1 00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:01,720 Hello and welcome to the forecast. 2 00:00:01,880 --> 00:00:05,280 So Ukraine has agreed to a 30 day ceasefire, the American 3 00:00:05,280 --> 00:00:09,680 defence and intelligence is flowing again into Ukrainian 4 00:00:09,680 --> 00:00:12,920 defence forces and everyone is waiting to see what Vladimir 5 00:00:12,920 --> 00:00:15,920 Putin does. The phrase everyone is using 6 00:00:15,920 --> 00:00:20,760 from Washington to London to European capitals is the ball is 7 00:00:20,760 --> 00:00:23,760 in the Russian court. But what's likely to happen? 8 00:00:23,920 --> 00:00:27,160 What's it likely to mean? And will a ceasefire lead to a 9 00:00:27,160 --> 00:00:30,120 peace? Joining me from Kiev, the 10 00:00:30,160 --> 00:00:32,880 Ukrainian capital, our international editor, Lindsay 11 00:00:32,880 --> 00:00:34,480 Hills. Lindsay, there's there's lots 12 00:00:34,480 --> 00:00:38,440 that's confusing about this in that you would have thought in 13 00:00:38,440 --> 00:00:43,240 the past that if the Ukrainians were told to freeze the lines, 14 00:00:43,280 --> 00:00:45,920 having lost 20% of their territory, they would throw 15 00:00:45,920 --> 00:00:49,720 their hands up in horror. Yet they seem to be pleased at 16 00:00:49,760 --> 00:00:52,040 this. Can can you explain what people 17 00:00:52,040 --> 00:00:55,240 are thinking and saying? The most important thing about 18 00:00:55,240 --> 00:00:59,080 this is the rapprochement between UK, Ukraine and the 19 00:00:59,080 --> 00:01:01,840 United States. That is what this is all about 20 00:01:02,160 --> 00:01:05,160 because after that disastrous meeting in the Oval Office 21 00:01:05,160 --> 00:01:09,880 between President Zelensky and President Trump, and then the 22 00:01:09,880 --> 00:01:14,000 way that the US cut off intelligence and military aid to 23 00:01:14,000 --> 00:01:18,320 Ukraine, the Ukrainians knew that they had to scramble to get 24 00:01:18,320 --> 00:01:20,880 back into the Americans good books. 25 00:01:21,160 --> 00:01:24,960 And that is what this shows. Because the fact that there was 26 00:01:24,960 --> 00:01:30,240 a joint statement by Ukraine and the US saying they both agreed 27 00:01:30,240 --> 00:01:35,440 that there should be this 30 day ceasefire and that it was now up 28 00:01:35,440 --> 00:01:41,320 to the Russians to reciprocate and up to the Americans to get 29 00:01:41,480 --> 00:01:46,080 the Russians to agree to it. That in the cliche that Marco 30 00:01:46,080 --> 00:01:49,040 Rubio used puts the ball in the Russians court. 31 00:01:49,200 --> 00:01:52,200 And that is exactly where the Ukrainians want it to be at the 32 00:01:52,200 --> 00:01:54,440 moment. Do you think the Ukrainians 33 00:01:54,440 --> 00:01:58,080 think this process is actually going to lead to a ceasefire? 34 00:01:58,720 --> 00:02:00,400 I think that they're not quite sure. 35 00:02:00,720 --> 00:02:07,240 What they want is for it to become clear to the Americans 36 00:02:07,560 --> 00:02:10,440 that Russia is the obstacle, not them. 37 00:02:10,960 --> 00:02:16,880 That is how they see it. They say, look, we want an end 38 00:02:16,880 --> 00:02:21,920 to this war, but we have various terms, one of which is we want 39 00:02:21,960 --> 00:02:24,880 our country back. We want our sovereignty. 40 00:02:25,040 --> 00:02:29,120 We want our children back, the children who were abducted by 41 00:02:29,120 --> 00:02:32,480 the Russians and are being brought up in Russia under 42 00:02:32,480 --> 00:02:34,240 Russian rather than Ukrainian names. 43 00:02:34,400 --> 00:02:36,320 We want our prisoners of war back. 44 00:02:36,480 --> 00:02:38,320 There are all sorts of things that they want. 45 00:02:38,320 --> 00:02:41,200 But yes, they too want an end to the war. 46 00:02:41,480 --> 00:02:46,120 Whereas they think that President Trump has 47 00:02:46,160 --> 00:02:48,320 misunderstood the situation. And this is, of course, what 48 00:02:48,320 --> 00:02:50,920 President Zelensky was trying to explain in the Oval Office, 49 00:02:50,920 --> 00:02:53,120 which went so disastrously wrong. 