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It's Alex. 
Welcome. 

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There's plenty to talk about. 
First, you want to give some 

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remarks on, I don't know the 
state of Ethereum. 

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What's on your mind that we can 
do it to specific things? 

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From the technical perspective, 
all of the pieces are finally 

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like actually in place to make 
it viable to do the kinds of 

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things that we've been talking 
about doing for a really long 

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time, right? 
And we could give a few 

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different examples of that, 
right? 

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So one of them is obviously 
scale, right? 

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So in, you know, 2017 crypto 
kitties, 2021 Defy, like what 

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broke all of those things? 
This is basically eventually 

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there was so much excitement and
hit against a wall of fixed 

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usage and then the transaction 
fee is 1 to 5050 dollars and a 

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bunch of people got angry. 
Layer twos are collectively 

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doing about 250 TPS. 
And with Petra, there's the 

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upcoming hard fork in two weeks,
the BLOB count will double, 

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it'll go up to 500. 
And then there's a pathway to 

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increase that to about 5000 for 
layer twos. 

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Basically like there's a pretty 
credible path to get to like 

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many thousands of TPS over the 
course of the next year or so. 

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And for the base layer, there's 
been this growing research 

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direction around basically 
asking how do we like super 

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optimize the L1? 
And in particular, how do we 

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like basically one like actually
formalize some of our criteria 

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in terms of preserving the 
networks, decentralization, 

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preserving the networks 
resilience, making sure that 

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we're not just like 525 servers.
And then turning that into 

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something where like we actually
like have a very clear idea of 

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what the constraints are so we 
can super optimize around them, 

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right? 
And so there's a collection of 

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Eips that are planned for 2026 
that, look, they have a very 

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plausible story for scaling the 
L1 gas moment by 10X. 

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And then after that, we of 
course have ZK VMS and that's a 

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story for scaling up even 
higher. 

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And so in terms of scale, like 
we've basically 10X already, 

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right? 
But then and then the question 

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is how do we go further and how 
do we improve interoperability 

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of things that already exist, 
right? 

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And so from a scale point of 
view, like things that could not

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be done two or three years ago 
can be done now, right? 

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So that's scale. 
Another interesting dimension is

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security, right? 
So if you think about Defy 

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right, then if you think about 
the question, well, would you 

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confidently with your, with your
straight face recommends to an 

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average person to use Defy as a 
savings and wealth building 

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vehicle, right? 
I think honestly three or four 

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years ago, the answer just had 
to be an unambiguous no. 

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And the reason basically is that
like what the hell is the point 

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of talk even talking about 6% 
APY versus 4% APY when the thing

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that really matters to people is
not getting, getting -100% APY, 

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right? 
And so the, but the, the thing 

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that we've seen since then, 
right? 

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I've actually, this is 
interesting. 

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Like if you look at the 
statistics, right, if you let 

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go, and I mean like ask the bot,
like basically give me the total

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number, dollar number of D5 
hacks divided by the total 

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number of D5-TV Li asked. 
And the answer it gave us is 

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less is, I think 0.53%, right? 
So basically the in a randomly 

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selected D5 protocol, the chance
that you'll lose money from 

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being hacked is only half a 
percent. 

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And that look like that feels a 
little uncomfortably high. 

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But number one, that's like half
a that's only for risky 

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protocols. 
And if you like things like, is 

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that. 
Being trending down over. 

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Time, yes, and as. 
That's a great grass. 

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Yes, OK. 
And then if you look at things 

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like Ave., like basically the, 
you know, the sturdy stuff like 

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that's. 
Can you make a comment on that? 

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Yeah, I never did any yield 
farming or anything like that 

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because you'd be, quote, 
investing with the expectation 

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of 6% return. 
But you're actually risking your

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entire principal because there 
can be a smart contract hack. 

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You could go to 0, right? 
So instead I'd only risk 

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principal in like an Angel 
investment where I knew that 

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could go to zero. 
And I just held back and waited 

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till D5 matured and now it 
started to mature. 

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Yeah. 
So basically and look for mature

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protocols and like it's even 
lower than half a percent, 

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right. 
And then on top of that, the 

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other risk, of course, is like 
the risk that you personally 

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screw up because something 
happens to your wallet. 

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And then This is why I've been 
like pushing for social 

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recovery, multi six account 
abstraction, all of this stuff 

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nonstop for the last 10 years. 
And the thing that did happen, 

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right, is like the safe front 
end got hacked, right? 

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But if you were using an 
alternative UI, then you were 

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fine. 
If you were checking the 

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transactions you were signing, 
you were fine. 

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And obviously you can't expect 
regular people to do that, 

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right? 
But like basically the 

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infrastructure keeps on 
hardening and there's like 10 

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alternative UI's that you can 
use, right? 

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And so, and even I think the 
base UI is planning to move to 

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something much safer, right? 
And so from an average user 

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point of view, like the, your 
ability to get something which 

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is simultaneously like 
decentralized and not going to 

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waste your money, like that's 
rapidly increasing, right? 

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Like if you remember 2017 in 
2017, like everyone thought that

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smart contract wallets were dead
because the wallet code itself 

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got hacked, right? 
You remember the Parity hack and

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then there was another hack, 
basic parity got hacked twice, 

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right? 
And like that was sort of the 

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needier for trusting smart 
contracts, right? 

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And then since then like the 
safe smart contracts, like the 

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smart contracts have actually 
been perfect like basically for 

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like since the start, right? 
And so each and every one of 

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these things that in the 
beginning phase is this crazy 

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thing and like, Oh my God, there
is a big chance you're gonna 

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lose all of your stuff. 
Now it's like it's maturing and 

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it's more and more just like 
actually completely fine, right?

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It's funny you say it's because 
this is the flipping, right? 

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And I think that it's funny I 
said this to somebody. 

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And what is D5? 
It's what takes over after the 

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current financial system, 
Western financial system ends, 

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right? 
So there's like a flipping of 

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this is actually going to become
more secure than the current 

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Western financial system. 
Go ahead. 

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Yeah, exactly. 
This is the the other side of 

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the graph, right, which is this 
the the degree to which you can 

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realistically expect confidence 
in Tratify. 

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Like honestly, if I had to put 
my like money in a Tratify bank 

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and then I guess even in the US 
and just ask, close my eyes and 

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then wait for a year later, is 
it still there? 

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I would say the risk that it's 
gone is probably a little bit 

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higher than half a percent, 
right. 

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Absolutely. 
Go ahead. 

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Yeah, likely to talk about this.
Go. 

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Yeah, there's definitely people 
who will say it's like some 

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crazy number, like 20% that I 
will think it's that high, 

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right. 
But if you're talking about like

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the survival of your nest egg, 
your retirement savings, like 

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even a frigging like 2% chance 
is scary. 

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Right. 
Well, that's funny because if 

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you take your numbers and you're
saying the risk is higher, don't

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invest in the US dollar, what 
you can't afford to lose, right?

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Yeah, OK. 
We're starting to get more of 

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these assets that are actually 
coming online, right. 

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And so if you, you know, there's
obviously the different U.S. 

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dollars, there's like a bunch of
different U.S. dollars and 

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there's even, I mean, even like 
things like die like they're 

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only partially dependent on like
actual U.S. bank, like bank 

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account deposits. 
And then you're starting to get 

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other kinds of assets. 
You're also starting to get EUR 

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and other currencies. 
And so you're able to get a like

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pretty good diversified mirror 
portfolio. 

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And like your, your level of 
like personal political risk 

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basically drops down to like 0, 
right? 

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And I mean, for a lot of people 
and for like a rapidly growing 

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percentage of the world like 
that's there's a very meaningful

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and like large reductions in, 
you know, your chance of getting

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a -, 100% DPI there. 
That's right. 

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And I think so actually I have a
few comments on this. 

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The first is that aspect of 
projecting rule of law and 

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contracts and so on that we have
talked about for a long time in 

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crypto is actually now not even 
a reality. 

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It's like a necessity in 
Argentina or Nigeria or places 

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like this, right? 
It's actually stable coins are 

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actually being used all over the
world. 

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And I think, I think they 
flipped Visa and MasterCard not 

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too long ago, right? 
Like it's basically more so when

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people say what does crypto do? 
What are the applications? 

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Crypto where you're like, well, 
OK, there's digital gold, OK, 

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fine. 
But aside from that, OK, well, 

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it's like bigger than Visa and 
MasterCard. 

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OK, OK, what else you got right?
Like and you know, then of 

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course it's already very, very 
big. 

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Go ahead. 
Because we're talking about 

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scale, right? 
We've talked about safety also 

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privacy is another big one. 
And Ethereum now has mature 

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privacy solutions with Railway 
now Privacy pools launched. 

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I mean, now even the Tornado 
Cash is legal again, yes. 

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I mean, it never really died, 
right? 

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It actually kept being used. 
But it's legal even in the like,

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even in the US, to use again. 
We have to get Romans free. 

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Roman storm free. 
Free in. 

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Pardon, Alexei. 
Right. 

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It's both. 
Freedom, Freedom. 

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Pardon, Roman freedom. 
Pardon, Alexei. 

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Go ahead. 
Yeah. 

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Yeah, so a lot of a lot of 
improvements there, right. 

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Also in even on the non 
financial side, like even if you

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think about like things like 
forecaster, like I'm honestly 

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impressed by their staying 
power, right. 

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Like I think like the default 
assumption I think any of us 

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would have had a couple years 
ago is like this is cool, this 

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is worth supporting because it's
decentralized, but like it's so 

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hard for these things to like 
actually keep users going for 

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past the honeymoon period where 
they're excited. 

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I'm. 
Super. 

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I love Forecaster so much and 
we're going to do so much with 

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Forecaster. 
It's basically it is the open 

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social platform that we need and
you just like they've, it's like

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a relay race. 
I want to take the baton and go 

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further with it. 
So go here. 

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I can say much more about that 
guy. 

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Yeah. 
Like it's just, it's been 

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running for years. 
It's existed for years. 

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It has multiple clients. 
It has a pretty robust, pretty 

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thriving ecosystem. 
Like a lot of really great stuff

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that's happening in forecaster 
land, right? 

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And it's like, and like a lot of
people are increasingly 

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realizing like the kind of value
that it has. 

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And like even aside from 
decentralization, just the value

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of like a network where you can 
do like, you can talk to 

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interesting people and do 
interesting things and where 

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people are sane, right? 
And yeah, it's, I mean, also a 

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pretty big deal, right? 
And so like both on the 

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infrastructure side and on the 
technical side, like I think 

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we've just been seeing this 
really rapid rise in maturity 

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over the last couple of years 
that I think is like actually 

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really easy to underrate, right?
And it's easy to underrate 

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because like rise of maturity 
often feels like nothing 

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happening at all, right? 
But the thing that is happening 

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is of course stuff not breaking 
and. 

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The reason that's so important 
is once something gets to like 

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100% reliability and it's no 
longer interesting, then you can

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actually use it for something 
because you can only have so 

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many like risk tokens. 
Like if, if you think of like a 

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bunch of Jenga blocks for your 
startup or what have you, all of

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the blocks at the bottom have to
be like 100% like Python, 

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Django, It'll just work, right? 
It's like boring. 

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And then you can have like 1 
risky thing on the top. 

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But if the whole thing is risky,
then it'll be it won't work. 

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So the fact that these have 
gotten to that level of just OK,

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yeah, it'll work. 
Let me move on to the next 

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00:10:55,120 --> 00:10:56,000
scene. 
Allows you to innovate. 

228
00:10:56,080 --> 00:10:57,120
Go ahead. 
OK. 

229
00:10:57,120 --> 00:10:59,560
So talking about the tack, we've
talked about the applications 

230
00:10:59,560 --> 00:11:03,360
like basically, yeah, even in 
prediction markets, another 

231
00:11:03,360 --> 00:11:05,920
example like they've basically 
gone from theory to being 

232
00:11:05,920 --> 00:11:08,400
reality. 
And the thing that I love about 

233
00:11:08,400 --> 00:11:11,000
prediction markets is how. 
Polymark was like the number one

234
00:11:11,000 --> 00:11:13,320
app in the app. 
Store yeah like it gets 

235
00:11:13,480 --> 00:11:17,600
mainstream support and attention
even from the types of people 

236
00:11:17,600 --> 00:11:22,120
who normally think crypto is a 
scam like the types of like US 

237
00:11:22,120 --> 00:11:24,600
political intellectuals that 
normally just like dismiss 

238
00:11:24,600 --> 00:11:27,200
crypto and think of it as failed
like they are the same people 

239
00:11:27,200 --> 00:11:31,040
retweeting polymarket 
screenshots right and so like 

240
00:11:31,040 --> 00:11:34,600
that's like also been like 
probably the first breakout 

241
00:11:34,600 --> 00:11:38,200
other than a kind of classical 
defy that we've we've seen in a 

242
00:11:38,200 --> 00:11:41,520
long time so. 
Another one that's interesting 

243
00:11:41,520 --> 00:11:44,640
is Open Router, right? 
Have you guys seen open Router? 

244
00:11:44,720 --> 00:11:48,440
It let's you use different LMS 
and it just has Metamask login 

245
00:11:48,440 --> 00:11:50,480
is one of the options because it
let's you pay for everything or 

246
00:11:50,480 --> 00:11:52,960
what have you, right? 
That's like crypto as a tool, as

247
00:11:52,960 --> 00:11:56,240
opposed to like crypto hitting 
you in the face all the time, 

248
00:11:56,280 --> 00:11:58,200
right? 
Yeah, like it provides actual 

249
00:11:58,200 --> 00:12:00,600
useful value, right? 
Like you want to be able to talk

250
00:12:00,600 --> 00:12:03,360
to LLMS without them and, you 
know, remembering everything 

251
00:12:03,360 --> 00:12:05,640
about you. 
So on that connecting that to 

252
00:12:05,680 --> 00:12:08,680
Ethereum, you know, like one 
thing that's very, very, very 

253
00:12:08,680 --> 00:12:11,520
rough and you know, I might 
like, I call this label 

254
00:12:11,520 --> 00:12:14,720
extremely approximate is like 
you're kind of roughly the 

255
00:12:14,840 --> 00:12:17,160
center left of crypto. 
I'm roughly the center right of 

256
00:12:17,160 --> 00:12:18,640
crypto. 
And we're both like centrists, 

257
00:12:18,640 --> 00:12:21,160
OK. 
And so one way of thinking about

258
00:12:21,160 --> 00:12:25,360
this is I think Ethereum, like 
you talk about the technology of

259
00:12:25,360 --> 00:12:27,360
it, but I think from the 
community standpoint. 

260
00:12:27,480 --> 00:12:30,520
And so maybe, you know, if you 
guys, have you guys heard of 

261
00:12:30,520 --> 00:12:32,880
like Ezra Klein and Derek 
Thompson's abundance agenda 

262
00:12:32,880 --> 00:12:33,840
thing, right? 
OK. 

263
00:12:33,920 --> 00:12:36,000
So I think that they're a thing 
about the abundance agenda. 

264
00:12:36,000 --> 00:12:38,600
It was based on the concept of 
like Bloomberg Democrats, 

265
00:12:38,600 --> 00:12:42,000
technocratic people as opposed 
to kind of the sort of riots and

266
00:12:42,000 --> 00:12:43,400
fires and so on they're 
happening now. 

267
00:12:43,760 --> 00:12:46,800
But I think that the sort of 
central left abundance agenda 

268
00:12:46,800 --> 00:12:50,480
kind of people should look at 
Ethereum because I think 

269
00:12:50,480 --> 00:12:54,200
Ethereum can make a play for 
being the technocratic Bloomberg

270
00:12:54,200 --> 00:12:59,200
center left of the, let's say, 
post Western or Internet world. 

271
00:12:59,360 --> 00:13:02,160
There's a lot of these sort of 
centrist center left people. 

272
00:13:02,160 --> 00:13:05,160
And if they were actually in 
control of the left, then we 

273
00:13:05,160 --> 00:13:07,080
wouldn't have a problem. 
But they're not right? 

274
00:13:07,600 --> 00:13:09,400
And they're putting up these 
things and they're trying to 

275
00:13:09,400 --> 00:13:11,200
take control of the US 
government or they think they 

276
00:13:11,200 --> 00:13:12,600
are. 
They're not going to be able to 

277
00:13:12,600 --> 00:13:13,840
do it. 
In fact, it's going to go 

278
00:13:14,120 --> 00:13:15,760
crazier. 
It's going to the Luigi left, 

279
00:13:15,760 --> 00:13:17,360
not the not the abundance 
agenda. 

280
00:13:17,360 --> 00:13:19,600
OK. 
And so because it's happening, 

281
00:13:19,600 --> 00:13:22,040
in my view, they have to start 
thinking different and they 

282
00:13:22,080 --> 00:13:23,720
start thinking about the other 
piece, which is startup 

283
00:13:23,720 --> 00:13:27,080
societies, right? 
So Ethereum is also into startup

284
00:13:27,080 --> 00:13:28,920
societies. 
Obviously you have Zulu and all 

285
00:13:28,920 --> 00:13:31,640
the sons and daughters and 
grandchildren, Zulu Zoo, 

286
00:13:31,640 --> 00:13:33,840
Thailand zoo, Georgia Zoo, this 
who that right? 

287
00:13:34,880 --> 00:13:41,240
And the all of those things are 
basically places where you can 

288
00:13:41,240 --> 00:13:42,760
experiment with different forms 
of governance. 

289
00:13:42,760 --> 00:13:44,800
Those are all abundance agenda, 
sympathetic people. 

290
00:13:45,080 --> 00:13:47,480
And so they could actually go 
and do that kind of thing there.

291
00:13:47,560 --> 00:13:51,040
And so I think the technocratic 
center lefts like the Noah 

292
00:13:51,040 --> 00:13:54,880
Smith's, Esher Klein's, David 
Shores, Derek Thompson's should 

293
00:13:54,880 --> 00:13:56,920
really lean into Ethereum, 
right? 

294
00:13:57,240 --> 00:14:00,720
And I think that's actually like
a social or community aspect, 

295
00:14:01,000 --> 00:14:02,800
because that's not crypto as a 
scam. 

