1 00:00:01,360 --> 00:00:05,080 From India's largest newsroom, I'm Arun George and this is the 2 00:00:05,080 --> 00:00:20,160 Times of India podcast. What a difference a week makes. 3 00:00:20,680 --> 00:00:23,920 As of last week, ties between India and Canada were frosty, 4 00:00:24,160 --> 00:00:26,680 but as this weekend, they're almost hostile. 5 00:00:27,120 --> 00:00:30,000 That change in relationship came after Canadian Prime Minister 6 00:00:30,000 --> 00:00:33,000 Justin Trudeau told the Canadian Parliament that he believed. 7 00:00:33,330 --> 00:00:35,770 India was involved in the killing of a Sikh separatist 8 00:00:35,770 --> 00:00:37,970 group leader in June in the town of Sari. 9 00:00:38,090 --> 00:00:41,890 Over the past number of weeks, Canadian security agencies have 10 00:00:41,890 --> 00:00:46,490 been actively pursuing credible allegations of a potential link 11 00:00:47,170 --> 00:00:51,050 between agents of the Government of India and the killing of a 12 00:00:51,050 --> 00:00:54,250 Canadian citizen, Hardeep Singh Nijar. 13 00:00:55,210 --> 00:00:57,770 This allegation came even as the Canadian police said that the 14 00:00:57,770 --> 00:01:01,150 investigation was still ongoing. No one has been arrested or 15 00:01:01,150 --> 00:01:03,910 charged with the murder yet, as on Thursday, the 21st of 16 00:01:03,910 --> 00:01:07,350 September, Canada also sent back an Indian diplomat over the 17 00:01:07,350 --> 00:01:09,510 killing. Not surprisingly, it has 18 00:01:09,510 --> 00:01:11,550 prompted a storm in India. I thought so. 19 00:01:11,590 --> 00:01:13,710 That is an extremely disappointing development. 20 00:01:13,870 --> 00:01:18,070 And Justin Trudeau is appeasing the terrorist groups by backing 21 00:01:18,070 --> 00:01:21,710 Kalitali terrorists openly and trying to take on India. 22 00:01:23,060 --> 00:01:25,860 Since the allegations were leveled, India has retaliated in 23 00:01:25,860 --> 00:01:28,460 multiple ways. It first sent back a Canadian 24 00:01:28,460 --> 00:01:30,820 diplomat. Then it issued an advisory for 25 00:01:30,820 --> 00:01:34,380 Indian citizens living and travelling to Canada and warned 26 00:01:34,380 --> 00:01:37,180 them against anti Indian activities taking place there. 27 00:01:37,180 --> 00:01:40,540 And on Thursday the 21st of September, it stopped issuing 28 00:01:40,540 --> 00:01:42,420 visas for Canadians to visit India. 29 00:01:42,660 --> 00:01:45,020 You are aware of the security threats being faced by our High 30 00:01:45,020 --> 00:01:46,500 Commission and consulates in Canada. 31 00:01:47,140 --> 00:01:49,660 This has disrupted their normal functioning. 32 00:01:50,270 --> 00:01:53,030 Accordingly, our High Commission and consulates are temporarily 33 00:01:53,150 --> 00:01:55,430 unable to process visa applications. 34 00:01:55,950 --> 00:01:58,550 We will be reviewing the situation on a regular basis. 35 00:01:59,070 --> 00:02:02,590 This collapse of ties comes even as India and Canada are linked 36 00:02:02,590 --> 00:02:04,950 more closely than ever before in their histories. 37 00:02:05,230 --> 00:02:08,590 Nearly 1,00,000 Indians work and study in Canada, and thousands 38 00:02:08,590 --> 00:02:11,870 have emigrated to that country. Economic ties are also deeper 39 00:02:11,870 --> 00:02:14,190 than they've ever been. But what happens now? 40 00:02:14,590 --> 00:02:17,270 To understand that, we spoke with two former diplomats from 41 00:02:17,270 --> 00:02:19,710 both nations. Former ambassador Anil 42 00:02:19,710 --> 00:02:22,790 Trigunayat served as India's ambassador to multiple nations 43 00:02:22,990 --> 00:02:25,750 and is a distinguished fellow at the think tank Vivekananand the 44 00:02:25,750 --> 00:02:28,750 international Foundation. My colleague Pinaki Chakraborty 45 00:02:28,750 --> 00:02:31,110 spoke with him on Wednesday, the 20th of September. 46 00:02:31,310 --> 00:02:34,310 That is prior to the visa stoppage and travel advisory, 47 00:02:34,550 --> 00:02:37,030 and they spoke about India's response to the allegations by 48 00:02:37,030 --> 00:02:39,230 Canada. The former diplomat spoke about 49 00:02:39,230 --> 00:02:42,230 why India can't take the allegations seriously and that 50 00:02:42,230 --> 00:02:45,070 the allegations are a byproduct of domestic politics. 51 00:02:45,590 --> 00:02:48,230 Anil 3 Guna It says that India has constantly raised the issue 52 00:02:48,230 --> 00:02:51,390 of Khalistani groups operating from Canada, but has never seen 53 00:02:51,390 --> 00:02:56,150 any concrete action. The fact remains is that it is 54 00:02:56,350 --> 00:02:59,910 the Canadians who have not addressed India's genuine 55 00:02:59,910 --> 00:03:05,470 concerns and have allowed the entire India activities to 56 00:03:05,470 --> 00:03:08,190 proliferate. In Canada, we have seen the 57 00:03:08,190 --> 00:03:12,590 Khalistani movement, which has continued to once again rise its 58 00:03:12,670 --> 00:03:14,710 ugly head. We have seen that there have 59 00:03:14,710 --> 00:03:17,590 been attacks in Canada. There have been threats to the 60 00:03:17,590 --> 00:03:19,870 Indian diplomats. There have been protests against 61 00:03:19,870 --> 00:03:23,270 India, including a referendum, Palestine referendum, which is 62 00:03:23,270 --> 00:03:26,790 directly impeded on India's sovereignty and territorial 63 00:03:26,790 --> 00:03:29,550 integrity. So I think that the Canadian 64 00:03:29,550 --> 00:03:33,470 actions are then not that of a friend or even a country that 65 00:03:33,510 --> 00:03:35,010 wishes. Good for you. 66 00:03:35,290 --> 00:03:38,770 It is essentially against India's interests and therefore 67 00:03:38,770 --> 00:03:43,170 we have protested all the time against their actions, against 68 00:03:43,170 --> 00:03:45,810 the government's action. And their complicity is very 69 00:03:45,810 --> 00:03:48,410 clear. Mr. Justin Trudeau, you remember 70 00:03:48,410 --> 00:03:51,410 when he came on a bilateral visit here at that time, he 71 00:03:51,410 --> 00:03:55,970 brought in these sick extremist gentlemen with him and that was 72 00:03:55,970 --> 00:03:58,010 in violation of India's hospitality. 73 00:03:58,290 --> 00:04:01,890 Second time now when he was here waiting for the G20. 74 00:04:02,270 --> 00:04:05,950 At that time, India showed hospitality and civility but at 75 00:04:05,950 --> 00:04:09,350 the same time he misused that abuse that and Prime Minister 76 00:04:09,350 --> 00:04:13,630 Modi took up on all these cases along with requisite evidences. 77 00:04:13,830 --> 00:04:17,550 But that is not something that really pleased him so much, and 78 00:04:17,550 --> 00:04:21,029 he raised this issue also about Kanisher's killing. 79 00:04:21,390 --> 00:04:24,990 Which was essentially, according to the reports from there were 80 00:04:24,990 --> 00:04:29,510 mainly an intergaging war and therefore he goes back. 81 00:04:29,630 --> 00:04:34,270 He accused the Indian agencies of some kind of a plot without 82 00:04:34,270 --> 00:04:37,990 any evidence, without any basis and therefore how do you take 83 00:04:38,030 --> 00:04:41,750 it? So whole idea is essentially to 84 00:04:41,750 --> 00:04:45,270 somehow cater to his constituency and trying to 85 00:04:45,270 --> 00:04:47,830 retrieve the lost ground and confidence. 86 00:04:48,510 --> 00:04:52,230 Unfortunately, among the terrorist oriented groupings. 87 00:04:53,310 --> 00:04:56,910 With Canada expelling Indian diplomats and vice versa, do you 88 00:04:56,910 --> 00:04:59,270 think it is a blow for diplomacy on both sides? 89 00:05:00,590 --> 00:05:04,350 Well, obviously if you come to think of it, these are extreme 90 00:05:04,350 --> 00:05:07,030 actions which are taken to expel diplomats. 91 00:05:07,310 --> 00:05:10,590 But if one country does it, it is a reciprocity that is invoked 92 00:05:10,590 --> 00:05:13,150 by the other country, in this case India. 93 00:05:13,570 --> 00:05:16,610 Which has always been a victim of terrorism at least for 40 94 00:05:16,610 --> 00:05:20,010 years, not from now. So instead of joining hands with 95 00:05:20,010 --> 00:05:24,010 India to eliminate terrorists, if you pander to the extremists 96 00:05:24,050 --> 00:05:27,210 and terrorists, then obviously there is no meeting ground there 97 00:05:27,490 --> 00:05:29,650 now. I see that relationship going 98 00:05:29,650 --> 00:05:33,610 downwards spiral now, rather than stabilizing in any short 99 00:05:33,610 --> 00:05:36,450 term. Why do you think that there has 100 00:05:36,450 --> 00:05:40,850 been a reluctance on part of Canada to deal with extremism in 101 00:05:40,850 --> 00:05:43,860 the country? Well, they are the constituency, 102 00:05:43,860 --> 00:05:47,500 they are the financials. British Columbia has the maximum 103 00:05:47,500 --> 00:05:51,420 Sikhs and they are also part of his government and he is being 104 00:05:51,420 --> 00:05:54,460 supported by Gurmeet Singhs party and so they are part of 105 00:05:54,460 --> 00:05:58,820 his coalition and that's why he has this, I would say choice he 106 00:05:58,820 --> 00:06:01,620 had to make between his political career and his 107 00:06:01,620 --> 00:06:05,460 diplomatic finesse. Has India has not been accused 108 00:06:05,460 --> 00:06:09,020 of this sort of activity before. Pakistan keeps on doing all the 109 00:06:09,060 --> 00:06:11,300 time. But barring Pakistan? 110 00:06:11,980 --> 00:06:14,900 How did you respond diplomatically at that point? 111 00:06:16,300 --> 00:06:19,220 You can accuse anybody for anything, but in this until you 112 00:06:19,220 --> 00:06:22,820 provide the proof or the evidence, it is really just a 113 00:06:22,820 --> 00:06:26,660 talk and you get the brownie points as the PR exercise. 114 00:06:26,660 --> 00:06:29,180 Thats it. The groups in in Canada they 115 00:06:29,180 --> 00:06:33,140 have linkages with the Pakistani groups people bakhalsa or others 116 00:06:33,140 --> 00:06:34,970 these. Canadians know it very well. 117 00:06:34,970 --> 00:06:37,530 Also. One must, I always say that 118 00:06:37,530 --> 00:06:40,450 these countries which tend to support extremists and 119 00:06:40,450 --> 00:06:44,850 terrorists must read the Basmasur theory in our Indian 120 00:06:44,850 --> 00:06:49,090 legends, which is it is going to bite them again, again and 121 00:06:49,090 --> 00:06:50,930 again. It is doing so in Pakistan. 122 00:06:50,930 --> 00:06:53,770 It will do so in Canada or any other country. 