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Get the status credit card. 11 00:00:39,500 --> 00:00:47,300 Go to status money.com for / car as the world moves increasingly 12 00:00:47,300 --> 00:00:50,200 towards the mainstream adoption of Bitcoin and other digital 13 00:00:50,200 --> 00:00:52,500 assets Moon. Mortgage will make it possible 14 00:00:52,500 --> 00:00:55,700 to materialize your assets in real estate, through the 15 00:00:55,700 --> 00:00:58,600 collateralization of mortgages with Bitcoin and other digital 16 00:00:58,600 --> 00:01:01,000 assets mood. We'll be launching Lending 17 00:01:01,000 --> 00:01:04,300 Solutions to allow investors to easily leverage, their assets to 18 00:01:04,300 --> 00:01:06,800 purchase investment. Owner-occupied properties. 19 00:01:08,200 --> 00:01:10,900 Moon mortgages, crypto mortgage will be launching soon for home 20 00:01:10,900 --> 00:01:14,300 buyers in Texas, Florida and Colorado, and will be open to 21 00:01:14,300 --> 00:01:17,000 investors in Most states across the u.s. for investment 22 00:01:17,000 --> 00:01:18,900 properties. Welcome to the future of 23 00:01:18,900 --> 00:01:21,400 mortgages. Visit mood mortgage dot IO 24 00:01:21,400 --> 00:01:23,600 today, to register your interest and learn more. 25 00:01:24,900 --> 00:01:27,900 Good mortgage residential is registered with the nmls under 26 00:01:27,900 --> 00:01:29,600 number two. Three five, three, three four. 27 00:01:40,400 --> 00:01:42,900 What is up everybody? Welcome back to another exciting 28 00:01:42,900 --> 00:01:45,200 episode of fed watch. My name is Ansel dinner. 29 00:01:45,500 --> 00:01:49,200 I am here with my co-host, CK. How are you doing, CK? 30 00:01:49,700 --> 00:01:52,200 Well, it is up Ansel. I'm doing great. 31 00:01:52,200 --> 00:01:54,500 My man. Doing great excited too. 32 00:01:54,600 --> 00:01:58,300 To chat macro once again and happy holidays. 33 00:01:58,300 --> 00:02:02,100 To everyone out there watching thanks for tuning into Bitcoin 34 00:02:02,100 --> 00:02:05,200 magazine live. Thanks to you for tuning in to 35 00:02:05,200 --> 00:02:10,300 Fed, watch on the show, we talk Bitcoin and macro and we think 36 00:02:10,300 --> 00:02:15,200 about how big when plays in as a bigger part of the macro 37 00:02:15,200 --> 00:02:17,800 ecosystem. So we are one of the only shows 38 00:02:18,000 --> 00:02:21,100 in the world that actually does. This answer, those incredible 39 00:02:21,100 --> 00:02:25,000 research and has been ahead of many elements of At the 40 00:02:25,000 --> 00:02:30,200 developing crisis in Fiat Legacy markets as well as Bitcoins 41 00:02:30,200 --> 00:02:33,300 development. So and so excited to be here 42 00:02:33,300 --> 00:02:37,900 once again with you to chat. Yeah, Merry Christmas to 43 00:02:37,908 --> 00:02:40,500 everybody out there. Thanks for joining us. 44 00:02:40,500 --> 00:02:44,000 The the macro psych news cycle has been a little bit slow over 45 00:02:44,000 --> 00:02:48,700 the last, I would say 48 hours but there was some big news this 46 00:02:48,700 --> 00:02:52,900 week and that was Japan with their relaxation of yield curve 47 00:02:52,900 --> 00:02:54,400 control. So we're going to cover that. 48 00:02:54,700 --> 00:02:57,300 Also this morning we had some revisions to the u.s. 49 00:02:57,300 --> 00:03:02,700 GDP from Q3, so we'll cover that and yeah just rap about some 50 00:03:02,700 --> 00:03:07,600 macro what's going on and you know, sign off for the Christmas 51 00:03:07,600 --> 00:03:09,800 break after that. Yeah, no. 52 00:03:09,800 --> 00:03:11,500 Absolutely. And we got to talk bitcoin 53 00:03:11,500 --> 00:03:14,100 price. It's a it's been scary looking 54 00:03:14,100 --> 00:03:17,300 at that chart, honestly. Ansel, I don't know what you 55 00:03:17,300 --> 00:03:20,300 make of it. You're generally a, you know, 56 00:03:20,300 --> 00:03:22,700 say more bullish in the medium term. 57 00:03:23,500 --> 00:03:25,600 Then many but scary looking chart. 58 00:03:25,600 --> 00:03:28,400 So I'm excited to get your opinion on that as well. 59 00:03:29,900 --> 00:03:31,600 Oh yeah. Well let's shoot me jump right 60 00:03:31,600 --> 00:03:35,400 into the charts. Know before we do that we got to 61 00:03:35,600 --> 00:03:37,900 be remiss. If I don't she'll the Bitcoin 62 00:03:37,900 --> 00:03:43,400 conference Bitcoin, 22, 23 May 18th through the 20th in Miami 63 00:03:43,400 --> 00:03:45,700 Beach, Florida and so is going to be there. 64 00:03:45,700 --> 00:03:48,200 I'm going to be there. I'm excited to get him on the 65 00:03:48,200 --> 00:03:49,500 desk. It's honest. 66 00:03:49,700 --> 00:03:52,100 It's also a long time coming for you to be a part of the 67 00:03:52,100 --> 00:03:56,600 conference content so hopefully we can make that happen but you 68 00:03:56,600 --> 00:04:00,000 know me bitcoiners Bitcoin. Later in life. 69 00:04:00,200 --> 00:04:02,600 Nasser in real life. Like come on. 70 00:04:02,800 --> 00:04:06,700 You cannot beat the Bitcoin conference is the first time I 71 00:04:06,700 --> 00:04:11,400 met Ansel even after interacting with him for years online, that 72 00:04:11,400 --> 00:04:16,000 was in 2021 and you know, it's really an incredible experience. 73 00:04:16,000 --> 00:04:19,200 Bitcoiners our best in person and the Bitcoin conference is 74 00:04:19,200 --> 00:04:25,100 where Bitcoin history is made code BM, live. 75 00:04:25,200 --> 00:04:27,800 That gets you 10% off. Your tickets ticket, prices are 76 00:04:27,800 --> 00:04:31,000 always going up. We also have a lot of awesome 77 00:04:31,000 --> 00:04:34,400 platforms and projects out there for people to take advantage and 78 00:04:34,400 --> 00:04:37,600 get a free ticket. We have an open source program. 79 00:04:37,600 --> 00:04:42,600 Where if you have committed code to one of many open source 80 00:04:42,600 --> 00:04:45,700 programs or software's in the Bitcoin world that includes 81 00:04:45,700 --> 00:04:52,500 Bitcoin core Spectre many, many others out there, seed signers 82 00:04:52,500 --> 00:04:55,000 and other one. If you have contributed code you 83 00:04:55,000 --> 00:04:58,600 can get a free for day ticket to the Big Ten Conference. 84 00:04:58,700 --> 00:05:02,900 It's so apply to that to all the contributors out there. 85 00:05:03,300 --> 00:05:06,300 And again all the bitcoiners out there, be a part of History. 86 00:05:06,300 --> 00:05:10,400 Come to the Bitcoin conference and don't wait because ticket 87 00:05:10,400 --> 00:05:12,500 prices travel costs. All that is going up and that 88 00:05:12,500 --> 00:05:16,400 you can't miss it. That is pretty huge Bitcoin 89 00:05:16,400 --> 00:05:19,800 magazine always taking care of the community, putting a 90 00:05:19,800 --> 00:05:21,700 Community First put in Bitcoin first. 91 00:05:21,700 --> 00:05:23,800 Gotta love that. Yeah, I'm excited. 92 00:05:23,800 --> 00:05:25,800 Man. Every year I've gone now, two 93 00:05:25,800 --> 00:05:29,800 years in a row and it seems like I I have to go back because I 94 00:05:29,808 --> 00:05:32,600 didn't do half the stuff I wanted to do. 95 00:05:32,600 --> 00:05:36,300 There's so much going on. I was talking to the producer 96 00:05:36,300 --> 00:05:41,000 Chris before beforehand and I think this year, I want to spend 97 00:05:41,000 --> 00:05:46,300 more time with bitcoiners so you know maybe not go to as many 98 00:05:46,300 --> 00:05:49,100 talks and spend more time in the social aspect of it. 99 00:05:49,100 --> 00:05:54,100 So yeah it's I can't wait can't wait for Bitcoin 2023. 100 00:05:54,900 --> 00:05:58,500 All right my admin notes are hey join the telegram TDOT. 101 00:05:58,700 --> 00:06:02,300 Amy for such Bitcoin in markets. That is the place where I drop, 102 00:06:02,500 --> 00:06:05,000 you know, multiple pieces of content every day. 103 00:06:05,300 --> 00:06:10,300 I also do a live stream there every single day, so and I'm 104 00:06:10,300 --> 00:06:11,700 putting those out on my podcast app. 105 00:06:11,700 --> 00:06:15,800 So subscribe to bitcoin and markets on your podcast app to 106 00:06:16,500 --> 00:06:20,200 not miss an episode of that. All right, well hey, no I'm 107 00:06:20,200 --> 00:06:24,100 sorry, I got I got a double click on that show and just say 108 00:06:24,300 --> 00:06:27,500 Ansel in my opinion one of the highest signal, individuals out 109 00:06:27,500 --> 00:06:31,600 there and he is putting Out content every single day and 110 00:06:31,600 --> 00:06:35,300 sometimes twice a day. So subscribe to this telegram. 111 00:06:35,300 --> 00:06:38,500 Subscribe to Bitcoin markets. I am an avid listener for a long 112 00:06:38,500 --> 00:06:42,900 time and obviously subscribe to Fed watch or we break down 113 00:06:42,900 --> 00:06:45,600 macaron Bitcoin. Alright Ansel, let's get into 114 00:06:45,600 --> 00:06:47,600 the charts. Like, subscribe this stream 115 00:06:47,600 --> 00:06:48,900 right here. All right. 116 00:06:49,500 --> 00:06:52,700 Yeah, let's go into the charts. The first, the first slide up 117 00:06:52,800 --> 00:06:54,800 CK. Did you see this one? 118 00:06:55,200 --> 00:06:59,000 We're bringing some soccer into here so that I can Charge. 