From India's largest Newsroom. I'm are enjoyed, and this is the
times of India podcast. We will indeed weather
department, has issued a heat wave warning for multiple parts
of North India, including New Delhi, the national capital
terminal out of government has issued an advisory asking people
not to venture out unless it's absolutely necessary.
Jim talked about, yeah. Across the country, the years,
highest temperatures are being reported, thousands of cases of
heat. Related elements have been
recorded across the country. However, we have no accurate
estimate of heat-related deaths, the meteorological department
has issued multiple warnings in regions for heat waves, but we
don't know how many people are the most at risk due to such
high temperatures, Most states in India.
Now, have a heat action plan, as a policy to deal with heat waves
and high temperatures. But as a study by the
delhi-based center for policy, research found many of the
plans, don't get it. Demented very well or provide
much relief to those most affected by the heat.
One of the authors of the report are the the appeal a joins us on
the show today to talk about how India deals with heatwaves
presently and why it will need to change in the coming years as
if they talk stores about why there's no escaping, super hot
summers anymore and how we are risking health and economic
impacts by not dealing with it properly.
So are they the we're recording this on a day when it's yellow
Alert in Delhi, where temperatures been in the 40s for
days? Now, is this an unusual year or
is this what we're going to get used to now?
Yeah, it's 11:17 in the morning and it's all day over 40
degrees. This is not an unusual year so
far. Especially this month is not
been unusual by any stretch of the imagination day.
He does cross into the 40's quite often.
Today, we've had a heatwave, a lot declared which means it's
going to be exceptionally hot and I think you can see the
effects of that on the street. But then the question is over
heat. Wave alert has been declared how
much should it change visibly change the functioning of
society and the economy and clearly today to my mind apart
from these small things. Pretty much nothing has really I
couldn't wait. So which, which makes me think
about how much we should react to heat waves, what's the
acceptable amount and for what type of heat.
The one, an unusual moment of this summer came actually before
the summer, which was in fehb, when we had the hottest fehb in
history, and February is not usually known to be a hot month.
And last year we had an extremely hot March.
So this now, two years in a row. We Get a sense that the
temperature spike is coming earlier and that has all sorts
of economy-wide impacts because the economy structure on having
relatively cool temperatures to admit much, especially
Agriculture and so. On this year, we've also had
this prediction that temperatures will rise by 1.5
degrees. Could you explain what that
means? Is it that you like say we are
right now at 42 degrees of the highest and the highest
temperature today could be like a 40 to 43 degrees.
Does it mean that we will be at 45 degrees from next year
onwards? What happened was the wmo put
out a modeling study that suggested and this is a
forward-looking study. It's a forecast for the next
five years and they asked how much is temperature going to
increase from the pre Industrial Average and this is the global
average temperature, right? So it doesn't mean anything for
any specific place. It's not an indication that it
was supposed to be 43 today. It's going to be 44.5.
That's, that's not how it works. So global average, some places
will heat much more and someplace where heat much less.
They said the chance of us breaching 1.5 degrees of the pre
Industrial Average, one point five degree warming for at least
one of the next five years was likely, and there was a 98%
percent probability that the next five years.
Will be hotter than the previous five, but I think what it means.
I think you step back from the fine print, it's important.
No a, the planet is getting warmer very fast. 1.5 is
Hallowed Ground because it is baked into the Paris agreement,
and it is what all our Global Collective action has been
targeted towards over the last decade or so, taking off from
that, we should learn that they're going to be significant
impacts and it's not just here. Eat right.
It's also about Coastal erosion, it's about forest fires, it's
about sea, sea level rise. And what that means for coastal
cities is what river, flooding, Urban, flooding, all of those
things are now brought into the spotlight with a 1.5 increase
since we're focusing on here today, you know, Major Tool that
we look at and really the only policy we have when it comes to
tackling or dealing with the heat is your heat action plan,
which is now Across the country in a report that you've done for
CPR. You pointed out that these are
largely ineffectual and don't really do much.
Could you explain why? Yeah.
So the first thing is not every city that needs a heat action
plan has one, not every state has one and not every district
has been. So we in our study, we try to
actually take a look at heat action plans or understand what
they do and don't do well. So Deli right now.
We have a heat wave alert but we don't have a functioning Heat.
Action plan. So there are still gaps but the
positive story here is that you know, in a long did decade we
went from one heat action plan and I'm the bird which is the
Forerunner to all these other cities to today.
Ten years down the line we found 37 and we definitely think there
are more that we weren't able to get a Hands-On.
So that's an encouraging story, that heat planning has become
something that governments now do.