123 00:06:53,890 --> 00:06:56,290 But very often the Western countries, just to put you on 124 00:06:56,290 --> 00:06:59,930 the back foot, would come out with a human rights issues or 125 00:06:59,930 --> 00:07:02,650 something like that as far as terrorists are concerned. 126 00:07:03,070 --> 00:07:07,150 India does not believe in doing that, but it has to protect its 127 00:07:07,830 --> 00:07:09,750 sovereignty and territorial integrity. 128 00:07:11,110 --> 00:07:14,990 India has denied the allegations and responded to the retaliatory 129 00:07:14,990 --> 00:07:16,830 sending back of a Canadian diplomat. 130 00:07:17,390 --> 00:07:19,870 What typically would happen from this stage onwards? 131 00:07:21,350 --> 00:07:24,030 As the high commissioners are there, if the relationship 132 00:07:24,030 --> 00:07:27,390 further versus there may be a possibility of downgrading the 133 00:07:27,430 --> 00:07:30,430 ties to start the fair level when ambassador is not there in 134 00:07:30,430 --> 00:07:33,170 a country. Then the next officer who takes 135 00:07:33,170 --> 00:07:34,770 charge is called Charged Affairs. 136 00:07:35,250 --> 00:07:38,650 That is something that could happen that at a later stage if 137 00:07:38,650 --> 00:07:40,290 the situation continued to worsen. 138 00:07:40,810 --> 00:07:45,890 And it will also depend on if the Canadians do not take care 139 00:07:45,890 --> 00:07:47,290 of our diplomats in their country. 140 00:07:47,490 --> 00:07:49,770 That is the responsibility of the Canadian government. 141 00:07:49,890 --> 00:07:55,050 Secondly, how it plays out in the global outreach, how whether 142 00:07:55,050 --> 00:07:57,490 they continue to harp on the same thing, again without 143 00:07:57,490 --> 00:08:00,010 providing any evidence. If there is an evidence, ask for 144 00:08:00,250 --> 00:08:02,960 provide it. And deal with it without 145 00:08:02,960 --> 00:08:06,720 providing any evidence, simply accusing the country of doing 146 00:08:06,720 --> 00:08:09,240 something there where is there is nothing except your 147 00:08:09,480 --> 00:08:12,080 hypothesis. I think that that is something 148 00:08:12,080 --> 00:08:14,120 that is not going to work out effectively. 149 00:08:15,120 --> 00:08:17,760 Do you think that is India would be willing to investigate the 150 00:08:17,800 --> 00:08:21,280 claims candidate there is? No question of claims. 151 00:08:21,280 --> 00:08:23,680 I mean, you provide the evidence with the claim, then they can 152 00:08:23,680 --> 00:08:25,160 work together. I mean, we have always 153 00:08:25,160 --> 00:08:27,810 cooperated with them. With any country in the world. 154 00:08:28,090 --> 00:08:30,730 But you cant just accuse the country when there is no basis 155 00:08:30,730 --> 00:08:32,570 for it. If they have, they would have 156 00:08:32,570 --> 00:08:34,650 presented by now. If you see Trudeau, the 157 00:08:34,650 --> 00:08:36,730 statement to the foreign ministers, the statement, 158 00:08:37,090 --> 00:08:39,770 potential link, potential link, those are the kind of things 159 00:08:39,770 --> 00:08:41,530 theyre talking about. They know hardcore information. 160 00:08:41,850 --> 00:08:45,010 There is no evidence as to now, so lets see, I mean what they 161 00:08:45,010 --> 00:08:47,810 produce. Where do you see this setting 162 00:08:48,010 --> 00:08:50,970 concern, the fact that Canada needs Indias, one of the biggest 163 00:08:50,970 --> 00:08:53,980 business partners? And a lot of Indians go to 164 00:08:53,980 --> 00:08:56,620 Canada to either settle down, study or work. 165 00:08:57,820 --> 00:09:01,340 I think that it will all depend which way in my view or the 166 00:09:01,380 --> 00:09:03,820 gradients take it India's response. 167 00:09:03,820 --> 00:09:06,980 In my view they are not precipitating it by itself. 168 00:09:07,100 --> 00:09:09,300 It was been precipitated by the gradients. 169 00:09:09,860 --> 00:09:13,380 And if they want to go this way, then I don't see that the 170 00:09:13,380 --> 00:09:18,100 relationship is going to move on a higher orbit anytime soon. 171 00:09:26,750 --> 00:09:29,990 Jeff Nankeville, who is the president and CEO of the think 172 00:09:29,990 --> 00:09:33,430 tank Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada, also admits the ties 173 00:09:33,430 --> 00:09:35,750 between the two nations don't look like they're going to 174 00:09:35,750 --> 00:09:38,790 improve anytime soon. However, he says it's unlikely 175 00:09:38,790 --> 00:09:41,150 Canada will escalate things anytime soon. 176 00:09:41,630 --> 00:09:44,750 He spoke with me from Vancouver on Thursday morning to try and 177 00:09:44,750 --> 00:09:47,430 explain how the entire incident is being viewed in Canada. 178 00:09:47,790 --> 00:09:50,350 He talks about the domestic political compulsions that are 179 00:09:50,350 --> 00:09:53,150 believed to have prompted Justin Trudeau to make the accusation. 180 00:09:53,490 --> 00:09:56,570 Why it's unlikely to affect India's geopolitical standing 181 00:09:56,810 --> 00:09:59,290 and what it means for ties between the two nations as far 182 00:09:59,290 --> 00:10:02,370 as Canada is concerned. Where were India Canada ties 183 00:10:02,370 --> 00:10:03,930 headed? Perhaps at the start of the 184 00:10:03,930 --> 00:10:06,130 year. And where do they stand now? 185 00:10:07,610 --> 00:10:11,170 So they were on a good trajectory at the start of 2023. 