1 00:00:01,120 --> 00:00:04,160 Hello and welcome to another episode of the Silk and Steel 2 00:00:04,160 --> 00:00:06,280 podcast. I'm your host, Carl Zaa. 3 00:00:06,720 --> 00:00:12,880 Today I have back on the show Mr. Warwick Powell extinguished 4 00:00:13,400 --> 00:00:17,120 Professor from Australia. Professor Warwick, you are very 5 00:00:17,120 --> 00:00:21,040 much requested on my show. Many people love the appearance. 6 00:00:21,480 --> 00:00:24,640 There's a couple things I want to talk to you about today at 7 00:00:24,640 --> 00:00:26,840 first. First, let's talk about the 8 00:00:26,840 --> 00:00:30,040 recent news that the Trump she call. 9 00:00:30,160 --> 00:00:32,880 What do you think that is about and what do you think he 10 00:00:32,880 --> 00:00:37,080 actually portains any change in the US China relationship? 11 00:00:39,840 --> 00:00:40,960 I think that there's a few things. 12 00:00:41,040 --> 00:00:44,560 Well, it's good to be with you so well, it's nice that that 13 00:00:44,800 --> 00:00:49,800 your community, our viewers, you know, thought that I was worth 14 00:00:49,800 --> 00:00:52,360 listening to. So that's, it's very flattering. 15 00:00:53,440 --> 00:00:56,800 And in fact, you know, if, if people don't think flattery 16 00:00:57,200 --> 00:00:59,240 works, it's because they've never been flattered in their 17 00:00:59,240 --> 00:01:04,760 lives. So, so, so thank you again. 18 00:01:06,760 --> 00:01:11,080 What can we say? The the first thing I think of 19 00:01:11,120 --> 00:01:14,160 interest, and perhaps it's a bit of passing interest before 20 00:01:14,160 --> 00:01:16,680 getting into the substance of it, is that there was a lot of 21 00:01:16,680 --> 00:01:21,720 excitement yesterday on the news of the, the phone call. 22 00:01:22,360 --> 00:01:25,480 Not so much it's because there was a phone call, but because 23 00:01:25,480 --> 00:01:29,280 the media in the mainstream at least broke that. 24 00:01:29,520 --> 00:01:32,600 The call was initiated by the China side and and a whole bunch 25 00:01:32,600 --> 00:01:36,040 of people jumped on that and got very excited by all of this, you 26 00:01:36,040 --> 00:01:40,040 know, waxing on about them, how it's the first time since 1991, 27 00:01:40,600 --> 00:01:44,760 etcetera, etcetera, etcetera. Well, 24 hours later and having 28 00:01:44,760 --> 00:01:48,240 allowed the dust to settle, both sides actually acknowledged that 29 00:01:48,240 --> 00:01:51,840 the call was initiated by Washington, not by Beijing. 30 00:01:51,840 --> 00:01:55,480 So in some respects, all of that excitement was for naughty. 31 00:01:56,720 --> 00:02:00,840 I guess the lesson out of all of that is before folk jump to any 32 00:02:00,840 --> 00:02:04,480 of these sorts of grand conclusions that perhaps they 33 00:02:04,480 --> 00:02:07,320 should just take half a step back, take a take a few deep 34 00:02:07,320 --> 00:02:09,960 breaths, go for a walk, and then have a look at what actually 35 00:02:09,960 --> 00:02:13,680 happened in the, in the coolness of of of day. 36 00:02:13,680 --> 00:02:18,360 Let let time pass a little bit. The IT probably also says 37 00:02:18,360 --> 00:02:20,480 something about how the mainstream Western media is 38 00:02:20,480 --> 00:02:23,840 chronic, is perpetually looking for some angle on something 39 00:02:23,840 --> 00:02:26,760 right? And to a point where they're 40 00:02:26,760 --> 00:02:29,360 making so much stuff up these days, it's hard to keep up with 41 00:02:29,360 --> 00:02:32,360 what's going on. The substance of the call I 42 00:02:32,360 --> 00:02:36,360 think clearly dealt with probably 2 main things. 43 00:02:36,360 --> 00:02:40,280 One was in some respects a follow up operational call post 44 00:02:40,280 --> 00:02:46,040 Busan and the agreements reached in relation to the, the, the, 45 00:02:46,120 --> 00:02:50,840 the trade related issues. And, and clearly those issues 46 00:02:51,480 --> 00:02:56,400 were primary of concern in so far as President Trump's own 47 00:02:56,800 --> 00:03:01,920 social media readout was concerned on the China side. 48 00:03:02,320 --> 00:03:06,000 It touched on those issues. But it also was quite specific 49 00:03:06,000 --> 00:03:07,880 that the question of Taiwan was raised. 50 00:03:07,880 --> 00:03:15,000 And it was raised in the context of an an historical dynamic. 51 00:03:15,000 --> 00:03:18,240 And that is that the United States and China were actually 52 00:03:18,240 --> 00:03:21,720 allies in the war against Japanese fascism and aggression. 53 00:03:22,120 --> 00:03:25,880 And that the resolution of the Taiwan question, particularly in 54 00:03:25,880 --> 00:03:29,120 the context of the Japanese Prime Minister's recent comments 55 00:03:29,120 --> 00:03:32,640 about Taiwan, that the resolution of the Taiwan 56 00:03:32,640 --> 00:03:37,040 question is actually a finalization of the post Second 57 00:03:37,040 --> 00:03:40,920 World War settlement. And therefore, President Xi was 58 00:03:40,920 --> 00:03:45,920 drawing a very strong thread of continuity between the AL 59 00:03:45,920 --> 00:03:49,800 alliance in the Second World War against Japanese aggression and 60 00:03:49,800 --> 00:03:52,640 the finalization of China's reunification. 61 00:03:53,120 --> 00:03:56,720 Now, I don't think that that necessary changes anything in a 62 00:03:56,720 --> 00:04:03,240 daily sense, but quite clearly the the the the Chinese framing 63 00:04:03,280 --> 00:04:07,360 of the Taiwan question vis A vis the United States and Japan 64 00:04:08,840 --> 00:04:12,800 within that broader historical arc, I think is is worth noting. 65 00:04:13,360 --> 00:04:17,680 I don't seem to recall that particular framing ever been 66 00:04:17,839 --> 00:04:20,959 emphasized, certainly not for a long, long time. 67 00:04:20,959 --> 00:04:24,600 If in fact it had been funnily enough, and perhaps not so 68 00:04:24,600 --> 00:04:29,400 funny, perhaps predictably enough, a whole bunch of folk, 69 00:04:30,520 --> 00:04:33,800 you know, who are hostile to the idea of Chinese urine 70 00:04:33,800 --> 00:04:38,560 unification and who are mainly Westerners in favour of, of 71 00:04:38,560 --> 00:04:42,040 Taiwanese independence leapt on this and saying, you know, this 72 00:04:42,040 --> 00:04:45,400 is outrageous. You know, the, the allies during 73 00:04:45,400 --> 00:04:50,040 the Second World War was, was actually the, the Roc and, and, 74 00:04:50,320 --> 00:04:55,040 and the KMT and the United States, not, not the Communists, 75 00:04:55,920 --> 00:04:58,800 you know, I mean, that's a, that's, that's a pretty cheap 76 00:04:58,800 --> 00:05:02,960 trick to play really. Because at the end of the day, 77 00:05:02,960 --> 00:05:04,600 the war was actually between countries. 78 00:05:04,960 --> 00:05:09,280 And, and if you wanted to follow the logic of those folk, you'd 79 00:05:09,280 --> 00:05:12,000 actually say that the Americans were never involved in the war 80 00:05:12,000 --> 00:05:13,400 either. But it was actually a war 81 00:05:13,400 --> 00:05:15,080 engaged in by the Democratic Party. 82 00:05:16,440 --> 00:05:24,120 So, so China was an ally of the United States during the Second 83 00:05:24,120 --> 00:05:28,280 World War. And, and, and that's the end of 84 00:05:28,280 --> 00:05:30,320 the story, right? It continues all the way through 85 00:05:30,320 --> 00:05:33,360 because guess what? Regardless of which side of the 86 00:05:33,360 --> 00:05:37,520 civil war you landed on, you both think that you're fighting 87 00:05:37,520 --> 00:05:40,800 over the one China and, and you both still think that there is 88 00:05:40,800 --> 00:05:43,520 only one China. And you both actually still have 89 00:05:43,520 --> 00:05:46,440 the view officially that the civil war hasn't concluded. 90 00:05:46,440 --> 00:05:52,080 So, you know, I think we are moving inexorably towards a 91 00:05:52,080 --> 00:05:55,280 resolution of the, of this question, this historical 92 00:05:55,280 --> 00:06:00,280 question and, and perhaps the call between XI and Trump and 93 00:06:00,280 --> 00:06:03,160 the way that it was framed from the Chinese side was in many 94 00:06:03,160 --> 00:06:06,440 regards laying the groundwork for this next chapter that to 95 00:06:06,440 --> 00:06:10,960 bring, to bring to bring to an end this, this loose thread. 96 00:06:12,520 --> 00:06:15,120 Yeah. And I think, I think you're 97 00:06:15,120 --> 00:06:17,080 right. This is the first time China 98 00:06:17,680 --> 00:06:22,680 bring up the historical settlement of World War 2 and US 99 00:06:22,680 --> 00:06:27,800 and China should be upholder of the post war global framework. 100 00:06:28,520 --> 00:06:33,000 But we more recent years China had used similar language with 101 00:06:33,000 --> 00:06:38,400 Russia, for example, that that is more in reference to, you 102 00:06:38,400 --> 00:06:41,560 know, kind of the historical revisionism that's going on in 103 00:06:41,560 --> 00:06:46,920 Europe about Soviet Union's role in defeating Nazism. 104 00:06:47,280 --> 00:06:51,160 And, and, and, and this is first I seen this has been kind of 105 00:06:51,160 --> 00:06:55,280 applied to East Asia and also what China want to emphasize. 106 00:06:55,280 --> 00:07:00,160 What's that? Taiwan was returned to China at 107 00:07:00,160 --> 00:07:02,520 the end of War 2. You know, people should not 108 00:07:02,520 --> 00:07:05,160 forget that. And you know, a lot of people 109 00:07:05,160 --> 00:07:08,040 try to ask you skate around the issue like you mentioned. 110 00:07:08,040 --> 00:07:12,360 They, they, they say, oh, Roc was, was a victor of the war, 111 00:07:12,360 --> 00:07:15,200 not the Communist. So, so this has nothing to do 112 00:07:15,200 --> 00:07:18,280 with the communist. But as far as the government in 113 00:07:18,280 --> 00:07:21,520 Beijing concerned, you know, it's all China. 