I am excited to introduce Our Guest today.
None, other than Sam Callaghan, we will be joined later by our
second special guest Sam. Welcome to the show.
How are you doing? Now don't put them on yet.
No, take him out. Not I don't.
Yeah, there we go. Good, what's up?
He's still in timeout. We're mad.
At P. What's wrong?
I'm always here. Okay.
All right. So will clue you in on what has
happened. So, about a month and a half
ago, my co-host, this show the letter that comes before Q in
the alphabet promised, everyone that he would eat shoe leather.
If the He emerge went through in just the month of September and
look to be honest. I really didn't think was going
to happen. I thought it was like a very
sound bet for him to make but lo and behold here we are And
conveniently on the day of the merge.
P was nowhere to be found. And for the last five days,
we've been so worried. I've been on the phone with the
police all over his hometown, his new HomeTown, I've been on
the phone with his parents, not a single phone call or text all
weekend, while we're worried sick and then he just shows up
like nothing happened. Nope, we're mad at you pee.
Look, I had some deep research to do.
I really looked at myself in the mirror and the determination.
I came to is that I need to make good on my promise.
The fact that the ethereum quote-unquote merge which is
really just a hard Fork. By another name is totally
bullshit is beside the point so I want you to know I went and
toured several leather factories.
I have my setup right here, which I'm going to demonstrate
for you just a moment Sam. I want your thoughts.
Also just beautiful microphone Electro-Voice re 20 way to go my
friend. So look, I mean, you'll see
like, you know, I can't work. I'm glad he is gotten into the
spirit of today. As I did never show you.
There we go. We got the fire that's burning.
I'm learning how to cook shoe leather.
How to remove the the dangerous lethal elements, like the, the
vulcanized rubber the, the patina they put on the shoe to
protect it from water. It's going to be real.
Don't don't don't worry, don't worry.
So thank you for telling you now that you're caught up on the the
drama of Decor magazine, live Sam, welcome, back to the show.
Thanks man, happy to be here. So in about 19 minutes from now,
the fomc will release their most recent In rate hike stuff, I
went and found my little stuffed kangaroo that we are going to
sacrifice live on air before the minutes become official.
And I want to ask you Sam at this point in 2022.
Do you even care anymore about these fomc meetings?
Please, I don't actually I really, I kind of don't.
I might have never cared be honest with you, you know, I
think the FED is more jawboning than anything.
And I think we all know where the This is going to lead, which
is an eventual pivot. We don't know when that pivot
is, but it's, they've always pivoted in the past and usually,
it happens probably longer than people suspect and that they
have gotten the rates up higher than I kind of thought they
could. So that that's a testament to
them. I guess, what?
The given debt levels, but I think it just takes time for
monetary policy to actually get into the economy.
I think there's a lag effect and so I think we won't really see
the effects of it in the real economy until later on.
Probably Q4 or Lee Kyu won, you'll start to see things
really start to turn in the economy.
And then, once there's some actual pain, then we'll see that
the FED is still spineless and it'll hit it again.
So, you know, I expect them to raise rates throughout the rest
of the year, really. And I think it's going to be
like a 75 50, 50 kind of thing in terms of November or December
2. And so, I don't really expect
that big of shocks right now. So yeah, I don't really care.
No, this is like in all of our conversations that we've had
together, I've come to realize as someone who analyzes the
macro environment and rights for Swan and do so much great stuff
around this type of stuff you care the absolutely about the
political atmosphere and anything that comes out a drum
house mouth, which I do degree almost admire because me being
so anxiety, right? Did he just say that?
Did wait, what boat? But I can't afford a house now,
like I could have afforded a house 12 months ago, I can't
anymore. But besides the point, I want to
get a sense from you. Earlier this week, we saw the
two year yields, the 2-year, treasury bond.
Shot up to 4% yield who they woke up to that news and was
like, so groggy. I thought, I was still asleep
because I was like, no, there's, there's no way.
Here's what your reaction was to seeing such a, such a steep
Spike to the two-year yield this week.
Well, I think it just shows that the bond market, you know things
are not done and you know the FED has never been so far behind
the bond market in terms of its ability to raise.
So when I think it just can you qualify, what do you what do you
mean by that? Well, like if you just track
like the federal funds rate to the two-year, usually they track
pretty closely and right now the two years way above the federal
funds rate. So that's what people mean when
they say the FED is behind the curve.
And so really what the bond market is saying is that they
think that the FED needs to, you know, either calm down you know
or let these things kind of play out but the FED is likely to
keep over hiking and will probably overshoot things
eventually but just kind of shows that you know the bond The
market is still seeing that there's, you know, a lot of
inflation risk in there and stuff like that.
So we'll see what happens. But, you know, people think that
it's going to be a 75 B raised in here in a little bit, is a
potential that it could be an entire one percentage Point
raised, which would be a very, very steep hike in one meat.
But it's because there's this huge gap still between the two
year and the federal funds. So people think that they're
behind the curve so to speak. I want to.
I want to spend some time talking to you about
International markets, because I know that that's you've spent so
much time just studying these things and learning about it.
But before we switch over, I do want to just Before we go.
So deep into the Doom and Gloom of, I want to have a little bit
of light-hearted positive conversation here.
That's cool. We see hash rate and difficulty
hitting new all-time highs. Suggesting miners are coming
back online. We're seeing my recapitulation
seem to slow down or almost and seeing what are some bullish
Tailwinds that you're seeing for just the broader Bitcoin
ecosystem and I don't give a shit about price because let's
be real. It's going to go down and I want
cheapest hats. Well hash rate going all time
high is definitely positive. I think really that's a function
of these miners throughout 2021 we had access to Capital and
they were able to basically have a bunch of capex and decide that
they're going to expand their facilities.
And so what we're seeing now is those plans start to actually
manifest and they're actually plugging in the minors that they
had planned, you know, 912 Months ago and there was also
Supply chains issue. So that hash rate increase.
I think it's more of just these large miners finally getting
their stuff online rather than like more miners turning back on
or if so to speak. And so that's a good thing.
I mean that's a good thing for the Bitcoin Network.
I think you're seeing like total Supply held by long-term
toddlers. You know, hit like an all-time
high, which is another positive development.
I think it just shows that there's a convicted base of
hollers that aren't moving their coins.
It's probably everyone on this call right now is part of that.
The other thing is just the still, like, institutional
interest throughout this bear Market compared to 2018 there
really wasn't these, you know, developments in the bottom of
the bear Market, it was really quiet and it was kind of sad.
But now you have, like, news, like, Fidelity coming out and
considering, you know, offering Bitcoin to millions of
individual brokerage accounts. You got Franklin Templeton also
almost like a trillion dollar man.
Manager still in the middle of the bear Market with Bitcoin
down 70%, they are still building out infrastructure for
the next Bull Run. And so, that's foolish to me,
you know, like it just shows that even despite the price
action, they're still excitement and interest at the
institutional level and infrastructure being built out.
And so that's the kind of things that I like to see.
So those three things are probably what I'd say.
Like hash rate all-time high. That's good.
Minor is kind of start, stop selling or at least for now.
So you can see that with the set.
Are called kind of blanket on it.
Charles Edwards came up with it. If Joe is here, you know what
I'm talking about? Yeah.
So it flipped and so it kind of shows that minor stop selling
and you got long-term handlers holding on and then you got
institutional interest. So those three things those are
both, those are bullish developments.
