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Trump said the negotiations were
in the final stages. 

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He said either there would be a 
deal or the United States would 

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do some things that are a little
bit nasty. 

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Iran's Revolutionary Guard 
threatened that if any further 

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attack came, the fire would 
erupt into flames and transcend 

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every border and domain. 
A tense phone call between Trump

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and Israeli Prime Minister 
Netanyahu revealed that a letter

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of intent was being drafted to 
formally end the war and open 30

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days of structured negotiation 
covering both the Strait of 

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Hormuz and Iran's nuclear 
program. 

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The Senate advanced a War Powers
Resolution 50 to 47. 

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The House was set to hold its 
own vote. 90 vessels have been 

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redirected by the United States 
naval blockade. 

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Two Chinese super tankers 
carrying approximately 4 million

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barrels of oil exited the Strait
of Hormuz. 

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Iran said 26 ships transited the
waterway in the preceding 24 

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hours under Iranian 
coordination, and Brent crude 

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sat just below $110 a barrel. 
Stillwell above any level seen 

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before this conflict began. 
It is Thursday May 21st, 2026, 

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Day 83 of Operation Epic Fury. 
83 days in, and the word that 

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best describes where this stands
is precarious. 

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Trump says the talks are in 
their final stages. 

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Iran says it is still ready for 
war on a scale that transcends 

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the region. 
A letter of intent is reportedly

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being written, a war powers 
clock is running, and the Strait

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of Hormuz is moving slowly under
contested rules that no one has 

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formally agreed to. 
This is epic fury, the US Iran 

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war podcast. 
Follow on Spotify and Apple 

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00:02:00,240 --> 00:02:03,080
podcast to stay with this story 
as it develops. 

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There is a great deal to get 
through today. 

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Start with the Trump statement 
that set the tone for Wednesday 

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because it contained both of the
contradictory impulses that have

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defined American posture 
throughout this conflict. 

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Diplomatic optimism and military
threat delivered in the same 

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breath. 
Speaking to reporters at the 

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White House, Trump said, and the
phrasing is worth noting 

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closely. 
We are in the final stages of 

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Iran. 
He said a deal was possible. 

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He then said that if no deal was
reached, the United States would

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do some things that are a little
bit nasty. 

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He added. 
If I can save war by waiting a 

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couple of days, if I can save 
people from being killed by 

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waiting a couple of days, I 
think it is a great thing. 3 

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distinct things were happening 
in that statement 

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simultaneously. 
It signaled that a diplomatic 

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resolution was genuinely within 
reach. 

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The phrase final stages 
represents a more specific and 

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more optimistic claim than 
anything coming from Washington.

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In weeks, it renewed the threat 
of military action. 

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And it framed Trump's continued 
patience not as indecision or 

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weakness but as a deliberate 
choice to preserve life, an 

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implicit rejection of the 
criticism that he had been 

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managing the conflict without a 
coherent end game. 

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Whether that framing resonates 
with the audience in Tehran is 

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another question entirely. 
Iranian officials have 

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repeatedly argued across 83 days
of this conflict that American 

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optimism about imminent deals 
has invariably been followed by 

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threats, renewed strikes and an 
expanding naval blockade. 

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Their threshold for accepting 
American diplomatic signals as 

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genuine has been worn down by 
the experience of the conflict 

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itself. 
Vice President JD Vance, who led

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the American delegation at the 
only round of direct talks held 

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so far in Islamabad last month, 
struck A deliberately careful 

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note at a White House briefing 
on Wednesday. 

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He said in his words, we are in 
a pretty good spot here. 

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That phrasing, understated and 
noncommittal, was almost 

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certainly calibrated to avoid 
raising expectations that could 

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be dashed within hours. 
That pattern has repeated itself

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many times in this negotiation. 
The most consequential piece of 

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new information to emerge on 
Wednesday was the reported 

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contents of a phone call between
Trump and Israeli Prime Minister

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Benjamin Netanyahu, described by
both Axios and the Wall Street 

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Journal as tents. 
According to those accounts, 

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Trump told Netanyahu that a 
letter of intent was being 

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drafted, a document that would 
formally bring hostilities to an

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end and establish a 30 day 
window for direct negotiation 

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covering both the Strait of 
Hormuz and Iran's nuclear 

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program. 
The word tense is doing 

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significant work in those 
accounts. 

