1 00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:03,440 Nowhere in the world is safe from the economic disruption 2 00:00:03,440 --> 00:00:06,080 that will come from this that will, first of all, hit by 3 00:00:06,080 --> 00:00:08,800 energy prices and is already hitting by energy prices, but 4 00:00:08,800 --> 00:00:11,160 then will impact everything that energy goes into. 5 00:00:11,160 --> 00:00:13,440 Because we don't know how long this is going to last for, 6 00:00:13,440 --> 00:00:16,120 because we don't know what President Trump really wants out 7 00:00:16,120 --> 00:00:18,920 of it. It is very very hard to see what 8 00:00:18,920 --> 00:00:21,440 the bottom is. The society resilience in the 9 00:00:21,440 --> 00:00:24,320 United States is really low. We're not a good country for 10 00:00:24,360 --> 00:00:26,920 problems. And with a midterm election 11 00:00:26,920 --> 00:00:29,040 coming up, the president's going to be in a lot of trouble, in my 12 00:00:29,040 --> 00:00:31,200 opinion, so this has to work quickly. 13 00:00:34,160 --> 00:00:36,320 Hello, and a very warm welcome to the forecast. 14 00:00:36,320 --> 00:00:40,120 I'm Alex Thompson in Jerusalem. Now, as you may just have heard, 15 00:00:40,640 --> 00:00:43,920 Donald Trump has imposed his blockade on the economically 16 00:00:43,920 --> 00:00:47,360 vital Straits of Hormuz. Or has he? 17 00:00:47,760 --> 00:00:51,480 We know that since the blockade came into place, several 18 00:00:51,480 --> 00:00:54,880 vessels, including one Chinese and several flight to Iran have 19 00:00:54,880 --> 00:00:57,640 passed through. So how is this blockade working? 20 00:00:57,800 --> 00:01:00,480 Why has he done it and how long is it going to last for? 21 00:01:01,000 --> 00:01:04,200 Well, we're lucky enough to be joined by the retired US Rear 22 00:01:04,200 --> 00:01:08,280 Admiral Mark Montgomery and the contributing editor and Times 23 00:01:08,280 --> 00:01:11,040 columnist Cindy Yu. Cindy and Mark, thanks very much 24 00:01:11,040 --> 00:01:15,040 for being with us Mark, as we have the the luxury of your long 25 00:01:15,040 --> 00:01:19,280 time expertise as a naval man. Just as I think when people 26 00:01:19,280 --> 00:01:22,480 think of a naval blockade, they think of large grey vessels with 27 00:01:22,480 --> 00:01:26,320 guns sitting outside somebody's harbour with somebody, I don't 28 00:01:26,320 --> 00:01:29,360 know on a loud hailer saying you are hereby blockaded. 29 00:01:29,480 --> 00:01:31,840 This isn't quite what it's all about, is it? 30 00:01:32,240 --> 00:01:33,680 No, it isn't. And that's because what we're 31 00:01:33,680 --> 00:01:38,600 blockading are vessels transiting from an Iranian port 32 00:01:38,600 --> 00:01:43,120 to another port, either carrying, you know, oil, some 33 00:01:43,120 --> 00:01:45,320 kind of fossil fuel, maybe fertilizers. 34 00:01:45,760 --> 00:01:48,360 And therefore we can intercept them wherever we want. 35 00:01:48,360 --> 00:01:51,080 In fact, I if I were the Commodore in charge, I would 36 00:01:51,120 --> 00:01:54,200 probably back off a little bit from the Iranian ports 37 00:01:54,200 --> 00:02:00,800 themselves and do the the the detentions and the seizures some 38 00:02:00,800 --> 00:02:03,520 distance away. Eventually that ship has to go 39 00:02:03,520 --> 00:02:06,200 to the port that it's intended to go to, and you can you can 40 00:02:06,200 --> 00:02:07,880 grab it almost anywhere along the way. 41 00:02:08,360 --> 00:02:11,800 So the military in there by the political, economic objective, 42 00:02:11,800 --> 00:02:15,280 just to be absolutely crystal clear, is not obviously to block 43 00:02:15,280 --> 00:02:18,480 off trade from the straight, it's actually to open it to 44 00:02:18,520 --> 00:02:24,640 everybody bar Iranian vessels. What it is, is, is Iran said you 45 00:02:24,640 --> 00:02:28,200 cannot transit through here if you're from certain countries or 46 00:02:28,200 --> 00:02:31,920 if you're from other countries and haven't paid a toll or if 47 00:02:31,920 --> 00:02:34,720 you're Iranian. So, you know, what they did was 48 00:02:34,720 --> 00:02:38,600 they illegally, you know, in contravention of maritime law, 49 00:02:39,360 --> 00:02:42,400 prevented what's called transit passage to an international 50 00:02:42,400 --> 00:02:45,040 waterway. And in doing that, you know, the 51 00:02:45,040 --> 00:02:47,640 United States said, well, look, we have two things we can do. 52 00:02:47,840 --> 00:02:50,320 We can either force our way open, you know, go back to a 53 00:02:50,320 --> 00:02:54,400 kinetic conflict, knock back your forces, do a pay, you know, 54 00:02:54,560 --> 00:02:57,280 what would probably end up being a a challenging convoy 55 00:02:57,280 --> 00:03:01,400 operation, which we may do anyway eventually, or we can 56 00:03:01,400 --> 00:03:04,080 say, you know, a pox on both your houses. 57 00:03:04,080 --> 00:03:07,760 It we're going to prevent you. Those ships that are illegally 58 00:03:07,760 --> 00:03:10,400 trans, you know, that are paying a toll, which is in 59 00:03:10,400 --> 00:03:11,960 contravention of international law. 60 00:03:12,200 --> 00:03:18,200 We can block them, you know, detain them and ship, ship them 61 00:03:18,200 --> 00:03:20,800 off to a third party port to determine what to do with them. 62 00:03:21,520 --> 00:03:22,280 Right. Thanks, Mark. 63 00:03:22,280 --> 00:03:24,880 Well, now, Cindy, I'm sure you've heard what Mark's just 64 00:03:24,880 --> 00:03:27,840 laid out. It sounds, to put it gently, a 65 00:03:27,840 --> 00:03:31,160 little bit complex. An awful lot of things could go 66 00:03:31,160 --> 00:03:34,120 very badly wrong, it would seem. With that, what do you what do 67 00:03:34,120 --> 00:03:36,880 you make of it? Yeah, it could go wrong. 