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Like yesterday was it was box 
office. 

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Like in Westminster terms this 
was box office, But if this was 

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a divorce, this is basically 
like a posh episode of 

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EastEnders. 
Who's the one group of people 

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that Nigel Farage does not 
particularly like having in his 

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parties? 
Ambitious people. 

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And you even saw in the press 
conference he was giving those 

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nervous little Robert, don't you
dare do anything. 

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The rule seems to be that you 
the one thing you can't do is is

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question Nigel or challenge 
Nigel because he will then come 

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back and and and finish you off.
Hello and welcome to the 

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forecast. 
It has been quite the week in 

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Westminster. 
A sacking, A defection and a 

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deepening crisis on the right. 
Robert Genrick's move to Reform 

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has capped off a dramatic few 
days for the Conservatives. 

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While Nigel Farage has 
celebrated the moment, calling 

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it a historic realignment of 
centre right politics in the 

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United Kingdom, the Prime 
Minister has described the 

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Conservative Party as a sinking 
ship. 

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Genrick himself has said his 
defection will unite the right. 

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So what does this mean for the 
future of the Conservatives? 

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And what does Genrick's 
defection mean for Reform? 

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Is there a real possibility that
Reform could win the next 

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election? 
Here to unpack the latest of the

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deputy editor of Conservative 
Home, Henry Hill, and our senior

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political correspondent, Paul 
McNamara. 

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Thanks very much, both of you, 
for for joining me, Paul. 

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First, the party line from the 
Tory leadership seems to be 

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we're better off without him. 
You know, like when you're a 

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teenager and you're dumped. 
I didn't want to go out with you

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anyway. 
Are they right? 

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I mean, God love them, they are 
putting on a good spin. 

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But in if this was a divorce, 
this is basically like a posh 

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episode of EastEnders. 
Kimmy's kicked out Bobby Chris, 

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he's found out he's having an 
affair with No, he's bloody 

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hell. 
They've turned up to the Queen 

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Victoria and now they're shaking
up together and he's slagging 

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off everyone in her family. 
And he never really loved her 

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anyway. 
This is like yesterday was it 

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was box office. 
Like in Westminster terms, this 

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was box office and the start of 
the day was a desperate bid from

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everyone to try and get up on 
top of the of the headlines. 

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And Kemi did like she did a a 
great job. 

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I don't know what you're 
experiencing from everyone that 

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you were talking to the 
Conservatives, but it didn't 

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actually play the blinder first,
first thing in the morning. 

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But did it look like that later 
on? 

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That's the question, I suppose. 
I mean, I, I, I think that, 

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yeah, broadly speaking, Kemi 
Begnock has strengthened her 

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position in the party partly 
because her main rival has left 

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it, but also because she played 
yesterday broadly very well. 

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She acted decisively. 
If the if the defection was 

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going to happen, then it's she 
has minimised the damage. 

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She took the wind out of their 
sails. 

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If there was any chance of 
anyone following Robert, that 

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seems less likely now. 
But I do think I'd be interested

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to see what would happen if a 
politician tried just admitting 

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that something wasn't great and 
that they were sad that it. 

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Happened. 
Stayed in their party. 

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Well, well, no. 
Or, or if somebody left 

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admitting that they were a loss,
right? 

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Because frankly, if if you're if
you're Kimmy Babenok and you 

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have such a low opinion of 
Robert Denrick, why was he your 

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shadow justice secretary, right?
Like he was indisputably 1. 

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The most popular shadow cabinet 
member with the grass roots 2 

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really an influence on her own 
policy thinking since she has 

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adopted his policy on the 
European Convention on Human 

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Rights. 
And three, one of the few 

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members of the shadow cabinet 
who've had any luck getting into

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the media in a very unpromising 
media environment for the 

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Conservatives. 
Now if he was planning to 

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defect, you can still be like 
well you know better. 

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It were done quickly and all the
rest of it, whilst acknowledging

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that having a senior member of 
your shadow front bench leave 

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the party to go and join what is
in parliamentary terms, a much 

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smaller party is a bad thing. 
But that's not how this really 

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works. 
Everyone has to immediately, the

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moment somebody leaves me like, 
well, I never liked them anyway.

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And and we're all just supposed 
to ignore the fact that they 

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have promoted them and given 
them senior positions and all 

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the rest of. 
It, I mean, it's a similar, 

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sorry, it's a similar argument, 
isn't it, that they are putting 

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to Genrick, Robert Genrick that 
if you were so unhappy, you 

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know, he's, he was brutal and 
named colleagues in his speech. 

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If you were so unhappy, why 
don't you stay in and tell us? 

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Well, so I, I think my suspicion
there is that actually, and this

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is a bad thing for British 
politics in general and it 

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doesn't just apply to the 
Conservative Party, is that 

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there really isn't, if ever 
there was space in political 

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parties for that to happen. 
Because especially if you look 

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at the way that Kimmy Bade not 
ran the leadership, and this is 

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very specific, but she ran as 
the unity candidate, right? 

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And then she populated her 
shadow cabinet with lots of 

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people who were previously in 
the cabinet from various wings 

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of the party. 
That makes having a full and 

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frank interrogation of what went
wrong over the past 14 years 

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very difficult. 
If you're overriding priority is

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not to alienate or embarrass 
anybody. 

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And I think that the rise of of 
social media and and the media's

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appetite for and and expectation
of information also doesn't 

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help. 
I remember during the Tory 

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leadership contest, I can't 
remember which show it was on, 

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but the host said to me, you 
know, we watched some clip or 

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other and said, yeah, isn't the 
Conservative Party talking to 

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itself? 
And my response was, is having a

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leadership contest, to whom 
should it be speaking? 

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All right, this is when it's 
supposed to be working out what 

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it says to everyone else. 
But everything was being 

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examined through that external 
lens. 

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And I think that it's 
unfortunate that a lot of what 

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Robert Jenrick said in his 
criticisms of the Conservative 

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Party, there's a lot of truth to
it, but he clearly felt that he 

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couldn't. 
There wasn't an adequate forum 

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for that inside the party. 
But there's what you say and 

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there's how you say it, right? 
I mean, you can think all that 

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and you can have a, a view that 
the party hasn't got it wrong. 

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A lot of people in the 
Conservative Party think exactly

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the same. 
But then they're thinking that 

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and they're saying it and then 
they're saying it in an absolute

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drive by and chucking grenades 
left, right and centre and 

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kicking the dog on the on the 
way out. 

