From India's largest newsroom, I'm Arun George and this is the
Times of India podcast. What a difference a week makes.
As of last week, ties between India and Canada were frosty,
but as this weekend, they're almost hostile.
That change in relationship came after Canadian Prime Minister
Justin Trudeau told the Canadian Parliament that he believed.
India was involved in the killing of a Sikh separatist
group leader in June in the town of Sari.
Over the past number of weeks, Canadian security agencies have
been actively pursuing credible allegations of a potential link
between agents of the Government of India and the killing of a
Canadian citizen, Hardeep Singh Nijar.
This allegation came even as the Canadian police said that the
investigation was still ongoing. No one has been arrested or
charged with the murder yet, as on Thursday, the 21st of
September, Canada also sent back an Indian diplomat over the
killing. Not surprisingly, it has
prompted a storm in India. I thought so.
That is an extremely disappointing development.
And Justin Trudeau is appeasing the terrorist groups by backing
Kalitali terrorists openly and trying to take on India.
Since the allegations were leveled, India has retaliated in
multiple ways. It first sent back a Canadian
diplomat. Then it issued an advisory for
Indian citizens living and travelling to Canada and warned
them against anti Indian activities taking place there.
And on Thursday the 21st of September, it stopped issuing
visas for Canadians to visit India.
You are aware of the security threats being faced by our High
Commission and consulates in Canada.
This has disrupted their normal functioning.
Accordingly, our High Commission and consulates are temporarily
unable to process visa applications.
We will be reviewing the situation on a regular basis.
This collapse of ties comes even as India and Canada are linked
more closely than ever before in their histories.
Nearly 1,00,000 Indians work and study in Canada, and thousands
have emigrated to that country. Economic ties are also deeper
than they've ever been. But what happens now?
To understand that, we spoke with two former diplomats from
both nations. Former ambassador Anil
Trigunayat served as India's ambassador to multiple nations
and is a distinguished fellow at the think tank Vivekananand the
international Foundation. My colleague Pinaki Chakraborty
spoke with him on Wednesday, the 20th of September.
That is prior to the visa stoppage and travel advisory,
and they spoke about India's response to the allegations by
Canada. The former diplomat spoke about
why India can't take the allegations seriously and that
the allegations are a byproduct of domestic politics.
Anil 3 Guna It says that India has constantly raised the issue
of Khalistani groups operating from Canada, but has never seen
any concrete action. The fact remains is that it is
the Canadians who have not addressed India's genuine
concerns and have allowed the entire India activities to
proliferate. In Canada, we have seen the
Khalistani movement, which has continued to once again rise its
ugly head. We have seen that there have
been attacks in Canada. There have been threats to the
Indian diplomats. There have been protests against
India, including a referendum, Palestine referendum, which is
directly impeded on India's sovereignty and territorial
integrity. So I think that the Canadian
actions are then not that of a friend or even a country that
wishes. Good for you.
It is essentially against India's interests and therefore
we have protested all the time against their actions, against
the government's action. And their complicity is very
clear. Mr. Justin Trudeau, you remember
when he came on a bilateral visit here at that time, he
brought in these sick extremist gentlemen with him and that was
in violation of India's hospitality.
Second time now when he was here waiting for the G20.
At that time, India showed hospitality and civility but at
the same time he misused that abuse that and Prime Minister
Modi took up on all these cases along with requisite evidences.
But that is not something that really pleased him so much, and
he raised this issue also about Kanisher's killing.
Which was essentially, according to the reports from there were
mainly an intergaging war and therefore he goes back.
He accused the Indian agencies of some kind of a plot without
any evidence, without any basis and therefore how do you take
it? So whole idea is essentially to
somehow cater to his constituency and trying to
retrieve the lost ground and confidence.
Unfortunately, among the terrorist oriented groupings.
With Canada expelling Indian diplomats and vice versa, do you
think it is a blow for diplomacy on both sides?
Well, obviously if you come to think of it, these are extreme
actions which are taken to expel diplomats.