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Israel has consistently 
maintained throughout this 

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conflict that the nuclear 
question cannot be deferred to a

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later phase, that any 
arrangement which simply reopens

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the Straight and creates a new 
diplomatic timetable without 

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concrete and upfront nuclear 
commitments from Tehran risks 

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repeating the fundamental error 
of every previous agreement. 

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The concern expressed privately 
by Israeli officials over the 

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course of the past several weeks
is that Iran uses negotiating 

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windows to reconstitute degraded
capabilities rather than 

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surrender them. 
The period immediately after the

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April ceasefire, during which 
CENTCOM confirmed the IRGC did 

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use the pause to tighten its 
grip on the Straight, was cited 

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as evidence for that concern. 
Trump, by contrast, appears 

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willing to accept a phased 
approach in the shooting first, 

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then address the underlying 
structural questions through a 

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bounded diplomatic process. 
That position reflects a reading

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of Iranian internal politics 
shared by some American 

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analysts, that the current 
Iranian leadership cannot make 

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concessions on the nuclear 
question while under active 

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military bombardment, and that a
formal end to hostilities is a 

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precondition for creating the 
political space in which a more 

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durable agreement becomes 
achievable. 

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That gap between Washington's 
apparent willingness to phase 

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the nuclear question and 
Jerusalem's insistence that 

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cannot be decoupled from any 
settlement has not been closed. 

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The letter of intent, if it 
materializes, will need to 

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satisfy both parties. 
That means it will need to 

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contain enough on the nuclear 
question to give Israel 

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confidence while being 
structured in a way that Iran 

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can accept without appearing to 
capitulate under the rest. 

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Finding language that 
accomplishes both simultaneously

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is an extraordinarily difficult 
diplomatic task. 

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The history of Iran negotiations
over the past two decades 

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suggests it is not impossible, 
but it has never been attempted 

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under conditions remotely like 
these. 

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Move from Washington to Tehran 
because Iran's signals on 

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Wednesday were equally divided 
between escalatory threat and 

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apparent operational 
accommodation, a duality that is

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characterized every day of the 
post ceasefire phase. 

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On the threatening side, IRGC 
leader Ahmad Vahidi published a 

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statement on social media that 
was extraordinary in its scope 

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and deliberate in its escalatory
framing. 

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He wrote that if any further 
aggression was committed against

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the soil of Iran, the fire whose
promise was previously given and

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which had remained confined 
within the framework of a 

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limited regional war, with this 
time erupt into flames and 

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transcend every border and 
domain. 

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That formulation is a 
significant and deliberate 

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escalation in language. 
Previous Iranian military 

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threats during this conflict 
targeted specific countries, 

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specific facilities, and the 
regional theater of operations. 

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This language implied something 
categorically wider. 

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The phrase transcend every 
border and domain carries 

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connotations of attacks beyond 
the Middle East entirely, a 

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signal to Washington that 
restarting the military campaign

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would not necessarily produce 
only the regional consequences 

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already experienced across 83 
days of war. 

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Whether this is operational 
intent or to deterrent rhetoric,

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it cannot be dismissed without 
engagement. 

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Iranian Parliament Speaker 
Mohammed Baker Calabaf, who has 

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served as Tehran's chief 
negotiator in the Pakistan 

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mediated peace process, also 
released an audio message on 

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Wednesday. 
He said that obvious and hidden 

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moves by the enemy show the 
Americans are preparing new 

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attacks. 
The framing was consistent with 

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a posture Iran has maintained 
throughout the ceasefire and 

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negotiating period, publicly 
asserting American bad faith and

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aggressive intent while 
simultaneously continuing to 

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engage through the diplomatic 
channels Pakistan has 

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maintained. 
On the apparent accommodation 

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side, Iran's Revolutionary Guard
Navy announced on Wednesday that

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26 vessels, including oil 
tankers, container ships and 

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other commercial vessels, had 
transited the Strait of Hormuz 

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in the preceding 24 hours. 
The IRGC Navy stated that this 

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transit was ongoing, with 
permits obtained and 

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coordination with its forces 
carried out. 

