 --> 00:17:10,640 commercial credibility is already being questioned. 312 00:17:11,000 --> 00:17:14,280 Seoul's Foreign Ministry was monitoring the situation closely 313 00:17:14,560 --> 00:17:17,280 and said it would carry out investigations once the vessel 314 00:17:17,280 --> 00:17:22,000 was towed to port. Monday's confrontation in the 315 00:17:22,000 --> 00:17:25,160 Strait did not produce a formal breakdown of the ceasefire. 316 00:17:25,599 --> 00:17:30,080 No new American bombs fell on Iranian territory, no Iranian 317 00:17:30,080 --> 00:17:32,360 missiles. Whatever fired whatever target 318 00:17:32,360 --> 00:17:35,920 on Monday landed on American military bases across the 319 00:17:35,920 --> 00:17:38,600 region. The ceasefire in its most 320 00:17:38,600 --> 00:17:42,360 minimal and technical definition held through the day, but the 321 00:17:42,360 --> 00:17:45,240 architecture that has sustained it, the implicit understanding 322 00:17:45,240 --> 00:17:48,800 that both sides are exercising meaningful restraint in exchange 323 00:17:48,800 --> 00:17:51,840 for a diplomatic process through Pakistan, is under the most 324 00:17:51,840 --> 00:17:55,120 severe operational stress it has faced since the agreement was 325 00:17:55,120 --> 00:17:58,040 announced on April 8th. The ceasefire is being held 326 00:17:58,040 --> 00:18:00,800 together by three things simultaneously. 327 00:18:01,360 --> 00:18:04,400 The proposal exchange through Pakistan which is now bi 328 00:18:04,400 --> 00:18:07,840 directional with both sides sending written documents and 329 00:18:07,840 --> 00:18:12,080 Iran reviewing AUS response. The two Scott crew release a 330 00:18:12,080 --> 00:18:15,040 small but real coordinated confidence building action that 331 00:18:15,040 --> 00:18:18,840 both governments participated in on Monday and the private track 332 00:18:18,840 --> 00:18:20,760 that trump confirmed on Thursday. 333 00:18:20,920 --> 00:18:24,200 The one only he and a handful of others understand which he 334 00:18:24,200 --> 00:18:27,600 described on Sunday as producing very positive discussions. 335 00:18:28,000 --> 00:18:30,840 Those three things are the architecture of a ceasefire that 336 00:18:30,840 --> 00:18:33,440 is still by the narrowest of margins. 337 00:18:33,440 --> 00:18:37,400 Holding set against them are IRGC missile claims denied by 338 00:18:37,400 --> 00:18:41,080 CENTCOM, US fast boat destruction denied by Iran, a 339 00:18:41,080 --> 00:18:45,520 South Korean vessel on fire in a straight 36% public support for 340 00:18:45,520 --> 00:18:48,120 the war, and a shipping insurance industry that says it 341 00:18:48,120 --> 00:18:51,040 has no idea how the guided transit operation is being 342 00:18:51,040 --> 00:18:52,760 coordinated with Iran, if at all. 343 00:18:53,240 --> 00:18:56,600 The 2 Scott crew is free and on their way to Pakistani 344 00:18:56,600 --> 00:18:59,120 authorities. The proposals are flowing in 345 00:18:59,120 --> 00:19:02,240 both directions through Pakistan, The Strait is 346 00:19:02,240 --> 00:19:06,040 producing military confrontations and the ceasefire 347 00:19:06,200 --> 00:19:09,280 by the narrowest of margins and in the most technical of census, 348 00:19:09,280 --> 00:19:12,600 is still intact. If this podcast is helping you 349 00:19:12,600 --> 00:19:15,920 make sense of what's happening, take 2 seconds to leave a five 350 00:19:15,920 --> 00:19:18,520 star rating on Spotify or Apple Podcasts. 351 00:19:18,920 --> 00:19:22,120 It makes a huge difference to how many people find the show. 352 00:19:22,560 --> 00:19:24,960 And if you want the deeper breakdown of what's really going 353 00:19:24,960 --> 00:19:27,760 on and where this is heading, you can unlock the premium 354 00:19:27,760 --> 00:19:30,880 episodes directly in Spotify or Apple Podcasts. 355 00:19:31,280 --> 00:19:36,640 This has been episode 67 of Epic Fury the US Iran war podcast 356 00:19:37,040 --> 00:19:42,160 episode 67. Iran fired at AUS destroyer. the 357 00:19:42,360 --> 00:19:46,800 US destroyed Iranian fast boats. Both sides deny the others 358 00:19:46,800 --> 00:19:50,000 account. 2 merchant ships cross the Strait. 359 00:19:50,440 --> 00:19:54,000 The insurance industry has no idea how it's being coordinated 360 00:19:54,000 --> 00:19:56,720 with Iran. The 2 Scott crew is free. 361 00:19:57,280 --> 00:20:01,080 Trump told Congress hostilities terminated, then told Florida 362 00:20:01,080 --> 00:20:04,880 we're in a war. Only 36% of Americans think the 363 00:20:04,880 --> 00:20:08,720 war was the right call. 53,000,000 barrels of Iranian 364 00:20:08,720 --> 00:20:11,960 oil are sitting in the Gulf in tankers that cannot reach their 365 00:20:11,960 --> 00:20:16,520 buyers and cannot unload. The ceasefire holds a name under 366 00:20:16,520 --> 00:20:20,200 gunfire, under competing claims and under the narrowest of 367 00:20:20,200 --> 00:20:23,440 possible margins. We will be back very soon.