1 00:00:01,440 --> 00:00:04,880 Hello and welcome to another episode of the Silk and Steel 2 00:00:04,880 --> 00:00:07,520 Podcast. I am your host Carl Zah. 3 00:00:08,039 --> 00:00:12,880 Today I'm joined by Arnold Bertrand, a French entrepreneur 4 00:00:12,880 --> 00:00:17,960 and long term resident of China and the prolific commentator on 5 00:00:17,960 --> 00:00:21,880 Twitter. Arnold, I invited you today. 6 00:00:21,880 --> 00:00:24,640 But first of all, welcome to to the show again. 7 00:00:25,080 --> 00:00:30,240 And I welcome you to the show today to to talk about 8 00:00:30,480 --> 00:00:34,360 specifically the Macron visit to China. 9 00:00:34,760 --> 00:00:40,080 What has it accomplished and why is he even there? 10 00:00:40,480 --> 00:00:42,600 Maybe we can just go from there, Arnold. 11 00:00:42,600 --> 00:00:46,040 Sure. I mean, to be honest, it's a bit 12 00:00:46,280 --> 00:00:52,720 strange because I mean there were some stated purposes for 13 00:00:52,720 --> 00:00:55,200 his visit from from the French side. 14 00:00:56,360 --> 00:01:02,840 So one of them was to speak about the, the trade imbalance 15 00:01:03,360 --> 00:01:07,520 between China and, and France and, and Europe. 16 00:01:08,800 --> 00:01:13,680 Another one was the the usual, you know, rhetoric on the 17 00:01:13,680 --> 00:01:18,000 Ukraine war where they want China to, to help. 18 00:01:18,680 --> 00:01:22,960 Even though, you know, at this stage, I don't think even Macron 19 00:01:23,440 --> 00:01:28,040 believes that, that it is realistic, but at least that's 20 00:01:28,040 --> 00:01:30,240 what they're telling the the French public. 21 00:01:31,960 --> 00:01:36,200 And he also came with a very large French delegation of I 22 00:01:36,200 --> 00:01:41,600 think something like 40 CEOs. So clearly another purpose of 23 00:01:41,600 --> 00:01:45,760 the visit was was business simply to, you know, sign 24 00:01:45,760 --> 00:01:48,120 contracts on the on so on and so forth. 25 00:01:49,800 --> 00:01:56,800 And All in all, I guess last purpose of the visit was to, you 26 00:01:56,800 --> 00:02:03,400 know, sort of position France as an interlocutor of of China, 27 00:02:04,160 --> 00:02:09,280 which has to be fair, historically been been the world 28 00:02:09,280 --> 00:02:14,120 of France because we were the first country in the West to 29 00:02:14,480 --> 00:02:20,600 establish diplomatic relations with with China in the 1960s. 30 00:02:20,640 --> 00:02:25,680 Nineteen 64 exactly if I remember correctly, with the 31 00:02:25,680 --> 00:02:29,960 goal, which was almost 10 years before the Americans. 32 00:02:30,280 --> 00:02:35,040 So there is this long tradition. France, as you know, I would say 33 00:02:35,160 --> 00:02:39,840 you could call it a special relationship normally with with 34 00:02:39,840 --> 00:02:42,760 China. So it was in in that tradition. 35 00:02:42,760 --> 00:02:48,480 And in fact, you know, Macron was was shown a lot of respect 36 00:02:48,880 --> 00:02:53,080 by China during his visit because she personally 37 00:02:53,560 --> 00:03:00,480 accompanied him to Cituan. They visited Chengdu and Du 38 00:03:00,480 --> 00:03:06,760 Jiangyang together, which is extremely rare that she goes 39 00:03:06,800 --> 00:03:11,440 outside Beijing on some sort of a touristic visit with with a 40 00:03:11,440 --> 00:03:14,080 foreign leader, especially a Western leader. 41 00:03:14,080 --> 00:03:17,400 I checked, I think that no Chinese leader has ever done 42 00:03:17,400 --> 00:03:19,960 that with any American president, for instance. 43 00:03:20,480 --> 00:03:23,360 So it was a big mark of, of respect. 44 00:03:24,520 --> 00:03:30,200 So actually in that regard, the visits from both sides went 45 00:03:30,200 --> 00:03:35,840 pretty well. But as soon as Macron set foot 46 00:03:35,840 --> 00:03:38,800 back in France, and this is a typical Macron move, 47 00:03:38,920 --> 00:03:47,120 unfortunately, he started to threaten China by saying that 48 00:03:47,680 --> 00:03:54,640 Europe would apply similar style tariffs on China than, you know, 49 00:03:54,640 --> 00:03:58,920 Trump did this year, even though the Trump tariffs, of course, 50 00:03:59,200 --> 00:04:04,160 came down. So, yeah, it's a bit bizarre. 51 00:04:04,720 --> 00:04:09,240 What I wrote on Twitter is that it's it's it's like the complete 52 00:04:09,400 --> 00:04:12,720 reverse of what you normally do. Normally you state your 53 00:04:13,080 --> 00:04:19,360 grievances ahead of a visit and then you work things out during 54 00:04:19,360 --> 00:04:22,520 the visit to at the end announce, you know, something 55 00:04:22,520 --> 00:04:25,440 like, you know, all is good in the relationship, everything is 56 00:04:25,440 --> 00:04:28,640 restored and so on. Macron goes to China, have a 57 00:04:28,640 --> 00:04:32,560 nice visit and so on. On his way back, he's he, he, he 58 00:04:32,560 --> 00:04:38,640 starts negotiating, which is, which is a bit strange and very 59 00:04:38,640 --> 00:04:43,480 counterproductive, of course, because from China's standpoint, 60 00:04:43,480 --> 00:04:46,440 I guess it's seen as, you know, we brought out the red carpet 61 00:04:46,760 --> 00:04:49,280 for you. And then the first thing you do 62 00:04:49,280 --> 00:04:53,240 when you go back to France is, you know, spit on us. 63 00:04:54,240 --> 00:04:57,320 So that's not, that's not very proper, right? 64 00:04:58,040 --> 00:05:02,880 So, yeah, that's, it's a bit depressing, but that, that's my 65 00:05:02,880 --> 00:05:06,120 call for you. He he already did something a 66 00:05:06,120 --> 00:05:10,800 bit similar to that the last time he came to China. 67 00:05:12,080 --> 00:05:16,920 So yeah, it's, it's it's also why I found it a bit strange 68 00:05:16,920 --> 00:05:21,480 that he's shown so much respect by the Chinese side, because 69 00:05:21,960 --> 00:05:26,880 that was to be expected. So I, I don't know, can what's 70 00:05:26,880 --> 00:05:29,640 going on exactly here. There is something I don't 71 00:05:29,640 --> 00:05:33,480 understand. Well, I, I noted that on Twitter 72 00:05:33,480 --> 00:05:38,360 that Macron seems to be way more popular in China than he he is 73 00:05:38,360 --> 00:05:41,960 in his home country of France. You know, you know, you have all 74 00:05:41,960 --> 00:05:45,080 these fans chasing him down in China. 75 00:05:45,080 --> 00:05:47,360 You, you don't, you don't see that in France. 76 00:05:47,960 --> 00:05:52,080 But yeah, I this is exactly what I was thinking. 77 00:05:52,080 --> 00:05:55,960 I, I was recalling his last visit, which has always been 78 00:05:55,960 --> 00:05:59,480 very also been very possibly received inside China. 79 00:05:59,480 --> 00:06:01,320 There was a lot wall to wall coverage. 80 00:06:02,040 --> 00:06:06,360 He was showing a lot of goodwill and he was actually talking the 81 00:06:06,360 --> 00:06:09,000 talk. He the last visit he was talking 82 00:06:09,000 --> 00:06:14,080 about Europe need to strike out with its strategic autonomy, 83 00:06:14,120 --> 00:06:19,680 pilot an independent chart away, you know, not just blindly 84 00:06:19,680 --> 00:06:23,880 follow America, which he got a lot of Flack for in the European 85 00:06:23,880 --> 00:06:27,520 press. But then when he went back home, 86 00:06:28,360 --> 00:06:31,960 I mean, it all that talk didn't really translate into action or 87 00:06:31,960 --> 00:06:36,360 he was still pretty much following US lead on China. 88 00:06:36,640 --> 00:06:41,520 Now for his latest kind of tirade against China, who do you 89 00:06:41,520 --> 00:06:44,480 think his audience is? You know, who is he speaking to 90 00:06:44,680 --> 00:06:47,440 on this, You know, raising terror on China? 