1 00:00:00,400 --> 00:00:03,560 We're inching closer and closer towards the exact kind of 2 00:00:03,560 --> 00:00:06,840 confrontation that countries have been trying to avoid since 3 00:00:06,840 --> 00:00:09,240 the last World war. This was a difficult decision. 4 00:00:09,480 --> 00:00:11,840 I know it it. There's a lot of peril in doing 5 00:00:11,840 --> 00:00:13,720 this, but I think it was the right thing to do. 6 00:00:13,920 --> 00:00:17,080 Yet again we see a war of choice. 7 00:00:17,120 --> 00:00:20,840 No clear strategy, no understanding of the cultural 8 00:00:20,840 --> 00:00:23,960 implication, no real effort to protect the people. 9 00:00:24,080 --> 00:00:29,000 What is left at the end of this could be 10 times worse as a 10 00:00:29,000 --> 00:00:34,080 consequence. Hello and welcome to the 11 00:00:34,080 --> 00:00:36,240 Forecast. I'm Christian Guru Murphy in Tel 12 00:00:36,240 --> 00:00:40,680 Aviv, where we have started to see Iranian cluster missiles 13 00:00:40,680 --> 00:00:42,800 being intercepted by air defences here. 14 00:00:43,120 --> 00:00:47,920 But a week into this war, the Middle East is on fire, Qatar is 15 00:00:47,920 --> 00:00:52,600 warning today of global economic disaster, and the White House is 16 00:00:52,600 --> 00:00:56,880 pumping out propaganda videos of Hollywood memes to try and get 17 00:00:56,880 --> 00:01:01,080 its base enthused about the war in the face of some skeptical 18 00:01:01,080 --> 00:01:04,319 opinion polls. Joining me today, General Sir 19 00:01:04,319 --> 00:01:07,920 Richard Sheriff, former commander of NATO forces in 20 00:01:07,920 --> 00:01:11,440 Europe, who this week described Trump and Hexif as a pair of 21 00:01:11,440 --> 00:01:15,320 gung ho nutters. Professor Shimen Keitner is an 22 00:01:15,320 --> 00:01:19,640 expert in international law and formerly worked at the State 23 00:01:19,640 --> 00:01:22,760 Department as their international legal counsellor 24 00:01:22,920 --> 00:01:26,520 during the first Trump term. And the former chief of staff in 25 00:01:26,520 --> 00:01:30,960 the National Security Council, Fred Fleitz, also joins us from 26 00:01:30,960 --> 00:01:32,800 the United States. Thank you all so much for 27 00:01:33,240 --> 00:01:36,320 joining us, Sir Richard. At the beginning of the week, 28 00:01:36,320 --> 00:01:41,880 you warned of your fears that this war could lead to a World 29 00:01:41,880 --> 00:01:46,120 War Three, and you have also defended the Prime Minister from 30 00:01:46,120 --> 00:01:49,200 jibes from Donald Trump about him not being Winston Churchill. 31 00:01:49,360 --> 00:01:50,960 How do you feel about this war now? 32 00:01:51,080 --> 00:01:53,600 I feel much the same as I did when I woke up on Saturday 33 00:01:53,600 --> 00:01:57,320 morning and heard the news that that that a yet another American 34 00:01:57,320 --> 00:02:01,480 president has has launched a war of choice in the Middle East 35 00:02:01,480 --> 00:02:05,880 without any clear end state, no strategy, and no idea how this 36 00:02:05,880 --> 00:02:10,960 war is going to end. Do you still fear that this can 37 00:02:10,960 --> 00:02:13,320 lead to something much, much bigger, what you call the World 38 00:02:13,320 --> 00:02:15,320 War 3? Yeah. 39 00:02:15,320 --> 00:02:17,760 I mean, there are many like President Zelensky who said 40 00:02:17,760 --> 00:02:19,320 we're already in World War Three. 41 00:02:19,320 --> 00:02:22,200 And, and, and the reality is of course, that Europe is fighting 42 00:02:22,240 --> 00:02:26,800 a covert war with Russia and Russia is fighting a covert war 43 00:02:26,800 --> 00:02:28,200 in Europe. And we've talked about that 44 00:02:28,200 --> 00:02:32,520 before in a separate context, but the potential knock on 45 00:02:32,520 --> 00:02:37,160 effect of this war has already generated a regional war across 46 00:02:37,160 --> 00:02:41,560 the Middle East and, and, and the potential for things to go 47 00:02:41,560 --> 00:02:44,520 South in a very big way. Should China, for example, take 48 00:02:44,520 --> 00:02:47,400 advantage of America and be America being fixed in the 49 00:02:47,400 --> 00:02:51,560 Middle East to have a crack at Taiwan And, and who knows what 50 00:02:51,560 --> 00:02:54,800 Putin might try to do to embarrass NATO at the same time? 51 00:02:55,200 --> 00:02:58,440 I mean the the the the the the potential scenarios are 52 00:02:58,440 --> 00:03:00,360 boundless. How do you feel about the 53 00:03:00,360 --> 00:03:03,120 justifications that we've heard for the war this. 54 00:03:03,120 --> 00:03:04,320 Week. Well, we seem to have 55 00:03:04,320 --> 00:03:07,440 flip-flopped from regime change to destruction of nuclear 56 00:03:07,440 --> 00:03:13,600 weapons without any real clarity about the objectives. 57 00:03:13,640 --> 00:03:17,800 And so I, and then, and then on top of that, we get the, the, 58 00:03:17,840 --> 00:03:21,000 the, the, the, the propaganda feed. 59 00:03:21,000 --> 00:03:23,680 And let's be clear from a military, purely military 60 00:03:23,680 --> 00:03:27,320 perspective, I mean, what America and Israel are doing in 61 00:03:27,320 --> 00:03:31,200 applying military force on an industrial scale, as any 62 00:03:31,200 --> 00:03:33,600 military man would tell you is impressive. 63 00:03:34,400 --> 00:03:36,720 But it's more than that. You need to think about, you 64 00:03:36,720 --> 00:03:39,040 need to have a thought. You need to think through the 65 00:03:39,040 --> 00:03:43,160 impact of what operations, what your operations are doing on the 66 00:03:43,160 --> 00:03:45,640 minds of the people among whom you're operating. 