1 00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:03,080 The regime is dying a death by 1000 cuts, anyone of which could 2 00:00:03,080 --> 00:00:06,160 prove fatal. It could subside, but it could 3 00:00:06,160 --> 00:00:09,160 very easily tip over. I see the Islamic Republic still 4 00:00:09,160 --> 00:00:10,920 very much in command and control. 5 00:00:10,920 --> 00:00:15,160 Is this part of maybe a cycle of protests that can eventually 6 00:00:15,160 --> 00:00:19,160 become revolutionary? I think so, But I certainly 7 00:00:19,160 --> 00:00:22,440 don't think that the system is going to just fall overnight. 8 00:00:22,520 --> 00:00:26,080 Will Donald Trump intervene militarily, as he has threatened 9 00:00:26,080 --> 00:00:27,480 to do? Yes or no? 10 00:00:30,600 --> 00:00:32,200 Hello and welcome to the forecast. 11 00:00:32,360 --> 00:00:35,760 Iran is in the grip of its most intense unrest in years. 12 00:00:36,000 --> 00:00:38,560 What began in Tehran's bizarre over soaring prices and the 13 00:00:38,560 --> 00:00:41,880 collapsing currency has spread across 27 provinces, with 14 00:00:41,880 --> 00:00:45,360 inflation above 50% and the government's struggling to 15 00:00:45,360 --> 00:00:48,040 contain anger over corruption and falling living standards. 16 00:00:48,400 --> 00:00:51,280 Human rights groups now say that at least 25 people have been 17 00:00:51,280 --> 00:00:54,520 killed, more than 1000 arrested as police move into 18 00:00:54,520 --> 00:00:57,000 universities. And the judiciary warns that any 19 00:00:57,000 --> 00:00:59,360 period of concessions is now over. 20 00:00:59,840 --> 00:01:03,440 And into this crisis, just a few days after U.S. military strikes 21 00:01:03,440 --> 00:01:06,520 against Caracas and the abduction of President Maduro 22 00:01:06,520 --> 00:01:10,160 and his wife, comes fresh intervention from Donald Trump, 23 00:01:10,560 --> 00:01:14,560 vowing that the US, yes, the US will defend Iranian protesters, 24 00:01:14,840 --> 00:01:18,800 prompting Tehran to accuse Trump of psychological warfare. 25 00:01:19,160 --> 00:01:21,800 Well, joining me now to discuss all this is Professor Ali 26 00:01:21,800 --> 00:01:24,720 Ansari, a leading voice in Iran's modern history, and 27 00:01:24,720 --> 00:01:28,200 Doctor Salam Vakil, Director of Middle East and North Africa 28 00:01:28,200 --> 00:01:30,640 Programme at Chatham House. Welcome to you both. 29 00:01:31,000 --> 00:01:33,840 Let's try and first of all, get some sort of idea of what's 30 00:01:33,840 --> 00:01:37,360 going on inside Tehran, inside Iran. 31 00:01:37,360 --> 00:01:40,040 There's other 27 provinces. Ali, first to you. 32 00:01:40,120 --> 00:01:44,240 How serious is this and compared to the unrest of a few years ago 33 00:01:44,240 --> 00:01:46,360 when people descended on the streets of the big cities? 34 00:01:46,680 --> 00:01:49,080 In terms of, of, of numbers involved, they're probably not 35 00:01:49,080 --> 00:01:52,200 as large as they were in 2022 or indeed in 2019, but they seem to 36 00:01:52,200 --> 00:01:55,680 be broader. They certainly became much more 37 00:01:55,680 --> 00:01:59,480 violent much earlier than they had in, in previous occasions. 