296
00:14:02,800 --> 00:14:05,000
That is crypto as actually the 
opposite of it. 

297
00:14:05,000 --> 00:14:06,160
It's actually crypto as 
community. 

298
00:14:06,160 --> 00:14:09,120
It's crypto as rule of laws. 
Crypto has, you know, like 

299
00:14:09,400 --> 00:14:11,480
equality of treatment wherever 
is a peer on the Internet. 

300
00:14:11,520 --> 00:14:13,520
Go ahead. 
I think the like, the important 

301
00:14:13,520 --> 00:14:17,680
thing, right is that it's like 
crypto has been a like a 

302
00:14:17,680 --> 00:14:21,280
symbolic Talisman in a lot of 
like those ways and also other 

303
00:14:21,280 --> 00:14:24,280
ways for a long time. 
But like there is a really big 

304
00:14:24,280 --> 00:14:27,720
difference between a symbolic 
Talisman and something that can 

305
00:14:27,720 --> 00:14:30,440
actually do do things for people
that people directly need, 

306
00:14:30,600 --> 00:14:32,600
right? 
And like, to me, what's 

307
00:14:32,600 --> 00:14:36,280
interesting is that Ethereum 
actually is crossing that chasm 

308
00:14:36,280 --> 00:14:38,440
from being the first into into 
being the 2nd. 

309
00:14:38,480 --> 00:14:41,920
And I mean, also like it's not, 
it's also not just Ethereum, 

310
00:14:41,920 --> 00:14:43,960
right? 
Like this is a part of a, a 

311
00:14:43,960 --> 00:14:46,080
bigger ecosystem. 
And you know, like it goes 

312
00:14:46,080 --> 00:14:49,320
beyond cryptocurrency, beyond 
block chains, even beyond 

313
00:14:49,320 --> 00:14:51,840
cryptography. 
Like one of the topics I've been

314
00:14:51,840 --> 00:14:54,640
talking about quite a bit 
recently is DX and like trying 

315
00:14:54,640 --> 00:14:56,720
to create like this 
decentralized defensive 

316
00:14:56,720 --> 00:15:00,000
acceleration and trying to 
create this kind of bigger tent 

317
00:15:00,360 --> 00:15:03,920
around like basically full, you 
know? 

318
00:15:04,000 --> 00:15:06,360
So on the topic. 
All right, so we're now about 2 

319
00:15:06,360 --> 00:15:08,840
1/2 years after the chat sheet. 
Devon, I want to argue with you 

320
00:15:08,840 --> 00:15:11,600
about this maybe. 
So are you still an AI 

321
00:15:12,520 --> 00:15:14,360
percentage zoomer or I don't 
know. 

322
00:15:14,360 --> 00:15:15,200
Would you? 
Would you, would you? 

323
00:15:15,480 --> 00:15:18,120
Would you call yourself a 
classified like you had you had 

324
00:15:18,120 --> 00:15:19,760
some non zero percentage of it? 
Yeah, yeah. 

325
00:15:19,800 --> 00:15:22,080
I mean, honestly, my IP zoom has
gotten higher. 

326
00:15:23,320 --> 00:15:24,840
Yeah. 
I mean, I think the the basic 

327
00:15:24,840 --> 00:15:27,120
reason is that like progress is 
happening faster than we 

328
00:15:27,120 --> 00:15:29,800
expected and at the same time 
global politics is worse than we

329
00:15:29,800 --> 00:15:31,560
expected. 
I think. 

330
00:15:31,760 --> 00:15:35,920
I mean, one of the, to me, like 
the biggest unrealistic thing in

331
00:15:35,920 --> 00:15:39,640
kind of classical dumorism is 
probably not so much in the 

332
00:15:39,640 --> 00:15:41,240
problem, but in the solution, 
right? 

333
00:15:41,240 --> 00:15:45,880
Because a lot like one of the 
challenges I often see in this 

334
00:15:45,880 --> 00:15:47,120
like. 
Blowing up data centers. 

335
00:15:47,200 --> 00:15:50,880
Well, no, that like that's 
that's actually like the the 

336
00:15:51,200 --> 00:15:54,240
ironically the last naive one. 
The, the naive 1 is like the 

337
00:15:54,240 --> 00:15:59,480
nice guy international treaties 
approach basically because like 

338
00:15:59,480 --> 00:16:03,720
the, the classical solution to 
this right, is like, let's get 

339
00:16:03,720 --> 00:16:06,840
the, you know, the, the world to
like come together and like 

340
00:16:06,880 --> 00:16:09,960
agree to not do all of this 
stuff and at this until we know 

341
00:16:09,960 --> 00:16:11,280
how to do everything safely, 
right? 

342
00:16:11,280 --> 00:16:16,720
And then at the same time, we're
literally talking about a, a 

343
00:16:16,720 --> 00:16:20,600
world where countries are 
invading each other and like 

344
00:16:20,600 --> 00:16:24,680
threatening to invade each other
and like blowing up tariffs to 

345
00:16:24,720 --> 00:16:27,680
Infinity and like all the all 
kinds of different things, 

346
00:16:27,680 --> 00:16:28,920
right? 
And so you know. 

347
00:16:29,640 --> 00:16:33,560
I want to, I want to argue on 
this because I think like in my 

348
00:16:33,560 --> 00:16:36,640
view, killer AI is already here 
and it's called drones, right? 

349
00:16:36,920 --> 00:16:40,640
And AI alignment cannot align 
quote an AI to everybody. 

350
00:16:40,640 --> 00:16:42,280
It has to align it to its 
controller. 

351
00:16:42,680 --> 00:16:44,600
And that could be one tribe or 
another tribe. 

352
00:16:44,600 --> 00:16:46,360
Each tribe will have its own 
drones, right? 

353
00:16:46,600 --> 00:16:48,680
So AI alignment is not 
synonymous with AI safety. 

354
00:16:48,680 --> 00:16:52,760
And in fact, is basically like 
the fact that killer AI equals 

355
00:16:52,760 --> 00:16:56,480
drones, killer AI equals robots 
means I'm not actually concerned

356
00:16:56,480 --> 00:17:00,680
about in my with you image 
generators and tech summarizers,

357
00:17:00,880 --> 00:17:02,720
right. 
Like those aren't those aren't 

358
00:17:02,720 --> 00:17:06,319
going to kill us right. 
The the robots would right and 

359
00:17:06,319 --> 00:17:07,920
go ahead. 
Yeah, So I'm not, I mean, I'm 

360
00:17:07,920 --> 00:17:10,240
not concerned about the image 
generators and summarizers 

361
00:17:10,319 --> 00:17:12,440
either, right. 
I think, I mean I even have the 

362
00:17:12,440 --> 00:17:15,079
receipts for this where I 
publicly like basically said 

363
00:17:15,079 --> 00:17:18,160
that like, hey, I don't expect 
like I basically expected the 

364
00:17:18,319 --> 00:17:21,160
whole election deepfake thing to
be a total nothing burger. 

365
00:17:21,160 --> 00:17:23,720
And it has been. 
I mean, I think to me like the 

366
00:17:23,720 --> 00:17:30,480
flip from like danger being only
sort of human to AI to danger 

367
00:17:30,480 --> 00:17:34,120
being potentially AI started 
like outcomes when AI crosses 

368
00:17:34,120 --> 00:17:37,320
like that roughly human level 
kind of autonomy and generality 

369
00:17:37,320 --> 00:17:39,240
threshold. 
OK, so that autonomy is a big 

370
00:17:39,240 --> 00:17:41,880
thing I want to poke on, right? 
I think to me, the biggest 

371
00:17:41,880 --> 00:17:44,960
surprise and the biggest 
argument among my tech friends, 

372
00:17:44,960 --> 00:17:48,200
maybe yours over the last two, 2
1/2 years, especially around the

373
00:17:48,200 --> 00:17:51,880
time the chat sheet came out is 
will prompting endure, right. 

374
00:17:52,240 --> 00:17:54,880
And the fact that prompting has 
endured over the last 2 1/2 

375
00:17:54,880 --> 00:17:57,520
years and it shows no signs of 
going away unless just some 

376
00:17:57,520 --> 00:18:00,200
enormous technological 
breakthrough, means to me that 

377
00:18:00,200 --> 00:18:02,040
prompting is just higher order 
programming. 

378
00:18:02,560 --> 00:18:04,960
And it's just programming in 
English and then you have 

379
00:18:05,440 --> 00:18:07,320
programming in Python And you're
programming in assembly. 

380
00:18:07,720 --> 00:18:10,440
And so if prompting doesn't go 
away, you don't actually have 

381
00:18:10,440 --> 00:18:14,080
truly autonomous intelligence. 
You have amplified intelligence.

382
00:18:14,080 --> 00:18:15,560
It's not a gentic intelligence. 
Go ahead. 

383
00:18:15,720 --> 00:18:17,280
So given that assumption I 
agree. 

384
00:18:17,360 --> 00:18:21,160
But there is there is this 
interesting chart that shows the

385
00:18:21,840 --> 00:18:25,600
the time duration of tasks so 
that AI can complete 

386
00:18:25,600 --> 00:18:28,840
autonomously and it has a 
doubling time of roughly every 

387
00:18:28,840 --> 00:18:31,440
seven months. 
And like historically, like 

388
00:18:31,440 --> 00:18:34,880
basically like naively assuming 
that curves will exponential 

389
00:18:34,880 --> 00:18:38,080
curves will continue has been a 
much better AI prediction method

390
00:18:38,080 --> 00:18:39,480
than like pretty much anything 
else. 

391
00:18:39,480 --> 00:18:42,440
And so if you naively follow the
curve, then you basically get to

392
00:18:42,520 --> 00:18:45,080
AI completing tasks on the 
length of a human lifetime by 

393
00:18:45,080 --> 00:18:48,320
about 2035. 
Maybe it's possible, but I think

394
00:18:49,000 --> 00:18:52,000
I don't know, the Transformers 
coherence breaks down and so so 

395
00:18:52,200 --> 00:18:54,160
there's certain kinds of things 
where like training is starting 

396
00:18:54,160 --> 00:18:56,840
to top out, like you're hitting 
the available amounts of data 

397
00:18:56,840 --> 00:18:58,320
out there. 
They need to generate them right

398
00:18:58,600 --> 00:19:00,640
so often. 
So I understand your argument. 

399
00:19:00,640 --> 00:19:04,240
My counter argument is that is 
that I think genuine algorithmic

400
00:19:04,240 --> 00:19:05,880
breakthroughs, conceptual 
breakthroughs are hard. 

401
00:19:05,880 --> 00:19:08,600
I can't say that it's 
impossible, but I would say that

402
00:19:10,600 --> 00:19:13,520
right now prompting is much more
of a constraint than people are 

403
00:19:13,520 --> 00:19:16,280
giving it credit for. 
That's a the other thing is, you

404
00:19:16,280 --> 00:19:17,760
know, and this is like a counter
argument. 

405
00:19:17,760 --> 00:19:21,040
Some of the stuff that Elie 
Eiser talks about is I think he 

406
00:19:21,040 --> 00:19:24,640
really underrates chaos, 
turbulence and fundamentally 

407
00:19:24,640 --> 00:19:28,560
mathematical systems or physical
systems where predictability is 

408
00:19:28,640 --> 00:19:30,800
genuinely constrained 
mathematically. 

409
00:19:30,800 --> 00:19:33,760
Like you cannot predict beyond a
certain window given finite 

410
00:19:33,760 --> 00:19:36,160
precision arithmetic. 
And if you, you could actually, 

411
00:19:36,160 --> 00:19:39,000
just as a thought experiment, 
have have an AI try to predict 

412
00:19:39,000 --> 00:19:42,400
the motion of a fluid under 
turbulence, it can't do that 

413
00:19:42,400 --> 00:19:45,240
without inventing math or maybe 
doing things we don't think are 

414
00:19:45,240 --> 00:19:48,200
even possible, right? 
So if that just shows that 

415
00:19:48,200 --> 00:19:50,280
there's limits on what AI can 
just do as a purely 

416
00:19:50,280 --> 00:19:52,560
computational thing, non 
empirical thing, I don't know. 

417
00:19:52,560 --> 00:19:56,280
I'm just like the idea of one 
prompt and it just runs for the 

418
00:19:56,280 --> 00:19:57,200
whole life. 
Go ahead. 

419
00:19:57,760 --> 00:20:01,280
And so I do think that like 
there have been like walls that 

420
00:20:01,280 --> 00:20:04,240
have broken before, right? 
Like so the, the big one that I 

421
00:20:04,240 --> 00:20:07,480
think really updated me towards 
some more concern is the whole 

422
00:20:07,480 --> 00:20:09,360
like deep sea car one chain of 
thought thing. 

423
00:20:09,640 --> 00:20:12,600
And the reason why that updated 
me toward concern is because 

424
00:20:12,800 --> 00:20:16,560
before that we were in a regime 
where it felt like the thing 

425
00:20:16,560 --> 00:20:19,560
that AI is fundamentally doing 
is it's just like basically 

426
00:20:19,560 --> 00:20:21,920
copying and kind of 
interpolating off of existing 

427
00:20:21,920 --> 00:20:24,200
training data. 
And so if you just do that, then

428
00:20:24,200 --> 00:20:27,360
the logical outcome is that AI 
can do lots of things that like 

429
00:20:27,360 --> 00:20:28,360
roughly. 
Actually the level of the 

430
00:20:28,360 --> 00:20:30,360
smartest humans, but then it 
tops off there and then you 

431
00:20:30,360 --> 00:20:31,320
can't really go. 
For it, right? 

432
00:20:31,320 --> 00:20:34,280
But the chance on genuinely 
shows deliberations like a smart

433
00:20:34,280 --> 00:20:35,680
person thinking about it. 
That's right. 

434
00:20:35,680 --> 00:20:36,920
Yeah. 
And like basically the way it 

435
00:20:36,920 --> 00:20:41,640
works right is that you start 
off with a model and then you 

436
00:20:41,640 --> 00:20:45,360
ask it to solve problems where 
you can objectively determine if

437
00:20:45,360 --> 00:20:48,000
the answer is right or wrong. 
You have it like run 10,000 

438
00:20:48,000 --> 00:20:49,080
chains of thought and give an 
answer. 

439
00:20:49,080 --> 00:20:50,720
Then you filter for the ones 
where I got it right. 

440
00:20:50,720 --> 00:20:52,720
And then you just train on that 
again and you repeat the loop, 

441
00:20:52,720 --> 00:20:54,920
right. 
And then I like there for me, 

442
00:20:55,120 --> 00:20:58,640
for the first time we actually 
saw a training loop that could 

443
00:20:58,640 --> 00:21:02,960
plausibly get us all the way to 
superhuman and like there wasn't

444
00:21:02,960 --> 00:21:04,880
something that it's obviously 
constrained by. 

445
00:21:05,400 --> 00:21:07,520
Interesting. 
Yeah, it's because it's not just

446
00:21:07,520 --> 00:21:10,240
the probabilistic, it's also the
multiple plans and then 

447
00:21:10,240 --> 00:21:13,680
selecting from them. 
I don't know, I, I think, well, 

448
00:21:13,680 --> 00:21:15,840
OK, here's the third piece, 
fourth piece, here's how you 

449
00:21:15,840 --> 00:21:18,960
would do this. 
This is this is like the how 

450
00:21:19,040 --> 00:21:21,160
don't build the Torment Nexus. 
How would you build the Torment 

451
00:21:21,160 --> 00:21:23,320
Nexus thing or whatever? 
But let's say 1 moment to go 

452
00:21:23,320 --> 00:21:27,880
about doing that, the So I think
embodiment is obviously another 

453
00:21:27,880 --> 00:21:30,760
big piece. 
And I think that purely digital 

454
00:21:30,760 --> 00:21:33,040
AI just can't do it. 
It's like a, it's like a life 

455
00:21:33,040 --> 00:21:36,360
form that only lives underwater.
And when it comes out onto air, 

456
00:21:36,480 --> 00:21:39,480
no matter if it's a giant blue 
whale, it's going to run out. 

457
00:21:39,480 --> 00:21:41,040
Of air. 
I agree with this too, but like 

458
00:21:41,040 --> 00:21:43,040
tensible optimists are pretty 
frigging impressive. 

459
00:21:43,200 --> 00:21:45,200
Yeah, well, yeah. 
So actually the Unitaries and 

460
00:21:45,200 --> 00:21:46,400
all these humanoids have gone. 
Impressive. 

461
00:21:46,400 --> 00:21:47,040
Exactly. 
That's right. 

462
00:21:47,240 --> 00:21:49,200
So the embodiment will get 
solved, right? 

463
00:21:50,720 --> 00:21:52,920
And but then it has to collect 
lots of sensor data. 

464
00:21:52,920 --> 00:21:55,040
And I think ultimately it has to
have goals, right? 

465
00:21:55,320 --> 00:21:57,960
Because without goals, that's 
actually the very hardest thing.

466
00:21:57,960 --> 00:22:02,920
Like humans, markets and 
politics are domains where train

467
00:22:02,920 --> 00:22:05,600
and test doesn't. 
If it worked, then you'd be able

468
00:22:05,600 --> 00:22:07,360
to just make tons of money in 
the market. 

469
00:22:07,360 --> 00:22:10,520
You'd be able to win elections. 
These are inherently time 

470
00:22:10,520 --> 00:22:13,560
varying domains that, yeah, I 
can't crack right now because 

471
00:22:13,560 --> 00:22:15,800
you don't actually have an 
approach to time invariant 

472
00:22:15,800 --> 00:22:16,400
domains. 
Go ahead. 

473
00:22:17,640 --> 00:22:21,480
Yeah. 
Well, I do know that like AI has

474
00:22:21,480 --> 00:22:25,200
been showing behavior that's 
more and more goal, like, right?

475
00:22:25,240 --> 00:22:27,920
And like it is a market 
incentive to try to train for 

476
00:22:27,920 --> 00:22:30,520
that, right? 
It's a market incentive to try 

477
00:22:30,520 --> 00:22:33,560
to create a thing where you can 
basically tell it like, hey, 

478
00:22:33,760 --> 00:22:36,000
make a web app for me. 
And then it just goes off for 

479
00:22:36,000 --> 00:22:38,000
six hours and like you don't 
have to think about it again. 

