1 00:00:01,720 --> 00:00:03,880 Hello and welcome to the forecast. 2 00:00:03,880 --> 00:00:09,760 Syria has burst into the news again because rebel forces have 3 00:00:09,760 --> 00:00:14,360 taken the world and the Syrian government by surprise by not 4 00:00:14,360 --> 00:00:17,960 just taking the second city of Syria, Aleppo, back into their 5 00:00:17,960 --> 00:00:21,760 control but expanding both to the north and to the South. 6 00:00:21,760 --> 00:00:25,360 Now Syria has long been at the centre of everything in the 7 00:00:25,360 --> 00:00:28,240 Middle East, but it's essentially gone quiet for a few 8 00:00:28,240 --> 00:00:30,640 years. The front lines in this long 9 00:00:30,640 --> 00:00:33,960 civil war have been frozen for around four years. 10 00:00:33,960 --> 00:00:38,520 So we as news organisations had rather looked the other way. 11 00:00:38,760 --> 00:00:41,800 But not everyone was so short sighted. 12 00:00:41,880 --> 00:00:45,280 People like Leena Khatib, who joins us today from Chatham 13 00:00:45,280 --> 00:00:48,760 House and has been watching Syria very, very closely. 14 00:00:48,800 --> 00:00:52,560 And of course, our international editor, Lindsay Hilson, joins us 15 00:00:52,560 --> 00:00:57,400 from Ukraine. And of course, the war in 16 00:00:57,400 --> 00:01:01,960 Ukraine and Russia's distraction there is also very important in 17 00:01:01,960 --> 00:01:04,400 this whole story. So, Lindsay, let's just begin 18 00:01:04,400 --> 00:01:09,280 with why Syria is so important. Well, let's just start because 19 00:01:09,280 --> 00:01:12,880 of the Syrians, and because the Syrians who've been through so 20 00:01:12,880 --> 00:01:17,680 much suffering and so much war, hundreds of thousands killed, 21 00:01:17,680 --> 00:01:22,640 millions turned into refugees. And now we see this war coming 22 00:01:22,640 --> 00:01:26,080 back again. And we begin to see how central 23 00:01:26,080 --> 00:01:30,600 it has been to geopolitics really for the last 15 years or 24 00:01:30,600 --> 00:01:35,960 so 'cause remember, it was President Obama who decided not 25 00:01:35,960 --> 00:01:41,120 to intervene in Syria even when Bashar al-Assad crossed the red 26 00:01:41,120 --> 00:01:45,440 line and used chemical weapons. And that was an opening for 27 00:01:45,440 --> 00:01:50,280 President Putin. So in 2015, the Russians went in 28 00:01:50,480 --> 00:01:53,400 with their air power and with some troops on the ground, 29 00:01:53,600 --> 00:01:57,440 basically to save President Bashar al-Assad from being 30 00:01:57,480 --> 00:02:02,440 overthrown by rebels. It wasn't just about their old 31 00:02:02,440 --> 00:02:06,200 friend Bashar al-Assad. It was about President Putin 32 00:02:06,200 --> 00:02:10,919 saying Russia is important on the world stage, Russia is a 33 00:02:10,919 --> 00:02:15,400 power to be reckoned with, and it was about Russia filling the 34 00:02:15,400 --> 00:02:18,000 void left by the United States of America. 35 00:02:18,160 --> 00:02:23,360 So I think a lot has flowed from that decision made by President 36 00:02:23,360 --> 00:02:29,960 Putin about Syria back in 2015. Yes, Lena, we often talk about 37 00:02:30,160 --> 00:02:33,640 the the new age of impunity that we are in and you you could 38 00:02:33,640 --> 00:02:37,720 argue it began with Syria. Yeah, absolutely not just that. 39 00:02:37,720 --> 00:02:41,640 It's the age in which red lines have ceased to have much 40 00:02:41,640 --> 00:02:44,880 meaning. When President Obama back in 41 00:02:44,880 --> 00:02:50,160 2013 said that the use of chemical weapons was a red line, 42 00:02:51,160 --> 00:02:54,640 privately Bashar al-Assad took that seriously. 43 00:02:54,640 --> 00:02:57,760 But then when Bashar al-Assad saw that this was not followed 44 00:02:57,760 --> 00:03:02,920 up with action, he basically just felt that the US rhetoric 45 00:03:03,320 --> 00:03:07,800 is not really going to translate into any concrete action and 46 00:03:07,800 --> 00:03:10,480 that red lines were basically rhetorical. 47 00:03:10,760 --> 00:03:14,120 And unfortunately, since then, when you look at different 48 00:03:14,360 --> 00:03:18,600 incidents in the Middle East where the US has invoked red 49 00:03:18,600 --> 00:03:24,200 lines, you'll see a pattern in which threats are not translated 50 00:03:24,200 --> 00:03:26,000 into action. And this has hurt the 51 00:03:26,000 --> 00:03:29,840 credibility of the United States, not just when it comes 52 00:03:29,840 --> 00:03:33,480 to its allies in the region, but also when it comes to its 53 00:03:33,480 --> 00:03:36,160 opponents. Lindsay, can can you just 54 00:03:36,400 --> 00:03:42,840 explain, you know Syria's current geopolitical importance. 55 00:03:42,840 --> 00:03:45,800 You know who, who its alliances are with and why. 56 00:03:46,840 --> 00:03:48,800 Yeah. So you've got Bashar al-Assad, 57 00:03:48,800 --> 00:03:55,360 who is supported by Iran and also very reliant on Hezbollah, 58 00:03:55,440 --> 00:03:58,120 also supported by Iran and by Russia. 59 00:03:58,120 --> 00:04:02,880 So that's that. And then Shia forces from other 60 00:04:02,880 --> 00:04:06,480 parts of the world, I mean Shia Muslim forces who've come in 61 00:04:06,480 --> 00:04:08,120 from other parts of of the world. 62 00:04:08,800 --> 00:04:15,440 But then the rebels, many of them are backed by Turkey. 