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three for most people turned on 
SPF and ft x and that whole 

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operation in the coming in the 
in the previous two weeks. 

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But there's still a mainstream 
narrative that it's somehow a 

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result of incompetence and more.
So this story should be if FTX 

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lost 3.7 billion. 
And before 2020, to even or 

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like, arrived, during the 
greatest up only everything 

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speculative bull market and 
history never mind for crypto 

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but just anything and everything
where crypto had you know Salon 

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ago from $3 to 280 $250 and all 
of these worthless scam tokens 

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that they gave themselves 
inside, allocations to serum map

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socks. 
EV Solana ecosystem coins, that 

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had fully diluted valuations of 
tens of billions of dollars at 

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the top and they had all these 
inside allocations to them. 

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If they lost 3.7 billion in that
year, then they were 

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fraudulently, losing money, 
spending it on themselves, 

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laundering it. 
However you want to think of 

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this. 
It wasn't incompetence and and 

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it was actually extremely 
malicious like early on genya. 

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What's up man? 
This is gonna be fun. 

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What's up going? 
How are you dude? 

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So did he just see the so FTX 
and I'll meet a lost 3.7 billion

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and yeah on that basis in 2021. 
I People just, I mean, really 

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ultimately, it was just a Ponzi 
ran out of fuel, right? 

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But yeah, I'm to lose like as 
everyone had this assumption 

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that like, you know, they were 
smartest guys in the room, this 

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Quant trading firm and mighty 
wizkid's. 

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The mainstream narrative is 
still, you know, hey the j.p. 

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Morgan guy like got unlucky, you
know, you took a big bet, roll 

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the dice and missed and I think 
it's more. 

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So needs to be looked at as like
this was a long con not even 

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long. 
Like, I mean, you know, started 

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in 2018, right? 
20 2017 2018 and and now we're 

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just seeing the details of it 
all. 

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Just get unraveled. 
Yeah, let's get it. 

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It's pretty wild. 
I mean, you know, the 

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estimations of the amount of 
money lost, like, it's funny. 

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Everyone kind of has their own 
versions of this and their own 

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kind of calculations, but, you 
know, the quick back of the 

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napkin math. 
If you just look at kind of bare

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bones is, you know, almost what 
is it two billion in equity 

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financing from Venture was 
raised? 

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Then you have to factor in 
something in the order of 16 

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billion in custom closets and 
actual crypto assets. 

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Then, Have to factor in all of 
their pnl from like 2018, right?

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So all of that was wiped out as 
well, plus the pnl of Alameda. 

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So I mean we're looking at like 
just those numbers alone never 

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wanted anything else is like 
north of 20, 25 billion dollars.

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Just evaporated. 
Which is, you know, that's a, 

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that's a hell of a number. 
Yeah, it's pretty, pretty, not 

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funny, maybe ironic maybe sad 
that a lot of, you know, we had 

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this this huge speculative 
excess crypto bull market in 

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hindsight right and then Bitcoin
Also, let's like let's not 

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pretend that it doesn't also 
have we just might I think 

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everyone you know many people 
listening me like yeah. 

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Like this thing isn't going 
anywhere despite no matter what 

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the price action does, like big 
thing is here to stay. 

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It also has like, like when I 
like when I say, like, you know,

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and I start harping on these 
Those Bitcoin definitely also 

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has its own kind of speculative,
you know premium at times to put

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it, put it lightly but in terms 
of like, you know, the L1 trade,

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defy, summer, 2.0, Soul summer. 
Yeah. 

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All of these narratives use 
crypto hedge funds that were 

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like a brilliant, you know, 
quote unquote in 2021 right. 

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You know. 
There's there's entity startups 

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like like like all of these 
things and then to realize it 

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was it was basically just like 
this circle. 

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Between like three or four 
counterparties recycling, like, 

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maybe 5 5 to 10 billion dollars 
of real money? 

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It's you know it's pretty wild 
to think about maybe that was an

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underestimation but like that's 
in a simple simple manner like 

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kind of what happened. 
Yeah, and it's funny to us, if I

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recall correctly there was there
was this, since at the Bitcoin 

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2021 the conference in Miami, 
you guys held where there was a 

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got this juxtaposition between 
Caitlin Long who was talking 

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about the Perils of love. 
Courage. 

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And then like shortly 
thereafter. 

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Sam was like touting Leverage is
like the greatest thing ever and

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you know, just it's just like a 
funny juxtaposition given, you 

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know, kind of how things played 
out both funny and sad. 

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But, you know, it's pretty 
remarkable to see how this 

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unwinding of these, you know, 
intertwined relationships 

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between lenders and exchanges 
and market makers and token 

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projects. 
It's just turned into like the 

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most insane catastrophe. 
And like, I've been around this 

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space since, you know, 2012, 
2013 and have had a front row 

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seat to most of these collapses 
and, and unwinds. 

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And like, my God, this is like, 
the most insane thing I've ever 

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seen in my life. 
So Jenny. 

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Yeah, we we've been kind of 
talking back and forth on 

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Twitter for not even know maybe 
nine months now. 

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We're so when magazine and 
bitten ex had had an official 

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partnership that, you know, we 
kind of worked out, but I 

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remember pretty distinctly you, 
we were dming in jeez. 

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What was a June or whatever? 
Right after directly after The 

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the UST online, the Luna and 
wind and you, we called me on 

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the phone and I think I just 
gotten back from Premier up like

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a day before and I was feeling 
pretty jet-lagged. 

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We hop on the phone for like, 30
minutes and you were like, man, 

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it's it's pretty much over and I
was like what do you mean? 

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Dude? 
And like and I've got a bunch of

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like studying and you know, 
monetary history, Financial 

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history. 
Like I think pretty good 

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understanding of like economic 
system, but I hadn't really 

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thought of it in the way of 
like, oh my God, there's a 

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massive amount of impairment. 
It until you sparked. 

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The idea I had like, dude, there
is a days and this was before 

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3ic, right? 
This was before all that 

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happened and you're like there 
are so many funds and so many 

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desks. 
Yeah. 

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And and there and they're all 
were dipping their hand in the 

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cookie jar of the UST anchor 
protocol Ponzi. 

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Yeah. 
And and, and I remember, just 

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kind of like just being like, Oh
my God. 

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It is and, you know, like I feel
like I've been a pretty like, 

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Pretty pretty much a doom poster
since since all that happened, 

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really, you know, make no 
mistake, but you were one of the

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I remember that phone call just 
various distinctly and damn man.

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It's been, you know, it's been 
quite the daisy chain. 

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Yeah, it's, you know, the I 
think the interesting thing is, 

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you know, I mean, look, I have a
privileged kind of perspective 

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on this in that. 
Like, you know, I work at one of

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the largest exchanges and I've 
been around the block and yeah, 

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have a good relationship to kind
of understand the General market

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structure of this. 
So I, it makes Cents more to me 

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than it does to people that are 
Outsiders. 

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But, you know, you have to, you 
have to understand. 

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It's like you have, you have a 
very small subset of actors that

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can move size in this ecosystem,
right? 

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And when they're, all moving 
size on the same bets in the 

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same trades, you have to wonder,
like, what can the collateral 

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damage be if that trade reverses
and goes in the opposite 

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direction and you know, 
unfortunately this entire like, 

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wow, Whatever 8 months, 9 months
is been perfect. 

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Textbook example, of the type of
unwind and violent unwinding 

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that can happen when you have 
just this interconnected web of 

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people doing, you know, more or 
less the same thing, right? 

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Most of these guys were punting 
long on, you know, both, you 

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know, both on bitcoin. 
And then on like more, you know,

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wildly speculative trades. 
Like, you know, UST and farming,

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the anchor protocol yields, 
which is absolutely insane. 

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And, you know, and obviously All
that kind of came crashing down.

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I think, you know, the more, 
obviously, the more kind of dark

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piece of this whole puzzle is 
just seeing how how desperate 

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some people get when things 
start to unwind and they're just

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trying to plug holes left, right
and center, right? 

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00:08:57,300 --> 00:09:00,500
And then I think FTX obviously 
was, you know, the on the 

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receiving end of that the jury 
still out whether or not, you 

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00:09:03,808 --> 00:09:06,800
know, this was a long con or, 
you know, how long this has been

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going on for, but you have to 
imagine that like, Alameda 8 

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shit in May and probably they 
were punting long on on what's 

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it called on Luna, and probably 
a bunch of other things. 

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Took huge losses and one of the 
things you guys have to remember

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too is that because Alameda is 
one of the primary market makers

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for FTX, they are obligated to 
provide liquidity for trading on

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the exchange and whether or not,
you know, things are going up or

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down. 
So they're probably eating shit 

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on both sides but there were 
losing billions and then they 

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had to, they have to Backstop 
the liquidity and they were 

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00:09:41,600 --> 00:09:43,800
probably using even more in the 
process. 

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00:09:43,800 --> 00:09:47,400
And so you know, my by my 
estimation just looking at like 

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the the rough time lines. 
It looks like they probably went

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bust, you know in may like June 
at the latest and then, and then

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Sam probably, you know, 
attempted to fill in these holes

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that kept getting bigger since 
then. 

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00:10:01,700 --> 00:10:03,800
And I think, obviously, we've 
all kind of come to the same 

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00:10:03,800 --> 00:10:06,000
conclusion that, you know, for 
example, the Voyager and block 

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fight deals, were were desperate
attempt to plug in those holes. 

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00:10:10,200 --> 00:10:14,400
And, you know, it's just, it's 
crazy this whole thing so nuts. 

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00:10:16,600 --> 00:10:18,200
Yeah. 
It's I mean it's certainly 

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something and I, you know, 
despite how boring Bitcoin is at

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a protocol level. 
I mean, I really don't lie. 

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Reason I follow half of this 
nonsense and really only play 

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00:10:28,400 --> 00:10:32,500
altcoins on the short side Lee 
is because the hole is whole 

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00:10:32,500 --> 00:10:34,400
Industries cross-collateralized,
right? 

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00:10:34,500 --> 00:10:37,400
And so like, yeah ftt, 
imploding. 

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00:10:37,400 --> 00:10:40,600
Because these guys literally 
like, you know, pointed out 

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essentially implicitly that they
were levered to the tits against

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00:10:43,300 --> 00:10:45,600
it at a certain price level, 
that matters to the Bitcoin 

194
00:10:45,600 --> 00:10:48,900
exchange rate. 
Only enough like UST, imploding 

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00:10:49,200 --> 00:10:51,400
and Luna and floating and I 
guess they directly sold like 

196
00:10:51,400 --> 00:10:54,800
80,000 Bitcoin or so. 
But like this whole garbage a 

197
00:10:54,808 --> 00:10:57,700
liquid, you know, levered beta 
industry like these 

198
00:10:57,700 --> 00:10:59,800
quote-unquote assets, right? 
Where like people believe the 

199
00:10:59,800 --> 00:11:03,100
story and reflexive bull market,
where there's no marginal 

200
00:11:03,100 --> 00:11:07,300
Sellers and, you know, the the 
money machine is printing and 

201
00:11:07,500 --> 00:11:10,000
people are taking their crypto 
collateral to buy more crypto 

202
00:11:10,400 --> 00:11:12,600
like it works then. 
But when you know, there's no 

203
00:11:12,600 --> 00:11:17,100
structural buyers, any of this 
stuff except really Like there's

204
00:11:17,100 --> 00:11:20,200
not really a passive investment 
crowd for anything in crypto, 

205
00:11:20,400 --> 00:11:23,000
accept Bitcoin, right? 
Like the hollers of Last Resort 

206
00:11:23,000 --> 00:11:27,000
inspires The Last Resort like 
the Bitcoin, you know, site like

207
00:11:27,000 --> 00:11:30,200
a Cycle Theory or not Cycle 
Theory, but like the Bitcoin are

208
00:11:30,200 --> 00:11:33,000
would be like, you know, if it 
goes to 12 K and you showed it 

209
00:11:33,000 --> 00:11:36,700
to him after 2017. 
And yeah, they comb it down 85%.

210
00:11:36,900 --> 00:11:38,100
It literally does it every bear 
market. 

211
00:11:38,100 --> 00:11:41,200
Like there's no surprises here. 
And this time, you know, I think

212
00:11:41,200 --> 00:11:44,500
there was there's broad belief 
and even even personally in the 

213
00:11:44,500 --> 00:11:47,400
moment right was like, oh, maybe
Time is different, right? 

214
00:11:47,400 --> 00:11:49,200
Like corporate adoption all 
these things. 

215
00:11:49,600 --> 00:11:51,800
And ultimately like whether it 
was the fault of Bitcoin, it is 

216
00:11:51,808 --> 00:11:54,700
speculation or the macro. 
I think it's all really tied and

217
00:11:54,700 --> 00:11:58,600
the crypto kind of collateral 
and all of the stuff that we've 

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00:11:58,600 --> 00:12:03,000
been covering with the three 
Arrows with Alameda with f2u, 

219
00:12:03,000 --> 00:12:05,700
heck with Luna kind of being 
like this last gasp that like a 

220
00:12:05,708 --> 00:12:07,600
bull market. 
But if you remember, Luna did 

221
00:12:07,600 --> 00:12:12,000
top and November September UST, 
and Luna whatever they topped in

222
00:12:12,000 --> 00:12:14,500
like April, right? 
So, that was just like, there's,

223
00:12:14,500 --> 00:12:16,200
like, 50 billion dollars of 
like, net liquid. 

224
00:12:16,300 --> 00:12:19,600
Ade in the crypto ecosystem, 
that was just basically a 

225
00:12:19,600 --> 00:12:21,200
financial perpetual motion 
machine. 

226
00:12:21,200 --> 00:12:24,300
So like that imploded and it 
just started off this like you 

227
00:12:24,300 --> 00:12:27,300
know this like it's like the 
funny thing is this your script 

228
00:12:27,300 --> 00:12:29,500
of people are just you know 
Market participants in general. 

229
00:12:29,500 --> 00:12:32,700
That have said there's been four
separate black swans in the last

230
00:12:32,700 --> 00:12:35,800
year. 
It's like no black swans. 

231
00:12:35,800 --> 00:12:39,100
Like is on for seen positive 
thing that like no one could 

232
00:12:39,100 --> 00:12:42,500
have possibly seen coming and 
the reality is like these things

233
00:12:42,500 --> 00:12:46,300
were all, you know predictable 
or more likely to happen. 

234
00:12:46,400 --> 00:12:48,400
Even after the first one also, 
just want to. 

235
00:12:48,400 --> 00:12:51,600
I seen that is in the speakers. 
How's it going man? 

236
00:12:51,600 --> 00:12:54,000
I'm I know Jenny and I have been
back and forth. 

237
00:12:54,000 --> 00:12:58,000
How you feeling? 
Just keep thinking back to 

238
00:12:58,000 --> 00:13:02,100
lessons learned that I thought 
we learned in 2017 and 2018 and 

239
00:13:02,100 --> 00:13:04,900
sadly, I guess. 
No, I guess we did not, you 

240
00:13:04,900 --> 00:13:08,200
know, we had that old cliche of 
saying, the capitulations are 

241
00:13:08,200 --> 00:13:12,300
all the same and only the names 
change or, you know, do 

242
00:13:12,300 --> 00:13:14,400
liquidation. 
But anyway, I'm just saying 

243
00:13:14,400 --> 00:13:16,700
that. 
Back in back. 

244
00:13:16,700 --> 00:13:19,900
Then, you know when when you 
head retail bidding every single

245
00:13:19,900 --> 00:13:22,800
silly Ico, I thought we all 
learned our lesson that these 

246
00:13:22,800 --> 00:13:25,200
are worthless and we're not 
going to do that again. 

247
00:13:25,600 --> 00:13:28,900
And then this time around, no 
never mind. 

248
00:13:28,900 --> 00:13:31,200
It's just the bigger players 
that are getting higher than 

249
00:13:31,200 --> 00:13:35,600
their own Supply and are looking
at the market cat going up and 

250
00:13:35,600 --> 00:13:37,700
equating that to some sort of 
success. 

251
00:13:37,800 --> 00:13:40,400
And as a Jenny I just pointed 
out like like they're just 

252
00:13:40,700 --> 00:13:42,400
they're just building on top of 
each other. 

253
00:13:43,100 --> 00:13:45,800
But then, at a certain point 
when they all need, To race for 

254
00:13:45,800 --> 00:13:49,200
the exit door, only so many of 
them can fit through to 

255
00:13:49,200 --> 00:13:52,400
catastrophic results as we saw 
with Luna UST. 

256
00:13:53,000 --> 00:13:59,500
And I mean, I feel like I kind 
of owe 3ac an apology, a slight 

257
00:13:59,500 --> 00:14:02,800
apology, wherever they are in 
the world because we all were 

258
00:14:02,800 --> 00:14:05,700
making fun of like, wow, they 
believe their own Super Cycle 

259
00:14:05,700 --> 00:14:09,900
hype and and I'm not giving him 
a pass on how much fraud and how

260
00:14:09,900 --> 00:14:12,000
much money they stole. 
But while they all believe 

261
00:14:12,000 --> 00:14:14,900
they're super cycle, hype seems 
like everyone else did, too. 

262
00:14:15,300 --> 00:14:19,500
Seems like all these other 
smaller firms, and funds were, 

263
00:14:19,500 --> 00:14:22,600
you know, repeating the same 
hope, IAM Mantra to. 