68 00:03:36,880 --> 00:03:40,640 And especially when Trump seems to be wanting to bring other 69 00:03:40,640 --> 00:03:43,960 countries into it because let's be clear, some of the ships 70 00:03:43,960 --> 00:03:48,440 leaving Iranian ports are going to Iran's friends in the world. 71 00:03:48,440 --> 00:03:51,480 That's including China, but also India and Pakistan. 72 00:03:51,680 --> 00:03:55,640 So you're bringing more countries into this conflict by 73 00:03:55,640 --> 00:03:59,800 basically hijacking what little oil can get out of Iran at the 74 00:03:59,800 --> 00:04:03,360 moment with the hope that Iran will be the ultimate victim of 75 00:04:03,360 --> 00:04:06,040 this. And it is estimated that Iran 76 00:04:06,040 --> 00:04:10,040 might lose $13 billion a month in lost imports and exports 77 00:04:10,040 --> 00:04:12,880 through a blockade like this. But at the same time, you're 78 00:04:12,880 --> 00:04:15,520 hurting other countries that so far have stayed neutral. 79 00:04:15,960 --> 00:04:17,839 And in particular, China is the big one here. 80 00:04:17,839 --> 00:04:20,839 You know, what do you do? As we are seeing today, and this 81 00:04:20,839 --> 00:04:23,800 is a situation still evolving, what do you do when a ship 82 00:04:24,000 --> 00:04:27,520 leaves an Iranian port, supposedly heading for a Chinese 83 00:04:27,640 --> 00:04:31,040 refinery and actually now seems to be stopped on the other side 84 00:04:31,040 --> 00:04:35,040 of the Strait of Hormuz, Whereas Mark says they, the Navy, the US 85 00:04:35,120 --> 00:04:38,400 Navy may be be doing some kind of action there to stop them 86 00:04:38,400 --> 00:04:40,600 from moving on. You know, what Does that really 87 00:04:40,600 --> 00:04:43,320 happen? How will that work in the future 88 00:04:43,320 --> 00:04:45,000 with more and more vessels to stop like this? 89 00:04:45,000 --> 00:04:48,440 Will China really accept it? And you have to also bear in 90 00:04:48,440 --> 00:04:50,960 mind that actually the US and China are meant to be seeing 91 00:04:50,960 --> 00:04:54,800 each other next month for this kind of trade war discussion, 92 00:04:54,800 --> 00:04:57,640 which now will also will seem so 2025, doesn't it? 93 00:04:58,440 --> 00:05:01,600 So, you know, there's, there's just a lot of kind of escalation 94 00:05:01,600 --> 00:05:04,520 potential here that I, I don't know, nobody really knows how it 95 00:05:04,520 --> 00:05:07,120 will play out. Just prior to us putting in this 96 00:05:07,360 --> 00:05:13,080 blockade and you know the what, what Iran had established was a 97 00:05:13,080 --> 00:05:18,400 very illegal mechanism that said only the ships we prefer can go 98 00:05:18,400 --> 00:05:19,560 through. In other words, Saudi ships 99 00:05:19,560 --> 00:05:22,000 weren't going to go through. Probably a lot of UAE ships 100 00:05:22,000 --> 00:05:23,920 weren't going to go through unless they were going to China, 101 00:05:24,440 --> 00:05:28,120 a lot of Qatar, Kuwaiti, Bahraini, in other words, the 102 00:05:28,120 --> 00:05:32,360 Iranian, the Arab states that Iran held accountable for the 103 00:05:32,360 --> 00:05:34,720 war. So it wasn't like the world was 104 00:05:34,720 --> 00:05:38,560 getting 90% of the oil coming out of there before we did this. 105 00:05:38,720 --> 00:05:41,160 What we're doing is shutting off that final 10%. 106 00:05:41,400 --> 00:05:44,920 Yes. And Donald Trump has said, Mark, 107 00:05:44,920 --> 00:05:47,600 has he not that he indicated that he'd obviously like other 108 00:05:47,600 --> 00:05:51,880 countries, not least NATO to kind of come along and help as 109 00:05:51,880 --> 00:05:57,400 it were, that didn't prove very effective in the early stages of 110 00:05:57,400 --> 00:06:01,440 the of the shooting war with Iran by air, Did it? 111 00:06:01,840 --> 00:06:05,880 Any sign that that's going to play any better in this aspect 112 00:06:05,880 --> 00:06:07,400 of the war? No. 113 00:06:07,440 --> 00:06:09,280 And Donald Trump's only an important lesson here. 114 00:06:09,280 --> 00:06:12,840 If you mistreat your allies and partners for 14 months and then 115 00:06:12,840 --> 00:06:14,520 give him a call saying, hey, could you come down to the 116 00:06:14,520 --> 00:06:17,200 street fight I'm in, they're probably not going to join you. 117 00:06:17,520 --> 00:06:21,360 And I don't blame the Europeans in the in NATO for being 118 00:06:21,360 --> 00:06:23,800 particularly disappointed in Trump over Greenland. 119 00:06:23,800 --> 00:06:26,480 I mean, there's a litany of issues over Greenland and other 120 00:06:26,480 --> 00:06:29,040 things. So, and, and it's one thing to 121 00:06:29,040 --> 00:06:30,960 not notify him. I wouldn't have trusted, I 122 00:06:31,040 --> 00:06:34,200 wouldn't have told the 32 countries of NATO I was about to 123 00:06:34,200 --> 00:06:37,520 do hit, you know, hit on Iran. I mean, what are the chances 124 00:06:37,520 --> 00:06:40,000 Hungary wouldn't have spilled the beans on that under Orban, 125 00:06:40,320 --> 00:06:42,240 right? I, I, I get why he didn't tell 126 00:06:42,240 --> 00:06:45,200 NATO, but he should have immediately consulted with them 127 00:06:45,200 --> 00:06:48,120 afterwards, told everyone he was doing and asked for assistance. 