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Which is, I mean, that press 
conference was it, it was, it 

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was quite something. 
There was no holding back there.

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That wasn't just I'm done with 
you, you guys have got it wrong 

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and I move it on. 
I mean, Danny Kruger left. 

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He's done it in a far more 
reserved fashion. 

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Robert Generate left and it was,
I mean, it wasn't in the manner 

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in which he wanted to. 
Like there was a choreography 

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there that he wanted and he gets
found out and it doesn't happen 

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like that. 
He was setting fire to the house

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on the way out last night. 
I think that both Kemi and 

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Robert could have benefited from
being a little bit more like 

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Danny. 
What did? 

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You What did you think of Kemi's
video? 

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The the one the. 
One in the morning when yeah 

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well, I I and a couple of other 
journalists I spoke to because 

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of the blurred background and 
the fact that it wasn't 

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professionally. 
My first thought was is this 

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real yeah, AI right I was just 
like I just want to check is 

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this actually happening yeah and
it. 

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And then it turned out that it 
was. 

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And I think that clearly, 
because the Conservative Party 

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does have access to production, 
right? 

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It does have a proper camera and
a set up and a set for her doing

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things. 
And so I think the fact that 

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that was how it was delivered 
suggests that if this smoking 

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gun came to light, it probably 
came to light quite quickly. 

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Yeah. 
And they. 

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It's like it. 
Was done at home. 

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Wasn't it? 
Yeah. 

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And they really felt that they 
had to, you know, get it is a 

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little bit like, you know, that 
that clip, that that video from 

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President Erdogan during that 
coup in Turkey when he was 

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filming from the plane, there 
was a real sense of like, right,

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we've got to get on this as 
quickly as possible. 

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And in fairness, it did work. 
And I suspect that even if he 

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hadn't been planning on doing it
before, one of the reasons that 

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Jenrick was so vociferous in the
press conference is because he 

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and Nigel Farage needed some way
to try and claw back some of the

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points for the day. 
When despite the fact, you know,

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it's remarkable and that despite
the fact that the loss of Robert

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Jenrick and the loss of a member
of the judder cabinet is 

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objectively a very bad thing for
the Tory Party. 

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The general consensus is that 
Kenny Bade not won defection day

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because of how she because of 
how she managed it and and, and 

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she did manage it very well. 
So I think that's why they were 

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pressing back. 
One, the thing that, you know, 

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people in Reform were saying 
last night was, OK, yeah, she's 

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done all right here, but the 
front pages tomorrow are all 

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going to say that very senior 
Tories left to defect to Reform.

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And lo and behold, every single 
one of the front pages is Robert

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James left and he's gone to 
Reform. 

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It's not. 
Didn't Kenny do really well out 

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of this? 
She did well and it's gone down.

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How she performed yesterday and 
how she bought by the horns has 

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gone down well with some 
Conservative members, some 

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councillors, a lot of her MPs, 
but ultimately the big story. 

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But what about the fundamental 
issues you say? 

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It was utterly damning about the
Tories, wasn't it? 

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It was saying, you know, Britain
is broken, broken and you've 

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broken it. 
I mean, slightly ignoring how 

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long he's been within the party 
itself, how damaging is that and

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how many people who remain in 
the Tory party will be thinking 

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he's got a point here? 
Well it's a 2 edged sword 

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because I, you know, there is a 
clear danger for Nigel Farage 

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and being like the Tories cannot
be trusted. 

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And if you don't believe me, ask
any of the Conservative cabinet 

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00:08:32,159 --> 00:08:34,159
ministers that I've been pleased
to welcome into my parliamentary

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party. 
But again, the danger that it is

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00:08:39,080 --> 00:08:41,559
so dangerous to the Tory party 
because there is a lot of truth 

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00:08:41,559 --> 00:08:43,760
to it. 
And one of the people who 

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00:08:43,760 --> 00:08:46,160
acknowledged that historically 
was Kemi Batnock. 

193
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During her leadership campaign. 
She didn't have any specific 

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00:08:49,880 --> 00:08:51,640
proposals. 
In fact, that was one of the 

195
00:08:51,640 --> 00:08:53,280
dividing lines to do between her
and Robert Jenrick. 

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00:08:53,440 --> 00:08:55,360
But if you go back and you look 
at Kemi Batnock's leadership 

197
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campaign, she is saying, why did
we talk right and govern left? 

198
00:08:59,080 --> 00:09:01,720
You know, we need a really deep 
interrogation into what went 

199
00:09:01,720 --> 00:09:03,120
wrong. 
I'm an engineer and I know how 

200
00:09:03,120 --> 00:09:06,040
to do that. 
And then it didn't happen and it

201
00:09:06,040 --> 00:09:08,920
still hasn't happened. 
And you know, when Priti Patel 

202
00:09:08,920 --> 00:09:12,360
went out on, on, on the media 
and asked to be thanked for the 

203
00:09:12,360 --> 00:09:14,960
Boris wave. 
And you know, there's like, 

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00:09:14,960 --> 00:09:18,120
well, OK, if you're going to be,
if you think that the level that

205
00:09:18,120 --> 00:09:20,320
immigration got to under the 
Conservative Party is a problem 

206
00:09:20,400 --> 00:09:22,840
that you need to fix, having 
somebody in your shadow cabinet 

207
00:09:22,840 --> 00:09:24,640
who thinks it's something that's
praiseworthy is probably 

208
00:09:24,640 --> 00:09:26,960
something you should fix. 
Again, nothing happened because 

209
00:09:26,960 --> 00:09:30,920
of that imperative of unity. 
So it it is a very difficult 

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00:09:30,920 --> 00:09:34,000
thing for Kemi to do now because
she didn't get a mandate for any

211
00:09:34,000 --> 00:09:36,240
of these big changes in her in 
her leadership pitch. 

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00:09:36,560 --> 00:09:39,640
So so where did the strategist 
go now, given what happened 

213
00:09:39,640 --> 00:09:41,560
yesterday? 
Because you've got this slight 

214
00:09:41,720 --> 00:09:45,480
contradiction that Kemi Bednock 
has started to do better, that 

215
00:09:46,600 --> 00:09:49,960
it's widely being said that she 
did well yesterday, and yet you 

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00:09:49,960 --> 00:09:52,720
have all of these problems 
identified by Robert Jenrick 

217
00:09:52,720 --> 00:09:55,560
with potentially many people 
within the party agreeing with 

218
00:09:55,560 --> 00:09:55,880
him. 
I. 