264
00:14:22,700 --> 00:14:26,100
I'm just so shocked. 
I'm so surprised, but I don't 

265
00:14:26,100 --> 00:14:27,400
know. 
Here we are again, wearing the 

266
00:14:27,400 --> 00:14:32,200
same lessons. 
Yeah, one one, one quick thing. 

267
00:14:32,200 --> 00:14:34,800
Let me just jump in real quick 
on this point about, you know, 

268
00:14:34,800 --> 00:14:38,500
everyone always thinking that 
there's, there's always someone 

269
00:14:38,500 --> 00:14:42,000
smarter in the room and Alameda 
was always touted as like, you 

270
00:14:42,000 --> 00:14:44,500
know, they're they're like top 
dogs and you know, they're 

271
00:14:44,500 --> 00:14:46,500
killing it. 
And you know, just one of the 

272
00:14:46,500 --> 00:14:49,300
best liquidity providers are 
market makers in the world and 

273
00:14:49,300 --> 00:14:51,100
you know what, maybe that was 
the case. 

274
00:14:51,200 --> 00:14:53,900
You know, for some time I 
remember getting introduced a, 

275
00:14:53,908 --> 00:14:56,400
that's the team and, you know, 
just their names coming across 

276
00:14:56,400 --> 00:14:59,000
my desk and 20 18 and 19. 
And you know what? 

277
00:14:59,000 --> 00:15:02,600
I'm sure there was probably some
period of time where they made a

278
00:15:02,600 --> 00:15:05,500
shitload of money and maybe they
actually did do the, you know, 

279
00:15:05,500 --> 00:15:08,800
the, the Japan are been in the 
kimchi premium are which by the 

280
00:15:08,800 --> 00:15:12,300
way is was very hard to do but, 
you know, that's such a made-up 

281
00:15:12,300 --> 00:15:17,300
story. 
It's three is three years old 

282
00:15:17,300 --> 00:15:21,500
how I mean I'm sure they blew 
that that's the small gains so 

283
00:15:21,500 --> 00:15:23,800
long ago. 
Oh, 100%. 

284
00:15:23,800 --> 00:15:27,000
So like that trade in order to, 
in order to do the kin to you 

285
00:15:27,000 --> 00:15:30,000
are betrayed, you would have had
to do the, the trade on two 

286
00:15:30,000 --> 00:15:32,300
legs. 
One leg in the u.s. one, like in

287
00:15:32,300 --> 00:15:35,800
Korea, and in Korea to do that 
in order to have access to any 

288
00:15:35,800 --> 00:15:38,700
Fiat, there you have to have 
someone natively from, they're 

289
00:15:38,800 --> 00:15:41,500
executing the trade, right? 
So that's that was one. 

290
00:15:41,500 --> 00:15:44,100
That was one kind of sticking 
point than the Japan ARB. 

291
00:15:44,100 --> 00:15:45,100
Yeah, they're talking about 
moving. 

292
00:15:45,300 --> 00:15:48,900
Tens of millions a week, like, 
I'm not sure, I know of any Bank

293
00:15:48,900 --> 00:15:51,200
in Japan would allow some 
foreigners to come in and do 

294
00:15:51,200 --> 00:15:53,500
that. 
That's a drop of a hat. 

295
00:15:53,500 --> 00:15:56,300
So, you know, there's definitely
questions around how much they, 

296
00:15:56,300 --> 00:15:59,500
actually squeezed out of that 
ARB but the point I'm trying to 

297
00:15:59,500 --> 00:16:01,800
make is that like, you know, 
yes, they may even get Traders 

298
00:16:01,800 --> 00:16:05,300
for some time. 
But for sure the edge wore off 

299
00:16:05,300 --> 00:16:08,700
as the bigger institutions came 
in and the high frequency 

300
00:16:08,700 --> 00:16:12,600
trading tribes many from Chicago
and many from you or the other 

301
00:16:12,600 --> 00:16:15,100
parts of the world came in and 
just blew their Edge out of the 

302
00:16:15,300 --> 00:16:17,000
Water. 
And that's and that's why they 

303
00:16:17,000 --> 00:16:19,100
probably started punching 
everything, right? 

304
00:16:19,100 --> 00:16:23,700
And it's just nuts like the 
reading reading through some of 

305
00:16:23,700 --> 00:16:28,000
the recent documents about the 
disclosures on the advantages 

306
00:16:28,000 --> 00:16:30,900
that they had, you know, 
essentially trading against 

307
00:16:30,900 --> 00:16:33,400
customers. 
Like it's just like, this is the

308
00:16:33,400 --> 00:16:36,000
sort of shit that would make 
your head spin, like, lines of 

309
00:16:36,000 --> 00:16:39,200
credit, obviously directly, from
the exchanges is, that's okay, 

310
00:16:39,500 --> 00:16:42,900
non liquidation accounts like 
totally egregious or I'm 

311
00:16:42,900 --> 00:16:45,100
favorable access to apis, you 
know, with hi. 

312
00:16:45,200 --> 00:16:47,400
Your calls and rate limits 
absolutely insane. 

313
00:16:47,500 --> 00:16:50,500
Like looking at the order book 
and just like in plain sight, 

314
00:16:50,500 --> 00:16:54,700
front-running orders, like, this
is like outright fraud, right? 

315
00:16:54,700 --> 00:16:58,100
So, just just reading these 
things, just it makes your head 

316
00:16:58,100 --> 00:16:59,300
spin. 
It's insane. 

317
00:17:01,200 --> 00:17:05,000
It's like it's, yeah, the thing 
that I wonder in what I hear, 

318
00:17:05,000 --> 00:17:07,200
but, you know, the Japan Arbor 
that, you know, the kimchi 

319
00:17:07,200 --> 00:17:09,300
premium. 
It's like, okay, it's like ospf.

320
00:17:09,300 --> 00:17:12,000
Gotta start made his first 
billion doing this. 

321
00:17:12,000 --> 00:17:14,400
Like, you know, are betrayed 
where, like you said, would need

322
00:17:14,400 --> 00:17:17,000
to be on two separate. 
Eggs and to make, you know, that

323
00:17:17,000 --> 00:17:22,000
lot of size doing an ARB, you 
need massive size to begin with,

324
00:17:22,000 --> 00:17:25,800
like you can't make a billion 
dollars trading a, you know, a 

325
00:17:25,800 --> 00:17:28,900
spread into separate it. 
You know to to separate like 

326
00:17:28,900 --> 00:17:33,200
exchange rates with you know, a 
million dollars of capital or 

327
00:17:33,200 --> 00:17:36,200
something, right? 
Like like the whole story was 

328
00:17:36,200 --> 00:17:38,700
questionable and then you throw 
in the fact, I Jenny, I forget 

329
00:17:38,700 --> 00:17:42,600
if we message about this over 
the summer but I came across 

330
00:17:42,600 --> 00:17:47,200
these meted Ox from 19. 
It was just screenshots, wasn't 

331
00:17:47,200 --> 00:17:51,000
that full documents of their 
promotion of their fund 

332
00:17:51,000 --> 00:17:52,800
performance, through the 2018, 
bear market. 

333
00:17:52,800 --> 00:17:57,600
Like, literally from like the 
star of the top 20 17, December,

334
00:17:57,600 --> 00:18:01,000
whatever it was all the way down
to, like maybe late, 2018, 

335
00:18:01,000 --> 00:18:03,600
early, 2019. 
And, you know, a lot of 

336
00:18:03,600 --> 00:18:07,200
volatility in that crypto bear 
Market as Bitcoin and a theory 

337
00:18:07,200 --> 00:18:09,900
and which were what they 
advertised their performance 

338
00:18:09,900 --> 00:18:13,300
against went, you know, Chopped 
all the way down 80%. 

339
00:18:13,300 --> 00:18:15,100
Their performance was up only 
know. 

340
00:18:15,200 --> 00:18:17,400
Draw Downs, hundred ten percent 
annualized. 

341
00:18:17,400 --> 00:18:23,100
And I saw these and I sent it to
some people who, you know, I'd 

342
00:18:23,100 --> 00:18:26,700
want to know about and I said, 
hey got, you know, came across 

343
00:18:26,700 --> 00:18:31,000
these but their spelling errors 
and this is literally the like 

344
00:18:31,000 --> 00:18:33,200
the biggest fraudulent Ponzi of 
ever seen. 

345
00:18:33,200 --> 00:18:35,400
There's no way this is real. 
Like I think someone's just 

346
00:18:35,400 --> 00:18:37,800
trying to like, you know, spread
fake news or something. 

347
00:18:37,800 --> 00:18:40,000
But if it's true, they're 
running, they're running a Ponzi

348
00:18:40,000 --> 00:18:44,200
and you know, I was just 
hesitant to stake my like, you 

349
00:18:44,200 --> 00:18:47,800
know, personal Ation on the line
for like you know what was in 

350
00:18:47,800 --> 00:18:51,000
the you know in theory one of 
the only remaining like you know

351
00:18:51,000 --> 00:18:54,700
exchanges firms hedge funds in 
the space was like all right 

352
00:18:54,900 --> 00:18:57,500
maybe I don't hesitate to stake.
My reputation on the line here 

353
00:18:57,500 --> 00:19:02,100
but like you know noted this is 
potentially like I mean that's a

354
00:19:02,108 --> 00:19:04,000
Ponzi. 
Like look at go look up Bernie 

355
00:19:04,000 --> 00:19:08,300
Madoff returns any for 18 years,
he made, you know, 10% on, no 

356
00:19:08,300 --> 00:19:09,800
volatility. 
This is what these guys were 

357
00:19:09,800 --> 00:19:12,900
showing over, 18 months and 
crypto markets that were, you 

358
00:19:12,900 --> 00:19:15,000
know, 100% hunt, you know, 
hundred ball. 

359
00:19:15,200 --> 00:19:19,200
Hundred fifty ball assets. 
So that was like, pretty good. 

360
00:19:25,400 --> 00:19:28,000
I think I have that original 
Deputy white paper somewhere. 

361
00:19:28,600 --> 00:19:31,200
And you know, after the fact, 
you look at all these things. 

362
00:19:31,200 --> 00:19:33,200
As I know yeah, they meant a 
bunch of tokens out of nothing. 

363
00:19:33,200 --> 00:19:35,500
They use it as collateral but 
they were literally, like 

364
00:19:35,500 --> 00:19:38,400
hunting, other people's 
liquidation prices and defy 

365
00:19:38,400 --> 00:19:42,100
summer with ftt, collateral. 
Like, these guys were just 

366
00:19:42,100 --> 00:19:45,600
basically, you know, they wanted
to be sharks, but they were 

367
00:19:46,100 --> 00:19:49,200
pretty bad at it as more. 
So, just fraud and worthless, 

368
00:19:49,600 --> 00:19:52,600
you know, like monetary Alchemy 
in a way in the crypto and the 

369
00:19:52,600 --> 00:19:57,300
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411
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Yeah, it was one. 
Other thing I'll bring up, which

412
00:22:04,400 --> 00:22:06,800
I think is the Salient point in 
like somewhat relevant to. 

413
00:22:06,800 --> 00:22:11,200
This is, you know, I remember 
back in the day, one of the one 

414
00:22:11,200 --> 00:22:14,600
of the kind of value 
propositions that people from 

415
00:22:14,600 --> 00:22:17,100
that team, we're touting was 
What do you know? 

416
00:22:17,100 --> 00:22:20,200
Look at Alameda there on the 
there on the max leaderboard, 

417
00:22:20,200 --> 00:22:21,700
right? 
And back then, you know, we have

418
00:22:21,700 --> 00:22:24,600
like some obscene amount of 
market share like 60 plus 

419
00:22:24,600 --> 00:22:27,200
seventy plus percent and so you 
have the leaderboard obviously 

420
00:22:27,200 --> 00:22:29,700
mattered and they have like, two
accounts or something on there, 

421
00:22:29,700 --> 00:22:31,500
which is, you know, by all 
accounts. 

422
00:22:31,500 --> 00:22:35,100
That's that that's relevant. 
And it makes sense however, you 

423
00:22:35,100 --> 00:22:37,900
know, one of the someone pointed
this out to me recently where 

424
00:22:37,900 --> 00:22:41,600
it's like, okay, so you're 
you're on the leaderboard on one

425
00:22:41,600 --> 00:22:43,600
exchange, right? 
Which is fine. 

426
00:22:43,600 --> 00:22:47,000
The dominance change at the time
and so your Directionally 

427
00:22:47,000 --> 00:22:49,900
correct on most of your bets on 
one exchange but you could also 

428
00:22:49,900 --> 00:22:52,300
just be hedging that out 
somewhere else and you could 

429
00:22:52,300 --> 00:22:55,800
actually be completely neutral 
on the trade, right? 

430
00:22:55,900 --> 00:22:59,200
And so the leaderboard, the 
leaderboard kind of sticking 

431
00:22:59,200 --> 00:23:03,100
point may not have actually been
as valid as most people thought,

432
00:23:03,200 --> 00:23:04,600
right? 
Because you don't you don't know

433
00:23:04,600 --> 00:23:07,000
the other side of what someone 
else is trading, right? 

434
00:23:07,100 --> 00:23:09,400
They could just they could be 
going long in one place and they

435
00:23:09,400 --> 00:23:11,900
could just be hedging it out 
another place and they're 

436
00:23:11,900 --> 00:23:13,900
actually not making any money or
they're making very little 

437
00:23:13,900 --> 00:23:15,800
money. 
However, the leaderboard shows 

438
00:23:15,800 --> 00:23:19,700
that your Of in a top position. 
And so, a lot of this was back 

439
00:23:19,700 --> 00:23:22,000
in the day, was kind of. 
It was touted as one of the big 

440
00:23:22,000 --> 00:23:24,000
value problems. 
Like, look at us, we're doing X 

441
00:23:24,000 --> 00:23:26,400
Y & Z. 
And, you know, we're topping, 

442
00:23:26,400 --> 00:23:28,800
you know, we're top dogs in the 
top market. 

443
00:23:28,900 --> 00:23:31,800
And, and, you know, you start to
wonder, like, how much was that 

444
00:23:31,800 --> 00:23:33,500
was actually true. 
Like, yesterday, you have to 

445
00:23:33,500 --> 00:23:35,800
call everything into question at
this point, right? 

446
00:23:35,800 --> 00:23:40,000
If everything was a lie or a lot
of things in the recent past or 

447
00:23:40,000 --> 00:23:42,700
a lot, it could be, you know, it
could also be true that 

448
00:23:42,700 --> 00:23:44,700
everything else was a liar. 
Most other things were like, 

449
00:23:44,700 --> 00:23:47,700
right. 
So, you know, You have to start 

450
00:23:47,700 --> 00:23:50,200
to question, you know, kind of 
that all the historical data 

451
00:23:50,400 --> 00:23:54,600
around the stuff and you know 
it's just yeah it's just wild to

452
00:23:55,000 --> 00:23:58,400
it started digging into that. 
Okay, so let's pivot a little 

453
00:23:58,400 --> 00:24:00,200
bit but still kind of on the 
same point. 

454
00:24:00,200 --> 00:24:03,300
It's, you know, everyone I've 
gotten a bunch of people ask me 

455
00:24:03,300 --> 00:24:07,100
like I like, I like I have some 
have a good answer like, what's 

456
00:24:07,100 --> 00:24:10,600
the next Domino to fall? 
And the reality is, I mean, 

457
00:24:10,600 --> 00:24:13,400
we're not really sure there's 
been plenty of domino so far 

458
00:24:13,500 --> 00:24:15,900
and, you know, logically many 
people and I think it'd be 

459
00:24:15,900 --> 00:24:18,900
personally Reasonable. 
Like, if this was that was the 

460
00:24:18,900 --> 00:24:21,500
last of it, although I will say 
I'm extremely skeptical. 

461
00:24:21,800 --> 00:24:24,500
We have the dcg stuff, right? 
Rumors flying around. 

462
00:24:24,600 --> 00:24:27,800
Radio Silence from Barry. 
I don't think I think the 

463
00:24:27,800 --> 00:24:30,100
Bitcoin is there. 
I don't think it's it's 

464
00:24:30,100 --> 00:24:31,400
questionable. 
The Friday tweets were 

465
00:24:31,400 --> 00:24:33,600
questionable. 
I will say it was just weird 

466
00:24:33,600 --> 00:24:35,000
language, you know. 
Hey guys. 

467
00:24:35,000 --> 00:24:37,100
Like we have the power to like 
it. 

468
00:24:37,100 --> 00:24:39,100
I mean, it's the frame one, 
that's not aware. 

469
00:24:39,100 --> 00:24:44,500
It's extremely trivial to just 
and I guess if you from privacy 

470
00:24:44,500 --> 00:24:47,800
reasons, wouldn't want to do it,
but it's Reveal to just sign a 

471
00:24:47,808 --> 00:24:50,600
message across an address or 
multiple addresses. 

472
00:24:50,600 --> 00:24:53,500
I can do it in five seconds on 
my on my full node, you know, 

473
00:24:53,500 --> 00:24:55,100
and Bitcoin core. 
Like this is the most simple 

474
00:24:55,100 --> 00:24:57,000
thing ever. 
Then actually competing trust 

475
00:24:57,000 --> 00:25:01,000
which is very small Osprey 
Bitcoin trust, who is coinbase 

476
00:25:01,000 --> 00:25:04,200
custodian publish their address 
today, right? 