480
00:22:38,000 --> 00:22:39,400
And then you would get a web app
at the end. 

481
00:22:39,560 --> 00:22:40,760
Right. 
Well, the question is though 

482
00:22:40,880 --> 00:22:43,320
there might be an MDL kind of 
argument here, right? 

483
00:22:43,520 --> 00:22:46,600
Minimum description length or 
like input complexity kind of 

484
00:22:46,600 --> 00:22:52,640
thing where there like, you 
know, the number of bits, of 

485
00:22:52,640 --> 00:22:55,200
course it's got like the web or 
whatever, it's got it all cache 

486
00:22:55,200 --> 00:22:56,720
there, right? 
So if you're looking up an 

487
00:22:56,720 --> 00:23:00,880
existing solution, a small input
is enough to pull that out, 

488
00:23:00,880 --> 00:23:02,240
right? 
Like if you want a Sudoku 

489
00:23:02,240 --> 00:23:03,920
solver, you can just pull that 
out. 

490
00:23:04,280 --> 00:23:06,920
But if you're trying, the more 
novel it is that you're trying 

491
00:23:06,920 --> 00:23:10,800
to make something make it do, 
then the more input prompting 

492
00:23:10,800 --> 00:23:13,000
there's going to you're going to
need and it's not going to be 

493
00:23:13,000 --> 00:23:14,400
like a one shot that just gets 
it. 

494
00:23:14,480 --> 00:23:15,680
Maybe that's my argument. 
Go ahead. 

495
00:23:16,080 --> 00:23:18,000
Right. 
But I, I guess saying in 

496
00:23:18,000 --> 00:23:22,440
general, right, the way, so my, 
like my, my, my prediction on 

497
00:23:22,440 --> 00:23:26,280
that is like for any particular 
category of thinking, like at 

498
00:23:26,280 --> 00:23:28,720
some point we are going to get 
to the point where AI has done 

499
00:23:28,720 --> 00:23:30,560
it, right? 
And the reason and we know it 

500
00:23:30,560 --> 00:23:32,320
cannot do it because humans have
done it. 

501
00:23:32,320 --> 00:23:36,040
And humans are basically the 
result of like just storing some

502
00:23:36,040 --> 00:23:38,680
molecules in a soup and then 
doing about two to the like 10 

503
00:23:38,680 --> 00:23:41,080
to the 40 computation steps of 
evolution, right? 

504
00:23:41,280 --> 00:23:43,200
That part so. 
So I'm not making the argument 

505
00:23:43,200 --> 00:23:46,760
that AI won't be able to think 
through bioinformatics or 

506
00:23:46,760 --> 00:23:49,520
physics or something like that. 
I'm making the argument that 

507
00:23:49,880 --> 00:23:52,960
it'll have to be prompted to do 
so because the prompts are so 

508
00:23:52,960 --> 00:23:56,160
high dimensional that they're a 
direction vector in a very, 

509
00:23:56,160 --> 00:23:57,960
very, very, very high 
dimensional space. 

510
00:23:58,360 --> 00:24:01,360
And so how is AI to search that 
direction and figure out what to

511
00:24:01,360 --> 00:24:03,320
do for humans? 
It's basically like a 

512
00:24:03,320 --> 00:24:05,840
reproduction, right? 
So if you actually had the 

513
00:24:05,840 --> 00:24:09,800
Skynet scenario where you had 
robots that could dig out, you 

514
00:24:09,800 --> 00:24:13,920
know, data centers or whatever 
it was for the, you know, AI to 

515
00:24:13,920 --> 00:24:15,920
live and they could actually 
mine the ore and set up the 

516
00:24:16,080 --> 00:24:18,760
power generators. 
They get the full reproducible 

517
00:24:18,760 --> 00:24:20,760
loop where they set up the 
factories to turn out more 

518
00:24:20,760 --> 00:24:23,120
robots and have more AI to 
script it. 

519
00:24:23,400 --> 00:24:25,360
Then you could actually have 
something where I could have a 

520
00:24:25,360 --> 00:24:27,120
goal of reproducing or whatever,
right? 

521
00:24:27,120 --> 00:24:30,440
Like a Terminator like scenario,
but, and it's not impossible 

522
00:24:30,440 --> 00:24:34,120
physically, but the thing about 
that is probably prior to that 

523
00:24:34,120 --> 00:24:36,040
we probably have a lot of kill 
switches in these robots. 

524
00:24:36,040 --> 00:24:38,120
Like a lot of the stuff was 
like, Oh my God, it's going to 

525
00:24:38,120 --> 00:24:41,400
learn how to bust out-of-the-box
and it's going to like run on 

526
00:24:41,400 --> 00:24:44,840
every computer like Skynet and 
and it's going to, it's going to

527
00:24:44,840 --> 00:24:46,720
explode out of containment, 
right? 

528
00:24:47,040 --> 00:24:48,120
Do you still think that's 
possible? 

529
00:24:48,120 --> 00:24:49,920
I can give you arguments. 
That's why I don't think that's 

530
00:24:49,920 --> 00:24:51,360
possible in that way. 
Yeah. 

531
00:24:51,360 --> 00:24:54,360
And I think and AI getting out 
of containment like that part is

532
00:24:54,360 --> 00:24:56,080
possible. 
I mean, I can say like what 

533
00:24:56,080 --> 00:24:59,160
parts of the, I don't know, the 
sort of the doom pipeline I'm 

534
00:24:59,160 --> 00:25:02,720
more skeptical of. 
So have you have you read the AI

535
00:25:02,720 --> 00:25:07,000
2027 post? 
Yeah, but it's I, I, I, I'm I 

536
00:25:07,000 --> 00:25:09,560
like, I like some of the people 
there, but I've not I, I just 

537
00:25:09,560 --> 00:25:12,080
think it's. 
Why do you think it's naive? 

538
00:25:13,000 --> 00:25:15,640
For example, it assumes that 
it's like US versus China, and 

539
00:25:16,480 --> 00:25:17,880
there's a lot of things that it 
gets wrong. 

540
00:25:17,880 --> 00:25:20,960
In my life, but and so for me, 
like the biggest technical thing

541
00:25:20,960 --> 00:25:24,480
that felt very implausible is 
that it assumes a world where 

542
00:25:24,480 --> 00:25:26,800
like the where within their 
universe. 

543
00:25:26,800 --> 00:25:31,640
Like they literally say this by 
January 2029, aging and cancer 

544
00:25:31,640 --> 00:25:34,840
are both solved problems like 
cure for aging, cure for cancer,

545
00:25:34,840 --> 00:25:36,880
They're both listed under 
emerging technologies. 

546
00:25:37,320 --> 00:25:40,200
In this kind of world, it's 
absolutely impossible that we 

547
00:25:40,200 --> 00:25:42,560
will not have solved pandemics, 
right? 

548
00:25:42,560 --> 00:25:44,760
And like in 20-30, like 
basically it's assumed that the 

549
00:25:44,880 --> 00:25:46,920
AI kills everyone with super 
viruses, right? 

550
00:25:47,440 --> 00:25:51,160
And like, I think generally, 
again, you know, like those 

551
00:25:51,160 --> 00:25:53,400
kinds of argument, like the 
arguments, like they're at their

552
00:25:53,400 --> 00:25:56,240
strongest when you try to like 
step back and go into the 

553
00:25:56,240 --> 00:25:59,280
abstract and you might say this 
question like, oh, well, see, 

554
00:25:59,280 --> 00:26:02,040
you know, you have no idea how 
stockfish is going to beat you 

555
00:26:02,040 --> 00:26:03,800
at chess, but you know that it 
is going to beat you. 

556
00:26:04,120 --> 00:26:09,800
But then the challenge with that
metaphor is that if like if you 

557
00:26:09,800 --> 00:26:12,640
give, if you provide a handicap,
right, Like actually if you 

558
00:26:12,640 --> 00:26:16,760
provide, if you take away a Rook
from stockfish, then even today 

559
00:26:16,760 --> 00:26:20,280
grandmasters can a lot of the 
time beat like top ranking 

560
00:26:20,280 --> 00:26:22,840
stockfish AI. 
And if you handicap the queen, 

561
00:26:22,840 --> 00:26:25,640
then the grandmasters, human 
grandmasters just wipe the 

562
00:26:25,640 --> 00:26:28,440
floor, right? 
And so there is only so much 

563
00:26:28,440 --> 00:26:33,040
that a particular threshold of 
intelligence can actually give 

564
00:26:33,040 --> 00:26:33,640
you, right? 
So. 

565
00:26:34,440 --> 00:26:37,200
Well, to that, actually, one of 
the most interesting things that

566
00:26:37,200 --> 00:26:43,000
I saw was was with alpha go, you
could play adversarial input to 

567
00:26:43,000 --> 00:26:45,600
alpha go right? 
And you just beat alpha go 

568
00:26:45,680 --> 00:26:47,040
right? 
Meaning what that means is just 

569
00:26:47,040 --> 00:26:50,040
for the people who don't know 
this, like with AI image 

570
00:26:50,040 --> 00:26:53,400
classification, because the way 
it works, you can feed it an 

571
00:26:53,400 --> 00:26:56,960
image that's looks exactly like 
a dog, but a certain calculated 

572
00:26:56,960 --> 00:26:59,400
layer of static on top of it 
that's invisible to the human 

573
00:26:59,400 --> 00:27:01,240
eye. 
But that makes AI think it's a 

574
00:27:01,240 --> 00:27:03,080
cat, right? 
That's called adversarial input.

575
00:27:03,320 --> 00:27:06,800
And to my knowledge at least, 
there's been no way of defeating

576
00:27:06,800 --> 00:27:08,360
this. 
This is something which just an 

577
00:27:08,360 --> 00:27:10,560
intrinsic way of how deep 
learning works. 

578
00:27:10,560 --> 00:27:12,720
To my knowledge at least, I 
haven't seen a paper that does 

579
00:27:12,720 --> 00:27:14,520
that. 
So and that actually also 

580
00:27:14,520 --> 00:27:17,760
applies for example, to games. 
If you give an input to the AI 

581
00:27:17,760 --> 00:27:20,800
that's just way outside it's 
training data, you can win the 

582
00:27:20,800 --> 00:27:23,640
game of Go by doing something 
that's totally crazy that AI has

583
00:27:23,640 --> 00:27:25,440
never seen before. 
And it's actually funny. 

584
00:27:25,440 --> 00:27:28,720
It's almost like that Hollywood 
movie intuition about AI is like

585
00:27:28,720 --> 00:27:32,880
you do something that the robot,
it goes beep, you know, and it 

586
00:27:32,880 --> 00:27:34,880
turns the wrong way because 
you're doing something very 

587
00:27:34,880 --> 00:27:36,480
human that it can't expect. 
Right. 

588
00:27:36,920 --> 00:27:43,160
And so to your to your other 
point about like the cure cancer

589
00:27:43,160 --> 00:27:45,760
type stuff. 
This is in my view, people, you 

590
00:27:45,760 --> 00:27:47,760
know, I have this concept of the
never see a book of like God 

591
00:27:47,760 --> 00:27:49,960
state network, like what is the 
most powerful force in the 

592
00:27:49,960 --> 00:27:51,240
world? 
These are people who have 

593
00:27:51,240 --> 00:27:54,200
substituted like AGI for God, 
right? 

594
00:27:54,560 --> 00:27:57,800
And what they do, I think is 
they really, really underrate 

595
00:27:57,800 --> 00:28:01,160
empiricism. 
And like, I know something about

596
00:28:01,160 --> 00:28:02,520
biotech, you know something 
about biotech. 

597
00:28:02,760 --> 00:28:04,640
You need to whatever theory you 
have. 

598
00:28:04,640 --> 00:28:06,960
And you might be able to 
actually do a lot in terms of 

599
00:28:06,960 --> 00:28:10,120
taking all existing papers, 
indexing them, digesting them, 

600
00:28:10,120 --> 00:28:12,240
coming up with theories on the 
basis you can do a lot with 

601
00:28:12,240 --> 00:28:12,880
that. 
For sure. 

602
00:28:12,880 --> 00:28:16,440
It's by medical text mining. 
But then you have to test those 

603
00:28:16,440 --> 00:28:18,800
theories. 
You have to actually go and have

604
00:28:18,800 --> 00:28:21,560
test tubes and you have to 
actually see if it works. 

605
00:28:21,560 --> 00:28:23,040
And you just won't know if it 
works. 

606
00:28:23,040 --> 00:28:24,400
You're actually going to be able
to intuit. 

607
00:28:24,560 --> 00:28:26,720
You might have a theory, but you
have to do practice. 

608
00:28:26,720 --> 00:28:28,400
Go ahead, give me your thoughts.
Yeah. 

609
00:28:28,400 --> 00:28:31,760
And I I expect that sort of 
thing to be like a not not an 

610
00:28:31,760 --> 00:28:34,440
issue at all in sub domain some 
domains, but then a huge 

611
00:28:34,440 --> 00:28:37,080
bottleneck in other domains. 
Yeah, well, embodiment and 

612
00:28:37,080 --> 00:28:40,520
experiment are massive 
bottlenecks on the I huge. 

613
00:28:40,600 --> 00:28:42,680
Like they underrate the physical
world dramatically. 

614
00:28:42,960 --> 00:28:44,440
They underrate an experiment 
dramatically. 

615
00:28:46,120 --> 00:28:49,400
Like for embodiment, I mean, if 
like if you look at, you know, 

616
00:28:49,400 --> 00:28:55,640
like the even the current bots 
right, then like they already 

617
00:28:55,640 --> 00:28:58,800
have a lot of advantages, right?
Like I think if right now we had

618
00:28:58,800 --> 00:29:02,200
to bet on who would win a karate
match between like a human and 

619
00:29:02,200 --> 00:29:03,720
Tesla optimist, like, what would
you say? 

620
00:29:04,480 --> 00:29:08,000
I mean, like a gun would. 
Machines have been humans for a 

621
00:29:08,000 --> 00:29:10,040
long time, right? 
I don't know, actually. 

622
00:29:10,720 --> 00:29:14,000
Like a karate match. 
I'm not sure how agile they are 

623
00:29:14,040 --> 00:29:15,680
actually. 
I've seen the videos of them. 

624
00:29:15,800 --> 00:29:17,080
I think they'll eventually get 
there. 

625
00:29:17,080 --> 00:29:19,200
Yeah, they'll get there. 
Well, I think realistically 

626
00:29:19,200 --> 00:29:21,160
they'll beat us on totally 
different domains, right? 

627
00:29:21,600 --> 00:29:23,520
Like air is the big one. 
Right. 

628
00:29:23,560 --> 00:29:26,000
OK, So when I say embodiment, 
what I mean by that is you have 

629
00:29:26,000 --> 00:29:27,760
to manufacture the robots. 
You have to have them be 

630
00:29:27,760 --> 00:29:29,800
economically feasible. 
You have to transfer them to the

631
00:29:29,800 --> 00:29:31,640
location. 
I'm not saying that these are 

632
00:29:31,640 --> 00:29:34,640
unsolvable problems, but the 
friction of the physical world 

633
00:29:34,640 --> 00:29:38,200
is radically like basically what
we need to do for some of these 

634
00:29:38,200 --> 00:29:41,160
scenarios to happen is you need 
to have as many humanoid robots 

635
00:29:41,160 --> 00:29:44,160
as there are smartphones, right?
Like a billion of them. 

636
00:29:44,560 --> 00:29:47,240
And that means you have to crack
all kinds of business model type

637
00:29:47,240 --> 00:29:48,360
stuff. 
I mean, it'll eventually get 

638
00:29:48,360 --> 00:29:51,440
there, but it's it's something 
where the people are like, oh, 

639
00:29:51,480 --> 00:29:53,200
cure AI by 20. 
I just don't think their 

640
00:29:53,200 --> 00:29:56,360
timelines are correct. 
And I also think, I mean, So 

641
00:29:56,360 --> 00:29:58,600
what do you have to have? 
You have to have a a robot that 

642
00:29:58,600 --> 00:30:00,560
can do all the experiments that 
a human could do. 

643
00:30:00,760 --> 00:30:03,240
They're at a bench, they're 
running those experiments, They 

644
00:30:03,240 --> 00:30:05,400
have the reagents, They have to 
have the whole supply chain for 

645
00:30:05,400 --> 00:30:06,840
them. 
This is just stuff which is 

646
00:30:06,840 --> 00:30:09,520
friction that just doesn't move 
as fast as the Internet. 

647
00:30:09,520 --> 00:30:10,720
And I think they're underrating 
that. 

648
00:30:10,720 --> 00:30:12,720
Go ahead. 
So I actually, I mean, I do 

649
00:30:12,720 --> 00:30:15,640
think that there's enough of a 
risk that this stuff will happen

650
00:30:15,640 --> 00:30:18,280
very fast, the fast for us to 
worry, right? 

651
00:30:18,400 --> 00:30:22,560
And I mean, like, I think 
probability of more humanoid 

652
00:30:22,560 --> 00:30:26,400
robots than humans by 2040. 
I think it's like very non 0. 

653
00:30:26,800 --> 00:30:29,280
I agree with that. 
I think it's funny over the last

654
00:30:29,280 --> 00:30:32,800
2 1/2 years, I feel like AI is 
being both overrated and 

655
00:30:32,800 --> 00:30:34,520
underrated. 
And here's why I said like 

656
00:30:34,840 --> 00:30:37,160
obviously it's ridiculously 
important and that's since 

657
00:30:37,160 --> 00:30:38,640
underrated. 
I think the long term is right, 

658
00:30:38,960 --> 00:30:42,480
but in terms of it's like, it's 
funny how people are actually 

659
00:30:42,480 --> 00:30:47,680
using AI in practice is they're 
just like being extremely lazy 

660
00:30:47,680 --> 00:30:49,840
and using ChatGPT for essays, 
right? 

