1
00:00:00,200 --> 00:00:05,200
If you if you flipped a coin 
every single time you drove past

2
00:00:05,200 --> 00:00:07,760
one of those for sale signs in 
your neighborhood. 

3
00:00:07,960 --> 00:00:09,560
Right, which feel like they're 
everywhere lately. 

4
00:00:09,680 --> 00:00:11,680
Yeah, exactly. 
They are everywhere. 

5
00:00:11,880 --> 00:00:15,120
But if you flipped a coin, that 
coin toss is basically as 

6
00:00:15,120 --> 00:00:17,520
accurate as the actual chance 
that the house will sell. 

7
00:00:17,600 --> 00:00:20,240
Which is just a staggering thing
to think about. 

8
00:00:20,240 --> 00:00:22,120
It's wild. 
It's 44%. 

9
00:00:22,120 --> 00:00:26,440
That is the actual failure rate 
of UK homes listed over the past

10
00:00:26,440 --> 00:00:29,000
three years. 
Yeah, OK, let's unpack this. 

11
00:00:29,000 --> 00:00:32,800
Because if, you know, nearly 
half of all homes failing to 

12
00:00:32,800 --> 00:00:35,920
find a buyer doesn't totally 
shatter your assumptions about 

13
00:00:35,920 --> 00:00:38,080
buying a house. 
I mean nothing will, right? 

14
00:00:38,360 --> 00:00:40,560
It really forces reality check. 
It really does. 

15
00:00:40,920 --> 00:00:44,200
So today for this deep dive we 
are looking at this incredibly 

16
00:00:44,200 --> 00:00:47,960
eye opening report from Zoopla. 
It's researched by Lisa Isaacs 

17
00:00:48,200 --> 00:00:51,720
and it's literally titled Half 
of UK Homes failed to sell. 

18
00:00:52,120 --> 00:00:55,280
Very blunt title. 
Very blunt, and sitting right 

19
00:00:55,280 --> 00:00:58,400
next to it on the table today is
this incredibly surreal image 

20
00:00:58,720 --> 00:01:00,760
from our sources. 
It's perfectly captures the 

21
00:01:00,760 --> 00:01:02,760
current madness of the housing 
market. 

22
00:01:02,760 --> 00:01:04,800
Oh, the balloon one. 
I love this image. 

23
00:01:05,000 --> 00:01:07,760
Yes, it's this bewildered buyer,
right? 

24
00:01:07,760 --> 00:01:10,560
He's scratching his head, 
looking at a literal house 

25
00:01:10,680 --> 00:01:13,160
floating away into the sky. 
It's being carried by this giant

26
00:01:13,160 --> 00:01:15,520
bunch of colorful balloons. 
Like the movie? 

27
00:01:15,560 --> 00:01:19,720
Up, exactly like up and down on 
the grass firmly planted in the 

28
00:01:19,720 --> 00:01:23,520
ground, is a real estate sign 
that just demands asking price 

29
00:01:23,800 --> 00:01:28,240
£750,000. 
Meanwhile, there's a signpost 

30
00:01:28,240 --> 00:01:31,320
pointing to things like seller's
expectations in One Direction 

31
00:01:31,520 --> 00:01:34,600
and market reality in another. 
Just a perfect visual metaphor. 

32
00:01:34,600 --> 00:01:36,880
It is. 
So our mission today is to 

33
00:01:36,880 --> 00:01:38,840
basically sever the strings on 
those balloons. 

34
00:01:38,960 --> 00:01:41,800
We want to army with the 
investigative tools and 

35
00:01:41,840 --> 00:01:45,000
honestly, the psychological 
insights you need to navigate a 

36
00:01:45,000 --> 00:01:47,920
market where buyers are 
rightfully cautious and sellers 

37
00:01:47,920 --> 00:01:50,640
are, well, they're holding out 
for an absolute fantasy. 

38
00:01:50,760 --> 00:01:54,040
What's fascinating here is that 
the 44% failure rate, you know, 

39
00:01:54,040 --> 00:01:56,480
it isn't just a symptom of a 
slow market. 

40
00:01:56,840 --> 00:02:00,880
It is a glaring indicator of a 
massive systemic disconnect. 

41
00:02:00,880 --> 00:02:04,000
I mean, for decades, buyers have
been totally conditioned to view

42
00:02:04,000 --> 00:02:07,320
the asking price as this 
rigorous objective metric. 

43
00:02:07,360 --> 00:02:08,880
Yeah. 
Like it's a scientific fact. 

44
00:02:09,080 --> 00:02:12,600
Exactly. 
We just assume there's a 

45
00:02:12,600 --> 00:02:15,880
mathematical formula behind it, 
or some surveyor has 

46
00:02:15,880 --> 00:02:18,880
meticulously calculated the 
value based on structural 

47
00:02:18,880 --> 00:02:20,760
integrity and land value and all
that. 