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This is the crux of one of the 
most contested and fundamental 

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disputes in the entire 
negotiation. 

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When Iran says the Strait is 
open, it means open. 

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Under Iranian coordination. 
Ships wishing to transit must 

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obtain Iranian permission and 
operate under IRGC protocols. 

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When the United States says the 
Strait must be open, it means 

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open as a matter of 
international law, freely 

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navigable by all vessels as of 
right, without Iranian approval 

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or fees or conditions. 
Rubio made this distinction 

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explicit in a Fox News interview
earlier this week. 

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He said in his own words, what 
Iran means by opening the 

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straits is yes, the straits are 
opened as long as you coordinate

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with Iran and get the 
permission, or they will blow 

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you up and you pay them, he 
said. 

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That is not opening the straits.
Those are international 

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waterways. 
That definitional dispute has 

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not been resolved. 26 ships 
transiting under Iranian 

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coordination is, in the eyes of 
Washington, not the same as the 

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Strait of Hormuz being freely 
and unconditionally open. 

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The figure nonetheless 
represents the largest single 

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day transit count since the war 
began. 

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A separate and notable 
development on Wednesday came 

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from Chinese shipping. 
Two Chinese super tankers 

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carrying approximately 4 million
barrels of oil exited the Strait

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of Hormuz, according to Reuters.
The third Chinese vessel was 

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reported to be making its way 
out. 

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Last week, while Trump was in 
Beijing for his summit with 

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President Xi, Iran announced it 
had reached a separate 

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arrangement to ease transit 
rules specifically for Chinese 

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flagships. 
The arrangement underscores how 

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the Straits contested status has
produced a patchwork of 

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bilateral accommodations that 
fall far short of the universal 

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00:10:20,440 --> 00:10:23,240
freedom of navigation the United
States and International 

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00:10:23,240 --> 00:10:26,400
Maritime law demand. 
South Korea's foreign minister 

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00:10:26,400 --> 00:10:29,640
confirmed on Wednesday that a 
South Korean tanker was also 

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00:10:29,640 --> 00:10:33,040
crossing the Strait under 
Iranian coordination protocols. 

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00:10:33,560 --> 00:10:37,200
Shipping monitor Lloyd's List 
reported that at least 54 ships 

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had transited the waterway in 
the preceding week, 

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approximately double the figure 
from the week before. 

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For context, the pre war daily 
transit figure was approximately

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00:10:46,440 --> 00:10:49,920
140 vessels. 
Current levels, even at their 

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00:10:49,920 --> 00:10:53,600
highest point since the conflict
began, remain a fraction of 

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00:10:53,600 --> 00:10:57,200
normal commercial volume. 
The global supply disruption has

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00:10:57,200 --> 00:11:01,440
moderated incrementally, but it 
has not ended. the United States

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00:11:01,440 --> 00:11:03,600
naval blockade continued its 
operations. 

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00:11:03,600 --> 00:11:06,360
On Wednesday. 
CENTCOM confirmed that 90 

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00:11:06,360 --> 00:11:09,640
vessels had now been redirected 
since the blockade was imposed 

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00:11:09,640 --> 00:11:13,120
in mid-april and that four 
vessels had been disabled. the 

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00:11:13,120 --> 00:11:17,560
United States Marine Corps AH1Z 
Viper attack helicopter was 

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00:11:17,560 --> 00:11:20,200
patrolling near a commercial 
vessel transiting regional 

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00:11:20,200 --> 00:11:22,320
waters as part of the 
enforcement operation. 

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00:11:22,840 --> 00:11:25,960
The blockade imposed following 
the collapse of the Islamabad 

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00:11:25,960 --> 00:11:29,280
talks remains one of the most 
significant escalations of the 

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00:11:29,280 --> 00:11:33,040
post ceasefire phase. 
Iran has described it as an act 

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00:11:33,040 --> 00:11:36,080
of war. 
Tehran seized 2 cargo ships in 

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00:11:36,080 --> 00:11:39,880
retaliation shortly after its 
imposition. the United States 

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00:11:39,880 --> 00:11:42,920
has framed it as a pressure 
mechanism designed to deny Iran 

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00:11:42,920 --> 00:11:46,280
the oil export revenues that 
sustain its military capacity 

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00:11:46,480 --> 00:11:48,840
and the Irgc's broader 
operations. 

