1 00:00:06,400 --> 00:00:08,480 Hello and welcome to the forecast. 2 00:00:08,600 --> 00:00:12,040 Rachel Reeves, the chancellor, has just given her big growth 3 00:00:12,040 --> 00:00:15,960 speech and yes, she's backed 1/3 runway at Heathrow, expansion of 4 00:00:16,280 --> 00:00:20,560 transport links in the north of England and also an Oxford 5 00:00:20,560 --> 00:00:25,080 Cambridge arc which involves transport, housing, reservoirs 6 00:00:25,360 --> 00:00:28,120 and lots of infrastructure. But when will that growth 7 00:00:28,120 --> 00:00:29,560 arrive? Will it be enough? 8 00:00:29,560 --> 00:00:32,520 And will it solve Labour's political problems on the 9 00:00:32,600 --> 00:00:37,040 economy, which are quite deep seven months into their term of 10 00:00:37,040 --> 00:00:39,800 government? Joining me today are the 11 00:00:39,800 --> 00:00:43,440 economist and former adviser to George Osborne when he was 12 00:00:43,440 --> 00:00:47,720 chancellor, Rupert Harrison and from King's College, Cambridge, 13 00:00:47,760 --> 00:00:49,760 and the Financial Times, Gillian Tett. 14 00:00:50,200 --> 00:00:53,280 Let's put aside the politics for a second from the economics and 15 00:00:53,640 --> 00:00:57,320 get your instinctive reactions to the announcements in the 16 00:00:57,320 --> 00:01:00,800 speech, Gillian. Well, listen, this is good news 17 00:01:01,040 --> 00:01:06,120 that she's now embarking on a policy shift, or a tweak, as 18 00:01:06,120 --> 00:01:08,880 they like to say. I only wish she'd done that 19 00:01:09,040 --> 00:01:12,000 three months ago. Frankly, I thought the messaging 20 00:01:12,000 --> 00:01:14,760 up until now has been pretty bad for international business. 21 00:01:15,040 --> 00:01:18,280 What we're seeing right now in America is animal spirits 22 00:01:18,280 --> 00:01:22,240 unleashed in a truly extraordinary way, which makes 23 00:01:22,240 --> 00:01:26,520 Europe in general and the UK in particular look pretty dismal by 24 00:01:26,520 --> 00:01:28,720 comparison given the loss of business confidence. 25 00:01:29,120 --> 00:01:31,480 So the fact that they have belatedly realised they need to 26 00:01:31,480 --> 00:01:33,840 do more to unleash and noble spirits is great. 27 00:01:34,240 --> 00:01:37,240 I still think they can go further, but I do welcome the 28 00:01:37,240 --> 00:01:39,760 fact they are shifting now. Rupert. 29 00:01:40,400 --> 00:01:42,440 Yeah, I totally agree. And actually, you know, you say 30 00:01:42,440 --> 00:01:45,000 separate the politics. There isn't a lot of sort of 31 00:01:45,000 --> 00:01:49,200 traditional left right politics in what she's announced today. 32 00:01:49,200 --> 00:01:53,440 There's a lot of local politics and, you know, facing down 33 00:01:53,440 --> 00:01:57,240 interest groups and taking on, you know, locally and nationally 34 00:01:57,240 --> 00:02:00,040 objectors to things like expanding Heathrow on 35 00:02:00,040 --> 00:02:03,240 environmental grounds or building new housing locally. 36 00:02:03,680 --> 00:02:05,840 So there's kind of politics there, but it's not, you know, 37 00:02:05,840 --> 00:02:08,400 this could easily have been a speech of a of a Conservative 38 00:02:08,400 --> 00:02:09,960 chancellor and in many ways should have been. 39 00:02:09,960 --> 00:02:12,040 There's a lot of stuff in here that the last government should 40 00:02:12,040 --> 00:02:14,600 have done. And so if she can deliver on 41 00:02:14,600 --> 00:02:17,880 this stuff, then that is definitely a positive for the 42 00:02:17,880 --> 00:02:19,520 longer term. But Julian's absolutely right 43 00:02:19,520 --> 00:02:23,000 that, you know, it's quite extraordinary to me that this is 44 00:02:23,000 --> 00:02:25,760 coming seven months in when we had an, the whole election 45 00:02:25,760 --> 00:02:28,200 campaign was growth is everything. 46 00:02:28,200 --> 00:02:29,960 We're going to come in with a big growth plan. 47 00:02:30,200 --> 00:02:31,560 And then there was really nothing. 48 00:02:31,560 --> 00:02:33,840 There was sort of nothing there. And it's taken them this long to 49 00:02:33,880 --> 00:02:36,160 kind of cobble this together. In the meantime, a lot of damage 50 00:02:36,160 --> 00:02:39,600 has been done to animal spirits, as Julian says, because tax 51 00:02:39,600 --> 00:02:41,840 rises doom and gloom. And there hasn't been a kind of, 52 00:02:42,200 --> 00:02:45,440 you know, a narrative that the UK was open for business and, 53 00:02:45,440 --> 00:02:48,360 you know, doing the kind of things that that you need to see 54 00:02:48,360 --> 00:02:50,120 to get people excited about investing. 55 00:02:50,600 --> 00:02:53,400 But how does it stack up as a growth plan, Gillian? 56 00:02:53,480 --> 00:02:56,800 I mean, given growth is a problem now and all of these 57 00:02:56,800 --> 00:03:01,000 things are quite long term. I think that the budget that was 58 00:03:01,000 --> 00:03:05,600 announced was quite damaging for the growth messaging because for 59 00:03:05,600 --> 00:03:08,360 two reasons. Firstly, that instead of simply 60 00:03:08,360 --> 00:03:11,400 having simple income tax cuts that they had foolishly ruled 61 00:03:11,400 --> 00:03:15,640 out putting essentially this burden on business through the 62 00:03:15,640 --> 00:03:19,400 National Insurance contributions and also introducing these 63 00:03:19,400 --> 00:03:23,200 number of measures that is scaring away growth capital. 64 00:03:23,200 --> 00:03:26,040 And if you like financial entrepreneurs and financial 65 00:03:26,040 --> 00:03:29,480 investors from London right now, and I know a number of them who 66 00:03:29,480 --> 00:03:33,160 are leaving as we speak, was very, very damaging overall. 67 00:03:33,280 --> 00:03:35,640 She hasn't talked about reversing that sadly yet. 68 00:03:35,720 --> 00:03:38,240 I wish she would, but she hasn't talked about that. 69 00:03:38,240 --> 00:03:40,920 And I do think that's definitely something dragging down the 70 00:03:40,960 --> 00:03:43,480 animal spirits amongst financiers and entrepreneurs and 71 00:03:43,480 --> 00:03:46,440 investors talking about things like the Oxford, Cambridge Link, 72 00:03:46,640 --> 00:03:49,680 Heathrow expansion, house building, getting better water 73 00:03:49,680 --> 00:03:52,680 infrastructure, that's all fabulous, but it's also a long 74 00:03:52,680 --> 00:03:54,560 term project. It's not going to happen 75 00:03:54,560 --> 00:03:56,880 quickly. And so one of the problems is 76 00:03:56,960 --> 00:03:58,760 knowing how quickly this will come through. 