91 00:06:47,440 --> 00:06:53,760 So a quite common theory in Europe and in France is that so 92 00:06:53,760 --> 00:06:56,520 Macron is at the end of his political career in France. 93 00:06:56,520 --> 00:07:00,960 Clearly, in fact, in many ways he's not in power anymore 94 00:07:00,960 --> 00:07:04,720 because he's kind of a lame duck president, right? 95 00:07:04,720 --> 00:07:07,760 He doesn't even have control over over the government 96 00:07:07,760 --> 00:07:09,280 anymore. So he's just, you know, 97 00:07:09,320 --> 00:07:13,840 representative role. And he has like 2 years left on 98 00:07:13,840 --> 00:07:18,440 his on his mandate even a bit less and he will be gone. 99 00:07:19,240 --> 00:07:27,760 And so a common theory is that he's aiming for a top EU role as 100 00:07:27,760 --> 00:07:31,840 the next step in his career, maybe something like van der 101 00:07:31,840 --> 00:07:37,000 Leyen's position. And that's therefore his 102 00:07:37,000 --> 00:07:39,640 rhetoric. Because if you if you look at 103 00:07:39,640 --> 00:07:42,240 his rhetoric, he's not speaking on behalf of France, he's 104 00:07:42,240 --> 00:07:45,520 speaking on behalf of Europe. So he's saying Europe will put 105 00:07:45,520 --> 00:07:50,360 in place those, those tariffs. Well, actually it doesn't have 106 00:07:50,360 --> 00:07:54,240 the power to say that because at at this stage, you know, he, he 107 00:07:54,240 --> 00:07:55,800 can only speak for France, right? 108 00:07:55,800 --> 00:07:59,520 He can't speak for Europe. And I'm pretty sure that other 109 00:07:59,520 --> 00:08:05,040 European countries such as Germany, for instance, will find 110 00:08:05,080 --> 00:08:08,720 issue with what Michael is saying because, you know, even 111 00:08:08,720 --> 00:08:11,680 though they export less and less to China, it's still a very 112 00:08:11,680 --> 00:08:14,240 important trade partner for for them. 113 00:08:15,480 --> 00:08:21,320 So my guess is that he's starting to position himself as 114 00:08:21,520 --> 00:08:26,960 kind of the tough guy for Europe, defending Europe's 115 00:08:26,960 --> 00:08:29,720 interests on, on, so on and so forth. 116 00:08:30,600 --> 00:08:38,039 But my take is that by doing what he just did, he antagonises 117 00:08:38,039 --> 00:08:43,240 China, of course, and he antagonises other European 118 00:08:43,240 --> 00:08:47,320 countries while I wait you, you, you're not speaking for us. 119 00:08:47,320 --> 00:08:52,000 Like at least, I don't know, a concert with us before, you 120 00:08:52,000 --> 00:08:55,120 know, starting a trade war with with China, maybe. 121 00:08:56,280 --> 00:09:02,000 So, yeah, it's it's, it's it's not exactly logical from a 122 00:09:02,000 --> 00:09:10,320 political standpoint, but yeah. And, and it's it's fairly this 123 00:09:10,320 --> 00:09:16,160 sort of attitude is fairly typical of of Macron where he's 124 00:09:16,160 --> 00:09:20,120 famous in France for what we call Omenton, which means at the 125 00:09:20,120 --> 00:09:25,960 same time or in the meanwhile, where basically we he he will 126 00:09:25,960 --> 00:09:30,680 try to cater to every audience at the so it it doesn't have a 127 00:09:30,680 --> 00:09:35,400 backbone basically. So where is is going to you can 128 00:09:35,400 --> 00:09:40,080 find declaration of him, which are like borderline Marxists 129 00:09:41,240 --> 00:09:49,800 like to attract the extreme left and then borderline fascists to 130 00:09:49,840 --> 00:09:53,240 extract the extreme right. And and that's a bit the same 131 00:09:53,240 --> 00:09:56,120 thing he did there. If you listen, you know, in in 132 00:09:56,120 --> 00:10:00,160 China, I spoke to students at university and I listened to him 133 00:10:00,160 --> 00:10:03,640 and I was like, wow, I agree with every word of what he's 134 00:10:03,640 --> 00:10:06,480 saying. Like we the world should be 135 00:10:06,480 --> 00:10:10,280 together. We shouldn't, you know, I have 136 00:10:10,280 --> 00:10:13,280 divisive rhetoric concerned like, wow, yeah, sure. 137 00:10:13,320 --> 00:10:16,720 Of course that's that's great. And then the first thing just 138 00:10:17,000 --> 00:10:21,680 when it comes back to France is like, you know, I've extremely 139 00:10:21,680 --> 00:10:25,840 divisive rhetoric, which, which is all about threatening China 140 00:10:25,840 --> 00:10:29,040 and, you know, almost Trumpian like rhetoric. 141 00:10:29,560 --> 00:10:34,000 So yeah, it's it's that's my crown for you. 142 00:10:35,480 --> 00:10:40,400 Yeah, I mean, I, I guess I understand why he's always given 143 00:10:40,600 --> 00:10:44,520 a such grand reception in China because from Chinese 144 00:10:44,520 --> 00:10:49,160 perspective, you know, China, remember France as Charles de 145 00:10:49,200 --> 00:10:53,000 Gaulle's France, you know, when de Gaulle actually pilot a 146 00:10:53,160 --> 00:10:57,280 independent policy, you know, including quitting NATO, 147 00:10:57,600 --> 00:11:02,880 recognizing China. And I, I guess the hope is that 148 00:11:03,120 --> 00:11:08,200 Macron maybe at least could pick up some crown of the GAO or, or, 149 00:11:08,200 --> 00:11:12,640 or picking up some mantle, but that, that's obviously misplaced 150 00:11:12,640 --> 00:11:16,880 because, you know, Macron, as you say, he knows how to talk to 151 00:11:16,880 --> 00:11:20,720 the talk to the right audience. You know, he switch, he geared 152 00:11:20,720 --> 00:11:23,920 to her, his, his, his audience. But the, but the problem is 153 00:11:24,400 --> 00:11:27,400 today we live in such an interconnected world. 154 00:11:27,600 --> 00:11:32,120 It's not like what you say in Europe will not be heard back in 155 00:11:32,120 --> 00:11:35,960 China. I mean, like people, we'll just 156 00:11:35,960 --> 00:11:38,640 think, OK, you, you this guy is not serious. 157 00:11:38,640 --> 00:11:41,120 Yes, you can't you can't trust him at his words. 158 00:11:42,720 --> 00:11:46,960 Does so. So I mean, but did his so is his 159 00:11:46,960 --> 00:11:52,000 trip just mostly for commercial purposes and did did that did he 160 00:11:52,000 --> 00:11:55,120 accomplish his goal just, you know, a signed contract for the 161 00:11:55,120 --> 00:11:57,680 French companies in China? Not obvious. 162 00:11:58,640 --> 00:12:03,200 There were talks of China being a lot of Airbus planes, for 163 00:12:03,200 --> 00:12:07,200 instance, but apparently they didn't concretize. 164 00:12:08,520 --> 00:12:14,800 So, you know, they, both sides said that they, they signed like 165 00:12:14,800 --> 00:12:23,880 12, you know, understandings around certain topics and so on. 166 00:12:23,880 --> 00:12:26,840 But this is kind of lukewarm stuff. 167 00:12:26,880 --> 00:12:33,560 I, I don't think there were any like big orders of, for, for, 168 00:12:33,560 --> 00:12:36,760 for French companies, at least I haven't seen any, any public 169 00:12:36,760 --> 00:12:41,800 announcements around that. So I think that's, that was 170 00:12:42,040 --> 00:12:47,480 pretty disappointing from, from a French business standpoint. 171 00:12:47,480 --> 00:12:50,360 Of course, I have no idea why that is the case. 172 00:12:51,440 --> 00:12:55,240 You know, some theories on regarding the Airbus planes is 173 00:12:55,240 --> 00:13:01,440 that China wants to retain also leverage with Trump because 174 00:13:01,600 --> 00:13:05,000 orders of planes is always, you know, big leverage. 175 00:13:05,000 --> 00:13:08,600 And so, you know, they can always say tell Trump if you 176 00:13:08,600 --> 00:13:12,960 play nice with us, we can buy Boeing planes, for instance. 