Larry Fink, the largest asset manager in the world, buy
Bitcoin. Ray Daly, the largest fund
manager in the world, buy Bitcoin.
President Trump, president of the United States, buy Bitcoin
your cousin. Oh, Bitcoin's a scam.
It's so terrible. And it's like, look, guys, like
things change. Like Michael Saylor was against
Bitcoin in 2013, right? He changed his mind.
And so intelligence really is the signal of you being able to
change your mind and take action.
We're here with Mark Moss. How are the vibes?
How are you feeling? There's a lot of excitement here
because there's a lot of new things happening and it's been
coming for a long time. But what am I talking about
specifically is the big move of these Bitcoin treasury company
plays. And so we're seeing a brand new
financial asset, the first new financial asset in 500 years
being used in ways to build new financial products and a new
financial system that we've just never seen before.
And it's happening super fast. It's very explosive.
A lot of money is being made. It's given us new terms, new
words, new metrics to measure things that we've never learned
about or heard about before. And there's a whole new group of
people that are here to learn about this.
I like that you say that because I was listening to an interview
with Michael Saylor and he was mentioning how we have sort of
like the traditional finance guys coming in as the new
Bitcoin class. What are your thoughts on that
new Bitcoin class and what can we expect from them?
Is it going to be sort of like the 2015 version of Bitcoin or?
Yeah, so let me just say I'm not as OG as some people.
I started buying Bitcoin in 2015.
It's about 300 bucks at the time when I learned about it and
really learned how it was a tool for freedom and really a tool
how we could win. As a freedom maximalist, I'm all
in. I got to go tell everybody about
it. I've never shut up since.
When you talk about the new class coming in, a lot of the OG
classes like, oh, they don't have the Bitcoin values.
They're not the cypherpunks, they're not here for the right
reasons. They're here for NGU.
Number go up. What I've often said is that you
come for the NGU, which is stay for the freedom.
And so I believe the best way to orange pill somebody is to let
them use a little bit of Bitcoin.
And once their interest is there, they'll Start learning
more about it. And so yes, they're coming for
the NGU. These are corporate types, these
are Wall Street types. They're here because they think
it's the best chance to make money.
And it is. I'm very hopeful that they'll
stay for the cyberpunk values of what Bitcoin stands for.
You're like the goats of simplifying things and having
people like understand them super easily and like easy to
digest. I've heard that many of like
this new wave of bitcoiners that's coming in, especially
seeing them be in, you know, DC for political reasons.
I've heard that some are trying to like centralized Bitcoin
mine. Is that possible?
Yeah. So one of the things that
everybody seems to be afraid of is that this corporatization of
Bitcoin, the financialization of Bitcoin creates that
centralization. And so of course Bitcoin, it's
main attribute is it's decentralized.
And so it was really a bottom up movement of individuals that
started buying it. And now as corporations are
coming, you know, Michael Saylor, MicroStrategy now holds
over 550,000 / 2% of the entire supply.
And a lot of people are like that.
That's centralization. Now he's going to manipulate the
price or he's going to control the network or all these things.
And there's a big misunderstanding.
First thing I would say is 80% of gold is centralized with
central banks, 90% of equities are centralized between like
Vanguard, State Street and BlackRock.
We're talking 8090 percent, 2%, like, come on, right?
We're a long way. But but more importantly, owning
more of the Bitcoin supply doesn't give you control of the
network. Because to the question you've
asked, we have the miners and then we have the nodes.
So the nodes run the database, right?
That's, that's the code and the databases, the nodes have to
achieve consensus. The miners are the ones
processing transactions. So the question that you asked
is there some centralization of the miners that's going under?
So these Bitcoin miners, the public ones are getting very big
and they control a lot of the, the hash power, the power of the
network, but it's all over the world.
And what happens is Bitcoin is, is built off of economic game
theory. So we're all in it for economic
interest to make money. And So what happens is if some
of these public Bitcoin miners, for example, Mara tried this,
they tried to censor blocks. They said they were going to
only mine, oh, fat compliant blocks.
So these are blocks that the government deemed are not
blacklisted, they're not under sanctions, things like that.