661
00:30:50,200 --> 00:30:54,480
Or like it's amazing how many 
people will just like literally 

662
00:30:54,480 --> 00:30:56,800
have ChatGPT write their tweets.
And I'm like, the only thing I 

663
00:30:56,800 --> 00:30:59,600
can tell, it's like, you know, 
there's like a rhetorical 

664
00:30:59,600 --> 00:31:02,600
question mark and a it's not 
this, it's that, you know, kind 

665
00:31:02,600 --> 00:31:04,280
of thing. 
There's go ahead, right? 

666
00:31:04,960 --> 00:31:07,960
There's certain things they do 
where it's like actually, I want

667
00:31:07,960 --> 00:31:11,160
a plug in which Chrome plugin? 
Maybe some of you guys can code 

668
00:31:11,160 --> 00:31:13,440
this. 
That's like is under score AI 

669
00:31:13,760 --> 00:31:18,720
that runs AI detection on every 
string on a, on a site and then 

670
00:31:18,720 --> 00:31:21,320
gives you a link. 
Because what'll happen is if you

671
00:31:21,320 --> 00:31:24,000
say to somebody that posts AI, 
sometimes they'll be like, no, 

672
00:31:24,000 --> 00:31:26,800
it's not or whatever. 
And sometimes it actually isn't,

673
00:31:26,800 --> 00:31:28,880
you know, right. 
And it's kind of like an 

674
00:31:28,880 --> 00:31:31,440
accusation of you're dumb. 
That's AI, they get offended or 

675
00:31:31,440 --> 00:31:34,520
whatever, right? 
And and so there's like a lot of

676
00:31:34,520 --> 00:31:37,600
secret AI. 
And so if you run is AI, you get

677
00:31:37,600 --> 00:31:40,040
like an either scan link and 
it'll tell you why that was 

678
00:31:40,040 --> 00:31:42,680
likely to be AI, not either 
scan, but a link that's like 

679
00:31:42,680 --> 00:31:43,760
that a permalink. 
OK. 

680
00:31:44,160 --> 00:31:47,560
And then you paste it and you're
like, is AI, you know, 

681
00:31:47,560 --> 00:31:51,680
probability 73% and you reply to
that on X and it's like, did I 

682
00:31:51,920 --> 00:31:54,760
like, let me AI that for you or 
not AI that for you, right? 

683
00:31:55,720 --> 00:31:57,800
And I think so. 
So, So the way it's being used 

684
00:31:57,800 --> 00:32:01,320
is like a not all, but it's like
an idiocratic version of it, 

685
00:32:01,400 --> 00:32:03,080
right? 
The smarter you are, the better 

686
00:32:03,080 --> 00:32:05,840
you use AI and the Dumber people
are or the less taste they have,

687
00:32:05,840 --> 00:32:09,600
the worse they use AI, right? 
But that's it just feels very 

688
00:32:09,600 --> 00:32:11,920
different than any emergence 
path of AI that's being in 

689
00:32:11,920 --> 00:32:14,000
science fiction or literature or
anything like that. 

690
00:32:14,000 --> 00:32:15,080
Go ahead, give me your thoughts.
Yeah. 

691
00:32:15,160 --> 00:32:18,800
And I think the emergence path 
of AI has violated expectations 

692
00:32:18,800 --> 00:32:21,080
in just like all kinds of 
different ways, right? 

693
00:32:21,080 --> 00:32:25,960
And, and so I mean, even, I 
mean, like it just repeatedly 

694
00:32:25,960 --> 00:32:28,720
keeps on doing that, right? 
Like if you think of like even 

695
00:32:28,720 --> 00:32:35,240
the 1970s, like they like they 
would not have expected AI to be

696
00:32:35,240 --> 00:32:39,120
able to solve arbitrarily 
complex arithmetic in like 10 

697
00:32:39,120 --> 00:32:42,680
years, but take like 40 years to
tell a cat from a dog, right? 

698
00:32:43,240 --> 00:32:48,160
And and then like even today 
that like the line of what are 

699
00:32:48,160 --> 00:32:51,120
the things AI can do and what 
are the things AI can't do as 

700
00:32:51,120 --> 00:32:53,320
like very difficult to describe,
right? 

701
00:32:53,560 --> 00:32:56,560
And I think one of my theories 
is actually that the task, the 

702
00:32:56,560 --> 00:33:00,400
last tasks that humans will be 
able to do better than AI will 

703
00:33:00,400 --> 00:33:03,960
be precisely the most illegible 
ones, because those are the ones

704
00:33:03,960 --> 00:33:05,280
that are the harvest to train 
for. 

705
00:33:06,000 --> 00:33:08,360
And so, yeah, so actually what 
is your list? 

706
00:33:08,360 --> 00:33:11,040
Because I'll give you my list. 
I mean, it's interesting. 

707
00:33:11,040 --> 00:33:14,200
I remember talking to someone, 
he asked me like what is your 

708
00:33:14,360 --> 00:33:16,880
like benchmark for when you 
would say, yeah, this is AGI And

709
00:33:16,880 --> 00:33:19,880
I said when an AI is able to 
independently start a profitable

710
00:33:19,880 --> 00:33:21,440
company. 
Interesting. 

711
00:33:21,440 --> 00:33:24,280
Yeah. 
So everybody's got, I think I 

712
00:33:24,280 --> 00:33:27,240
would argue we've already 
passed, quote, the threshold of 

713
00:33:27,240 --> 00:33:29,880
AGI in some sense for some 
domains, Like it's better at 

714
00:33:29,880 --> 00:33:31,440
math than many people. 
It's better at, right. 

715
00:33:31,680 --> 00:33:33,720
Yeah, it'll make mistakes, but 
people make sick with math. 

716
00:33:35,400 --> 00:33:37,120
You know, it's funny. 
These two questions, what can't 

717
00:33:37,200 --> 00:33:40,080
AI do and what can't China do, I
think are the most important 

718
00:33:40,080 --> 00:33:42,720
questions for anybody who's 
doing a new startup, right? 

719
00:33:43,000 --> 00:33:46,600
Like, or like you build your 
business to assume AI or China 

720
00:33:46,600 --> 00:33:49,680
will improve towards that. 
And then you'll ride with that 

721
00:33:49,680 --> 00:33:51,920
or at least be invulnerable to 
that rather than the opposite, 

722
00:33:51,920 --> 00:33:55,080
right. 
So the, I mean, the thing that 

723
00:33:55,080 --> 00:33:59,800
I'm seeing is AI right now for 
and maybe for the indefinite 

724
00:33:59,800 --> 00:34:03,000
future, it doesn't do Polish, 
right? 

725
00:34:03,240 --> 00:34:05,600
So it can, it will actually, you
know, the whole thing about AI 

726
00:34:05,600 --> 00:34:07,760
takes a job. 
So here's a reframe, which a 

727
00:34:07,760 --> 00:34:12,880
reframe which is AI lets you do 
any job at an OK level, right? 

728
00:34:13,080 --> 00:34:17,400
You can be an OK artist, you can
be an OK video editor, you can 

729
00:34:17,400 --> 00:34:19,719
be an OK 3D designer or 
whatever. 

730
00:34:19,719 --> 00:34:22,960
You can at least get your vision
out onto paper, right? 

731
00:34:23,320 --> 00:34:26,440
And it's like kind of getting to
like A5 level or something like 

732
00:34:26,440 --> 00:34:28,400
that. 
It might be a cheesy generic 

733
00:34:28,400 --> 00:34:33,480
version, but you can do any job.
So in a sense, AI means a crude 

734
00:34:33,480 --> 00:34:37,480
form, not crude improving form 
of digital autarky, so long as 

735
00:34:37,480 --> 00:34:39,159
you have access to the Internet,
right? 

736
00:34:39,440 --> 00:34:41,880
And China is physical autarky 
because they're the most 

737
00:34:41,880 --> 00:34:43,800
physically independent country 
in the world because they can 

738
00:34:44,040 --> 00:34:45,400
build everything themselves, 
right? 

739
00:34:45,760 --> 00:34:47,600
So that's how I kind of think 
about it. 

740
00:34:47,920 --> 00:34:51,480
But it's not getting really good
at that area because the 

741
00:34:51,480 --> 00:34:54,040
threshold for really good keeps 
moving forward as AI improves. 

742
00:34:54,520 --> 00:34:57,000
And to actually check the 
result, it might generate a math

743
00:34:57,000 --> 00:34:58,400
theorem. 
We actually have to be a 

744
00:34:58,400 --> 00:35:00,680
research mathematician to even 
understand the symbols and check

745
00:35:00,680 --> 00:35:01,680
it. 
Go ahead, give me your thoughts.

746
00:35:02,080 --> 00:35:05,040
The mental model I use is like 
if human level is like 

747
00:35:05,040 --> 00:35:07,520
normalized at like some level 
like this right across a range 

748
00:35:07,520 --> 00:35:10,600
of tasks, then basically AI kind
of looks like this, right? 

749
00:35:10,600 --> 00:35:12,320
It's like better in some 
domains, worse than other 

750
00:35:12,320 --> 00:35:14,040
domains. 
And like this curve just keeps 

751
00:35:14,240 --> 00:35:16,880
shifting to the left and like 
often very wobbly and 

752
00:35:16,880 --> 00:35:20,920
unpredictable ways, right. 
And so it's like it's, it's, I 

753
00:35:20,920 --> 00:35:22,880
think for 50 years, it's been 
super huge. 

754
00:35:22,880 --> 00:35:26,840
Like from OK, from the 
perspective of the economy in 

755
00:35:26,840 --> 00:35:32,400
1800, by the like probably the 
year 2000, we basically had here

756
00:35:32,400 --> 00:35:35,800
like ASI from the perspective of
like probably over 80% of the 

757
00:35:35,800 --> 00:35:37,760
economy, right? 
Like if you think of farming, 

758
00:35:37,760 --> 00:35:40,200
what percent of that was 
automated even by the year 2000,

759
00:35:40,200 --> 00:35:42,720
if you think of manufacturing, 
right? 

760
00:35:43,000 --> 00:35:45,600
And So what I think is happening
in the pattern that will 

761
00:35:45,600 --> 00:35:49,040
continue for a while is 
basically this pattern where 

762
00:35:49,800 --> 00:35:55,640
essentially both economic and 
social value, they continually 

763
00:35:55,640 --> 00:35:58,920
refocus on the subset of tasks 
that AI hasn't just 

764
00:35:58,920 --> 00:36:00,840
hyperinflated to 0, Right, 
right. 

765
00:36:01,080 --> 00:36:06,400
And I mean, at some point we're 
gonna enter a new a regime where

766
00:36:06,400 --> 00:36:09,080
like that set of human dominant 
tasks, like actually shrinks to 

767
00:36:09,080 --> 00:36:10,880
exactly 0, right? 
But we're not there yet. 

768
00:36:11,080 --> 00:36:12,680
The question is what? 
What happens when they 

769
00:36:12,680 --> 00:36:16,440
eventually get to the point 
where they can like think 100 

770
00:36:16,440 --> 00:36:20,440
times faster than you and at the
same time they consume like 0.1 

771
00:36:20,440 --> 00:36:22,640
watts of energy and stuff? 
There's still comparative 

772
00:36:22,640 --> 00:36:25,240
vantage, right? 
I mean, or rather, I guess 

773
00:36:25,240 --> 00:36:28,440
that's a question, does 
comparative vantage between AIS 

774
00:36:28,520 --> 00:36:30,920
and humans exist? 
And you can argue there isn't 

775
00:36:30,920 --> 00:36:33,920
any with dolphins, right? 
Like dolphins are just pets, 

776
00:36:34,160 --> 00:36:35,920
right? 
Dolphins use kind of feed, food.

777
00:36:35,920 --> 00:36:38,000
There's nothing you can really 
delegate to them. 

778
00:36:38,000 --> 00:36:40,280
They just can't figure it out. 
Whatever, you know, like go, go,

779
00:36:40,280 --> 00:36:43,920
go, go have have fun, right? 
So it's possible that it gets to

780
00:36:43,920 --> 00:36:46,720
that level. 
But I think at least until the 

781
00:36:46,720 --> 00:36:50,600
prompting issue is solved, right
now, it really appears to me 

782
00:36:50,600 --> 00:36:53,680
that it's like artificial 
intelligence is just constrained

783
00:36:53,680 --> 00:36:56,440
by human intelligence. 
Like, you know, it's, it's 

784
00:36:56,440 --> 00:36:58,800
basically like the better you 
are prompting, the better the AI

785
00:36:58,800 --> 00:37:00,320
is. 
And and conversely, go ahead, 

786
00:37:00,440 --> 00:37:02,600
even if you spell something 
wrong, it gives you a worse 

787
00:37:02,640 --> 00:37:03,160
answer. 
Right. 

788
00:37:03,480 --> 00:37:05,360
Yeah, yeah, yeah, I, I, I fully 
agree with. 

789
00:37:05,360 --> 00:37:07,600
That's the status quo today, and
probably at least for the next 

790
00:37:07,600 --> 00:37:09,520
couple of years. 
Yeah, OK, fine. 

791
00:37:09,880 --> 00:37:12,120
All right. 
So all right, so let's move to 

792
00:37:12,120 --> 00:37:14,000
maybe talk about one more thing 
and let's go to questions. 

793
00:37:14,000 --> 00:37:16,920
OK, Startup societies, Zuzilu 
and so on and so forth. 

794
00:37:16,920 --> 00:37:20,600
So after the network state book 
came out, you actually, there's 

795
00:37:20,600 --> 00:37:24,280
actually an old diagram I had 
and then you kind of moved one 

796
00:37:24,280 --> 00:37:25,840
more box on that diagram. 
Go ahead. 

797
00:37:25,840 --> 00:37:27,560
Why don't you talk about? 
That, yeah, basically. 

798
00:37:27,560 --> 00:37:30,120
So the box was, I mean, this was
actually originally, yeah, 

799
00:37:30,280 --> 00:37:31,600
right. 
The diagram from your book, 

800
00:37:31,600 --> 00:37:34,160
which is basically how many 
people are there and for how 

801
00:37:34,160 --> 00:37:35,880
long a time do they come 
together, right? 

802
00:37:35,880 --> 00:37:40,640
And so it's like number of 
people, 200,000 million. 

803
00:37:40,640 --> 00:37:43,600
And then amount of time like one
day, one week, a month, a year. 

804
00:37:43,880 --> 00:37:46,160
And then you have like Tinder 
over here and then you have 

805
00:37:46,160 --> 00:37:48,720
eHarmony over here, you have 
universities over here and then 

806
00:37:48,720 --> 00:37:50,840
countries over here. 
So with this a little like the 

807
00:37:50,880 --> 00:37:53,920
idea was that OK, we've had lots
of things that happened where 

808
00:37:53,920 --> 00:37:57,680
people come together for a week,
but there's this like a big 

809
00:37:57,680 --> 00:37:59,560
discontinuous change that 
happens. 

810
00:37:59,560 --> 00:38:03,760
I think when you one, you allow 
the duration of time to get 

811
00:38:03,760 --> 00:38:06,480
longer, like basically the 
psychological shift that 

812
00:38:06,480 --> 00:38:08,720
happened. 
And so that, and I'm sure a lot 

813
00:38:08,720 --> 00:38:12,240
of you can probably relate to it
at this point, is that a week is

814
00:38:12,240 --> 00:38:14,960
a break from your life. 
Two months is your life, right? 

815
00:38:15,200 --> 00:38:17,480
Like, yeah, like if you stay in 
a place for two months, like 

816
00:38:17,480 --> 00:38:21,000
actually fully readjust that 
being the normal, right? 

817
00:38:21,000 --> 00:38:24,000
And it like actually becomes a 
day-to-day rhythm as opposed to 

818
00:38:24,000 --> 00:38:26,720
something like, you know, you've
done a few days and there's a 

819
00:38:26,720 --> 00:38:28,040
few days left and then you're 
gone. 

820
00:38:28,920 --> 00:38:31,440
And then on the other side is 
like scale, right? 

821
00:38:31,440 --> 00:38:35,080
So, you know, like there's what 
you can do with like 10 people, 

822
00:38:35,080 --> 00:38:37,520
which is a hacker house. 
But then there is what, what can

823
00:38:37,520 --> 00:38:40,240
you do when you get to like 
Dunbar's number, which is 150. 

824
00:38:40,240 --> 00:38:43,200
And that's the level at which 
you start to just need to have 

825
00:38:44,160 --> 00:38:46,400
multi level structure in your 
society, right? 

826
00:38:46,720 --> 00:38:49,560
And so like two months at 150 is
like this level where you 

827
00:38:49,560 --> 00:38:52,040
actually start to get a lot of 
the complexities of doing 

828
00:38:52,040 --> 00:38:54,360
something more meaningful at a 
larger scale. 

829
00:38:54,360 --> 00:38:57,800
But at the same time, it's like 
still small enough that it's 

830
00:38:57,800 --> 00:39:00,320
practical to bring together and 
it's manageable, right? 

831
00:39:00,560 --> 00:39:03,640
And so we've seen that I mean, 
Zeus a little was about 200 

832
00:39:03,640 --> 00:39:06,800
people for two months. 
I think it's a good range within

833
00:39:06,800 --> 00:39:10,680
which to experiment. 
And I'll try to figure out what 

834
00:39:10,680 --> 00:39:12,400
are the actual kinds of things 
that we can do. 

835
00:39:12,600 --> 00:39:18,680
And the general way that I see 
this, right is that like, I 

836
00:39:18,680 --> 00:39:23,160
think this is a good scale at 
which you can dog food. 

837
00:39:23,160 --> 00:39:27,200
Things at which you can actually
like start to go from from 

838
00:39:27,440 --> 00:39:31,400
having some new idea about how a
civilization might work better 

839
00:39:31,400 --> 00:39:35,040
to not just like blabbing about 
it on the Internet, which is 

840
00:39:35,400 --> 00:39:38,240
what people did on Internet 
forums back in 2009. 

841
00:39:38,240 --> 00:39:41,120
But like, actually try it out 
And you actually get like real 

842
00:39:41,120 --> 00:39:43,480
world information about where 
the successes and failures are. 

843
00:39:43,880 --> 00:39:45,480
One of the things that such 
things, people in the community 

844
00:39:45,480 --> 00:39:47,160
develop things for the 
community, right? 