477
00:25:04,200 --> 00:25:06,400
So it's not a coin based thing 
and they probably could do it in

478
00:25:06,400 --> 00:25:09,800
30 seconds, which is a little 
weird. 

479
00:25:09,800 --> 00:25:14,600
But I think grayscales fine. 
The real concern here is for you

480
00:25:14,600 --> 00:25:18,500
know, next dominoes Genesis is a
really big player or at least 

481
00:25:18,500 --> 00:25:20,900
was a big player. 
They've halted their loan book 

482
00:25:21,000 --> 00:25:24,900
and they halted withdrawals, 
Gemini but also the real 

483
00:25:24,900 --> 00:25:30,400
question for me is does dcg and 
Genesis and they said, you know,

484
00:25:30,500 --> 00:25:33,900
Genesis Global does not have a 
liability or any relation with 

485
00:25:33,900 --> 00:25:35,800
dcg. 
But I mean, take a look at the 

486
00:25:35,808 --> 00:25:38,000
Alameda, corporate entity chart,
right? 

487
00:25:38,000 --> 00:25:41,000
And you understand how easy it 
is to make a statement like 

488
00:25:41,000 --> 00:25:44,300
that, that's technically true 
and there's some form of like, 

489
00:25:44,300 --> 00:25:48,800
you know, loan or credit line or
No between the two firms under 

490
00:25:48,800 --> 00:25:50,800
another entity, or somehow 
connected, right? 

491
00:25:50,800 --> 00:25:52,600
And I think, obviously, it's in 
their interest to be, you know, 

492
00:25:52,600 --> 00:25:56,700
kind of quell that fear. 
But is there, is that, is this a

493
00:25:56,708 --> 00:25:58,100
domino? 
We shouldn't be talking about? 

494
00:25:58,100 --> 00:26:01,200
Is it all useless Fudd? 
Like, what is your thoughts 

495
00:26:01,200 --> 00:26:02,400
here? 
Because I'm trying to actively, 

496
00:26:02,400 --> 00:26:04,000
you know, work my thoughts 
around it. 

497
00:26:04,300 --> 00:26:08,300
Yeah, so so look, I think I'll 
preface this by saying that, you

498
00:26:08,300 --> 00:26:13,200
know, because we've gone through
these, you know, consecutive, 

499
00:26:13,600 --> 00:26:17,900
you know, Black Swan events and 
Endings, everyone is a little 

500
00:26:17,900 --> 00:26:21,200
bit more hyper Vigilant about, 
you know, what's the next thing?

501
00:26:21,200 --> 00:26:24,900
And you should, we keep our eyes
open, you know, for the next 

502
00:26:24,900 --> 00:26:27,200
disaster in this sort of thing. 
I get it. 

503
00:26:27,300 --> 00:26:30,900
People are very sensitive to 
this sort of thing now, and as 

504
00:26:30,900 --> 00:26:33,500
we should always be not just in 
times of Crisis. 

505
00:26:33,500 --> 00:26:38,100
But here's what I'll say on this
ccg is one of the oldest 

506
00:26:38,100 --> 00:26:40,100
organizations in the entire 
ecosystem. 

507
00:26:40,100 --> 00:26:42,300
They've survived like three or 
four Market Cycles. 

508
00:26:42,600 --> 00:26:47,400
You know, they've grown in size 
across every Possible vertical 

509
00:26:47,400 --> 00:26:51,400
you Genesis training, does spot 
into ribs, their lending 

510
00:26:51,400 --> 00:26:54,300
business, which you mentioned, 
which is in a crunch now, they 

511
00:26:54,300 --> 00:26:56,400
were, they were one of the 
largest lenders, they were 

512
00:26:56,400 --> 00:26:58,300
basically kind of the lender of 
Last Resort for the whole 

513
00:26:58,300 --> 00:27:00,700
ecosystem, for the last, like, 
four years. 

514
00:27:00,700 --> 00:27:03,300
And, you know, it's kind of 
like, a dirty secret. 

515
00:27:03,300 --> 00:27:06,000
And, you know, they have other 
things like Foundry, which says 

516
00:27:06,000 --> 00:27:08,300
my name, they own Lou know which
is an exchange. 

517
00:27:08,300 --> 00:27:09,900
Like there, are they own coin 
desk? 

518
00:27:09,900 --> 00:27:11,200
They want a bunch of shit, 
right? 

519
00:27:11,200 --> 00:27:14,900
So they're they're extremely 
embedded everywhere, all over 

520
00:27:14,900 --> 00:27:16,800
the place and they also do a ton
Adventure. 

521
00:27:17,100 --> 00:27:20,700
So you know dcg as a whole 
definitely not worried. 

522
00:27:20,700 --> 00:27:26,100
Also Barry silbert is an OG 
operator and you know say what 

523
00:27:26,100 --> 00:27:29,000
you will and you know we'll 
always crack, you know, jokes 

524
00:27:29,000 --> 00:27:32,300
about Barry you know, on Twitter
about it being a big week and 

525
00:27:32,300 --> 00:27:35,100
it's all fun and games. 
But, you know, if anyone's going

526
00:27:35,100 --> 00:27:37,300
to figure out a solution to 
this, it's going to be very 

527
00:27:37,300 --> 00:27:39,400
silvered straight up. 
This guy's been around the 

528
00:27:39,400 --> 00:27:42,600
block, he knows, literally 
everybody, from every part of 

529
00:27:42,600 --> 00:27:46,200
the ecosystem, he's trusted, 
he's legit, he is the man. 

530
00:27:46,400 --> 00:27:49,000
Librarian with this isn't an 
excuse, you know, the whole in 

531
00:27:49,000 --> 00:27:52,500
Genesis which you know, from the
sounds of it is quite big and at

532
00:27:52,500 --> 00:27:54,000
least a billion dollars, you 
know. 

533
00:27:54,000 --> 00:27:56,500
It's a big deal, right? 
Like there's that's not an 

534
00:27:56,500 --> 00:27:58,600
insignificant amount of. 
Yeah, I think the gray scale 

535
00:27:58,600 --> 00:28:01,200
stuff is a bit of a red herring 
coinbase custody. 

536
00:28:01,200 --> 00:28:04,200
Put out that notice today, you 
know, verifying that they're 

537
00:28:04,500 --> 00:28:07,200
that they're actually in control
of the assets which is great. 

538
00:28:07,200 --> 00:28:10,000
I'm sure that kind of takes the 
edge off for some people but, 

539
00:28:10,000 --> 00:28:13,500
you know, look, here's the thing
I think if from from the sounds 

540
00:28:13,500 --> 00:28:16,000
of it, if you believe the rumors
on Twitter, you know, there was 

541
00:28:16,000 --> 00:28:18,800
this You know, supposed 
fundraiser over the weekend for 

542
00:28:18,800 --> 00:28:22,200
Genesis and it didn't go so 
well, for whatever unknown 

543
00:28:22,200 --> 00:28:24,400
reasons. 
And, and so, they're kind of in 

544
00:28:24,400 --> 00:28:27,400
a crunch right now. 
You know, if Barry's Silver 

545
00:28:27,400 --> 00:28:31,300
cannot raise money from the 
obvious kind of players that you

546
00:28:31,300 --> 00:28:32,900
would typically go to for this 
sort of thing. 

547
00:28:33,300 --> 00:28:37,200
I suspect, you know, there, 
there will be a, you know, if 

548
00:28:37,200 --> 00:28:39,500
under of Last Resort could be 
CZ. 

549
00:28:39,500 --> 00:28:42,800
Could be another big player, you
know, Barry can configure this 

550
00:28:42,800 --> 00:28:46,200
out and I think this will be 
sorted in the next little while.

551
00:28:46,400 --> 00:28:48,400
So, I'm not necessarily worried 
about it. 

552
00:28:48,400 --> 00:28:52,400
I mean, it's definitely a little
bit of cause for concern, but I 

553
00:28:52,400 --> 00:28:54,500
wouldn't, I wouldn't lose sleep 
over this. 

554
00:28:55,400 --> 00:28:58,400
Yeah, I'd be really shocked if 
you know, I think there's a 

555
00:28:58,400 --> 00:29:00,900
nonzero probability for 
everything and that's the market

556
00:29:01,100 --> 00:29:03,700
this, you know, crypto market, 
and the history of Legacy 

557
00:29:03,700 --> 00:29:08,200
markets should tell us that but 
chances of dcg very, you know, 

558
00:29:08,208 --> 00:29:11,500
having this like you know 
large-scale SPF style fraud, in 

559
00:29:11,500 --> 00:29:14,900
my opinion is zero or close to 
as close to zero as you'd like. 

560
00:29:14,900 --> 00:29:19,000
It's just a matter of the Dcg 
Genesis balance sheets, and then

561
00:29:19,000 --> 00:29:20,300
and I don't think anybody knows 
that. 

562
00:29:20,300 --> 00:29:23,300
And the Silence has been kind of
weird, I think, you know, to 

563
00:29:23,300 --> 00:29:26,900
counter your point or to maybe 
play, you know, Devil's, 

564
00:29:26,900 --> 00:29:30,500
Advocate in terms of like how 
bad it could get right. 

565
00:29:30,500 --> 00:29:34,400
Like I mean I I think gbtc is 
fine and the worst-case scenario

566
00:29:34,400 --> 00:29:37,900
is that unless you know, the 
like this, you know, nonzero 

567
00:29:37,900 --> 00:29:41,500
chance like very very, you know,
small small chance that there's 

568
00:29:41,500 --> 00:29:43,400
like something real wrong under 
the hood. 

569
00:29:43,400 --> 00:29:46,200
I do not think this whatsoever 
but it's nonzero. 

570
00:29:46,400 --> 00:29:50,900
Gbtc is, you know, in a bad spot
otherwise even if grayscale or 

571
00:29:50,900 --> 00:29:53,600
GTG or these other firms and I'm
no expert. 

572
00:29:53,600 --> 00:29:56,100
But I think that the the trust 
would just get bought by another

573
00:29:56,100 --> 00:29:58,000
participant problem, maybe even 
a track 5. 

574
00:29:58,300 --> 00:30:01,100
So I think that's fine. 
But when I, when I look at like 

575
00:30:01,100 --> 00:30:04,900
and I posted it today coinbase 
is like you know the for in 

576
00:30:04,900 --> 00:30:07,600
terms of crypto companies and 
public markets, it's like the 

577
00:30:07,600 --> 00:30:11,300
most. 
It's it's a sterling example and

578
00:30:11,308 --> 00:30:14,600
maybe it's not Sterling, but it 
was, you know, like that the 

579
00:30:14,600 --> 00:30:18,100
IPO, all this stuff and My field
at the top but like coin basis, 

580
00:30:18,100 --> 00:30:19,600
poster child. 
And when they're when they're 

581
00:30:19,600 --> 00:30:24,300
seven year, I guess now like six
year, five year, secured debt is

582
00:30:24,300 --> 00:30:27,600
trading 50 cents in the dollar. 
Right? 

583
00:30:27,600 --> 00:30:31,500
Three point three seven five 
percent coupon is training with 

584
00:30:31,500 --> 00:30:35,700
a 17 handle, right? 
So like this is coinbase and if 

585
00:30:35,700 --> 00:30:39,200
coinbase like that thatis that 
to me, tells me it's less about 

586
00:30:39,200 --> 00:30:42,700
coinbase, like it's not and I'm 
not trying to thud coinbase or 

587
00:30:42,700 --> 00:30:45,100
anything, like some people in my
replies, think it's more. 

588
00:30:45,100 --> 00:30:48,300
So, just the reality that like 
it, You are a crypto firm or an 

589
00:30:48,308 --> 00:30:53,400
exchange or a mining company or 
whatever the crypto native risk 

590
00:30:53,400 --> 00:30:56,400
Premia or maybe it's just a 
liquidity crunch right? 

591
00:30:56,400 --> 00:30:58,700
Because all these lending desks 
are screwed, Genesis is group 

592
00:30:58,700 --> 00:31:01,000
block, five screwed, like all of
them, right? 

593
00:31:01,100 --> 00:31:04,000
If you need to finance or roll 
or refinance. 

594
00:31:04,000 --> 00:31:07,400
Anything in the crypto 
ecosystem, like a lot of people 

595
00:31:07,400 --> 00:31:10,600
are very familiar with like, you
know, the theory of like credit 

596
00:31:10,600 --> 00:31:14,300
impulse in the macro economic 
cycle, right? 

597
00:31:14,400 --> 00:31:17,500
Like, thanks for Lending acid. 
He was ranked are increasing 

598
00:31:17,500 --> 00:31:20,100
collateral values, increasing 
and it's a feedback loop and 

599
00:31:20,100 --> 00:31:22,100
like these are kind of why we 
have short-term economic debt 

600
00:31:22,100 --> 00:31:23,900
Cycles, right now. 
Like if you think about the 

601
00:31:23,900 --> 00:31:25,900
crypto native sense, where 
there's no lender of Last 

602
00:31:25,900 --> 00:31:28,400
Resort, but this is the reality 
is there's no lender of Last 

603
00:31:28,400 --> 00:31:31,800
Resort. 
So any so any kind of impairment

604
00:31:32,200 --> 00:31:36,300
or, you know, they'll call it a 
liquidity issue but if a, you 

605
00:31:36,300 --> 00:31:40,700
know, a loan book can't step 
fire sell its assets and cover 

606
00:31:40,700 --> 00:31:43,600
its liabilities. 
It's mark-to-market insolvent. 

607
00:31:43,600 --> 00:31:45,900
Like there's no way around it, 
right? 

608
00:31:45,900 --> 00:31:47,600
Because there's No lender of 
Last Resort. 

609
00:31:47,900 --> 00:31:50,600
So in that, in that case, when 
all these length, like literally

610
00:31:50,600 --> 00:31:53,600
every lending dusting, the space
just took out behind the shed 

611
00:31:53,600 --> 00:31:57,000
and shot and coinbase. 
If it needs to refi its debt and

612
00:31:57,000 --> 00:31:59,600
maybe wouldn't be a seven-year 
term and maybe the terms could 

613
00:31:59,600 --> 00:32:03,100
be, you know, senior secured or 
like like it would be somewhat 

614
00:32:03,100 --> 00:32:04,900
different rather than the 
current structure but they're 

615
00:32:04,900 --> 00:32:11,100
trading at 17 percent and that's
like Mega Ultra trash junk level

616
00:32:11,100 --> 00:32:13,100
rating. 
So I think people should just 

617
00:32:13,100 --> 00:32:16,700
understand like From this 
ecosystem perspective you can 

618
00:32:16,700 --> 00:32:21,100
either fire sale your Equity at 
bottom Barrel valuations. 

619
00:32:21,200 --> 00:32:24,400
I don't care if your firm's 
private and last raised in 2021 

620
00:32:24,400 --> 00:32:26,800
and you're like yeah we're five 
billion dollar company. 

621
00:32:26,800 --> 00:32:31,800
You're not right like it's it's 
80 90 percent down across the 

622
00:32:31,800 --> 00:32:34,000
board. 
Bitcoin, 75% down, right? 

623
00:32:34,000 --> 00:32:37,500
So. 
So then I just I ask myself, how

624
00:32:37,500 --> 00:32:40,600
does this get resolved? 
Wow, right. 

625
00:32:40,600 --> 00:32:44,300
The vix is that. 2222 Equity is 
only 20% from there. 

626
00:32:44,500 --> 00:32:46,600
Heís, right? 
Like this can get materially 

627
00:32:46,600 --> 00:32:49,000
works and I'm not trying to be a
Doomer, but I'm just saying you 

628
00:32:49,008 --> 00:32:51,800
have you have Jeff Bezos come 
out and be like hey guys, save 

629
00:32:51,800 --> 00:32:55,700
your money like don't go by bike
ride a stuff, save your money, 

630
00:32:56,200 --> 00:33:00,700
don't buy the spare TV or fridge
and people are like, yeah, like 

631
00:33:00,700 --> 00:33:03,000
maybe the bottoms in and maybe 
it is again. 

632
00:33:03,300 --> 00:33:06,700
But all of these things are 
pointing to like more pain and 

633
00:33:06,700 --> 00:33:10,200
you know, not the like you know,
buy the dip up only that some 

634
00:33:10,200 --> 00:33:13,000
people still seem to be kind of 
condition towards I think it 

635
00:33:13,000 --> 00:33:15,300
like camera. 
And Pete Reiser here. 

636
00:33:15,300 --> 00:33:17,900
I've said this a few times on 
Spaces, it's just it's just a 

637
00:33:17,900 --> 00:33:21,100
hilarious analogy. 
He's like saying you know right 

638
00:33:21,100 --> 00:33:24,500
now you're getting the shit 
kicked out of you in and out in 

639
00:33:24,500 --> 00:33:26,800
a dark alleyway B by, you know, 
a few guys. 

640
00:33:26,800 --> 00:33:30,400
So you got jumped but what you 
don't realize is after they you 

641
00:33:30,400 --> 00:33:35,000
know beat the hell out of you 
you have five or six hours where

642
00:33:35,000 --> 00:33:38,200
you're alone in the dark beat up
and you realize that no one's 

643
00:33:38,200 --> 00:33:40,600
coming to get you. 
You got to pick yourself up and 

644
00:33:40,600 --> 00:33:43,900
get out of the alleyway and it's
like maybe this is the worst of 

645
00:33:43,900 --> 00:33:44,600
it, right? 
Right. 

