The ceasefire nearly broke on Monday.
Iran fired 2 missiles at AUS Navy destroyer entering the
Strait of Hormuz, or so Iran state media reported. the US
denied it. The United States confirmed it
destroyed at least six Iranian fast attack boats during the
confrontation. Each side denied the other's
account in its entirety. Only two US merchant vessels
crossed the Strait on the first day of the guided transit
operation. Not a return to commercial
normalcy, but a test of intent and capability.
The South Korean operated vessel caught fire after an explosion
in the same waterway. The shipping insurance industry
said it has no idea how the US transit plan is being
coordinated with Iran, if at all.
And hours after formally sending Congress letters declaring that
hostilities with Iran have terminated under the War Powers
Act, Trump stood before a Florida audience and said
directly. You know we're in a war.
It is Tuesday, May 5th, 2026, day 67 of Operation Epic Fury.
Both sides traded fire in the Strait of Hormuz yesterday, or
traded competing accounts of it. The ceasefire is intact, a name
and under the severest operational stress of its four
week existence and the gap between what is being publicly
declared about this conflict, hostilities terminated, very
positive discussions, confidence building measures and what is
physically happening in the 34 mile wide waterway that carries
20% of the world's oil has never been wider or more
consequential. This is episode 67 of Epic Fury,
the US Iran War podcast. Follow on Spotify and Apple
Podcast to stay with this story as it develops.
Let's get into it. Begin with Monday's
confrontation in the Strait, because it was the most violent
day between the two sides since the ceasefire was announced 4
weeks ago, and because what happened in those hours changed
the operational reality of this conflict in ways that cannot be
reversed by morning briefings. CENTCOM established what it
called an enhanced security area South of the normal commercial
shipping lanes on Monday morning and announced it had begun
guiding vessels through the Strait.
Iran's armed forces responded immediately with a published
warning. Any foreign armed forces, and
particularly the aggressive U.S. Army, will be attacked if they
attempt to approach or enter the Strait of Hormuz.
That warning was issued in the morning hours.
By midday, Iranian state media was reporting that AUS Navy
destroyer had been struck by two Iranian missiles as it attempted
to enter the Strait in what Iran characterized as a violation of
traffic and shipping security. U.S. central Command denied
categorically that any of its warships had been struck by
Iranian fire. Iran denied the US account of
events. the US confirmed it destroyed at least six small
Iranian fast attack boats during the confrontation.
Iran denied that account as well.
Both governments filed publicly incompatible accounts of the
same events in the same waterway over the same hours.
Claims and denials that cannot both be factually accurate.
The specific facts about who fired what, in what sequence,
and with what result are contested and irreconcilable.
As of this morning, CENTCOM denied any US warship was
struck. Iran denied the US account of 6
destroyed Iranian boats. the US confirmed 2US merchant ships
crossed the Strait. Iran denied those crossings
occurred. It is worth noting that
competing accounts from 2 governments with strong and
opposing strategic interests and how each event is characterized
are not equivalently reliable on every specific claim.
But the fact that both sides are disputing each other's accounts,
rather than one side acknowledging events the other
denied, means The public record on Day 67 consists of claims
denials and the physical reality that a South Korean vessel
caught fire after an explosion in the Strait and that the
ceasefire has never before produced military action of this
scale between the two parties. What is not contested?
The Strait of Hormuz is now an active military confrontation
zone between the US Navy and the Iranian Revolutionary Guard
Navy, and this confrontation is occurring under a ceasefire that
both sides continue to nominally claim is still in force.
The Enhanced Security area, the guided transit operation, the
Iranian warning, the missile claim and its denial, the boat
destruction claim and its denial.
All of it adds up to a waterway where the ceasefire's nominal
existence is being tested in real time against the physical
reality of two armed forces with fundamentally incompatible
sovereign claims operating in the same 34 mile wide channel
simultaneously. CN NS International Diplomatic
Editor Nick Robertson reported that the future of the ceasefire
could hinge on what happens in the Strait in the coming days.
