1 00:00:00,679 --> 00:00:03,280 From India's largest newsroom, I'm Arun George 2 00:00:03,280 --> 00:00:05,580 and this is The Times of India Podcast. 3 00:00:30,000 --> 00:00:33,200 But vote, please. We 4 00:00:33,200 --> 00:00:36,180 should never be sad in the vote. 5 00:01:02,540 --> 00:01:04,120 It's also hot summer in many 6 00:01:04,120 --> 00:01:06,180 parts of India with warnings of heat waves in 7 00:01:06,180 --> 00:01:08,280 many states. But is that what's affecting 8 00:01:08,280 --> 00:01:10,620 turnouts? And also, does it just feel 9 00:01:10,620 --> 00:01:13,820 like campaigns are just very low key? Many 10 00:01:13,820 --> 00:01:15,980 commentators have observed that this election just 11 00:01:15,980 --> 00:01:18,820 feels less energetic than previous ones and the 12 00:01:18,820 --> 00:01:21,540 turnouts reflect that fewer voters are making their way 13 00:01:21,540 --> 00:01:24,040 to the polling booths than the last general election. 14 00:01:24,500 --> 00:01:25,740 But what are the implications 15 00:01:25,740 --> 00:01:27,840 of this? To decode that, we spoke with 16 00:01:27,840 --> 00:01:30,260 Nilanjan Sarkar, who is a senior fellow at the Centre 17 00:01:30,260 --> 00:01:32,700 for Policy Research in Delhi. Nilanjan 18 00:01:32,700 --> 00:01:34,720 admits that there's much less energy in this 19 00:01:34,720 --> 00:01:37,740 national election than he remembers in the past and 20 00:01:37,740 --> 00:01:40,000 explains why it could be a worry for the BJP and 21 00:01:40,000 --> 00:01:43,180 Narendra Modi who claim to be aiming to win 400 out 22 00:01:43,180 --> 00:01:45,740 of 543 seats in the Lok Sabha. He 23 00:01:45,740 --> 00:01:47,880 also explained how he views the biggest headlines from 24 00:01:47,880 --> 00:01:50,540 the campaign trail so far, which is Narendra Modi's 25 00:01:50,540 --> 00:01:53,980 speech targeting Muslims and the Congress manifesto. We 26 00:01:53,980 --> 00:01:56,700 started by asking Nilanjan about what explains a 27 00:01:56,700 --> 00:02:00,920 seemingly lacklustre election this year. There 28 00:02:00,920 --> 00:02:03,200 has been some commentary about this but does this 29 00:02:03,200 --> 00:02:07,900 election campaign feel a slightly more lacklustre one 30 00:02:07,900 --> 00:02:10,940 compared to even the ones we've seen in 2014 and 31 00:02:10,940 --> 00:02:14,660 2019? And is it just because we have 32 00:02:14,660 --> 00:02:18,360 an election that's spread over nearly two months? So 33 00:02:18,360 --> 00:02:22,300 I think we have had long elections in the past. 34 00:02:22,800 --> 00:02:24,380 There is no doubt that there is 35 00:02:24,380 --> 00:02:26,820 much less energy in this election. At 36 00:02:26,820 --> 00:02:28,860 least in the first phase of the election polls, 37 00:02:29,020 --> 00:02:31,320 we've seen a pretty significant decrease in 38 00:02:31,320 --> 00:02:34,660 turnout. That is a bit unusual given 39 00:02:34,660 --> 00:02:36,720 what we've seen in the last two national elections, 40 00:02:36,720 --> 00:02:42,780 where both in 2014 and 2019, we saw increases in 41 00:02:42,780 --> 00:02:45,040 turnout, sometimes very, very significant at the 42 00:02:45,040 --> 00:02:48,840 constituency level. And second, it being associated 43 00:02:48,840 --> 00:02:52,040 with the sort of a wave -like support for the BJP. 44 00:02:52,400 --> 00:02:54,060 The ability of the BJP to 45 00:02:54,060 --> 00:02:58,940 mobilize voters around broad -based issues in 2014, anti 46 00:02:58,940 --> 00:03:04,060 -corruption, in 2019, Balakot, Pakistan. We 47 00:03:04,060 --> 00:03:07,820 seem to be missing that kind of wave -like energy 48 00:03:07,820 --> 00:03:13,340 this time in 2024. If there is a lack of energy 49 00:03:13,340 --> 00:03:17,240 and sort of turnout, what does it mean then? How 50 00:03:17,240 --> 00:03:20,540 does a low turnout, if this continues, this kind 51 00:03:20,540 --> 00:03:24,220 of turnout continues, what is the sort of outlook 52 00:03:24,220 --> 00:03:27,220 then? First, let me talk about what the 53 00:03:27,220 --> 00:03:30,820 data has said in recent history in national 54 00:03:30,820 --> 00:03:34,800 elections. And secondly, some of the micro 55 00:03:34,800 --> 00:03:37,560 foundations of why we may be seeing higher or lower 56 00:03:37,560 --> 00:03:39,960 turnout. In the last two national 57 00:03:39,960 --> 00:03:44,040 elections, at the constituency level, a large 58 00:03:44,040 --> 00:03:47,140 increase in turnout from the previous election has 59 00:03:47,140 --> 00:03:51,100 been strongly associated with BJP support. So 60 00:03:51,100 --> 00:03:53,640 in 2014, that's anti -incumbent, right? Because 61 00:03:53,640 --> 00:03:55,640 the incumbent was Congress. But 62 00:03:55,640 --> 00:03:59,080 in 2019, that is in fact pro -incumbent, right? And 63 00:03:59,080 --> 00:04:03,040 in many ways, 2019 breaks from the past. There 64 00:04:03,040 --> 00:04:07,600 was an association between higher -level turnout at the 65 00:04:07,600 --> 00:04:11,580 constituency level, increases in turnout, and vote share 66 00:04:11,580 --> 00:04:16,519 for the opposition. So 2019 changes our priors in 67 00:04:16,519 --> 00:04:19,660 a few ways. It shows us that increased 68 00:04:19,660 --> 00:04:22,720 turnout may not always help the opposition. But 69 00:04:22,720 --> 