63 00:04:16,000 --> 00:04:17,880 And there are a lot of different groups. 64 00:04:17,880 --> 00:04:20,959 And Lena is going to be much more expert than me on the 65 00:04:20,959 --> 00:04:23,120 different groups that there there are. 66 00:04:23,280 --> 00:04:26,280 But Turkey is a very important player here. 67 00:04:26,760 --> 00:04:32,960 And but whereas in the past, the Saudis, the UAE, the Gulf 68 00:04:32,960 --> 00:04:37,360 countries really supported those rebels, now some of those 69 00:04:37,360 --> 00:04:40,480 countries have come round to, well, if not supporting, at 70 00:04:40,480 --> 00:04:44,720 least tolerating Bashar al-Assad in the interests of stability. 71 00:04:45,280 --> 00:04:49,760 So I think that one of the important questions is what role 72 00:04:49,840 --> 00:04:54,200 is Turkey playing in this re emergence of this war? 73 00:04:54,520 --> 00:04:58,120 Because these rebel groups, the Americans, the Western 74 00:04:58,120 --> 00:05:00,920 countries, Europe, they're not really a friend to either side. 75 00:05:00,920 --> 00:05:03,680 They're certainly not a friend to Bashar al-Assad and his 76 00:05:03,680 --> 00:05:08,400 Iranian and Russian backers. But some of these groups were 77 00:05:08,400 --> 00:05:11,920 allied with Islamic State, with al Qaeda. 78 00:05:12,200 --> 00:05:14,880 So they're not friends of the West either. 79 00:05:15,280 --> 00:05:20,120 And so I think that the critical power in the region is Turkey. 80 00:05:20,800 --> 00:05:24,880 President Erdogan is a man who the West can do business with. 81 00:05:25,400 --> 00:05:29,720 He's a man who President Putin can do business with, even 82 00:05:29,720 --> 00:05:32,640 though they're on opposing sides in this war. 83 00:05:32,920 --> 00:05:35,560 He, I would see, is very much a key player. 84 00:05:35,560 --> 00:05:36,880 I don't know what you think, Lena. 85 00:05:37,120 --> 00:05:39,840 Yeah. I mean, I was gonna say we have 86 00:05:39,840 --> 00:05:43,560 to emphasize that these groups that are now leading this 87 00:05:43,560 --> 00:05:47,320 military campaign against Iran, backed groups in Syria and 88 00:05:47,320 --> 00:05:52,600 against the Syrian regime forces no longer are affiliates of ISIS 89 00:05:52,600 --> 00:05:56,240 and al Qaeda. The group leading this alliance 90 00:05:56,240 --> 00:05:59,960 of convenience is called Heya Pahrir Sham HTS. 91 00:06:00,320 --> 00:06:05,640 It did begin life in 2012 as an affiliate of al Qaeda, and it 92 00:06:05,640 --> 00:06:07,760 called itself at the time the Nusra Front. 93 00:06:08,160 --> 00:06:10,680 And then, of course, you had ISIS rising. 94 00:06:10,680 --> 00:06:13,760 And this proved to be a challenge for al Qaeda. 95 00:06:13,760 --> 00:06:17,600 So the two groups in Syria were competing for legitimacy, who 96 00:06:17,600 --> 00:06:20,280 was basically more Islamist than the other. 97 00:06:20,680 --> 00:06:24,840 But then with time, the Nusra Front started having political 98 00:06:24,840 --> 00:06:28,800 ambitions, and it rebranded, changed its name into HTS and 99 00:06:28,800 --> 00:06:32,440 severed ties with al Qaeda. And not only that, it started 100 00:06:32,440 --> 00:06:35,440 fighting al Qaeda and fighting ISIS as well. 101 00:06:35,840 --> 00:06:40,440 And it has emerged as the most a militarily powerful group 102 00:06:40,440 --> 00:06:43,000 amongst the rebels in the northwest of Syria. 103 00:06:43,320 --> 00:06:46,800 And because it has political ambitions, it has set up a de 104 00:06:46,800 --> 00:06:50,720 facto government, ruling Idlib in northwest Syria. 105 00:06:51,000 --> 00:06:53,440 It calls itself the Salvation Government. 106 00:06:54,360 --> 00:06:57,280 But just just to be clear on that, I mean, Lena, they're not 107 00:06:57,280 --> 00:06:59,640 Democrats, are they? I mean, they are, they are 108 00:06:59,640 --> 00:07:03,760 essentially Islamists. They are still Islamists, and 109 00:07:03,760 --> 00:07:07,560 the people who have been under their rule in northwest Syria 110 00:07:07,560 --> 00:07:10,560 have persistently protested against them. 111 00:07:10,880 --> 00:07:15,240 And so here we have, as I said, an alliance of convenience 112 00:07:15,240 --> 00:07:20,840 because this group and others see a moment in which Assad's 113 00:07:20,960 --> 00:07:25,320 Iran backers are weakened. They see Russia distracted in 114 00:07:25,320 --> 00:07:28,880 Ukraine, so they feel this is their moment. 115 00:07:28,880 --> 00:07:33,920 And they've been training for four years to basically improve 116 00:07:33,920 --> 00:07:37,720 their military capacity, manufacture their own drones. 117 00:07:37,840 --> 00:07:41,040 They set up a Military Academy to train officers. 118 00:07:41,360 --> 00:07:46,000 So you have HTS, basically still an Islamist group, but a group 119 00:07:46,000 --> 00:07:49,480 that ultimately has political ambition to be part of the 120 00:07:49,480 --> 00:07:53,360 political transition in Syria. So who supports them? 121 00:07:53,440 --> 00:07:55,280 I mean where? Where do they get their weapons? 122 00:07:55,840 --> 00:07:58,640 You know, what's the root? Who's giving them the money? 123 00:07:59,320 --> 00:08:02,280 Well, as Lindsay said, they have links with Turkey. 