But if one country does it, it is a reciprocity that is invoked
by the other country, in this case India.
Which has always been a victim of terrorism at least for 40
years, not from now. So instead of joining hands with
India to eliminate terrorists, if you pander to the extremists
and terrorists, then obviously there is no meeting ground there
now. I see that relationship going
downwards spiral now, rather than stabilizing in any short
term. Why do you think that there has
been a reluctance on part of Canada to deal with extremism in
the country? Well, they are the constituency,
they are the financials. British Columbia has the maximum
Sikhs and they are also part of his government and he is being
supported by Gurmeet Singhs party and so they are part of
his coalition and that's why he has this, I would say choice he
had to make between his political career and his
diplomatic finesse. Has India has not been accused
of this sort of activity before. Pakistan keeps on doing all the
time. But barring Pakistan?
How did you respond diplomatically at that point?
You can accuse anybody for anything, but in this until you
provide the proof or the evidence, it is really just a
talk and you get the brownie points as the PR exercise.
Thats it. The groups in in Canada they
have linkages with the Pakistani groups people bakhalsa or others
these. Canadians know it very well.
Also. One must, I always say that
these countries which tend to support extremists and
terrorists must read the Basmasur theory in our Indian
legends, which is it is going to bite them again, again and
again. It is doing so in Pakistan.
It will do so in Canada or any other country.
But very often the Western countries, just to put you on
the back foot, would come out with a human rights issues or
something like that as far as terrorists are concerned.
India does not believe in doing that, but it has to protect its
sovereignty and territorial integrity.
India has denied the allegations and responded to the retaliatory
sending back of a Canadian diplomat.
What typically would happen from this stage onwards?
As the high commissioners are there, if the relationship
further versus there may be a possibility of downgrading the
ties to start the fair level when ambassador is not there in
a country. Then the next officer who takes
charge is called Charged Affairs.
That is something that could happen that at a later stage if
the situation continued to worsen.
And it will also depend on if the Canadians do not take care
of our diplomats in their country.
That is the responsibility of the Canadian government.
Secondly, how it plays out in the global outreach, how whether
they continue to harp on the same thing, again without
providing any evidence. If there is an evidence, ask for
provide it. And deal with it without
providing any evidence, simply accusing the country of doing
something there where is there is nothing except your
hypothesis. I think that that is something
that is not going to work out effectively.
Do you think that is India would be willing to investigate the
claims candidate there is? No question of claims.
I mean, you provide the evidence with the claim, then they can
work together. I mean, we have always
cooperated with them. With any country in the world.
But you cant just accuse the country when there is no basis
for it. If they have, they would have
presented by now. If you see Trudeau, the
statement to the foreign ministers, the statement,
potential link, potential link, those are the kind of things
theyre talking about. They know hardcore information.
There is no evidence as to now, so lets see, I mean what they
produce. Where do you see this setting
concern, the fact that Canada needs Indias, one of the biggest
business partners? And a lot of Indians go to
Canada to either settle down, study or work.
I think that it will all depend which way in my view or the
gradients take it India's response.
In my view they are not precipitating it by itself.
It was been precipitated by the gradients.
And if they want to go this way, then I don't see that the
relationship is going to move on a higher orbit anytime soon.
Jeff Nankeville, who is the president and CEO of the think
tank Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada, also admits the ties
between the two nations don't look like they're going to
improve anytime soon. However, he says it's unlikely
Canada will escalate things anytime soon.
He spoke with me from Vancouver on Thursday morning to try and
explain how the entire incident is being viewed in Canada.
He talks about the domestic political compulsions that are
believed to have prompted Justin Trudeau to make the accusation.
Why it's unlikely to affect India's geopolitical standing
and what it means for ties between the two nations as far
as Canada is concerned. Where were India Canada ties
headed? Perhaps at the start of the
year. And where do they stand now?
So they were on a good trajectory at the start of 2023.
Progress was being made on a partial free trade agreement.