128 00:06:48,120 --> 00:06:51,440 Like, like minesweepers. I'll be honest, there's not a 129 00:06:51,440 --> 00:06:54,600 lot of there there in the European Navy's for like air 130 00:06:54,600 --> 00:06:57,600 defense ships, escort, you know, the kind of ships that would 131 00:06:57,600 --> 00:07:01,280 enforce this kind of blockade because 30 years of not spending 132 00:07:01,280 --> 00:07:04,000 on defense, your navy's the big loser. 133 00:07:04,000 --> 00:07:07,000 And the Royal Navy is a dumpster fire now. 134 00:07:07,520 --> 00:07:09,440 The French Navy's not in much better shape. 135 00:07:09,720 --> 00:07:12,120 The German Navy's a bunch of new ships that aren't really 136 00:07:12,120 --> 00:07:14,280 weaponized yet. The Italian Navy's in no good 137 00:07:14,280 --> 00:07:15,360 shape. I'm sorry. 138 00:07:15,360 --> 00:07:19,120 Those navies are no longer pertinent players in a game 139 00:07:19,120 --> 00:07:21,720 10,000 miles away in the Straits of Hormuz. 140 00:07:21,720 --> 00:07:24,920 So we didn't miss that, but we did miss the minesweepers. 141 00:07:24,920 --> 00:07:27,800 And the president should be criticized for his failure to 142 00:07:27,840 --> 00:07:30,760 talk with the Europeans and the immediate aftermath of the start 143 00:07:30,760 --> 00:07:33,280 of the strikes. And Cindy, that's quite a charge 144 00:07:33,280 --> 00:07:36,440 sheet Mark just laid out there. The European Navy's a dumpster 145 00:07:36,440 --> 00:07:39,520 fire in his view through neglect down the years economically 146 00:07:39,520 --> 00:07:43,000 10,000 miles away from where they should be. 147 00:07:43,280 --> 00:07:46,280 But in any case, why go and help Donald Trump when he sat around 148 00:07:46,280 --> 00:07:48,360 insulting you anyway for months on months? 149 00:07:48,520 --> 00:07:50,760 Yeah, well, quite. And I'm starting to think that 150 00:07:50,760 --> 00:07:54,560 actually the breakdown in the the US and the European 151 00:07:54,800 --> 00:07:57,280 relationship will take much more than Trump leaving the White 152 00:07:57,280 --> 00:07:59,840 House to fix at this rate, because it's starting to feel 153 00:07:59,840 --> 00:08:02,040 structural now, actually, so many European countries, 154 00:08:02,120 --> 00:08:04,760 countries are thinking about alternatives, even if they don't 155 00:08:04,760 --> 00:08:08,000 have much capacity or, or money to make those alternatives 156 00:08:08,000 --> 00:08:10,120 happen. That even the thought of getting 157 00:08:10,120 --> 00:08:13,840 strategic autonomy from America is, I think, damaging for for 158 00:08:13,840 --> 00:08:18,360 the US in, in, in the kind of empire of consent, if you would 159 00:08:18,360 --> 00:08:21,200 like to put it that way, that it had built with its allies across 160 00:08:21,200 --> 00:08:22,840 the world. You've got the Spanish Prime 161 00:08:22,840 --> 00:08:25,920 Minister this week in China talking about how much China 162 00:08:25,920 --> 00:08:28,200 needs to take a greater role in the world because America can't 163 00:08:28,200 --> 00:08:29,520 be trusted. You know, that's the kind of 164 00:08:29,520 --> 00:08:32,000 stuff it's going to take much longer than Trump leaving the 165 00:08:32,000 --> 00:08:35,400 White House to fix. And I'll defer to Mark on the 166 00:08:35,679 --> 00:08:38,159 abilities of these navies. But of course, you know, the 167 00:08:38,159 --> 00:08:40,360 other thing to consider is actually that the Strait of 168 00:08:40,360 --> 00:08:43,360 Hormuz gives Iran an asymmetrical and oversized 169 00:08:43,880 --> 00:08:47,600 ability to disrupt the world as everybody knew, You know, war 170 00:08:47,600 --> 00:08:50,480 games, war gaming, this kind of situation for years have always 171 00:08:50,480 --> 00:08:53,400 said that Iran could just close off the Strait of Hormuz. 172 00:08:53,560 --> 00:08:56,200 Legal or not, That is something that they could just report, do 173 00:08:56,200 --> 00:08:59,200 do very easily and disproportionately that disrupt 174 00:08:59,200 --> 00:09:02,080 the rest of the world. And so, yes, of course, the 175 00:09:02,080 --> 00:09:04,600 European navies should perhaps be better funded. 176 00:09:04,880 --> 00:09:08,160 But at the same time, this is basically the first car that 177 00:09:08,160 --> 00:09:12,200 Iran would have gone to at a strike situation, and it was not 178 00:09:12,200 --> 00:09:14,000 one that it seems like the US prepared for. 179 00:09:14,680 --> 00:09:18,080 Let's something just drill down into this in detail a little bit 180 00:09:18,080 --> 00:09:20,800 for the next few minutes. And and Cindy, perhaps if you 181 00:09:20,800 --> 00:09:23,960 could give us your a political answer to this question and then 182 00:09:23,960 --> 00:09:26,360 Mark, I'll come to you for a military strategic one. 183 00:09:27,160 --> 00:09:30,880 We understand as I said at the opening at the several vessels, 184 00:09:30,880 --> 00:09:34,240 at least one apparently Chinese flag, several Iranian vessels 185 00:09:34,440 --> 00:09:37,680 have already gone through the straits since this thing was 186 00:09:37,680 --> 00:09:40,320 supposedly put in place. Well, politically, what do you 187 00:09:40,320 --> 00:09:44,440 make of that, Cindy? Well, so as I as I, I think the 188 00:09:44,440 --> 00:09:47,520 situation is developing such that any ships leaving uranium 189 00:09:47,520 --> 00:09:49,480 ports haven't quite left the region. 190 00:09:50,400 --> 00:09:53,320 So we don't know what is going on with ships like the Valpus, 191 00:09:53,320 --> 00:09:56,120 which left an uranium port seemingly heading for China, 192 00:09:56,280 --> 00:09:58,640 which hasn't basically moved since this morning. 