124 00:08:02,520 --> 00:08:06,800 Now, Turkey has been quite vague in its stance regarding this 125 00:08:06,800 --> 00:08:09,560 current campaign by these rebel groups, because it's not just 126 00:08:09,560 --> 00:08:14,520 HTS, it's HTS and some other groups, including a group 127 00:08:14,520 --> 00:08:18,480 confusingly called the Syrian National Army, which has nothing 128 00:08:18,480 --> 00:08:21,960 to do with the Syrian Arab Forces, which is the regime of 129 00:08:21,960 --> 00:08:26,560 Bashar al Assad's actual army. This is a group set up by Turkey 130 00:08:26,560 --> 00:08:30,560 because Turkey has its own ambitions to be influential in 131 00:08:30,560 --> 00:08:34,600 Syria. So Turkey has basically not said 132 00:08:34,600 --> 00:08:37,960 that it's against this attack, but at the same time not said 133 00:08:37,960 --> 00:08:42,120 that it supports it. But de facto Turkey benefits 134 00:08:42,120 --> 00:08:45,040 from this situation. And without Turkey, these groups 135 00:08:45,040 --> 00:08:48,040 would not have the kind of funding and weapons that they 136 00:08:48,040 --> 00:08:50,280 enjoy. So Lindsay, where, where does 137 00:08:50,280 --> 00:08:53,800 that leave the West? I mean, you know, the, the truth 138 00:08:53,800 --> 00:08:56,640 is, you know, when the, when the sort of the war lines were 139 00:08:56,640 --> 00:09:01,000 frozen, the West looked the other way and they basically let 140 00:09:01,320 --> 00:09:05,400 Assad claim victory despite everything that happened in 141 00:09:05,680 --> 00:09:07,920 Aleppo. We have to talk about one other 142 00:09:07,920 --> 00:09:11,720 group, and that is the Kurds, because we've talked about the 143 00:09:11,720 --> 00:09:14,680 part of Syria which is controlled by Bashar al-Assad, 144 00:09:15,080 --> 00:09:17,720 helped by his allies. And we've talked about the part 145 00:09:17,720 --> 00:09:20,800 of Syria, Idlib in the northwest, which is controlled 146 00:09:20,800 --> 00:09:25,200 by HTS and these other rebel groups who are basically Sunni. 147 00:09:25,200 --> 00:09:28,440 And then you have the northeast, and that is a place which is 148 00:09:28,440 --> 00:09:35,520 known as Rojava, and it is controlled by Kurdish forces who 149 00:09:35,520 --> 00:09:39,440 are connected to the Kurdish forces over the border in 150 00:09:39,440 --> 00:09:42,280 Turkey. And therefore, President Erdogan 151 00:09:42,280 --> 00:09:47,000 does not like them at all. However, the West does quite 152 00:09:47,000 --> 00:09:50,920 like them. And they are, they are regarded 153 00:09:50,920 --> 00:09:53,160 as a more moderate force. I've spent quite a lot of time 154 00:09:53,160 --> 00:09:55,080 there. They're very easy to deal with. 155 00:09:55,360 --> 00:09:58,880 They're much more, I mean, they have female soldiers, many of 156 00:09:58,880 --> 00:10:01,920 whom are very brave and so on. I wouldn't call them democratic, 157 00:10:02,120 --> 00:10:04,960 but they are a much more sort of moderate force. 158 00:10:05,240 --> 00:10:08,560 But they and they have some Western backing. 159 00:10:08,760 --> 00:10:11,040 You know, there are American troops in there. 160 00:10:11,440 --> 00:10:14,720 I was there and I, you know, I can't even remember what year it 161 00:10:14,720 --> 00:10:16,600 was now. But Donald Trump when he was 162 00:10:16,600 --> 00:10:19,040 last in power, suddenly just, he suddenly found out that there 163 00:10:19,040 --> 00:10:20,720 were American troops somewhere in Syria. 164 00:10:20,720 --> 00:10:22,120 And he said, well, we're going to get those out. 165 00:10:22,120 --> 00:10:24,000 We don't want that. We don't want that. 166 00:10:24,400 --> 00:10:28,600 And that was seen as an utter betrayal of the Kurds, of our 167 00:10:28,600 --> 00:10:29,680 allies. But. 168 00:10:29,680 --> 00:10:30,720 They're still there, aren't they? 169 00:10:31,680 --> 00:10:35,440 But yeah, he wasn't in the end. They managed the the people who 170 00:10:35,440 --> 00:10:38,240 he was working with at that time, you know who were the. 171 00:10:39,240 --> 00:10:42,760 Guardrails kicked in. Yeah, the adults in the room 172 00:10:42,760 --> 00:10:45,880 didn't let him do that. But the Kurdish forces there are 173 00:10:45,880 --> 00:10:48,280 quite important to the West. And the reason for that is 174 00:10:48,280 --> 00:10:52,600 because they were in the forefront of beating ISIS. 175 00:10:52,600 --> 00:10:56,200 Islamic State, you remember, it had the caliphate, which had its 176 00:10:56,320 --> 00:10:59,320 its headquarters in Raqqa. And now there are all these 177 00:10:59,320 --> 00:11:04,720 prison camps which the Kurds run, where they control and hold 178 00:11:04,720 --> 00:11:07,640 many of these jihadis. Now, this is very controversial 179 00:11:07,640 --> 00:11:10,120 and I would argue extremely cruel, especially to the 180 00:11:10,120 --> 00:11:11,400 children who've been held in there. 181 00:11:11,680 --> 00:11:16,080 But in there, there are also, you know, Westerners who went to 182 00:11:16,080 --> 00:11:19,720 fight for Islamic State. You know, Shamima Begum is the 183 00:11:19,720 --> 00:11:22,320 most famous one from the UK. But there are many others. 