67 00:03:46,200 --> 00:03:49,160 And if you alienate the people, if you are looking to change the 68 00:03:49,160 --> 00:03:53,800 type dynamic of of what is a pernicious and vile regime in in 69 00:03:53,800 --> 00:03:56,680 Iran, granted. But if you're trying to do that, 70 00:03:57,000 --> 00:03:59,880 you probably want to find, have a be able to apply a little bit 71 00:03:59,880 --> 00:04:02,320 of carrot at the same time as a stick. 72 00:04:02,320 --> 00:04:03,840 And that doesn't seem to be happening. 73 00:04:04,320 --> 00:04:08,320 And as a military man, are you concerned about the basis in 74 00:04:08,320 --> 00:04:11,360 international law for this, or do you accept the national 75 00:04:11,360 --> 00:04:12,520 interest? Trump's that? 76 00:04:13,080 --> 00:04:18,399 You need to ask a lawyer, but but the basic say that you've 77 00:04:18,399 --> 00:04:22,760 got to be prepared to you have a right of self defence and I, I 78 00:04:23,040 --> 00:04:26,480 you then need to ask what self defence was being applied here. 79 00:04:26,880 --> 00:04:31,520 And of course, as the dynamic of this war develops, and every war 80 00:04:31,520 --> 00:04:35,520 has a dynamic of its own that develops because of that, that, 81 00:04:35,520 --> 00:04:37,280 that that gets even more complicated. 82 00:04:37,280 --> 00:04:41,160 But of course Iran is now launching missiles at our 83 00:04:41,520 --> 00:04:45,120 British allies in the Middle East, launching missiles or 84 00:04:45,120 --> 00:04:49,240 drones at British air bases in Cyprus and the right of self 85 00:04:49,240 --> 00:04:52,560 defence applies there. But it's a very complicated 86 00:04:52,560 --> 00:04:56,320 thing because the reality is as well that any organised, any 87 00:04:56,320 --> 00:05:00,680 nation lining up alongside America and Israel in this war 88 00:05:01,080 --> 00:05:04,480 is going to own the problem when the bombing stops. 89 00:05:04,840 --> 00:05:08,160 And I think it's highly likely, frankly, that when the bombing 90 00:05:08,160 --> 00:05:11,240 stops, Trump will declare victory, walk away, leave a 91 00:05:11,440 --> 00:05:15,480 smouldering pile of Iranian rubble, and those countries that 92 00:05:15,480 --> 00:05:19,160 have been alongside will be owning the problem for years to 93 00:05:19,160 --> 00:05:21,040 come. Professor Keitner, let me bring 94 00:05:21,040 --> 00:05:22,960 you in. I I'm sure you're more concerned 95 00:05:22,960 --> 00:05:25,400 about the the basis in international law. 96 00:05:25,440 --> 00:05:28,080 If you were in the State Department still, would you be 97 00:05:28,080 --> 00:05:30,280 telling them they have a legal basis for action? 98 00:05:30,480 --> 00:05:32,960 All right. Well, legal advice, of course, 99 00:05:32,960 --> 00:05:35,400 depends on the questions being asked. 100 00:05:35,400 --> 00:05:37,720 And unfortunately, if I were in the State Department now, I 101 00:05:37,720 --> 00:05:40,160 don't think anyone in the White House would be listening to me. 102 00:05:40,520 --> 00:05:43,760 But I would say that the legal framework that applies to going 103 00:05:43,760 --> 00:05:47,680 to war, the UN Charter, we have Aun Security Council for a 104 00:05:47,680 --> 00:05:50,040 reason. And unless the Security Council 105 00:05:50,040 --> 00:05:53,600 has authorized the use of force, or the force is being used 106 00:05:53,600 --> 00:05:56,680 against an imminent threat, there is no legal basis. 107 00:05:57,480 --> 00:06:00,920 Let's bring in Fred flights then in the United States, I mean 108 00:06:01,360 --> 00:06:05,320 criticisms on a number of fronts for you to pick up on there. 109 00:06:05,440 --> 00:06:07,800 Let's begin with with international law. 110 00:06:07,800 --> 00:06:13,720 Are you not concerned that scholars and close allies like 111 00:06:13,720 --> 00:06:16,640 Britain don't think the initial attack was legal? 112 00:06:16,800 --> 00:06:20,600 Well, I, I first want to talk about the justification for the 113 00:06:20,600 --> 00:06:22,160 war, which I think is pretty strong. 114 00:06:22,160 --> 00:06:25,520 President Trump said the US has to stop Iran from getting 115 00:06:25,520 --> 00:06:29,320 nuclear weapons, has to stop a missile program that by the end 116 00:06:29,320 --> 00:06:32,840 of the year probably would have doubled in size and may have 117 00:06:32,840 --> 00:06:36,240 constituted a missile shield. That's what Secretary Rubio said 118 00:06:36,240 --> 00:06:38,760 this week that would have prevented pre emptive action 119 00:06:38,760 --> 00:06:41,400 against the the Iranian nuclear program. 120 00:06:41,400 --> 00:06:45,120 And President Trump is providing A pathway for the Iranian people 121 00:06:45,120 --> 00:06:48,280 to take back their government. And for people argue about 122 00:06:48,280 --> 00:06:51,200 international law, we all know nothing could be done about this 123 00:06:51,200 --> 00:06:53,520 in the UN Security Council because of vetoes for the 124 00:06:53,520 --> 00:06:56,840 Chinese and the Russians. So international law can't help 125 00:06:56,840 --> 00:06:58,960 these people. Will 10s of thousands of them be 126 00:06:58,960 --> 00:07:01,880 executed again, Trump is giving them an opportunity. 127 00:07:01,880 --> 00:07:04,920 That's why the the Australian Canadian governments have 128 00:07:04,920 --> 00:07:08,000 endorsed this operation. That's why hundreds of thousands 129 00:07:08,320 --> 00:07:12,880 of Iranians in the Iranian diaspora have enthusiastically 130 00:07:13,200 --> 00:07:16,200 celebrated with mass demonstrations in London and 131 00:07:16,760 --> 00:07:19,800 Berlin, in New York, in Los Angeles, because they see 132 00:07:19,800 --> 00:07:22,080 freedom, they see the end of an evil regime. 