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Are you a Tory till the day you 
die? 

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Oh, absolutely. 
So you'll never join reform? 

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Never, never, ever, ever. 
We've seen that playbook before.

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We know where it leads. 
The reformer in government today

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on the economy, they will be a 
present danger to this country. 

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I haven't spoken to a single 
senior Tory here at the 

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conference who thinks that Kemi 
Vaidnock will still be in her 

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job at the general election. 
Do you have absolute faith that 

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she will? 
Kimi Badenov is our leader. 

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If anybody out there thinks that
Tory party getting involved in 

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another internal election 
contest is somehow going to 

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advance our fortunes, they are 
deluded. 

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Does the Tory Party have a a 
God-given right to exist? 

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Hello and welcome to the 
forecast. 

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We're in Manchester for the 
Conservative Party conference, 

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where the Tories are in turmoil,
trailing badly in the polls and 

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facing electoral oblivion. 
With Labour in power and Nigel 

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Farage's Reform UK surging 
ahead, Shadow Chancellor Samel 

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Stride joins me to explain how 
the Conservatives plan to regain

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momentum and rebuild their 
reputation as the party of 

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economic competence. 
Are they simply an irrelevance? 

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Well, Samel, you've been talking
about cutting welfare to fund 

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this National Insurance rebate 
to help people buy first homes. 

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You're being called Malay Stride
after Javier Malay, the chainsaw

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wielding cutter in chief in 
Argentina. 

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Do you like that comparison? 
I don't think I trust myself 

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with a change, a change. 
I think it might be a terrible 

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accident would happen. 
But look, what what I'm saying 

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is that we need to recognize 
that we are living beyond our 

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means as a country. 
You're seeing that in the size 

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of the debt that we're carrying.
You're seeing that in the 

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servicing costs on that debt at 
100 billion a year, twice what 

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we spend on defence. 
Yeah, we've all started under 

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your. 
Well, we did have the small 

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matter of COVID and, you know, 
the contraction of the economy 

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that occurred and a lot of money
that needed to be spent at that 

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time, about 400 billion and 
Libra and all the other parties 

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were urging us that if you 
remember to go even further than

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we did. 
So I think there were some 

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exceptional circumstances, but 
the reality remains that we need

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to have a recognition now that 
if we carry on the way we are, 

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the wheels will come off our 
economy and it will be bad for 

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all of us. 
So what we've been saying in my 

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speech today is that we are 
serious about and making savings

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across government so that we can
get the debt down, but also do 

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through time things on tax that 
will help with the economy. 

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And I had announcements to make 
on. 

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That too well, and one of the 
announcements is restricting 

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benefits only to British 
citizens, exactly the same 

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policy as reform. 
The difference between US and 

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reform is that we have thought 
very carefully through the 

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measures that we're putting 
forward. 

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Reform, for example, have said 
that they will take everybody up

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to £20,000 out of income tax 
altogether. 

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That comes with a price tag, 
according to the IFS, of up to 

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£80 billion, but half what we 
spend on the NHS every year with

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it's one and a half million 
employees. 

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They have not explained to any 
degree how they will fund that 

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or any plan to actually deliver 
on it. 

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They are fantasy economists and 
what we're talking about is well

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thought through savings that we 
can deliver. 

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Well is it well thought through 
though, because some of your 

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sums look a little bit sketchy. 
EU citizens with settled status 

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have to access benefits because 
of the withdrawal agreement, so 

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that takes quite a big chunk out
of the potential. 

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So they're not in our 
calculation. 

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Exactly. 
They're not, but you know a lot 

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of your, well, some of your 
front bench colleagues are 

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saying, colleagues are saying 
unpick that withdrawal 

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agreement. 
Is that on the agenda? 

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Should that be looked at? 
As things stand, there is a a 

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treaty arrangement with the 
European Union. 

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We are not speaking about going 
in and trying to renegotiate. 

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You say, as things stand, well, 
you. 

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Could in the future pick that, 
well, I'm not going to predict 

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what happens in the future. 
I mean, we're not saying, well, 

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they may well, well they may do 
and that's fine. 