So I'm excited about that. So one on pack that last one
because we had a philosophical debate on the show pee while you
are gone and like, I'm curious your opinion as well Sam's, but
I'm going to take this stance going forward.
I've already I've already said it, I'm no longer going to cheer
for any Corporation, especially a billion plus dollar
corporation that turns around and says, we're gonna adopt
Bitcoin store Bitcoin, accept Bitcoin.
Nor am I going to start celebrating or applaud.
High net worth individuals. Who decide?
Oh, I'm going to now by up and allocated percentage of my net
worth to bitcoin. My rationale quite frankly is
just simply put a big one, is meant to be the life raft for
the people. It needs to be a hands of the
people. Not these corporations, but
maybe I'm just a little too altruistic about this.
Rip. Rip this argument apart, but
let's discuss because I think we've, we may have gone too far
in One Direction, and it's time to Start thinking about
longevity and writing the ship a little bit.
So are you more like the cost basis like you want the cost
basis lower for plebs? Or you more about this
centralization is the right question.
Look cute. He's just betrayed himself as a
Fiat bitch and look that's okay, Sam.
You and I can sit on the sidelines and be like you one
day you will learn the importance of Bitcoin one.
Bitcoin equals one Bitcoin. Also, I have to say the kangaroo
that you have like just slightly in frame is Terrifying to me.
I don't know what's going on there.
Every time I see more of it, it Inspire more anxiety and fear in
me, but then, let's solve the kangaroo to live up, Sam.
I'm rooting for 100 basis. Point rate hike, I just want
chaos, I don't think there's enough Blood on the streets for
me to justify saying, oh, we're gonna see a bull market return,
and I Want Blood on the streets, quite frankly.
So I'm willing to rip the head off of this kangaroo is
sacrifice, but what, what oh yeah, I can't go through that.
That's your I'm sorry I understood that to be a
childhood kangaroo it real. But I need to pray to the
financial God that his drone Powell and show hidden was I
blend it sacrifice for the blood on the streets that I hope to
see. Got it, got it, got it.
So wait coming back coming back to you.
I think your question was like, do we need to basic?
Like you said, you are not going to celebrate, you know, large
holders or get the jpmorgan's. Or the black rocks, like
officially being like, yo, Bitcoin is dope because you feel
like the average pleb needs to be needs to have more time to be
able to get into the Bitcoin Market.
Is that a fair characterization? Yeah.
And, and I'll caveat it by saying, like, candidly.
If I got no more Bitcoin ever again, like, I could live
comfortably. I feel like I do, I have to do
with anything because I don't want you to think I want you
doing this because you're like, yeah, yeah.
Rich As Fuck, like don't even trip Doug, but, it's more from
the lens of. If all of a sudden you have
someone like a Michael sailor with half a million Bitcoin, and
you have a company like apple, Tesla Google Microsoft, that
combined to hold another two and a half million Bitcoins then all
of a sudden you start to have just the same issues.
I think that we are seeing our society struggle with today be
Situated even further in a digital age where we're not
going to be as Reliant. I think on.
How do I say this without sounding like a statist without
certain parameters, preventing businesses from taking I think
advantage of everything that they have hoarded for
themselves, you know. I just say like It's kind of
there's nothing we could do to stop anybody from interacting.
You know, it's permissionless. So Fidelity's, Michael sailor,
like the people that understand the value proposition.
First are going to benefit from it, you know.
And when Fidelity gets in it is 34 million individuals brokerage
accounts. That a lot of times its money is
trapped in retirement accounts. It's not like real spot Bitcoin
that they're taking but at least they'll get exposure to the
upside. Adoption continues and and the
price appreciation happens. Like we think it's better that
they have some kind of exposure than nothing.
So those are kind of my two initial points.
It's kind of like silly because we can't stop them from
happening. And then you know there's
benefits to large players getting on your side in terms of
Bitcoin to there's like you have Fidelity on our side.
I mean that's a large player with a ton of resources, both in
DC and and from a capital standpoint, Want to build out
infrastructure for Bitcoin to make the system more robust.
So I guess those are my two kind of like counter points to it,
but I do understand that one of the benefits of a large sidewise
sideways price action and downwards price action is it
does give time for four more individuals to benefit from it
and to benefit from the future price appreciation.
So that's kind of like a, that's a Polish angle to the price
action going down. And I think it's I think it's a
prudent. When I think it's it makes sense
to me and that's why, you know, A lot of educational efforts are
really beneficial right now. If people are Keen to listen to
it, unfortunately a lot of people get into Bitcoin when the
price goes up like crazy. That's just kind of the nature
of the beast but if they're doing it now then they're going
to benefit from it. So it's kind of a win-win there.
P. Your thoughts as you play with
your elephant dick, which by the way, Sam, we love your elephant
dick as well. Yeah, sorry.
I see, I noticed that my Bitcoin is upside down and it just
immediately inspired fear and panic.
I sold all my Bitcoin. Then we bought, it took a tax it
and now I feel silly. But also yeah, I'm going to take
is a completely different reaction Sam.
Tell us again. Why?
Why have you imbibed of the re 20 microphone as opposed to the
standard sm7b? Which we seek you rock?
And there's this chat today. Please relate it back to bitcoin
as well. If you could, I got nothing.
I literally, I asked Alex, who runs the cafe Bitcoin?
I was like, you know, I like substitute for him as a host
them like the back up and I was doing the hosting and I was
getting some feedback that I sounded like shit.
So we need to change that. I've been there brother.
And and then I was just like, yo, I'm going to get exactly
what Alex says and they're like, all right, go Go for it and
solid now. You I am what I am and it's an
art 20, right? Yeah.
The elephant deck?
Yeah, it's, this is the original color.
The sort of like military, correct?
I didn't even think about getting.
Oh my God, I will trade you. This mic in a fucking heartbeat.
I regret having this car, and I talked about it way too much on
the show. The point is look, we are
contrarians Sam. I feel a sense of, you know, I
can patriotism with you. Because everybody uses the sm7b
and you know we're using the re 20s the the old-school crazy
Mike. That sounds better.
Let's go back to my question, right?
You saw some great. It's so good.
As soon as we shift camera angle will rip this mat.
This little sticker off and reverse it around.
It'll look even weirder. We could take you off camera.
We got really used to that for the last four days while you
just hold it stable on us, it all stays at All-State.
So can you just simplify for as Q?
Would say, the smooth brains of my is, what is the expectation
that people? I'll have for this rate for this
potential rate hike and what are the options available to the
FED? Like, what are we kind of?
What are we expect, like yet? What are the, what is the
plethora of options they have? And then what are the impacts of
the various options? They could take.
I think it's probably like basically two or three.
Is that correct? What options are you like?
What are you referring to? Well, people say like 100 100
point B. No, but basis point hike, like,
what are the what are the options that we think are sort
of possible reasons? Hannibal.
And then what impact we expect that to have on the markets?
Well in life, in like a couple sentences?
Like I know we've been talking, we've literally been talking
about this in a deep dive for the last, like, 30 minutes.
But can I change your question just a little bit?
Please do, where are the like we talked a little bit about how
this is going to be sort of a lagging indicator of where the
points of failure are going to be in the economy.
Can you highlight maybe one or two areas of the economy that
you're going to be paying attention to I'll share two of
my own? And obviously unemployment
because that's everything that the FED keeps citing as far as
they're sort of motivation for a lot of things and I'm really
trying to pay attention to just the housing market in general.