219
00:09:55,880 --> 00:09:58,680
Think the strategist is still 
trying to figure this one out? 

220
00:09:59,040 --> 00:10:01,520
Emy's complete right? 
One of the problems that the 

221
00:10:01,520 --> 00:10:04,840
Tories have got now is that if 
you ask most people in the 

222
00:10:04,840 --> 00:10:09,640
street to name anyone on the 
Tory front bench, I don't think 

223
00:10:09,640 --> 00:10:12,000
they're coming up with a 
particularly long list for you. 

224
00:10:12,000 --> 00:10:14,840
There aren't many people in the 
three front benches that have 

225
00:10:14,840 --> 00:10:18,200
name recognition that that are 
proven media performers that can

226
00:10:18,200 --> 00:10:19,640
get out there, that can sell 
their message. 

227
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Robert Genrick was doing that. 
Whether you agree with him or 

228
00:10:22,720 --> 00:10:24,960
disagree with him, he was 
someone who was doing that, 

229
00:10:25,160 --> 00:10:27,640
doing that messaging for the 
Conservative Party. 

230
00:10:28,000 --> 00:10:31,200
One of the things that the 
Tories have already started 

231
00:10:31,200 --> 00:10:34,720
saying and Labour and Lib Dems 
have already started pointing 

232
00:10:34,720 --> 00:10:36,920
at, start pointing at Reformers 
saying oh look, it's either 

233
00:10:38,120 --> 00:10:41,280
Tories 2 point O or it's the 
Tory B team. 

234
00:10:41,280 --> 00:10:44,800
I think what a lot of people 
they are set within the 

235
00:10:44,800 --> 00:10:48,800
Westminster bubble sort of 
forget is that most people are 

236
00:10:48,800 --> 00:10:52,000
not us and are not looking at 
the news day in day out. 

237
00:10:52,080 --> 00:10:56,160
Most people are getting on with 
trying to pay their bills and 

238
00:10:56,200 --> 00:10:58,880
they're not looking at the 
psychodrama of all of these 

239
00:10:58,880 --> 00:11:00,400
things. 
It matters a lot to all of us. 

240
00:11:00,400 --> 00:11:02,880
It matters a lot to Tory party 
members and people who write 

241
00:11:02,880 --> 00:11:05,560
their campaign day in day out. 
Most people don't engage with 

242
00:11:05,560 --> 00:11:08,520
politics until the six months 
before an election. 

243
00:11:08,720 --> 00:11:11,560
So all this that goes on and you
say, oh, look, they've got 

244
00:11:12,360 --> 00:11:16,080
Jonathan Gullis now and they've 
got Marco Longy's. 

245
00:11:16,280 --> 00:11:18,680
You know, no one knows who many 
of these people are. 

246
00:11:18,680 --> 00:11:21,320
So as much as you say, oh, it's,
it's all the Tories. 

247
00:11:21,600 --> 00:11:23,600
If it's Tories that you don't 
know and you haven't really 

248
00:11:23,600 --> 00:11:25,680
heard of and you haven't engaged
with since the last election 

249
00:11:25,680 --> 00:11:28,680
five years ago and you've 
forgotten about, it's still 

250
00:11:28,680 --> 00:11:30,400
really the party of Nigel 
Farage. 

251
00:11:30,600 --> 00:11:32,680
And as long as he's getting out 
there and doing really well on 

252
00:11:32,680 --> 00:11:35,480
the on the messing, that's 
really what is cementing itself 

253
00:11:35,480 --> 00:11:38,160
in in people's minds. 
I mean, I, I think that's true 

254
00:11:38,160 --> 00:11:40,040
of a lot of them. 
I think that, for example, that 

255
00:11:40,040 --> 00:11:44,240
it was a highway quite I, I, I 
was added an event with 

256
00:11:44,240 --> 00:11:47,400
relatives who aren't 
particularly political and what 

257
00:11:47,400 --> 00:11:49,520
they were saying on the day of 
that defection was, was he the 

258
00:11:49,520 --> 00:11:52,320
tax evasion guy? 
So I think that there are which.

259
00:11:52,320 --> 00:11:54,160
May not be the recognition he. 
Wants which may not be the, 

260
00:11:54,280 --> 00:11:56,640
which may not be the recognition
he wants, but but there's more 

261
00:11:56,640 --> 00:12:00,120
than just optics, I think to 
this, which is that reform might

262
00:12:00,120 --> 00:12:02,520
actually end up governing the 
country potentially or in a 

263
00:12:02,520 --> 00:12:06,520
position to govern the country. 
To do that it needs hundreds of 

264
00:12:06,520 --> 00:12:09,120
people who are capable of being 
ministers, It needs hundreds of 

265
00:12:09,120 --> 00:12:11,520
people who are capable of being 
at least possibly good MPs. 

266
00:12:11,520 --> 00:12:14,200
I'm not going to say very good 
MPs because, you know, none of 

267
00:12:14,200 --> 00:12:16,520
the parties have a generally 
amazing threshold on that at the

268
00:12:16,520 --> 00:12:18,440
minute. 
And it needs people to 

269
00:12:18,520 --> 00:12:22,080
presumably lead quangos, it 
needs people to lead regulators 

270
00:12:22,440 --> 00:12:24,480
and there. 
Is to write laws. 

271
00:12:24,720 --> 00:12:27,880
Exactly where The Who are the 
law officers going to be in a in

272
00:12:27,880 --> 00:12:30,440
a reform government? 
So actually I think one of the 

273
00:12:30,440 --> 00:12:33,240
biggest structural challenges 
facing reform is the personnel 

274
00:12:33,240 --> 00:12:36,000
problem. 
There should be space in reform 

275
00:12:36,120 --> 00:12:39,600
for hundreds of Robert Jenricks 
or people like him. 

276
00:12:39,840 --> 00:12:44,160
But the the challenge has always
been that, you know, generally 

277
00:12:44,160 --> 00:12:46,280
speaking, if you're a very able 
person, going into politics 

278
00:12:46,280 --> 00:12:48,240
involves making some big 
sacrifices, at least in the 

279
00:12:48,240 --> 00:12:50,440
short to medium term. 
So who are the people who make 

280
00:12:50,440 --> 00:12:52,120
those sacrifices? 
Well, they tend to be ambitious 

281
00:12:52,120 --> 00:12:54,120
people. 
Who's the one group of people 

282
00:12:54,120 --> 00:12:56,320
that Nigel Farage does not 
particularly like having in his 

283
00:12:56,320 --> 00:12:57,760
parties? 
Ambitious people. 