133 00:07:22,280 --> 00:07:25,000 They see an American president who had the courage to do 134 00:07:25,000 --> 00:07:28,240 something very difficult and not without giving the Iranians A 135 00:07:28,240 --> 00:07:31,120 diplomatic way out. So I think this was a difficult 136 00:07:31,120 --> 00:07:33,440 decision. I know it it there's a lot of 137 00:07:33,440 --> 00:07:36,160 peril in doing this, but I think it was the right thing to do. 138 00:07:36,320 --> 00:07:39,840 But what do you make when you hear a man like Sir Richard 139 00:07:39,840 --> 00:07:44,520 there, a former NATO commander, effectively saying, you know, 140 00:07:44,520 --> 00:07:46,720 he, he doesn't know what the strategy is, he doesn't know 141 00:07:46,720 --> 00:07:49,840 what this is going to achieve and he's very worried about 142 00:07:49,840 --> 00:07:52,080 where it's going to lead. Well, I think there's clearly a 143 00:07:52,080 --> 00:07:54,800 strategy, which is one reason why we didn't start bombing in 144 00:07:54,800 --> 00:07:57,600 January. After the massive crackdown on 145 00:07:57,600 --> 00:08:01,040 Iranian protesters. There was some time taken to 146 00:08:01,040 --> 00:08:05,000 plan this, but Joint Chiefs of Staff General Kane said 147 00:08:05,280 --> 00:08:07,680 operations like this are planned over many years. 148 00:08:07,680 --> 00:08:10,040 There's a lot of war gaming. There's a lot of planning done. 149 00:08:10,400 --> 00:08:14,000 And I think we're simply seeing the very early days of a four to 150 00:08:14,000 --> 00:08:18,320 five week operation to take out this regime, to destroy its 151 00:08:18,520 --> 00:08:21,960 offensive capabilities, hopefully to discourse security 152 00:08:21,960 --> 00:08:24,920 services, which will give the Iranian people an opportunity to 153 00:08:24,920 --> 00:08:28,200 take back their government. But look, neither the general or 154 00:08:28,200 --> 00:08:31,120 I know this full plan. The administration is not 155 00:08:31,120 --> 00:08:34,240 admitting to exactly what it is going to do publicly because 156 00:08:34,240 --> 00:08:36,039 they don't want to inform the Iranian regime. 157 00:08:36,400 --> 00:08:37,720 So, Richard, what do you make of that? 158 00:08:37,840 --> 00:08:39,720 Well, it was a bit to unpack there, isn't there? 159 00:08:39,880 --> 00:08:43,320 I mean, pathway for the Iranian people to take back their 160 00:08:43,320 --> 00:08:47,240 government? What is that pathway? 161 00:08:47,400 --> 00:08:52,120 How are you expecting bombed, traumatized people to step up 162 00:08:52,120 --> 00:08:56,200 against the IRGC and the Bazji, the Bazij militia? 163 00:08:57,200 --> 00:08:59,400 How? And and then you think back to 164 00:08:59,560 --> 00:09:03,920 the, the very action of assassinating Khamenei, who of 165 00:09:04,800 --> 00:09:07,520 on the one hand, of course, he was the head of state, but at 166 00:09:07,520 --> 00:09:12,680 the same time he is, he was a a revered Shia cleric. 167 00:09:13,320 --> 00:09:16,200 And by doing that, what America and Israel have done is 168 00:09:16,200 --> 00:09:19,560 immediately promoted him to the ranks of the martyred Saints and 169 00:09:19,560 --> 00:09:22,960 alienated Shia Muslims right across the world. 170 00:09:23,520 --> 00:09:27,480 And in doing that, what you're doing is most likely pushing any 171 00:09:27,480 --> 00:09:31,800 moderate Iranian who might who might be fed up to the back 172 00:09:31,800 --> 00:09:34,800 teeth with the with the theocracy and longing for a 173 00:09:34,800 --> 00:09:36,640 change. But you're going to harden 174 00:09:36,640 --> 00:09:40,000 opinion and most likely push them into the ranks of the the 175 00:09:40,000 --> 00:09:43,520 hardliners. And if this is Billy basic stuff 176 00:09:43,520 --> 00:09:48,280 that any anybody who served in that I'll starred operation in 177 00:09:48,280 --> 00:09:51,960 Iraq would understand the need to get under the skin and 178 00:09:51,960 --> 00:09:54,240 understand the cultural implications of what you're 179 00:09:54,240 --> 00:09:56,200 doing. And instead of which we're 180 00:09:56,200 --> 00:10:01,680 seeing mass industrial warfare thumping Iranian cities, 181 00:10:01,880 --> 00:10:06,400 rubbling in very Iranian cities without any effort to try and 182 00:10:06,600 --> 00:10:09,360 reach out to the population. On top of which we've just 183 00:10:09,360 --> 00:10:12,280 heard, of course, that Trump is demanding nothing but 184 00:10:12,280 --> 00:10:15,280 unconditional surrender. That doesn't sound to me like 185 00:10:15,280 --> 00:10:18,520 reaching out to the Iranian people to help them take back 186 00:10:18,520 --> 00:10:22,520 their government. And if I may, if if this nuclear 187 00:10:22,520 --> 00:10:27,560 threat is so, so dire that by the end of the year, I think you 188 00:10:27,560 --> 00:10:30,640 said the their, their nuclear weapons will double in size. 189 00:10:30,960 --> 00:10:33,280 Why I didn't say that Trump missiles, I said missiles. 190 00:10:33,480 --> 00:10:36,600 But why is it nevertheless? Why is it that America and Trump 191 00:10:36,600 --> 00:10:39,680 were boasting that last June the nuclear threat had been a 192 00:10:39,680 --> 00:10:43,200 liberal obliterated? If it was obliterated in June, 193 00:10:43,200 --> 00:10:45,600 my goodness me, they've done a lot to get to the stage where 194 00:10:45,600 --> 00:10:48,640 you've got to launch a war now to obliterate it once again. 195 00:10:49,600 --> 00:10:51,480 Fred flies. Well. 196 00:10:51,960 --> 00:10:55,640 I think the nuclear program was obliterated last June, but since 197 00:10:55,640 --> 00:10:59,000 then the Iranian government has been rebuilding its nuclear 198 00:10:59,000 --> 00:11:01,560 missile programs. I think their missile program 199 00:11:01,560 --> 00:11:04,040 has been set back substantially more than U.S. 200 00:11:04,040 --> 00:11:07,000 Government officials are saying the missile program has made 201 00:11:07,000 --> 00:11:09,640 major advances. I think there's reliable 202 00:11:09,640 --> 00:11:13,680 intelligence that Iran is making up to 100 missiles a month. 