That has historically been a nice little leading indicator
for us and Doesn't look pretty to me as someone who's been
looking to buy a house for some time and yes, this does mean
that the Run of Q in his mother's, basement is coming to
an end. Hey guys, this is Q from Bitcoin
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A Bitcoin magazine Pro.com Yeah you know that the options are
basically I mean they could do whatever they want I guess but
like what the likely options are are 75 dips or 100 bits and the
CPI print last week really freaked people out there.
I think a lot of people expected it to be lower than it was but
it came in higher and so a lot of people the expectations for
the FED. High kind of jumped up and the
probabilities increase for the potential of a hundred dips
increase. But I think 75s probably what I
would bet and if that's the case, then you know we're going
to see Continued pressure on really all risk assets.
I believe, right now really any kind of economic indicator that
you look at its it doesn't look good last week, you know, for
instance, consumer sentiment came in at the lowest ever.
Housing affordability is the worst ever.
And as you continue to tighten policy, it just puts further
pressure on on everything because discount rate.
When that goes up the way that they kind of value stocks, it's
probably going to have more pressure to go down.
So if we see an increase in rates, we're likely to see more
pressure on the stock market. I expect that to go down over
time, especially as some of these economic indicators, start
to show up in earnings. And so I'm kind of looking at
two things. Like I'm also look at the
housing market. I think it started to roll over,
it has been rolling over for a while and so there's a lot of
different things you can look at.
You can look at purchase applications every week, you can
look at this the case-shiller price index rolling over.
I like the looking at rents on Zillow.
And so and then the housing affordability index came out
last week and so it was the worst ever like I said.
And so, I like to look at all those things and then as you
kind of take out, broader picture, it kind of tells you
where we're probably heading. And when you look at a broad and
geopolitical risks and all kinds of issues going on, it's it's a
bleak Outlook and I'm not trying to like paint Rosie a Rosy
picture. When there's not one, you know,
Cycles are normal and we're not very used to recessions because
Of the FED coming in to bail, everyone out.
Every time it's happened, but this is normal, and it's
actually healthy for a long-term economy.
And so, I expect this to be kind of longer than people expect.
Honestly. And then, the other thing I'm
looking at is I, like, looking at the move index, which is a
measure of bond volatility, for a couple reasons, it kind of
gives you a measure of kind of the risk in the credit markets.
And then it also the liquidity in the credit markets.
So if it's more volatile, it kind of gives you a sense that
the bond markets more liquid, If the bond markets more liquid, it
shows that there's kind of the economy slowing down, and
there's a lot of risks. And so if we see the bond market
start to really blow up and become very illiquid, you know,
that could be one thing that could cause the FED to Pivot.
But I think maybe that's not coming for a while.
Like I don't think that's really coming and like the next couple
months unless there's some like catastrophic, you know, blow up
by Black Swan kind of thing. Like, that's always a
possibility in this uncertain. An environment but barring that,
you know, I'm kind of just sit. I think things are going to stay
like status quo for a while and we're going to continue to see
downward pressure across risk assets.
I'm going to interrupt real quick to just say we have
official word that it is a 75 basis point rate hike.
So Hi, I've lost track now of how many times did market like
the odds of that fomc calculator that gives us like oh it's 75%
chance of 75 basis points or 25 per 100 or whatever.
I genuinely think that that has been correct every single
meeting this year. Yeah.
And that but and I presented
this question. One time to Dylan and say I am
and it's getting me to a point where I really don't understand.
Why the FED exists if the market is kind of telling the FED what
it wants to be done, and what it's expecting, I understand the
history behind the FED, but the market to very much taking
control over these rate hikes. It seems, is that an accurate
way of depicting, sort of what we've seen transpire over the
course of just this calendar year.
Yeah, I mean why does the FED exist?
The you know, that's a big question and you know, I think
financial markets have like dictated their policy decisions.
Really since Greenspan started to bail everyone out with a
Greenspan, put the FED has basically responded to financial
markets and so I think that's why, you know, these
probabilities the Fed Over the last 30 years, they just
responded to the markets in and just listen to them.
And try not to piss him off too much.
It's been a long time. It's been since Volker since
they like went against the markets expectations and did
what they felt was right with their dual mandates.
So I think it's, that's why these, like, probabilities in
the markets, in the CME probabilities has been so
accurate, because the FED really does look at the markets, like
there's an ongoing joke that after these fed meetings and
they announced the the Monetary policy that they immediately go
back to their Bloomberg Terminals and look at the
markets to see how they're reacting.
So, you know, that's what this, like fed Insider said, a few
months back, and I tend to believe him.
So, you know, I just think that it's become ingrained in their
decision making process. And when really, it's not really
a part of their mandate, but you could say it's a shadow third
mandate, so I think that's why the probabilities are so
accurate. We're gonna pull up an image.
Now of the fomc target rate. Pretty much from 2002, through
2005. And I, I was just looking at
this. And what really surprised me is
the 2023 short of Dot Plot range for our viewers in a second, we
will pull this image up. It essentially shows you each of
the different fed members for the anticipations of where they
expect the rate. To be on each of these years.
And if that's not the case, Sam, you are.
So welcome to tell me. I'm an idiot on my own show
because if I am wrong about that, I'm an idiot.
But it looks as though next year, they're anticipating an
approach to 5% and there's no anticipated slow.
Down until 2024 mind you. These are forecast, these are
projections that always change. I'm a little perplexed and
almost surprised to see such a high number for next year.
My guess, my best guest is they are anticipating a prolonged
level of fed fund rate. Being at this level will bring
inflation lower and in turn. If inflation can get below the
feds fund rate, then they will feel confident that their work
has been successful and they can slowly begin to lower rates and
ie pump liquidity back into the market Sam.
Where did I go wrong? What don't you?
Read. How crazy am I in?
This is the the image we're talking about here.
Okay, conceived before. Yeah, these are just like
expectations. So I actually They're usually
not that accurate so anyone guess?
But you know I think that's what it shows.
Is that this latest CT, I print it just kind of changed a lot of
expectations because it before a lot of people thought that they
would start to Pivot like mid-20 23 and now it's been pushed
back, announcement pushback, and and so what they expect to
happen, not this that they'll raise rates more but that
they'll keep it high or longer and that's where they could run
into problems. Because like the I don't think
the markets can really handle interest rates at these levels.
A long time and that's kind of what these expectations are
saying there's expecting to rampal to raise rates and then
keep them at these levels for an extended period of time.
And I think as like that rolls over and they'll have to
refinance at these higher interest rates, you really start
to see feel pain like in a corporate level, as they try to
roll over their debt. And then they have to pay a lot
more because interest rates are so much higher.
And a lot of these companies are leveraged to the teeth.
A lot of these companies are zombie companies and so the
really struggle with that if they keep keep interest rates at
this level as they continue to reduce their balance sheet with
quantitative tightening. And so it's kind of a double
whammy because not only the financing costs higher but also
they're removing liquidity out of the system at the same time.
And so I think that things would break before that and that's
when real a pivot is going to happen in the pivot will not
happen unless things get really bad and that's right.
When people say a Fed pivots going to happen, it kind of
can't happen until something bad happens right before it because
if you things just stay the status quo.
Right now, like they can take this demand destruction and they
can take another 10-15 percent down on the stock market.
But if things get really bad and unemployment starts to spike and
all these things, kind of bankruptcy start to happen and
all these problems start to happen, then we'll get a pivot
and that'll happen. If they keep interest rates at
this level for a long period of time with these debt levels.
