Hey everyone, it's Matt. This is fantasy football almost
daily. Today, Trevor and I are about to
preview just about every angle of the Super Bowl.
Before we get to that, let me tell you about fan balls.
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We've got a $20 Superb Owl with a $1000 top prize.
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And finally, there's the $1.00 Superb Owl 100 to 1st.
That one's already close to half full.
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Now it's time for Tate's sweet intro music from the Sports Hub
Games Network. This is fantasy football, almost
dated with your host Matt Harrison.
What's up Trevor Jones, how you doing today?
Matt, it's I'm good. We made it to Super Bowl week.
It's been what, 20-1 weeks of football season and we're
finally at the the fairy tale end.
Yeah, it it, it, it's everything that we all thought it was going
to be at the beginning of the season.
The Patriots and the Seahawks. I believe the Patriots were 80
to 1 to win the Super Bowl and the Seahawks were 60 to 1.
So whoever wins this one is the second lowest favorite to ever
win the big game. Who's number one the I believe
the Los Angeles, not the Saint Louis Rams back in the day.
Oh, sure. Greatest show on turf.
I believe they were 1:50 to 1:00 to win the big game back in the
day. So that's my finger in the wind
from stuff that I have heard over all of the media that I've
been absorbing during Super Bowl week.
But today we're going to get to everything in the Super Bowl.
We're going to dive into some of our favorite player props.
We'll talk a little bit about my prop bet game that I talked
about, talked about at the beginning of the show and some
of our favorite fan ball 5 by 5 plays of the week.
And it's kind of an interesting slate.
I know that I've built a few internal line UPS in the fan
ball 5 by 5. I bet you have too.
I'm, I'm interested to see where you're going to go, but first
let's preview this game for reals and we'll do it fantasy
football almost daily style. Trevor, we've split this up.
I have the Pats, you have the Seahawks.
Let's start on your side where Seattle is still sitting as 4
1/2 point favorites last I saw. How do you want to start your
Seattle side here? Yeah, we'll kind of, we'll just
start with the pass game and and get on to Ken Walker eventually.
So Sam Darrow, we'll start with the bronze.
New England's defense has been excellent in the post season.
They limited Herbert Stroud and Jared Siddam to just two
touchdowns to go with five picks.
Can't believe they limited Stiddy in a snowstorm.
That's true. That was what an effort.
Certainly Darnold is playing much better than honestly any of
those quarterbacks. Including Herbert.
I will know. Yeah, those 3 quarterbacks all
scored 11 or fewer fantasy points.
Pats were a top five toughest matcher for posing quarterbacks
this year. Fantasy points?
They haven't given up 200 passing yards in a game since
Week 10. However, Darnell, JSN, Walker
and Seattle actually has a excellent field position a lot
this year. So I think that's kind of enough
to keep to keep Sam Darwin in play.
Obviously everyone's in play on a single game slate.
Certainly JSN, he gets an easy goal.
He's 1A or 1B with Kuka. Best wideout in the game.
Highest target share in the league right now, 2 at over 36%.
We know actually the past top two corners are very good
specifically Christian Gonzalez. I kind of think JSS match up
proof at this point and he also moves all across the formation
slot. He gets backfield work
occasionally so it's not like he'll be shadowed by in a league
corner at a single play. Cooper cup I'll give him a
bronze. Obviously we've got the Super
Bowl 56 MVP narrative he at 8 for 92 and 2:00, but that was a
lifetime ago for Mr. cup. If you think he can repeat you
can get him for 66 to 1 to win Super Bowl MVP.
So just in case you're. I don't think we're going to get
him to repeat that. I don't think so, but it's
available. So cup's useful, but he's not
really explosive anymore. He had just three touchdowns all
year, just two games over 12 PPR points all season.
It's really tough to see a sealing case.
And like I said, New England's been kind of dominating opposing
passing attacks. Rashid Shahid, I'll keep him
alive with the commercial bronze.
In his 11 Seattle games, he's posted zero or one catch 8
times. The angle here is that the long
play, right? It's it's the long catch, it's
the one for 51. Or it's he'll get a couple
carries probably. So maybe he busts a long carry.
Or, obviously, the return touchdown he had against San
Francisco in the divisional round.
More on Rashid Shaheed later in the show.
OK, yeah, I like it and I especially the 5 by 5 Shaheed
and Seahawks D is an interesting little double dip.