119 00:06:59,000 --> 00:07:02,900 But yeah, the Argentine team is carnivore, man. 120 00:07:03,000 --> 00:07:07,400 So did you see this? No, I mean I don't know how 121 00:07:07,400 --> 00:07:13,000 carnivore but Argentina is All About Meat and when it comes to 122 00:07:13,700 --> 00:07:17,600 when it comes to beef, Argentina is one of the the most famous 123 00:07:17,600 --> 00:07:19,900 places in the world. I'm actually going to be going 124 00:07:19,900 --> 00:07:24,800 to Argentina very soon and I'm excited to indulge in the South 125 00:07:24,800 --> 00:07:28,400 American and Argentinian beef. Oh that's awesome. 126 00:07:28,600 --> 00:07:34,100 Yeah I always see your posting pictures of your awesome meals. 127 00:07:34,100 --> 00:07:37,300 So I thought you would appreciate This this first 128 00:07:37,300 --> 00:07:40,000 little clip here or this first step now, 100% and 129 00:07:40,000 --> 00:07:43,600 congratulations to Argentina, and messy and particular, who 130 00:07:43,600 --> 00:07:46,500 is, you know, if he wasn't already the greatest of all 131 00:07:46,500 --> 00:07:49,900 time, you know, I think he's, he's completed that, and that 132 00:07:49,900 --> 00:07:54,600 was an epic soccer game. So, you know, football game to 133 00:07:54,600 --> 00:07:57,200 all those. Yeah, absolutely. 134 00:07:57,200 --> 00:07:59,800 Cementing his legacy. That's what Chris said in the, 135 00:07:59,800 --> 00:08:02,400 in the chat down here. Absolutely. 136 00:08:02,400 --> 00:08:06,300 And it was, it was just so much fun to watch, so, Here's to them 137 00:08:06,300 --> 00:08:10,400 and, you know, obviously you know that's a cool picture. 138 00:08:11,100 --> 00:08:12,300 I'm glad they're having a good time. 139 00:08:13,600 --> 00:08:15,600 All right. Let's jump into the first chart 140 00:08:15,600 --> 00:08:18,700 in that is the Bitcoin chart. This one, I kind of showed last 141 00:08:18,700 --> 00:08:22,800 week and you can see I put on here all of the major events of 142 00:08:22,800 --> 00:08:25,700 these charts that have happened over the last six months. 143 00:08:25,700 --> 00:08:29,800 So Tara, Luna Celsius FTX of course, we had some other little 144 00:08:29,800 --> 00:08:31,900 ones in there or some other ones in there. 145 00:08:31,900 --> 00:08:37,799 But these are the big major ones and I maintain that if you take 146 00:08:37,900 --> 00:08:43,200 out these big incidents, you know, where the price sold off. 147 00:08:43,700 --> 00:08:47,700 Dramatically because of the fear and uncertainty and doubt in the 148 00:08:47,708 --> 00:08:51,100 market, then Bitcoin would be sideways right? 149 00:08:51,100 --> 00:08:55,800 Then take out these big days down days and Bitcoin has been 150 00:08:55,800 --> 00:08:58,300 very, very strong for most of the year. 151 00:08:58,300 --> 00:09:02,100 I think people need to like at least I think people get too 152 00:09:02,100 --> 00:09:05,600 worried about you know there's going to be some catastrophic 153 00:09:05,600 --> 00:09:07,700 collapse in the price or whatever and like you were 154 00:09:07,700 --> 00:09:11,400 saying there before that it doesn't look good but if you 155 00:09:11,400 --> 00:09:14,900 look at this in the whole year, the only time Bitcoin is really 156 00:09:14,900 --> 00:09:17,500 collapsed has been during these major events. 157 00:09:17,500 --> 00:09:20,300 So there there has to be some other major event. 158 00:09:20,300 --> 00:09:24,000 I think to push the price down lower any comments on this 159 00:09:24,000 --> 00:09:28,500 chart, CK, unfortunately, I feel like there's more major events 160 00:09:28,500 --> 00:09:31,300 come in, but a lot of people have been saying the 161 00:09:31,300 --> 00:09:35,000 catastrophic, bad news is already priced in and maybe that 162 00:09:35,000 --> 00:09:39,000 is the case. But I I don't quite think that 163 00:09:39,000 --> 00:09:45,600 we're out of the woods yet in terms of in terms of The big 164 00:09:45,600 --> 00:09:48,400 over-leveraged ecosystem players at Chris. 165 00:09:48,400 --> 00:09:50,700 We can see your slack on the screen by the way. 166 00:09:52,100 --> 00:09:53,100 Thank you. Yep. 167 00:09:53,400 --> 00:09:57,300 So yeah, I mean, in terms of these big ecosystem players, 168 00:09:57,900 --> 00:10:00,000 it's I don't think we're out of the woods. 169 00:10:00,000 --> 00:10:04,800 I think the the over leveraging is still there and there's 170 00:10:04,800 --> 00:10:09,600 definitely you know a few already that are dead and you 171 00:10:09,608 --> 00:10:13,200 know it's just hasn't you know, come too. 172 00:10:13,400 --> 00:10:16,300 To the a bankruptcy. Yeah, yeah. 173 00:10:16,300 --> 00:10:18,800 I mean like, or scientific that they had this announcement that 174 00:10:18,800 --> 00:10:23,000 they're getting this massive, 70 million dollar, bailout loan, 175 00:10:23,000 --> 00:10:26,000 and then a few days later they filed for bankruptcy. 176 00:10:26,300 --> 00:10:30,100 So yeah. Even even the most optimistic 177 00:10:30,100 --> 00:10:33,600 cases, I think some of these deals are not gonna be able to 178 00:10:33,600 --> 00:10:36,900 go through and and there's going to be more, there's going to be 179 00:10:36,900 --> 00:10:41,800 more dead bodies. Well, looking at this chart to 180 00:10:41,800 --> 00:10:44,700 me, I don't see much Else in this chart. 181 00:10:44,700 --> 00:10:48,100 So when people say you know, Bitcoin is correlated to stocks 182 00:10:48,100 --> 00:10:52,100 or whatever, there's not much else that these those three big 183 00:10:52,100 --> 00:10:55,500 events that I pointed out are really The Story of the Year for 184 00:10:55,500 --> 00:10:59,300 Bitcoin and it's not super correlated with other things 185 00:10:59,300 --> 00:11:03,100 than just I guess the overall climate the overall 186 00:11:03,100 --> 00:11:07,600 macroeconomic climate is such that yeah there's correlation 187 00:11:07,600 --> 00:11:12,900 but really there's no like direct influence between say 188 00:11:13,000 --> 00:11:17,400 that's Np-500 and Bitcoin. Let's go into the way before. 189 00:11:17,400 --> 00:11:20,200 Did you see some of the comments that Chris put up on the screen 190 00:11:20,700 --> 00:11:24,600 from the chat gbtc? People calling that out people 191 00:11:24,600 --> 00:11:28,100 saying race or people saying that micro strategies using 192 00:11:28,100 --> 00:11:29,700 custodians. Yeah. 193 00:11:30,400 --> 00:11:32,900 Oh yeah. They're all getting flashed up 194 00:11:32,900 --> 00:11:35,500 again. Yeah, you know those are those 195 00:11:35,500 --> 00:11:39,400 are just some of the big names. Yeah. 196 00:11:40,100 --> 00:11:43,100 But they're also regulated names, right? 197 00:11:43,300 --> 00:11:46,300 So they have to allow Regulators don't work and then they say 198 00:11:46,300 --> 00:11:49,800 they need more regulation. It's a hilarious clown show. 199 00:11:50,600 --> 00:11:51,700 That's true. That's true. 200 00:11:51,800 --> 00:11:55,300 I mean that it has to stop with somebody, right? 201 00:11:55,300 --> 00:11:57,200 The somebody's got to be that dumped. 202 00:11:57,200 --> 00:12:00,800 The person that holds up that last Domino, and I think that 203 00:12:01,400 --> 00:12:04,700 the companies that are remaining Finance kind of worries me a 204 00:12:04,708 --> 00:12:08,800 little bit but gbtc really Bother me or doesn't worry me 205 00:12:08,800 --> 00:12:12,300 and neither does microstrategy. So I think people are just 206 00:12:12,600 --> 00:12:16,900 there, they have a little PTSD and they want to see the next 207 00:12:16,900 --> 00:12:21,000 thing collapse. So why doesn't gbtc where you, 208 00:12:22,600 --> 00:12:27,400 because they have the big one It's not like they have paper 209 00:12:27,400 --> 00:12:29,700 Bitcoin, on their balance sheet or anything they are not 210 00:12:29,700 --> 00:12:34,700 insolvent. So, They just have a bunch of 211 00:12:34,700 --> 00:12:40,500 angry creditors. We're not a angry stakeholders 212 00:12:40,500 --> 00:12:44,400 shareholders. Well dcg. 213 00:12:44,700 --> 00:12:48,700 Yeah, dcg isn't. It has issues with with Genesis, 214 00:12:49,100 --> 00:12:54,800 he had dcg is a different story but gbtc on its own is you know, 215 00:12:54,800 --> 00:12:57,300 it's a separate entity and it has the Bitcoin. 216 00:12:57,300 --> 00:13:01,600 And so there's it's not like dcg is going to steal from the 217 00:13:01,600 --> 00:13:06,700 Bitcoin out of gbtc to pay something. 218 00:13:06,700 --> 00:13:12,300 So there's no commingling there as as far as I can. 219 00:13:12,400 --> 00:13:19,100 Until so yeah, gbtc itself the trust itself is totally solvent. 220 00:13:19,100 --> 00:13:23,200 Totally fine, great microstrategy, totally solvent, 221 00:13:23,200 --> 00:13:24,700 totally fine. It wouldn't really matter if 222 00:13:24,700 --> 00:13:26,800 they weren't in that case because they just do it to 223 00:13:26,800 --> 00:13:29,400 themselves, I guess. Well, I mean, I guess, I guess 224 00:13:29,400 --> 00:13:34,000 the, the concern is that they're Bitcoin is held by custodian 225 00:13:34,000 --> 00:13:39,100 that might not have the Bitcoin. Well, he talked about that 226 00:13:39,100 --> 00:13:42,700 recently, right? He talked about that, he what 227 00:13:42,700 --> 00:13:44,300 they one of their custodians is coinbase. 228 00:13:44,300 --> 00:13:46,600 Coinbase has like 2 million Bitcoins. 