646
00:33:44,600 --> 00:33:50,000
But even then, we got, we have 
some time of just, you know, 

647
00:33:50,200 --> 00:33:55,700
basically building and and, you 
know, it's just like it's gonna 

648
00:33:55,700 --> 00:33:57,800
be a grind for a while. 
So what I'm trying to say, I 

649
00:33:57,800 --> 00:34:00,000
think I've just, it's important 
to manage expectations about 

650
00:34:00,000 --> 00:34:02,400
this, and, you know, if it 
takes, if it takes a while, and 

651
00:34:02,400 --> 00:34:05,100
it does, and that's fine. 
Yeah. 

652
00:34:05,100 --> 00:34:09,199
Totally, I think like totally 
spot on. 

653
00:34:09,199 --> 00:34:11,300
I think it's going to be an 
absolute grind. 

654
00:34:11,400 --> 00:34:15,500
We're basically going to be a 
goblin town for a long while, 

655
00:34:16,100 --> 00:34:18,800
right? 
And and like realistically, I 

656
00:34:18,808 --> 00:34:22,300
don't think we know you know how
many more bodies are going to 

657
00:34:22,308 --> 00:34:26,199
wash it to your point done. 
I think, you know, you could be 

658
00:34:26,199 --> 00:34:28,800
looking at coinbase, you could 
be talking about Genesis, you 

659
00:34:28,800 --> 00:34:31,300
could be talking about any of 
these these public and private 

660
00:34:31,300 --> 00:34:35,500
companies to me. 
It's the market saying we Aren't

661
00:34:35,500 --> 00:34:39,800
sure, you'll even survive the 
next six months, let alone a 

662
00:34:39,800 --> 00:34:44,199
year to see our money back and 
so we want, they're just they're

663
00:34:44,199 --> 00:34:46,600
happy to sit on their hands and 
they want to see like prove it 

664
00:34:46,600 --> 00:34:49,000
prove it, you're going to 
survive, like prove, you're 

665
00:34:49,000 --> 00:34:52,100
going to be able to cut costs 
enough, sadly, layoff enough 

666
00:34:52,500 --> 00:34:56,900
employees, you know, cash at 
least somehow conjure up cash 

667
00:34:56,900 --> 00:34:59,600
flow positive. 
Most of these aren't profitable,

668
00:34:59,900 --> 00:35:04,900
but yeah, why everyone wants to 
know why should we pause Ably 

669
00:35:04,900 --> 00:35:08,400
throw good money after bed. 
When probably part of her own 

670
00:35:08,400 --> 00:35:12,400
book is melting somewhere and 
we've got to protect our own. 

671
00:35:12,500 --> 00:35:18,400
So yeah, it could be coinbase. 
It could be any of these dozen 

672
00:35:18,500 --> 00:35:21,600
plus mining stocks. 
It could you know you name it 

673
00:35:21,700 --> 00:35:27,100
and to me now we're all just 
talking about the rumor mill on 

674
00:35:27,100 --> 00:35:34,000
Genesis and they're and they're 
trading firm but to me This is 

675
00:35:34,000 --> 00:35:36,700
this is what should have 
happened with Alameda. 

676
00:35:36,700 --> 00:35:40,500
This is what they should have. 
Just let it try to get their own

677
00:35:40,500 --> 00:35:43,400
loan, get their own bailout. 
And if it can't get its billion 

678
00:35:43,400 --> 00:35:45,600
dollar bailout than it has, then
it dies. 

679
00:35:46,600 --> 00:35:48,500
Like that's that's where FTX 
went wrong. 

680
00:35:48,500 --> 00:35:51,300
That's where Sam sann one of 
Sam's, many failures. 

681
00:35:51,600 --> 00:35:53,200
But as soon as he's like, well, 
you know what? 

682
00:35:53,200 --> 00:35:57,200
I'll just dip into the customer 
funds and the customer cash flow

683
00:35:57,200 --> 00:35:59,500
and will give you a sweetheart 
behind the scenes. 

684
00:35:59,500 --> 00:36:01,800
Three billion dollar deal bail 
out. 

685
00:36:02,000 --> 00:36:05,400
That's not happening for Genesis
dcg isn't going to do that for 

686
00:36:05,700 --> 00:36:08,000
for Genesis it'll be a big black
eye. 

687
00:36:08,000 --> 00:36:09,800
It'll be really embarrassing for
Barry. 

688
00:36:09,800 --> 00:36:12,800
It'll you know everyone know 
everyone will you know get to 

689
00:36:12,800 --> 00:36:16,700
tap dance and I told you so's 
but it's also necessary and 

690
00:36:16,707 --> 00:36:17,800
that's how it's supposed to 
happen. 

691
00:36:17,800 --> 00:36:20,200
If they're, if they're lending, 
if they're trading desk, if 

692
00:36:20,200 --> 00:36:24,200
they're lending firm and their 
Venture desk go under, then it 

693
00:36:24,200 --> 00:36:27,100
should go under and the 
contagion stops right there. 

694
00:36:28,800 --> 00:36:31,400
Great points about I was 
wondering, if Matt, it can you 

695
00:36:31,400 --> 00:36:33,100
hear? 
Jenny and when he was you 

696
00:36:33,100 --> 00:36:36,700
speaking we kind of started 
talking same time as him my bad.

697
00:36:37,100 --> 00:36:43,200
No no it's all good. 
I just did like a Twitter spaces

698
00:36:43,200 --> 00:36:46,000
thing but if space is I see ya. 
I can't hear him. 

699
00:36:46,100 --> 00:36:49,000
I'll leave and come back. 
Yeah, justjust she taught me. 

700
00:36:49,008 --> 00:36:51,200
An invite guy, do you want to 
continue your point? 

701
00:36:51,200 --> 00:36:52,500
I forget what you were riffing 
on. 

702
00:36:52,900 --> 00:36:56,700
Yeah, first I'll find my Goblin 
Town and how we're going to be 

703
00:36:56,800 --> 00:36:58,700
all are going to be ready for 
the next? 

704
00:36:58,700 --> 00:37:03,000
Yeah, yeah. 
So I think there's a few more 

705
00:37:03,000 --> 00:37:05,000
things that are worth 
considering. 

706
00:37:05,300 --> 00:37:08,200
It's about number one, 
obviously, everyone's Focus this

707
00:37:08,200 --> 00:37:12,100
week is on Genesis and dcg, 
which is, you know, the correct 

708
00:37:12,100 --> 00:37:15,700
thing to be focusing on. 
However, you know, just from the

709
00:37:15,700 --> 00:37:19,400
conversations I've had 
internally and with some of our 

710
00:37:19,600 --> 00:37:22,000
clients and partners and 
whatever it look, everyone's 

711
00:37:22,000 --> 00:37:27,900
been hit by this really bad, and
if you want to understand, who 

712
00:37:27,900 --> 00:37:31,300
might be next, or, you know, 
who's taking a lot of damage, 

713
00:37:31,300 --> 00:37:35,000
you need to Understand, you know
what the market microstructure 

714
00:37:35,000 --> 00:37:38,000
of exchanges is right? 
And so, it's pretty simple. 

715
00:37:38,000 --> 00:37:40,900
You have, you have really two 
broad categories. 

716
00:37:40,900 --> 00:37:43,800
You have retail Traders and 
institutional Traders, and on 

717
00:37:43,800 --> 00:37:47,700
the institutional side, a lot of
the lifeblood of exchanges is 

718
00:37:47,700 --> 00:37:51,000
market makers. 
And you know, if you look at the

719
00:37:51,000 --> 00:37:56,000
size of f, the FTX operation 
both on the offshore exchange, 

720
00:37:56,000 --> 00:38:00,500
and on the u.s. entity, you'll 
start to realize that there's a 

721
00:38:00,508 --> 00:38:04,500
lot of liquidity providers. 
Our and not all of them, very 

722
00:38:04,500 --> 00:38:06,400
few of them got their money off 
in time. 

723
00:38:06,400 --> 00:38:10,600
And you know, I know folks with 
you know, seven eight nine 

724
00:38:10,600 --> 00:38:13,600
figures stuck there that they're
never going to see again or 

725
00:38:13,600 --> 00:38:16,700
they'll see 20 cents on the 
dollar in five or ten years once

726
00:38:16,700 --> 00:38:18,800
the bankruptcy proceedings are 
you know completed. 

727
00:38:18,800 --> 00:38:21,400
So you know it's really bad, 
right? 

728
00:38:21,400 --> 00:38:24,500
And people need to start 
thinking about how is this going

729
00:38:24,500 --> 00:38:28,700
to impact overall liquidity? 
Because you know just taking a 

730
00:38:28,700 --> 00:38:32,400
taking a few steps back you'll 
quickly start to Realize there's

731
00:38:32,400 --> 00:38:36,100
going to be a very negative 
impact and there's going to be, 

732
00:38:36,100 --> 00:38:38,600
you know, a lot of liquidity 
drying up in certain places, you

733
00:38:38,600 --> 00:38:42,200
know, certainly for especially 
for some of these, you know, 

734
00:38:42,200 --> 00:38:44,900
liquid shit. 
Coins were Alameda was either 

735
00:38:44,900 --> 00:38:48,000
the primary Market maker or one 
of very few, right? 

736
00:38:48,000 --> 00:38:49,800
A lot of these projects, you 
know that took money from 

737
00:38:49,800 --> 00:38:54,400
Alameda, we're tied up in these 
long-term deals where you know, 

738
00:38:54,400 --> 00:38:58,000
they would keep the the funds on
on ft x and I'll meet it would 

739
00:38:58,000 --> 00:39:00,600
mark, it makes so they got 
fucked in two ways and it's just

740
00:39:00,600 --> 00:39:03,600
you know it's going to be Be 
it's going to be really bad, you

741
00:39:03,600 --> 00:39:06,800
know, there's going to be I 
suspect before the end of the 

742
00:39:06,800 --> 00:39:08,200
year. 
There's going to be way more 

743
00:39:08,200 --> 00:39:11,700
bodies washing up and I think 
some people are not being honest

744
00:39:11,700 --> 00:39:16,500
about their exposure right now 
but time Reveals All and you 

745
00:39:16,500 --> 00:39:19,800
know, I think I think it'll be 
pretty clear before the end of 

746
00:39:19,800 --> 00:39:23,100
the year, you know, most of the 
bodies that that got affected by

747
00:39:23,100 --> 00:39:25,100
this. 
So you know, it's just, it's 

748
00:39:25,100 --> 00:39:26,400
kind of a waiting game right 
now. 

749
00:39:27,300 --> 00:39:30,600
Here's a here's a catalyst or, 
you know, another body that no 

750
00:39:30,600 --> 00:39:33,300
one's really talking about it. 
And I know I kind of say say 

751
00:39:33,300 --> 00:39:36,700
this and post this kind of stuff
from time to time as a joke, 

752
00:39:36,700 --> 00:39:41,100
being sad Tire like hey like you
know what's the use case of of 

753
00:39:41,100 --> 00:39:47,700
entities and defy that offer 2% 
yields on stable coins that 

754
00:39:47,700 --> 00:39:51,400
again may or may not like do I 
am I a tether truth or no? 

755
00:39:51,500 --> 00:39:55,300
I'm not and I you know believe 
long before the peg breaks 

756
00:39:55,300 --> 00:39:58,600
you'll see a run. 
On on a circulating Supply. 

757
00:39:58,800 --> 00:40:02,600
And we're not really seeing that
any worrisome level regardless 

758
00:40:02,600 --> 00:40:06,100
of all that like defy yield 
yield farming, all this stuff 

759
00:40:06,100 --> 00:40:10,300
but like supposed Innovation, 
you know, kind of just slap slap

760
00:40:10,300 --> 00:40:16,100
Trad Phi into like a wildcat 
banking era into a protocol and 

761
00:40:16,100 --> 00:40:18,900
you know that's all gone, right?
Like like the D Phi, D, Phi, 

762
00:40:18,900 --> 00:40:21,600
summer, defy, yields all this 
stuff. 

763
00:40:21,700 --> 00:40:24,300
Why would I do that? 
When I can go by 4% you know 

764
00:40:24,300 --> 00:40:26,800
I'll get four point seven 
percent on short-term t-bills. 

765
00:40:27,200 --> 00:40:28,500
Right. 
I'll bite, you know, short-term 

766
00:40:28,500 --> 00:40:32,000
treasury bill ETF, or I'll you 
know you know stick it in a 

767
00:40:33,100 --> 00:40:36,600
savings account and get 3%. 
Write like this is the reality 

768
00:40:36,600 --> 00:40:40,300
and so D Phi. 
N FTS all this stuff like 

769
00:40:40,300 --> 00:40:44,600
etherium is still 1,100 bucks. 
Like what's that? 

770
00:40:44,700 --> 00:40:46,900
You know 150 billion dollar 
market cap or something. 

771
00:40:47,200 --> 00:40:50,500
Like in terms of the liquidity 
right now, you're seeing the FTX

772
00:40:50,500 --> 00:40:55,100
hacker, just just mark it dumped
aetherium 444 Bitcoin and doing 

773
00:40:55,100 --> 00:40:59,300
all this weird other stuff. 
I Think that, you know, if PPC, 

774
00:40:59,300 --> 00:41:01,600
if we're, you know, if we're in 
this maybe it's this new 

775
00:41:01,600 --> 00:41:04,800
paradigm, right? 
Like, eat this, deflation Ariel,

776
00:41:04,800 --> 00:41:07,500
don't your sound money, like, 
like, some of the proponents 

777
00:41:07,500 --> 00:41:10,300
say, but I'm not confident in 
that thing. 

778
00:41:10,300 --> 00:41:14,200
And really, it's, it's a lasting
support during a potentially 

779
00:41:14,200 --> 00:41:17,000
pretty bad. 
Like global economic recession, 

780
00:41:17,000 --> 00:41:20,600
/ depression, right? 
All of these leading indicators 

781
00:41:21,100 --> 00:41:24,200
and the traditional economy are 
saying, okay, like the housing 

782
00:41:24,200 --> 00:41:26,900
just starting to turn employment
is just starting to turn Maybe. 

783
00:41:27,100 --> 00:41:29,300
Soft Landing, right? 
But if there's not and we're 

784
00:41:29,300 --> 00:41:34,100
just kind of entering the the 
apathy phase or we haven't even 

785
00:41:34,100 --> 00:41:38,000
reached the apathy phase for 
these you know speculative 

786
00:41:38,000 --> 00:41:40,000
crypto coins. 
I'm actually a lot more 

787
00:41:40,000 --> 00:41:42,800
confident in the buyers and 
toddlers of Last Resort for 

788
00:41:42,800 --> 00:41:47,400
Bitcoin just based on the test 
of time and you know how these 

789
00:41:47,400 --> 00:41:51,500
liquid in the games are played, 
it seems like you know, any 

790
00:41:51,800 --> 00:41:54,600
still probably more and even 
just like a psychological 

791
00:41:54,600 --> 00:41:56,900
perspective, right? 
Like $1000. 

792
00:41:57,000 --> 00:42:01,000
Hurry that versus what like 14 
and dollar Bitcoin, right. 

793
00:42:01,000 --> 00:42:03,800
Like, there's not like there's a
pretty big psychological effect 

794
00:42:03,800 --> 00:42:05,600
there too. 
So I'm just in terms of like, 

795
00:42:05,600 --> 00:42:07,000
you know, Catalyst for another 
leg lower. 

796
00:42:07,000 --> 00:42:09,300
It's like we've already seen 
really everything else in the 

797
00:42:09,900 --> 00:42:11,300
crypto. 
You can system deflate pretty 

798
00:42:11,300 --> 00:42:15,200
hard, except, you know, actually
eith, which is notoriously, like

799
00:42:15,200 --> 00:42:18,800
historically beta, right? 
And it's really nothing more 

800
00:42:18,800 --> 00:42:20,600
than beta often times. 
And people just kind of believe 

801
00:42:20,600 --> 00:42:23,800
the story because of the 
liquidity cycle, you know. 

802
00:42:23,800 --> 00:42:26,500
It seems a little icky PDC at 
Point o seven. 

803
00:42:27,100 --> 00:42:28,900
Not even training like trading 
it at this point. 

804
00:42:28,900 --> 00:42:33,100
I'm just kind of watching 
watching it all fall fall down 

805
00:42:33,100 --> 00:42:35,900
but I think that's probably 
maybe one of the things to go 

806
00:42:35,900 --> 00:42:39,500
Izzy the b2c ratio and also just
a famous General. 

807
00:42:39,500 --> 00:42:42,200
I think it's going to die. 
I just think like you know the 

808
00:42:42,200 --> 00:42:46,800
hype cycle right? 
Of what what drove East in the 

809
00:42:46,800 --> 00:42:50,200
last bull market is like ico's 
daps, right? 

810
00:42:50,200 --> 00:42:53,400
Like all the the world computer 
was like an actual sales pitch, 

811
00:42:53,400 --> 00:42:54,900
right? 
And then this cycle is an 

812
00:42:54,900 --> 00:42:58,500
ultrasound money. 
And you know and I FTS and like 

813
00:42:58,600 --> 00:43:02,000
and 2020 2021 was defy summer. 
Right? 