That's kind of the only spot I'd play though.
I think it's she needs more just kind of a low owned contrarian
bet like a more of a GPP style kind of play.
AJ Barner, he gets a bronze. The former Michigan Wolverine
has just 4 catches on 6 targets in his last three.
He still gets the tush push opportunities and he played a
ton of snaps last week, all but three snaps in the NFC title
game. So clearly, you know, they're
going to lean on him a little harder than usual.
The match up is fine it he's touched on our bust, right?
That's that's kind of AJ Barner's his whole deal on the
ground here. Ken Walker gets a goal.
You could throw him a platinum if you want.
He's been excellent since Zach Charbonnay got hurt in the first
half against San Fran in the divisional round. 22 and 23
touches in the last two playoff games, he's caught all seven of
his targets, scored four different times.
Patriots do have a top third of the league run defense.
But the workload is so good for Ken Walker right now.
I'm just, I'm not really worried.
And then George Lani, the backup running back, he's the clear
backup to Ken Walker at this point.
So decent pass catcher. He's caught three of us, 4
targets in the NEC title game last week.
I think he's kind of an interesting long shot play or
like a prop bet option. You know, if you want to take
Kehlani like over 20 yards or something, you know, at least
Ken Walker gets hurt or maybe, you know, the Seahawks are off a
ton. They don't.
They don't need to put Ken Walker on the field.
So I think that's kind of an interesting spot for George
Kehlani there. I'm pretty bullish.
On these Seahawks here. Yeah.
And I'd say to that new one was bottom 10 in running back
receptions. So a little bit, a little bit of
juice for the running backs. OK, well, on the Patriots side,
I'm going to start with the running game.
Ramandre Stevenson ran for the most yards in conference
championship week. Did so rather quietly, though.
He had 71 rushing yards on 25 attempts, and it's worth noting
that Trayvion Henderson only had three carries for five yards in
a game where the Pats could basically do nothing but run
after midway through the third quarter.
It was too snowy to pass. It was 25 to 3 in rushing
attempts. That's notable.
So I think it's completely Stevenson's backfield.
Seattle's run defense has been good all year, but last game the
Rams backs combined for 19 carries and 94 yards.
That's almost 5 yards per attempt.
And we know that Seattle has had issues with defending running
backs in the passing game all year.
In the regular season, the Hawks allowed the most receptions to
opposing runners and the sixth most receiving yards.
Now, Romandre averaged a little over 3 receptions per game in
the final month and change of the season, and Henderson was
kind of phased out of the passing attack when Romandre
came back from injury. So I'm going to give a gold
grade to Romandre here. I think if the Patriots are
going to get there, they have to establish the run, they have to
get Romandre going in the past game as well and attack
Seattle's few weak spots. And I think that Stevenson is
the best way to attack Seattle in this game.
On the New England side, Drake May I'm much more nervous about.
He's been dealing with both an illness and a shoulder injury
that has him limited basically the last week and change now.
I'm not nervous about him like actually suiting up and playing.
He's going to do that, but I don't know if I like a second
year quarterback playing in obviously the biggest game of
his career without being fully healthy, getting full reps in
practice, and he's going against maybe the best defense in the
league. Now.
Mays played in bad weather basically the whole play offs
and he's played against good defenses too.
And he's beat both Houston and Denver.
So his numbers were definitely down because of weather and
because of really good defenses. Stafford did figure out a way to
throw for 374 and three last a game against Seattle, but he and
Baker Mayfield were the only ones the top 260 yards against
them this year. Brightside, I guess.
Safety Nick Iman Wari came up with an ankle injury on
Wednesday and practice, and he's a big part of that secondary.
He'll probably go, but that's a slight positive for Drake May.
Still, Seattle only allowed 20 passing scores during the
regular season and had 18 picks. So I've just got a bronze on
Drake May especially since it feels like the Pats might trail
in the second-half and May just might be forced into throwing a
lot. I mean, I can get to a bronze,
but it's not a feel good bronze right there.
The wide receivers are very tricky.
Stefan Diggs will run most of his routes out of the slot and
even worry plays there about half the time.
