Hello and welcome to another episode of the Silk and Steel
Podcast. I am your host Carl Zah.
Today I'm joined by Arnold Bertrand, a French entrepreneur
and long term resident of China and the prolific commentator on
Twitter. Arnold, I invited you today.
But first of all, welcome to to the show again.
And I welcome you to the show today to to talk about
specifically the Macron visit to China.
What has it accomplished and why is he even there?
Maybe we can just go from there, Arnold.
Sure. I mean, to be honest, it's a bit
strange because I mean there were some stated purposes for
his visit from from the French side.
So one of them was to speak about the, the trade imbalance
between China and, and France and, and Europe.
Another one was the the usual, you know, rhetoric on the
Ukraine war where they want China to, to help.
Even though, you know, at this stage, I don't think even Macron
believes that, that it is realistic, but at least that's
what they're telling the the French public.
And he also came with a very large French delegation of I
think something like 40 CEOs. So clearly another purpose of
the visit was was business simply to, you know, sign
contracts on the on so on and so forth.
And All in all, I guess last purpose of the visit was to, you
know, sort of position France as an interlocutor of of China,
which has to be fair, historically been been the world
of France because we were the first country in the West to
establish diplomatic relations with with China in the 1960s.
Nineteen 64 exactly if I remember correctly, with the
goal, which was almost 10 years before the Americans.
So there is this long tradition. France, as you know, I would say
you could call it a special relationship normally with with
China. So it was in in that tradition.
And in fact, you know, Macron was was shown a lot of respect
by China during his visit because she personally
accompanied him to Cituan. They visited Chengdu and Du
Jiangyang together, which is extremely rare that she goes
outside Beijing on some sort of a touristic visit with with a
foreign leader, especially a Western leader.
I checked, I think that no Chinese leader has ever done
that with any American president, for instance.
So it was a big mark of, of respect.
So actually in that regard, the visits from both sides went
pretty well. But as soon as Macron set foot
back in France, and this is a typical Macron move,
unfortunately, he started to threaten China by saying that
Europe would apply similar style tariffs on China than, you know,
Trump did this year, even though the Trump tariffs, of course,
came down. So, yeah, it's a bit bizarre.
What I wrote on Twitter is that it's it's it's like the complete
reverse of what you normally do. Normally you state your
grievances ahead of a visit and then you work things out during
the visit to at the end announce, you know, something
like, you know, all is good in the relationship, everything is
restored and so on. Macron goes to China, have a
nice visit and so on. On his way back, he's he, he, he
starts negotiating, which is, which is a bit strange and very
counterproductive, of course, because from China's standpoint,
I guess it's seen as, you know, we brought out the red carpet
for you. And then the first thing you do
when you go back to France is, you know, spit on us.
So that's not, that's not very proper, right?
So, yeah, that's, it's a bit depressing, but that, that's my
call for you. He he already did something a
bit similar to that the last time he came to China.
So yeah, it's, it's it's also why I found it a bit strange
that he's shown so much respect by the Chinese side, because
that was to be expected. So I, I don't know, can what's
going on exactly here. There is something I don't
understand. Well, I, I noted that on Twitter
that Macron seems to be way more popular in China than he he is
in his home country of France. You know, you know, you have all
these fans chasing him down in China.
You, you don't, you don't see that in France.
But yeah, I this is exactly what I was thinking.
I, I was recalling his last visit, which has always been
very also been very possibly received inside China.
There was a lot wall to wall coverage.
He was showing a lot of goodwill and he was actually talking the
talk. He the last visit he was talking
about Europe need to strike out with its strategic autonomy,
pilot an independent chart away, you know, not just blindly
follow America, which he got a lot of Flack for in the European
press. But then when he went back home,
I mean, it all that talk didn't really translate into action or
he was still pretty much following US lead on China.
Now for his latest kind of tirade against China, who do you
think his audience is? You know, who is he speaking to
on this, You know, raising terror on China?
