Iran is the source of all the problem in the Middle East.
If it's gone, it's a huge opportunity.
Where does that leave the 2.2 million people of Gaza, the 3.5
million Palestinians in the West Bank?
You are failing to the same trap, the trap that the source
of the problem in the Middle East is the Israeli Palestinian
conflict. You think it's Iran?
I think it's Iran. The regime collapse will be the
best result of this campaign. But you could get chaos as a
result in Iran. You could get what we had in
Libya or what we had in, you know, Afghanistan.
Nothing will be worse than this regime.
Welcome to this special edition of the Forecast from the hills
above Tel Aviv. There's an awful lot going on,
as you can imagine. We've got the continuing
ballistic duel between Iran and ISO.
We've got still the threat, or perhaps it's a promise of
President Trump getting involved on Israel's side.
And the key question in all this is what would the blowback be
from that involvement, but also what can the Americans actually
achieve in terms of neutralising Iran's nuclear programme?
Well, someone who knows the answers to both of those is
General Amos Yaddin, the only human being alive to be involved
in the neutralisation of two nuclear issues.
One was the 1981 attack on the Asarak nuclear reactor in Iraq,
where he was a fighter pilot and then as head of Israeli
intelligence in 2007. General Yaddin, it's a pleasure
to have you on the on the forecast if the Americans get
involved. But if Trump decides to get
involved in this, what difference will that make?
And what do you think? The reaction could be from Iran
itself or from Hezbollah, for instance.
I think the importance of the American participation has to do
on the technical issue of destroying most of the Iranian
nuclear facilities. There is like 20 sites, Israel
can reach 19 of them. There is one important place
called Fodor which is very much fortified against the most
formidable bombs that Israel possess and it cannot be
penetrate by Israel and the only Air Force that can destroy it is
the American Air Force. So this is about the in generic
part of the House, but the political part is even more
important because if you destroy even 90% of the Iranian
capabilities, the 10%, if you don't do any agreement and you
let the Iranians develop what they want to develop, they will
have the nuclear bomb, not in six months, not in one year, but
in two or three years. So what is important is to reach
a different agreement on Iran nuclear ambitions.
A political agreement. Political agreement.
But can that be done if you push them into a corner?
No, On the contrary, when you push them enough to the corner,
there will be negotiation and Mr. Witkoff will come like
Popeye and they will come with a very weak cards.
So this is the political objective of this campaign and
the Americans, as I say, they can contribute to the in
generica part of the House, but more to the political goal.
And if the Americans get involved, do you think that will
enhance the political strategy of bringing them to the
negotiating table in a weakened position, or could it have the
opposite effect? Let's speak about the American
intervention, because it must. It may be in two forms.
One form is the surgical for door operation, a company with a
message. We are not interested in
destroying Iran. We are not fighting against the
Iranian nation. We are only helping the Israelis
to complete the nuclear mission. Don't even think about
retaliation because then we will go to a full scale war.
The other option is to say the Iranians are going to retaliate.
They may not listen to the message.
Let's pre empt at least on every element of the Iranian
militaries that can attack our forces in Qatar, in Kuwait, in
UAE and make sure that the Iranian retaliation will be as
weak as it can be. From what you know about the
Iranians and what you can imagine their current position
to be like, what do you think they will decide to do?
I think the Iranians were surprised very much from the
attack six days ago. They were in a state of shock,
surprise, but they may getting out of the of the trauma and
craft strategies that will try to take advantage of their
strengths, which is strategic, patient, long wars that will
make the price for the Israelis and for the American higher,
hoping that they will do something like the eight years
of the war against Iraq. However, don't mislead
ourselves, it is not the same Iran.
Most of the Iranians now hate the regime, don't want to go to
even 8 months of war and Iran itself.
In 1988, the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khomeini say I'm
drinking the glass of poison because the Iraqis are now
firing missiles to nozzle and Tehran where the elite is
living. So let's have a look.
Israel have done it not in the in the eight years at the
beginning of the war, in the first or second day.
So I think there will be a lot of pressure on Iran to to end
the war. But we need I think about a week
to see where the regime is going.
What is the decision making process now?
Is the supreme leader really understand what's going on?
You know, in the dictatorial regimes, the bad news are not
going up so quickly and he may see a different picture of the
world that is really there. Was it helpful for Prime
Minister Netanyahu to say, as he did the other day, that, you
know, regime change could be one of the results of this?
Why not go for regime change? And he wasn't exactly calling
for it. He wasn't saying that Israel was
pursuing it, but he said it would be a welcome result.
Was that a helpful thing for him to say?
I think it was very smart not to put the regime change in the
list of the objective of the campaign.
Which he didn't do. Which he didn't do not.
Publicly, anyway, yeah. And I think we are not good in
having instrument to induce a regime change.