193 00:09:58,640 --> 00:10:02,240 That is Tuesday morning UK time. So we don't know if the US Navy 194 00:10:02,240 --> 00:10:05,480 is is the result is the reason for that ship stopping. 195 00:10:05,760 --> 00:10:09,160 Another ship, Rich Starry, which is the Chinese ownership left 196 00:10:09,160 --> 00:10:12,800 the UAE port actually and traversed the Strait of Hormuz 197 00:10:12,800 --> 00:10:14,760 and seems to be on its way to China. 198 00:10:14,760 --> 00:10:19,840 So that does seem to have a lied outside of of the American 199 00:10:19,840 --> 00:10:21,320 blockade. I mean, part of this is the 200 00:10:21,320 --> 00:10:24,000 confusion of what the blockade really means because Trump has 201 00:10:24,000 --> 00:10:27,800 said it's it's any any ship that goes via the Strait of Hormuz. 202 00:10:28,000 --> 00:10:31,120 But then CENTCOM says that it's any ship that leaves the Iranian 203 00:10:31,120 --> 00:10:33,480 ports. And, you know, I assume that the 204 00:10:33,480 --> 00:10:35,800 latter is right, considering what we've seen today already. 205 00:10:36,000 --> 00:10:39,160 But nobody really knows. And what a what a ridiculous way 206 00:10:39,160 --> 00:10:43,840 to run the world, basically. Well, yes, it's certainly it 207 00:10:43,840 --> 00:10:46,800 would seem that way. The Chinese certainly think so, 208 00:10:46,800 --> 00:10:48,920 Cindy. They've already condemned this 209 00:10:48,920 --> 00:10:52,520 in what for Beijing is unusually strong language, haven't they? 210 00:10:53,520 --> 00:10:56,560 Yeah, and they've said that they strongly condemn any disruptions 211 00:10:56,560 --> 00:10:59,960 to the world economy, any unilateral moves on to this. 212 00:10:59,960 --> 00:11:02,720 And they've said a lot, you know, throughout all of this. 213 00:11:02,720 --> 00:11:05,360 They condemn the Ayatollah's assassination as well. 214 00:11:05,360 --> 00:11:09,880 They condemned building up of military presence in the region 215 00:11:09,880 --> 00:11:12,800 by America before then as well. The Chinese haven't done 216 00:11:12,800 --> 00:11:15,680 anything too material so far. What is interesting and 217 00:11:15,680 --> 00:11:18,400 something to watch is the US intelligence reportedly showing 218 00:11:18,560 --> 00:11:22,560 that China may be offering Iran these kind of shoulder 219 00:11:22,560 --> 00:11:26,200 maneuvered anti air missile systems that would have an 220 00:11:26,200 --> 00:11:30,560 impact on, for example, low air American action over Iran if 221 00:11:30,560 --> 00:11:32,640 it's when, if and when the ceasefire breaks. 222 00:11:32,640 --> 00:11:35,320 So if that has happened, you know, as I say, we are already 223 00:11:35,320 --> 00:11:38,080 in certain territory. I think it would be very stupid 224 00:11:38,080 --> 00:11:39,760 of China to get more involved in this. 225 00:11:40,040 --> 00:11:42,680 But if Trump continues to force the issue and actually China 226 00:11:42,680 --> 00:11:45,920 can't get its oil from from the Strait, I think it will have to 227 00:11:45,920 --> 00:11:47,880 start thinking about a different way of doing things. 228 00:11:48,680 --> 00:11:52,640 Right Mark, a note of of a semi despair almost exasperation from 229 00:11:52,640 --> 00:11:55,840 Cindy just there. This is no way to run a world 230 00:11:55,840 --> 00:11:57,640 quote UN quote. Is this any way to run a 231 00:11:57,640 --> 00:12:00,600 military blockade in your view? A naval blockade. 232 00:12:01,600 --> 00:12:04,440 I mean, if, if, if Sidney's exasperated, try being Admiral 233 00:12:04,440 --> 00:12:07,520 Brad Cooper, the CENTCOM commander with this commander in 234 00:12:07,520 --> 00:12:11,920 chief. So first I do need to say the 235 00:12:11,920 --> 00:12:15,560 Royal Navy is, is, you know, has tons of good people in it. 236 00:12:15,560 --> 00:12:17,640 I just think that they haven't paid their money and and 237 00:12:17,640 --> 00:12:20,280 watching the defense minister recently not know the number of 238 00:12:20,280 --> 00:12:23,760 ships is kind of a mildly when the numbers as low as it is, 239 00:12:23,760 --> 00:12:25,040 it's kind of an embarrassing thing. 240 00:12:25,400 --> 00:12:27,040 The Spanish need to be really careful. 241 00:12:27,160 --> 00:12:29,680 I mean, they, of all the European countries, they're 242 00:12:29,680 --> 00:12:31,560 treading into the most danger with Trump. 243 00:12:31,800 --> 00:12:35,960 And most of us who think Trump is a little nuts on Europe, I 244 00:12:35,960 --> 00:12:38,040 actually kind of think he's got Spain about right. 245 00:12:38,320 --> 00:12:40,080 So they they should be very careful. 246 00:12:40,080 --> 00:12:43,320 They are setting themselves up for a very long term frigid 247 00:12:43,320 --> 00:12:45,920 relationship with the United States, which won't do them any 248 00:12:45,920 --> 00:12:48,040 favours. But let me, but let me flip that 249 00:12:48,080 --> 00:12:49,640 mark. Let me flip that the other way. 250 00:12:49,640 --> 00:12:52,040 An awful lot of people, an awful lot of people in Europe think 251 00:12:52,040 --> 00:12:54,840 the Spanish are the people who've got it exactly right with 252 00:12:54,840 --> 00:12:58,040 Trump and they're standing up and calling a truth the truth 253 00:12:58,040 --> 00:13:00,600 about him. So the Spanish were stuck at 254 00:13:00,600 --> 00:13:04,360 1.3% on defense spending for 20 years and they were trying to 255 00:13:04,360 --> 00:13:07,280 justify their low numbers by saying we're not gonna respond 256 00:13:07,480 --> 00:13:10,520 to this blackmail from Trump. I mean, let's be clear, they 257 00:13:10,520 --> 00:13:11,360 didn't. Exactly. 