48
00:02:20,800 --> 00:02:22,240
Right. 
You think someone in a hard hat 

49
00:02:22,240 --> 00:02:26,000
did some complex math? 
But the reality, as this Zoopla 

50
00:02:26,000 --> 00:02:30,000
research so clearly exposes, is 
that the asking price has become

51
00:02:30,000 --> 00:02:32,360
completely untethered from 
gravity. 

52
00:02:32,760 --> 00:02:36,120
The market is transitioning. 
We're moving out of this era 

53
00:02:36,360 --> 00:02:40,880
where cheap borrowing just mask 
all these unrealistic 

54
00:02:40,880 --> 00:02:43,080
expectations. 
Because money was essentially 

55
00:02:43,080 --> 00:02:44,280
free for a while. 
Right. 

56
00:02:44,280 --> 00:02:47,200
And now we're in an environment 
that is strictly governed by 

57
00:02:47,200 --> 00:02:49,520
affordability. 
And that structural shift is so 

58
00:02:49,520 --> 00:02:52,040
crucial to understand. 
We're essentially looking at a 

59
00:02:52,040 --> 00:02:55,040
scenario where the seller's 
expectations are like floating 

60
00:02:55,040 --> 00:02:58,080
up in the clouds fueled by 
yesterday's low interest rates, 

61
00:02:59,240 --> 00:03:02,160
while the buyer's standing on 
the ground dealing with today's 

62
00:03:02,200 --> 00:03:05,120
actual mirgage realities. 
The ground is much harsher now. 

63
00:03:05,160 --> 00:03:07,680
It is, and that just brings me 
back to that image from the 

64
00:03:07,680 --> 00:03:10,600
source material. 
The house literally lifting off 

65
00:03:10,600 --> 00:03:13,120
the ground on balloons is such a
potent visual. 

66
00:03:13,120 --> 00:03:15,840
It really is. 
Because seeing that house 

67
00:03:15,840 --> 00:03:19,560
floating away just perfectly 
captures the asking price. 

68
00:03:19,560 --> 00:03:21,760
Yeah. 
It makes me wonder, you know, if

69
00:03:21,760 --> 00:03:24,840
nearly half of all homes aren't 
selling, are we looking at a 

70
00:03:24,840 --> 00:03:27,760
fundamentally broken market? 
Or is this just an epidemic of 

71
00:03:27,760 --> 00:03:30,640
broken expectations? 
It is overwhelmingly the latter.

72
00:03:30,720 --> 00:03:34,240
I mean, it's driven by this 
deeply flawed psychological 

73
00:03:34,240 --> 00:03:37,600
framework, and the Zoopra 
research digs into the actual 

74
00:03:37,600 --> 00:03:40,320
motivations behind these 
inflated asking prices. 

75
00:03:40,320 --> 00:03:42,840
And that's where it gets crazy. 
It does. 

76
00:03:43,000 --> 00:03:46,040
This is where the data becomes 
almost painfully human. 

77
00:03:46,360 --> 00:03:49,880
More than one in five sellers 
openly admitted, like they just 

78
00:03:49,880 --> 00:03:53,920
said it out loud, that they base
their asking price entirely on 

79
00:03:53,920 --> 00:03:56,120
the amount of money they need to
buy their next home. 

80
00:03:56,600 --> 00:03:59,640
I have to stop you there because
the logic of that is just wild. 

81
00:04:00,000 --> 00:04:03,880
The idea that oh, if I need 
£700,000 to buy my next dream 

82
00:04:03,880 --> 00:04:07,960
home then my current house must 
magically be worth £700,000 is 

83
00:04:07,960 --> 00:04:10,520
completely irrational. 
It's basically magical thinking,

84
00:04:10,560 --> 00:04:12,520
yes. 
It's like it's like trying to 

85
00:04:12,520 --> 00:04:15,680
sell my beat up used car and 
pricing it based on the sticker 

86
00:04:15,680 --> 00:04:17,480
price of the brand new luxury 
SUVI. 

87
00:04:17,480 --> 00:04:19,360
Want to buy next? 
Which no one would ever accept. 

88
00:04:19,920 --> 00:04:23,520
No, the market doesn't care 
about my luxury SUV dreams. 

89
00:04:24,360 --> 00:04:27,440
But the report points out that 
there's actually a generational 

90
00:04:27,440 --> 00:04:30,400
divide in who falls into this 
trap, right? 

91
00:04:31,160 --> 00:04:34,080
Yeah, if we connect this to the 
bigger picture, the generational

92
00:04:34,080 --> 00:04:37,520
divide makes perfect sense, even
if the logic itself is flawed. 