So a quite common theory in Europe and in France is that so
Macron is at the end of his political career in France.
Clearly, in fact, in many ways he's not in power anymore
because he's kind of a lame duck president, right?
He doesn't even have control over over the government
anymore. So he's just, you know,
representative role. And he has like 2 years left on
his on his mandate even a bit less and he will be gone.
And so a common theory is that he's aiming for a top EU role as
the next step in his career, maybe something like van der
Leyen's position. And that's therefore his
rhetoric. Because if you if you look at
his rhetoric, he's not speaking on behalf of France, he's
speaking on behalf of Europe. So he's saying Europe will put
in place those, those tariffs. Well, actually it doesn't have
the power to say that because at at this stage, you know, he, he
can only speak for France, right?
He can't speak for Europe. And I'm pretty sure that other
European countries such as Germany, for instance, will find
issue with what Michael is saying because, you know, even
though they export less and less to China, it's still a very
important trade partner for for them.
So my guess is that he's starting to position himself as
kind of the tough guy for Europe, defending Europe's
interests on, on, so on and so forth.
But my take is that by doing what he just did, he antagonises
China, of course, and he antagonises other European
countries while I wait you, you, you're not speaking for us.
Like at least, I don't know, a concert with us before, you
know, starting a trade war with with China, maybe.
So, yeah, it's it's, it's it's not exactly logical from a
political standpoint, but yeah. And, and it's it's fairly this
sort of attitude is fairly typical of of Macron where he's
famous in France for what we call Omenton, which means at the
same time or in the meanwhile, where basically we he he will
try to cater to every audience at the so it it doesn't have a
backbone basically. So where is is going to you can
find declaration of him, which are like borderline Marxists
like to attract the extreme left and then borderline fascists to
extract the extreme right. And and that's a bit the same
thing he did there. If you listen, you know, in in
China, I spoke to students at university and I listened to him
and I was like, wow, I agree with every word of what he's
saying. Like we the world should be
together. We shouldn't, you know, I have
divisive rhetoric concerned like, wow, yeah, sure.
Of course that's that's great. And then the first thing just
when it comes back to France is like, you know, I've extremely
divisive rhetoric, which, which is all about threatening China
and, you know, almost Trumpian like rhetoric.
So yeah, it's it's that's my crown for you.
Yeah, I mean, I, I guess I understand why he's always given
a such grand reception in China because from Chinese
perspective, you know, China, remember France as Charles de
Gaulle's France, you know, when de Gaulle actually pilot a
independent policy, you know, including quitting NATO,
recognizing China. And I, I guess the hope is that
Macron maybe at least could pick up some crown of the GAO or, or,
or picking up some mantle, but that, that's obviously misplaced
because, you know, Macron, as you say, he knows how to talk to
the talk to the right audience. You know, he switch, he geared
to her, his, his, his audience. But the, but the problem is
today we live in such an interconnected world.
It's not like what you say in Europe will not be heard back in
China. I mean, like people, we'll just
think, OK, you, you this guy is not serious.
Yes, you can't you can't trust him at his words.
Does so. So I mean, but did his so is his
trip just mostly for commercial purposes and did did that did he
accomplish his goal just, you know, a signed contract for the
French companies in China? Not obvious.
There were talks of China being a lot of Airbus planes, for
instance, but apparently they didn't concretize.
So, you know, they, both sides said that they, they signed like
12, you know, understandings around certain topics and so on.
But this is kind of lukewarm stuff.
I, I don't think there were any like big orders of, for, for,
for French companies, at least I haven't seen any, any public
announcements around that. So I think that's, that was
pretty disappointing from, from a French business standpoint.
Of course, I have no idea why that is the case.
You know, some theories on regarding the Airbus planes is
that China wants to retain also leverage with Trump because
orders of planes is always, you know, big leverage.
And so, you know, they can always say tell Trump if you
play nice with us, we can buy Boeing planes, for instance.