There had been a breakthrough the year before and as recently
as a few months ago. The indications seem to be there
that perhaps an announcement of conclusion in principle of this
early progress trade agreement might be made at the time of
Prime Minister Trudeau's visit to Delhi.
The latest accusation that's come from Canada has only
perhaps put the trade talks between the two nations not just
on hold. It's it's kind of in the deep
freeze. Do you set emerging of that
anytime soon? For all governments of the
primary considerations are domestic politics.
And I think the domestic politics in both countries as of
this week are such that it will take a considerable time before
you would see the two countries coming back to the table to to
pick up the work again on an early progress trade agreement.
What do you make of Canada's accusation against I1 of India's
biggest complaints? Is that there's no public
evidence to substantiate it yet. Is this something that's
happened before involving Canada?
Why would this accusation be made this early?
It's very unusual. I would say it's it's probably
unprecedented to make such a statement in the way that it was
made and with the content that was in it.
There are occasions and, and this has happened in Canada
before, for example expulsion of diplomats.
For conducting activities incompatible with their their
diplomatic status is something that does happen from time to
time between countries, including Canada, where there
may not be a public announcement about what is the evidence.
So if Canada expels some Russian diplomats, there may not be a
detailed explanation of exactly why they were expelled.
But the public can read between the lines, so that makes this
quite an unusual situation. But I think for an audience in
India, it's important to explain the context also that Canada has
been going through, and particularly Prime Minister
Trudeau's Liberal Party government in Canada has been
going through an extended controversy associated with
allegations of interference in recent Canadian elections by
agents of China. The judicial inquiry has just
been announced just last week into the evidence that there was
interference by people working for China in the party
nominations of candidates for in the in recent general elections
and in spreading disinformation in a targeted way in the
elections themselves. Evidence that was leaked by
members of the intelligence services in Canada.
I would say they would have to be members who were disgruntled
with what they. Say has been the government's
lack of action on the China file.
The government had taken a real beating over the last year for
its inaction on the file and many questions being asked of
the Prime Minister and and responsible ministers.
When did you first learn about? Evidence or intelligence about
these efforts by agents of China to interfere in Canadian
democracy. Why didn't you speak up?
How can Canadians trust you to protect their interests if you
won't speak up and you won't take action?
A couple of months ago, finally, the government here expelled a
single Chinese diplomat from the Consulate General of China in
Toronto, saying this was in connection with the evidence of
interference. The situations are not are not
comparable in most ways. But what is common to both
situations is you have a government that is reportedly in
receipt of intelligence which they, I have to think they
believe is very credible and compelling to take this, this
major step they've taken and informed by their very bruising
experience of having been too slow to go public.
In previous years in the case of of China have swung to the other
direction and come out in a very public way very early in India.
There's a lot of outrage and sort of consternation about the
accusation, with India issuing an advisory to Indians traveling
to Canada making it sound like they were under this.
There's also this belief that the accusation is motivated by
domestic politics, like the influence of Palestani
activists. How is all of this being viewed
in Canada? This sort of sudden breakdown in
relations between the two need. It's hard to generalize, but I
would say probably the first and foremost, the reaction of people
in their large numbers across Canada has really been to focus
on the allegation itself. We know there was a murder in
the suburbs of Vancouver in June.
We know that the killers have not.
Brought to justice, an investigation is going on.
So the these are indisputable facts.
And so when the government comes forward to say it has credible
intelligence linking agents of a foreign state to this murder
that really in the initial 2448 hours is the is the focus and I
think it has to be understood by the public in India that again.
If the government feels it has credible evidence here, they
would feel, you know, great pressure to say something about
it in order to inform Canadians about what they know.
There's no question the current the government is behind in the
opinion polls, it's behind the opposition Conservative Party,
but we're probably a couple of years away still from a general
election that the Liberal Party government.
Has an agreement. It's in a minority position, but
with the support of the New Democratic Party, which is a
leftist center Social Democratic Party.
They control a majority in the House of Commons and they have a
multiyear agreement in return for certain legislative
objectives pursued in common. I think you have to take into
account that one of the contributing factors to the
Liberal government being behind in the polls.