114 00:07:21,680 --> 00:07:24,760 China was Taiwan was returned to China. 115 00:07:25,160 --> 00:07:29,480 That is the end of the story. Now what what we have right now 116 00:07:29,480 --> 00:07:34,960 is a is a a, a, a issue that's from from from from history 117 00:07:34,960 --> 00:07:39,160 that's to be resolved between Chinese people on both side of 118 00:07:39,160 --> 00:07:42,680 the Taiwan Strait. This has nobody else should be 119 00:07:43,160 --> 00:07:46,520 butting in and and interfering a Chinese internal matter. 120 00:07:46,520 --> 00:07:50,600 And and this in particular is a reference to recent statement 121 00:07:50,600 --> 00:07:55,920 made by the Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi and and it 122 00:07:55,920 --> 00:07:59,240 looks like he immediately follow the Xi Jinping Trump call. 123 00:07:59,240 --> 00:08:05,320 Trump actually made a call to Takaichi and, and according to 124 00:08:05,320 --> 00:08:08,800 the Japanese read out only thing they said was that the talk was 125 00:08:08,800 --> 00:08:14,000 friendly, but they release no details other than that. 126 00:08:14,000 --> 00:08:19,560 So I, I, I, it almost seems like Trump made a call to Japan and 127 00:08:19,560 --> 00:08:21,720 telling them, OK, you got to calm down. 128 00:08:22,280 --> 00:08:27,120 We don't need to stir up another big flash spot in East Asia at 129 00:08:27,120 --> 00:08:32,640 this particular point, which seems to give credence to the 130 00:08:34,000 --> 00:08:40,360 the view that right now US is doing a tactical pivot, you 131 00:08:40,360 --> 00:08:46,240 know, not a strategic pivot, but a tactical pivot from East Asia 132 00:08:46,240 --> 00:08:50,480 to to elsewhere, maybe to Venezuela or to Nigeria and 133 00:08:50,480 --> 00:08:56,120 Africa. Do you think this pertains to a 134 00:08:56,120 --> 00:08:59,520 a, a, a a possible day, Tom, between US and China at this 135 00:08:59,520 --> 00:09:06,400 point, at this juncture? And I suspect not the what what 136 00:09:06,400 --> 00:09:10,840 what I think we're saying is a recalibration of means and 137 00:09:10,840 --> 00:09:14,400 method rather than strategic objectives. 138 00:09:14,400 --> 00:09:19,800 So the United States has for a long time had a strategic view, 139 00:09:19,920 --> 00:09:23,800 its national security doctrine, which in essence says that the 140 00:09:23,800 --> 00:09:26,920 security of the United States is contingent upon American 141 00:09:26,920 --> 00:09:30,640 dominance of the world. And that includes, of course, 142 00:09:30,640 --> 00:09:35,480 its position in in East Asia just as much as it included its 143 00:09:35,480 --> 00:09:39,080 position in Eastern Europe. So if you looked at the map, you 144 00:09:39,080 --> 00:09:41,560 do see the United States bookending the Eurasian 145 00:09:41,560 --> 00:09:45,800 continent and ensuring that the peripheries on those on those 146 00:09:45,800 --> 00:09:49,320 bookends were fragmented and divided in ways that would 147 00:09:49,880 --> 00:09:54,720 destabilize the the other great powers in this landmass. 148 00:09:54,840 --> 00:09:57,280 So I don't think the United States has actually shifted its 149 00:09:57,280 --> 00:10:01,800 strategic objectives, which is global hegemony and in in the 150 00:10:01,800 --> 00:10:03,880 name of American National security. 151 00:10:04,200 --> 00:10:06,560 What it has had to do is confront reality. 152 00:10:06,720 --> 00:10:11,720 And it's reality is defined by the fact that it is not now in a 153 00:10:11,720 --> 00:10:16,160 world where it no longer is the unquestioned unipolar hegemon. 154 00:10:16,600 --> 00:10:22,320 That's the first thing we have seen on the European end, the re 155 00:10:22,320 --> 00:10:24,240 emergence of Russia as a great power. 156 00:10:24,240 --> 00:10:26,080 I mean, Russia's always been a nuclear power. 157 00:10:26,200 --> 00:10:30,360 Let's never forget that. But in so far being a an 158 00:10:30,360 --> 00:10:34,040 economic power, a cultural power, a diplomatic power and 159 00:10:34,040 --> 00:10:37,440 arguably A civilizational power, this has been a relatively 160 00:10:37,440 --> 00:10:39,920 recent turn of events. It's certainly far north and a 161 00:10:39,920 --> 00:10:41,960 gas station masquerading as a country. 162 00:10:42,760 --> 00:10:45,440 The second thing is, is that China's emergence over the 163 00:10:45,440 --> 00:10:50,760 course of the last 80 years to a point today where it is in many 164 00:10:50,760 --> 00:10:54,240 respects a peer of the United States and in other respects is 165 00:10:54,280 --> 00:10:58,400 more than a peer of the United States, I think has reshaped the 166 00:10:58,920 --> 00:11:00,600 the question of the balance of power. 167 00:11:01,040 --> 00:11:06,960 So the United States is seeking to modulate how it pursues its 168 00:11:06,960 --> 00:11:10,080 strategic objectives. And it's doing that in large 169 00:11:10,080 --> 00:11:14,880 part by cultivating proxies to carry on the burden, to take the 170 00:11:14,880 --> 00:11:20,360 brunt of any of the of the pressures that come from being 171 00:11:20,360 --> 00:11:24,720 at the front line and to carry some of the financial costs as 172 00:11:24,720 --> 00:11:27,200 well. And we've seen how that's played 173 00:11:27,200 --> 00:11:31,680 out tragically in Ukraine. And clearly, in terms of how 174 00:11:31,680 --> 00:11:35,800 it's mobilizing Japan, the Philippines and Australia, it's 175 00:11:35,800 --> 00:11:38,760 seeking to do similar things. So I don't think the United 176 00:11:38,760 --> 00:11:42,440 States has fundamentally at this point in time, come to a view 177 00:11:42,440 --> 00:11:45,400 that it's in the business of reframing coexistence with 178 00:11:45,400 --> 00:11:49,000 China. It does still seek, particularly 179 00:11:49,000 --> 00:11:52,880 if you spend time reading through the think tank reports 180 00:11:52,880 --> 00:11:58,400 as well as the testimony given to congressional committees, the 181 00:11:58,760 --> 00:12:02,600 the American body politic remains hot and bothered about 182 00:12:02,800 --> 00:12:06,360 China's development and its growth, and it will seek to do 183 00:12:06,360 --> 00:12:10,920 whatever it can to contain it at best, or, if it can possibly do 184 00:12:10,920 --> 00:12:13,360 so, retarded. That's where I think things are 185 00:12:13,360 --> 00:12:17,480 at. Now I now that I want to ask you 186 00:12:17,720 --> 00:12:21,080 that, well, it's obviously America's interest to shift the 187 00:12:21,080 --> 00:12:26,000 burden to its vassal states like Japan and Europe. 188 00:12:27,080 --> 00:12:30,040 What, what is it in it for the vassals? 189 00:12:31,200 --> 00:12:35,240 What's in it for Japan, for example, to stir up the latest 190 00:12:35,720 --> 00:12:40,000 tension with China over prime Japanese prime minister's remark 191 00:12:40,040 --> 00:12:47,200 over how Japan might deploy military to a situation in 192 00:12:47,200 --> 00:12:48,640 Taiwan? Like, why? 193 00:12:49,040 --> 00:12:53,320 What does Japan gain? Or, or I should say, what does 194 00:12:53,320 --> 00:12:58,560 these Japanese politicians gain from picking up fight with China 195 00:12:58,560 --> 00:13:01,240 at this particular juncture? Yeah, look, I think that there's 196 00:13:01,240 --> 00:13:02,840 a few layers to all of this, of course. 197 00:13:02,840 --> 00:13:06,840 So at an individual level, the new Japanese Prime Minister, who 198 00:13:06,840 --> 00:13:10,960 came to office through an internal party ballot, needs to 199 00:13:10,960 --> 00:13:14,160 consolidate her position. She comes from the right wing 200 00:13:14,160 --> 00:13:18,600 end of the political spectrum. She has a history of being an 201 00:13:18,600 --> 00:13:22,120 advocate for historical revisionism both around the 202 00:13:22,120 --> 00:13:24,800 Second World War, broadly speaking, but also in terms of 203 00:13:24,800 --> 00:13:29,440 Japanese atrocities in China. So she comes from that part of 204 00:13:29,440 --> 00:13:32,840 the political spectrum and in the processes of assuming the 205 00:13:32,840 --> 00:13:35,120 prime ministership needs to consolidate that. 206 00:13:35,560 --> 00:13:38,080 In part. I think that this is part of the 207 00:13:38,080 --> 00:13:40,920 calculus, right? The second thing, of course, is 208 00:13:40,920 --> 00:13:43,600 that there's always muscle memory, institutional and 209 00:13:43,600 --> 00:13:48,920 political muscle memory. And we see this in in many 210 00:13:49,160 --> 00:13:53,320 vassal or or quasi vassal countries where political elite 211 00:13:53,720 --> 00:13:58,000 ultimately internalize a particular way of thinking about 212 00:13:58,000 --> 00:14:01,880 their interests, meaning their country's national interests in 213 00:14:01,880 --> 00:14:04,360 ways that subordinate that to the interests of the United 214 00:14:04,360 --> 00:14:07,440 States. So the basic sub imperial 215 00:14:07,440 --> 00:14:10,840 reaction is that what's good for the United States by definition 216 00:14:10,840 --> 00:14:15,160 is good for us. So I think in part this is a a 217 00:14:16,040 --> 00:14:19,600 muscle, a memory or a reflex manoeuvre. 218 00:14:19,920 --> 00:14:27,040 The third thing though is that I think the Japanese strategic and 219 00:14:27,080 --> 00:14:30,520 security and even economic institutions are concerned that 220 00:14:30,520 --> 00:14:35,880 in fact Japan is quite vulnerable both economically and 221 00:14:35,880 --> 00:14:37,680 in a security sense within the region. 222 00:14:38,120 --> 00:14:43,440 And this is this, this recent intervention is, is an attempt 223 00:14:43,440 --> 00:14:48,680 to gain attention, you know, don't forget us, and to Curry 224 00:14:48,680 --> 00:14:52,600 favour, which is to reinforce the idea of don't forget us. 225 00:14:53,000 --> 00:14:55,200 Let's not forget the United States still has something like 226 00:14:55,200 --> 00:14:59,720 55,000 troops in Japan under extraterritorial provisions. 