258 00:13:12,120 --> 00:13:14,480 They are not a contributor. They've never been a 259 00:13:14,480 --> 00:13:16,360 contributor. They don't see a threat from 260 00:13:16,360 --> 00:13:18,760 Russia. They think China can help in the 261 00:13:19,160 --> 00:13:23,000 since 1949, China's never helped out in anything internationally 262 00:13:23,200 --> 00:13:26,040 except supporting North Korea in an invasion of South Korea. 263 00:13:26,040 --> 00:13:28,720 So I think I'm going to be a little careful here in how the 264 00:13:28,720 --> 00:13:31,040 Spanish handled themselves international relations. 265 00:13:31,040 --> 00:13:32,800 They will be of all the countries. 266 00:13:32,800 --> 00:13:35,120 I can IA lot of this can be forgiven. 267 00:13:35,520 --> 00:13:37,320 The Spanish have really gone pretty far. 268 00:13:37,760 --> 00:13:39,840 And look, Trump needs to be held accountable as well. 269 00:13:40,760 --> 00:13:43,400 You know, he is, he is definitely more than 50% of the 270 00:13:43,400 --> 00:13:48,600 problem back to Brad Cooper, his problem here is that he has, he 271 00:13:48,600 --> 00:13:50,640 has inconsistent guidance for the president. 272 00:13:51,000 --> 00:13:56,640 I, I can't tell yet whether if a ship leaves a non is Iranian 273 00:13:56,640 --> 00:14:01,520 port but pays a toll, I think they then are blockaded. 274 00:14:01,840 --> 00:14:04,400 So that might be the condition with the second Chinese ship 275 00:14:04,400 --> 00:14:07,920 losing the UAE. But you know, if we don't really 276 00:14:07,920 --> 00:14:10,400 know the rules, I'm not sure how you can hold the ship captives 277 00:14:10,400 --> 00:14:12,080 responsible for not knowing the rules. 278 00:14:12,600 --> 00:14:15,400 I will say these Chinese. Well, exactly, exactly what 279 00:14:15,400 --> 00:14:18,360 you're you're a Rear Admiral. You're a Rear Admiral. 280 00:14:18,360 --> 00:14:22,280 Look at this with your years of expertise and you're forced to 281 00:14:22,280 --> 00:14:27,120 use dangerous verbs like I think you know, not I know that's 282 00:14:27,120 --> 00:14:29,720 that's terrifying. I agree. 283 00:14:29,880 --> 00:14:32,480 How's that for another verb? But the but you know, I'll I'll 284 00:14:32,480 --> 00:14:35,240 tell you, I think there's a problem here. 285 00:14:35,960 --> 00:14:37,440 You know, I think the president's making this hard. 286 00:14:37,440 --> 00:14:40,880 Having said that, no one needs to The one thing if our Brad 287 00:14:40,880 --> 00:14:45,040 Coopers, I wouldn't do anything urgently to get from Iran to 288 00:14:45,120 --> 00:14:47,680 China's, you know, 14 to 21 days. 289 00:14:48,040 --> 00:14:51,000 You have lots of time to figure out what you are and are not 290 00:14:51,000 --> 00:14:54,760 going to do with that ship. My suspicion is the Chinese 291 00:14:54,760 --> 00:14:58,480 ships are going to get a pass from Trump because of, as Cindy 292 00:14:58,480 --> 00:15:02,320 referred to the the meeting May 14th and 15th between the summit 293 00:15:02,520 --> 00:15:05,600 between XI and and Trump. And that's going to put the lie 294 00:15:05,600 --> 00:15:08,800 to this blockade. I will say though, the non 295 00:15:08,800 --> 00:15:12,440 Chinese bound stuff, which is principally India, I think 296 00:15:12,920 --> 00:15:16,120 that's where a lot of the rest of this sanctioned oil, this 297 00:15:16,520 --> 00:15:20,280 shadow fleet oil is going that I think we're going to seize and 298 00:15:20,440 --> 00:15:22,480 India is going to have a problem very quickly. 299 00:15:23,040 --> 00:15:25,280 Right. So, Cindy, let's bring this up 300 00:15:25,280 --> 00:15:27,400 to the dear old subject of money. 301 00:15:27,600 --> 00:15:31,720 It's kind of what it's all about as well as the military aspect. 302 00:15:31,880 --> 00:15:35,280 The longer this goes on, I mean, Mark making a very clear case 303 00:15:35,280 --> 00:15:38,880 that he thinks the Chinese could get a free pass outlook for 304 00:15:38,880 --> 00:15:41,840 India, not nearly so good. Two huge economies. 305 00:15:42,160 --> 00:15:45,280 The longer this goes on, with all the complexities that we've 306 00:15:45,280 --> 00:15:48,600 been laying out here this afternoon, what does it do for 307 00:15:48,600 --> 00:15:50,560 the global economy? Yeah. 308 00:15:50,560 --> 00:15:53,160 And Alex, it's more than just about money, because money, of 309 00:15:53,160 --> 00:15:58,040 course, is just a shorthand or rather a correlation of what 310 00:15:58,040 --> 00:16:00,120 we're otherwise talking about, which is material living 311 00:16:00,120 --> 00:16:01,400 standards. You know, we're talking about 312 00:16:01,400 --> 00:16:04,440 jobs, we're talking about people's health, we're talking 313 00:16:04,440 --> 00:16:08,160 about, you know, how entire countries fare for the rest of 314 00:16:08,160 --> 00:16:10,320 the year and actually for the next few years, depending on how 315 00:16:10,320 --> 00:16:12,600 this conflict, how long this conflict drags on. 316 00:16:12,600 --> 00:16:16,200 So we've already seen in Europe, for example, a 60% rise in gas 317 00:16:16,200 --> 00:16:18,880 prices. But actually it's it's Asia that 318 00:16:18,880 --> 00:16:22,720 is most impacted by Strait of Hormuz energy blockade because 319 00:16:22,920 --> 00:16:25,840 countries like Japan, for example, get over 90% of its 320 00:16:25,840 --> 00:16:28,200 imported oil via the Strait of Hormuz. 