And so that's kind of how I see it.
It's just kind of each time. The CPI Prince remains elevated
and doesn't come down in a meaningful way.
Yeah, I bet you're going to see these iFit tations continue to
increase a little bit and they'll say, okay this is going
to last longer and longer and longer.
But you know, I just can't see a scenario where they can keep
rates at these levels for a long period of time without things
starting to get really challenging for these
businesses. That makes sense.
No, it does. I wonder though and this is your
least favorite Topic in question, but if shit, if you
would entertain me for a moment, we do have midterms in less than
two months now. Do you anticipate any decisions
from either Congress or the white house?
As far as an economic scope is concerned for the sake of just
strengthening their Case to be re-elected, not in any sort of,
this is actually going to help the economy in any way
understanding fully that this is strictly to get more votes,
which I'll be the first to admit was definitely a huge
implication of their decision to provide student loan debt
relief. Yeah, that's what I was going to
say. I feel like they've already done
that. That felt like they did that
with student loans, and then I feel like they're doing that.
Releasing the Strategic petroleum Reserve right now, to
try to keep gas prices though. So it's an emergency for them
because you know, they need the votes.
But really that should only be done in a real Energy.
Emergency right now in the United States at least, you
know, we don't really have that. So you know, it's bad.
There's Rising the gas prices are higher from a couple years
ago, but it's not like we're Europe right now and they are
draining that reserved at a rapid rate to try to You know,
as a political talking point and that's what you see biting gonna
do gas. Prices are so low, they have to
have something because everything else is looking so
good. So you know, I think those two
things, the student loans and the Strategic petroleum Reserve
getting drained. I think that's what you're
seeing and I don't really know if much is going to happen.
Outside of those two things I think are in some again, things
could change really rapidly in this environment.
If something like really bad happened, you probably get
Congress and Kitchens coming out pretty rapidly st.
Stimulus checks, like, we need this, if things really start to
break down, but I don't really see that happening before.
Midterms that's only in what, like, a month or month and a
half or so. So, yeah, I think it already
happened. Q, fair fair.
I was just hoping for, I don't know something to really break
because to your point. I don't think we've reached that
point of Maximum pain at least on this country.
But let's hop on over the pond. We had Putin actually released a
statement or give a speech earlier this morning last night,
to be honest, it was delayed a couple times.
So I have no idea when he actually said these words, but
it looks like based on his speech and the translations, I
was able to read them that they are going to call upon all of
the Russian military members who are in reserves to now come
forward and sort of begin to join the war effort hearing that
Russia is not slowing down. This war efforts giving where
Europe is in their energy crisis.
How A door things about to get in Europe.
What are you paying attention to out of Europe right now?
Yeah. So what I focus on in terms of
Europe is this this energy crisis because kind of worsens a
crisis that was already happening and it's really the
ECB and and how trapped they were compared to other central
banks. They were the slowest to kind of
start raising interest rates. You know, inflation was already
at historic highs in the Eurozone and they were at
negative interest rates since 2014.
And then they have a ton of debt problems specifically in the
peripheral countries, Italy Greece.
Spain. And and so, they're in a tricky
situation because they can't raise rates and without causing
kind of risk, increased risk of a sovereign debt crisis, similar
to what happened in the early 2010's.
And so immediately, when they said they were going to raise
rates, you started to see the spreads between Italian Bonds,
in the German, bonds start to really wide in, and it really
freaked him out. And so, that was just when they
announced that they might raise rates and then they went ahead
with it. They finally raise rates in
July. Bye.
And then they announce some like emergency program that will they
end unlimited, targeted QE2, basically, plug that hole in
Italy as they try to fight the same Battle of fighting
inflation on the other side. And so those are at odds with
each other because they're printing money to keep the
wheels down in Italy. Wow.
They try to fight inflation by raising interest rates and all
of this happened. Wow!
The energy crisis is going on. And when you do, The energy
crisis going on. You have the governments of
Europe subsidizing that. So they're printing money and
giving it to their citizens to help them with the costs, The
increased cost of their energy bills and you can't really blame
them. Like, you know, they're these
people are really struggling and they're trying to prevent a
string of bankruptcies from happening and something really
really much worse from happening but they're at odds with the
Central Bank who are trying to combat inflation.
So this is the problem with Europe.
Because you have a monetary Union but you have governments
that have disparate condom he's and disparate fiscal policies.
And so, even in the last, you know, two weeks I've been trying
to keep track of all this, but you had the UK, UK government,
freeze, gas and electricity bills.
So that's till 2020 for, it's estimated to be 180 billion
dollars or like six percent of their GDP.
And so they're spending you have Germany, basically combined.
They've printed 95 billion euros.
Help their citizens and some of their businesses.
You had Sweden and Finland basically provide guarantees of
thirty three billion euros to utility companies, to prevent
The Faults. You'd Switzerland come out and
say to or their energy producers with about 7 billion dollar
Euros, you had Austria. They there, I think that's 500
euros per year, they're giving to 2024, that's going to cost
them about four billion euros. You had Dutch come out the other
day, do something similar and then he had Grease come out the
other day and that's Gonna cost another billion dollars.
So all of these governments are spending money at a time of
historic inflation. And at a time when the ecb's
trying to raise rates to fight this inflation without causing
the sovereign debt crisis. So I don't mean to laugh.
It's just it's a really tricky situation and it's it's terrible
man. And I see it as the weakest link
in the whole Fiat system and so that's why I've been like really
paying attention to it and then this G crisis that has really
gripped the financial community. And for good reason, you know,
that's just kind of added to all of these problems and so you
know, Joe wasn't all that dude, from Bloomberg, I think he said
it best, he said money printer Gober, so households don't Gober
and that's, I think that's what's happening going into the
winter. And it's puts him in a really
difficult situation. Especially if you're the ECB, I
want to just say because I don't think you're Laughter was like,
in gesture, making fun of, but like this is genuinely, it's
such a scary conversation to have that.
This isn't a random developing nation that you have never heard
of before. This is a whole continent of
Europe. Where let's be honest.
The vast majority of white Americans can trace their
ancestry back to that continent and We are like, I'm almost
curious. What you think.
Like, who is really at fault here?
Because on the one hand, you have the citizens actually
asking for this. You have the citizens asking for
the subsidies asking the government to set step in and
save their businesses, save their energy bills from being
too overwhelming. While at the same time, you have
multiple iterations of The French government.
The Boris Johnson LED UK government, various other
governments, all across Europe were offered opportunities to
sit down and end the war with Russia and Ukraine.
And instead opted to join the US side to continue to add fuel to
the fire. And now they're almost seeing
their citizens say. Hey wait timeout.
We actually can't afford to be in this war because I need to
stay warm and do you think there can be a Breaking Point and a
disconnect in Europe between what the citizens citizens want
and what their government leaders will inevitably do, or
do you think their government leaders will end up caving?
For better or worse, and subsidizing energy costs and
trying to make whatever happens on within their own sort of
jurisdictions appeasable and tolerable while still
propagating this war over in Eastern Europe.
Yeah, well, I think, I think ultimately, the biggest risk for
them is mass, you know, political turmoil, chaos and
civil, unrest. And so the civilians, there's
already been protests, there's been burning of electricity
bills, across Europe, you know? There's a whole campaign in
Europe or in UK called don't pay.