They quickly gave that up because they found if they're
censoring blocks, they can't be as financially competitive as
other ones that are open. And so certainly people will
try. I think it's sort of like human
nature to try to control things. Ultimately, I think it fails
because of the open source nature and because of the
incentives that are built in. It's funny, you mentioned about
centralization and I want to kind of steer it to the US
dollar. You recently just had one of
your recent videos blow up and it was about the US dollar being
like devalued, devalued and you talk about the reset, that it's
not a crash, that it's a reset. Can you explain a little bit
about that? Yeah.
So, you know, I'm an optimist. I believe that the future is so
abundant, we are about to see the greatest air of prosperity
in front of us. But there's a lot of Dumors and
they're going to warn you about the market crash coming and the
end of the dollar, like it's some imminent event.
Like any day now, the dollar is going to crash, the world's
going to be over, the financial markets going to crash like any
day. And it's this Dumor narrative
that really came from the gold space.
The only way to sell gold is to tell you that everything is
going to fall apart. And there's this doomsday
scenario where you need gold. But Bitcoin is technology.
Bitcoin is about hope. And So what I was talking about
is, yes, the dollar is crashing. It's a process.
It's not an event. It's not like in 12 months or 24
months, it's going to happen. It's happening.
The dollar continues to lose purchasing power.
And in that video specifically, I was talking about how the US
government actually wants the dollar to continue to devalue.
They want it to get weaker. And when you look at the dollar
strength as measured as the Dixie measured to other
currencies, we can see that we're pretty high historically.
The dollar is very strong compared to historical a median
right now. And so we want to bring that
down to a more historical level, which might be 15 to 20%
devaluation from here. And so when that devalues, then
the converse of that is asset prices go up.
Now, not all asset prices go up at the same rate.
Bitcoin is the most sensitive to that global liquidity.
So as the dollar goes down and the and the global liquidity
goes up, then Bitcoin will go up at a faster rate.
Can you talk about that process? Obviously, it's not going to be
in 12 months or 24 months. Do you think it happened because
of the Trump administration or it had, or it's been something
that's been happening and people are just now waking up to it?
It's a function of the monetary system.
So it's started long before Trump.
It started. I mean, Richard Nixon took us
off the dollar standard and we went from sort of a Bretton
Woods system, a gold back system, to a peer Fiat system.
And so in a peer Fiat system, money is created through debt
issuance. And in that system, the debt
becomes the asset in the system. So then the debt becomes an
asset to get more debt and more debt, right?
And so that system always has to continue to grow.
That's why we need inflation. Deflation is the worst thing
that can happen in that system. So it's a function of the
system. And so each president has spent
more, added more to the debt than the last, to the kind of
point you asked about the Trump administration.
They came in sort of fired up. They're going to balance the
budget, Elon Musk and Doze, they're going to get rid of
fraud and abuse and they're going to balance the budget.
And everyone's thrown in the towel.
Elon Musk has now stepped aside. He said, hey, look, we did great
work. We uncovered great things, but
there's zero appetite to cut the spending in the government.
And so our only hope is to grow our way out of this.
Scott Beset, head of the Treasury, said the same thing
about two weeks ago. He said, look, our best bet is
to grow our way out of this. And so that means two things.
So what do they mean grow our way out of that?
So we have debt and we have GDP. So there's a ratio.
And so right now we're at roughly almost 120% debt to GDP
ratio, but that's a ratio. So we could either lower the
debt or we could raise the GDP. So that's why we're talking
about growing our way out of it. And there's two ways that they
do that. Number one, unleashing
productivity. So bringing manufacturing back
to the US. In order for the US to be
competitive with manufacturing, we need AI, we need automation.
So there's a lot of wealth that'll be created there, a lot
of efficiency gains, but #2 inflation.
So when they inflate the money supply, it pushes the cost of
goods up. And by making things more
expensive, the GDP also goes up. And so that's what they mean by
growing a way out of this. It means a lot more inflation
coming on top of the prosperity as well.
And I want to go back to that video.