186 00:10:11,170 --> 00:10:15,570 Progress was being made on a partial free trade agreement. 187 00:10:15,610 --> 00:10:20,250 There had been a breakthrough the year before and as recently 188 00:10:20,250 --> 00:10:24,310 as a few months ago. The indications seem to be there 189 00:10:24,310 --> 00:10:28,950 that perhaps an announcement of conclusion in principle of this 190 00:10:28,950 --> 00:10:32,470 early progress trade agreement might be made at the time of 191 00:10:32,470 --> 00:10:35,030 Prime Minister Trudeau's visit to Delhi. 192 00:10:36,230 --> 00:10:40,030 The latest accusation that's come from Canada has only 193 00:10:40,030 --> 00:10:43,510 perhaps put the trade talks between the two nations not just 194 00:10:43,510 --> 00:10:45,510 on hold. It's it's kind of in the deep 195 00:10:45,510 --> 00:10:48,350 freeze. Do you set emerging of that 196 00:10:48,590 --> 00:10:52,540 anytime soon? For all governments of the 197 00:10:52,660 --> 00:10:56,300 primary considerations are domestic politics. 198 00:10:56,820 --> 00:11:00,300 And I think the domestic politics in both countries as of 199 00:11:00,300 --> 00:11:05,700 this week are such that it will take a considerable time before 200 00:11:05,700 --> 00:11:08,980 you would see the two countries coming back to the table to to 201 00:11:08,980 --> 00:11:11,940 pick up the work again on an early progress trade agreement. 202 00:11:13,100 --> 00:11:17,420 What do you make of Canada's accusation against I1 of India's 203 00:11:17,420 --> 00:11:19,820 biggest complaints? Is that there's no public 204 00:11:19,820 --> 00:11:23,020 evidence to substantiate it yet. Is this something that's 205 00:11:23,020 --> 00:11:24,860 happened before involving Canada? 206 00:11:25,180 --> 00:11:27,700 Why would this accusation be made this early? 207 00:11:28,820 --> 00:11:31,980 It's very unusual. I would say it's it's probably 208 00:11:31,980 --> 00:11:37,140 unprecedented to make such a statement in the way that it was 209 00:11:37,140 --> 00:11:39,460 made and with the content that was in it. 210 00:11:39,660 --> 00:11:43,020 There are occasions and, and this has happened in Canada 211 00:11:43,020 --> 00:11:46,940 before, for example expulsion of diplomats. 212 00:11:47,280 --> 00:11:51,000 For conducting activities incompatible with their their 213 00:11:51,000 --> 00:11:55,160 diplomatic status is something that does happen from time to 214 00:11:55,160 --> 00:11:58,720 time between countries, including Canada, where there 215 00:11:58,720 --> 00:12:01,760 may not be a public announcement about what is the evidence. 216 00:12:01,760 --> 00:12:06,640 So if Canada expels some Russian diplomats, there may not be a 217 00:12:06,640 --> 00:12:09,840 detailed explanation of exactly why they were expelled. 218 00:12:10,580 --> 00:12:14,100 But the public can read between the lines, so that makes this 219 00:12:14,500 --> 00:12:18,780 quite an unusual situation. But I think for an audience in 220 00:12:18,780 --> 00:12:23,180 India, it's important to explain the context also that Canada has 221 00:12:23,180 --> 00:12:26,300 been going through, and particularly Prime Minister 222 00:12:26,300 --> 00:12:29,460 Trudeau's Liberal Party government in Canada has been 223 00:12:29,460 --> 00:12:33,740 going through an extended controversy associated with 224 00:12:34,300 --> 00:12:38,260 allegations of interference in recent Canadian elections by 225 00:12:38,260 --> 00:12:41,460 agents of China. The judicial inquiry has just 226 00:12:41,460 --> 00:12:46,980 been announced just last week into the evidence that there was 227 00:12:46,980 --> 00:12:51,180 interference by people working for China in the party 228 00:12:51,180 --> 00:12:54,740 nominations of candidates for in the in recent general elections 229 00:12:55,180 --> 00:12:58,140 and in spreading disinformation in a targeted way in the 230 00:12:58,140 --> 00:13:01,260 elections themselves. Evidence that was leaked by 231 00:13:01,260 --> 00:13:04,380 members of the intelligence services in Canada. 232 00:13:04,380 --> 00:13:07,860 I would say they would have to be members who were disgruntled 233 00:13:07,900 --> 00:13:10,980 with what they. Say has been the government's 234 00:13:10,980 --> 00:13:12,940 lack of action on the China file. 235 00:13:13,260 --> 00:13:19,020 The government had taken a real beating over the last year for 236 00:13:19,140 --> 00:13:23,860 its inaction on the file and many questions being asked of 237 00:13:23,860 --> 00:13:26,660 the Prime Minister and and responsible ministers. 238 00:13:26,940 --> 00:13:31,640 When did you first learn about? Evidence or intelligence about 239 00:13:31,800 --> 00:13:35,840 these efforts by agents of China to interfere in Canadian 240 00:13:35,840 --> 00:13:38,000 democracy. Why didn't you speak up? 241 00:13:38,040 --> 00:13:41,200 How can Canadians trust you to protect their interests if you 242 00:13:41,200 --> 00:13:43,440 won't speak up and you won't take action? 