50 00:02:53,600 --> 00:02:57,920 They think that what the Americans need to understand is 51 00:02:57,920 --> 00:03:02,600 that the problem is Russia and the fact that Russia wants to 52 00:03:02,600 --> 00:03:07,880 control Ukraine and not to allow it to have its own sovereignty. 53 00:03:08,080 --> 00:03:11,240 So that is what they are hoping, that this will lead to, a 54 00:03:11,240 --> 00:03:15,880 clarifying moment that I think they think is more likely than a 55 00:03:15,880 --> 00:03:18,200 ceasefire, at least one which might endure. 56 00:03:18,600 --> 00:03:21,960 From the Trump point of view, they will portray this as a 57 00:03:22,400 --> 00:03:26,360 enormous victory for Trump thinking because they will say, 58 00:03:26,360 --> 00:03:29,080 well, the trouble with the Ukrainians was they didn't 59 00:03:29,080 --> 00:03:31,120 really want peace. They weren't serious about 60 00:03:31,120 --> 00:03:33,400 peace. That's what that showdown in the 61 00:03:33,800 --> 00:03:38,160 Oval Office revealed and that we needed to bring them to heel by 62 00:03:38,160 --> 00:03:40,200 showing them just how tough we were. 63 00:03:40,360 --> 00:03:43,280 And now they have changed their minds and they are serious about 64 00:03:43,280 --> 00:03:46,040 peace. And that's why we can re engage. 65 00:03:46,400 --> 00:03:50,280 Do you think there has been any change in Ukrainian thinking 66 00:03:50,480 --> 00:03:53,480 since that disastrous meeting in the Oval Office? 67 00:03:53,480 --> 00:03:56,560 I mean, did it work in any way from the Trump point of view? 68 00:03:56,800 --> 00:03:59,400 Well, there's certainly been a change in thinking in terms of 69 00:03:59,800 --> 00:04:03,640 understanding how to deal with this American administration. 70 00:04:03,640 --> 00:04:07,320 Absolutely. They totally realised that the 71 00:04:07,320 --> 00:04:09,880 way they were trying to deal with the administration, 72 00:04:09,880 --> 00:04:14,320 particularly at the highest level, was a disaster and and 73 00:04:14,320 --> 00:04:17,240 would not work at all. Now in terms of what they 74 00:04:17,240 --> 00:04:21,440 actually want for Ukraine, which is an enduring peace with 75 00:04:21,440 --> 00:04:25,760 security guarantees, which will stop the Russians coming back 76 00:04:26,120 --> 00:04:30,320 and distorting Ukrainian politics, controlling Ukraine, 77 00:04:30,960 --> 00:04:35,720 making demands to keep Ukrainian territory, none of that has 78 00:04:35,720 --> 00:04:39,000 changed. But how you get to where they 79 00:04:39,000 --> 00:04:44,040 want to go and how you handle this administration, that has 80 00:04:44,240 --> 00:04:48,360 completely changed. And in the short term, I suppose 81 00:04:48,360 --> 00:04:51,920 you could say that the what should we call it, the Trump 82 00:04:51,920 --> 00:04:57,520 Doctrine has worked because they are working alongside the 83 00:04:57,520 --> 00:05:01,680 Americans now. And they are also extremely 84 00:05:01,680 --> 00:05:05,680 relieved that the Americans have agreed to switch back on the 85 00:05:05,680 --> 00:05:10,200 intelligence, including the including the Max, our satellite 86 00:05:10,200 --> 00:05:14,920 system, and get military aid back on back on track again. 87 00:05:15,200 --> 00:05:19,200 I suppose what I mean is, you know, the, the, the balls Trump 88 00:05:19,200 --> 00:05:21,360 analysis is they didn't want peace. 89 00:05:21,360 --> 00:05:22,760 They weren't prepared to compromise. 90 00:05:22,920 --> 00:05:26,000 Now they are. Is that a change that has really 91 00:05:26,000 --> 00:05:32,160 happened, or did Ukraine always know that in the final analysis, 92 00:05:32,720 --> 00:05:34,680 there would be a compromise on territory? 93 00:05:35,040 --> 00:05:37,600 We are nowhere near that. And that again, I think is one 94 00:05:37,600 --> 00:05:40,040 of the things which was misunderstood when when 95 00:05:40,040 --> 00:05:43,160 President Zelensky said to the Europeans that the end of the 96 00:05:43,160 --> 00:05:45,760 war is a long way off. And President Trump was furious 97 00:05:45,760 --> 00:05:48,720 about that because he wants to think that the end of the war is 98 00:05:48,720 --> 00:05:51,960 going to happen very quickly because that's what he decrees, 99 00:05:52,200 --> 00:05:55,400 you know, as if he had a magic wand and say, woof, it's all 100 00:05:55,400 --> 00:05:57,600 over. The Ukrainians understand very 101 00:05:57,600 --> 00:06:01,520 well that a 30 day ceasefire, even if it were to happen, is 102 00:06:01,520 --> 00:06:04,320 really not a lot. Both sides actually would rather 103 00:06:04,320 --> 00:06:07,480 like a 30 day ceasefire. I think give the soldiers a bit 104 00:06:07,480 --> 00:06:11,600 of a rest, you know, and then you can get preparing and 105 00:06:11,600 --> 00:06:14,600 planning for the further fighting that's to come during 106 00:06:14,600 --> 00:06:16,760 the fighting season, which is in the spring. 