38 00:01:59,840 --> 00:02:02,360 And you, you, you know, you certainly get the, the, the mood 39 00:02:02,360 --> 00:02:06,640 music is, is, is turning again. It, this is not a sort of a 40 00:02:06,640 --> 00:02:10,240 call, this is a, this is a, a protest that's erupted from 41 00:02:10,720 --> 00:02:13,960 economic obviously discontent, but it's rather swiftly turned 42 00:02:13,960 --> 00:02:17,080 into a political, you know, political challenge to the 43 00:02:17,080 --> 00:02:19,480 regime. And it's just yet another, you 44 00:02:19,480 --> 00:02:22,480 know, cycle of protests that the regime is having to cope with. 45 00:02:22,480 --> 00:02:25,840 And it's, it's, you know, every time these protests emerge, it 46 00:02:25,840 --> 00:02:28,840 gets weaker and weaker. I mean, it, it, it has less room 47 00:02:28,840 --> 00:02:31,840 for manoeuvre. It has less capabilities to deal 48 00:02:31,840 --> 00:02:34,080 with things. And, you know, the real problem 49 00:02:34,080 --> 00:02:37,240 for the regime here is that now it's decided now is the time to 50 00:02:37,240 --> 00:02:40,080 reform in the middle of a fully fledged sort of like political 51 00:02:40,080 --> 00:02:42,400 crisis. And, you know, most of us 52 00:02:42,400 --> 00:02:44,560 observing Iran would have thought that the time for 53 00:02:44,560 --> 00:02:47,000 serious structural reform would have been much, much earlier, 54 00:02:47,600 --> 00:02:50,360 certainly several years ago and and not now. 55 00:02:50,640 --> 00:02:53,240 So the threat to the regime really is that its own response 56 00:02:53,240 --> 00:02:56,400 to what's going on, its inability to respond in some 57 00:02:56,400 --> 00:02:59,440 ways or, or its unwillingness to respond is actually going to 58 00:02:59,440 --> 00:03:03,160 make matters much, much worse. And so, you know, I, I often use 59 00:03:03,160 --> 00:03:06,680 this phrase that the regime is dying a death by 1000 cuts and 60 00:03:07,000 --> 00:03:08,520 anyone of which could prove fatal. 61 00:03:08,520 --> 00:03:11,960 So this is the way I I, I tend to look at things that it it 62 00:03:11,960 --> 00:03:15,280 could subside, but it could very easily tip over. 63 00:03:15,280 --> 00:03:17,640 Salam. I remember from my very vaguely, 64 00:03:17,640 --> 00:03:20,720 from my Iranian revolutionary history that in the revolution 65 00:03:20,720 --> 00:03:25,000 in 79, it was the Bizarres, the merchant class of big cities 66 00:03:25,000 --> 00:03:27,880 like Tehran turning against the Shah that made all the 67 00:03:27,880 --> 00:03:29,520 difference. Is that what we're seeing right 68 00:03:29,520 --> 00:03:31,440 now? And explain to us the the 69 00:03:31,440 --> 00:03:34,000 context of this economic crisis. Sure. 70 00:03:34,000 --> 00:03:36,840 Well, happy to be with you for this important discussion. 71 00:03:38,520 --> 00:03:42,320 Let's start first with the revolution because you reference 72 00:03:42,320 --> 00:03:45,480 the importance of the bazaar. And I think certainly strikes 73 00:03:45,480 --> 00:03:52,000 and the support of the bazaar has been important for the 74 00:03:52,000 --> 00:03:55,640 revolutionary momentum going into 1979. 75 00:03:55,640 --> 00:03:59,360 But the principal protests that began were actually 1977 and 76 00:03:59,360 --> 00:04:08,120 19781979 was the sort of end of the Shaw's monarchy and the 77 00:04:08,120 --> 00:04:13,320 beginning of what was an unknown for Iran. 78 00:04:13,680 --> 00:04:17,880 I think the protests that we're seeing are being very much 79 00:04:18,720 --> 00:04:26,640 instigated by a huge pressure on Iranians from an economic 80 00:04:26,640 --> 00:04:29,640 crisis, currency collapse, if you will. 81 00:04:29,640 --> 00:04:33,760 Inflation is above 50% week by week. 82 00:04:33,760 --> 00:04:38,640 Prices of basic staples from eggs to milk to rice are just 83 00:04:38,640 --> 00:04:40,480 increasing in extraordinary ways. 84 00:04:40,480 --> 00:04:45,920 And, and this just is making life incredibly hopeless, if not 85 00:04:46,760 --> 00:04:49,440 sort of at a dead end for Iran. And I think that's what 86 00:04:49,440 --> 00:04:53,720 precipitated that. What began as strikes quickly 87 00:04:53,720 --> 00:04:58,200 spread into universities and then spread out into small 88 00:04:58,200 --> 00:05:02,840 towns, primarily on the western side of Iran, but not solely. 