229 00:13:46,600 --> 00:13:51,600 I think they're completely solvent and okay then there's he 230 00:13:51,600 --> 00:13:54,900 didn't disclose the other two but people kind of know what the 231 00:13:54,900 --> 00:13:59,100 other two are and those are companies that I don't think are 232 00:13:59,100 --> 00:14:02,400 having any issues either. So overall I think 233 00:14:02,400 --> 00:14:05,600 microstrategy's Bitcoin is secure and they probably have an 234 00:14:05,700 --> 00:14:08,100 In multisig. So a lot of these custodians 235 00:14:08,300 --> 00:14:10,000 that people are worried about as well. 236 00:14:11,100 --> 00:14:14,100 They are custodians with one key say, right? 237 00:14:14,100 --> 00:14:18,000 And so it's not necessarily that they could all have stolen the 238 00:14:18,000 --> 00:14:20,900 Bitcoins or anything. We don't know the specifics and 239 00:14:20,900 --> 00:14:25,000 people jump to conclusions because of the PTSD in my mind. 240 00:14:25,000 --> 00:14:30,000 Now, I'm not saying I'm 100% sure but I'm 90% sure that all 241 00:14:30,000 --> 00:14:32,600 of these players are fine at this point. 242 00:14:33,300 --> 00:14:38,100 So so you think sideways and up, unless there's another big 243 00:14:38,100 --> 00:14:41,600 moment and I think that there could be another big moment and 244 00:14:41,600 --> 00:14:44,100 we're unsure if it's been priced in or not. 245 00:14:45,500 --> 00:14:50,300 Yeah, yeah, love my little red rocket ship there is, is showing 246 00:14:50,300 --> 00:14:53,600 once we break that 19,000, I think it's clear sailing ahead. 247 00:14:53,600 --> 00:14:55,500 Let's go to the next chart because it's Zooms in a little 248 00:14:55,500 --> 00:15:00,600 bit and You can see that previous trend line, that was 249 00:15:00,600 --> 00:15:03,600 resistance for a long time, has now been support. 250 00:15:03,600 --> 00:15:06,900 And so, if we can hold on there and we can go sideways to 251 00:15:06,900 --> 00:15:13,300 higher, which is, I mean, 90% of the last six months has been 252 00:15:13,300 --> 00:15:16,700 sideways to hire. And if we can continue doing 253 00:15:16,700 --> 00:15:20,800 that, eventually will go into that resistance Zone again back 254 00:15:20,800 --> 00:15:24,800 above 19,000. And that's when I think a lot of 255 00:15:24,808 --> 00:15:28,400 people, the shorts, get squeezed and a lot of people start going 256 00:15:28,400 --> 00:15:32,100 long. Alright, we'll see what happens, 257 00:15:32,100 --> 00:15:33,300 man. We'll see what happens. 258 00:15:33,300 --> 00:15:35,200 But that's the beautiful thing about the show. 259 00:15:35,200 --> 00:15:39,600 We document it every single week and Ansel has been right more 260 00:15:39,600 --> 00:15:40,900 than he's been wrong. That's for sure. 261 00:15:42,100 --> 00:15:46,400 Well, I mean I did think we were we want to crash below 30 then 262 00:15:46,400 --> 00:15:48,300 we crashed below 30. Then I thought we were going to 263 00:15:48,308 --> 00:15:51,200 break out when we had this false breakout with it right before 264 00:15:51,200 --> 00:15:53,100 FTX. So I haven't been right all the 265 00:15:53,108 --> 00:15:55,500 time, but my sideways calls have been, right? 266 00:15:55,600 --> 00:15:59,000 Just not my brake controls. So okay, let's go ahead. 267 00:15:59,000 --> 00:16:02,400 Let's head right here. Let's go to the next next chart 268 00:16:02,400 --> 00:16:05,100 please. So this is the treasury yields 269 00:16:05,100 --> 00:16:06,900 US. Treasury yields, you like this 270 00:16:06,900 --> 00:16:10,900 charts? Okay, sure control. 271 00:16:11,500 --> 00:16:15,500 Yeah. Stair step is showing the upper 272 00:16:15,500 --> 00:16:19,000 and lower bound of the FED funds, target range. 273 00:16:19,900 --> 00:16:24,100 Then of course these are the other like I guess dated 274 00:16:24,100 --> 00:16:27,300 treasuries the two-year five-year 30 and 10, you can see 275 00:16:27,300 --> 00:16:30,600 they're all significant. Even the two-year is below. 276 00:16:30,800 --> 00:16:35,300 The current fed funds, target range, So are they in control 277 00:16:35,400 --> 00:16:37,400 CK? What are your thoughts on this 278 00:16:37,400 --> 00:16:43,700 updated chart here? I mean, I love it man. 279 00:16:43,700 --> 00:16:47,100 It's it's awesome to kind of just see this whole story 280 00:16:47,100 --> 00:16:50,700 falling apart. So I'm excited to see what the 281 00:16:50,700 --> 00:16:53,900 two-year does. And continue following what 282 00:16:53,900 --> 00:16:59,600 these longer-dated bonds are going to do but you know, the 283 00:16:59,600 --> 00:17:02,800 current plan, it seems as though the rate hiking, they're 284 00:17:02,800 --> 00:17:05,099 planning on tapering that and then holding it. 285 00:17:05,099 --> 00:17:09,800 So if that's the narrative and these bonds keep Doing the 286 00:17:09,800 --> 00:17:13,099 opposite. You know this is the big moment 287 00:17:13,099 --> 00:17:21,099 which is will the the the map, like the kind of the lure, the 288 00:17:21,800 --> 00:17:27,700 mystery of the fed, the be exposed and their ability to, 289 00:17:28,000 --> 00:17:31,800 you know, dictate yields and interest rates, you know, will 290 00:17:31,800 --> 00:17:34,000 that their inability of that to do that? 291 00:17:34,000 --> 00:17:37,400 Which is the thesis of the show? Will that become a parent? 292 00:17:37,700 --> 00:17:42,300 So, You know, this is kind of like the test of the thesis of 293 00:17:42,300 --> 00:17:43,700 the show. That's why I think it's such an 294 00:17:43,700 --> 00:17:46,500 important chart because it appears to be confirming it. 295 00:17:47,800 --> 00:17:50,600 Right? Yeah, and speaking of can 296 00:17:50,600 --> 00:17:55,600 Central bank's control. Let's go dive into the Japanese, 297 00:17:56,100 --> 00:17:58,600 yo, curve control. So this is a close up of what 298 00:17:58,600 --> 00:18:03,200 just happened. The horizontal line on the 299 00:18:03,200 --> 00:18:08,600 bottom, was the previous ceiling that was 0.25 percent. 300 00:18:08,700 --> 00:18:10,900 We talk about this back in June CK. 301 00:18:10,900 --> 00:18:15,100 If you remember, when it started to break out Above This yield 302 00:18:15,100 --> 00:18:20,500 curve control Zone and I said back then that you know they 303 00:18:20,500 --> 00:18:24,400 they can kind of control this but they can't they can't win. 304 00:18:24,400 --> 00:18:29,100 Eventually they will fail and we saw that happen just this week, 305 00:18:29,100 --> 00:18:31,800 they announced they're going to increase their ceiling from 306 00:18:31,800 --> 00:18:35,300 zero-point-two-five to zero-point-five and then you can 307 00:18:35,300 --> 00:18:36,500 see what happened on that very first. 308 00:18:36,500 --> 00:18:40,300 Next day, it just shot all the way up from 0.25. 309 00:18:40,300 --> 00:18:43,600 Touching the top of the new Range. 310 00:18:43,600 --> 00:18:47,200 If you go to the next slide, Chris, we see the longer. 311 00:18:48,700 --> 00:18:54,000 This is the chart I showed back in June and The Cone just 312 00:18:54,000 --> 00:18:58,300 continues to get bigger as they can't control it. 313 00:18:58,400 --> 00:19:02,000 That's my position here. And a lot of people are thinking 314 00:19:02,000 --> 00:19:07,000 that oh this the 10-year yield or these yields are going to 315 00:19:07,008 --> 00:19:10,500 blow out in Japan. But I highlighted this one's own 316 00:19:10,700 --> 00:19:19,400 back in 2018 when they increase the window from Or minus 0.1 to 317 00:19:19,400 --> 00:19:23,200 plus or minus 0.2 and you can see it initially. 318 00:19:23,300 --> 00:19:27,200 It did it did go up and test the top of that new range but then 319 00:19:27,200 --> 00:19:29,300 it fell all the way down to the bottom. 320 00:19:29,900 --> 00:19:32,400 So, are we going to see something similar to this? 321 00:19:32,400 --> 00:19:35,200 We also saw, if you look at the next time they increase so 322 00:19:35,200 --> 00:19:39,700 that's 20 21, it looked like it was testing the top of that 323 00:19:39,700 --> 00:19:43,800 range and then it petered out. So the way I kind of describe 324 00:19:43,800 --> 00:19:47,300 this as there is some pressure in the system for rates. 325 00:19:47,500 --> 00:19:51,300 To go higher and when they relax that pressure or when they 326 00:19:51,300 --> 00:19:54,600 relax, they're sealing, the pressure gets initially relieved 327 00:19:54,600 --> 00:19:58,300 and then you have a reverse movement. 328 00:19:58,300 --> 00:20:03,200 So CK, what do you think about these last two charts and about 329 00:20:03,200 --> 00:20:05,200 the Japanese yield curve control in general? 330 00:20:08,200 --> 00:20:11,400 It's honestly kind of fascinating looking what 331 00:20:11,400 --> 00:20:15,500 happened in 2021 where it's you know exactly how you described 332 00:20:15,500 --> 00:20:19,800 the increase. The the ceiling it test up drags 333 00:20:19,800 --> 00:20:24,400 down and then begin to building back up and it coils up and 334 00:20:24,400 --> 00:20:26,200 there's an enormous amount of pressure. 