1 00:00:00,040 --> 00:00:02,720 He spells it out, which is, you know, first data centers in 2 00:00:02,720 --> 00:00:06,480 space, then stuff on the moon, then Mars and the light of 3 00:00:06,480 --> 00:00:08,000 consciousness extended everywhere. 4 00:00:08,000 --> 00:00:11,920 And that's the vision. And if you just take a look at 5 00:00:11,920 --> 00:00:14,280 what's going on down here on Earth right now, it seems a bit 6 00:00:14,280 --> 00:00:19,240 more like someone is combining a lot of his very costly ventures 7 00:00:19,240 --> 00:00:22,720 together and hoping that some magical synergies will emerge. 8 00:00:22,800 --> 00:00:27,560 This is a race between the US and China. 9 00:00:27,600 --> 00:00:31,400 Yes, these companies are big, but they have one thing in mind, 10 00:00:31,400 --> 00:00:36,240 which is not just to beat each other, but also to beat, you 11 00:00:36,240 --> 00:00:38,440 know, the world's second biggest superpower. 12 00:00:38,600 --> 00:00:43,080 Should we have concerns that so much power potentially is in one 13 00:00:43,080 --> 00:00:45,080 man's hands and that man is Elon Musk? 14 00:00:49,160 --> 00:00:51,680 Hello and welcome to the forecast, Elon Musk. 15 00:00:51,680 --> 00:00:55,240 SpaceX has acquired his AI startup, merging his two most 16 00:00:55,240 --> 00:00:58,920 ambitious companies into a trillion dollar entity, the most 17 00:00:58,920 --> 00:01:01,760 valuable private company the world has ever seen. 18 00:01:02,000 --> 00:01:05,560 And he says this is only the beginning, describing the merger 19 00:01:05,560 --> 00:01:09,320 as the start of a new book in a mission to build space based 20 00:01:09,320 --> 00:01:13,320 data centres, harness the power of the sun and scale AI far 21 00:01:13,320 --> 00:01:15,640 beyond anything possible on our planet Earth. 22 00:01:15,920 --> 00:01:18,720 But behind the cosmic ambition lies a bigger question. 23 00:01:18,720 --> 00:01:22,200 Is this trillion dollar valuation grounded in reality or 24 00:01:22,200 --> 00:01:25,400 is it another example of Musk's ability to bend markets, 25 00:01:25,400 --> 00:01:28,920 investors and public attention, don't forget, to his unique 26 00:01:29,000 --> 00:01:30,960 vision. Well, to discuss it all, we're 27 00:01:30,960 --> 00:01:33,280 joined by our economics correspondent, the Channel 4 28 00:01:33,280 --> 00:01:36,640 News Heliot Ebrahimi and Jacob Silverman, who's author of 29 00:01:36,640 --> 00:01:40,360 Gilded Rage, Elon Musk and the Radicalization of Silicon 30 00:01:40,360 --> 00:01:42,720 Valley. Jacob, were you expecting this? 31 00:01:42,720 --> 00:01:45,280 Because there was sort of chatter about Musk doing 32 00:01:45,280 --> 00:01:47,000 something along these lines, wasn't there? 33 00:01:47,000 --> 00:01:49,560 And it's not like he hasn't merged his companies but before. 34 00:01:49,680 --> 00:01:52,000 Yeah. I think there was some reporting 35 00:01:52,000 --> 00:01:54,800 the last week that he had been looking for some kind of 36 00:01:55,080 --> 00:01:57,480 internal tie up between some of his companies. 37 00:01:57,480 --> 00:02:01,040 And as you said, I think this is something that Musk has done 38 00:02:01,040 --> 00:02:05,840 before, most recently last year when he combined X&X AI. 39 00:02:05,840 --> 00:02:10,960 So his social network and his AI company, both money losers of 40 00:02:10,960 --> 00:02:14,280 the AI company, of course, drains a lot more resources. 41 00:02:14,280 --> 00:02:17,280 So this does seem to be in line with his tendencies. 42 00:02:17,280 --> 00:02:20,560 It's just doing something on a far bigger scale perhaps than 43 00:02:20,560 --> 00:02:24,040 we've seen him do before, and really concentrating, as you 44 00:02:24,040 --> 00:02:27,960 said, his interests into one big entity. 45 00:02:28,360 --> 00:02:32,640 Yeah, you you've both made the point about the XAI aspect of 46 00:02:32,640 --> 00:02:35,960 this being sort of loss making it losing billion dollars a 47 00:02:35,960 --> 00:02:39,400 month. I think what Jacob said, it's 48 00:02:39,400 --> 00:02:42,080 quite interesting, you know, this is a pattern and by the 49 00:02:42,080 --> 00:02:46,120 way, it's not always successful. He also requested Tesla 50 00:02:46,120 --> 00:02:52,760 investors agree to invest in X AI and 57% of them said they 51 00:02:52,760 --> 00:02:55,400 didn't really fancy it. Although he's managed to 52 00:02:55,400 --> 00:03:01,440 persuade them, now he is forever trying to conglomerate, as you 53 00:03:01,440 --> 00:03:05,720 said, Kieran, get get his this power base together because he 54 00:03:05,720 --> 00:03:11,120 thinks that essentially if you merge these technologies, you 55 00:03:11,120 --> 00:03:16,280 are going to win the AI race. Now whether that is smokescreen, 56 00:03:16,280 --> 00:03:21,440 you know, whether that is kind of a call to legitimacy just by 57 00:03:21,440 --> 00:03:25,320 saying, look, we're, we're we're by being bigger, we're going to 58 00:03:25,360 --> 00:03:28,200 by owning the future. It gives him some kind of 59 00:03:30,040 --> 00:03:34,240 foundation, essentially to say that it's justified that you 60 00:03:34,240 --> 00:03:39,200 bring together a business that has NASA contracts, that has EV 61 00:03:39,360 --> 00:03:45,520 cars, that has a AI compute and bring it all together and launch 62 00:03:45,520 --> 00:03:48,960 it into Mars. Yeah, Jacob, I mean, he's 63 00:03:48,960 --> 00:03:54,480 competing in the AI sphere with Google, with Meta, with open AI. 64 00:03:54,480 --> 00:03:58,120 There's this rush to build data centres, isn't there? 65 00:03:58,120 --> 00:04:01,240 Is it? The only way that Elon Musk can 66 00:04:01,240 --> 00:04:05,360 compete in the AI sphere is to sort of loop it in with SpaceX, 67 00:04:05,360 --> 00:04:08,840 which actually is valuable, is attracting investment and is 68 00:04:08,840 --> 00:04:11,280 making money. Well, I think the capital 69 00:04:11,280 --> 00:04:14,200 expenditures, expenditures, excuse me, with AI have gotten 70 00:04:14,200 --> 00:04:18,680 so huge that the promises and sort of ideas surrounding him 71 00:04:18,680 --> 00:04:20,760 have also had to scale in proportion. 72 00:04:20,760 --> 00:04:23,480 I mean, we weren't really hearing about data centers in 73 00:04:23,480 --> 00:04:28,920 space before sometime last year. And now it seems to be the 74 00:04:28,920 --> 00:04:32,040 latest way forward. And I find it a little dubious, 75 00:04:32,040 --> 00:04:35,000 but this is seems to be must latest promises that somehow 76 00:04:35,280 --> 00:04:37,840 this can't be done down here on Earth, it can only be done in 77 00:04:37,840 --> 00:04:39,880 space. But by the way, he's not the 78 00:04:39,880 --> 00:04:42,840 only one, right? You've got Jeff Bezos up there. 