107 00:06:17,160 --> 00:06:23,040 It hasn't changed anything on what the Ukrainians want in the 108 00:06:23,040 --> 00:06:25,320 long term. Now, there are a lot of people 109 00:06:25,320 --> 00:06:29,400 within the Ukrainian government and military who know that they 110 00:06:29,400 --> 00:06:32,960 are not going to be able to get the territory back at the moment 111 00:06:33,040 --> 00:06:34,520 under the Ukrainian constitution. 112 00:06:34,760 --> 00:06:37,680 They are not going to and they cannot give away the territory 113 00:06:37,680 --> 00:06:39,520 and say that belongs to Russia now. 114 00:06:39,760 --> 00:06:44,560 But it's perfectly possible to say, OK, the lines stop here, 115 00:06:44,680 --> 00:06:47,760 it's frozen, but that is still our territory and we'll get it 116 00:06:47,760 --> 00:06:49,880 back one day. But of course, what the Russians 117 00:06:49,880 --> 00:06:51,680 are demanding is far more than that. 118 00:06:51,920 --> 00:06:54,840 They're saying they want a lot of territory which they don't 119 00:06:54,840 --> 00:06:57,640 control at the moment. I mean, there's even reports 120 00:06:57,640 --> 00:07:00,560 that they're saying that they want Odessa, they're trying to 121 00:07:00,560 --> 00:07:04,200 take as much as possible, and those are aligned. 122 00:07:04,200 --> 00:07:06,240 You know, they have maximalist demands. 123 00:07:06,480 --> 00:07:09,880 So the Ukrainians understand perfectly well that any kind of 124 00:07:09,880 --> 00:07:16,320 negotiation over a longer term peace is a very, very long and 125 00:07:16,320 --> 00:07:19,160 complex thing. It's not just a 30 day 126 00:07:19,160 --> 00:07:21,760 ceasefire. Now, from the Russian point of 127 00:07:21,760 --> 00:07:27,000 view, you know, there's a question as to why they why they 128 00:07:27,000 --> 00:07:30,080 would go along with this beyond the 30 day ceasefire. 129 00:07:30,320 --> 00:07:33,840 As you say, they may well say, well, the 30 day pause is quite 130 00:07:34,080 --> 00:07:37,880 useful for us, but but right now, particularly in the cursed 131 00:07:37,880 --> 00:07:40,360 region, they're doing pretty well. 132 00:07:41,440 --> 00:07:45,880 So, so, So what? What is in it for them to settle 133 00:07:45,920 --> 00:07:48,320 at this stage? Yeah, I think there's short, 134 00:07:48,320 --> 00:07:50,840 medium and long term. In the short term, I suspect 135 00:07:50,840 --> 00:07:54,440 that the Russians might try and spin this out for quite a while. 136 00:07:54,720 --> 00:07:57,840 I mean, they've said, you know, that they need to have a direct 137 00:07:57,840 --> 00:08:01,840 term contact with the White House before they're going to 138 00:08:01,840 --> 00:08:05,280 make any answer on this. And I think we're going to, you 139 00:08:05,280 --> 00:08:07,400 know, see quite a bit of backwards and forwards because 140 00:08:07,400 --> 00:08:12,360 in the coming days they are pushing the Ukrainians very hard 141 00:08:12,360 --> 00:08:16,120 out of curse, which is this small bit of Russian territory 142 00:08:16,400 --> 00:08:21,160 that the Ukrainians moved into and held part of since last 143 00:08:21,160 --> 00:08:22,080 summer. And it's. 144 00:08:22,160 --> 00:08:23,840 There, a big bargaining chip isn't. 145 00:08:23,880 --> 00:08:26,880 It yeah, it's a bargaining chip for the Ukrainians and I suspect 146 00:08:26,880 --> 00:08:30,640 it's a bargaining chip that they may soon lose because they are 147 00:08:30,640 --> 00:08:35,320 retreating and everyday we hear about more about the about the 148 00:08:35,679 --> 00:08:38,159 the Ukrainians having to to retreat. 