284
00:12:58,040 --> 00:13:00,000
And you even saw in the press 
conference he was giving those 

285
00:13:00,000 --> 00:13:03,160
nervous little Robert, don't you
dare do anything. 

286
00:13:03,160 --> 00:13:06,400
It's like if that's what you're 
doing on day one at the press 

287
00:13:06,400 --> 00:13:09,560
conference where you unveil this
person, that suggests that this 

288
00:13:09,560 --> 00:13:10,600
is a really quite deep 
structure. 

289
00:13:10,600 --> 00:13:13,760
So he may not be a shoe in for a
reform chancellor Post I Mr. 

290
00:13:13,760 --> 00:13:16,280
Degenerate we've got we've got, 
I mean, they've got absolutely 

291
00:13:16,280 --> 00:13:18,680
no idea. 
But generally speaking, the rule

292
00:13:18,680 --> 00:13:21,760
seems to be that you the one 
thing you can't do is is 

293
00:13:21,760 --> 00:13:24,640
question Nigel or challenge 
Nigel or over shadow Nigel or 

294
00:13:24,640 --> 00:13:27,840
even on at least one memorable 
occasion, succeed him by 

295
00:13:27,840 --> 00:13:30,600
agreement because he will then 
come back and and and finish you

296
00:13:30,600 --> 00:13:33,600
off. 
So to the extent to it. 

297
00:13:33,920 --> 00:13:36,440
Interestingly, Robert represents
the 1/3 of the Reform 

298
00:13:36,640 --> 00:13:38,560
parliamentary party that were 
ministers in Rishi Sunak's 

299
00:13:38,560 --> 00:13:41,000
government. 
But no, I don't. 

300
00:13:41,000 --> 00:13:43,280
It will be interesting to see 
how Farage handles him. 

301
00:13:43,280 --> 00:13:45,920
Because if Farage can't 
accommodate 1 Robert Jenrick, he

302
00:13:45,920 --> 00:13:47,800
has no prospects of 
accommodating enough talented 

303
00:13:47,800 --> 00:13:50,080
people to make. 
As you say that he needs more 

304
00:13:50,080 --> 00:13:51,440
Robert Jenricks. 
He means more. 

305
00:13:51,440 --> 00:13:53,080
He needs more Robert. 
Not necessary from the Tories, 

306
00:13:53,080 --> 00:13:56,160
but just in general. 
But but the but Tory defections 

307
00:13:56,160 --> 00:13:59,280
specifically, it is a double 
edged sword, isn't it? 

308
00:13:59,280 --> 00:14:03,480
Because you start to look as you
say, like Tory Party 2.0 or a 

309
00:14:03,480 --> 00:14:06,840
sort of Poundland Tory party. 
But at the same time, you need 

310
00:14:06,840 --> 00:14:10,440
that experience and you need 
people to come across, surely. 

311
00:14:10,480 --> 00:14:12,520
You do. 
I almost wonder that. 

312
00:14:13,080 --> 00:14:16,840
So whenever anyone talks about 
defections, about how this is 

313
00:14:16,840 --> 00:14:19,960
going to go down, everyone talks
about MPs and what's happening 

314
00:14:19,960 --> 00:14:22,200
in Parliament, who's going to be
the next person to to walk the 

315
00:14:22,200 --> 00:14:24,880
floor? 
And everyone talks about voters 

316
00:14:24,960 --> 00:14:27,920
when it comes to an election and
who they're going to vote for. 

317
00:14:28,200 --> 00:14:31,200
But what always gets missed is 
the bit in the middle. 

318
00:14:31,440 --> 00:14:36,440
And this is like your grassroots
membership and parties live and 

319
00:14:36,440 --> 00:14:39,640
die by their membership because 
as much as you can have someone 

320
00:14:39,640 --> 00:14:42,440
being a media performer and 
doing great and it comes through

321
00:14:42,440 --> 00:14:44,200
an election, when it comes 
through a local election, any 

322
00:14:44,200 --> 00:14:49,240
election, you need people who 
are willing to walk the pavement

323
00:14:49,240 --> 00:14:53,000
for you and knock on doors. 
And the real detrimental effect 

324
00:14:53,040 --> 00:14:55,440
I think here, and this is the 
thing that's worrying people, 

325
00:14:55,760 --> 00:14:58,760
isn't necessarily in peace, but 
it's memberships, it's 

326
00:14:58,760 --> 00:15:03,840
counsellors, it's OK. 
Well, maybe you're not going to 

327
00:15:03,840 --> 00:15:08,800
have a whole lot of Tory members
who go and join Reform, but are 

328
00:15:08,800 --> 00:15:12,040
they going to turn up on a rainy
Tuesday night to go and a knock 

329
00:15:12,040 --> 00:15:14,840
on a door for you? 
And if they don't, well, your 

330
00:15:14,960 --> 00:15:16,960
vote's going to, your vote share
is going to go down. 

331
00:15:17,080 --> 00:15:19,000
If they don't do it in the local
elections, are they going to do 

332
00:15:19,000 --> 00:15:22,560
it come the general election for
your MP and all of a sudden you 

333
00:15:22,560 --> 00:15:25,960
get this degradation in support 
and it's very hard to win any 

334
00:15:25,960 --> 00:15:28,280
election when you don't have 
those grassroots numbers. 

335
00:15:28,560 --> 00:15:32,120
So when you look more broadly at
the sort of, you know, Nigel 

336
00:15:32,120 --> 00:15:36,080
Farage talks it about, you know,
realigning the right of British 

337
00:15:36,080 --> 00:15:38,000
politics, where has that been 
left? 

338
00:15:38,880 --> 00:15:42,760
So the spectre that's haunting 
the right is the spectre of 

339
00:15:42,760 --> 00:15:47,360
Canada after 1992. 
So in 1992 the the Canadian 

340
00:15:47,360 --> 00:15:49,800
right split actually on much the
same lines that we have. 