203 00:11:14,040 --> 00:11:17,920 And according to Secretary of State Rubio, the plan for Iran 204 00:11:18,120 --> 00:11:22,040 is to use its missiles as a shield to protect attacks of the 205 00:11:22,040 --> 00:11:25,160 nuclear infrastructure, which might become impossible by the 206 00:11:25,160 --> 00:11:28,440 end of the year. I think an Iranian nuclear 207 00:11:28,440 --> 00:11:31,640 weapon is unacceptable and that Iran is determined to build 1 208 00:11:31,880 --> 00:11:34,720 and that this may be our only opportunity to make sure that it 209 00:11:34,720 --> 00:11:35,880 doesn't. And what? 210 00:11:35,880 --> 00:11:39,960 About Sir Richard's point about the folly of the assassination 211 00:11:39,960 --> 00:11:44,040 of the Ayatollah in the way it was done and and what what what 212 00:11:44,040 --> 00:11:48,960 that does to the Shia population and moderate Iranian people who 213 00:11:48,960 --> 00:11:53,400 who may be may be turnable. The Ayatollah is incredibly 214 00:11:53,400 --> 00:11:56,800 unpopular in Iran, and the death of the Ayatollah is being 215 00:11:56,800 --> 00:12:01,000 celebrated across the country. About 20% of the country support 216 00:12:01,120 --> 00:12:04,080 this current regime. Most of them hate this regime. 217 00:12:04,080 --> 00:12:06,920 It has been so brutal. It's destroyed the economy. 218 00:12:07,040 --> 00:12:09,360 This is especially true among young people. 219 00:12:09,800 --> 00:12:13,120 You know, I haven't seen any signs of a movement that that is 220 00:12:13,120 --> 00:12:16,040 revering the hominy as a martyr right now. 221 00:12:16,040 --> 00:12:18,960 I'm sure that there are. This 20% is very angry. 222 00:12:18,960 --> 00:12:21,600 I don't dispute that. But this is a leader who is 223 00:12:21,760 --> 00:12:24,560 destroyed this country. The vast majority of Iranians 224 00:12:24,560 --> 00:12:26,440 agree with that. That's why they were out 225 00:12:26,440 --> 00:12:29,880 celebrating after he was killed. So, Richard? 226 00:12:29,920 --> 00:12:31,160 What? What would you say to that? 227 00:12:31,480 --> 00:12:33,960 Well, you. You, you may be right and they 228 00:12:33,960 --> 00:12:35,800 may have been celebrating, but of course they might be 229 00:12:35,800 --> 00:12:37,720 celebrating. But now then they're almost 230 00:12:37,720 --> 00:12:41,080 immediately taking cover from, from the mass bombings that are 231 00:12:41,080 --> 00:12:43,920 going on. And I think that, you know, that 232 00:12:43,920 --> 00:12:46,960 I, I, I stand by that principle that you have to understand the 233 00:12:46,960 --> 00:12:49,480 nature or the impact what you're doing on the minds of the 234 00:12:49,480 --> 00:12:53,440 people. And, and, and has that really 235 00:12:53,440 --> 00:12:57,440 been thought through? And I think to assassinate a, a 236 00:12:57,440 --> 00:13:01,240 major sheer figure during the holy month of Ramadan, as I said 237 00:13:01,240 --> 00:13:05,040 earlier in an earlier interview, it is about as subtle as 238 00:13:05,040 --> 00:13:08,200 shooting the Pope on the steps of Saint Peter's Cathedral, 239 00:13:08,200 --> 00:13:10,760 Saint Peter's in Rome during Holy Week. 240 00:13:11,360 --> 00:13:14,520 It doesn't smack of of sophisticated understanding. 241 00:13:14,520 --> 00:13:17,280 Frankly, this is a. Country that's been at war with 242 00:13:17,280 --> 00:13:20,520 our country for 47 years. It sent assassination squads 243 00:13:20,760 --> 00:13:23,560 into into Europe to kill dissidents. 244 00:13:23,720 --> 00:13:27,760 It sent teams in the United States to capture and spirit 245 00:13:27,760 --> 00:13:30,240 back to Iran. Dissident journalist who had 246 00:13:30,240 --> 00:13:33,160 criticized Iran. This is a This is a government 247 00:13:33,200 --> 00:13:35,200 that's been trying to assassinate the president of the 248 00:13:35,200 --> 00:13:37,680 United States. This is a government that is a 249 00:13:37,680 --> 00:13:41,000 terrorist state on a different level than other adversaries 250 00:13:41,000 --> 00:13:42,440 America has faced through history. 251 00:13:42,680 --> 00:13:45,080 I agree with you. I don't like the prospect of 252 00:13:45,080 --> 00:13:48,360 assassinating leader of another state and I, I, I think this is 253 00:13:48,360 --> 00:13:50,640 something that, frankly, if there was another way to do it, 254 00:13:50,640 --> 00:13:52,320 that isn't something I would have recommended. 255 00:13:52,520 --> 00:13:54,320 But I do think this is a special case. 256 00:13:54,760 --> 00:13:56,360 What? I'm concerned about is that what 257 00:13:56,360 --> 00:14:00,040 we seem to be hearing are a lot of ex post talking points. 258 00:14:00,360 --> 00:14:04,640 One of the important features of our legal system and our 259 00:14:04,640 --> 00:14:07,920 international order is that countries have the ability to 260 00:14:07,920 --> 00:14:12,160 make the case for why they think force should be used, what 261 00:14:12,360 --> 00:14:15,880 diplomatic efforts have been tried, why those have failed, 262 00:14:16,120 --> 00:14:19,680 and what we utterly lacked in the lead up to this really 263 00:14:19,680 --> 00:14:23,720 surprise attack with any attempt at laying the foundation, 264 00:14:23,920 --> 00:14:26,440 bringing allies on board and making the case. 265 00:14:26,440 --> 00:14:30,280 So I'm really not persuaded by any of these ex post attempts to 266 00:14:30,280 --> 00:14:33,880 justify different members of the administration have come up with 267 00:14:33,880 --> 00:14:35,800 different rationales at different times. 