149 00:08:38,559 --> 00:08:41,480 So it may be that that gets spun out. 150 00:08:41,640 --> 00:08:45,880 But then if you look in the medium term, the Russians are 151 00:08:45,880 --> 00:08:49,440 losing a lot of soldiers, a lot of people. 152 00:08:49,760 --> 00:08:52,760 And, you know, there's a question of how much longer they 153 00:08:52,760 --> 00:08:56,200 can carry on doing that for. And they are you losing a lot of 154 00:08:56,840 --> 00:08:59,960 equipment because the Ukrainians are in a defensive position at 155 00:08:59,960 --> 00:09:02,480 the moment and the Russians are trying to move forward. 156 00:09:02,480 --> 00:09:04,440 And when you're trying to move forward and when you're being 157 00:09:04,440 --> 00:09:08,040 proactive in that way, you often do have greater losses than the 158 00:09:08,040 --> 00:09:09,880 other side, which is just trying to hold the line. 159 00:09:10,040 --> 00:09:13,000 So in the medium term, I think some kind of ceasefire is quite 160 00:09:13,000 --> 00:09:18,120 useful for the Russians because they can use that to regroup, to 161 00:09:19,480 --> 00:09:21,760 get their weapons manufacture up. 162 00:09:22,000 --> 00:09:26,000 Maybe they would like to bring in and train more soldiers from 163 00:09:26,000 --> 00:09:28,760 other countries they've already got in ones from North Korea. 164 00:09:29,080 --> 00:09:32,560 So all of that, a pause in that way will be very helpful to the 165 00:09:32,560 --> 00:09:35,560 Russians. And in the long term, the issue 166 00:09:35,560 --> 00:09:38,920 of what are the Russians war aims, and this I think is where 167 00:09:38,920 --> 00:09:42,840 certainly President Trump appears to have not accepted or 168 00:09:42,840 --> 00:09:47,920 understood the war aim of Russia is to control Ukraine. 169 00:09:48,360 --> 00:09:51,760 That is what they want to do. Now, they have various ways of 170 00:09:51,760 --> 00:09:53,640 doing that. Militarily is one way. 171 00:09:53,640 --> 00:09:58,440 Politically is another way. So if they succeed in persuading 172 00:09:58,440 --> 00:10:03,080 President Trump that what Ukraine has to do is have 173 00:10:03,080 --> 00:10:07,360 elections six months after a ceasefire, there's all sorts of 174 00:10:07,360 --> 00:10:10,200 mischief they can do. The presidential election is one 175 00:10:10,200 --> 00:10:11,840 thing. What about local elections, 176 00:10:12,400 --> 00:10:14,880 Local elections in the territories they control, Local 177 00:10:14,880 --> 00:10:17,240 elections in the territories which are border where they 178 00:10:17,240 --> 00:10:19,560 control. It's all sorts of possibilities 179 00:10:19,560 --> 00:10:23,160 of bribing people and interfering and turning 180 00:10:23,160 --> 00:10:26,960 Ukrainians against each other. Because, you know, elections are 181 00:10:26,960 --> 00:10:30,080 always competitive, aren't they? And then you're not all fighting 182 00:10:30,080 --> 00:10:31,560 Russia, you're fighting each other. 183 00:10:31,800 --> 00:10:35,320 These are the kind of things that the Russians want to do. 184 00:10:35,640 --> 00:10:39,320 They want some kind of settlement that enables them to 185 00:10:39,320 --> 00:10:42,920 have power over Ukraine. That is their long term goal. 186 00:10:43,160 --> 00:10:46,560 I mean, you say that Putin is likely to string this out for a 187 00:10:46,560 --> 00:10:49,400 few days at least and that there'll be a negotiation over 188 00:10:49,400 --> 00:10:52,560 the ceasefire. What are his options beyond 189 00:10:52,560 --> 00:10:55,920 that? Well, his options are what they 190 00:10:55,920 --> 00:10:59,840 always are, to go into a negotiation where he has the 191 00:10:59,840 --> 00:11:04,040 advantage and where he will use every KGB trick in the book. 192 00:11:04,480 --> 00:11:07,040 And I've spoken to people who've negotiated, been on the 193 00:11:07,040 --> 00:11:10,120 Ukrainian side negotiating the Minsk accords. 194 00:11:10,440 --> 00:11:14,080 And, you know, everything is down to the last detail that 195 00:11:14,080 --> 00:11:16,440 they'll, the Russians will suddenly come in and say, we're 196 00:11:16,440 --> 00:11:20,960 going to spend a whole day negotiating the 100mm cannon. 