93
00:04:37,920 --> 00:04:40,960
Younger sellers are 
significantly more prone to this

94
00:04:40,960 --> 00:04:43,360
overpricing behavior. 
Because they're trying to move 

95
00:04:43,360 --> 00:04:44,560
up. 
Exactly. 

96
00:04:44,760 --> 00:04:48,200
They are actively trying to 
climb the property ladder. 

97
00:04:48,360 --> 00:04:51,160
They want to trade up to that 
larger family home and to 

98
00:04:51,160 --> 00:04:54,800
satisfy the bank's loan to value
requirements for that next tier 

99
00:04:54,800 --> 00:04:57,560
of housing. 
They desperately need maximum 

100
00:04:57,560 --> 00:04:59,120
equity from their current 
property. 

101
00:04:59,560 --> 00:05:01,520
So they just inflate the price 
and hope someone pays it. 

102
00:05:01,560 --> 00:05:03,600
Yeah. 
They basically reverse engineer 

103
00:05:03,600 --> 00:05:06,720
the asking price based on their 
future mortgage application. 

104
00:05:07,080 --> 00:05:10,120
Whereas older sellers, typically
downsizers, they usually own 

105
00:05:10,120 --> 00:05:13,320
their homes outright, right? 
Or they have substantial equity 

106
00:05:13,320 --> 00:05:15,800
built up over decades. 
They aren't sweating the margins

107
00:05:15,800 --> 00:05:16,520
as much. 
Right. 

108
00:05:16,520 --> 00:05:20,320
They simply do not face that 
same intense, immediate pressure

109
00:05:20,320 --> 00:05:23,320
to squeeze every last imaginary 
penny out of a buyer. 

110
00:05:23,440 --> 00:05:27,200
But knowing that a seller is 
just, you know, trying to fund 

111
00:05:27,200 --> 00:05:30,680
their own upward mobility, that 
doesn't make the price real. 

112
00:05:30,880 --> 00:05:32,600
No, not at all. 
I mean, we're essentially 

113
00:05:32,600 --> 00:05:34,440
talking about the endowment 
effect here, right? 

114
00:05:34,440 --> 00:05:38,040
That psychological bias where 
people overvalue something 

115
00:05:38,040 --> 00:05:41,440
simply because they own it. 
That combined with anchoring. 

116
00:05:41,560 --> 00:05:45,680
Oh right, like they see a 
neighbors house listed for some 

117
00:05:46,080 --> 00:05:47,680
absurd price. 
Exactly. 

118
00:05:47,680 --> 00:05:50,400
Even if the neighbor's house 
never actually sells, that 

119
00:05:50,400 --> 00:05:52,520
absurd number becomes their 
baseline. 

120
00:05:52,600 --> 00:05:55,320
It's contagious delusion. 
That is exactly the 

121
00:05:55,320 --> 00:05:58,400
psychological mechanism at play,
and it totally explains why the 

122
00:05:58,400 --> 00:06:01,680
market stalls. 
Markets do not and they cannot 

123
00:06:01,680 --> 00:06:04,200
reward personal financial need. 
They just don't care. 

124
00:06:04,320 --> 00:06:06,440
Right. 
They reward evidence a 

125
00:06:06,440 --> 00:06:09,320
property's true value is 
determined by recent comparable 

126
00:06:09,320 --> 00:06:13,280
sales, it's actual physical 
condition, local demand, lease 

127
00:06:13,280 --> 00:06:16,800
lengths and, crucially, mortgage
affordability. 

128
00:06:16,800 --> 00:06:18,840
Which has completely changed in 
the last couple of years. 

129
00:06:18,840 --> 00:06:21,320
Radically changed. 
Today's buyers are operating 

130
00:06:21,320 --> 00:06:23,520
under much heavier financial 
consequences. 

131
00:06:23,840 --> 00:06:28,120
The era of the sub 2% mortgage 
is entirely over, so a buyer 

132
00:06:28,120 --> 00:06:31,400
simply cannot afford to 
subsidize a seller's lifestyle 

133
00:06:31,400 --> 00:06:34,520
upgrade because the monthly cost
of doing that is now 

134
00:06:34,520 --> 00:06:37,040
prohibitively high. 
OK, here's where it gets really 

135
00:06:37,040 --> 00:06:39,360
interesting. 
Because if sellers are operating

136
00:06:39,360 --> 00:06:42,400
under these delusions of 
grandeur, right, anchored to 

137
00:06:42,400 --> 00:06:44,720
these numbers they just 
completely made-up to fund their

138
00:06:44,720 --> 00:06:49,000
next purchase, why do buyers 
ever validate? 

139
00:06:49,000 --> 00:06:51,360
It that is a big question. 
Why do we fall for it? 