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They're you know, that's fine 
for them to express their to 

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flare. 
Views. 

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Well, that's. 
Fine. 

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And people, well, people will 
have. 

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No, I didn't say that. 
What I said was that we have a 

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treaty arrangement with Europe 
and that treaty stands, and 

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that's why we have excluded EU 
nationals from that particular 

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change. 
Just just again on the sums, you

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know, you didn't back the 
government's own welfare cuts of

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five and a half billion pounds. 
That was just political 

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opportunity. 
That was to. 

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Propose that one. 
No, not at all. 

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Because if you remember how that
came about was that Rachel 

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Reeves was approaching the 
spring statement, discovered 

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from the OBR suddenly that all 
the headroom disappeared again 

93
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second time round and needed to 
find some money and shouted over

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to DWP, find me 5 billion plus, 
actually shouted over twice 

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because they came back with one 
lot. 

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And then she found it wasn't 
quite enough on the revised OBR 

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figures. 
That's not a way to drive 

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welfare reform by being sort of 
pulled along by the fiscal rules

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and so on. 
And that's why it wasn't 

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principled and it wasn't the 
right thing to have done and we 

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opposed. 
Even so, you're talking about, 

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you know, having worked out all 
your figures, Therefore you're 

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more responsible in reform, more
responsible from Labour, more 

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responsible than Labour in their
last set of cuts. 

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But saving £8 billion from 
cutting civil servants 3 1/2 

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billion pounds by axing asylum 
hotels, You could have done both

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of those things in government. 
The costs of those two policies 

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ballooned while you were in 
government. 

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So civil servants in particular,
the numbers bloomed because we 

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had the Brexit and we also had 
COVID. 

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You push through, I mean, which 
we had COVID, yeah, so the 

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numbers went up. 
But you're quite right. 

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We are under new leadership now 
and we recognise that we do not 

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need that number of civil 
servants. 

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And mistakes were made under 
your. 

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On your we, we, we did great 
things when we were in 

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government and we made mistakes 
like all the governments do. 

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But the reality is to get back 
that number, which is a 25% cut 

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to where it was in 2016, given 
we don't now have those 

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particular pressure and we got 
things like AI and productivity 

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driving technology that is 
eminently achievable and we will

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do that over a period of five 
years after the next election if

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we're elected. 
You're trying to find the middle

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ground of British politics, you 
know you've got reform on one 

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end, you've got Labour in power,
you're trying to sort of find 

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this middle Rd. 
Does it exist though? 

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Does the centre not hold 
anymore? 

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Liberal minded Tories going to 
just go and vote Lib Dem next 

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time. 
Well, well, it's interesting 

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that you can't characterize 
reform as being to the right. 

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I would say they're marching to 
the left. 

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They are in some. 
Ways and not in others. 

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No, they they want the National.
Economically to the left, 

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socially to the right. 
Well, there we are. 

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If your premises are 
economically to the left, in my 

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terms as the shadow Chancellor, 
they are to the left. 

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So they want to nationalise 
things and utilities. 

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They want to abolish the two 
child benefit cap. 

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That means spending more on 
welfare, not less. 

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An extra 3 1/2 billion pounds a 
year. 

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Those are the kind of policies, 
well, frankly, actually, of a 

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party that will just go out and 
say what it thinks the various 

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people it's talking to want them
to say. 

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Well, that's probably if. 
It's true. 

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Vote for you. 
That's my point. 

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I mean, you had John Curtis the 
pollster saying that as things 

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stand at the moment more the Lib
Dems would win more seats than 

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you. 
So you know, Liberal Tories will

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just go well. 
Let's get them to that. 

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We can't be led by where the 
polls are today as to what we do

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as to what we do for an election
that will probably be in four 

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years time. 
What we've got to do is hold our

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nerves, stay true due to our 
conservative principles, set out

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policies when it's right to do 
so and when we've done the 

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thinking, we've done that at 
this conference. 

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One of the things that I don't 
think anybody will be able to 

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leave this this conference and 
say is we don't know what the 

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Conservatives stand for on 
borders. 