00:04:27,500 secondly, it cements the fact that the BJP is the 70 00:04:27,500 --> 00:04:31,080 mobilizing party par excellence in India. It 71 00:04:31,080 --> 00:04:33,140 might be because of resources, it might be 72 00:04:33,140 --> 00:04:34,880 because of message, it might be because of 73 00:04:34,880 --> 00:04:37,440 machinery. But in the last two elections, 74 00:04:37,660 --> 00:04:41,000 the wave -like support has benefited the BJP and been 75 00:04:41,000 --> 00:04:43,780 strongly associated with increases in turnout at the 76 00:04:43,780 --> 00:04:47,180 constituency level. At a micro level, we have to 77 00:04:47,180 --> 00:04:50,820 try to understand why people might turn out. So 78 00:04:50,820 --> 00:04:54,120 we have a general rule in the study of politics and 79 00:04:54,120 --> 00:04:56,780 political science that when elections are competitive, 80 00:04:57,100 --> 00:04:59,720 you tend to see higher turnouts, right? So 81 00:04:59,720 --> 00:05:03,100 if I believe that in my seat, the election could go 82 00:05:03,100 --> 00:05:05,680 either way, then I'm emboldened to turn out 83 00:05:05,680 --> 00:05:08,780 because I might cast the deciding vote. When 84 00:05:08,780 --> 00:05:11,720 elections are largely uncompetitive, we tend to 85 00:05:11,720 --> 00:05:13,800 believe that turnouts drop. So 86 00:05:13,800 --> 00:05:16,040 that's one plausible explanation. Now, 87 00:05:16,120 --> 00:05:19,360 who is turning out and who is not is a far more 88 00:05:19,360 --> 00:05:23,740 complicated question. Because if the story we believe is 89 00:05:23,740 --> 00:05:27,220 that the recent increase in turnout have been a 90 00:05:27,220 --> 00:05:30,060 function of the BJP's ability to get people to 91 00:05:30,060 --> 00:05:34,120 the polls, then it may stand to reason that the 92 00:05:34,120 --> 00:05:36,440 people now not showing up are people who are no 93 00:05:36,440 --> 00:05:39,520 longer being mobilized by the BJP. But 94 00:05:39,520 --> 00:05:43,080 it may also be that you have a fragmented sort of 95 00:05:43,080 --> 00:05:47,460 demoralized opposition in many places and people are 96 00:05:47,460 --> 00:05:50,600 simply not turning out for the opposition because they 97 00:05:50,600 --> 00:05:52,980 don't believe the election can be competitive even at 98 00:05:52,980 --> 00:05:55,640 the constituency level. So that's a bit of a mystery. 99 00:05:55,960 --> 00:05:56,840 We don't know. We 100 00:05:56,840 --> 00:05:58,840 will find out, obviously, when we see the results. 101 00:05:58,840 --> 00:06:01,460 But suffice to say that the 102 00:06:01,460 --> 00:06:05,860 lack of energy, the lack of real mobilization of 103 00:06:05,860 --> 00:06:08,640 voters to get to the polling booth is something 104 00:06:08,640 --> 00:06:12,580 that is very new in the Modi era. Also, 105 00:06:12,840 --> 00:06:15,700 this sort of nine phase election that drags out 106 00:06:15,700 --> 00:06:19,080 over two months. This comes just before the BJP 107 00:06:19,080 --> 00:06:21,080 plans to rule out this whole one nation one 108 00:06:21,080 --> 00:06:24,780 election proposal. Would this election then 109 00:06:24,780 --> 00:06:27,600 effectively show you that that's a really difficult 110 00:06:27,600 --> 00:06:31,200 thing to do anytime in the near future? It 111 00:06:31,200 --> 00:06:33,680 depends on how you read the dragging out of the 112 00:06:33,680 --> 00:06:37,260 election. Right. So it is indeed true that 113 00:06:37,260 --> 00:06:39,860 elections have gotten longer in India. So 114 00:06:39,860 --> 00:06:43,160 we're really sort of extending the periods very, 115 00:06:43,180 --> 00:06:48,080 very significantly. One story is that the reason 116 00:06:48,080 --> 00:06:54,160 for this is increases challenges in security and 117 00:06:54,160 --> 00:06:57,620 lack of resources for the kinds of logistics that are 118 00:06:57,620 --> 00:07:00,460 required to run a fair election. In 119 00:07:00,460 --> 00:07:03,040 which case, I would agree that it is very, very hard 120 00:07:03,040 --> 00:07:05,440 to imagine a story in which you can have one 121 00:07:05,440 --> 00:07:08,060 nation one election and run it in one shot, right? 122 00:07:08,060 --> 00:07:10,400 Because there's exponential growth 123 00:07:10,400 --> 00:07:13,080 in the kind of complexity of fielding an election 124 00:07:13,080 --> 00:07:16,160 when you have one nation one election. The 125 00:07:16,160 --> 00:07:20,400 other story though is of, you know, somewhat 126 00:07:20,400 --> 00:07:24,840 institutional capture that the longer elections and 127 00:07:24,840 --> 00:07:26,920 this actually occurred started occurring even 128 00:07:26,920 --> 00:07:31,720 before the BJP came into power, sort of allows the 129 00:07:31,720 --> 00:07:36,860 incumbent party to use other institutions, the 130 00:07:36,860 --> 00:07:41,620 media in various ways to, you know, sort of aggregate 131 00:07:41,620 --> 00:07:45,000 benefits and correct course over time. Now, 132 00:07:45,020 --> 00:07:47,640 in that case, the length of election may not tell 133 00:07:47,640 --> 00:07:50,360 us much about the feasibility of one nation 134 00:07:50,360 --> 00:07:54,540 one election. I think the more complicated 135 00:07:54,540 --> 00:07:59,180 question about one nation one election is that even 136 