814
00:43:02,000 --> 00:43:06,100
So what's where's all that now? 
Right and I I just think that 

815
00:43:06,100 --> 00:43:09,500
it's going the other way. 
It's kind of just hanging like 

816
00:43:09,500 --> 00:43:13,100
Wiley Coyote suspended in the 
air as people realize that like 

817
00:43:13,100 --> 00:43:17,900
no one wants to hold the bag. 
Yeah, look II. 

818
00:43:17,900 --> 00:43:22,400
Think I think the nft stuff is, 
you know, it's already kind of 

819
00:43:22,400 --> 00:43:27,100
proven to dry up pretty badly. 
You know, you look at you, look 

820
00:43:27,100 --> 00:43:30,600
at some of the volumes up, both 
on, Ethan, Solana and 

821
00:43:30,800 --> 00:43:33,200
comparatively a six months ago, 
12 months ago. 

822
00:43:33,200 --> 00:43:35,800
It's, you know, it's pretty 
clear where the trend is going, 

823
00:43:35,900 --> 00:43:39,700
you know, the other thing too, 
is you have to keep in mind like

824
00:43:39,900 --> 00:43:44,200
some of these you know more more
Fringe, things like nft Zinio 

825
00:43:44,200 --> 00:43:47,700
and yield farming. 
Those are Mostly interesting to 

826
00:43:47,700 --> 00:43:51,600
people in, you know, in the good
times, right? 

827
00:43:51,600 --> 00:43:55,000
And when, you know, when we have
all time highs, when everyone's 

828
00:43:55,000 --> 00:43:58,200
making money and everyone just 
throws caution to the wind, 

829
00:43:58,200 --> 00:44:01,700
that's the most interesting 
period for some of these assets 

830
00:44:01,700 --> 00:44:03,900
to flourish. 
And you know, that's the 

831
00:44:04,300 --> 00:44:06,600
likeliest time for people to 
experiment with it. 

832
00:44:06,600 --> 00:44:09,900
You know, we've never really had
kind of a what's it called a 

833
00:44:09,900 --> 00:44:12,100
full Market cycle with entities 
and Define. 

834
00:44:12,100 --> 00:44:15,500
So I think we're going to like 
this will be the testing ground 

835
00:44:15,500 --> 00:44:16,600
for that right. 
If It. 

836
00:44:16,700 --> 00:44:19,900
If it, if it makes it out on the
other side of this cycle than, 

837
00:44:20,300 --> 00:44:23,000
you know, who knows, maybe 
there's, there's something to it

838
00:44:23,000 --> 00:44:26,400
and maybe we're all wrong, but 
if it doesn't then, you know, 

839
00:44:26,400 --> 00:44:28,200
the the case will be made for 
it. 

840
00:44:28,200 --> 00:44:29,800
But yeah, I mean like, what's an
office? 

841
00:44:29,800 --> 00:44:32,500
You have to think about the core
of where the market participants

842
00:44:32,500 --> 00:44:35,500
in, you know, in some of these 
products and particularly on the

843
00:44:35,500 --> 00:44:39,100
nft side like look it's a very 
it was there's only two major 

844
00:44:39,100 --> 00:44:41,500
categories. 
It's either crypto whales that 

845
00:44:41,500 --> 00:44:45,000
were just, you know, rotating in
and out of certain Collections 

846
00:44:45,000 --> 00:44:49,000
and and Try to hit trying to 
just climb their way up or it 

847
00:44:49,000 --> 00:44:53,000
was just retail hoping to strike
it big with, with some, some 

848
00:44:53,000 --> 00:44:56,500
rare and ft, and be able to, to 
cycle their way through that. 

849
00:44:56,500 --> 00:45:00,100
But, you know, right now, 
everyone's poor and liquidated 

850
00:45:00,100 --> 00:45:04,600
and, you know, and struggling. 
Some people have already rushed 

851
00:45:04,600 --> 00:45:09,600
for the exits, you know, others.
Others are just, you know, your 

852
00:45:09,600 --> 00:45:11,300
life right now trying to figure 
out what to do. 

853
00:45:11,300 --> 00:45:14,300
So I don't really think that 
either of those, you know, kind 

854
00:45:14,300 --> 00:45:17,100
of asset classes are gonna 
They're not going to be 

855
00:45:17,100 --> 00:45:20,100
interesting for for a long time.
If they if they do survive on 

856
00:45:20,100 --> 00:45:23,400
the other side of this, my guess
is, you know, just given the 

857
00:45:23,400 --> 00:45:27,400
amount of Market participants in
both of those, some version of 

858
00:45:27,400 --> 00:45:29,300
it will probably climb out the 
other side of this. 

859
00:45:29,300 --> 00:45:33,400
But you know, I think for now 
the obviously the safe haven, 

860
00:45:33,800 --> 00:45:37,400
you know for you know for our 
ecosystem is mostly Bitcoin. 

861
00:45:37,400 --> 00:45:39,900
And, you know, it's it'll play 
out over the next few months. 

862
00:45:42,200 --> 00:45:46,100
So today of the, the lows are 
being run and we're at 15 or a 

863
00:45:46,107 --> 00:45:49,400
15-5, at the moment. 
So, is the bottom end, jeez. 

864
00:45:49,400 --> 00:45:52,100
What a, what a ugly Market? 
Yeah, we got, we got some chop 

865
00:45:52,100 --> 00:45:53,300
man. 
That's for sure. 

866
00:45:53,400 --> 00:45:56,900
I think Bitcoin bottoms before 
the fitness fed money printer 

867
00:45:56,900 --> 00:46:00,400
gobert like, like I maybe that 
like, you know, the start of the

868
00:46:00,408 --> 00:46:04,500
new bull market per se and I 
kind of, you know, it really is 

869
00:46:04,500 --> 00:46:08,400
a shame that not a shame, but I 
think it's just the reality that

870
00:46:08,400 --> 00:46:12,100
yeah, this decentralized 
monetary asset is You know the 

871
00:46:12,100 --> 00:46:16,200
exchange rate is at the whims of
the you know, whatever they're 

872
00:46:16,200 --> 00:46:18,500
doing with the monetary policy 
because it's a check on the 

873
00:46:18,500 --> 00:46:21,800
whole game, right? 
Like like the fed the FED can't 

874
00:46:21,800 --> 00:46:23,600
raise and tighten forever and 
they're going to break 

875
00:46:23,600 --> 00:46:26,500
something. 
But we have this thing that's 

876
00:46:26,500 --> 00:46:28,700
supposedly independent and it is
independent. 

877
00:46:28,700 --> 00:46:31,800
Its monetary policy is, but its 
exchange rate is not because one

878
00:46:31,800 --> 00:46:35,300
half of the equation is b2c USD.
So but I do think in terms of 

879
00:46:35,300 --> 00:46:38,300
like the bottom and the, you 
know, I've somewhat said and I 

880
00:46:38,300 --> 00:46:42,000
don't I really don't care if I 
miss it or or you know No ticket

881
00:46:42,000 --> 00:46:44,400
to Perfection, which I won't, 
but I jokingly said, like, yeah,

882
00:46:44,400 --> 00:46:46,300
I'll put ways rise when I think 
it's the bottom. 

883
00:46:46,500 --> 00:46:50,000
I think Bitcoin can bottom and 
I'll get my best stab at it. 

884
00:46:50,000 --> 00:46:52,700
Like, I'm Nora Crow. 
I'm just guessing like everybody

885
00:46:52,700 --> 00:46:55,900
else, but I really believe that 
pick one can bottom like, you 

886
00:46:55,900 --> 00:47:01,100
know, put it in slow before the 
fed, you know says like okay 

887
00:47:01,100 --> 00:47:03,900
guys let's you know we're going 
to turn back to music for 

888
00:47:03,900 --> 00:47:06,400
turning it back on but in terms 
of like, you know the winds and 

889
00:47:06,400 --> 00:47:10,600
that secular uptrend, I think 
it's really like what you see 

890
00:47:10,600 --> 00:47:14,300
with The broader economy in the 
next, you know, Lynn Alden like 

891
00:47:14,300 --> 00:47:16,300
to say the PMI cycle, which I 
think is really interesting way 

892
00:47:16,300 --> 00:47:18,300
to think about it is like 
overlay the big one Cycles with 

893
00:47:18,300 --> 00:47:20,100
the overlay that with like the 
growth cycle. 

894
00:47:20,200 --> 00:47:23,200
And so yeah we got some we got 
some wood to chop for a while 

895
00:47:23,300 --> 00:47:27,400
and I think as long as you're 
you know not of Boomer or 

896
00:47:27,400 --> 00:47:29,800
someone that's not you know not 
to hate on the Boomers but 

897
00:47:29,800 --> 00:47:32,600
someone that has a portfolio 
they need to liquidate in five 

898
00:47:32,600 --> 00:47:34,400
years and you should be managing
your position size. 

899
00:47:34,400 --> 00:47:37,400
They're like this is nothing but
a thing in his act and it's 

900
00:47:37,400 --> 00:47:40,200
honestly like if you're here 
listening to space right now I 

901
00:47:40,200 --> 00:47:43,900
assume you've done some thinking
about Bitcoin previously like 

902
00:47:43,900 --> 00:47:46,700
this is actually the best thing 
that could have could happen to 

903
00:47:46,700 --> 00:47:50,100
you because this thing is not 
going away and if you believe it

904
00:47:50,100 --> 00:47:51,300
is and you believe the game is 
done forever. 

905
00:47:51,300 --> 00:47:55,200
Then great, you know, godspeed I
disagree with you. 

906
00:47:55,400 --> 00:47:59,100
So so like if the market is 
like, if it goes to 10 K, it's 

907
00:47:59,100 --> 00:48:00,200
over. 
No, it's not over. 

908
00:48:00,300 --> 00:48:02,400
Nothing's changed like the, the 
entire thesis. 

909
00:48:02,400 --> 00:48:04,500
Nothing is fundamentally changed
whatsoever. 

910
00:48:04,900 --> 00:48:06,500
We just get to wipe out all of 
this. 

911
00:48:06,500 --> 00:48:11,000
The layers of fraud, the layers 
of Lies, the liquid stupid shit 

912
00:48:11,000 --> 00:48:13,800
coins. 
It's the ponzi's, and the 

913
00:48:13,808 --> 00:48:15,500
ponzi's were spectacular. 
The cycle. 

914
00:48:15,500 --> 00:48:20,700
They were, you know, God, tier 
ponzi's, GG Skies, but the 

915
00:48:20,700 --> 00:48:23,500
game's over. 
Pack it up, you know, your 

916
00:48:23,500 --> 00:48:25,000
bucket shop is going to 
collapse. 

917
00:48:25,900 --> 00:48:30,400
And the builders that actual 
meaningful Innovation, and put 

918
00:48:30,600 --> 00:48:33,100
like a productive things being 
built on top of a neutral, a 

919
00:48:33,107 --> 00:48:35,700
political monetary settlement 
layer will remain. 

920
00:48:36,500 --> 00:48:40,300
And it's kind of funny to see, 
you know, despite how locally 

921
00:48:40,300 --> 00:48:43,300
bearish I've been. 
And you know, for much of 2022. 

922
00:48:43,600 --> 00:48:46,200
It's funny to see all the 
traffic guys that that, you 

923
00:48:46,200 --> 00:48:50,100
know, proclaimed victory at 3K, 
in 2019 cheering here. 

924
00:48:50,100 --> 00:48:53,300
And so, yeah, well we'll miss 
Ackers and hollers of Last 

925
00:48:53,300 --> 00:48:56,600
Resort will prevail eventually. 
And in the meantime, you expect 

926
00:48:56,600 --> 00:48:59,700
to get your teeth kicked in. 
That's, and that's the fun part 

927
00:48:59,700 --> 00:49:02,000
is because, you know, Bitcoin is
going anywhere. 

928
00:49:05,400 --> 00:49:08,400
Yeah, totally I think you know, 
I think one of the things that 

929
00:49:08,400 --> 00:49:11,800
people need to always keep in 
mind when we're talking about 

930
00:49:11,800 --> 00:49:15,800
Market Cycles is, you know who 
are going to be these new 

931
00:49:15,800 --> 00:49:19,400
participants and and what is 
going to catalyze them, you 

932
00:49:19,400 --> 00:49:22,900
know, to buy back in, right over
to buy in for the first time, 

933
00:49:22,900 --> 00:49:25,200
right? 
Like there's there right now on 

934
00:49:25,200 --> 00:49:27,400
the horizon like I'll just be 
straight up. 

935
00:49:27,400 --> 00:49:30,100
I see nothing right. 
It looks bad. 

936
00:49:30,100 --> 00:49:33,500
Global macro is sketchy. 
There's a lot of there's a lot 

937
00:49:33,500 --> 00:49:36,300
of headwinds things are very 
Uncertain, right? 

938
00:49:36,300 --> 00:49:39,500
We're still fighting inflation. 
Like, there's Wars going on, 

939
00:49:39,500 --> 00:49:44,400
things are terrible and so I 
just don't see any light at the 

940
00:49:44,408 --> 00:49:47,000
end of the tunnel right now. 
Obviously, you know, that, that 

941
00:49:47,000 --> 00:49:50,000
will change at some point. 
But, you know, just like 

942
00:49:50,000 --> 00:49:53,200
comparing told compared to last 
cycle, like what drove is really

943
00:49:53,200 --> 00:49:56,100
right. 
You had you know you had a 

944
00:49:56,100 --> 00:49:58,700
shitload of money printing yet 
stimulus tracks, you had you 

945
00:49:58,700 --> 00:50:03,200
know, the Bitcoin on on balance,
sheets narrative, you had sailor

946
00:50:03,200 --> 00:50:05,500
and you had Elan pumping this. 
Right. 

947
00:50:05,500 --> 00:50:08,200
And then eventually all kind of 
hit escape velocity and then 

948
00:50:08,200 --> 00:50:12,000
We're Off to the Races. 
But like I'd look around now and

949
00:50:12,000 --> 00:50:14,100
I just I don't see what the next
thing. 

950
00:50:14,100 --> 00:50:17,700
It's right. 
And a lot of people were burned,

951
00:50:17,700 --> 00:50:20,900
a lot of people were absolutely 
decimated by this. 

952
00:50:21,200 --> 00:50:23,400
Right. 
You know, some people, some 

953
00:50:23,400 --> 00:50:25,600
people Miss Luna, they got hit 
by Voyager. 

954
00:50:25,600 --> 00:50:28,300
Then they got hit by Celsius and
I think I fucked on that CX and 

955
00:50:28,308 --> 00:50:29,900
the other completely out of the 
game, right? 

956
00:50:29,900 --> 00:50:31,200
You have a lot of these people, 
right? 

957
00:50:31,200 --> 00:50:34,800
And it's not just retail. 
It's institutional guys its mark

958
00:50:34,900 --> 00:50:37,100
And makers and and everyone in 
between. 

959
00:50:37,100 --> 00:50:40,900
So, you know, not to be all, you
know, kind of Doom and Gloom. 

960
00:50:40,900 --> 00:50:43,100
That's, that's not, that's not 
what I'm trying to say here. 

961
00:50:43,100 --> 00:50:46,000
I'm just, I'm just trying to be 
practical about, you know, 

962
00:50:46,008 --> 00:50:48,900
managing expectations around 
narratives and and right now I 

963
00:50:48,908 --> 00:50:51,600
just, you know, quite frankly. 
I don't see where we turn this 

964
00:50:51,600 --> 00:50:53,500
around. 
Obviously, any of this can, you 

965
00:50:53,500 --> 00:50:56,700
know, can change it, a drop of a
hat and, you know, some some 

966
00:50:56,700 --> 00:51:00,300
wonderful new Catalyst can enter
into the picture but, you know, 

967
00:51:00,400 --> 00:51:04,300
at the moment it doesn't look 
Bleak and, you know, I hope the 

968
00:51:04,308 --> 00:51:07,100
real building there's our other 
building stuff to to Really push

969
00:51:07,100 --> 00:51:16,200
this forward when the time 
comes, I think we might be 

970
00:51:16,200 --> 00:51:18,700
overthinking it. 
We know there's a, there's 

971
00:51:19,000 --> 00:51:22,100
millions and millions of big 
Corners all around the world and

972
00:51:22,100 --> 00:51:24,400
they allocate to bitcoin when 
they're making money. 

973
00:51:24,400 --> 00:51:28,600
So, you know, long story short, 
when the, when your economies of

974
00:51:28,600 --> 00:51:32,700
your various countries and 
regions improve then the people 

975
00:51:32,700 --> 00:51:35,800
will have more money to save and
then you can put more of it into

976
00:51:35,800 --> 00:51:39,300
Bitcoin or your preferred asset.
It's really as simple as that. 

977
00:51:39,400 --> 00:51:42,100
And as long as the adoption 
rate, over time for Bitcoin is 

978
00:51:42,100 --> 00:51:44,600
going up, then price gradually 
over time. 

979
00:51:44,700 --> 00:51:50,200
We'll go up but you're right as 
for now I mean I think we just 

980
00:51:50,200 --> 00:51:53,400
hit a. 
Did we just officially crack the

981
00:51:53,800 --> 00:51:56,600
previous month? 
Low looks like we did Dylan. 