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We've been very clear on the 
ECHR, Big bold move. 

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We thought about it carefully. 
We had Lord Walsam do all that 

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work. 
And on the economy, the things 

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that I've been saying this 
morning about living within our 

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means, but also showing that 
whilst a lot of that money needs

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to go to bearing down on the 
debt, we can, if we do this, 

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make the savings actually get 
some taxes down that will get 

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the economy going. 
Does the Tory party have a 

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God-given right to exist? 
Or when it comes to the next 

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election, if Reform end up the 
biggest party, do you have to 

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just throw in your lot with 
them? 

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Well, all these hypotheticals 
about four years time. 

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Look, the the big thing about 
politics today is uncertainty. 

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If you were interviewing me in 
2019 and I were a socialist, 

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Cathy, you'd be saying you've 
just had the worst results since

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the 1930s. 
You're going to be out of power 

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for a generation, aren't you? 
So. 

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It's all to. 
Play for and yeah, and yet the 

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00:08:16,040 --> 00:08:18,480
Labour Party get one of the 
largest landslides in British 

178
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political history. 
The same thing you could say of 

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00:08:21,120 --> 00:08:25,240
the Canadian election with 
Pierre Poliev 23 points up came 

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00:08:25,240 --> 00:08:27,400
to the election. 
He not only lost it, he lost his

181
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own seat. 
These things. 

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Will move. 
Around you as a person, you 

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know, there's been quite we'll 
come to this in a second with 

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quite a few facts about male 
stride that have been floating 

185
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around this conference. 
Are you a Tory till the day you 

186
00:08:38,400 --> 00:08:40,240
die? 
Oh, absolutely. 

187
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I'm a conservative. 
Never, never, ever, ever. 

188
00:08:43,840 --> 00:08:45,360
Right. 
And do you think that holds for 

189
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a large number of conservatives 
that whatever happens in the 

190
00:08:47,680 --> 00:08:50,480
next election, you are going to 
remain as a force? 

191
00:08:51,440 --> 00:08:53,840
Well, yeah, absolutely. 
And and what you're saying at 

192
00:08:53,840 --> 00:08:57,800
this conference is setting up 
serious, well thought through 

193
00:08:58,000 --> 00:09:01,840
policies that have grown up 
because we're not sometimes just

194
00:09:01,840 --> 00:09:03,960
saying the easy things. 
I said a lot of things that 

195
00:09:04,160 --> 00:09:07,000
you're rightly challenging me on
and saying, well, you know, can 

196
00:09:07,000 --> 00:09:09,200
you really afford this and can 
you really say that? 

197
00:09:09,400 --> 00:09:12,200
And all that sounds a bit, you 
know, these are the things that 

198
00:09:12,200 --> 00:09:14,600
serious grown up politicians 
have to do. 

199
00:09:14,600 --> 00:09:17,920
And we're demonstrating now 
right here in Manchester that we

200
00:09:17,920 --> 00:09:20,240
are up for government. 
We are doing the hard yards, the

201
00:09:20,240 --> 00:09:22,560
hard thinking and we're going to
take the serious trouble. 

202
00:09:22,600 --> 00:09:24,960
So what do you say to colleagues
who are thinking about defecting

203
00:09:24,960 --> 00:09:26,200
to reform? 
There's quite a lot of them. 

204
00:09:27,280 --> 00:09:29,400
Well, I don't know who's 
thinking of doing that that or 

205
00:09:29,400 --> 00:09:33,440
not, but I would say, I would 
say if it's on the basis that 

206
00:09:33,440 --> 00:09:36,720
you think that it's a foregone 
conclusion that you know the 

207
00:09:36,720 --> 00:09:41,440
outcome of a general election in
four years time, then if that's 

208
00:09:41,440 --> 00:09:43,840
the basis on which you're 
moving, I I would be thinking 

209
00:09:43,840 --> 00:09:45,920
again, nobody knows. 
Absolutely not. 