So, you know, I'm, I'm sure there are those types of of
consideration or maybe also, you know, future leverage with, with
Europe as well. Maybe they don't want to play
the Airbus card right now and reserve that order for, for the
future. So, yeah, but yeah, only know
the trip seems to have been relatively unproductive at at
most levels. Like the joke in, in, in, in
French media is that the only thing it got was a panda because
there was a, a, a promise of, you know, replacement panda
being sent to a, to a zoo in France because two pandas were
sent back to China because they were old on the bit sick.
So that was agreed upon. But it's it's pretty much the
only very concrete thing that's that came out of the trip then.
Why? The question is why is he doing
this trip during the last leg of his presidency when he is in
fact the lame duck president? It's just for his legacy, you
know, like why? What's the point?
Yeah, it's, I mean, I, I, I think he's, he's relatively
diplomatically incompetent to be an ass because China is
obviously very important to, to France and to Europe.
And we do have subjects with China.
I mean, you know, we this trade rebalancing thing from Europe
standpoint is an issue. We have a growing issue.
But uncompetitiveness in in Europe where you know what
French media are saying these days is that we are the emerging
countries and China is the developed country.
And now we need to inverse things where we're the ones in
need of of technology transfers from from China.
And then, of course, you know, China could also help, you know,
in, in terms of leverage vis a vis the USI think this would be
a smart geopolitical positioning for Europe where you're kind of
the pivot in the middle, right, Where you, you we would have our
own China cards that we can have with respect to, to Trump.
So when Trump pushes too much, we can tell him, you know, we
have the Chinese on the other side who offer much better deals
on the on, you know, so you could do something interesting
in in, in many respects. But the way this played out it,
it looks like Micron came with a pretty arrogant attitude, pretty
unrealistic objectives that weren't achieved and nothing was
achieved. And it comes back and it starts
threatening China, which undermines this whole trip.
I mean, then it's a waste of time, I think.
And I generally think it it could have been productive
because China really, you know, now granted him a lot of
respect, showed that the door was open and so on.
So let's capitalize on, on, on that.
You know, we have this Goodwin on the Chinese side.
Why not capitalize on it instead of, you know, closing the door
shut? So yeah, it's, it's just, it's
sad, to be honest. What does France hope to get
from its interaction with China? I mean, what, what, what are the
French national interests involved when it comes to China?
What kind of relationship does France or the French Lee hope to
have with China at this point? I, I think there are two things
that are the objectives interest on there is the delusions of,
of, of the current French leadership.
So let's look at the delusions first of all, where they want to
rebalance trade with China, where basically their ideal
scenario is they sell as much to China as China sells to them.
But for that, obviously you need to have things to sell to China
that China is interested in buying, right, Obviously.
And, and, and that's the issue. The issue is in Europe right
now, and particularly in France, we've become quite uncompetitive
in, in many industries to the extent that, you know, the
Chinese are like, why would we buy your stuff when the stuff
that we make at home are, you know, much better quality.
So cars are a great example of that.
There was a moment where, you know, French cars were fairly
popular in China. They were mostly located in
Wuhan. Wuhan was actually the French
car city in China. That's why to this day there is
a French school in Wuhan because there were so many French car
executives living there. But, you know, drive around in
China these days and it's, it's almost impossible to see a
single French car simply because they're not attractive to
Chinese customers, right? So they have their own cars.
German cars are still to some extent competitive, even though
that's on the way down. Tesla is still to some extent
competitive, also on the way down.
But French cars, you know, pretty much gone and, you know,
otherwise we have, you know, the typical French stuff like
fashion or cosmetics or, you know, alcohol, wine and so on.
But that also is on the way down.
So, you know, just looking at wine, for instance, I just
recently saw that one of the foremost French critics of wine,
actually I did a tour of China, of Chinese vineyards and he was
astonished to see that the quality, as he said, on average
was better than in France. So he didn't say that the best
Chinese wine were better than the best French wine.