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00:11:49,280 --> 00:11:52,080
The lifting of the blockade is 
among the conditions Iran has 

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00:11:52,080 --> 00:11:55,560
specified as a precondition for 
any comprehensive settlement 

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00:11:55,760 --> 00:11:59,600
alongside sanctions relief and 
withdrawal of American forces 

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00:11:59,600 --> 00:12:02,880
from forward position bases. 
Consider the domestic political 

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00:12:02,880 --> 00:12:05,200
dimension. 
Because the war powers question 

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00:12:05,200 --> 00:12:08,320
reached a procedural threshold 
on Tuesday and Wednesday that 

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00:12:08,320 --> 00:12:11,080
carries genuine political 
significance even if its 

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00:12:11,080 --> 00:12:13,480
immediate legal consequences are
limited. 

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00:12:13,880 --> 00:12:18,000
The Senate voted 50 to 47 on 
Tuesday to advance a war powers 

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00:12:18,000 --> 00:12:20,120
resolution that would require 
the president to see 

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00:12:20,120 --> 00:12:23,560
congressional authorization to 
continue military operations 

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00:12:23,560 --> 00:12:26,440
against Iran or begin 
withdrawing forces. 

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00:12:26,880 --> 00:12:30,160
The measure advanced after a 
Republican senator broke with 

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00:12:30,160 --> 00:12:33,960
the administration to support 
it. 3 senators were absent. 

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00:12:34,400 --> 00:12:37,600
It was a procedural advance 
rather than a final passage, but

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00:12:37,600 --> 00:12:41,160
the 50 to 47 margin was read 
widely in Washington as a 

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00:12:41,160 --> 00:12:44,360
meaningful indicator that 
Republican unity on the Iran war

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00:12:44,360 --> 00:12:47,400
is beginning to fracture. 
On Wednesday, the House was 

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00:12:47,400 --> 00:12:50,760
expected to hold a parallel vote
on its own version of a War 

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00:12:50,760 --> 00:12:54,080
Powers Resolution directing 
Trump to withdraw United States 

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00:12:54,080 --> 00:12:57,560
forces deployed against Iran. 
The two chambers working on 

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00:12:57,560 --> 00:13:01,360
parallel tracks reflects the 
sustained and bipartisan nature 

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of the discomfort with a 
conflict legal basis. 

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The core issue is the 60 day 
clock. 

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Under the 1973 War Powers Act, a
president generally has 60 days 

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00:13:11,800 --> 00:13:13,840
from the commencement of 
hostilities to obtain 

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00:13:13,840 --> 00:13:17,440
congressional authorization 
formally in the military action 

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or seek a limited extension 
while beginning to withdrawal of

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00:13:20,360 --> 00:13:23,480
forces. 
Operation Epic Fury commenced on

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00:13:23,480 --> 00:13:27,640
February the 28th. 
The 60 day deadline passed on 

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April the 28th. 
That clock has been running 

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00:13:30,560 --> 00:13:33,520
beyond its limit for more than 
three weeks under an 

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00:13:33,520 --> 00:13:36,320
administration that argues it 
was stopped by the April 

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ceasefire. 
The White House's position that 

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the ceasefire terminated 
hostilities and stop the clock 

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00:13:42,360 --> 00:13:45,720
is contested by legal scholars 
and by the legislators driving 

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00:13:45,720 --> 00:13:48,720
the war powers votes. 
Critics point to the ongoing 

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00:13:48,720 --> 00:13:51,840
naval blockade, the continued 
positioning of American strike 

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00:13:51,840 --> 00:13:55,520
aircraft and carrier groups. 
An explicit presidential threat 

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00:13:55,520 --> 00:13:58,720
of renewed bombing is evidence 
that hostilities have not ended 

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00:13:58,720 --> 00:14:01,800
in any legally coherent sense. 
The gap between the 

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00:14:01,800 --> 00:14:04,960
administration's framing of the 
conflict is concluded and the 

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00:14:04,960 --> 00:14:08,120
operational reality of an active
blockade and ready strike 

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00:14:08,120 --> 00:14:11,160
posture is the ground on which 
that legal contest is being 

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fought. 
Even if both chambers pass their

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00:14:13,600 --> 00:14:16,800
respective resolutions, a 
presidential veto would require 

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00:14:16,800 --> 00:14:20,960
a 2/3 majority in each chamber 
to override a threshold that 

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00:14:20,960 --> 00:14:23,960
remains out of reach. 
The votes carry political weight

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00:14:23,960 --> 00:14:26,640
is a signal of growing 
institutional unease. 