89 00:05:02,840 --> 00:05:06,120 And, you know, I think there are different dynamics at play. 90 00:05:06,120 --> 00:05:08,880 But what's driving the protests are economic issues, 91 00:05:08,880 --> 00:05:12,600 hopelessness, people that feel like they have nothing to lose. 92 00:05:14,080 --> 00:05:19,480 And this, the system, the Iranian elected and unelected 93 00:05:19,480 --> 00:05:22,640 system, have taken a new approach. 94 00:05:22,760 --> 00:05:28,000 The Ali referred to trying to acknowledge that they've made 95 00:05:28,000 --> 00:05:34,160 mistakes, trying to appeal for mediation, engaging in some 96 00:05:34,160 --> 00:05:38,600 important subsidy reform and currency exchange rate 97 00:05:38,600 --> 00:05:42,240 unification. But those measures on their own 98 00:05:42,240 --> 00:05:47,080 aren't real solutions. Iran's problem is structural, 99 00:05:47,080 --> 00:05:52,000 its systemic, and it requires the Iranian political 100 00:05:52,000 --> 00:05:56,680 establishment to align, to unify, and to agree on 101 00:05:56,880 --> 00:05:59,440 negotiations with the US administration. 102 00:05:59,960 --> 00:06:05,080 It's only through a protracted negotiations that Iran can solve 103 00:06:05,080 --> 00:06:10,480 its economic crisis by time with its population that is deeply 104 00:06:10,480 --> 00:06:15,640 frustrated and had enough, as well as of course address it's 105 00:06:15,640 --> 00:06:17,800 regional and geopolitical challenges. 106 00:06:17,960 --> 00:06:20,200 I mean, Ali, you mentioned 1000 cuts there. 107 00:06:20,520 --> 00:06:24,080 And, you know, we've been talking to people inside Iran 108 00:06:24,120 --> 00:06:25,520 all day long, you know, on the phone. 109 00:06:25,520 --> 00:06:28,080 And what they're basically telling us is that this is the 110 00:06:28,080 --> 00:06:30,360 final store. They put up with so much, you 111 00:06:30,360 --> 00:06:33,920 know, nonsense over the years with so much repression, so many 112 00:06:33,920 --> 00:06:36,600 kind of failed opportunities, so many limited horizons. 113 00:06:36,920 --> 00:06:40,240 And along comes this, you know, renewed version of a long 114 00:06:40,240 --> 00:06:43,520 standing economic crisis. And they've simply had enough. 115 00:06:44,000 --> 00:06:46,960 Is that accurate? And and when it does boil over, 116 00:06:47,320 --> 00:06:51,600 you know when that thousandth cut appears, is it decisive? 117 00:06:51,840 --> 00:06:53,440 Well, I think it, I think it could tip. 118 00:06:53,440 --> 00:06:54,840 I mean, this, this, this is the issue. 119 00:06:54,840 --> 00:06:56,080 I mean, it could have tipped earlier. 120 00:06:56,360 --> 00:07:00,320 They've, they've managed to sort of to contain previous protests. 121 00:07:00,320 --> 00:07:02,680 But the fact is, you know, Sanam was saying earlier, they haven't 122 00:07:02,680 --> 00:07:05,880 actually dealt with any of the serious structural issues that 123 00:07:05,920 --> 00:07:08,720 that affect the, the Iranian political economy. 124 00:07:08,720 --> 00:07:10,280 And I mean, there's massive corruption. 