And this is happening at a very Decentralized localized level,
right? So the fact that it's bottom-up,
I think seems to indicate at some level that heat is
recognized as a problem. So that's the good news.
We're not at a place where the worst of heat is kicked in.
So this is the learning period. People are dying through this
and we need to make sure that we learn every possible lesson from
all these incidents that happen in terms of the in terms of
understanding. In what heat action plans do and
don't do well. One of the things that they do
and because we had this data set of, you know, 37 plans with okay
is quite cool. Why don't we actually look at
all the solutions proposed and understand what the solution map
is and in doing so we realize is like a wealth of solutions
across across the board. You name it, everything that
you've seen in anything about heat plans across the world,
Indian, he plans have That's great.
One of the problems is they were not very localized.
So you have these Solutions. But are they adapted to the
named reality? The local River reality of a
place, right? Some places are humid in human,
heat can be lethal, some places have warm lights, which means
you can't rest at night. So, they are these questions
about the type of heat there questions about how that Society
is dealt with heat in the past, which means how many people Have
died at this x temperature. If you want to declare a
heatwave, What temperature would you declare a heat wave at?
So if you were to declare a heat wave at a point, you know, in
the past has triggered debts, which means local adaptation.
Techniques person in the community adaptation techniques
have been surpassed, which is why you get debts then that's
when you declare for that. You need local data on mortality
and then finally socioeconomically, where are the
most Double people made by the people who are working heat,
expose jobs. Where do they live?
What kind of houses do they live in?
Do they have access to electricity and water.
So, that that level of localization, we didn't see a
whole lot of vulnerability assessments, for example, which
is actually asking these questions about where the
wonderful people live, who the wonderful people are.
So that's, you know, pregnant women and so on and so forth, at
have need have one ability assessments only two of the 37
to of the 37 heat action plans had one pretty assessments now.
We know the jodhpur heat action plans, just come out, has a
vulnerability assessment. So we're looking at about less
than 10 percent of Indian heat action plans.
Having this perhaps the biggest cause of worry is the
institutional structure around heat action plan, right?
And the problem there is there not financed in most cases the
solution often touted in heat action plans is can you build
our Solutions into existing departmental budgeting and you
know as well? I do that states and cities Etc
are fiscally stressed a lot of the time and don't really have
the room to take on new new projects.
They're not encased in any sort of Legal Foundation and they
have no independent evaluations because heat is something that's
changing every year. These things have to be revised
every year, which means you need evaluations.
And most importantly, I think you need to have a conversation
with people who are heat affected while you're revising.
The plan which means actually going out there conducting your
Choppers, and your focus group discussions and whatnot, and
coming back in and rewriting your plans.
We didn't see too much evidence of that either.
So the questions about the implementation efficacy here,
but there are also some positives that we found.
So the, but again, I just want to say that these are early days
and the idea behind writing this report was, can we now move
things in a direction where India can really establish
itself as a model for how to deal with one of the worst
effects of climate change. So, do I think that's a separate
conversation of when heat waves are being declared and so on.
But your broader point, I think stands, which is I think we are
now with heat. We're at a tree public awareness
phase in terms of this heat being substantially different in
a way. Think about air pollution in
Northern cities about Seven, eight years.
Why even now to a great is degree, right?
So, there's there is a public awareness issue.
Things are being done, mostly at least on paper.
Things are being done. You have to communicate what
heat is to people. And all of these heat action
plans have a significant information block of solutions
so that there is a traditional early warning system
communication which is you know lime D will be issuing only
wanting to communicate that but also And it's communicated, they
have activities to go out then build knowledge and capacity not
only amongst vulnerable populations but also amongst
government officials traffic cops everyone who has anything
to do with the lived reality of a city, or a town or a village
on on a day-to-day basis. So this is very expansive
knowledge, building exercise. And they also now rely very much
on Modern communication techniques such as WhatsApp
groups, and, of course, they have Older, things like the
radio jingles. And now recently, we've seen a
bunch of s tma's come out with YouTube videos and YouTube
shorts, but what I wonder is How effectual they are.
So that that is really the Gap because we have Solutions on
paper, we don't know how well they're being implemented and I
suspect. There's a variation
implementation across the country but you know, you said
that like with air pollution that it's 78 years since we
started talking about it you don't really see a sort of, what
would you say public outrage or public?
Demand for cleaner air or something like that?
Can we afford to be as I'm about it with heat because it's as
direct and impact as say bad error.
Yeah, I mean, anything, in terms of the deaths, I mean air is so
much higher than heat. I mean, those are lancers report
and massive numbers of people dying because of direct exposure
to air pollution. And then, additionally, there is
this interaction between air pollution and heat which is the
exposure to air pollution will greatly exacerbate, the
potential for a heat that which is people came.