177 00:13:12,960 --> 00:13:16,680 So, you know, I'm, I'm sure there are those types of of 178 00:13:16,680 --> 00:13:21,000 consideration or maybe also, you know, future leverage with, with 179 00:13:21,000 --> 00:13:23,000 Europe as well. Maybe they don't want to play 180 00:13:23,000 --> 00:13:28,160 the Airbus card right now and reserve that order for, for the 181 00:13:28,160 --> 00:13:32,480 future. So, yeah, but yeah, only know 182 00:13:32,520 --> 00:13:38,760 the trip seems to have been relatively unproductive at at 183 00:13:38,760 --> 00:13:41,240 most levels. Like the joke in, in, in, in 184 00:13:41,240 --> 00:13:46,400 French media is that the only thing it got was a panda because 185 00:13:46,400 --> 00:13:53,400 there was a, a, a promise of, you know, replacement panda 186 00:13:53,400 --> 00:13:57,480 being sent to a, to a zoo in France because two pandas were 187 00:13:57,480 --> 00:14:00,720 sent back to China because they were old on the bit sick. 188 00:14:01,720 --> 00:14:06,120 So that was agreed upon. But it's it's pretty much the 189 00:14:06,120 --> 00:14:11,000 only very concrete thing that's that came out of the trip then. 190 00:14:11,000 --> 00:14:14,720 Why? The question is why is he doing 191 00:14:14,720 --> 00:14:19,640 this trip during the last leg of his presidency when he is in 192 00:14:19,640 --> 00:14:24,000 fact the lame duck president? It's just for his legacy, you 193 00:14:24,000 --> 00:14:27,000 know, like why? What's the point? 194 00:14:27,120 --> 00:14:32,080 Yeah, it's, I mean, I, I, I think he's, he's relatively 195 00:14:32,200 --> 00:14:37,800 diplomatically incompetent to be an ass because China is 196 00:14:37,960 --> 00:14:41,120 obviously very important to, to France and to Europe. 197 00:14:41,120 --> 00:14:43,840 And we do have subjects with China. 198 00:14:43,840 --> 00:14:52,840 I mean, you know, we this trade rebalancing thing from Europe 199 00:14:52,840 --> 00:14:56,320 standpoint is an issue. We have a growing issue. 200 00:14:56,320 --> 00:15:02,080 But uncompetitiveness in in Europe where you know what 201 00:15:02,080 --> 00:15:05,360 French media are saying these days is that we are the emerging 202 00:15:05,360 --> 00:15:08,440 countries and China is the developed country. 203 00:15:08,440 --> 00:15:13,600 And now we need to inverse things where we're the ones in 204 00:15:13,600 --> 00:15:17,480 need of of technology transfers from from China. 205 00:15:18,640 --> 00:15:25,640 And then, of course, you know, China could also help, you know, 206 00:15:25,800 --> 00:15:30,760 in, in terms of leverage vis a vis the USI think this would be 207 00:15:30,760 --> 00:15:37,360 a smart geopolitical positioning for Europe where you're kind of 208 00:15:37,680 --> 00:15:44,000 the pivot in the middle, right, Where you, you we would have our 209 00:15:44,000 --> 00:15:48,920 own China cards that we can have with respect to, to Trump. 210 00:15:49,240 --> 00:15:53,600 So when Trump pushes too much, we can tell him, you know, we 211 00:15:53,600 --> 00:15:57,400 have the Chinese on the other side who offer much better deals 212 00:15:57,400 --> 00:16:03,000 on the on, you know, so you could do something interesting 213 00:16:03,000 --> 00:16:10,280 in in, in many respects. But the way this played out it, 214 00:16:10,360 --> 00:16:20,040 it looks like Micron came with a pretty arrogant attitude, pretty 215 00:16:20,040 --> 00:16:29,480 unrealistic objectives that weren't achieved and nothing was 216 00:16:29,480 --> 00:16:31,200 achieved. And it comes back and it starts 217 00:16:31,200 --> 00:16:34,360 threatening China, which undermines this whole trip. 218 00:16:34,680 --> 00:16:37,240 I mean, then it's a waste of time, I think. 219 00:16:37,240 --> 00:16:40,560 And I generally think it it could have been productive 220 00:16:40,560 --> 00:16:45,160 because China really, you know, now granted him a lot of 221 00:16:45,160 --> 00:16:48,560 respect, showed that the door was open and so on. 222 00:16:48,800 --> 00:16:51,520 So let's capitalize on, on, on that. 223 00:16:51,600 --> 00:16:54,280 You know, we have this Goodwin on the Chinese side. 224 00:16:54,280 --> 00:16:58,040 Why not capitalize on it instead of, you know, closing the door 225 00:16:58,400 --> 00:17:01,800 shut? So yeah, it's, it's just, it's 226 00:17:01,800 --> 00:17:06,319 sad, to be honest. What does France hope to get 227 00:17:06,359 --> 00:17:09,640 from its interaction with China? I mean, what, what, what are the 228 00:17:09,640 --> 00:17:13,200 French national interests involved when it comes to China? 229 00:17:13,200 --> 00:17:17,760 What kind of relationship does France or the French Lee hope to 230 00:17:17,760 --> 00:17:22,680 have with China at this point? I, I think there are two things 231 00:17:22,760 --> 00:17:30,160 that are the objectives interest on there is the delusions of, 232 00:17:30,200 --> 00:17:32,320 of, of the current French leadership. 233 00:17:32,320 --> 00:17:39,680 So let's look at the delusions first of all, where they want to 234 00:17:39,680 --> 00:17:45,920 rebalance trade with China, where basically their ideal 235 00:17:45,920 --> 00:17:51,840 scenario is they sell as much to China as China sells to them. 236 00:17:53,440 --> 00:17:57,360 But for that, obviously you need to have things to sell to China 237 00:17:57,760 --> 00:18:01,640 that China is interested in buying, right, Obviously. 238 00:18:03,800 --> 00:18:08,480 And, and, and that's the issue. The issue is in Europe right 239 00:18:08,480 --> 00:18:13,720 now, and particularly in France, we've become quite uncompetitive 240 00:18:13,920 --> 00:18:20,840 in, in many industries to the extent that, you know, the 241 00:18:20,840 --> 00:18:24,040 Chinese are like, why would we buy your stuff when the stuff 242 00:18:24,040 --> 00:18:28,480 that we make at home are, you know, much better quality. 243 00:18:28,480 --> 00:18:30,680 So cars are a great example of that. 244 00:18:31,120 --> 00:18:35,200 There was a moment where, you know, French cars were fairly 245 00:18:35,200 --> 00:18:38,560 popular in China. They were mostly located in 246 00:18:38,800 --> 00:18:41,560 Wuhan. Wuhan was actually the French 247 00:18:41,560 --> 00:18:45,760 car city in China. That's why to this day there is 248 00:18:45,760 --> 00:18:49,360 a French school in Wuhan because there were so many French car 249 00:18:49,360 --> 00:18:54,840 executives living there. But, you know, drive around in 250 00:18:54,840 --> 00:19:01,680 China these days and it's, it's almost impossible to see a 251 00:19:01,680 --> 00:19:06,640 single French car simply because they're not attractive to 252 00:19:06,640 --> 00:19:09,600 Chinese customers, right? So they have their own cars. 253 00:19:10,040 --> 00:19:14,880 German cars are still to some extent competitive, even though 254 00:19:14,880 --> 00:19:18,720 that's on the way down. Tesla is still to some extent 255 00:19:18,720 --> 00:19:20,840 competitive, also on the way down. 256 00:19:20,840 --> 00:19:27,920 But French cars, you know, pretty much gone and, you know, 257 00:19:27,920 --> 00:19:31,280 otherwise we have, you know, the typical French stuff like 258 00:19:31,280 --> 00:19:37,080 fashion or cosmetics or, you know, alcohol, wine and so on. 259 00:19:38,280 --> 00:19:41,760 But that also is on the way down. 260 00:19:42,760 --> 00:19:46,120 So, you know, just looking at wine, for instance, I just 261 00:19:47,160 --> 00:19:52,720 recently saw that one of the foremost French critics of wine, 262 00:19:53,560 --> 00:19:58,560 actually I did a tour of China, of Chinese vineyards and he was 263 00:19:58,560 --> 00:20:02,440 astonished to see that the quality, as he said, on average 264 00:20:03,280 --> 00:20:08,160 was better than in France. So he didn't say that the best 265 00:20:08,160 --> 00:20:11,120 Chinese wine were better than the best French wine. 266 00:20:11,120 --> 00:20:14,720 So I think, I think if you look at the, you know, the top 267 00:20:14,800 --> 00:20:17,960 Bordeaux Grand Prix and Sun were still above China. 