341
00:15:50,840 --> 00:15:54,000
The other party was even called 
Reform and the Progressive 

342
00:15:54,000 --> 00:15:56,560
Conservatives, which were the 
big Tory party in Canada, went 

343
00:15:56,560 --> 00:15:59,600
down to two seats. 
And even though they went down 

344
00:15:59,600 --> 00:16:03,080
to two seats, it still took a 
decade for those parties to 

345
00:16:03,080 --> 00:16:06,160
unite into the Conservative 
Party of Canada, after which 

346
00:16:06,160 --> 00:16:08,600
point they won. 
But for that decade the Liberals

347
00:16:08,600 --> 00:16:11,240
had some very, very easy 
election victories because 

348
00:16:11,240 --> 00:16:14,160
despite the fact that you had 
two fairly sizeable right wing 

349
00:16:14,160 --> 00:16:16,400
parties, each of which got a 
respectable vote, they hated 

350
00:16:16,400 --> 00:16:18,960
each other and therefore there 
was no prospect of forming a 

351
00:16:18,960 --> 00:16:21,400
government. 
And I think that that is 

352
00:16:21,400 --> 00:16:24,600
something which both sides are 
very aware of. 

353
00:16:25,000 --> 00:16:27,720
But the difficulty of it is that
actually there is quite a lot of

354
00:16:27,720 --> 00:16:29,800
bad blood, especially at the 
senior level between Reform and 

355
00:16:29,800 --> 00:16:32,080
the Tories. 
But also neither of them have 

356
00:16:32,080 --> 00:16:34,480
policy programs yet. 
So they've got nothing to build 

357
00:16:34,480 --> 00:16:37,200
a coalition around. 
And that's why I think we keep 

358
00:16:37,200 --> 00:16:39,640
seeing their differences 
emphasized because until they 

359
00:16:39,640 --> 00:16:43,560
have discrete things that they 
stand for, the only thing to 

360
00:16:43,560 --> 00:16:45,360
talk about to their divisions, 
because otherwise there's no 

361
00:16:45,360 --> 00:16:49,040
point having two of them. 
So does the right in this big 

362
00:16:49,040 --> 00:16:55,040
mass rely on Labour continuing 
to U-turn, to make mistakes, to 

363
00:16:55,040 --> 00:16:56,040
look weak? 
Today. 

364
00:16:56,040 --> 00:16:59,280
I was thinking this yesterday. 
Remember there was that thing a 

365
00:16:59,280 --> 00:17:02,960
couple of months ago where some 
people would make the point that

366
00:17:03,200 --> 00:17:07,520
Keir Starmer has the reverse 
Midas touch, where everything he

367
00:17:07,640 --> 00:17:10,839
touches turns to something not 
great. 

368
00:17:10,839 --> 00:17:12,160
Keep it clean. 
Keep it clean. 

369
00:17:12,880 --> 00:17:15,560
I've seen this yesterday. 
We started the day yesterday. 

370
00:17:16,359 --> 00:17:21,040
The new story yesterday was that
Elon Musk was all of a sudden 

371
00:17:21,240 --> 00:17:26,280
making big changes to Grokken. 
This was a a win for Downing 

372
00:17:26,280 --> 00:17:27,880
Street. 
I was interviewing West of the 

373
00:17:27,880 --> 00:17:30,000
street yesterday morning and he 
was like absolutely, Prime 

374
00:17:30,400 --> 00:17:31,920
minister's played a blind on 
this one. 

375
00:17:32,120 --> 00:17:35,160
This is a win for Downing Street
where where, you know, no one 

376
00:17:35,160 --> 00:17:37,200
has taken it to Elon Musk like 
we have. 

377
00:17:37,360 --> 00:17:40,200
Elon Musk wasn't being verbose 
like he like he normally is. 

378
00:17:40,800 --> 00:17:43,200
Two hours later, no one is 
talking about that story. 

379
00:17:43,200 --> 00:17:44,880
Got zero coverage yesterday 
evening. 

380
00:17:45,120 --> 00:17:50,040
Keir Stammer couldn't even get a
day's worth of news cycle out of

381
00:17:50,160 --> 00:17:53,840
that one good story, because all
of a sudden events turn against 

382
00:17:53,840 --> 00:17:58,920
him and the whole of the top end
of most news programs and the 

383
00:17:58,920 --> 00:18:01,720
front pages of every single 
newspaper was this story. 

384
00:18:01,720 --> 00:18:03,200
It was the conservative. 
It was reform. 

385
00:18:03,600 --> 00:18:06,200
And an interesting thing about 
reform because for 

386
00:18:06,240 --> 00:18:09,040
understandable reasons people 
tend to to treat reform in the 

387
00:18:09,040 --> 00:18:11,320
Tories as the two right wing 
parties and focus on the 

388
00:18:11,320 --> 00:18:14,160
internal dynamics of the right. 
But actually, if you look at 

389
00:18:14,160 --> 00:18:17,560
Reform, they came second in 98 
seats in the general election, 

390
00:18:17,680 --> 00:18:20,280
of which 89 are held by Labour, 
right? 

391
00:18:20,440 --> 00:18:22,960
Labour is also the party in 
government making lots of 

392
00:18:22,960 --> 00:18:25,360
unpopular decisions. 
And even the seats that Reform 

393
00:18:25,360 --> 00:18:30,080
UK already has have actually 
sort of a much bigger level of 

394
00:18:30,080 --> 00:18:31,960
sort of government spending. 
And if you look at Reform, the 

395
00:18:31,960 --> 00:18:34,880
voters, they don't tend to be 
small state, low tax. 

396
00:18:34,880 --> 00:18:37,360
They're socially conservative, 
hardline on law and order, but 

397
00:18:37,360 --> 00:18:38,920
generally quite in favour of 
public spending. 

398
00:18:39,400 --> 00:18:42,040
One, it's going to be quite 
interesting to see how reforms 

399
00:18:42,280 --> 00:18:45,240
senior leadership, all of whom 
are committed Thatcherites, 

400
00:18:45,560 --> 00:18:47,440
adapt to that. 
We've already seen Nigel Farage,

401
00:18:47,440 --> 00:18:50,800
for example, flip on the two 
child welfare limit, but two 

402
00:18:51,040 --> 00:18:53,800
that suggests that actually at 
the next election, not 

403
00:18:53,800 --> 00:18:56,240
necessarily at all future 
elections, the Tories and Reform

404
00:18:56,240 --> 00:18:59,720
might not be each other's 
primary target necessarily 

405
00:18:59,720 --> 00:19:02,840
because there's quite a few 
seats in the South, the and the 

406
00:19:02,840 --> 00:19:05,600
east and bits of the Midlands 
where Labour won because the 

407
00:19:05,600 --> 00:19:08,440
Tories went almost extinct. 
And you've got nervous Labour 

408
00:19:08,440 --> 00:19:10,360
MPs with many narrow majorities 
which the Tories could 

409
00:19:10,360 --> 00:19:13,040
potentially take back. 
And Reform have a very, very 

410
00:19:13,040 --> 00:19:15,840
different map of where their 
primary attack seats are. 

