1 00:00:00,040 --> 00:00:02,800 It's a moment of opportunity for the Israelis, and they've got 2 00:00:02,800 --> 00:00:06,120 the president they want in the White House in their corner, so 3 00:00:06,400 --> 00:00:09,600 they're gonna do as much damage as they can, I think, for as 4 00:00:09,600 --> 00:00:13,440 long as they can. Iran and Israel are motivated by 5 00:00:13,440 --> 00:00:16,480 this existential threat that they perceive. 6 00:00:16,560 --> 00:00:19,000 And so that's what's dangerous. And that there could be a a 7 00:00:19,000 --> 00:00:21,920 misstep, A miscalculation, and then we're climbing the 8 00:00:21,920 --> 00:00:25,240 escalation ladder even faster and furiously in a way that we 9 00:00:25,240 --> 00:00:28,640 can't now predict. How close do the international 10 00:00:28,640 --> 00:00:34,040 agencies say Iran had got to being able to deliver a nuclear 11 00:00:34,040 --> 00:00:35,880 weapon? Worryingly close. 12 00:00:39,680 --> 00:00:42,680 Hello and welcome to the forecast as simmering tensions 13 00:00:42,920 --> 00:00:46,360 between Israel and Iran explode in a barrage of missiles and 14 00:00:46,360 --> 00:00:49,560 drones that have killed a number of Iranian nuclear scientists 15 00:00:49,560 --> 00:00:52,160 and military leaders, including the head of the country's 16 00:00:52,160 --> 00:00:55,640 powerful Revolutionary Guard. Nuclear enrichment facilities 17 00:00:55,640 --> 00:00:58,800 were also targeted. Despite ongoing talks between 18 00:00:58,800 --> 00:01:02,760 Iran and the US over its nuclear programme, President Trump said 19 00:01:02,760 --> 00:01:07,040 he gave Tehran chance after chance and urged Iran to make a 20 00:01:07,040 --> 00:01:10,120 deal. Iran retaliated with 100 drones 21 00:01:10,120 --> 00:01:12,160 fired into Israel with more promise. 22 00:01:12,160 --> 00:01:14,480 But so far, all of them seem to have been shot down. 23 00:01:14,680 --> 00:01:18,320 So what is Israel's next move with Prime Minister Netanyahu 24 00:01:18,320 --> 00:01:21,840 saying strikes could continue for as many days as it takes? 25 00:01:22,200 --> 00:01:25,920 To discuss this, I'm joined by our very own Jonathan Rugman and 26 00:01:25,920 --> 00:01:29,120 from the defense think tank RUSI, its senior research fellow 27 00:01:29,400 --> 00:01:32,040 in Middle East security, Burju Oschelik. 28 00:01:32,200 --> 00:01:34,320 Jonathan, first of all, what have they done? 29 00:01:34,560 --> 00:01:37,240 How much damage did we think they have done to Iran's 30 00:01:37,240 --> 00:01:40,440 infrastructure? Well, Prime Minister Netanyahu 31 00:01:40,440 --> 00:01:43,440 of Israel is saying that this operation will take as long as 32 00:01:43,440 --> 00:01:46,120 it takes. So it's still open-ended, which 33 00:01:46,120 --> 00:01:49,760 means that the Israelis themselves have not assessed how 34 00:01:49,760 --> 00:01:53,720 much damage has been done. As we speak, more targets are 35 00:01:53,720 --> 00:01:56,640 being attacked. And I think the Prime Minister 36 00:01:56,640 --> 00:02:00,520 of Israel views this almost as a once in a lifetime opportunity. 37 00:02:00,520 --> 00:02:03,560 He's been talking about doing this for about 15 years. 38 00:02:04,120 --> 00:02:07,880 And I remember during the 2012 Olympics in in in the UK, 39 00:02:08,000 --> 00:02:10,160 British intelligence officials saying their biggest 40 00:02:10,160 --> 00:02:14,560 geopolitical warriors far back as then was Israel attacking 41 00:02:14,560 --> 00:02:16,160 Iran. So now it's happened. 42 00:02:16,480 --> 00:02:19,480 It's a moment of opportunity for the Israelis because they've had 43 00:02:19,480 --> 00:02:24,200 this critical report from the nuclear energy watchdog in in 44 00:02:24,240 --> 00:02:27,320 Vienna and they've got the president they want in the White 45 00:02:27,320 --> 00:02:30,720 House in their corner. So they're going to do as much 46 00:02:30,720 --> 00:02:34,000 damage as they can, I think, for as long as they can. 47 00:02:34,400 --> 00:02:38,400 And perhaps the only break on this won't be how Iran responds 48 00:02:38,880 --> 00:02:41,040 militarily against Israel because it seems to have been 49 00:02:41,040 --> 00:02:44,240 pretty ineffective so far. But the thing might be to watch 50 00:02:44,240 --> 00:02:47,360 would be the oil price and what happens in the Gulf and whether 51 00:02:47,360 --> 00:02:51,080 this becomes more of a global energy security issue. 52 00:02:51,520 --> 00:02:55,920 But you while we wait to see the bomb damage assessment and work 53 00:02:55,920 --> 00:02:59,600 out what they've hit and what they haven't hit yet, what what 54 00:02:59,600 --> 00:03:02,280 we know they've done is they have taken out some very, very 55 00:03:02,280 --> 00:03:06,280 senior figures in the Iranian military, in the Revolutionary 56 00:03:06,280 --> 00:03:08,080 Guard. And these are big totemic 57 00:03:08,080 --> 00:03:09,960 people. I mean, what's the impact of 58 00:03:09,960 --> 00:03:11,360 that? I think the impact is 59 00:03:11,360 --> 00:03:13,960 significant and the concern is that there could be more 60 00:03:14,160 --> 00:03:17,760 targeted assassinations planned in the coming days or weeks. 61 00:03:18,360 --> 00:03:21,520 My sense is that they're they're the planning, the coordination, 62 00:03:21,520 --> 00:03:24,560 the intelligence gathering behind this operation has been 63 00:03:24,560 --> 00:03:28,960 ongoing for quite some time. And this is not sort of a knee 64 00:03:28,960 --> 00:03:31,560 jerk reaction by any means. There's been years in the making 65 00:03:31,840 --> 00:03:34,760 and we've already seen in the scale and the geographic reach 66 00:03:34,880 --> 00:03:38,640 of the, the targeted operation that began last night, a high 67 00:03:38,640 --> 00:03:41,160 level of intelligence penetration, I think in country. 