00:07:59,180 --> 00:08:01,980 in the recent past, in fact, especially in the 137 00:08:01,980 --> 00:08:04,660 recent past, we have had governments falling, 138 00:08:05,120 --> 00:08:07,700 switching, so on and so forth. So 139 00:08:07,700 --> 00:08:12,060 if you don't have a system in which you have regular 140 00:08:12,060 --> 00:08:16,100 polls every year or from time to time, how do you 141 00:08:16,100 --> 00:08:19,300 deal with the extraordinary turnover in governments that 142 00:08:19,300 --> 00:08:21,860 you're seeing at the state level? The 143 00:08:21,860 --> 00:08:24,940 reason why sort of bring this up is that the entire 144 00:08:24,940 --> 00:08:27,640 question and the entire answer to the question is 145 00:08:27,640 --> 00:08:30,220 about logistics. And the only thing that has 146 00:08:30,220 --> 00:08:32,500 not been spelled out, lots of people have all kinds 147 00:08:32,500 --> 00:08:35,539 of grand theories about how much it will cost and what 148 00:08:35,539 --> 00:08:38,440 is the economy like, nobody has spelled out the 149 00:08:38,440 --> 00:08:40,320 logistics of one nation one election. And 150 00:08:40,320 --> 00:08:42,500 until that's spelled out, it's very hard to imagine 151 00:08:42,500 --> 00:08:46,700 that it's feasible. You mentioned the fact that a 152 00:08:46,700 --> 00:08:49,720 longer election also allows for course correction. Is 153 00:08:49,720 --> 00:08:53,220 that something that could benefit the opposition as 154 00:08:53,220 --> 00:08:56,160 much as the ruling party? It 155 00:08:56,160 --> 00:08:59,080 could, obviously. Everybody gets to course correct. 156 00:08:59,240 --> 00:09:00,800 Everybody gets to see sort of past 157 00:09:00,800 --> 00:09:04,300 results. We tend to believe it benefits 158 00:09:04,300 --> 00:09:09,320 the incumbent for the simple fact that the 159 00:09:09,320 --> 00:09:12,500 incumbent has many more resources at their disposal. 160 00:09:12,640 --> 00:09:13,820 In this case, quite literally 161 00:09:13,820 --> 00:09:16,460 because the BJP is by far the richest party in India. 162 00:09:17,120 --> 00:09:19,480 But by resources, I mean state 163 00:09:19,480 --> 00:09:25,700 institutions, media control to explain why and the 164 00:09:25,700 --> 00:09:28,860 ways in which things might matter. From 165 00:09:28,860 --> 00:09:32,200 a political actor during the model code of conduct 166 00:09:32,200 --> 00:09:36,120 that governs elections, no kind of policy declaration 167 00:09:36,120 --> 00:09:40,620 or policy decision is plausible. But 168 00:09:40,620 --> 00:09:44,540 state institutions are not necessarily prevented from 169 00:09:44,540 --> 00:09:48,640 taking actions that may have some basis in 170 00:09:48,640 --> 00:09:51,920 politics. So West Bengal is a very good 171 00:09:51,920 --> 00:09:55,680 example where the High Court has taken a decision 172 00:09:55,680 --> 00:10:00,880 at this time on a potential educational and 173 00:10:00,880 --> 00:10:03,740 teaching scam, which may or may not adversely affect 174 00:10:03,740 --> 00:10:07,420 the TMC. But it is a tool that is at 175 00:10:07,420 --> 00:10:13,520 the disposal of the ruling party that may have some 176 00:10:13,520 --> 00:10:16,220 control over state institutions that is not 177 00:10:16,220 --> 00:10:18,480 available to the opposition. And 178 00:10:18,480 --> 00:10:21,740 so in so far as large policy shifts or 179 00:10:21,740 --> 00:10:25,760 declarations or legal actions or police actions 180 00:10:25,760 --> 00:10:30,460 can affect behaviors of the electorate, the incumbent 181 00:10:30,460 --> 00:10:33,100 tends to be in a stronger position. Where 182 00:10:33,100 --> 00:10:36,520 the opposition may have something going for it, at 183 00:10:36,520 --> 00:10:40,960 least as we were walking into the 2024 national 184 00:10:40,960 --> 00:10:44,740 election, the imagination was the opposition has no 185 00:10:44,740 --> 00:10:47,480 chance that this is going to be sort of a real 186 00:10:47,480 --> 00:10:50,100 mess. We are all looking romp for 187 00:10:50,100 --> 00:10:53,000 the BJP. We already see that in the 188 00:10:53,000 --> 00:10:56,340 first phase, energy has been low. There 189 00:10:56,340 --> 00:11:00,880 are stories, narratives that perhaps in certain places 190 00:11:00,880 --> 00:11:03,820 the BJP is nervous. I tend to dismiss those 191 00:11:03,820 --> 00:11:06,820 stories, but many people might believe them. If 192 00:11:06,820 --> 00:11:11,560 the opposition can build a narrative over phases that 193 00:11:11,560 --> 00:11:13,840 in fact the ruling party is getting nervous, it is 194 00:11:13,840 --> 00:11:19,840 no longer sure. You can see a longer election 195 00:11:19,840 --> 00:11:24,200 like this create kind of wave like benefits for the 196 00:11:24,200 --> 00:11:26,520 opposition by the time we get to the later phases 197 00:11:26,520 --> 00:11:29,260 five, six, seven. So that's an open question. I 198 00:11:29,260 --> 00:11:30,900 think we still have a long way to go. 199 00:11:51,520 --> 00:11:53,680 With Narendra Modi after that 200 00:11:53,680 --> 00:11:56,300 first phase of voting and more importantly while 201 00:11:56,300 --> 00:11:59,500 campaigning in North India, he made this relatively 202 00:11:59,500 --> 00:12:02,120 uncharacteristic direct attack at the Muslim 203 00:12:02,120 --> 00:12:05,920 community. Whereas he's now more known for 204 00:12:05,920 --> 00:12:08,020 the indirect attacks rather than a straightforward 205 00:12:08,020 --> 00:12:11,340 attack. How surprised were you by that? 206 00:12:12,599 --> 00:12:14,200 I do think it was surprising. 