411
00:19:16,080 --> 00:19:18,240
So there will be some places, 
and you were talking about 

412
00:19:18,240 --> 00:19:20,560
earlier about grassroots 
activists, most as important as 

413
00:19:20,560 --> 00:19:23,680
councillors because actually 
party memberships have drindled 

414
00:19:23,680 --> 00:19:26,560
to almost nothing and there are 
now some very nervous Tory MPs 

415
00:19:26,560 --> 00:19:28,800
in former heartland counties 
where there are more MPs than 

416
00:19:28,800 --> 00:19:32,120
councillors after last year. 
So that will be a a 

417
00:19:32,280 --> 00:19:34,360
battleground. 
But actually I think that 

418
00:19:34,360 --> 00:19:38,600
focusing purely on the idea of a
Tory reform battle ignores the 

419
00:19:38,600 --> 00:19:41,360
fact that both of them, their 
best prospects for growth in the

420
00:19:41,360 --> 00:19:42,800
next election, are taking chunks
out of Labour. 

421
00:19:42,960 --> 00:19:45,080
And Nigel Farage yesterday 
saying next week he'll be 

422
00:19:45,080 --> 00:19:47,960
announcing A Labour defection. 
Yeah. 

423
00:19:48,280 --> 00:19:50,400
I don't know whether that was a 
joke or not initially. 

424
00:19:50,560 --> 00:19:54,600
No, and there's some movies 
about who that person is. 

425
00:19:55,560 --> 00:19:57,080
If we paid you money, would you 
tell us? 

426
00:19:57,640 --> 00:19:59,160
Pay me money, Jackie, I'll tell 
you anything. 

427
00:19:59,480 --> 00:20:05,680
Like Nigel Farage. 
Is the master at garnering 

428
00:20:05,680 --> 00:20:09,560
headlines, and he's been. 
He's been amazing over the last 

429
00:20:09,560 --> 00:20:12,600
six months about when nothing 
has been going on. 

430
00:20:12,720 --> 00:20:16,440
He's been able to Jack up an 
event where the cameras turned 

431
00:20:16,440 --> 00:20:17,840
up. 
He's been able to say something,

432
00:20:17,840 --> 00:20:22,240
do something and make it happen 
so that he dominates the 

433
00:20:22,240 --> 00:20:24,320
airwaves. 
Now that didn't quite happen in 

434
00:20:24,320 --> 00:20:27,720
the sequencing which he wanted 
to happen with Robert Germet, 

435
00:20:27,720 --> 00:20:31,960
but by Christ, they, they did it
yesterday. 

436
00:20:34,160 --> 00:20:39,680
On that point of Tories and and 
Reform at war with each other. 

437
00:20:39,840 --> 00:20:43,240
It's quite funny talking to 
senior people in, in Reform then

438
00:20:43,240 --> 00:20:45,880
I, no, we're, we're, we're just 
taking them over. 

439
00:20:45,880 --> 00:20:47,120
We're, we're, we're not even 
taking them over. 

440
00:20:47,120 --> 00:20:48,240
We're just, we're just replacing
them. 

441
00:20:48,360 --> 00:20:50,440
That's it. 
It's almost like the Liberals 

442
00:20:50,440 --> 00:20:52,120
in, in, in the early 20th 
century. 

443
00:20:52,120 --> 00:20:53,600
It's like, no, the Tories are 
dead. 

444
00:20:53,600 --> 00:20:55,960
We're just taking them over. 
Well, some people come, you 

445
00:20:55,960 --> 00:20:58,000
know, come over to us. 
They need to come to us now 

446
00:20:58,000 --> 00:21:00,600
before the end of the first week
of May. 

447
00:21:00,600 --> 00:21:02,160
Otherwise they're, they're not 
welcome. 

448
00:21:02,160 --> 00:21:04,160
But that's it. 
We're just, we're just in charge

449
00:21:04,160 --> 00:21:06,320
now. 
The other thing that Farrar has 

450
00:21:06,320 --> 00:21:09,120
always been very, very good at 
is recognizing that as the 

451
00:21:09,120 --> 00:21:12,280
leader of what is normally a 
small party is that he is at his

452
00:21:12,280 --> 00:21:14,800
most effective when the big 
parties are trying to do 

453
00:21:14,800 --> 00:21:17,640
something about him. 
And so, for example, during the 

454
00:21:17,640 --> 00:21:21,080
UKIP years, he was always 
talking about, oh, I'm having, 

455
00:21:21,080 --> 00:21:24,120
I, I've spoken to 9 Conservative
MPs always, always having these 

456
00:21:24,120 --> 00:21:25,600
conversations. 
How many of them actually 

457
00:21:25,600 --> 00:21:26,760
defected over that entire 
period? 

458
00:21:26,760 --> 00:21:29,880
It was 2. 
But he understands, you know, 

459
00:21:29,920 --> 00:21:31,680
and this was a big distinction 
between him and Richard Tice 

460
00:21:31,680 --> 00:21:33,600
when Richard Tice was Reform 
leader, because Richard Tice 

461
00:21:33,600 --> 00:21:35,200
would be like, we need to 
destroy the Tory party. 

462
00:21:35,360 --> 00:21:37,000
It's a great force for evil and 
all the rest of it. 

463
00:21:37,240 --> 00:21:39,880
And if nothing else, that meant 
the Tory party wasn't going to 

464
00:21:39,880 --> 00:21:43,400
try and adapt to you. 
And last time the Tory Party 

465
00:21:43,400 --> 00:21:45,760
tried to adapt to Nigel Farage, 
it left the European Union. 

466
00:21:46,480 --> 00:21:48,080
So he is very, very good at 
this. 