Enrique Woolen gets the other half of the slot duties for the
Seahawks, and I believe they'll have Kayshawn Booty on the
outside. I think they're going to try to
scheme him to Josh Job's side if they can, but Seattle will
ultimately decide whether Josh Job or Devin Witherspoon are on
him. Job was the most targeted
Seattle corner on the year. He was the lowest rated
according to Pro Football Focus. He was something like 96th or
97th rated, which is terrible, but he had the lowest passer
rating among Seattle corners in coverage.
So I don't really know how the Pro Football Focus ranking
worked there because Job like actually got it done by the
numbers where it mattered. Mack Hollins probably gets
thrown to the Devon Witherspoon Wolves as much as he can.
He was the second best cover corner in the league according
to Pro Football Focus. That being said, Booty and Diggs
are the only guys you can really target to play as they both get
around 5:00 to 6:00 targets per game.
Hollins, Demario Douglas, Kyle Williams, F and Chisholm.
They're like 0 to 1, maybe 2 targets per game kind of guys
digs gets a bronze because he sticks to the slot and I think
that he'll avoid Witherspoon altogether.
Booty. I think I'm leaving on the
bench. I think Seattle probably schemes
to take him out of the game with Witherspoon.
I mean that kind of leaves Hollins is like a really, really
deep dart throw kind of a thing. I know Drake may really likes
him and and and their boys, but man, I I don't know if I could
feel comfortable starting Mack Hollins in a game right now.
And then Hunter Henry's the last guy to mention here.
If he scores a touchdown, you'll get to double digit PPR points.
If he does not score a touchdown, you probably won't.
So if you're planning on playing him in any line up, this is
solely a Hunter Henry anytime touchdown bet and I looked at D
KS sports book. He's plus 2:35 to do that, which
means if they played this game three times, he's going to score
once. So that's not good enough for
me. I think I'd leave him on the
bench. If you really are feeling
confident in Hunter Henry and you're going to look to start
him in some fan ball line UPS, go make a wager on an anytime
Hunter Henry touchdown too and and maybe double up on it.
So that's where we sit. I've kind of wavered back and
forth on where I was this week. I think Seahawks win, but I
think the Patriots will cover. I think it'll be a three-point
game. Yeah, so it's interesting.
I put a large bet on Seattle -4 1/2 last Monday thinking I bet
that gets higher before game time.
The line is not moved. And like, I think like 70% of
public money or something is on the Seahawks.
So I'm getting a little nervous. But I do think I think the only
spots that the Patriots have an advantage, like a clear
advantage are mate, the quarterback and maybe their
interior of the defensive line and their special team is really
good. But so is Seattle's.
Seattle's just so good everywhere else.
It's like Garrett Bradbury starting, like Will Campbell is
getting like pushed off the ball in every playoff game.
It's just it's tough for me to see the Patriots coming through
here. Yeah, It it, it might just be
kind of like one of those backdoor covers.
I think it's going to be a pretty low scoring game.
Yes. The the the over under came down
a point and 1/2. So yeah, we are moving that
direction. Where's the over under at right
now? It was 46 1/2.
I believe it's 45 live. OK.
Yeah, I, I, I think I'd stick with the under on that one.
I I think so too. I don't think both teams get out
of the 20s. Yeah, probably not.
Feels like a 20 to 17 game or a 2120 game or something like.
That yeah, I. Agree.
All right, let's talk about how we're going to do this in the 5
by 5 on fan ball. There's basically 35 dollar guys
and then there's two backup quarterbacks in there.
It's JSN, Darnold and May. Let's just talk about them in
the tears here. Trevor, how would you play these
guys? Is it?
Would you really just kind of go JSN?
Do you have a Darnold lineup, a May lineup or you're going to
kind of sprinkle in a little bit of each?
Yeah, I I found myself not being able to get off of JSN and Ken
Walker. But obviously you just, you're
end up hating Romandre and Diggs and all the other good players.
It's funny actually, my lineup is just all of the guys on the
far left column. It's just JSN Walker, Trayvon
Hunter, Henry, Pop, Douglas. Just right down, right down the
row. And Henderson, I know 3 is like,
it's tough because like you said, he might play like 5
snaps, yeah, but there's also like, I bet no one else is going
to play him and if he's got the explosive ability to break, you
know, a 50 yard touchdown, so. So if you're ranking, if you're
ranking the $5 guys, you got JSN first and then Darnold and May,
I'd probably put. JSN May Darnold OK May's rushing
up side I think. All right, the four dollar guys
are Stefan Diggs, Ramandre Stevenson, Ken Walker, Jason
Myers, who's the Seattle kicker and the Seahawks D and I, I
found myself kind of gravitating to trying to start two guys in
the $5 and four dollar, sorry, three guys in the $5 and $4.00
tier and then getting dirty with some $1.00 dart throws.