207 00:12:14,860 --> 00:12:18,480 We can expose justify anything 208 00:12:18,480 --> 00:12:22,340 that is sort of the character of pundits and 209 00:12:22,340 --> 00:12:27,000 scholars, but it was quite a break from what we have 210 00:12:27,000 --> 00:12:31,040 seen in the past. What is the need for this kind 211 00:12:31,040 --> 00:12:35,240 of aggression? Now, what I would say is that 212 00:12:35,240 --> 00:12:38,160 it is less about whether the BJP is winning or 213 00:12:38,160 --> 00:12:39,820 losing. That is a very murky 214 00:12:39,820 --> 00:12:47,280 calculation, but it is more about this sheer lack of 215 00:12:47,280 --> 00:12:51,480 energy that we're seeing in the election. Polarization, 216 00:12:51,700 --> 00:12:54,860 particularly polarization that is derived from the 217 00:12:54,860 --> 00:12:58,620 top is sort of energy on the cheap. People 218 00:12:58,620 --> 00:13:01,280 get passionate and emotional about Hindu Muslim things. 219 00:13:01,920 --> 00:13:05,560 So from that lens, I do see 220 00:13:05,560 --> 00:13:09,560 what the logic was. I think there's a second 221 00:13:09,560 --> 00:13:14,000 thing that we have not been talking about enough 222 00:13:14,000 --> 00:13:16,220 and it is a byproduct of the first, which is sort 223 00:13:16,220 --> 00:13:21,090 of low national energy. The BJP is at its strongest 224 00:13:21,090 --> 00:13:24,110 when it is a national election in all senses, 225 00:13:24,710 --> 00:13:28,390 that it is an election in which the issues that are 226 00:13:28,390 --> 00:13:31,070 coming forward are national nature, national security, 227 00:13:31,310 --> 00:13:34,490 balacrups, corruption at a national level and the 228 00:13:34,490 --> 00:13:37,370 kinds of scams. Once elections get more 229 00:13:37,370 --> 00:13:40,470 regionalized and regional factors come into play, 230 00:13:40,870 --> 00:13:43,470 then the BJP is not necessarily playing its 231 00:13:43,470 --> 00:13:45,830 strongest game because some of the state level units 232 00:13:45,830 --> 00:13:48,630 of the BJP are quite a bit weaker. So 233 00:13:48,630 --> 00:13:52,470 when we look at states like West Bengal, which we 234 00:13:52,470 --> 00:13:54,910 just talked about earlier, where you have a dominant 235 00:13:54,910 --> 00:13:58,890 party as a regional party, there's a real need to 236 00:13:58,890 --> 00:14:02,010 make the discourse something more national like Hindu 237 00:14:02,010 --> 00:14:05,070 Muslim and make sure that the discourse doesn't become 238 00:14:05,070 --> 00:14:07,850 overly regional in which the BJP will be playing 239 00:14:07,850 --> 00:14:10,070 sort of from the back foot. We 240 00:14:10,070 --> 00:14:15,330 have to understand that the kind of course correction 241 00:14:15,330 --> 00:14:20,290 that perhaps the BJP needs because of low energy is 242 00:14:20,290 --> 00:14:24,770 not simply to get energy up on some sort of 243 00:14:24,770 --> 00:14:28,850 national social issue as Hindu Muslim, but also to 244 00:14:28,850 --> 00:14:33,570 decrease the likelihood that a voter is thinking about 245 00:14:33,570 --> 00:14:37,270 regional issues and not national issues when she or 246 00:14:37,270 --> 00:14:39,250 he goes to the polling booth. One 247 00:14:39,250 --> 00:14:41,630 of the things that we've seen in the last couple of 248 00:14:41,630 --> 00:14:43,210 national elections, especially the last national 249 00:14:43,210 --> 00:14:49,710 election, is that the BJP outperforms itself at the 250 00:14:49,710 --> 00:14:51,870 state level between state and national elections by 251 00:14:51,870 --> 00:14:53,750 double digits. So you might have a state in 252 00:14:53,750 --> 00:14:56,970 which the BJP gets 42 % of the vote share in a state 253 00:14:56,970 --> 00:15:00,550 election, but it might jump to 55 % or 60 % in the 254 00:15:00,550 --> 00:15:02,890 national elections in that same state. The 255 00:15:02,890 --> 00:15:05,910 BJP is trying to manufacture those kinds of 256 00:15:05,910 --> 00:15:09,030 growths in vote share percentage because that's 257 00:15:09,030 --> 00:15:11,290 what is required to get those kinds of sweeps, 258 00:15:11,650 --> 00:15:14,830 those 300 plus or Charso -Parr kind of seats that 259 00:15:14,830 --> 00:15:16,070 the BJP is claiming to get. 260 00:15:28,290 --> 00:15:29,970 For you, does that also then 261 00:15:29,970 --> 00:15:33,750 explain why a lot of Narendra Modi speeches deal 262 00:15:33,750 --> 00:15:37,150 with issues that are in the Congress manifesto and 263 00:15:37,150 --> 00:15:41,090 less say on future or even past achievements to that 264 00:15:41,090 --> 00:15:44,610 extent, that it seems to be nitpicking on every line 265 00:15:44,610 --> 00:15:47,490 of a Congress manifesto, whereas a lot of battles, 266 00:15:47,610 --> 00:15:49,510 like you're saying, will be fought at the state level 267 00:15:49,510 --> 00:15:52,650 with perhaps more regional parties than just the 268 00:15:52,650 --> 00:15:56,850 Congress? I think on one level, even 269 00:15:56,850 --> 00:16:00,790 this discussion speaks to the extraordinary ability of 270 00:16:00,790 --> 00:16:02,990 Modi to set the agenda. Because 271 00:16:02,990 --> 00:16:05,390 before this moment, whoever cared about party 272 00:16:05,390 --> 00:16:07,490 manifestos, I mean, let's be brutally honest, right? 