243 00:13:43,880 --> 00:13:47,520 A couple of months ago, finally, the government here expelled a 244 00:13:47,520 --> 00:13:50,920 single Chinese diplomat from the Consulate General of China in 245 00:13:50,920 --> 00:13:54,160 Toronto, saying this was in connection with the evidence of 246 00:13:54,160 --> 00:13:57,120 interference. The situations are not are not 247 00:13:57,120 --> 00:14:00,900 comparable in most ways. But what is common to both 248 00:14:00,900 --> 00:14:05,300 situations is you have a government that is reportedly in 249 00:14:05,300 --> 00:14:09,420 receipt of intelligence which they, I have to think they 250 00:14:09,420 --> 00:14:13,060 believe is very credible and compelling to take this, this 251 00:14:13,060 --> 00:14:17,580 major step they've taken and informed by their very bruising 252 00:14:17,580 --> 00:14:22,340 experience of having been too slow to go public. 253 00:14:22,790 --> 00:14:27,710 In previous years in the case of of China have swung to the other 254 00:14:27,710 --> 00:14:33,950 direction and come out in a very public way very early in India. 255 00:14:33,950 --> 00:14:36,750 There's a lot of outrage and sort of consternation about the 256 00:14:36,830 --> 00:14:40,630 accusation, with India issuing an advisory to Indians traveling 257 00:14:40,630 --> 00:14:43,070 to Canada making it sound like they were under this. 258 00:14:43,430 --> 00:14:47,510 There's also this belief that the accusation is motivated by 259 00:14:47,630 --> 00:14:51,590 domestic politics, like the influence of Palestani 260 00:14:51,590 --> 00:14:53,980 activists. How is all of this being viewed 261 00:14:53,980 --> 00:14:57,380 in Canada? This sort of sudden breakdown in 262 00:14:57,380 --> 00:15:02,060 relations between the two need. It's hard to generalize, but I 263 00:15:02,060 --> 00:15:07,660 would say probably the first and foremost, the reaction of people 264 00:15:07,700 --> 00:15:11,980 in their large numbers across Canada has really been to focus 265 00:15:12,020 --> 00:15:16,500 on the allegation itself. We know there was a murder in 266 00:15:16,500 --> 00:15:18,940 the suburbs of Vancouver in June. 267 00:15:19,220 --> 00:15:21,260 We know that the killers have not. 268 00:15:21,910 --> 00:15:24,870 Brought to justice, an investigation is going on. 269 00:15:25,110 --> 00:15:27,630 So the these are indisputable facts. 270 00:15:27,990 --> 00:15:33,310 And so when the government comes forward to say it has credible 271 00:15:33,310 --> 00:15:39,110 intelligence linking agents of a foreign state to this murder 272 00:15:39,350 --> 00:15:44,470 that really in the initial 2448 hours is the is the focus and I 273 00:15:44,470 --> 00:15:49,430 think it has to be understood by the public in India that again. 274 00:15:49,900 --> 00:15:54,420 If the government feels it has credible evidence here, they 275 00:15:54,420 --> 00:15:58,100 would feel, you know, great pressure to say something about 276 00:15:58,100 --> 00:16:01,940 it in order to inform Canadians about what they know. 277 00:16:02,260 --> 00:16:06,820 There's no question the current the government is behind in the 278 00:16:07,180 --> 00:16:11,260 opinion polls, it's behind the opposition Conservative Party, 279 00:16:11,620 --> 00:16:15,620 but we're probably a couple of years away still from a general 280 00:16:15,620 --> 00:16:17,940 election that the Liberal Party government. 281 00:16:18,630 --> 00:16:22,070 Has an agreement. It's in a minority position, but 282 00:16:22,070 --> 00:16:25,910 with the support of the New Democratic Party, which is a 283 00:16:26,190 --> 00:16:28,550 leftist center Social Democratic Party. 284 00:16:28,670 --> 00:16:31,630 They control a majority in the House of Commons and they have a 285 00:16:31,630 --> 00:16:35,910 multiyear agreement in return for certain legislative 286 00:16:36,190 --> 00:16:39,950 objectives pursued in common. I think you have to take into 287 00:16:39,950 --> 00:16:43,150 account that one of the contributing factors to the 288 00:16:43,150 --> 00:16:46,110 Liberal government being behind in the polls. 289 00:16:46,630 --> 00:16:51,590 Was the extended controversy over the the evidence of 290 00:16:51,590 --> 00:16:55,790 interference by China. And so the government is trying 291 00:16:55,790 --> 00:17:02,150 to establish itself as being competent and and responsible in 292 00:17:02,150 --> 00:17:04,510 protecting the safety of people in Canada. 293 00:17:04,869 --> 00:17:09,430 But again, I think the decision to go public in the way that 294 00:17:09,430 --> 00:17:13,270 they have. It's I can only speculate, but I 295 00:17:13,270 --> 00:17:15,950 if I look at the counter case and say if they did not go 296 00:17:15,950 --> 00:17:18,670 public, there's no question there would be a risk that 297 00:17:18,670 --> 00:17:21,790 somewhere down the road if evidence comes out or gets 298 00:17:21,790 --> 00:17:25,030 leaked, the government would be facing a very difficult 299 00:17:25,030 --> 00:17:27,829 situation because people would be saying why didn't you say 300 00:17:27,829 --> 00:17:31,350 something, why didn't you expel Indian diplomats and that kind 301 00:17:31,350 --> 00:17:33,870 of thing. So they were facing a risky 302 00:17:33,870 --> 00:17:38,380 choice in either direction. Could it have been done in the 303 00:17:38,380 --> 00:17:41,340 most subtle manner? Is there like sort of a subtlety 304 00:17:41,340 --> 00:17:44,900 missing here which could have perhaps eased this whole thing 305 00:17:45,340 --> 00:17:49,220 and perhaps not been so acrimonious the way it's ended 306 00:17:49,220 --> 00:17:51,620 up? Well, that's a good question. 