77 00:03:59,000 --> 00:04:02,880 So good they are at least trying to kick start animal spirits, 78 00:04:02,880 --> 00:04:05,880 but they need to do more. Rupert, what, what could they do 79 00:04:05,880 --> 00:04:09,480 right now to, you know, to release the animal spirits as 80 00:04:09,520 --> 00:04:11,800 Gillian talks about them? I mean, is there much, you know, 81 00:04:11,800 --> 00:04:12,800 there? Are there many options? 82 00:04:13,520 --> 00:04:16,800 Well, there aren't very many options that don't involve a 83 00:04:16,839 --> 00:04:19,760 sort of political reversal of things that they've done or are 84 00:04:19,760 --> 00:04:22,000 doing. So, you know, you could reverse 85 00:04:22,000 --> 00:04:23,680 the employee National Insurance rise. 86 00:04:24,120 --> 00:04:27,280 That's pretty unlikely. As Gillian says, You know, if 87 00:04:27,280 --> 00:04:30,000 you were going to have raised taxes, and I think that they, 88 00:04:30,000 --> 00:04:31,840 you know, there were, there were probably preferable 89 00:04:31,840 --> 00:04:33,280 alternatives. But if you wanted to raise 90 00:04:33,280 --> 00:04:35,640 taxes, it would definitely be better to do something like 91 00:04:35,640 --> 00:04:37,720 income tax or VAT from an economic point of view because 92 00:04:37,720 --> 00:04:42,080 there'd be much less distortion, much less reduction of incentive 93 00:04:42,080 --> 00:04:43,920 to higher. So the employer next rise was 94 00:04:43,920 --> 00:04:46,080 kind of almost the worst possible tax you could choose. 95 00:04:46,520 --> 00:04:49,000 There are other things they are doing that again would be a 96 00:04:49,000 --> 00:04:52,440 question reversing. So I think they've pushed some 97 00:04:53,080 --> 00:04:56,400 of the things around the non Dom regime too far that is pushing 98 00:04:56,680 --> 00:05:00,040 people out of the country. The labour market reforms that 99 00:05:00,200 --> 00:05:03,680 are promised, they are large parts of those are going to be 100 00:05:03,680 --> 00:05:06,000 very negative for business sentiment and for recruitment, I 101 00:05:06,000 --> 00:05:07,560 think. And again, that's a difficult 102 00:05:07,560 --> 00:05:10,360 thing to reverse on. So, you know, there's there's 103 00:05:10,360 --> 00:05:12,920 not very much they can do short term that isn't a question of 104 00:05:12,920 --> 00:05:14,720 sort of reversing stuff they'd already done. 105 00:05:15,160 --> 00:05:18,400 They she could in the budget. Yeah, or not, sorry, the spring 106 00:05:18,400 --> 00:05:19,760 statement is not going to be a budget. 107 00:05:19,760 --> 00:05:23,080 But if she does have to to tweak her spending plans anyway she 108 00:05:23,080 --> 00:05:25,240 should, she could come back with something that was more growth 109 00:05:25,240 --> 00:05:27,720 friendly around corporation tax, around incentives for 110 00:05:27,720 --> 00:05:29,760 entrepreneurs, around capital gains tax. 111 00:05:30,840 --> 00:05:32,840 You know, maybe she can find money to do that. 112 00:05:33,320 --> 00:05:37,200 But, you know, the truth is that in the short term, you know, as 113 00:05:37,240 --> 00:05:40,240 as all chancellors, certainly over the next 12 months, she is 114 00:05:40,240 --> 00:05:43,640 really at the mercy of the global economic cycle at 115 00:05:43,640 --> 00:05:46,240 whether, you know, if there is a kind of boom in the US, can that 116 00:05:46,240 --> 00:05:48,440 lift Europe and the UK out of the doldrums? 117 00:05:49,440 --> 00:05:51,280 What is the Bank of England going to do? 118 00:05:51,280 --> 00:05:53,800 Are we going to get some relief on inflation and can that lead 119 00:05:53,800 --> 00:05:56,120 to interest rate cuts? Those things are probably all 120 00:05:56,400 --> 00:05:57,760 all of which are outside of her control. 121 00:05:57,760 --> 00:06:00,240 They're probably more important for what is going to happen over 122 00:06:00,240 --> 00:06:02,640 the next 12 months. And if she were going to do 123 00:06:02,640 --> 00:06:06,040 anything immediate to help business in in the spring by 124 00:06:06,040 --> 00:06:08,920 giving them some money back, effectively she'd have to find, 125 00:06:08,920 --> 00:06:10,880 you know, she'd have to cut something when she she'd have to 126 00:06:10,880 --> 00:06:13,000 cut spending. Yeah, she'd have to reduce her 127 00:06:13,000 --> 00:06:16,280 spending envelope that she has set for the spending review 128 00:06:16,280 --> 00:06:18,640 either over the three years that they're going to set out 129 00:06:18,640 --> 00:06:21,720 departmental budgets or the years after that, because her 130 00:06:21,720 --> 00:06:24,200 fiscal targets bind in, in the 5th year. 131 00:06:25,720 --> 00:06:28,360 The, The, the problem with, if she only does it at the end of 132 00:06:28,360 --> 00:06:30,920 the, of the period, the problem then is one of credibility 133 00:06:30,920 --> 00:06:32,600 because it's basically saying we're going to massively 134 00:06:32,600 --> 00:06:34,920 increase public spending in years 1-2 and three. 135 00:06:34,920 --> 00:06:37,040 And then we're going to be very, very tight with public spending 136 00:06:37,040 --> 00:06:39,600 in years 4:00 and 5:00. And, you know, governments have 137 00:06:39,800 --> 00:06:43,360 done that before and, and you know, everyone will question, 138 00:06:43,360 --> 00:06:45,760 well, you you say that, but is that really likely to happen? 139 00:06:46,240 --> 00:06:48,520 I mean, Julian, in terms of optimism, I mean when you talk 140 00:06:48,520 --> 00:06:52,560 about the change in mood in America, I suppose what Labour 141 00:06:52,560 --> 00:06:55,800 is trying to do here is set a new mood and saying we're we're 142 00:06:55,800 --> 00:06:57,720 doing all the things that needed to be done. 143 00:06:58,240 --> 00:07:00,960 This is going to set Britain on a new trajectory and to try and 144 00:07:00,960 --> 00:07:06,280 lift optimism and spirits. I mean, does that work or or is 145 00:07:06,280 --> 00:07:09,720 business more short term? The core problem is right now is 146 00:07:09,720 --> 00:07:12,840 that in America you have a group of people who've either been in 147 00:07:12,840 --> 00:07:15,960 business or been start up entrepreneurs essentially 148 00:07:15,960 --> 00:07:18,360 running the government and setting the tone so they know 149 00:07:18,360 --> 00:07:21,080 what they need to do and say to actually appeal to business. 