184 00:11:22,560 --> 00:11:25,160 And countries like the UK and Canada don't want those people 185 00:11:25,160 --> 00:11:28,560 back. And it's the Kurds who are 186 00:11:28,920 --> 00:11:32,880 imprisoning them, sometimes under not very good conditions I 187 00:11:32,880 --> 00:11:37,200 must say, But that is where the West is and they don't want that 188 00:11:37,480 --> 00:11:40,920 destabilised. So there's another complication 189 00:11:40,920 --> 00:11:43,480 to add to this situation. I mean, so, so just, I mean, 190 00:11:43,480 --> 00:11:45,240 because it, you know, obviously it's getting very, very 191 00:11:45,240 --> 00:11:49,520 complicated to follow, but we have a situation in which Turkey 192 00:11:49,520 --> 00:11:55,160 supports one lot, America supports the Kurds and America 193 00:11:55,160 --> 00:11:59,000 and Turkey, who are allies and in NATO together are supporting 194 00:11:59,000 --> 00:12:01,000 opposing factions. Yes. 195 00:12:01,160 --> 00:12:04,920 And President Erdogan and Vladimir Putin, who are on 196 00:12:04,920 --> 00:12:07,960 opposite sides on the war, actually get along quite well, 197 00:12:08,280 --> 00:12:12,680 which is why I think that Erdogan is the key to any kind 198 00:12:12,680 --> 00:12:17,400 of resolution because he is. And, and one of the reasons that 199 00:12:17,400 --> 00:12:20,880 this has happened is that Erdogan has been pushing Bashar 200 00:12:20,880 --> 00:12:25,160 al-Assad for some months now to try and sort some of this out to 201 00:12:25,160 --> 00:12:26,800 come to some kind of accommodation. 202 00:12:27,000 --> 00:12:29,720 And Bashar Assad has refused to do that. 203 00:12:29,960 --> 00:12:32,920 He's a stubborn man. He again, is a tall man. 204 00:12:33,000 --> 00:12:35,960 He runs what is basically a narco state now. 205 00:12:36,120 --> 00:12:40,160 But I think the President Putin may now gang up with Erdogan to 206 00:12:40,160 --> 00:12:43,040 say to Bashar al-Assad, you just can't carry on like this. 207 00:12:43,040 --> 00:12:44,800 I don't know, Lena, have I got that all wrong? 208 00:12:45,160 --> 00:12:49,520 No, I mean, I was going to say that this is part of the reason 209 00:12:49,520 --> 00:12:53,560 why Turkey is being vague about this campaign by the rebels, 210 00:12:53,760 --> 00:12:57,840 because it's a way to pressure Assad to finally agree to a 211 00:12:57,840 --> 00:13:00,240 deal. I mean, ultimately the situation 212 00:13:00,240 --> 00:13:02,960 is complicated, but it's actually also simple at the same 213 00:13:02,960 --> 00:13:05,840 time. Everybody wants power, everybody 214 00:13:05,840 --> 00:13:08,360 wants influence. And these rebel groups in 215 00:13:08,360 --> 00:13:11,600 particular, including the Kurds, actually are all being 216 00:13:11,600 --> 00:13:15,920 pragmatic. So you will see, if you, like 217 00:13:15,920 --> 00:13:20,160 me, follow the communiques by these rebel groups conducting 218 00:13:20,160 --> 00:13:22,680 the campaign against Assad and the Iran proxies. 219 00:13:23,440 --> 00:13:26,760 Most of the time they are not talking about Russia. 220 00:13:26,760 --> 00:13:30,120 In fact, they issued an open statement to Russia saying our 221 00:13:30,120 --> 00:13:33,880 fight is not with you. What this tells me is that they 222 00:13:33,880 --> 00:13:40,040 want a deal at some point made between them, Russia and Turkey 223 00:13:40,040 --> 00:13:44,960 about power sharing in Syria. Right, so, well, So what What? 224 00:13:44,960 --> 00:13:47,360 What does a deal begin to look like? 225 00:13:47,520 --> 00:13:50,520 Are you talking about carving up Syria effectively? 226 00:13:51,400 --> 00:13:53,400 No. Having some sort of federation 227 00:13:53,400 --> 00:13:55,960 or what? No, what they, what they are 228 00:13:55,960 --> 00:13:59,640 interested in is be part of the political transition. 229 00:13:59,840 --> 00:14:03,680 Now there is AUN LED peace process which of course sadly 230 00:14:03,680 --> 00:14:06,360 has LED nowhere in terms of political transition. 231 00:14:06,520 --> 00:14:11,440 There was AUN Security Council resolution, Resolution 2254 that 232 00:14:11,440 --> 00:14:14,560 says there has to be political transition in Syria, which 233 00:14:14,560 --> 00:14:17,120 basically means Assad stepping aside. 234 00:14:17,360 --> 00:14:22,240 And a group of people who have been brought by the UN from both 235 00:14:22,240 --> 00:14:26,320 sides were meant to come up with some sort of power sharing deal 236 00:14:26,520 --> 00:14:30,480 that involves elements from the old Assad regime and elements 237 00:14:30,480 --> 00:14:33,840 from the opposition in its different factions. 238 00:14:33,840 --> 00:14:37,960 However, because HTS and all those Islamist groups in the 239 00:14:37,960 --> 00:14:42,160 northwest are listed as terrorists by many countries 240 00:14:42,160 --> 00:14:46,480 around the world, they are not part of this political process. 241 00:14:46,720 --> 00:14:49,520 What they're hoping would happen, and here, Lindsay, maybe 242 00:14:49,520 --> 00:14:53,400 you can weigh in, is basically have a scenario a bit like the 243 00:14:53,400 --> 00:14:57,800 Taliban in Afghanistan, whereby they are eventually recognized 244 00:14:58,160 --> 00:15:01,760 as, you know, legitimate political actors and be part of 245 00:15:01,760 --> 00:15:03,960 this political transition at large. 