Out recently. So there is obviously a really
big problem. The public awareness for it is
obviously not near enough especially in a city like Delhi
and I think anecdotally, I think both of us probably ask people.
What do you think about this P? Super smog that you're in you
can't even see your hand outstretched in front of you and
people say, oh you know it's just the fog, it's not smoke.
I think it's different in different cities right?
I think Bombay. For example, this year, correct
me if I'm wrong. It felt like there was a pretty
big sort of like, push back on pollution, especially from civil
society and and folks on the ground, which we haven't seen as
much in Delhi. But here's the thing, right?
So we had, for example, the Delhi government make it a core
issue in the last election. So it was actual campaign issue.
I don't think it's the case. That there is no increase in
public awareness around this. What I've taken away from that
is Is it takes a proper decade. I think between something
popping up in the policy space in a building like CPR or in
other places across the country and it becoming sort of
entrenched in the lived patterns of people's existence, right.
So what with he too, can you afford to take that long to like
I'm saying if we are talking of higher temperatures in hotter
places? I mean we Looking pretty
unbearable temperatures for long periods of time and can you say
then, save it for, you know, half a decade before.
Firstly, I don't think so. I don't think you can wait a
decade before because a day, I mean, think about how quickly
things have been moving, right? In terms of climate impacts.
What I am suggesting is, that's the pattern just based on the
case of are, right? I, you know, I think localized
climate impacts, especially, pollution related hazards, may
be that, that system of He engage ment and opinion-forming
operates faster. But in this broad diffuse,
Invisible Killer, which is what are is.
And heat is also brought diffuse Invisible Killer.
I think it takes a long time unless you have a concerted
political effort to identify this as a problem and the
concerted political gains to be made from solving that problem.
Now are, is very difficult to solve.
I think heat is even harder because you can't solve it.
There is no stopping the heat, you can stop there.
There's no stopping me. He's all you can do is invest in
making sure people don't die and when people don't die, it's not
a new story. So there's something.
Wonky about the political feedback structure around heat
and around. A lot of adaptation vestments.
There is a chance. What will change things sadly?
And very, unfortunately, is a major heat that the rent.
And we've seen that to them. The birth where the public
Machinery, kicked into gear. We've seen that, in Orissa in
the late 90s, public Machinery, kick it in gear Telangana.
Now has a cool roofs program, so that that is a system that sort
of Spurs, a Machinery into action.
But when it's an organic thing like are it's invisible fuse,
and all you have is modeling to suggest what the death death
potential is? It feels like that.
Sort of absorption of Hazards is less efficient in.
The Indian Indian public imagination than these sort of
like gory death based events in terms of adaptation and other
thing is how you spoke of various policies can be used to
sort of improve our adaptation towards it.
But how much is that happening? Presently and how prevalent are
such adaptation measures currently in India.
So it's hard to say because our report I mean, the study we've
done is purely based on analyzing the Action plans
themselves. In the next phase of our
research will be about the actual implementation.
So I'll be able to give you a rigorous answer more rigorous,
answer down the line in terms of how much they're being
implemented. I think anecdotally, we know
that some cities actually do care about implementing this
stuff. Other cities, may not have the
capacity, awareness and then there's a third layer of cities
that have just released heat. Action plans, is completely new
document and so we have absolutely no idea in a way the
You asking is very early in the sense in three years from now,
we like she I think have a much better sense of what the level
of implementation, so these solutions that are proposed
every single heat action plan. And significant chunk related to
do's and don'ts Which means the person behavioral change is
actually at the core of every heat action.
Plan has a large chunk of it devoted to those do's and
don'ts, which means person Behavior change is at the core
of not only society's response. But also the state's response to
heat all of that is just a recognition that heat is now
surpassing the personal deputation capacity of an
individual. And therefore the state needs to
intervene the corrective action, but there's a lot that still
happening in the personal realm, but languid air, Heats a bit
like that, right leg. If you can afford air
conditioning, you have an air-conditioned house.
But if you can't afford it, then what really do you do, right?
Because how do you go around that aspect of it?
Because like you mentioned, the financing is a major point,
right? And who foods that bill finally
I think. Yeah, it's very similar to are
in the is that I think there's going to be a section of Rich
well-heeled. Well, informed society, that
sort of blocks themselves or from the environment.
And that's a good thing. That's a good thing.
That's not a bad thing, every person needs to have protection,
right? And similarly, with the air
conditioners, let's hear it's already here.
I intend in terms of AC sales, the National Grid is now
actually thinking about AC uses like a big driver.
Be consumption, which is not the case, like 10 years ago.