68 00:03:41,560 --> 00:03:45,840 So the Iranians will have to get a sense of how this happened 69 00:03:45,880 --> 00:03:48,920 from the from the inside. It is humiliating and the, and 70 00:03:49,000 --> 00:03:52,680 Tehran will be under immense pressure domestically to to 71 00:03:52,680 --> 00:03:54,920 retaliate, to respond effectively. 72 00:03:55,360 --> 00:03:58,360 But again, there's very delicate balance there because if they 73 00:03:58,360 --> 00:04:03,080 push too hard, if they go too far, how much more can Iran 74 00:04:03,120 --> 00:04:04,880 take? How much more of an attack can 75 00:04:04,880 --> 00:04:06,680 it absorb from from Israel I mean. 76 00:04:06,680 --> 00:04:09,840 These are big, significant totemic people for for much of 77 00:04:09,840 --> 00:04:12,200 the population in Iran. I mean, you know, when Soleimani 78 00:04:12,200 --> 00:04:15,480 was killed, you know, huge outpouring. 79 00:04:15,480 --> 00:04:19,040 You go there, there's a big statue and they've done it 80 00:04:19,240 --> 00:04:24,440 several times over this time. So so I mean, there's the 81 00:04:24,440 --> 00:04:27,040 political impact, but what is the sort of the military impact? 82 00:04:27,040 --> 00:04:30,600 I mean, how important are they, those figures, head of the army, 83 00:04:30,600 --> 00:04:33,400 the head of a Revolutionary Guard, to actually deciding what 84 00:04:33,400 --> 00:04:36,240 Iran does? Well, it limits the strategic 85 00:04:36,240 --> 00:04:39,280 decision making capability and the quick turn around that would 86 00:04:39,280 --> 00:04:42,320 be required to act decisively in a moment like this. 87 00:04:43,120 --> 00:04:45,680 There is the the, the, the prestige, the status, the 88 00:04:45,680 --> 00:04:49,160 reputational issue, of course of losing key figures in the IRGC, 89 00:04:49,800 --> 00:04:51,640 the military commander and deputies. 90 00:04:51,920 --> 00:04:55,240 And we don't know how far Israel will continue to push, whether 91 00:04:55,240 --> 00:04:58,280 there it could involve other political leaders. 92 00:04:58,400 --> 00:05:01,760 And these are recognizable names on on the streets in Iran. 93 00:05:01,960 --> 00:05:05,440 So this fact of the embarrassment, I think will not 94 00:05:05,440 --> 00:05:09,360 be lost upon the people. Iranian public opinion is, as we 95 00:05:09,360 --> 00:05:13,000 know, very divided. So we have the hardliners to use 96 00:05:13,000 --> 00:05:16,920 that expression who will want a strong and decisive response and 97 00:05:16,920 --> 00:05:20,200 others who are critical of the regime and may see this as an 98 00:05:20,200 --> 00:05:24,320 opportunity, a window perhaps to push for political change 99 00:05:24,320 --> 00:05:27,200 domestically. But we're not there yet in my 100 00:05:27,200 --> 00:05:29,080 view. I mean, it's tempting to say, 101 00:05:29,080 --> 00:05:32,240 OK, so Iran and Israel are at war, but that they're not really 102 00:05:32,240 --> 00:05:34,240 at war, are they? Because what Iran has done so 103 00:05:34,240 --> 00:05:38,240 far is very limited. Yes, and we found out last year 104 00:05:38,240 --> 00:05:42,760 when Israel attacked Iran much less decisively and Iran 105 00:05:42,760 --> 00:05:45,280 responded and did very little damage. 106 00:05:45,280 --> 00:05:48,400 The drones achieved almost nothing inside and the missiles 107 00:05:48,400 --> 00:05:51,600 inside Israel itself. And so the question we have to 108 00:05:51,600 --> 00:05:54,200 ask ourselves is, is Iran now a paper tiger? 109 00:05:54,240 --> 00:05:59,000 Is it now so weak that it can't really respond militarily in any 110 00:05:59,000 --> 00:06:01,320 conventional sense? So what does it do? 111 00:06:01,720 --> 00:06:05,520 It might think about asymmetric warfare. 112 00:06:05,520 --> 00:06:09,000 It might have sleeper cells in Europe that it could activate, 113 00:06:09,000 --> 00:06:12,720 attack Jewish civilian targets or embassies. 114 00:06:12,960 --> 00:06:15,320 We just don't know. But the biggest card it has to 115 00:06:15,320 --> 00:06:17,640 play is, I think, the energy card. 116 00:06:17,640 --> 00:06:22,080 And it, and it, it, if it puts a chokehold on the Gulf, makes the 117 00:06:22,080 --> 00:06:25,200 flow of energy to the world's major markets that much more 118 00:06:25,200 --> 00:06:29,280 difficult, then we all start to feel it, you know, prices, 119 00:06:29,280 --> 00:06:31,480 energy prices go up, inflation goes up. 120 00:06:31,480 --> 00:06:33,120 Now, I'm not suggesting they're going to do that. 121 00:06:33,200 --> 00:06:34,600 I don't know what they're going to do. 122 00:06:34,880 --> 00:06:37,080 And they, they must be thinking about that right now. 123 00:06:37,160 --> 00:06:41,960 But, but we don't yet, know, do we, whether Iran is incapable of 124 00:06:41,960 --> 00:06:44,880 hitting back with ballistic missiles the way it did before 125 00:06:45,680 --> 00:06:48,440 because Israel has taken them out effectively, or whether it 126 00:06:48,440 --> 00:06:51,280 just has chosen not to because there's a, there's a calculation 127 00:06:51,280 --> 00:06:54,440 here, isn't there? In that Iran, Israel has done 128 00:06:54,440 --> 00:06:55,880 this by itself. It hasn't done this with 129 00:06:55,880 --> 00:07:01,160 American military power joining in yet, but it obviously wants 130 00:07:01,160 --> 00:07:05,040 the Americans to join in and for that to happen, I guess they are 131 00:07:05,040 --> 00:07:07,200 hoping that there will be a bigger Iranian military 132 00:07:07,200 --> 00:07:09,480 response. Well, that's assuming that 133 00:07:09,720 --> 00:07:12,720 Israel is actually in the business of regime change and 134 00:07:12,720 --> 00:07:14,400 and it really wants to go all the way. 135 00:07:14,840 --> 00:07:17,920 I mean, my suspicion is that, you know, Israeli security 136 00:07:17,920 --> 00:07:19,840 officials call this mowing the grass. 