227 00:15:00,040 --> 00:15:04,200 And, and so in some respects, the Japanese remain very 228 00:15:04,200 --> 00:15:08,120 dependent upon the United States for for the provision of 229 00:15:08,120 --> 00:15:11,360 security. In broader regional terms, the 230 00:15:11,520 --> 00:15:15,720 Japanese economy is facing some, you know, significant headwinds. 231 00:15:16,120 --> 00:15:20,200 It's not in a particularly healthy state and and it really 232 00:15:20,200 --> 00:15:24,160 needs to find a way of improving its economic performance. 233 00:15:24,840 --> 00:15:27,040 And from a prime minister's point of view, part of the 234 00:15:27,040 --> 00:15:29,440 political problem is if the economy doesn't improve, you 235 00:15:29,440 --> 00:15:30,960 tend not to last too long anyway. 236 00:15:31,600 --> 00:15:34,880 The second issue I think, which I think is kind of counter 237 00:15:34,880 --> 00:15:38,600 intuitive in so far as these recent interventions go, is that 238 00:15:38,600 --> 00:15:44,080 Japan also faces big issues with regional security, particularly 239 00:15:44,080 --> 00:15:47,240 the the Korean Peninsula and the DPRK. 240 00:15:48,480 --> 00:15:53,520 You know, ruffling China's feathers and undermining the 241 00:15:54,760 --> 00:15:58,640 collaboration that you might have with China as a good office 242 00:15:59,520 --> 00:16:02,280 does not actually help the Japanese stabilize its 243 00:16:02,520 --> 00:16:04,880 relationships in the area or stabilize the region more 244 00:16:04,880 --> 00:16:06,520 generally. And I think that there's a 245 00:16:06,520 --> 00:16:10,160 longer term set of problems too, which I'm not sure the Japanese 246 00:16:10,160 --> 00:16:12,800 political elite have really thought hard about. 247 00:16:13,160 --> 00:16:14,480 Perhaps they're a bit too long term. 248 00:16:14,480 --> 00:16:16,760 And that goes to food and energy security. 249 00:16:18,560 --> 00:16:20,440 Japan is a major importer of energy. 250 00:16:20,720 --> 00:16:22,920 Over 90% of its energy needs are imported. 251 00:16:24,080 --> 00:16:26,000 It imports the majority of its food as well. 252 00:16:26,440 --> 00:16:31,520 And it needs to find a way of stabilizing these critical 253 00:16:31,520 --> 00:16:35,400 inputs. Otherwise it's social stability 254 00:16:35,400 --> 00:16:39,160 will progressively diminish to a point where its economy and 255 00:16:39,160 --> 00:16:41,080 society will cease to function properly. 256 00:16:41,560 --> 00:16:46,200 And all of that, I think places incredible pressure on Japanese 257 00:16:46,200 --> 00:16:49,920 policy makers because in many regards, the things that have 258 00:16:49,920 --> 00:16:54,760 given Japan comfort for, you know, 60-70 years are things 259 00:16:54,760 --> 00:16:57,560 that are stopping its ability to resolve its future problems, 260 00:16:57,560 --> 00:16:59,360 right? So it's right in the middle of a 261 00:16:59,360 --> 00:17:03,840 contradiction at the moment. I, I mean, I, I, I, I'm in 262 00:17:03,840 --> 00:17:08,640 complete agreement about the, the, the, the pending implosion 263 00:17:08,680 --> 00:17:13,000 of the Japanese economy, but wouldn't stirring up trouble 264 00:17:13,000 --> 00:17:15,640 with China worsen that situation? 265 00:17:15,640 --> 00:17:20,160 You know, like for example, the the Japanese tourist tourism 266 00:17:20,160 --> 00:17:24,440 industry is immediately hit in the aftermath of this, this, 267 00:17:24,440 --> 00:17:29,920 this, this, this rising of tensions and, and tourism of 268 00:17:29,920 --> 00:17:32,840 composable 7% of the Japanese GDP. 269 00:17:32,840 --> 00:17:39,600 And how is that going to help to have this rising tension with 270 00:17:39,600 --> 00:17:44,800 China when a lot of Japanese firm, you know, still depending 271 00:17:45,000 --> 00:17:46,880 on the Chinese market for example? 272 00:17:47,520 --> 00:17:50,040 Well, it's not right. So this is the classic 273 00:17:50,520 --> 00:17:55,880 contradiction that Japan finds itself in now and it's being 274 00:17:55,880 --> 00:17:59,160 squeezed economically by Washington through the 275 00:17:59,160 --> 00:18:03,800 imposition of tariffs, demands on Japanese investing surplus 276 00:18:03,800 --> 00:18:07,680 dollars into the American economy under the the guidance 277 00:18:07,680 --> 00:18:13,680 of President Trump. So the Japanese policy makers, 278 00:18:13,680 --> 00:18:16,760 if you will, and politicians of course, as a consequence, I 279 00:18:16,760 --> 00:18:19,240 think are actually in a very, very difficult historical 280 00:18:19,240 --> 00:18:23,000 position. And as I said, the legacy of 281 00:18:23,000 --> 00:18:27,400 what gave Japan its comfort for the past seven decades or so 282 00:18:27,400 --> 00:18:30,000 since the end of the Second World War are actually the 283 00:18:30,000 --> 00:18:33,880 reasons that inhibits the ability of of Japan to navigate 284 00:18:34,400 --> 00:18:36,960 a pathway through its challenges into the future. 285 00:18:37,520 --> 00:18:40,440 Japan's long term economic interests are fundamentally tied 286 00:18:40,440 --> 00:18:43,560 to the region. And, and what that really means 287 00:18:43,560 --> 00:18:47,560 is that it needs to find a way of existing within a region 288 00:18:47,560 --> 00:18:50,920 where it benefits from regional stability whilst contributing to 289 00:18:50,920 --> 00:18:53,920 regional stability. At the moment it can't do any of 290 00:18:53,920 --> 00:18:57,080 that. And and so it is trapped by 291 00:18:57,760 --> 00:19:02,040 these muscle memory reactions coupled with I think that's very 292 00:19:02,680 --> 00:19:06,080 immediate political dynamics, which goes to the revitalization 293 00:19:06,080 --> 00:19:09,960 of nationalism, the sort of political inclinations of the 294 00:19:09,960 --> 00:19:13,360 current Prime Minister given her political pedigree and those 295 00:19:13,360 --> 00:19:15,400 sorts of things. But none of this helps Japan in 296 00:19:15,400 --> 00:19:18,400 the long run. Let let me see if I understand 297 00:19:18,400 --> 00:19:23,640 you correctly by so you're saying Japan's success is this 298 00:19:23,640 --> 00:19:29,600 post war in large part depending on its partnership with United 299 00:19:29,600 --> 00:19:33,200 States, you know, access to the US market in particular. 300 00:19:33,640 --> 00:19:39,880 And but now with with the the the power balance is shifting to 301 00:19:39,880 --> 00:19:43,560 the east with Asia Pacific becoming the most important 302 00:19:44,680 --> 00:19:49,160 dynamic region economically. Japan is having difficulty 303 00:19:49,160 --> 00:19:55,080 making that transition from depending on United States to to 304 00:19:55,320 --> 00:19:59,360 reorient itself to Asia. Is that is that what you're 305 00:19:59,520 --> 00:20:01,480 trying? To say that's right and, and 306 00:20:01,480 --> 00:20:04,200 look, the, the, the, the big issue is it needs to reorient 307 00:20:04,200 --> 00:20:07,560 itself to Asia is around energy and food mixing with, of course, 308 00:20:07,560 --> 00:20:11,360 regional stability and security. When it, when it imports 90 plus 309 00:20:11,360 --> 00:20:16,160 percent of its energy resources, it needs to find access to cheap 310 00:20:16,160 --> 00:20:18,160 energy, right? Cheap and stable energy. 311 00:20:18,440 --> 00:20:21,360 Surprise, surprise, it actually has dispensation from its 312 00:20:21,360 --> 00:20:26,000 Western allies to to continue with getting its gas from the 313 00:20:26,000 --> 00:20:28,360 Sakalin project with the Russians. 314 00:20:28,920 --> 00:20:32,240 But that's but that's just a symptom of its problems, right? 315 00:20:33,440 --> 00:20:37,120 You know, with the United States at the moment pushing its 316 00:20:37,280 --> 00:20:42,800 European allies to essentially become a an American gas client. 317 00:20:43,400 --> 00:20:46,120 It, it, the last thing Japan needs is to be trapped into that 318 00:20:46,120 --> 00:20:47,800 environment as well, because that's just going to be 319 00:20:47,800 --> 00:20:52,160 expensive energy And, and it needs to find a way to having 320 00:20:52,160 --> 00:20:55,320 more independent, cheaper, more reliable energy. 321 00:20:55,320 --> 00:20:57,200 And there's only one. Well, there's a couple of 322 00:20:57,200 --> 00:21:00,280 pathways, right. One of them is of course through 323 00:21:01,200 --> 00:21:04,880 upgrading nuclear capabilities. In the event that it could do 324 00:21:04,880 --> 00:21:09,600 that, it would also need to look at the, the role of renewable 325 00:21:09,600 --> 00:21:13,920 energy Allah, China. And of course it needs to 326 00:21:13,920 --> 00:21:19,520 access, you know, gas and, and it's best source of gas is 327 00:21:19,520 --> 00:21:23,720 actually from, from the Far East of, of Russia. 328 00:21:24,960 --> 00:21:27,760 You know, that that's actually where Japan's future should be. 329 00:21:27,760 --> 00:21:30,840 If Japan had a blank slate to work from, I would think it 330 00:21:30,840 --> 00:21:35,240 would be working at ways of deepening its connectivity into 331 00:21:35,240 --> 00:21:40,520 northern China, into Siberia, because those parts of the world 332 00:21:40,520 --> 00:21:45,200 are actually rich in food and and food capabilities, 333 00:21:45,200 --> 00:21:47,360 agricultural capabilities and of course, energy. 334 00:21:47,920 --> 00:21:51,800 With with the warming of the Arctic, you'll also find that 335 00:21:52,040 --> 00:21:55,720 that that part of the world will become even more accessible as 336 00:21:55,720 --> 00:21:58,760 time goes by, particularly for agriculture and also for energy 337 00:21:58,760 --> 00:22:00,560 as well. But Japan's trapped. 