Yeah, it's. Interesting.
At $4.00, I think Romandre and Ken Walker are like easily the
best plays. Seahawks D is really
interesting, I think, though. Yeah, I think there's a chance
that the Seattle defense kind of like destroys the Patriots a
little bit. So you compare that with Shahid
at $2.00? I think that's definitely in
play, $3 guys I didn't like very much.
It's Trayvion, Cooper, Cup, Pat's kicker Andy Borogalis,
Keyshawn Booty and the Pats D Out of those, I think Cup and
maybe the Pats D are probably the ones I'd go for, but I can't
find myself taking. Like I haven't taken a three
dollar guy in any of the line UPS I've tried to build.
Yeah, that's, that's true. I I would say it mostly might
have been like fives and fours and then I'll punt it off with a
couple ones. Yeah. $2.00 guys, both of the
starting tight ends, Hunter Henry and AJ Barner, Rasheed
Shaheed, who you mentioned that you like to pair with the
Seahawks D because you could get both the return touchdown for
Shaheed and the Seahawks D getting the return touchdown as
well. And there's George Helani and
Mack Hollins. Hollins is like the guy I would
go for if he was a $1.00 player, but at $2.00 I think it's I'm
I'm not finding him in line UPS. Like you said, it seems like
he's going to see a ton of Devin Witherspoon.
It's like, well, we have one of the best corners in the league
against, you know, no offense to Mack Hollins, but kind of a more
regular type player. I think a regular player is kind
of nice. Yeah.
He's he's, he's. He's been in the league for a
long time, man. And then finally the dollar dart
throws. These are where it gets kind of
interesting. Demario Douglas, Eric Saubert,
Effden Chisholm, Jake Bobo and Austin Hooper.
And I keep finding myself when I have to put in two of these guys
with Demario Douglas and Jake Bobo.
Yeah, I think Chisholm and Salberto probably don't bother
playing those guys. And then yeah, I've got Douglas
as my $1.00 player, but I think Cooper or Bobo are more than
fine options too. Yeah, I, I mean, Bobo caught a
touchdown pass in the last game and maybe they just kind of use
him down toward the stripe. And if you cash in with one
catch for a touchdown, that's all the seven points you need
you. Probably just plunge your
contest. Yeah, absolutely.
All right, let's talk a little bit about what you would do
during the Super Bowl game at your Super Bowl party.
I mean, some people play squares.
I hate squares personally, because it's just luck.
And you need 100 people to fill out the thing.
Not necessarily 100 people, but 100 squares.
Yeah. And if you have a Super Bowl
party and you got 12 people there, you're asking people to
basically take like 8 to 10 squares.
And that's not that cool. That's not fun.
So I'm I'm out on squares. Some people like to play like
Pass the Hat, and there's some other games that are a little
more interactive and that kind of thing.
I believe that I developed the best of the Super Bowl day
games. My prop bet games been going for
16 years. Last year the NFL made me not
put the name of the game in the title anymore, so I must be
doing something right. I was going to say they're
scared. Clearly.
Yeah. So now it's.
The big Sunday football prop bet game.
We had over 1000 people playing it last year.
I know that there's there's a lot of people who are going to
play it again this year. If you follow me on Twitter at
Explosive Output, I live tweet all of my group's answers.
So if you're worried about like, oh, who's who's going to pay
attention to get the answers, I got your back on that one.
So don't worry about that. Trevor.
You had to do it for me one year too.
I did. I picked up a handful of Twitter
followers for scoring the game live.
It was. That was pretty big so and I
told you about most of it at the beginning of the show.
You can find the link in the show notes promo code almost.
I'll give you 20% off. But Trevor, let's go through
some of the questions and what were the questions that you kind
of gravitated towards and liked the most?
Yeah, from the first section we have what will be the result of
the first offensive play of the game.
Question 5 here. So I went offensive team gets a
first down, which gives you 35 points.
I think that's a combination of value and probability of hitting
it, in my opinion. I also like turnover at 100
points and it like you said, it also depends on how many people
you're playing the game with. If there's like 50 people at
your Super Bowl party that are playing the game, I'm more apt
to go for a big swing like the turnover at 100 points.