137 00:07:19,840 --> 00:07:22,800 That's the phrase they use. So they're mowing the grass in 138 00:07:22,800 --> 00:07:25,200 Iran. They are making this once in a 139 00:07:25,200 --> 00:07:29,160 lifetime opportunity to do as much damage as possible over the 140 00:07:29,160 --> 00:07:33,240 next few days, possibly into next week, and we don't know. 141 00:07:33,320 --> 00:07:37,400 I don't think that necessarily means that the Israelis want the 142 00:07:37,400 --> 00:07:40,360 ayatollahs to fall. And I don't think the Americans 143 00:07:40,360 --> 00:07:42,680 want that. I don't think Donald Trump wants 144 00:07:42,680 --> 00:07:44,400 that. He wants he wants a deal. 145 00:07:44,400 --> 00:07:48,320 But Israeli weapons can't reach all of the Iranian nuclear 146 00:07:48,320 --> 00:07:49,560 facilities at the moment, can they? 147 00:07:50,160 --> 00:07:52,400 We don't know precisely what they can reach. 148 00:07:52,400 --> 00:07:55,680 I mean, the, the war against Hezbollah in Lebanon last year 149 00:07:55,760 --> 00:07:58,880 suggested that they now have the kind of military technology that 150 00:07:58,880 --> 00:08:02,040 they didn't have a decade ago, which could penetrate, you know, 151 00:08:02,040 --> 00:08:05,360 bunker busting bombs, get deep underground in the way that they 152 00:08:05,360 --> 00:08:08,160 assassinated Sheikh Nasrallah, the, the, the leader of 153 00:08:08,160 --> 00:08:12,240 Hezbollah. Now, the, the, the, the, the 154 00:08:12,240 --> 00:08:15,480 danger for Israel, I suppose, is that this mowing the grass 155 00:08:15,480 --> 00:08:18,200 operation doesn't achieve very much. 156 00:08:18,680 --> 00:08:22,520 And I think that's why they will make it as prolonged as they can 157 00:08:22,520 --> 00:08:26,640 to achieve as many targets as they can until President Trump 158 00:08:26,640 --> 00:08:31,320 says enough is enough. So how, how close do the 159 00:08:31,320 --> 00:08:36,559 international agency say Iran had got to being able to deliver 160 00:08:36,559 --> 00:08:39,039 a nuclear weapon? Worryingly close. 161 00:08:39,240 --> 00:08:41,600 I think the statement earlier this week was the, was the 162 00:08:41,600 --> 00:08:46,240 harshest condemnation of of Iran in in in 20 years and. 163 00:08:46,240 --> 00:08:48,520 We should have known this was coming because Israel was sort 164 00:08:48,520 --> 00:08:53,080 of tweeting away those those reports furiously very much. 165 00:08:53,080 --> 00:08:54,080 So As for. What they? 166 00:08:54,080 --> 00:08:56,920 Were gonna do it, wasn't it? Wasn't a surprise, I think for 167 00:08:56,920 --> 00:09:00,360 close watchers, I think the timing of the attacks raise some 168 00:09:00,360 --> 00:09:03,320 questions because the the nuclear talks between the US and 169 00:09:03,320 --> 00:09:06,400 Iran of selected by Oman, of course, have been ongoing. 170 00:09:06,640 --> 00:09:09,280 The next round was due to take place this this weekend. 171 00:09:09,520 --> 00:09:12,160 So the timing is perhaps surprising. 172 00:09:12,160 --> 00:09:14,960 But again, we've been hearing for months now, if not years 173 00:09:14,960 --> 00:09:18,840 that from the from Israel that this is a strategic window of 174 00:09:18,840 --> 00:09:21,040 opportunity. It's an unmissable historic 175 00:09:21,040 --> 00:09:23,200 moment. And I think President Trump 176 00:09:23,680 --> 00:09:26,440 resisted the temptation to go along with this. 177 00:09:27,160 --> 00:09:29,760 There is a sense at the moment that he could still be hoping 178 00:09:29,760 --> 00:09:33,360 that this creates A leverage to bring Iran back to the table. 179 00:09:33,600 --> 00:09:37,280 And they're really leaning it hard into this hard power 180 00:09:37,280 --> 00:09:41,880 basically to to decimate Iranian the the military commands 181 00:09:41,880 --> 00:09:46,040 potentially into humiliate the regime in front of the public. 182 00:09:46,080 --> 00:09:47,760 When you say very close, I mean what do you mean? 183 00:09:47,760 --> 00:09:51,640 I mean, you mean weeks? It's been hotly debated, hasn't 184 00:09:51,640 --> 00:09:54,120 it? It's, it's weeks, months up to a 185 00:09:54,120 --> 00:09:58,120 year, but it's close. And Prime Minister Netanyahu's 186 00:09:58,120 --> 00:10:01,800 statements even as as recent as last night said that Iran could 187 00:10:01,800 --> 00:10:05,160 be a year away from from from building the bomb. 188 00:10:05,440 --> 00:10:08,920 I think from the Iranian perspective, being seen as a 189 00:10:09,000 --> 00:10:13,560 nuclear threshold state, it's a it's a source of deterrence and 190 00:10:13,560 --> 00:10:16,040 they wanted desperately to be able to hold on to that. 191 00:10:16,320 --> 00:10:19,240 But how close they actually got we, we don't know. 192 00:10:19,240 --> 00:10:20,760 We don't have enough visibility on it. 193 00:10:20,960 --> 00:10:26,440 But the concern now is that with Iran potentially walking away 194 00:10:26,440 --> 00:10:30,680 from the the non proliferation treaty, the NPT, there will be 195 00:10:30,680 --> 00:10:36,440 less access by the International Atomic Energy Agency to monitor, 196 00:10:36,440 --> 00:10:40,240 to verify what Iran is doing, particularly the threat of 197 00:10:40,240 --> 00:10:44,480 undisclosed sites, hidden sites across Iran, uranium enrichment 198 00:10:44,480 --> 00:10:47,120 sites. We will have less insights now 199 00:10:47,120 --> 00:10:49,880 potentially into what Iran is actually up to. 200 00:10:50,040 --> 00:10:53,600 And this creates this lack of visibility, creates a new layer 201 00:10:53,760 --> 00:10:55,880 of complexity going going forward. 