125 00:07:10,280 --> 00:07:13,040 And of course they will always look abroad and say, well, we 126 00:07:13,040 --> 00:07:15,240 have a lot of pressure from abroad and the sanctions and of 127 00:07:15,240 --> 00:07:18,680 course that doesn't help. But I don't myself see it as the 128 00:07:18,680 --> 00:07:22,640 central cause behind the, the, the, the problem in, in Iran, 129 00:07:22,640 --> 00:07:26,920 which is, which is essentially that you have an exemplary case 130 00:07:26,920 --> 00:07:29,560 of bad governance. I mean, it's, it's enormously 131 00:07:29,560 --> 00:07:31,760 bad. And they, they've managed 132 00:07:31,760 --> 00:07:36,680 somehow to sort of maintain a, a, a sort of an ideological, I 133 00:07:36,680 --> 00:07:39,520 suppose, a conviction among among those core supporters to 134 00:07:39,520 --> 00:07:41,600 keep them going. But I think you're quite right. 135 00:07:41,600 --> 00:07:45,080 And it's the sense I get from people often, you know, not very 136 00:07:45,080 --> 00:07:47,360 politically minded people, but they've just had enough. 137 00:07:47,360 --> 00:07:50,320 And there's a huge amount of anger among people now. 138 00:07:50,560 --> 00:07:53,080 Some will go out and demonstrate, Others will just 139 00:07:53,080 --> 00:07:54,600 sit tight and wait to see what happens. 140 00:07:54,640 --> 00:07:56,880 Others may go on strike. I mean, I think we have to keep 141 00:07:56,880 --> 00:07:59,120 an eye out for the strike. And I think ultimately you have 142 00:07:59,120 --> 00:08:01,640 to see what happens with the security services and, and, and, 143 00:08:01,640 --> 00:08:04,720 and those, those tools that the regime has to keep matters 144 00:08:04,720 --> 00:08:06,400 suppressed. We know, for instance, in the 145 00:08:06,400 --> 00:08:11,800 Massa Amini demonstrations and protests that in some cases, you 146 00:08:11,800 --> 00:08:14,800 know, there was a lot of reluctance among some elements 147 00:08:14,800 --> 00:08:17,280 to actually indulge in some of the repression going on. 148 00:08:17,280 --> 00:08:19,520 So we have to watch closely and see what happens now. 149 00:08:19,800 --> 00:08:22,680 And I think the longer this drags out with everything else 150 00:08:22,680 --> 00:08:24,320 that's going on. And, you know, we mentioned 151 00:08:24,320 --> 00:08:26,480 earlier, the international environment isn't terribly good. 152 00:08:27,520 --> 00:08:31,360 You know, it, it's a you know, it, it, it's, it doesn't bode 153 00:08:31,360 --> 00:08:33,559 well. And we should add here also, and 154 00:08:33,559 --> 00:08:36,799 I mean, I know this is a, it's certainly interesting. 155 00:08:36,799 --> 00:08:39,159 As a historian, I can tell you that there's a huge amount of 156 00:08:39,159 --> 00:08:40,880 pack of nostalgia going on in the air. 157 00:08:41,280 --> 00:08:43,400 And it is nostalgia. For the family, the former 158 00:08:43,400 --> 00:08:45,200 shark. Yes, I mean, so basically they 159 00:08:45,200 --> 00:08:48,360 they, they, they've been fed a steady diet over the last 10 or 160 00:08:48,360 --> 00:08:51,520 15 years of sort of films and other things of what was going 161 00:08:51,520 --> 00:08:55,880 on prior to 1979. And, you know, obviously this 162 00:08:55,880 --> 00:08:59,200 has, you know, told a younger generation generation, you know, 163 00:08:59,240 --> 00:09:03,320 the, the, the younger generations that they that life 164 00:09:03,320 --> 00:09:05,040 could be different. You know, it's as simple as 165 00:09:05,040 --> 00:09:06,560 that. It's it's a visual treat. 166 00:09:06,920 --> 00:09:11,000 And of course, you know, what you're seeing 46 years after the 167 00:09:11,000 --> 00:09:14,080 revolution, a chance that I think many of us would never 168 00:09:14,080 --> 00:09:16,440 have really thought would be heard again in Iran, which is, 169 00:09:16,440 --> 00:09:18,600 you know, Long live the king. I mean it, it's quite 170 00:09:18,600 --> 00:09:21,200 extraordinary. But it's a very sad indictment, 171 00:09:21,200 --> 00:09:24,160 I have to say, if you pulled to look at it that way, or a poor 172 00:09:24,160 --> 00:09:26,520 indictment on the way in which the Islamic Republic has run 173 00:09:26,520 --> 00:09:29,120 affairs. SO22 questions. 