150 00:07:21,080 --> 00:07:25,280 And they basically scream from the rooftops that America's open 151 00:07:25,280 --> 00:07:27,320 for business, They'll do whatever it takes to help 152 00:07:27,320 --> 00:07:30,080 business flourish and grow. And that is a number one 153 00:07:30,080 --> 00:07:32,560 priority. The problem with the UK right 154 00:07:32,560 --> 00:07:35,880 now is that not only do we not have a group of business people 155 00:07:35,880 --> 00:07:38,600 running the government, but so much the messaging in the first 156 00:07:38,600 --> 00:07:41,160 few months was not the kind of thing that businesses and 157 00:07:41,160 --> 00:07:43,320 investors and entrepreneurs want to hear. 158 00:07:43,440 --> 00:07:46,920 Sitting here in Cambridge where there's incredible intellectual 159 00:07:46,920 --> 00:07:52,600 capital around AI, quantum life sciences, green tech, all the 160 00:07:52,600 --> 00:07:55,240 sectors that are going to grow the economy in the future, we 161 00:07:55,240 --> 00:07:58,200 think and hope. Sitting here surrounded by all 162 00:07:58,200 --> 00:08:00,920 these wannabe entrepreneurs, you know, at the Entrepreneurship 163 00:08:00,920 --> 00:08:03,800 Lab Kings and elsewhere across the city, who are just desperate 164 00:08:03,800 --> 00:08:05,480 to get out and start building things. 165 00:08:05,760 --> 00:08:09,560 What they need to see is both a really strong message of support 166 00:08:09,560 --> 00:08:12,960 and championing what they're trying to do and recognizing 167 00:08:12,960 --> 00:08:16,400 that wealth creation, building companies, actually creating 168 00:08:16,400 --> 00:08:18,120 innovative platforms is a good thing. 169 00:08:18,320 --> 00:08:22,000 We need to be screaming from our rooftops about what we have in 170 00:08:22,000 --> 00:08:24,040 Britain, both Oxford and Cambridge and all the other 171 00:08:24,040 --> 00:08:27,920 amazing universities, and talking about it really loudly. 172 00:08:28,520 --> 00:08:30,800 And we need to be putting in measures that actually encourage 173 00:08:30,800 --> 00:08:33,880 people to want to build businesses here and to stay 174 00:08:33,880 --> 00:08:35,480 here. Because at the moment, one of 175 00:08:35,480 --> 00:08:38,240 the biggest problems is that we have this brilliant brainpower 176 00:08:38,240 --> 00:08:41,440 in Oxford, Cambridge and elsewhere that create start-ups, 177 00:08:41,640 --> 00:08:45,640 but then they go to America and breaking that cycle is going to 178 00:08:45,640 --> 00:08:47,520 be absolutely critical going forward. 179 00:08:48,080 --> 00:08:51,080 So, so I mean the, the Oxford Cambridge arc, which she's 180 00:08:51,080 --> 00:08:54,520 announcing today, I mean that that doesn't do it for you. 181 00:08:54,960 --> 00:08:57,000 No, I think it's a fantastic first step. 182 00:08:57,200 --> 00:09:00,440 Thank heavens they're talking about actually putting in money 183 00:09:00,440 --> 00:09:03,440 and getting that rail link ASAP, because that's an obvious no 184 00:09:03,440 --> 00:09:05,040 brainer that needs to happen very quickly. 185 00:09:05,400 --> 00:09:08,920 Thank heavens they recognize this appallingly embarrassing 186 00:09:08,920 --> 00:09:12,080 impediment for Cambridge, which is in a country where it rains 187 00:09:12,080 --> 00:09:15,160 the whole darn time. We don't have enough water to 188 00:09:15,160 --> 00:09:17,680 actually in the reservoirs to actually build more housing. 189 00:09:17,960 --> 00:09:20,200 This is a fundamental infrastructure problem. 190 00:09:20,560 --> 00:09:23,080 And if only we looked at places like the Middle East right now. 191 00:09:23,080 --> 00:09:26,360 And so it's all, say, Saudi Arabia's doing with all of its 192 00:09:26,360 --> 00:09:29,440 desalinization techniques and how quickly they're getting the 193 00:09:29,440 --> 00:09:32,640 deserts to bloom by getting water to the places that needs 194 00:09:32,640 --> 00:09:34,560 it. You know, if we looked at that, 195 00:09:34,680 --> 00:09:37,360 we should be asking why can't we just quickly get the reservoir 196 00:09:37,360 --> 00:09:40,320 situation sorted out in Cambridge to enable the city to 197 00:09:40,320 --> 00:09:42,240 boom? There are so many infrastructure 198 00:09:42,240 --> 00:09:45,920 projects which could and should happen really quickly with 199 00:09:45,920 --> 00:09:48,000 determination which are critical. 200 00:09:48,320 --> 00:09:51,600 And if those could actually be implemented quickly using 201 00:09:51,600 --> 00:09:54,240 central government power if necessary to breakthrough a lot 202 00:09:54,240 --> 00:09:57,320 of the regulatory obstacles, that would send a really 203 00:09:57,320 --> 00:10:00,400 powerful signal that the government actually means it 204 00:10:00,400 --> 00:10:03,680 when they want to create the conditions for enabling business 205 00:10:03,680 --> 00:10:06,960 to flourish. And sitting in Cambridge using 206 00:10:06,960 --> 00:10:10,360 our brilliant intellectual riches that we have, these are 207 00:10:10,360 --> 00:10:13,080 world beating riches. We've got some of the best 208 00:10:13,080 --> 00:10:15,920 talent in the the world sitting in our universities. 209 00:10:16,120 --> 00:10:19,040 We need to find a way to get that moving as fast as we can. 210 00:10:19,400 --> 00:10:20,880 I. Mean you you sound like you you 211 00:10:20,880 --> 00:10:25,440 you do agree with that criticism of government that it that it 212 00:10:25,440 --> 00:10:28,720 doesn't in some way really understand business that the 213 00:10:28,720 --> 00:10:32,640 levers it's using are about, you know, infrastructure transports 214 00:10:33,480 --> 00:10:36,120 and you know, is that what you're saying that they're 215 00:10:36,120 --> 00:10:38,080 they're not really getting it It's. 216 00:10:38,080 --> 00:10:42,200 Both I saw some of the business leaders in Davos last week and 217 00:10:42,200 --> 00:10:45,240 they were doing a dramatically better job now of trying to sell 218 00:10:45,240 --> 00:10:48,120 Britain to the global business and investing community. 219 00:10:48,480 --> 00:10:52,440 And so IA 1000% salute what they're trying to do in terms of 220 00:10:52,440 --> 00:10:55,400 getting things moving. And I just wish they would hurry 221 00:10:55,400 --> 00:10:58,560 up, deal with more force. And I hate to say this, but, you 222 00:10:58,560 --> 00:11:01,240 know, I think Britain really has to learn to hustle. 223 00:11:01,760 --> 00:11:04,360 And there's so many bad things about America right now that we 224 00:11:04,360 --> 00:11:06,600 don't want to borrow. But I think one thing Britain 225 00:11:06,600 --> 00:11:09,840 has to do is be a little bit less British about hustling on 226 00:11:09,840 --> 00:11:12,680 the global stage if it wants to get the business to really 227 00:11:12,680 --> 00:11:14,520 believe it's open for business right now. 228 00:11:14,520 --> 00:11:15,760 I. Mean Is that possible? 229 00:11:15,920 --> 00:11:17,480 Is the Treasury capable of hustling? 