140
00:06:51,880 --> 00:06:54,840
Because the sources point a 
massive finger at our over 

141
00:06:54,840 --> 00:06:58,640
reliance on technology, 
specifically automated online 

142
00:06:58,640 --> 00:07:01,040
estimates. 
The famous online algorithms, 

143
00:07:01,080 --> 00:07:02,800
yeah. 
But I'm going to push back on 

144
00:07:02,800 --> 00:07:05,600
this a little bit. 
In a digital age driven by big 

145
00:07:05,600 --> 00:07:08,800
data, why shouldn't I trust an 
online algorithm? 

146
00:07:08,800 --> 00:07:11,240
I hear this all the time. 
I mean it is aggregating 

147
00:07:11,240 --> 00:07:13,880
millions of data points right? 
It's cross referencing Land 

148
00:07:13,880 --> 00:07:17,240
Registry records instantly. 
As a buyer, if the algorithm 

149
00:07:17,240 --> 00:07:22,280
says a house is worth £550,000 
and the seller wants 550,000 

150
00:07:22,280 --> 00:07:25,560
lbs, aren't I taking a massive 
risk by assuming my gut feeling 

151
00:07:25,560 --> 00:07:27,160
is more accurate than a 
supercomputer? 

152
00:07:27,280 --> 00:07:29,880
You are raising a very, very 
common defense of these 

153
00:07:29,880 --> 00:07:33,280
platforms, but it fundamentally 
misunderstands how these 

154
00:07:33,280 --> 00:07:37,640
automated valuation models, or 
Avms, actually work in practice.

155
00:07:37,880 --> 00:07:40,600
Break that down for me. 
The algorithm is essentially 

156
00:07:40,600 --> 00:07:43,520
just using indexation. 
It takes the last known sale 

157
00:07:43,520 --> 00:07:46,760
price of that specific property 
and applies the average 

158
00:07:46,760 --> 00:07:49,800
percentage growth of the broader
local area over time. 

159
00:07:49,800 --> 00:07:51,520
So it's just a trend line. 
Exactly. 

160
00:07:51,840 --> 00:07:55,400
But houses are not identical 
stocks on a trading floor. 

161
00:07:55,400 --> 00:07:58,880
They're incredibly heterogeneous
physical assets. 

162
00:07:59,440 --> 00:08:02,680
Trusting an algorithm to price a
specific house without seeing 

163
00:08:02,680 --> 00:08:07,120
inside it is frankly like asking
a doctor to diagnose your health

164
00:08:07,120 --> 00:08:09,280
condition solely by looking at 
your post code. 

165
00:08:09,320 --> 00:08:10,840
Wow, OK that makes perfect 
sense. 

166
00:08:11,400 --> 00:08:13,280
The computer only knows the 
broad trend. 

167
00:08:13,280 --> 00:08:15,120
It doesn't know the physical 
reality on the ground. 

168
00:08:15,120 --> 00:08:17,120
Precisely. 
The algorithm is completely 

169
00:08:17,120 --> 00:08:19,400
blind to the physical reality of
the property. 

170
00:08:19,600 --> 00:08:22,760
It cannot assess the internal 
condition, it doesn't know the 

171
00:08:22,760 --> 00:08:26,000
quality of the alterations. 
I mean, was that rear extension 

172
00:08:26,000 --> 00:08:28,080
built by a certified 
professional or is it a 

173
00:08:28,080 --> 00:08:31,440
structurally compromised botched
DIY job? 

174
00:08:31,440 --> 00:08:33,440
The algorithm has no idea. 
None. 

175
00:08:34,080 --> 00:08:37,280
It misses least complications, 
legal irregularities, 

176
00:08:37,280 --> 00:08:42,120
environmental issues, and most 
critically, an algorithm cannot 

177
00:08:42,120 --> 00:08:44,240
measure hyperlocal buyer 
sentiment. 

178
00:08:44,520 --> 00:08:47,840
It just assumes a static perfect
world. 

179
00:08:47,960 --> 00:08:50,720
Right, like you can't see the 
massive water stain on the 

180
00:08:50,720 --> 00:08:52,720
ceiling in the back bedroom. 
Exactly. 

181
00:08:52,720 --> 00:08:55,600
And it definitely not smell the 
damp in the hallway. 

182
00:08:55,600 --> 00:08:57,560
Which actually brings us to 
something terrifying in the 

183
00:08:57,560 --> 00:08:59,840
source material, these hidden 
money pits. 

184
00:09:00,160 --> 00:09:03,280
There's the distinct correlation
mentioned between sellers who 

185
00:09:03,280 --> 00:09:06,040
overpriced and sellers who 
neglect their homes. 

186
00:09:06,040 --> 00:09:08,680
Yes. 
And this is a crucial defense 

187
00:09:08,680 --> 00:09:11,680
mechanism for you as a buyer to 
understand property condition 

188
00:09:11,680 --> 00:09:14,320
does not remain static. 
No things break. 