982
00:51:57,700 --> 00:52:02,800
Oh no. 
Yeah I mean I think it's obvious

983
00:52:02,800 --> 00:52:06,300
I guess Genesis just announced 
that there's a basically in 

984
00:52:06,300 --> 00:52:09,400
toxic bankruptcy if because 
because no one, no one could 

985
00:52:09,400 --> 00:52:12,300
give them money over the weekend
to make sense, guys, because no 

986
00:52:12,300 --> 00:52:15,500
one has any more money. 
It's, you know, Like there's 

987
00:52:15,500 --> 00:52:21,000
just no no one wants to plug a 
billion dollar hole in a loan 

988
00:52:21,000 --> 00:52:23,600
book. 
I don't really like it was 

989
00:52:23,600 --> 00:52:25,700
obviously the fu Xing to like 
the market you know, kind of 

990
00:52:25,700 --> 00:52:28,500
like a pump fake higher when 
Finance you know, supposedly 

991
00:52:28,500 --> 00:52:31,700
bailed out at The X and there 
was the headlines of which I, 

992
00:52:32,100 --> 00:52:34,600
which I shared when I first was 
announced in that 10 minutes 

993
00:52:34,600 --> 00:52:36,800
after Chris was some logical 
thinking. 

994
00:52:36,800 --> 00:52:40,400
And like I was like I don't want
to be like a doom doom or here 

995
00:52:40,900 --> 00:52:42,900
but like anybody that's like 
celebrating because they have 

996
00:52:42,900 --> 00:52:45,900
funds on FTX and finance has 
come To bail you out. 

997
00:52:46,500 --> 00:52:49,100
Do you really think? 
She's he likes to donate money 

998
00:52:49,100 --> 00:52:50,600
for no reason. 
It's easy. 

999
00:52:50,600 --> 00:52:54,500
Also an effective altruist like 
you know, there's kind of a joke

1000
00:52:54,500 --> 00:52:57,900
there but no, no one has any 
interest in buying up impaired 

1001
00:52:57,900 --> 00:52:59,900
assets, right? 
All that, all that. 

1002
00:52:59,900 --> 00:53:03,600
Your liquidity problem, quote. 
Unquote means is that you're at,

1003
00:53:03,600 --> 00:53:05,800
there's an asset liability 
mismatch, which means you would 

1004
00:53:05,800 --> 00:53:08,900
need to liquidate your assets. 
Which means selling. 

1005
00:53:09,500 --> 00:53:14,100
So like you know, Genesis is it 
hasn't, you know, billion-dollar

1006
00:53:14,100 --> 00:53:17,400
impairment and who But DCd has 
and but they adopted by Nets of 

1007
00:53:17,400 --> 00:53:18,300
the weekend. 
It's easy. 

1008
00:53:18,300 --> 00:53:20,700
Probably did the same thing. 
Said, alright, cool. 

1009
00:53:20,700 --> 00:53:24,800
Let me see your book showed in 
his book and he goes, no, I 

1010
00:53:24,808 --> 00:53:28,300
don't, I don't want to buy that 
for any forever, even $0, I've 

1011
00:53:28,300 --> 00:53:31,900
no interest. 
And so like, yeah, what's in a 

1012
00:53:31,900 --> 00:53:33,500
market Without A lender of Last 
Resort? 

1013
00:53:33,500 --> 00:53:35,700
This is, like, I'm just trying 
to stress this in a market with 

1014
00:53:35,700 --> 00:53:38,100
that. 
A lender of last resort with all

1015
00:53:38,100 --> 00:53:41,400
these lending and credit desks 
and leverage and what you can't,

1016
00:53:41,400 --> 00:53:44,100
and what you can see in which I 
originally like, I think I 

1017
00:53:44,100 --> 00:53:46,700
leaned on a Ittle bit too heavy 
and my analysis. 

1018
00:53:46,900 --> 00:53:49,200
What you can see is there 
actually is a good amount of 

1019
00:53:49,200 --> 00:53:53,000
transparent data in terms of 
Leverage, on the derivative 

1020
00:53:53,000 --> 00:53:54,700
exchanges that you can see in 
real-time. 

1021
00:53:54,700 --> 00:53:57,300
And some people will say, okay, 
yeah, that data or whatnot, 

1022
00:53:57,500 --> 00:53:59,700
maybe it maybe it is. 
But I think in terms of the 

1023
00:53:59,700 --> 00:54:02,200
amount of transparent leverage, 
you can see, you can see, you 

1024
00:54:02,207 --> 00:54:04,300
know, Futures open interest. 
See me open interest, you can 

1025
00:54:04,300 --> 00:54:07,600
see the funding rates for these 
a quarterly or monthly features.

1026
00:54:07,600 --> 00:54:10,200
You can see where they're 
trading to relative to the spot 

1027
00:54:10,200 --> 00:54:13,600
market rate and even kind of, 
you know, give get a pretty good

1028
00:54:13,600 --> 00:54:16,700
estimation. 
Approximation of like the net 

1029
00:54:16,700 --> 00:54:20,300
leverage in the system, what the
collateral value is of that but 

1030
00:54:20,300 --> 00:54:22,300
what's not? 
What was what was much more 

1031
00:54:22,300 --> 00:54:25,200
opaque and prevalent than I 
originally thought was amount of

1032
00:54:25,200 --> 00:54:27,700
time like off-balance-sheet 
Leverage or private leverage 

1033
00:54:27,700 --> 00:54:30,000
rather. 
And so when Genesis which you 

1034
00:54:30,000 --> 00:54:32,900
know is making tens of billions 
of dollars of loans and doing a 

1035
00:54:32,908 --> 00:54:35,900
bunch of derivative volume, and 
all this other stuff says, yeah,

1036
00:54:35,900 --> 00:54:38,100
we're bankrupt, or, you know, 
we're not bankrupt. 

1037
00:54:38,300 --> 00:54:41,600
We have liquidity issues because
we had, you know, a billion 

1038
00:54:41,600 --> 00:54:44,400
dollars in the UST Ponzi and a 
billion dollars of exposure. 

1039
00:54:44,800 --> 00:54:48,100
With Chibi Chibi DC, collateral 
with three arrows. 

1040
00:54:48,500 --> 00:54:53,100
And then, you know what was just
a lot of that lateralized loons 

1041
00:54:53,100 --> 00:54:56,900
to bitcoin miners. 
But like, why would you collect,

1042
00:54:56,900 --> 00:54:59,700
why would you give him money for
their machines when they're 

1043
00:54:59,700 --> 00:55:02,300
correlated assets? 
Yes, it's Madness. 

1044
00:55:02,300 --> 00:55:05,400
They also had 200 million on ft 
x + 4, a window. 

1045
00:55:05,400 --> 00:55:08,000
Like, I had talked to people 
with, with a lot of funds on 

1046
00:55:08,000 --> 00:55:09,900
Genesis, and I was like, what 
are your thoughts? 

1047
00:55:09,900 --> 00:55:13,000
And, and they relate to me, they
were talking a privately and I 

1048
00:55:13,008 --> 00:55:16,200
like way, they say they're fine.
I was like yeah they'll always 

1049
00:55:16,200 --> 00:55:18,700
say they're fine and they got 
their assets off. 

1050
00:55:18,900 --> 00:55:21,100
They say they're fine for 24 
hours. 

1051
00:55:21,300 --> 00:55:24,000
Yeah. 
It's like genesis like, oh yeah.

1052
00:55:24,000 --> 00:55:25,500
We're making announcement 
tomorrow morning. 

1053
00:55:25,500 --> 00:55:27,400
And it's like, they're not going
to make an announcement if 

1054
00:55:27,400 --> 00:55:30,300
things are good guys. 
So it's, I mean, yeah, I don't 

1055
00:55:30,300 --> 00:55:31,400
know what happens with our loan 
Buck. 

1056
00:55:31,400 --> 00:55:34,500
I don't know their exposure. 
Like, most of the stuff I almost

1057
00:55:34,500 --> 00:55:38,700
honestly use Twitter as of like,
a public Journal of my, my 

1058
00:55:38,700 --> 00:55:41,900
thoughts for things at the time.
And and really like I don't have

1059
00:55:42,100 --> 00:55:43,800
aside from Jenny. 
I just dishing out some 

1060
00:55:44,100 --> 00:55:46,700
occasional out. 
Alpha at the start of this whole

1061
00:55:46,700 --> 00:55:48,800
thing don't really have like any
inside connections here. 

1062
00:55:48,800 --> 00:55:51,200
It's more. 
So just like okay here's a here.

1063
00:55:51,200 --> 00:55:53,400
The things we can piece together
publicly, you know, they 

1064
00:55:53,400 --> 00:55:55,600
publicly announced her 
relationship with three arrows 

1065
00:55:55,600 --> 00:55:59,500
or or you know, we know that 
three hours is going to Genesis 

1066
00:55:59,500 --> 00:56:04,200
for for you know this gbtc are 
betrayed and buying and taking 

1067
00:56:04,200 --> 00:56:06,400
their Bitcoin and getting 
Bitcoin collateral. 

1068
00:56:06,500 --> 00:56:07,700
All right? 
You know pledging that getting 

1069
00:56:07,700 --> 00:56:10,600
the DVD shares pledging that as 
collateral to get more Bitcoins 

1070
00:56:10,600 --> 00:56:13,100
to Pummel into the same trade 
and like all those things off 

1071
00:56:13,100 --> 00:56:17,000
with the original Help? 
What was it 1.3? 

1072
00:56:17,000 --> 00:56:21,800
1.5 billion in Bitcoin traded 
for the equivalent in u.s. 

1073
00:56:22,100 --> 00:56:23,700
UST. 
Stable. 

1074
00:56:23,900 --> 00:56:27,500
The Tara lunacy of a coin. 
It's, there's no way they got 

1075
00:56:27,500 --> 00:56:30,000
out of that, you know, 
unscathed, that, that was 

1076
00:56:30,000 --> 00:56:34,100
probably a huge 100% L and so 
yeah. 

1077
00:56:34,100 --> 00:56:36,900
It's like and you know, we could
find out that three arrows, 

1078
00:56:36,900 --> 00:56:41,600
pledged a vax and and you know 
whatever, hell other altcoins 

1079
00:56:41,600 --> 00:56:44,900
was collateral. 
It's like, yeah, I think I 

1080
00:56:44,900 --> 00:56:46,800
honestly think Bitcoin, 
collateralized loans that are 

1081
00:56:46,800 --> 00:56:50,400
very, very responsible LTV with,
you know, margin requirements, 

1082
00:56:51,000 --> 00:56:54,300
it's something that is honestly 
not bad and is in his good like 

1083
00:56:54,300 --> 00:56:56,700
that fight like that 
financialization, for an asset 

1084
00:56:56,700 --> 00:57:00,400
that trade 24/7. 365 is probably
a good thing. 

1085
00:57:00,400 --> 00:57:03,700
And I think that in the future 
that those sort of loans over 

1086
00:57:03,700 --> 00:57:05,900
collateralized in nature, 
especially if Bitcoin becomes 

1087
00:57:05,900 --> 00:57:10,300
less volatile will you know, be 
very entrenched in the global 

1088
00:57:10,300 --> 00:57:12,500
economy. 
I mean Bitcoin is objectively if

1089
00:57:12,500 --> 00:57:17,200
it's over collateralized much 
better in Adderall than how 

1090
00:57:17,200 --> 00:57:20,500
house right, like just but it's 
just still very mature. 

1091
00:57:20,500 --> 00:57:23,900
It's still very liquid but, you 
know, theoretically 24/7 365. 

1092
00:57:23,900 --> 00:57:27,100
It's all fungible, like this can
work, but the amount of shit 

1093
00:57:27,100 --> 00:57:32,300
coin, leverage and like, gpgc, 
Leverage and unsecured leverage,

1094
00:57:32,300 --> 00:57:34,100
right? 
Like three arrows, borrowing 

1095
00:57:34,100 --> 00:57:36,900
from Voyager being like wink, 
wink, guys, like 600 million, 

1096
00:57:37,400 --> 00:57:39,800
like all of that, just needs to 
get wiped and it's and it's in 

1097
00:57:39,800 --> 00:57:41,400
the process of getting wiped, 
right? 

1098
00:57:41,400 --> 00:57:44,500
Like no one, we are well in that
process but we're not going to 

1099
00:57:44,500 --> 00:57:47,300
bother. 
Them until any of that Mark to 

1100
00:57:47,300 --> 00:57:50,200
Market. 
You know, garbage essentially is

1101
00:57:50,200 --> 00:57:52,700
just is just utterly white and 
you know, there's a clearing 

1102
00:57:52,700 --> 00:57:55,100
rate and we're going to whatever
that clearing right is we're 

1103
00:57:55,100 --> 00:57:58,000
going to find it and and so you 
know buckle up because it's 

1104
00:57:58,000 --> 00:57:59,200
going to be, it's gonna be fun 
one. 

1105
00:58:01,100 --> 00:58:04,300
Yeah if I had to guess I'd say 
Post New Year's not before New 

1106
00:58:04,300 --> 00:58:08,000
Year's for a little context. 
Remember everyone remembers in 

1107
00:58:08,000 --> 00:58:12,100
early May when Tara Luna UST 
absolutely collapsed. 

1108
00:58:12,400 --> 00:58:17,200
It took a good boy for weeks 
over 40 Days for a Bitcoin to 

1109
00:58:17,200 --> 00:58:19,500
find its new bottom. 
Gotta figure. 

1110
00:58:19,500 --> 00:58:23,200
It's going to take at least that
kind of consolidation for our 

1111
00:58:23,200 --> 00:58:31,100
new bottom. 
Agreed D + +. 

1112
00:58:31,100 --> 00:58:32,800
I see you on the stage. 
We are. 

1113
00:58:32,800 --> 00:58:34,400
I think the plan was to stop at 
five. 

1114
00:58:34,500 --> 00:58:35,600
I'm down to go a little bit 
longer. 

1115
00:58:35,600 --> 00:58:37,100
Chris, I don't know if you have 
time crunch. 

1116
00:58:37,600 --> 00:58:39,400
No, I'm good. 
I like what we're doing. 

1117
00:58:39,400 --> 00:58:41,300
We can keep running it. 
Cool. 

1118
00:58:41,400 --> 00:58:43,700
Let's let's run this for another
15 or 20 minutes. 

1119
00:58:43,700 --> 00:58:46,100
I'm kind of multitasking at the 
moment but if you want to get 

1120
00:58:46,100 --> 00:58:48,300
any other people up here, I mean
people ask us, what are your 

1121
00:58:48,300 --> 00:58:50,600
thoughts on everything? 
I imagined you just have these 

1122
00:58:50,600 --> 00:58:53,400
back in and chilling. 
No, I just wanted to join the 

1123
00:58:53,400 --> 00:58:56,100
conversation and the truth of 
the matter is I just woke up 

1124
00:58:56,100 --> 00:59:00,500
from a nap and I'm kind of Like,
what year is it, what price is 

1125
00:59:00,500 --> 00:59:03,500
Bitcoin? 
Uh, y-you know, I don't normally

1126
00:59:03,500 --> 00:59:05,700
look to the news. 
I don't normally track the 

1127
00:59:05,700 --> 00:59:09,800
price, but I do see that Bitcoin
has dipped another 5% today. 

1128
00:59:09,800 --> 00:59:14,800
So I'm assuming it's based on 
this news that I guess Alameda 

1129
00:59:14,800 --> 00:59:17,600
already had losses of several 
billion even before this year, 

1130
00:59:17,600 --> 00:59:19,500
is that correct? 
I like I said, I just woke up 

1131
00:59:19,500 --> 00:59:21,500
from like a coma. 
I have no idea what. 

1132
00:59:21,700 --> 00:59:30,100
Yeah. 
NSS apparently, is that they 

1133
00:59:30,100 --> 00:59:34,900
requested a billion by Monday as
in today, talked to by Nets over

1134
00:59:34,900 --> 00:59:38,600
the weekend and there was no 
interest. 

1135
00:59:38,700 --> 00:59:42,700
So, you know, whatever that loan
book is, I don't know. 

1136
00:59:42,800 --> 00:59:46,200
But I think the worry is, you 
know, just that the kind of the,

1137
00:59:46,200 --> 00:59:49,200
the daisy chain of, no, no one 
willing to really burn money to 

1138
00:59:49,200 --> 00:59:51,500
kind of plug. 
This lending, desk, this loan 

1139
00:59:51,500 --> 00:59:54,100
book. 
That's, you know, toxic waste. 

1140
00:59:54,700 --> 00:59:57,900
And so, you know, what are the 
implications there and maybe 

1141
00:59:57,900 --> 00:59:59,600
it's them. 
Selling, maybe it's given 

1142
00:59:59,600 --> 01:00:03,100
front-running. 
Maybe it's you know, like I saw 

1143
01:00:03,100 --> 01:00:06,200
Alex relation is just so 
anecdotal but the CEO River he 

1144
01:00:06,200 --> 01:00:08,800
always likes to post, you know, 
the buy sell orders and rivers 

1145
01:00:08,800 --> 01:00:11,300
the Bitcoin only exchange. 
And you know that I think is 

1146
01:00:11,300 --> 01:00:15,000
that high conviction there, you 
know, signal to noise on a 

1147
01:00:15,008 --> 01:00:17,200
Bitcoin only exchange like River
versus you know, some of these 

1148
01:00:17,200 --> 01:00:20,400
other casinos and they read a 
33% by rate, right? 