You talk about the Mara Lago Accord and how it's very similar
to the Plaza Accord. So how is the dollar being
deliberately weakened? So in the Mara Lago Accord, that
was in 1985 when I think it was the G7 got together and
basically agreed to repack back to the dollar and to allow the
dollar to devalue, to get weaker.
And so now there's these Mar a Lago Accords.
And it was Trump's economic advisor, Steve Moran, who
published a paper before Trump became president on exact.
And he's the one that came up with that term, The Mar a Lago
Accord. It's basically a play on the
Plaza Accord, which is allowing sort of the US trade to re
center around the US. That's part of what the tariffs
are about. So it's realigning global trade
around the US and then sort of re pegging back to the dollar.
So balancing trade, which would then allow the US to weaken the
dollar. And how do we do that
specifically? By printing lots and lots of it.
By increasing the debt. By increasing the money supply.
But my question is, we were talking about how the dollar is
already weakened, you know what I mean?
So how can they weaken it more if it's value has gone down
since 1971? That's a great, that's a great
question. So when we say weak, weak
compared to what? That's the key piece.
So when we say weak, so when as I said earlier, the dollar
measured against the Dixie, the dollar index.
So that's measured against other currencies.
So when you measure the dollar against the euro, which is the
main component of that basket or the yuan or the, you know,
whatever the peso, the Boulevard, whatever, when you
compare the dollar to other currencies, it's very strong.
When you compare the dollar to gold or to Bitcoin or to real
estate, it's very weak. So when you look at charts and
you see the dollar is devalued 90%, 90% compared to what?
Compared to hard assets like gold, But it's strong compared
to other currencies. And the reason why that matters
is because we're talking about resetting global trade.
And so when you're trading, when the US is trading with China, if
the dollar's too strong, it makes our exports too expensive.
So nobody wants to buy our exports.
If the dollar gets weaker, it's easier for us to trade, right?
And that's why we get these currency wars happening between
these nations because each nation is trying to make their
own trade bounds, their own goods more competitive on the
global stage. So yes, so they're trying to
make it weaker to other currencies.
And when I said it's already weaker, when you look at it
compared to other currencies, it's historically high right now
and they want to weaken it compared to other currencies,
which will also weaken it to gold and Bitcoin and houses,
etcetera. So does that mean that the US is
printing less money compared to the other currencies?
Oh, we have been, yes, but we have been right.
So the So the Fed has been in a tightening cycle since 2022.
I thought they were just like printing, like there's no
tomorrow. Well, we have fiscal policy and
we have monetary policy. So fiscal policy is how much the
government spends. Then we have monetary policy was
what the central bank sets as the money supply.
And so the Fed monetary policy has been tightening.
Quantitative easing is when they're easing the monetary
supply, they're increasing it and they've been in tightening.
So they've been letting the bonds expire and roll off of
their books, which has been shrinking the money supply.
At the meantime, what the Biden administration did with Janet
Yellen at the Treasury, they were trying to offset that.
And so the Treasury, the fiscal policy was spending like crazy.
So what Janet Yellen was doing was issuing a lot of Treasuries
on the short end, like less than six month term to raise that
money and they were spending that money into the economy.
So we sort of had competing odds here.
You had the government fiscal policy fighting against like the
Fed's monetary policy at the same time.
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habit. You've mapped out how Bitcoin
responds to dollar devaluation. If this reset plan plays out,
what's your price target for Bitcoin?
The price target for Bitcoin. So at Bitcoin MENA, we were both
there. I gave AI, gave the closing
keynote and I projected it would be 203020402050.
So you can go watch that whole video for the full math.
But basically if we look at as the world continues to increase
the money supply, that money goes somewhere.
We don't want money, we want the goods and services it buys us.
So as they increase the money, the basket of goods it
appreciates. So right now we look at store
value assets and they're about a quadrillion, 1000 trillion
dollars. So that's gold, art, real
estate, equities, bonds, cash, etcetera.
If we continue on the path of increasing the money supply that
we've been on at about 10% a year, so we go, OK, so the money
supply expands by about 10% a year.