189
00:09:14,400 --> 00:09:17,240
They break, they deteriorate, 
and deferred maintenance 

190
00:09:17,240 --> 00:09:20,320
compounds exponentially. 
The Zoopla report highlights 

191
00:09:20,320 --> 00:09:22,800
that sellers who intend to move,
especially those holding out for

192
00:09:22,800 --> 00:09:25,800
super ambitious prices to fund 
that move, have very likely 

193
00:09:25,800 --> 00:09:27,520
delayed significant maintenance 
work. 

194
00:09:27,680 --> 00:09:29,880
Because in their minds, they're 
already gone. 

195
00:09:30,120 --> 00:09:32,280
Exactly. 
They view the property as 

196
00:09:32,280 --> 00:09:35,720
someone else's future problem. 
They tolerate the friction of a 

197
00:09:35,720 --> 00:09:39,080
tired heating system or, you 
know, a deteriorating roof 

198
00:09:39,240 --> 00:09:42,120
because mentally they are 
already living in their next 

199
00:09:42,120 --> 00:09:44,680
house. 
So the uninformed buyer looks at

200
00:09:44,680 --> 00:09:48,000
the algorithm, says hey, the 
computer says 550,000 lbs. 

201
00:09:48,440 --> 00:09:51,640
They agreed to the inflated 
asking price and they instantly 

202
00:09:51,640 --> 00:09:54,000
inherit just a cascade of 
liability. 

203
00:09:54,000 --> 00:09:56,800
A nightmare of liability. 
The sources list them out right.

204
00:09:57,080 --> 00:10:00,280
Aging roofs, outdated electrics,
poor insulation, hidden 

205
00:10:00,280 --> 00:10:03,200
dampness, deteriorating windows,
structural movement. 

206
00:10:03,200 --> 00:10:06,080
It adds up so fast. 
You overpay on day one and on 

207
00:10:06,080 --> 00:10:10,520
day 2 you were hit with a 40,000
LB repair bill just to make the 

208
00:10:10,520 --> 00:10:12,880
house habitable. 
And that is the ultimate trap of

209
00:10:12,880 --> 00:10:15,360
the modern housing market. 
You are not just over kissing 

210
00:10:15,360 --> 00:10:17,880
for the bricks, you are 
inadvertently financing the 

211
00:10:17,880 --> 00:10:21,440
seller's years of neglect. 
That is such a harsh reality. 

212
00:10:21,440 --> 00:10:23,960
But it's true. 
This is why you must shift from 

213
00:10:23,960 --> 00:10:27,160
being an optimistic consumer to 
a forensic investigator. 

214
00:10:27,280 --> 00:10:30,040
When you tour a property, you 
shouldn't be marveling at the 

215
00:10:30,040 --> 00:10:32,800
lovely staging furniture. 
Don't look at the throw pillows.

216
00:10:32,960 --> 00:10:35,480
Ignore the pillows. 
You should be looking for the 

217
00:10:35,480 --> 00:10:38,560
structural realities that the 
algorithm totally missed. 

218
00:10:38,960 --> 00:10:42,240
What genuine, documented 
improvements have actually been 

219
00:10:42,240 --> 00:10:45,320
made to justify the huge price 
increase since the house was 

220
00:10:45,320 --> 00:10:48,000
last sold? 
That requires a total mindset 

221
00:10:48,000 --> 00:10:49,600
shift for most. 
People, it does. 

222
00:10:49,800 --> 00:10:52,520
But becoming that forensic 
investigator hits a massive 

223
00:10:52,520 --> 00:10:55,640
cultural hurdle, doesn't it? 
Especially in Britain, the idea 

224
00:10:55,640 --> 00:10:59,240
of aggressively negotiating or 
literally demanding proof to 

225
00:10:59,240 --> 00:11:03,920
justify an asking price, it 
feels profoundly awkward. 

226
00:11:03,920 --> 00:11:06,120
Oh, people hate it. 
They absolutely dread it. 

227
00:11:06,120 --> 00:11:08,240
We treat buying a house like 
buying a coffee. 

228
00:11:08,520 --> 00:11:10,320
The price is on the menu, so you
just pay it. 

229
00:11:10,560 --> 00:11:13,280
We are so terrified of offending
the seller or seeming 

230
00:11:13,280 --> 00:11:16,520
disrespectful that we just 
quietly absorb the financial 

231
00:11:16,520 --> 00:11:18,040
hit. 
This raises an important 

232
00:11:18,040 --> 00:11:20,920
question, though. 
Why do we view an adherence to 

233
00:11:20,920 --> 00:11:23,480
market reality as an insult? 
Right. 

234
00:11:23,480 --> 00:11:25,560
It's just business. 
Negotiation is not 

235
00:11:25,560 --> 00:11:29,240
confrontational, it is essential
market behavior, and the hard 

236
00:11:29,240 --> 00:11:32,640
data from the Zoopla research 
should completely alleviate any 

237
00:11:32,640 --> 00:11:34,320
guilt you feel about 
negotiating. 