268 00:14:36,400 --> 00:14:39,320 It seems like they weren't even talking to their own negotiators 269 00:14:39,320 --> 00:14:42,880 on the ground. We had a report right before the 270 00:14:42,880 --> 00:14:45,080 bombing started. The negotiations were actually 271 00:14:45,080 --> 00:14:47,880 making progress. That's why we have a national 272 00:14:47,880 --> 00:14:50,520 security bureaucracy. I believe Fred was part of that 273 00:14:50,520 --> 00:14:52,840 as well. That's why you have advisors, 274 00:14:52,840 --> 00:14:55,040 including but not exclusively lawyers. 275 00:14:55,280 --> 00:14:58,880 And we have no confidence and no basis for confidence that any of 276 00:14:58,880 --> 00:15:02,800 that process either internally or externally took place. 277 00:15:02,800 --> 00:15:04,680 And that should worry everyone. I mean there. 278 00:15:04,680 --> 00:15:08,520 Was also a legal framework within the JCPOA, which Donald 279 00:15:08,520 --> 00:15:12,680 Trump pulled America out of. They say it was failing, you 280 00:15:12,680 --> 00:15:15,880 know, is that where the limits of international law meet 281 00:15:15,880 --> 00:15:17,280 reality? Well, I I. 282 00:15:17,280 --> 00:15:19,960 Don't think we have any basis in that assertion about what the 283 00:15:19,960 --> 00:15:23,360 so-called reality was. Again, based on public 284 00:15:23,360 --> 00:15:27,600 reporting, the military generals in Israel actually thought the 285 00:15:27,600 --> 00:15:31,600 JCPOA was a great arrangement for going forward, or at least 286 00:15:31,600 --> 00:15:33,520 many of them publicly said that they did. 287 00:15:33,720 --> 00:15:37,920 What we're encountering here is not so much the limits of law, 288 00:15:38,120 --> 00:15:42,240 it's the it's the unpredictability of politics and 289 00:15:42,240 --> 00:15:46,520 the lack of long term strategic vision in the interest not only 290 00:15:46,520 --> 00:15:52,080 of the United States, but of a largely peaceful world order. 291 00:15:52,080 --> 00:15:55,760 Again, that the number of wars raging in the world would 292 00:15:55,760 --> 00:15:58,680 surprise many people because a lot of them don't make the front 293 00:15:58,680 --> 00:16:02,000 pages. But we have so far managed to 294 00:16:02,000 --> 00:16:05,760 avoid a nuclear cataclysm. And what we're doing Russia is 295 00:16:05,760 --> 00:16:08,320 now apparently providing intelligence to the Iranians. 296 00:16:08,320 --> 00:16:11,680 China is behind the scenes. We're inching closer and closer 297 00:16:11,680 --> 00:16:15,080 towards the exact kind of confrontation that countries 298 00:16:15,080 --> 00:16:17,360 have been trying to avoid since the last World war. 299 00:16:18,040 --> 00:16:21,160 I mean, there was as, as the professor says, a legal 300 00:16:21,160 --> 00:16:24,240 framework. This was a choice to opt out of 301 00:16:24,240 --> 00:16:27,960 it and and just go for a sort of a gung ho strategy. 302 00:16:28,520 --> 00:16:32,720 Well, there's there's people who who believe and idealists who 303 00:16:32,720 --> 00:16:35,080 think that there's ways to resolve things like this by 304 00:16:35,080 --> 00:16:38,360 going to the Security Council and laying out your case. 305 00:16:38,640 --> 00:16:41,640 But in the real world, that simply was never going to work. 306 00:16:41,640 --> 00:16:44,560 I think that if you're you're going to talk about national law 307 00:16:44,560 --> 00:16:48,560 and giving notice, the US did engage in negotiations with Iran 308 00:16:48,560 --> 00:16:51,920 last year and this year. The Iranians would not agree to 309 00:16:51,920 --> 00:16:53,880 negotiate in good faith. They would not give up the 310 00:16:53,880 --> 00:16:56,800 uranium enrichment program, which is a weapons program. 311 00:16:57,000 --> 00:16:58,760 I know there's people who claim that it is not. 312 00:16:59,040 --> 00:17:02,720 But a nation with so much covert nuclear program can't be trusted 313 00:17:02,720 --> 00:17:04,319 with the uranium enrichment program. 314 00:17:04,480 --> 00:17:07,359 And the US refused to let them have an enrichment program 315 00:17:07,480 --> 00:17:10,560 before the Obama administration. This was a bad concession by the 316 00:17:10,560 --> 00:17:13,839 Obama administration, which is why the JCPOA was frankly a 317 00:17:13,839 --> 00:17:15,440 fraud. And I'm glad that President 318 00:17:15,440 --> 00:17:17,920 Trump withdrew. Well this what is something but 319 00:17:17,960 --> 00:17:19,280 your. Belief is working. 320 00:17:20,680 --> 00:17:22,880 It wasn't. Working and and Iran was 321 00:17:22,880 --> 00:17:25,160 cheating on it. We know we know that from 322 00:17:25,160 --> 00:17:28,119 documents that Israel stole from the Iranians the Iran nuclear 323 00:17:28,119 --> 00:17:32,120 archive in 2018. Iran was acquiring materials it 324 00:17:32,120 --> 00:17:34,120 wasn't supposed to have for nuclear programs. 325 00:17:34,240 --> 00:17:37,360 It was it was covertly developing advanced centrifuges 326 00:17:37,360 --> 00:17:41,440 of why it jumped so quickly to 60% enrichment in 2022. 327 00:17:41,760 --> 00:17:44,400 People who argue that it was working are are frankly lying. 328 00:17:44,400 --> 00:17:46,720 It wasn't working. It was frankly delaying an 329 00:17:46,720 --> 00:17:49,560 Iranian nuclear weapon, but they were still going to get one. 330 00:17:49,760 --> 00:17:53,440 Trump is going to stop Iran from ever getting a nuclear weapon. 331 00:17:53,440 --> 00:17:56,320 And you can argue, well, the UN isn't blessing this. 332 00:17:56,720 --> 00:18:00,160 I think justice for the Iranian people and stopping an Iranian 333 00:18:00,160 --> 00:18:05,320 nuclear weapon are moral positive objectives that frankly 334 00:18:05,320 --> 00:18:07,720 are worth doing even if the UN says we shouldn't do it. 335 00:18:07,920 --> 00:18:09,680 I'm pretty. Surprised to hear accusations of 336 00:18:09,680 --> 00:18:13,720 European leaders lying, but the you know, I think this is one of 337 00:18:13,800 --> 00:18:14,880 an. American leaders, today's. 338 00:18:14,880 --> 00:18:16,760 Media Environment Shaman. Kinda. 