338 00:22:01,080 --> 00:22:03,280 It's trapped by post war arrangements. 339 00:22:03,280 --> 00:22:08,160 It's trapped by the fact that it can't see its way out of its 340 00:22:08,160 --> 00:22:10,920 military alliances with the United States and consequently 341 00:22:10,920 --> 00:22:13,240 is being pulled. Hit her and thither. 342 00:22:15,280 --> 00:22:19,400 That is a very, very incisive insight. 343 00:22:20,120 --> 00:22:24,920 So now I want to pivot to your recent articles that you have 344 00:22:24,920 --> 00:22:28,040 written for your sub stack. I know you are very prolific 345 00:22:28,040 --> 00:22:30,240 writer. You know, you have, I saw you 346 00:22:30,240 --> 00:22:34,400 have many new articles now posted on your sub stack. 347 00:22:35,720 --> 00:22:40,840 Maybe, maybe you can give us my audience just a general rundown 348 00:22:40,920 --> 00:22:42,200 of your thoughts. Yeah. 349 00:22:42,520 --> 00:22:46,440 Yeah, look, well, I'll start actually with with, with the 350 00:22:46,440 --> 00:22:48,960 fact that I learned to touch type when I was 16. 351 00:22:49,400 --> 00:22:51,680 And and that's been incredibly helpful. 352 00:22:51,960 --> 00:22:54,920 At the time when my father made me go and learn to touch type on 353 00:22:54,920 --> 00:22:57,320 a computer, I thought that it was a stupid thing to do. 354 00:22:58,040 --> 00:23:01,880 But, but I guess that's just another example of where those 355 00:23:01,880 --> 00:23:03,600 older than you are often wiser than you. 356 00:23:04,800 --> 00:23:08,240 I also was fortunate enough to benefit from a working 357 00:23:08,240 --> 00:23:13,080 environment where I was forced to initially, but ultimately 358 00:23:13,080 --> 00:23:16,600 developed an ability to dictate, which allows you to be quite 359 00:23:16,600 --> 00:23:20,240 productive. OK, so so in that sense, it 360 00:23:20,240 --> 00:23:24,040 helps me take all the crazy ideas that are racing through my 361 00:23:24,040 --> 00:23:27,760 head and turn them on to words on a screen reasonably quickly. 362 00:23:28,840 --> 00:23:32,920 The body of work really focuses on a series of interrelated 363 00:23:32,920 --> 00:23:38,480 themes, and the themes really are anchored by something that 364 00:23:38,480 --> 00:23:42,600 I've come to call either a systemic exchange value 365 00:23:42,600 --> 00:23:47,200 framework of thinking about economic systems or probably in, 366 00:23:48,000 --> 00:23:51,200 you know, more interesting or more marketable terms, this idea 367 00:23:51,200 --> 00:23:54,640 of thermoeconomics. And that's the idea that human 368 00:23:54,640 --> 00:23:59,280 societies, economic systems are fundamentally material in 369 00:23:59,280 --> 00:24:01,960 nature, and they involve energy transformations, right? 370 00:24:01,960 --> 00:24:05,440 We are natural. This is how nature works, and 371 00:24:05,720 --> 00:24:08,920 the substrate of our societies and our economic systems is 372 00:24:08,920 --> 00:24:13,760 actually how we harness energy from nature, mobilize that 373 00:24:13,760 --> 00:24:18,520 through work, and create new forms of energy that are 374 00:24:18,520 --> 00:24:22,360 actually useful for human societies, both in short term 375 00:24:22,520 --> 00:24:27,040 terms and also in terms of the institutions and the resources 376 00:24:27,040 --> 00:24:30,240 that we make available for things that go beyond 377 00:24:30,240 --> 00:24:32,840 reproduction. So there's a very materialist 378 00:24:32,840 --> 00:24:36,640 view, if you will, around our economic systems. 379 00:24:37,000 --> 00:24:43,160 Intersecting all of this is the idea that we have monetary 380 00:24:43,280 --> 00:24:47,000 considerations. And I guess my starting point on 381 00:24:47,000 --> 00:24:51,080 questions around money really derives from very early on 382 00:24:51,080 --> 00:24:57,280 thinking from the the 1800s and even into the 1900s, which views 383 00:24:58,240 --> 00:25:03,080 money in some respects as an endogenous feature of economic 384 00:25:03,080 --> 00:25:06,680 systems and is in large part a claim on the future, right. 385 00:25:06,680 --> 00:25:10,800 So I don't sort of view money as a thing that people have, let 386 00:25:10,800 --> 00:25:13,960 alone a thing that's that we have scarcity about because we 387 00:25:13,960 --> 00:25:18,560 have to find that in nature. But money is really a, a promise 388 00:25:18,560 --> 00:25:23,280 that we make that enables us to exchange for things in the 389 00:25:23,280 --> 00:25:25,680 future. So it's, it's a claim into the 390 00:25:25,680 --> 00:25:27,680 future. And the third part of all of 391 00:25:27,680 --> 00:25:31,000 this, which is the bit that actually always interested me 392 00:25:31,000 --> 00:25:33,600 far more than the other elements, is the role of 393 00:25:33,600 --> 00:25:36,360 information. So information systems actually 394 00:25:36,360 --> 00:25:39,960 hold all of this together because without that, these 395 00:25:39,960 --> 00:25:43,880 different circuits, if you will, of monetary autonomy, of 396 00:25:44,240 --> 00:25:47,040 material and energetic transformations in the world 397 00:25:47,200 --> 00:25:50,480 don't coordinate properly. And, and when they don't 398 00:25:50,480 --> 00:25:54,080 coordinate properly, by the way, and we have major problems, 399 00:25:54,080 --> 00:25:56,320 right? So we saw that in the global 400 00:25:56,320 --> 00:26:00,600 financial crisis, when the monetary circuits essentially 401 00:26:00,600 --> 00:26:03,840 spun off into orbit, they became totally detached from the 402 00:26:03,840 --> 00:26:06,680 ability of the real world to to keep up. 403 00:26:07,240 --> 00:26:11,080 And, and once there were more claims being made on the future 404 00:26:11,080 --> 00:26:15,280 than the future could deliver, we started to get crises. 405 00:26:15,920 --> 00:26:18,000 But we also have other kinds of crises too. 406 00:26:18,400 --> 00:26:21,840 And the fundamental crisis that we constantly face is this 407 00:26:21,840 --> 00:26:26,320 tension between this idea of entropy, right, which is the, 408 00:26:26,760 --> 00:26:29,920 the, the complexity of systems and the breaking up of, of 409 00:26:29,920 --> 00:26:35,440 systems with, and that's part of the natural world with human 410 00:26:35,440 --> 00:26:39,960 efforts to counteract that right, which is to bring order, 411 00:26:39,960 --> 00:26:43,240 bring shape, bring consistency and stability. 412 00:26:43,640 --> 00:26:47,320 And this dialectic at work between the natural dynamics of 413 00:26:47,640 --> 00:26:51,600 energetic systems, which is towards entropy, and human 414 00:26:51,600 --> 00:26:56,600 efforts to control that, I think are fundamentally key drivers to 415 00:26:56,880 --> 00:26:58,840 the challenges and opportunities that we have. 416 00:26:59,360 --> 00:27:01,880 And one way of thinking about that, I'm rushing through a bit 417 00:27:01,880 --> 00:27:05,200 of this, Carl, but I hope your viewers will bear with it, is 418 00:27:05,200 --> 00:27:09,520 this idea that because we're interested in how energy 419 00:27:10,000 --> 00:27:15,200 underpins everything, what makes modern societies work is our 420 00:27:15,200 --> 00:27:21,960 ability to continually improve the energy return on energy 421 00:27:21,960 --> 00:27:27,040 invested. So when humans go out there and, 422 00:27:27,080 --> 00:27:31,240 and mobilize resources in the world and then convert those 423 00:27:31,240 --> 00:27:34,320 resources into energy forms that we find useful, whether by 424 00:27:34,320 --> 00:27:39,560 burning things or, or making things move and, and stuff, the 425 00:27:39,560 --> 00:27:44,280 amount of energy that we have to use to get access to this next 426 00:27:44,400 --> 00:27:47,640 batch of energy, that's the energy return on energy 427 00:27:47,640 --> 00:27:51,200 invested. And the higher that is, the more 428 00:27:51,200 --> 00:27:54,160 surplus energy there is beyond what we need to reproduce that 429 00:27:54,160 --> 00:27:59,800 activity. So think of it like an A hunting 430 00:27:59,800 --> 00:28:04,000 animal, right? That the tiger that has to hunt 431 00:28:04,000 --> 00:28:06,360 for its food to be able to sustain itself. 432 00:28:07,280 --> 00:28:13,440 So when a tiger happens to catch an animal and consumes it, the 433 00:28:13,440 --> 00:28:17,680 energy that it gets from that animal through nutrition and all 434 00:28:17,680 --> 00:28:21,720 of that must be enough for that tiger not only to be able to 435 00:28:21,720 --> 00:28:25,360 catch the next animal, but it actually must be enough for that 436 00:28:25,360 --> 00:28:30,520 tiger to chase and fail to catch six other animals and also lie 437 00:28:30,520 --> 00:28:38,120 around and also breed and spend time protecting, you know, young 438 00:28:38,120 --> 00:28:41,960 tigers from threats. So the surplus energy that comes 439 00:28:41,960 --> 00:28:46,280 from what has been caught and consumed must actually enable 440 00:28:46,280 --> 00:28:47,640 all these other things to happen. 441 00:28:49,120 --> 00:28:51,680 One of the areas that I do a lot of work in as a result of all of 442 00:28:51,680 --> 00:28:54,680 this is actually telling alternative stories about the 443 00:28:54,680 --> 00:28:57,720 Chinese economy. So I, I tend to use the Chinese 444 00:28:57,720 --> 00:29:00,560 economy, if you will, as my sounding board. 445 00:29:01,320 --> 00:29:05,000 And that draws on my sort of long standing academic interests 446 00:29:05,000 --> 00:29:08,120 and eventually professional interests in what's happening in 447 00:29:08,120 --> 00:29:10,840 China, not to mention personal interests. 448 00:29:11,280 --> 00:29:15,360 And so I try to bring all these. Threads together, right? 