268 00:20:17,960 --> 00:20:22,480 He just spoke about the the average standard that he thought 269 00:20:22,480 --> 00:20:24,280 was was better at this stage in China. 270 00:20:24,280 --> 00:20:29,800 So you can see a trajectory. Where bit by bit the Chinese are 271 00:20:29,800 --> 00:20:33,240 going to be like, why would we import very expensive French 272 00:20:33,240 --> 00:20:36,720 wine when we actually have three decent wine in China? 273 00:20:37,720 --> 00:20:42,040 And same thing for fashion. You're starting to see, you 274 00:20:42,040 --> 00:20:47,440 know, luxury fashion brands in China appear on on. 275 00:20:47,440 --> 00:20:52,000 So bit by bit you're starting to see a pattern where the Chinese 276 00:20:52,000 --> 00:20:55,480 are like, you know, we, we need less and less stuff for, from 277 00:20:55,480 --> 00:21:00,520 France. And so the solution from the 278 00:21:00,520 --> 00:21:08,520 French side is not to, to, to be kind of dictatorial, but that's 279 00:21:08,520 --> 00:21:14,040 on say, no, we, we want you to buy your stuff even though you 280 00:21:14,040 --> 00:21:18,240 don't want to. That was the time of the 19th 281 00:21:18,240 --> 00:21:20,080 century. That was the problem with the 282 00:21:20,360 --> 00:21:23,280 the IT was the exact same issue with the Opium War. 283 00:21:23,760 --> 00:21:26,280 That's why the opium war happened because there was a 284 00:21:26,280 --> 00:21:30,680 huge trade imbalance. China was selling much more 285 00:21:30,680 --> 00:21:36,160 stuff to Britain that Britain was was selling to China. 286 00:21:36,160 --> 00:21:41,720 And so they forced the Chinese to buy opium as as a as a 287 00:21:41,720 --> 00:21:45,240 result. But they could do that at the 288 00:21:45,240 --> 00:21:48,200 time because their military superiority, right? 289 00:21:48,200 --> 00:21:52,160 So there were the Opium wars on the one on, on the forced opium 290 00:21:52,160 --> 00:21:56,240 done China's fraud. That's not possible that that, 291 00:21:56,360 --> 00:22:00,640 you know, China is too powerful. The French army I, I, I saw the 292 00:22:00,640 --> 00:22:06,320 other day in one day the Chinese Navy in terms of tonnage 293 00:22:07,400 --> 00:22:13,040 launched in a single day as many military ships than the entire 294 00:22:13,040 --> 00:22:18,360 French Navy in one day. So, you know, that's, that's the 295 00:22:18,360 --> 00:22:24,760 situation right now. So the solution is therefore to 296 00:22:25,000 --> 00:22:28,520 make an effort on our side to gaining competitiveness on 297 00:22:28,520 --> 00:22:33,240 trying to find a way to develop products that's that's that are 298 00:22:33,240 --> 00:22:37,720 interesting to the to the change market or to become extremely 299 00:22:37,720 --> 00:22:42,160 protectionist on our side to dramatically reduce the amount 300 00:22:42,160 --> 00:22:48,640 of of Chinese imports. But that's shooting ourselves in 301 00:22:48,640 --> 00:22:52,760 the foot because then it makes our companies even less 302 00:22:52,760 --> 00:22:56,720 competitive when you're it's the, the India story, when when 303 00:22:56,720 --> 00:23:00,240 you completely close, it's yourself down to, to the 304 00:23:00,240 --> 00:23:03,440 exterior world. Sure, you protect your company. 305 00:23:04,320 --> 00:23:12,800 Sure you the, the, the, the, the trade is balanced somehow. 306 00:23:13,440 --> 00:23:15,960 But then because there is no competition, because your 307 00:23:15,960 --> 00:23:20,960 companies are so insulated from competition, then they're 308 00:23:20,960 --> 00:23:24,200 completely uncompetitive on, on the global level on on. 309 00:23:24,200 --> 00:23:28,080 So we probably don't want that. So that's the reality. 310 00:23:29,440 --> 00:23:32,680 So that's the first thing. The second thing is there is 311 00:23:33,200 --> 00:23:37,360 expectations on the Ukraine war. So the expectation is that 312 00:23:37,360 --> 00:23:42,720 somehow China will side, will side with Europe against Russia. 313 00:23:44,040 --> 00:23:46,360 But that is also very unrealistic. 314 00:23:46,360 --> 00:23:51,640 Like, why would China go effectively declare war on its 315 00:23:51,640 --> 00:23:57,760 biggest neighbor, by the way, the one it has been warring with 316 00:23:57,760 --> 00:24:03,240 for millennia? You know, that's why they build 317 00:24:03,240 --> 00:24:09,240 the great world, right to. So why would they, you know, 318 00:24:09,240 --> 00:24:13,400 start again, this sort of pattern with a great being 319 00:24:13,400 --> 00:24:17,520 aggressive to their northern neighbor just to please 320 00:24:17,520 --> 00:24:19,280 Europeans that that's just delusional. 321 00:24:19,280 --> 00:24:20,640 They will they will never do that. 322 00:24:20,640 --> 00:24:24,480 So there is this expectation from from Europe, but it it 323 00:24:24,480 --> 00:24:28,560 won't happen. What China can do and what it 324 00:24:28,720 --> 00:24:34,000 proposed to do, because the, the proposed peace plan in in 2023 325 00:24:34,680 --> 00:24:39,400 was to play the role of moderator where they, they tell 326 00:24:39,400 --> 00:24:43,600 the European side, you know, Russia's position, that the 327 00:24:43,600 --> 00:24:47,920 Russia side, Euro's position, they try to find a genuinely 328 00:24:47,920 --> 00:24:51,760 mutually agreeable compromise. But at this stage, Europe 329 00:24:52,320 --> 00:24:55,440 doesn't want to compromise that that is the key characteristic 330 00:24:55,440 --> 00:25:00,880 of of Europe right now. They're just, you know, very set 331 00:25:00,960 --> 00:25:07,480 in their in, in, in their ideology on the very unrealistic 332 00:25:07,480 --> 00:25:12,680 because they want to defeat Russia, which is just not 333 00:25:12,680 --> 00:25:17,200 possible at this stage. So there is a big gap over 334 00:25:17,200 --> 00:25:23,200 between what Europe wants from China on what can be 335 00:25:23,200 --> 00:25:30,320 realistically achieved. So the solution is more changing 336 00:25:30,320 --> 00:25:33,960 our mindset in Europe to be much more realistic because we can't 337 00:25:33,960 --> 00:25:37,920 get things from China. But if we understand China and 338 00:25:37,920 --> 00:25:41,200 if we're realistic about it, if if we keep asking for things 339 00:25:41,200 --> 00:25:44,720 that are just way out there and, and just not possible, of 340 00:25:44,720 --> 00:25:46,320 course, we will never get anything. 341 00:25:46,320 --> 00:25:49,880 And the only thing we will achieve is an antagonistic 342 00:25:50,160 --> 00:25:52,120 relationship which serves no one. 343 00:25:54,080 --> 00:25:59,280 Yeah, One thing I remember you tweeting about the the French 344 00:25:59,280 --> 00:26:04,080 report, how now we are the, now the table has flipped, we are 345 00:26:04,080 --> 00:26:07,080 the emerging economy. We're expecting to get 346 00:26:07,080 --> 00:26:09,360 technological transfer from China. 347 00:26:09,600 --> 00:26:14,800 So dude, was was the expectation that, you know, Macron's visit 348 00:26:14,800 --> 00:26:18,960 will facilitate some more Chinese investment into France, 349 00:26:18,960 --> 00:26:22,480 you know, that that would tie with the Chinese technological 350 00:26:22,480 --> 00:26:25,600 transfer, Was that also expectation? 351 00:26:25,680 --> 00:26:27,600 Yeah. There is an expectation. 