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00:14:26,960 --> 00:14:30,000
But they will not produce an 
immediate operational constraint

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00:14:30,000 --> 00:14:31,840
on the president's military 
authority. 

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00:14:32,240 --> 00:14:35,200
Energy markets on Wednesday 
responded cautiously to the 

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00:14:35,200 --> 00:14:38,040
combined weight of Trump's 
optimistic language and the 

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00:14:38,040 --> 00:14:41,960
Chinese super tanker movements. 
Brent crude eased approximately 

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00:14:41,960 --> 00:14:46,040
1 1/2% to sit just below $110 
per barrel. 

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Analysts at Wood McKenzie 
estimated that if a 

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00:14:48,920 --> 00:14:52,000
comprehensive peace deal were 
reached and the straight fully 

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00:14:52,000 --> 00:14:55,800
reopened by June, Brent could 
ease to approximately $80 per 

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00:14:55,800 --> 00:14:58,720
barrel by the end of the year. 
The distance between current 

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00:14:58,720 --> 00:15:02,160
prices and that scenario 
represents the accumulated 

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00:15:02,160 --> 00:15:04,720
economic cost to the conflict 
continuation. 

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00:15:05,240 --> 00:15:09,960
American pump prices reached 
$4.18 per gallon by Tuesday, a 

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00:15:09,960 --> 00:15:12,880
new war high. 
Trump, speaking at the United 

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00:15:12,880 --> 00:15:15,720
States Coast Guard Academy 
commencement on Wednesday, 

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00:15:15,960 --> 00:15:18,960
minimize the economic burden on 
American consumers. 

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00:15:19,400 --> 00:15:22,520
He told a graduating class he 
appreciated everybody putting up

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00:15:22,520 --> 00:15:25,280
with it for a little while and 
said it would not be much 

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00:15:25,280 --> 00:15:27,720
longer. 
He also highlighted the Coast 

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00:15:27,720 --> 00:15:30,840
Guard's role in the war, in 
particular the seizure of a 

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00:15:30,840 --> 00:15:34,360
sanctioned Iranian oil tanker 
off the coast of Malaysia, which

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00:15:34,360 --> 00:15:37,480
he described as the third such 
vessel captured since the real 

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00:15:37,480 --> 00:15:40,160
fighting began. 
There is also a Lebanon 

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00:15:40,160 --> 00:15:43,520
dimension to Wednesday's picture
that deserves attention. 

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00:15:44,080 --> 00:15:47,480
The ceasefire along the Israeli 
Lebanese border, agreed in the 

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00:15:47,480 --> 00:15:50,280
weeks after the April pause, has
been fragmenting. 

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00:15:50,720 --> 00:15:54,000
Israeli strikes in southern 
Lebanon killed more than a dozen

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00:15:54,000 --> 00:15:57,400
people in what was described as 
the deadliest day since the 

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00:15:57,400 --> 00:15:59,480
Lebanon ceasefire went into 
effect. 

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00:15:59,920 --> 00:16:03,000
Hezbollah has not formally 
abandoned a ceasefire, but the 

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00:16:03,000 --> 00:16:06,760
pattern of Israeli strikes and 
Hezbollah repositioning suggests

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00:16:06,760 --> 00:16:08,760
the arrangement is under growing
pressure. 

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00:16:09,240 --> 00:16:11,960
From Tehran's perspective, 
Lebanon is one of the fronts 

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00:16:11,960 --> 00:16:15,200
that retains his leverage. 
Any deal that formally ends the 

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00:16:15,200 --> 00:16:18,120
war with the United States but 
leaves Hezbollah degraded and 

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00:16:18,120 --> 00:16:21,520
Iran unable to reconstitute its 
Lebanon position would be a 

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00:16:21,520 --> 00:16:25,320
significant strategic loss. 
That calculus is part of what 

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00:16:25,320 --> 00:16:27,640
makes the negotiations so 
complex. 