That basket expands about 10% a year, but not each asset goes up
at the same rate. So Bitcoin is the most sensitive
to global liquidity. It's going up at about 8.9 times
sensitivity compared to gold about 1.4% times, something like
that. I project that Bitcoin will
continue to go up faster than fine art or collectibles or gold
or real estate. And so that basket by 20-30
should be about 1.3 quadrillion. By 2040 should be about 3.5
quadrillion. So the question then becomes
like a venture capital perspective, if that's the total
addressable market, what percentage could Bitcoin capture
of that market? So if Bitcoin can get 1.25% of
that basket, 1% by 20-30, that would put it on par with bold at
about $21 trillion or be $1 million per Bitcoin by 2040,
which is about 15 years from now.
If Bitcoin could get 8% of that basket, it would put it on pace
to be about $14 million per Bitcoin now.
Is 8% realistic or does that seem too big?
Well, if we look at it from that lens, we know that Uber and
Airbnb both captured 10% of their market in less than 10
years. So we're talking about Bitcoin
getting only 8% in decades. And so to me, it seems sort of
bearish, sort of conservative, but those would be some
projections that I'm looking at it.
Was like playing it on the safe side.
And you mentioned about gold and Bitcoin.
Do you think since the US dollar is going to weaken a lot, are we
ever going to be seeing Bitcoin being priced in?
I don't know, Gold I. Don't think we'll see Bitcoin
priced in gold. No, I do think that Bitcoin
eventually becomes the unit of account that we start to price
things in. I'm predicting that happens
somewhere around 2050, maybe a little bit past about 25 years
from now already. A lot of bitcoiners that we know
already priced things in sats already.
I was talking maybe a little spoiler, but I was talking with
Marty Bent earlier and he's working on a product that
everything that you look on the website instantly converts
dollars into sats. No.
So we can start to be seen it that way.
But I think that we'll eventually price everything in
SAT's and I think that's about 25 years, but but no reason to
price that in gold. What does your portfolio look
like right now? Can you give us a little like
inside? Yeah, we'll breakdown my total
portfolio and then we'll breakdown the Bitcoin side of
it. OK.
First thing I would say is that there's levels to this game.
So you see a lot of people on Twitter or X talking about, you
know, sell your chairs, go all in on Bitcoin and that's cool
when you got a couple 1000 bucks, right?
If you have a couple 100 million, obviously you own
different things. For me personally, it's my
businesses. So multiple businesses that I
have. That's one real estate is
another piece of it. And then the third is, is my
Bitcoin sort of tech plays the bitcoins that I'm sorry, the
business side is where we make the money.
That's where we create the wealth.
And then I buy real estate for tax efficiency.
So I buy I buy real estate so I don't have to pay tax on the
money that I make. And then the after tax dollars,
which are more money than those goes into some of these Bitcoin
tech plays. So on that side, it's
specifically Bitcoin, pretty much all Bitcoin.
And then I have a fund, so the Bitcoin opportunity Fund.
So we're investing into businesses that are building on
and around the Bitcoin ecosystem.
So the majority of that in Bitcoin, some of that in the
fund where we're investing into these businesses that are
building on and around Bitcoin. And then a smaller piece that's
in some of the more speculative plays, so a lot of these Bitcoin
treasury plays. So we're getting into all of
those both in the fund and personally, I'm investing into
these companies as well. There's some convergence of AI
and Bitcoin coming together where AI agents are working with
Bitcoin directly. So I'm investing into some of
that as well. And those are small percentage
of My Portfolio, but the majority of that would just be
Bitcoin. And what can we expect of AI and
Bitcoin working together? Can you tell us a little?
Bit yeah, so in again in that Bitcoin Mina talk I talked about
around 2030 is where I think this will really start to take
off. And so already we're seeing so
for example, a big area that we invest in is Bitcoin mining.
And in the Bitcoin mining space, we have data centers and a lot
of them are now bringing on AI data centers, high compute is
what we call it. So we're already starting to see
sort of these Bitcoin miners be Bitcoin and AI data centers, if
you will. So some current versions there,
but specifically what I'm thinking is that Bitcoin is
open, borderless, permission list, all of these things.