So I think, I think if you look at the, you know, the top
Bordeaux Grand Prix and Sun were still above China.
He just spoke about the the average standard that he thought
was was better at this stage in China.
So you can see a trajectory. Where bit by bit the Chinese are
going to be like, why would we import very expensive French
wine when we actually have three decent wine in China?
And same thing for fashion. You're starting to see, you
know, luxury fashion brands in China appear on on.
So bit by bit you're starting to see a pattern where the Chinese
are like, you know, we, we need less and less stuff for, from
France. And so the solution from the
French side is not to, to, to be kind of dictatorial, but that's
on say, no, we, we want you to buy your stuff even though you
don't want to. That was the time of the 19th
century. That was the problem with the
the IT was the exact same issue with the Opium War.
That's why the opium war happened because there was a
huge trade imbalance. China was selling much more
stuff to Britain that Britain was was selling to China.
And so they forced the Chinese to buy opium as as a as a
result. But they could do that at the
time because their military superiority, right?
So there were the Opium wars on the one on, on the forced opium
done China's fraud. That's not possible that that,
you know, China is too powerful. The French army I, I, I saw the
other day in one day the Chinese Navy in terms of tonnage
launched in a single day as many military ships than the entire
French Navy in one day. So, you know, that's, that's the
situation right now. So the solution is therefore to
make an effort on our side to gaining competitiveness on
trying to find a way to develop products that's that's that are
interesting to the to the change market or to become extremely
protectionist on our side to dramatically reduce the amount
of of Chinese imports. But that's shooting ourselves in
the foot because then it makes our companies even less
competitive when you're it's the, the India story, when when
you completely close, it's yourself down to, to the
exterior world. Sure, you protect your company.
Sure you the, the, the, the, the trade is balanced somehow.
But then because there is no competition, because your
companies are so insulated from competition, then they're
completely uncompetitive on, on the global level on on.
So we probably don't want that. So that's the reality.
So that's the first thing. The second thing is there is
expectations on the Ukraine war. So the expectation is that
somehow China will side, will side with Europe against Russia.
But that is also very unrealistic.
Like, why would China go effectively declare war on its
biggest neighbor, by the way, the one it has been warring with
for millennia? You know, that's why they build
the great world, right to. So why would they, you know,
start again, this sort of pattern with a great being
aggressive to their northern neighbor just to please
Europeans that that's just delusional.
They will they will never do that.
So there is this expectation from from Europe, but it it
won't happen. What China can do and what it
proposed to do, because the, the proposed peace plan in in 2023
was to play the role of moderator where they, they tell
the European side, you know, Russia's position, that the
Russia side, Euro's position, they try to find a genuinely
mutually agreeable compromise. But at this stage, Europe
doesn't want to compromise that that is the key characteristic
of of Europe right now. They're just, you know, very set
in their in, in, in their ideology on the very unrealistic
because they want to defeat Russia, which is just not
possible at this stage. So there is a big gap over
between what Europe wants from China on what can be
realistically achieved. So the solution is more changing
our mindset in Europe to be much more realistic because we can't
get things from China. But if we understand China and
if we're realistic about it, if if we keep asking for things
that are just way out there and, and just not possible, of
course, we will never get anything.
And the only thing we will achieve is an antagonistic
relationship which serves no one.
Yeah, One thing I remember you tweeting about the the French
report, how now we are the, now the table has flipped, we are
the emerging economy. We're expecting to get
technological transfer from China.
So dude, was was the expectation that, you know, Macron's visit
will facilitate some more Chinese investment into France,
you know, that that would tie with the Chinese technological
transfer, Was that also expectation?
Yeah. There is an expectation.
And I think to be honest, from China's side, that could be
something that they can, you know, that they could consider
because, you know, this is this is fair.
I will say because China did that a lot to to the West as
well in, in a, in a mutually agreeable way, not not as a
diktats basically company by company, OK, you want access to
our markets, but we need help developing for this or, or that
technology. So let's find a win win here.