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00:16:28,120 --> 00:16:31,640
Iran is not just negotiating 
about its own territory and 

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00:16:31,640 --> 00:16:35,400
nuclear program, is negotiating 
about the shape of its regional 

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00:16:35,400 --> 00:16:38,720
influence network that was 
partially dismantled during 83 

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00:16:38,720 --> 00:16:40,960
days of American and Israeli 
strikes. 

306
00:16:41,400 --> 00:16:44,600
The oil storage picture also 
remains a significant pressure 

307
00:16:44,600 --> 00:16:47,800
point on the Iranian side. 
Intelligence assessments in 

308
00:16:47,800 --> 00:16:51,120
recent days suggested Iran's 
domestic oil storage capacity 

309
00:16:51,120 --> 00:16:54,360
was approaching its limits, with
estimates that Iran had between 

310
00:16:54,360 --> 00:16:57,920
12 and 22 days of viable storage
remaining for ongoing 

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00:16:57,920 --> 00:16:59,720
production. 
If exports continue to be 

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00:16:59,720 --> 00:17:02,440
blocked, that is a material 
constraint. 

313
00:17:02,960 --> 00:17:06,880
A country that cannot store or 
export its oil faces an internal

314
00:17:06,880 --> 00:17:09,480
economic crisis with political 
consequences. 

315
00:17:09,920 --> 00:17:12,880
The naval blockade, from the 
American perspective, is 

316
00:17:12,880 --> 00:17:15,720
designed precisely to accelerate
that pressure. 

317
00:17:16,280 --> 00:17:18,520
The question is whether it 
reaches a breaking point that 

318
00:17:18,520 --> 00:17:22,520
forces Iranian concessions or 
whether Iran finds enough work 

319
00:17:22,520 --> 00:17:25,800
around routes, through Chinese 
buyers, through informal 

320
00:17:25,800 --> 00:17:29,280
arrangements, through continued 
limited straight access to 

321
00:17:29,280 --> 00:17:32,080
sustain itself until 
negotiations reach a conclusion.

322
00:17:32,600 --> 00:17:35,480
Step back and weigh the totality
of Wednesday's developments 

323
00:17:35,680 --> 00:17:38,440
because the dual pattern of 
simultaneous diplomacy and 

324
00:17:38,440 --> 00:17:41,720
threat was again on full 
display, and understanding why 

325
00:17:41,720 --> 00:17:44,760
both things can be true at once 
is essential for making sense of

326
00:17:44,760 --> 00:17:47,520
where this conflict currently 
stands on the side. 

327
00:17:47,520 --> 00:17:50,960
Pointing toward resolution, 
Trump described negotiations as 

328
00:17:50,960 --> 00:17:54,760
being in their final stages. 
Vince said the United States was

329
00:17:54,760 --> 00:17:57,720
in a good spot. 
A letter of intent formally 

330
00:17:57,720 --> 00:18:01,160
ending the war and establishing 
a 30 day negotiating framework 

331
00:18:01,160 --> 00:18:05,560
was reportedly being drafted. 26
vessels transited the Strait. 

332
00:18:05,960 --> 00:18:10,040
Chinese super tankers moved oil.
The Senate voted in a way that 

333
00:18:10,040 --> 00:18:13,280
added political urgency for 
concluding the conflict before 

334
00:18:13,280 --> 00:18:15,920
the war power situation becomes 
untenable. 

335
00:18:16,400 --> 00:18:19,880
Iran's chief negotiator remain 
engaged through Pakistani 

336
00:18:19,880 --> 00:18:23,320
channels on the side, pointing 
toward renewed conflict. 

337
00:18:23,680 --> 00:18:26,920
The IRGC warned that a new 
American attack would trigger a 

338
00:18:26,920 --> 00:18:29,680
war transcending every border 
and domain. 

339
00:18:30,080 --> 00:18:33,520
Calabaf publicly accused the 
United States of preparing new 

340
00:18:33,520 --> 00:18:36,240
strikes. 
The naval blockade continued, 

341
00:18:36,440 --> 00:18:40,480
with 90 vessels now redirected. 
The definitional gap over what a

342
00:18:40,480 --> 00:18:43,480
freely open straight means 
remained unresolved. 