79 00:04:42,840 --> 00:04:45,880 You've got NVIDIA investing. You've got the former boss of 80 00:04:45,960 --> 00:04:50,680 Google, Eric Schmidt. Everybody seems to be looking at 81 00:04:50,680 --> 00:04:53,960 space as a cheaper alternative. Why? 82 00:04:53,960 --> 00:04:57,960 Because apparently you've got 24/7 solar power you can use. 83 00:04:58,280 --> 00:05:04,600 You've got the ability to create data centres without water, 84 00:05:05,120 --> 00:05:08,720 perhaps without citizens, without politicians, you've got 85 00:05:08,720 --> 00:05:12,960 less regulations. And this race that we've got at 86 00:05:12,960 --> 00:05:17,040 the moment where various companies are spending hundreds 87 00:05:17,040 --> 00:05:21,640 of billions of pounds trying to build out AI data centres 88 00:05:21,640 --> 00:05:24,160 without really the infrastructure in place. 89 00:05:24,400 --> 00:05:26,840 That is the problem. The infrastructure, the energy 90 00:05:26,840 --> 00:05:29,920 needs, the water needs, they're not in place. 91 00:05:29,920 --> 00:05:33,760 And so these companies are looking for easier, cheaper 92 00:05:33,800 --> 00:05:36,600 answers. So is he there and Jacob sort of 93 00:05:36,600 --> 00:05:43,000 going for first mover advantage as the guy that puts data 94 00:05:43,000 --> 00:05:45,200 centers in space? So while everyone else is 95 00:05:45,200 --> 00:05:48,160 scrabbling around trying to acquire land and energy and 96 00:05:48,160 --> 00:05:52,320 water down here on planet Earth, Musk's vision is is rather more 97 00:05:52,320 --> 00:05:54,840 intergalactic. Yeah, I think he's trying to 98 00:05:54,840 --> 00:05:57,760 leverage what he has with SpaceX, which is that right now 99 00:05:58,120 --> 00:06:01,920 they are the leader in in putting stuff in space in, you 100 00:06:01,920 --> 00:06:03,680 know, launching satellites in particular. 101 00:06:03,960 --> 00:06:06,960 And they can do it more cheaply than a lot of their competitors, 102 00:06:06,960 --> 00:06:08,960 including Jeff Bezos's Blue Origin. 103 00:06:08,960 --> 00:06:11,840 Bezos has talked about putting infrastructure in or 104 00:06:11,840 --> 00:06:14,280 manufacturing in space actually for a number of years. 105 00:06:14,960 --> 00:06:17,920 So it is kind of this potential first mover advantage. 106 00:06:17,920 --> 00:06:21,320 What needs to happen though is the cost of putting a kilogram 107 00:06:21,320 --> 00:06:24,200 of any material in space or just putting the stuff in space needs 108 00:06:24,200 --> 00:06:26,440 to go way down. There needs to be a lot of 109 00:06:26,440 --> 00:06:30,200 innovation in how you run a data center, how you replace it's 110 00:06:30,200 --> 00:06:32,160 hardware every five years perhaps. 111 00:06:32,400 --> 00:06:35,600 But it is this dream of them being 1st and being kind of 112 00:06:35,600 --> 00:06:38,320 beyond the strictures of Earth so that, as Helia said, they can 113 00:06:38,320 --> 00:06:40,680 access unlimited solar energy perhaps. 114 00:06:41,240 --> 00:06:45,520 Heli, just on that point then, I mean, is it potentially if not 115 00:06:45,560 --> 00:06:50,080 now obviously, but in future going to be cheaper to have data 116 00:06:50,080 --> 00:06:54,880 centers in space, going to be more financially viable to do it 117 00:06:54,880 --> 00:06:58,400 up there down here? That is the claim that you save 118 00:06:58,400 --> 00:07:02,720 both on the energy corset so that in terms of cooling gets 119 00:07:02,720 --> 00:07:07,480 easier, and some of the reports by different consultancy firms 120 00:07:07,480 --> 00:07:10,160 claim that it would be 50% cheaper. 121 00:07:10,160 --> 00:07:13,200 And of course you don't have part of the infrastructure 122 00:07:13,200 --> 00:07:17,800 around water that you would need here on lowly planet Earth. 123 00:07:18,120 --> 00:07:22,560 But of course, all of this feeds Kieran into Musk's kind of 124 00:07:22,720 --> 00:07:27,760 rather grandiose vision of him self, you know, not just 125 00:07:27,760 --> 00:07:31,360 creating data centres that, as he put in his blog post, is 126 00:07:31,360 --> 00:07:34,480 going to serve, you know, the citizens of Earth, but is 127 00:07:34,480 --> 00:07:39,560 actually going to help create self, you know, serving the 128 00:07:39,680 --> 00:07:42,920 civilizations that will ultimately end up in Mars. 129 00:07:42,920 --> 00:07:46,720 So it is this really big big ideas. 130 00:07:47,160 --> 00:07:48,960 Yeah, you can't. You can't fault the ambition, 131 00:07:49,200 --> 00:07:52,720 Jacob, can you? But I mean, I don't know, it 132 00:07:52,720 --> 00:07:54,320 feels like this is all happening so quickly. 133 00:07:54,320 --> 00:07:56,480 And then today, here we are talking about what? 134 00:07:56,480 --> 00:07:58,360 Maybe factories on the moon Jacob. 135 00:07:58,520 --> 00:08:01,720 Yeah, it could seem a little grandiose, certainly. 136 00:08:01,720 --> 00:08:06,320 And also just like, ripped from the sci-fi novels of must Youth, 137 00:08:06,320 --> 00:08:09,560 which has always been away. He's seen the world or the 138 00:08:09,560 --> 00:08:11,960 universe, the cosmos. I mean, he has long said he 139 00:08:11,960 --> 00:08:16,320 wants to name his city on Mars, Terminus, after an Isaac Asimov 140 00:08:16,360 --> 00:08:20,600 novel or series of novels. And I would encourage people 141 00:08:20,600 --> 00:08:24,360 actually to go to the SpaceX website and read the blog posts 142 00:08:24,360 --> 00:08:27,880 that Hell he was referring to because he spells it out, which 143 00:08:27,880 --> 00:08:30,640 is, you know, first data centers in space, then stuff on the 144 00:08:30,640 --> 00:08:34,240 moon, then Mars and the light of consciousness extended 145 00:08:34,240 --> 00:08:37,240 everywhere. And, you know, there the that's 146 00:08:37,240 --> 00:08:40,600 the vision. And if you just take a look at 147 00:08:40,600 --> 00:08:43,000 what's going on down here on Earth right now, it seems a bit 148 00:08:43,000 --> 00:08:47,960 more like someone is combining a lot of his very costly ventures 149 00:08:47,960 --> 00:08:51,520 together and hoping that some magical synergies will emerge. 150 00:08:52,160 --> 00:08:56,000 But if if you peel away, hell yeah, some, some of this, the 151 00:08:56,000 --> 00:09:00,040 space stuff is it's actually quite a cool headed business 152 00:09:00,080 --> 00:09:05,040 decision because you you've got the XAI which which is losing 153 00:09:05,040 --> 00:09:08,360 money folded in with SpaceX, which is going to float 154 00:09:08,360 --> 00:09:12,120 publicly, we think sometime this year that can sort of 1 can 155 00:09:12,120 --> 00:09:17,440 subsidise the other. SpaceX needs AIAI needs SpaceX, 156 00:09:17,440 --> 00:09:20,920 doesn't it? And, you know, his other 157 00:09:20,920 --> 00:09:23,560 businesses, people like, you know, companies like Tesla, 158 00:09:23,560 --> 00:09:27,000 which he wants to work with XAI as well. 159 00:09:27,000 --> 00:09:32,760 He wants XAI to be making, you know, operational AI programmes 160 00:09:32,760 --> 00:09:36,280 within those cars as well. He wants Tesla to move into a 161 00:09:36,280 --> 00:09:37,880 robotics firm. Yeah. 162 00:09:37,880 --> 00:09:43,240 I mean, clearly there is a industrial use case from a 163 00:09:43,240 --> 00:09:45,720 capital perspective. You know, there's been lots of 164 00:09:45,720 --> 00:09:49,360 talk about the huge funds. I saw a report that was 165 00:09:49,360 --> 00:09:55,520 suggesting that, you know, there are 10 start AI startups that 166 00:09:55,520 --> 00:10:00,520 saw just last year alone their valuation increase by a trillion 167 00:10:00,520 --> 00:10:03,280 dollars. That's, you know, companies 168 00:10:03,280 --> 00:10:07,640 including Open AI. These are AI startups. 