845
00:39:47,320 --> 00:39:50,200
Like the community puts their 
beta testers or what have you 

846
00:39:50,200 --> 00:39:53,080
for different types. 
Of things it's a full stack 

847
00:39:53,080 --> 00:39:56,840
incubator right exactly and like
basically I think there's a big 

848
00:39:56,840 --> 00:40:00,440
difference between like being a 
service provider and being a 

849
00:40:00,440 --> 00:40:03,320
community right I think like for
example, this is probably one of

850
00:40:03,320 --> 00:40:06,280
the things that the whole E 
Estonia movement of 10 years ago

851
00:40:06,560 --> 00:40:12,160
got wrong right which is that. 
Like they had very advanced E 

852
00:40:12,160 --> 00:40:13,560
government for their time, 
right? 

853
00:40:13,880 --> 00:40:16,440
You know, you could vote online,
open up bank accounts online, do

854
00:40:16,480 --> 00:40:19,400
like start companies online, all
kinds of things really advanced.

855
00:40:19,400 --> 00:40:23,240
But the difference between a 
product and a community is that 

856
00:40:23,240 --> 00:40:24,840
a product is a hub and spoke 
model. 

857
00:40:24,840 --> 00:40:28,360
It's N people who have a one to 
one relationship with some kind 

858
00:40:28,360 --> 00:40:31,800
of center. 
A community is a model where you

859
00:40:31,800 --> 00:40:34,960
have people that all have 
relationships with each other. 

860
00:40:35,360 --> 00:40:39,440
And I just like in Estonia, I 
think the problem was that or 

861
00:40:39,440 --> 00:40:42,840
for Estonia, there was not 
enough commonality between the 

862
00:40:42,840 --> 00:40:45,760
different people who were 
Estonia residents for them to 

863
00:40:45,960 --> 00:40:48,000
actually really become a 
cohesive community. 

864
00:40:48,000 --> 00:40:48,360
Right. 
Yeah. 

865
00:40:48,440 --> 00:40:50,720
Exactly. 
It's like community is 

866
00:40:50,720 --> 00:40:52,680
connectivity. 
That's actually how like 

867
00:40:52,720 --> 00:40:55,640
literally of N people, you have 
N choose two possible 

868
00:40:55,640 --> 00:40:58,120
relationships or n ^2 if they're
asymmetric. 

869
00:40:58,440 --> 00:41:02,440
And then you divide how many 
relationships actually exist by 

870
00:41:02,440 --> 00:41:04,360
the number of possible 
relationships. 

871
00:41:04,720 --> 00:41:06,840
And they just had a hub and 
spoke thing where everybody was 

872
00:41:06,840 --> 00:41:09,240
connected to Estonia but not to 
each other. 

873
00:41:09,440 --> 00:41:12,320
Right. 
And so I think that like one of 

874
00:41:12,320 --> 00:41:15,760
the unique things that sort of 
community as incubator can do, 

875
00:41:15,760 --> 00:41:17,560
right? 
It's like it actually gives you 

876
00:41:17,680 --> 00:41:21,920
a community as a beta test user.
And there is like a big, the 

877
00:41:21,920 --> 00:41:25,200
difference between having 100 
beta testers and having a 

878
00:41:25,200 --> 00:41:27,360
community of 100 beer beta 
tester, right? 

879
00:41:27,600 --> 00:41:30,640
And the difference basically is,
it's the difference between 100 

880
00:41:30,640 --> 00:41:33,320
people who have no preexisting 
relationship and need to 

881
00:41:33,320 --> 00:41:36,320
interact with each other versus 
people who do have a lot of 

882
00:41:36,320 --> 00:41:40,720
those needs every day. 
And so this is, I think to me 

883
00:41:40,720 --> 00:41:42,560
like a very unique value 
proposition, right? 

884
00:41:42,560 --> 00:41:44,280
That you can actually start a 
thing and then you can 

885
00:41:44,280 --> 00:41:46,520
bootstrap, incubate it in a 
community and then you can 

886
00:41:46,520 --> 00:41:49,000
actually make a huge amount of 
progress together. 

887
00:41:49,200 --> 00:41:51,400
That's right. 
And I think, I do think the 

888
00:41:51,400 --> 00:41:55,440
startup society, this has a 
concept like what you're doing 

889
00:41:55,440 --> 00:41:57,400
on the Zizzle's side, we're 
doing in our school, we're 

890
00:41:57,400 --> 00:41:59,920
helping bootstrap others. 
I think this is the third type 

891
00:41:59,920 --> 00:42:03,800
of thing, like intranet company,
intranet currency, intranet 

892
00:42:03,800 --> 00:42:05,160
community. 
You know, I've said that before,

893
00:42:05,160 --> 00:42:07,720
but I think it's like the third 
type of thing that you can 

894
00:42:07,720 --> 00:42:09,560
start, you know, go ahead. 
Yeah. 

895
00:42:09,800 --> 00:42:12,840
So one other thing that we 
started doing in Zizzle and that

896
00:42:12,840 --> 00:42:18,440
we've and I think also like 
gotten in, we really have been 

897
00:42:18,440 --> 00:42:22,000
in a long time right as biotech.
And I think it's interesting 

898
00:42:22,000 --> 00:42:25,480
that like crypto has had this 
kind of interesting sort of 

899
00:42:25,480 --> 00:42:28,160
sister relationship with 
Frontier biotech from pretty 

900
00:42:28,160 --> 00:42:31,480
much ever since it began, right?
Like definitely far from just 

901
00:42:31,480 --> 00:42:34,360
myself, a lot of early crypto 
people were also a very big into

902
00:42:34,360 --> 00:42:36,360
longevity do. 
You have my thesis on why. 

903
00:42:36,760 --> 00:42:38,600
Go ahead, you know. 
So, well, Hal Finney was an 

904
00:42:38,600 --> 00:42:40,640
extropian, right? 
But I could actually give an 

905
00:42:40,640 --> 00:42:45,480
exact parallel between crypto 
and and longevity, which is what

906
00:42:45,600 --> 00:42:49,120
with with Bitcoin, initially it 
looks like the existing 

907
00:42:49,120 --> 00:42:53,400
financial system, but it in some
ways with bar charts and trading

908
00:42:53,400 --> 00:42:55,880
and stuff, but it rejects 
fundamental premises because the

909
00:42:55,880 --> 00:43:00,040
existing financial system says 
that while hyperinflation is 

910
00:43:00,040 --> 00:43:03,440
bad, deflation is also bad. 
So you should lose a little bit 

911
00:43:03,440 --> 00:43:05,880
of your wealth every year, like 
a little bit of inflation is 

912
00:43:05,880 --> 00:43:06,760
good. 
That's normal. 

913
00:43:07,160 --> 00:43:08,840
And the the medical system is 
similar. 

914
00:43:08,840 --> 00:43:14,600
It says while fast death is bad,
right, like trying to live 

915
00:43:14,600 --> 00:43:17,000
forever, like deflation, the 
equivalent of that increasing 

916
00:43:17,000 --> 00:43:19,560
your lifespan every year, that's
also weird and bad. 

917
00:43:19,880 --> 00:43:22,200
So you should lose a little bit 
of your health every year via 

918
00:43:22,200 --> 00:43:25,240
aging, right? 
So the traditional financial 

919
00:43:25,240 --> 00:43:27,400
system says lose a little bit of
your wealth every year. 

920
00:43:27,520 --> 00:43:30,120
Traditional medical system says 
lose a bit of your health every 

921
00:43:30,120 --> 00:43:33,400
year, right? 
And the entire crypto and 

922
00:43:33,400 --> 00:43:36,200
longevity community says, what 
if we reject that? 

923
00:43:36,480 --> 00:43:39,720
What if we attack it from first 
principles and say like maybe we

924
00:43:39,720 --> 00:43:42,280
don't have to go to 0, maybe we 
can get to Infinity instead? 

925
00:43:42,640 --> 00:43:45,480
The nice thing about longevity, 
right, is that I think it's on 

926
00:43:45,480 --> 00:43:48,000
this like really nice trajectory
toward being much more 

927
00:43:48,000 --> 00:43:51,280
mainstream now, right? 
Like, yeah, Brian Johnson is 

928
00:43:51,280 --> 00:43:54,160
like a mainstream cultural 
figure, like non-technical 

929
00:43:54,160 --> 00:43:57,240
friends of I think many of us 
know who he is, right? 

930
00:43:57,720 --> 00:44:01,960
And, you know, there's been a 
huge amount of progress on that.

931
00:44:02,280 --> 00:44:08,600
And I think 1 space that I think
is like still in an earlier part

932
00:44:08,600 --> 00:44:11,680
of the curve is resistance to 
airborne diseases. 

933
00:44:12,360 --> 00:44:15,440
And I mean, we had a dry run of 
this during COVID, right? 

934
00:44:15,440 --> 00:44:19,720
And like, COVID is worse than 
existing diseases, but it's also

935
00:44:19,720 --> 00:44:21,280
much less bad than it could have
been. 

936
00:44:21,600 --> 00:44:26,640
And like it was in this weird 
mid zone where basically it was 

937
00:44:26,640 --> 00:44:30,240
not bad enough for us to like 
properly take it seriously, but 

938
00:44:30,240 --> 00:44:33,080
at the same time like it 
actually is much worse. 

939
00:44:33,120 --> 00:44:36,360
You know, there's this concept 
on Twitter sometimes of the 

940
00:44:36,360 --> 00:44:38,080
secret third thing. 
Have you heard of that before, 

941
00:44:38,080 --> 00:44:39,840
right? 
And essentially, if you guys 

942
00:44:39,840 --> 00:44:42,960
don't know this meme, it's like,
are you a Democrat or Republican

943
00:44:42,960 --> 00:44:46,200
or or a secret third thing? 
And it presumes that you must be

944
00:44:46,200 --> 00:44:48,960
in one of these two categories. 
And otherwise, you know, it's 

945
00:44:48,960 --> 00:44:51,240
like a fake thing that there's 
any more complexity than just 

946
00:44:51,600 --> 00:44:54,480
zero or one, right? 
But obviously, if you look at 

947
00:44:54,480 --> 00:44:56,360
and I'll get to my point and 
say, if you look at like an 

948
00:44:56,360 --> 00:44:59,440
image, you know, an image has 
more than one pixel of 

949
00:44:59,440 --> 00:45:02,280
information, right? 
And like if you only had zero or

950
00:45:02,280 --> 00:45:03,560
one, you would be able to 
describe an image. 

951
00:45:03,560 --> 00:45:06,800
And some things have necessary 
complexity more than just zero 

952
00:45:06,800 --> 00:45:08,320
or one. 
It can't be reduced profitably 

953
00:45:08,320 --> 00:45:10,520
to that. 
And I think with COVID, for 

954
00:45:10,520 --> 00:45:13,280
example, one way of or crashing 
the operating system of some, 

955
00:45:13,320 --> 00:45:16,560
some people online is they're 
like, on the one hand, it's like

956
00:45:16,560 --> 00:45:20,800
this dangerous virus had escaped
from a Chinese lab and you know,

957
00:45:20,800 --> 00:45:23,120
it's like so bad and so on. 
So for the other hand, it was 

958
00:45:23,120 --> 00:45:25,360
just the flu, bro. 
And it didn't do anything. 

959
00:45:25,360 --> 00:45:27,800
And why are you so mad, right? 
Why do we do anything about it, 

960
00:45:27,800 --> 00:45:29,760
right? 
And a lot of people hold both of

961
00:45:29,760 --> 00:45:31,760
those beliefs at the same time, 
right? 

962
00:45:32,360 --> 00:45:34,400
They're obviously incompatible 
with each other, right? 

963
00:45:34,400 --> 00:45:36,920
Where either it's like this 
fairly serious thing or it was a

964
00:45:36,920 --> 00:45:39,640
completely non issue. 
And I think it was actually 

965
00:45:39,640 --> 00:45:41,480
fairly serious and it did come 
out of a Chinese lab. 

966
00:45:41,560 --> 00:45:42,800
I mean, it's not the word was, 
right? 

967
00:45:42,800 --> 00:45:45,440
It is very serious, like was. 
Slash is exactly that's right, 

968
00:45:45,480 --> 00:45:47,080
and it killed literally millions
of people. 

969
00:45:47,440 --> 00:45:50,040
But, and this is a weird thing. 
See, The thing is in early 2020,

970
00:45:50,200 --> 00:45:53,720
if you had said, OK, just warp 
your way back to January 2020, 

971
00:45:53,720 --> 00:45:58,240
if you said this is going to 
kill 10 million people globally 

972
00:45:58,240 --> 00:46:00,680
and a million Americans, and in 
a few years it's not going to be

973
00:46:00,680 --> 00:46:03,360
that big a deal, OK? 
That's literally how people are 

974
00:46:03,360 --> 00:46:05,760
thinking about it, right? 
That's which is actually kind of

975
00:46:05,840 --> 00:46:08,080
if you had said it's not a big 
deal or it's going to kill 

976
00:46:08,080 --> 00:46:11,200
millions of people, those who 
seem like thesis antithesis. 

977
00:46:11,200 --> 00:46:14,040
And somehow we got a synthesis, 
which is totally crazy, where it

978
00:46:14,040 --> 00:46:15,800
literally killed a million or 
millions of people. 

979
00:46:15,800 --> 00:46:18,160
And it's also considered like, 
dude, you're just exaggerating. 

980
00:46:18,160 --> 00:46:20,120
It's not a big. 
It's kind of like life goes on 

981
00:46:20,120 --> 00:46:21,960
after World War One. 
Well, it does for those who 

982
00:46:21,960 --> 00:46:23,920
didn't die, right? 
But you know, it was actually a 

983
00:46:23,920 --> 00:46:25,200
pretty big deal at the time, 
right? 

984
00:46:25,200 --> 00:46:26,040
Go ahead. 
Right. 

985
00:46:26,080 --> 00:46:29,720
I mean, though I think in one of
the important things they are 

986
00:46:29,720 --> 00:46:32,400
right aside like COVID itself is
still an ongoing thing, right? 

987
00:46:32,400 --> 00:46:35,160
Actually, yeah. 
I mean, I got it quite recently.

988
00:46:35,160 --> 00:46:36,800
Yeah. 
I'm actually, if I if it weren't

989
00:46:36,800 --> 00:46:39,240
for that, this whole thing would
have been happening like a week 

990
00:46:39,240 --> 00:46:43,320
and a half earlier. 
But based, you know, it's still 

991
00:46:43,320 --> 00:46:45,840
happening, it's still bad. 
Like the long term symptoms are 

992
00:46:45,840 --> 00:46:47,880
still pretty bad, right. 
And if you think about just like

993
00:46:47,880 --> 00:46:51,280
how our civilizations media 
apparatus is handling it, like 

994
00:46:51,600 --> 00:46:56,200
from a media perspective, COVID 
basically ended on 2022 February

995
00:46:56,200 --> 00:46:59,160
24th, right? 
Like that just is how our media 

996
00:46:59,160 --> 00:47:04,200
like apparatus works, right? 
Like you can only like handle. 

997
00:47:04,200 --> 00:47:06,080
One big story. 
Think about one big story at a 

998
00:47:06,080 --> 00:47:09,360
time, right? 
And the reality, of course, is. 

999
00:47:09,640 --> 00:47:11,240
The current thing? 
Basically, yeah, exactly. 

1000
00:47:11,240 --> 00:47:14,080
Like there are multiple current 
things, you know, COVID was not 

1001
00:47:14,080 --> 00:47:16,720
cured, there were new variants, 
the efficacy of the vaccines 

1002
00:47:16,720 --> 00:47:21,320
went down to about 1/4 and like 
basically, yeah, the and then 

1003
00:47:21,320 --> 00:47:23,520
the scarier thing is what could 
come come next. 

1004
00:47:23,600 --> 00:47:26,120
We basically have to get ahead 
of all this stuff when we have 

1005
00:47:26,120 --> 00:47:28,800
to massively increase our 
civilizations vital defense. 

1006
00:47:28,800 --> 00:47:31,160
So like I think in the UK there 
was a wastewater surveillance 

1007
00:47:31,160 --> 00:47:34,720
program that's like very good 
and like the the smart 

1008
00:47:34,720 --> 00:47:37,000
technocrats on both sides will 
tell you that it's good. 

1009
00:47:37,000 --> 00:47:41,120
But then like pretty much 
sometime 2021-2022, it was just 

1010
00:47:41,120 --> 00:47:43,800
cancelled and. 
I mean, I think the problem is, 

1011
00:47:44,120 --> 00:47:48,040
unless the next pandemic 
literally photographs like Ebola

1012
00:47:48,040 --> 00:47:50,080
or something like that, God, 
hopefully it doesn't. 

1013
00:47:50,480 --> 00:47:54,040
There's people who will just 
literally deny that they, 

1014
00:47:54,120 --> 00:47:55,920
they've gotten to the point 
they'll just deny the germ 

1015
00:47:55,920 --> 00:47:58,000
theory of disease. 
You know, they just don't even 

1016
00:47:58,000 --> 00:48:01,160
believe that. 
Like, you know, any not, not not

1017
00:48:01,160 --> 00:48:03,240
that a vaccine works. 
They don't believe any vaccines 

1018
00:48:03,240 --> 00:48:04,880
work. 
They don't believe drugs work. 

1019
00:48:04,880 --> 00:48:05,960
They don't believe biotech 
works. 

1020
00:48:05,960 --> 00:48:08,760
They don't believe pharma works.
And you're there's, there's 

1021
00:48:08,760 --> 00:48:10,480
totally throwing the baby out 
with the bathwater. 

1022
00:48:10,480 --> 00:48:12,840
Go ahead. 
Yeah, I mean, well, it's. 

1023
00:48:13,760 --> 00:48:15,200
I've got 2 solutions for that by
the way. 

1024
00:48:15,200 --> 00:48:16,640
Sure, OK. 
What are your solutions? 