273 00:16:07,850 --> 00:16:08,390 I mean, this is the one 274 00:16:08,390 --> 00:16:11,230 thing that nobody cares about, right? But 275 00:16:11,230 --> 00:16:14,410 now all of a sudden it's become a key issue, which 276 00:16:14,418 --> 00:16:17,750 is line by line, what did Congress write in its 277 00:16:17,750 --> 00:16:19,630 manifesto? Perhaps even when they were writing 278 00:16:19,630 --> 00:16:21,530 their manifesto, they couldn't have possibly 279 00:16:21,530 --> 00:16:23,910 imagined that line by line, they would be scrutinized 280 00:16:23,910 --> 00:16:27,610 for which word they use, minority, Muslim, cash, 281 00:16:27,930 --> 00:16:31,410 this, that. That is now the world that we 282 00:16:31,410 --> 00:16:36,410 are in, right? So there are two key elements 283 00:16:36,410 --> 00:16:38,850 to this kind of attack, right? So 284 00:16:38,850 --> 00:16:42,210 the first is, of course, the linking of the Congress 285 00:16:42,210 --> 00:16:48,810 party to a certain set of social ideologies, right? So 286 00:16:48,810 --> 00:16:53,670 the linking of Hindu Muslim division to the Congress 287 00:16:53,670 --> 00:16:57,290 party, essentially not taking the right side, 288 00:16:57,570 --> 00:16:59,490 taking the Muslim side as opposed to the Hindu side, 289 00:16:59,570 --> 00:17:01,510 right? That's a very clear part of the 290 00:17:01,510 --> 00:17:04,190 messaging. The second part of the 291 00:17:04,190 --> 00:17:07,710 messaging, which is importantly crafted, is that 292 00:17:07,710 --> 00:17:12,430 the opposition is still Congress. So 293 00:17:12,430 --> 00:17:15,450 it's that story I said about regional and national, 294 00:17:16,710 --> 00:17:24,109 that why should you vote for me in Aindramudi or 295 00:17:24,109 --> 00:17:30,350 BJP, if I'm sitting in a state like West Bengal, or 296 00:17:30,350 --> 00:17:36,150 if I am sitting in a state like Urissa, even if 297 00:17:36,150 --> 00:17:38,290 the Congress is not a player in your constituency. 298 00:17:38,930 --> 00:17:40,230 So you definitely want to vote 299 00:17:40,230 --> 00:17:42,490 for the BJP so that the Congress doesn't take power 300 00:17:42,490 --> 00:17:44,750 at the center, even though Congress is not a player 301 00:17:44,750 --> 00:17:47,650 where you are. So it sets the agenda in two 302 00:17:47,650 --> 00:17:50,170 ways. It makes a link between a 303 00:17:50,170 --> 00:17:53,070 social cleavage and the political parties, but it 304 00:17:53,070 --> 00:17:56,350 also diminishes the role of regional actors, which have 305 00:17:56,350 --> 00:17:59,650 the capacity to do a lot of damage to the BJP and 306 00:17:59,658 --> 00:18:02,730 the kinds of numbers it is aiming for. With 307 00:18:02,730 --> 00:18:07,030 the speech about Muslims, which was the controversial 308 00:18:07,030 --> 00:18:10,610 one, the election commission after that has now stepped 309 00:18:10,610 --> 00:18:13,630 in to caution all star campaigners across parties 310 00:18:13,630 --> 00:18:17,570 where the BJP Congress. How do you view that criticism 311 00:18:17,570 --> 00:18:22,530 given the regulator is facing criticism for not 312 00:18:22,530 --> 00:18:24,870 responding earlier? And we also have reports now 313 00:18:24,870 --> 00:18:27,270 that we already know what they're going to say with 314 00:18:27,270 --> 00:18:32,230 regard to religious issues being raked out. So 315 00:18:32,230 --> 00:18:38,370 we have a very basic principle. Institutions 316 00:18:38,370 --> 00:18:43,110 fundamentally do care about their legitimacy. Within 317 00:18:43,110 --> 00:18:45,910 the ambit of being a legitimate institution, 318 00:18:46,070 --> 00:18:48,070 there's a lot of flexibility. Such 319 00:18:48,070 --> 00:18:51,290 a direct communal attack, which is essentially what 320 00:18:51,290 --> 00:18:54,450 we're saying happened in Prime Minister Modi's 321 00:18:54,450 --> 00:18:56,930 speech. For the election commission to 322 00:18:56,930 --> 00:19:01,270 simply not say anything in any way would be a huge 323 00:19:01,270 --> 00:19:07,490 loss of face. Insofar as it is important for 324 00:19:07,490 --> 00:19:10,150 India as a whole to project that it has free 325 00:19:10,150 --> 00:19:13,210 and fair elections, it is important for the election 326 00:19:13,210 --> 00:19:16,220 commission to be seen as being relatively legitimate. 