321 00:16:29,240 --> 00:16:32,280 The Arab nations, of course, being in the middle in the of 322 00:16:32,280 --> 00:16:34,200 the storm. The UN estimates that they might 323 00:16:34,440 --> 00:16:38,480 lose $200 billion in revenues as a result of this war. 324 00:16:38,480 --> 00:16:42,360 So nowhere in the world is safe from the economic disruption 325 00:16:42,360 --> 00:16:44,960 that will come from this. That will first of all hit by 326 00:16:44,960 --> 00:16:47,680 energy prices and already hitting by energy prices, but 327 00:16:47,680 --> 00:16:50,040 then will impact everything that energy goes into. 328 00:16:50,040 --> 00:16:52,800 Things like fertilizers, which will impact the food industry, 329 00:16:53,160 --> 00:16:56,160 things like transportation, things like manufacturing. 330 00:16:56,400 --> 00:16:58,720 You know, some countries are already starting to ration their 331 00:16:58,720 --> 00:17:01,120 power. Some countries are already 332 00:17:01,240 --> 00:17:03,360 starting to tell the people to start working from home. 333 00:17:03,720 --> 00:17:06,280 You know, we because we don't know how long this is going to 334 00:17:06,280 --> 00:17:08,760 last for because we don't know what President Trump really 335 00:17:08,760 --> 00:17:11,960 wants out of it. It is very, very hard to see 336 00:17:11,960 --> 00:17:16,079 what the bottom is here, Alex. And I try to be very, very kind 337 00:17:16,079 --> 00:17:20,000 of impartial here, but it is it is an exasperating situation. 338 00:17:20,480 --> 00:17:23,079 And I think, you know, Donald Trump, for all his faults, has 339 00:17:23,079 --> 00:17:26,520 been good on foreign policy for a long time. 340 00:17:26,520 --> 00:17:28,960 And actually people have underrated him for that. 341 00:17:29,400 --> 00:17:34,520 But this kind of latest war is just so uncharacteristic of the 342 00:17:34,520 --> 00:17:37,800 kind of isolationism and the American first attitude that has 343 00:17:37,800 --> 00:17:41,040 actually been quite good for America or just sorry, quite 344 00:17:41,040 --> 00:17:44,680 good for America Solo, not for the Americans global alliances 345 00:17:44,680 --> 00:17:47,720 right so far. But but it does it does just 346 00:17:47,720 --> 00:17:51,440 seem bizarre that he get himself into this war and now he has no 347 00:17:51,440 --> 00:17:53,640 way out and the rest of the world is paying a bill. 348 00:17:53,640 --> 00:17:56,280 And just a brief point on Mark's point about Spain. 349 00:17:56,560 --> 00:17:59,160 Yes, I can see why the Americans are annoyed with Spain, but just 350 00:17:59,160 --> 00:18:01,440 look at it from the perspective of Europe or any of these other 351 00:18:01,440 --> 00:18:06,080 areas and countries that I've mentioned. 90% of the FOD lies 352 00:18:06,080 --> 00:18:09,760 with America and then everyone else has been taken along for a 353 00:18:09,760 --> 00:18:12,560 ride here. You've got, you know, leaders of 354 00:18:12,560 --> 00:18:16,840 countries from South Korea can comparing Israel to the actions 355 00:18:16,840 --> 00:18:19,440 of Japan during World War 2. You've got countries like Spain, 356 00:18:19,440 --> 00:18:21,960 but also you've got Italy. You know, Georgie Maloney is 357 00:18:21,960 --> 00:18:25,280 hardly a left wing actor in Europe and she has been 358 00:18:25,280 --> 00:18:31,480 criticizing Trump as well. So it's, it's there is, yeah. 359 00:18:31,560 --> 00:18:33,160 I mean, it's hard to know how to conclude this point, but 360 00:18:33,160 --> 00:18:35,640 basically the economic shock is very, very great. 361 00:18:35,880 --> 00:18:37,240 We can have the Pope to that list. 362 00:18:37,240 --> 00:18:38,960 We probably have the Pope to that list. 363 00:18:40,360 --> 00:18:44,200 Yes, the Pope. That's a after, after Cindy's 364 00:18:44,200 --> 00:18:47,280 global overview there. Let's bring it back to the 365 00:18:47,280 --> 00:18:50,000 United States, shall we? Domestically longer though, all 366 00:18:50,000 --> 00:18:53,480 this goes on in and around Hormuz, the more the price of, 367 00:18:54,040 --> 00:18:56,400 of gas, petrol goes up in the US. 368 00:18:56,400 --> 00:18:58,680 That's not good for the poll ratings of the president. 369 00:18:59,080 --> 00:19:02,680 Small matter of the midterms trundling along towards us in 370 00:19:02,680 --> 00:19:04,800 November. And he knows that, doesn't he? 371 00:19:05,040 --> 00:19:07,160 Yeah, he does. We're going to have less impact 372 00:19:07,200 --> 00:19:10,840 than the European and Asian States and Arab states that 373 00:19:10,840 --> 00:19:13,200 Sydney went through. And I agree with her assessment. 374 00:19:13,280 --> 00:19:16,800 And I put fertilizer as a, as a really top issue in, in food 375 00:19:16,800 --> 00:19:20,320 production in, in a lot of places at at the top of the 376 00:19:20,320 --> 00:19:24,320 list. But while we will have less gas 377 00:19:24,320 --> 00:19:28,400 price challenges, they'll be some the the society resilience. 378 00:19:28,400 --> 00:19:31,280 the United States is really low. We're not a good country for, 379 00:19:31,320 --> 00:19:35,600 you know, for problems. And and with a midterm election 380 00:19:35,600 --> 00:19:37,720 coming up, the president's going to be in a lot of trouble, in my 381 00:19:37,720 --> 00:19:40,640 opinion. So, yeah, he has a lot of this 382 00:19:40,640 --> 00:19:43,320 has to work quickly. This idea of cutting off the, 383 00:19:43,520 --> 00:19:48,320 you know, 13 billion, you know, a month from the from the 384 00:19:49,280 --> 00:19:50,640 Iranians. It's going to have an immediate 385 00:19:50,640 --> 00:19:52,760 impact. If it doesn't, he's going to 386 00:19:52,760 --> 00:19:56,200 have to pick some other tools to get them back to the negotiating 387 00:19:56,200 --> 00:19:58,200 table. And I would caveat one thing. 