335 00:20:26,300 --> 00:20:29,100 They changed the increase it and it explodes back up. 336 00:20:29,300 --> 00:20:32,700 It's also fascinating seeing how much more violent this is? 337 00:20:32,900 --> 00:20:36,300 It's almost like it's in proportion with The the new 338 00:20:36,300 --> 00:20:40,900 Range being much bigger but you know that's just me visually 339 00:20:40,900 --> 00:20:43,800 looking at the chart. Yeah. 340 00:20:43,800 --> 00:20:47,700 And there's no other basis for kind of saying that I don't 341 00:20:47,700 --> 00:20:50,900 know. Like again for me as a Layman, 342 00:20:50,900 --> 00:20:54,800 I'm looking at this and saying like this is this is why all of 343 00:20:54,800 --> 00:20:58,700 this is wrecked and you know why we need to move to something 344 00:20:58,700 --> 00:21:03,400 much more simple. And that cat doesn't rely on all 345 00:21:03,400 --> 00:21:06,800 this kind of funny business. And that's Bitcoin mining. 346 00:21:06,900 --> 00:21:08,900 So and that's Bitcoins monetary Supply. 347 00:21:09,200 --> 00:21:13,700 So I'm excited, you know, to Usher that in and I'm excited 348 00:21:13,700 --> 00:21:17,400 for the future that that makes possible because all of this on 349 00:21:17,400 --> 00:21:21,300 paper right here, like this, this messes with the economy, 350 00:21:21,300 --> 00:21:23,600 the global economy's ability to do business. 351 00:21:23,900 --> 00:21:26,900 Ultimately, that's what it does. When this financialization, 352 00:21:27,100 --> 00:21:31,300 pretty much creates a distraction from, you know just 353 00:21:31,300 --> 00:21:37,100 the the meat of the what we're Trying to do here which is trade 354 00:21:37,100 --> 00:21:41,400 and become more efficient and and cooperate and build. 355 00:21:41,900 --> 00:21:43,900 So, all of this stuff, it's turning the tool. 356 00:21:43,900 --> 00:21:48,200 It's like, almost like misusing the tools, which is a monetary 357 00:21:48,200 --> 00:21:54,100 system to achieve all the other goals of, you know, the state as 358 00:21:54,100 --> 00:22:00,200 it is today. 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There's both a free and paid 385 00:23:19,900 --> 00:23:22,200 version of this daily newsletter, where our Market 386 00:23:22,200 --> 00:23:24,600 analysts break down, what's going on in the markets? 387 00:23:24,600 --> 00:23:28,100 So you don't have to subscribe today, a Bitcoin magazine Pro. 388 00:23:31,700 --> 00:23:33,700 Let's dive into what your cruise control is. 389 00:23:34,000 --> 00:23:38,000 And then what exactly happened, I think, how a good way to 390 00:23:38,000 --> 00:23:42,400 interpret what happened here. So, you'll curve control is when 391 00:23:43,500 --> 00:23:45,400 the I don't, I didn't put a chart in here. 392 00:23:45,400 --> 00:23:49,700 I should have had a chart for this, but when they the Central 393 00:23:49,700 --> 00:23:55,800 Bank picks, a certain tenor on the curve. 394 00:23:55,800 --> 00:23:57,500 So in this case, it's the 10 year. 395 00:23:58,400 --> 00:24:02,500 Japanese Government Bond and they pick a certain ceiling that 396 00:24:02,500 --> 00:24:05,500 they, they won't let the yield get above. 397 00:24:05,500 --> 00:24:08,200 And if there's Market pressure trying to push it above that 398 00:24:08,200 --> 00:24:13,300 yield, then they will come in and buy QE, they'll do QE2 push 399 00:24:13,300 --> 00:24:15,500 it back down on the reverse side. 400 00:24:15,500 --> 00:24:19,000 If there is, you know, because this is a window plus or minus 401 00:24:19,200 --> 00:24:24,100 the 0.25 from 0. So, if it goes below, zero point 402 00:24:24,100 --> 00:24:27,800 two five negative 0.25, then they will go in and do QT. 403 00:24:28,500 --> 00:24:34,300 To push the price or push the yield back higher, so they do it 404 00:24:34,300 --> 00:24:38,800 on both both ways, but this is just another form of QE. 405 00:24:40,100 --> 00:24:43,300 I want to make that. Clear, so we have QE Japan. 406 00:24:43,300 --> 00:24:47,700 Has QE. They also have qqe which stands 407 00:24:47,700 --> 00:24:51,100 for qualitative and quantitative easing. 408 00:24:51,300 --> 00:24:56,100 So in quantitative quantitative easing, they buy ASLA usually 409 00:24:56,100 --> 00:24:58,600 government securities or mortgage-backed Securities. 410 00:24:58,700 --> 00:25:01,200 Okay? So they buy treasuries or these 411 00:25:01,200 --> 00:25:07,500 mortgage-backed securities. But qqe, they buy everything 412 00:25:07,500 --> 00:25:10,100 they go out there, they buy ETFs the back stocks, they buy 413 00:25:10,400 --> 00:25:15,000 everything there is probably corporate bonds and all of that 414 00:25:15,000 --> 00:25:18,900 so that's quantitative and qualitative easing, then that 415 00:25:18,900 --> 00:25:21,000 didn't work either. So first QE didn't work for 416 00:25:21,000 --> 00:25:23,600 Japan. Then qqe didn't work for Japan 417 00:25:23,800 --> 00:25:27,500 for decades, right? Then they went to in 2016, we 418 00:25:27,500 --> 00:25:31,500 just saw the chart that they went to yield curve control 419 00:25:31,500 --> 00:25:36,900 which is kind of like QQQ e. It's just unlimited quantitative 420 00:25:36,900 --> 00:25:40,100 easing, and that hasn't worked either because they had to 421 00:25:40,100 --> 00:25:42,700 continually change the range that they're doing. 422 00:25:42,900 --> 00:25:47,600 So they're, they're doing one failed policy after the next. 423 00:25:47,700 --> 00:25:52,000 Now, a lot of people are saying that this was coordinated with 424 00:25:52,000 --> 00:25:55,700 the fed or whatever that they're either responding to the fed or 425 00:25:55,700 --> 00:25:57,200 they're being coordinated with the FED. 426 00:25:57,300 --> 00:26:01,800 But we saw there on the chart that this has been putting 427 00:26:01,800 --> 00:26:05,000 pressure on the top of this. Range and they just move the 428 00:26:05,000 --> 00:26:07,200 range. That's all we can say now, I 429 00:26:07,200 --> 00:26:12,300 think some people say that this could be a net negative on their 430 00:26:12,300 --> 00:26:16,200 economy because as you said it, distorts prices as distorts 431 00:26:16,200 --> 00:26:19,000 business. What happens when yields go up, 432 00:26:20,000 --> 00:26:26,000 that means prices of those bonds goes down, which if you are 433 00:26:26,000 --> 00:26:30,100 holding those Bonds on your balance sheet as an asset, if 434 00:26:30,100 --> 00:26:33,600 you're Japanese bank and or money market, Thunder, whatever, 435 00:26:33,600 --> 00:26:36,100 and you're holding these government, prices of older 436 00:26:36,100 --> 00:26:40,200 bonds, go down. The yeah, the price the existing 437 00:26:40,200 --> 00:26:45,200 bonds issued yet correct the price of the existing bonds goes 438 00:26:45,200 --> 00:26:46,400 down. So you're holding it on your 439 00:26:46,400 --> 00:26:50,300 balance sheet and, you know, you are doing your business based on 440 00:26:50,400 --> 00:26:53,600 0.25 percent as the ceiling. So you're going to make your 441 00:26:53,600 --> 00:26:58,800 plans on this 0.25%, then they do a unexpected surprise 442 00:26:59,300 --> 00:27:02,500 relaxation of that window up to 0.5. 443 00:27:02,500 --> 00:27:06,900 Well the the value of your Bonds on your balance sheet, have now 444 00:27:07,200 --> 00:27:11,200 gone down Down. So now you're insolvent that 445 00:27:11,200 --> 00:27:15,900 this has this triggered some emergency action by the boj. 446 00:27:16,100 --> 00:27:19,400 They came in and tried to save some Pension funds and save some 447 00:27:19,400 --> 00:27:24,400 of these money market funds and it had arrived a lot to what 448 00:27:24,400 --> 00:27:28,300 happened in the UK with the guilt Market that we saw earlier 449 00:27:28,300 --> 00:27:33,100 this year, but the Japanese seem to plan for it and be ready for 450 00:27:33,100 --> 00:27:35,900 that and they smooth out a lot of that volatility. 451 00:27:35,900 --> 00:27:40,100 So yeah, I just wanted To add this in there, on the oh, and 452 00:27:40,100 --> 00:27:43,500 one more thing. So, the way that this could be 453 00:27:43,500 --> 00:27:45,600 good for their economy, so that is the way. 454 00:27:45,600 --> 00:27:50,800 It could be bad, the way it could be good is if you relaxing 455 00:27:50,800 --> 00:27:54,600 the window, that means you're going to have to do less QE most 456 00:27:54,600 --> 00:27:58,800 likely, right? Because you do more QE to hold 457 00:27:58,800 --> 00:28:00,500 it down. Well if you're holding it here, 458 00:28:00,500 --> 00:28:01,800 you're probably going to do less QE. 459 00:28:02,300 --> 00:28:06,000 So that means there's going to be more government bonds out in 460 00:28:06,000 --> 00:28:09,600 the economy, right? Because Cuba Is really, it's 461 00:28:09,600 --> 00:28:12,600 taking sucking up the collateral, it's sucking up the 462 00:28:12,608 --> 00:28:14,700 valuable collateral out of the system. 463 00:28:14,900 --> 00:28:19,000 Well, when you raise the window here, raise the ceiling, you're 464 00:28:19,000 --> 00:28:21,000 going to suck less collateral out of the system. 465 00:28:21,400 --> 00:28:24,600 And so, that could be actually stimulatory to their economy, 466 00:28:24,600 --> 00:28:26,800 which is kind of crazy if you think about it. 467 00:28:26,800 --> 00:28:29,700 So, there's competing forces here, we can't tell. 468 00:28:29,700 --> 00:28:32,200 If this is going to be good or bad, I tend to come down on the 469 00:28:32,200 --> 00:28:35,100 side that this actually going to help Japan a little bit. 470 00:28:35,100 --> 00:28:36,300 It's going to help their economy. 