I think don't pay UK that already has like tens of
thousands of signees that there say they're not going to pay
their electricity bills October 1st when they when they're
supposed to spike hundreds of percentages, its percentage
points. So this is already happening and
I think governments will bend the knee to the they're citizens
because that's the biggest risk is civil unrest domestically,
but then they'll have to turn their back on Ukraine or they'll
just try to do both the same time and just even though the
finances don't make sense, they'll try to you know, print
money and do this. That's why, you know, all of
this kind of leads to the same place which is just currency
devaluation of the Euro. And so I think that is the big
risk. So you're already seen it.
You're already seen kind of civil unrest.
And protests and and these European civilians.
They're wondering how we got here but really it's just poor
leadership. Its kind of poor energy policies
over the years. Not considering security, and
resiliency. And in a peacetime where leaders
weren't really considering that if there's one, like benefit of
all this, it will kind of start to shift that mindset towards
that, start to shift the mindset sort.
Okay. Yes, I guess sustainability.
And you know, all these Like inefficient green energies.
Like we also need, you know, nuclear might be a good option
or, you know, it'll kind of shift the mindset because
sometimes I need a crisis to actually wake people up to these
things. And so I think that's another
thing I'd there has been so much Doom and Gloom around Europe
situation for this winter. Like do this?
Is this is it like it's not going to work.
I think it was like way too much that the pendulum shifted way
too much that way in terms of General discourse like this is
only Doom and Gloom. Yes, it's going to be really
Hard. But I think there's a
probability that they get through this winter and that
they've been together, and people are resourceful, people
are strong the human Spirit strong.
But the problem is, I don't see how this changes into the summer
or next winter or the year after that.
And so that's kind of where I'm thinking.
It's like not so much like the next few months it's that these
Dynamics in place in these relationships, they don't seem
to be improving. And so it's hard for me to see a
scenario where this doesn't continue.
And if that's the case, then it's going to be more money
printing. It's going to be more subsidies
and it's going to be more devaluation of the Euro and so
it because it just takes years to get these things back on
track in terms of energy policy and building out the
infrastructure. And so we could be talking about
years of these elevated energy crisis which would just add to
the inflation pressures. And make it more difficult for
the ECB. So, you know, that's kind of,
that's gonna say about that. I think just you know creative
ways of staying warm are also viable options but I don't think
P agreed with me anymore because told me not to say that, but I
still think. Oh, okay, yes, sorry.
I was just letting my head on fire on the side just, you know,
a challenge. I think, like, like, why
couldn't European just do that. Why can't they like themselves
on fire to stay warm this winter here?
I feel like doing that is not actually a viable strategy.
I feel like it only gives you like maybe five seconds of
warmth and then it starts hurting and you have to put it
out. We're talking about much larger.
You know, how do you stay warm as a group of people over a
period of time? I mean you don't have enough,
you know, resources at least it seems like this would be a great
idea to have alternative energy sources or be energy
independent. But no, we decided to listen to
a 16 year old girl about how to handle our energy infrastructure
and an entire continent. Yeah, I will pay, you know,
exactly which button to push to get me off.
All riled up? I don't know.
Sam. I'd love to hear your thoughts.
Like it continues to blow my mind as I said before on the
show. That the average person across
most of the world is absolutely convinced that nuclear energy is
not only the bane of our existence, but definitely like a
tool of Satan to mutate the, you know, the the creatures of this
magical planet and also to you know, feed the fat cats
quote-unquote. I just don't understand because
it is actually such a clean and important way of generating
power as we continue to. Increase the size of our
population. I'm just flabbergasted by the
effectiveness of the pr that has been put out there.
I'm curious if you have any thoughts on that.
Yeah, I agree. I mean I think I'm a big nuclear
proponent think, it's a dense energy resource and it's
reliable. You have reliable base load.
And I think that, I think that the anti-nuclear, I mean, it
stemmed from like, Chernobyl and Fukushima, you know, there's
still they see these things in, it's bad.
But but Also nuclear like it kind of disrupts the oil and gas
industry and the ESG renewable industry.
So it doesn't really have a hobby.
Not a lot of money because it kind of disrupt both of them
right. I mean like in a well
interesting you're saying oil and gas is like deeply invested
would totally make sense. Of course, you got to follow the
incentives. Yeah.
Like like oil gas, there's a lot of benefits of oil gas like in
our products and things. So it when it might go away, but
it'll definitely eat into their product.
To have this like endless bases supply of energy from nuclear.
And so it just seems like you know nuclear has no friends
basically in DC. So how do we get those friends?
How do we create? And maybe if you can just do
like a for our audience, like a brief summary of like the
benefits of nuclear, the unfair characterization that it gets
and why it's all bullshit. Well, I'm not like a nuclear
expert but from my understanding, you know, it's
just, it's a, it's a way to have actually clean, I guess,
zero-carbon energy resource that it provides a reliable base
load. So it's it's not intermittent
like wind or solar which, obviously, sometimes it's sunny,
sometimes it's cloudy. Sometimes it's windy nuclear
allows you to have that base, which is really, really
important to connecting to the electrical grid.
You need that base load. And so nuclear, it does it in a
way. It's really efficient and and
clean and like, people get upset about it, I think because of,
like the waist and all these things, but from my
understanding that's kind of way overblown, especially when you
compare it to some of the waste in these Renewables and, and as
well as oil and gas. So, that's kind of my short
thing. I haven't like, Doug's, super
deep into nuclear. I'd like to one day that might
be good, but, but from my understanding, it seems like the
best alternative we have and the Most one of the most dense
energy resources we have available to us and we're just
turning our back to it and it's strictly from like political
reasons or money reasons or just, you know, not
understanding what it is basically propaganda.
I would agree with that. I mean, I think there's a very
important thing that same, you've highlighted, we talk a
lot about it. It's just who has the ears of
the policymakers in DC. And unfortunately right now
there's just not there's not enough money within the nuclear
system itself to allow, then for someone to be a spokesperson.
Person on their behalf. I almost feel like this is
almost like the perfect. Intersection of Bitcoin and
energy. And it almost feels like the
Bitcoin policy Institute, which is more or less affricates of
Bitcoin and its technology who speak to different policy makers
in DC. This should be a part of their
docket. So to the founders of that, I
hope you're listening because if you're not, I'm just gonna yell,
you're not listening to this. Yeah, yeah.
Do that. I also had a I think there's a
ton Of money that is required to build them to.
So that's a huge point of the two.
There's a lot of like fixed costs and water.
Yeah so that's another kind of like hold up I think I do want
to just I want to ask this because I have a very aggressive
bias when I bring up this and I need someone to bounce it out of
little bits am so sorry, you've drawn.
The Short Straw, you have to balance it this out.
I've been pounding this drum since the beginning of this year
that as Eugene, ping, and Vladimir Putin have been sitting
down with Iran's president, and while, we don't know those
conversation in, it doesn't take a genius to.
Surmise that two adversaries of the u.s. meeting with a
president, who is the leader of a country that has been under
sanctions by the US are most likely asking this President.
How have you guys handled sanctions?
How have you guys survived for, as long as you have under
Western and the u.s. ancient and lo and behold.
Shortly after that, Russia has now been put under sanctions,
we're witnessing some actions being taken by China again.
Taiwan and meanwhile behind the scenes we're seeing deals, get
made between Saudi Arabia China, Russia turkey to release and
sell their oil to the European markets, as well as break and
destroy the Petro dollar and introduce you one dollar.
Russia accepting Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, you had
Iran also So announced that they're accepting
cryptocurrencies primarily Bitcoin to settle International
trades. We're starting to see the slow
end of the strength of US sanctions.