339 00:18:16,760 --> 00:18:19,000 I mean, isn't the trouble that now, now that we're in this 340 00:18:19,000 --> 00:18:22,800 world in which it's the law of the jungle, mice is right, You 341 00:18:22,800 --> 00:18:25,400 can do whatever you want. You know, international law, who 342 00:18:25,400 --> 00:18:29,040 cares? It's very difficult to then put 343 00:18:29,040 --> 00:18:32,120 things back on a secure footing, you know, because how do you 344 00:18:32,120 --> 00:18:35,800 then build a secure legal framework to create stability in 345 00:18:35,800 --> 00:18:39,200 the future? I don't think that's the world 346 00:18:39,200 --> 00:18:41,480 we're in yet. I think that's the world that 347 00:18:41,480 --> 00:18:44,040 Pete Hegseth and Donald Trump are trying to create. 348 00:18:44,240 --> 00:18:46,600 I think that's the world that Vladimir Putin would like to 349 00:18:46,600 --> 00:18:49,640 live in. And I think the more that 350 00:18:49,640 --> 00:18:53,160 powerful countries act as if international law doesn't 351 00:18:53,160 --> 00:18:56,160 matter, the less it will. I never said that we would get 352 00:18:56,160 --> 00:19:00,200 Security Council authorization. What I said is that countries go 353 00:19:00,400 --> 00:19:02,960 and make their case ahead of time. 354 00:19:03,160 --> 00:19:06,480 They lay out the arguments for the use of force. 355 00:19:06,480 --> 00:19:11,000 Otherwise, if the basis for using force is potential 356 00:19:11,000 --> 00:19:13,840 assassination attempts, that turns right back around and 357 00:19:13,840 --> 00:19:16,440 gives other countries a green light to target the United 358 00:19:16,440 --> 00:19:19,320 States. And so we can go down this 359 00:19:19,320 --> 00:19:22,760 rabbit hole of, you know, discarding legal frameworks. 360 00:19:22,760 --> 00:19:25,760 We also have very clear legal frameworks about the laws that 361 00:19:25,760 --> 00:19:28,720 apply to targeting. And I was reassured to hear 362 00:19:28,720 --> 00:19:32,280 Secretary Higgseth say that the United States does not target 363 00:19:32,280 --> 00:19:35,400 civilians. That's a very important bedrock 364 00:19:35,400 --> 00:19:38,240 principle. And there's absolute be no 365 00:19:38,240 --> 00:19:41,160 reason to throw it out the door. And if we do, the United States 366 00:19:41,320 --> 00:19:45,920 is going to ultimately actually be much the worse for it. 367 00:19:46,440 --> 00:19:49,280 General Sir Richard, can I bring you in here on on the targeting 368 00:19:49,280 --> 00:19:51,440 question? There are two very big incidents 369 00:19:51,440 --> 00:19:53,440 and I wonder how you feel about them as a military man. 370 00:19:53,640 --> 00:19:57,520 There is the school and it's not clear who who hits it, but it 371 00:19:57,520 --> 00:19:59,920 looks like it might have been the Americans, but they say they 372 00:19:59,920 --> 00:20:01,920 weren't targeting it deliberately. 373 00:20:01,920 --> 00:20:05,640 And then there is the ship of Sri Lanka, which was on its way 374 00:20:05,640 --> 00:20:10,480 back from a sort of diplomatic. Exercise with India there's some 375 00:20:10,480 --> 00:20:14,280 suggestion it wasn't even armed and those sailors were killed 376 00:20:14,440 --> 00:20:17,160 how do you feel about those two big incidents well that's. 377 00:20:17,200 --> 00:20:22,160 That's the consequence of war. War is not a clean, clear, clear 378 00:20:22,160 --> 00:20:25,600 cut business. It's a dirty, vile, ruthlessly 379 00:20:25,600 --> 00:20:32,280 brutal, violent exercise and and sinking a ship and and and and 380 00:20:32,280 --> 00:20:36,240 collateral damage or a failure to target correctly and, and if 381 00:20:36,240 --> 00:20:39,440 there's you know, and and and and destroying the school. 382 00:20:39,440 --> 00:20:42,280 If that was the case, other consequence of launching 383 00:20:42,520 --> 00:20:46,400 launching an attack on a scale along the lines of the one we 384 00:20:46,400 --> 00:20:49,600 are just witnessing. And if I may just pick up one of 385 00:20:49,600 --> 00:20:52,240 the tread carefully into the legal world. 386 00:20:52,240 --> 00:20:55,400 Of course, the national security of the United States has stated 387 00:20:55,400 --> 00:20:59,280 quite explicitly that the international rules based order 388 00:21:00,000 --> 00:21:05,400 is a cloud based abstraction. That says to me that that law 389 00:21:05,400 --> 00:21:08,280 doesn't matter, that might is right, and that's the end of it. 390 00:21:08,280 --> 00:21:11,680 That's the end of it I regret. I have another interview so I 391 00:21:11,680 --> 00:21:13,600 have to run, but it's nice to be with you all. 392 00:21:13,680 --> 00:21:15,200 I enjoyed this debate. OK. 393 00:21:15,200 --> 00:21:16,960 Thank. Thank you, Fred Flights for 394 00:21:16,960 --> 00:21:18,240 joining us. I'm sorry you have to go, but 395 00:21:18,240 --> 00:21:20,520 thank you for your time. Professor Keitner, what is the 396 00:21:20,520 --> 00:21:23,600 legality of these two big incidents that you can see so 397 00:21:23,600 --> 00:21:26,240 far? We would need more facts in 398 00:21:26,240 --> 00:21:31,160 order to determine for sure. As Richard says, mistakes do 399 00:21:31,160 --> 00:21:33,720 happen in war. The targeting of the boat, it 400 00:21:33,760 --> 00:21:36,640 was was clearly not a mistake. The targeting of the school 401 00:21:36,640 --> 00:21:40,120 appears to have been. But I, I was concerned about 402 00:21:40,120 --> 00:21:43,720 hearing this might makes right. And again, I, I don't understand 403 00:21:43,720 --> 00:21:47,400 you to have been advocating that, but simply stating what 404 00:21:47,400 --> 00:21:49,240 you perceive to be the current reality. 