202 00:10:56,080 --> 00:10:58,880 So it very much is, I think, an issue of mowing the lawn. 203 00:10:59,040 --> 00:11:03,400 And we have said that if Israel attacks Iranian nuclear 204 00:11:03,400 --> 00:11:07,360 facilities, it will likely be unable to take dismantle the 205 00:11:07,360 --> 00:11:10,360 program out completely, that this will require ongoing 206 00:11:10,360 --> 00:11:13,480 persistent strikes over time. And what is the level of 207 00:11:13,480 --> 00:11:16,640 commitment that the US is willing to to provide to that? 208 00:11:16,640 --> 00:11:18,000 That is a big question now. And. 209 00:11:18,280 --> 00:11:21,000 And, and the gamble that you have with the, you know, with 210 00:11:21,000 --> 00:11:24,360 the, with hitting them every couple of years is that you, you 211 00:11:24,360 --> 00:11:28,120 don't, as you say, really know how far along they are. 212 00:11:28,120 --> 00:11:31,240 You don't know what their new sites deep underground are 213 00:11:31,600 --> 00:11:33,440 achieving. And they could be a lot closer 214 00:11:33,440 --> 00:11:36,600 to it than anybody thinks. And that's, that's the fear. 215 00:11:36,680 --> 00:11:38,720 That's a great fear. So will this now this 216 00:11:38,720 --> 00:11:42,680 embarrassment, this, this the attack on their reputation 217 00:11:42,920 --> 00:11:48,080 regionally as well, will this now spur Iran on to accelerate 218 00:11:48,200 --> 00:11:51,480 its program for a bomb? That's that's the question. 219 00:11:51,480 --> 00:11:54,000 But at the same time, from the Israeli security perspective, 220 00:11:54,280 --> 00:11:57,960 the point of view is we're not only trying to dismantle their 221 00:11:57,960 --> 00:12:01,720 ability to become a nuclear state, but we're also taking out 222 00:12:01,720 --> 00:12:04,360 their ability to retaliate, to hit us back hard. 223 00:12:04,680 --> 00:12:08,000 Even this morning there were news stories about attacks on 224 00:12:08,040 --> 00:12:11,640 Iranian air bases, ballistic missile sites, for example. 225 00:12:11,760 --> 00:12:14,040 So it's not only the nuclear facilities that have been 226 00:12:14,040 --> 00:12:17,400 targeted, but it's a political military leadership and also the 227 00:12:17,400 --> 00:12:20,120 ballistic missile program. It's the ability of Iran to hit 228 00:12:20,120 --> 00:12:23,200 back hard that that Israel is now targeting as well. 229 00:12:23,200 --> 00:12:25,240 I. Mean they they may also have 230 00:12:25,240 --> 00:12:30,040 targeted the them effectively politically because if the 231 00:12:30,040 --> 00:12:33,600 Iranian leadership has been humiliated, key leaders have 232 00:12:33,600 --> 00:12:41,680 been taken out, how close are they to igniting a home grown 233 00:12:42,080 --> 00:12:44,560 rebellion and defiance of the regime? 234 00:12:44,560 --> 00:12:46,000 And how? How feasible is that? 235 00:12:46,520 --> 00:12:50,680 Well, Benjamin Netanyahu in his speech this morning sort of said 236 00:12:50,680 --> 00:12:52,600 my war is not with the Iranian people. 237 00:12:52,600 --> 00:12:55,160 And, and, you know, hopefully, I mean, he, he'd be more or less 238 00:12:55,160 --> 00:12:57,960 said, you know, one day we hope that you, you overthrow your 239 00:12:57,960 --> 00:12:59,800 leaders. I mean, he came pretty close to 240 00:12:59,800 --> 00:13:03,120 saying that. I think it's, well, we've just 241 00:13:03,120 --> 00:13:06,120 found out in Syria, haven't we, We, how unpredictable these 242 00:13:06,120 --> 00:13:09,320 things are, how movements can spring up within a matter of 243 00:13:09,320 --> 00:13:12,840 days. I think it's too early to say 244 00:13:13,000 --> 00:13:16,280 how close that moment is. I mean, the revolution is long 245 00:13:16,280 --> 00:13:19,080 in the tooth. It's been there since 1979, the 246 00:13:19,080 --> 00:13:23,360 Islamic Revolution. And it's there's an enormous 247 00:13:23,360 --> 00:13:26,240 amount of economic hardship in Iran. 248 00:13:26,240 --> 00:13:27,760 And still a huge amount of suppression. 249 00:13:28,120 --> 00:13:29,640 And. Of of all dissent. 250 00:13:29,960 --> 00:13:31,440 And a huge amount of suppression. 251 00:13:31,440 --> 00:13:35,440 So, but you know, what's the other way of looking at it is, 252 00:13:35,440 --> 00:13:38,480 you know, what is going to unite Iranians might be actually what 253 00:13:38,480 --> 00:13:43,320 Israel does in a way that internal dissent, you know, is a 254 00:13:43,320 --> 00:13:46,120 is a different kettle of fish, if you see what I mean. 255 00:13:46,120 --> 00:13:48,040 So I think, I think we just don't know. 256 00:13:48,320 --> 00:13:51,000 How, how does Iran position itself in terms of why it wants 257 00:13:51,000 --> 00:13:53,200 a nuclear weapon? I mean, Israel has always been 258 00:13:53,200 --> 00:13:56,680 very, very clear that they view it as an existential threat 259 00:13:56,680 --> 00:14:00,520 because they firmly believe Iran wants to wipe Israel off the 260 00:14:00,520 --> 00:14:03,040 map. Now you go to Iran and they say, 261 00:14:03,120 --> 00:14:05,720 well, no, we don't, we don't, you know, quite the opposite. 262 00:14:05,720 --> 00:14:07,680 We don't want to destroy Iran. We Israel. 263 00:14:07,680 --> 00:14:10,840 We want Israel to be a genuine democracy and to represent all 264 00:14:10,840 --> 00:14:14,480 the people of the of of of the. Place well, it's a risk of a big 265 00:14:14,680 --> 00:14:16,960 over generalisation. I think there is something quite 266 00:14:16,960 --> 00:14:19,800 similar between the Israeli and Iranian psyches and that they 267 00:14:19,800 --> 00:14:25,840 both have a a sense of great fear of being being annihilated. 268 00:14:25,840 --> 00:14:28,200 I mean, it's it, it and both of them think that. 269 00:14:28,360 --> 00:14:32,280 So I, I don't think it's. And I think therefore the 270 00:14:32,280 --> 00:14:36,160 Iranian nuclear program springs from something that is as much 271 00:14:36,720 --> 00:14:40,000 Iranian as anything else to do with with Israel. 272 00:14:40,320 --> 00:14:44,800 It's been interesting to see the Saudis condemning these Israeli 273 00:14:44,800 --> 00:14:48,200 attacks because there's no love lost between the Saudis and the 274 00:14:48,200 --> 00:14:49,840 Iranians. But nevertheless, I mean, the 275 00:14:50,160 --> 00:14:52,280 Saudis are quite capable of speaking out of both sides of 276 00:14:52,280 --> 00:14:53,800 the mouth. They'll be, they'll be pleased 277 00:14:53,800 --> 00:14:56,640 that the Iranian nuclear program has been set back as a potential 278 00:14:56,640 --> 00:14:59,320 threat to Saudi Arabia. But at the same time, it's an 279 00:14:59,320 --> 00:15:02,920 enormous, the front to, you know, peace and stability in the 280 00:15:02,920 --> 00:15:04,200 region. I mean, just on that, what? 281 00:15:04,200 --> 00:15:05,720 Because, I mean, you're a big Saudi watcher. 