471 00:28:36,600 --> 00:28:39,400 So We'll see, we'll see how it goes. 472 00:28:39,400 --> 00:28:42,500 Any response to that CK. So you think that this is going 473 00:28:42,500 --> 00:28:45,200 to help because it's just more easing and that's, you know, 474 00:28:45,200 --> 00:28:47,500 that's falling in line with where the market is going. 475 00:28:47,500 --> 00:28:50,000 Anyways, it's less easy. Yeah. 476 00:28:50,000 --> 00:28:52,800 Okay because they're they're allowing for a bigger window 477 00:28:53,100 --> 00:28:56,500 where they don't actually have to be active. 478 00:28:57,100 --> 00:28:58,400 Right. Yeah. 479 00:28:58,400 --> 00:29:01,500 And one of the problems Japan has had like I said they failed 480 00:29:01,500 --> 00:29:05,800 over and over with qeq E and yield curve control because 481 00:29:05,800 --> 00:29:09,200 they're just taking this much. Needed collateral out of the 482 00:29:09,208 --> 00:29:12,900 system. So they're perpetuating this 483 00:29:13,600 --> 00:29:16,100 deflationary environment. Yeah. 484 00:29:16,100 --> 00:29:19,300 If they mean it and if you think of like the collateral in the 485 00:29:19,308 --> 00:29:24,400 system, like that's how a debt based system works, is you need 486 00:29:24,400 --> 00:29:26,600 that collateral that's how a modern Financial system. 487 00:29:26,600 --> 00:29:28,700 Has been working his you need that collateral. 488 00:29:28,900 --> 00:29:32,800 So if like the economy is like a body and the collateral is like 489 00:29:32,800 --> 00:29:37,800 the blood of the body and QE where they're buying the 490 00:29:38,000 --> 00:29:41,400 Collateral, they're buying up the blood and taking it out of 491 00:29:41,400 --> 00:29:43,400 the system because they're putting it on their balance 492 00:29:43,400 --> 00:29:46,000 sheets. Rather than allowing it to be 493 00:29:46,000 --> 00:29:50,900 priced and smel, liquid part of the market that it's almost like 494 00:29:50,900 --> 00:29:53,400 sucking the blood out of the body out of the economy. 495 00:29:53,800 --> 00:29:56,400 And I mean, well, I guess what are your thoughts on that kind 496 00:29:56,400 --> 00:29:59,100 of analogy? Yeah, that's perfect man. 497 00:29:59,100 --> 00:30:02,800 I wrote a yield curve control piece back in is like May of 498 00:30:02,800 --> 00:30:06,100 2021 and I was saying like why it wasn't going to work in all 499 00:30:06,100 --> 00:30:10,500 this and I said, Said that yield curve control is economic 500 00:30:10,500 --> 00:30:12,600 bloodletting. That's exactly what it is. 501 00:30:12,700 --> 00:30:14,300 So it's maybe I got that from you. 502 00:30:14,500 --> 00:30:16,000 Maybe. Yeah, maybe you came up with the 503 00:30:16,008 --> 00:30:19,400 same one as me but exactly man, it is. 504 00:30:19,700 --> 00:30:25,200 They are You in a credit-based system, you need a both ways in 505 00:30:25,200 --> 00:30:27,000 the plumbing needs to work in both ways. 506 00:30:27,000 --> 00:30:31,100 Just like a circulatory system and if you if you have a like, 507 00:30:31,200 --> 00:30:36,200 you know, just think if you don't let the blood come back to 508 00:30:36,200 --> 00:30:40,700 the lungs to get real oxygenated or whatever, then you end up 509 00:30:40,700 --> 00:30:43,100 dying, right? So, yeah, it's bloodletting is 510 00:30:43,100 --> 00:30:45,500 what they're doing to the economy right now, through QE. 511 00:30:45,500 --> 00:30:48,200 Now if they're raising that ceiling and they're doing less 512 00:30:48,200 --> 00:30:52,800 QE, that could be good for the The economy, maybe it will cause 513 00:30:52,800 --> 00:30:58,700 some short-term Havoc, but it will end up benefiting their 514 00:30:58,700 --> 00:31:00,700 economy. Also, Japan has not followed the 515 00:31:00,708 --> 00:31:03,900 same Playbook as a lot of the other central banks, like the 516 00:31:03,900 --> 00:31:08,300 FED being Uber hawkish, and the ECB be an Uber hawkish here. 517 00:31:08,500 --> 00:31:11,700 Japan is said, oh no, we're just going to still do our same. 518 00:31:12,000 --> 00:31:15,700 You have curve control and are saying qqe process that we've 519 00:31:15,700 --> 00:31:19,200 always been doing. So they are kind of on the 520 00:31:19,200 --> 00:31:22,400 opposite end of the experiment. I meant as the FED, which is 521 00:31:22,400 --> 00:31:25,500 kind of interesting. So we'll see how that works out. 522 00:31:26,900 --> 00:31:28,600 Bless you. Thank you. 523 00:31:28,600 --> 00:31:32,200 No, it's fascinating. Kind of seeing. 524 00:31:32,200 --> 00:31:36,900 And yeah, absolutely. Japan is has kind of been the 525 00:31:36,900 --> 00:31:42,200 only Central Bank that has a bent to to the FED at least in 526 00:31:42,200 --> 00:31:45,500 Europe pivot with, you know following what the Fed was 527 00:31:45,500 --> 00:31:48,800 doing. You know, we've seen what's 528 00:31:48,800 --> 00:31:52,600 happened and coming out of China, I mean to some degree, 529 00:31:53,300 --> 00:31:57,000 you know, we've seen you know, other Central Banks, the Central 530 00:31:57,000 --> 00:32:00,500 Bank of South Korea, you know saying like hey you know, y'all 531 00:32:00,500 --> 00:32:04,300 are affecting us but here's Japan, you know, kind of just 532 00:32:04,300 --> 00:32:09,500 doing their thing and just going back to that chart, you know, 533 00:32:09,600 --> 00:32:13,200 they've been on this trend which you're saying you know, actually 534 00:32:13,200 --> 00:32:20,000 lessens the need for QE since 2017 2016 where they're kind of 535 00:32:21,000 --> 00:32:24,600 increasing the range of 30 of their yield control. 536 00:32:25,000 --> 00:32:28,900 Can you kind of talk? It's like, you know, I guess 537 00:32:28,900 --> 00:32:33,300 since they've been kind of on this trend since that long, what 538 00:32:33,300 --> 00:32:35,800 was the environment there before they were doing yield curve 539 00:32:35,800 --> 00:32:38,300 control? I guess they just weren't 540 00:32:38,300 --> 00:32:40,800 messing with that at all. I guess. 541 00:32:41,700 --> 00:32:45,700 Well, they were doing. They were doing QE & Qs. 542 00:32:45,700 --> 00:32:48,400 I'm gonna make you eat and they yield curve control was kind of 543 00:32:48,400 --> 00:32:52,900 the next tool and then that that really came into play, you know, 544 00:32:52,900 --> 00:32:57,100 in 2016, right? They were okay. 545 00:32:57,100 --> 00:33:03,500 So the idea behind yield curve control is they want The fed or 546 00:33:03,500 --> 00:33:09,000 Central bank's they want to have a nice sloping yield curve 547 00:33:09,000 --> 00:33:15,400 because then P Banks can borrow short and long, right? 548 00:33:15,400 --> 00:33:19,600 You want to banks will borrow for a week or a month and 549 00:33:19,600 --> 00:33:22,000 they'll lend for 5, 10, 30 years. 550 00:33:22,600 --> 00:33:25,300 So they want to have it this differential and they want to be 551 00:33:25,308 --> 00:33:28,800 able to roll over their short-term loans constantly so 552 00:33:28,800 --> 00:33:32,500 that they can or their short-term sources of capital. 553 00:33:32,600 --> 00:33:37,000 And so that they can, you know, stay solvent basically. 554 00:33:37,200 --> 00:33:43,100 But when the we have a yield curve inversion Obviously the 555 00:33:43,100 --> 00:33:47,300 short and the long term rates are low are below a so you can't 556 00:33:47,500 --> 00:33:49,800 make a profit. That's really bad for banks, 557 00:33:49,800 --> 00:33:52,000 balance sheets, obviously, it makes it means that they're 558 00:33:52,000 --> 00:33:56,200 about to go out of business. And so then what you have 559 00:33:56,200 --> 00:33:59,000 control wants to do is it wants to Peg. 560 00:33:59,100 --> 00:34:01,900 Usually, it's a shorter term rate now, this is a little bit 561 00:34:01,900 --> 00:34:03,600 different with the 10-year, which I'll talk about here in a 562 00:34:03,608 --> 00:34:08,000 second, but the it's usually like say the two year, they'll 563 00:34:08,000 --> 00:34:10,500 want to Peg the shorter term rate. 564 00:34:11,300 --> 00:34:17,100 And what they think that will do is to pay, get, they use QE and 565 00:34:17,100 --> 00:34:19,800 they think okay, that's going to flood money out into the market. 566 00:34:19,800 --> 00:34:22,300 We're doing QE. So it's going to be stimulatory 567 00:34:22,300 --> 00:34:25,800 and inflationary. And what will happen is that 568 00:34:25,800 --> 00:34:31,500 will push up the long end so that then the banks can borrow 569 00:34:31,500 --> 00:34:36,500 short at this suppress rate and they can lend long at these 570 00:34:36,500 --> 00:34:38,900 inflated rates. So they think it's going to make 571 00:34:38,900 --> 00:34:42,600 the force the yield curve into to a nice upward sloping yield 572 00:34:42,600 --> 00:34:45,800 curve. Now, what Japan did was they 573 00:34:45,800 --> 00:34:49,400 pegged the ten year, which is pretty much right smack dab in 574 00:34:49,400 --> 00:34:52,800 the middle of the curve. Why would they do that? 575 00:34:53,000 --> 00:34:55,699 Because they wanted a flat curve. 