1 00:00:00,040 --> 00:00:03,800 The weaponry that the Americans are developing is more advanced, 2 00:00:03,800 --> 00:00:06,800 but of course the People's Liberation Army is massive and 3 00:00:06,800 --> 00:00:09,920 the Chinese are building up a huge fleet. 4 00:00:10,040 --> 00:00:13,040 That is the next thing we are going to get into and that I 5 00:00:13,040 --> 00:00:15,960 think is really scary because we're into high tech warfare. 6 00:00:16,079 --> 00:00:18,720 Given that China is building up militarily in the way that 7 00:00:18,800 --> 00:00:21,960 Germany did, you know, at the end of the 19th century, is this 8 00:00:21,960 --> 00:00:26,320 a military buildup with the idea that that military power will be 9 00:00:26,320 --> 00:00:29,840 used at some stage or just, you know, this is Our Calling card. 10 00:00:29,880 --> 00:00:31,840 We are powerful. We're here to be reckoned with. 11 00:00:32,000 --> 00:00:34,200 Well, calling cards only work if you're willing to play it. 12 00:00:37,360 --> 00:00:38,880 Hello and welcome to the forecast. 13 00:00:38,880 --> 00:00:42,200 China is in an age of breakneck technological development. 14 00:00:42,520 --> 00:00:46,320 AI, robots, drones, electrical vehicles, you name it. 15 00:00:46,760 --> 00:00:49,120 But at the same time, the young people are resisting 16 00:00:49,120 --> 00:00:50,920 progression, or many of them at least. 17 00:00:51,280 --> 00:00:53,240 They call it tongue ping lying flat. 18 00:00:53,640 --> 00:00:55,920 Our international editor, Lindsay Hilsum, has returned 19 00:00:55,920 --> 00:00:58,680 from her first China trip since she was Channel 4 News 20 00:00:58,680 --> 00:01:00,600 correspondent there in the late 2000s. 21 00:01:00,600 --> 00:01:03,080 But also she was there again in 2013. 22 00:01:03,440 --> 00:01:07,240 She was wowed by technological progress, but also found a 23 00:01:07,240 --> 00:01:10,760 generation exhausted and overwhelmed by overwork, 24 00:01:10,920 --> 00:01:13,480 depression and, of course, political pressure. 25 00:01:13,680 --> 00:01:16,480 Joining Lindsay me to discuss today's China is economist Dan 26 00:01:16,480 --> 00:01:19,560 Wong, author of Breakneck, who argues that China's system has 27 00:01:19,560 --> 00:01:22,960 unique strengths and dangerous weaknesses in the race for 28 00:01:22,960 --> 00:01:25,560 technological supremacy. Welcome to you both. 29 00:01:25,840 --> 00:01:27,360 Hi, Lindsay, Let me start with you. 30 00:01:28,520 --> 00:01:30,600 So you hadn't been there for over a decade? 31 00:01:30,840 --> 00:01:32,280 Yep. What was the thing that 32 00:01:32,280 --> 00:01:35,960 surprised you most? Well, obviously going up in a 33 00:01:35,960 --> 00:01:41,840 pilotless drone, an air taxi above Guangzhou by myself alone 34 00:01:41,840 --> 00:01:45,920 in this in this vehicle looking down on the the city. 35 00:01:46,040 --> 00:01:49,960 Terrified or overjoyed? I wasn't that scared because I 36 00:01:49,960 --> 00:01:52,040 thought they wouldn't let me do it if it was really dangerous, 37 00:01:52,040 --> 00:01:54,840 but it was impressive. I mean, and they they talk about 38 00:01:54,840 --> 00:01:58,920 the low altitude economy, the idea that these air taxes will 39 00:01:58,920 --> 00:02:03,280 take people to the airport and obviously that is impressive. 40 00:02:03,920 --> 00:02:06,840 I suppose also the air is much cleaner. 41 00:02:06,880 --> 00:02:10,600 All these electric vehicles, EVs that weren't around when I was 42 00:02:10,600 --> 00:02:15,520 there, and high speed rail. I went from Hangzhou to Beijing, 43 00:02:15,520 --> 00:02:18,880 that's 1200 kilometres in 4 1/2 hours. 44 00:02:19,080 --> 00:02:22,600 So all of those things, I had to be impressed by that. 45 00:02:22,840 --> 00:02:27,920 But then also, you know, all those shopping malls, the sort 46 00:02:27,920 --> 00:02:32,840 of Japanification of China. And I had to really look for the 47 00:02:32,840 --> 00:02:37,680 China which I had grown to love when I was there, a sort of old 48 00:02:37,680 --> 00:02:39,160 China. I wondered if they were ripping 49 00:02:39,160 --> 00:02:41,720 the soul out of the planet. Is that you speaking as a 50 00:02:41,720 --> 00:02:45,720 nostalgia kind of obsessed foreigner? 51 00:02:46,360 --> 00:02:48,400 Maybe. Or is it you know, Or is it, are 52 00:02:48,400 --> 00:02:50,280 you genuine about the soul being ripped out of China? 53 00:02:50,280 --> 00:02:54,120 I'm genuine about the soul because as you know, you've just 54 00:02:54,120 --> 00:02:57,400 said, you know, a lot of young people are are depressed and 55 00:02:57,680 --> 00:03:01,560 don't feel that this progress necessarily is going to to 56 00:03:01,560 --> 00:03:04,000 benefit them. There's a sort of lackadaisical 57 00:03:04,480 --> 00:03:07,320 generation. But I think that if everything 58 00:03:07,640 --> 00:03:13,960 is about progress, technology, you know, the white speed of it 59 00:03:13,960 --> 00:03:18,280 all, then I wonder, you know, what is left of identity. 60 00:03:18,280 --> 00:03:19,920 I don't know what what do you think that? 61 00:03:20,160 --> 00:03:22,400 I agree with you very much about the soul. 62 00:03:22,800 --> 00:03:27,440 I describe China in part as a the modern Beijing, as engineers 63 00:03:27,440 --> 00:03:31,400 of the soul, which is a term from Marshall Joseph Stalin that 64 00:03:31,640 --> 00:03:34,080 Xi Jinping decided to repeat a few years ago. 65 00:03:34,560 --> 00:03:37,440 And so I think that China is absolutely losing a lot. 66 00:03:37,560 --> 00:03:40,320 At the same time, it is gaining a lot when you have new bridges, 67 00:03:40,320 --> 00:03:44,200 being able to connect people to bigger markets, at the same time 68 00:03:44,200 --> 00:03:46,640 as you're getting new subway systems as well as new parks, 69 00:03:46,960 --> 00:03:50,600 while many people are creatively exhausted by everything 70 00:03:50,600 --> 00:03:53,240 happening undersea. Before we talk about the social 71 00:03:53,240 --> 00:03:55,800 engineering and the exhaustion, I just want to, you know, home 72 00:03:55,800 --> 00:03:59,640 in on the, the technological progress because we in the West 73 00:03:59,640 --> 00:04:02,880 like to think of China as the world's factory, but it turns 74 00:04:02,880 --> 00:04:05,880 out it's the world's factory and the world's laboratory, isn't 75 00:04:05,880 --> 00:04:06,720 it? I mean, they're, they're just 76 00:04:06,720 --> 00:04:09,920 inventing stuff that might be invented in Silicon Valley on 77 00:04:09,920 --> 00:04:12,280 parts of the US, but probably not in Europe anymore. 78 00:04:12,560 --> 00:04:16,240 So tell us about that transition from a country that makes stuff 79 00:04:16,240 --> 00:04:19,720 to a country that invents stuff. I think that China is very much 80 00:04:19,720 --> 00:04:22,440 both a laboratory and a factory at this point. 