352 00:26:27,760 --> 00:26:31,440 And I think to be honest, from China's side, that could be 353 00:26:31,440 --> 00:26:37,240 something that they can, you know, that they could consider 354 00:26:38,200 --> 00:26:42,800 because, you know, this is this is fair. 355 00:26:43,720 --> 00:26:48,160 I will say because China did that a lot to to the West as 356 00:26:48,160 --> 00:26:52,840 well in, in a, in a mutually agreeable way, not not as a 357 00:26:52,840 --> 00:26:57,240 diktats basically company by company, OK, you want access to 358 00:26:57,240 --> 00:27:02,440 our markets, but we need help developing for this or, or that 359 00:27:02,440 --> 00:27:04,720 technology. So let's find a win win here. 360 00:27:05,280 --> 00:27:09,320 So you could very much imagine, you know, something similar 361 00:27:10,400 --> 00:27:17,040 where, you know, let's say Huawei is allowed to sell its 362 00:27:17,560 --> 00:27:21,360 its phones or something to to the European market. 363 00:27:22,600 --> 00:27:27,720 But you know, they help Europe in in some ways, you know, 364 00:27:27,960 --> 00:27:33,040 commit to taking some suppliers for Europe or opening a factory 365 00:27:33,040 --> 00:27:36,120 in Europe or, you know, something like that. 366 00:27:37,720 --> 00:27:44,040 But I think the issue is that Europe wants to do it the in, 367 00:27:44,080 --> 00:27:49,520 in, in a diktat way where they want to set to you some rules at 368 00:27:49,520 --> 00:27:53,400 the European levels saying no, China needs to give us their 369 00:27:53,400 --> 00:27:56,640 technology, they want access to the European market and so on. 370 00:27:57,080 --> 00:28:01,800 In in a confrontational way on the on that sort of approach 371 00:28:03,480 --> 00:28:06,840 never really works with China. It's, it's, it's very much 372 00:28:06,840 --> 00:28:12,680 against the culture, which is all about mutual respect. 373 00:28:13,760 --> 00:28:18,840 So I think there needs to be again, a mindset shift in Europe 374 00:28:19,440 --> 00:28:25,400 where they need to understand the way China works, where you 375 00:28:25,400 --> 00:28:27,480 can, you can actually get things from China. 376 00:28:27,520 --> 00:28:33,680 The, the Chinese are, you know, businessmen, negotiators. 377 00:28:33,960 --> 00:28:42,360 They're they're very pragmatic as soon as you treat with them 378 00:28:43,600 --> 00:28:48,320 as equals and with respect. I think that's the basic thing 379 00:28:48,320 --> 00:28:52,080 that's that needs to be understood on which very much 380 00:28:52,080 --> 00:28:56,920 isn't the case still in France. I mean, when you listen to 381 00:28:57,600 --> 00:29:00,640 people in France, the French media and so on, it's we're, 382 00:29:00,640 --> 00:29:06,360 we're still, you know, you can still hear almost like 19th 383 00:29:06,360 --> 00:29:11,840 century rhetoric on, on China where, you know, we still view 384 00:29:11,840 --> 00:29:19,920 them as, as almost like, you know, uncivilized tribe that 385 00:29:19,920 --> 00:29:22,240 needs Western enlightenment and so on. 386 00:29:22,240 --> 00:29:25,360 Like it's, it's insane. It's insane. 387 00:29:27,480 --> 00:29:32,800 How, how, how we are like, let me give you an example. 388 00:29:32,800 --> 00:29:38,320 Recently there was a French MP. The only thing he tweeted was 389 00:29:38,440 --> 00:29:45,080 Taiwan is Chinese, which is true if you look at it under any 390 00:29:45,080 --> 00:29:50,000 angle, like politically is true, you know, even from the 391 00:29:50,000 --> 00:29:55,760 Taiwanese angle because it's independence. 392 00:29:55,760 --> 00:29:59,160 So, you know, even in that constitution, it's true that 393 00:29:59,360 --> 00:30:06,280 Taiwan is Chinese is true from a cultural standpoint, Taiwan is 394 00:30:06,280 --> 00:30:10,240 Chinese because it's mostly Han Chinese living there. 395 00:30:11,080 --> 00:30:14,840 They speak, you know, Chinese and so on and so forth. 396 00:30:15,120 --> 00:30:18,000 So there is no controversy at all with that statement. 397 00:30:18,000 --> 00:30:22,520 Taiwan is Chinese. But that created a huge outcry 398 00:30:22,520 --> 00:30:25,040 in France. And you had like all French 399 00:30:25,040 --> 00:30:29,720 media saying like this is like, you know, CCP propaganda on the 400 00:30:31,280 --> 00:30:37,520 Taiwan, Taiwan is a is a sovereign country, you know, 401 00:30:37,680 --> 00:30:41,920 like complete historical revisionism. 402 00:30:43,240 --> 00:30:48,640 So that's that's France right now still in that, you know, 403 00:30:53,520 --> 00:30:57,400 express And of course, that is not conducive to understanding 404 00:30:57,400 --> 00:30:59,920 China and treating them with respect. 405 00:30:59,920 --> 00:31:04,200 And therefore, you know, getting some actual concrete things done 406 00:31:04,200 --> 00:31:05,920 with China. We're shooting ourselves in the 407 00:31:05,920 --> 00:31:10,880 foot, I think. I mean, it is power is very 408 00:31:10,880 --> 00:31:14,640 baffling from the Chinese perspective because it's like, 409 00:31:14,640 --> 00:31:16,840 what what does France have to do with Taiwan? 410 00:31:17,080 --> 00:31:18,840 Does Europe have to do with Taiwan? 411 00:31:19,040 --> 00:31:23,640 This is like, you know, Europe is not even a major colonial 412 00:31:23,640 --> 00:31:26,360 power that's deeply involved in the region anymore. 413 00:31:26,360 --> 00:31:27,880 Why? Why do you care? 414 00:31:28,480 --> 00:31:34,160 And, and also that's actually, it is official position of all 415 00:31:34,160 --> 00:31:38,800 the major countries around the world to recognize that, you 416 00:31:38,800 --> 00:31:42,040 know, 1 China principle that, that, that Taiwan is part of 417 00:31:42,040 --> 00:31:45,120 China and the only Rep legal representative of China is the 418 00:31:45,120 --> 00:31:49,600 government in Beijing. So, you know, it's, it's kind of 419 00:31:49,600 --> 00:31:55,680 baffling why there would even be a, a, a media storm over a 420 00:31:55,680 --> 00:31:58,840 statement like this. Like what does, what does, you 421 00:31:58,840 --> 00:32:01,440 know, Taiwan issue have to do with France? 422 00:32:01,920 --> 00:32:03,440 What does it have to do with Europe? 423 00:32:05,280 --> 00:32:09,920 Yeah, it's crazy. And the most buffering thing is 424 00:32:09,920 --> 00:32:15,280 that it's getting worse. Like if you reread what was 425 00:32:15,280 --> 00:32:20,200 written about Taiwan under the Gulf for instance, it was 426 00:32:20,200 --> 00:32:24,800 actually much more reasonable even though at the time we were 427 00:32:24,800 --> 00:32:30,080 during the Cold War so you would think that the anti communism 428 00:32:30,400 --> 00:32:36,400 would be much more virulent. And even though at the time 429 00:32:36,720 --> 00:32:39,760 France was way more powerful than it is today. 430 00:32:39,760 --> 00:32:44,880 So if there had been a Taiwan war or Taiwan issue, we could 431 00:32:44,880 --> 00:32:46,440 actually have done something about it. 432 00:32:46,440 --> 00:32:50,480 But no, we were, you know, way more reasonable. 433 00:32:50,480 --> 00:32:58,040 Like I was reading the book of the goes right hand man at the 434 00:32:58,040 --> 00:33:02,440 time, a guy called Alan Perfitt and he was describing Taiwan as 435 00:33:02,760 --> 00:33:08,120 China's Alsace Lauren. You know, in France, we had we 436 00:33:08,120 --> 00:33:11,960 had an issue where we had lost Alsace Lauren to the to the 437 00:33:11,960 --> 00:33:15,520 Germans on the on during, you know, decades. 438 00:33:15,520 --> 00:33:18,920 The battle cry in France was we need to get back Alsace Lauren, 439 00:33:18,920 --> 00:33:20,880 which we did in the First World War. 440 00:33:22,040 --> 00:33:24,400 And it's true to some, to some degree. 441 00:33:24,400 --> 00:33:29,760 It is China's as as Lauren. I mean, it matters as much to 442 00:33:29,760 --> 00:33:33,320 China as it did as as Lauren did to us. 443 00:33:33,320 --> 00:33:37,040 So, so there was some pragmatism, some understanding 444 00:33:40,040 --> 00:33:43,880 that is largely gone at least from the from the mainstream. 