It's also person lists, so you don't have to be a person to
have a bank account. And so now we have the rise of
autonomous AI agents. So I can basically program an AI
agent to go hire other AI agents to go do tasks for me, research,
write, build websites, run marketing campaigns, things like
that. And.
You would pay them in Bitcoin. Well, yes.
So I would give my agent the ability to go do all these
transactions on my behalf. And they can have a wallet and
it can have Bitcoin and it can go do these things and it can
spend the Bitcoin, It can hire other AI agents to go do these
things for me. And we've already started to see
this. So for example, one AI agent,
this has already been done. It can go do research and find
the best online business, then it can go write the business
plan, Then it can go find domain names to match.
And it went and it bought the domain name using Lightning to
do that. So we're already starting to see
this happen. Part of the reason why is it
can't use the Fiat system for this.
An AI agent can't have a bank account, but more specifically,
you can't do microtransactions at high frequency with the Fiat
system. And so in order for these AI
agents to do these high frequency transactions,
microtransactions, it's going to need something like Bitcoin to
do that. So I think that's going to be a
over the next probably 12 to 24 months is going to be an area
that's going to rapidly grow and.
Also, one of the things that you also talk about is how we're
experiencing one of the biggest wealth transfers in the last 50
years. What's the biggest mistake you
think that this generation or people are going to make?
What I'd say probably the biggest mistake that people are
making in this generation is most people have lost their
ability to think critically or with an open mind.
And I see this like crazy. I make videos and we get
thousands of comments and I read the comments on these videos and
I just think to myself that these people are just, they're
never going to make it. People bring these biases in and
these assumptions in and they can't even have an open enough
mind to even ask if it could be true, to even go do research to
even see if it could be true. They instantly believe it's not
part of that's the school system that we have, that we have this
industrial era school system that's trained people up with
these old tools for a world that we're no longer in.
But I'd say this is the number one thing though.
The world has changed just in the last 10 years.
Most people were taught for industrial system.
And so they're not able to see the new world that we're in.
They're not able to have an open enough mind to go explore it and
to even think that it's possible.
And that's what's going to hold people back because it's as
simple as just buying Bitcoin. I put AX post a few weeks ago
and it was like Larry Fink, the largest asset manager in the
world, buy Bitcoin. Ray Dalio, largest fund manager
in the world, buy Bitcoin. President Trump, president of
the United States, buy Bitcoin your cousin.
Oh, Bitcoin's a scam. It's so terrible.
And it's like, look, guys, like things change and like you need
to change your mind. Like Michael Saylor was against
Bitcoin in 2013, right? He changed his mind.
And, and so intelligence really is the signal of you being able
to change your mind and take action.
And so I think that's the single biggest thing that's gonna hold
people. Back People say the ones that
survive the longest are the ones that are willing to adapt, yeah.
Speaking of adaptability, what generation do you think
understands Bitcoin the most? Well, who understands?
It's the most, I would say, 30 to 50 year old range because
they're old enough to have seen the damage done by the great
financial crash, understand the dangers of the Fiat system, but
still young enough to grasp technology and how it's
reshaping things. And so there's sort of this
middle generation, they saw the world before the Internet and
they understand the dangers of Fiat.
They still understand gold a little bit, but then they
understand the tech. Obviously the younger
generation, the 16 year olds, they were just raised on it.
They don't know any different, but they don't know any
different. But doesn't mean they understand
it. They don't understand the need
for it, the mechanism of it. So I'd say probably the 30 to 50
year old generation, the straddle, the straddle.
Generation. Not even the baby boomers.
I think they're like the skip generation.
At the baby boomers are little on the other.
On the other side, they're a little too far.
My last question is what is your hottest Bitcoin take?
My hottest Bitcoin take is that Bitcoin is a cheat code.
All you have to do is buy one asset and you can outperform
everybody else. And for most people, you can buy
Bitcoin probably have tax free income for the rest of your life
within five years to retire off of.
But debt is your friend. Leverage is your friend, but you
have to grow up and mature to learn how to use it properly.
Awesome. Thank you so much, Mark.