246 00:15:04,440 --> 00:15:06,280 Well, I don't think that the Taliban are accepted as a 247 00:15:06,560 --> 00:15:08,920 legitimate political actors. It's just that nobody knows what 248 00:15:08,920 --> 00:15:11,920 to do about it. And because the Americans pulled 249 00:15:11,920 --> 00:15:15,920 their forces out in such a precipitous way, you know, 250 00:15:15,920 --> 00:15:19,080 that's what we ended up with. And now everybody just sort of, 251 00:15:19,080 --> 00:15:21,840 you know, keeps coughing twice and looking the other way and 252 00:15:21,840 --> 00:15:24,160 taking absolutely no notice about the horrendous things that 253 00:15:24,160 --> 00:15:27,120 are happening to women there. But Lena, it's very hard for me 254 00:15:27,120 --> 00:15:31,320 to see how this kind of transition could work without a 255 00:15:31,320 --> 00:15:35,240 carve up of the country, because Bashar al-Assad, as I understand 256 00:15:35,240 --> 00:15:39,200 it, is not going to step aside unless there's a coup against 257 00:15:39,200 --> 00:15:43,240 him. And I, I can't see how these 258 00:15:43,240 --> 00:15:47,960 enemies could work together because they have such different 259 00:15:47,960 --> 00:15:51,640 visions for the country and because the country is ruined 260 00:15:51,640 --> 00:15:56,360 and is now entirely dependent, as I can see it, on drugs as a 261 00:15:56,360 --> 00:15:59,400 way of fueling the economy. This drug captagan, which 262 00:15:59,840 --> 00:16:04,080 Hezbollah and the Assad regime traffic in in order to keep 263 00:16:04,080 --> 00:16:07,320 things going. I I just find it very hard to 264 00:16:07,320 --> 00:16:11,280 see how you turn that into any kind of functioning state. 265 00:16:11,720 --> 00:16:16,320 Functioning is the keyword here. I would give you Lebanon as an 266 00:16:16,320 --> 00:16:19,840 example of a country in which you had many, many, many 267 00:16:19,840 --> 00:16:23,400 factions fighting with one another and then realizing that 268 00:16:23,400 --> 00:16:27,440 no one can actually win and in the end agreeing to a very slow 269 00:16:27,440 --> 00:16:30,880 power sharing agreement. So unfortunately, I am not 270 00:16:30,880 --> 00:16:35,520 predicting that even if Assad is removed, whether by force, which 271 00:16:35,520 --> 00:16:39,640 is what these rebel groups are now trying to do, or whether, 272 00:16:39,640 --> 00:16:43,240 you know, eventually Erdogan and Putin managed to kind of carve 273 00:16:43,240 --> 00:16:47,920 up some political deal with him. I don't see the future being 274 00:16:47,960 --> 00:16:52,000 rosy, unfortunately for, you know, at least the short term in 275 00:16:52,000 --> 00:16:56,360 Syria because we've seen what these, you know, kind of 276 00:16:56,520 --> 00:16:59,880 so-called peace building agreements based on power 277 00:16:59,880 --> 00:17:02,680 sharing can do. And it's also far from clear 278 00:17:02,680 --> 00:17:06,920 whether any of these groups and and the government have any kind 279 00:17:06,920 --> 00:17:09,119 of popular support that would last. 280 00:17:09,359 --> 00:17:11,520 I mean, you know, when you're on the ground there and you talk to 281 00:17:11,520 --> 00:17:15,040 people, they say whatever they feel they have to say at the 282 00:17:15,040 --> 00:17:17,800 time, you know, I remember being in West Aleppo and talking to 283 00:17:17,800 --> 00:17:20,839 people about the Syrian, you know, the Assad government and 284 00:17:20,839 --> 00:17:23,440 them saying, yes, yes, it's, you know, it's, it's it's more 285 00:17:23,440 --> 00:17:25,440 stable and that, you know, we'd rather, you know, we'd rather be 286 00:17:25,440 --> 00:17:26,800 here. But there was no, there was 287 00:17:26,800 --> 00:17:31,200 nothing convincing about it. And and, you know, none of those 288 00:17:31,200 --> 00:17:35,320 options are offering any kind of real political freedom. 289 00:17:35,320 --> 00:17:38,280 They don't offer democracy. They don't offer sort of power 290 00:17:38,560 --> 00:17:43,080 to the people in in any sense. So I mean, what whatever you end 291 00:17:43,080 --> 00:17:45,880 up with in terms of a deal, it wouldn't be very stable, would 292 00:17:45,880 --> 00:17:49,280 it? It wouldn't be, and sadly you 293 00:17:49,280 --> 00:17:52,760 are most likely going to end up with a scenario in which Syria 294 00:17:52,760 --> 00:17:57,040 is run by a Russian puppet who would be a replacement for 295 00:17:57,040 --> 00:18:01,080 Assad. The democratic forces within 296 00:18:01,080 --> 00:18:04,600 Syria, civil society, the intellectuals, the the people 297 00:18:04,600 --> 00:18:08,840 who believe in liberal democracy will then have another fight on 298 00:18:08,840 --> 00:18:11,720 their hands, which will be a political fight, not a military 299 00:18:11,720 --> 00:18:16,160 one, to try to carve out at least some space in this kind of 300 00:18:16,160 --> 00:18:19,920 setting. Ordinary Syrians, what they 301 00:18:19,920 --> 00:18:24,440 would want, I mean, you know, democracy, freedom, I love it 302 00:18:24,440 --> 00:18:27,040 all. But for most Syrians, if you 303 00:18:27,040 --> 00:18:30,720 could get up in the morning and go to work and make a living and 304 00:18:30,720 --> 00:18:33,880 know that your house wasn't going to be blown up and that 305 00:18:33,880 --> 00:18:36,320 your kids would get to school and things would be all right 306 00:18:36,560 --> 00:18:40,120 and that you could survive and, you know, bring up a family and 307 00:18:40,120 --> 00:18:42,840 so on, you know what? It might be good enough, at 308 00:18:42,840 --> 00:18:46,720 least for the moment. I mean, in in the meantime, 309 00:18:46,720 --> 00:18:51,120 though, I mean, we are seeing Russia bombing Idlib again with 310 00:18:51,120 --> 00:18:54,480 Syria, which I think a lot of people might find surprising. 