1025
00:48:16,640 --> 00:48:18,760
So the two two solutions, and 
this is actually true for 

1026
00:48:18,760 --> 00:48:21,600
everything. 
The two heirs to American empire

1027
00:48:21,600 --> 00:48:24,480
are China and the Internet. 
And so for example, when it 

1028
00:48:24,480 --> 00:48:28,240
comes to biotech, like if you 
look, China actually flipped the

1029
00:48:28,240 --> 00:48:31,480
US and the rest of the world in 
like science papers, nature 

1030
00:48:31,480 --> 00:48:35,040
papers, like highly sited 
biotech, like they have a 

1031
00:48:35,040 --> 00:48:38,160
functioning replacement for 
American academia. 

1032
00:48:38,520 --> 00:48:41,440
And like if you want to know 
whether like they're not as 

1033
00:48:41,440 --> 00:48:43,480
political about or not political
about it at all. 

1034
00:48:43,600 --> 00:48:46,960
So if a treatment works or not, 
like a Chinese clinic, they will

1035
00:48:47,240 --> 00:48:49,520
basically be able to tell you 
about a crazy left or crazy 

1036
00:48:49,520 --> 00:48:51,760
right version of it. 
So that's one possible solution 

1037
00:48:52,080 --> 00:48:53,640
that's for, you know, within 
China. 

1038
00:48:53,840 --> 00:48:56,440
And the other solution is the 
Internet where I think with 

1039
00:48:56,440 --> 00:49:00,840
Desai, right, you can have 
people who are neither, you 

1040
00:49:00,840 --> 00:49:04,120
know, crazy people. 
Like the whole thing about, you 

1041
00:49:04,120 --> 00:49:07,760
know, in mid 2020 where people 
are like public health people in

1042
00:49:07,760 --> 00:49:11,760
the US destroyed the reputations
by saying, you know, racism is a

1043
00:49:11,760 --> 00:49:13,920
real pandemic and you need to go
out and protest and so on and so

1044
00:49:13,920 --> 00:49:16,080
forth in the middle of a 
pandemic and just completely 

1045
00:49:16,080 --> 00:49:18,760
vitiated all their guidance on 
lockdowns or what have you. 

1046
00:49:19,080 --> 00:49:21,520
This made people completely 
distrust all US public health 

1047
00:49:22,160 --> 00:49:24,040
and then, you know, the right 
then saying that vaccines don't 

1048
00:49:24,040 --> 00:49:25,840
even exist. 
So both sides are just 

1049
00:49:25,840 --> 00:49:28,360
completely crazy about biotech. 
They're completely crazy about 

1050
00:49:28,360 --> 00:49:31,680
biology. 
So the answer is either China or

1051
00:49:31,680 --> 00:49:33,560
it's the Internet. 
So you have D side decentralized

1052
00:49:33,560 --> 00:49:36,840
science, diagnostic self 
experimentation, Brian 

1053
00:49:36,840 --> 00:49:39,680
Johnsonian, where you're 
measuring your own body and 

1054
00:49:39,680 --> 00:49:41,120
taking responsibility for your 
own health. 

1055
00:49:41,320 --> 00:49:44,320
You've got the air quality 
metrics, you've got the personal

1056
00:49:44,320 --> 00:49:47,520
sequencing, you've got, you know
all of this, you've got your own

1057
00:49:47,520 --> 00:49:49,840
dashboard and you're working 
with a community of people of 

1058
00:49:49,840 --> 00:49:52,720
like mind to get to scale where 
you can aggregate, create that 

1059
00:49:52,720 --> 00:49:54,200
data. 
You can start calculating. 

1060
00:49:54,200 --> 00:49:56,760
OK, as my numbers, are they out 
of sync? 

1061
00:49:56,760 --> 00:49:58,200
Are they In Sync or what have 
you, right. 

1062
00:49:58,440 --> 00:50:00,880
So those are the two approaches 
I think to like a rebuild 

1063
00:50:01,120 --> 00:50:04,280
biotech and just assume the 
solution is outside America, go 

1064
00:50:04,280 --> 00:50:06,400
ahead and. 
What's interesting to think on 

1065
00:50:06,480 --> 00:50:09,960
like some of this bio stuff is 
how a lot of the solutions are 

1066
00:50:09,960 --> 00:50:13,640
surprisingly low tech, right? 
Like we're like basically, so we

1067
00:50:13,640 --> 00:50:17,840
know this lamp here, this is a 
UV lamp, 222 nanometer light. 

1068
00:50:18,040 --> 00:50:21,080
So if it's under 3, like about 
two like 300 nanometers, that 

1069
00:50:21,080 --> 00:50:23,600
means it's like actually like 
fine for your eyes and so on. 

1070
00:50:23,600 --> 00:50:26,360
So it doesn't like hurt you the 
same way as sunlight ultraviolet

1071
00:50:26,360 --> 00:50:28,200
does. 
And what it does is it kills the

1072
00:50:28,200 --> 00:50:31,360
viruses, right? 
So it just passively like 

1073
00:50:31,360 --> 00:50:34,040
basically significantly reduces 
the chance that people in the 

1074
00:50:34,040 --> 00:50:36,880
room are going to infect each 
other with any airborne 

1075
00:50:36,880 --> 00:50:40,480
pathogen. 
So this is like, this is 1 type 

1076
00:50:40,480 --> 00:50:42,160
of technology. 
Another type of technology is 

1077
00:50:42,160 --> 00:50:44,280
air filtering. 1/3 type of 
technology is just better 

1078
00:50:44,280 --> 00:50:47,280
ventilation. 
Like there's really basic things

1079
00:50:47,280 --> 00:50:51,200
that can be done. 
And like the big bottlenecks are

1080
00:50:51,200 --> 00:50:52,560
like what? 
Like a lot of the time the 

1081
00:50:52,560 --> 00:50:54,680
bottlenecks are just like people
getting off their butts and 

1082
00:50:54,680 --> 00:50:57,920
doing things right. 
And to me, this is also part of 

1083
00:50:57,920 --> 00:51:00,560
the value of some of these like 
startup societies, right? 

1084
00:51:00,560 --> 00:51:03,800
That you can actually take 
things that like really the 

1085
00:51:03,800 --> 00:51:07,400
smart people know are obviously 
correct and then you can just go

1086
00:51:07,400 --> 00:51:10,560
and do them right? 
Because a lot of the time for 

1087
00:51:10,560 --> 00:51:12,720
mainstream adoption of these 
kinds of things, like the 

1088
00:51:12,720 --> 00:51:17,480
bottleneck is not like it's not 
about the technology. 

1089
00:51:17,480 --> 00:51:21,040
The bottleneck is like from a 
politician's point of view, is 

1090
00:51:21,040 --> 00:51:23,920
this something where they have 
to go do something untested or 

1091
00:51:23,920 --> 00:51:26,320
is it a copy paste job? 
So this is very, very, very 

1092
00:51:26,320 --> 00:51:29,640
important because basically 
startup societies are deployment

1093
00:51:29,640 --> 00:51:34,120
points for exactly the obvious 
cool high tech stuff that we can

1094
00:51:34,120 --> 00:51:37,400
now deploy at 100 or 1000 units 
scale. 

1095
00:51:37,760 --> 00:51:42,360
Because it's like it's something
where people have opted in to 

1096
00:51:42,560 --> 00:51:44,000
basically pushing the frontier 
of tech. 

1097
00:51:44,240 --> 00:51:46,360
And they can, of course you can.
You know, not everybody has to 

1098
00:51:46,360 --> 00:51:48,640
opt into a DNA test and 
everybody has to opt into an air

1099
00:51:48,640 --> 00:51:51,000
monitor. 
But the kind of people here are 

1100
00:51:51,000 --> 00:51:53,320
going to be more interested in 
that kind of stuff because it's 

1101
00:51:53,320 --> 00:51:54,800
like the frontier of health, 
frontier of tech. 

1102
00:51:55,120 --> 00:51:56,760
So go ahead. 
Why don't we take some 

1103
00:51:56,760 --> 00:51:58,080
questions? 
Actually go, yeah, your auto 

1104
00:51:58,080 --> 00:51:59,600
slide out if you want to pull it
off. 

1105
00:51:59,600 --> 00:52:02,760
All right, great. 
So why didn't you build Ethereum

1106
00:52:02,760 --> 00:52:04,920
anonymously like Satoshi? 
If you could go back, would you 

1107
00:52:04,920 --> 00:52:07,360
do that? 
I think it would have been too 

1108
00:52:07,360 --> 00:52:08,800
hard. 
Like the problem is that by the 

1109
00:52:08,800 --> 00:52:11,280
time Etherium started I was 
already a Bitcoin magazine 

1110
00:52:11,280 --> 00:52:15,360
author for two years and like 1.
I just like put way too many 

1111
00:52:15,360 --> 00:52:17,200
words on the Internet. 
I would have been findable. 

1112
00:52:17,200 --> 00:52:21,400
And two is I think like 
Ethereum's beginning really did 

1113
00:52:21,600 --> 00:52:24,760
like my ability to get any kind 
of critical mass. 

1114
00:52:24,760 --> 00:52:27,320
I think definitely bootstrapped 
a lot off of people already 

1115
00:52:27,320 --> 00:52:29,160
knowing and trusting me from 
Bitcoin Magazine. 

1116
00:52:29,360 --> 00:52:30,920
Like it would have just been a 
way harder job. 

1117
00:52:31,160 --> 00:52:34,440
A non obvious point is 
pseudonymity is itself a form of

1118
00:52:34,440 --> 00:52:37,200
decentralization. 
And the reason it is, is because

1119
00:52:37,200 --> 00:52:40,280
like your government name is in 
a government database, so it's a

1120
00:52:40,280 --> 00:52:42,200
centralized name. 
It's linked all the information 

1121
00:52:42,200 --> 00:52:43,760
value you punch into a search 
engine. 

1122
00:52:43,960 --> 00:52:47,520
It pulls up everything on John 
Smith, whereas Satoshi Nakamoto 

1123
00:52:47,520 --> 00:52:49,760
is a decentralized aim that's 
outside of that, right? 

1124
00:52:50,080 --> 00:52:52,240
So in a sense, pseudonymity is 
itself a form of 

1125
00:52:52,240 --> 00:52:54,520
decentralization. 
They couldn't hit either the man

1126
00:52:54,840 --> 00:52:56,360
or the ball of the network, 
right? 

1127
00:52:56,680 --> 00:52:59,760
But once Bitcoin was out there, 
it was like a heat shield for 

1128
00:52:59,760 --> 00:53:01,560
you. 
It's like, you know, the NASCAR 

1129
00:53:01,840 --> 00:53:04,680
or Indy 500, Like, you know, you
can kind of kind of like 

1130
00:53:04,680 --> 00:53:07,640
slipstream behind a car, right? 
So you didn't have to use 

1131
00:53:07,640 --> 00:53:10,520
exactly the same tactics. 
Similarly, the network state, 

1132
00:53:10,720 --> 00:53:12,280
personal distribution is 
important. 

1133
00:53:12,480 --> 00:53:15,680
So the way that we're doing 
decentralization is lots of 

1134
00:53:15,680 --> 00:53:17,760
startup societies. 
So it's not just like 

1135
00:53:18,280 --> 00:53:21,480
Vitalikville or Balaji Burg or 
whatever. 

1136
00:53:21,480 --> 00:53:24,120
I want many of you guys to set 
up your own startup societies. 

1137
00:53:24,120 --> 00:53:25,960
We'll fund those. 
There's many different visions 

1138
00:53:25,960 --> 00:53:28,760
of the good, right? 
And, and so that's 

1139
00:53:28,760 --> 00:53:30,920
decentralization of another form
rather than pseudonymity. 

1140
00:53:31,000 --> 00:53:32,600
Go ahead. 
Well, what's interesting to me 

1141
00:53:32,600 --> 00:53:34,880
about like the whole 0 knowledge
proof thing in particular, 

1142
00:53:34,880 --> 00:53:37,760
right, is like it opens up the 
entire design space, right? 

1143
00:53:37,760 --> 00:53:41,000
Like if you remember like 15 
years ago, the whole narrative 

1144
00:53:41,000 --> 00:53:45,600
is like basically the dichotomy 
between sort of trusted 

1145
00:53:45,800 --> 00:53:49,680
institutionally because KYC 
versus on the Internet, nobody 

1146
00:53:49,680 --> 00:53:53,000
knows you're a dog and the 
challenge now, of course. 

1147
00:53:53,240 --> 00:53:56,000
ZK reconciles. 
That the challenge now of course

1148
00:53:56,000 --> 00:53:58,760
is that if you don't prove 
you're you're not a dog, then 

1149
00:53:58,760 --> 00:54:00,640
you're also not proving that 
you're not a bot. 

1150
00:54:00,800 --> 00:54:03,040
And so like, there's no reason 
for people to listen to you, 

1151
00:54:03,200 --> 00:54:06,240
right? 
And so, but, but what the zero 

1152
00:54:06,240 --> 00:54:08,840
knowledge proofs gives you is 
they give you the ability to 

1153
00:54:08,840 --> 00:54:12,600
have privacy, but at the same 
time have have reputation. 

1154
00:54:12,840 --> 00:54:16,560
And so like, and that what that 
also means is like you actually 

1155
00:54:16,560 --> 00:54:22,000
have an incentive to like, say 
and do things that are 

1156
00:54:22,000 --> 00:54:24,240
constructive because they 
increase your reputation. 

1157
00:54:24,240 --> 00:54:28,200
And that's a reputation that you
haven't can use in a future 

1158
00:54:28,200 --> 00:54:31,560
context, despite the fact that 
all of this reputation is being 

1159
00:54:31,760 --> 00:54:34,200
mediated through ZK. 
And so like actually every 

1160
00:54:34,200 --> 00:54:36,360
operation is unlinked from every
other operation. 

1161
00:54:37,640 --> 00:54:40,680
And I think like, you know, 0 
knowledge is definitely 

1162
00:54:40,680 --> 00:54:42,640
underrated. 
And if you're, if you're going 

1163
00:54:42,640 --> 00:54:45,640
to spend, if you're early in 
your career, that's, I don't 

1164
00:54:45,640 --> 00:54:48,120
know, there's some things, I 
think ZK biotech, things like 

1165
00:54:48,120 --> 00:54:50,240
that haven't had had their 
massive breakout moment yet. 

1166
00:54:50,240 --> 00:54:52,400
And ZK is definitely one. 
OK, here's another one. 

1167
00:54:52,680 --> 00:54:58,000
This is you'll like this one. 
OK, What are a list of some 1000

1168
00:54:58,000 --> 00:55:01,920
to 1 or 10,000 to one return 
public goods that we could or 

1169
00:55:01,920 --> 00:55:09,120
should have but don't? 
And I think one of the things is

1170
00:55:09,560 --> 00:55:14,800
just like more kind of like 
standard form packages for 

1171
00:55:14,800 --> 00:55:17,760
things. 
And so if you wants to like 

1172
00:55:17,760 --> 00:55:20,760
start a guest, if you want to 
start a startup society, and 

1173
00:55:20,760 --> 00:55:23,680
then like, here's like open 
source software that you can 

1174
00:55:23,680 --> 00:55:27,720
start with, here's like the the 
12345 guide of what kinds of 

1175
00:55:27,720 --> 00:55:32,360
things you should do if like you
wants to do something like, 

1176
00:55:32,720 --> 00:55:36,000
like, say, yeah. 
You know, like me thought 

1177
00:55:36,000 --> 00:55:37,800
through templates. 
Yeah, exactly. 

1178
00:55:37,800 --> 00:55:40,520
Like thought through templates 
for like pretty much everything 

1179
00:55:41,120 --> 00:55:44,520
is a big one. 
And also, I think on the 

1180
00:55:45,120 --> 00:55:49,720
education side, the biggest 
underprovided thing that I think

1181
00:55:49,760 --> 00:55:53,920
I've identified and even a lot 
of my writing has been about 

1182
00:55:53,920 --> 00:55:57,600
trying to compensate for since 
the beginning is you've probably

1183
00:55:57,600 --> 00:55:58,880
seen a lot of this with math, 
right? 

1184
00:55:58,880 --> 00:56:01,600
Like you have a bunch. 
On the one hand, you have papers

1185
00:56:01,600 --> 00:56:04,280
that are technically accurate, 
but they're just like so 

1186
00:56:04,280 --> 00:56:07,320
insanely complex and everything 
and like freaking Greek and like

1187
00:56:07,520 --> 00:56:10,000
nobody can understand it except 
for people that have had in 

1188
00:56:10,000 --> 00:56:12,080
person conversations with the 
original authors. 

1189
00:56:12,280 --> 00:56:15,880
And then on the other side, you 
have like pop sign mat, like 

1190
00:56:15,880 --> 00:56:19,480
stuff that just doesn't even try
to be accurate, right? 

1191
00:56:19,480 --> 00:56:22,720
And they tell you things about 
how, oh, Schrodinger's cat means

1192
00:56:22,720 --> 00:56:25,200
that like the cat can be dead 
and alive at the same time. 

1193
00:56:25,400 --> 00:56:28,120
And like, you know, absolute, 
like that sentence gives you 

1194
00:56:28,120 --> 00:56:30,800
absolutely no intuition 
whatsoever about like, what is 

1195
00:56:30,800 --> 00:56:33,080
the point of, of, of quantum, 
right? 

1196
00:56:33,080 --> 00:56:35,600
But like it makes you feel smart
because you know the password, 

1197
00:56:35,640 --> 00:56:38,000
right? 
And so, you know, there's like 

1198
00:56:38,160 --> 00:56:40,520
an entire space that's like in 
the middle there that like 

1199
00:56:40,520 --> 00:56:43,320
actually tries to like give you 
the intuition and like helps you

1200
00:56:43,320 --> 00:56:46,440
understand things, right. 
But then, well, but in a way, 

1201
00:56:46,440 --> 00:56:48,360
it's like actually 
understandable to people. 

1202
00:56:48,640 --> 00:56:52,200
And in general, like if you're 
creating educational resources, 

1203
00:56:52,200 --> 00:56:56,800
like to me that's like a huge 
unclaimed operable like space of

1204
00:56:56,840 --> 00:57:00,360
opportunities to provide value 
like, and that repeats itself 

1205
00:57:00,360 --> 00:57:01,960
for pretty much everything 
that's emerging. 