197 00:11:21,480 --> 00:11:24,760 And then they will say, and then we're going to do this, then 198 00:11:24,760 --> 00:11:26,280 we're going to do that. And then suddenly they come in 199 00:11:26,280 --> 00:11:28,680 with 100 pages that you've got assigned tonight before you go 200 00:11:28,680 --> 00:11:30,960 back. So they do all of that, that 201 00:11:30,960 --> 00:11:33,760 stuff, all of the, the time. They make it very, very 202 00:11:33,800 --> 00:11:35,840 difficult. And they, they have lots of 203 00:11:35,840 --> 00:11:39,920 lawyers and they have, you know, they have incredibly skilled 204 00:11:39,920 --> 00:11:42,000 negotiators. And one of the things I think is 205 00:11:42,000 --> 00:11:46,120 very, which maybe President Trump hasn't sort of seen in 206 00:11:46,120 --> 00:11:49,360 that way is President Trump is a fairly blunt instrument. 207 00:11:49,600 --> 00:11:52,040 Either there's fighting or there's no, no fighting. 208 00:11:52,160 --> 00:11:54,440 That's all he cares about. He doesn't care about the 209 00:11:54,440 --> 00:11:57,760 detail. Vladimir Putin cares about every 210 00:11:57,760 --> 00:12:00,680 single detail and will try and make sure that in any 211 00:12:00,680 --> 00:12:05,240 negotiation every single detail is to Russia's advantage. 212 00:12:05,400 --> 00:12:07,720 So that, I think is what he is likely to do. 213 00:12:08,080 --> 00:12:11,240 And Trump can't do to Russia what he did to Ukraine, can he 214 00:12:11,240 --> 00:12:14,120 in in reality, which is to get furious and throw his weight 215 00:12:14,120 --> 00:12:17,160 around and insult them. That is not how he deals with 216 00:12:17,160 --> 00:12:19,640 Russia and it is not how he deals with Vladimir Putin. 217 00:12:20,160 --> 00:12:23,680 However, he could put on more sanctions. 218 00:12:23,920 --> 00:12:26,920 And the other thing which maybe would we can put him more than 219 00:12:26,920 --> 00:12:31,120 anything else would be if the price of oil went down. 220 00:12:31,640 --> 00:12:36,560 Now, President Biden tried to make that happen with his 221 00:12:36,560 --> 00:12:39,080 negotiations with Saudi Arabia. The Saudis told them they 222 00:12:39,080 --> 00:12:43,480 weren't going to do that. President Trump, you know, it 223 00:12:43,480 --> 00:12:46,320 would be to his advantage in some ways if the price of oil 224 00:12:46,320 --> 00:12:49,400 came right down, partly because it would be very good for 225 00:12:49,400 --> 00:12:53,600 inflation in America. But it would also mean that the 226 00:12:53,600 --> 00:12:57,960 Russians had very, very little money because they are entirely 227 00:12:57,960 --> 00:13:03,600 dependent on oil, on the shadow fleet, which, you know, takes 228 00:13:03,600 --> 00:13:05,600 their sanctioned oil around the world. 229 00:13:05,840 --> 00:13:10,480 So if he wanted to, President Trump could try and push that 230 00:13:10,480 --> 00:13:12,560 angle and that might make a difference. 231 00:13:13,080 --> 00:13:15,960 It's it's worth then talking about the European position 232 00:13:16,120 --> 00:13:20,080 which remains, that they are prepared to send peacekeepers or 233 00:13:20,280 --> 00:13:22,000 Britain and France's position at least. 234 00:13:22,000 --> 00:13:24,560 And others are are considering it, which is looking 235 00:13:24,560 --> 00:13:29,480 increasingly daft, frankly, because Russia's not going to 236 00:13:29,520 --> 00:13:30,640 accept it. Yeah. 237 00:13:30,680 --> 00:13:33,640 And and it never was. The whole talk about 238 00:13:33,640 --> 00:13:39,000 peacekeepers is pushing the cart before the horse because there 239 00:13:39,000 --> 00:13:43,680 is no peace to keep. And certainly one of Russia's 240 00:13:43,680 --> 00:13:50,920 main concerns is NATO and they want Ukraine as a buffer zone, a 241 00:13:50,920 --> 00:13:56,800 neutral buffer zone under their their sway between them and 242 00:13:56,800 --> 00:13:59,640 NATO. If you bring in British and 243 00:13:59,640 --> 00:14:04,000 French forces who control who are going right up to the 244 00:14:04,000 --> 00:14:06,920 Russian border, then NATO's right on their border. 245 00:14:07,440 --> 00:14:11,400 That's done exactly the opposite of what they what they want. 246 00:14:11,680 --> 00:14:16,200 So it's very hard to see how that kind of peacekeeping force 247 00:14:16,200 --> 00:14:18,720 could ever be acceptable to the Russians. 