That assessment from one of the most experienced regional
correspondents covering this conflict reflects A widely
shared view among analysts watching Monday's events.
The ceasefire has survived 4 weeks of significant stress, the
IRGC seizure of the Tuska, the IRGC firing on tankers it had
itself previously cleared, Iran's 2 written proposals being
effectively rejected, and the April 22nd near expiry resolved
90 minutes before the midnight deadline.
It has never previously survived a day in which the US and Iran
exchanged competing claims of directly firing on each other's
military vessels in the same narrow channel.
The guided transit operation produced exactly 2 US merchant
ship crossings on its first day. Not a surge of commercial
traffic, not a return to normal shipping through the world's
most important oil waterway. 2 vessels.
Iran denied even those two crossings occurred, claiming no
American merchant ships had transited under its maritime
regime. The shipping insurance
industry's reaction to the operations first day captured
the commercial reality with precision, Simon Kay, global
director of reinsurance at North Standard, which provides
liability insurance for a significant portion of the world
shipping fleet, told CNN. There is no specificity about
which countries have asked for this humanitarian mission, nor
how this may be coordinated with Iran, if at all.
That is the verdict of the organization that prices the
risk of putting commercial vessels through the Strait.
The North Standard assessment is not a political position.
It is an underwriting decision when the organization that sets
insurance rates for straight transit says it does not know
how the US operation is coordinated with.
Iran is saying that the risk level has not changed in a way
that allows them to price a lower premium.
No lower premium means no commercial search.
Ships do not route through a war zone without affordable
insurance. Iran is maintaining A sufficient
perception of risk to keep merchant traffic to small
numbers even under direct American naval protection, one
maritime security analyst told CNN.
The perception alone, regardless of whether the IRGC acts on any
given day, is keeping commercial vessels from routing through the
Strait. Commercial confidence is the
center of gravity of the straits functioning as a commercial
waterway. The two vessel crossing is a
demonstration. That the US can technically move
ships through is not evidence that commerce has returned to
the Strait. The gap between demonstrating
intent and restoring commercial confidence is the full measure
of the guided transits first day and the challenge it will need
to overcome in the days ahead to produce the commercial and
political result it was designed to deliver.
Iran is maintaining a perception of risk that keeps merchant
traffic to small numbers, 1 maritime security analyst told
CNN. Commercial confidence is the
center of gravity of the straits functioning.
A Strait where Iran fires missiles at AUS destroyer,
whether or not the destroyer was struck, whether or not Iran's
account is accurate, is a Strait where commercial confidence is
not returning, insurance rates are not coming down, ships are
not routing through the two vessel crossing is not the
opening of Hormus. It is a demonstration of intent
that has not yet produced a commercial outcome.
The Tuska crew release was the one genuine confidence building
development of Monday, and its significance is amplified by
what else happened on the same day.
Pakistan flew 22 crew members from the Tuska, the Iranian
cargo ship whose engine room the US Navy disabled by gunfire on
April 20th in the Gulf of Oman, to Pakistan on Sunday night.
Pakistan described the operation as a confidence building measure
coordinated with the United States and Iran.
The crew will be handed to Iranian authorities.
The Tuska itself remains in US custody.
Iran had demanded the immediate release of the Tuska and its
crew from the moment of the seizure on April 20th.
They called the seizure piracy, armed aggression and a ceasefire
violation in letters to the UN Security Council.
The crews released through Pakistani mediation does not
resolve the Tuska question. The ship is still held, but it
addresses the immediate human dimension of the seizure. 22
people who have been in American custody since April 20th are
going home through Pakistani mediation.
That is a real outcome, small, specific and human, that both
governments were willing to coordinate in the middle of a
day when their respective naval forces were exchanging competing
claims of fire in the same waterway.
The coexistence of the two Scott crew release and the straight
military confrontation on the same Monday morning is the most
striking single illustration of the wars dual track reality that
the conflict is yet produced on one track.
Pakistan coordinating a crew handover described a confidence
building measure. Both governments actively
participating. Iran seafarers coming home on
the other track. IRGC missiles.