81 00:04:22,440 --> 00:04:25,160 So if we think about something that the US invented, something 82 00:04:25,160 --> 00:04:27,640 like solar photovoltaic panels or even something like 83 00:04:27,640 --> 00:04:30,960 semiconductors, that is something that was created by 84 00:04:30,960 --> 00:04:33,760 the Americans that the Americans are no longer very good at 85 00:04:33,760 --> 00:04:35,960 making. And when I'm in Silicon Valley, 86 00:04:35,960 --> 00:04:38,400 when I'm in the United States, I'm constantly challenging 87 00:04:38,400 --> 00:04:41,720 Americans to ask them, but what is the greater glory to be able 88 00:04:41,720 --> 00:04:44,080 to claim in the history books that you invented something like 89 00:04:44,080 --> 00:04:47,160 the first solar photovoltaic cell or to actually own the 90 00:04:47,160 --> 00:04:49,800 industry in the present day? And so China has very much 91 00:04:49,800 --> 00:04:53,560 blurred these practices because factories are often cutting edge 92 00:04:53,560 --> 00:04:56,800 laboratories and themselves people are able to work on 93 00:04:56,800 --> 00:04:59,040 cutting edge things. They're on the bleeding edge and 94 00:04:59,040 --> 00:05:01,720 they're able to figure out where the technology is going next. 95 00:05:01,920 --> 00:05:05,600 And the people who invent this stuff, I guess many of whom were 96 00:05:05,600 --> 00:05:09,320 educated in the United States, are they inventing this stuff in 97 00:05:09,320 --> 00:05:14,080 order to make money for the greater good of China or maybe a 98 00:05:14,080 --> 00:05:17,400 little bit of both to beat the United States at their at their 99 00:05:17,400 --> 00:05:19,680 own game? I think the answer is yes, that 100 00:05:19,680 --> 00:05:23,040 it is an element of both, that I think that what is really 101 00:05:23,040 --> 00:05:25,800 distinguishing Chinese entrepreneurs as well as 102 00:05:25,800 --> 00:05:28,640 American entrepreneurs is that they have a lot of appetite to 103 00:05:28,640 --> 00:05:31,080 make doughnuts now. They're really big hustlers. 104 00:05:31,080 --> 00:05:33,320 They're really interested in making a big bucks. 105 00:05:33,800 --> 00:05:37,080 At the same time, I think there is an element of nationalism 106 00:05:37,280 --> 00:05:40,960 that exists more within Chinese society for having felt that 107 00:05:40,960 --> 00:05:43,280 they were behind for too long, that they really want to catch 108 00:05:43,280 --> 00:05:46,160 up, and now they want to surpass the US as well as the UKI. 109 00:05:46,560 --> 00:05:48,680 Think also one of the things which really struck me when I 110 00:05:48,680 --> 00:05:52,840 was in Shenzhen is about, you know, the supply chain and the 111 00:05:52,840 --> 00:05:55,600 system. So if you take E VS electric 112 00:05:55,640 --> 00:05:58,880 vehicles. So yes, China controls the rare 113 00:05:58,920 --> 00:06:02,360 earths and the rare earths go into the batteries and the 114 00:06:02,360 --> 00:06:06,960 batteries are in the electric vehicles and a company like BYD, 115 00:06:07,360 --> 00:06:09,920 they, they're controlling all of that supply chain. 116 00:06:09,920 --> 00:06:12,840 There's none of that kind of fragmentation which you get in 117 00:06:12,840 --> 00:06:16,640 Western capitalism now. And you know, I went to, I was, 118 00:06:16,720 --> 00:06:19,640 you know, you go around Shenzhen with it's nice clean air and you 119 00:06:19,640 --> 00:06:22,280 look at all the, the green number plates on the cars. 120 00:06:22,280 --> 00:06:25,000 And then I was in a charging station and battery change 121 00:06:25,000 --> 00:06:28,160 station. You drive in, you go to the 122 00:06:28,160 --> 00:06:33,360 place where it's like a carport and the ground open up beneath 123 00:06:33,360 --> 00:06:35,200 you. The battery drops out. 124 00:06:35,440 --> 00:06:38,800 It's taken away on one side, the new battery comes in, up it is 125 00:06:38,800 --> 00:06:41,880 and off you go. So in 3 minutes you have changed 126 00:06:41,880 --> 00:06:46,280 the battery in your car and the largest BYD vehicle that goes 127 00:06:46,480 --> 00:06:51,000 620 kilometres on one charge or you can charge it up, you know, 128 00:06:51,000 --> 00:06:54,360 and that takes you an hour. And so the system actually works 129 00:06:54,360 --> 00:06:57,160 because it's tied up together. Whereas when it comes to 130 00:06:57,160 --> 00:07:00,280 electric vehicles, certainly in the UK and I think in America as 131 00:07:00,280 --> 00:07:02,960 well, it isn't all tied up together like that. 132 00:07:02,960 --> 00:07:04,800 And so it's much harder to make it work. 133 00:07:05,040 --> 00:07:08,520 One of the interesting things I read up on recently was that in 134 00:07:08,520 --> 00:07:11,040 America in the early noughties, they had rare earth metals 135 00:07:11,280 --> 00:07:13,880 mines, I think in New Mexico and Arizona. 136 00:07:13,880 --> 00:07:16,080 And basically these mines kept going bust. 137 00:07:16,080 --> 00:07:18,120 So they decided to, it was much easier just to buy the stuff 138 00:07:18,120 --> 00:07:21,120 from China. In China, What is the thinking? 139 00:07:21,120 --> 00:07:24,360 Is it that industrial policy kicks in and the Chinese 140 00:07:24,360 --> 00:07:27,480 government says we need rare earth mines, we need the best 141 00:07:27,480 --> 00:07:29,000 batteries in the world for our cars. 142 00:07:29,280 --> 00:07:32,440 You know, we need the best AI and we're going to basically 143 00:07:32,440 --> 00:07:34,960 help the companies to get there. And the ones that fail, they can 144 00:07:34,960 --> 00:07:36,720 fail. And the ones that succeed, we 145 00:07:36,720 --> 00:07:38,960 shall support. And we want some of that money 146 00:07:38,960 --> 00:07:40,560 for ourselves. Like how does it work? 147 00:07:41,120 --> 00:07:43,560 They simply have the hunger to make a lot of these things. 148 00:07:43,560 --> 00:07:46,240 You know, Matt, I was the. Government and the engineers. 149 00:07:46,240 --> 00:07:48,080 The government and the engineers, the entire civil 150 00:07:48,080 --> 00:07:51,760 society, the entire system. A month ago I visited America's 151 00:07:51,760 --> 00:07:55,720 only rare earth magnet factory in Fort Worth, TX, and it is 152 00:07:55,840 --> 00:07:59,680 coming up with new batteries as well as the the rare earth 153 00:07:59,680 --> 00:08:03,160 magnets themselves. They have access to a mine in 154 00:08:03,360 --> 00:08:06,400 around Nevada and California's border, a little bit outside of 155 00:08:06,400 --> 00:08:09,680 Las Vegas, which really feels like one of the most naturally 156 00:08:09,680 --> 00:08:12,440 blessed mines in the world. It's just all of the rare earths 157 00:08:12,440 --> 00:08:14,960 are really on the surface. But what do the Chinese bring to 158 00:08:14,960 --> 00:08:16,840 the table? Well, they had a hunger to make 159 00:08:16,840 --> 00:08:20,160 a lot of these minerals which they own in on the home soil, 160 00:08:20,600 --> 00:08:24,320 but also these red mining rare earths is so energy intensive 161 00:08:24,480 --> 00:08:27,040 and so polluting that only the Chinese have the stomach for 162 00:08:27,040 --> 00:08:29,840 doing something like this. And so they have they're willing 163 00:08:29,840 --> 00:08:33,159 to pay these costs in order to win technological supremacy. 164 00:08:33,440 --> 00:08:35,679 And if we go down and look throughout the supply chain, as 165 00:08:35,679 --> 00:08:37,080 Lindsay says, it's not just one thing. 166 00:08:37,200 --> 00:08:38,400 They really think about everything. 167 00:08:38,400 --> 00:08:40,400 It's so much more systems wide thinking over there. 168 00:08:41,120 --> 00:08:44,039 Also, can I just add because I went to a rare earth mine in 169 00:08:44,039 --> 00:08:48,240 Inner Mongolia in 2011 and it was unbelievably polluting. 170 00:08:48,240 --> 00:08:50,920 It was horrendous and I presume that the processes have improved 171 00:08:50,920 --> 00:08:53,160 since then. But what struck me then was 172 00:08:53,160 --> 00:08:57,360 again, this long term thinking. So back then they were already 173 00:08:57,360 --> 00:09:01,960 thinking, right, we are going to dominate the rare earth market 174 00:09:02,160 --> 00:09:05,000 worldwide. And they set about doing that. 175 00:09:05,000 --> 00:09:07,800 And you can talk about they and they is the government. 