174 00:09:29,120 --> 00:09:32,400 The first one is briefly do you think repression still works in 175 00:09:33,560 --> 00:09:35,840 as it did a couple of years ago? Absolutely. 176 00:09:36,280 --> 00:09:38,920 The repression and the repressive capacity of the state 177 00:09:38,920 --> 00:09:43,120 is very much underway. You yourself outlined the very 178 00:09:43,120 --> 00:09:48,280 many tragic deaths that we are learning about the detention and 179 00:09:48,280 --> 00:09:51,360 arrests of of over 1000 people so far. 180 00:09:51,360 --> 00:09:56,240 I expect it to go higher. What the Islamic Republic has 181 00:09:56,880 --> 00:10:02,440 developed through decades of managing protests is a crackdown 182 00:10:02,440 --> 00:10:08,200 playbook, and they are using it. And with every protest they 183 00:10:08,560 --> 00:10:12,680 learn and they adapt and at the same time they round up 184 00:10:12,680 --> 00:10:14,880 dissenters from within the system itself. 185 00:10:14,880 --> 00:10:18,920 So I fully expect that repression to still be an 186 00:10:18,920 --> 00:10:23,120 important tool for the system survival. 187 00:10:23,400 --> 00:10:29,240 And without all of the features of a revolution, which include a 188 00:10:29,240 --> 00:10:35,160 breakdown of the elite, shifts from the army or the security 189 00:10:35,160 --> 00:10:38,560 services, I I see the Islamic Republic still very much in 190 00:10:38,560 --> 00:10:42,680 command and control. And while this protest is indeed 191 00:10:42,680 --> 00:10:46,880 threatening and I think was certainly inevitable, I don't 192 00:10:46,880 --> 00:10:51,720 think that this is the one that everyone is hoping for. 193 00:10:52,240 --> 00:10:56,520 Is this part of maybe a cycle of protests that can eventually 194 00:10:56,520 --> 00:11:00,800 become revolutionary or lead to a change in the regime? 195 00:11:00,840 --> 00:11:03,600 I think so. But it's not going to be the one 196 00:11:03,600 --> 00:11:07,920 that necessarily leads to the collapse of the Islamic 197 00:11:07,920 --> 00:11:09,920 Republic. I think that is something we're 198 00:11:09,920 --> 00:11:15,200 living through and witnessing, but I certainly don't think that 199 00:11:15,640 --> 00:11:18,360 the system is going to just fall overnight. 200 00:11:18,440 --> 00:11:24,920 I think it's important to walk through what is and was is not 201 00:11:24,920 --> 00:11:27,360 possible for Iranians. I think certainly there's 202 00:11:27,360 --> 00:11:30,200 nostalgia, but I think that nostalgia isn't necessarily 203 00:11:30,200 --> 00:11:34,280 based on reality. It's it's based on sort of myth. 204 00:11:34,600 --> 00:11:38,000 Young people clearly haven't opened their history books and 205 00:11:38,000 --> 00:11:41,000 perhaps they should read 1 of Professor Ali Ansari's history 206 00:11:41,000 --> 00:11:45,320 books to remind themselves of life under the Palavi monarchy. 207 00:11:45,480 --> 00:11:50,760 A Palavi monarchy that was certainly more secular and 208 00:11:50,760 --> 00:11:55,880 certainly socially liberal, but one that also had a security 209 00:11:55,880 --> 00:12:01,040 force that was quite brutal and arrested and and detained plenty 210 00:12:01,040 --> 00:12:04,040 of students. A Pan Levy monarchy actually. 211 00:12:04,040 --> 00:12:06,960 Also, I'd like to remind people in the region of the Middle East 212 00:12:06,960 --> 00:12:09,120 that are also nostalgic for the Pan Levy's. 213 00:12:09,320 --> 00:12:12,920 Pan Levy monarchy didn't just sit tight within Iran's borders. 