405 00:21:49,440 --> 00:21:53,440 I mean, NATO troops, every country's troops are trained 406 00:21:53,920 --> 00:21:57,600 meticulously in the laws of war, the laws of armed armed 407 00:21:57,600 --> 00:22:01,360 conflict. And a war is never humane. 408 00:22:01,600 --> 00:22:06,280 But we have long predating the United Nations system, very 409 00:22:06,280 --> 00:22:10,720 clear parameters for targeting, particularly because civilians 410 00:22:10,720 --> 00:22:13,680 can so often be the victims of war. 411 00:22:13,680 --> 00:22:17,680 And So what I would like to see from the United States again, 412 00:22:18,080 --> 00:22:22,120 and this is something that prior administrations have done, 413 00:22:22,120 --> 00:22:24,840 whether or not you agree with the rationales they've put 414 00:22:24,840 --> 00:22:29,280 forward, they have been very transparent or tried to be in 415 00:22:29,280 --> 00:22:32,600 terms of explaining what happened, how it happened, and 416 00:22:32,600 --> 00:22:34,320 then what they can do better next time. 417 00:22:34,320 --> 00:22:37,200 And so I think what the public deserves, both the Iranian 418 00:22:37,200 --> 00:22:41,600 public and all of those watching from around the world, are 419 00:22:41,600 --> 00:22:45,080 explanations. And those explanations are going 420 00:22:45,080 --> 00:22:47,720 to go a long way towards reassuring people that there 421 00:22:47,720 --> 00:22:52,040 actually is some sort of plan here, some sort of long term 422 00:22:52,040 --> 00:22:54,760 vision. Or it's going to reinforce the 423 00:22:54,760 --> 00:22:58,840 perception that I think so many of us observers have that this 424 00:22:58,840 --> 00:23:03,800 is wildly out of if I. May make it 100% clear that when 425 00:23:03,800 --> 00:23:07,880 I say that the National security strategy, this is the American 426 00:23:07,880 --> 00:23:11,240 National Security Strategy recently published describing 427 00:23:11,240 --> 00:23:14,160 the international rules based order as a cloud based 428 00:23:14,160 --> 00:23:16,360 abstraction, that is not my view. 429 00:23:16,720 --> 00:23:22,000 I have a soldier and they and and and the law of unconflict, 430 00:23:22,000 --> 00:23:26,440 the Geneva Convention are all fundamental to the whole issue 431 00:23:26,440 --> 00:23:32,080 of just war theory and the way this ghastly phenomenon of war 432 00:23:32,400 --> 00:23:36,920 can somehow be, if not controlled, at least ensure that 433 00:23:36,920 --> 00:23:41,640 the innocent do not suffer. But as soon as you start talking 434 00:23:41,640 --> 00:23:43,640 about the international rules based order being an 435 00:23:43,640 --> 00:23:47,200 abstraction, you're effectively divorcing yourselves from the 436 00:23:47,200 --> 00:23:49,960 framework of the law of armed conflict on the Geneva 437 00:23:49,960 --> 00:23:52,280 Convention. And that is a very dangerous 438 00:23:52,280 --> 00:23:54,880 slippery slope the Americans are going down by doing so. 439 00:23:55,520 --> 00:23:57,760 Because obviously British troops are being drawn in. 440 00:23:58,000 --> 00:24:01,240 They're flying defensive missions rather than offensive 441 00:24:01,240 --> 00:24:03,000 missions. I don't know what the difference 442 00:24:03,400 --> 00:24:07,520 in, in real terms is. If they're shooting at, you 443 00:24:07,520 --> 00:24:10,720 know, it's Iranian missiles and potentially positions in the in 444 00:24:10,720 --> 00:24:14,000 the future. What do you think? 445 00:24:14,120 --> 00:24:16,840 What do you think the British position should be in the next 446 00:24:16,840 --> 00:24:20,440 weeks? Well, this is the opportunity to 447 00:24:20,480 --> 00:24:24,400 pick up the line that Prime Minister Mark Carney of Canada 448 00:24:24,880 --> 00:24:29,720 articulated so inspiringly in a way at Davos a couple of months 449 00:24:29,720 --> 00:24:34,320 ago now when he talked about about the, yeah, the 450 00:24:34,400 --> 00:24:37,120 international rules based order may be fractured. 451 00:24:37,960 --> 00:24:40,920 He talked about the rupture with the United States and he talked 452 00:24:40,920 --> 00:24:45,240 about the need for the middle powers to come together on a 453 00:24:45,240 --> 00:24:47,720 sort of pragmatic, values based approach. 454 00:24:48,520 --> 00:24:50,280 And the middle ploughs are involved here. 455 00:24:50,600 --> 00:24:53,840 And this was the opportunity for Canada, for Germany, for 456 00:24:53,840 --> 00:24:57,840 Australia, for France, for Italy, other European powers to 457 00:24:57,840 --> 00:25:02,280 come together to protect their interests in the Gulf, to 458 00:25:02,280 --> 00:25:05,960 protect and to support their Gulf allies, but not to get 459 00:25:05,960 --> 00:25:07,880 involved in the prosecution of the war. 460 00:25:08,040 --> 00:25:10,760 Now it's got much more complicated because if there are 461 00:25:10,760 --> 00:25:15,560 Iranian drones flying against British bases in Cyprus, then 462 00:25:15,560 --> 00:25:20,000 you get the whole principle of self defence comes in and there 463 00:25:20,000 --> 00:25:22,560 is a right to self defence. And if self defence means 464 00:25:23,000 --> 00:25:26,600 targeting the missile launchers from which those drones or 465 00:25:26,600 --> 00:25:29,240 missiles are launched, well that is a complication. 466 00:25:29,680 --> 00:25:33,760 But I would try and put as much Clearwater as possible between 467 00:25:34,280 --> 00:25:38,640 that role of self defence, that mission of self defence and 468 00:25:38,640 --> 00:25:41,040 engaging with America and Israel. 