282 00:15:05,720 --> 00:15:08,640 I mean, Saudi's been very, very close to the United States. 283 00:15:08,840 --> 00:15:11,240 But it seems, as you say, to have improved its relationship 284 00:15:11,240 --> 00:15:15,200 with Iran recently to the point to which it is a, you know, it 285 00:15:15,240 --> 00:15:20,440 is condemning these Israeli strikes despite Saudi Arabia and 286 00:15:20,440 --> 00:15:23,320 Israel having quite a long history in recent years of 287 00:15:23,320 --> 00:15:24,840 trying to improve their relationship. 288 00:15:25,240 --> 00:15:26,760 What's going on? I mean this is 3 dimensional 289 00:15:26,760 --> 00:15:28,920 chairs. Yeah, I think, I think the war 290 00:15:28,920 --> 00:15:31,920 in Gaza has has completely scuppered any attempt at 291 00:15:31,920 --> 00:15:35,160 reconciliation between Saudi Arabia and and and Iran, Saudi 292 00:15:35,160 --> 00:15:37,920 Arabia, Israel, Saudi Arabia still doesn't recognize Israel. 293 00:15:37,920 --> 00:15:40,560 Normalization with Israel is still a very long way off. 294 00:15:41,120 --> 00:15:45,240 And actually what's happened with Iran may even make that an 295 00:15:45,240 --> 00:15:49,400 even longer process. And so in terms of Trump looking 296 00:15:49,400 --> 00:15:52,040 around the globe and thinking about the deals that he can 297 00:15:52,040 --> 00:15:57,360 strike, you know, Ukraine not going well, Gaza not going well 298 00:15:57,960 --> 00:16:02,480 now, you know, a, a, a nuclear disarmament deal with Iran 299 00:16:02,480 --> 00:16:04,960 arguably not going well either. I mean, the big question is 300 00:16:04,960 --> 00:16:08,760 will, will the Iranians do what Trump wants and fall into line 301 00:16:08,760 --> 00:16:12,080 and, and actually say we are, you know, effectively say we are 302 00:16:12,080 --> 00:16:15,520 now such a paper tiger. We, we are now so powerless that 303 00:16:15,520 --> 00:16:19,640 we will do what you want just to stop a, a, a much wider 304 00:16:19,640 --> 00:16:21,200 conflict. But there's an enormous pressure 305 00:16:21,200 --> 00:16:23,840 from inside the country to do the opposite and to strike back. 306 00:16:24,240 --> 00:16:27,120 What do you make of that? Well, just on the point about 307 00:16:27,120 --> 00:16:30,680 Saudi Iran normalization, which has been underway for for some 308 00:16:30,680 --> 00:16:35,200 time, this matters a great deal. And it's also a natural barrier 309 00:16:35,200 --> 00:16:39,000 or serves as a restraint on Iranian retaliation that would 310 00:16:39,000 --> 00:16:42,720 involve Gulf energy installations or the OR the 311 00:16:42,720 --> 00:16:46,680 Strait of Hormuz, for example. Saudi and other Gulf countries 312 00:16:46,840 --> 00:16:49,760 are firmly opposed to being dragged into this direct 313 00:16:49,760 --> 00:16:52,200 military confrontation between Iran and Israel. 314 00:16:52,200 --> 00:16:56,160 So this matters a great deal. If Iran were to go there, I 315 00:16:56,160 --> 00:16:59,520 think it would be a matter of last resort that they are so 316 00:16:59,520 --> 00:17:02,480 cornered that there are no alternatives because to blow up 317 00:17:02,480 --> 00:17:05,640 the energy infrastructure in the Gulf would be to destroy the 318 00:17:05,640 --> 00:17:09,640 relationship with Saudi Arabia. At a time when Israel is viewed 319 00:17:09,640 --> 00:17:13,520 to be extremely diplomatically isolated in the region and is 320 00:17:13,520 --> 00:17:16,200 acting on its own, it's been described by by many in the 321 00:17:16,200 --> 00:17:19,119 region as as now a rogue state. What's really fascinating is 322 00:17:19,119 --> 00:17:23,680 that both Iran and Israel are motivated by this existential 323 00:17:23,680 --> 00:17:27,599 threat that they perceive. And so that's what's dangerous 324 00:17:27,599 --> 00:17:31,160 and that there could be a misstep, A miscalculation, and 325 00:17:31,920 --> 00:17:34,480 and then we're climbing the escalation ladder even even 326 00:17:34,480 --> 00:17:37,960 faster and furiously in a way that we can't now predict. 327 00:17:38,680 --> 00:17:43,080 But in terms of Iran Gulf normalization, this means that 328 00:17:43,080 --> 00:17:46,760 Iran's options are limited, are more limited than they would 329 00:17:46,760 --> 00:17:49,440 have been a few years ago because there will be backlash 330 00:17:49,440 --> 00:17:53,120 against the Iranian regime if they were to attack, if they 331 00:17:53,120 --> 00:17:58,160 were to damage energy, energy infrastructure and and the price 332 00:17:58,160 --> 00:18:00,920 of oil would would escalate. It hasn't yet. 333 00:18:00,920 --> 00:18:04,120 Thus far, energy prices have not spiked. 334 00:18:04,160 --> 00:18:06,000 They did, but then they then they retreated. 335 00:18:06,000 --> 00:18:07,840 So I think this is the initial reaction. 336 00:18:07,840 --> 00:18:10,760 Now markets are waiting to see what will happen over the next 337 00:18:10,760 --> 00:18:15,240 few days and just how bad the scenario can can can develop. 338 00:18:15,400 --> 00:18:18,600 Now, as Jonathan says, I mean, Netanyahu has been wanting to do 339 00:18:18,600 --> 00:18:21,680 this for years and years and years, and other Israeli leaders 340 00:18:21,840 --> 00:18:24,400 have as well. But there are lots of domestic 341 00:18:24,400 --> 00:18:29,240 political reasons and actually diplomatic reasons why Netanyahu 342 00:18:29,240 --> 00:18:30,800 would want to do this right now, aren't there? 