US destroyer denials. 6 Iranian boats claimed destroyed.
Contested accounts across every wire service.
The ceasefire under the most direct stress of its four week
existence. Both tracks are happening
simultaneously and on the same day.
Neither cancels the other. The dual track reality of this
war. Diplomatic engagement through
Pakistan and military confrontation in the Strait and
not breaking down. It is operating in both
directions simultaneously at full intensity.
Trump sent formal letters to Congress on Friday declaring the
hostilities with Iran have terminated the legal position
the administration has taken to justify crossing the 60 day war
powers deadline without congressional authorization.
Hours later, speaking in Florida, he said.
You know we're in a war. Because I think you would agree
we cannot let lunatics have a nuclear weapon.
That juxtaposition, formally declaring to Congress that
hostilities have terminated, then telling a Florida audience
that, you know, we're in a war is the administration's dual
register strategy applied to its own constitutional obligations
to Congress. It is saying this is over the
clock, stopped. We do not need authorization to
its base, it is saying. We are in a war, and we.
Are winning it. Both statements were made within
hours of each other on Friday. Both were made by the same
president. Whether the legal formulation or
the political formulation is the accurate description of what is
happening in the Strait of Hormuz on Monday is answered by
the question of how you characterize Iran firing
missiles at AUS warship while a ceasefire is nominally in force.
The Washington Post, ABC News and Ipsos publish a poll on
Friday showing that only 36% of Americans believe the United
States did the right thing in using military force against
Iran. 67 days and past the ceasefire, past the written
proposal exchange, past the guided transits contested
launch. Only one in three Americans is
willing to say the use of military force against Iran was
the right decision. That is not a minority fringe
position. It is a majority of the American
public that has absorbed 67 days of war, a 50% petrol price
increase, a closed straight, 13 American service members dead, a
congressional quagmire accusation, a war powers
deadline crossed and reached the conclusion that the force was
not the right decision. Trump responded to the polling
by questioning its methodology. He said the question was biased
against him, that polls on Iran are totally fake, and that even
a question about whether Iran should have a nuclear weapon
would not substantially change his numbers.
His skepticism about poll methodology is not without any
basis. The precise wording of questions
about complex military decisions does affect responses in ways
that are difficult to control. But 36% is not a figure produced
by one outlets idiosyncratic methodology if replicated across
different polling organizations, and no contradictory poll has
been cited by the administration.
It describes a country in which the president is prosecuting a
war that the majority of his own citizens, looking back, do not
endorse. The Trump administration sent
letters to Congress on Friday formally declaring the
hostilities with Iran have terminated the legal claim
needed to cross the 60 day war powers threshold without
authorization within hours. Speaking in Florida, Trump said.
You know we're in a war. That juxtaposition, termination
of hostilities to Congress, acknowledgement of war to a
Florida audience, Is the administration managing its
constitutional exposure and its political base through different
registers simultaneously? To Congress, the clock stopped,
no authorization needed. To the base, the war is ongoing,
worth fighting, and you know it. Both statements are politically
necessary. Neither is fully compatible with
the other. And on Monday, AUS destroyer in
the Strait either was or was not fired upon by Iranian missiles.
And either outcome has implications for at least one of
those two positions. The 31 Iranian tankers carrying
53,000,000 barrels of oil trapped in the Persian Gulf are
the most specific available quantification of what the
blockade has actually achieved as an economic instrument, Axios
reported the figure, citing Pentagon officials.
At current oil prices, 53,000,000 barrels represents
approximately $5 billion in crude oil value sitting in the
hulls of ships that cannot unload their cargo, cannot
return to Iranian ports for reloading, and cannot sail to
buyers because the US blockade intercept them on route.
The tankers are warehouses that cannot be opened.
The oil is revenue that cannot be collected.
The blockades economic impact operates through three
simultaneous channels. The first, Iran cannot export
the oil it has. 31 tankers worth of accumulated production is
sitting in the Gulf rather than being delivered to buyers.