449 00:29:16,760 --> 00:29:19,760 It's usually my way of thinking about the world, Kyle, trying to 450 00:29:19,760 --> 00:29:21,960 figure it out for myself first and foremost, right? 451 00:29:21,960 --> 00:29:27,400 And, and perhaps because I'm a glutton for punishment, perhaps 452 00:29:27,400 --> 00:29:32,400 because if there's one thing I'm OK at, I'm able to at least 453 00:29:32,400 --> 00:29:37,280 communicate some of these ideas. I find it's a it's a nice way 454 00:29:37,280 --> 00:29:45,120 firstly to get all this stuff together, sort it all out in my 455 00:29:45,120 --> 00:29:49,640 own mind and by sharing it maybe help other people think about 456 00:29:50,040 --> 00:29:54,840 the world as well. Just to piggyback on some of 457 00:29:54,840 --> 00:30:01,040 your ideas, I mean, I, I find this, this energy based thinking 458 00:30:01,360 --> 00:30:05,880 quite fascinating because this kind of corresponds to, you 459 00:30:05,880 --> 00:30:09,520 know, our more recent history with the industrial revolution 460 00:30:09,520 --> 00:30:14,520 was essentially we human beings start to unlock the power of 461 00:30:14,520 --> 00:30:18,560 fossil fuels and suddenly they get access to this new source of 462 00:30:18,560 --> 00:30:21,760 a band founded energy. And then later they move from 463 00:30:22,240 --> 00:30:27,000 coal to even more efficient fossil fuel like oil and gas. 464 00:30:27,680 --> 00:30:32,040 And, and, and, and now, now it looks like we are in the next 465 00:30:32,040 --> 00:30:35,080 phase. You know, China is leading the 466 00:30:35,080 --> 00:30:39,960 way in many in many aspects, for example, in exploring the 467 00:30:39,960 --> 00:30:45,120 renewable and China has made this the solar panels price fall 468 00:30:45,360 --> 00:30:48,520 98% in the past two decades, for example. 469 00:30:49,520 --> 00:30:53,920 But go go along those along those veins. 470 00:30:53,920 --> 00:30:56,200 I'm thinking, I'm now I'm actually thinking about United 471 00:30:56,200 --> 00:31:01,440 States because US actually do have abundant hydrocarbon 472 00:31:01,440 --> 00:31:06,440 resources, particularly after the shell, the, the, the 473 00:31:06,440 --> 00:31:12,120 fracking shell revolution and United States also have employed 474 00:31:12,160 --> 00:31:14,880 a lot of capital in the information space. 475 00:31:14,880 --> 00:31:19,600 So you know, US is actually in many aspects leading in for 476 00:31:19,600 --> 00:31:23,840 example, in AI and, and, and information technology. 477 00:31:24,200 --> 00:31:31,200 Then why is why the overall sense even inside the US is that 478 00:31:31,760 --> 00:31:34,720 the US is in trouble somehow like like you should have 479 00:31:34,720 --> 00:31:37,520 everything going for it, right? It has abundant energy. 480 00:31:37,760 --> 00:31:41,080 You have all the the the information tech technology at 481 00:31:41,080 --> 00:31:44,840 its proposal and it was you have the ability to brain drain on 482 00:31:44,840 --> 00:31:48,920 the rest of the world to get the suck the human capital to US. 483 00:31:49,160 --> 00:31:53,080 Why is it seems things are falling apart? 484 00:31:54,240 --> 00:31:58,160 Well, I think we can look at the three threads, right, which is 485 00:31:58,160 --> 00:32:01,360 this energetic transformation thread, the financial thread and 486 00:32:01,360 --> 00:32:04,200 the information thread. So these are the three sort of 487 00:32:04,200 --> 00:32:09,400 core elements that I guess constitute the the critical 488 00:32:09,400 --> 00:32:13,160 parameters of my own theoretical thinking about social and 489 00:32:13,160 --> 00:32:16,120 economic systems. And in fact, information itself 490 00:32:16,120 --> 00:32:20,320 is an energetic thing, right? Which we don't normally think 491 00:32:20,320 --> 00:32:23,600 about that way, you know, we often just trade information as 492 00:32:23,640 --> 00:32:26,800 a, as a, as a free something or another, right? 493 00:32:27,480 --> 00:32:30,920 But information itself is deeply energetic because it requires 494 00:32:30,920 --> 00:32:33,640 certain amounts of energy to collect information, to store 495 00:32:33,640 --> 00:32:36,760 information, to disseminate information, to process 496 00:32:36,760 --> 00:32:41,320 information, etcetera, etcetera. And AI actually is a great way 497 00:32:41,320 --> 00:32:43,920 of understanding how energetically embodied 498 00:32:43,920 --> 00:32:47,520 information can be. But one of the challenges in 499 00:32:47,520 --> 00:32:50,560 thinking about, I think, places like the United States, but not 500 00:32:50,560 --> 00:32:54,080 only the US, but generally countries and civilizations 501 00:32:54,080 --> 00:32:56,720 around the world, is to understand the ebbs and flows of 502 00:32:57,000 --> 00:32:59,640 this issue of the energy return on energy invested. 503 00:32:59,640 --> 00:33:04,760 So EROEII think is the key that helps us unlock some of these 504 00:33:04,760 --> 00:33:07,200 mysteries. The United States did have 505 00:33:07,200 --> 00:33:11,760 abundant and high EROEI energy resources. 506 00:33:12,560 --> 00:33:16,320 It was, you know, the oil was more or less floating to the 507 00:33:16,320 --> 00:33:21,000 surface right back in the day. So it was actually very easy to 508 00:33:21,080 --> 00:33:24,800 extract and relatively straightforward to move from 509 00:33:24,800 --> 00:33:28,040 point A to point B. As time went by, Of course, as 510 00:33:28,040 --> 00:33:31,480 you take away the easy stuff, you end up having to commit more 511 00:33:31,480 --> 00:33:36,000 and more energy to get the next, next hit, so to speak. 512 00:33:36,480 --> 00:33:39,240 And eventually it reached a point where, with some of the 513 00:33:39,240 --> 00:33:42,360 fracking now, it is increasingly difficult. 514 00:33:42,360 --> 00:33:46,240 It requires more energetic effort to get the next Joule of 515 00:33:46,240 --> 00:33:49,960 energy available for humans to put to work. 516 00:33:50,680 --> 00:33:52,760 It certainly hasn't reached negative territory by any 517 00:33:52,760 --> 00:33:55,440 stretch of the imagination, but it is. 518 00:33:55,520 --> 00:34:01,000 But what it means as your EROEI gets smaller is that those 519 00:34:01,000 --> 00:34:04,480 surpluses available for other social and economic things 520 00:34:04,480 --> 00:34:06,480 diminishes. So think about that animal that 521 00:34:06,480 --> 00:34:10,800 that tiger cord we're having to spend more money that tigers 522 00:34:10,800 --> 00:34:15,159 having to spend more energy running after a faster but 523 00:34:15,159 --> 00:34:18,880 scrawnier animal. So when it does catch something, 524 00:34:18,880 --> 00:34:21,639 it's actually getting less energy, having spent more energy 525 00:34:21,639 --> 00:34:24,520 getting it. That's the dilemma that I think 526 00:34:24,520 --> 00:34:29,120 the US is in now. It can change that equation 527 00:34:29,280 --> 00:34:31,639 through a number of things. One is through technological 528 00:34:31,639 --> 00:34:36,800 advancements, which of course have uncertainty attached to 529 00:34:36,800 --> 00:34:38,320 them. It may or may not work. 530 00:34:38,520 --> 00:34:43,880 We may discover new ways of tapping hydrocarbons that 531 00:34:43,880 --> 00:34:46,800 weren't available before, and that makes it more energy 532 00:34:46,800 --> 00:34:48,719 efficient. Another way, of course, is to 533 00:34:48,719 --> 00:34:53,920 shift the things like nuclear. And the third way is, of course, 534 00:34:53,920 --> 00:34:56,400 moving into these this sort of renewable space. 535 00:34:56,880 --> 00:35:00,960 The challenge in the US is that energy has been heavily 536 00:35:00,960 --> 00:35:05,680 politicized through vested interests and ideology, whereas 537 00:35:06,000 --> 00:35:10,720 China literally doesn't have that level of politicization 538 00:35:10,720 --> 00:35:13,080 over energy. Yeah, sure. 539 00:35:13,080 --> 00:35:16,480 You know, there are parts of a country that are more abundant 540 00:35:16,480 --> 00:35:20,280 in coal, for example. And coal will, whilst it's been 541 00:35:20,280 --> 00:35:23,720 growing, plays a proportionately lesser role in the in the 542 00:35:23,720 --> 00:35:27,920 growth, but but it doesn't have the same sort of political pool 543 00:35:28,440 --> 00:35:31,320 as oil interests do in the United States, for example. 544 00:35:31,320 --> 00:35:34,200 So I think that's your first problem that the United States 545 00:35:34,200 --> 00:35:36,720 confronts. The second one is this AI issue 546 00:35:36,720 --> 00:35:38,160 and how that intersects with energy. 547 00:35:38,600 --> 00:35:46,240 And because energy's actually increasingly more expensive to 548 00:35:46,240 --> 00:35:51,160 make available and the delivery infrastructure is not up to 549 00:35:51,160 --> 00:35:54,680 scratch to be able to get electricity to where it needs to 550 00:35:54,680 --> 00:35:57,160 go. Given the proliferation of new 551 00:35:57,160 --> 00:36:02,080 uses, namely AI data centers, you run into a few challenges. 1 552 00:36:02,080 --> 00:36:09,960 is that AI data centers start to compete with other demands for 553 00:36:09,960 --> 00:36:12,720 electricity. And the one thing that that 554 00:36:12,720 --> 00:36:14,520 always does is that it drives up prices. 555 00:36:14,520 --> 00:36:18,960 And we're seeing that The second thing that that's doing is that 556 00:36:18,960 --> 00:36:22,480 it also means that that the energetic cost of information 557 00:36:22,480 --> 00:36:25,920 processing rises as well. So suddenly something that in 558 00:36:25,920 --> 00:36:29,200 theory should have been incredibly low cost energy wise, 559 00:36:29,600 --> 00:36:32,400 not just financially, but energy wise actually becomes higher 560 00:36:32,400 --> 00:36:36,200 cost than we ever thought. And if we actually understand 561 00:36:36,240 --> 00:36:40,800 information as embodied energy as well, then we do actually 562 00:36:40,800 --> 00:36:44,160 have to confront the fact that not all information is good 563 00:36:44,160 --> 00:36:47,040 information. If that information costs more 564 00:36:47,040 --> 00:36:51,960 energy to make available than the energetic benefits of that 565 00:36:51,960 --> 00:36:53,160 information. In other words, does that 566 00:36:53,160 --> 00:36:54,920 information help us deal with entropy? 