169 00:10:07,640 --> 00:10:12,720 So these are huge amounts of valuation being added to this 170 00:10:12,720 --> 00:10:14,600 company. I mean, in fact, even just in 171 00:10:14,600 --> 00:10:20,600 this deal alone, I would tell you that SpaceX, he's he's upped 172 00:10:20,600 --> 00:10:24,480 the valuation just from December, it's gone up by 200 or 173 00:10:24,480 --> 00:10:28,520 so billion dollars for Spacex's value. 174 00:10:28,840 --> 00:10:31,640 So the kind of money you're talking about is huge. 175 00:10:31,640 --> 00:10:38,680 The kind of cap X required to, you know, build out the 176 00:10:38,680 --> 00:10:42,920 infrastructure is huge. And so all of these businesses 177 00:10:42,920 --> 00:10:46,880 at the moment, all of these companies are busy trying to 178 00:10:47,200 --> 00:10:52,240 create some kind of circular financing, some ways of bringing 179 00:10:52,240 --> 00:10:56,360 money in. And by bringing money into an 180 00:10:56,360 --> 00:11:00,720 enlarged Group, A super company that's going to list on the 181 00:11:00,720 --> 00:11:05,200 stock market and raise all of this cash, it also not only does 182 00:11:05,200 --> 00:11:10,160 it give that company money to spend and it kind of starves the 183 00:11:10,160 --> 00:11:14,760 ecosystem and his rivals from getting some of that capital. 184 00:11:15,080 --> 00:11:17,560 Because he wants to compete, doesn't he? 185 00:11:17,560 --> 00:11:20,560 In the AI field? But he hasn't got the capital in 186 00:11:20,560 --> 00:11:24,200 X AI to do it, has he? Well, I think exactly. 187 00:11:24,200 --> 00:11:27,840 And I think that there is a, there is a feeling within tech 188 00:11:27,840 --> 00:11:31,440 bosses in the US that it's winner take all. 189 00:11:31,680 --> 00:11:36,960 And therefore you should do everything you can to, to, to 190 00:11:36,960 --> 00:11:42,440 build out as fast as you can to go towards AGI as fast as you 191 00:11:42,440 --> 00:11:45,720 can because the gains are going to be so massive. 192 00:11:45,960 --> 00:11:49,240 So it doesn't matter if you inflate the industry along the 193 00:11:49,240 --> 00:11:50,600 way. It doesn't matter if there's a 194 00:11:50,600 --> 00:11:55,480 whole lot of market turmoil because there will be one or two 195 00:11:55,480 --> 00:11:59,040 companies at the end who will, you know, reap the rewards. 196 00:11:59,520 --> 00:12:01,480 And if it's winner take all, Jacobs isn't it? 197 00:12:01,480 --> 00:12:04,080 I mean, Elon Musk gonna want to be the winner. 198 00:12:04,280 --> 00:12:06,720 Oh yeah, that's absolutely his motivation. 199 00:12:06,720 --> 00:12:11,520 And I think as, as we're getting at here, that the winner is 200 00:12:11,520 --> 00:12:14,240 going to come at least the the notion, I the popular notion 201 00:12:14,240 --> 00:12:16,960 among a lot of these startups and these big income and tech 202 00:12:16,960 --> 00:12:19,560 companies is that the winners coming by just spending the most 203 00:12:19,560 --> 00:12:22,040 money and scaling the infrastructure as much as 204 00:12:22,040 --> 00:12:23,400 possible. I mean, there has been some 205 00:12:23,400 --> 00:12:26,240 questioning within the AI industry that, you know, is just 206 00:12:26,240 --> 00:12:29,440 scaling LLM's the the sort of current models we have the way 207 00:12:29,440 --> 00:12:31,560 to go. But that certainly seems to be 208 00:12:31,560 --> 00:12:36,800 what what must thinks. And he I think also the point 209 00:12:36,800 --> 00:12:41,520 about how SpaceX was valued at 800 billion before just in 210 00:12:41,520 --> 00:12:46,080 December, now 1 trillion now shows also how this kind of 211 00:12:46,080 --> 00:12:49,000 scaling is working, which is that the more often he does 212 00:12:49,000 --> 00:12:52,520 these deals, including just raising capital every couple 213 00:12:52,520 --> 00:12:55,840 months, it seems for for AI purposes in some of these, in 214 00:12:55,840 --> 00:12:59,040 some of his companies, every time he gets to kind of pump up 215 00:12:59,040 --> 00:13:00,680 their value and say they're worth more. 216 00:13:00,680 --> 00:13:04,200 And this is also part of kind of circular economy that Musk has 217 00:13:04,200 --> 00:13:06,400 made, made for himself what's been called the Muskani. 218 00:13:06,400 --> 00:13:09,800 I mean, he's always kind of, if not merging things, then doing 219 00:13:09,800 --> 00:13:12,880 deals between his companies frequently now raising capital, 220 00:13:12,880 --> 00:13:16,120 especially for X AI. And each time is, you know, 221 00:13:16,120 --> 00:13:18,440 there's more money being spent, more money being raised, but 222 00:13:18,440 --> 00:13:22,320 also a higher valuation on paper for for these companies. 223 00:13:22,800 --> 00:13:24,360 But you can't just make up numbers. 224 00:13:24,360 --> 00:13:25,640 I mean, if you're going to float, can't. 225 00:13:26,040 --> 00:13:28,800 Can't you query? If you're going to float this 226 00:13:28,800 --> 00:13:31,320 new super company, hell yeah. Surely there has to be some sort 227 00:13:31,320 --> 00:13:35,560 of basis in reality for I know AI everyone is over inflating 228 00:13:35,560 --> 00:13:38,480 left right and centre but I don't know what you think. 229 00:13:38,960 --> 00:13:42,440 Listen, I think there the, the problem you have at the moment 230 00:13:42,440 --> 00:13:49,600 is there is so much investor appetite in AI that you get this 231 00:13:49,640 --> 00:13:54,240 kind of real sense of fear of missing out and that blinds 232 00:13:54,240 --> 00:13:57,280 people to what those valuations mean. 233 00:13:57,280 --> 00:13:58,840 What, what, what are you looking for? 234 00:13:58,840 --> 00:14:01,560 Are you looking for profits? Well, all of these companies are 235 00:14:01,560 --> 00:14:04,280 potentially going to fail. Are you looking for growth? 236 00:14:04,280 --> 00:14:07,040 And then what kind of growth are you talking about and what are 237 00:14:07,040 --> 00:14:10,240 the hurdles? And a lot of investors in the 238 00:14:10,240 --> 00:14:15,720 current wave have been, you know, pushing aside red flags 239 00:14:15,720 --> 00:14:19,760 really because they're so desperate to be involved and be 240 00:14:19,760 --> 00:14:24,680 included on some of these big name tickets because because the 241 00:14:24,680 --> 00:14:27,360 gains that we're talking about, you know, the way these 242 00:14:27,360 --> 00:14:32,560 companies talk up, you know what NVIDIA is going to mean. 243 00:14:32,560 --> 00:14:38,120 I mean, there are there are VC firms that think, well, if we 244 00:14:38,120 --> 00:14:41,040 don't buy in, we're going to miss out completely. 