311 00:18:54,480 --> 00:18:57,520 You know, are, are Russian forces still in Syria in the 312 00:18:57,520 --> 00:19:01,440 same way that they were before? And similarly with Hezbollah, I 313 00:19:01,440 --> 00:19:05,120 mean, you know, you assume that when Hezbollah was fighting 314 00:19:05,440 --> 00:19:07,720 Israel, they would have pulled all their people back. 315 00:19:07,920 --> 00:19:10,000 But it seems that Hezbollah is still there as well. 316 00:19:10,400 --> 00:19:13,640 Well, I think some Hezbollah is there, but let me, maybe Lena 317 00:19:13,640 --> 00:19:15,560 can tell us more about Hezbollah and let me tell you a little bit 318 00:19:15,560 --> 00:19:18,520 about the Russians. So the Russians are not there in 319 00:19:18,520 --> 00:19:20,080 the numbers that they used to be. 320 00:19:20,160 --> 00:19:24,240 And although Russia did have a force on the ground about 5000 321 00:19:24,240 --> 00:19:28,120 at the maximum, most of those were pulled out in 2022 when 322 00:19:28,120 --> 00:19:30,800 Russia invaded Ukraine because they needed the forces here. 323 00:19:31,400 --> 00:19:34,600 And what you were left with was a sort of rump Air Force. 324 00:19:34,600 --> 00:19:37,800 Some, you know, they, they pulled out some of their fighter 325 00:19:37,800 --> 00:19:40,680 bombers and they left some. So the ones that are still there 326 00:19:40,760 --> 00:19:43,800 are, yes, in action, bombing people, probably not rebels, 327 00:19:44,000 --> 00:19:49,080 probably ordinary people. But President Putin cannot 328 00:19:49,080 --> 00:19:52,760 afford to send large numbers of people back in. 329 00:19:52,760 --> 00:19:56,640 And the other people who were there fighting for President 330 00:19:56,640 --> 00:20:00,760 Bashar al-Assad were you remember the Wagner Group? 331 00:20:00,800 --> 00:20:03,800 Oh, Prigajin, his people, He had a lot of mercenaries in there. 332 00:20:04,160 --> 00:20:08,760 Now, when things wound down in Syria and after Prigajin, you 333 00:20:08,760 --> 00:20:11,600 know, was in a plane that unfortunately fell out of the 334 00:20:11,600 --> 00:20:15,800 sky in some mysterious manner after he had risen up against 335 00:20:16,040 --> 00:20:19,240 against President Putin, a lot of those mercenaries were 336 00:20:19,240 --> 00:20:22,240 redeployed to this new Africa Corps. 337 00:20:22,240 --> 00:20:25,720 So they were sent to other to to parts of Africa. 338 00:20:26,360 --> 00:20:30,800 So, and now here in Ukraine, what I've seen on the frontline 339 00:20:31,160 --> 00:20:34,840 is that the Russians are advancing and it's important to 340 00:20:34,840 --> 00:20:38,520 them to get into a position of strength before President Trump 341 00:20:38,520 --> 00:20:42,840 comes into office in January because they know that he's 342 00:20:42,840 --> 00:20:45,200 going to try and force some kind of negotiation. 343 00:20:45,440 --> 00:20:48,400 So the last thing President Putin wants to do at the moment 344 00:20:48,400 --> 00:20:52,760 is weaken his forces here in Ukraine in order to deal with 345 00:20:52,760 --> 00:20:55,160 this problem over there in Syria. 346 00:20:55,160 --> 00:20:59,160 He wants to keep his forces here, which is why I think he's 347 00:20:59,160 --> 00:21:01,440 going to call on President Erdogan. 348 00:21:02,200 --> 00:21:06,200 Yeah, and also when it comes to Russia and Syria, because it 349 00:21:06,200 --> 00:21:12,160 remains the more dominant actor amongst the two foreign backers 350 00:21:12,160 --> 00:21:16,200 of Assad, Iran and Russia. Russia doesn't need to deploy 351 00:21:16,200 --> 00:21:19,520 huge resources because it knows it's still going to be 352 00:21:19,520 --> 00:21:22,040 influential. It knows it can make a deal with 353 00:21:22,040 --> 00:21:26,000 whoever is left on the ground. And already, as I said, the 354 00:21:26,000 --> 00:21:29,080 rebel groups have already appealed to the Russians to kind 355 00:21:29,080 --> 00:21:32,120 of say our fight is not with you, so they are ready for a 356 00:21:32,120 --> 00:21:34,080 deal. So Russia doesn't need these 357 00:21:34,080 --> 00:21:35,760 resources. Now, in terms of why it's 358 00:21:35,760 --> 00:21:40,120 bombing civilian areas in Idlib right now and not, for example, 359 00:21:40,320 --> 00:21:44,720 bombing the rebels directly, meaning military targets, it's 360 00:21:44,720 --> 00:21:48,240 because it thinks that this way it can push the rebels to go 361 00:21:48,240 --> 00:21:51,840 back to the northwest to defend civilian areas. 362 00:21:52,040 --> 00:21:55,520 But what the rebels are doing instead is they're keeping 363 00:21:55,920 --> 00:21:59,200 advancing South. And as they do that, they are 364 00:21:59,200 --> 00:22:03,400 actually acquiring more and more of the arsenal of the Syrian 365 00:22:03,400 --> 00:22:07,920 Army of Bashar al-Assad and increasing their own air defense 366 00:22:07,920 --> 00:22:10,960 capabilities and using those against the Russian planes. 