1149
01:00:20,400 --> 01:00:23,100
So like there's just a lot of 
there's a lot of fear out there 

1150
01:00:23,100 --> 01:00:29,900
that people are just, you know, 
just just dumping Yeah, I like 

1151
01:00:29,900 --> 01:00:34,000
that you said about sort of like
what does a saying Lo and look 

1152
01:00:34,000 --> 01:00:36,800
like, in a Bitcoin world like, 
you know, a high loan-to-value 

1153
01:00:36,800 --> 01:00:40,200
ratio over collateralized, High,
interest rate and that's like 

1154
01:00:40,200 --> 01:00:42,000
what they're doing over at 
Unchained capital. 

1155
01:00:42,500 --> 01:00:46,400
And I think like that's kind of 
the only saying version of 

1156
01:00:46,400 --> 01:00:49,400
lending that I can see and but 
people didn't want to use those 

1157
01:00:49,400 --> 01:00:51,900
products because the interest 
rate of course is much higher 

1158
01:00:51,900 --> 01:00:55,100
like 11%. 
But at the same time it's like 

1159
01:00:55,100 --> 01:00:58,500
would you rather pay 11% or 
would you rather let go Lose 

1160
01:00:58,500 --> 01:01:02,600
your loan and so far, they've 
never lost, they've never had 

1161
01:01:02,600 --> 01:01:03,500
it. 
They've never experienced a 

1162
01:01:03,500 --> 01:01:07,200
single loss of a loan product, 
for any person in their history 

1163
01:01:07,200 --> 01:01:10,800
of their operation. 
So, you know, I know there's 

1164
01:01:10,800 --> 01:01:13,700
always risk involved with that 
kind of thing, but I really have

1165
01:01:13,700 --> 01:01:15,800
to give it to like the good 
actors in the space. 

1166
01:01:17,400 --> 01:01:20,900
Yeah, 100% I think like, you 
know, kind of, you know, 

1167
01:01:20,900 --> 01:01:23,800
extrapolating this out in the, 
you know, whether a couple of 

1168
01:01:23,800 --> 01:01:27,500
years from now, or when there's 
more adoption from say the tread

1169
01:01:27,500 --> 01:01:31,200
Pi system, I imagine Bitcoin is 
collateral as just similar to 

1170
01:01:31,200 --> 01:01:34,400
like, say, you know, if you're a
private client at Goldman Sachs,

1171
01:01:34,400 --> 01:01:38,600
you can borrow against your, 
your Apple stock at like fed 

1172
01:01:38,600 --> 01:01:42,000
funds, plus 50 basis points or 
something or like, you know, 

1173
01:01:42,000 --> 01:01:45,700
like you could basically 
throughout 2020 and 2021, you 

1174
01:01:45,700 --> 01:01:49,200
know, just borrow it. 
Zero or like zero, you know, 50 

1175
01:01:49,200 --> 01:01:51,900
basis points against your 
against your brokerage account, 

1176
01:01:51,900 --> 01:01:53,700
right? 
So like fact that Bitcoin trades

1177
01:01:53,700 --> 01:01:57,600
24/7 365 and isn't. 
As when I say like is more 

1178
01:01:57,600 --> 01:01:59,700
liquid, I don't mean an absolute
dollar terms. 

1179
01:01:59,700 --> 01:02:02,700
It's far less liquid than 
Global, you know, even some 

1180
01:02:02,700 --> 01:02:04,400
single name, Global equities at 
the moment. 

1181
01:02:04,400 --> 01:02:06,800
But nevermind foreign exchange 
markets or or you know these 

1182
01:02:06,800 --> 01:02:09,900
other these other debt markets 
but when you think of like you 

1183
01:02:09,900 --> 01:02:13,200
know what could a world where 
Bitcoins 10 trillion dollar 

1184
01:02:13,200 --> 01:02:15,900
market cap, you know how does 
that like collateralized debt 

1185
01:02:15,900 --> 01:02:17,100
look like in that scenario? 
I think. 

1186
01:02:17,200 --> 01:02:20,500
It looks a lot like the unchain 
Capital model where it's over 

1187
01:02:20,500 --> 01:02:22,900
collateralized. 
Potentially, it's in a 

1188
01:02:22,908 --> 01:02:25,000
transparent multi sake where 
they give you a key to so you 

1189
01:02:25,000 --> 01:02:27,600
feel better but they're not 
rehypothecation. 

1190
01:02:27,600 --> 01:02:30,400
It staying in that address, you 
can see it and then you know, at

1191
01:02:30,400 --> 01:02:33,500
some level where it's in theory,
this is a no lost business, 

1192
01:02:33,500 --> 01:02:36,100
right over collateralize, 
Bitcoin lending if you're not 

1193
01:02:36,100 --> 01:02:41,200
going and hunting in D5 
protocols and UST or engaging 

1194
01:02:41,200 --> 01:02:46,000
in, you know, directional gbtc 
Arbitrage that blows up if gray 

1195
01:02:46,000 --> 01:02:48,700
scale goes from a Premium to a 
discount for the first time 

1196
01:02:48,700 --> 01:02:50,400
ever. 
But if you're not doing these 

1197
01:02:50,400 --> 01:02:53,200
things and you're just, and I 
think part of the reason is D 

1198
01:02:53,200 --> 01:02:58,100
plus Unchained charging 9% is 
like, unchain could charge fed 

1199
01:02:58,100 --> 01:03:02,400
funds, plus 20, you know, 200 
basis points, like a traditional

1200
01:03:02,400 --> 01:03:05,000
bank, but they are a bit coin 
business, right? 

1201
01:03:05,000 --> 01:03:07,300
So they struggle with and they 
take additional financing from 

1202
01:03:07,300 --> 01:03:10,800
like neidig and other people for
their loan business because 

1203
01:03:10,800 --> 01:03:12,800
they're doing things on bitcoin 
terms. 

1204
01:03:13,000 --> 01:03:15,200
And so, they're not really 
interested in letting like, 

1205
01:03:15,200 --> 01:03:17,000
lending money for 9%, I guess, 
maybe. 

1206
01:03:17,200 --> 01:03:19,100
This past year, that would have 
been pretty good trade instead 

1207
01:03:19,100 --> 01:03:22,500
of instead of buying Bitcoin. 
But, you know, in terms of it 

1208
01:03:22,500 --> 01:03:24,900
they want to actually buy a 
bunch of Bitcoin and they're 

1209
01:03:24,900 --> 01:03:28,000
hurt or it's not nine percent, 
but it's you know, they're 

1210
01:03:28,000 --> 01:03:30,700
actually operating on a Bitcoin 
standard as a Bitcoin business 

1211
01:03:30,800 --> 01:03:32,900
for better or worse. 
So I think it could be really 

1212
01:03:32,900 --> 01:03:35,600
interesting to look at like 
Bitcoin as and I've done a lot 

1213
01:03:35,600 --> 01:03:38,200
of writing a lot of thinking 
about this about, you know, 

1214
01:03:38,200 --> 01:03:42,200
Bitcoin especially is it, you 
know, in theory that maybe it 

1215
01:03:42,200 --> 01:03:44,100
never becomes a not volatile 
asset. 

1216
01:03:44,100 --> 01:03:47,500
Maybe it's always a TiVo last 
set but I think Twenty years 

1217
01:03:47,500 --> 01:03:50,200
down the line. 
Bitcoin still probably trades 

1218
01:03:50,200 --> 01:03:53,100
like a risk asset, maybe it 
doesn't, but it trades, you 

1219
01:03:53,100 --> 01:03:55,800
know, much much similar to like 
equities at a much, much larger 

1220
01:03:55,800 --> 01:03:59,600
scale and so collateral. 
Not in that world is a lot 

1221
01:03:59,600 --> 01:04:02,200
different and the risk-free 
rate, you know, they're the rate

1222
01:04:02,200 --> 01:04:06,300
you get on that on that 
collateralized loan is similar 

1223
01:04:06,300 --> 01:04:09,800
to what you get with a mortgage 
today or something, because it's

1224
01:04:09,800 --> 01:04:11,900
just, it's a, it's an if you do 
it, right. 

1225
01:04:11,900 --> 01:04:14,500
It's a no-loss business from a, 
from a lending perspective. 

1226
01:04:29,400 --> 01:04:31,400
Okay, does anyone else have 
anything they want? 

1227
01:04:31,400 --> 01:04:32,600
Simon. 
Maybe you want to invite more 

1228
01:04:32,600 --> 01:04:36,400
people up or just riff? 
I don't don't wanna don't hog 

1229
01:04:36,400 --> 01:04:41,100
the mic. 
Yeah, I'll jump in just, you 

1230
01:04:41,100 --> 01:04:44,800
know, a couple of other, you 
know, interesting points on this

1231
01:04:44,800 --> 01:04:48,800
whole chaotic situation 
unfolding. 

1232
01:04:48,800 --> 01:04:51,800
I know there's been, there's 
been a little bit of speculation

1233
01:04:51,800 --> 01:04:56,400
around, silver Gates, exposure 
/, involvement in all this and 

1234
01:04:56,400 --> 01:04:59,100
all raise this because I think 
it's an interesting point and 

1235
01:04:59,100 --> 01:05:02,000
certainly one that you know, the
begs a little bit more 

1236
01:05:02,000 --> 01:05:05,100
investigation. 
Yeah, as some of us know that, 

1237
01:05:05,100 --> 01:05:07,100
you know, that have been in the 
space for a while that are that 

1238
01:05:07,100 --> 01:05:09,300
have been wire. 
Add money across to multiple 

1239
01:05:09,300 --> 01:05:13,900
exchanges or big counterparty. 
Silver Gates, a huge, huge piece

1240
01:05:13,900 --> 01:05:17,100
of the the internal 
infrastructure of the ecosystem.

1241
01:05:17,200 --> 01:05:20,000
And, you know, one of the, one 
of the things people have been 

1242
01:05:20,000 --> 01:05:22,500
speculating about is how much 
exposure do they potentially 

1243
01:05:22,500 --> 01:05:26,600
have in the collapse. 
And so thus, exposure could come

1244
01:05:26,600 --> 01:05:31,600
in the form of actual US dollar 
loans out to FTX or any other 

1245
01:05:31,600 --> 01:05:33,700
any other Affiliated 
counterparties. 

1246
01:05:33,700 --> 01:05:36,500
You know we don't know yet. 
Luckily they're a public company

1247
01:05:36,500 --> 01:05:41,400
and so all the For will surface,
you know, in their Q4 report. 

1248
01:05:41,500 --> 01:05:45,100
So it'll be a while but you know
it'll be interesting to see how 

1249
01:05:45,100 --> 01:05:48,400
that develops and you know 
potential corollary to this is 

1250
01:05:48,400 --> 01:05:52,500
you know while this whole kind 
of FTX bankruptcy proceeding 

1251
01:05:52,500 --> 01:05:56,400
continues you know it'll be 
pretty damn clear. 

1252
01:05:56,900 --> 01:06:00,200
That one of the things that 
they'll be charged for is wire 

1253
01:06:00,200 --> 01:06:05,700
fraud because essentially what 
they would have 2X was doing and

1254
01:06:05,900 --> 01:06:08,600
I know from personal experience 
and And certainly, I can 

1255
01:06:08,600 --> 01:06:12,700
corroborate through others that 
when you would wire money into 

1256
01:06:12,700 --> 01:06:16,800
have TX, you weren't always 
wiring it to their entities, it 

1257
01:06:16,800 --> 01:06:22,300
was either an Alameda sub or 
Alameda directly and and that 

1258
01:06:22,300 --> 01:06:25,400
is, you know, I'm not a lawyer. 
And so please don't take any of 

1259
01:06:25,400 --> 01:06:29,800
this as, you know, legal fact. 
But that is essentially my 

1260
01:06:29,800 --> 01:06:33,200
understanding what wire fraud is
and and that's that's going to 

1261
01:06:33,200 --> 01:06:36,800
be a problem. 
And so, you know, it also opens 

1262
01:06:36,800 --> 01:06:39,100
up the question too. 
How many other financial 

1263
01:06:39,100 --> 01:06:41,900
institutions outside of Silver 
Gate that were tied into that? 

1264
01:06:41,900 --> 01:06:45,700
CX ecosystem could be 
potentially dinged for this sort

1265
01:06:45,700 --> 01:06:49,400
of thing. 
So, yeah, just it's a developing

1266
01:06:49,400 --> 01:06:51,400
piece and there's obviously not 
a lot of info on this. 

1267
01:06:51,400 --> 01:06:55,000
But I would say this will be an 
interesting kind of part of the 

1268
01:06:55,000 --> 01:06:56,500
narrative and the in the coming 
weeks. 

1269
01:06:57,500 --> 01:07:00,000
So Jenny I've been tracking a 
Silver Gate stuff and me 

1270
01:07:00,000 --> 01:07:01,300
dragging it. 
I guess to the best of my 

1271
01:07:01,300 --> 01:07:04,800
ability. 
But here's what I know, right. 

1272
01:07:04,800 --> 01:07:06,500
And I'm about to link one second
here. 

1273
01:07:06,500 --> 01:07:09,300
I'm just putting my charger. 
I'm about to link in the nest. 

1274
01:07:09,300 --> 01:07:11,500
For anyone that wants to follow,
along this thread again. 

1275
01:07:11,700 --> 01:07:13,500
There's no conclusions here. 
These are, these are just 

1276
01:07:13,500 --> 01:07:15,900
questions weirdest asking 
questions, silver gets a 

1277
01:07:15,900 --> 01:07:19,500
publicly-traded name and, and 
basically all this info that 

1278
01:07:19,500 --> 01:07:22,400
Jenny and I are talking about or
that the group is talking about 

1279
01:07:22,500 --> 01:07:25,200
is, is public info, right? 
There's, there's no Insider 

1280
01:07:25,200 --> 01:07:26,600
information, and this is on the 
website. 

1281
01:07:26,600 --> 01:07:30,000
So I just pin this to the top of
the nest, two people can fall 

1282
01:07:30,000 --> 01:07:33,600
into thread. 
And so Silver Gate was - 46% 

1283
01:07:33,600 --> 01:07:35,900
going into the FDX thing. 
We're talking to the send 

1284
01:07:35,900 --> 01:07:38,300
Network essien, Silver Gate. 
At work. 

1285
01:07:38,500 --> 01:07:41,400
Some of the names involved here 
is as FTX coinbase, paxos 

1286
01:07:41,400 --> 01:07:43,900
crypto.com, Gemini, Kraken 
bitstamp Circle. 

1287
01:07:43,900 --> 01:07:47,200
And here's a quote from FTX from
sandbag Madrid himself. 

1288
01:07:47,400 --> 01:07:50,200
This was on the Silver Gate 
website and I believe it's been 

1289
01:07:50,300 --> 01:07:52,100
since removed from the Silver 
Gate website. 

1290
01:07:52,100 --> 01:07:54,300
But this was the night that I 
went on the website and saw this

1291
01:07:54,300 --> 01:07:57,300
is life as a crypto firm can be 
divided up into before, so we're

1292
01:07:57,300 --> 01:07:59,900
getting after Silver Gate. 
It's hard to overstate how much 

1293
01:07:59,900 --> 01:08:02,800
it revolutionized banking for 
blockchain companies. 

1294
01:08:02,900 --> 01:08:04,900
So, looking at their stock has 
been pummeled. 

1295
01:08:04,900 --> 01:08:07,500
That's gets down again. 
Today, I believe I closed the 

1296
01:08:07,500 --> 01:08:08,200
day. 
A down. 

1297
01:08:08,200 --> 01:08:10,500
I mean, this is not a big-name. 
It's a 1 billion dollar market 

1298
01:08:10,500 --> 01:08:13,000
cap, maybe even lower. 
Let me check with their their 

1299
01:08:13,000 --> 01:08:23,700
stock did today, like which is, 
which is fine. 

1300
01:08:23,700 --> 01:08:25,700
And I honestly believe them in 
that scenario. 

1301
01:08:26,000 --> 01:08:29,300
But here's the thing, right? 
The day before the FTX collapse,

1302
01:08:29,600 --> 01:08:33,899
the CEO and the CEO, I'm sorry. 
The head risk manager of the 

1303
01:08:33,899 --> 01:08:39,200
firm and who else was it? 
The Manager in the president or 

1304
01:08:39,200 --> 01:08:41,800
scrapped. 
And and those two positions 

1305
01:08:41,800 --> 01:08:43,899
happened to be. 
I believe the brother-in-law and

1306
01:08:44,000 --> 01:08:48,600
I think the brother of the CEO 
or family or social son-in-law, 

1307
01:08:48,800 --> 01:08:51,000
but now, oh, yes, here's our 
gets real. 

1308
01:08:51,600 --> 01:08:53,500
I've been digging into it 
because I'm very, very 

1309
01:08:53,500 --> 01:08:59,000
interested to and for every for 
every place that I find someone 

1310
01:08:59,000 --> 01:09:01,000
saying, oh, they were fired. 
They were scrapped. 