245 00:14:41,040 --> 00:14:44,440 And I think the same is true. Or this is this is what Musk 246 00:14:44,440 --> 00:14:47,520 would obviously like you to believe, that if you are not 247 00:14:47,520 --> 00:14:51,520 investing here, that you are not going to be part of this new 248 00:14:51,520 --> 00:14:55,480 industrial revolution, this AI revolution, which is going to 249 00:14:55,480 --> 00:15:01,040 completely change the economy. But the the more Elon Musk 250 00:15:01,040 --> 00:15:06,200 merges his various enterprises, Jacob, are you investing in any 251 00:15:06,200 --> 00:15:10,080 one of those companies in reality or are you now in future 252 00:15:10,080 --> 00:15:14,000 just whether it's you know, Tesla or SpaceX just investing 253 00:15:14,000 --> 00:15:16,400 in Elon Musk? I think it's the latter. 254 00:15:16,400 --> 00:15:18,680 And you know, this is certainly a move towards what's been 255 00:15:18,680 --> 00:15:22,120 called Musk Corp or Musk Inc, you know, just one large Musk 256 00:15:22,120 --> 00:15:25,000 mega Corp. And given how involved he's 257 00:15:25,000 --> 00:15:28,200 always been in his companies, you know, spread across 5 or 6 258 00:15:28,200 --> 00:15:31,760 of them at, at any given time, at least it's always been about, 259 00:15:31,760 --> 00:15:34,040 I think for a lot of his investors investing in Musk. 260 00:15:34,040 --> 00:15:38,560 And that's why also we see a lot of the same investors investing 261 00:15:38,560 --> 00:15:40,440 across the Musk companies. I mean, this is venture 262 00:15:40,440 --> 00:15:43,600 capitalist, certain financiers who are friends with Musk and 263 00:15:43,600 --> 00:15:45,680 also the Middle Eastern sovereign wealth funds, 264 00:15:45,680 --> 00:15:49,920 especially Saudi Arabia and Qatar and and a number of these 265 00:15:49,920 --> 00:15:53,200 entities have repeatedly kind of ponied up for mosque or a 266 00:15:53,200 --> 00:15:56,280 multiple rounds of XAI for example and it. 267 00:15:56,280 --> 00:15:59,840 And he's building, he's building data centers out there, too. 268 00:16:00,000 --> 00:16:02,680 Yeah. And so I think this is very much 269 00:16:02,680 --> 00:16:06,840 about, you know, using those resources that and sort of that 270 00:16:06,840 --> 00:16:09,560 that strength of personality and celebrity that only he can seem 271 00:16:09,560 --> 00:16:12,560 to bear bring to bear on these mega projects. 272 00:16:12,720 --> 00:16:15,840 Do you think do you think that's going to carry through when he 273 00:16:15,840 --> 00:16:20,240 floats this mega company if it happens this this summer, then 274 00:16:20,280 --> 00:16:24,160 Jacob, that force of personality or investors looking for 275 00:16:24,160 --> 00:16:26,360 something else? Well, I, I think there's a 276 00:16:26,360 --> 00:16:28,080 question of when will the music stop? 277 00:16:28,080 --> 00:16:31,040 And there have to be some major returns and actual innovations 278 00:16:31,040 --> 00:16:33,280 here. I mean, the same might be said 279 00:16:33,280 --> 00:16:36,040 for some of the other AI companies, especially like Open 280 00:16:36,040 --> 00:16:38,320 AI, which is committed to spending more than a trillion 281 00:16:38,320 --> 00:16:41,440 dollars on data center infrastructure, but doesn't 282 00:16:41,440 --> 00:16:44,160 necessarily have that money and doesn't have to show signs of 283 00:16:44,160 --> 00:16:45,680 having that kind of revenue ahead. 284 00:16:45,680 --> 00:16:49,320 So Musk can kind of carry on this kind of dance longer, I 285 00:16:49,320 --> 00:16:52,840 think especially as he does these these mergers and he has 286 00:16:52,840 --> 00:16:54,840 such a wide portfolio of interests. 287 00:16:55,240 --> 00:16:58,040 But eventually, some of these returns will will finally have 288 00:16:58,040 --> 00:17:01,320 to materialize, and he has been able to push the ball down the 289 00:17:01,320 --> 00:17:03,680 road with things like full self driving. 290 00:17:04,160 --> 00:17:08,319 His promises keep changing, but you know, just this week he said 291 00:17:08,319 --> 00:17:10,119 that there will be. Dating quite a lot. 292 00:17:10,200 --> 00:17:11,520 Yes and just. Right. 293 00:17:11,520 --> 00:17:15,800 I mean, like news that he fails his own metrics quite often. 294 00:17:15,800 --> 00:17:20,040 Yeah, but he does seem to get forgiven by his investors, which 295 00:17:20,040 --> 00:17:20,800 is. Extraordinary. 296 00:17:20,920 --> 00:17:23,440 It is extraordinary. And, you know, he said just this 297 00:17:23,440 --> 00:17:25,520 week we're gonna have data centers in space within two to 298 00:17:25,520 --> 00:17:27,319 three years. I mean, last month he was saying 299 00:17:27,599 --> 00:17:30,800 in five years is any of this stuff going to happen? 300 00:17:30,800 --> 00:17:33,520 And especially some of these major investors like the Middle 301 00:17:33,520 --> 00:17:36,160 Eastern sovereign wealth funds kind of get tired of this 302 00:17:36,160 --> 00:17:39,200 eventually because they will need their returns even as they 303 00:17:39,200 --> 00:17:42,280 want the kind of influence over must that they can have already. 304 00:17:42,920 --> 00:17:46,000 Yeah, if you're talking about actual market performance, we've 305 00:17:46,000 --> 00:17:49,880 got some Tesla car sales numbers didn't be in Europe recently and 306 00:17:49,880 --> 00:17:53,680 they were down at 42% in France, year on year to January, they 307 00:17:53,680 --> 00:17:56,200 only sold 661. Yeah, there. 308 00:17:56,720 --> 00:17:59,400 Was some worrying numbers if you're an investor in Tesla, 309 00:17:59,400 --> 00:18:01,160 aren't they? Yes, yeah. 310 00:18:01,160 --> 00:18:04,520 But I mean, it's no longer an EV firm, Kieran. 311 00:18:04,520 --> 00:18:08,960 It's now going to be a robotics firm and a taxi firm. 312 00:18:09,440 --> 00:18:11,720 So. So, you know, don't worry about 313 00:18:11,720 --> 00:18:14,400 that. I mean, BYD, obviously when it 314 00:18:14,400 --> 00:18:19,720 comes to Tesla, he's had a real encroachment into the top spots 315 00:18:19,720 --> 00:18:23,280 by Chinese BYD, especially in Europe. 316 00:18:23,520 --> 00:18:27,480 And then you've had all of these tax subsidies taken away in 317 00:18:27,800 --> 00:18:31,200 Trump's presidency and that has really damaged Tesla. 318 00:18:31,200 --> 00:18:36,720 But he is trying to pivot now to robotics to I can't remember 319 00:18:36,720 --> 00:18:40,680 what his what is his robot called exactly? 320 00:18:40,680 --> 00:18:42,000 Do you? Think he's giving up on cars, 321 00:18:42,000 --> 00:18:44,040 Sir Jacob? Do you think he's all robots? 