445 00:33:44,720 --> 00:33:49,840 Right now the mainstream is basically completely aligned on 446 00:33:49,840 --> 00:33:55,240 Taiwan, align very much with that, you know, liberal 447 00:33:55,240 --> 00:34:02,080 internationalists, you know, we need to kind of end of history 448 00:34:02,080 --> 00:34:09,159 Fukuyama pipeline, which is somewhat bizarre because that 449 00:34:09,159 --> 00:34:12,199 line is disappearing from everywhere. 450 00:34:12,199 --> 00:34:17,120 The the US is moving out of it as as is obvious from their 451 00:34:17,120 --> 00:34:19,679 latest national security strategy. 452 00:34:20,920 --> 00:34:26,239 So Europe is less powerful, is the less bastion of this type of 453 00:34:26,480 --> 00:34:32,239 supremacist Western thinking, which it cannot act upon because 454 00:34:32,800 --> 00:34:34,920 it's not powerful at all anymore. 455 00:34:34,920 --> 00:34:38,159 So yeah, it is. It's just pure ideology. 456 00:34:38,159 --> 00:34:45,199 It's just bizarre. How how how did that happen 457 00:34:45,199 --> 00:34:47,320 though? How did, how did kind of the 458 00:34:47,719 --> 00:34:54,280 France, how did the kind of the neoliberal internationalist or 459 00:34:54,280 --> 00:34:58,840 some people say globalist ideology take over France? 460 00:34:58,840 --> 00:35:01,800 You know how? Because that was obviously not 461 00:35:01,800 --> 00:35:09,960 the case back in 1960s. Yeah, so I, I think during the 462 00:35:09,960 --> 00:35:14,120 Cold War, after the goal on the all all the way until the, the 463 00:35:14,120 --> 00:35:20,200 Cold War, there was a pretty vivid intellectual ferment in in 464 00:35:20,200 --> 00:35:24,640 France where, you know, a lot of French intellectuals were 465 00:35:25,600 --> 00:35:30,440 communists, even Maoists. There were an enormous amount 466 00:35:30,440 --> 00:35:33,720 of, of Maoists in, in, in France. 467 00:35:33,920 --> 00:35:39,120 Some of the biggest French philosophers were very devoted 468 00:35:39,120 --> 00:35:44,000 Maoists on the, on some very famous film makers as well. 469 00:35:44,000 --> 00:35:48,880 Like, you know, when, when my dad was young, you could see 470 00:35:48,880 --> 00:35:54,240 some movies in the, in the cinema in France praising the 471 00:35:54,240 --> 00:35:56,680 Cultural Revolution on the Red Guards. 472 00:35:56,760 --> 00:35:58,680 Like that was France at the time. 473 00:35:58,920 --> 00:36:01,720 It's crazy to think right now, but, you know, France was very 474 00:36:01,720 --> 00:36:06,280 much like that. But then the end of the Cold War 475 00:36:06,280 --> 00:36:12,720 came on, on the, you know, there was sort of this triumph of of 476 00:36:13,320 --> 00:36:18,960 the the the liberal internationalist slash globalist 477 00:36:19,280 --> 00:36:23,520 line. And all those intellectuals sort 478 00:36:23,520 --> 00:36:30,240 of, you know, did their Mia culpa saying, yeah, we were, we 479 00:36:30,240 --> 00:36:35,760 were stupid on the sorry and on. So very few stayed on the Maoist 480 00:36:35,760 --> 00:36:39,160 line, but few did, but very, very few. 481 00:36:41,000 --> 00:36:44,680 And that's been the case since then basically that there was a 482 00:36:44,680 --> 00:36:51,120 shift then maybe helps by the US, which is, you know, very 483 00:36:51,120 --> 00:36:55,920 strong influence networks in in France on the, you know, a lot 484 00:36:55,920 --> 00:37:02,080 of top French leaders were invited to the US on the, you 485 00:37:02,080 --> 00:37:05,920 know, even maybe paid sometimes on some sort of scholarships and 486 00:37:05,920 --> 00:37:09,520 so on. So anyway, there there was an 487 00:37:09,640 --> 00:37:15,600 eradication of this alternative thinking in France basically, at 488 00:37:15,600 --> 00:37:20,040 least in in the mainstream. And we're still on that plane. 489 00:37:21,520 --> 00:37:25,840 And you know, what you need to understand about European 490 00:37:25,840 --> 00:37:33,320 thinking is that it's actually quite ideology is very strong. 491 00:37:35,200 --> 00:37:38,800 You know, you can remember during the middle age we used to 492 00:37:38,800 --> 00:37:41,920 burn people at the stake if they were thinking wrongly, right? 493 00:37:42,800 --> 00:37:44,720 It's in Europe that there was the Inquisition. 494 00:37:44,720 --> 00:37:49,880 So anyone that was considered heretical, like, you know, 495 00:37:50,080 --> 00:37:53,200 thinking wrong, we would literally burn them. 496 00:37:55,040 --> 00:37:59,440 So that's we come from from that sort of tradition. 497 00:38:01,000 --> 00:38:05,600 If you deviate from the mainstream thinking, it's, it's 498 00:38:05,600 --> 00:38:11,960 actually very violent the the ecosystem, the atmosphere in 499 00:38:11,960 --> 00:38:14,840 France. So like that guy that MPI was 500 00:38:14,840 --> 00:38:19,160 speaking about earlier who tweeted just Taiwan is Chinese. 501 00:38:21,080 --> 00:38:26,360 The reaction from the media is, is extraordinarily violent. 502 00:38:26,360 --> 00:38:30,600 Like there was no one defending him except maybe people from his 503 00:38:30,600 --> 00:38:37,040 French political group. Still, I'm, I'm not even sure, 504 00:38:37,040 --> 00:38:40,240 but that's like it's, it's social death for the guy. 505 00:38:41,200 --> 00:38:45,320 And so it's a very heavy intellectual atmosphere where 506 00:38:45,320 --> 00:38:50,000 maybe some people want to express other thoughts, but they 507 00:38:50,000 --> 00:38:57,680 know that if they if they do so, then it's it's social death. 508 00:38:58,520 --> 00:39:00,760 So yeah, that that's the environment. 509 00:39:02,640 --> 00:39:06,280 Speaking of ideological struggle, another thing I fail 510 00:39:06,280 --> 00:39:09,920 to understand is the the the Ukraine issue. 511 00:39:10,120 --> 00:39:13,920 I mean, Uus for the longest time Europe has been following 512 00:39:13,920 --> 00:39:18,200 Washington's lead on the whole Ukraine crisis. 513 00:39:18,200 --> 00:39:22,600 Now Washington wants to wash his hands of of the Ukraine want to 514 00:39:22,640 --> 00:39:24,640 have a speech, a settlement with Russia. 515 00:39:25,000 --> 00:39:28,640 Why I failed on From my perspective, I'm baffled why 516 00:39:28,640 --> 00:39:31,800 Europe didn't just simply go along with that. 517 00:39:31,800 --> 00:39:34,400 And why are they are, are they sick? 518 00:39:34,400 --> 00:39:36,800 They, they saying they're going to pick up the slag. 519 00:39:36,800 --> 00:39:41,440 If, if, if Washington refused to support Ukraine, they will do it 520 00:39:41,440 --> 00:39:45,040 themselves. Like, but why that was, that was 521 00:39:45,040 --> 00:39:49,040 like in a Washington LED project from the beginning. 522 00:39:49,040 --> 00:39:53,640 Why, why these kind of attachment to that whole 523 00:39:53,640 --> 00:39:55,360 project? I I I failed to understand 524 00:39:55,360 --> 00:40:00,000 because wouldn't making peace be better for everyone, especially 525 00:40:00,000 --> 00:40:07,360 for people in Europe? Yeah, I mean it is a bit 526 00:40:07,360 --> 00:40:09,400 baffling. I agree with you. 527 00:40:09,640 --> 00:40:13,520 So on, on it's it's hard to explain exactly why. 528 00:40:13,520 --> 00:40:22,320 So one line of thinking is that it's actually a way to 529 00:40:22,400 --> 00:40:30,360 manufacture consents for independence military in Europe. 530 00:40:30,600 --> 00:40:37,760 So, you know, showing the European population there is war 531 00:40:38,000 --> 00:40:41,840 in Europe, Ukraine is in Europe, we have an enemy which is 532 00:40:41,840 --> 00:40:45,320 Russia. Hence the need to increase our, 533 00:40:45,320 --> 00:40:49,040 our military budget on, you know, as a result, you know, 534 00:40:49,040 --> 00:40:53,120 cuts your pensions, cuts social expenses and so on and so forth. 535 00:40:53,160 --> 00:40:57,040 You need that sort of of justification. 