567 00:36:55,320 --> 00:36:57,160 Does it help us coordinate things better? 568 00:36:57,160 --> 00:37:00,120 Does it help us create new technologies, etcetera, 569 00:37:00,120 --> 00:37:04,280 etcetera. And if you end up with and AI 570 00:37:04,280 --> 00:37:11,600 infrastructure that focuses on adults only, only fan style 571 00:37:11,800 --> 00:37:17,360 staff or you know what, what whatever else Sam Altman's 572 00:37:17,360 --> 00:37:21,240 talked about, then that arguably is actually not energy 573 00:37:21,240 --> 00:37:25,400 productive fraud as a way of that that kind of information is 574 00:37:25,400 --> 00:37:28,760 actually not, not not an energy productive information use of 575 00:37:28,760 --> 00:37:31,280 information. So I think that they're the 576 00:37:31,280 --> 00:37:33,760 challenges the US faces. Whereas when you go to a place 577 00:37:33,760 --> 00:37:36,720 like China, there's a lot less of that stuff. 578 00:37:36,720 --> 00:37:41,000 There's also much less effort put into pursuing, you know, 579 00:37:41,000 --> 00:37:44,880 human or or Western humanities aspirations to replace God. 580 00:37:45,360 --> 00:37:50,160 So there's very little sense that AI is about artificial 581 00:37:50,160 --> 00:37:54,040 general intelligence. You know, when I talk to 582 00:37:54,040 --> 00:37:59,560 colleagues in China, in the AI space in particular, no one ever 583 00:37:59,560 --> 00:38:01,520 talks to me about artificial intelligence. 584 00:38:02,880 --> 00:38:04,960 It just doesn't seem to be the driver. 585 00:38:04,960 --> 00:38:08,280 What seems to be the driver, of course, is things like how do we 586 00:38:08,280 --> 00:38:12,480 embed this so that calculations can be done quicker, smarter, 587 00:38:12,480 --> 00:38:14,880 more accurately, so that something else can happen 588 00:38:14,880 --> 00:38:17,440 quickly. So it's all about creating 589 00:38:17,440 --> 00:38:21,920 abundance again, constantly about speed, abundance, making 590 00:38:21,920 --> 00:38:23,800 surplus energy available for other things. 591 00:38:24,920 --> 00:38:29,640 I saw on on X recently an American Chinese scholar visited 592 00:38:29,640 --> 00:38:34,120 China and came back saying oh you know, didn't see AI anywhere 593 00:38:34,120 --> 00:38:36,480 explicitly being used by Chinese consumers. 594 00:38:36,760 --> 00:38:39,680 Well that's the point. Most of the AI is actually 595 00:38:39,680 --> 00:38:44,000 embedded in the back engine. There's no button that says AI. 596 00:38:45,240 --> 00:38:48,120 It literally is happening in the back engine, enabling things 597 00:38:48,120 --> 00:38:52,680 like drones to deliver things quicker, cheaper, transport 598 00:38:52,680 --> 00:38:55,920 systems to work quicker, cheaper, more efficiently, ports 599 00:38:55,920 --> 00:39:00,040 to unload container ships in 40 minutes instead of eight hours. 600 00:39:00,440 --> 00:39:02,200 That's where this is all happening now. 601 00:39:05,000 --> 00:39:08,440 So I think the US actually, in terms of the USI think the part 602 00:39:08,440 --> 00:39:11,560 of the the challenge is the accumulated surplus energies 603 00:39:11,560 --> 00:39:16,560 over historical time is a lot. We've also got a financial 604 00:39:16,560 --> 00:39:20,600 circuit that has literally spun out of control, which means that 605 00:39:20,600 --> 00:39:23,960 there is actually a lot of financial capability, meaning 606 00:39:23,960 --> 00:39:26,840 that the claims that could be made on the future are huge. 607 00:39:27,280 --> 00:39:31,120 The problem for America at the moment is that the future really 608 00:39:31,120 --> 00:39:33,640 isn't in a position to deliver on all those claims. 609 00:39:35,360 --> 00:39:39,640 But but you know, you talk about the role of money and US is 610 00:39:39,640 --> 00:39:42,920 actually in control of the money supply, right? 611 00:39:42,920 --> 00:39:47,120 I mean like. Kinda part of the difficulty 612 00:39:47,120 --> 00:39:50,480 with this idea of controlling money supply is that the vast 613 00:39:50,480 --> 00:39:54,600 majority of money capital floating through the the 614 00:39:54,600 --> 00:39:57,240 economic system in America actually comes from bank credit. 615 00:39:58,320 --> 00:40:01,480 No one directly controls that. That comes from borrowers 616 00:40:01,640 --> 00:40:05,680 seeking credit and commercial banks are taking the view that 617 00:40:05,680 --> 00:40:09,840 the borrowers are credit worthy. So it's all this. 618 00:40:09,920 --> 00:40:11,480 So credit actually comes that way. 619 00:40:13,920 --> 00:40:16,520 Which enters into the system obviously there's also 620 00:40:16,520 --> 00:40:18,960 government spending, but government spending is a 621 00:40:18,960 --> 00:40:22,840 proportion of the of these two line items, so to speak is 622 00:40:23,400 --> 00:40:27,520 actually in the minority. So there is no authority that 623 00:40:27,520 --> 00:40:29,040 can actually control money supply. 624 00:40:29,400 --> 00:40:33,360 What they try to do is manage system liquidity, right, which 625 00:40:33,360 --> 00:40:38,680 is what taxes is all about. And and so when when taxes are 626 00:40:38,680 --> 00:40:41,080 imposed. Oh, and temporary system 627 00:40:41,080 --> 00:40:45,480 liquidity management tools as well, which is what financial 628 00:40:46,120 --> 00:40:49,400 products is all about, right. You know, give me your U.S. 629 00:40:49,400 --> 00:40:51,720 dollars in exchange, I'll give you something which allows you 630 00:40:51,720 --> 00:40:54,720 to make a claim on something or other down the track, whether 631 00:40:54,720 --> 00:40:57,240 it's shares, whether it's options, whether it's a contract 632 00:40:57,240 --> 00:41:00,880 for difference, whether it's it's a debt instrument like a 633 00:41:01,720 --> 00:41:03,080 well federal government back bond. 634 00:41:03,520 --> 00:41:06,880 It can be any of these things, but they're trying to drain 635 00:41:06,880 --> 00:41:08,760 dollars out of the system at the same time. 636 00:41:08,760 --> 00:41:13,240 So if you imagine an economic system has a bunch of buckets 637 00:41:13,240 --> 00:41:17,960 and pipes, you've got all these taps everywhere pouring in, and 638 00:41:17,960 --> 00:41:20,720 then you've got to drain it because the buckets are, the 639 00:41:20,720 --> 00:41:23,720 buckets do grow, but they can only grow at a certain rate. 640 00:41:23,720 --> 00:41:27,040 And if you've got too much flowing, eventually things 641 00:41:27,040 --> 00:41:28,800 overflow. So they're creating new buckets 642 00:41:28,800 --> 00:41:31,840 as well, right? So this, so you know, finance is 643 00:41:31,840 --> 00:41:35,040 fantastic for this because it actually doesn't take much 644 00:41:35,560 --> 00:41:38,880 effort all time to create a financial instrument regulated 645 00:41:38,880 --> 00:41:40,440 as it is. Suddenly you've got a new 646 00:41:40,440 --> 00:41:43,800 financial instrument, a whole bunch of institutional liquidity 647 00:41:43,800 --> 00:41:48,000 gets poured into it and so it drains money capital out of the 648 00:41:48,000 --> 00:41:50,200 system again in exchange for an interest rate. 649 00:41:50,560 --> 00:41:53,080 So this is what they're constantly trying to do, trying 650 00:41:53,080 --> 00:41:57,960 to at an aggregate level manage liquidity levels, not always 651 00:41:57,960 --> 00:42:00,760 successfully. But the other feature of this 652 00:42:01,240 --> 00:42:07,640 circulation system is that most of this circulation literally 653 00:42:07,640 --> 00:42:14,400 circulates to the top and, and, and that in and of itself 654 00:42:14,520 --> 00:42:18,720 depletes the real economy of, you know, the, the, the money 655 00:42:18,720 --> 00:42:22,520 capital that could be used to mobilize real resources. 656 00:42:22,520 --> 00:42:28,520 So because those who accumulate money, capital and actually end 657 00:42:28,520 --> 00:42:33,080 up accumulating masses of fictitious capital assets, you 658 00:42:33,080 --> 00:42:39,560 know, the, you know, claims on the future rights, not that much 659 00:42:39,560 --> 00:42:43,720 of it goes in relatively speaking, goes into significant 660 00:42:43,720 --> 00:42:49,440 renewable renewing of fixed capital, you know, factories, 661 00:42:49,440 --> 00:42:50,800 machines and all that sort of stuff. 662 00:42:51,600 --> 00:42:54,200 But professor, what about trickle down economy? 663 00:42:54,520 --> 00:42:57,840 I mean, doesn't the wealth start trickle down from the top to the 664 00:42:57,840 --> 00:43:01,560 bottom? That's a great theory, you know, 665 00:43:01,560 --> 00:43:03,400 for those, for those who have the wealth. 666 00:43:04,280 --> 00:43:07,520 And it's a very bad reality for those who have to suffer. 667 00:43:10,000 --> 00:43:11,880 Yeah, that, that, that, that's fair. 668 00:43:13,320 --> 00:43:15,960 What, what? How would let's say, let's say 669 00:43:15,960 --> 00:43:22,240 how you know, the Trump reaction is apparently attempt to try to 670 00:43:22,240 --> 00:43:28,000 fix the mess the US is in, and it's so far not very successful. 