176 00:09:07,800 --> 00:09:11,720 So the government will, you know, sponsor and support the 177 00:09:11,720 --> 00:09:14,080 companies which are going to to do that. 178 00:09:14,240 --> 00:09:17,800 Whereas in America, you know, the rarer thing, as you said, 179 00:09:17,800 --> 00:09:19,400 Matt, you know, it sort of comes and goes. 180 00:09:19,400 --> 00:09:22,280 Molly Corp in California, it goes bust, doesn't get 181 00:09:22,280 --> 00:09:23,920 government support. This. 182 00:09:23,920 --> 00:09:27,800 The system in China is designed to make everything work 183 00:09:27,800 --> 00:09:28,840 together. Right. 184 00:09:29,000 --> 00:09:31,440 But one of the other reasons why, you know, rare earth metal 185 00:09:31,440 --> 00:09:33,680 mines fail in America is because there are lawsuits from 186 00:09:33,800 --> 00:09:36,960 environmentalists that shut them down or, or the the cost is too 187 00:09:36,960 --> 00:09:40,240 expensive to keep them open. So, you know, in in your book, 188 00:09:40,240 --> 00:09:43,320 you have this wonderful analogy, you know, a country of lawyers, 189 00:09:43,640 --> 00:09:45,840 America versus a country of engineers, China. 190 00:09:46,800 --> 00:09:48,880 I mean, there's a reason why America is a country of lawyers 191 00:09:48,880 --> 00:09:51,160 because it's, it was founded by, you know, a bunch of lawyers and 192 00:09:51,160 --> 00:09:53,480 philosophers and it was founded on ideas. 193 00:09:53,920 --> 00:09:56,280 And the idea of America, I guess, is that you start from 194 00:09:56,280 --> 00:09:59,080 the bottom and you go up. Whereas in China, it seems to be 195 00:09:59,080 --> 00:10:01,680 the other way around. And I mean, this is we should 196 00:10:01,680 --> 00:10:03,000 really ask this at the end of the podcast. 197 00:10:03,000 --> 00:10:06,480 I'll ask it now, which is the more durable system do you 198 00:10:06,480 --> 00:10:08,200 think? I think both are durable, both 199 00:10:08,200 --> 00:10:10,880 have strengths and weaknesses. I will say a word of defence for 200 00:10:10,880 --> 00:10:12,600 the lawyers I'm coming from that's. 201 00:10:12,600 --> 00:10:15,080 That's a rare thing to hear. That the lawyerly society has 202 00:10:15,080 --> 00:10:16,120 some. For the lawyers, come on. 203 00:10:16,160 --> 00:10:18,680 Dad, you got you got you got me on the record saying this now, 204 00:10:18,680 --> 00:10:22,160 but there is something special about the United States. 205 00:10:22,160 --> 00:10:23,720 I'm coming to you from the West Coast. 206 00:10:23,760 --> 00:10:26,680 And the West Coast is the only region in the world that has not 207 00:10:26,680 --> 00:10:29,400 only created a company worth over a trillion dollars, has 208 00:10:29,400 --> 00:10:31,920 created several companies worth over several trillions of 209 00:10:31,920 --> 00:10:33,920 dollars. The rich feel comfortable to 210 00:10:33,920 --> 00:10:35,360 create their businesses in America. 211 00:10:35,360 --> 00:10:37,360 They feel protected to do something like that. 212 00:10:37,600 --> 00:10:39,920 And that is not something that the Chinese have been able to do 213 00:10:39,920 --> 00:10:42,680 very well either. But so the rich feel comfortable 214 00:10:42,680 --> 00:10:45,080 to invent stuff and make money from it in America? 215 00:10:45,160 --> 00:10:47,840 How does it work in China then? I think that there is still 216 00:10:47,840 --> 00:10:49,320 quite a lot of hunger to be rich. 217 00:10:49,560 --> 00:10:51,320 You can see this sort of pulsing through everywhere. 218 00:10:51,320 --> 00:10:53,480 There's a lot of petty entrepreneurialism. 219 00:10:53,480 --> 00:10:55,840 People really want to make doughnuts, and that is true for 220 00:10:55,840 --> 00:10:57,640 both the Americans as well as the Chinese. 221 00:10:57,920 --> 00:11:00,240 But there is kind of this overbearing hand at the 222 00:11:00,240 --> 00:11:03,240 government that sometimes helps out, that sometimes offers very 223 00:11:03,240 --> 00:11:06,440 useful industrial subsidies, which sometimes decides to smack 224 00:11:06,440 --> 00:11:09,640 around a lot of tech founders like Jack Ma, who got a little 225 00:11:09,640 --> 00:11:11,960 bit big for his speeches. And so that is kind of this 226 00:11:11,960 --> 00:11:14,120 precarity of living in the engineering state. 227 00:11:14,440 --> 00:11:17,400 Things might go very well if the government decides to build your 228 00:11:17,400 --> 00:11:19,440 factory, but what if they decide to take it all away? 229 00:11:19,560 --> 00:11:21,400 Yeah. Well, Donald Trump is trying to 230 00:11:21,400 --> 00:11:23,400 do something rather similar. You could argue that if you get 231 00:11:23,400 --> 00:11:25,760 too big for your boots or you don't kiss his ring, you might 232 00:11:25,760 --> 00:11:27,880 also be in trouble. Absolutely. 233 00:11:27,880 --> 00:11:31,080 But you know what, it's baked into the system in China. 234 00:11:31,080 --> 00:11:34,320 And certainly, I mean, Dan would know much more about this than I 235 00:11:34,320 --> 00:11:37,800 would in China, that some of the most senior and the richest 236 00:11:37,800 --> 00:11:40,400 people have ended up, they've sort of gone abroad, haven't 237 00:11:40,400 --> 00:11:41,520 they, because. They to London. 238 00:11:41,760 --> 00:11:44,080 Yeah, because they don't feel secure. 239 00:11:44,080 --> 00:11:47,600 But having said that, I did meet quite a lot of entrepreneurs, 240 00:11:47,600 --> 00:11:50,920 particularly in Hangzhou, which is like the sort of seen as the 241 00:11:50,920 --> 00:11:56,680 Silicon Valley of of China, a lot of young people who had AI 242 00:11:56,680 --> 00:11:58,560 startups. And you have the six little 243 00:11:58,560 --> 00:12:02,040 Dragons there, including DeepSeek, which is of course the 244 00:12:02,440 --> 00:12:06,240 the AI large language model, which surprised the world back 245 00:12:06,240 --> 00:12:08,400 in January. By making something really great 246 00:12:08,400 --> 00:12:11,480 for very little money compared to its American competition. 247 00:12:11,480 --> 00:12:12,880 Exactly. And then there's, you know, 248 00:12:12,880 --> 00:12:16,240 video, you know, computer games, game sciences there with a very, 249 00:12:16,240 --> 00:12:20,960 very popular game based on Chinese myth and legend and one 250 00:12:20,960 --> 00:12:23,840 which had AI glasses, which I, which I tried on. 251 00:12:23,960 --> 00:12:26,600 And what was interesting to me was quite a few of the people I 252 00:12:26,600 --> 00:12:31,000 met were Chinese who had been in Silicon Valley, didn't feel that 253 00:12:31,000 --> 00:12:34,400 they had had enough opportunity there and had gone back to China 254 00:12:34,400 --> 00:12:36,360 and were getting government support or looking for 255 00:12:36,360 --> 00:12:40,520 government support, but found a conducive environment there for 256 00:12:40,520 --> 00:12:43,600 their startups and said that they could be creative there. 257 00:12:43,600 --> 00:12:46,640 And they felt that there was more opportunity there than they 258 00:12:46,640 --> 00:12:49,680 had found in America. Do you think that the market is 259 00:12:49,680 --> 00:12:51,400 more cruel than the Chinese government? 260 00:12:51,400 --> 00:12:53,440 The American market is more cruel than the Chinese 261 00:12:53,440 --> 00:12:56,000 government when it comes to supporting new. 262 00:12:56,000 --> 00:12:59,280 Businesses certainly there is competition red in tooth and 263 00:12:59,280 --> 00:13:02,840 claw over in China that there is the, I think the, the, the rule 264 00:13:02,840 --> 00:13:05,680 of thumb that we have is that a Japanese, German, American 265 00:13:05,680 --> 00:13:09,160 automaker takes about 6 years to conceptualize a new auto model 266 00:13:09,160 --> 00:13:10,440 and then release it in the market. 