The lessons from Iraq, from Afghanistan, from anywhere Libya
is is a is a bad lesson. So it is smart not to put it on
the list. We are also not good in
predicting when it will happen. 19901988 Nobody predict the
collapse of the Soviet Union, nobody predicted the collapse of
the Egyptian President Mubarak or Assad.
So we have to be very modest on that, or after saying that a
regime collapse will be the best result of this campaign.
But you could get chaos as a result in Iran.
You could get what we had in Libya or what we had in, you
know, Afghanistan. Nothing will be worse than this
regime. This regime is very cool.
He has the the goals of wiping Israel off the map is the source
of non non stability in the Middle East.
If there will be a chaos which I'm not sure.
Iran is a state with a tradition of a state.
It is 3000 years old empire that know what they want and if it
will come back to another regime it's maybe taking some time but
they will be busy in their own and they will not endanger Iraq,
Syria, Lebanon, Israel, Yemen and the the western world.
So nothing is worse than this regime point.
Again, if the Americans get involved, is it possible that
the political landscape in the Middle East will be so disrupted
that even those countries that are currently on Israel's side,
or on the fence or on America's side might be forced to
intervene against either Israel or America?
No way, no way. I just came from a defence
conference in Prague. So the Arabs are calling for
stability and we all understand what they want, stability as the
main political phenomena of their regimes, their kingdoms,
the export of oil. However, they will not shed the
tear if Iran will be destroyed. Iran is a man's sweat to the
Gulf States and to any Arab country, any Arab country.
So to your question, I'm I'm look at it exactly from the
other side that if the Iranian regime will be toppled, it's a
huge opportunity for President Trump and for the Arab countries
to shape the Middle East in a new alliance, Arab American
Israel that will end the war in Iran and the war in Gaza, go
forward with normalisation, go forward with non religionist and
Iran is the source of all the problem in the Middle East.
If it's gone, it's a huge opportunity.
Where does that leave the 2.2 million people of Gaza, the 3.5
million Palestinians in the West Bank who are more angry, more
bitter, more upset than they've ever been?
I think you are failing to the same trap, the traps that the
source of the problem in the Middle East is the Israeli
Palestinian conflict. You think it's Iran?
I think it's Iran. I think we cannot solve the
Israeli Palestinian issue because Iran is encouraging the
terrorist group Hamas, Islamic Jihad to spoil any any going
forward. So we have to finish the war in
Gaza, absolutely. But how?
What? But what's on the horizon for
the Palestinians in Gaza or indeed in the West Bank, their
own state, living as second class citizens in a in an
Israeli state? What ideas do you have there?
This is a subject for another interview.
We're coming today to speak about the war, but.
Is that also a problem that needs to be solved?
Of course, of course. And that's what I said.
I said if Iran will be defeated, it's been be much easier to
solve the Israeli Palestinian issue because the terror
organizations that they supported with money, weapon,
ideology will be weaker. And those in the Palestinian
part of the the problems that there is no peace has to do with
Israelis and Palestinians, you know, You know what the
Palestinians are shouting in the in the street of London?
Yeah, Palestine, from the river to the sea.
We also know what the settlers think.
They say Israel from the river to the sea, I mean.
So, OK, so let's weaken those who are against peace and it can
be done only after we finish the war in Iran and we finish the
war in Gaza, we will remove Hamas with against peace against
Two state solution. Two state solution still has
some leverage, so it has a possibility.
Two state solution disappear on the seven of October, but it can
come back. It can come back after we defeat
Hamas. I think there will be
Palestinians that will do the thinking of where it LED them,
the Hamas and the terror way. In my plan that I say you need
another interview, but it was published in November 2023 that
the Gaza Strip will be under an Arab mandate.
It will be managed by Palestinians, technocrat
Palestinians with some connections to the PA.
But it should change the the Gaza Strip into a non
militarized region with an Arab education that is not inciting
for terror and from Palestine, from the river to the sea.
Then we will have a chance for peace.
It's unfortunately a generation from now.
Just getting back to Trump and Israel and Iran, do you think
Trump's somewhat erratic, unpredictable behaviour is
helpful to what Israel wants to achieve here or not?
No, I think Trump is in a dilemma.
On one hand he is against forever wars.
He has the MAGA people make America great against that, want
isolation, don't want America to be involved in the global
affairs. On the other hand, it's he speak
about peace through strength and he thinks that America should
deter Russia and China. This is make America great
again. So who will decide what is the
right interpretation? Who will make what is make
America great again? It's Trump.
So I think at that moment, Trump loves winners.
You know America in history came to rescue countries that fail.
Like ours. Like yours in World War One, in
World War 2, like going to to Kuwait against Iraq.
This is the first time that America can join a war on
national security goal for America but with a winner and
helping them to finish the war. On that question, if they don't
get involved for whatever reason, whether it's the MAGA
camp or they're worried about blowback in the Middle East, can
Israel finish this war on its own terms without Trump's help?