343 00:18:31,520 --> 00:18:34,960 Yes, certainly. What's interesting is that both 344 00:18:35,000 --> 00:18:39,280 Israel and Iran face stiff domestic resistance and and 345 00:18:39,280 --> 00:18:41,640 opposition. From Netanyahu's point of view, 346 00:18:41,640 --> 00:18:46,640 this is a long standing almost, I won't say fixation, but it's 347 00:18:46,640 --> 00:18:50,880 certainly seen as an issue of national interest that is deeply 348 00:18:50,880 --> 00:18:53,880 connected to Netanyahu's own political ambitions, but also 349 00:18:53,880 --> 00:18:57,720 exceeds them in a way as well. Taking out nuclear, Iran's 350 00:18:57,720 --> 00:19:01,640 nuclear ambitions is a long standing Israeli desire, the way 351 00:19:01,640 --> 00:19:03,760 that they define their national interests. 352 00:19:04,440 --> 00:19:08,160 In terms of timing, of course there's the the 60 day deadline 353 00:19:08,160 --> 00:19:11,640 that Trump had set that passed this week. 354 00:19:12,320 --> 00:19:14,280 And I think from the Israeli perspective, they are now 355 00:19:14,280 --> 00:19:16,760 defending that timeline and it has passed. 356 00:19:16,760 --> 00:19:20,240 And so this is now a call to action that is seen as as being 357 00:19:20,240 --> 00:19:23,880 justifiable. But it's very unclear as to 358 00:19:23,880 --> 00:19:26,640 whether this will push the Iranians back to the negotiating 359 00:19:26,640 --> 00:19:28,840 table. But, but I mean, Netanyahu knows 360 00:19:28,840 --> 00:19:31,760 that both his internal critics and his external critics will 361 00:19:31,760 --> 00:19:36,640 tend to see the Iran issue and the Gaza issue, around which 362 00:19:36,640 --> 00:19:39,000 he's drawing huge amounts of criticism, is very, very 363 00:19:39,000 --> 00:19:42,440 different. And and while he's he's under 364 00:19:42,440 --> 00:19:45,360 fire from former prime ministers, political opposition, 365 00:19:45,480 --> 00:19:48,320 his his own population who wanted to settle that war 366 00:19:48,880 --> 00:19:51,480 quickly, and he's under pressure from Britain and France and 367 00:19:51,480 --> 00:19:56,960 Canada over Gaza. This is an issue around which 368 00:19:57,040 --> 00:19:59,280 all of those critics suddenly go, oh, OK, fine. 369 00:19:59,280 --> 00:20:01,400 You gotta well. Up to a point, Chris, I mean, 370 00:20:01,600 --> 00:20:04,240 it's interesting that Benny Gantz, 1 of Netanyahu main 371 00:20:04,240 --> 00:20:07,800 rivals has come out with full support for Netanyahu. 372 00:20:07,800 --> 00:20:09,480 So you're right. There's, you know, this, this is 373 00:20:09,480 --> 00:20:12,560 a, if it's an existential threat that we're talking about. 374 00:20:12,560 --> 00:20:15,640 Existential threats tend to bring people together, don't 375 00:20:15,640 --> 00:20:17,680 they? But on the international front, 376 00:20:17,680 --> 00:20:22,440 it's an interesting one for the UK because last year British 377 00:20:22,440 --> 00:20:26,000 jets were involved in protecting Israel from Iranian attacks. 378 00:20:26,400 --> 00:20:27,920 Are they going to get involved this time? 379 00:20:28,720 --> 00:20:29,960 Well, they've said no. They've they've, they've 380 00:20:30,000 --> 00:20:32,440 explicitly said that they weren't involved in defending 381 00:20:32,440 --> 00:20:33,320 Israel. Haven't they? 382 00:20:33,320 --> 00:20:35,320 Not so far. But, you know, we don't know 383 00:20:35,320 --> 00:20:37,760 whether there's going to be an intensification of, of the 384 00:20:37,760 --> 00:20:40,240 attacks that perhaps the Iranians didn't launch last last 385 00:20:40,240 --> 00:20:42,800 year or in fact, whether the Iranians have shown that they 386 00:20:42,800 --> 00:20:44,840 don't have very much the damage that they can do. 387 00:20:45,360 --> 00:20:48,120 And I think it will be quite possible for the for the Brits 388 00:20:48,120 --> 00:20:50,600 to sit this one out in the sense that I mean, these the Israelis 389 00:20:50,600 --> 00:20:55,000 have already proved what, what they can do ostensibly on their 390 00:20:55,000 --> 00:20:56,960 own. No doubt there was some U.S. 391 00:20:56,960 --> 00:21:00,760 intelligence involved, certainly US more than US awareness, 392 00:21:01,000 --> 00:21:03,400 because every time Israel does anything in the Middle East, the 393 00:21:03,400 --> 00:21:07,400 Americans have to be informed for the safety of U.S. troops, 394 00:21:07,560 --> 00:21:15,040 US aircraft carriers and so on. So arguably this the point of 395 00:21:15,040 --> 00:21:18,120 sort of maximum pressure from the Brits over the Gaza issue. 396 00:21:18,280 --> 00:21:22,360 Yes, it's possible the Brits get sucked into defending Israel 397 00:21:22,360 --> 00:21:24,280 from Iran. Well, we've already seen Macron 398 00:21:24,280 --> 00:21:26,880 sort of flipping the script. You know, he's been hugely 399 00:21:26,880 --> 00:21:31,520 critical of Israel over Gaza, but he comes around on side when 400 00:21:31,520 --> 00:21:34,440 it comes to Iran. Yes, and, and, and, you know, 401 00:21:34,480 --> 00:21:38,080 Netanyahu is often several steps ahead of everybody else in in, I 402 00:21:38,080 --> 00:21:40,120 think thinking through how these things are going to play out. 403 00:21:40,160 --> 00:21:41,960 What, what does this tell us about the relationship with 404 00:21:41,960 --> 00:21:44,000 America as well? I mean, what, what we've seen in 405 00:21:44,000 --> 00:21:47,480 reality is American president after American president unable 406 00:21:47,960 --> 00:21:50,520 to really tell Netanyahu what to do. 407 00:21:51,120 --> 00:21:52,520 Is that what's happened here again? 