And I'm curious what effect do you think this could have on a
global stage? Let's first start on the energy
side of things, obviously countries like Saudi Arabia,
Iran, and Russia. Old vast amounts of oil and
natural gas as well as the other OPEC nations.
Between Iran alone has over 150 billion barrels of oil for
context again, OPEC plus manufacturers about 20 to 25
million barrels a day. So that's a significant amount
of oil that Iran just has that it could introduced to the
market. All the has happiness sanctions,
go away and oil prices, go down, cost of gas, and electricity
goes down. This really feels like it's
turning into a US sanctions versus the rest of the world
argument. There's a degree of that.
But now my bias is starting to show.
So I'm going to mute myself and unpack, and, rip apart
everything. I've just Well, the economic
sanctions and the seizure of Russian X FX Reserves.
You know, I feel like it was kind of a knee-jerk reaction.
It was like, it's like the weapon of choice that the US has
used over the last decade. Or so there's a book called
treasury Wars, that's pretty good.
That kind of goes over the history of sanctions and how the
treasury has been used as an arm of basically Warfare for the
last decade or so. Now what I, what I think makes
sense is that one of the consequences of doing that?
Is it basically pushes our adversaries together?
It incentivizes them to work together and and so you got
China. Who makes a lot of things who's
been getting oil on the cheap from Russia.
Same thing with India and they're like, this is great, you
know as long as the US doesn't sanction us.
Yeah we're getting too cheap Russian oil, right now.
This is fantastic and then I ran sister part of that, right?
So Iran has been like hey you guys got sanctioned to welcome
to the club. And so now these are
resource-rich countries who were kind of driving together through
our political actions and then the sanctions.
And so you got to be really careful and think about the
long-term consequences of these actions.
And then in terms of the sanctions, you know, They as the
world moves to a more multipolar world multi-currency world world
where you start pricing in these goods and different currencies.
It will make sense that the sanctions will become less
effective. But I think right now people are
kind of under estimating how effective they are on Russia.
You know I think the spike in oil prices has caused a trade
surplus and brought in a lot of money and kind of help them keep
afloat. But the law Longer these
sanctions go on. I think the more damaging they
could become on the Russian economy and then you know, same
thing with Iran and Iran. They're not doing well right
now. There there's like Mass civil
unrest actually came across my timeline this morning since
they've been under sanctions. If Ed Rising unemployment,
they've had, you know, increase inflation.
Drop in World Trade, drop in oil.
Exports their economy shrunk. So it has been effective in the
past. And I think, It will continue to
Be an Effective tool, but it will lose its power as these
countries band together and start to price Goods in
different currencies and that's the natural reaction to these
things. You know, every action has an
equal and opposite reaction and that's what we're seeing happen.
And that should be. That should wake people up
because if these these superpowers or at least China
and then Russia, and they team up and become more friendly
towards one another and then you, Have Iran, which is, you
know, a ton of oil resources, you can kind of see how these
them banding together would be a pretty big, you know, adversary
it would be, they would be a powerful group, to kind of
battle against, for lack of a better word.
And so these are kind of just the natural consequences.
And I don't know if Biden or the administration Administration
really like, thought through this.
They did it so fast like right when it happened, they
immediately sanctions sees the FX Reserves.
And now when they see these things are like, hold up, you
know? So that's kind of how I see it.
I think it's a lack of long-term thinking which is kind of like a
general problem throughout the Fiat world.
What do you mean? They don't have a long enough
time Horizons. I love how.
Yeah, it's the money gonna talk about.
He looks like he's uncircumcised right now.
Yeah, I thought I would look way cooler with my hood up, but I
was horribly mistaken but now I just have to roll with it.
I feel like I brought this on myself and it's my join you.
I mean, I'll make you feel not so much worse.
You have so much worse than I do.
You look Odyssey as bad as you look.
You look better than I did with that Sam.
I got a cracked you because I just saw that we're going to
announce that breaking news right now.
It's pronounced Iran. We're going to unpack this
though. Breaking news that Jesse Powell,
the CEO of Kraken is apparently stepping down.
Holy shit, really? Yeah, that's interesting.
What's that? Vacations over that this is
developing story, were gathering more information.
But I just wanted to sort of pass that headline through I
believe. If I remember the source is, oh
my God, the teacher know that it's Wall.
Street Journal is reporting it. Okay.
So before I give my insane conspiracy, theorist,
lovecraftian, interpretation Sam, what is your thoughts
without knowing anything? I want to hear you're like,
don't do any research, why do you think Jesse Powell stepping
down as CEO of Kraken? You get extra points for the
more deranged is I have such a, it crackin.
Such a weird company because they're like it, do do chicks,
inertia coin, casino, but then Jesse Powell.
He's been a pretty good Steward of Bitcoin and when he goes on
news you know mainstream news shows and stuff like that.
Like he's he knows what he's talking about.
He's a Bitcoin her and I believe that it's just kind of.
It always confused me that it's a huge shift because he also
supported lightning like, you know, he A lot of things for
they even it proved reserves, I think, which was cool.
But so I thought, Jesse Powell was actually a good leader,
especially when you compare him to, I would say his other
competitor, coinbase, and Brian Armstrong, I think Jesse Powell
was a much better advocate for big.
Yeah, and finance. Like, when you compare cracking
financing coinbase, Kraken does a lot of things better and a lot
of things more, right? Let's dig into that boat because
I have like basically 100 maybe more CZ Bots that are just
replying everything. I post on Twitter, what about?
I mean I'll joking aside I think it is actually interesting
topic. Like all right I'm gonna put my
head down. It's too much now.
Sorry give me a second. What is it about?
Cracking that is like when you say that they're doing a better
job of being stewards or just about specifically what does
that mean to you? Just kind of like that they
support Bitcoin developers. They've built lunk lightning
functionality before everyone that had proved reserves in
terms of the message. Their research is top-notch that
they put out around Bitcoin around lightning.
They obviously do other stuff and other cryptocurrencies but
they do a lot more for Bitcoin specifically, and education than
all those other ones, combine the coinbase in finance.
I mean I've dug through coin basis entire research in blog
website and it's garbage compared to Kraken.
And then on the, you know, I just think about this one
interview that Jesse Pol did and it's Buddy.
Adam is like Fox News or Bloomberg or something and they
asked him, like, where's Bitcoins price going?
And he was just like infinity. And you were like, I am all in
on Jesse Powell, it's like infinity.
And then she like, looked at him and you just like, look back and
I'm like that. So that's kind of, I mean, man.
I mean, you know, I, they kind of all about like the free
market and will let people decide.
And, you know, I think they just kind of developed into this
chicken Casino. They're one of the oldest
exchanges. Hadn't really suffered.
I got major hack or anything like that, which is good, you
know, I don't know. They just they do things as best
as you can, I think if you're going to get into the ship going
because you know again, fair enough I want to ask though, is
there a degree of like, Nick Carter and sort of his claims
that Bitcoin focused or Bitcoin only companies cannot be
profitable in the future mind you.
You're talking to three people who work at Bitcoin only
company's total deepest. There is a a heavy bias in this
but like genuinely, like there is a degree in which cracking
and Swan overlap and our competitors.
With cracking offering the shit koi casino.
That Swan does not. I'm just curious if there's a
degree of Truth baked somewhere deep in what Nick Carter said
that, if all you care about is making money, there's more money
if you are engaging with the broader crypto ecosystem than
just being Bitcoin focused. Well I think that's like
completely true that there's more money in the shit coins.