Was the extended controversy over the the evidence of
interference by China. And so the government is trying
to establish itself as being competent and and responsible in
protecting the safety of people in Canada.
But again, I think the decision to go public in the way that
they have. It's I can only speculate, but I
if I look at the counter case and say if they did not go
public, there's no question there would be a risk that
somewhere down the road if evidence comes out or gets
leaked, the government would be facing a very difficult
situation because people would be saying why didn't you say
something, why didn't you expel Indian diplomats and that kind
of thing. So they were facing a risky
choice in either direction. Could it have been done in the
most subtle manner? Is there like sort of a subtlety
missing here which could have perhaps eased this whole thing
and perhaps not been so acrimonious the way it's ended
up? Well, that's a good question.
I imagine they did consider alternatives, but it's on the
public record that the information was brought to the
Government of India. They did.
What you would, you know, normally do on a diplomatic
matter, which is they raised it first directly with the
government. There is visual evidence of
that. From the the photos of Prime
Minister Trudeau and Prime Minister Modi together, it looks
like they have had a very difficult, unhappy conversation.
And I think now we know why. There are also credible reports,
although some dispute from some of the players that Canadian
officials brought the information they had.
On this matter also to some key Canadian allies like the United
States and the UK and Australia, and you've seen there been some
very, very cautious statements by the US and Australia saying
they want to see how this will unfold and what kind of evidence
there is. Trudeau government took a number
of steps to do things discreetly.
One has to assumed, having having received no cooperation
from the Government of India when this was first broached as
a topic, that they felt there was nothing more to be gained by
going down that that road and that they would have no choice
but to do something publicly. In theory, I guess they could
have announced the expulsion of an Indian diplomat.
Without specifying why and the the public may have drawn their
own conclusion if you gain that out.
And that might also be very unsatisfactory kind of
experience for the government and for the Canadian public.
Because then there would be very loud cries saying, okay, there's
been this murder in June. There are rumors floating around
that maybe India had something to do with it.
And now you've expelled an Indian diplomat, but you won't
say why. The other alternative, which of
course should in principle have been available to the Trudeau
government, was simply to wait longer.
To wait until the actual criminal investigation, which is
a police matter, until there would be something very solid in
terms of evidence in a criminal investigation before speaking
up. But it's important to note that
the information. That the government was in
receipt of had been leaked to the press hours in advance of
the government's announcement. There's two types of leaks that
happen in government. I think it's probably the same
in India as it is in Canada and many other democracies.
There are the leaks that are caused by someone in the system
who wants to pursue their own, you know, policy agenda, maybe
against the interests of the government of the day.
But there are also the leaks that are made by the government
of the day to prepare the ground for an announcement on
something. And at this point we don't know
which kind of leak that was. But the information was already
published in the Globe and Mail newspaper before the Prime
Minister got up in the House of Commons on Monday morning and
made his statement. There's also a sense that all of
this is a result of not so great.
Lies between the prime ministers in India.
It's being viewed as a direct correlation to the treatment
that was meted out to Justin Trudeau, the recent G20 meet.
How do you view all of this? I think it's really probably not
reasonable to speculate about that.
When the Canadian delegation was in India for the G20, there were
meetings where this matter was discussed.
So I think that the kind of the tone, the treatment that Prime
Minister Trudeau got and the body language you could see
between the two prime ministers, the simplest explanation is
probably that that was a consequence of Canada bringing
forth these allegations directly to the Government of India.
I think that's that's a more plausible sort of sequence of
events than to assume that the Prime Minister, Trudeau, was not
treated well and therefore went public with the allegations.
In terms of intelligence sharing, Canada has said that it
will share the intelligence it has with allies like the US, UK,
Australia. What are the larger implications
of this for India? Should that evidence be in any
way credible enough? Well, I I think it could end up
being something of a challenge for India.
But I think India diplomatically at this time in this world is in
a very strong position. I think the United States, the
UK, Australia are all very intent on building a good
relationship with India and they're on a good trajectory.