576 00:34:56,199 --> 00:34:59,300 They have been trying to get inflation forever and they 577 00:34:59,300 --> 00:35:02,900 thought the best way to do it is less just flatten the whole damn 578 00:35:02,900 --> 00:35:06,200 thing. Let's just like they think we 579 00:35:06,200 --> 00:35:08,200 can get inflation by pegging the two-year. 580 00:35:08,900 --> 00:35:10,700 We're going to show them what real inflation is. 581 00:35:10,700 --> 00:35:13,900 We're going to pay The tenure and you know, that's going to be 582 00:35:13,900 --> 00:35:17,400 real inflation, never happened. Okay, never happened, didn't 583 00:35:17,400 --> 00:35:20,400 work, didn't work, initially they had to change the peg, they 584 00:35:20,400 --> 00:35:22,200 didn't work again, they changed it again. 585 00:35:22,600 --> 00:35:26,400 So this is really the third try of yield curve control, which 586 00:35:26,400 --> 00:35:31,400 itself is the third try of QE, and it's none of their plans 587 00:35:31,400 --> 00:35:36,200 ever work out. Yeah, and this is almost like 588 00:35:36,200 --> 00:35:40,500 them or treating back. Yeah, yeah, for sure. 589 00:35:42,000 --> 00:35:44,100 All right, thank you for breaking that down for us. 590 00:35:44,400 --> 00:35:46,500 These are some complex topics here guys. 591 00:35:46,900 --> 00:35:49,500 And and antle is the one who's done the most studying here. 592 00:35:50,200 --> 00:35:52,800 I'm just the guy asking the dumb questions. 593 00:35:53,400 --> 00:35:57,700 Well, for guys, listen on the podcast app you can in the show 594 00:35:57,700 --> 00:36:02,400 notes, I'll put a link to the article that I wrote 18 months 595 00:36:02,400 --> 00:36:05,800 ago about yield curve control and that, you know, it's a 596 00:36:05,800 --> 00:36:08,600 10-minute read but we'll get you up to speed pretty quick. 597 00:36:08,700 --> 00:36:12,800 Yeah. All right. 598 00:36:12,800 --> 00:36:16,100 Should we go into? I only have one more macro chart 599 00:36:16,600 --> 00:36:20,400 and that's the dollar if we want to talk about that let's do it. 600 00:36:21,000 --> 00:36:22,900 Okay. Chris can we go to the next 601 00:36:22,900 --> 00:36:29,400 slide? Please. so, this is Just I mean 602 00:36:29,400 --> 00:36:32,800 the dollar has been kind of boring sitting at 104. 603 00:36:32,900 --> 00:36:37,500 It's been 10 6 to 10 for four months now since basically the 604 00:36:37,500 --> 00:36:44,800 end of October and I'm just reading this question here. 605 00:36:45,100 --> 00:36:49,900 Does Ansel believe the dollar has topped out long-term? 606 00:36:49,900 --> 00:36:54,100 No but for the medium-term. Yes I think the dollar will 607 00:36:54,100 --> 00:36:58,500 eventually enter a new Range just like it did in 2015 for 608 00:36:58,500 --> 00:37:01,500 several years and the way it did after the great financial crisis 609 00:37:01,800 --> 00:37:05,300 for several years, I think the dollar will enter a new Range 610 00:37:05,800 --> 00:37:12,200 around this area and then in the future, Maybe Five years down 611 00:37:12,200 --> 00:37:16,200 the road then it will break out hire again and this is the 612 00:37:16,200 --> 00:37:21,500 script that has been written by a deflationary outcome to this 613 00:37:21,500 --> 00:37:25,400 problem so the dollar will continue to strengthen and that 614 00:37:25,400 --> 00:37:28,100 kind of explains what I think is going on with this chart, we've 615 00:37:28,800 --> 00:37:30,800 kind of bottomed for the time being. 616 00:37:30,900 --> 00:37:34,800 We're trying to create a bottom to a new range that the dollar 617 00:37:34,800 --> 00:37:38,200 is going to sit in. And yeah, that's what I had to 618 00:37:38,200 --> 00:37:40,000 say about this chart. CK, what are your thoughts on 619 00:37:40,000 --> 00:37:43,400 the dollar? No. 620 00:37:43,400 --> 00:37:47,200 I mean I don't have a I don't have really strong thoughts 621 00:37:47,200 --> 00:37:49,400 here. I just, I kind of like seeing 622 00:37:49,400 --> 00:37:54,900 historically and trying to think through the rates and how, and 623 00:37:54,900 --> 00:37:58,200 how the last year of history of kind of played out in 624 00:37:58,200 --> 00:38:01,600 conjunction to this chart. I feel like this chart, like, I 625 00:38:01,600 --> 00:38:05,700 feel like they're there are actual events that are happening 626 00:38:05,700 --> 00:38:08,900 in the world as this chart is making new highs and then 627 00:38:09,400 --> 00:38:12,200 something back. So you know that my mind was 628 00:38:12,200 --> 00:38:13,900 just kind of going. I'm through that as you're 629 00:38:13,900 --> 00:38:17,700 talking through, you know how you think that, you know, we're 630 00:38:17,700 --> 00:38:22,100 creating a new new Range here for the dollar at higher levels. 631 00:38:22,100 --> 00:38:26,400 I mean, it does seem as though the dollar rip. 632 00:38:26,400 --> 00:38:29,600 Sup everyone scrambles to make a lot of different changes to 633 00:38:29,600 --> 00:38:32,300 adjust for it? You know, obviously that has a 634 00:38:32,300 --> 00:38:36,100 little bit of a dampening effect and now we're in a new normal so 635 00:38:36,100 --> 00:38:39,200 that it feels like it fits with the narrative. 636 00:38:39,200 --> 00:38:43,600 But, you know, that's I guess that's all I Have to add. 637 00:38:45,700 --> 00:38:48,600 Yeah. And one of the things that one 638 00:38:48,600 --> 00:38:53,600 of the, there's some forces out here that kind of create this 639 00:38:53,700 --> 00:38:56,400 back and forth with the dollar and why I think that it's just 640 00:38:56,400 --> 00:38:58,000 going to enter a new higher range. 641 00:38:58,100 --> 00:39:01,100 I didn't include it this week, but people that listen on a 642 00:39:01,107 --> 00:39:04,300 regular basis, know the Hong Kong dollar chart that I like to 643 00:39:04,300 --> 00:39:12,400 show and the Hong Kong dollar, is a peg between 7.75 and 7.85. 644 00:39:12,400 --> 00:39:16,600 Hong Kong dollars per dollar and When it's at the top of that 645 00:39:16,600 --> 00:39:20,600 range that is very. That means there's a lot of 646 00:39:20,600 --> 00:39:23,200 dollar pressure in the world. That's a proxy. 647 00:39:23,200 --> 00:39:25,100 I that I use for dollar pressure. 648 00:39:25,800 --> 00:39:29,000 Well, when did that top out that topped out, right with as this 649 00:39:29,100 --> 00:39:31,100 chart, the dollar chart started falling. 650 00:39:31,500 --> 00:39:35,800 And so now we are towards the bottom half of that Hong Kong 651 00:39:35,800 --> 00:39:40,400 dollar Peg, and that means to me, that there is very little 652 00:39:40,400 --> 00:39:44,300 dollar pressure in the world and we'll go back and forth between 653 00:39:44,300 --> 00:39:47,000 those two. Two pegs because that's actual 654 00:39:47,000 --> 00:39:49,700 Market intervention, okay? The Hong Kong monetary 655 00:39:49,700 --> 00:39:53,900 Authority, they go out there and they will sell dollars from 656 00:39:53,900 --> 00:39:57,200 their reserves billions of dollars from their reserves and 657 00:39:57,200 --> 00:40:00,300 by Hong Kong dollars, right to strengthen the, the Hong Kong 658 00:40:00,300 --> 00:40:03,400 dollar and they'll do the reverse at the bottom. 659 00:40:03,900 --> 00:40:08,000 So that is actual monetary force in the world of billions of 660 00:40:08,000 --> 00:40:11,100 dollars. That is keeping this forcing, 661 00:40:11,100 --> 00:40:13,800 the dollar into a new Range. There's also a lot of things 662 00:40:13,800 --> 00:40:19,800 like At the top, when the dollar stress is very cute, the worst 663 00:40:19,800 --> 00:40:26,000 players go bankrupt, the worst players get liquidated and who's 664 00:40:26,000 --> 00:40:30,200 left, well, it's the going to be the people that can know the 665 00:40:30,200 --> 00:40:33,500 people that are in less trouble. So, yeah, there is still a 666 00:40:33,508 --> 00:40:37,900 strong dollar Force, but it's not as acute because all of the 667 00:40:37,900 --> 00:40:40,400 worst players have been liquidated out of the system. 668 00:40:40,400 --> 00:40:45,200 So there's and then at, as the dollar drops, new players come 669 00:40:45,200 --> 00:40:48,200 in, they get more profligate. They get a little bit more risky 670 00:40:48,200 --> 00:40:51,400 with their dollar loans and the dollar strengthens against. 671 00:40:51,400 --> 00:40:54,800 So there's all sorts of ebb and flows here. 672 00:40:54,800 --> 00:40:58,300 Why the dollar should enter a new higher range? 673 00:40:58,300 --> 00:41:01,700 Now, the only argument against that in my opinion is when 674 00:41:01,700 --> 00:41:04,700 people say oh isn't the end of the dollar inflationary? 675 00:41:05,800 --> 00:41:09,300 You know, isn't why doesn't the government just print more 676 00:41:09,300 --> 00:41:13,600 dollars and I got into this on telegram this morning with one 677 00:41:13,600 --> 00:41:16,400 of the guys there. He was asking pretty much that 678 00:41:16,400 --> 00:41:20,800 question and I was like, well, printing money today is not like 679 00:41:20,800 --> 00:41:23,400 printing money in 1975 or whatever. 680 00:41:23,400 --> 00:41:27,400 Because back then there was a lot more productivity per new 681 00:41:27,400 --> 00:41:32,100 dollar today, pretty much every new dollar is printed just to 682 00:41:32,100 --> 00:41:37,000 service the death and so you can print a toll bunch of money but 683 00:41:37,000 --> 00:41:41,300 it's no, it's not a net printing of dollars and that's where 684 00:41:41,300 --> 00:41:44,200 we're kind of at in the world and why the dollar will continue 685 00:41:44,200 --> 00:41:46,300 to strengthen. Nathan and not weakened. 