267 00:13:10,720 --> 00:13:14,200 In China it's much closer to 18 months or two years, which is. 268 00:13:14,200 --> 00:13:16,000 Astonishing isn't? It they're moving three times 269 00:13:16,000 --> 00:13:19,200 faster and no one is hypnotizing the Americans to just move very 270 00:13:19,200 --> 00:13:21,360 slowly, that is because the Chinese are just so darn 271 00:13:21,360 --> 00:13:23,680 competitive. It is a ruthless market logic 272 00:13:23,680 --> 00:13:24,880 over there. And describe that 273 00:13:24,880 --> 00:13:26,760 competitiveness. And I want to hear from you 274 00:13:26,760 --> 00:13:28,360 what, you know, whether you say that, because we're going to 275 00:13:28,360 --> 00:13:30,480 talk about the lying down generation, but that 276 00:13:30,480 --> 00:13:32,800 competitiveness, what does it look like at, you know, the 277 00:13:32,800 --> 00:13:34,640 university level, at the professional level? 278 00:13:34,960 --> 00:13:38,600 One of the core facts about China is that you are sorted in 279 00:13:38,600 --> 00:13:41,280 all of these quite challenging competitions starting from a 280 00:13:41,280 --> 00:13:44,040 very young age. Many Chinese students will have 281 00:13:44,280 --> 00:13:47,680 awful memories of being labeled at the bottom half the bottom 282 00:13:47,680 --> 00:13:51,160 quintile of class, and some people might still be very proud 283 00:13:51,200 --> 00:13:52,960 of having the. Opposite to We're all winners. 284 00:13:53,080 --> 00:13:54,880 Yes, that's right. All shall have prizes. 285 00:13:55,080 --> 00:13:57,240 All shall have prizes. And in China it is very clear 286 00:13:57,240 --> 00:13:59,680 that the top five people have prizes and everyone else is not 287 00:13:59,680 --> 00:14:01,680 going to be very well regarded by the parents. 288 00:14:01,680 --> 00:14:04,560 And so this sort of ruthless logic exists throughout the 289 00:14:04,560 --> 00:14:07,400 formal system in China. But then the business logic is 290 00:14:07,400 --> 00:14:10,440 if anything far more demanding because if you release products, 291 00:14:10,440 --> 00:14:13,880 if you release taxis and in the air that collapse pretty quickly 292 00:14:13,880 --> 00:14:15,800 afterwards, you're not going to be very competitive in the 293 00:14:15,800 --> 00:14:18,680 market for very long and. You can make that money. 294 00:14:18,800 --> 00:14:22,640 You can write to to the top of that tree and you can thrive and 295 00:14:22,640 --> 00:14:24,800 keep your money and live a beautiful lifestyle as long as 296 00:14:24,800 --> 00:14:26,160 you don't challenge the government. 297 00:14:27,320 --> 00:14:29,760 And that is very challenging because you don't know where 298 00:14:29,760 --> 00:14:31,160 what might be challenging the government. 299 00:14:31,160 --> 00:14:33,400 Jack Moss certainly didn't know where all the lines were at the 300 00:14:33,400 --> 00:14:35,040 time that he would try to move things around. 301 00:14:35,040 --> 00:14:36,520 And so things are always shifting. 302 00:14:36,520 --> 00:14:38,080 The winds are always changing in China. 303 00:14:38,480 --> 00:14:40,400 But I think there's can I come up with something here? 304 00:14:40,560 --> 00:14:44,080 Because I think the other thing about, you know, going from 305 00:14:44,520 --> 00:14:48,680 conception to manufacture in 18 months, that's also about the 306 00:14:48,680 --> 00:14:51,760 seamlessness of the system. So in Shenzhen, you go to that 307 00:14:52,000 --> 00:14:54,920 huge electronics market in the middle of the city, which you 308 00:14:54,920 --> 00:14:57,680 will know very well. So if you, you know, if I have 309 00:14:57,680 --> 00:15:02,200 an idea for some kind of widget or AI something and I, and I, I 310 00:15:02,200 --> 00:15:05,520 try, it doesn't quite work. I can just go to that market and 311 00:15:05,520 --> 00:15:08,960 I can find 10 different parts and I can try each of them and 312 00:15:08,960 --> 00:15:11,640 within a day or a week I can work out this works and this 313 00:15:11,640 --> 00:15:14,200 doesn't work and so on. But if I'm American, I probably 314 00:15:14,200 --> 00:15:16,040 have to order those parts from China. 315 00:15:16,360 --> 00:15:20,520 And so there's there's a very practical way in which you can 316 00:15:20,520 --> 00:15:23,960 do trial and error and see whether your product is going to 317 00:15:23,960 --> 00:15:26,240 work. And that speeds up the whole 318 00:15:26,240 --> 00:15:28,000 process. Which is extraordinary. 319 00:15:28,000 --> 00:15:29,680 So just to describe this a little bit more. 320 00:15:29,680 --> 00:15:32,240 So there's literally like a shopping now for. 321 00:15:32,240 --> 00:15:35,200 It's a shopping mall. It's five, it's five stories. 322 00:15:35,200 --> 00:15:37,440 I can't remember. It's you know, it's more than AI 323 00:15:37,440 --> 00:15:39,120 think. It's three square kilometres. 324 00:15:39,320 --> 00:15:41,080 It's absolutely. Like an industrial park. 325 00:15:41,160 --> 00:15:45,160 Yes, it's absolutely massive and you can find people there who 326 00:15:45,160 --> 00:15:48,440 are just, you know, trying to buy a new pair of Airpods or a 327 00:15:48,440 --> 00:15:51,320 knock off pair of Airpods or you can find all sorts of 328 00:15:51,320 --> 00:15:53,240 semiconductors. But then that's the thing, 329 00:15:53,240 --> 00:15:57,040 because of course on semiconductors, America still 330 00:15:57,040 --> 00:16:01,800 has the edge on chips. America and obviously Taiwan, 331 00:16:01,800 --> 00:16:06,080 TSMC, which is the, the big semiconductor manufacturer in 332 00:16:06,080 --> 00:16:11,120 the world and their chips are far in advance of the Chinese 333 00:16:11,120 --> 00:16:13,960 chips. Now I was told that, you know, 334 00:16:13,960 --> 00:16:18,040 you could find the very advanced NVIDIA chips there, that they're 335 00:16:18,040 --> 00:16:21,080 smuggled in via Japan and Hong Kong. 336 00:16:21,080 --> 00:16:22,640 And of course, a chip is a very small thing. 337 00:16:22,640 --> 00:16:26,200 So, you know, under the, under the, the, the counter you, you 338 00:16:26,200 --> 00:16:29,000 can find them. So you can buy almost anything 339 00:16:29,320 --> 00:16:33,440 there, but when it comes to that very, very high tech, the 340 00:16:33,440 --> 00:16:36,520 Americans still are ahead. When I was walking through some 341 00:16:36,520 --> 00:16:40,280 of that market about almost a decade ago now, and I went to 342 00:16:40,280 --> 00:16:44,240 buy a little cell phone case with a white whale because my 343 00:16:44,240 --> 00:16:47,480 favorite novel is Moby Dick. Yes, the people ask me, do you 344 00:16:47,480 --> 00:16:49,760 want one or 1000? How about 1000? 345 00:16:49,760 --> 00:16:51,400 And I said one is enough. Thank you. 346 00:16:52,040 --> 00:16:55,680 And why is NVIDIA still able to produce better microchips than 347 00:16:55,680 --> 00:16:58,280 any Chinese equivalent company? I think that the Chinese are 348 00:16:58,280 --> 00:17:01,000 still relatively weak on two big technological sectors. 349 00:17:01,000 --> 00:17:03,840 The first is semiconductors, the second is aviation. 350 00:17:04,079 --> 00:17:06,800 And so there is still something quite challenging about the 351 00:17:06,800 --> 00:17:09,640 integration of many different scientific disciplines when it 352 00:17:09,640 --> 00:17:11,680 comes to semiconductors. That's the integration of 353 00:17:11,920 --> 00:17:14,920 computer science and chemistry and electrical engineering. 354 00:17:14,920 --> 00:17:17,560 When it comes to aviation, the reason that Rolls Royce still 355 00:17:17,560 --> 00:17:20,200 has this edge is that it is really good at integrating 356 00:17:20,200 --> 00:17:23,240 mechanical engineering and aerodynamics, material science. 357 00:17:23,440 --> 00:17:26,359 The Chinese are still catching up in anything where the science 358 00:17:26,359 --> 00:17:29,280 is relatively mature but the manufacturing is quite settled. 