1311
01:09:01,000 --> 01:09:05,500
I find another place where it's 
like, no, this was this was 

1312
01:09:05,899 --> 01:09:10,399
planned organizational. 
Promotions and shuffling and I 

1313
01:09:10,399 --> 01:09:13,700
just don't know what to believe.
Don't believe their lies. 

1314
01:09:13,700 --> 01:09:15,899
Matt, don't believe their lies, 
but I don't know. 

1315
01:09:17,899 --> 01:09:20,100
So great is the one that doesn't
talk. 

1316
01:09:20,100 --> 01:09:22,399
It's it's everyone else's 
talking and Silver Gate, 

1317
01:09:22,399 --> 01:09:24,000
frustratingly doesn't say a 
thing. 

1318
01:09:24,600 --> 01:09:27,300
Yeah. 
So I think what this is and I've

1319
01:09:27,300 --> 01:09:30,600
this is kind of leaning on a 
Alder a little bit or 

1320
01:09:30,600 --> 01:09:31,500
what's-his-name. 
I'm sorry. 

1321
01:09:31,899 --> 01:09:35,000
Marco Diaz, who's a short 
sellers, a Wall Street guy, but 

1322
01:09:35,000 --> 01:09:37,600
he was he was just calling out 
SPF there. 

1323
01:09:37,800 --> 01:09:40,000
Definitive evidence. 
But he was saying for the last 

1324
01:09:40,000 --> 01:09:43,399
few months like, hey guys, like 
when you look at at, you know, 

1325
01:09:43,399 --> 01:09:46,600
financial fraud, this guy's 
taking a lot of boxes and he was

1326
01:09:46,608 --> 01:09:48,000
just highlighting a bunch of 
questions. 

1327
01:09:48,000 --> 01:09:50,899
Then basically Came Upon Silver 
Gate, who their stock has been 

1328
01:09:50,899 --> 01:09:53,100
getting killed. 
They just recently got into 

1329
01:09:53,500 --> 01:09:57,100
money laundering and like South 
America, I believe, maybe South 

1330
01:09:57,100 --> 01:09:59,500
Africa, there's money laundering
charges that arose and their 

1331
01:09:59,500 --> 01:10:01,600
stock was down about 14% one of 
these days. 

1332
01:10:02,000 --> 01:10:05,000
The real, the real thing here is
like Jenia said, when you wire 

1333
01:10:05,000 --> 01:10:07,600
money to FDX, you weren't even 
wearing it too. 

1334
01:10:07,700 --> 01:10:08,700
Fbx. 
You were wearing it to the 

1335
01:10:08,708 --> 01:10:10,700
Alameda entity and it's through 
Silver Gate. 

1336
01:10:10,700 --> 01:10:13,000
And then there's a video, which 
is in the thread, but the 

1337
01:10:13,000 --> 01:10:15,600
original poster of the video 
just went actually private on 

1338
01:10:15,600 --> 01:10:17,500
his Twitter account, crushing 
enough. 

1339
01:10:17,600 --> 01:10:19,700
So we can't we can't see the 
video but it's basically same 

1340
01:10:19,700 --> 01:10:24,500
Trabuco the former CEO of 
Alameda saying like oh yeah, we 

1341
01:10:24,500 --> 01:10:28,300
use a u.s. bank to wire money to
tether and they're like, what 

1342
01:10:28,300 --> 01:10:29,800
banking is? 
Like we can't admit that and I 

1343
01:10:29,800 --> 01:10:32,300
think if you could connect the 
dots, you can probably stumble 

1344
01:10:32,300 --> 01:10:35,300
upon the fact that it was Silver
Gate or the high probability 

1345
01:10:35,300 --> 01:10:38,500
that it was Silver Gate. 
And so again, like I don't think

1346
01:10:38,500 --> 01:10:41,000
they've learned exposure but 
just you know how fractional 

1347
01:10:41,000 --> 01:10:43,500
Reserve Banks work, you need 
deposits to make it work and 

1348
01:10:43,508 --> 01:10:45,400
your mother. 
You know, Falcon X is a small 

1349
01:10:45,400 --> 01:10:47,600
institutional player or I mean 
they're not small but they're 

1350
01:10:47,600 --> 01:10:49,000
really behind the scenes, you 
know. 

1351
01:10:49,000 --> 01:10:51,000
Some some people say they 
actually have, you know, quite 

1352
01:10:51,000 --> 01:10:53,400
quite big size and relevancy 
across the space. 

1353
01:10:53,800 --> 01:10:56,600
They just stopped using the 
inform informed everyone via 

1354
01:10:56,600 --> 01:11:00,200
telegram that they're they're 
they're halting Silver Gate, 

1355
01:11:00,200 --> 01:11:03,300
wires effective immediately due 
to the abundance of caution. 

1356
01:11:03,300 --> 01:11:06,800
So like yeah, so that it's not 
great, right? 

1357
01:11:06,800 --> 01:11:11,600
True And so, so if it's a 
depositor story and silver Gates

1358
01:11:11,600 --> 01:11:14,800
Equity, I, I mean, I'm not a 
banking analyst, I don't claim 

1359
01:11:14,800 --> 01:11:18,200
to be, but a stock getting 
hammered day after day after 

1360
01:11:18,200 --> 01:11:22,600
day, basically, just down only 
and wire fraud, basically, being

1361
01:11:22,600 --> 01:11:26,200
a big reason, their stock took a
20% died, a few days ago and 

1362
01:11:26,200 --> 01:11:29,200
then all of the the Alameda 
stuff that is yet to come from a

1363
01:11:29,208 --> 01:11:32,400
legal perspective and what is 
what these dollar rails. 

1364
01:11:32,400 --> 01:11:34,100
When you look at these 
institutional players like again

1365
01:11:34,100 --> 01:11:36,900
this is all public website, look
up, send network essien, 

1366
01:11:36,900 --> 01:11:39,300
network. 
On Google Images and put into, 

1367
01:11:39,700 --> 01:11:42,300
you know, scroll and they have a
bunch of slides with all these 

1368
01:11:42,300 --> 01:11:45,300
crypto companies, right? 
And so these are dollar rails. 

1369
01:11:45,300 --> 01:11:47,300
So I'm just, you know, all of 
these things. 

1370
01:11:47,300 --> 01:11:49,800
Whether it's like the lending 
desks and bloating or the market

1371
01:11:49,800 --> 01:11:51,900
makers, imploding, or the 
potential. 

1372
01:11:51,900 --> 01:11:54,200
And this is not a hundred 
percent certainty and but the 

1373
01:11:54,200 --> 01:11:57,400
potential for one is basically 
to u.s. regulated banks that 

1374
01:11:57,407 --> 01:12:00,600
serve crypto firms. 
You know, tail risk here. 

1375
01:12:00,600 --> 01:12:04,300
The others I am signature or 
Satan's here, right? 

1376
01:12:04,300 --> 01:12:06,200
Right. 
And I have no idea how to how to

1377
01:12:06,200 --> 01:12:07,600
quantify this probabilities 
probability. 

1378
01:12:07,600 --> 01:12:10,700
Violence, none zero. 
But I know it's nonzero that it 

1379
01:12:10,700 --> 01:12:15,700
happens. 
And I am somewhat sure that in 

1380
01:12:16,000 --> 01:12:19,500
the, you know, event of 
something bad quote-unquote 

1381
01:12:19,500 --> 01:12:22,300
happening, or whether the sperm 
was under or they, you know, 

1382
01:12:22,300 --> 01:12:25,500
everyone else gets out because 
of regulatory reasons, or 

1383
01:12:25,500 --> 01:12:29,300
whatever. 
It's not probably great for net.

1384
01:12:29,300 --> 01:12:33,200
Liquidity coming into the space 
or, you know, circulating around

1385
01:12:33,200 --> 01:12:36,500
the space money sloshing around 
and and losing those dollar 

1386
01:12:36,500 --> 01:12:38,100
rails. 
And, you know, The fact that 

1387
01:12:38,100 --> 01:12:40,600
Circle banks with these guys, 
right? 

1388
01:12:40,700 --> 01:12:44,700
So I, yeah, I'm no conclusions 
only questions and a lot of this

1389
01:12:44,700 --> 01:12:47,700
stuff just doesn't smell great. 
You know. 

1390
01:12:47,700 --> 01:12:49,800
It does look absolutely. 
Absolutely right. 

1391
01:12:49,800 --> 01:12:52,900
It doesn't, it does not smell 
great and sure enough like of 

1392
01:12:52,900 --> 01:12:57,100
course it's a down only Big Bear
Market is, what's exposing the 

1393
01:12:57,100 --> 01:13:00,400
smell? 
But let me give the other the 

1394
01:13:00,400 --> 01:13:03,500
other side, we're like okay 
yeah. 

1395
01:13:03,500 --> 01:13:07,500
If you, if you had been buying 
puts or been short Silver Gate, 

1396
01:13:07,600 --> 01:13:10,400
For this past month. 
Obviously, you're very happy 

1397
01:13:10,400 --> 01:13:14,400
ever since FTX, imploded. 
But if you're just hearing about

1398
01:13:14,400 --> 01:13:17,100
this for the first time, in this
space, you got to be very 

1399
01:13:17,100 --> 01:13:20,300
careful because what we've also 
seen is silver, Gates, 

1400
01:13:20,300 --> 01:13:23,300
competition, capitulate, and 
outright. 

1401
01:13:23,300 --> 01:13:26,500
Go into bankruptcy, as we speak 
by what happened to block fry. 

1402
01:13:26,500 --> 01:13:28,500
They're gone. 
What's going on with Genesis 

1403
01:13:28,500 --> 01:13:30,500
there soon to be gone, like 
let's go. 

1404
01:13:30,600 --> 01:13:33,300
Like all the sudden they're 
losing their there. 

1405
01:13:33,300 --> 01:13:34,900
What used to be there? 
20, 21. 

1406
01:13:34,900 --> 01:13:37,500
And 22 a do competition there. 
They're gone. 

1407
01:13:38,400 --> 01:13:42,700
Yes, Silver Gate is having his 
time in the in the in the shed 

1408
01:13:42,900 --> 01:13:47,400
but if they survived, they might
be the only ones Still Standing.

1409
01:13:47,800 --> 01:13:51,400
So I don't I feel like honestly 
there's more that we don't know 

1410
01:13:51,400 --> 01:13:53,700
them. 
We do on the flip side, like 

1411
01:13:53,700 --> 01:13:57,200
when we were watching when the 
coin desk article came out about

1412
01:13:57,200 --> 01:14:00,200
ft x and we all learned a 
levitas balance sheet and we 

1413
01:14:00,208 --> 01:14:03,100
learned what a fugazi punsie TT 
took. 

1414
01:14:03,100 --> 01:14:07,300
It was I think you could very 
confidently say short at the 

1415
01:14:07,300 --> 01:14:08,900
hell. 
Oh, this thing's going to zero, 

1416
01:14:09,300 --> 01:14:12,100
I can't say that with Silver 
Gate. 

1417
01:14:12,100 --> 01:14:14,800
And I'd be surprised if anyone 
else can make that claim to 

1418
01:14:15,600 --> 01:14:17,400
know. 
Yeah, I'm by no means like 

1419
01:14:17,600 --> 01:14:20,500
pitching short pieces here that 
and like, by any means, not 

1420
01:14:20,500 --> 01:14:21,900
Financial advice. 
I mean, this is a publicly 

1421
01:14:21,900 --> 01:14:25,000
traded entity and we're just 
talking about it in the open. 

1422
01:14:25,100 --> 01:14:27,900
Yeah, I mean, I definitely 
wouldn't just go blindly a PIN 

1423
01:14:27,900 --> 01:14:31,500
to a short of security, because 
if I talk, you know, banter 

1424
01:14:31,500 --> 01:14:32,600
you're hearing on Twitter 
spaces. 

1425
01:14:32,600 --> 01:14:36,700
And in terms of ftt, imploding, 
it was much, it was a much more 

1426
01:14:36,700 --> 01:14:39,000
visible thing. 
Hey, there's a broad scale. 

1427
01:14:39,000 --> 01:14:41,200
Speculative attack on an 
illiquid altcoin with no natural

1428
01:14:41,200 --> 01:14:43,300
buyers. 
This is a Fed member bank. 

1429
01:14:43,300 --> 01:14:47,000
And, you know, it would be it'd 
be really, really fascinating to

1430
01:14:47,000 --> 01:14:49,200
see what would happen in a bad 
scenario. 

1431
01:14:49,200 --> 01:14:51,300
Considering that their FDIC 
insured. 

1432
01:14:52,000 --> 01:14:54,400
And considering, or if I'd 
member Bank, like, I don't know 

1433
01:14:54,400 --> 01:14:56,200
what would happen. 
So, that's, you know, one of the

1434
01:14:56,200 --> 01:15:00,300
things where, if it does happen,
I mean, it's, it would be very 

1435
01:15:00,300 --> 01:15:02,900
fascinating to see it play out 
because it'd be much more 

1436
01:15:02,900 --> 01:15:05,400
critical to the crypto space. 
But at the same time there's 

1437
01:15:05,400 --> 01:15:08,400
Trad fi spillover effects. 
In application. 

1438
01:15:08,400 --> 01:15:10,700
So I don't know what. 
I agree with you Matt that, you 

1439
01:15:10,708 --> 01:15:14,700
know it's not some opportunity 
to go ape into shorts. 

1440
01:15:14,700 --> 01:15:17,500
Like this is I mean it was 
definitely I think you know 

1441
01:15:17,500 --> 01:15:21,600
pretty good opportunity post 
implosion of FDX but we'll see. 

1442
01:15:21,600 --> 01:15:24,400
We'll see what happens I guess. 
I think I think it's just going 

1443
01:15:24,400 --> 01:15:27,400
to be an interesting time over 
the next 6 months, 6 to 12. 

1444
01:15:27,600 --> 01:15:29,900
Just in terms of like you know, 
the Bitcoin protocol is not 

1445
01:15:29,900 --> 01:15:33,000
going anywhere. 
I think, I think there's still 

1446
01:15:33,000 --> 01:15:37,200
broadly like under the surface 
adoption and you know, Tech 

1447
01:15:37,200 --> 01:15:39,400
being built. 
Which is, which is, I mean, 

1448
01:15:39,400 --> 01:15:41,400
there's no denying that in my 
opinion but the exchange rates 

1449
01:15:41,400 --> 01:15:42,500
going to get absolutely 
pummeled. 

1450
01:15:42,500 --> 01:15:45,900
And a lot of people are gonna, 
you know, are gonna quit gonna, 

1451
01:15:45,900 --> 01:15:47,200
you know, leave going to do 
something else. 

1452
01:15:47,600 --> 01:15:50,600
Say Bitcoins dead and it's a, 
you know, I will see, you will 

1453
01:15:50,600 --> 01:15:52,500
see what happens. 
I think probably he was a 

1454
01:15:52,508 --> 01:15:54,500
natural place to end it. 
I got some work to finish up for

1455
01:15:54,500 --> 01:15:56,000
today. 
I certainly don't want to, you 

1456
01:15:56,000 --> 01:15:58,300
know, if you guys want to like 
hand it off to another space 

1457
01:15:58,300 --> 01:15:59,600
Jenia, I really appreciate you 
coming. 

1458
01:15:59,600 --> 01:16:01,500
Matt D plus plus course for 
hosting. 

1459
01:16:01,500 --> 01:16:03,300
This is a ton of fun. 
I guess. 

1460
01:16:03,300 --> 01:16:06,300
Just maybe I'll give a brief 
hand off to some something you 

1461
01:16:06,300 --> 01:16:08,700
guys can check out if you want. 
We It up some stuff for Bitcoin 

1462
01:16:08,700 --> 01:16:11,100
magazine. 
Pro covered, the let the latest 

1463
01:16:11,100 --> 01:16:14,500
six months I think as well as 
anyone with a Bitcoin native you

1464
01:16:14,800 --> 01:16:16,500
and just kind of, you know, not 
being passing this for being 

1465
01:16:16,500 --> 01:16:18,500
rationalist about about the 
state of things. 

1466
01:16:18,900 --> 01:16:21,500
So if you're interested in that 
Vikram magazine Pro.com, it's in

1467
01:16:21,500 --> 01:16:25,400
my bio shout out to Jan and bit 
Max for being a sponsor of us 

1468
01:16:25,400 --> 01:16:26,700
for a while. 
No longer. 

1469
01:16:26,700 --> 01:16:29,300
But understandably had to 
tighten the belt, respect my 

1470
01:16:29,300 --> 01:16:32,300
friend and and you know we're 
all going to make it wag me. 

1471
01:16:32,300 --> 01:16:35,200
This is going to be a fun bear 
and I certainly am not going 

1472
01:16:35,200 --> 01:16:36,500
anywhere. 
So appreciate y'all. 

1473
01:16:37,700 --> 01:16:38,600
Perfect. 
Thanks Dylan. 

1474
01:16:38,600 --> 01:16:40,500
Appreciate that appreciates his 
Chad. 

1475
01:16:49,200 --> 01:16:51,900
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01:16:51,900 --> 01:16:55,800
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01:17:20,100 --> 01:17:22,700
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01:17:33,700 --> 01:17:36,600
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01:17:43,500 --> 01:17:45,800
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1493
01:17:45,800 --> 01:17:48,500
market and broader macro 
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01:17:48,500 --> 01:17:50,500
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01:17:55,500 --> 01:17:58,500
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