322 00:18:44,120 --> 00:18:47,560 Now, well, this is The thing is, I mean, he seems so committed to 323 00:18:47,560 --> 00:18:50,720 Tesla, but now, you know, suddenly it's robots. 324 00:18:50,720 --> 00:18:53,280 And I mean, the few demonstrations we've seen of 325 00:18:53,280 --> 00:18:55,160 optimists have been unimpressive. 326 00:18:55,160 --> 00:18:58,320 And a number of them we've, there's been confirmed reporting 327 00:18:58,320 --> 00:19:01,720 that these were basically remote controlled by human operators. 328 00:19:01,720 --> 00:19:06,760 I mean, they're the, I think Musk is running out of runway 329 00:19:06,760 --> 00:19:09,240 and promises he can make in, in some ways. 330 00:19:09,240 --> 00:19:12,360 And I think that the point about the, the BYD cars is very 331 00:19:12,360 --> 00:19:13,880 important. The Huawei and other Chinese 332 00:19:13,880 --> 00:19:16,480 brands. And we had the CEO Ford talking 333 00:19:16,480 --> 00:19:21,120 about how he bought one of the Chinese cars, I believe a Huawei 334 00:19:21,120 --> 00:19:24,960 or BYD had it brought to the US and he loved it and felt rather 335 00:19:24,960 --> 00:19:27,720 jealous of it. And as you said earlier, the 336 00:19:27,720 --> 00:19:31,520 numbers are, are, aren't there. I mean, the, the, the sales are 337 00:19:31,520 --> 00:19:34,440 dropping around the world. And you know, this is also about 338 00:19:34,440 --> 00:19:37,160 must politics, which is, you know, Tesla was how he was 339 00:19:37,160 --> 00:19:41,040 reaching a lot of consumers and also his sort of soft 340 00:19:41,040 --> 00:19:43,760 underbelly. And now he has alienated a lot 341 00:19:43,760 --> 00:19:47,360 of people, especially in Europe where he is very active in kind 342 00:19:47,360 --> 00:19:51,520 of right wing agitation. And people would rather buy cars 343 00:19:51,520 --> 00:19:54,200 that are cheaper and better and don't come with that kind of 344 00:19:54,200 --> 00:19:58,160 political baggage attached. If we're talking about 345 00:19:58,360 --> 00:20:01,760 competition with China, and then you look at a company like 346 00:20:01,760 --> 00:20:06,240 SpaceX, which is now going to be even bigger, it's unique, isn't 347 00:20:06,240 --> 00:20:07,920 it? SpaceX there's, there's nobody 348 00:20:07,920 --> 00:20:10,480 else doing what SpaceX is doing. Yeah. 349 00:20:10,480 --> 00:20:12,880 And I think that's one of must remaining strengths, which is 350 00:20:12,880 --> 00:20:15,360 that the the US government, certainly the Department of 351 00:20:15,360 --> 00:20:18,600 Defense needs SpaceX for its launch capabilities and and has 352 00:20:18,600 --> 00:20:21,920 subsidized it to to that extent and given it a lot of contracts. 353 00:20:22,480 --> 00:20:25,680 What might be a little weaker about SpaceX, and this is again, 354 00:20:25,680 --> 00:20:28,520 speaks to the kind of person Musk is and trying to fulfill 355 00:20:28,520 --> 00:20:30,920 these science fictional fantasies, is the amount of 356 00:20:30,920 --> 00:20:33,920 money that's been invested in Starship and this plan to 357 00:20:33,920 --> 00:20:36,880 eventually go to Mars. I mean, he's kind of ignored or 358 00:20:36,880 --> 00:20:40,560 at least not emphasized the core business of basically satellite 359 00:20:40,560 --> 00:20:43,360 launch and putting cargo into space, which they do pretty 360 00:20:43,360 --> 00:20:46,680 well. But also, you know, in favor of 361 00:20:47,040 --> 00:20:49,600 of paying a lot of money and pouring a lot of resources into 362 00:20:49,600 --> 00:20:53,240 this dream of making a massive Starship that can take us deeper 363 00:20:53,240 --> 00:20:55,880 into the cosmos. But it's interesting, Karen, 364 00:20:55,880 --> 00:21:01,200 that, you know, he's really infiltrated the, the kind of 365 00:21:01,200 --> 00:21:06,160 NASA contract space, you know, when, when SpaceX was first 366 00:21:06,200 --> 00:21:10,440 formed, they undercut rivals. They bid really cheaply, you 367 00:21:10,440 --> 00:21:18,200 know, back in 2002 or 2000 and sorry, 2008 and, and now all of 368 00:21:18,200 --> 00:21:20,240 these contracts. I mean, it's very hard to 369 00:21:20,240 --> 00:21:24,760 imagine how NASA could have the capabilities to ferry their 370 00:21:24,760 --> 00:21:27,840 equipment and their astronauts to the Space Center without 371 00:21:27,840 --> 00:21:30,880 SpaceX. So these are companies that are 372 00:21:30,880 --> 00:21:36,920 using, you know, government contracts, taxpayer money 373 00:21:36,920 --> 00:21:42,640 essentially to to help them grow, to help them develop. 374 00:21:42,640 --> 00:21:46,440 And then of course, they become very powerful, very dominant. 375 00:21:46,720 --> 00:21:50,440 And it's very hard for governments then to pull 376 00:21:50,440 --> 00:21:52,960 themselves out of these relationships. 377 00:21:54,160 --> 00:21:57,840 So, so let's let's go big picture, you know, about like 378 00:21:57,840 --> 00:22:01,680 what, what on earth is he actually up to or what in space 379 00:22:02,000 --> 00:22:04,960 is he actually up to, you might say in this scenario? 380 00:22:04,960 --> 00:22:10,480 Because is he this visionary that is able to see into the 381 00:22:10,480 --> 00:22:12,200 future in the way that nobody else can? 382 00:22:12,200 --> 00:22:15,760 Or is he just a sort of a risk taker and a gambler? 383 00:22:16,000 --> 00:22:19,040 Which is it? Well, I would say, I would say 384 00:22:19,040 --> 00:22:21,960 more the latter, but also he is someone who kind of drags us 385 00:22:21,960 --> 00:22:26,280 into his vision of the future. I mean, because of especially 386 00:22:26,280 --> 00:22:28,040 now the amount of resources he can deploy. 387 00:22:28,080 --> 00:22:30,720 You know, Musk has put more satellites into space than 388 00:22:30,720 --> 00:22:33,360 anyone. And a lot of that now supports 389 00:22:33,360 --> 00:22:37,200 Starlink, this this global communications network that he 390 00:22:37,200 --> 00:22:41,360 has done a lot to hype and that, you know, provides a useful 391 00:22:41,360 --> 00:22:44,680 service to some. But it is maybe not the kind of 392 00:22:45,200 --> 00:22:47,440 innovation he has claimed it to be. 393 00:22:47,440 --> 00:22:50,640 But again, we are often kind of being forced to play by must 394 00:22:50,640 --> 00:22:53,240 rules. So if he wants to put a million 395 00:22:53,240 --> 00:22:56,640 satellites in the space, despite whatever native consequences 396 00:22:56,640 --> 00:22:59,840 there might be, but that's the that's the new promise, then we 397 00:22:59,840 --> 00:23:02,920 might, given his power and tremendous resources, just have 398 00:23:02,920 --> 00:23:04,880 to follow along and watch as he enacts that. 399 00:23:05,360 --> 00:23:08,120 It's interesting. I when I interviewed Jason 400 00:23:09,080 --> 00:23:15,600 Jensen Huang from the NVIDIA boss, asked him about Musk, he 401 00:23:15,600 --> 00:23:18,640 was very kind of diplomatic on saying, you know, he doesn't 402 00:23:18,640 --> 00:23:22,440 agree with his politics necessarily, but that as a 403 00:23:22,440 --> 00:23:27,160 technologist he is a visionary. So I think within the tech 404 00:23:27,160 --> 00:23:30,240 community, he's seen as a visionary. 