248 00:14:19,000 --> 00:14:20,680 Yes. And and so it also makes you 249 00:14:20,680 --> 00:14:24,320 wonder whether Russia is considering the wider diplomatic 250 00:14:24,720 --> 00:14:29,000 victory that it can possibly see, because even if Donald 251 00:14:29,000 --> 00:14:33,600 Trump is back on Ukraine's side today, I'm guessing nobody in 252 00:14:33,600 --> 00:14:36,240 Ukraine feels that they can rely on that. 253 00:14:36,480 --> 00:14:39,640 There's a lesson that for, you know, there for all the other 254 00:14:40,080 --> 00:14:43,680 American partners, which is that you cannot rely on Washington 255 00:14:43,680 --> 00:14:48,160 really to be a, a sort of a steady security partner in the 256 00:14:48,160 --> 00:14:49,920 future. And it's very difficult to see 257 00:14:49,920 --> 00:14:55,040 how that comes back anytime soon, even beyond the Trump 258 00:14:55,040 --> 00:14:59,360 period, because, you know, the the Trump ideology could return 259 00:14:59,600 --> 00:15:02,680 in the form of JD Vance or somebody else in the future. 260 00:15:02,760 --> 00:15:05,600 So there is serious damage to the whole question of Western 261 00:15:06,320 --> 00:15:09,680 security stability. And that's an enormous victory 262 00:15:09,680 --> 00:15:12,600 for Russia in the longer term. Absolutely. 263 00:15:13,080 --> 00:15:17,000 The other thing, the Russians obviously want the far right 264 00:15:17,000 --> 00:15:23,760 parties in Europe to succeed and you know, increase their their 265 00:15:23,760 --> 00:15:27,840 influence and so on. So you look at my Le Pen in 266 00:15:27,840 --> 00:15:32,440 France and you know she had loans from Russia at one point. 267 00:15:32,440 --> 00:15:35,920 This came out in a in a court case, even though she did deny 268 00:15:35,920 --> 00:15:39,280 it. The Afd in Germany, all of these 269 00:15:39,280 --> 00:15:44,240 various parties, they will continue to try and exert as 270 00:15:44,240 --> 00:15:48,400 much influence as they can within the European political 271 00:15:48,400 --> 00:15:52,680 system as well as they are doing in in Ukraine. 272 00:15:52,920 --> 00:15:55,400 So, yeah, none of that is going to change. 273 00:15:55,400 --> 00:16:00,840 And from the Ukrainian point to view, Europe becomes ever more 274 00:16:00,880 --> 00:16:04,000 important. And I think that the issue about 275 00:16:04,000 --> 00:16:07,680 weapons is very important because, you know, we talk about 276 00:16:07,720 --> 00:16:10,840 the American weapons, which have been so useful to Ukraine. 277 00:16:10,840 --> 00:16:14,280 But at the same time, Ukraine has been developing its own 278 00:16:14,280 --> 00:16:17,280 weapons industry. It now produces 40% of the 279 00:16:17,280 --> 00:16:19,360 weaponry that it uses on the battlefield. 280 00:16:19,680 --> 00:16:22,080 A lot of that is very high tech drones. 281 00:16:22,320 --> 00:16:26,000 Ukraine is ahead of almost anywhere else in the world in 282 00:16:26,000 --> 00:16:29,840 the use of high tech drones, all sorts of extraordinary things 283 00:16:29,840 --> 00:16:33,000 that drones couldn't do before this war started. 284 00:16:33,320 --> 00:16:37,040 So the technology they are developing is also going to be 285 00:16:37,040 --> 00:16:42,480 very useful for Europe as it spends more and more on defence 286 00:16:42,600 --> 00:16:45,440 and actually, you know, it would be useful for the Americans as 287 00:16:45,440 --> 00:16:46,600 well. It's hard to know whether 288 00:16:46,600 --> 00:16:50,320 they're going to whether they're going to the bite on that, but 289 00:16:50,320 --> 00:16:54,920 Ukraine has an opportunity to integrate its defence production 290 00:16:54,920 --> 00:16:58,400 with Europe, which would strengthen Europe and Ukraine 291 00:16:58,440 --> 00:17:01,280 and that could leave America on the side. 292 00:17:01,720 --> 00:17:04,359 Just to come back to the question of security guarantees, 293 00:17:04,359 --> 00:17:07,520 this is something that has dominated the conversation for 294 00:17:07,520 --> 00:17:10,560 weeks now. And I think, you know, the the 295 00:17:10,560 --> 00:17:13,599 Trump side have been saying, look, don't get ahead of 296 00:17:13,599 --> 00:17:15,599 yourself when it comes to security guarantees. 