388 00:19:58,960 --> 00:20:01,640 I don't like much of his foreign policy and I'd throw his Russia 389 00:20:01,640 --> 00:20:05,320 Ukraine policy on, you know, on the fire of not not executed 390 00:20:05,320 --> 00:20:09,000 well, even from a make America great again stance. 391 00:20:09,000 --> 00:20:13,320 So, you know, I think this is a long series of failures in my 392 00:20:13,320 --> 00:20:17,720 mind by by Trump and and I'm very disappointed with him. 393 00:20:18,200 --> 00:20:20,560 I'm just when I comment on the blockade. 394 00:20:21,000 --> 00:20:24,160 I do think it's legal. I do think it's executable and I 395 00:20:24,160 --> 00:20:28,160 do prefer it, you know, to trying to wedge open the 396 00:20:28,160 --> 00:20:31,160 straight for convoy operations. I think that would lead to 397 00:20:31,160 --> 00:20:35,320 casualties of US sailor casualties unnecessarily. 398 00:20:35,560 --> 00:20:38,400 So right now, trying this blockade strikes me as the right 399 00:20:38,400 --> 00:20:41,760 thing to do initially. Mark, why is the US blockade 400 00:20:41,760 --> 00:20:46,320 legal but not legal? Because the US is responding, 401 00:20:46,320 --> 00:20:49,960 What's happened is what the US is doing is seizing ships that 402 00:20:49,960 --> 00:20:52,200 are participating in an illegal operation. 403 00:20:52,200 --> 00:20:57,680 The illegal operation is they are being exempted from toll or 404 00:20:57,680 --> 00:21:01,240 in the case when they're paying tolls, paying tolls while Iran 405 00:21:01,240 --> 00:21:05,080 blocks the, you know, the transit passage through an 406 00:21:05,080 --> 00:21:07,960 international waterway. You, you can't, you know, our 407 00:21:07,960 --> 00:21:10,880 response to this can't be, well, you got away with it. 408 00:21:11,480 --> 00:21:13,440 You know, it's got to be no, we're going to hold you 409 00:21:13,440 --> 00:21:15,120 accountable. And that's what, that's what you 410 00:21:15,120 --> 00:21:16,840 do. I, I'm, I don't think what he's 411 00:21:16,840 --> 00:21:20,760 doing here, you know, not that he cares, but I, I don't think 412 00:21:20,760 --> 00:21:23,120 what he's doing here is, you know, is illegal. 413 00:21:23,120 --> 00:21:26,960 I think what he's doing here is a response to an Iranian action 414 00:21:27,320 --> 00:21:29,560 to block. And it is Iran that blocked the 415 00:21:29,640 --> 00:21:31,760 Straits of Hormuz. Isn't the Iranian blockade a 416 00:21:31,760 --> 00:21:34,480 response to the war that he started, which is arguably 417 00:21:34,480 --> 00:21:35,840 illegal as well? Yeah, well. 418 00:21:36,160 --> 00:21:38,320 That's a separate argument about the war being illegal or 419 00:21:38,320 --> 00:21:40,360 illegal. How you know his assessment of 420 00:21:40,360 --> 00:21:42,400 whether there was a threat to United United States is what you 421 00:21:42,400 --> 00:21:45,480 have to go through that. But no, blocking an 422 00:21:45,520 --> 00:21:48,120 international Strait is not an allowable response. 423 00:21:48,440 --> 00:21:52,200 What this is all about is also resilience. 424 00:21:52,640 --> 00:21:56,680 Now, many would feel, and it's more a feeling than an 425 00:21:56,680 --> 00:22:01,040 intellectual argument, the Iranians culturally, socially, 426 00:22:01,040 --> 00:22:05,920 politically have resilience to the ends of the Earth compared 427 00:22:05,920 --> 00:22:09,760 to the United States. the United States has an airman or two 428 00:22:09,760 --> 00:22:12,640 missing and there's a state of almost national panic. 429 00:22:12,920 --> 00:22:15,280 You compare that to what's actually being inflicted and 430 00:22:15,280 --> 00:22:17,600 what the Iranian nation is going through. 431 00:22:18,080 --> 00:22:21,600 And that's a factor here. As we've mentioned time and 432 00:22:21,600 --> 00:22:24,800 mentioned, you said this has got to happen quickly, Mark, that 433 00:22:24,800 --> 00:22:27,360 resilience, Sydney, is a big factor, isn't it? 434 00:22:27,400 --> 00:22:28,880 Yeah. And I, I wouldn't want to 435 00:22:28,920 --> 00:22:32,040 pretend to be an Iran expert here, Alex, but I think the, the 436 00:22:32,040 --> 00:22:36,040 operative part seems to me is maybe the fact that when you are 437 00:22:36,040 --> 00:22:38,960 the one under attack, that resilience comes much more 438 00:22:38,960 --> 00:22:41,960 easily because it seems much more obvious that is an 439 00:22:41,960 --> 00:22:44,800 existential risk to you. And this is the, this is what's 440 00:22:44,800 --> 00:22:46,560 happening in Iran. And this is what happens at a 441 00:22:46,560 --> 00:22:49,640 lot of the countries that not just America, but other nations 442 00:22:49,640 --> 00:22:52,200 target over time. You know, I, I'm ethnically 443 00:22:52,200 --> 00:22:54,760 Chinese. China, as you know, plays a lot 444 00:22:54,760 --> 00:22:57,760 on this kind of memory of, of existential risk. 445 00:22:58,000 --> 00:23:00,760 And it's not because the country is strong or because the people 446 00:23:00,760 --> 00:23:03,000 are more smart or anything. I don't really think it's any of 447 00:23:03,000 --> 00:23:04,560 that. I think it's just because when 448 00:23:04,560 --> 00:23:07,680 you are the one forced to rally around your flag and when it is 449 00:23:07,680 --> 00:23:10,320 an existential risk for your own country or your or your regime, 450 00:23:10,440 --> 00:23:13,080 whatever you want to identify with, then it becomes much 451 00:23:13,080 --> 00:23:15,800 easier to feel that that battle to the death. 