1206
00:57:02,040 --> 00:57:03,360
Yeah. 
And I think we want to do a lot 

1207
00:57:03,360 --> 00:57:07,680
of that in network shape. 
So here's a good one and maybe 

1208
00:57:07,680 --> 00:57:09,880
you can give an answer and maybe
this may be something we 

1209
00:57:09,880 --> 00:57:13,760
disagree on maybe or not. 
Approximately 99% of stable coin

1210
00:57:13,760 --> 00:57:17,520
market cap is backed by dollars.
This reinforces USD seven of ten

1211
00:57:17,520 --> 00:57:21,040
large BTC owners or US entities.
How does the US not win if 

1212
00:57:21,040 --> 00:57:22,760
crypto wins? 
So you can give an answer and 

1213
00:57:22,760 --> 00:57:24,560
I'll give mine. 
I mean, first of all, right, 

1214
00:57:24,560 --> 00:57:27,880
it's like all of these things 
are chaotic systems that just 

1215
00:57:27,880 --> 00:57:30,400
have a huge number of all kinds 
of different variables going in 

1216
00:57:30,400 --> 00:57:32,840
all kinds of different 
directions, right? 

1217
00:57:32,840 --> 00:57:36,200
Like five years ago, China was 
the winner of mining and then, 

1218
00:57:36,640 --> 00:57:39,800
you know, the governments 
itself, like just finally bans 

1219
00:57:39,800 --> 00:57:42,400
mining hard enough that I think 
actually China still does 10 

1220
00:57:42,400 --> 00:57:45,880
about 10% of bitcoins hash 
power, but it's like basically 

1221
00:57:45,880 --> 00:57:47,560
knocked out over the number one 
position. 

1222
00:57:48,080 --> 00:57:50,320
And so all kinds of things could
happen, right? 

1223
00:57:50,320 --> 00:57:54,640
And so you know, the and there's
even all kinds of things that 

1224
00:57:54,640 --> 00:57:57,440
the US could do with respects to
crypto, right? 

1225
00:57:57,440 --> 00:58:01,560
And then obviously then you 
know, the, there's all kinds of 

1226
00:58:01,560 --> 00:58:04,080
things that even like the 
individual crypto holders in the

1227
00:58:04,480 --> 00:58:06,160
US could end up doing, right? 
So that's one. 

1228
00:58:06,160 --> 00:58:08,960
And then two, like 
macroeconomics can just go in 

1229
00:58:08,960 --> 00:58:10,600
all kinds of different 
directions, right? 

1230
00:58:10,600 --> 00:58:15,680
Like we're basically breaking an
80 like an 80 year era of 

1231
00:58:15,680 --> 00:58:18,160
stability and about like 3 
different ways at the same same 

1232
00:58:18,160 --> 00:58:21,800
time and the. 
What do you look at as those 

1233
00:58:21,800 --> 00:58:23,800
three different ways? 
There's the name, the tech of 

1234
00:58:23,800 --> 00:58:25,320
AI, and so on. 
Yeah. 

1235
00:58:25,320 --> 00:58:28,320
I mean, I think like basically 
like domestic politics, 

1236
00:58:28,320 --> 00:58:33,960
international politics and AI. 
And I mean, even AI itself, like

1237
00:58:33,960 --> 00:58:36,680
you can expand that or like 
basically like thinking in terms

1238
00:58:36,680 --> 00:58:39,840
of like technology exiting the 
great stagnation in general, 

1239
00:58:39,840 --> 00:58:41,800
right? 
So, you know, I think we've been

1240
00:58:41,800 --> 00:58:43,920
seeing bio exiting the great 
stagnation. 

1241
00:58:43,920 --> 00:58:45,640
We've been seeing virtual 
reality exit the great 

1242
00:58:45,640 --> 00:58:47,400
stagnation. 
Like a lot of these things also 

1243
00:58:47,400 --> 00:58:48,960
really feed into each other, 
right? 

1244
00:58:49,320 --> 00:58:55,160
So basically from like there's 
just a lot of the Internet is 

1245
00:58:55,160 --> 00:58:56,880
also a big one. 
Like the Internet has just 

1246
00:58:56,880 --> 00:59:00,960
changed a lot of variables in 
terms of what kinds of things in

1247
00:59:00,960 --> 00:59:03,360
our world have an economic 
premium and what kinds of things

1248
00:59:03,360 --> 00:59:07,960
don't. 
And so the like, what dominates 

1249
00:59:07,960 --> 00:59:11,400
can just change massively over 
the next five years in 

1250
00:59:11,400 --> 00:59:13,760
directions that pretty much 
nobody has been predicting is, I

1251
00:59:13,760 --> 00:59:16,560
think one part of my answer and 
the other part of my answer is 

1252
00:59:16,560 --> 00:59:20,880
like, once you're on crypto 
rails, your ability to go from 

1253
00:59:20,880 --> 00:59:23,240
one thing to another thing just 
becomes 100 times easier. 

1254
00:59:23,240 --> 00:59:25,240
Great. 
So that that leads directly to 

1255
00:59:25,240 --> 00:59:28,240
my answer to this question. 
So actually I, I, I should do a 

1256
00:59:28,240 --> 00:59:32,600
I'm going to start doing video 
tweets, OK, Meaning like 59 

1257
00:59:32,600 --> 00:59:34,480
seconds, 29 second vertical 
videos. 

1258
00:59:35,280 --> 00:59:37,080
So one of them will be on the D 
Phi matrix. 

1259
00:59:37,200 --> 00:59:43,280
OK, so D Phi matrix is if you 
imagine the table of every asset

1260
00:59:43,280 --> 00:59:46,200
across every asset, right? 
So you have Fiat currencies, you

1261
00:59:46,200 --> 00:59:50,320
have cryptocurrencies, you have 
NFTS, you have domain names, ENS

1262
00:59:50,440 --> 00:59:51,640
domain names and so on and so 
forth. 

1263
00:59:52,040 --> 00:59:56,080
All of them now due to Uniswap 
and due to all of these on chain

1264
00:59:56,080 --> 00:59:59,960
market makers and exchanges have
a price like you can get out of 

1265
00:59:59,960 --> 01:00:02,880
this asset into that asset and 
you can do it right now and you 

1266
01:00:02,880 --> 01:00:05,080
can do it for the whole thing. 
You can market sell, I mean. 

1267
01:00:05,320 --> 01:00:06,560
Do that, but you can do that, 
right? 

1268
01:00:07,120 --> 01:00:11,920
An so the moment that you loaded
the dollar on chain, you made it

1269
01:00:12,040 --> 01:00:16,320
swappable in a million different
venues at any time of day and 

1270
01:00:16,320 --> 01:00:19,160
night by anybody in any country 
at some price, right? 

1271
01:00:19,440 --> 01:00:21,720
It's like putting something onto
an ice skating rink and it can 

1272
01:00:21,720 --> 01:00:24,920
move in any direction with very 
little friction very, very, 

1273
01:00:24,920 --> 01:00:27,920
very, very quickly at the speed 
of crypto, which is like that, 

1274
01:00:27,920 --> 01:00:31,200
the speed of the Internet. 
It's not banking hours, which 

1275
01:00:31,200 --> 01:00:34,400
are 9 to 5. 
It's not capital controls. 

1276
01:00:34,640 --> 01:00:38,400
It's not within the control of 
the US banking system in the 

1277
01:00:38,400 --> 01:00:40,320
same way. 
It's at the speed of the 

1278
01:00:40,320 --> 01:00:43,720
Internet, right? 
So that alone is a huge change, 

1279
01:00:43,920 --> 01:00:46,040
which is the, you know, 
sometimes something is 

1280
01:00:46,040 --> 01:00:49,040
forklifted into a new domain and
it the forklift itself, 

1281
01:00:49,040 --> 01:00:51,880
everybody's focusing on it for a
while, but it's now in a new 

1282
01:00:51,880 --> 01:00:53,520
domain and the physics are 
totally different. 

1283
01:00:53,520 --> 01:00:54,600
The Internet is totally 
different. 

1284
01:00:54,640 --> 01:00:57,320
So the D Phi matrix, because it 
means you can swap in and out of

1285
01:00:57,320 --> 01:01:00,200
something that actually means 
what's another term for people 

1286
01:01:00,200 --> 01:01:02,880
use for cash? 
They call it liquidity, right? 

1287
01:01:02,880 --> 01:01:06,360
Getting liquid an IPL, right? 
That's like how a tech bro says 

1288
01:01:06,440 --> 01:01:07,720
like, you know, I'm making 
money. 

1289
01:01:07,720 --> 01:01:13,400
OK, So the like liquidity can 
now actually happen without 

1290
01:01:13,400 --> 01:01:17,000
actual cash because you have an 
asset that you can just swap in 

1291
01:01:17,000 --> 01:01:19,240
to whatever asset you want with 
a click. 

1292
01:01:19,240 --> 01:01:21,800
There'll be some price for that,
but you can keep it all in 

1293
01:01:21,800 --> 01:01:23,160
Bitcoin, you can keep it in 
something else. 

1294
01:01:23,160 --> 01:01:25,720
So that's number one is that 
means, by the way, here's the 

1295
01:01:25,720 --> 01:01:28,120
very important thing. 
You know, it was similar to the 

1296
01:01:28,120 --> 01:01:30,880
D5 matrix. 
An analogy is in the early 

1297
01:01:30,880 --> 01:01:34,040
2000s, OK, there were all these 
newspapers, OK, And they 

1298
01:01:34,040 --> 01:01:36,280
forklifted themselves online. 
And there was just like the 

1299
01:01:36,280 --> 01:01:39,280
online version of the New York 
Times and the, and the, you 

1300
01:01:39,280 --> 01:01:42,280
know, Miami Herald and San 
Francisco Chronicle, they just 

1301
01:01:42,280 --> 01:01:43,880
forklift themselves. 
They're like, OK, I'm online. 

1302
01:01:43,880 --> 01:01:45,480
What's the big deal? 
I'm online, I'm offline. 

1303
01:01:45,880 --> 01:01:49,640
But once they were all online, 
Google News could make a table 

1304
01:01:49,640 --> 01:01:51,880
of all of them. 
And suddenly when you loaded 

1305
01:01:51,880 --> 01:01:54,480
Google News, you saw they were 
all reprinting the same story, 

1306
01:01:54,600 --> 01:01:56,840
the same Reuters clip. 
And they didn't have unique 

1307
01:01:56,840 --> 01:01:58,280
stories. 
There was like 73 outlets 

1308
01:01:58,280 --> 01:01:59,440
reprinting the same Reuters 
clip. 

1309
01:01:59,800 --> 01:02:02,360
And suddenly everybody realized,
oh, wait a second, these guys 

1310
01:02:02,360 --> 01:02:05,400
just have a thin layer of like 
local news on top of basically, 

1311
01:02:05,400 --> 01:02:09,880
like wire services. 
And so that began essentially 

1312
01:02:09,880 --> 01:02:13,240
the commoditization of local 
news and local news basically 

1313
01:02:13,240 --> 01:02:15,800
died, right, Because you could 
just get your news on the 

1314
01:02:15,800 --> 01:02:17,960
Internet. 
The forklifting revealed that 

1315
01:02:17,960 --> 01:02:21,000
these were commodities and their
previous modes that they didn't 

1316
01:02:21,000 --> 01:02:23,720
even realize were modes were the
geography because they had 

1317
01:02:23,720 --> 01:02:26,840
trucks that delivered the 
newspapers, they had ink. 

1318
01:02:26,960 --> 01:02:29,680
That whole saying of never argue
with a man who buys ink by the 

1319
01:02:29,680 --> 01:02:32,200
barrel. 
It's actually now you know, you 

1320
01:02:32,200 --> 01:02:34,680
can always defeat a man who 
still buys ink by the barrel. 

1321
01:02:34,680 --> 01:02:36,080
They can. 
They can't argue with you, 

1322
01:02:36,080 --> 01:02:37,120
right? 
You don't have to buy ink by the

1323
01:02:37,120 --> 01:02:40,680
barrel, right? 
So the point being that what 

1324
01:02:40,680 --> 01:02:43,360
they didn't realize is that by 
forklifting it online, they'd 

1325
01:02:43,360 --> 01:02:45,280
lost their Moat. 
And then they were put into 

1326
01:02:45,280 --> 01:02:47,360
total global competition with 
everybody else. 

1327
01:02:47,640 --> 01:02:50,080
And then all the local 
newspapers died and only the 

1328
01:02:50,080 --> 01:02:52,760
strong survived. 
And the craziest, you know, most

1329
01:02:52,760 --> 01:02:55,200
international news or whatever, 
you know, dominated. 

1330
01:02:55,640 --> 01:02:57,400
That is what's going to happen 
to every Fiat currency. 

1331
01:02:58,840 --> 01:03:02,560
Every Fiat currency is now in a 
war for its survival comparable 

1332
01:03:02,560 --> 01:03:05,760
to local news because their only
advantage was their geography. 

1333
01:03:05,880 --> 01:03:08,240
They're basically all doing the 
same thing as everything else, 

1334
01:03:08,280 --> 01:03:10,320
right? 
It's only the geography that 

1335
01:03:10,320 --> 01:03:12,120
provides any advantage for a 
Fiat currency. 

1336
01:03:12,440 --> 01:03:14,760
So what that means is they're 
now going to have to, if you 

1337
01:03:14,760 --> 01:03:17,240
think that would happen with 
local news or the news, it, it 

1338
01:03:17,240 --> 01:03:20,000
couldn't compete on geography. 
Instead it competed on ideology.

1339
01:03:20,240 --> 01:03:22,720
You have all of these online 
different niches and verticals 

1340
01:03:22,720 --> 01:03:25,320
that are global, but competing 
on ideology as opposed to 

1341
01:03:25,320 --> 01:03:27,720
location, right? 
OK, So that's what's going to 

1342
01:03:27,720 --> 01:03:29,760
happen with assets already 
happening. 

1343
01:03:29,920 --> 01:03:32,520
They're going from competing on 
geography, like, you know, this 

1344
01:03:32,520 --> 01:03:36,360
Fiat and that Fiat, to competing
on ideology and on features 

1345
01:03:36,560 --> 01:03:39,480
which are like, you know, 0 
knowledge or like smart 

1346
01:03:39,480 --> 01:03:41,880
contracts or like on 
printability of Bitcoin. 

1347
01:03:41,880 --> 01:03:44,360
That's already happening and 
you're having tribes form around

1348
01:03:44,360 --> 01:03:46,360
them. 
What hasn't happened is for many

1349
01:03:46,360 --> 01:03:48,280
fiats to die. 
Many fiats are going to die. 

1350
01:03:48,280 --> 01:03:50,880
This is my view, right? 
When many fiats die, lots of 

1351
01:03:50,880 --> 01:03:53,840
things break because it's a tool
for social control and so on. 

1352
01:03:54,320 --> 01:03:58,200
And Bitcoin will moon more than 
you can imagine it can moon and 

1353
01:03:58,200 --> 01:03:59,520
so be in a safe country at that 
time. 

1354
01:04:00,480 --> 01:04:03,720
And so then the to the other 
point is like, how does the so 

1355
01:04:03,720 --> 01:04:06,760
that's how like basically with 
the stablecoin market cap. 

1356
01:04:07,520 --> 01:04:09,680
And then so it doesn't reinforce
USD exactly. 

1357
01:04:09,680 --> 01:04:12,000
It just makes it very liquid and
it can swap into anything else 

1358
01:04:12,440 --> 01:04:15,000
and you can easily have some 
other asset that you swap into. 

1359
01:04:15,000 --> 01:04:18,880
And then in terms of seven of 
the 10 largest holders are, are 

1360
01:04:18,880 --> 01:04:21,560
American. 
Well, the, the issue is that the

1361
01:04:21,600 --> 01:04:23,760
US is not, it's not the United 
States, it's a dis United 

1362
01:04:23,760 --> 01:04:26,480
States. 
And so everybody's just taking a

1363
01:04:26,480 --> 01:04:28,080
chair and using it against the 
next guy. 

1364
01:04:28,080 --> 01:04:29,920
And the red team says the blue 
team did it, which they did. 

1365
01:04:29,920 --> 01:04:31,880
And the blue team says the red 
guys just did it. 

1366
01:04:31,880 --> 01:04:33,920
So which they did. 
So even Delaware is being 

1367
01:04:33,920 --> 01:04:36,000
destroyed, right? 
It's like a civil war where 

1368
01:04:36,000 --> 01:04:38,400
every institution in the US is 
getting wrecked, right? 

1369
01:04:38,720 --> 01:04:41,120
And then the Internet survives 
because the Internet is what 

1370
01:04:41,120 --> 01:04:42,720
stays up, even the time of 
nuclear war. 

1371
01:04:42,920 --> 01:04:44,720
So the only reboot is from the 
Internet. 

1372
01:04:44,920 --> 01:04:47,480
That's not the US winning. 
That is the Internet surviving 

1373
01:04:47,480 --> 01:04:50,480
after all these institutions get
melted down, which is a very 

1374
01:04:50,480 --> 01:04:52,480
different thing. 
And fundamentally, I think the 

1375
01:04:52,480 --> 01:04:54,920
fundamental optical illusion 
that you want to wrestle with 

1376
01:04:54,920 --> 01:04:57,600
this is the Internet American, 
right? 

1377
01:04:57,760 --> 01:04:59,400
It's like saying, is America 
British? 

1378
01:04:59,760 --> 01:05:01,280
On the one hand, of course, 
America is British. 

1379
01:05:01,440 --> 01:05:04,800
It was born out of Britain, 
speaks English like, you know, 

1380
01:05:04,960 --> 01:05:08,560
the early columnist, the names 
of towns, George Washington, all

1381
01:05:08,560 --> 01:05:10,560
that kind of stuff. 
On the other hand, it's clearly 

1382
01:05:10,560 --> 01:05:12,280
something that's become much 
more than Britain. 

1383
01:05:12,520 --> 01:05:14,760
It's exceeded even it's worthy 
progenitor. 

1384
01:05:15,080 --> 01:05:18,000
OK, so I want to do a few more 
and then maybe two more than 

1385
01:05:18,000 --> 01:05:18,520
we'll wrap. 
Right. 