But if you have like 10 to 15 people, I think I'd probably
played a little safer with the. Offensive team gets a first
down. Yeah.
And well, I think that that's that's important.
But I I do have like a list of the first play of every Super
Bowl game. Six out of the last seven have
been run plays for no first down.
So it's there's a reason you're getting 35 points, because it's
not. Gonna happen it it's almost a
lock to get it we we had that one weird one where the first
play in the Denver Peyton Manning ended up getting covered
for a safety that was that was amazing that was Super Bowl.
I think that was Super Bowl 50. I believe so.
But yeah, that one was pretty wild.
And I mean, an awesome, awesome win to get on on that kind of
thing. But I I think that that one's
almost automatic. Teams like to settle down as
soon as the Super Bowl start. It seems like run play is just
probably the way to go. Yeah, let's see here, next one.
I got question 16 from the next section.
Will any of these people appear on stage and sing with Bad Bunny
during the halftime show? Maybe multiple correct answers,
which is good to know as well. It it Yeah, you you could have
three of them. So I chose Shakira at 35 points.
There we go. In 2020, the 2020 Super Bowl
Shakira. Were were Jennifer Lopez, Ricky
Martin and Shakira. Or none of the above maybe?
Or none of the above, Yeah. So yeah.
What Shakira and Jlo did, the 2020 Super Bowl halftime show,
they brought out Bad Bunny as a guest.
So we kind of with all the, you know, rhetoric in our country, I
assume Bad Bunny could have a Latin surprise guest or two to
join them on the stage. Shakira gets the most points and
I also think is the most likely. I think Shakira is like kind of
the number one Latin pop star maybe ever.
So yeah, I I actually feel pretty good about this one,
which maybe I shouldn't. So these these odds were based
on like real life sports book props that I did find.
So Jennifer Lopez and Ricky Martin were were actually like
minus money to appear on stage. So I don't know if people know
something that might happen. Shakira was plus money, but I
thought it was, I thought as you do that she might be there.
It might be worth it just to get the extra points because Jlo and
Ricky Martin are 15 points for the answers.
Shakira's 35. So you're more than double so
if. But if all three show up, you're
still winning in that scenario by 20 points.
That's a good point. That's a really good point.
Yeah. What's your next one?
Yeah, I got question 21. Here, I'll read it for you.
I'll read it for you. After the first turnover of the
game, which of the following service commercials will be seen
first? TurboTax or State Farm is 15
points. Ramp or Rippling is 20 points.
Squarespace or Spectrum 25 points.
No turnovers the entire game or the game ends 25 points.
Where'd you go? So I'll just, I'll start this
off by saying I, I play that game usually every year and I
get the commercials wrong every single time.
So I'll say what I got to say and then just pick a different
1. So I went with Squarespace or
Spectrum for 25 points. Again, it's the highest point
total available. And I know Squarespace loves the
Super Bowl ad. I feel like I can picture, I
don't know, Jeff Goldblum or somebody reading their ad stuff.
So yeah, I have no idea. That's just random pick.
I do research on all the commercials before this.
All of these commercials are confirmed so they all will be a
part of the Super Bowl. I, I think my favorite of the,
of the questions on the commercials was after the second
score of the game, which of these random commercials will be
seen first? My favorite answer that made me
laugh out loud when I typed it was Jesus or liquid death at 20
points. I, I, I like the combination of
Jesus and liquid death together. Yeah.
You know, Hyundai or GMC 15
points, Raisin Bran or Kinder Bueno at 25 and Starbucks or
Taco Bell at 25. Jesus or liquid death.
I'm going for Jesus and liquid death for sure.
I mean, it's the funniest. Even if you don't get it, it's
still the funniest answer. Yeah.
All right. You got anything from the the
late section? Because there's 4 sections in
this. There's a section on anthem,
coin toss, early game stuff. We got the national anthem.
By the way, I've seen a couple of these other sports prop bet
sheets out there and they're like over under 90 seconds.
Nobody has this anthem at anything but like 119 or 120.
So 90 seconds is a fool's bet right there.
It's over on that. But under hits more often than
not on the anthem. I I like the under 120 seconds
or Charlie Puth goes instrumental with it.
But so we got anthem, we got halftime show stuff.