359 00:17:29,280 --> 00:17:32,600 The Chinese are by measure ahead, but where the science is 360 00:17:32,600 --> 00:17:34,560 still challenged, I think they're still quite behind. 361 00:17:34,560 --> 00:17:38,000 So to Lindsays point, right, So it's the integration of a new 362 00:17:38,000 --> 00:17:40,480 idea and the way that it's manufactured and then the kind 363 00:17:40,480 --> 00:17:43,120 of various, you know, manufacturing lines and and 364 00:17:43,120 --> 00:17:44,720 distribution lines that you need around it. 365 00:17:44,800 --> 00:17:46,400 That's right. But they are getting better. 366 00:17:46,400 --> 00:17:48,960 And so Chinese universities are rising through the ranks in all 367 00:17:48,960 --> 00:17:51,160 sorts of ways. China is doing more science and 368 00:17:51,160 --> 00:17:54,000 I expect that they will be doing getting more Nobel Prizes as 369 00:17:54,000 --> 00:17:55,680 well as other recognition sometime soon. 370 00:17:55,720 --> 00:17:58,160 And do the Chinese have a bankruptcy law that if you try 371 00:17:58,160 --> 00:18:00,600 something out and it doesn't work, that you didn't get bailed 372 00:18:00,600 --> 00:18:01,840 out? I mean it it rather like in 373 00:18:01,840 --> 00:18:03,960 America you can do Chapter 11 and have another life. 374 00:18:03,960 --> 00:18:06,480 And there is still some of that, although it is much less 375 00:18:06,480 --> 00:18:09,000 forgiving. If you get into personal 376 00:18:09,000 --> 00:18:11,160 bankruptcy, it's possible that you can't book and fancy a 377 00:18:11,160 --> 00:18:15,400 hotel, you can't take vacations anymore, You can't really go on 378 00:18:15,400 --> 00:18:17,720 the airplane. Sometimes you have to go on the 379 00:18:17,720 --> 00:18:19,000 trains instead. And so and. 380 00:18:19,000 --> 00:18:20,840 You can't go shocking forward. The high. 381 00:18:20,960 --> 00:18:23,000 Speed train. Listen, going on the high speed 382 00:18:23,000 --> 00:18:25,120 train, I'd choose out over the plane any day. 383 00:18:25,240 --> 00:18:27,840 I mean, you know, I'm sure the words bus replacement service I 384 00:18:27,840 --> 00:18:30,040 never heard in China. They're very common in this 385 00:18:30,040 --> 00:18:32,400 country. So, OK, let's go to the social 386 00:18:32,400 --> 00:18:35,320 side of this then. So with all this competition 387 00:18:35,320 --> 00:18:39,080 that you've described down from an early age on, and as you 388 00:18:39,080 --> 00:18:42,040 know, your excellent piece from China, Lindsay, you know, one of 389 00:18:42,040 --> 00:18:44,520 them was all about those people who decided to do a bit of Tan 390 00:18:44,520 --> 00:18:46,840 Ping or just they just, they kind of checked out. 391 00:18:47,160 --> 00:18:49,320 Is that a, is that their form of rebellion? 392 00:18:49,320 --> 00:18:51,720 They can't do politics, but what they can do is apathy. 393 00:18:52,040 --> 00:18:54,080 Well, it's so interesting because when I lived in China in 394 00:18:54,080 --> 00:18:57,560 the mid 2000s, you know, the the younger generation were very 395 00:18:57,560 --> 00:19:00,000 aware of being privileged, you know, that their grandparents 396 00:19:00,000 --> 00:19:02,280 had survived the Great Leap Forward, their parents had 397 00:19:02,280 --> 00:19:03,800 survived the Cultural Revolution. 398 00:19:03,800 --> 00:19:07,880 And now they were a very lucky generation and they were going 399 00:19:07,880 --> 00:19:09,800 for it. But this next generation, Gen. 400 00:19:09,800 --> 00:19:13,080 Z, which seems to have problems all over the world, they're like 401 00:19:13,280 --> 00:19:15,920 Nah. And so one of the concepts which 402 00:19:15,920 --> 00:19:17,720 I learnt when I was there. Was their generation. 403 00:19:17,720 --> 00:19:20,840 Yeah, it was, it was this American concept of garbage 404 00:19:20,840 --> 00:19:23,360 time. So garbage time is the end of an 405 00:19:23,360 --> 00:19:26,680 American football or basketball game when it's it's a foregone 406 00:19:26,680 --> 00:19:28,680 conclusion which side is going to win. 407 00:19:28,840 --> 00:19:31,200 And So what is the point of the last five or 10 minutes? 408 00:19:31,520 --> 00:19:34,600 And so it was a young woman who I met in a cafe. 409 00:19:34,600 --> 00:19:36,240 I just learnt about this concept. 410 00:19:36,240 --> 00:19:38,680 And I, yeah, I just asked her a completely different question. 411 00:19:38,680 --> 00:19:41,240 She said, oh, have you heard about garbage time? 412 00:19:41,240 --> 00:19:42,200 She said. I said, yes. 413 00:19:42,320 --> 00:19:45,040 She said, this is garbage time in Chinese history. 414 00:19:45,360 --> 00:19:48,160 And what they feel is that there's no point in trying. 415 00:19:48,640 --> 00:19:51,360 And there's a huge graduate unemployment problem. 416 00:19:51,360 --> 00:19:54,120 You've got 12 million graduates every year. 417 00:19:54,440 --> 00:19:59,080 And you know if you if you order your meal from May Twin, which 418 00:19:59,080 --> 00:20:02,240 is the equivalent to Deliveroo. Chances are it's going to be a 419 00:20:02,240 --> 00:20:04,840 graduate delivering it. At least 30% of the people 420 00:20:04,840 --> 00:20:06,760 working there are graduates because they just aren't 421 00:20:06,760 --> 00:20:10,640 graduate level jobs. And this is causing a huge 422 00:20:10,640 --> 00:20:15,040 amount of of disillusion. And so, you know, there's a sort 423 00:20:15,040 --> 00:20:17,680 of mental, I suppose you could call it a mental health crisis. 424 00:20:17,680 --> 00:20:18,960 I don't know, Dan, how would you see it? 425 00:20:18,960 --> 00:20:20,760 A. Civilizational crisis, perhaps 426 00:20:20,760 --> 00:20:24,160 civilization. I would go that this is that it 427 00:20:24,160 --> 00:20:26,120 is. I think it is an indictment that 428 00:20:26,120 --> 00:20:29,400 people in China, as well as most of the rest of East Asia, don't 429 00:20:29,400 --> 00:20:32,760 want to have kids, not in part because their TFR is so low, in 430 00:20:32,760 --> 00:20:35,640 part because there is. They're living through this 431 00:20:35,640 --> 00:20:37,440 garbage time. They don't have great hopes for 432 00:20:37,440 --> 00:20:39,680 the future and I think that this is an indictment for them. 433 00:20:40,280 --> 00:20:43,440 And this is despite, you know, supposedly family values, you 434 00:20:43,440 --> 00:20:45,440 know, all these sort of traditional Chinese values which 435 00:20:45,520 --> 00:20:48,080 may or may not still exist or. May or may not still exist, 436 00:20:48,080 --> 00:20:51,480 because I think a lot of women in particular are a little bit 437 00:20:51,480 --> 00:20:54,520 distressed about being told and being asked all the time when 438 00:20:54,760 --> 00:20:56,920 they plan to have children. I think that's something like a 439 00:20:56,920 --> 00:20:59,800 Lunar New Year is a distressing time for many women because 440 00:21:00,040 --> 00:21:02,520 there's only one question they can expect from their extended 441 00:21:02,520 --> 00:21:05,560 aunts and uncles and grandmothers, which is when are 442 00:21:05,560 --> 00:21:07,840 you going to marry to the single and when are you having kids to 443 00:21:07,840 --> 00:21:09,760 the childless? And that seems like that is all 444 00:21:09,760 --> 00:21:11,320 their value. And there's more than that 445 00:21:11,320 --> 00:21:12,840 because of course, you had the one child policy. 446 00:21:12,840 --> 00:21:15,640 And so Chinese women were told one child only for all of these 447 00:21:15,640 --> 00:21:17,640 years. And then suddenly the party 448 00:21:17,640 --> 00:21:20,520 says, actually, you're supposed to have two children. 