327 00:19:17,310 --> 00:19:19,250 It also cuts the other way 328 00:19:19,250 --> 00:19:24,910 for the BJP and for Prime Minister Modi to demonstrate 329 00:19:24,910 --> 00:19:29,850 that its rule has been legitimate. It 330 00:19:29,850 --> 00:19:33,010 needs to make sure that the election commission is 331 00:19:33,010 --> 00:19:36,510 seen as relatively legitimate. And 332 00:19:36,510 --> 00:19:40,410 so this is a situation in which it is incentive 333 00:19:40,410 --> 00:19:44,050 compatible for both the BJP and the Modi and the 334 00:19:44,050 --> 00:19:47,730 election commission to at least make noises about 335 00:19:47,730 --> 00:19:52,910 sanctioning. The question is whether there's 336 00:19:52,910 --> 00:19:56,510 any bite to the sanction, even after the election 337 00:19:56,510 --> 00:19:58,930 commission says any of this. Do 338 00:19:58,930 --> 00:20:01,550 we somehow believe that Prime Minister Modi will be 339 00:20:01,550 --> 00:20:05,950 barred from campaigning or barred from running? It's 340 00:20:05,950 --> 00:20:08,530 very unlikely and it would probably cause a lot of 341 00:20:08,530 --> 00:20:11,250 violence on the streets if it happened. So 342 00:20:11,250 --> 00:20:16,050 if there is no stick, despite all of these 343 00:20:16,050 --> 00:20:22,450 noises, is it enough to resurrect the credibility of 344 00:20:22,450 --> 00:20:25,370 the election commission, the legitimacy of the election 345 00:20:25,370 --> 00:20:27,430 commission? I don't know. I 346 00:20:27,430 --> 00:20:29,030 always expected that they would make these kinds of 347 00:20:29,030 --> 00:20:32,070 noises. I don't imagine that in the 348 00:20:32,070 --> 00:20:35,690 minds of voters it is nearly enough. Do 349 00:20:35,690 --> 00:20:39,190 voters really care about something like the election 350 00:20:39,190 --> 00:20:42,150 commission strictures? Like you said, it's like it 351 00:20:42,150 --> 00:20:45,070 never has bite. Does that then make it also 352 00:20:45,070 --> 00:20:48,110 like the sort of umpire who just sort of whistles 353 00:20:48,110 --> 00:20:50,810 but doesn't take out a card in a football game? 354 00:20:50,810 --> 00:20:52,410 It just stops the game and 355 00:20:52,410 --> 00:20:55,110 says that's not right and everyone just keeps playing 356 00:20:55,110 --> 00:20:59,470 as they were. We've seen a long term decline 357 00:20:59,470 --> 00:21:03,130 in the legitimacy of the election commission. So 358 00:21:03,130 --> 00:21:06,050 we start from tea in Sashen, we have Kureishi, 359 00:21:06,290 --> 00:21:09,950 we have these sort of personalities in fact that 360 00:21:09,950 --> 00:21:12,130 we associate with the election commission and fair 361 00:21:12,130 --> 00:21:14,430 elections. And so you know in many of 362 00:21:14,430 --> 00:21:17,910 those earlier surveys, 90s, early 2000s, you would see 363 00:21:17,910 --> 00:21:20,810 that actually the election commission was seen as an 364 00:21:20,810 --> 00:21:23,510 extremely legitimate organization. Not 365 00:21:23,510 --> 00:21:25,030 just because of survey response, I think even 366 00:21:25,030 --> 00:21:27,490 today in surveys you'll see that they'll say that, but 367 00:21:27,490 --> 00:21:32,250 genuinely in all kinds of data, you know, qualitative 368 00:21:32,250 --> 00:21:34,890 data collection and so on and so forth. To 369 00:21:34,890 --> 00:21:38,170 a great extent that has fallen apart. I 370 00:21:38,170 --> 00:21:42,010 think that people do believe the average person 371 00:21:42,010 --> 00:21:44,110 you speak to when you're doing field work does 372 00:21:44,110 --> 00:21:46,210 believe that the selection of people on the election 373 00:21:46,210 --> 00:21:50,310 commission is biased. There is something that I do not 374 00:21:50,310 --> 00:21:52,610 believe but there is a belief among certain set of 375 00:21:52,610 --> 00:21:55,410 people, even those who support the BJP, that the 376 00:21:55,410 --> 00:21:58,910 EVMs, the electronic voting machines are not entirely 377 00:21:58,910 --> 00:22:03,210 fair. And there certainly is a view 378 00:22:03,210 --> 00:22:07,810 and perhaps not without reason that the set of 379 00:22:07,810 --> 00:22:10,650 rules that govern who can do what during the election 380 00:22:10,650 --> 00:22:13,990 are biased against the opposition to a greater 381 00:22:13,990 --> 00:22:17,870 extent today than they have been in the past. Now 382 00:22:17,870 --> 00:22:21,210 when those are things that the voter or the citizen 383 00:22:21,210 --> 00:22:23,230 fundamentally feels irrespective of how they 384 00:22:23,230 --> 00:22:25,810 answer to a survey question. They 385 00:22:25,810 --> 00:22:28,350 don't believe that the institution is as legitimate 386 00:22:28,350 --> 00:22:32,530 as it was before. So I agree that they were 387 00:22:32,530 --> 00:22:34,950 always limited in what they could do in the model code 388 00:22:34,950 --> 00:22:37,290 of conduct and how much they could actually force 389 00:22:37,290 --> 00:22:39,890 the party to behave in a particular way. But 390 00:22:39,890 --> 00:22:43,210 in more fundamental ways I think the average citizen, 391 00:22:43,530 --> 00:22:45,570 the average voter questions of legitimacy of the 392 00:22:45,570 --> 00:22:48,490 election commission today. Nilanjan, 393 00:22:48,630 --> 00:22:50,730 the Congress has portrayed to have sort of tied 394 00:22:50,730 --> 00:22:53,230 itself into knots over this whole redistribution of 395 00:22:53,230 --> 00:22:55,730 wealth issue with like you said a manifesto that no 396 00:22:55,730 --> 00:22:57,910 one had read till it came up in the campaign rallies. 