So you could very much imagine, you know, something similar
where, you know, let's say Huawei is allowed to sell its
its phones or something to to the European market.
But you know, they help Europe in in some ways, you know,
commit to taking some suppliers for Europe or opening a factory
in Europe or, you know, something like that.
But I think the issue is that Europe wants to do it the in,
in, in a diktat way where they want to set to you some rules at
the European levels saying no, China needs to give us their
technology, they want access to the European market and so on.
In in a confrontational way on the on that sort of approach
never really works with China. It's, it's, it's very much
against the culture, which is all about mutual respect.
So I think there needs to be again, a mindset shift in Europe
where they need to understand the way China works, where you
can, you can actually get things from China.
The, the Chinese are, you know, businessmen, negotiators.
They're they're very pragmatic as soon as you treat with them
as equals and with respect. I think that's the basic thing
that's that needs to be understood on which very much
isn't the case still in France. I mean, when you listen to
people in France, the French media and so on, it's we're,
we're still, you know, you can still hear almost like 19th
century rhetoric on, on China where, you know, we still view
them as, as almost like, you know, uncivilized tribe that
needs Western enlightenment and so on.
Like it's, it's insane. It's insane.
How, how, how we are like, let me give you an example.
Recently there was a French MP. The only thing he tweeted was
Taiwan is Chinese, which is true if you look at it under any
angle, like politically is true, you know, even from the
Taiwanese angle because it's independence.
So, you know, even in that constitution, it's true that
Taiwan is Chinese is true from a cultural standpoint, Taiwan is
Chinese because it's mostly Han Chinese living there.
They speak, you know, Chinese and so on and so forth.
So there is no controversy at all with that statement.
Taiwan is Chinese. But that created a huge outcry
in France. And you had like all French
media saying like this is like, you know, CCP propaganda on the
Taiwan, Taiwan is a is a sovereign country, you know,
like complete historical revisionism.
So that's that's France right now still in that, you know,
express And of course, that is not conducive to understanding
China and treating them with respect.
And therefore, you know, getting some actual concrete things done
with China. We're shooting ourselves in the
foot, I think. I mean, it is power is very
baffling from the Chinese perspective because it's like,
what what does France have to do with Taiwan?
Does Europe have to do with Taiwan?
This is like, you know, Europe is not even a major colonial
power that's deeply involved in the region anymore.
Why? Why do you care?
And, and also that's actually, it is official position of all
the major countries around the world to recognize that, you
know, 1 China principle that, that, that Taiwan is part of
China and the only Rep legal representative of China is the
government in Beijing. So, you know, it's, it's kind of
baffling why there would even be a, a, a media storm over a
statement like this. Like what does, what does, you
know, Taiwan issue have to do with France?
What does it have to do with Europe?
Yeah, it's crazy. And the most buffering thing is
that it's getting worse. Like if you reread what was
written about Taiwan under the Gulf for instance, it was
actually much more reasonable even though at the time we were
during the Cold War so you would think that the anti communism
would be much more virulent. And even though at the time
France was way more powerful than it is today.
So if there had been a Taiwan war or Taiwan issue, we could
actually have done something about it.
But no, we were, you know, way more reasonable.
Like I was reading the book of the goes right hand man at the
time, a guy called Alan Perfitt and he was describing Taiwan as
China's Alsace Lauren. You know, in France, we had we
had an issue where we had lost Alsace Lauren to the to the
Germans on the on during, you know, decades.
The battle cry in France was we need to get back Alsace Lauren,
which we did in the First World War.
And it's true to some, to some degree.
It is China's as as Lauren. I mean, it matters as much to
China as it did as as Lauren did to us.
So, so there was some pragmatism, some understanding
that is largely gone at least from the from the mainstream.
Right now the mainstream is basically completely aligned on
Taiwan, align very much with that, you know, liberal
internationalists, you know, we need to kind of end of history
Fukuyama pipeline, which is somewhat bizarre because that
line is disappearing from everywhere.