536 00:40:59,040 --> 00:41:07,160 Another line of, of thinking is, is, is that, you know, quite few 537 00:41:07,160 --> 00:41:16,880 things keep the European projects alive, like can act as 538 00:41:17,200 --> 00:41:27,160 a as some sort of, you know, federating idea on having an 539 00:41:27,160 --> 00:41:29,920 enemy. Having a war is always a very 540 00:41:29,920 --> 00:41:38,280 useful thing to kind of unite different peoples around 541 00:41:38,280 --> 00:41:42,960 something common. Like the US has used that a lot, 542 00:41:42,960 --> 00:41:47,520 right? Where they're not united, 543 00:41:47,840 --> 00:41:52,720 they're actually very divided the United States, but you know, 544 00:41:52,720 --> 00:41:55,960 so fun. They've used walls as as a way 545 00:41:55,960 --> 00:42:00,560 to ready their population around, around the common goal. 546 00:42:00,560 --> 00:42:08,000 So I think that the EU plays a lot on that using Ukraine, the 547 00:42:08,040 --> 00:42:13,960 the boogeyman of of Russia as some sort of of writing cry, 548 00:42:14,040 --> 00:42:20,080 right? Yeah, those are, if I want to be 549 00:42:20,080 --> 00:42:25,280 generous, those are the two explanations, most likely 550 00:42:25,280 --> 00:42:27,880 explanations that that I can see. 551 00:42:29,280 --> 00:42:36,800 And then maybe it's simply that Europe, you know, often 552 00:42:38,920 --> 00:42:42,160 functions at the lowest common denominator. 553 00:42:42,160 --> 00:42:47,840 You need to put 27 people in agreement on something, which is 554 00:42:47,840 --> 00:42:53,040 not easy because those are quite different nations like the 555 00:42:53,880 --> 00:42:59,880 Baltics, which are extremely, extremely hostile to Russia, 556 00:42:59,920 --> 00:43:02,320 right? In fact, the whole of most of 557 00:43:02,320 --> 00:43:08,000 Houston Europe is. And then you have some countries 558 00:43:08,000 --> 00:43:12,600 which are, you know, more more favorable, like like Hungary and 559 00:43:12,600 --> 00:43:18,280 so on. And each has a vice, each has a 560 00:43:18,280 --> 00:43:24,120 vote, equal vote. And, and, and when you have such 561 00:43:24,120 --> 00:43:28,520 disagreement, often the best course of action is simply 562 00:43:29,360 --> 00:43:31,400 nothing like you just stay the course. 563 00:43:32,200 --> 00:43:36,600 There is paradises. You just, you know, keep doing 564 00:43:36,600 --> 00:43:38,960 the same thing over and over again. 565 00:43:40,120 --> 00:43:44,280 And in the absence of a very charismatic leader who can 566 00:43:44,280 --> 00:43:49,520 propose a alternative vision on someone who is ready to, you 567 00:43:49,520 --> 00:43:53,800 know, change course completely on, you know, maybe Trump, Trump 568 00:43:53,800 --> 00:44:02,440 on say, you know, we are going to be the ones to negotiate 569 00:44:02,440 --> 00:44:05,880 with, with Russia. I will speak with with Putin. 570 00:44:05,920 --> 00:44:10,240 We will propose our own deal. And we won't let Trump do that. 571 00:44:10,240 --> 00:44:12,880 Like that takes an enormous amount of political courage. 572 00:44:13,280 --> 00:44:15,440 Like who in Europe could do that today? 573 00:44:15,440 --> 00:44:24,880 You just don't have any vandalism if unless yeah, there 574 00:44:24,880 --> 00:44:31,760 is like Macron doesn't have any, any credibility because he's 575 00:44:31,800 --> 00:44:38,240 absolutely hated by by Russia. So yeah, it's, it's also an 576 00:44:38,240 --> 00:44:43,160 absence of, you know, charismatic, visionary popular 577 00:44:43,240 --> 00:44:46,480 leaders who can propose a positive vision. 578 00:44:49,240 --> 00:44:53,680 What, what is, what is the future of European project at 579 00:44:53,680 --> 00:44:56,520 this point? I mean, I, I just Speaking of 580 00:44:57,360 --> 00:45:00,640 Europe and you mentioned there's many differences among its 581 00:45:00,640 --> 00:45:04,600 member nations. I remember the Nesperia case. 582 00:45:04,600 --> 00:45:10,360 The Dutch economic minister was brought before EU to ask about 583 00:45:10,520 --> 00:45:15,560 why he did not inform EU or China about his decision to 584 00:45:15,560 --> 00:45:19,600 seize Nesperia from the Chinese parent company Wintech. 585 00:45:19,600 --> 00:45:24,840 And he said, oh, this because the less people know about it, 586 00:45:24,840 --> 00:45:27,800 the better. That's we don't have time to 587 00:45:27,800 --> 00:45:32,160 inform everybody including EU because you know, then then the 588 00:45:32,160 --> 00:45:38,200 Chinese might have the time to act, which is which make me 589 00:45:38,200 --> 00:45:42,120 question, so who is setting the policy here? 590 00:45:42,160 --> 00:45:47,800 If I like an individual economic minister of Netherland, in this 591 00:45:47,800 --> 00:45:53,800 case, he apparently his action actually impacted all of you as 592 00:45:55,000 --> 00:45:58,600 a whole, because, you know, he created the whole semiconductor 593 00:45:58,600 --> 00:46:02,520 supply chain crisis by the seizing of Nesperia that 594 00:46:02,760 --> 00:46:05,600 impacted the German and the French automakers. 595 00:46:06,120 --> 00:46:09,840 Yet he he decided, OK, I I don't need to apparently I don't need 596 00:46:09,840 --> 00:46:14,160 to consult with anybody, including the EU politicians. 597 00:46:14,320 --> 00:46:18,520 I can just go ahead and make this decision on my own. 598 00:46:18,800 --> 00:46:22,200 And and which he stood by and he said he would do it again, you 599 00:46:22,200 --> 00:46:23,960 know, even even know what had happened. 600 00:46:24,400 --> 00:46:31,520 What is what is your I want your take on like the future of the 601 00:46:31,520 --> 00:46:40,720 EU project? Yeah, I mean, I'm basically it's 602 00:46:40,720 --> 00:46:43,840 it's it's very clear that things don't work today. 603 00:46:43,960 --> 00:46:51,080 Right on, on the Nixterior case is a great example because it 604 00:46:51,080 --> 00:46:53,960 shows there is no strategy, there is no coordination, it's 605 00:46:53,960 --> 00:46:59,480 just a mess. What I always say when it comes 606 00:46:59,480 --> 00:47:03,600 to Europe is there is either too much Europe or not enough. 607 00:47:04,040 --> 00:47:07,880 But but the, the amount right now is, is is not OK. 608 00:47:08,160 --> 00:47:14,160 So either Europe becomes, you know, almost like a federation, 609 00:47:14,680 --> 00:47:19,040 like an actual state with, you know, the power of a state 610 00:47:19,040 --> 00:47:22,480 coordination. It can really impose things on 611 00:47:22,480 --> 00:47:25,240 its members. And it is coherent on the, you 612 00:47:25,240 --> 00:47:29,120 don't have this mess where all 27 need to agree on, on 613 00:47:29,120 --> 00:47:33,760 everything, which leads to paralysis and so on, where, you 614 00:47:33,760 --> 00:47:39,880 know, that would enable some sort of coherence strategy to 615 00:47:40,320 --> 00:47:42,320 emerge from, from this whole thing. 