452 00:23:15,800 --> 00:23:18,680 I mean, I don't think America, Americans can feel that kind of 453 00:23:18,680 --> 00:23:22,920 same sense of desperation. Just remember they murdered 454 00:23:22,960 --> 00:23:25,880 32,000 protesters in about 40 hours. 455 00:23:26,440 --> 00:23:31,640 I mean, this is not a popular regime, but you know, if the, 456 00:23:31,640 --> 00:23:34,040 you know, when we started bombing like this, we don't 457 00:23:34,040 --> 00:23:37,640 give, we didn't give do any of the preparation so that the 458 00:23:37,640 --> 00:23:41,080 activists or so that, so that the people who are opposed to 459 00:23:41,080 --> 00:23:43,400 the regime were armed and ready to go. 460 00:23:43,400 --> 00:23:45,240 We did none of the proper preparation. 461 00:23:45,520 --> 00:23:49,680 But the regime is resilient. And when you can kill 32,000 of 462 00:23:49,680 --> 00:23:52,600 your people and get away with it, you're a pretty resilient 463 00:23:52,600 --> 00:23:55,080 regime. So that's, that's an ugly 464 00:23:55,080 --> 00:23:57,000 resilience. That's part of your, that's part 465 00:23:57,000 --> 00:23:58,600 of this description. And I think people are 466 00:23:58,600 --> 00:24:00,800 forgetting that a lot. I the United, you know, they're 467 00:24:00,800 --> 00:24:02,120 blaming the United States for all this. 468 00:24:02,120 --> 00:24:05,360 I mean, what was, what's Europe's response to the 32,000 469 00:24:05,360 --> 00:24:09,360 people condolence cards, you know, a criticism of a country 470 00:24:09,360 --> 00:24:12,320 trying to remove the regime. I'm sorry. 471 00:24:12,320 --> 00:24:16,760 This is, you know, there's a lot of amnesia in Europe over the 472 00:24:16,760 --> 00:24:20,560 Iranian regime and what they say about Israel, what they say 473 00:24:20,560 --> 00:24:22,280 where they're going to get a bomb and what they do to their 474 00:24:22,280 --> 00:24:25,360 people who protest. This is an evil group of, of 475 00:24:25,360 --> 00:24:29,720 guys who have who have ruled this country mercilessly for 47 476 00:24:29,720 --> 00:24:32,800 years. I'm not 100% sure I'd have any 477 00:24:32,800 --> 00:24:35,640 empathy for them in in this case. 478 00:24:36,240 --> 00:24:39,440 Now just going forward on the economic part of China, China's 479 00:24:39,440 --> 00:24:42,800 in our in our minds, of course, because of the Chinese vessel 480 00:24:42,800 --> 00:24:45,840 which has seemed to have gone through the straits thus far. 481 00:24:45,840 --> 00:24:48,000 OK. Longer term, how does this play 482 00:24:48,000 --> 00:24:52,440 for the Chinese economy, Cindy? I think it depends on how long 483 00:24:52,440 --> 00:24:57,200 it goes on for. For now, you know, China is not 484 00:24:57,360 --> 00:25:00,960 over at the front of the line as as one of the biggest victims of 485 00:25:00,960 --> 00:25:05,280 this action, even though as as a figure often trotted out China 486 00:25:05,280 --> 00:25:09,440 as a massive customer of Iranian oil. 80% of shipped Iranian oil 487 00:25:09,440 --> 00:25:12,240 goes to China. You flip that stat on the other 488 00:25:12,240 --> 00:25:13,960 on its head, the other way around. 489 00:25:14,160 --> 00:25:17,160 And actually Iranian oil accounts for about 10% of 490 00:25:17,160 --> 00:25:22,080 China's energy oil imports and about only 7% of China's total 491 00:25:22,080 --> 00:25:24,880 energy consumption because actually China's so energy 492 00:25:25,000 --> 00:25:26,600 independent. So going back to your point 493 00:25:26,600 --> 00:25:29,880 about resilience, Alex, you know, 85% of China's energy that 494 00:25:29,880 --> 00:25:32,160 it uses comes domestically basically. 495 00:25:32,160 --> 00:25:34,360 So it's been preparing for a long time for external 496 00:25:34,360 --> 00:25:36,320 disruptions precisely like this one. 497 00:25:36,320 --> 00:25:38,600 So I think, you know, countries like Japan, for example, are 498 00:25:38,600 --> 00:25:41,280 much more exposed. But that's a short term thing. 499 00:25:41,280 --> 00:25:43,920 You know, in the long run, if there is a global recession, a 500 00:25:44,360 --> 00:25:47,600 country like China whose economy is basically being kept afloat 501 00:25:47,600 --> 00:25:51,640 by exports, needs customers, and that is not going to be good for 502 00:25:51,640 --> 00:25:54,800 the Chinese economy either, which is probably only growing 503 00:25:54,800 --> 00:25:58,160 at about 3 to 5% at the moment. Some people say even less than 504 00:25:58,160 --> 00:26:00,080 that. So none of this is good for 505 00:26:00,080 --> 00:26:04,000 China in the economic sense. Diplomatically though, depending 506 00:26:04,000 --> 00:26:08,640 on how Trump plays the card, I think China has a lot of brownie 507 00:26:08,640 --> 00:26:10,920 points, as it were, that it can win from the rest of the world 508 00:26:11,080 --> 00:26:14,040 if it plays its own cards. Well, in the sense, because 509 00:26:14,040 --> 00:26:16,320 right now, who looks like the most disruptive, the most 510 00:26:16,320 --> 00:26:19,240 threatening actor to the rest of the world is not China, it's the 511 00:26:19,320 --> 00:26:22,160 US. Cindy, Mark, thanks very much 512 00:26:22,160 --> 00:26:24,240 for your valuable time. We've covered a huge amount of 513 00:26:24,240 --> 00:26:26,080 ground in the last half hour or so. 514 00:26:26,080 --> 00:26:28,200 Very grateful to you both. Thank you so much. 515 00:26:28,640 --> 00:26:28,960 Thank you.