367 00:22:11,160 --> 00:22:15,400 So it's actually interesting militarily how the the two sides 368 00:22:15,400 --> 00:22:17,520 are are are calculating very differently. 369 00:22:17,920 --> 00:22:21,000 Right now, just to sort of make things even more complicated, 370 00:22:21,000 --> 00:22:23,680 the big player we haven't talked about is Iran. 371 00:22:24,120 --> 00:22:27,240 So, so Lena, what? Where does Iran sit now? 372 00:22:27,720 --> 00:22:33,040 Because there were Revolutionary Guard in, in, in Syria. 373 00:22:33,040 --> 00:22:34,400 And they're, they're not now, are they? 374 00:22:35,560 --> 00:22:37,720 They are still there, Iran. They. 375 00:22:37,720 --> 00:22:40,720 Are still there. Yeah, Iran is still present in 376 00:22:40,720 --> 00:22:46,640 Syria through various proxy groups like Hezbollah and like 377 00:22:47,240 --> 00:22:53,320 groups that are Pakistani and Afghan and also Hezbollah. 378 00:22:53,320 --> 00:22:55,760 Of course, Lebanese Hezbollah is supported by Iran. 379 00:22:55,760 --> 00:22:58,520 They are still present. However, they are significantly 380 00:22:58,520 --> 00:23:01,480 weakened. Even though Hezbollah did not 381 00:23:01,480 --> 00:23:07,720 withdraw from Syria to focus on Lebanon, its ability to move in 382 00:23:07,720 --> 00:23:12,640 Syria has been curtailed because Israel keeps bombing Iran sites 383 00:23:12,880 --> 00:23:16,480 inside Syria. And Hezbollah also is now under 384 00:23:16,480 --> 00:23:20,280 a ceasefire agreement with Israel that says that it is not 385 00:23:20,280 --> 00:23:24,280 allowed to move its troops in Lebanon or transfer weapons. 386 00:23:24,440 --> 00:23:27,840 So Hezbollah can't send reinforcements into Syria from 387 00:23:27,840 --> 00:23:30,680 Lebanon. And this has left Iran basically 388 00:23:31,240 --> 00:23:36,960 weakened more than ever inside Syria, which is why the rebel 389 00:23:36,960 --> 00:23:40,360 groups are taking advantage. But when it comes to Iran, Syria 390 00:23:40,360 --> 00:23:43,640 is very important because without Syria, Hezbollah won't 391 00:23:43,640 --> 00:23:47,720 be able to have weapons transferred to it from Iran 392 00:23:47,880 --> 00:23:51,320 through Syria and to Lebanon. And the Captagon trade that 393 00:23:51,320 --> 00:23:53,160 Lindsay mentioned is very important. 394 00:23:53,160 --> 00:23:58,360 This drug trade is bringing a lot of money to the Assad regime 395 00:23:58,400 --> 00:24:02,360 and Hezbollah as well, and this is not something that Iran will 396 00:24:02,360 --> 00:24:05,720 want to lose. So Iran will definitely try to 397 00:24:05,720 --> 00:24:09,840 prop up the Assad regime, but its ability right now is not 398 00:24:09,840 --> 00:24:12,080 what it used to be. Of course, what's coming down 399 00:24:12,080 --> 00:24:15,960 the line as well in January is Donald Trump in the White House. 400 00:24:15,960 --> 00:24:21,200 And I mean, we we see what he's doing in Gaza, where he has just 401 00:24:21,480 --> 00:24:27,600 warned Hamas to release the hostages or face an even bigger 402 00:24:27,880 --> 00:24:29,880 onslaught, it seems. I mean, he seems to be, you 403 00:24:29,960 --> 00:24:34,840 know, threatening American attack as well as Israeli. 404 00:24:35,480 --> 00:24:38,560 So where, where might he sit on this one, Lindsay? 405 00:24:39,480 --> 00:24:42,040 I think he's in a will be in a complicated position because 406 00:24:42,040 --> 00:24:45,360 he's also belligerent towards Iran. 407 00:24:45,760 --> 00:24:49,800 And obviously, you know, he in, you know, he, he talks about 408 00:24:49,800 --> 00:24:52,880 that, but at the same time, he's also talked about maybe, you 409 00:24:52,880 --> 00:24:55,520 know, doing some kind of deal with Iran. 410 00:24:55,920 --> 00:25:00,680 And then, you know, again, it comes back to Putin and Ukraine. 411 00:25:01,040 --> 00:25:04,680 He, he says that he's the man who can end end wars. 412 00:25:04,680 --> 00:25:07,520 He can end the war here in Ukraine in 24 hours. 413 00:25:07,840 --> 00:25:10,480 And that means he, he wants to talk to Putin and he wants to 414 00:25:10,480 --> 00:25:12,840 get this, to get this thing sorted. 415 00:25:13,160 --> 00:25:17,280 But now you have this whole other theatre of war, which no 416 00:25:17,720 --> 00:25:22,840 single person can really have much impact on, you know, 417 00:25:23,040 --> 00:25:26,360 because the Americans largely absented themselves from all of 418 00:25:26,360 --> 00:25:28,280 this. It's hard to see how he comes in 419 00:25:28,280 --> 00:25:31,120 and sorts it out. So I think it once again, it 420 00:25:31,120 --> 00:25:35,600 may, it may make him look weak. And that's not a thing that that 421 00:25:35,600 --> 00:25:38,000 President Trump likes. I mean, Lena, of course. 