1386
01:05:18,600 --> 01:05:20,200
OK. 
So, all right, this is a good 

1387
01:05:20,200 --> 01:05:23,200
one. 
How can we, how can we mega, how

1388
01:05:23,200 --> 01:05:24,840
can we make Ethereum great 
again? 

1389
01:05:25,040 --> 01:05:27,600
All right, if you or if you 
maybe have a different slogan, 

1390
01:05:29,800 --> 01:05:34,800
so massive tariffs on all 
uniswap trades out, you know of 

1391
01:05:34,800 --> 01:05:35,840
Ethereum, right? 
OK, fine. 

1392
01:05:35,840 --> 01:05:38,360
No, how can we make Ethereum 
great again? 

1393
01:05:38,360 --> 01:05:40,520
What should Ethereum's North 
Star Gold be? 

1394
01:05:40,600 --> 01:05:43,040
Number of Dow's price total 
holders, etcetera. 

1395
01:05:44,880 --> 01:05:47,040
Yeah. 
I mean, I think Ethereum in 

1396
01:05:47,040 --> 01:05:51,720
general like it needs to have 
like twin, like the twin goals 

1397
01:05:51,720 --> 01:05:58,120
basically are like 1 is like 
getting used and and getting 

1398
01:05:58,120 --> 01:06:01,000
used at a large scale. 
And the other is, of course, you

1399
01:06:01,360 --> 01:06:04,800
know, continuing to sort of be 
something that's worth being 

1400
01:06:04,800 --> 01:06:07,400
used in the sense of, you know, 
being something that's 

1401
01:06:07,640 --> 01:06:10,280
meaningfully like much more 
secure and much more 

1402
01:06:10,280 --> 01:06:14,440
decentralized and so on than the
kind of the kinds of systems 

1403
01:06:14,440 --> 01:06:15,960
that people would be using 
otherwise. 

1404
01:06:16,240 --> 01:06:19,360
And obviously, I think if we 
sacrifice on either of those 

1405
01:06:19,360 --> 01:06:20,520
things, there is no points, 
right? 

1406
01:06:20,680 --> 01:06:25,040
Because if Ethereum can't scale 
and it can't provide enough 

1407
01:06:25,760 --> 01:06:28,520
security and it can't provide 
enough experience, then like 

1408
01:06:28,720 --> 01:06:30,920
whatever properties it happens, 
they don't reach anyone. 

1409
01:06:30,920 --> 01:06:37,920
On the other hand, if Ethereum 
gets scaling and UX at the cost 

1410
01:06:37,960 --> 01:06:41,920
of like basically becoming a 
copy of Treadfi, then like there

1411
01:06:41,920 --> 01:06:45,600
is like, there's also either no 
points or at least like much 

1412
01:06:45,600 --> 01:06:47,120
less of a point than there could
have been, right? 

1413
01:06:47,120 --> 01:06:49,400
And so the question is, how do 
we? 

1414
01:06:49,520 --> 01:06:53,680
Argue that point. 
OK, my argument is sometimes you

1415
01:06:53,680 --> 01:06:56,480
can have something that's 
cyclical in the XY plane, but 

1416
01:06:56,480 --> 01:06:59,960
the progress is on the Z axis. 
So even if you rebuild, like for

1417
01:06:59,960 --> 01:07:02,800
example, there was Microsoft and
there was Google and then there 

1418
01:07:02,800 --> 01:07:05,680
was Facebook and there's like, 
even though they're like new 

1419
01:07:05,680 --> 01:07:07,480
guys, same as old guy, they're 
not exactly the same. 

1420
01:07:07,480 --> 01:07:08,720
There's actually progress 
technically. 

1421
01:07:08,720 --> 01:07:12,480
Like React is better than 
Angular for example, right? 

1422
01:07:12,480 --> 01:07:13,200
Go ahead. 
Yeah, Yeah. 

1423
01:07:13,240 --> 01:07:17,280
OK, that is fair. 
But I mean, I think there is a 

1424
01:07:17,280 --> 01:07:21,520
strong technical road map that 
gets us both of those things, 

1425
01:07:21,520 --> 01:07:24,760
right. 
And the technical road map is, I

1426
01:07:24,760 --> 01:07:29,560
mean, basically there's a bunch 
of strategies to scale both L1 

1427
01:07:29,560 --> 01:07:32,960
and L2 execution, right. 
And I mean, we've talked like 

1428
01:07:32,960 --> 01:07:38,160
there's stuff like delayed 
block, block execution, block 

1429
01:07:38,160 --> 01:07:41,320
level access lists, distributed 
history storage, like stuff that

1430
01:07:41,320 --> 01:07:43,720
I think there was like a pretty 
good bank list podcast with 

1431
01:07:43,720 --> 01:07:47,200
Ethereum researchers about some 
of these kinds of things about a

1432
01:07:47,200 --> 01:07:50,200
week ago. 
And so on the old one side. 

1433
01:07:50,200 --> 01:07:53,200
And then on the old two side, of
course, increasing the number of

1434
01:07:53,200 --> 01:07:55,520
blobs and using PR dots to be 
able to handle that. 

1435
01:07:55,520 --> 01:08:00,240
And then finally a using ZK 
snarks and I guess realistically

1436
01:08:00,240 --> 01:08:02,800
Starks inside of the old one for
scaling. 

1437
01:08:02,800 --> 01:08:05,840
So just like actually applying 
all of that, all of that 

1438
01:08:05,840 --> 01:08:11,440
technology, and I think there 
are things that we have to kind 

1439
01:08:11,440 --> 01:08:15,840
of rethink on a fundamental 
level and be to update some of 

1440
01:08:15,840 --> 01:08:18,600
the ideals from some of the 
early Satoshi era, right? 

1441
01:08:18,600 --> 01:08:22,040
So like, probably the biggest 
thing is that like the thing 

1442
01:08:22,040 --> 01:08:25,600
that Satoshi did not understand 
that well is the asymmetry 

1443
01:08:25,600 --> 01:08:27,399
between creating and 
verification. 

1444
01:08:27,600 --> 01:08:30,160
And it's ironic because in proof
of work, like you actually 

1445
01:08:30,160 --> 01:08:33,319
totally did, right? 
But if you think about every 

1446
01:08:33,319 --> 01:08:36,560
other aspect of Bitcoin, right, 
a block takes as much 

1447
01:08:36,560 --> 01:08:40,479
computation to like create, not 
the proof of work part, but like

1448
01:08:40,479 --> 01:08:43,479
the part of choosing the 
contents and what right as it 

1449
01:08:43,479 --> 01:08:45,520
does for someone else to verify,
right? 

1450
01:08:46,040 --> 01:08:49,399
Like the cost that it takes, the
amount of computation bandwidth 

1451
01:08:49,760 --> 01:08:54,040
that it takes to run a verifier 
is exactly the same as what it 

1452
01:08:54,040 --> 01:08:56,600
takes to actually choose the 
contents of the block in the 1st

1453
01:08:56,600 --> 01:09:00,439
place, right? 
And that was an inherent 

1454
01:09:00,640 --> 01:09:05,560
limitation of the pre Zeke Snark
era, the pre Stateless client 

1455
01:09:05,560 --> 01:09:10,040
era, the pre, you know, like 
access list era, like basically 

1456
01:09:10,040 --> 01:09:13,160
the era before all of these 
different scaling concepts have 

1457
01:09:13,160 --> 01:09:15,000
come up. 
And there's the way that all of 

1458
01:09:15,000 --> 01:09:17,520
these scaling concepts work is 
they basically say, well, they 

1459
01:09:17,520 --> 01:09:22,200
put more load on one node and 
they ask the one node to do more

1460
01:09:22,200 --> 01:09:26,560
work in order to create hints 
that then make it the work of 

1461
01:09:26,560 --> 01:09:29,040
verifying much, much easier for 
everyone else, right. 

1462
01:09:29,520 --> 01:09:33,680
And so the like taking advantage
of that asymmetry, right? 

1463
01:09:33,680 --> 01:09:35,560
That is what sales clients are 
about. 

1464
01:09:35,560 --> 01:09:37,760
It's what Zika Starks are about.
It's what data availability 

1465
01:09:37,760 --> 01:09:40,319
sample is about. 
Like basically all of the fancy 

1466
01:09:40,319 --> 01:09:43,279
buzzword technologies are 
ultimately some version of this,

1467
01:09:43,279 --> 01:09:45,760
right? 
And the challenge is like early 

1468
01:09:45,760 --> 01:09:49,399
Bitcoin mentality really valued 
this concept of like running a 

1469
01:09:49,399 --> 01:09:52,840
node at home, right? 
And the challenge of like, the 

1470
01:09:52,840 --> 01:09:55,720
good aspect of this is like, 
what you want is you want a 

1471
01:09:55,720 --> 01:09:59,960
system where the rules of the 
system are rules where like the,

1472
01:10:00,600 --> 01:10:03,800
if those rules start getting 
broken, the, the blocks that 

1473
01:10:03,800 --> 01:10:06,240
break the rules just 
automatically get rejected by 

1474
01:10:06,240 --> 01:10:09,120
everyone immediately, right? 
Like Swift does not give you 

1475
01:10:09,120 --> 01:10:10,880
that property, right? 
Credit cards do not give you 

1476
01:10:10,880 --> 01:10:14,560
that property. 
Like if I get like have AUS 

1477
01:10:14,560 --> 01:10:18,000
dollar balance, I have no way to
verify that these resolvers 

1478
01:10:18,000 --> 01:10:20,360
created with an algorithm 
that'll base any particular 

1479
01:10:20,360 --> 01:10:22,400
limit on how many dollars are in
existence, right? 

1480
01:10:22,880 --> 01:10:26,200
And so you, what you do not want
is you do not want a system 

1481
01:10:26,200 --> 01:10:28,560
where like 5 people can get 
together, they can change the 

1482
01:10:28,560 --> 01:10:30,760
rules and then everyone else 
accepts them by defaults, right?

1483
01:10:31,000 --> 01:10:33,440
You want to we're changing the 
rules is actually hard, right? 

1484
01:10:33,440 --> 01:10:36,880
This is like constitutionalism, 
but like a level above that 

1485
01:10:36,880 --> 01:10:40,320
because we're like basically 
going into smart contracts and 

1486
01:10:40,320 --> 01:10:41,720
doing it at the level of tech, 
right? 

1487
01:10:41,720 --> 01:10:45,960
And so to do that, basically the
Bitcoin way was to say, well, 

1488
01:10:45,960 --> 01:10:49,280
you'll have everyone reexecuting
everything at home, right? 

1489
01:10:49,520 --> 01:10:51,960
But with snarks basically have 
to say symmetry. 

1490
01:10:51,960 --> 01:10:55,840
You have the difference between 
nodes that are responsible for 

1491
01:10:55,840 --> 01:10:57,920
building the chain and nodes 
that are responsible for 

1492
01:10:57,920 --> 01:10:59,640
verifying the chain. 
And then you have a whole 

1493
01:10:59,640 --> 01:11:02,280
spectrum in the middle, right? 
And the question is, well, 

1494
01:11:02,880 --> 01:11:07,440
actually, if you allow the cost 
of building parts of the chain 

1495
01:11:07,640 --> 01:11:11,240
to be a little bit higher, then 
you can massively increase the 

1496
01:11:11,240 --> 01:11:14,920
scale and you can increase the 
scale. 

1497
01:11:16,080 --> 01:11:19,600
Is it basically you can increase
the number of users who actually

1498
01:11:19,600 --> 01:11:22,400
get to benefit from your chain's
guarantees directly, right? 

1499
01:11:22,600 --> 01:11:25,360
Like this is one of those things
that like mistakes that El 

1500
01:11:25,360 --> 01:11:27,680
Salvador made, right? 
It's like the Lightning Network 

1501
01:11:27,680 --> 01:11:30,160
implementation, like it was 
actually based on custodial 

1502
01:11:30,160 --> 01:11:34,120
wallets like that, but. 
So on that I'll say something. 

1503
01:11:34,200 --> 01:11:36,760
But like, basically the question
is like, how do you avoid that, 

1504
01:11:36,760 --> 01:11:39,960
right? 
And basically the solution is 

1505
01:11:39,960 --> 01:11:42,200
like, well, you basically have 
this kind of hub like model 

1506
01:11:42,200 --> 01:11:44,840
where you have a smaller number 
of more powerful nodes and like 

1507
01:11:44,840 --> 01:11:47,080
you're concentrating the proving
work and at the same time you're

1508
01:11:47,080 --> 01:11:49,040
massively distributing the 
verifying work, right? 

1509
01:11:49,240 --> 01:11:52,520
Basically the challenge is like,
if we can actually do this, then

1510
01:11:52,520 --> 01:11:55,800
like we actually can like create
something that is sort of 

1511
01:11:55,800 --> 01:11:59,280
maximum decentralization and 
maximum scale at the same time. 

1512
01:11:59,600 --> 01:12:03,400
And the technology exists to 
like actually do that, right? 

1513
01:12:03,440 --> 01:12:06,720
It's funny because that is like 
10 years after Bitcoin. 

1514
01:12:06,720 --> 01:12:09,640
It would only have come up after
people pushed on that part of 

1515
01:12:09,640 --> 01:12:12,520
the directory. 
One thing is I do think Bitcoin 

1516
01:12:12,520 --> 01:12:15,680
scalability, it's not lightning.
I'm I'm very skeptical and 

1517
01:12:15,680 --> 01:12:17,600
something's about, but it 
actually already exists, which 

1518
01:12:17,600 --> 01:12:23,760
is it's either A, an infrequent 
on chain transaction or B, it's 

1519
01:12:23,760 --> 01:12:25,720
an off chain transaction to 
something like Coinbase or 

1520
01:12:25,720 --> 01:12:28,040
Binance or El Salvador or 
whatever that just runs 

1521
01:12:28,040 --> 01:12:29,920
essentially off chain 
transactions between it's 

1522
01:12:29,920 --> 01:12:31,720
people. 
So you have infrequent digital 

1523
01:12:31,720 --> 01:12:35,800
gold movements between these 
hubs and then you have like all 

1524
01:12:35,800 --> 01:12:38,400
these spokes on these hubs. 
And that's basically how Bitcoin

1525
01:12:38,400 --> 01:12:40,480
scales. 
My critique of that kind of 

1526
01:12:40,480 --> 01:12:44,640
stuff is basically that if the 
like open permission, less 

1527
01:12:45,240 --> 01:12:48,720
censorship, resisted aspects of 
the ecosystem are not aspects 

1528
01:12:48,720 --> 01:12:51,720
that can be that are experienced
by users directly and we just 

1529
01:12:51,720 --> 01:12:54,520
say those things belong to 
institutions, then that's just 

1530
01:12:54,520 --> 01:12:56,480
something that's inherently more
vulnerable to capture. 

1531
01:12:56,600 --> 01:13:00,560
OK, last question then. 
Let's wrap some Say Silicon 

1532
01:13:00,560 --> 01:13:03,320
Valley SF is losing its supreme 
position as central tech 

1533
01:13:03,320 --> 01:13:05,280
founders. 
Do you agree? 

1534
01:13:05,680 --> 01:13:08,080
Yes, no. 
And if so, where do you think is

1535
01:13:08,080 --> 01:13:09,520
the best place to start a global
startup? 

1536
01:13:11,040 --> 01:13:12,440
I think it depends on your 
industry, right? 

1537
01:13:12,440 --> 01:13:15,360
Like like if you're in AI, then 
spending a lot of time there 

1538
01:13:15,600 --> 01:13:19,800
like is like very helpful. 
I mean, I think like my personal

1539
01:13:19,800 --> 01:13:22,600
philosophy toward that whole 
region is like, there's a lot of

1540
01:13:22,600 --> 01:13:24,240
value you can get by being part 
of it. 

1541
01:13:24,240 --> 01:13:28,280
But like, I think if you go 
visit for two to three weeks a 

1542
01:13:28,280 --> 01:13:33,280
year, then you get the majority 
of the benefit and you've you at

1543
01:13:33,280 --> 01:13:36,880
the same time, like that's still
a low enough dose that you can 

1544
01:13:36,880 --> 01:13:41,240
like avoid imbibing the crazy. 
I think a lot, a lot of parts of

1545
01:13:41,440 --> 01:13:43,600
the world are great places to be
based in, right? 

1546
01:13:43,600 --> 01:13:47,760
I mean, if it's like places like
Berlin, like I'm always a big 

1547
01:13:47,760 --> 01:13:51,520
fan of Berlin because I think 
the local community does a great

1548
01:13:51,520 --> 01:13:54,960
job of like remembering what 
crypto is actually there for, 

1549
01:13:54,960 --> 01:13:57,560
right. 
And like basically, not just, 

1550
01:13:57,720 --> 01:14:01,080
you know, like chasing like the,
the short term narratives. 

1551
01:14:01,120 --> 01:14:03,960
There's a huge amount of top 
tier talent, right? 

1552
01:14:03,960 --> 01:14:07,560
Like even like safe, like the 
the smart contract, while people

1553
01:14:07,560 --> 01:14:10,480
are there, huge numbers of 
Ethereum core developers are 

1554
01:14:10,480 --> 01:14:14,000
there. 
So there's a lot of like 

1555
01:14:14,000 --> 01:14:17,840
different parts of of the world 
that are like this. 

1556
01:14:17,880 --> 01:14:21,880
And so I think especially with a
combination of the Internet and 

1557
01:14:21,880 --> 01:14:26,800
with a combination of more 
localized net like in person 

1558
01:14:26,800 --> 01:14:31,440
network effect hubs like this, 
you're the like the need to be 

1559
01:14:31,440 --> 01:14:34,400
in a global superstar city to be
at the front of the world is 

1560
01:14:34,400 --> 01:14:36,000
much less than it was five years
ago. 

1561
01:14:36,280 --> 01:14:38,400
I agree with that. 
All right, with that, let's 

1562
01:14:38,400 --> 01:14:39,240
wrap. 
Thanks, everybody. 

1563
01:14:39,240 --> 01:14:39,840
Thank you for your time.