I know that's like can't really even argue that there's amount
of money from crypto VC's compared to like Bitcoin, only
companies, the amount of funding, it's ridiculous and
they make money because of all the marketing and of teas and
and trading that they promote. And and so in that sense, yeah,
they make more money. I don't know what Nick actually
said, but you know Bitcoin. Only companies could definitely
be profitable. It's just maybe not as
profitable as the chicken wing Casino.
Because there's kind of like a moral aspect to it.
Now I also think that Bitcoin companies Will Survive because
we are dead set focused on one thing and doing it really well.
And we think about all like the time suck that happens on these
other companies that offer all these different coins in terms
of their customer service in terms of their what they have to
build to support these other cryptocurrencies, the
educational materials that they have to focus on.
They just get spread, so thin and it's such a Time suck on
their resources and their time and R resources to support all
these cryptocurrencies and it makes it.
So they can't really do Bitcoin that.
Well even though Bitcoin Still Remains a majority of their
revenues are trading Bitcoin compared to these other shit
coins. They can't like focus on,
excessive focus on all these other ones that are actually a
waste of time. And I think long-term the amount
of compliance costs that'll come on these casinos, that list
these tokens will eat into their profits like crazy because, you
know, it's a long-term game. And in terms of the regulatory
risks, They're taking by listing these questionable.
You know, Securities whatever they are, you know, whatever
they are. That was a very generous
characterization and so whatever how you really feel, yeah.
The the amount of compliance costs are going to have in the
future and risks. I mean these are trade-offs that
are made from the very beginning and I think when you're a
Bitcoin only company, you can do it really.
Well, you can be experts in Bitcoin Focus.
All your attention. Give better customer service,
build products, specifically around Bitcoin and and for that
are It's like that. And so we also attract clients
that are Bitcoin, only it matters to them that we are only
Bitcoin only like from it from a moral standpoint and from what
they believe in. And I think more and more people
will come to that, not only from the information, asymmetry like
more people will learn about what Bitcoin is and they'll
appreciate the mission but also as they get burned and shit
coins they'll like the hold a grudge against these platforms
that that's sold them. Whatever, you know, come rocket
and then come to a Bitcoin only company because they'll be like,
all right, these guys were actually had their best interest
in mind. And we're just trying to teach
people about Bitcoin and so, and get people to take their own
keys and all these things. So that's not.
So, if you don't anyone that that quote unquote invested in
come rock, it actually was like, this is a solid investment.
I'm here to, I'm here to kind of help people protect them and
tell me that he thought come Rock.
He was gonna Like the next big thing, never know, but Daddy
would I? Yeah, yeah, of course, you for
your friend, didn't eat them sorry.
But the question is, like, do you think that even goes, anyone
who is like, I'm buying come rocket?
It was like, this is they were be the future of Finance.
Yeah, well mate, I mean, those are the sorriest ones, but I
think it's like, this is the next dose.
This is going. Well, I was my hands smell like
burning hair right now. I just wanna that's your own
fault. Like a cop.
I give you no permission. Pity an award, you know points
for causing yourself paying in something like to be honest.
You sound like a shit Corner. He's mad.
He got run from you know I don't really think you're being silly
thing or shit coining. By letting my hands on fire off
camera, trying to get the perfect shot.
I mean while you guys get is like some like bullshit.
Same, I want to ask you a serious question, Mary fuck kill
Jerome. Powell Janet Yellen Augustus
Carson's Agustin Carson's the last one.
Yeah, hard that Christine Lagarde.
You can throw in there as like a fourth option.
If you go on I definitely married room pal.
Yes, you nail, good. Good grief.
That's that is the right answer. Although, I definitely I guess I
had fun, Janet Yellen, probably killed karstens, just because
I'm a straight guy. But, honestly, I have a very I
really, really dislike Jenny Ellen.
I just, I think she's, like, the epitome of failing upwards,
Janet Yellen her Elizabeth Warren.
Who do you hate more? Jenny Ellen, it's interesting.
And what do you say, like epitome of failing upward?
I mean, Like, is there any other way to be a politician than to
do something wrong and somehow still get positive credit for
it? I mean, this is actually, I get
really pissed off about the lack of accountability, but in more
General about, let's go. This is my favorite thing to
talk about. Like, so wait before we shift
over to like a real, a real thing.
I just want to acknowledge like you fucking nailed the answer to
that question. You took a very serious question
and you answered appropriately. Well, there you go.
Well, let's talk about accountability.
Well, I guess I'm more like less more talking about Central
Bankers than politicians or economists in general.
There's no accountability. You know, you can be so freaking
wrong and it's like nobody cares.
They just forget about it after three months but I don't forget
about it. And I've been keeping track of
Janet Yellen, what she's been saying and I've read it books in
the past from when she was the San Francisco fed president and
how freaking wrong she's all the time like She is batting like
you know I don't even know under one but really not 300 under
100. She's and then she's like
suddenly fails upwards to become the treasury secretary likely
the most important role in and in terms of like managing our
country's finances and it's just it's mind-boggling to me, it
really is. But it just shows that this is
more about not competence or the ability to do the job.
It's more about Connections. And whether she's gonna go along
with what the politicians want. It's not about like, yeah, she's
going to be really good for the economy.
It's more. Like she's gonna be really good
for this Administration, so let's get her in here.
And, and so, it's a really big problem with Janet Yellen.
She's done a lot of harm, a lot of things have where she should
have been on it. So San Francisco fed perfect
example, about the housing crisis, like happened in her
backyard. It started kind of in California
in San Francisco and He's the one in like 2005 2006 saying
that everything looked fine. She's also a labor Economist and
so when things were going over in the recession, she'd kind of
calm everyone down saying like no labor strong, then, you know,
suddenly unemployment spikes like crazy to the highest it's
ever been. And again, then she becomes the
FED fed chairman. So that's what I mean, when she
says, she just fails upwards, but she has great models
apparently, so they just love her.
So, anyway, that's my Janet Yellen rent, not a fan.
I think she's a moron. And I think she needs to retire
ASAP because she's doing a terrible job and that goes for
all these old politicians and old Central bank's right to ask
I was like, wait wait wait time out.
There's a lot more than just changed a liar.
Yeah just please require like go go play, Bingo, go chill out, go
drink some sweet tea, like you guys.
Thanks for your service. We're doing with the porch and
died, like a hungry as old person, I guess.
So there's a good life to be had all your friends are doing.
Just go chill out. You don't need to be in charge
of everything right now. That's so I actually disagree
with that. None of their friends are doing
it. They're only friends are in DC
and they're all friends with each other.
So it's like, this is the only time we have to hang out with
one another because if I don't get reelected, I'm never going
to see your bitch ass like genuine real conversation that
Nancy Pelosi has had with Mitch McConnell is Mitch, my guy.
We can't hang anymore. If I don't get reelected.
So make sure the Republicans either put forward like the
worst candidate Amana imaginable.
So I get reelected or just Put anyone at all.
So I get reelected. We keep like, fucking around in
DC, but like my short list of everyone who needs to be
retired. And then, like, you guys have
seen the Christopher Nolan Batman Trilogy, right?
It's over 10 years old. So if you've never seen it, I
spell something I don't really give a fuck.
But you know, that scene in the third one after like, you know,
Gotham like gets destroyed by Bain and you have the The
Scarecrow character who is now like return as the judge and
they're sort of trying all these people I want that.