405 00:23:30,520 --> 00:23:37,920 He clearly knows how to leverage his celebrity to exert as much 406 00:23:38,040 --> 00:23:42,400 power and influence as possible. I mean, I remember when he 407 00:23:42,400 --> 00:23:48,160 originally bought X, which was Twitter for $44 billion, people 408 00:23:48,160 --> 00:23:50,840 were thinking, you know, what is this all about? 409 00:23:51,200 --> 00:23:54,360 And there's obviously an argument to say it was about 410 00:23:54,360 --> 00:23:58,440 political power. But it's clearly also this idea 411 00:23:58,440 --> 00:24:02,200 that the technologies of the future where computers 412 00:24:02,200 --> 00:24:05,920 important, where AI is important, where data is 413 00:24:05,920 --> 00:24:10,880 important, bringing all of these things together helps your 414 00:24:10,880 --> 00:24:14,800 business grow. So you are able to train your 415 00:24:15,280 --> 00:24:21,000 chatbot, you're able to train Grok on this vast, um, data that 416 00:24:21,000 --> 00:24:25,880 is created by users on X. So the the synergies that he is 417 00:24:25,880 --> 00:24:33,360 able to create and and and take advantage of basically are huge. 418 00:24:34,160 --> 00:24:37,200 You, you mentioned Grok Helly and we obviously had that 419 00:24:37,200 --> 00:24:41,920 scandal in the past few weeks about image generation on Grok 420 00:24:41,920 --> 00:24:47,760 and that that's just one small aspect of his empire and it was 421 00:24:47,960 --> 00:24:50,840 very problematic for. Him and there's pushback, by the 422 00:24:50,840 --> 00:24:54,120 way, here there's pushback here, there's pushback in France where 423 00:24:54,120 --> 00:24:57,520 there's been a raid, there's a there's pushback even in the US. 424 00:24:57,760 --> 00:25:03,560 So it's not that he's completely unencumbered, but you know, his, 425 00:25:03,560 --> 00:25:06,000 his power, our base is, is extraordinary. 426 00:25:06,280 --> 00:25:10,000 Yeah, but but at the same time, we were talking about something 427 00:25:10,000 --> 00:25:11,840 much bigger potentially here, aren't we? 428 00:25:11,840 --> 00:25:15,000 I mean, you know, you said it's the the biggest private company 429 00:25:15,000 --> 00:25:17,760 in the world that he's about to to to create Jacob. 430 00:25:17,760 --> 00:25:21,920 I mean, should we have concerns that so much power potentially 431 00:25:21,920 --> 00:25:25,040 is in one man's hands and that man is Elon Musk? 432 00:25:25,080 --> 00:25:27,760 Certainly. And I think we've seen some 433 00:25:27,760 --> 00:25:29,560 pretty negative consequences already. 434 00:25:29,560 --> 00:25:34,720 And, you know, I think no one needs that much money or power. 435 00:25:34,720 --> 00:25:37,240 And there are uniquely distorting effects from having 436 00:25:37,240 --> 00:25:41,120 so much wealth. I mean, we could talk about the 437 00:25:41,120 --> 00:25:44,720 2024 election alone. And I think actually the point 438 00:25:44,720 --> 00:25:48,920 about Musk buying Twitter slash X for $44 billion and people 439 00:25:48,920 --> 00:25:51,200 kind of thinking, what is he going to do with this is a good 440 00:25:51,200 --> 00:25:53,040 one. Because we saw what he ended up 441 00:25:53,040 --> 00:25:55,680 doing with it, which was that it helped him essentially win the 442 00:25:55,680 --> 00:26:00,480 2024 election and become this enormous propagandists on behalf 443 00:26:00,480 --> 00:26:04,800 of of far right issues and, and often, you know, spread false 444 00:26:04,800 --> 00:26:07,480 information and some horrible lies about people. 445 00:26:07,480 --> 00:26:11,160 So, you know, that is a way in which Musk has unique 446 00:26:11,160 --> 00:26:14,760 capabilities and I think ones that might be, you know, harmful 447 00:26:14,760 --> 00:26:17,960 to democracy. And I don't think in in a lot of 448 00:26:17,960 --> 00:26:22,040 ways, the costs of Musk are necessarily worth the the 449 00:26:22,040 --> 00:26:24,840 supposed societal benefits. And I think that's what people 450 00:26:24,840 --> 00:26:28,600 are starting to see now. But with a $1.2 trillion 451 00:26:28,600 --> 00:26:31,000 company, or however big it might be, by the time it goes public 452 00:26:31,000 --> 00:26:34,240 this summer, he'll have a lot that he'll be able to do. 453 00:26:35,080 --> 00:26:37,960 And Kieran, I mean, these are questions at the moment that are 454 00:26:37,960 --> 00:26:41,840 particularly pertinent because given everything that is 455 00:26:41,840 --> 00:26:47,240 happening in geopolitics where Europe is having to re evaluate 456 00:26:47,240 --> 00:26:53,800 its relationship with the US again, that discussion about do 457 00:26:53,800 --> 00:26:56,440 we just become takers of America? 458 00:26:56,720 --> 00:27:01,520 Tech infrastructure is even more important because if we have 459 00:27:01,520 --> 00:27:06,360 problems with some of these companies, European countries 460 00:27:06,360 --> 00:27:09,040 have very little leverage in reality. 461 00:27:09,280 --> 00:27:13,400 And there's been lots of talk through the years, I remember of 462 00:27:13,680 --> 00:27:17,600 Europe creating their own versions, creating alternatives. 463 00:27:17,920 --> 00:27:22,920 But fundamentally, we are now doing an AI, exactly what we did 464 00:27:22,920 --> 00:27:26,440 with social media companies and search engines, where we are a 465 00:27:26,520 --> 00:27:30,920 taker of US technology, US tech infrastructure. 466 00:27:31,280 --> 00:27:37,840 I mean, one example that I think of all the time is something 467 00:27:37,840 --> 00:27:41,880 that we have a lot of data on in this country, in the UK is 468 00:27:42,160 --> 00:27:45,840 health. Because the NHS brings all of, 469 00:27:46,600 --> 00:27:49,720 you know, the populations, countries, data together. 470 00:27:49,720 --> 00:27:53,600 I mean not perfectly by the way, but it does theoretically bring 471 00:27:53,600 --> 00:27:58,200 our whole country's health record together, which is an 472 00:27:58,200 --> 00:28:02,000 incredible source to train AI on. 473 00:28:02,240 --> 00:28:06,520 And during COVID, the government gave another U.S. company, 474 00:28:06,520 --> 00:28:13,800 Palantir, the contract to help us with some COVID contracts and 475 00:28:13,800 --> 00:28:15,920 they and Palantir did it for a pound. 476 00:28:16,240 --> 00:28:20,760 But by the way, two years later, once the pandemic was over, we 477 00:28:20,760 --> 00:28:27,080 were signing over multi £100 million deals with Palantir to 478 00:28:27,080 --> 00:28:30,520 do different NHS contracts and not just NHS. 479 00:28:30,560 --> 00:28:34,120 It then escalated to be MOD contracts as well. 480 00:28:34,560 --> 00:28:39,960 And in that way we are we are opening ourselves making us more 481 00:28:39,960 --> 00:28:44,560 susceptible in fields possibly where we have the ability to 482 00:28:44,560 --> 00:28:47,640 have home grown talent, but we haven't invested there. 