230 00:11:17,800 --> 00:11:19,480 It is possible I. Think the British government has 231 00:11:19,480 --> 00:11:21,440 in the past done that. I mean, I, I would say this 232 00:11:21,440 --> 00:11:22,520 because I was a part of the government. 233 00:11:22,520 --> 00:11:25,680 But if you go back to the the the government between 2010, two 234 00:11:25,680 --> 00:11:30,000 1015, that that government came in with a very similar sort of 235 00:11:31,080 --> 00:11:33,320 political message, which was of course kind of blaming its 236 00:11:33,320 --> 00:11:35,920 predecessor for the state of the public finances and a kind of 237 00:11:35,920 --> 00:11:39,360 focus on reducing the deficit. But there was also a clear plan 238 00:11:39,360 --> 00:11:40,720 to say Britain's open for business. 239 00:11:40,720 --> 00:11:44,200 We had a corporate tax road map which was pre committing to 240 00:11:44,200 --> 00:11:46,560 reduce corporation tax over a series of years. 241 00:11:46,880 --> 00:11:49,600 There were reductions in the cost of employing people and the 242 00:11:49,600 --> 00:11:51,400 hustle. There was like trade missions, 243 00:11:51,400 --> 00:11:53,880 big focus on kind of overseas deals. 244 00:11:53,880 --> 00:11:56,000 There was something called the Great Britain campaign where we 245 00:11:56,000 --> 00:11:58,920 actually put a huge amount of resource and people and 246 00:11:58,920 --> 00:12:01,640 celebrity into kind of advertising that Britain was 247 00:12:01,640 --> 00:12:03,360 open for business. And you might think that this is 248 00:12:03,800 --> 00:12:06,000 a bit superficial, but it actually all adds up. 249 00:12:06,440 --> 00:12:09,280 And I think that businesses don't. 250 00:12:09,520 --> 00:12:13,560 Businesses understand that these things have long lead times and 251 00:12:13,560 --> 00:12:16,280 that investment takes a while to pay off because that's what they 252 00:12:16,280 --> 00:12:18,520 see in their own businesses. You've got businesses in the UK 253 00:12:18,520 --> 00:12:21,160 where their investment cycle is 10/15/20 years. 254 00:12:21,560 --> 00:12:23,800 So they understand that the problem is you've got to see the 255 00:12:23,800 --> 00:12:25,320 pipeline. It's got to be credible. 256 00:12:25,320 --> 00:12:28,200 So doing these things takes a long time, but if you've got a 257 00:12:28,200 --> 00:12:30,880 clear plan on infrastructure, if you're doing good things around 258 00:12:30,880 --> 00:12:33,800 regulation, if you're investing in skills, if you're saying 259 00:12:33,800 --> 00:12:36,480 we're open for business, if you're setting a tax regime that 260 00:12:36,480 --> 00:12:39,680 attracts globally mobile entrepreneurs says if you're, if 261 00:12:39,680 --> 00:12:42,320 you're sorting out your capital market so that a successful 262 00:12:42,320 --> 00:12:45,360 business can actually list in London instead of having to go 263 00:12:45,360 --> 00:12:49,920 to to the NASDAQ, You know, that that kind of package, even 264 00:12:49,920 --> 00:12:53,440 though a lot of the, you know, actual impacts on growth might 265 00:12:53,440 --> 00:12:56,960 take five, 10-15 years. That can create a sense in the 266 00:12:56,960 --> 00:12:59,200 business community that OK, the UK is getting it's act together, 267 00:12:59,200 --> 00:13:01,400 it's serious, and then you can start to get the investments 268 00:13:01,400 --> 00:13:03,640 flowing. So, you know, it does, it does. 269 00:13:03,640 --> 00:13:06,640 There's a sort of as well as tackling the tough decisions and 270 00:13:06,640 --> 00:13:10,040 actually delivering on what you say, there is a sort of, you 271 00:13:10,040 --> 00:13:13,480 know, sales element to this. And can I just say that, I mean, 272 00:13:13,480 --> 00:13:17,880 for me, aside from what happened after 2010, the first decade or 273 00:13:17,880 --> 00:13:21,440 the until between 2000 and 2007 or so, there was this whole 274 00:13:21,440 --> 00:13:24,640 mantra of Cool Britannia. And there was a real sense on 275 00:13:24,640 --> 00:13:27,520 the international stage that London was a fantastically cool, 276 00:13:27,520 --> 00:13:30,520 trendy place to be and the rest of the country by default. 277 00:13:30,520 --> 00:13:33,880 And we were attracting a lot of talent into the UK then. 278 00:13:34,240 --> 00:13:37,800 And I think we desperately need to find this Cool Britannia vibe 279 00:13:37,840 --> 00:13:40,120 again. And in some ways, we have this 280 00:13:40,120 --> 00:13:43,720 amazing opportunity right now. As someone who's spent a large 281 00:13:43,720 --> 00:13:47,000 chunk of the last 15 years in America and talks a lot to 282 00:13:47,000 --> 00:13:50,680 American business leaders and investors, Many people are both 283 00:13:50,680 --> 00:13:53,840 excited about the potential for America's growth right now, but 284 00:13:53,840 --> 00:13:56,600 also pretty scared about the political climate with Donald 285 00:13:56,600 --> 00:13:59,360 Trump in the White House. And there's a real concern that 286 00:13:59,360 --> 00:14:01,680 actually America's over hyped and too expensive. 287 00:14:02,200 --> 00:14:04,640 So there are a number of business people and investors 288 00:14:04,640 --> 00:14:08,040 who want to diversify and hedge away from America. 289 00:14:08,440 --> 00:14:10,520 Where better to do it than the UK? 290 00:14:10,840 --> 00:14:14,200 So we're basically in a race against time against countries 291 00:14:14,200 --> 00:14:17,880 like Singapore, Dubai, Switzerland, to some degree, 292 00:14:17,880 --> 00:14:21,240 Europe, continental Europe. And if we can get our act 293 00:14:21,240 --> 00:14:24,480 together right now and put out our stall as Cool Britannia. 294 00:14:24,880 --> 00:14:28,240 Talk about welcoming in life science groups that are worried 295 00:14:28,240 --> 00:14:32,840 about the potential arrival of Bobby Kennedy Junior at the 296 00:14:32,840 --> 00:14:36,880 health department in the US. If we can pull in, say, the AI 297 00:14:36,880 --> 00:14:40,640 computing people who want to diversify, and green tech, which 298 00:14:40,640 --> 00:14:44,680 of course is getting a big backwards push from the Trump 299 00:14:44,680 --> 00:14:47,480 administration right now. If we can do it, now is the 300 00:14:47,480 --> 00:14:50,800 moment to be absolutely aggressively trying to grab 301 00:14:50,800 --> 00:14:53,520 business away from America because people do want to 302 00:14:53,520 --> 00:14:55,800 diversify. I mean, I suppose that's exactly 303 00:14:55,800 --> 00:14:57,240 what Rachel Rees would say, isn't it? 304 00:14:57,240 --> 00:15:00,880 I mean, isn't that what Rachel Rees would say she's doing by 305 00:15:00,920 --> 00:15:04,280 both deregulation making planning easier, and taking away 306 00:15:04,280 --> 00:15:06,840 the the objections? But she's, you know, she's doing 307 00:15:06,840 --> 00:15:08,760 it after seven months of the reverse, right? 