I want a fucking like crazy apocalyptic type of jury and
court case where people like Janet Yellen and Elizabeth
Warren and Nancy Pelosi and Mitch McConnell and Lindsey
Graham and Ted Cruz and Chuck Schumer and just all of these
deplorable 's who have leached Off of our tax dollars for
longer than I've been a fucking live and have become
millionaires by leaching off of our tax dollars.
Like Dianne Feinstein is 108 years old and somehow still
running for re-election in the state of California.
I am only going to vote for one position this year and it's
going to be to make sure she doesn't get reelected in his
fucking State. Because my God, how does a woman
who has been living in Washington DC for longer than
I've been? Alive.
No, I need as a citizen of California, she doesn't, she
knows more with the people who live in the, not a state, state
of Washington, d.c. no than she does what the people in her own
home, state need and want. But I don't know, I just hate
old people, I think. Hey well that was that was a
bold, very blanket statement. Like if we get Joe Biden, be
Donald Trump again to fucking see.
Now 80 year olds running for president.
I'm in a rage quit the u.s. I will rage quit.
Yeah you know people say like voting doesn't do anything like
vote with your feet and you know I kind of understand that.
It's just when the older populations, the voting Bloc
just votes more than the younger one.
Like and so they're going to keep voting in the people that
are gonna be on their side with things in terms of not reducing
entitlements and the older block will Always vote in their own
generation. So what's good?
I mean the younger generation could really if they just went
out and voted more, maybe we could vote these old people out
and then maybe get some like terms of its or something.
But I just hate to me it's like it's insane to me because A lot
of them like just, you know, I don't wish this on any of them.
Personally, you know, at May disagree with them, but like, a
lot of them are going to pass away like soon just like nature.
And so, how could they care about?
Like, what's going on? Even like these bills that
they're passing nowadays? Like they might not even see the
fruition of them. And that's just like,
mind-boggling to me. And so you're kind of you're not
up to the times. You don't probably understand
technology or anything of what, where things are headed because
you don't care. That mean you're not going to be
there. So I just think there's
something very wrong with it and I think there needs to be term
limits and I've worked with the old people man, and like it's
true that your mental capacity goes down.
People with no accountability who just do what they want and
then make the young people deal with the consequences of their
action. But I also there's a degree of
almost foolish optimism. I've think I've concluded when
it comes to the idea of introducing term limits because
really what we're asking is the powers that be to inhibit their
own powers and put sort of Like, I'll actually were way too
powerful. So I'm going to give up some of
my power and control by introducing this or like another
thing. I love to point out in sight
while we talk about inflation, a lot on bitcoin networks.
And you hear a lot of conversations about what the
fuck happened in 1971 and gold standard and u.s. becoming a
global Reserve currency. The thing I want to highlight
and point out is that members of Congress, vote themselves, they
get to vote on whether or not they get a raise.
And let me, let me ask you guys a serious question.
If you were asked by your boss, like if David Bailey just ask
p&i. Hey, do you guys think you
should get a raise? Let me tell you D be you do not
pay us nearly enough. First off second off thank you
so much for this opportunity. I love it.
So grateful for it third, of course I'm going to vote for a
fucking raise for myself and guess what Congress has done
exactly that. Since the end of World War Two,
they have only ever kept their salaries the same or giving
themselves a raise the Time. They they actually took a pay
cut, was during the Great Depression.
So not even during the 2007 great financial crisis.
Not even during the fucking covid.
Recession did Congress sit there and say hey maybe we should
actually not be taking so much tax dollars and putting them in
our own pocket. Now mind you I want to ask the
other side of this coin in theory.
These are people who are leading the charge on the global stage
of making policy decisions for the hole.
Country. And quite possibly, the whole
world is a result. Should they actually be paid a
premium to be making these types of decisions?
Knowing well, that they haven't really made the right decision
in a hundred. And or I guess I'd argue a
hundred years was the last time we made a right decision in this
country, I'm cured now. Now that right now I'll say 50
years, 40. 45 years ago, Civil Rights Movement.
Mmm. JFK LBJ technically.
Technically LBJ. Yeah.
That that's the last right decision.
I think this country has made. I'm just trying to think of it.
Another one, please? No.
I like like stop me like between 1971 or 19.
When was it 65? I believe 66 somewhere in the
60s that decision was made since then not a single decision are
covered. Government has made is actually
good and if we want to, I don't know.
Hold our government officials to certain standard Maybe we just
fucking cut their pay. Yeah, you want you want to stay
in power forever? Well, guess what?
Buddy, you only get the federal minimum wage.
Yeah, we'll see how many people stay in office then but I
actually don't know that. Can you do that?
I don't know how that you said they vote on.
It, would that have to come from a good executive order, or
something like this house? You, if there's an executive
order that went down, say Biden said right now, hey you can only
serve two terms and Senate and House and your pay is now
Stopped at 100K year, an executive order can get
overturned with a 75% vote. And, again, I ask you, do we
really think the people who get to decide themselves, oh, if I
vote nay on this decision, I get to keep my salary and my job,
the way it is, or if I vote for this decision getting made, I
have to take a pay cut and I probably gonna have to find a
new job very soon. Well, you'll probably get people
who end up in office who actually care about it.
So, yeah, I think that would be an outcome.
It's not about money. Yeah.
Unless I just literally power-hungry, which could be
really bad is. So a lot more of them than we
want to admit. Say, I'm I know you have a hard
stop. I want to give you the final
word and comment on just anything we haven't yet.
Discussed shill all that. You need to Shilla.
Tell everyone, how they can keep up to date with your witty
banter on the twittersphere. Yeah, you know, I would just
say, you know, I just expect things to continue to be kind of
put pressure on the price of Bitcoin.
Just the general macro you know, I don't know if we've had like
the liquidity event that needs to happen in the broader markets
to bring on a pivot or anything like that.
So I think people should just expect kind of the status quo
and continued continued volatility so that's just what
I'll say. About the market terms of like
myself. You know, I work at Swan so you
could go check out my stuff on blog, I write for our Swan
private. So swamp privates just a
concierge service for high, net worth individuals?
I write the research that comes out every month.
If you're interested in that we do all kinds of services.
You know, if you have trust Tire Man accounts, you know anything,
if your business you can check out some private and you can hit
me up, my dams are open on Twitter at Sam.
Callaghan sa MCA lah. And it just got to give a shout
out to You know swans throw in a conference Pacific Bitcoin
conference in LA in November I think it's going to be a good
time. It's gonna be a party, we got
some great speakers, it's a good time to get out in the warm
weather in the winter time so you can go check out that if
you're interested in maybe purchasing a ticket or anything
and and yeah. So that's my thing.
So you can check me out. I'm on Twitter all the time.
So just Sam kalla-nohra my Twitter handle.
So you're gonna hang out in l.a., yeah, yeah, dude, I'm
looking forward to hanging in La.
It'll be Fine, we could time. Thank you.
As always for joining us. Ladies and gentlemen, it is that
time of week. We are going to cut to a
commercial break in just a moment for a new episode of fed
watch. I do want to give a little
caveat heads up, I'm going to go and hop on over to Twitter
spaces. The fomc press conference.
I believe has started or is about to start.
And then from there, we will have an ongoing discussion on
Twitter spaces about this. Yes, the pharmacy.
Any press conference as has kicked off, there is a specific
Bitcoin Compass. I do want to remind anyone over
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