408 00:21:53,960 --> 00:21:56,200 Well, the issue is that, you know, over the past few weeks, 409 00:21:56,200 --> 00:21:58,720 we've been hearing a lot about there being this divide between 410 00:21:58,720 --> 00:22:01,040 Netanyahu and Trump, that they had fallen out, that Trump 411 00:22:01,040 --> 00:22:03,720 wasn't pleased with the way in which Netanyahu was handling 412 00:22:03,960 --> 00:22:07,000 Gaza, that there was a lack of a ceasefire on the ground, that 413 00:22:07,000 --> 00:22:10,800 the situation was deteriorating rapidly and, and, and, and Trump 414 00:22:10,800 --> 00:22:12,000 wanted to end it because, I mean. 415 00:22:12,000 --> 00:22:15,480 Trump said openly this week he didn't want Israel to hit Iran. 416 00:22:15,960 --> 00:22:19,880 That's right. But at the same time, Trump is 417 00:22:19,960 --> 00:22:24,880 is also restrained in that he has his own base is divided into 418 00:22:24,880 --> 00:22:27,080 the MAGA camp, right. And in terms of the 419 00:22:27,080 --> 00:22:31,000 isolationists and those who are more hawkish with respect to 420 00:22:31,080 --> 00:22:34,040 Iran policy. And so there will be those who 421 00:22:34,360 --> 00:22:39,640 not publicly but discreetly are in favour of humiliating Iran in 422 00:22:39,640 --> 00:22:42,760 this way of dismantling or at least eroding its nuclear 423 00:22:42,760 --> 00:22:45,600 program significantly and buying time. 424 00:22:45,920 --> 00:22:49,400 A weaker Iran is dangerous because it's it's more 425 00:22:49,400 --> 00:22:53,520 unpredictable. But also could it open the door 426 00:22:53,520 --> 00:22:56,640 for negotiations? I think it's too soon to tell. 427 00:22:56,840 --> 00:23:01,160 We don't have any idea of what an off ramp would look like for 428 00:23:01,280 --> 00:23:05,200 any type of face saving measure for Iran to walk back from this. 429 00:23:06,160 --> 00:23:09,640 The argument could be made that the regime is is doing it in 430 00:23:09,640 --> 00:23:12,320 favor in for the sake of avoiding all out regional 431 00:23:12,320 --> 00:23:14,760 escalation. But at the same time the 432 00:23:14,760 --> 00:23:18,920 pressure to act domestically. On the US side though, I think 433 00:23:18,920 --> 00:23:22,360 again very divided, much like the domestic, the constituencies 434 00:23:22,360 --> 00:23:26,240 in in Israel and Iran, the US base is also divided as to where 435 00:23:26,240 --> 00:23:29,880 they stand on, on Israel and Iran. 436 00:23:31,840 --> 00:23:35,360 Yeah. I mean, I think the Iranians are 437 00:23:35,360 --> 00:23:38,720 really in a corner now because they've got to be seen to be 438 00:23:38,720 --> 00:23:41,520 doing something. But what? 439 00:23:41,920 --> 00:23:45,480 And do they really want to escalate the situation into an 440 00:23:45,480 --> 00:23:47,960 attack on Israel, which is so successful? 441 00:23:48,080 --> 00:23:52,120 If it is successful, that brings America in to a wider conflict. 442 00:23:52,560 --> 00:23:54,560 And so we're still in the situation we've been in for 443 00:23:54,560 --> 00:23:56,800 really quite a long time, I think, which is that nobody 444 00:23:56,800 --> 00:24:03,400 really wants a wider war. Israel wants to reduce Iran's 445 00:24:03,400 --> 00:24:06,240 nuclear capability to a point where it will take years and 446 00:24:06,240 --> 00:24:08,080 years and years for it to be restored. 447 00:24:08,080 --> 00:24:11,880 And it seems to be saying go hang to diplomacy, go hang to 448 00:24:11,880 --> 00:24:14,760 monitoring facilities, which has been going on for years. 449 00:24:14,760 --> 00:24:17,480 And and you know, we're going to do this militarily. 450 00:24:17,680 --> 00:24:22,520 And the risk for in all of this is is a miscalculation that that 451 00:24:22,520 --> 00:24:25,040 we know we have AUS president who says he doesn't want wars. 452 00:24:25,040 --> 00:24:29,480 He's there to stop wars, but nevertheless, he acts in such an 453 00:24:29,480 --> 00:24:32,120 unpredictable way. And so suddenly he flips and he 454 00:24:32,120 --> 00:24:34,560 said one minute and he says, you know, he doesn't want war with, 455 00:24:34,640 --> 00:24:36,320 with Iran. And the next minute he says, 456 00:24:36,320 --> 00:24:38,200 well, kind of the Iranians had this coming. 457 00:24:38,200 --> 00:24:42,160 We tried to negotiate and be prepared for even tougher 458 00:24:42,160 --> 00:24:43,880 attacks to come in the in the days ahead. 459 00:24:44,320 --> 00:24:48,920 So in the same way that on tariffs, he changed his mind, 460 00:24:48,920 --> 00:24:52,800 he, he prevaricated, he, he tried to negotiate. 461 00:24:52,960 --> 00:24:55,080 He could switch again within a matter of days. 462 00:24:55,080 --> 00:24:59,040 He could say, you know, say to the Israelis, it really is time 463 00:24:59,040 --> 00:25:01,400 for this to stop. And I think, however bad the 464 00:25:01,400 --> 00:25:05,600 relationship between Netanyahu and Trump is, I think Netanyahu 465 00:25:05,600 --> 00:25:08,800 really believes that Trump is the best American president 466 00:25:08,800 --> 00:25:12,520 Israel has ever had and would probably do what he was told in 467 00:25:12,520 --> 00:25:14,760 the final analysis. In in the build up to military 468 00:25:14,760 --> 00:25:17,720 action last year, it was all about how Iran had become the 469 00:25:17,720 --> 00:25:21,240 regional power and was able to cause trouble on multiple 470 00:25:21,240 --> 00:25:27,280 fronts, whether it was Yemen, Syria, Gaza, what, what's the 471 00:25:27,280 --> 00:25:30,000 reality of the power of, of Iran now? 472 00:25:30,080 --> 00:25:32,480 I mean, has it been massively degraded in terms of what it can 473 00:25:32,480 --> 00:25:34,080 achieve? You know, there are still 474 00:25:34,080 --> 00:25:38,000 missiles being fired by the Houthis regularly as Israel, and 475 00:25:38,000 --> 00:25:39,320 they get shot down after the sky. 476 00:25:39,960 --> 00:25:41,240 So can they actually do any damage? 