238
00:11:34,320 --> 00:11:39,120
The 53% stat, right? 
Yes, 53% of successful sellers 

239
00:11:39,120 --> 00:11:42,960
had to reduce their asking price
just to secure a buyer. 

240
00:11:43,200 --> 00:11:45,720
So over half of the people who 
actually managed to sell had to 

241
00:11:45,720 --> 00:11:48,400
swallow their pride and admit 
they were wrong about the price.

242
00:11:48,400 --> 00:11:50,320
Exactly. 
And on average, homes are 

243
00:11:50,320 --> 00:11:54,040
actually selling for 3.5% below 
the asking price. 

244
00:11:54,640 --> 00:11:57,680
But the most revealing statistic
here is the penalty for 

245
00:11:57,680 --> 00:11:59,320
overpricing in the 1st place. 
OK. 

246
00:11:59,680 --> 00:12:03,720
Pricing a home just 5% above the
local market level reduces the 

247
00:12:03,720 --> 00:12:06,440
likelihood of selling by 
approximately 5%. 

248
00:12:06,440 --> 00:12:08,080
Wait, wait. 
Let's dig into the mechanics of 

249
00:12:08,080 --> 00:12:09,600
that, because that feels 
significant. 

250
00:12:10,160 --> 00:12:14,480
Why does a relatively small 5% 
bump in price cause such a 

251
00:12:14,480 --> 00:12:17,560
direct proportional drop in the 
actual likelihood of selling? 

252
00:12:17,560 --> 00:12:19,000
It seems like a small bump. 
Yeah. 

253
00:12:19,040 --> 00:12:21,280
Is it just the buyers think, oh,
that's too expensive and they 

254
00:12:21,280 --> 00:12:23,400
walk away? 
It's much more structural than 

255
00:12:23,400 --> 00:12:25,560
just buyer psychology. 
It actually comes down to how 

256
00:12:25,560 --> 00:12:28,080
buyers search for properties on 
the major portals. 

257
00:12:28,080 --> 00:12:31,400
Oh, like right mover Zoopla. 
Right property websites use 

258
00:12:31,400 --> 00:12:35,280
rigid price brackets. 
You search up to 500,000 lbs or 

259
00:12:35,520 --> 00:12:37,880
up to 525,000 lbs. 
And so on. 

260
00:12:38,160 --> 00:12:43,440
So if a property's true market 
market value is say 495,000 lbs,

261
00:12:43,960 --> 00:12:48,800
but a seller insists on listing 
it for £515,000 just to give 

262
00:12:48,800 --> 00:12:51,840
themselves room to negotiate. 
They've just completely screwed 

263
00:12:51,840 --> 00:12:53,720
up their visibility. 
They have just committed 

264
00:12:53,720 --> 00:12:55,720
algorithmic suicide. 
Because they just bumped 

265
00:12:55,720 --> 00:12:57,000
themselves out of the search 
filter. 

266
00:12:57,000 --> 00:13:00,120
Exactly. 
The buyer with a £500,000 budget

267
00:13:00,200 --> 00:13:03,280
who is the actual target market 
for that house, yeah will 

268
00:13:03,280 --> 00:13:05,120
literally never even see the 
listing. 

269
00:13:05,200 --> 00:13:08,120
It just becomes invisible to the
very people most likely to buy. 

270
00:13:08,120 --> 00:13:10,840
It precisely they are hiding 
their own property from their 

271
00:13:10,840 --> 00:13:13,520
target audience and the buyers 
who do have a budget of 

272
00:13:13,520 --> 00:13:16,280
£525,000. 
They're going to expect a lot 

273
00:13:16,280 --> 00:13:18,480
more house. 
Exactly, they will view the 

274
00:13:18,480 --> 00:13:22,160
property immediately, recognize 
that it lacks the square footage

275
00:13:22,160 --> 00:13:26,400
or the high end finish of 
genuine 525,000 LB homes, and 

276
00:13:26,400 --> 00:13:28,920
they will reject it outright. 
Wow, so the house just 

277
00:13:28,920 --> 00:13:32,400
languishes on the market 
gathering digital dust entirely 

278
00:13:32,400 --> 00:13:35,600
because the seller tried to game
the system with a 5% premium? 

279
00:13:35,760 --> 00:13:38,400
So when I you know when I feel 
awkward about offering below 

280
00:13:38,400 --> 00:13:43,440
asking, I need to remember that 
a seller who priced at 5% over 

281
00:13:43,440 --> 00:13:46,440
the market has already 
mathematically penalized 

282
00:13:46,440 --> 00:13:48,200
themselves. 
They did it to themselves. 