297 00:17:15,760 --> 00:17:19,480 Security guarantees may be the final part of the jigsaw once 298 00:17:19,480 --> 00:17:23,359 we're at negotiating stage. And from the Russian point of 299 00:17:23,359 --> 00:17:27,359 view, as you, as you've laid out, there can't really be the 300 00:17:27,359 --> 00:17:32,120 kind of security guarantee that Ukraine wants because there's no 301 00:17:32,120 --> 00:17:37,680 way that Russia will accept NATO troops on its border of any 302 00:17:37,680 --> 00:17:39,640 kind. So the security guarantee is 303 00:17:39,640 --> 00:17:42,400 going to have to be something different, isn't it? 304 00:17:42,400 --> 00:17:45,440 And and not what we're talking about at the moment. 305 00:17:45,560 --> 00:17:47,080 Yeah. And I don't know what that's 306 00:17:47,080 --> 00:17:49,160 going to be. You know, if I did, I'd, you 307 00:17:49,160 --> 00:17:52,040 know, probably be in charge of a small country somewhere in 308 00:17:52,040 --> 00:17:56,040 Europe. But the point is, is because the 309 00:17:56,040 --> 00:17:59,040 Ukrainians have this long experience of negotiating with 310 00:17:59,040 --> 00:18:01,840 the Russians. So after the Russian invasion 311 00:18:01,840 --> 00:18:06,480 and annexing of Crimea in 2014, as you'll remember, you had a 312 00:18:06,480 --> 00:18:10,680 lot of rounds of peace negotiations in Minsk, the 313 00:18:10,720 --> 00:18:13,880 capital of Belarus, Minsk 1, Minsk 2, all of these 314 00:18:14,040 --> 00:18:18,400 negotiations and you had a ceasefire which both sides 315 00:18:18,400 --> 00:18:21,120 actually violated, but particularly the Russians. 316 00:18:21,120 --> 00:18:26,000 But the whole point about Minsk was the security guarantees 317 00:18:26,000 --> 00:18:28,760 didn't work. And that's why Russia was able 318 00:18:28,760 --> 00:18:33,160 to come back for for more. And that is the great concern of 319 00:18:33,160 --> 00:18:36,880 the Ukrainians and that is what the Russian, the Russians want 320 00:18:36,880 --> 00:18:40,200 to leave that open. So even if they do do a deal, 321 00:18:40,200 --> 00:18:43,040 they want to leave that open that they come can come back for 322 00:18:43,200 --> 00:18:46,120 for more at some point. The other thing which I think is 323 00:18:46,120 --> 00:18:48,560 really difficult for the Ukrainians and this again is a 324 00:18:48,560 --> 00:18:53,280 longer term thing, is that if you leave this as a frozen 325 00:18:53,320 --> 00:18:56,960 conflict, you're not going to get something like, for example, 326 00:18:56,960 --> 00:19:00,280 you have in North and South Korea where South Korea was, you 327 00:19:00,280 --> 00:19:04,560 know, has been able to to blossom and to develop 328 00:19:04,560 --> 00:19:07,880 economically and so on, even though it has never had a formal 329 00:19:07,880 --> 00:19:11,520 ceasefire with the North because the North, you know, it frankly 330 00:19:11,520 --> 00:19:14,240 hasn't interfered. I mean, it might, you know, 331 00:19:14,240 --> 00:19:16,840 there might be occasional raids and so on, but but it hasn't. 332 00:19:17,320 --> 00:19:19,360 And that's because China doesn't want it to. 333 00:19:19,920 --> 00:19:24,320 But here what you might get would be a diminished and 334 00:19:24,320 --> 00:19:26,840 diminishing country. You've already got a lot of 335 00:19:26,840 --> 00:19:28,960 Ukrainians who are living overseas. 336 00:19:29,160 --> 00:19:33,480 There's a demographic crisis. One of the reasons that Zelensky 337 00:19:33,480 --> 00:19:37,320 has not called for a full scale mobilization of men under the 338 00:19:37,320 --> 00:19:42,720 age of 25 is that they're really worried about destroying that 339 00:19:42,720 --> 00:19:47,200 generation of there being no men left and the women having left 340 00:19:47,200 --> 00:19:49,520 the country. And then the population getting 341 00:19:49,520 --> 00:19:53,560 smaller and smaller and smaller and always having this massive 342 00:19:53,840 --> 00:19:58,000 threat to the east so that Ukraine in the end sort of 343 00:19:58,000 --> 00:20:02,120 dwindles away. These are the long term fears 344 00:20:02,320 --> 00:20:05,680 that Ukraine has. Of course there are NATO troops 345 00:20:06,080 --> 00:20:09,200 on Russia's border already in a way, aren't there with with 346 00:20:09,200 --> 00:20:12,880 Finland. Why does Russia tolerate that? 347 00:20:13,000 --> 00:20:15,040 Yeah, Finland, the Baltic States and so on. 348 00:20:15,360 --> 00:20:20,080 The reason it tolerates that and it doesn't tolerate Ukraine is 349 00:20:20,080 --> 00:20:22,960 because it sees Ukraine as part of Russia. 