308 00:15:08,760 --> 00:15:10,600 I mean, that's the the problem is that there's been this 309 00:15:10,600 --> 00:15:12,880 incredible negative messaging and then suddenly they're kind 310 00:15:12,880 --> 00:15:14,880 of scrabbling to realise they've they've overdone it. 311 00:15:15,080 --> 00:15:17,160 And there is an opportunity to present the UK as kind of 312 00:15:17,160 --> 00:15:20,520 dynamic, competitive, but also stable and predictable, which I 313 00:15:20,520 --> 00:15:23,520 have historically been British, British, you know, strengths. 314 00:15:23,800 --> 00:15:25,880 We certainly, you know, we undermine some of those 315 00:15:25,880 --> 00:15:29,720 strengths a little bit over the last decade with, you know, sort 316 00:15:29,720 --> 00:15:33,080 of things like Brexit, which was seen as kind of very sudden and 317 00:15:33,080 --> 00:15:36,360 unbusiness friendly decisions. But we still have, you know, 318 00:15:36,800 --> 00:15:39,920 relative to the USA, very functional political system. 319 00:15:39,920 --> 00:15:43,160 We have a legal system that's extremely reliable and you know, 320 00:15:43,160 --> 00:15:44,920 we should be able to retain those benefits. 321 00:15:45,600 --> 00:15:47,920 And I'd also say, by the way, there are things they could do 322 00:15:48,160 --> 00:15:51,360 again to signal like getting the youth mobility visa with the 323 00:15:51,360 --> 00:15:53,800 European Union in place as quickly as possible. 324 00:15:54,400 --> 00:15:57,240 Again, sitting in Cambridge, you know, we have these brilliant 325 00:15:57,240 --> 00:15:58,720 students who want to be able to travel. 326 00:15:58,840 --> 00:16:02,040 We want to also attract the best talent from the continent as 327 00:16:02,040 --> 00:16:04,800 well. And there's a lot that, you 328 00:16:04,800 --> 00:16:07,920 know, wouldn't cost the UKA lot in terms of either economics or 329 00:16:07,920 --> 00:16:11,560 politics, but would go a long way to signal that we're moving. 330 00:16:13,120 --> 00:16:14,400 Let's talk about Heathrow for a second. 331 00:16:14,400 --> 00:16:17,800 I mean for a lot of people this is sort of, it's counter 332 00:16:17,800 --> 00:16:19,960 intuitive. There's a lot of Labour people 333 00:16:19,960 --> 00:16:23,440 in the cabinet who were traditionally opposed to 1/3 334 00:16:23,440 --> 00:16:26,320 runway at Heathrow. Ed Miliband once said it sent 335 00:16:26,320 --> 00:16:29,960 the wrong signal. But now that's all kind of been 336 00:16:29,960 --> 00:16:32,000 swept away by the the push for growth. 337 00:16:32,320 --> 00:16:34,760 And there's this argument that if you can do it all within 338 00:16:35,080 --> 00:16:39,000 Britain's carbon budgets, then there's no there's no problem 339 00:16:39,000 --> 00:16:41,880 with development and there's no problem with aviation. 340 00:16:42,040 --> 00:16:46,240 I mean, first of all, how much of an economic boost is 1/3 341 00:16:46,240 --> 00:16:50,200 runway to to Heathrow? Or is it really about signalling 342 00:16:50,200 --> 00:16:53,400 and messaging? Well, it's a good signal 343 00:16:53,400 --> 00:16:55,200 message. It actually is an important 344 00:16:55,200 --> 00:16:59,000 economic boost because Britain's role is very much as a kind of 345 00:16:59,000 --> 00:17:01,200 entrepreneur, entrepreneur, trading hub. 346 00:17:01,280 --> 00:17:03,480 I mean, you know, in many ways I used to joke that London was 347 00:17:03,480 --> 00:17:06,359 like Constantinople when it was called Britannia because 348 00:17:06,359 --> 00:17:09,319 everyone came here to trade and to do business here. 349 00:17:09,319 --> 00:17:11,880 And that was really powerful. We have a very important 350 00:17:11,880 --> 00:17:14,680 judgment crossroads position in the global economy. 351 00:17:14,960 --> 00:17:18,520 So I think it is important. I do understand the green 352 00:17:18,520 --> 00:17:20,760 concerns. You know, there are a lot of 353 00:17:20,760 --> 00:17:22,839 people who involved in sustainability who will be 354 00:17:23,079 --> 00:17:25,200 disappointed. I would just say, though, that 355 00:17:25,680 --> 00:17:30,960 again, in the UK, we have some of the world's leading research 356 00:17:31,000 --> 00:17:33,880 outfits looking at green aviation and how to get aviation 357 00:17:34,120 --> 00:17:36,320 more sustainable. So I would suggest that if 358 00:17:36,320 --> 00:17:39,000 Rachel Reeves wants to go ahead with this, she should be 359 00:17:39,000 --> 00:17:42,960 simultaneously throwing money at green tech researchers across 360 00:17:42,960 --> 00:17:45,880 the UK that we should feel very proud of to show that we 361 00:17:45,880 --> 00:17:49,600 recognize we need to travel, but we need to also fight to do it 362 00:17:49,600 --> 00:17:52,720 sustainably in the future. I mean, Ripley, are you 363 00:17:52,720 --> 00:17:54,880 surprised at how quiet the opposition is at the moment? 364 00:17:55,800 --> 00:17:57,920 Well, look, they are not going to be quiet. 365 00:17:58,880 --> 00:18:00,360 Look, there's this is going to be a huge row. 366 00:18:00,360 --> 00:18:01,880 It's going to be a huge row within the cabinet. 367 00:18:01,880 --> 00:18:05,360 It's going to be a huge row with the environmental groups. 368 00:18:05,680 --> 00:18:08,520 I mean, on the substance, look, this is this clearly is pro 369 00:18:08,520 --> 00:18:10,560 growth. It's definitely pro growth 370 00:18:10,560 --> 00:18:12,040 directly because you get more activity. 371 00:18:12,040 --> 00:18:14,680 It's also pro growth because the key thing about 1/3 runway and 372 00:18:14,680 --> 00:18:18,480 more flights is that you get more direct flights from the UK 373 00:18:18,480 --> 00:18:19,960 to fast growing parts of the world. 374 00:18:20,280 --> 00:18:22,520 And that means that the UK becomes a much more obvious 375 00:18:22,520 --> 00:18:25,160 place to locate your headquarters or your logistics 376 00:18:25,160 --> 00:18:27,640 hub. And so therefore those direct 377 00:18:27,640 --> 00:18:31,360 flights from the UK are kind of definitely growth positive. 378 00:18:31,360 --> 00:18:33,680 You know, if you're sitting in the treasury about what can move 379 00:18:33,680 --> 00:18:36,600 the dial over the next 1020 thirty years, this definitely 380 00:18:36,600 --> 00:18:39,080 sits in the kind of obvious wins category. 