671 00:43:28,760 --> 00:43:33,840 What would is it possible at this point to fix the structural 672 00:43:33,840 --> 00:43:36,480 problems that US faces, you know, with a highly 673 00:43:36,480 --> 00:43:43,440 financialized economy, lots of vested interest and almost great 674 00:43:43,440 --> 00:43:47,840 lot lot political system? Is there is there any hope for 675 00:43:47,840 --> 00:43:52,080 for reform? Look, it's very hard for softly, 676 00:43:52,080 --> 00:43:56,840 softly reforms and even I think the efforts by this 677 00:43:56,840 --> 00:44:00,160 administration, you probably wouldn't call them traditional 678 00:44:00,160 --> 00:44:04,560 softly, softly reforms. But even that is really not 679 00:44:04,560 --> 00:44:06,640 shaking the system structurally, right? 680 00:44:06,640 --> 00:44:13,080 So in part it's premised on a misdiagnosis of the problem. 681 00:44:13,800 --> 00:44:17,400 It sees symptoms, but it has misdiagnosed causes. 682 00:44:17,400 --> 00:44:23,840 And so, for instance, it sees trade and trade imbalances as as 683 00:44:23,840 --> 00:44:27,640 a problem to be solved, and it thinks you solve that by dealing 684 00:44:27,640 --> 00:44:33,800 with relative prices via tariffs that will affect the flows at a 685 00:44:33,800 --> 00:44:36,800 trade level. The problem is, is that trade is 686 00:44:36,800 --> 00:44:38,920 really just a function of production distribution. 687 00:44:39,840 --> 00:44:42,520 And you've got to go to the heart of the question, which is 688 00:44:43,240 --> 00:44:45,920 if we're not, if we're buying lots of stuff, it's because 689 00:44:45,920 --> 00:44:50,200 we're not making that stuff. Stopping this stuff coming isn't 690 00:44:50,200 --> 00:44:52,760 the answer. We've got to figure out why it 691 00:44:52,760 --> 00:44:55,560 is that we don't make this stuff and then figure out how it is 692 00:44:55,560 --> 00:45:00,520 that we can make this stuff in a way that is comparable to the 693 00:45:00,520 --> 00:45:03,440 stuff that we buy. And you've got to always come 694 00:45:03,440 --> 00:45:05,480 back to fixing production systems. 695 00:45:05,880 --> 00:45:09,120 And if and what are production systems, as we were discussing 696 00:45:09,120 --> 00:45:11,720 earlier, they're just energetic transformation systems in large 697 00:45:11,720 --> 00:45:15,840 part. So, so you've got to solve that. 698 00:45:15,840 --> 00:45:19,080 You've got to, you've got to tackle this question of energy 699 00:45:19,080 --> 00:45:21,840 systems in the long run. Once you can solve energy 700 00:45:21,840 --> 00:45:24,800 systems in the long run, you've got a chance of solving 701 00:45:24,800 --> 00:45:27,640 information systems that are energetic in part, but are 702 00:45:27,640 --> 00:45:32,040 necessary to releasing the productive forces, so to speak. 703 00:45:32,840 --> 00:45:35,520 None of that is part of the the agenda at the moment. 704 00:45:35,520 --> 00:45:39,400 Now we can go into all sorts of things that make viable 705 00:45:39,400 --> 00:45:42,280 production economies actually work. 706 00:45:42,280 --> 00:45:45,160 You know, you need a workforce that has the right skills. 707 00:45:45,160 --> 00:45:48,680 You need people with reasonably high levels of literacy and 708 00:45:48,680 --> 00:45:51,280 numeracy. That's actually not what the 709 00:45:51,360 --> 00:45:53,360 contemporary United States delivers. 710 00:45:53,400 --> 00:45:55,960 It actually does the reverse, which means it has to pull 711 00:45:55,960 --> 00:45:59,040 people in from around the world, which then exacerbates a bunch 712 00:45:59,040 --> 00:46:01,720 of social problems because there are sections of the American 713 00:46:01,720 --> 00:46:07,560 community that hate that idea. And so then you've got finance, 714 00:46:07,840 --> 00:46:11,240 you know, given their druthers, finance capital will happily 715 00:46:11,240 --> 00:46:15,680 trade for profit through financial instruments, then take 716 00:46:15,680 --> 00:46:19,200 the punt on investing in a three to five year fixed capital 717 00:46:19,200 --> 00:46:21,960 project where the returns are uncertain. 718 00:46:22,520 --> 00:46:27,040 And so unless you can bring finance to heel and cause 719 00:46:27,040 --> 00:46:32,160 finance to actually be committed to not just buying more capital 720 00:46:32,160 --> 00:46:35,400 equipment and building a box around it, but committing to 721 00:46:35,400 --> 00:46:39,680 investing in the people and the systems and the processes, none 722 00:46:39,680 --> 00:46:41,240 of that's going to matter either, right. 723 00:46:41,240 --> 00:46:47,480 So the accumulated problems that exist, the symptoms that people 724 00:46:47,480 --> 00:46:52,400 are concerned about this, this has resulted from, you know, 40 725 00:46:52,400 --> 00:46:55,400 to 50 years. You don't, you don't fix that in 726 00:46:55,400 --> 00:46:57,320 four to five days. You don't even fix that in four 727 00:46:57,320 --> 00:47:01,200 years. And you certainly don't fix it 728 00:47:01,200 --> 00:47:07,120 by, in a sense, creating fights for yourself all around the 729 00:47:07,120 --> 00:47:08,960 world, right? That actually doesn't fix your 730 00:47:08,960 --> 00:47:12,320 problems. It might create some nice optics 731 00:47:12,320 --> 00:47:16,160 politically. It in some respects mobilizes 732 00:47:16,160 --> 00:47:20,120 this idea of a politics of nostalgia, right, as well as the 733 00:47:20,120 --> 00:47:25,360 politics of cultural grievance. And, you know, it's either 734 00:47:25,360 --> 00:47:28,760 equity this or it's woke that or what, what have you. 735 00:47:29,160 --> 00:47:31,160 But it doesn't go to the heart of the problem, which is why 736 00:47:31,160 --> 00:47:35,840 does finance capital have limited relative interest in 737 00:47:36,800 --> 00:47:40,840 fixed capital formation and high end manufacturing and high end 738 00:47:40,840 --> 00:47:46,920 industry as opposed to hiring financial engineers on Wall 739 00:47:46,920 --> 00:47:49,640 Street, right? Unless you tackle that, how are 740 00:47:49,640 --> 00:47:54,160 you going to fix this? You know, Besson talks about 741 00:47:54,160 --> 00:47:56,640 Wall Street and Main Street rising together. 742 00:47:57,040 --> 00:47:59,760 The reason why Main Street's in the hole that it's in is because 743 00:47:59,760 --> 00:48:04,640 Wall Street has risen so much. You don't fix it by by thinking 744 00:48:04,640 --> 00:48:09,720 you can leave Wall Street alone. The heart of the heart of the 745 00:48:09,720 --> 00:48:12,200 American political economy today is that it's overly 746 00:48:12,200 --> 00:48:15,200 financialized. There's lots of vested interests 747 00:48:15,520 --> 00:48:18,320 attached to that. And now you've got the next 748 00:48:18,520 --> 00:48:21,680 batch of rent seekers, basically, and they are your, 749 00:48:21,680 --> 00:48:26,640 your technology oligarchs, right, who have very little 750 00:48:26,640 --> 00:48:31,040 interest in commodifying their platforms, but they have a lot 751 00:48:31,040 --> 00:48:33,520 of vested interest in building moats around them. 752 00:48:33,840 --> 00:48:36,240 And I'm unlocking people in at high prices. 753 00:48:37,600 --> 00:48:42,800 Well, Speaking of energy based, you know, there are countries 754 00:48:42,800 --> 00:48:47,440 like China, but also previously like Japan and South Korea that 755 00:48:47,440 --> 00:48:52,280 was energy poor, yet they were able to build a successful 756 00:48:52,280 --> 00:48:58,040 modern economy Despite that. I mean which like USI mean 757 00:48:58,040 --> 00:49:04,200 comparatively US is actually in a better problem in a better 758 00:49:05,320 --> 00:49:11,960 position resource wise than either Korea, Japan or until 759 00:49:11,960 --> 00:49:15,040 very recently China, right? I mean like like so. 760 00:49:15,040 --> 00:49:21,880 So it doesn't seem like the energy is is all determinative 761 00:49:22,640 --> 00:49:26,400 on how the the path of development of a of a state, 762 00:49:26,400 --> 00:49:30,760 right, Because, you know, it's our example of Japan, Korea, 763 00:49:31,120 --> 00:49:35,200 China, despite inner being energy poor and somehow was able 764 00:49:35,200 --> 00:49:38,080 to build a modern industrial economy. 765 00:49:39,080 --> 00:49:40,920 Well, it harnessed energy from elsewhere, right? 766 00:49:41,360 --> 00:49:45,120 So it solved it solved its energy, its, its local energy 767 00:49:45,200 --> 00:49:47,440 challenges. And of course, China's moving to 768 00:49:47,440 --> 00:49:50,240 a point where it is solving them in a sovereign way as well. 769 00:49:50,240 --> 00:49:53,320 So it's reducing the dependence on imported energy sources. 770 00:49:53,960 --> 00:49:57,560 And look, if anybody if, if if people were given their druthers 771 00:49:57,600 --> 00:50:00,720 and you, you know, you're playing the the world game and 772 00:50:00,720 --> 00:50:03,440 you said, look, you know, there's all these places that 773 00:50:03,440 --> 00:50:05,800 you could get. Where would? 774 00:50:05,800 --> 00:50:07,880 Where would you? Choose well, I'll tell you, 775 00:50:08,800 --> 00:50:10,960 North America would be one of those places that would be 776 00:50:10,960 --> 00:50:13,320 chosen, you know, one of the first few. 777 00:50:14,200 --> 00:50:24,520 What an amazing gift of nature. And and unsurprisingly, with 778 00:50:24,520 --> 00:50:28,000 those gifts of nature, the United States as a population 779 00:50:28,000 --> 00:50:31,880 grew. Obviously it as it moved W would 780 00:50:31,880 --> 00:50:34,600 have killed a whole bunch of well, you know, it actually 781 00:50:34,600 --> 00:50:37,240 engaged in what some historians have called the world's largest 782 00:50:37,240 --> 00:50:40,640 genocide in terms of the American Indians. 783 00:50:41,120 --> 00:50:45,680 But in so far as let's call it just economic wealth creation is 784 00:50:45,680 --> 00:50:47,840 concerned, put it put everything else aside. 