686 00:41:46,900 --> 00:41:54,800 What do you think of that c.k.? yeah, and I mean, it just seemed 687 00:41:54,800 --> 00:42:00,700 like there's a The economic reality around the world is very 688 00:42:00,700 --> 00:42:05,900 different and I think the, the digital nature of a lot of this 689 00:42:05,900 --> 00:42:11,800 technology also is really kind of interesting in terms of a, 690 00:42:11,800 --> 00:42:17,800 like inflationary perspective, it's maybe the mechanism to 691 00:42:17,800 --> 00:42:21,700 distribute funds technologically exist, but seems like there's an 692 00:42:21,700 --> 00:42:25,300 issue Distributing funds right now and distributing currency. 693 00:42:27,100 --> 00:42:29,900 I Know if that if that's actually true from making that 694 00:42:29,900 --> 00:42:35,900 up, but it I feel like there's also kind of a distribution 695 00:42:35,900 --> 00:42:41,300 issue in terms of of inflation, but in terms of all the dollars 696 00:42:41,300 --> 00:42:43,900 are being created. In order to just service debt. 697 00:42:43,900 --> 00:42:49,300 And the fact that inflation today happens when debt is 698 00:42:49,300 --> 00:42:54,900 issued versus just, you know, printing out money from thin air 699 00:42:54,900 --> 00:42:57,800 and kind of giving it to your friends, which is Kind of like 700 00:42:57,800 --> 00:43:03,000 this meme that people Invasion as printing money, you know, I 701 00:43:03,000 --> 00:43:04,800 guess that that that makes sense. 702 00:43:04,900 --> 00:43:08,900 Unfortunately you know, as it's very clear here, I'm not an 703 00:43:08,900 --> 00:43:12,200 expert by any means. So you know, just kind of trying 704 00:43:12,200 --> 00:43:18,500 to make just trying to make Make ends of it, you know, try to 705 00:43:18,500 --> 00:43:21,200 just try to understand what's happening in this very complex 706 00:43:21,200 --> 00:43:25,300 system and to be much more simple. 707 00:43:25,400 --> 00:43:29,400 If we did not have debt based money because with sound money, 708 00:43:29,700 --> 00:43:32,300 you the you get money by earning it. 709 00:43:33,400 --> 00:43:36,600 You know, in a debt-based money especially at the end of a debt 710 00:43:36,600 --> 00:43:38,900 based money like you say printed, give it to your friends 711 00:43:38,900 --> 00:43:41,900 or whatever, there is a distribution problem, but that's 712 00:43:41,900 --> 00:43:45,500 because the most creditworthy people are going to get the 713 00:43:45,500 --> 00:43:47,500 loans and that's where money is printed. 714 00:43:48,500 --> 00:43:52,100 So there is a distribution problem and that is based on 715 00:43:52,100 --> 00:43:56,800 being a credit based system, but the end is not inflationary to 716 00:43:56,800 --> 00:43:59,300 end. Is that, you know, I just had a 717 00:43:59,308 --> 00:44:04,100 long rant on one of my live streams about the old geriatric 718 00:44:04,300 --> 00:44:08,500 and decrepid system, that is what we're going to in this 719 00:44:09,100 --> 00:44:14,900 quote unquote Fiat, system is a slow, grind, 20, economic growth 720 00:44:15,100 --> 00:44:21,300 to debt burden, Such a high debt burden that you can't move and 721 00:44:21,600 --> 00:44:23,800 only source of growth is going to be Bitcoin. 722 00:44:23,800 --> 00:44:28,200 So yeah, we're subscribe to Bitcoin markets. 723 00:44:28,200 --> 00:44:31,100 Go check out the telegram group with some to The Rance. 724 00:44:32,200 --> 00:44:35,200 Yeah, we could go back and forth on this for ages and ages. 725 00:44:35,200 --> 00:44:37,700 But should we go into the last one? 726 00:44:37,800 --> 00:44:39,300 No, just one last comment on that. 727 00:44:39,300 --> 00:44:45,700 And I fully buy into this idea of like I think people have this 728 00:44:46,200 --> 00:44:49,100 this they have different definitions for inflation, 729 00:44:49,100 --> 00:44:51,500 right? And and they both think that 730 00:44:51,500 --> 00:44:55,200 inflation is just like money Printing and the denomination's 731 00:44:55,200 --> 00:44:58,400 on bills going up. And they've seen like, what do 732 00:44:58,408 --> 00:45:01,200 you mean inflation can't happen. They've seen all these countries 733 00:45:01,300 --> 00:45:05,600 hyper-inflated and destroy their for their fiat currency, but 734 00:45:05,600 --> 00:45:09,700 there's this other kind of viewpoint of inflation. 735 00:45:09,700 --> 00:45:12,700 Where's the? You know, inflation is is is 736 00:45:12,900 --> 00:45:17,700 Life its motion. It's the it's the actual dollars 737 00:45:17,700 --> 00:45:22,600 going down in value against Real goods and those good and the 738 00:45:22,600 --> 00:45:27,700 economy growing and in that sense, I fully agree with, you 739 00:45:27,700 --> 00:45:31,900 know, picture that you are painting here, which is that the 740 00:45:31,900 --> 00:45:35,200 system is dying. And the, the issue with this 741 00:45:35,200 --> 00:45:40,500 system is that it is a poor operating system for an economy 742 00:45:40,500 --> 00:45:44,900 to leverage in order to a Allocate and manage resources. 743 00:45:44,900 --> 00:45:50,000 That's like the key here. So as it is now, confronted with 744 00:45:50,000 --> 00:45:52,400 Bitcoin, which is a better system for allocating resources, 745 00:45:52,400 --> 00:45:58,100 that that will become even more apparent and then the growth on 746 00:45:58,100 --> 00:46:03,700 the Bitcoin system compared to the stagflation and the 747 00:46:03,700 --> 00:46:09,100 crippling debt and and the, the inability to create growth. 748 00:46:09,100 --> 00:46:13,400 And to allocate resources, it's going to become very Stark when 749 00:46:13,400 --> 00:46:17,600 you start comparing these two systems in the wild, yeah, great 750 00:46:17,600 --> 00:46:22,600 points man. The way I think of it as There's 751 00:46:22,600 --> 00:46:26,800 been a debate very recently in Bitcoin about, is there going to 752 00:46:26,808 --> 00:46:31,000 be Credit in a Bitcoin standard? You know what form of credit is 753 00:46:31,000 --> 00:46:33,100 there going to be as it could be commodity, credit circulation, 754 00:46:33,100 --> 00:46:37,100 credit, you know, all these different things and people 755 00:46:37,100 --> 00:46:40,900 think that credit is bad in a way but it's not. 756 00:46:41,000 --> 00:46:45,200 I look at credit as that is actual Capital allocation 757 00:46:45,200 --> 00:46:48,000 happening. You know, it's some guy taking 758 00:46:48,000 --> 00:46:51,300 his money and giving it to another person. 759 00:46:51,500 --> 00:46:54,200 That is better. He's allocating the capital and 760 00:46:54,200 --> 00:46:56,500 that entrepreneur is doing the business, right? 761 00:46:56,500 --> 00:46:59,200 So that's capital, allocation. There has to be Credit in the 762 00:46:59,200 --> 00:47:05,200 system, but in a credit-based money, there is no savings. 763 00:47:05,500 --> 00:47:08,300 There is no savings because everything is Credit in the 764 00:47:08,308 --> 00:47:10,900 first place. So you're taking credit and 765 00:47:10,900 --> 00:47:14,600 you're either creating more credit or you are lending out 766 00:47:14,600 --> 00:47:16,700 credit. That's all there is to it. 767 00:47:16,700 --> 00:47:20,400 So that that's the problem and that's system works very well. 768 00:47:21,400 --> 00:47:25,200 When the world is relatively peaceful, there's no world wars 769 00:47:25,200 --> 00:47:27,600 going on. There's not a lot of trade Wars 770 00:47:27,600 --> 00:47:30,100 going on. There's, you know, a lot of 771 00:47:30,200 --> 00:47:32,200 expansion that could be had, right? 772 00:47:32,200 --> 00:47:36,400 A lot of enemies out there, not a lot of enemies low low hanging 773 00:47:36,400 --> 00:47:41,000 fruit in emerging markets and all that stuff, so that's when 774 00:47:41,000 --> 00:47:43,400 that system works really well. But once all of that those 775 00:47:43,400 --> 00:47:47,000 preconditions breakdown, then the the conditions for the 776 00:47:47,000 --> 00:47:49,000 credit-based money also break down. 777 00:47:49,000 --> 00:47:52,600 So that's why we're going. To eventually go back to sound 778 00:47:52,600 --> 00:47:55,500 money just because those preconditions no longer work 779 00:47:55,500 --> 00:48:00,500 anymore. So Man, this is and sound money 780 00:48:00,500 --> 00:48:04,400 will give a better platform for measuring and evaluating and 781 00:48:04,400 --> 00:48:06,800 extending proper credit into the future. 782 00:48:08,200 --> 00:48:09,800 Oh yeah. Definitely, definitely. 783 00:48:09,800 --> 00:48:13,000 Because then you're lending savings at least to a high 784 00:48:13,000 --> 00:48:17,100 degree or lending savings and not creating new money out of 785 00:48:17,100 --> 00:48:19,500 thin air. So so it's like credit with skin 786 00:48:19,500 --> 00:48:21,700 in the game. Exactly. 787 00:48:21,700 --> 00:48:24,000 Yeah. Interest rates will be higher. 