There's six questions on the halftime show, There's six
questions on commercials. And then there's full game and
end game items which I gave names to, like Malcolm Butler's
ghost. Will Seattle attempt a pass on
any place snapped from the New England 1 yard line?
Yes or no? 45 for the S10 For the no.
I had that originally as my last question and then I started
looking at what Seattle's done on the 1 yard line this year and
it is like a never throw the ball.
So all right, I'm done on that one.
Yeah, OK. The one I did actually end up
with was question 32. If you want to.
Oh sure. What's the margin of victory for
the winning team? One to six points is 15, 7 to 12
is 2013 to 18 is 40, and 19 or more is 60.
So I did go 13 and 13 to 18 for 40 points.
Like I said, I do kind of like Seattle, at least a cover.
So in a blowout, yeah, a little bit.
And like I said, I just, I think Seattle's a much better team.
I I wonder if Seattle just gets rolling like that.
Nineteen or more points at 60 points.
It's staring me right in the face.
And the final question is Who Will Win the game?
And you get 58 points if you select New England and they win
the game, or 29 points for Seattle If if you're going to be
on Seattle, which I think a lot of people will be.
I tried to entice the other end by putting a lot of points on
you. You.
Did you enticed me? I was like.
I thought about taking the pass, but if you're going to take
Seattle, I think how you differentiate in this game is
you take either 13 to 18 points or 19 or more points to to make
yourself the differentiator. If you just go with chalk and
you say Seattle one to six points, I mean, you might get it
right, but what's the fun and just yeah, there might be upside
in getting something else here. It's stacking right.
Well, if I Arnold throws to JSN, they both score.
So it's right wins and then they win by a lot.
Yeah, double dip. Yeah.
So the the mats prop bet game available for purchase.
It's on Etsy actually is where I'm selling at.
And you can you can go ahead. You can find it in the show
notes or if go find me at explosive output on Twitter and
it'll be pinned in my profile. And finally, before we go
Trevor, we decided to we don't normally do player props, but I
like to do a few player props here and there.
It's it's a fun thing to do, especially in the playoffs where
every everything's so magnified on these players.
And we each picked three of our favorite player props that we
found online. Why don't you start with one of
yours? Yeah, we didn't talk about this,
but the jersey are over your left shoulder there.
Jerry Rice 25 to one that someone breaks Jerry Rice's 215
yard Super Bowl record. This is a JSN bet, obviously.
Highest target share percentage in the league.
Seattle has a very narrow passing tree right now.
Shaheed gets literally like one to two target per game cup
underneath AJ Barner, Ken Walker, Helani aren't voluminous
in the passing game. You definitely need the path to
probably put up like 24 to 27 points for this to be live, but
I don't think it's insane. Like this is a guy that can
absolutely get 15 to 16 targets and he's got explosive ability.
Like what were the? Odds on that?
25 to one 215 yards. So I think JS, NS highest yards
this year was like 160. So, but the other thing is
Seattle's never pushed. So in case New England can push
Seattle a little bit, I think there's like an actual chance he
could he could get there. So if you were, could you parlay
the breaking Jerry Rice's record with JSNMVP?
Because if one's happening, the other's probably happening and
you're probably getting like 50 or 60 to one at that point.
Yeah, 'cause I think JS NS plus 475 Super Bowl MVP.
So yeah, yeah, that would be a, that would be a big one.
What's your what's your first one, Matt?
I have Romandre Stevenson over 14 1/2 rushing attempts and I
also kind of liked the Stevenson.
I saw 50 1/2 rushing yards and over 20 1/2 rush attempts plus
targets. Although if you bet them
individually, it was 14 rushing attempts and 3 1/2 targets.
So that gets to 18. So you're if you bet them
individually, you're kind of better off than going with the
20 1/2 rush attempts plus targets.
So stick to the 14 1/2 rushing attempts.
The Rams ran 19 times against Seattle and they kept it pretty
close. Stevenson's workload has been
through the roof, as we kind of mentioned in the in the
playoffs, as the playoffs have worn on.
He had 13 touches against the Chargers.
That one was kind of a blowout, and they almost didn't really
need Stevenson all that much in the second-half of that game. 20
touches against a really, really tough Houston Texans defense.
That's one that it's impossible to run against.
They gave him 20 touches. Then he plays Denver's defense,
also really tough to run against.
He gets 25 carries against Denver's run defense.