785 00:50:48,560 --> 00:50:53,480 It's just one of the most amazing gifts of nature to to 786 00:50:53,680 --> 00:50:57,160 have the opportunity to do something with certainly 787 00:50:57,160 --> 00:50:59,880 compared to a bunch of other countries, You know, Japan's a 788 00:50:59,880 --> 00:51:02,360 great example. It's energy poor. 789 00:51:02,440 --> 00:51:08,080 It's it's food poor, it's topographically very difficult. 790 00:51:08,440 --> 00:51:15,680 It's on earthquake fault line. You know, it's, it's one of the 791 00:51:15,680 --> 00:51:18,280 last places you would choose if you wanted to have an easy 792 00:51:18,280 --> 00:51:22,760 pathway to, to, you know, improving material conditions. 793 00:51:22,960 --> 00:51:25,880 Yeah. Look, United States, look, I've 794 00:51:25,880 --> 00:51:28,400 been accused actually of being a little bit more optimistic about 795 00:51:28,400 --> 00:51:32,760 the US than some of my friends, which is a bit surprising to me 796 00:51:32,760 --> 00:51:35,720 because I've never really been particularly optimistic. 797 00:51:36,440 --> 00:51:39,880 But I just think that there are incredible raw materials. 798 00:51:40,080 --> 00:51:42,640 Look, you, you yourself studied there. 799 00:51:43,160 --> 00:51:48,200 You've spent time there. There is no doubt that it's a 800 00:51:48,200 --> 00:51:51,160 country of 350 million people or so. 801 00:51:52,560 --> 00:51:56,240 It's education systems are actually not, they're not in the 802 00:51:56,240 --> 00:51:58,120 bucket yet. They're not, You know, there are 803 00:51:58,120 --> 00:52:00,000 problems with literacy and numeracy. 804 00:52:00,480 --> 00:52:03,040 There are problems with the economics of education. 805 00:52:03,560 --> 00:52:05,560 But it's not like there aren't bright people. 806 00:52:05,720 --> 00:52:09,200 There's lots of bright people. There's lots of raw materials. 807 00:52:09,440 --> 00:52:11,360 There's lots of legacy infrastructure. 808 00:52:11,360 --> 00:52:14,520 Some of it desperately needs upgrading, whether it's rail 809 00:52:14,520 --> 00:52:18,520 lines or electricity systems or some of it's Rd. networks or 810 00:52:18,520 --> 00:52:20,640 some of it's ports for that matter, that look like ports 811 00:52:20,640 --> 00:52:25,040 from the 1970s. But, you know, compared to many 812 00:52:25,040 --> 00:52:27,480 other countries in the world, this is still amazing stuff. 813 00:52:28,680 --> 00:52:31,680 You know, a lot can be done. And I think the United States, 814 00:52:33,160 --> 00:52:37,680 once it can become a normal country and be less obsessed 815 00:52:37,680 --> 00:52:41,280 with being a global hegemon and less paranoid about the idea 816 00:52:41,280 --> 00:52:45,240 that everyone else wants to do harm to the to to the United 817 00:52:45,240 --> 00:52:47,520 States. If it can do all of those things 818 00:52:47,520 --> 00:52:50,920 and focus a lot more on distributional issues and 819 00:52:50,920 --> 00:52:54,560 institution building domestically, there's no reason 820 00:52:54,560 --> 00:53:00,640 why it can't actually have an incredibly prosperous future. 821 00:53:02,200 --> 00:53:06,720 I agree, unfortunately at the current, it's the current 822 00:53:06,720 --> 00:53:11,560 political landscape, I don't see, I don't see any kind of 823 00:53:11,560 --> 00:53:14,280 changes possible in the immediate future. 824 00:53:14,280 --> 00:53:19,160 Maybe, maybe in a generations time, maybe in 20 years, 30 825 00:53:19,160 --> 00:53:24,680 years, things might change, but I just don't see a path to 826 00:53:24,720 --> 00:53:28,200 improvement within next two to five years. 827 00:53:28,800 --> 00:53:35,040 Yeah, it's yeah, which is a. Portion economy with deep seated 828 00:53:35,040 --> 00:53:38,520 vested interests with a political system that is that is 829 00:53:38,520 --> 00:53:40,960 designed around the flow of money. 830 00:53:41,800 --> 00:53:45,320 You know, 2 year electoral cycles, lobbyists coming through 831 00:53:45,320 --> 00:53:51,640 the doors, revolving doors, the, the, the need for campaign 832 00:53:51,640 --> 00:53:54,120 finance to actually play the game. 833 00:53:54,760 --> 00:53:59,480 None of that is conducive to being able to tackle the issues, 834 00:53:59,480 --> 00:54:02,200 you know, in, in essence, in a dispassionate way. 835 00:54:02,840 --> 00:54:08,320 And that means that as times get more difficult, and I'm actually 836 00:54:08,320 --> 00:54:12,000 quite certain that they will, the anxiety levels and the 837 00:54:12,000 --> 00:54:16,560 public anger will rise and the short term political response 838 00:54:16,560 --> 00:54:19,120 will be to raise more and more money to run the campaigns. 839 00:54:19,760 --> 00:54:22,680 But the mandates are incredibly thin as a result. 840 00:54:22,680 --> 00:54:25,360 And there isn't a politician that then is able to do 841 00:54:25,360 --> 00:54:27,840 anything. You know, the, the electoral 842 00:54:27,840 --> 00:54:31,520 system in the United States is, was designed 250 years ago 843 00:54:32,960 --> 00:54:36,840 principally to favour small agrarian states, principally to 844 00:54:36,840 --> 00:54:40,320 ensure that systems were largely gridlocked so that they couldn't 845 00:54:40,320 --> 00:54:46,720 be radical change. And, and, and, and it also meant 846 00:54:46,720 --> 00:54:52,800 because of the college system that these days a president is 847 00:54:52,800 --> 00:54:57,520 elected with what is in effect about 30%, give or take of the 848 00:54:57,520 --> 00:55:01,160 eligible voter base. That's it, right? 849 00:55:01,160 --> 00:55:06,240 So that's a very, very thin mandate, if you can even call it 850 00:55:06,240 --> 00:55:08,360 that. They might get a massive 851 00:55:08,360 --> 00:55:10,440 winner's bonus at the college right? 852 00:55:10,440 --> 00:55:11,920 Which makes it look like they've. 853 00:55:11,920 --> 00:55:15,000 Romped it in. But when you actually look at 854 00:55:15,000 --> 00:55:19,440 the votes across the country, you realize that a whole bunch 855 00:55:19,440 --> 00:55:21,040 of folk didn't bother voting at all. 856 00:55:21,640 --> 00:55:25,000 A whole bunch of voters didn't vote for the whoever became 857 00:55:25,000 --> 00:55:26,680 president. And then you've got the rest. 858 00:55:26,960 --> 00:55:32,120 And it literally is about, you know, a third that's not really 859 00:55:32,120 --> 00:55:35,480 a base to do much with. And I think institutionally, the 860 00:55:35,480 --> 00:55:40,280 United States is, you know, trapped again, You know, like we 861 00:55:40,280 --> 00:55:44,640 were talking about with Japan, it's sort of tracked by its own 862 00:55:44,640 --> 00:55:48,680 historical legacy. In ways that prohibits it from 863 00:55:48,720 --> 00:55:51,200 tackling the problems of the 21st century. 864 00:55:53,080 --> 00:55:53,840 Wow. OK. 865 00:55:53,880 --> 00:55:59,360 I think that with that, we can wrap it up For people who would 866 00:55:59,360 --> 00:56:03,280 like to follow you, Professor or Powell, where would they go? 867 00:56:03,920 --> 00:56:09,080 If if if they're so inclined, go to Substack is probably the the 868 00:56:09,080 --> 00:56:11,480 quickest and easiest 1. So that's my name. 869 00:56:12,440 --> 00:56:14,400 Just look for me on sub stack, I think it's Warwick 870 00:56:14,400 --> 00:56:16,920 power.substack.com or something like that. 871 00:56:18,240 --> 00:56:19,560 And there's plenty of stuff there. 872 00:56:20,320 --> 00:56:25,160 It's, it's all free of charge though. 873 00:56:25,160 --> 00:56:28,240 I have been again, flattered by a bunch of people who've pledged 874 00:56:28,560 --> 00:56:30,400 and I'm not really sure what to do about any of that at the 875 00:56:30,400 --> 00:56:33,280 moment. Because I think information is 876 00:56:33,280 --> 00:56:38,400 something that wherever possible, you know, I should at 877 00:56:38,400 --> 00:56:41,320 least share it even if people think I'm mad or don't agree 878 00:56:41,320 --> 00:56:45,160 with it, but at least it provokes conversations and, and 879 00:56:45,160 --> 00:56:47,840 provokes thought processes and conversations like this. 880 00:56:47,840 --> 00:56:52,080 So, so for the foreseeable future, it'll just be there for 881 00:56:52,080 --> 00:56:55,760 those who are inclined to, you know, maybe spend, you know, 15 882 00:56:55,760 --> 00:56:59,360 to 25 minutes reading the materials when I push them out. 883 00:56:59,360 --> 00:57:00,760 I tried to do something once a week. 884 00:57:01,160 --> 00:57:05,720 Lately I've published 2 things a week, but it's largely been a 885 00:57:05,720 --> 00:57:10,320 response to immediate events which I don't want people 886 00:57:10,320 --> 00:57:11,960 thinking that that's going to be the norm. 887 00:57:13,440 --> 00:57:18,040 Well, for people who want to follow Professor Powell, go to 888 00:57:18,040 --> 00:57:23,640 warwickpowell.substack.com and highly recommend, give him a 889 00:57:23,640 --> 00:57:27,240 follow. Thank you again for making your 890 00:57:27,240 --> 00:57:30,640 time and energy to come to our our podcast. 891 00:57:31,000 --> 00:57:35,680 And this is I think we are, we are in a fast changing world. 892 00:57:35,680 --> 00:57:40,960 And I do look forward to have you again on my show to speak to 893 00:57:40,960 --> 00:57:46,760 us on on any upcoming events because many, many things have 894 00:57:46,760 --> 00:57:49,480 to do your with your field of study actually. 895 00:57:50,080 --> 00:57:52,560 And so this is very fascinating topic. 896 00:57:52,560 --> 00:57:54,520 I could geek out on this for hours. 897 00:57:54,840 --> 00:57:57,880 And I I look forward to our future conversations. 898 00:57:58,440 --> 00:58:01,360 Me too. Well, thanks guys. 899 00:58:01,360 --> 00:58:04,000 And thanks for listening to another episode of Silk and 900 00:58:04,000 --> 00:58:06,280 steel podcast. Until next time, Bye bye.