449 00:21:20,520 --> 00:21:22,960 And now suddenly you're supposed to have three children. 450 00:21:22,960 --> 00:21:25,240 Excuse me, Is this not our business? 451 00:21:25,400 --> 00:21:28,200 Well, apparently not. I was told a young Chinese woman 452 00:21:28,200 --> 00:21:31,360 who I met there said, oh, you know, sometimes the party, you 453 00:21:31,360 --> 00:21:33,680 know, the local party authorities will ring you up and 454 00:21:33,680 --> 00:21:35,480 ask, have you had your period this month? 455 00:21:35,480 --> 00:21:37,640 Seriously. I mean, yes, that level of 456 00:21:37,640 --> 00:21:40,120 intrusion into women's lives. And you know what? 457 00:21:40,280 --> 00:21:41,600 Women don't like that. Yeah. 458 00:21:41,600 --> 00:21:42,640 And are they rebelling against it? 459 00:21:42,640 --> 00:21:44,680 They're not picking up the phone or they're lying or they're, 460 00:21:44,680 --> 00:21:45,880 well, they're giving the wrong answer. 461 00:21:45,880 --> 00:21:47,520 Whatever. They're not having children, No, 462 00:21:47,520 --> 00:21:50,400 because they're because they're not interested and they don't 463 00:21:50,400 --> 00:21:53,040 see why they should be pushed into it, either by their parents 464 00:21:53,040 --> 00:21:56,080 or by their aunties or by the local party secretary. 465 00:21:56,080 --> 00:21:58,000 So these are the limits of social engineering. 466 00:21:58,120 --> 00:22:00,720 Yeah, I can't imagine what's more scary, the the aunties or 467 00:22:00,720 --> 00:22:03,160 the local party secretaries. Both are pretty frightening, 468 00:22:03,160 --> 00:22:05,000 aren't they? Does the does the party know, 469 00:22:05,000 --> 00:22:07,080 does the government know that it's got a problem with social 470 00:22:07,080 --> 00:22:08,440 engineering or do they not get it? 471 00:22:08,560 --> 00:22:10,960 I think they get it and they're willing to pay the costs. 472 00:22:10,960 --> 00:22:13,760 I think that they have consistently decided that's the 473 00:22:13,760 --> 00:22:16,360 one child policy was something that they needed to pursue that 474 00:22:16,360 --> 00:22:18,760 0 COVID was something that they needed to pursue. 475 00:22:19,040 --> 00:22:21,560 Look at these plans, the numbers right there in the name. 476 00:22:21,560 --> 00:22:23,680 There's no ambiguity about what these things could possibly 477 00:22:23,680 --> 00:22:25,640 mean. And they're thinking that by 478 00:22:25,640 --> 00:22:28,920 pressuring women that they are able to produce some sort of 479 00:22:28,920 --> 00:22:31,480 coerced copulation. Now, I don't believe that is the 480 00:22:31,480 --> 00:22:33,800 sort of thing that makes more children, but I think that they 481 00:22:34,000 --> 00:22:36,120 they feel like this the only thing they can do. 482 00:22:36,480 --> 00:22:38,080 And I mean, what are they going to do? 483 00:22:38,080 --> 00:22:40,120 What's the government going to do about the lying down? 484 00:22:40,920 --> 00:22:42,320 How will they infuse people again? 485 00:22:42,400 --> 00:22:45,600 Well, I think that by inciting a lot of Xi Jinping thought at 486 00:22:45,600 --> 00:22:47,480 them, which I also believe is not going to that's. 487 00:22:47,480 --> 00:22:49,120 Going to make you fall fast asleep isn't? 488 00:22:49,280 --> 00:22:51,080 It that that makes me fall fast asleep. 489 00:22:51,080 --> 00:22:53,600 Very, very much so. You know, Xi Jinping is not a 490 00:22:53,600 --> 00:22:56,440 very humorous guy. I don't love listening to him. 491 00:22:56,680 --> 00:22:59,840 And so when he denounces the people for we're not going to 492 00:22:59,840 --> 00:23:02,960 give them too much more money, that might create welfarism, 493 00:23:02,960 --> 00:23:04,880 that might make them be very lazy. 494 00:23:04,880 --> 00:23:06,960 That's something that's those are words that he has used. 495 00:23:06,960 --> 00:23:08,960 He sounds a little bit like Ronald Reagan to me. 496 00:23:09,480 --> 00:23:11,360 But I think there is another thing though, and this one I 497 00:23:11,360 --> 00:23:13,360 found very interesting, which is that there was a survey done 498 00:23:13,360 --> 00:23:17,600 recently, which is that that between 83 and 87% of Chinese 499 00:23:17,600 --> 00:23:20,720 people are very enthusiastic about artificial intelligence, 500 00:23:20,720 --> 00:23:22,640 about AI, which is very different from here in the West 501 00:23:22,640 --> 00:23:27,200 where we're rather afraid of it. And I did find in Liangju, which 502 00:23:27,200 --> 00:23:29,520 was a kind of sort of Silicon Valley area. 503 00:23:29,800 --> 00:23:34,000 I mean, my young woman who, you know, told me about garbage 504 00:23:34,000 --> 00:23:36,520 time. She was developing an AI app for 505 00:23:36,520 --> 00:23:39,280 depressed young people. And then I found these other 506 00:23:39,280 --> 00:23:42,520 young entrepreneurs. One of them had a new app, which 507 00:23:42,520 --> 00:23:48,160 was called Second Me, where your AI avatar meets somebody else's 508 00:23:48,280 --> 00:23:49,480 AI avatar. I mean for. 509 00:23:49,480 --> 00:23:50,920 People, how is that working? I'm not quite. 510 00:23:51,000 --> 00:23:53,040 Sure, maybe they'll have kids, but I don't think they'll have 511 00:23:53,040 --> 00:23:54,280 real kids. Exactly. 512 00:23:54,640 --> 00:23:56,160 That's right. They'll have Avatar kids. 513 00:23:56,440 --> 00:23:59,960 But but there, there is an interest in technology and 514 00:23:59,960 --> 00:24:03,040 particularly in AI amongst young people, even those who are a bit 515 00:24:03,040 --> 00:24:04,920 apathetic. And so I think that there is 516 00:24:04,920 --> 00:24:08,760 some hope in the party that this is a technology which might 517 00:24:08,760 --> 00:24:11,080 infuse young people. I don't know whether that's 518 00:24:11,080 --> 00:24:12,680 likely or not. Well, I think that's something 519 00:24:12,680 --> 00:24:15,920 that is unites both the Chinese as well as the Americans is that 520 00:24:16,160 --> 00:24:19,360 at least the broader population are interested in growth. 521 00:24:19,360 --> 00:24:22,120 I think that they have an interest in making doughnuts and 522 00:24:22,120 --> 00:24:24,400 I think that the elites are also very interested. 523 00:24:24,480 --> 00:24:27,400 Interesting growth. When I look across at much of 524 00:24:27,400 --> 00:24:32,360 the European Union, much of Europe, much of the UK, it 525 00:24:32,560 --> 00:24:34,440 doesn't even seem like people aren't necessarily very 526 00:24:34,440 --> 00:24:36,240 interested in growth anymore. And so that is something that 527 00:24:36,240 --> 00:24:38,840 it's pretty similar about. But it's a difference between, 528 00:24:39,000 --> 00:24:41,520 you know, our young generation and Chinese young generation is 529 00:24:41,520 --> 00:24:44,000 that in, you know, here we worry about or young people worry 530 00:24:44,000 --> 00:24:47,440 about AI replacing the jobs that they thought they were going to 531 00:24:47,440 --> 00:24:50,200 do. Is the case in China that AI 532 00:24:50,200 --> 00:24:52,320 might do all these jobs. And young Chinese people are 533 00:24:52,320 --> 00:24:55,200 saying, go for it, go for a computer, do that job for me, 534 00:24:55,200 --> 00:24:57,080 and I'll do something else. I'll play a video game or watch 535 00:24:57,080 --> 00:24:58,480 a movie. Well, one of the things that's 536 00:24:58,480 --> 00:25:01,400 very challenging for US manufacturing is that might hope 537 00:25:01,400 --> 00:25:03,920 that AI and automation is going to solve all of America's 538 00:25:03,920 --> 00:25:06,560 manufacturing problems. The challenge is that the 539 00:25:06,560 --> 00:25:08,360 Chinese are much more automated already. 540 00:25:08,400 --> 00:25:10,280 They're much better at the algorithms. 