616 00:47:42,320 --> 00:47:46,600 Because you have, you know, federal government deciding on 617 00:47:46,600 --> 00:47:49,200 the top, on the, you know, this is our way. 618 00:47:49,200 --> 00:47:56,320 This is the European way. We, we, we go for it or you have 619 00:47:56,320 --> 00:48:03,600 less Europe where, you know, you give back some of the 620 00:48:03,600 --> 00:48:08,920 sovereignty that was taken away from European nations to them. 621 00:48:08,920 --> 00:48:13,000 And then, you know, it's really countries which, which are, 622 00:48:13,000 --> 00:48:17,080 which are in charge. So this is, you know, nations 623 00:48:17,080 --> 00:48:21,320 with their their sovereignty being able to to decide most 624 00:48:21,320 --> 00:48:23,880 things. But the current sort of mix of 625 00:48:23,880 --> 00:48:28,760 both is, is clearly very messy and and doesn't work. 626 00:48:28,760 --> 00:48:33,040 So, you know, like it's the the famous Kissinger sentence 627 00:48:33,320 --> 00:48:34,640 Europe. Who do I call? 628 00:48:35,720 --> 00:48:38,920 There is no one you call. It's it's just, it's just a 629 00:48:38,920 --> 00:48:41,640 mess. You don't know who who to speak 630 00:48:41,640 --> 00:48:46,320 with, who speaks for Europe. Like Michael yesterday on on his 631 00:48:46,320 --> 00:48:50,560 way back from from from China, he was behaving as if he was 632 00:48:50,560 --> 00:48:52,160 picking for Europe, but he doesn't. 633 00:48:52,520 --> 00:48:56,440 Van der Leyen often acts as if she speaks for Europe, but she 634 00:48:56,440 --> 00:49:00,840 doesn't, she doesn't have any power to speak for Europe, 635 00:49:00,840 --> 00:49:06,160 especially on foreign affairs. You know, it's, it's just weird 636 00:49:06,280 --> 00:49:09,960 on, on you arrive at the stage where it's just weak on the 637 00:49:10,680 --> 00:49:16,600 without, without advice on the reduced to, you know, having to 638 00:49:16,600 --> 00:49:20,000 look, you know, pathetic as it as it does today. 639 00:49:20,560 --> 00:49:26,400 So, yeah, I think it's either or either you you really build a 640 00:49:26,800 --> 00:49:30,040 concrete European project, which is, you know, actually a 641 00:49:30,040 --> 00:49:34,360 country, a federation and so on, or you're like, OK, we, we went 642 00:49:34,360 --> 00:49:38,440 too far with Europe. Let's give back their advice to 643 00:49:38,640 --> 00:49:41,120 to European nations on on some of their power. 644 00:49:45,720 --> 00:49:52,800 So do do you think there's any hope for either the European 645 00:49:52,800 --> 00:49:59,960 elite or the French elite in particular to have adopt A more 646 00:49:59,960 --> 00:50:02,440 realistic approach in dealing with China? 647 00:50:02,440 --> 00:50:05,840 Because right now, as you mentioned earlier, the their 648 00:50:05,840 --> 00:50:09,920 expectations in their dealing with China totally does not, 649 00:50:09,920 --> 00:50:12,240 does not match reality on the ground. 650 00:50:13,560 --> 00:50:17,720 What, what what would it take in your opinion, would make them to 651 00:50:17,720 --> 00:50:20,880 come, to come to a grip with a reality? 652 00:50:27,800 --> 00:50:33,560 So first of all, I think that people in France actually are 653 00:50:33,560 --> 00:50:38,800 more pragmatic than we sometimes assume. 654 00:50:39,600 --> 00:50:43,520 But I think there is a lot of fear of speaking out as I was 655 00:50:43,520 --> 00:50:49,560 speaking about the this sort of intellectual heaviness on, on 656 00:50:49,680 --> 00:50:51,880 the social consequences if you speak out. 657 00:50:51,880 --> 00:50:56,640 But when you speak with the average person, they're actually 658 00:50:56,640 --> 00:51:01,080 quite, I mean, not always of course, but they remain fairly 659 00:51:01,080 --> 00:51:02,800 pragmatic. So let me just give you an 660 00:51:02,800 --> 00:51:06,080 example. I just wrote a book on China, on 661 00:51:06,240 --> 00:51:10,160 democracy in China, on the ID for the book didn't come from 662 00:51:10,160 --> 00:51:12,640 me. It came from a friend of mine 663 00:51:12,640 --> 00:51:15,920 who is educated in the best cruise in France and he's a 664 00:51:15,920 --> 00:51:21,960 partner of Mackenzie in France, and he's never been to China. 665 00:51:22,440 --> 00:51:26,320 But on his own, independently, always being in France, he came 666 00:51:26,320 --> 00:51:29,960 to the conclusion that, you know, China was a democracy and 667 00:51:30,400 --> 00:51:33,520 maybe even more democratic than France on that case, very 668 00:51:33,520 --> 00:51:37,840 educated, best cruise in France, you know, top job McKinsey and 669 00:51:37,840 --> 00:51:40,560 Swan. So it shows that it's possible 670 00:51:40,560 --> 00:51:47,240 those people exist, right? So it's about changing, changing 671 00:51:47,240 --> 00:51:50,280 sort of the I don't think it will take much. 672 00:51:50,640 --> 00:51:55,560 The DNA is there. Some of the right ideas are in 673 00:51:55,560 --> 00:51:59,240 people's mind. It's, it's about lifting the, 674 00:51:59,680 --> 00:52:05,160 the, the heaviness that's, that's in the, in the mainstream 675 00:52:05,160 --> 00:52:10,400 on, on sort of liberating people to, you know, be more pragmatic 676 00:52:10,400 --> 00:52:17,080 on ridiculing the, the ideology which so many people can see is, 677 00:52:17,400 --> 00:52:19,880 is ridiculed anyway. But it's just, it's taken 678 00:52:19,880 --> 00:52:22,680 seriously right now. And so no one can say it's 679 00:52:22,680 --> 00:52:26,960 ridiculous. But if, if people started to say 680 00:52:26,960 --> 00:52:32,240 so, then I think things could change quite, quite fast. 681 00:52:33,320 --> 00:52:35,880 Maybe I'm too optimistic, but I think so. 682 00:52:36,960 --> 00:52:41,800 I, I, I like to leave on the optimistic note and that that it 683 00:52:41,800 --> 00:52:46,440 does offer a glimmer of hope. What is there any other topic 684 00:52:46,440 --> 00:52:49,880 that that you wish to discuss today that we have not covered 685 00:52:50,640 --> 00:52:53,400 Arnold? No, I think, I mean, when when 686 00:52:53,400 --> 00:52:57,080 it comes to macro and France, that's that's sort of, I guess 687 00:52:57,080 --> 00:53:00,840 the other big thing these days is the national security 688 00:53:01,560 --> 00:53:07,040 strategy of the US But you know, that would be another hour or so 689 00:53:07,040 --> 00:53:09,040 to discuss it. It's a it's a big thing. 690 00:53:10,120 --> 00:53:14,200 So yeah, maybe there you go. Next opportunity to come back on 691 00:53:14,200 --> 00:53:16,280 your contest. Yeah, exactly. 692 00:53:16,320 --> 00:53:19,560 Next episode next episode we're going to have Arnold Bertrand 693 00:53:19,560 --> 00:53:24,280 back on my show so we can go over the latest published US 694 00:53:24,280 --> 00:53:27,600 National Security papers because that's very interesting because 695 00:53:27,600 --> 00:53:31,960 you kind of lay out this. There's a new strategic priority 696 00:53:32,000 --> 00:53:36,240 of United States and, and it's kind of drastic departure. 697 00:53:36,240 --> 00:53:40,680 As you pointed out in your tweet from the past, when you know US 698 00:53:41,520 --> 00:53:44,880 and, and there's there's less ideological language, you know 699 00:53:45,240 --> 00:53:48,800 talking about spreading democracy and and and and 700 00:53:48,800 --> 00:53:55,400 values. It's very more realist take on 701 00:53:56,320 --> 00:53:58,520 international relations and geopolitics. 702 00:53:58,840 --> 00:54:01,440 And yeah, we, but unfortunately, where are the? 703 00:54:02,120 --> 00:54:04,920 Interestingly, actually, yeah, yeah. 704 00:54:04,920 --> 00:54:08,480 Just interestingly, the there is still some ideological language, 705 00:54:08,480 --> 00:54:11,400 but not towards China or Russia anymore, but towards Europe. 706 00:54:12,680 --> 00:54:15,880 So it's kind of shifted. That's quite that's quite funny. 707 00:54:17,280 --> 00:54:20,760 Yeah, well, OK, that that is a whole episode by itself. 708 00:54:20,760 --> 00:54:24,360 So, so so look forward to that. I'm going to have Arnold back to 709 00:54:24,360 --> 00:54:27,080 discuss that because that is a very important topic. 710 00:54:27,720 --> 00:54:30,840 And for people who want to follow you Are Arnold your work? 711 00:54:30,840 --> 00:54:37,400 Where would they go? I mean on Twitter, on sub stack, 712 00:54:37,600 --> 00:54:40,040 Arno Bertrand, just my name so it's easy. 713 00:54:41,560 --> 00:54:42,800 OK. Well, thank you. 714 00:54:42,800 --> 00:54:45,600 Thank you very much Arnold, for making the time to speak to us. 715 00:54:45,920 --> 00:54:48,600 Thank you for. People for people are listening. 716 00:54:48,600 --> 00:54:51,360 Thank you for tuning in. Until next time, bye bye.