788 00:48:24,200 --> 00:48:25,700 Interest rates will be higher for sure. 789 00:48:26,700 --> 00:48:29,400 Well, Again, the whole point here, is you want. 790 00:48:29,400 --> 00:48:32,600 You want your money to reflect reality, because that's the best 791 00:48:32,600 --> 00:48:38,300 way to allocate resources, is in order to either react to or 792 00:48:38,300 --> 00:48:43,400 anticipate reality, so you need the most accurate tool possible. 793 00:48:44,700 --> 00:48:46,900 Exactly. All right last story here we 794 00:48:46,900 --> 00:48:53,800 have is about GDP and Chris can we bring up slide number 8 GDP 795 00:48:53,800 --> 00:48:58,100 was revised upwards again so this is Q 3. 796 00:48:58,400 --> 00:49:01,700 They go through three revisions they have one or two revisions 797 00:49:01,700 --> 00:49:05,400 they have one release which you can see in this highlighted box. 798 00:49:05,700 --> 00:49:09,400 That's the first one then they revised it a little bit up in 799 00:49:09,400 --> 00:49:12,000 their first revision and now we have the second and final 800 00:49:12,000 --> 00:49:17,200 revision for Q3 GDP and it is a little bit higher. 801 00:49:17,300 --> 00:49:22,000 Still I want to read out a little bit from this story here. 802 00:49:24,700 --> 00:49:29,900 And let me just get the proper place here, the update from the 803 00:49:29,900 --> 00:49:34,300 second estimate reflected upward revisions to consumer spending 804 00:49:34,500 --> 00:49:39,600 which rose 2.3 percent in Q3 from 1.7 in the previous 805 00:49:39,600 --> 00:49:45,800 estimate and up from 2% in Q2 as well as upward revisions to 806 00:49:45,800 --> 00:49:49,800 business investment, and state and local government that were 807 00:49:49,800 --> 00:49:53,100 partly offset by downward revisions to inventory 808 00:49:53,100 --> 00:49:56,400 investment. It and exports looking at the 809 00:49:56,400 --> 00:50:00,200 bigger picture to the third quarter increase in Real GDP. 810 00:50:00,200 --> 00:50:04,600 Reflected increases in exports, consumer spending business 811 00:50:04,600 --> 00:50:07,800 investment, and government spending that were partly offset 812 00:50:07,800 --> 00:50:11,400 by decreasing or decreases in housing investment, and 813 00:50:11,400 --> 00:50:15,800 inventory investment Imports which are a subtraction in the 814 00:50:15,800 --> 00:50:19,300 calculation of GDP decreased. Alright. 815 00:50:19,300 --> 00:50:25,700 And then I wanted to do one more chart and that is The next slide 816 00:50:26,200 --> 00:50:32,100 Chris, please. This is showing How these kind 817 00:50:32,100 --> 00:50:34,400 of move here and I did have to expand it out. 818 00:50:34,400 --> 00:50:36,700 So it's a little bit blurred, but you can see it's quarter to 819 00:50:36,700 --> 00:50:40,900 quarter change in prices. The top line is gross, domestic 820 00:50:40,900 --> 00:50:45,400 purchases. The dashed blue line, is gross, 821 00:50:45,400 --> 00:50:49,000 domestic purchases, excluding food and energy, then the orange 822 00:50:49,000 --> 00:50:53,900 solid line is pce. That is like CPI but it's the 823 00:50:53,908 --> 00:50:57,000 one that the FED uses and the government usually uses for 824 00:50:57,200 --> 00:51:04,700 things like real GDP is nominal GDP - inflation or - pce. 825 00:51:04,700 --> 00:51:08,500 So this is the what they use, the dashed orange line is core 826 00:51:08,500 --> 00:51:12,100 pce. So what one thing I said about, 827 00:51:12,200 --> 00:51:16,800 I don't know, maybe six months ago, Was that the rest of the 828 00:51:16,800 --> 00:51:22,500 year was going to be a race between inflation dropping or, 829 00:51:22,900 --> 00:51:27,300 you know, CPI these price index is dropping versus nominal GDP 830 00:51:27,300 --> 00:51:30,200 dropping. And you can see in this right 831 00:51:30,200 --> 00:51:36,200 here from Q2 Q3, we had a steep decline in nominal. 832 00:51:36,200 --> 00:51:38,900 GDP, that's the blue solid blue line. 833 00:51:39,500 --> 00:51:44,300 So from basically eight and a half percent down to 5%. 834 00:51:44,500 --> 00:51:51,000 It is a very steep decline in actual nominal, GDP. 835 00:51:51,100 --> 00:51:53,100 It feels like a recession, right? 836 00:51:53,100 --> 00:51:56,500 It's four and a half percent decline in nominal GDP. 837 00:51:57,200 --> 00:52:02,900 But what else happened was pce or the inflation index dropped 838 00:52:02,900 --> 00:52:06,800 even faster. And so, we had this huge drop, 839 00:52:08,300 --> 00:52:12,800 the ability to force, real GDP into the positive territory. 840 00:52:13,100 --> 00:52:15,400 So that's what I have to say. About this. 841 00:52:15,400 --> 00:52:18,600 I think it's going to continue. Fourth quarter will probably see 842 00:52:18,600 --> 00:52:23,100 something very similar with nominal GDP dropping again, but 843 00:52:23,400 --> 00:52:25,900 the pce is going to drop further still. 844 00:52:26,000 --> 00:52:31,200 So it's kind of a race between nominal GDP and inflation and 845 00:52:31,200 --> 00:52:34,800 it's going to end up where real GDP is positive. 846 00:52:34,800 --> 00:52:39,200 So CK, what are your thoughts on GDP as a measurement? 847 00:52:39,200 --> 00:52:41,300 It's kind of a crap measurement. But what's your thoughts on 848 00:52:41,300 --> 00:52:43,200 this? The revision process and all 849 00:52:43,200 --> 00:52:46,300 that? Who? 850 00:52:46,400 --> 00:52:50,500 Well, I mean, just trying to make make sense of everything 851 00:52:50,500 --> 00:52:52,200 here, you know, really what you're into. 852 00:52:52,600 --> 00:52:55,800 If you're just like looking through this pce has always kind 853 00:52:55,800 --> 00:53:01,400 of been less than GDP and therefore, as long as it stays 854 00:53:01,400 --> 00:53:04,500 below, there's going to be some sort of positive GDP numbers. 855 00:53:04,500 --> 00:53:09,400 Even though, even though from like an overall, like growth 856 00:53:09,400 --> 00:53:13,300 percentage perspective, it slower is that kind of what 857 00:53:13,300 --> 00:53:17,000 you're explaining. And yes, I mean this blue line 858 00:53:17,000 --> 00:53:21,900 isn't exactly nominal GDP because this is just gross 859 00:53:21,900 --> 00:53:26,700 domestic purchases and there's other things like Imports that 860 00:53:26,700 --> 00:53:29,200 are factored into actual nominal GDP. 861 00:53:29,400 --> 00:53:33,900 But this kind of shows that economic activity slow down 862 00:53:33,900 --> 00:53:38,400 dramatically but so did the pce index and that's why we have the 863 00:53:38,400 --> 00:53:40,100 prices. Yeah, yep. 864 00:53:40,100 --> 00:53:41,700 And that a lot of that is baked into. 865 00:53:41,700 --> 00:53:47,200 That is is energy. and because you can see that if you exclude 866 00:53:47,200 --> 00:53:54,700 energy and food, you know, it's relatively flat So I mean is 867 00:53:54,700 --> 00:53:57,300 there a point? So do you think that energy and 868 00:53:57,300 --> 00:54:05,000 food prices continue to drop or DC pce starting to flatten for 869 00:54:05,000 --> 00:54:07,900 the u.s.? I think that energy and food 870 00:54:07,900 --> 00:54:12,200 will probably start coming back down but in other parts of the 871 00:54:12,207 --> 00:54:15,900 country or a sorry, other parts of the world is not going to be 872 00:54:15,900 --> 00:54:17,700 like that. I think they're going to have 873 00:54:17,700 --> 00:54:21,900 continued higher prices, may be continued, price increases in 874 00:54:21,900 --> 00:54:25,500 energy and food. But the u.s. specifically, I 875 00:54:25,500 --> 00:54:29,800 think we can see flat to down on those, you know, non-core 876 00:54:29,800 --> 00:54:32,700 things. Yep. 877 00:54:32,700 --> 00:54:34,600 Not make sense. Absolutely makes sense. 878 00:54:34,900 --> 00:54:39,100 Alright, and so whole this been a technical and information 879 00:54:39,100 --> 00:54:42,500 packed show. Thank you for breaking down some 880 00:54:42,500 --> 00:54:45,500 of these Advanced topics for your boy, I appreciate it. 881 00:54:45,700 --> 00:54:49,200 And to everyone listening out there if you enjoy this content, 882 00:54:49,200 --> 00:54:52,300 please like And subscribe. We're pushing out the best 883 00:54:52,300 --> 00:54:55,100 content on the internet in terms of Bitcoin. 884 00:54:55,100 --> 00:54:58,900 As far as I'm concerned over here at Bitcoin magazine and we 885 00:54:58,900 --> 00:55:01,300 need the help of folks. So I canceled to do so. 886 00:55:02,100 --> 00:55:05,900 The add an audience like yourselves in order to to spread 887 00:55:05,900 --> 00:55:08,200 the word. So, appreciate all of y'all, 888 00:55:08,300 --> 00:55:12,200 happy holidays to everyone out there and make sure to come to 889 00:55:12,207 --> 00:55:16,300 the Bitcoin Conference, of course, Bitcoin at 20 23. 890 00:55:16,300 --> 00:55:20,700 May 18 to the 20th in Miami promo, code BM Live, come 891 00:55:20,700 --> 00:55:23,300 celebrate, the end of Bitcoin winter. 892 00:55:23,600 --> 00:55:28,100 You know, antle's bullish or bullish, to May 18 to the 20th. 893 00:55:28,500 --> 00:55:30,100 Things are going up. Clear. 894 00:55:30,100 --> 00:55:33,300 Skies ahead. See y'all, there Merry 895 00:55:33,300 --> 00:55:36,200 Christmas, guys. See you Auntie .me for such 896 00:55:36,200 --> 00:55:39,800 between of markets. What is up? 897 00:55:39,800 --> 00:55:41,800 Audio listeners. 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