When you say finish, you may ask about achieving all the goals.
This is not easy. It's not easy to destroy, as I
say for though, is. So fordo stays basically.
Fordo may stay, Never underestimate the Israeli
innovation on other means to destroy Fordo, not by the Air
Force, but it will be much difficult to complete the
missions. However, for me it's more
interesting what is the right time that you are in a climax
with your achievement and now you start going down.
You know, even successful wars always look like a big victory
in the beginning, and then it is, it may change.
So Israel must find the times that it achieved most of its
goal and look for a mechanism to end the war.
Of course there is the other side and we discussed the
strategies that the Iranians may choose, but I think we have now
a huge leverage against Iran. We achieve El superiority as a
fighter pilot who believe in El superiority.
What was achieved there is amazing.
El superiority, which Israel has, doesn't mean that they
still can't fire ballistic missiles in Tel Aviv.
No, this is another story. It's the story of the campaign
against ballistic missiles. By the way, Israel has the best
air defense in the world. Ballistic defense.
The Iron David Sling arrow. And intercepting all the drones,
about 99% of the drones, hundred of them that were launched
against Israel were destroyed. So this is also priority in
defence. But we have also priority over
the enemy strategic areas, which is I think will make it very
difficult for the Iranians to adapt a strategy of long war,
war of attrition. Just on their strategy, what do
you think it is at the moment? Because they're still firing
missiles every day and every night.
But a relatively small number, I gather.
Is that because they're worried about running out?
I think it has to do with with both their capabilities were
destroyed, were reduced dramatically.
Once again, as a veteran of 1991, I saw the Americans trying
to to hunt the launchers. And during the whole War 0
success. Really.
Yeah. And here about 50% out of 300
launchers were already. And without launchers, those
missiles are useless, right? Yeah, exactly.
So no doubt that their capabilities went down, but it
also has to do with their intentions.
If they thinking about a long war, they have to have economy
of launching. Yesterday it seems like they
decided that they are going to a very low number of missiles in
every attack to keep the Israelis running to the shelters
and to disturb to disrupt our life.
This morning it was more massive attack.
And of course there is the other side.
We have to make sure that we have enough interceptors and to
do the right decision which of the missiles will be intercepted
and which one you can absorb. Technical question on Fodor, the
the bombs, the American bombs, those NOP bombs, I think they
have 20 of them launched by the B2 bombers.
They can penetrate 60 meters into the ground.
I'm told that Fodor is 80 meters in the ground.
So how does that work? 1st 4 door is under a mountain
and the mountain at the top is if I remember right 110 but you
are not attacking them. Go to the side.
Yeah. You go to the side here, to the
side here when you know that you can penetrate.
And there is also a technique that you drop the first ball
which is doing 60 and then in the same hole you drop the
second ball, so another 60 done. Final question, much of the
world sees this as a a really big moment of peril, you know,
for your two countries, but also for the region ABS beyond.
Is that the way you see it, or do you see it as a moment of
opportunity? I think all the grave
predictions that if Israel attack Iran, there will be at
least regional war and maybe World War Three.
All these predictions were found two pessimistic and not
connected to reality. And you still believe that even
though we don't know whether the Americans have got involved or
not I. Always said that no World War
Three, no regional war, maybe more than Israel and Iran.
If the Iranians will decide to go after their threat to close
the Strait of Hormuz or to attack Americans pay attention
that they are very, very careful.
So I think it's a moment of opportunity if Iran.
Will change if the regime will fail and even if the same regime
will not have this formidable instruments of nuclear program
in the threshold and thousands of ballistic missiles and terror
organization all over the Middle East.
It's a wonderful opportunity to shape the Middle East towards
peace. Let me tell you the the last war
President Trump want very much to have Nobel Prize for peace.
I'm not sure the Norwegians will give it to him.
They would drive him crazy that Obama got it in the first term
in the first year one. 100 days, yeah.
Without doing any contribution to peace.
So he has a plan. His Nobel Prize for peace is a
table with four legs. Ceasefire or peace in Ukraine,
peace in Gaza, agreement with Iran on the nuclear issue and
normalization of Israel and Saudi.
Each one of them is a Nobel Prize for peace.
He want all of them. But pay attention, three of them
are in the Middle East and to shape differently the Middle
East. Iran should be removed and then
the the sky is the limit opportunity wise.
You're an optimist. Let me tell you something.
When I was Chief of Intelligence, I used to brief
President Shimon Peres. And you know when you are chief
of intelligence, you usually put forward the risk and President
Peres, say, Amos, why you are so pessimistic.
The pessimist and the optimist are dying the same but living
differently. General Gandin, thank you very
much indeed. That's it from the special
edition of the forecast in the hills above Tel Aviv.
I hope you enjoyed it. See you next time.