283
00:13:48,600 --> 00:13:50,760
Right. 
I am not insulting them, I am 

284
00:13:50,760 --> 00:13:53,040
just bringing that floating 
house back down to earth. 

285
00:13:53,200 --> 00:13:56,720
Exactly. 
So practically speaking, how 

286
00:13:56,720 --> 00:14:00,080
does the rational investigative 
buyer actually do this? 

287
00:14:00,280 --> 00:14:02,480
You mentioned checking the Land 
Registry earlier. 

288
00:14:02,480 --> 00:14:05,800
Yes, the Land Registry is your 
most potent weapon here. 

289
00:14:06,120 --> 00:14:09,240
Do not rely on what an estate 
agent tells you similar 

290
00:14:09,240 --> 00:14:11,040
properties are worth. 
Because they work for the 

291
00:14:11,040 --> 00:14:12,280
seller. 
Exactly. 

292
00:14:12,400 --> 00:14:14,000
Pull the historical data 
yourself. 

293
00:14:14,040 --> 00:14:16,560
It's public record. 
See exactly what that specific 

294
00:14:16,560 --> 00:14:21,040
property sold for previously, 
then calculate the price per 

295
00:14:21,040 --> 00:14:25,200
square foot of recent completed 
sales on that exact St. 

296
00:14:25,200 --> 00:14:28,200
Real, actual completed sales, 
not asking prices. 

297
00:14:28,200 --> 00:14:32,400
Completed sales only. 
If the seller is asking for £400

298
00:14:32,400 --> 00:14:35,440
per square foot, but the last 
three houses on the exact same 

299
00:14:35,440 --> 00:14:39,480
St. actually completed at £350 
per square foot, you now have 

300
00:14:39,480 --> 00:14:41,840
mathematical leverage. 
You've got the receipts. 

301
00:14:41,840 --> 00:14:44,320
Yes. 
You aren't arguing an opinion, 

302
00:14:44,400 --> 00:14:47,960
you are presenting hard facts. 
And the source is heavily 

303
00:14:47,960 --> 00:14:49,720
emphasized. 
Looking closely at the time on 

304
00:14:49,720 --> 00:14:53,120
the market, too, Repeated 
relisting is flagged as a 

305
00:14:53,120 --> 00:14:54,600
massive warning sign. 
Oh. 

306
00:14:54,600 --> 00:14:58,200
Absolutely like. 
If a house is listed, taken 

307
00:14:58,200 --> 00:15:01,880
down, and then put back up a 
month later with a new agent, or

308
00:15:01,880 --> 00:15:05,240
if it just sits there for months
on end, that is a glaring sign 

309
00:15:05,240 --> 00:15:09,600
of unrealistic expectations. 
A prolonged time on the market 

310
00:15:09,600 --> 00:15:12,880
is the absolute clearest 
indicator of seller delusion. 

311
00:15:13,160 --> 00:15:16,080
It means they are deeply 
emotionally attached to a target

312
00:15:16,080 --> 00:15:18,800
figure that the market has 
continually, repeatedly 

313
00:15:18,800 --> 00:15:21,440
rejected. 
As an investigative buyer, you 

314
00:15:21,440 --> 00:15:24,600
need to track those listings. 
You look for the properties that

315
00:15:24,600 --> 00:15:27,760
have sat stagnant because 
eventually, if they genuinely 

316
00:15:27,760 --> 00:15:31,120
need to move, that attachment 
will break under the sheer 

317
00:15:31,120 --> 00:15:33,600
weight of market reality. 
They have to sell eventually. 

318
00:15:33,720 --> 00:15:35,920
Right. 
And you must arm yourself with a

319
00:15:35,960 --> 00:15:39,720
thorough, independent physical 
survey, not just the basic 

320
00:15:39,720 --> 00:15:41,240
mortgage valuation the bank 
does. 

321
00:15:41,440 --> 00:15:43,320
That's just to protect the 
bank's loan. 

322
00:15:43,440 --> 00:15:44,680
Right, you need someone looking 
out for you. 

323
00:15:45,000 --> 00:15:47,040
You need a full structural 
survey. 

324
00:15:47,120 --> 00:15:49,880
That document becomes your 
absolute road map for 

325
00:15:49,880 --> 00:15:53,160
negotiation. 
It quantifies exactly how much 

326
00:15:53,160 --> 00:15:55,720
that deferred maintenance we 
talked about is going to cost 

327
00:15:55,720 --> 00:15:57,400
you. 
So what does this all mean? 

328
00:15:58,240 --> 00:16:00,600
Let's distill this down so you 
can literally take it with you 

329
00:16:00,600 --> 00:16:05,360
into your next viewing. 
Never, ever confuse an asking 

330
00:16:05,360 --> 00:16:07,240
price with market value. 
Never. 