214 00:12:13,520 --> 00:12:17,600 Pan Levy monarchy supported proxy groups in Kurdistan and in 215 00:12:17,600 --> 00:12:20,720 southern Lebanon. The Pan Levy monarchy took the 216 00:12:21,600 --> 00:12:26,920 islands from the UAE in 1971 and also laid claim to Bahrain in 217 00:12:26,920 --> 00:12:30,200 1969. At questions that I've also 218 00:12:30,200 --> 00:12:33,760 asked Reza Panavi himself. But if we talk about Reza Panavi 219 00:12:33,760 --> 00:12:37,000 himself, it's important to think about his biography, what he 220 00:12:37,000 --> 00:12:40,440 brings to the table. There was an opportunity after 221 00:12:40,440 --> 00:12:45,160 the Masa Amini protests to bring together a group of the Iranian 222 00:12:45,160 --> 00:12:48,640 diaspora that very much fell apart because of competition, 223 00:12:48,840 --> 00:12:53,080 because Reza Pandavi didn't want to work as part of a team. 224 00:12:53,600 --> 00:12:57,320 And I'll be very honest, as someone who is regularly trolled 225 00:12:57,320 --> 00:13:02,080 by monarchists who can't stand that, I would like to see a more 226 00:13:02,080 --> 00:13:05,280 democratic Iran rather than a monarchical Iran. 227 00:13:05,920 --> 00:13:11,000 I find the people around Reza Pandavi to not really reflect or 228 00:13:11,240 --> 00:13:17,120 demonstrate the values and principles that are needed in a 229 00:13:17,200 --> 00:13:21,160 sort of new governance structure that would come after the 230 00:13:21,160 --> 00:13:24,680 Islamic Republic. So I I refuse to think that he 231 00:13:24,680 --> 00:13:29,080 is the best and the brightest. And I certainly think that Iran 232 00:13:29,920 --> 00:13:34,920 and Iranians that have exported themselves across the world have 233 00:13:36,200 --> 00:13:40,120 definitely produced more sound and capable people than someone 234 00:13:40,120 --> 00:13:43,880 who's sat in the in Bethesda for 46 years really actually not 235 00:13:43,880 --> 00:13:45,920 developing his credentials. OK. 236 00:13:46,120 --> 00:13:48,640 Ali, do you think, is there any evidence at all that the Trump 237 00:13:48,640 --> 00:13:52,880 administration is talking to the son of the late Shah about a 238 00:13:52,880 --> 00:13:55,120 possible transition? I mean, it's it, it is 239 00:13:55,120 --> 00:13:57,440 interesting because you do get, you know, the odd commentary 240 00:13:57,440 --> 00:13:58,880 coming out of the Trump White House. 241 00:13:58,880 --> 00:14:02,160 But on the other hand, it seems to be also they, they, they are 242 00:14:02,160 --> 00:14:04,720 alert enough to the notion that any change or any significant 243 00:14:04,720 --> 00:14:06,120 change will come from within the country. 244 00:14:06,520 --> 00:14:09,440 And I think most people are, are, are aware of that. 245 00:14:09,440 --> 00:14:12,200 I mean, the, the nostalgia is, is, is really developed on the 246 00:14:12,200 --> 00:14:14,200 back of, you know, in the sense of Salam says, the sort of 247 00:14:14,200 --> 00:14:17,440 social and economic development of the country of the 50 years 248 00:14:17,440 --> 00:14:20,320 prior to, prior to the revolution. 