422 00:25:38,000 --> 00:25:40,080 I mean, Trump would argue that he's the only person who was 423 00:25:40,080 --> 00:25:45,880 strong on Syria because he did at least bomb Assad over the use 424 00:25:45,880 --> 00:25:51,080 of chemical weapons. Yeah, and now he's also thinking 425 00:25:51,080 --> 00:25:55,400 and saying that this time he's not going to be as nice vis a 426 00:25:55,400 --> 00:25:58,880 vis Iran. I think Trump obviously 427 00:25:58,880 --> 00:26:04,600 recognizes that in his first term, he may claim that no wars 428 00:26:04,600 --> 00:26:07,360 were happening in the Middle East, which of course is not 429 00:26:07,360 --> 00:26:12,240 true. But he did not manage to make a, 430 00:26:12,240 --> 00:26:17,040 you know, a deal happen for Syria and or to get Iran to, you 431 00:26:17,040 --> 00:26:21,080 know, basically behave according to international law because it 432 00:26:21,080 --> 00:26:26,480 kept enriching, you know, nuclear elements and it kept 433 00:26:26,560 --> 00:26:29,760 destabilizing the region. This is not something that his 434 00:26:30,280 --> 00:26:32,280 presidency dealt with in the first term. 435 00:26:32,280 --> 00:26:36,120 So I think now he's looking at all those issues as one 436 00:26:36,120 --> 00:26:40,000 interconnected issue, which is about Iran's influence in the 437 00:26:40,000 --> 00:26:43,200 region. And he is indicating, and this 438 00:26:43,200 --> 00:26:46,160 can be seen through the people who he has hired in his cabinet, 439 00:26:46,480 --> 00:26:50,240 that he will pursue another iteration of the so-called 440 00:26:50,240 --> 00:26:53,920 maximum pressure policy towards Iran, but this time it's a 441 00:26:53,920 --> 00:26:56,720 higher maximum. Now, at the same time, he does 442 00:26:56,720 --> 00:27:02,080 not want the US to be involved in military action in the Middle 443 00:27:02,080 --> 00:27:04,480 East. He does not want a quagmire like 444 00:27:04,480 --> 00:27:09,920 the invasion of Iraq in 2003. And so I think he's going to 445 00:27:09,960 --> 00:27:15,600 mostly use economic sanctions on Iran more so than before. 446 00:27:16,200 --> 00:27:20,280 He's probably going to seek to completely cancel the nuclear 447 00:27:20,280 --> 00:27:24,280 deal with Iran and instead negotiate with Iran on a deal 448 00:27:24,280 --> 00:27:27,800 that would link the nuclear enrichment file with Iran's 449 00:27:28,000 --> 00:27:32,280 regional destabilization, taking advantage of the weakening of 450 00:27:32,320 --> 00:27:35,760 Iran in the region right now. I mean, despite the rhetoric, 451 00:27:36,160 --> 00:27:39,800 Iran's so-called the old narrative of unity of France 452 00:27:39,800 --> 00:27:43,440 that all it's proxies will spring into action in a huge way 453 00:27:43,440 --> 00:27:50,360 together has not quite happened. And so there is fear in Iran and 454 00:27:50,360 --> 00:27:54,240 worry regarding what the Trump administration might do. 455 00:27:55,000 --> 00:27:58,240 So, you know, maybe this will be the silver lining in all of 456 00:27:58,240 --> 00:28:00,760 this. I mean, Lindsay, it's worth just 457 00:28:00,760 --> 00:28:02,960 pausing for a moment to think if, if all that were to come to 458 00:28:02,960 --> 00:28:09,240 pass, Donald Trump would be the man who ends the war in Ukraine, 459 00:28:09,800 --> 00:28:13,160 ends the war in the Middle East and puts Iran back in his box. 460 00:28:13,160 --> 00:28:17,520 I mean, he, he, he could come out of this incredibly well. 461 00:28:18,000 --> 00:28:21,080 It depends how long term you're talking, isn't it? 462 00:28:21,440 --> 00:28:25,280 Because, you know, ending wars is one thing and freezing 463 00:28:25,280 --> 00:28:27,920 conflicts is another. And that's what we've seen in 464 00:28:27,920 --> 00:28:29,680 Syria, that the conflict was frozen. 465 00:28:29,680 --> 00:28:32,760 It wasn't over. And I think that here in 466 00:28:32,760 --> 00:28:36,960 Ukraine, you could see the conflict frozen, but not over. 467 00:28:36,960 --> 00:28:40,680 And then what everybody here fears is President Putin coming 468 00:28:40,680 --> 00:28:44,880 back for more. And so doing a deal anywhere in 469 00:28:44,880 --> 00:28:48,040 the world where you force it and you say everything stops, you 470 00:28:48,040 --> 00:28:51,240 can tout that as peace, but that isn't peace. 471 00:28:51,240 --> 00:28:54,160 That's just a temporary absence of war. 472 00:28:54,720 --> 00:28:59,040 And that does not solve the deep underlying problems that any of 473 00:28:59,040 --> 00:29:02,440 these countries have. We must remember that one of the 474 00:29:02,440 --> 00:29:05,240 key winners in all this is Israel. 475 00:29:05,800 --> 00:29:10,960 Israel has been looking forward to the day when Irans regional 476 00:29:10,960 --> 00:29:14,080 influence is weakened and now is a moment. 477 00:29:14,080 --> 00:29:19,040 Although Israel had considered Assad to be a convenient leader 478 00:29:19,040 --> 00:29:22,920 of Syria because he did not himself to form a threat to 479 00:29:22,920 --> 00:29:27,040 Israel, the proliferation of Iran backed groups including 480 00:29:27,040 --> 00:29:31,240 Hezbollah threatening Israel in the Middle East is not in its 481 00:29:31,240 --> 00:29:35,600 interests and now there is a moment for it to change the 482 00:29:35,600 --> 00:29:38,760 status quo. And of course, one of Israel's 483 00:29:38,760 --> 00:29:42,840 biggest backers is President-elect Trump, so he may 484 00:29:42,840 --> 00:29:47,280 be pushing forever more Israeli influence in the region, 485 00:29:47,560 --> 00:29:49,880 whatever Arabs and others think about it. 486 00:29:51,240 --> 00:29:52,560 We must leave it there. Lindsay. 487 00:29:52,640 --> 00:29:54,360 Lena, thank you both very much indeed. 488 00:29:54,600 --> 00:29:56,520 That's the forecast. Until next time, bye. 489 00:29:56,520 --> 00:29:56,800 Bye.