The the US is moving out of it as as is obvious from their
latest national security strategy.
So Europe is less powerful, is the less bastion of this type of
supremacist Western thinking, which it cannot act upon because
it's not powerful at all anymore.
So yeah, it is. It's just pure ideology.
It's just bizarre. How how how did that happen
though? How did, how did kind of the
France, how did the kind of the neoliberal internationalist or
some people say globalist ideology take over France?
You know how? Because that was obviously not
the case back in 1960s. Yeah, so I, I think during the
Cold War, after the goal on the all all the way until the, the
Cold War, there was a pretty vivid intellectual ferment in in
France where, you know, a lot of French intellectuals were
communists, even Maoists. There were an enormous amount
of, of Maoists in, in, in France.
Some of the biggest French philosophers were very devoted
Maoists on the, on some very famous film makers as well.
Like, you know, when, when my dad was young, you could see
some movies in the, in the cinema in France praising the
Cultural Revolution on the Red Guards.
Like that was France at the time.
It's crazy to think right now, but, you know, France was very
much like that. But then the end of the Cold War
came on, on the, you know, there was sort of this triumph of of
the the the liberal internationalist slash globalist
line. And all those intellectuals sort
of, you know, did their Mia culpa saying, yeah, we were, we
were stupid on the sorry and on. So very few stayed on the Maoist
line, but few did, but very, very few.
And that's been the case since then basically that there was a
shift then maybe helps by the US, which is, you know, very
strong influence networks in in France on the, you know, a lot
of top French leaders were invited to the US on the, you
know, even maybe paid sometimes on some sort of scholarships and
so on. So anyway, there there was an
eradication of this alternative thinking in France basically, at
least in in the mainstream. And we're still on that plane.
And you know, what you need to understand about European
thinking is that it's actually quite ideology is very strong.
You know, you can remember during the middle age we used to
burn people at the stake if they were thinking wrongly, right?
It's in Europe that there was the Inquisition.
So anyone that was considered heretical, like, you know,
thinking wrong, we would literally burn them.
So that's we come from from that sort of tradition.
If you deviate from the mainstream thinking, it's, it's
actually very violent the the ecosystem, the atmosphere in
France. So like that guy that MPI was
speaking about earlier who tweeted just Taiwan is Chinese.
The reaction from the media is, is extraordinarily violent.
Like there was no one defending him except maybe people from his
French political group. Still, I'm, I'm not even sure,
but that's like it's, it's social death for the guy.
And so it's a very heavy intellectual atmosphere where
maybe some people want to express other thoughts, but they
know that if they if they do so, then it's it's social death.
So yeah, that that's the environment.
Speaking of ideological struggle, another thing I fail
to understand is the the the Ukraine issue.
I mean, Uus for the longest time Europe has been following
Washington's lead on the whole Ukraine crisis.
Now Washington wants to wash his hands of of the Ukraine want to
have a speech, a settlement with Russia.
Why I failed on From my perspective, I'm baffled why
Europe didn't just simply go along with that.
And why are they are, are they sick?
They, they saying they're going to pick up the slag.
If, if, if Washington refused to support Ukraine, they will do it
themselves. Like, but why that was, that was
like in a Washington LED project from the beginning.
Why, why these kind of attachment to that whole
project? I I I failed to understand
because wouldn't making peace be better for everyone, especially
for people in Europe? Yeah, I mean it is a bit
baffling. I agree with you.
So on, on it's it's hard to explain exactly why.
So one line of thinking is that it's actually a way to
manufacture consents for independence military in Europe.
So, you know, showing the European population there is war
in Europe, Ukraine is in Europe, we have an enemy which is
Russia. Hence the need to increase our,
our military budget on, you know, as a result, you know,
cuts your pensions, cuts social expenses and so on and so forth.
You need that sort of of justification.