I think it will take a lot for those allies to take any kind of
action against India. That said, I think if there is,
if there is very compelling evidence of the type that that
would stand up in a court of law that it does certainly create an
awkward situation. It'll be very interesting to see
how it plays out. India and Canada have both sent
back each diplomat. Given the circumstances, what do
you see happening? I think at this point it may
depend more on the Indian side than the Canadian side in the
sense that I think on the Canadian side, I don't detect an
appetite to elevate this matter any further.
And you know, that's recognizing that it's already been elevated
to to an unprecedented kind of level.
The implied accusation is serious and shocking.
I think the expulsion of a single Indian diplomat was
something that that had to follow.
You couldn't make such a statement and not expel A
diplomat. And it's also entirely to be
expected. It would be quite shocking if
India did not reciprocate in kind.
I think another step in the in this what could become a back
and forth was that India issuing its its travel advisory, quite a
strong advisory communicating to Indian citizens and visitors to
Canada, students who are studying in Canada about
perceived risks to their safety. Canada has a travel advisory in
place for India. I can't detect that there was
any significant change to Canada's advisory as a result of
the events of this week. Canadians to exercise a high
degree of caution in India, but some of the elements of that
advisory which is a very focused on region.
So that should not in itself be controversial.
I think it's important not to read anything into the Canadian
travel advisory. It it, it is the one that's been
in place for for many years. I would be very surprised if the
Government of Canada responded to the to India's travel
advisory by taking any particular measure.
I think the response by some Canadian ministers has been
simply to say, look, Canada is one of the safest countries in
the world by any measure, and travelers and students and
visitors are as safe here as they are just about anywhere
else in the world. And that hasn't changed.
So they're rejecting the premise of the of India's travel
advisory. But I wouldn't expect any kind
of tit for tat on that. And I'm seeing some wild rumors.
There's concern that Canada would put a ban on entry of
people from India or people from certain parts of India.
I I just like to say there's no basis in fact or logic to that.
I think that's just disinformation.
I don't see why any Canadian government would do that.
There's no logic to it. The two nations have deeper ties
now than anytime in the past. How do you see a way out of this
situation that the two nations find themselves in?
And do you have any kind of speculation on how soon that
could happen? I think on the issue of time, I
think it's going to take a considerable period of time.
At the heart of the matter is a criminal act and the police are
investigating and these, you know, investigations take time.
If charges are brought against somebody, then court proceedings
take time. These things can take years to
play out. So I think it's, I think we're
just at the beginning of a difficult period that will last
certainly months and possibly years.
There's lots of examples and we've had one recently, Canada
with China and perhaps in some respects India with China, where
you have a difficult diplomatic relationship and maybe frosty
relations, which we certainly have had in China since 2018
when we had two Canadian citizens detained arbitrarily in
China following the arrest of the CFO of of Huawei in
Vancouver, where you have that situation, the the business
business ties the people to people, ties students, investors
and so on continue. As India has been the number one
source country for immigration to Canada for the last few years
and by a by a considerable distance over the number 2 and
#3 source countries. You know, we have a larger
community of people in Canada of Indian origin than we have ever
had. And so those people to people
ties I think can be a kind of a stabilizer in these situations.
Business ties have been growing. I think this rupture that we're
in now diplomatically will probably put some downward
pressure on the trajectory of what was a growing relationship.
That's not to say it won't continue to grow because there
are objective reasons. India is the fastest growing
large economy in the world. So I think objectively there's
no reason why they why the trade and investment relationship
should not continue to grow, but it probably won't have as as
steep an upward trajectory as it would have had if the political
relations were very smooth and happy.
My hope is that between the two governments that things that are
already at A at a certain level that we won't escalate further
and that we will wait and see, see what happens with this
investigation that the police are doing in here in Vancouver.
We'll see see where that goes before anyone takes any further
actions. Today's episode was produced by
Pinaki Chakraborty and Anuja Singh.
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