The second, Iran cannot produce new oil at normal rates because
it cannot clear existing production from storage
facilities and tanker capacity. The pipeline backs up behind the
block distribution system. The card island storage filling
up is the land based equivalent of the trapped tankers
production backing up behind a block distribution system.
The third, the US Global Blockade intercept, shadow fleet
tankers attempting to move Iranian oil beyond the Strait,
removing Iran's primary mechanism for routing around the
hormones closure that has served it throughout the sanctions era.
All three channels of the blockades economic impact are
operating simultaneously and compounding each other.
The 53,000,000 barrel figure is also a measure of how long the
blockade has been effective. 48 days of blockade since April
13th at Iran's pre war production of approximately 3
and a half million barrels per day with a large percentage
blocked from export produces A trapped cargo of this scale.
The figure is not static. Every day the blockade
continues, more barrels are added to the accumulation.
Every day those tankers sit in the Gulf without unloading,
Iran's fiscal position deteriorates further.
The economic cost of not making the nuclear concession is
compounding daily toward the threshold where it exceeds the
political cost of making it if it is not already crossed it.
The South Korean operated vessel caught fire after an explosion
in the Strait of Hormuz on Monday.
South Korea's Foreign Ministry confirmed the ship was carrying
24 crew members, including six South Korean nationals.
All crew were reported safe. The vessel will be towed to a
nearby port for inspection and repairs.
The cause of the fire with a missile strike, drone minded
nation or accident had not been officially confirmed as of this
episode's recording. South Korea is one of Iran's
most significant pre war oil customers and is not a party to
the US Iran conflict in any military sense.
A South Korean vessel Catching Fire in the straight in the
middle of a confrontation between the US Navy and the IRGC
is the kind of event that draws additional navies, additional
diplomatic protests and additional international
attention to the straight at a moment when the operations
commercial credibility is already being questioned.
Seoul's Foreign Ministry was monitoring the situation closely
and said it would carry out investigations once the vessel
was towed to port. Monday's confrontation in the
Strait did not produce a formal breakdown of the ceasefire.
No new American bombs fell on Iranian territory, no Iranian
missiles. Whatever fired whatever target
on Monday landed on American military bases across the
region. The ceasefire in its most
minimal and technical definition held through the day, but the
architecture that has sustained it, the implicit understanding
that both sides are exercising meaningful restraint in exchange
for a diplomatic process through Pakistan, is under the most
severe operational stress it has faced since the agreement was
announced on April 8th. The ceasefire is being held
together by three things simultaneously.
The proposal exchange through Pakistan which is now bi
directional with both sides sending written documents and
Iran reviewing AUS response. The two Scott crew release a
small but real coordinated confidence building action that
both governments participated in on Monday and the private track
that trump confirmed on Thursday.
The one only he and a handful of others understand which he
described on Sunday as producing very positive discussions.
Those three things are the architecture of a ceasefire that
is still by the narrowest of margins.
Holding set against them are IRGC missile claims denied by
CENTCOM, US fast boat destruction denied by Iran, a
South Korean vessel on fire in a straight 36% public support for
the war, and a shipping insurance industry that says it
has no idea how the guided transit operation is being
coordinated with Iran, if at all.
The 2 Scott crew is free and on their way to Pakistani
authorities. The proposals are flowing in
both directions through Pakistan, The Strait is
producing military confrontations and the ceasefire
by the narrowest of margins and in the most technical of census,
is still intact. If this podcast is helping you
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This has been episode 67 of Epic Fury the US Iran war podcast
episode 67. Iran fired at AUS destroyer. the
US destroyed Iranian fast boats. Both sides deny the others
account. 2 merchant ships cross the Strait.
The insurance industry has no idea how it's being coordinated
with Iran. The 2 Scott crew is free.
Trump told Congress hostilities terminated, then told Florida
we're in a war. Only 36% of Americans think the
war was the right call. 53,000,000 barrels of Iranian
oil are sitting in the Gulf in tankers that cannot reach their
buyers and cannot unload. The ceasefire holds a name under
gunfire, under competing claims and under the narrowest of
possible margins. We will be back very soon.