469 00:25:41,040 --> 00:25:44,680 Because I said, I said earlier, at the end of the day, Trump's 470 00:25:44,680 --> 00:25:48,320 going to walk away from this. And anybody who has worked 471 00:25:48,320 --> 00:25:52,480 alongside and been part of that US Israeli coalition will be 472 00:25:52,480 --> 00:25:55,200 left owning the problem. And there's going to be a 473 00:25:55,200 --> 00:25:58,000 problem for generations to come as a consequence of this. 474 00:25:58,240 --> 00:26:00,000 Do you do? You think, do you wonder what 475 00:26:00,000 --> 00:26:06,120 they've learned from Iraq? No, clearly not, clearly not. 476 00:26:06,120 --> 00:26:08,120 And that's the point I'm making again and again. 477 00:26:08,120 --> 00:26:11,800 But yet again we see a war of choice. 478 00:26:11,800 --> 00:26:15,560 No clear strategy, no understanding of the cultural 479 00:26:15,560 --> 00:26:19,960 implication, no real effort, no effort to try and build any form 480 00:26:19,960 --> 00:26:23,360 of civil society. Reach out to civil society, no 481 00:26:23,360 --> 00:26:27,240 effort to protect the people. And, and, and this has and, and 482 00:26:27,320 --> 00:26:30,640 and you know, you're your your previous guest who's left us now 483 00:26:30,640 --> 00:26:33,920 talked about the threat Iraq, Iran has been posing. 484 00:26:33,920 --> 00:26:37,400 And yes, it has been a pernicious, vile terrorist 485 00:26:37,400 --> 00:26:40,160 state. But what is left at the end of 486 00:26:40,160 --> 00:26:44,320 this could be 10 times worse as a consequence. 487 00:26:44,680 --> 00:26:46,800 Well, and. Just to to echo that Davos 488 00:26:46,800 --> 00:26:50,480 speech, I think I've been very disappointed to see the Canadian 489 00:26:50,480 --> 00:26:53,680 government throw its support behind the United States in the 490 00:26:53,680 --> 00:26:56,760 absence at this point of a direct threat to Canada. 491 00:26:57,080 --> 00:27:02,240 As Sir Richard says, I think the UK is in a much tougher position 492 00:27:02,240 --> 00:27:05,240 because of some of Iran's recent targeting, which by the way, 493 00:27:05,240 --> 00:27:08,480 also very much violates international law to be 494 00:27:08,480 --> 00:27:10,920 targeting countries that are not part of this or the 495 00:27:10,920 --> 00:27:14,960 installations of countries that are not part of this attack on 496 00:27:15,000 --> 00:27:17,680 Iran to begin with. And the UK absolutely does have 497 00:27:17,920 --> 00:27:20,080 a right of self-defense against those attacks. 498 00:27:20,080 --> 00:27:26,040 So this is precisely the concern that we have about the out the 499 00:27:26,040 --> 00:27:29,680 ripple effects of the United States starting something that 500 00:27:29,680 --> 00:27:35,400 is as you opened this podcast with it really has not shown any 501 00:27:35,400 --> 00:27:37,440 path towards how this could finish. 502 00:27:37,840 --> 00:27:39,160 I mean. In terms of how it could finish, 503 00:27:39,160 --> 00:27:42,120 I suppose Donald Trump is again talking about how he wants to 504 00:27:42,120 --> 00:27:45,640 choose the Iranian leadership in the future. 505 00:27:46,160 --> 00:27:48,640 I mean, how can there be any sort of legal basis for that 506 00:27:49,080 --> 00:27:50,920 there? Isn't certainly. 507 00:27:50,920 --> 00:27:55,240 If there were to be a negotiated peace settlement that could 508 00:27:55,240 --> 00:27:59,160 involve various prongs, it could involve United Nations 509 00:27:59,160 --> 00:28:01,720 peacekeepers. We've seen what different 510 00:28:01,720 --> 00:28:04,280 arrangements there are for post conflict societies. 511 00:28:04,280 --> 00:28:09,320 But just one more indication of the lack of forethought here is 512 00:28:09,320 --> 00:28:11,720 that we've been told that a number of folks the United 513 00:28:11,720 --> 00:28:15,120 States had in mind as potential success successors, again, not 514 00:28:15,120 --> 00:28:18,800 for the United States to choose, were also killed in the initial 515 00:28:18,800 --> 00:28:21,800 wave of bombing. And so, like Sir Richard, I'm 516 00:28:21,800 --> 00:28:24,680 extraordinarily concerned about what we're going to see 517 00:28:24,840 --> 00:28:27,440 internally. And it is not for any other 518 00:28:27,440 --> 00:28:30,560 country to determine what the Iranian regime will be. 519 00:28:30,560 --> 00:28:34,880 It is for other countries to identify threats, to push back 520 00:28:34,880 --> 00:28:38,560 with all lawful means against those threats, and to support 521 00:28:39,000 --> 00:28:43,480 democracy in Iran again through lawful means, led by the people 522 00:28:43,480 --> 00:28:46,600 who are, who are actually there and who are actually affected by 523 00:28:46,600 --> 00:28:50,800 this regime's actions just. Finally, Sir Richard, can I ask 524 00:28:50,800 --> 00:28:53,040 you what you make of the communications and the language 525 00:28:53,440 --> 00:28:54,920 around this? I don't know whether you've seen 526 00:28:54,920 --> 00:28:57,840 any of the Internet stuff that the White House is pushing out, 527 00:28:57,840 --> 00:29:01,360 but clips of Hollywood films, lots of sort of, you know, gung 528 00:29:01,360 --> 00:29:07,720 ho clips, you know, pictures of bombs to music, Hex F talking 529 00:29:07,720 --> 00:29:13,080 about Iran being toast. Has all dignity gone out the 530 00:29:13,080 --> 00:29:14,160 window? Yes. 531 00:29:14,760 --> 00:29:17,120 It's tasteless in the extreme. The. 532 00:29:17,120 --> 00:29:20,960 Callousness and and nonchalance with which President Trump has 533 00:29:20,960 --> 00:29:26,240 discussed both US fatalities, past and future is also really 534 00:29:26,240 --> 00:29:31,080 unprecedented, I think and and is very much part and parcel of 535 00:29:31,640 --> 00:29:36,280 the Hollywood ification of what is a real war with real impacts. 536 00:29:36,760 --> 00:29:39,160 Professor. Shimon Keitner, General Sir 537 00:29:39,160 --> 00:29:41,840 Richard Sheriff, thank you very much indeed for joining us. 538 00:29:41,920 --> 00:29:44,240 That's the forecast. Until next time, bye bye.