467
00:21:48,080 --> 00:21:51,440
So I would not be surprised if 
I'm sure they might be a Labour 

468
00:21:51,440 --> 00:21:54,160
defector. 
But Farage understands that it 

469
00:21:54,160 --> 00:21:57,880
is entirely to his advantage to 
always have an ambiguous and a 

470
00:21:57,880 --> 00:22:00,640
larger than real implied number 
of potential defectors. 

471
00:22:00,640 --> 00:22:06,440
So either of you expecting it it
to be a a Labour MP or any Tory 

472
00:22:06,440 --> 00:22:09,320
MPs to follow Robert Jenrick? 
It would be your biggest 

473
00:22:09,320 --> 00:22:11,720
surprise if Fraser Reeves all 
suddenly turns around tomorrow, 

474
00:22:11,920 --> 00:22:14,720
Says that's it, I'm off. 
I'm joining reform. 

475
00:22:15,000 --> 00:22:16,920
That'd be that'd be a. 
Good watch. 

476
00:22:16,920 --> 00:22:18,240
Who? 
I mean Shabana Mahmood. 

477
00:22:18,360 --> 00:22:19,440
Yeah, Yeah. 
Yeah, yeah. 

478
00:22:19,760 --> 00:22:21,320
Oh, they'd. 
They'd love it. 

479
00:22:21,320 --> 00:22:23,600
Oh, no, Yeah, that'd be great. 
But yeah, I've come to believe 

480
00:22:23,600 --> 00:22:25,880
that Labour cannot deliver the 
immigration policy that Britain 

481
00:22:25,880 --> 00:22:28,760
needs. 
But no, I I've got shockingly 

482
00:22:28,760 --> 00:22:30,840
conservative homes. 
Labour sources aren't all they 

483
00:22:30,840 --> 00:22:33,680
could be. 
Looking ahead, predictions are 

484
00:22:33,680 --> 00:22:35,360
always terrible. 
You know, you see how quickly 

485
00:22:35,360 --> 00:22:39,040
things moved yesterday. 
The next big test is the is the 

486
00:22:39,040 --> 00:22:42,720
local elections. 
Who will this play best for? 

487
00:22:44,000 --> 00:22:47,440
I mean, on current polling 
reform, reform wildly 

488
00:22:47,440 --> 00:22:50,280
outperformed pollster's 
expectations last time. 

489
00:22:50,640 --> 00:22:54,200
The conservative polling is 
better, but not that much better

490
00:22:54,200 --> 00:22:55,800
than it was a year ago. 
I think this is one of the 

491
00:22:55,800 --> 00:22:59,480
reasons, the sort of the less 
cynical reasons for looking at 

492
00:22:59,480 --> 00:23:02,600
why supporters Robert Jenrick 
are a bit jaded about the Chemi 

493
00:23:02,600 --> 00:23:06,040
bounces it's being called, is 
that Chemi became leader in 

494
00:23:06,040 --> 00:23:08,600
November 24 of a party on 25 
points in the polls. 

495
00:23:08,760 --> 00:23:11,840
She then took it to 17% and has 
now got it to 20%. 

496
00:23:12,240 --> 00:23:14,760
And there there's a slight 
frustration that she's getting a

497
00:23:14,760 --> 00:23:18,360
lot of credit for this bounce 
when net Chemi is still -5 

498
00:23:18,360 --> 00:23:22,560
points from when she took over. 
And the, the, the devastating 

499
00:23:22,560 --> 00:23:24,680
thing about that set of local 
elections last year, as I 

500
00:23:24,680 --> 00:23:27,560
alluded to earlier, is the 
Tories, 2/3 of their counsellors

501
00:23:27,800 --> 00:23:29,720
and their counsellors are the 
overwhelming majority of their 

502
00:23:29,720 --> 00:23:31,160
infantry. 
There are now large parts of 

503
00:23:31,160 --> 00:23:33,000
England where there is 
functionally no conservative 

504
00:23:33,000 --> 00:23:36,600
ground machine. 
If that happens again, even it 

505
00:23:36,600 --> 00:23:38,920
or anything like it happens 
again, even if it is slightly 

506
00:23:38,920 --> 00:23:41,880
better than last year, even if 
the trajectory is gently 

507
00:23:41,880 --> 00:23:46,640
upwards, you're just eating away
at the thing that allows you to 

508
00:23:46,640 --> 00:23:49,640
mobilize your vote. 
And if you're talking about high

509
00:23:49,640 --> 00:23:51,960
engagement voters who are 
prepared to turn out because of 

510
00:23:51,960 --> 00:23:54,360
a national air war media 
campaign, those are reform 

511
00:23:54,360 --> 00:23:56,800
voters, right? 
The advantage, which is the 

512
00:23:56,800 --> 00:23:58,800
structural advantage of the 
Conservative Party, the Labour 

513
00:23:58,800 --> 00:24:01,960
Party, the big parties, is that 
they have the people who have 

514
00:24:01,960 --> 00:24:03,840
the addresses of all their 
supporters and we'll go and 

515
00:24:03,840 --> 00:24:06,040
knock them up three times and 
we'll drive them to the polling 

516
00:24:06,040 --> 00:24:09,000
station if they want it. 
If that goes, then suddenly the 

517
00:24:09,000 --> 00:24:12,840
fact that Reform has a fairly 
vestigial membership structure 

518
00:24:12,840 --> 00:24:14,800
at all, even if it has a large 
number of nominal members, 

519
00:24:15,000 --> 00:24:17,320
counts for a lot less. 
So what do the Conservatives do 

520
00:24:17,320 --> 00:24:19,320
to stay alive? 
To survive. 

521
00:24:22,120 --> 00:24:25,160
I mean, you're probably the best
one to answer this, but. 