477 00:25:42,240 --> 00:25:45,120 Well, it's the paper tiger argument, but the question is, 478 00:25:45,120 --> 00:25:48,800 have we overestimated Iran's military capabilities over time, 479 00:25:49,040 --> 00:25:52,480 or has the Israeli assault been so effective that they have been 480 00:25:53,160 --> 00:25:55,760 downgraded significantly? I think what Iran has done quite 481 00:25:55,760 --> 00:25:59,520 problematically is use the the territory of neighboring Arab 482 00:25:59,520 --> 00:26:02,760 states as launching pads of attacks against against Israel 483 00:26:02,800 --> 00:26:05,160 in those countries, those domestic populations that have 484 00:26:05,160 --> 00:26:09,160 suffered as a result because of Iran's use of its forward 485 00:26:09,800 --> 00:26:12,680 deterrence policy. And it's leaning into these 486 00:26:12,680 --> 00:26:16,200 armed non state actors that has significantly been eroded over 487 00:26:16,200 --> 00:26:18,360 the course of the war, since the start of the war in Gaza. 488 00:26:18,960 --> 00:26:22,520 And without that, in the absence of it, where does that leave 489 00:26:22,520 --> 00:26:25,240 Iranian capabilities is, is the question. 490 00:26:25,600 --> 00:26:28,880 And that we will I think have an answer to in the coming hours, 491 00:26:28,880 --> 00:26:32,400 in the coming days, contingent on how Iran responds. 492 00:26:32,400 --> 00:26:35,920 We've, we've heard a lot about tracking Iran's ballistic 493 00:26:36,080 --> 00:26:40,320 missile program, its armed drone program, but will it be able to 494 00:26:40,320 --> 00:26:44,600 use these to high effect? Or is the ongoing assault that 495 00:26:44,600 --> 00:26:48,360 the Israelis are now conducting to limit the retaliatory strike 496 00:26:48,360 --> 00:26:51,120 capability? Will that mean that Iran is is 497 00:26:51,120 --> 00:26:53,760 now cornered? There's already talk in regional 498 00:26:54,040 --> 00:26:58,080 media in Turkey and in many Arab countries, you know, questioning 499 00:26:58,240 --> 00:27:02,240 how it was that Iran wasn't able to respond last night to deter 500 00:27:02,240 --> 00:27:04,040 these attacks. Where is the intelligence 501 00:27:04,040 --> 00:27:06,880 failure coming from? So there's some serious internal 502 00:27:07,320 --> 00:27:10,040 questioning going on as well. Or we can expect to see that 503 00:27:10,720 --> 00:27:12,160 and. What an amazing night for 504 00:27:12,160 --> 00:27:14,640 Mossad. I mean, I mean, we've had years 505 00:27:14,640 --> 00:27:18,320 of assassination attempts on and successful attempts on 506 00:27:18,880 --> 00:27:21,400 Revolutionary Guard commanders, nuclear scientists. 507 00:27:21,640 --> 00:27:24,000 But this, this, I mean, this the last 24 hours. 508 00:27:24,000 --> 00:27:26,600 And, you know, we thought the walkie-talkie attack on, on 509 00:27:26,640 --> 00:27:29,520 Hezbollah members in Lebanon was, was of a different league. 510 00:27:29,760 --> 00:27:35,000 But to take out, to use a crude phrase, at least six nuclear 511 00:27:35,000 --> 00:27:38,200 scientists, the head of the army, the head of the 512 00:27:38,200 --> 00:27:41,560 Revolutionary Guard, I mean, every man who takes on that job 513 00:27:41,560 --> 00:27:44,400 is, is a dead man walking. I mean, because, you know, the 514 00:27:44,400 --> 00:27:47,560 Iranians have, the Israelis have shown that they are so capable 515 00:27:47,560 --> 00:27:51,560 now of penetrating, you know, the, the upper echelons of the 516 00:27:51,920 --> 00:27:53,760 Iranian elite. Yes, I mean it's a striking 517 00:27:53,760 --> 00:27:58,680 contrast with the massive failure incompetence around Gaza 518 00:27:59,320 --> 00:28:02,120 on October the 7th and the threat right on their doorstep 519 00:28:02,120 --> 00:28:05,480 by comparison to the one in in Tehran. 520 00:28:05,480 --> 00:28:07,720 Just finally, I mean, because the other thing I think, you 521 00:28:07,720 --> 00:28:12,680 know, people will be worried about watching this is if you're 522 00:28:12,680 --> 00:28:15,840 right and Iran's military capability is significantly 523 00:28:15,840 --> 00:28:21,120 degraded, it may well turn to asymmetric warfare supporting 524 00:28:21,120 --> 00:28:25,680 terrorism. What do we know about their sort 525 00:28:25,680 --> 00:28:30,000 of ongoing ability to do that? Well, obviously there have been 526 00:28:30,000 --> 00:28:34,520 various cases in the UK of Iranian journalists targeted, 527 00:28:34,520 --> 00:28:39,400 followed, threatened. I think the Iranians have had 528 00:28:39,400 --> 00:28:42,280 sleeper cells in Europe for a long time. 529 00:28:42,760 --> 00:28:46,440 They've in the past shown the ability to attack museums or 530 00:28:46,440 --> 00:28:51,800 attack Jewish tourists. But I think the risk for them is 531 00:28:51,800 --> 00:28:58,000 that asymmetric warfare, if it's waged by Iran, will reap more 532 00:28:58,120 --> 00:29:00,920 symmetric warfare from the Americans themselves. 533 00:29:00,920 --> 00:29:02,520 I think that's that's the risk for them. 534 00:29:02,520 --> 00:29:04,320 My guess is they don't want to go there. 535 00:29:05,160 --> 00:29:08,760 You know, there there are various soft targets, museums 536 00:29:08,880 --> 00:29:13,040 across Europe, embassies perhaps What? 537 00:29:13,040 --> 00:29:14,320 We just have to hope that doesn't happen. 538 00:29:15,160 --> 00:29:19,120 I would add to that the possibility of an Iranian LED 539 00:29:19,120 --> 00:29:22,360 cyberattack on critical national infrastructure in Europe, in the 540 00:29:22,360 --> 00:29:26,280 United States, depending on Tehran's strategic calculus as 541 00:29:26,280 --> 00:29:29,960 to whether to target West, the West or to keep it more limited 542 00:29:30,320 --> 00:29:32,680 to Israel. So cyberattacks, potential 543 00:29:32,680 --> 00:29:36,720 states supported terrorism. And also I think we need to keep 544 00:29:36,720 --> 00:29:39,920 in mind that the the Houthi threats in in Yemen and the Red 545 00:29:39,920 --> 00:29:43,640 Sea in terms of maritime security is, is very much live. 546 00:29:43,800 --> 00:29:48,040 And could that then draw in the US and the UK and allies and 547 00:29:48,040 --> 00:29:52,200 defending the Red Sea and that strategic checkpoints there? 548 00:29:52,520 --> 00:29:54,640 I think that is something to watch as well. 549 00:29:55,200 --> 00:29:57,960 Thank you both very much indeed. That's it for this episode of 550 00:29:57,960 --> 00:30:00,200 The Forecast. Until next time, bye bye.