381 00:18:39,400 --> 00:18:42,280 And on the environmental, you know, side, a lot of these 382 00:18:42,280 --> 00:18:45,160 routes, if they don't happen from Heathrow, will happen from 383 00:18:45,160 --> 00:18:50,680 Skipol or Charles de Gaulle or other, you know, airport, other 384 00:18:50,680 --> 00:18:54,560 airports in the EMEA time zone. And so, you know, from a global 385 00:18:54,560 --> 00:18:57,080 emissions point of view, having these in the, having these 386 00:18:57,080 --> 00:18:59,800 routes flying from the UK rather than from someone else from 387 00:18:59,800 --> 00:19:02,240 somewhere else is, is, is neutral, right? 388 00:19:02,240 --> 00:19:05,040 So in terms of the overall climate impact on the world, 389 00:19:05,560 --> 00:19:08,400 this is just the UK beating someone else to it by having a 390 00:19:08,400 --> 00:19:10,920 better airport. The problem is that we have this 391 00:19:10,920 --> 00:19:13,840 kind of unilateralist approach to climate change in the UK, 392 00:19:13,840 --> 00:19:16,040 where we've set these UK carbon budgets. 393 00:19:16,560 --> 00:19:18,840 And the the problem is this is going to increase the carbon 394 00:19:18,840 --> 00:19:20,800 budget for aviation and therefore the government is 395 00:19:20,800 --> 00:19:23,640 going to have to show how it can reduce its carbon budget 396 00:19:23,640 --> 00:19:24,960 elsewhere. And so this is going to put 397 00:19:24,960 --> 00:19:28,360 pressure on delivery for things like home heating, switch to 398 00:19:28,360 --> 00:19:31,920 electric home heating, electric vehicles and transport and 399 00:19:31,920 --> 00:19:34,960 reducing emissions elsewhere. But the true impact of the 400 00:19:34,960 --> 00:19:37,600 Heathrow decision on global warming and climate change 401 00:19:37,600 --> 00:19:40,400 overall will be pretty neutral. It's just that we might as well 402 00:19:40,400 --> 00:19:43,080 have these flights happening from the UK then happening from 403 00:19:43,080 --> 00:19:44,960 another country and giving them the economic boost. 404 00:19:45,480 --> 00:19:47,800 Having everyone who comes through Heathrow being asked to 405 00:19:47,800 --> 00:19:51,640 make a small contribution to green tech research in the UK as 406 00:19:51,640 --> 00:19:53,200 well. Green aviation research. 407 00:19:53,240 --> 00:19:56,520 Let's get moving with sustainable fuels, with electric 408 00:19:56,520 --> 00:20:00,040 batteries, with hydrant power flames and what the Whittle Lab 409 00:20:00,040 --> 00:20:03,000 is doing, which is basically trying to streamline the 410 00:20:03,040 --> 00:20:07,680 friction points around aviation to again cut the emissions 411 00:20:07,920 --> 00:20:10,640 using, by the way, the same techniques they've used to help 412 00:20:10,640 --> 00:20:13,800 the British Cycling team win medals in the Olympics. 413 00:20:14,800 --> 00:20:17,240 I mean, I, I said let's separate the politics. 414 00:20:17,240 --> 00:20:19,040 I think we can bring it in now on this one really. 415 00:20:19,040 --> 00:20:23,960 I mean, because if Labour can deliver this and keep going on 416 00:20:23,960 --> 00:20:27,800 it in a way that the Conservatives couldn't for all 417 00:20:27,800 --> 00:20:31,440 that time, do you think they will get the credit, Rupert? 418 00:20:32,520 --> 00:20:34,560 Yes, I think they will in in two ways. 419 00:20:35,320 --> 00:20:38,160 You know, in the end, it will come down to the reality. 420 00:20:38,160 --> 00:20:40,880 And a lot of this, as I said, is beyond Rachel Reid's control. 421 00:20:40,880 --> 00:20:43,440 So a lot of it will come down to at the next election, can they 422 00:20:43,440 --> 00:20:48,360 point to income growth, inflation under control, jobs 423 00:20:48,360 --> 00:20:51,360 being created and and some of that is in their control, but 424 00:20:51,360 --> 00:20:53,120 some of it is out of their control. 425 00:20:54,000 --> 00:20:57,000 But I also think if you can, there is a sort of credibility 426 00:20:57,000 --> 00:20:59,600 in voters minds that comes with being a government that clearly 427 00:20:59,600 --> 00:21:01,640 can get things done. And that was something that I 428 00:21:01,640 --> 00:21:04,880 think seriously impacted the the sort of tail end of the last 429 00:21:04,880 --> 00:21:07,200 Conservative government where voters increasingly got a sense 430 00:21:07,200 --> 00:21:09,880 that this was a government that just couldn't achieve anything. 431 00:21:10,240 --> 00:21:13,240 You know, it's set out all these ambitions and it all it was 432 00:21:13,240 --> 00:21:15,440 doing was kind of cancelling HS2. 433 00:21:15,720 --> 00:21:18,960 You know, for example, the, the government actually initiated 434 00:21:18,960 --> 00:21:21,200 the Oxford to Cambridge arc. East West Rail was something 435 00:21:21,200 --> 00:21:23,360 that was launched by David Cameron in 2012. 436 00:21:23,680 --> 00:21:25,640 It actually went through. So the constituency that I ran 437 00:21:25,640 --> 00:21:28,040 as a candidate in Bistrom would stop in the last election. 438 00:21:28,280 --> 00:21:29,880 East West Rail goes right through Bista. 439 00:21:30,160 --> 00:21:33,600 There are going to be Oxford to Milton Keynes services happening 440 00:21:33,600 --> 00:21:35,240 this year. So you know, this, this stuff 441 00:21:35,240 --> 00:21:36,360 takes a long time, but it's happening. 442 00:21:36,360 --> 00:21:38,320 The problem was the last government then abandoned the 443 00:21:38,320 --> 00:21:42,720 Oxford Cambridge arc under pressure from local councillors 444 00:21:42,720 --> 00:21:44,800 and MPs because local communities didn't want all the 445 00:21:44,800 --> 00:21:46,720 housing and they were worried about the popularity. 446 00:21:46,720 --> 00:21:48,960 And so it was a government that kept sort of abandoning stuff, 447 00:21:49,280 --> 00:21:52,160 not able to actually deliver change, even if that change is 448 00:21:52,160 --> 00:21:54,440 controversial. And I think if this government 449 00:21:54,440 --> 00:21:56,760 can get to the next election and say, look, we've actually done 450 00:21:56,760 --> 00:22:00,160 stuff that's been on on on sort of the back burner for decades. 451 00:22:00,160 --> 00:22:02,880 We're delivering on Heathrow. We've got, you know, we've 452 00:22:02,880 --> 00:22:05,680 linked up Oxford and Cambridge. We've got growth going in the 453 00:22:05,680 --> 00:22:08,560 north of England because we're investing in, you know, Trans 454 00:22:08,560 --> 00:22:11,200 Pennine, you know, links. All of this stuff might sound a 455 00:22:11,200 --> 00:22:13,840 bit abstract, but I think voters will reward the sense of a 456 00:22:13,840 --> 00:22:15,920 government that is functional getting stuff done. 457 00:22:16,240 --> 00:22:18,960 The challenge is it's just really hard to do that. 458 00:22:18,960 --> 00:22:20,800 It's not just the politics. There's, there's going to be 459 00:22:20,800 --> 00:22:23,760 judicial review, legal challenge process. 