343
00:18:43,960 --> 00:18:48,200
Trump simultaneously threatened 
nasty action, and a call between

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00:18:48,200 --> 00:18:51,720
Trump and Netanyahu was 
described as tense, suggesting 

345
00:18:51,720 --> 00:18:54,920
the United States and Israel are
not operating from a unified 

346
00:18:54,920 --> 00:18:57,440
position on the terms of any 
acceptable deal. 

347
00:18:57,840 --> 00:19:02,000
These two sets of signals have 
coexisted day after day, four 

348
00:19:02,000 --> 00:19:04,760
weeks. 
They are not as contradictory as

349
00:19:04,760 --> 00:19:07,800
they might appear. 
The pressure and the diplomacy 

350
00:19:07,800 --> 00:19:10,760
are running in deliberate 
parallel because each party 

351
00:19:10,760 --> 00:19:14,080
needs the other to believe it is
capable and willing to escalate,

352
00:19:14,440 --> 00:19:17,320
or the other side loses 
incentive to accept the deal on 

353
00:19:17,320 --> 00:19:19,280
offer. 
The question that has been 

354
00:19:19,280 --> 00:19:22,320
present throughout this conflict
is whether the mutual pressure 

355
00:19:22,320 --> 00:19:26,480
eventually produces convergence 
or tips into a miscalculation 

356
00:19:26,480 --> 00:19:30,360
that neither side can walk back.
The 30 day framework, reportedly

357
00:19:30,360 --> 00:19:34,200
under discussion formally in 
hostilities, then negotiate the 

358
00:19:34,200 --> 00:19:37,440
straight and the nuclear program
within a bounded window would 

359
00:19:37,440 --> 00:19:39,320
represent a structural 
compromise. 

360
00:19:39,760 --> 00:19:43,480
Iran has long demanded that the 
war end before nuclear talks 

361
00:19:43,480 --> 00:19:45,640
begin. 
The United States has long 

362
00:19:45,640 --> 00:19:49,440
insisted the nuclear question 
cannot be cleanly separated from

363
00:19:49,480 --> 00:19:52,120
any deal. 
If a letter of intent exists as 

364
00:19:52,120 --> 00:19:55,200
described, and if it is 
acceptable to both Tehran and 

365
00:19:55,200 --> 00:19:58,880
Jerusalem, that framework could 
split the immediate cessation of

366
00:19:58,880 --> 00:20:01,640
conflict from the longer term 
questions that neither side can 

367
00:20:01,640 --> 00:20:03,600
resolve while fighting remains 
possible. 

368
00:20:04,000 --> 00:20:06,840
Whether that document 
materializes and whether both 

369
00:20:06,840 --> 00:20:11,160
parties can endorse it will 
begin to become clear on Day 84.

370
00:20:11,560 --> 00:20:14,280
If this podcast is helping you 
make sense of what's happening, 

371
00:20:14,560 --> 00:20:18,080
take 2 seconds to leave a five 
star rating on Spotify or Apple 

372
00:20:18,080 --> 00:20:20,920
Podcasts. 
It makes a huge difference to 

373
00:20:20,920 --> 00:20:23,760
how many people find the show. 
And if you want the deeper 

374
00:20:23,760 --> 00:20:26,560
breakdown of what's really going
on and where this is heading, 

375
00:20:26,840 --> 00:20:30,160
you can unlock the premium 
episodes directly in Spotify or 

376
00:20:30,160 --> 00:20:33,160
Apple Podcasts. 
That is day 83. 

377
00:20:33,600 --> 00:20:36,640
The talks are described as being
in their final stages. 

378
00:20:37,080 --> 00:20:40,600
The threats describe a fire 
transcending every border. 

379
00:20:41,000 --> 00:20:43,400
A letter is reportedly being 
drafted. 

380
00:20:43,880 --> 00:20:47,320
Both of those things were said 
on the same day by different 

381
00:20:47,320 --> 00:20:50,000
parties, and both appear to be 
true at once. 

382
00:20:50,480 --> 00:20:53,040
That tension is where this 
conflict stands. 

383
00:20:53,440 --> 00:20:55,200
Back tomorrow with the latest.