249 00:14:20,320 --> 00:14:22,440 And, and of course, the revolution basically inherited a 250 00:14:22,440 --> 00:14:24,600 fairly powerful state. I mean, we, we shouldn't, we 251 00:14:24,600 --> 00:14:28,560 shouldn't underestimate that. And, you know, it took both the 252 00:14:28,560 --> 00:14:31,240 good and the bad of that state and, and, and basically, I think 253 00:14:31,240 --> 00:14:34,480 May, may discarded the good and made the bad very, very much 254 00:14:34,480 --> 00:14:36,600 worse. But it's, it's, it's, you know, 255 00:14:36,600 --> 00:14:39,480 that there are clear indications for people, as we were saying 256 00:14:39,480 --> 00:14:42,240 earlier, who are quite desperate about, you know, what's going 257 00:14:42,240 --> 00:14:44,640 on. You know, the, the, the general 258 00:14:44,640 --> 00:14:49,480 economic, the, the situation of Pahlevi Iran is, is, is, is 259 00:14:49,480 --> 00:14:51,960 obviously attractive to them. And, and you know, those, those 260 00:14:51,960 --> 00:14:53,840 were the days, for instance, in a very simple way that the 261 00:14:53,840 --> 00:14:56,440 Iranian passport could get you to many different countries 262 00:14:56,440 --> 00:14:58,800 without a visa, for instance. I mean, now it's, it's basically 263 00:14:58,800 --> 00:15:00,360 impossible. So there's all that. 264 00:15:00,360 --> 00:15:03,880 But I also agree that, you know, I think that Reza Pahlavi would 265 00:15:03,880 --> 00:15:06,760 make his would, would, would make his position considerably 266 00:15:06,760 --> 00:15:09,400 stronger, shall we say, if he actually developed a good 267 00:15:09,400 --> 00:15:13,160 constitutional platform and a democratic platform in which he, 268 00:15:13,160 --> 00:15:14,680 you know, in, in which he wanted to pursue. 269 00:15:14,680 --> 00:15:16,600 And of course, you know, we haven't really seen any of that 270 00:15:16,600 --> 00:15:18,920 so far. So I mean, it, it doesn't, you 271 00:15:18,920 --> 00:15:21,960 know, I think the nostalgia is precisely that it's a sort of a 272 00:15:22,680 --> 00:15:25,560 rather vague notion of the fact that, well, things were better 273 00:15:25,560 --> 00:15:28,160 once. And, and as I said, it's, it's, 274 00:15:28,160 --> 00:15:31,120 it's a reflection really of how bad things have become. 275 00:15:31,600 --> 00:15:33,120 So let's get on to Donald Trump then. 276 00:15:33,160 --> 00:15:36,680 I mean, is it, is it possible, do you think that he will come 277 00:15:36,680 --> 00:15:39,440 good on his threats first to you, Ali, of some kind of 278 00:15:39,440 --> 00:15:42,520 intervention in Iran? And if he does so, will he do it 279 00:15:42,520 --> 00:15:45,400 through his proxies in the form of Benjamin Netanyahu? 280 00:15:45,400 --> 00:15:47,760 Because that is the other thing that's changed in the last few 281 00:15:47,760 --> 00:15:50,000 years. We had that mini 12 day war 282 00:15:50,200 --> 00:15:52,520 between Israel and Iran with American intervention. 283 00:15:52,520 --> 00:15:54,440 I mean, it's certainly very possible, but I mean, I think 284 00:15:54,440 --> 00:15:59,320 the most important thing here is that he's he's basically said in 285 00:15:59,360 --> 00:16:01,360 only the way that he can say it, it has to be said that, you 286 00:16:01,360 --> 00:16:03,840 know, we're we're watching and, you know, obviously he says then 287 00:16:03,840 --> 00:16:07,600 we'll take action. And I think that probably has 288 00:16:07,600 --> 00:16:10,680 done quite a bit in Tehran. I mean, particularly after the 289 00:16:10,680 --> 00:16:14,480 whole Maduro business that, you know, people have realised here 290 00:16:14,480 --> 00:16:17,200 that there is there is a, you know, we have to remember that 291 00:16:17,200 --> 00:16:20,040 when President Trump was first elected, there was quite a lot 292 00:16:20,040 --> 00:16:22,680 of enthusiasm in Iran about the fact that they thought they 293 00:16:22,680 --> 00:16:24,280 could do business with a businessman. 