They saved him down the stretch to play these games against
these kind of teams, and they believe in Ramandre Stevenson.
Right now, it feels like 14 1/2 rushing attempts is a good
number. I'm a little scared betting it,
but I think that if the Patriots want any chance of staying in
this game, they got to get him close to like 18 to 20 rushing
attempts or they're not even going to be in it anymore.
I agree. And I think the general public
might not be as aware of how little Trayvon Henderson
actually plays. They just see like borderline
first round pick and think, hey, that guy's, you know, a star.
So I think that's kind of driving a little bit of the that
narrative as well. Yeah.
What's your second one? Second one?
This one's not super fun. How many players will attempt a
pass over under 2 1/2? I'm taking the under at -200 I
know that's not a fun bet to lay, but it's a good bet.
So Cooper Cup has one pass attempt all year.
That's the only non Seattle quarterback to throw a pass.
No non quarterback attempt to pass for the Patriots this
season. People do think of the Patriots
as a team that's done this before, right?
Julian Edelman has an attempt in both the 2014 and 2016 Super
Bowls. However, Edelman was a college
quarterback. The Pats don't currently have
anyone on the roster like that. Like I said, I know it's not fun
to like -200 but if you want to like a little bit of a free bet,
I think that's a. Good one.
Both of these quarterbacks have a little bit of an injury thing
and it's I. I.
Quarterback. Thing No, I just wonder if it's
going to be like, oh, Josh Drake's out for a play.
All right, Josh Dobbs get in here, hand the ball off.
All right, Drake, get back out here.
The past or not is going to take you down.
Watch it my my second one's also a quarterback related one and
maybe it's not that fun either. Drake May anytime.
Interception in the game, shoulder injury, best secondary
in the league. If they're behind, they're going
to ask him to throw a lot. He threw a pick against the
Chargers and the Texans in the playoff run.
Didn't throw very much against Denver at all 'cause it was so
crappy in the second-half. Do I think that Drake May has a
shot of winning the Super Bowl? Yes, I do.
Do I think he's going to be perfect in this game?
I definitely do not. And Seattle had the fifth most
interceptions in the league this year.
They have 19, including playoff games.
So I I just think 19 interceptions in 19 games.
That's an average of 1. So I think that I think that
Drake may probably throws at least one pick in this game.
I do like that one. I also like Darnold anytime
interception, which means like a -, 110 or something.
One of my favorite things on the parlays is putting any time
interception in for a quarterback and just rooting for
him to throw a pick the entire time.
It's always like one of my favorite.
I don't know why you only need one.
You're not like, you know, rooting for.
You're rooting for just one pick, one time.
Yeah. Could come at the end of the
game when they're desperate, all all sorts of stuff like that.
A. 100% I like that one. Final.
Prop. Bet yeah my next one I got two
more if people want to. My favorite is which will be
higher, longest made field goal or longest play from scrimmage?
I took longest play from scrimmage at plus 150.
Where did? You find that?
Oh, these are all in bed online, by the way, which is a pretty
ridiculous Their lines are pretty readily available in most
places. So let's assume 53 yards for the
longest field goal, right? That's that's a pretty long
field goal for a Super Bowl. Longest all the time was 57, the
number of players who could top 53 yards on one play in this
game. JSN, Rashid, Shahid Romandre,
Steph Diggs, Trayvon, maybe even Mack Hollins.
Just be like Drake throws it 50 yards and go jump up for it,
those guys. In there.
Too. Yeah, yeah.
Yep. Even Pop Douglas occasionally
can get explosive. So anyways, those guys,
specifically JSN Shahid digs, Romandre Trayvon of Hollins
combined for 11 plays over 53 yards this year.
Now where it gets interesting is that the longest field goal is
only 40 to 45. Then you're really live because
JSN has like 8 more of those, like between 40 and, you know,
52 or whatever kind of plays. So it's a weird one, but yeah,
plus money. And I think it's a pretty
interesting. I I like that one.
My final one is Rashid Shahid, over 4 1/2 rushing yards in this
one. He's had a rushing attempt in
eight of his eleven games as a member of the Seahawks.
In five of those games, he's had at least 5 rushing yards.
Then that's, that's all you need.
So five out of eight times that he's had a carry, he's he's hit
that number. In three of those games he had
over 20 rushing yards because he's broken a big one since
Charbonnet went down. Shaheed has had three rushing
attempts in those 1 1/2 games. So he's he's averaging basically
a rushing attempt per half right now.