Another line of, of thinking is, is, is that, you know, quite few
things keep the European projects alive, like can act as
a as some sort of, you know, federating idea on having an
enemy. Having a war is always a very
useful thing to kind of unite different peoples around
something common. Like the US has used that a lot,
right? Where they're not united,
they're actually very divided the United States, but you know,
so fun. They've used walls as as a way
to ready their population around, around the common goal.
So I think that the EU plays a lot on that using Ukraine, the
the boogeyman of of Russia as some sort of of writing cry,
right? Yeah, those are, if I want to be
generous, those are the two explanations, most likely
explanations that that I can see.
And then maybe it's simply that Europe, you know, often
functions at the lowest common denominator.
You need to put 27 people in agreement on something, which is
not easy because those are quite different nations like the
Baltics, which are extremely, extremely hostile to Russia,
right? In fact, the whole of most of
Houston Europe is. And then you have some countries
which are, you know, more more favorable, like like Hungary and
so on. And each has a vice, each has a
vote, equal vote. And, and, and when you have such
disagreement, often the best course of action is simply
nothing like you just stay the course.
There is paradises. You just, you know, keep doing
the same thing over and over again.
And in the absence of a very charismatic leader who can
propose a alternative vision on someone who is ready to, you
know, change course completely on, you know, maybe Trump, Trump
on say, you know, we are going to be the ones to negotiate
with, with Russia. I will speak with with Putin.
We will propose our own deal. And we won't let Trump do that.
Like that takes an enormous amount of political courage.
Like who in Europe could do that today?
You just don't have any vandalism if unless yeah, there
is like Macron doesn't have any, any credibility because he's
absolutely hated by by Russia. So yeah, it's, it's also an
absence of, you know, charismatic, visionary popular
leaders who can propose a positive vision.
What, what is, what is the future of European project at
this point? I mean, I, I just Speaking of
Europe and you mentioned there's many differences among its
member nations. I remember the Nesperia case.
The Dutch economic minister was brought before EU to ask about
why he did not inform EU or China about his decision to
seize Nesperia from the Chinese parent company Wintech.
And he said, oh, this because the less people know about it,
the better. That's we don't have time to
inform everybody including EU because you know, then then the
Chinese might have the time to act, which is which make me
question, so who is setting the policy here?
If I like an individual economic minister of Netherland, in this
case, he apparently his action actually impacted all of you as
a whole, because, you know, he created the whole semiconductor
supply chain crisis by the seizing of Nesperia that
impacted the German and the French automakers.
Yet he he decided, OK, I I don't need to apparently I don't need
to consult with anybody, including the EU politicians.
I can just go ahead and make this decision on my own.
And and which he stood by and he said he would do it again, you
know, even even know what had happened.
What is what is your I want your take on like the future of the
EU project? Yeah, I mean, I'm basically it's
it's it's very clear that things don't work today.
Right on, on the Nixterior case is a great example because it
shows there is no strategy, there is no coordination, it's
just a mess. What I always say when it comes
to Europe is there is either too much Europe or not enough.
But but the, the amount right now is, is is not OK.
So either Europe becomes, you know, almost like a federation,
like an actual state with, you know, the power of a state
coordination. It can really impose things on
its members. And it is coherent on the, you
don't have this mess where all 27 need to agree on, on
everything, which leads to paralysis and so on, where, you
know, that would enable some sort of coherence strategy to
emerge from, from this whole thing.
Because you have, you know, federal government deciding on
the top, on the, you know, this is our way.
This is the European way. We, we, we go for it or you have
less Europe where, you know, you give back some of the
sovereignty that was taken away from European nations to them.
And then, you know, it's really countries which, which are,
which are in charge. So this is, you know, nations
with their their sovereignty being able to to decide most
things. But the current sort of mix of
both is, is clearly very messy and and doesn't work.
So, you know, like it's the the famous Kissinger sentence
Europe. Who do I call?