307 00:17:51,620 --> 00:17:56,020 I imagine they did consider alternatives, but it's on the 308 00:17:56,020 --> 00:17:59,380 public record that the information was brought to the 309 00:17:59,380 --> 00:18:01,260 Government of India. They did. 310 00:18:01,860 --> 00:18:04,780 What you would, you know, normally do on a diplomatic 311 00:18:04,780 --> 00:18:07,300 matter, which is they raised it first directly with the 312 00:18:07,300 --> 00:18:09,620 government. There is visual evidence of 313 00:18:09,620 --> 00:18:12,260 that. From the the photos of Prime 314 00:18:12,260 --> 00:18:15,580 Minister Trudeau and Prime Minister Modi together, it looks 315 00:18:15,580 --> 00:18:18,980 like they have had a very difficult, unhappy conversation. 316 00:18:19,300 --> 00:18:24,020 And I think now we know why. There are also credible reports, 317 00:18:24,140 --> 00:18:28,540 although some dispute from some of the players that Canadian 318 00:18:28,540 --> 00:18:31,420 officials brought the information they had. 319 00:18:32,040 --> 00:18:36,280 On this matter also to some key Canadian allies like the United 320 00:18:36,280 --> 00:18:40,600 States and the UK and Australia, and you've seen there been some 321 00:18:41,040 --> 00:18:48,080 very, very cautious statements by the US and Australia saying 322 00:18:48,080 --> 00:18:52,600 they want to see how this will unfold and what kind of evidence 323 00:18:52,600 --> 00:18:54,760 there is. Trudeau government took a number 324 00:18:54,760 --> 00:18:57,160 of steps to do things discreetly. 325 00:18:57,610 --> 00:19:02,290 One has to assumed, having having received no cooperation 326 00:19:02,730 --> 00:19:06,610 from the Government of India when this was first broached as 327 00:19:06,610 --> 00:19:11,050 a topic, that they felt there was nothing more to be gained by 328 00:19:11,050 --> 00:19:14,050 going down that that road and that they would have no choice 329 00:19:14,050 --> 00:19:17,050 but to do something publicly. In theory, I guess they could 330 00:19:17,050 --> 00:19:21,810 have announced the expulsion of an Indian diplomat. 331 00:19:22,530 --> 00:19:27,210 Without specifying why and the the public may have drawn their 332 00:19:27,210 --> 00:19:29,410 own conclusion if you gain that out. 333 00:19:29,490 --> 00:19:32,890 And that might also be very unsatisfactory kind of 334 00:19:32,890 --> 00:19:35,850 experience for the government and for the Canadian public. 335 00:19:35,850 --> 00:19:38,610 Because then there would be very loud cries saying, okay, there's 336 00:19:38,610 --> 00:19:42,290 been this murder in June. There are rumors floating around 337 00:19:42,290 --> 00:19:44,770 that maybe India had something to do with it. 338 00:19:45,330 --> 00:19:47,970 And now you've expelled an Indian diplomat, but you won't 339 00:19:47,970 --> 00:19:50,610 say why. The other alternative, which of 340 00:19:50,610 --> 00:19:54,090 course should in principle have been available to the Trudeau 341 00:19:54,090 --> 00:19:57,130 government, was simply to wait longer. 342 00:19:57,450 --> 00:20:01,770 To wait until the actual criminal investigation, which is 343 00:20:01,770 --> 00:20:05,130 a police matter, until there would be something very solid in 344 00:20:05,130 --> 00:20:09,650 terms of evidence in a criminal investigation before speaking 345 00:20:09,650 --> 00:20:11,890 up. But it's important to note that 346 00:20:12,050 --> 00:20:15,430 the information. That the government was in 347 00:20:15,430 --> 00:20:19,870 receipt of had been leaked to the press hours in advance of 348 00:20:19,870 --> 00:20:22,870 the government's announcement. There's two types of leaks that 349 00:20:22,870 --> 00:20:25,070 happen in government. I think it's probably the same 350 00:20:25,070 --> 00:20:28,030 in India as it is in Canada and many other democracies. 351 00:20:28,550 --> 00:20:32,790 There are the leaks that are caused by someone in the system 352 00:20:33,150 --> 00:20:37,790 who wants to pursue their own, you know, policy agenda, maybe 353 00:20:38,110 --> 00:20:40,150 against the interests of the government of the day. 354 00:20:40,630 --> 00:20:44,060 But there are also the leaks that are made by the government 355 00:20:44,060 --> 00:20:47,060 of the day to prepare the ground for an announcement on 356 00:20:47,060 --> 00:20:48,940 something. And at this point we don't know 357 00:20:49,340 --> 00:20:54,380 which kind of leak that was. But the information was already 358 00:20:54,500 --> 00:20:58,500 published in the Globe and Mail newspaper before the Prime 359 00:20:58,500 --> 00:21:01,620 Minister got up in the House of Commons on Monday morning and 360 00:21:01,620 --> 00:21:05,900 made his statement. There's also a sense that all of 361 00:21:05,900 --> 00:21:08,860 this is a result of not so great. 362 00:21:09,230 --> 00:21:11,790 Lies between the prime ministers in India. 