210
00:09:46,000 --> 00:09:51,880
Be part of a merged Tory reform.
Party I see no common ground on,

211
00:09:51,880 --> 00:09:56,080
for example, the economy between
US and reform. 

212
00:09:56,480 --> 00:09:59,760
I see a party that is fiscally 
irresponsible, that is going to 

213
00:09:59,760 --> 00:10:02,960
go, is going out there and 
promising all sorts of giveaways

214
00:10:03,240 --> 00:10:05,600
without properly looking at how 
that'll be funded. 

215
00:10:05,800 --> 00:10:09,720
We've seen that playbook before.
We know where it leads and if 

216
00:10:09,720 --> 00:10:13,400
reformer in government today on 
the economy, they would be a 

217
00:10:13,400 --> 00:10:16,520
present danger to this country. 
So why would I want to get? 

218
00:10:16,520 --> 00:10:17,800
Involved, right? 
So you have. 

219
00:10:18,000 --> 00:10:19,920
Why would you? 
Rule out being part of a merged.

220
00:10:20,040 --> 00:10:24,040
Party before I am, Yes, yes, I 
am not going to be predicting. 

221
00:10:24,040 --> 00:10:25,800
You know you're drawing into all
these hypotheticals. 

222
00:10:25,800 --> 00:10:27,880
As. 
Interviewers love to do. 

223
00:10:27,880 --> 00:10:30,640
It's the great sport, isn't it? 
But what I'm saying is I'm not 

224
00:10:30,640 --> 00:10:34,520
going to get into hypotheticals 
in the future, but there is no 

225
00:10:34,960 --> 00:10:39,680
I'm not. 
No, I, I'm, no, I am not up for 

226
00:10:39,680 --> 00:10:43,080
a merger with Reform. 
I'm not up for joining Reform 

227
00:10:43,080 --> 00:10:44,560
and I don't think I could make 
that much clearer. 

228
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Yeah, OK. 
You've had welfare cuts, mass 

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deportations, withdrawing from 
the ECHR, you've even announced 

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in a policy a policy today 
abolishing business rates for 

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High Street businesses. 
Whatever happened to waiting 

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until 2027 for policies? 
Isn't that extraordinary? 

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You should ask me that. 
When? 

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About a month ago, before the 
conference, you'd be saying, 

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what on earth do you stand for? 
Where are your policies? 

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Well, now we're coming out with 
them. 

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You're now saying, well, why 
didn't you wait? 

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Yeah, but you know you. 
Can't win? 

239
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You've panicked. 
You can't win. 

240
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No, you've. 
Got desperate. 

241
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You've looked at the polls, you 
say. 

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You look at the polls. 
What you do? 

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Not at all, not at all. 
What we are doing, we've said 

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this from the start, is doing 
the deep thinking around the 

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challenges our country faces and
coming up with the right 

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policies. 
And as we come up with those 

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policies, we will put those 
policies out there. 

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So I have set out, yeah, you 
were gonna, I've set out, I've 

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set out a series of savings 
totaling £47 billion. 

250
00:11:37,040 --> 00:11:39,600
It's a large amount of money. 
And what I'm saying is the 

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majority of that must go to 
paying down debt, but that 

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leaves some to do other things. 
And what we've sent today is a 

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very clear signal that we are 
pro business. 

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We understand that we need to 
free businesses up to drive 

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growth. 
We are reaching out to young 

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people. 
So the National Insurance first 

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job bonus that I announced today
is very much a clear message to 

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younger generations that we are,
we are on their side. 

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When they go out and do the 
right thing, when they're 

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aspirational, work hard, we will
be there right behind. 

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I haven't spoken to a single 
senior Tory here at the 

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conference who thinks that Kemi 
Baedenock will still be in her 

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job at the general election. 
Do you have absolute faith that 

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she will? 
Kemi Baedenock is our leader. 

265
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She has a very clear vision. 
She has a very clear vision for 

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the Conservative Party. 
She is somebody who will hold 

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her nerve. 
She's somebody who's extremely 

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resilient. 
This is one of the things that 

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people too often dismiss or 
don't even think about. 