483 00:28:48,680 --> 00:28:51,800 Not really, but to be honest, I don't think they they need to, 484 00:28:51,800 --> 00:28:55,160 you know, there's a lot lacking in, you know, perhaps in the 485 00:28:55,160 --> 00:28:58,000 European tech scene. And I think Hellio was getting 486 00:28:58,000 --> 00:29:01,000 at, you know, this, this kind of dependency that that is 487 00:29:01,000 --> 00:29:03,360 unfortunately the case, the same kind of dependency that maybe 488 00:29:03,360 --> 00:29:06,720 the Department of Defense here in the US has on Musk, you know, 489 00:29:06,720 --> 00:29:09,000 Europe has on a lot of US tech companies. 490 00:29:09,000 --> 00:29:12,800 But, you know, I, I think we don't need necessarily European 491 00:29:12,800 --> 00:29:16,640 CEO's talking about going to the moon or Mars, but we we, you 492 00:29:16,640 --> 00:29:20,000 know, we do need viable alternatives and, you know, a 493 00:29:20,000 --> 00:29:23,880 kind of homegrown text scene and the kind of regulations and laws 494 00:29:23,880 --> 00:29:26,840 and enforcement that European countries want for themselves. 495 00:29:26,840 --> 00:29:30,080 I mean, we did see a little bit of that today with French 496 00:29:30,080 --> 00:29:33,840 authorities rating that the ex office in Paris because the Grok 497 00:29:33,840 --> 00:29:37,000 chatbot has been creating sexualized images of people 498 00:29:37,000 --> 00:29:40,360 without their consent. So, you know, it will be up to, 499 00:29:40,360 --> 00:29:43,160 I think to Europe to and to European countries about what 500 00:29:43,160 --> 00:29:45,920 kind of future they want to create there and how to how to 501 00:29:45,920 --> 00:29:49,240 get there. But you know that that thought 502 00:29:49,240 --> 00:29:52,240 is in the air now just as Europe is trying to think more about 503 00:29:52,240 --> 00:29:54,800 its own self-defense and its role in NATO and its 504 00:29:54,800 --> 00:29:56,240 relationship with the United States. 505 00:29:56,720 --> 00:29:59,560 That same kind of re evaluation of its relationship with US tech 506 00:29:59,560 --> 00:30:02,400 companies and US billionaires is ongoing, I think. 507 00:30:03,080 --> 00:30:07,640 And you mentioned it earlier, Jacob, about Musk Inc and about 508 00:30:07,640 --> 00:30:10,920 that potentially being where we're headed here, that all the 509 00:30:10,920 --> 00:30:15,840 various Musk entities get folded into one with him at the top of 510 00:30:15,840 --> 00:30:18,120 it. I mean, how soon do you think we 511 00:30:18,120 --> 00:30:19,520 could be seeing something like that? 512 00:30:19,520 --> 00:30:21,480 And that's not a given either, is it? 513 00:30:21,480 --> 00:30:23,560 There are obstacles before you can get someone like that. 514 00:30:23,560 --> 00:30:24,840 Yeah. I think there's one question 515 00:30:24,840 --> 00:30:27,720 about first, Tesla is the one publicly traded company at the 516 00:30:27,720 --> 00:30:32,000 moment in his portfolio that might have to stay sort of 517 00:30:32,200 --> 00:30:36,120 nominally independent that way. But I don't see much reason why 518 00:30:36,120 --> 00:30:38,920 all of his other companies might be combined together. 519 00:30:38,920 --> 00:30:41,720 I mean, what what do we have left with the Boring Company? 520 00:30:41,720 --> 00:30:44,920 Neuralink, you know, some of his smaller interests, Neuralink 521 00:30:44,920 --> 00:30:47,200 could be lumped in with robotics and AI. 522 00:30:48,080 --> 00:30:51,520 So I think Musk is someone who likes a lot of control, of 523 00:30:51,520 --> 00:30:55,680 course, like a lot of lot of billionaires, and has long seen 524 00:30:55,680 --> 00:30:58,360 his own role as kind of centralizing all these interests 525 00:30:58,360 --> 00:31:00,880 together. So, you know, if the investors 526 00:31:01,080 --> 00:31:04,560 are on board for another round or two of this, I think by next 527 00:31:04,560 --> 00:31:08,720 year you could see most of us non Tesla companies be just, you 528 00:31:08,720 --> 00:31:11,840 know, under SpaceX or under someone X company. 529 00:31:12,120 --> 00:31:15,440 And where would that sit then? Hellier in terms of the pantheon 530 00:31:15,520 --> 00:31:18,760 of big, powerful, great companies in the world right 531 00:31:18,760 --> 00:31:21,800 now. Well, at the moment NVIDIA is 532 00:31:21,800 --> 00:31:25,400 the world's biggest company listed company. 533 00:31:25,400 --> 00:31:29,160 I think that's on about four and a half trillion dollars. 534 00:31:29,160 --> 00:31:34,720 So you have Microsoft, which had a bit of a stumble last week. 535 00:31:35,360 --> 00:31:40,240 You have Google, Alphabet, the owner of Google. 536 00:31:40,520 --> 00:31:44,520 So these are huge, vast companies. 537 00:31:44,800 --> 00:31:49,440 And I think it's back to that idea of there being a race. 538 00:31:49,720 --> 00:31:54,000 And this isn't just a race between companies, private 539 00:31:54,000 --> 00:31:57,920 companies or listed companies. This is a race between the US, 540 00:31:58,240 --> 00:32:03,680 US and China. And the anxieties that lots of 541 00:32:03,680 --> 00:32:09,400 companies feel in the US about losing out to China as a tech 542 00:32:09,400 --> 00:32:13,920 behemoth, as an AI behemoth. And when we're talking about, 543 00:32:13,920 --> 00:32:17,680 you know, being able to conglomerate data, you know, the 544 00:32:17,680 --> 00:32:21,000 best in class is really the Chinese government. 545 00:32:21,000 --> 00:32:22,840 No one really competes with that. 546 00:32:23,200 --> 00:32:28,080 So yes, these companies are big, but they are all all, they have 547 00:32:28,240 --> 00:32:32,280 one thing in mind, which is not just to beat each other, but 548 00:32:32,280 --> 00:32:35,840 also to beat, you know, the world's second biggest 549 00:32:35,840 --> 00:32:38,160 superpower. Yeah, quite. 550 00:32:38,160 --> 00:32:40,880 And potentially to have more power than the governments that 551 00:32:40,880 --> 00:32:42,640 we elect, right, Jacob? Yes. 552 00:32:42,640 --> 00:32:46,040 And I think that is 1 concerning thing of course, about the power 553 00:32:46,040 --> 00:32:48,160 of tech companies and the geopolitical role they play. 554 00:32:48,160 --> 00:32:49,600 Now. I think one important 555 00:32:49,600 --> 00:32:53,240 distinction also here that we should note is that most of the 556 00:32:53,240 --> 00:32:55,720 companies we're talking about are the competitors to Musk are 557 00:32:55,720 --> 00:32:58,640 publicly traded. Not all of them like open AI, of 558 00:32:58,640 --> 00:33:01,560 course, but these, these most valuable companies in the world. 