363 00:21:11,790 --> 00:21:16,030 It's being viewed as a direct correlation to the treatment 364 00:21:16,030 --> 00:21:19,150 that was meted out to Justin Trudeau, the recent G20 meet. 365 00:21:19,310 --> 00:21:23,950 How do you view all of this? I think it's really probably not 366 00:21:23,950 --> 00:21:25,870 reasonable to speculate about that. 367 00:21:25,990 --> 00:21:30,550 When the Canadian delegation was in India for the G20, there were 368 00:21:30,550 --> 00:21:32,910 meetings where this matter was discussed. 369 00:21:33,390 --> 00:21:37,150 So I think that the kind of the tone, the treatment that Prime 370 00:21:37,150 --> 00:21:40,470 Minister Trudeau got and the body language you could see 371 00:21:40,470 --> 00:21:43,990 between the two prime ministers, the simplest explanation is 372 00:21:43,990 --> 00:21:48,390 probably that that was a consequence of Canada bringing 373 00:21:48,390 --> 00:21:51,830 forth these allegations directly to the Government of India. 374 00:21:52,030 --> 00:21:55,430 I think that's that's a more plausible sort of sequence of 375 00:21:55,430 --> 00:22:00,030 events than to assume that the Prime Minister, Trudeau, was not 376 00:22:00,030 --> 00:22:04,350 treated well and therefore went public with the allegations. 377 00:22:05,510 --> 00:22:08,910 In terms of intelligence sharing, Canada has said that it 378 00:22:08,910 --> 00:22:12,630 will share the intelligence it has with allies like the US, UK, 379 00:22:12,630 --> 00:22:15,110 Australia. What are the larger implications 380 00:22:15,110 --> 00:22:20,030 of this for India? Should that evidence be in any 381 00:22:20,030 --> 00:22:24,510 way credible enough? Well, I I think it could end up 382 00:22:24,510 --> 00:22:27,270 being something of a challenge for India. 383 00:22:27,750 --> 00:22:33,640 But I think India diplomatically at this time in this world is in 384 00:22:33,640 --> 00:22:36,480 a very strong position. I think the United States, the 385 00:22:36,480 --> 00:22:42,480 UK, Australia are all very intent on building a good 386 00:22:42,480 --> 00:22:45,440 relationship with India and they're on a good trajectory. 387 00:22:45,720 --> 00:22:51,600 I think it will take a lot for those allies to take any kind of 388 00:22:51,600 --> 00:22:55,890 action against India. That said, I think if there is, 389 00:22:55,890 --> 00:22:58,850 if there is very compelling evidence of the type that that 390 00:22:58,850 --> 00:23:02,850 would stand up in a court of law that it does certainly create an 391 00:23:02,850 --> 00:23:06,450 awkward situation. It'll be very interesting to see 392 00:23:06,450 --> 00:23:10,370 how it plays out. India and Canada have both sent 393 00:23:10,370 --> 00:23:13,410 back each diplomat. Given the circumstances, what do 394 00:23:13,650 --> 00:23:17,780 you see happening? I think at this point it may 395 00:23:17,780 --> 00:23:21,740 depend more on the Indian side than the Canadian side in the 396 00:23:21,740 --> 00:23:25,660 sense that I think on the Canadian side, I don't detect an 397 00:23:25,660 --> 00:23:28,700 appetite to elevate this matter any further. 398 00:23:28,900 --> 00:23:32,100 And you know, that's recognizing that it's already been elevated 399 00:23:32,100 --> 00:23:34,540 to to an unprecedented kind of level. 400 00:23:34,780 --> 00:23:38,460 The implied accusation is serious and shocking. 401 00:23:38,700 --> 00:23:43,140 I think the expulsion of a single Indian diplomat was 402 00:23:43,140 --> 00:23:45,020 something that that had to follow. 403 00:23:45,020 --> 00:23:49,300 You couldn't make such a statement and not expel A 404 00:23:49,300 --> 00:23:52,580 diplomat. And it's also entirely to be 405 00:23:52,580 --> 00:23:55,340 expected. It would be quite shocking if 406 00:23:55,620 --> 00:23:58,900 India did not reciprocate in kind. 407 00:23:59,220 --> 00:24:03,780 I think another step in the in this what could become a back 408 00:24:03,780 --> 00:24:07,900 and forth was that India issuing its its travel advisory, quite a 409 00:24:07,900 --> 00:24:12,890 strong advisory communicating to Indian citizens and visitors to 410 00:24:12,890 --> 00:24:16,090 Canada, students who are studying in Canada about 411 00:24:16,250 --> 00:24:21,730 perceived risks to their safety. Canada has a travel advisory in 412 00:24:21,730 --> 00:24:25,530 place for India. I can't detect that there was 413 00:24:25,530 --> 00:24:30,050 any significant change to Canada's advisory as a result of 414 00:24:30,050 --> 00:24:33,050 the events of this week. Canadians to exercise a high 415 00:24:33,050 --> 00:24:36,450 degree of caution in India, but some of the elements of that 416 00:24:36,450 --> 00:24:40,230 advisory which is a very focused on region. 417 00:24:40,350 --> 00:24:42,630 So that should not in itself be controversial. 418 00:24:42,750 --> 00:24:45,670 I think it's important not to read anything into the Canadian 419 00:24:45,790 --> 00:24:48,790 travel advisory. It it, it is the one that's been 420 00:24:48,790 --> 00:24:52,830 in place for for many years. I would be very surprised if the 421 00:24:52,830 --> 00:24:56,910 Government of Canada responded to the to India's travel 422 00:24:56,910 --> 00:24:59,150 advisory by taking any particular measure. 423 00:24:59,150 --> 00:25:02,950 I think the response by some Canadian ministers has been 424 00:25:02,950 --> 00:25:06,450 simply to say, look, Canada is one of the safest countries in 425 00:25:06,450 --> 00:25:10,530 the world by any measure, and travelers and students and 426 00:25:10,530 --> 00:25:14,450 visitors are as safe here as they are just about anywhere 427 00:25:14,450 --> 00:25:16,290 else in the world. And that hasn't changed. 