541 00:25:10,280 --> 00:25:11,760 They're much better at using robots. 542 00:25:11,760 --> 00:25:15,040 And so it doesn't even seem like they are that much against using 543 00:25:15,080 --> 00:25:17,160 AI to do all their critical tasks. 544 00:25:17,200 --> 00:25:21,040 And, and just do you think think that this lying down generation 545 00:25:21,440 --> 00:25:24,440 phenomena will continue or will there be a kind of natural 546 00:25:24,440 --> 00:25:27,320 entrance at some stage when even young people get bored of lying 547 00:25:27,320 --> 00:25:29,800 down and they will just panic And now that there'll be a 548 00:25:29,800 --> 00:25:32,440 political eruption or there'll be, or they'll try and get back 549 00:25:32,440 --> 00:25:34,360 into the job market. I think it's hard. 550 00:25:34,440 --> 00:25:36,320 Obviously, you know, I can't predict the future. 551 00:25:36,320 --> 00:25:38,360 One of the things I think is really interesting to see, you 552 00:25:38,360 --> 00:25:41,360 cannot oppose the government politically. 553 00:25:41,360 --> 00:25:44,440 You know, if you talk about human rights, LGBTQ rights, 554 00:25:44,440 --> 00:25:46,320 women's rights, then you're in prison. 555 00:25:46,320 --> 00:25:47,360 You know, your head's chopped off. 556 00:25:47,360 --> 00:25:48,440 That's it. It's not going to happen. 557 00:25:49,200 --> 00:25:52,400 But if you talk about mental health and happiness, well, 558 00:25:52,520 --> 00:25:54,720 that's a different thing. And the Chinese Communist Party 559 00:25:54,720 --> 00:25:57,920 has said it is by us to seek happiness for the Chinese 560 00:25:57,920 --> 00:26:00,680 people. So in that sense, you know, 561 00:26:00,680 --> 00:26:05,320 saying that you're unhappy is a is a form of, of rebellion and 562 00:26:05,320 --> 00:26:08,680 the language of human rights, I think has morphed into the 563 00:26:08,680 --> 00:26:11,600 language of well-being and, and mental health. 564 00:26:11,800 --> 00:26:16,520 So I think the real question is when and if the party sees this 565 00:26:16,520 --> 00:26:20,120 generation as a new kind of challenge or threat. 566 00:26:20,160 --> 00:26:22,200 I mean, Gentlemen Square is quite obvious. 567 00:26:22,200 --> 00:26:24,880 There's a bloke standing there with his plastic bag in front of 568 00:26:24,880 --> 00:26:28,600 a tank lying down is its own form of resistance. 569 00:26:28,600 --> 00:26:31,960 And at some point I fear that the the Chinese government will 570 00:26:31,960 --> 00:26:34,840 try and do something about it. And that of course could be more 571 00:26:34,840 --> 00:26:36,960 repression, that could be even more repressive. 572 00:26:36,960 --> 00:26:37,600 I don't know. What do you? 573 00:26:37,600 --> 00:26:41,480 Think I wonder the how about the the opportunities available to 574 00:26:41,480 --> 00:26:43,400 young people. There's no job opportunities, 575 00:26:43,440 --> 00:26:45,920 but there are excellent phone opportunities for them to keep 576 00:26:45,920 --> 00:26:49,680 themselves very entertained. When Xi Jinping denounced TikTok 577 00:26:49,680 --> 00:26:52,840 as spiritual opium a couple of years ago, I think he's right. 578 00:26:53,000 --> 00:26:54,720 He's absolutely right. These things are spiritual 579 00:26:54,720 --> 00:26:56,240 opium. And if all of us are going to be 580 00:26:56,440 --> 00:26:59,200 hanging out with our AI friends because they always text you 581 00:26:59,200 --> 00:27:01,760 back and they will always provide you some cheer, I'm a 582 00:27:01,760 --> 00:27:04,960 little bit worried that many of them will just choose to lie 583 00:27:04,960 --> 00:27:07,200 forever. Dan, do you think the Chinese 584 00:27:07,200 --> 00:27:11,040 government is more afraid of its own people than it is of 585 00:27:11,040 --> 00:27:13,000 anything else? I think that is the scariest 586 00:27:13,000 --> 00:27:16,240 thing to the Chinese government, and This is why you can see that 587 00:27:16,320 --> 00:27:19,520 China's domestic budget for security spending is even 588 00:27:19,520 --> 00:27:21,920 greater than its military spending for the People's 589 00:27:21,920 --> 00:27:25,360 Liberation Army, that there is so much constructed in China to 590 00:27:25,360 --> 00:27:28,440 make sure that the people don't rebel and that there is still so 591 00:27:28,440 --> 00:27:31,840 much repressiveness, really to try to keep a lid on social 592 00:27:32,040 --> 00:27:32,600 tensions. I. 593 00:27:32,960 --> 00:27:35,240 Remember when I was in Beijing when they got the Olympics in 594 00:27:35,240 --> 00:27:38,320 the year 2000, They celebrated and there were armored vehicles 595 00:27:38,320 --> 00:27:41,200 on the streets of Beijing. And I said to my Chinese, fix a 596 00:27:41,200 --> 00:27:44,440 minder, what's going on here? He said the government is afraid 597 00:27:44,440 --> 00:27:47,480 of people even when they're, you know, in the spirit of 598 00:27:47,480 --> 00:27:50,200 jubilation, you know, for the greater good of the nation, They 599 00:27:50,200 --> 00:27:54,120 just distrust large numbers of people showing up with any kind 600 00:27:54,120 --> 00:27:56,280 of show of emotion. This is something that they feel 601 00:27:56,280 --> 00:27:59,080 they have to control right now. China is in a big tiff with the 602 00:27:59,120 --> 00:28:02,080 country of Japan, which they are spend this kind of totally 603 00:28:02,080 --> 00:28:04,760 insane spat that the two countries are going. 604 00:28:05,000 --> 00:28:07,520 And I think that they have to be a little bit nervous about the 605 00:28:07,520 --> 00:28:10,520 sort of nationalism that they release because if they fan up 606 00:28:10,520 --> 00:28:13,120 the national flames against Tokyo, who knows if that might 607 00:28:13,120 --> 00:28:15,040 spread someday to Beijing. OK, couple. 608 00:28:15,040 --> 00:28:17,840 Of things to end on getting back to the kind of race between the 609 00:28:18,160 --> 00:28:22,120 state of engineers and the state of lawyers, Who is winning that 610 00:28:22,120 --> 00:28:24,800 race at the moment? No one is winning and I think 611 00:28:24,800 --> 00:28:28,080 that the race will not be won. There is no gold medal at the 612 00:28:28,080 --> 00:28:31,320 end that there is no because we don't know what it's like to 613 00:28:31,320 --> 00:28:32,720 win. That it's not going to be quite 614 00:28:32,720 --> 00:28:36,480 like the Cold War, in which, as President George HW Bush 615 00:28:36,480 --> 00:28:39,280 declared, the end state is that we win, they lose. 616 00:28:39,360 --> 00:28:42,040 And I think we don't know what winning the AI race will look 617 00:28:42,040 --> 00:28:43,480 like. I think that we don't know what 618 00:28:43,480 --> 00:28:44,960 winning the broader race will look like. 619 00:28:44,960 --> 00:28:47,920 What I want is for the US and China just to be the best 620 00:28:47,920 --> 00:28:50,160 versions of themselves, the level more for the people. 