331
00:16:07,280 --> 00:16:10,720
They're just not synonyms, and 
asking price is a marketing 

332
00:16:10,720 --> 00:16:12,800
tool. 
It's heavily influenced by the 

333
00:16:12,800 --> 00:16:15,920
seller's desire to fund their 
next purchase, and it's often 

334
00:16:15,920 --> 00:16:19,080
enabled by algorithms that 
frankly, can't see the damp in 

335
00:16:19,080 --> 00:16:20,600
the walls. 
Spot on. 

336
00:16:20,760 --> 00:16:24,280
A property is only worth what an
informed, rational buyer is 

337
00:16:24,280 --> 00:16:27,520
willing to pay, and that should 
be based on historical Land 

338
00:16:27,520 --> 00:16:30,160
Registry evidence, the actual 
physical condition of the 

339
00:16:30,160 --> 00:16:32,840
property, and the current 
reality of mortgage borrowing 

340
00:16:32,840 --> 00:16:34,320
costs. 
Not fancy. 

341
00:16:34,360 --> 00:16:36,720
Right. 
It is not worth what the agent 

342
00:16:36,720 --> 00:16:39,160
flattered them with, and it is 
certainly not worth the price of

343
00:16:39,160 --> 00:16:42,400
the seller's next dream home. 
That is the ultimate defense 

344
00:16:42,400 --> 00:16:44,440
mechanism for navigating this 
landscape. 

345
00:16:44,440 --> 00:16:46,760
But you know, I want to leave 
you with one final provocative 

346
00:16:46,760 --> 00:16:48,680
thought that really builds on 
the psychology we've been 

347
00:16:48,680 --> 00:16:50,480
discussing today. 
OK, let's hear it. 

348
00:16:50,760 --> 00:16:54,400
We have explored how sellers get
anchored to these inflated 

349
00:16:54,400 --> 00:16:58,520
numbers right, and how prolonged
time on the market signals this 

350
00:16:58,520 --> 00:17:01,080
massive overpricing. 
Yeah, the digital dust. 

351
00:17:01,080 --> 00:17:03,400
Exactly. 
But consider the psychological 

352
00:17:03,400 --> 00:17:06,480
life cycle of that stubborn 
seller at month one. 

353
00:17:06,680 --> 00:17:08,440
They are completely 
uncompromising. 

354
00:17:08,480 --> 00:17:09,920
Right, they think they're 
sitting on a gold mine. 

355
00:17:10,119 --> 00:17:14,280
But by month 6, after repeated 
viewings with absolutely no 

356
00:17:14,280 --> 00:17:16,839
offers, the anxiety sets in. 
Oh, definitely. 

357
00:17:16,960 --> 00:17:20,880
If time on the market eventually
forces them to capitulate, does 

358
00:17:20,880 --> 00:17:25,040
an initially overpriced, 
stagnant house actually become 

359
00:17:25,040 --> 00:17:27,200
the best opportunity for a 
patient buyer? 

360
00:17:27,200 --> 00:17:29,320
Oh wow. 
Could simply identifying these 

361
00:17:29,320 --> 00:17:33,000
delusional listings, letting 
them languish and waiting out 

362
00:17:33,000 --> 00:17:35,840
the seller's psychological 
breaking point be the most 

363
00:17:35,840 --> 00:17:38,040
lucrative negotiation tactic of 
all? 

364
00:17:38,080 --> 00:17:39,720
That completely flips the 
script. 

365
00:17:40,040 --> 00:17:42,600
You literally let them float up 
there with their balloons, 

366
00:17:42,600 --> 00:17:45,680
totally untethered from reality.
You just sit on the grass and 

367
00:17:45,680 --> 00:17:46,400
wait. 
You just wait. 

368
00:17:46,560 --> 00:17:50,040
Eventually the helium runs out 
and when that balloon slowly 

369
00:17:50,040 --> 00:17:53,920
loses altitude and crashes back 
to Earth, you are standing there

370
00:17:54,360 --> 00:17:57,680
armed with your Land Registry 
data and your full structural 

371
00:17:57,680 --> 00:18:00,880
survey, ready to make a 
rational, evidence based offer. 

372
00:18:01,080 --> 00:18:03,040
Exactly. 
That is a brilliant way to look 

373
00:18:03,040 --> 00:18:05,520
at it, something for you to keep
a very close eye on the next 

374
00:18:05,520 --> 00:18:08,520
time you see a house that's been
sitting unsold on your favorite 

375
00:18:08,520 --> 00:18:11,640
property portal for months. 
Don't look at it as a reject. 

376
00:18:11,760 --> 00:18:14,400
Look at it as a balloon slowly 
running out of helium. 

377
00:18:14,640 --> 00:18:17,960
Keep your feet on the ground, 
stay investigative, and never 

378
00:18:17,960 --> 00:18:19,960
let an asking price dictate 
reality.