There is no one you call. It's it's just, it's just a
mess. You don't know who who to speak
with, who speaks for Europe. Like Michael yesterday on on his
way back from from from China, he was behaving as if he was
picking for Europe, but he doesn't.
Van der Leyen often acts as if she speaks for Europe, but she
doesn't, she doesn't have any power to speak for Europe,
especially on foreign affairs. You know, it's, it's just weird
on, on you arrive at the stage where it's just weak on the
without, without advice on the reduced to, you know, having to
look, you know, pathetic as it as it does today.
So, yeah, I think it's either or either you you really build a
concrete European project, which is, you know, actually a
country, a federation and so on, or you're like, OK, we, we went
too far with Europe. Let's give back their advice to
to European nations on on some of their power.
So do do you think there's any hope for either the European
elite or the French elite in particular to have adopt A more
realistic approach in dealing with China?
Because right now, as you mentioned earlier, the their
expectations in their dealing with China totally does not,
does not match reality on the ground.
What, what what would it take in your opinion, would make them to
come, to come to a grip with a reality?
So first of all, I think that people in France actually are
more pragmatic than we sometimes assume.
But I think there is a lot of fear of speaking out as I was
speaking about the this sort of intellectual heaviness on, on
the social consequences if you speak out.
But when you speak with the average person, they're actually
quite, I mean, not always of course, but they remain fairly
pragmatic. So let me just give you an
example. I just wrote a book on China, on
democracy in China, on the ID for the book didn't come from
me. It came from a friend of mine
who is educated in the best cruise in France and he's a
partner of Mackenzie in France, and he's never been to China.
But on his own, independently, always being in France, he came
to the conclusion that, you know, China was a democracy and
maybe even more democratic than France on that case, very
educated, best cruise in France, you know, top job McKinsey and
Swan. So it shows that it's possible
those people exist, right? So it's about changing, changing
sort of the I don't think it will take much.
The DNA is there. Some of the right ideas are in
people's mind. It's, it's about lifting the,
the, the heaviness that's, that's in the, in the mainstream
on, on sort of liberating people to, you know, be more pragmatic
on ridiculing the, the ideology which so many people can see is,
is ridiculed anyway. But it's just, it's taken
seriously right now. And so no one can say it's
ridiculous. But if, if people started to say
so, then I think things could change quite, quite fast.
Maybe I'm too optimistic, but I think so.
I, I, I like to leave on the optimistic note and that that it
does offer a glimmer of hope. What is there any other topic
that that you wish to discuss today that we have not covered
Arnold? No, I think, I mean, when when
it comes to macro and France, that's that's sort of, I guess
the other big thing these days is the national security
strategy of the US But you know, that would be another hour or so
to discuss it. It's a it's a big thing.
So yeah, maybe there you go. Next opportunity to come back on
your contest. Yeah, exactly.
Next episode next episode we're going to have Arnold Bertrand
back on my show so we can go over the latest published US
National Security papers because that's very interesting because
you kind of lay out this. There's a new strategic priority
of United States and, and it's kind of drastic departure.
As you pointed out in your tweet from the past, when you know US
and, and there's there's less ideological language, you know
talking about spreading democracy and and and and
values. It's very more realist take on
international relations and geopolitics.
And yeah, we, but unfortunately, where are the?
Interestingly, actually, yeah, yeah.
Just interestingly, the there is still some ideological language,
but not towards China or Russia anymore, but towards Europe.
So it's kind of shifted. That's quite that's quite funny.
Yeah, well, OK, that that is a whole episode by itself.
So, so so look forward to that. I'm going to have Arnold back to
discuss that because that is a very important topic.
And for people who want to follow you Are Arnold your work?
Where would they go? I mean on Twitter, on sub stack,
Arno Bertrand, just my name so it's easy.
OK. Well, thank you.
Thank you very much Arnold, for making the time to speak to us.
Thank you for. People for people are listening.
Thank you for tuning in. Until next time, bye bye.