428 00:25:16,290 --> 00:25:20,090 So they're rejecting the premise of the of India's travel 429 00:25:20,090 --> 00:25:22,450 advisory. But I wouldn't expect any kind 430 00:25:22,450 --> 00:25:26,180 of tit for tat on that. And I'm seeing some wild rumors. 431 00:25:26,260 --> 00:25:30,300 There's concern that Canada would put a ban on entry of 432 00:25:30,300 --> 00:25:33,100 people from India or people from certain parts of India. 433 00:25:33,100 --> 00:25:37,980 I I just like to say there's no basis in fact or logic to that. 434 00:25:38,020 --> 00:25:39,820 I think that's just disinformation. 435 00:25:39,820 --> 00:25:43,780 I don't see why any Canadian government would do that. 436 00:25:43,780 --> 00:25:48,700 There's no logic to it. The two nations have deeper ties 437 00:25:48,700 --> 00:25:54,560 now than anytime in the past. How do you see a way out of this 438 00:25:54,560 --> 00:25:57,360 situation that the two nations find themselves in? 439 00:25:57,360 --> 00:26:00,640 And do you have any kind of speculation on how soon that 440 00:26:00,640 --> 00:26:05,080 could happen? I think on the issue of time, I 441 00:26:05,080 --> 00:26:07,840 think it's going to take a considerable period of time. 442 00:26:08,120 --> 00:26:12,120 At the heart of the matter is a criminal act and the police are 443 00:26:12,120 --> 00:26:16,560 investigating and these, you know, investigations take time. 444 00:26:16,840 --> 00:26:19,920 If charges are brought against somebody, then court proceedings 445 00:26:19,920 --> 00:26:22,440 take time. These things can take years to 446 00:26:22,440 --> 00:26:25,440 play out. So I think it's, I think we're 447 00:26:25,440 --> 00:26:30,520 just at the beginning of a difficult period that will last 448 00:26:30,520 --> 00:26:32,760 certainly months and possibly years. 449 00:26:33,240 --> 00:26:37,080 There's lots of examples and we've had one recently, Canada 450 00:26:37,160 --> 00:26:41,480 with China and perhaps in some respects India with China, where 451 00:26:41,480 --> 00:26:45,800 you have a difficult diplomatic relationship and maybe frosty 452 00:26:45,800 --> 00:26:50,040 relations, which we certainly have had in China since 2018 453 00:26:50,040 --> 00:26:55,520 when we had two Canadian citizens detained arbitrarily in 454 00:26:55,520 --> 00:26:59,360 China following the arrest of the CFO of of Huawei in 455 00:26:59,360 --> 00:27:03,040 Vancouver, where you have that situation, the the business 456 00:27:03,240 --> 00:27:07,880 business ties the people to people, ties students, investors 457 00:27:07,880 --> 00:27:12,080 and so on continue. As India has been the number one 458 00:27:12,080 --> 00:27:15,440 source country for immigration to Canada for the last few years 459 00:27:15,480 --> 00:27:18,680 and by a by a considerable distance over the number 2 and 460 00:27:18,680 --> 00:27:21,360 #3 source countries. You know, we have a larger 461 00:27:21,680 --> 00:27:25,640 community of people in Canada of Indian origin than we have ever 462 00:27:25,640 --> 00:27:28,840 had. And so those people to people 463 00:27:28,840 --> 00:27:33,000 ties I think can be a kind of a stabilizer in these situations. 464 00:27:33,240 --> 00:27:37,880 Business ties have been growing. I think this rupture that we're 465 00:27:37,880 --> 00:27:42,120 in now diplomatically will probably put some downward 466 00:27:42,120 --> 00:27:45,840 pressure on the trajectory of what was a growing relationship. 467 00:27:45,840 --> 00:27:49,440 That's not to say it won't continue to grow because there 468 00:27:49,440 --> 00:27:52,040 are objective reasons. India is the fastest growing 469 00:27:52,040 --> 00:27:56,760 large economy in the world. So I think objectively there's 470 00:27:56,760 --> 00:27:59,920 no reason why they why the trade and investment relationship 471 00:27:59,960 --> 00:28:04,200 should not continue to grow, but it probably won't have as as 472 00:28:04,200 --> 00:28:08,800 steep an upward trajectory as it would have had if the political 473 00:28:08,800 --> 00:28:10,960 relations were very smooth and happy. 474 00:28:11,200 --> 00:28:15,360 My hope is that between the two governments that things that are 475 00:28:15,360 --> 00:28:20,040 already at A at a certain level that we won't escalate further 476 00:28:20,160 --> 00:28:23,560 and that we will wait and see, see what happens with this 477 00:28:23,560 --> 00:28:27,400 investigation that the police are doing in here in Vancouver. 478 00:28:27,720 --> 00:28:31,240 We'll see see where that goes before anyone takes any further 479 00:28:31,320 --> 00:28:39,740 actions. Today's episode was produced by 480 00:28:39,740 --> 00:28:42,060 Pinaki Chakraborty and Anuja Singh. 481 00:28:42,380 --> 00:28:45,700 For a daily spotlight on people, ideas and stories that matter, 482 00:28:45,980 --> 00:28:49,620 subscribe to us. We're available on Ty, Spotify, 483 00:28:49,900 --> 00:28:53,620 Apple, Google Podcasts, and all other platforms of your choice. 484 00:28:54,310 --> 00:28:59,150 For any news tips, e-mail us at TUI Podcast at Timesinternet in.