460 00:22:24,160 --> 00:22:27,520 You know, there's a lot of giving the speech today is, is 461 00:22:27,520 --> 00:22:29,440 all very well. That's, that's like day one. 462 00:22:29,800 --> 00:22:32,000 There's there's, there's hundreds of days to come of 463 00:22:32,000 --> 00:22:34,680 actually delivering this stuff and showing voters they've got a 464 00:22:34,680 --> 00:22:36,840 functional government that can actually get things done. 465 00:22:37,560 --> 00:22:40,200 I mean, do do you think culturally Britain is ready to 466 00:22:40,200 --> 00:22:43,240 make that shift though, because the planning objections have 467 00:22:43,240 --> 00:22:47,080 traditionally been massive and massive political problems. 468 00:22:47,080 --> 00:22:50,400 You know, do you think this idea that you can sweep away the 469 00:22:50,400 --> 00:22:51,600 objections to. Well, it's about. 470 00:22:51,600 --> 00:22:53,680 Political leadership, I think that the, I think that the 471 00:22:53,680 --> 00:22:56,680 country is ready for the message and you've got a government that 472 00:22:56,680 --> 00:22:58,800 on the face of it has this enormous majority. 473 00:22:58,800 --> 00:23:00,640 So if ever there was a government that would be able to 474 00:23:00,640 --> 00:23:03,360 force this kind of stuff through, it's this government, 475 00:23:03,360 --> 00:23:04,760 right? They do not have to worry about 476 00:23:04,760 --> 00:23:06,000 losing votes in the House of Commons. 477 00:23:06,000 --> 00:23:09,000 And that is a huge benefit. But it's about having the 478 00:23:09,000 --> 00:23:11,720 political leadership and the courage and, and you know, the 479 00:23:11,720 --> 00:23:14,920 conversation in the prime minister's study has got to be, 480 00:23:15,080 --> 00:23:17,840 we have got to deliver Heathrow and not listening to the voices 481 00:23:17,840 --> 00:23:20,360 saying, well, we're worried about losing seats and votes to 482 00:23:20,360 --> 00:23:22,560 the Green Party. You know, you've got to stick to 483 00:23:22,560 --> 00:23:25,960 the goal and then make, you know, have confidence that you 484 00:23:25,960 --> 00:23:28,960 can win the political argument at the next election instead of 485 00:23:29,160 --> 00:23:32,240 just sort of chopping and changing and, and, and all these 486 00:23:32,240 --> 00:23:35,480 sorts of allowing the short term objections to to, to put you off 487 00:23:35,480 --> 00:23:36,880 course. I mean, Julian, there's a, 488 00:23:36,880 --> 00:23:41,640 there's a poll out today that puts reform ahead of Labour. 489 00:23:42,120 --> 00:23:44,120 So, you know, so, so late Labour's got sort of the Green 490 00:23:44,120 --> 00:23:47,960 Party snapping at one end and reform at the other. 491 00:23:48,120 --> 00:23:51,920 I mean, what do you think of this sort of the idea that Keir 492 00:23:51,920 --> 00:23:56,280 Starmer can lead a sort of a cultural shift towards growth 493 00:23:56,280 --> 00:23:58,800 and to unleash animal spirits? I mean, animal spirits and Keir 494 00:23:58,800 --> 00:24:00,840 Starmer are not things that would normally go in the same 495 00:24:00,840 --> 00:24:01,960 sentence, are they? No. 496 00:24:02,080 --> 00:24:05,440 He's trained as a prosecutor, so he's very good at mastering 497 00:24:05,920 --> 00:24:10,120 briefs on a micro level very quickly and understanding 498 00:24:10,120 --> 00:24:12,640 logical sequences to get through a brief and argue it. 499 00:24:12,760 --> 00:24:16,800 But the ideological searing vision stuff isn't something 500 00:24:16,800 --> 00:24:18,120 that natural actually comes to him. 501 00:24:18,560 --> 00:24:21,480 I would argue what you see by the fact that you've got support 502 00:24:21,480 --> 00:24:25,200 for Greens and Reform at the same time is people are hungry, 503 00:24:25,200 --> 00:24:28,280 desperately hungry for a click up vision that they can rally 504 00:24:28,280 --> 00:24:30,520 around and a message about the future. 505 00:24:31,400 --> 00:24:35,240 Green and Reform are each offering a strong vision message 506 00:24:35,240 --> 00:24:37,560 brand that people can understand quickly. 507 00:24:38,240 --> 00:24:41,160 You might hate it and they're radically different, but the 508 00:24:41,200 --> 00:24:44,160 thing that's very clear is just technocratic government alone 509 00:24:44,160 --> 00:24:47,280 doesn't do it right now. You've got to offer people a 510 00:24:47,280 --> 00:24:51,400 really clear cut vision and sign of hope that they can rally 511 00:24:51,400 --> 00:24:55,000 around for the future and a sense of direction for better or 512 00:24:55,000 --> 00:24:56,360 worse. And most people in Britain would 513 00:24:56,360 --> 00:24:59,040 probably say worse, Donald Trump is doing that in America very, 514 00:24:59,040 --> 00:25:02,000 very clearly. Unfortunately, much of 515 00:25:02,000 --> 00:25:03,760 continental Europe doesn't have that right now. 516 00:25:04,040 --> 00:25:07,080 But if they can come out and carve, really hoist their flag 517 00:25:07,440 --> 00:25:11,480 to a vision for the future, for growth, then I hope that will 518 00:25:11,480 --> 00:25:14,840 start to turn the economy around, turn around, unleash 519 00:25:14,840 --> 00:25:19,280 some animal spirits and also provide a serious, you know, 520 00:25:19,800 --> 00:25:23,440 counterpoint to both reform and the other voices that are coming 521 00:25:23,440 --> 00:25:24,840 onto the stage right now. I. 522 00:25:24,880 --> 00:25:27,240 Mean Rupert mentioned, you know, that the idea that actually 523 00:25:27,240 --> 00:25:29,840 Rachel Reid isn't really in control of this and that if, if, 524 00:25:29,840 --> 00:25:33,640 if America has a big economic boost, then we, we, we might get 525 00:25:33,640 --> 00:25:37,640 a boost a lot, you know, on, on the coattails, I mean, against 526 00:25:37,640 --> 00:25:40,080 that is obviously still the sort of the uncertainty around 527 00:25:40,080 --> 00:25:44,760 tariffs and what kind of impact that might have on our economy. 528 00:25:44,760 --> 00:25:47,840 I mean, how do you think all of that is going to balance out? 529 00:25:49,000 --> 00:25:52,480 Could I just say thus far, you know, and I talk quite a bit to 530 00:25:52,480 --> 00:25:55,600 the Trumpians or the Trumpies, what you call them, thus far, 531 00:25:55,600 --> 00:25:58,240 the UK hasn't been focus number one at all. 532 00:25:58,240 --> 00:26:01,440 It's been primarily Canada and Mexico and China. 