522
00:24:26,440 --> 00:24:29,440
Did they change shape? 
I mean, so they have to, I mean,

523
00:24:29,440 --> 00:24:31,560
it's actually incredibly 
difficult because in the the in 

524
00:24:31,560 --> 00:24:33,640
the short term, if you're 
looking at a survival general 

525
00:24:33,640 --> 00:24:37,360
election, you want to avoid 
losing too many votes to the 

526
00:24:37,600 --> 00:24:40,040
Liberal Democrats or prior to 
the election of Zach Polanski 

527
00:24:40,040 --> 00:24:42,000
and the Greens going in a much 
left more left wing direction to

528
00:24:42,000 --> 00:24:44,880
the Greens because there are 
well heeled Shire seats where 

529
00:24:44,880 --> 00:24:48,600
that was a real danger. 
But essentially you need to try 

530
00:24:48,600 --> 00:24:53,200
and find a way of reconciling is
the fact that you're dependent 

531
00:24:53,200 --> 00:24:56,160
on the votes of the over 50 
fives who love public, lots of 

532
00:24:56,160 --> 00:24:59,400
public spending on them. 
The fact that you are nominally 

533
00:24:59,400 --> 00:25:02,120
a party of lower taxes who's 
meant to appeal to the 

534
00:25:02,120 --> 00:25:06,000
economically aspirational, which
requires you not necessarily 

535
00:25:06,000 --> 00:25:08,520
taking all of their money to 
hose it at your existing voters.

536
00:25:08,880 --> 00:25:11,680
And the fact that they do need 
to just public opinion has 

537
00:25:11,680 --> 00:25:14,480
shifted very far on law and 
order and things like the 

538
00:25:14,480 --> 00:25:15,760
European Convention on Human 
Rights. 

539
00:25:15,960 --> 00:25:19,240
And I think one of the missed 
opportunities of the leadership 

540
00:25:19,240 --> 00:25:21,520
contest, and one of the reasons 
that that that can be made not 

541
00:25:21,520 --> 00:25:23,560
running as a unity candidate, 
maybe hit the snooze button on 

542
00:25:23,560 --> 00:25:26,240
this, is that the party is 
paralysed by the fact that it's 

543
00:25:26,240 --> 00:25:28,240
MPs fundamentally disagree on 
these questions. 

544
00:25:28,680 --> 00:25:31,800
And until they have that fight, 
there's a, there's a sort of, 

545
00:25:32,080 --> 00:25:34,240
there's a tendency to elevate 
unity above everything else. 

546
00:25:34,400 --> 00:25:35,840
But actually the party is 
divided. 

547
00:25:36,000 --> 00:25:38,040
You can tell because it is 
almost incapable of making 

548
00:25:38,040 --> 00:25:40,720
decisions and it needs to have 
that fight and someone needs to 

549
00:25:40,720 --> 00:25:42,200
win. 
Look at the front bench of the 

550
00:25:42,200 --> 00:25:44,960
Tory party. 
Do you look at who do you see 

551
00:25:44,960 --> 00:25:47,040
there? 
You think, OK, that's the person

552
00:25:47,040 --> 00:25:50,440
now who's going to be able to 
step up, fill the void on on on 

553
00:25:50,440 --> 00:25:53,200
days when either they're not 
getting the coverage they want 

554
00:25:53,200 --> 00:25:55,440
or they need to land a blow. 
This is the person that we're 

555
00:25:55,440 --> 00:25:57,760
going to. 
Put there is there is they are 

556
00:25:57,760 --> 00:25:59,000
currently auditioning for that 
position. 

557
00:25:59,000 --> 00:26:00,600
There is not currently another 
Robert Jenrick. 

558
00:26:01,320 --> 00:26:03,520
There are there are some who are
better media performance. 

559
00:26:03,520 --> 00:26:05,680
Claire Coutinho is very good, 
yeah, but. 

560
00:26:05,680 --> 00:26:08,000
She's been out a bit the last 
couple of weeks. 

561
00:26:08,160 --> 00:26:11,320
She seems to he's learned Robert
Jenrick's patented walking 

562
00:26:11,320 --> 00:26:13,560
towards the camera video 
technique, one of the earliest 

563
00:26:13,560 --> 00:26:16,360
adopters of the but she's 
currently in energy and 

564
00:26:16,360 --> 00:26:19,360
important as that brief is in 
policy terms, it's not something

565
00:26:19,360 --> 00:26:21,920
that really lets you get the 
blows in on a day-to-day basis. 

566
00:26:22,120 --> 00:26:25,800
They've put Nick Timothy in 
injustice now again, he was a 

567
00:26:25,800 --> 00:26:28,480
Home Office spat for a very long
time and obviously that 

568
00:26:28,480 --> 00:26:29,840
intersects quite a lot with 
justice. 

569
00:26:29,920 --> 00:26:33,360
So on policy that might be 
really good is I've not seen 

570
00:26:33,360 --> 00:26:36,600
much of him as a as a kind of 
frontline communicator. 

571
00:26:36,800 --> 00:26:38,840
And This is why I think that the
party would be better to be 

572
00:26:38,840 --> 00:26:41,480
honest and recognise that Robert
Generec is a loss to the party 

573
00:26:41,680 --> 00:26:44,240
because actually it does not 
have very many people who are 

574
00:26:44,240 --> 00:26:47,040
capable yet or at the moment of 
doing what he did. 

575
00:26:47,640 --> 00:26:52,240
Paul, just to sum up, does this 
story mark a really significant 

576
00:26:52,240 --> 00:26:56,640
turning point or a source of 
intense bit of psychodrama? 

577
00:26:56,640 --> 00:26:58,840
Might you say that is over and 
done with now? 

578
00:26:59,520 --> 00:27:04,200
It's not over and done with. 
I think this will be seen as as 

579
00:27:04,200 --> 00:27:06,200
a as a big moment. 
I don't think it will be seen as

580
00:27:06,200 --> 00:27:09,920
a turning point. 
It's really a marker of this is 

581
00:27:09,920 --> 00:27:12,040
where momentum is going at the 
moment. 

582
00:27:12,280 --> 00:27:15,760
And while there were some people
who were thinking for a bit, OK,

583
00:27:15,760 --> 00:27:20,280
actually maybe reforms, the lead
in the poll is, is is coming to 

584
00:27:20,280 --> 00:27:21,960
an asset. 
Maybe it's slowing down. 

585
00:27:22,160 --> 00:27:23,320
Oh, there's a bit of a chemi 
bounce. 

586
00:27:23,320 --> 00:27:25,040
She's done quite well the last 
little while. 

587
00:27:25,200 --> 00:27:27,480
Maybe she's bouncing. 
Actually, no, the momentum is 

588
00:27:27,480 --> 00:27:29,720
still very much on reform side. 
We'll be. 

589
00:27:29,720 --> 00:27:31,800
Talking about it again, Henry 
Paul, thanks very much for 

590
00:27:31,800 --> 00:27:34,160
talking to us. 
That is it from the forecast 

591
00:27:34,160 --> 00:27:35,720
today. 
See you next time.