397 00:22:58,190 --> 00:22:59,170 And then you have the India 398 00:22:59,170 --> 00:23:02,890 overseas Congress leader talking about it and it's 399 00:23:02,890 --> 00:23:04,850 a whole big thing all over again. How 400 00:23:04,850 --> 00:23:08,410 do you view what the Congress is facing on the 401 00:23:08,410 --> 00:23:11,370 campaign trail and how do you see that dealing with 402 00:23:11,370 --> 00:23:15,470 it so far? So the easiest way of putting 403 00:23:15,470 --> 00:23:18,270 this I think is that it is a real missed 404 00:23:18,270 --> 00:23:20,910 opportunity for the Congress party. I 405 00:23:20,910 --> 00:23:26,130 think the one thing that plays across the political 406 00:23:26,130 --> 00:23:30,390 spectrum, across the social spectrum in India is rising 407 00:23:30,390 --> 00:23:32,950 social inequality. We can define it in economy, 408 00:23:33,350 --> 00:23:35,750 we can define it in other ways, English, non -English. 409 00:23:36,770 --> 00:23:38,350 You hear it on the ground 410 00:23:38,350 --> 00:23:40,850 everywhere. And so one of the reasons why 411 00:23:40,850 --> 00:23:43,410 for instance the farmers protest was so successful, 412 00:23:44,170 --> 00:23:46,810 they very quickly built a narrative about this is not 413 00:23:46,810 --> 00:23:49,630 just about MSP. This is also about Adani and 414 00:23:49,630 --> 00:23:53,590 Ambani and you know all of what that represents. Field 415 00:23:53,590 --> 00:23:57,170 work and later quantitative survey data has shown that 416 00:23:57,170 --> 00:23:59,630 there actually is quite a bit of sympathy for the 417 00:23:59,630 --> 00:24:01,990 farmers even among people who are not directly 418 00:24:01,990 --> 00:24:06,010 affected by the actual economic demands. So 419 00:24:06,010 --> 00:24:09,390 this is the issue that has huge resonance on the 420 00:24:09,390 --> 00:24:13,150 ground and in fact it is the single issue that can 421 00:24:13,150 --> 00:24:22,230 do the most damage to Modi and the BJP. He 422 00:24:22,238 --> 00:24:25,450 is not acting in the interest of the median or 423 00:24:25,450 --> 00:24:29,210 average citizen and is acting in the interest of 424 00:24:29,210 --> 00:24:34,910 a small set of moneyed people or otherwise powerful 425 00:24:34,910 --> 00:24:37,810 people. That is the day the BJP gets 426 00:24:37,810 --> 00:24:41,330 decimated at the polls and everybody understands that. 427 00:24:41,330 --> 00:24:43,790 Then Modi understands that. You 428 00:24:43,790 --> 00:24:45,290 know there is an interesting passage in 429 00:24:45,290 --> 00:24:49,670 Prashant Jaha's book about this where soon after 430 00:24:49,670 --> 00:24:53,770 winning in 2014 Rahul Gandhi had made the jaibe 431 00:24:53,770 --> 00:24:56,929 ki sudh bhut ki sargah. And 432 00:24:56,929 --> 00:25:01,310 Modi transformed himself as a Neta who reached out to 433 00:25:01,310 --> 00:25:05,430 the poor to a much greater extent. And 434 00:25:05,430 --> 00:25:09,690 so even from its very earliest days this version 435 00:25:09,690 --> 00:25:12,250 of the BJP and this version of Prime Minister 436 00:25:12,250 --> 00:25:15,310 Modi has understood that the undoing and the 437 00:25:15,310 --> 00:25:18,950 unraveling can be around issues of economic and 438 00:25:18,950 --> 00:25:24,190 social inequality. So when issues like inheritance 439 00:25:24,190 --> 00:25:27,970 taxes, estate taxes and everything and anything that 440 00:25:27,970 --> 00:25:31,090 comes around it come into play. If 441 00:25:31,090 --> 00:25:34,830 one had put a little bit of thought into it, built 442 00:25:34,830 --> 00:25:38,170 an intelligent campaign around it, it actually 443 00:25:38,170 --> 00:25:40,170 could have had a lot of resonance on the ground. 444 00:25:40,590 --> 00:25:42,050 That simply is not something 445 00:25:42,050 --> 00:25:45,690 that we see today. With the India coalition that we 446 00:25:45,690 --> 00:25:49,110 have seen, it sort of fractured just before the 447 00:25:49,110 --> 00:25:53,190 elections started where you have the PDP NC sort of 448 00:25:53,190 --> 00:25:55,630 breaking ranks suddenly. You have seen all these sort 449 00:25:55,630 --> 00:25:58,090 of random fishers pop up just before the elections. 450 00:25:58,090 --> 00:26:01,010 How do you view that campaign 451 00:26:01,010 --> 00:26:04,390 so far in as much as a sort of united coalition? 452 00:26:05,810 --> 00:26:08,310 For the opposition, I genuinely 453 00:26:08,310 --> 00:26:10,910 view it as a blessing in disguise. I 454 00:26:10,910 --> 00:26:14,110 did this calculation where it took 303 seats that the 455 00:26:14,110 --> 00:26:18,550 BJP won in 2019. And in those seats, I added 456 00:26:18,550 --> 00:26:20,610 the vote shares of the second and third place 457 00:26:20,610 --> 00:26:22,270 party. I didn't even care if it was 458 00:26:22,270 --> 00:26:25,970 in the India coalition. The BJP only lost an extra 30 459 00:26:25,970 --> 00:26:29,530 or 40 seats. Its vote margins were so high 460 00:26:29,530 --> 00:26:32,730 that the third place party very rarely made a 461 00:26:32,730 --> 00:26:35,110 difference at the constituency level. So 462 00:26:35,110 --> 00:26:39,450 given the kinds of vote shares the BJP was getting 463 00:26:39,450 --> 00:26:42,750 and the seats in which it contested, it's very 464 00:26:42,750 --> 00:26:47,070 unlikely that irrespective of whether a coalition was 465 00:26:47,070 --> 00:26:49,590 formed or not, that there would be much of a 466 00:26:49,590 --> 00:26:52,910 difference. The first thing is that it was 467 00:26:52,910 --> 00:26:56,090 always understood that the BJP's vote share has to 468 00:26:56,090 --> 00:27:01,550 drop if you are