270
00:12:36,280 --> 00:12:39,080
She's doing the hardest job in 
British politics. 

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Mine's a pretty hard job, hers 
is a much harder job and she's 

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doing it in a very calm, 
measured way. 

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If anybody out there thinks that
the Tory party getting involved 

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in another internal election 
contest is somehow going to 

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advance our fortunes, they are 
deluded. 

276
00:12:56,600 --> 00:13:00,040
Well, just so she is going to be
our leader in my my view, right 

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the way through to the general 
election. 

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00:13:01,640 --> 00:13:03,880
And as I say, I think there's 
all to play for. 

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00:13:04,120 --> 00:13:07,960
Look, you mentioned Reform, 31% 
are they know to you're you're 

280
00:13:07,960 --> 00:13:10,760
not. 
Yeah, where was the SDP back in 

281
00:13:10,760 --> 00:13:12,320
19? 
81 to SDP. 

282
00:13:12,440 --> 00:13:16,280
Of no, but I do think the SDPI 
know we're at over 50% in the 

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polls. 
In the 83 election they got 

284
00:13:18,560 --> 00:13:20,320
about 20 odd seats. 
Just finally. 

285
00:13:20,320 --> 00:13:22,840
Things can change. 
You've absolutely, categorically

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00:13:22,840 --> 00:13:25,640
assured us that Kenny Badenoch 
will still be in post, but up to

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00:13:25,640 --> 00:13:28,160
the general election. 
But there's a little list doing 

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00:13:28,160 --> 00:13:30,720
the rounds on WhatsApp about 10 
things you didn't know about Mel

289
00:13:30,720 --> 00:13:32,880
Stride. 
You're a licensed pilot, a scuba

290
00:13:32,880 --> 00:13:35,240
diver, a Stonehenge qualified 
tour guide. 

291
00:13:35,400 --> 00:13:38,600
You've penned an unpublished 
novel set in the 60s US music 

292
00:13:38,600 --> 00:13:40,400
scene. 
I mean, you've got quite a hint 

293
00:13:40,400 --> 00:13:42,280
to land. 
I wonder whether that's that 

294
00:13:42,280 --> 00:13:44,920
list is doing the rounds because
you quite fancy, although you 

295
00:13:44,920 --> 00:13:46,840
crashed out in the last 
leadership contest. 

296
00:13:47,160 --> 00:13:50,240
If there's a sort of need for an
eminence grease, I mean not very

297
00:13:50,240 --> 00:13:53,040
great, but a bit grease. 
You know sperm. 

298
00:13:53,040 --> 00:13:56,240
Hand on the tiller to step in to
just tide you over to the next 

299
00:13:56,240 --> 00:13:57,760
general election. 
You'd be there. 

300
00:13:57,960 --> 00:14:02,440
I am there putting my shoulder 
to the wheel, supporting Kemi, 

301
00:14:02,720 --> 00:14:05,960
working with the shadow cabinet 
to get another Conservative 

302
00:14:05,960 --> 00:14:09,120
government and you know, if 
people are interested in my wild

303
00:14:09,120 --> 00:14:11,840
swimming or novels that weren't 
published or flying aeroplanes. 

304
00:14:11,880 --> 00:14:13,160
I mentioned wild. 
Swimming. 

305
00:14:13,320 --> 00:14:14,920
Yeah, great. 
The wild swimming or whatever 

306
00:14:14,920 --> 00:14:17,560
else is out there, then great. 
You know, I think people should 

307
00:14:17,560 --> 00:14:19,200
know something about their 
politicians. 

308
00:14:19,200 --> 00:14:23,400
And, you know, hopefully it's 
brightened a few lives, you 

309
00:14:23,400 --> 00:14:24,560
know, knowing that I do all 
those. 

310
00:14:24,920 --> 00:14:27,040
Smells great. 
Thank you very much for joining 

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00:14:27,040 --> 00:14:28,280
us. 
That is it from the forecast. 

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00:14:28,280 --> 00:14:30,320
Thank you very much for watching
Back Soon.