350 00:20:23,160 --> 00:20:25,120 It has a different attitude to Ukraine. 351 00:20:25,120 --> 00:20:28,960 It does not see Ukraine as an independent country in any way. 352 00:20:29,240 --> 00:20:32,800 But also there are many who say, well, after Ukraine, it would 353 00:20:32,800 --> 00:20:35,360 like to move that way too. Finland they can't do anything 354 00:20:35,360 --> 00:20:37,960 about but that they've got their eye on the Baltic states. 355 00:20:38,200 --> 00:20:41,240 And certainly if you talk to any of the Baltic state leaders, 356 00:20:41,240 --> 00:20:45,040 what they will say to you is after Ukraine we are in the 357 00:20:45,040 --> 00:20:48,440 firing line and that is why we are so supportive of Ukraine. 358 00:20:48,720 --> 00:20:52,480 They certainly think that Ukrainian soldiers are dying, 359 00:20:52,480 --> 00:20:55,880 not just for Ukraine's independence, but for theirs as 360 00:20:55,880 --> 00:20:58,640 well. Now, just finally, there's going 361 00:20:58,640 --> 00:21:03,280 to be a temptation for people to have a look at the way we've 362 00:21:03,280 --> 00:21:06,800 been thinking about Donald Trump and say, well, you know what? 363 00:21:07,040 --> 00:21:09,320 He, he's the one who does make the difference. 364 00:21:09,640 --> 00:21:14,440 And for all the chaos and for all the confusion, he has got 365 00:21:14,440 --> 00:21:16,000 one side to agree to a ceasefire. 366 00:21:16,000 --> 00:21:19,400 And who knows, he may get Russia to agree to a 30 day ceasefire 367 00:21:19,560 --> 00:21:23,280 as well, whether or not it actually happens in in fact. 368 00:21:23,560 --> 00:21:26,120 So. So what do we make, then, of 369 00:21:26,120 --> 00:21:31,680 whether the world has been too quick to judge Trump as a man 370 00:21:31,680 --> 00:21:36,680 who doesn't understand the way things are, when the facts on 371 00:21:36,680 --> 00:21:39,720 the ground might show he's the one who's actually making a 372 00:21:39,720 --> 00:21:41,240 difference? Well, the one thing he said, 373 00:21:41,240 --> 00:21:44,760 which is absolutely true is that too many people are dying in 374 00:21:44,760 --> 00:21:49,760 this war and too many, you know, soldiers on both sides are 375 00:21:49,760 --> 00:21:53,600 losing their their lives. Of that he is absolutely right. 376 00:21:54,160 --> 00:21:57,760 And I think that what he has done in trying to push some of 377 00:21:57,760 --> 00:22:01,880 this through, yeah, you can say that this is not all bad. 378 00:22:02,040 --> 00:22:05,600 In many ways this is positive. A ceasefire would be great. 379 00:22:06,080 --> 00:22:09,040 The issue is what happens after a ceasefire. 380 00:22:09,040 --> 00:22:11,840 And that, I think, is the problem because from the 381 00:22:11,840 --> 00:22:16,440 Ukrainian point of view is this. If the ceasefire just enables 382 00:22:16,760 --> 00:22:22,680 Russia to rearm, regroup and then come back for more, maybe 383 00:22:22,680 --> 00:22:27,680 in a year's time, maybe after Donald Trump is no longer in 384 00:22:27,680 --> 00:22:31,080 office, then that hasn't solved the problem in any way. 385 00:22:31,280 --> 00:22:34,560 It has just delayed the the problem. 386 00:22:34,960 --> 00:22:36,920 And so that, I think, is the key. 387 00:22:37,040 --> 00:22:39,320 There are some things he has understood and he has pushed 388 00:22:39,320 --> 00:22:40,920 through. And you cannot say that it's a 389 00:22:40,920 --> 00:22:44,240 bad idea to stop the killing. Of course you can't. 390 00:22:44,920 --> 00:22:48,080 But if it just makes Russia stronger and so there's more 391 00:22:48,080 --> 00:22:52,640 killing later on, and Ukraine gets swallowed up, then maybe 392 00:22:52,640 --> 00:22:55,680 Donald Trump wouldn't look like such a brilliant thing after 393 00:22:55,680 --> 00:22:57,400 all. Lindsay Hilson, thank you very 394 00:22:57,400 --> 00:22:59,120 much indeed. That's the forecast for this 395 00:22:59,120 --> 00:23:00,840 morning. Until next time, bye bye.