559 00:33:01,560 --> 00:33:04,840 And because of the way public markets work and for example, 560 00:33:05,320 --> 00:33:08,000 SEC filings here in the US, we know more about what these 561 00:33:08,000 --> 00:33:12,520 companies do and the profits they they generate and, and 562 00:33:12,520 --> 00:33:13,800 where they get their revenue from. 563 00:33:13,800 --> 00:33:17,600 And if we have some giant Musk Corp that's privately held, 564 00:33:17,600 --> 00:33:22,320 which is where we are right now, we know a lot less about how his 565 00:33:22,480 --> 00:33:25,960 business empire operates. And, and is it making money? 566 00:33:25,960 --> 00:33:27,600 You know, is it, is it making profits? 567 00:33:27,600 --> 00:33:31,800 So that is a little bit of of a different animal I think than 568 00:33:32,000 --> 00:33:35,520 you know, the comparisons to NVIDIA or Google or Microsoft 569 00:33:35,520 --> 00:33:37,920 are really important, but also that that distinction I think 570 00:33:38,120 --> 00:33:39,760 will make it a different kind of operator. 571 00:33:39,960 --> 00:33:42,560 There will have to be a prospectus care and there will 572 00:33:42,560 --> 00:33:46,560 have to actually be, you know, line items about where the 573 00:33:46,560 --> 00:33:50,320 revenue is coming from, about what the margin is, about who 574 00:33:50,320 --> 00:33:54,200 the customers are. All of that detail will be, you 575 00:33:54,200 --> 00:33:58,640 know, a level of transparency we haven't seen before. 576 00:33:58,640 --> 00:34:03,240 And even today's deal, you know, the scant information about it 577 00:34:03,240 --> 00:34:07,560 and that if it's if this company becomes listed, will change. 578 00:34:07,800 --> 00:34:11,760 Well, let's let's end where we started them with the with the 579 00:34:11,760 --> 00:34:14,800 prospect, you know, this new merged company actually being 580 00:34:15,000 --> 00:34:16,639 listed. I mean, there's going to be a 581 00:34:16,639 --> 00:34:18,199 lot of hype around that isn't that. 582 00:34:18,199 --> 00:34:21,239 It's going to be one of the the biggest things that the market 583 00:34:21,239 --> 00:34:25,440 has seen for quite some time. Yeah, I I was curious when I was 584 00:34:25,440 --> 00:34:28,239 reading about this merger yesterday on Bloomberg, I 585 00:34:28,239 --> 00:34:31,520 believe just on the news site and right below the the news 586 00:34:31,520 --> 00:34:34,120 article about it, there was an opportunity to Click to find out 587 00:34:34,120 --> 00:34:37,199 how to invest in SpaceX. How how I could, you know, buy 588 00:34:37,199 --> 00:34:39,360 shares. And so I think that is very 589 00:34:39,360 --> 00:34:40,560 indicative of what you were saying. 590 00:34:40,560 --> 00:34:44,000 This is going to be a sort of mass consumer event of course 591 00:34:44,400 --> 00:34:47,600 and but also a big market event. But you know because of must 592 00:34:47,600 --> 00:34:51,239 celebrity and the kind of public facing nature of him and his 593 00:34:51,239 --> 00:34:54,320 companies, this is going to be more than just you know another 594 00:34:54,320 --> 00:34:57,240 big M&A. Would you compare it hellier to 595 00:34:57,240 --> 00:35:00,840 sort of the early 2000s when we we saw some of the big tech 596 00:35:00,840 --> 00:35:03,720 companies go public then? Well, I mean, we, we are 597 00:35:03,720 --> 00:35:09,000 definitely in a bubble, which is what you're alluding to. 598 00:35:09,360 --> 00:35:14,520 I think the the question here is, you know, it's always you 599 00:35:14,520 --> 00:35:18,320 get that same kind of comparison, which is, you know, 600 00:35:18,320 --> 00:35:20,640 can you be in a bubble and can the bubble burst? 601 00:35:20,640 --> 00:35:27,320 But still the technology is transformative and the survivors 602 00:35:27,360 --> 00:35:31,920 of that burst bubble make such significant gains that everyone 603 00:35:31,920 --> 00:35:36,000 needs to be invested. And I think that is the problem 604 00:35:36,000 --> 00:35:40,200 we have at the moment is that even though you've had all of 605 00:35:40,200 --> 00:35:44,720 the all of the chief executives and founders from these AI 606 00:35:44,720 --> 00:35:49,040 companies all concede themselves that there is an AI bubble. 607 00:35:49,440 --> 00:35:52,880 You are still having money flowing into this this sector. 608 00:35:53,160 --> 00:35:56,600 You are still having both VC money flowing and you're still 609 00:35:56,600 --> 00:36:00,800 having the idea of these mega IPOs. 610 00:36:00,800 --> 00:36:05,800 I mean, to raise $30 billion.50 billion dollars on the stock 611 00:36:05,800 --> 00:36:08,720 market is a huge quantum of money. 612 00:36:08,720 --> 00:36:12,240 I think the next biggest was Saudi Aramco on something like 613 00:36:12,240 --> 00:36:15,120 $29 billion. And by the way, they were quite 614 00:36:15,120 --> 00:36:18,040 a simple company. They had, you know, oil revenue 615 00:36:18,360 --> 00:36:20,760 and you could see that. So investors knew what they were 616 00:36:20,760 --> 00:36:25,120 buying into here year. I think it's about when does as 617 00:36:25,120 --> 00:36:27,440 Jacob was saying, when does the music stop? 618 00:36:27,440 --> 00:36:33,560 Do they get to IPO before there is some real market volatility? 619 00:36:33,560 --> 00:36:37,320 Because that changes the the the equation completely are? 620 00:36:37,800 --> 00:36:40,200 You in the predictions game, Jacob, do you like? 621 00:36:40,240 --> 00:36:44,600 Do you like the prediction? Only as a as a hobby I guess 622 00:36:44,600 --> 00:36:47,840 it's not one of monetized yet on these new prediction markets I. 623 00:36:48,680 --> 00:36:50,440 Was going to ask you when the music is going to stop. 624 00:36:51,040 --> 00:36:56,800 You know, I, I've been, I'm a skeptic and I guess I've been 625 00:36:56,800 --> 00:36:59,640 wondering that about Musk. I mean, I think some of his 626 00:36:59,640 --> 00:37:02,040 based on his own personal behavior, I mean, he has been, 627 00:37:02,160 --> 00:37:05,600 of course, more erratic and can he sort of maintain some of the 628 00:37:05,600 --> 00:37:10,160 alliances and, and the veneer at least of legitimacy that he 629 00:37:10,160 --> 00:37:12,400 needs? But I think we'll probably get 630 00:37:12,400 --> 00:37:15,520 to some kind of public offering this summer and see where we 631 00:37:15,520 --> 00:37:18,120 might proceed from there. But, you know, in the next few 632 00:37:18,120 --> 00:37:20,840 years, some of his fantastical predictions will finally have to 633 00:37:20,960 --> 00:37:24,280 come true and start returning revenue, and I think that's when 634 00:37:24,280 --> 00:37:27,000 the music does stop. Jacob Silverman, author of 635 00:37:27,000 --> 00:37:30,280 Gilded Rage, Elon Musk and the Radicalisation of Silicon 636 00:37:30,280 --> 00:37:31,520 Valley. That was really interesting. 637 00:37:31,520 --> 00:37:33,400 Thank you so much. I'm Helia Ebrahimi, our 638 00:37:33,680 --> 00:37:36,280 economics correspondent here at Channel 4 News as well. 639 00:37:36,640 --> 00:37:38,080 You've been listening to the forecast. 640 00:37:38,360 --> 00:37:39,120 See you again soon.