They have to have a few reverses in the playbook for him.
They're going to hand him the ball at least once in this game.
All he needs to do is get 5 yards.
He's like a locked in for a carry.
Like he he gets carries. Like all the time or in most
games? I don't think George Helani is
somebody that anybody's nervous about taking a lot of rushing
attempts. So when he's on the field, it's
normally a pass blocking situation and that means
Shaheed's probably out there as well on A3 wide receiver set.
And I think that it's a pass or a Shaheed sweep on one of those
ones where they're spelling Ken Walker Holani's on the field,
they're going to give Shaheed one of them.
I agree. I think if like, Charbonnay was
still healthy, I wouldn't be as excited.
But because Shahid is just a more talented player than anyone
else, they have behind Ken Walker to run the ball.
So I, I like that one. Yeah, I got two more here that
are super quick. Will Patriots left tackle?
Will Campbell allow a sack? Yes -140 so yeah, I took yes
-140 Past quarterbacks took 48 sacks this year, a bottom 10
mark. Seattle had 47 sacks on defense,
good for 7th in the league. Mike McDonald with two weeks and
like 6 above average pass rushers against Will Campbell
and Garrett Bradberry and some of these guys.
Plus Drake wants to hold the ball right.
He's fumbling all the time, so I kind of like that one.
And then Ken Walker, over 33 1/2 rushing yards in the first half
at -125 he had fifty in the first half in Week 18 against
the Niners, 34 in the first half in the divisional round against
San Fran. And that includes Zach Shaven, a
stealing 20 in the first half before his injury and then 37
last week in the NFC title game. A little bit of juice at -125
but he's hitting it pretty consistently.
And it's going to be the kind of Walker show like, what did they
win or lose? He's getting 20 touches.
Yeah, I mean, I I'm a little nervous that since some of the
Patriots interior lineman have kind of returned, that they've
been a lot better against the run and that that might stop
Walker a little bit. It's a it's a more it's a more
difficult front than he's faced in the in the two playoff games
so far, Yes. And I I don't know if you know
the Seahawks right guard Anthony Bradford.
No, for anyone listening personally, no, Yeah, yeah, no.
So if you've never heard of him, he's starting right guard for
the Seahawks. Do yourself a favor, go to
YouTube or Twitter, whatever your favorite social media app
is. Search his highlights from this
year. And just pop some popcorn in it
at 10 minutes of just shenanigans, just tripping,
people falling over themselves, fake blocks.
It's it's wild that like somebody like this is on a Super
Bowl team, but. You'll have to, you'll have to
send me a link to that for sure. It's great.
Yeah. I I think that we've covered
everything Super Bowl here. A reminder that there's still
time left to grab a spot in any of the fanball contest this
weekend. 20 dollars, $5 and $1.00 superb Owls.
They're still taking reservations, but spots are
going quickly. By the way, if you don't have
the Fanball mobile app, the newer Fanball mobile app which
houses Fanball winners and it houses our one and done golf
game, you might want to download it because I believe that the
Super Bowl Superb Owl 5 by Fives will be up in the Fanball app
very, very shortly. Like maybe within hours but I
saw the new update. It's very, it's very slick.
Very pretty, very pretty. So you could track it on your
phone with an actual good app. We built a bad app before.
I'm sorry, it's. Been up for last time.
All right, thanks to Trevor at T Jones 5 on Twitter.
I'm at Explosive output and if you want to come get my prop bet
game, come visit me over there on the Twitter machine or at
Explosive Output on Blue Sky. I've got it linked there as
well. Trevor, thanks a lot.
Good luck with all of your Super Bowl wagers this week and.
As well, Hopefully the game goes off great.
Yeah, and we're, we're probably going to come back with we're,
we're probably going to take a little bit of a break on fantasy
football almost daily. I know Scott Fish and I have
been talking about doing a couple of future shows on the
dynasty side, focusing on some dynasty aspects and safe
leagues. So if you're interested in that,
you know, keep subscribe to the the the program here and we'll
make sure to give you a few a few Nuggets during the NFL
offseason. I know I got a few friends in
the NFL draft business that I'm hoping to get on the show with
me. So excited to preview a few of
those things on FFAD. So stick around.
But thanks for watching today and good luck at your superb owl
party. We'll see you then.
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