to weaken the electoral force that is 469 00:27:01,550 --> 00:27:05,490 the BJP. Now, two things have happened 470 00:27:05,490 --> 00:27:08,810 because there is no fixed coalition, there is no 471 00:27:08,810 --> 00:27:14,370 single actor to go after. You 472 00:27:14,370 --> 00:27:16,970 can go after the Congress manifesto but by definition 473 00:27:16,970 --> 00:27:19,930 you have not also gone after UP and TMC and many 474 00:27:19,930 --> 00:27:21,730 of these other parties. They 475 00:27:21,730 --> 00:27:24,890 can still do a lot of damage at the regional 476 00:27:24,890 --> 00:27:27,650 level. The second thing that happened 477 00:27:27,650 --> 00:27:33,810 and there is some evidence for this, that even if at 478 00:27:33,810 --> 00:27:36,850 the national level you were not able to create an 479 00:27:36,850 --> 00:27:42,030 alliance, at more regional levels it does seem like 480 00:27:42,030 --> 00:27:45,170 local units of the Congress party and some of what 481 00:27:45,170 --> 00:27:47,450 would have been in the India coalition have built 482 00:27:47,450 --> 00:27:51,370 tactical alliances. So in that way it's been a 483 00:27:51,370 --> 00:27:53,190 win -win for the opposition. I 484 00:27:53,190 --> 00:27:56,690 don't think that the India coalition could ever have 485 00:27:56,690 --> 00:28:01,890 been a single national idea that was going to do so 486 00:28:01,890 --> 00:28:04,950 much damage to the BJP that its vote share was 487 00:28:04,950 --> 00:28:06,610 going to drop significantly. On 488 00:28:06,610 --> 00:28:09,450 the other hand it was giving a very big target 489 00:28:09,450 --> 00:28:12,390 to Prime Minister Modi who is the most charismatic and 490 00:28:12,390 --> 00:28:16,110 popular politician in India to target the opposition. 491 00:28:16,950 --> 00:28:18,530 So this fragmentation has kind 492 00:28:18,530 --> 00:28:21,110 of made it harder for the BJP to deal with the 493 00:28:21,110 --> 00:28:25,030 opposition. Okay, we just now two phases 494 00:28:25,030 --> 00:28:28,110 into again a very long election. What 495 00:28:28,110 --> 00:28:32,310 do you watch for in the coming days? I'm 496 00:28:32,310 --> 00:28:35,070 going to go back to this idea of why do I care so 497 00:28:35,070 --> 00:28:38,350 much about energy and turnout at the elections. 498 00:28:39,310 --> 00:28:42,150 Let's assume for one second that 499 00:28:42,150 --> 00:28:45,210 turnout and energy levels stay where they are. As 500 00:28:45,218 --> 00:28:47,350 we speak today, energy levels are incredibly low, 501 00:28:47,950 --> 00:28:50,530 turnouts have been coming down. Let 502 00:28:50,530 --> 00:28:54,370 us say further that the BJP actually wins 350 seats 503 00:28:54,370 --> 00:28:56,570 out of 543. There would be a massive 504 00:28:56,570 --> 00:28:58,170 electoral triumph, right? Not 505 00:28:58,170 --> 00:29:01,470 seen since the mid 1980s after the assassination of 506 00:29:01,470 --> 00:29:06,530 Indira Gandhi. Do we believe that these 350 507 00:29:06,530 --> 00:29:11,970 seats would have as much legitimacy and energy behind 508 00:29:11,970 --> 00:29:15,390 it as the Congresses win in the mid 1980s? Or 509 00:29:15,390 --> 00:29:18,590 for that matter these 350 seats would be seen as 510 00:29:18,590 --> 00:29:22,270 much of an electoral triumph as the 282 in 2014 511 00:29:22,270 --> 00:29:27,530 and the 303 in 2019. I don't think so. And 512 00:29:27,530 --> 00:29:30,770 so the BJP and this version of the BJP is 513 00:29:30,770 --> 00:29:35,490 having a certain existential crisis where you have been 514 00:29:35,490 --> 00:29:38,410 built as an electoral juggernaut, but simply 515 00:29:38,410 --> 00:29:42,230 winning elections by a large margin is not helping 516 00:29:42,230 --> 00:29:45,210 your underlying legitimacy. And 517 00:29:45,210 --> 00:29:47,130 one of the things that has happened with largely 518 00:29:47,130 --> 00:29:50,250 uncompetitive elections, the role of state institutions 519 00:29:50,250 --> 00:29:53,970 and politics, is that the sheer legitimacy of 520 00:29:53,970 --> 00:29:57,750 parliamentary politics has become much lesser. And 521 00:29:57,750 --> 00:30:00,050 today if you are in the opposition, again the 522 00:30:00,050 --> 00:30:02,470 farmers are a good example of this. Do 523 00:30:02,470 --> 00:30:04,790 you try to work through a political opposition or do 524 00:30:04,790 --> 00:30:07,290 you take to the streets? So 525 00:30:07,290 --> 00:30:10,070 today the political opposition or the social 526 00:30:10,070 --> 00:30:13,730 opposition understands that it is better to use non 527 00:30:13,730 --> 00:30:18,210 -parliamentary means to register your grievance than 528 00:30:18,210 --> 00:30:20,630 it is to use parliamentary means. And 529 00:30:20,630 --> 00:30:23,550 so the reason why I care about things like turnout 530 00:30:23,550 --> 00:30:27,910 and energy is not just about what it says about 531 00:30:27,910 --> 00:30:31,910 the BJP or the Congress, but what it says about the 532 00:30:31,910 --> 00:30:34,870 legitimacy of parliamentary politics in India as a 533 00:30:34,870 --> 00:30:50,510 whole. Spotify, 534 00:30:51,010 --> 00:30:54,250 Apple, Google Podcast and all other platforms of your 535 00:30:54,250 --> 00:30:57,270 choice. 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