533 00:26:02,160 --> 00:26:04,400 I suspect the UK will come into focus at some point. 534 00:26:04,640 --> 00:26:07,920 They are more focused right now amongst the Trump group on 535 00:26:07,920 --> 00:26:10,800 France and Germany than they are in the UK. 536 00:26:11,520 --> 00:26:15,000 They will be looking to see where Keir Starmer grows again, 537 00:26:15,000 --> 00:26:18,840 if he does unleash some kind of growth, pro growth agenda, You 538 00:26:18,840 --> 00:26:21,600 know, you know, that's likely to make it easy to negotiate over 539 00:26:21,600 --> 00:26:24,160 tariffs and threats. Of course, the main issue within 540 00:26:24,160 --> 00:26:25,960 the UK and the US is service sector. 541 00:26:26,680 --> 00:26:28,480 But it's going to be interesting to see, you know, how that 542 00:26:28,480 --> 00:26:30,800 develops because, you know, we've already had a lot of 543 00:26:30,800 --> 00:26:34,360 messaging from the Trump team that if it looks as if they are 544 00:26:34,360 --> 00:26:37,920 going in the eyes of the Trumpians, very left wing, then 545 00:26:37,920 --> 00:26:42,040 the risk of tariffs is likely to rise, which I'm not interesting. 546 00:26:42,120 --> 00:26:44,920 You know, it's a horrific situation to have this kind of 547 00:26:44,920 --> 00:26:48,760 almost, you know, imperial approach towards dealing with 548 00:26:48,760 --> 00:26:51,720 other countries. And we are going back to a world 549 00:26:51,720 --> 00:26:55,520 of power politics and very much hegemonic power politics when it 550 00:26:55,520 --> 00:26:57,920 comes to trade. But that is the reality. 551 00:26:57,960 --> 00:27:00,560 And so it's something which is going to impact the UK going 552 00:27:00,560 --> 00:27:02,720 forward. I wouldn't get overly worried 553 00:27:02,720 --> 00:27:06,440 about the impact of tariffs on the UK economy because you know, 554 00:27:06,440 --> 00:27:09,760 goods and manufacturing exports to the US is not a major part of 555 00:27:09,760 --> 00:27:12,000 the USUK economy. We're a more service based 556 00:27:12,000 --> 00:27:14,600 economy and so we're not the most vulnerable, whereas if 557 00:27:14,600 --> 00:27:17,120 you're sitting in Germany, you'd be a lot more worried about what 558 00:27:17,120 --> 00:27:20,920 might be coming down the track. But also the UK, I think is 559 00:27:20,920 --> 00:27:24,200 going to the art of the deal means that the UK needs to be 560 00:27:24,200 --> 00:27:26,960 negotiating for a position of strength and to have other 561 00:27:26,960 --> 00:27:29,680 things to offer. And the UK, for example, to the 562 00:27:29,680 --> 00:27:32,720 Trump team can offer its leadership in security and 563 00:27:32,720 --> 00:27:36,520 defense and particularly defense spending, but also defense 564 00:27:36,520 --> 00:27:39,280 technology. And I think the other area that 565 00:27:39,280 --> 00:27:41,480 is going to come under pressure is EU KS relationship with 566 00:27:41,480 --> 00:27:43,080 China. And so I do think that it's 567 00:27:43,080 --> 00:27:45,120 quite interesting that this government has started this kind 568 00:27:45,120 --> 00:27:47,840 of reset with China that is going to go down really badly in 569 00:27:47,840 --> 00:27:50,000 the White House. And I don't know how maybe 570 00:27:50,000 --> 00:27:52,080 they're doing this because they're super smart and they're 571 00:27:52,080 --> 00:27:55,240 basically setting this up so that they can junk it as an 572 00:27:55,240 --> 00:27:57,000 offer to the to the US administration. 573 00:27:57,000 --> 00:27:59,080 I'm not sure that they are as smart as that, but that might be 574 00:27:59,080 --> 00:28:01,720 what ends up happening. Although Trump's slightly 575 00:28:01,720 --> 00:28:03,720 playing it both ways on China at the moment as well, no. 576 00:28:03,720 --> 00:28:06,120 He is, I mean, he clearly is angling for a deal on China 577 00:28:06,120 --> 00:28:09,360 rather than kind of full on confrontation, at least as far 578 00:28:09,360 --> 00:28:10,680 as we know. I mean, he we know with 579 00:28:10,680 --> 00:28:14,120 President Trump that he can do a full 180 when you're least 580 00:28:14,120 --> 00:28:16,320 expecting it. So any statement has to be 581 00:28:16,320 --> 00:28:18,520 hedged, I think. So I mean, overall I'm I'm 582 00:28:18,520 --> 00:28:21,160 getting from both of you that you know, what she has announced 583 00:28:21,160 --> 00:28:27,040 today is, is good, but it doesn't really get her out of 584 00:28:27,120 --> 00:28:31,320 her immediate problem. I would say Glass half full is a 585 00:28:31,320 --> 00:28:33,640 fantastic step in the right direction. 586 00:28:33,640 --> 00:28:36,600 Hooray, should have happened earlier, but it's a step in the 587 00:28:36,600 --> 00:28:39,680 right direction. Glass half empty, she has a lot 588 00:28:39,680 --> 00:28:42,400 of challenges in actually implementing this and actually 589 00:28:42,400 --> 00:28:45,680 convincing business leaders who she has already scared off to 590 00:28:45,680 --> 00:28:48,120 some degree. But thank heavens we've seen 591 00:28:48,120 --> 00:28:50,040 this. Yeah, look, she is. 592 00:28:50,200 --> 00:28:51,280 I agree. Look, it's good. 593 00:28:51,320 --> 00:28:53,440 And the messaging from the Labour Party on growth over the 594 00:28:53,440 --> 00:28:56,080 last couple of weeks has been so much better than it was. 595 00:28:56,720 --> 00:28:59,120 But why wait seven months? It's absolutely extraordinary. 596 00:28:59,120 --> 00:29:01,920 I don't understand it. But also she's going to keep 597 00:29:01,920 --> 00:29:04,160 getting a lot of negative messaging from business about 598 00:29:04,160 --> 00:29:07,280 the the National Insurance rise, about the labour market 599 00:29:07,280 --> 00:29:10,040 regulations, about incredibly high industrial energy costs, 600 00:29:10,040 --> 00:29:12,600 which is a massive problem for for UK manufacturing, 601 00:29:12,600 --> 00:29:15,200 particularly heavy industry. So there's a lot of other 602 00:29:15,200 --> 00:29:17,720 problems that aren't dealt with today, but it is definitely a 603 00:29:17,720 --> 00:29:20,280 step in the right direction. I think we give her AB Plus 604 00:29:20,320 --> 00:29:23,400 sitting in Cambridge University. What name minus? 605 00:29:24,400 --> 00:29:28,840 I think that's great inflation. No comment. 606 00:29:30,160 --> 00:29:32,560 Gillian Tester, Rupert Harrison, thank you both very much indeed. 607 00:29:32,560 --> 00:29:35,120 That was the forecast. We'll be back next week. 608 00:29:35,120 --> 00:29:36,120 Until then, bye bye.