If you read the papers, that's not what we were thinking about.
So that is here and I think the trajectory is going to be very
much a see dominated, but the problem there is it's going to
increase India's emissions which will just increase heat down the
line. So is this permanent death
spiral of ecu's? Because creating heat and then
use more and it's a problem for the rest of the world.
Also, of course. And then there's the The hfcs
the gases are used in the ACs, which have a significantly
higher warming potential than carbon dioxide.
I don't think you can step away from Air Conditioning use.
I don't think it's right. I think we really need to figure
out how to make air conditioning more renewable friendly, make
their hfcs less warming. And make it more energy
efficient, but that's only one part of it.
There are all sorts of very interesting Solutions out there,
but a lot of them like, in the mitigation space, a lot of them
experimental not been scaled. So on so forth and not all of
this is cheap, right? Even if you're saying take, he's
he's everywhere that it's not like a lot of this country can't
afford that AC everyday kind of thing when you do when I was
saying, you know, plug it into the Renewables.
And if you think about some sort of storage option because you
can't have the entire country running a series at night, you
really need significant amounts of Technology, you need
Innovation. I think you'll also need tech
transfers from companies that are currently leading that are
not based in India and making that available cheaply and some
level of the global compact round technology transfer show.
Should be directed at cooling. Specifically, if you can bring
down costs enough, And if you can make sure it's sustainable,
then it can occupy a chunk of the cooling needs of the country
without destroying personal wallets and the atmosphere
simultaneously. Right.
I'm only saying this because it feels like this is almost
inevitable that this would be an air conditioning LED response.
It is aspirational, it is an incredibly hot country and it
makes such a huge difference to your lived reality and gives you
energy. During the day and sleep at all
of those things. And especially when kids are
involved every parent, if they can afford, it will do this,
right? So there has to be a concern of
effort in bringing the cost down and making the technology more
sustainable. And then building all of these
other Solutions into it as well. I feel like there has to be a
balancing act but with heat rising.
One thing that we noticed is in every city You hitting new Peaks
chain, nice reporting up temperatures.
It has never seen in the bud, which started the heat action
plan, complains that it's not effective anymore.
How much could this affect? How our cities are as in.
You, spoke about how the GDP itself could potentially fall
with this. Could you talk about that
aspect? I think the two questions in
that. The first is the broader
economic ramifications of this. And in terms of how cities
function I think we're now getting enough evidence to
suggest that we significant drops in labor productivity.
I so this is ILO study that tries to locate losses in labor
productivity which says somewhere in the mid 90s we were
losing about 4.3 percent of working hours to heat.
Now it's at five point eight percent by 2030.
I think they suggest on a very low conservative emissions
pathway and it'll increase over time. agriculture is a different
story because They suggested over nine percent of
agricultural. Labor laws will be lost by 2030
so it affects cities and agriculture slightly
differently, but it will affect both very badly.
I think it's important to remember that if you can't be
working, and that's the idea, right?
I think they have established thresholds of when people stop
working or forced to stop working.
If you can't stop working, I think the problem is that is
start leading to public health problems because So if you can't
afford to take out days wage cut, then you end up in a
situation where you have to go to the hospital, or was if
there's also the second order, question about whether you can
stop working, if you want to, if you have an employer, that does
not want you to stop working, and does not want to comply with
it. 3:48 restriction on work on their construction site.
What does one do? So then there's a question about
how much Collective How much state enforcement are these apps
actually implementable and enforceable.
And also 5.8%, I think will affect some sectors worse than
others, right? And some people from Summit
communities and some cars in some areas, work in some
sectors, more than others, right?
So there's a massive Equity problem at the heart of all of
this. The second part, the second
answer to your question is also about how does it change, what
cities are in towns are I think if you think about heat action
plans is imagine a world where these heat action plans and all
the other plants around climate adaptation are enforced and
financed. The, some of it is you'll have a
very very, very different structure and shape to any sort
of city or town, right? It means changing how the
streets are laid out. Changing what the buildings look
like changing. How many trees that are?
Trees. They're changing also, what land
uses which is the most political thing.
If we want to really prepare for this, I think we have to imagine
these things differently. A bunch of incremental changes,
I think will lead up to something very different.
It's not about restarting, the whole system, but making
incremental changes that eventually then lead to a
transformational change. And these heat action plans.
All these other plans are actually transformative
documents. The question is whether you can
build the institutional support for it and tweet the solutions
to make sure that effective and all of that.
But ultimately, you're looking at a very different country if
you take adaptation series, Visually, it would be different.
Today's episode was produced by Jay Raj, Singh soon.
I moratti and on Vijay Singh for a daily Spotlight.
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