621 00:28:50,160 --> 00:28:52,880 To me, that is winning. But when Chinese, you know, 622 00:28:52,960 --> 00:28:56,000 government officials, scholars, students, engineers are looking 623 00:28:56,000 --> 00:28:59,320 over the water to America, they see a government that is taking 624 00:28:59,320 --> 00:29:02,600 down the the great institutions of American learning is cutting 625 00:29:02,600 --> 00:29:05,200 the funding, you know, of technological, you know, 626 00:29:05,880 --> 00:29:09,240 citadels of excellence. I mean, what are they thinking 627 00:29:09,240 --> 00:29:11,320 is happening? You know, are they saying this 628 00:29:11,320 --> 00:29:13,120 can't be true? The Chinese are helping us out 629 00:29:13,120 --> 00:29:14,480 here. I mean, the Americans are doing 630 00:29:14,480 --> 00:29:16,400 the, you know, our work for them. 631 00:29:16,560 --> 00:29:18,760 To some extent, yes, And I think that is a viewpoint from 632 00:29:18,760 --> 00:29:20,600 Beijing. But I think also the young 633 00:29:20,600 --> 00:29:23,040 people are seeing that the Americans are still building up 634 00:29:23,040 --> 00:29:25,160 all sorts of great tech companies, that there is still 635 00:29:25,240 --> 00:29:29,120 tremendous liberty available to people in the US And that is 636 00:29:29,120 --> 00:29:31,600 still why many young Chinese want to move away, that they 637 00:29:31,600 --> 00:29:34,040 want to move to the US, they want to move to the UK, they 638 00:29:34,040 --> 00:29:36,440 want to move to Chiang Mai to smoke trucks that would be legal 639 00:29:36,440 --> 00:29:39,080 in the state of California because they find that there's 640 00:29:39,080 --> 00:29:41,400 still a little bit too much exhaustion in XI Jinping's 641 00:29:41,400 --> 00:29:43,520 China. Did you find young people who 642 00:29:43,520 --> 00:29:46,440 said to you any chance of coming back with you to the UK or or 643 00:29:46,600 --> 00:29:48,320 moving to America? No, I didn't. 644 00:29:48,320 --> 00:29:51,000 The young people I saw were the ones who tended to be the ones 645 00:29:51,000 --> 00:29:53,640 who had gone from America back to to China. 646 00:29:53,840 --> 00:29:55,360 But on the race, I think that there's two things. 647 00:29:55,360 --> 00:29:58,480 I mean, obviously the Donald Trump is sort of obsessed with 648 00:29:58,480 --> 00:30:00,720 manufacture and he's not in time entirely wrong. 649 00:30:00,960 --> 00:30:02,680 You know when you. Look, but he's a century out 650 00:30:03,200 --> 00:30:04,520 you. Could say he's a century out, 651 00:30:04,520 --> 00:30:08,160 but I think that where he he has a point is on the issue of 652 00:30:08,160 --> 00:30:10,560 robotics. You know, I went to a car 653 00:30:10,560 --> 00:30:14,160 factory, a Gili factory in Ningbo, which is pretty much 654 00:30:14,160 --> 00:30:17,680 automated now that's not going to something like that will not 655 00:30:17,680 --> 00:30:21,640 bring jobs back to America. But you know that kind of 656 00:30:21,640 --> 00:30:25,520 manufacture you know it is important for a country to to do 657 00:30:25,520 --> 00:30:27,400 that. It's important for China, and I 658 00:30:27,400 --> 00:30:29,600 can see why you would want that, why America would. 659 00:30:29,640 --> 00:30:31,520 I can see why this country would want that too. 660 00:30:31,520 --> 00:30:33,560 I mean, we're always trying to get car factories here from the 661 00:30:33,560 --> 00:30:36,520 Japanese or whatever. But the real issue, I think on 662 00:30:36,520 --> 00:30:39,400 tech is going to be when it comes to the military. 663 00:30:39,840 --> 00:30:44,000 And this is where, you know, the the very advanced chips are 664 00:30:44,000 --> 00:30:46,680 important because those are used in precision weapons. 665 00:30:46,720 --> 00:30:49,400 And that means that the weaponry that the Americans are 666 00:30:49,400 --> 00:30:52,120 developing is more advanced. But of course, the People's 667 00:30:52,120 --> 00:30:55,600 Liberation Army is massive and the Chinese are building up a 668 00:30:55,600 --> 00:31:00,880 huge fleet of, you know, for their, their naval fleet. 669 00:31:01,400 --> 00:31:04,760 And so that is the next thing we are going to get into. 670 00:31:04,760 --> 00:31:07,720 And that I think is really scary because we're into high tech 671 00:31:07,720 --> 00:31:08,680 warfare. And. 672 00:31:09,480 --> 00:31:13,640 Reluctant to quote Stalin again, but quantity is a quality all 673 00:31:13,640 --> 00:31:15,040 its own, is something that Stalin said. 674 00:31:15,040 --> 00:31:17,480 And this is something that, you know, when the Chinese are 675 00:31:17,480 --> 00:31:20,440 building right now around 1500 ships, the Americans are 676 00:31:20,440 --> 00:31:23,400 building something like 3. We get these giant disparities. 677 00:31:23,400 --> 00:31:26,080 And I think that that is going to be benefiting the engineering 678 00:31:26,080 --> 00:31:27,920 state. But this is the final question 679 00:31:27,920 --> 00:31:29,400 then. You know, given that China's 680 00:31:29,400 --> 00:31:33,240 building up militarily in the way that, you know, Germany did, 681 00:31:33,360 --> 00:31:35,800 you know, the end of the 19th century, the way that Britain 682 00:31:35,800 --> 00:31:38,800 did just before that, the way that America's done, you know, 683 00:31:38,800 --> 00:31:41,280 right about the Second World War, You know, is this a 684 00:31:41,320 --> 00:31:45,880 military buildup with the idea that that military power will be 685 00:31:45,880 --> 00:31:49,880 used kinetically, as they like to say, in the Pentagon at some 686 00:31:49,880 --> 00:31:51,760 stage? Or just, you know, this is Our 687 00:31:51,760 --> 00:31:54,480 Calling card, We are powerful. We had to be reckoned with. 688 00:31:54,600 --> 00:31:56,840 Well, calling cards only work if you're willing to play it. 689 00:31:56,840 --> 00:31:59,640 And so I think that they are they want to be able to deter 690 00:31:59,640 --> 00:32:01,720 the Americans from doing anything they don't like around 691 00:32:01,720 --> 00:32:03,760 the island of Taiwan. And so I think that this is 692 00:32:03,760 --> 00:32:05,960 something that the Americans also had to feel like they 693 00:32:05,960 --> 00:32:08,160 developed their own calling cards to be able to deter the 694 00:32:08,160 --> 00:32:10,840 Chinese. And let's just hope that things 695 00:32:10,840 --> 00:32:13,400 do not go kinetic and on neither country place they're calling 696 00:32:13,400 --> 00:32:15,240 cards. Lindsay, when you were there, 697 00:32:15,240 --> 00:32:17,880 did you did Did anyone, whether they were young or old, did 698 00:32:17,880 --> 00:32:20,400 they, did you get the impression that they thought they were on a 699 00:32:20,400 --> 00:32:23,920 kind of path towards some kind of civilizational clash with the 700 00:32:23,920 --> 00:32:27,000 West, with America? I got the feeling that they 701 00:32:27,000 --> 00:32:30,000 thought that they were on a technological roll. 702 00:32:30,680 --> 00:32:34,480 But you know that in the Politburo, you know the decline 703 00:32:34,480 --> 00:32:37,680 and fall of the Roman Empire. Everybody has to read it, and 704 00:32:37,680 --> 00:32:39,640 certainly in the party. Is that true? 705 00:32:40,080 --> 00:32:42,000 They. Yeah, they always read that. 706 00:32:42,000 --> 00:32:44,560 They always, they're always fascinated by the decline of 707 00:32:44,560 --> 00:32:46,000 they're. Not reading it in Trump's white. 708 00:32:46,000 --> 00:32:46,960 House. No, they're not they. 709 00:32:46,960 --> 00:32:49,280 Should be maybe? And that's the point because 710 00:32:49,280 --> 00:32:52,960 certainly within the party, they believe that there is an 711 00:32:53,160 --> 00:32:59,040 inevitability that America is in decline and China is on the rise 712 00:32:59,120 --> 00:33:01,960 again, as it was, you know, centuries ago. 713 00:33:02,360 --> 00:33:05,440 And that is how they see history unfolding. 714 00:33:06,080 --> 00:33:09,680 I suspect that it will take long enough that, well, maybe Dan 715 00:33:09,680 --> 00:33:11,480 will be here to see it. I don't know if you and I will. 716 00:33:11,480 --> 00:33:13,520 Be but never underestimate lawyers. 717 00:33:13,800 --> 00:33:15,280 No. OK. 718 00:33:15,480 --> 00:33:17,960 Dan Lindsay Hilson, thank you very much to both of you for 719 00:33:17,960 --> 00:33:19,840 coming in. That's it for the forecast. 720 00:33:19,840 --> 00:33:21,480 I hope you enjoyed it. We'll see you next time.