294 00:16:24,280 --> 00:16:27,920 Basically that here was a Republican who didn't give two 295 00:16:27,920 --> 00:16:30,800 hoots about human rights and, you know, and he was a 296 00:16:30,800 --> 00:16:32,840 businessman. So, you know, the art of the 297 00:16:32,840 --> 00:16:35,480 deal sold very well in Persian translation, it has to be said. 298 00:16:35,480 --> 00:16:39,320 So initially they had some quite positive notions and of course 299 00:16:39,320 --> 00:16:41,760 when they were dealing with Witkoff and others prior to the 300 00:16:42,240 --> 00:16:44,880 prior to the war, there were a lot of very positive voices 301 00:16:44,880 --> 00:16:47,680 coming out of Tehran about the Trump administration and rather 302 00:16:47,680 --> 00:16:51,280 less complimentary commentary coming about the Europeans. 303 00:16:51,960 --> 00:16:54,520 Now I think they've sort of realised that that just isn't, 304 00:16:54,760 --> 00:16:56,600 you know, that isn't going to happen. 305 00:16:56,600 --> 00:16:59,680 And, and I think, you know, that the whole Trump intervention is 306 00:16:59,680 --> 00:17:04,319 just another problem for them to try and accommodate and to try 307 00:17:04,319 --> 00:17:07,000 and sort of factor into their decision making, which I have to 308 00:17:07,000 --> 00:17:10,040 say at the moment, I mean, they, they, I still think they're, as 309 00:17:10,040 --> 00:17:12,680 someone said to me, you know, badly concussed after the 12 day 310 00:17:12,720 --> 00:17:14,960 war and they still really haven't decided what they're 311 00:17:14,960 --> 00:17:17,760 doing so. Salim one of the things, of 312 00:17:17,760 --> 00:17:21,440 course, one of the reasons why this the 12 Day war was for the 313 00:17:21,440 --> 00:17:24,680 ostensible reason was to try and contain Iran's nuclear program. 314 00:17:24,680 --> 00:17:28,079 And then, of course, Donald Trump got very huffy and puffy 315 00:17:28,079 --> 00:17:30,000 when it was suggested to him that actually not all the 316 00:17:30,000 --> 00:17:33,040 nuclear capability had been totally obliterated as he 317 00:17:33,040 --> 00:17:35,320 claimed. What do we know about Iran's 318 00:17:35,320 --> 00:17:37,680 nuclear program since the the June war? 319 00:17:37,960 --> 00:17:39,440 You know, had they started rebuilding? 320 00:17:39,440 --> 00:17:41,440 Had they started to regroup? Do we know? 321 00:17:41,560 --> 00:17:50,560 Well, what we we do know is that the US and intelligence agencies 322 00:17:50,560 --> 00:17:57,000 more broadly agree that Iran has halted enrichment and the, the, 323 00:17:57,240 --> 00:18:00,240 the program as we knew it is, is frozen. 324 00:18:00,920 --> 00:18:03,600 Obviously, we don't know if there's anything incendiary 325 00:18:03,600 --> 00:18:06,520 happening underground, but certainly I would imagine that 326 00:18:06,520 --> 00:18:11,440 Israel and the US are, of course, keeping track and, and 327 00:18:11,440 --> 00:18:14,400 using satellites to monitor these facilities. 328 00:18:14,400 --> 00:18:18,200 Fordo hasn't been touched and the International Atomic Energy 329 00:18:18,200 --> 00:18:22,640 Agency hasn't gone back into Iran to examine the facilities 330 00:18:22,640 --> 00:18:26,680 as well. So for the time being, Iran is 331 00:18:26,680 --> 00:18:30,920 actually playing ball and and appeasing Trump with this 332 00:18:30,920 --> 00:18:35,320 narrative, whether it's true or untrue that the nuclear program 333 00:18:35,320 --> 00:18:39,160 is is frozen in time. But that isn't on its own going 334 00:18:39,160 --> 00:18:44,200 to prevent perhaps another strike or another round between 335 00:18:44,200 --> 00:18:47,280 Israel and Iran because Prime Minister Netanyahu Yahoo was in 336 00:18:47,280 --> 00:18:51,680 Mar a Lago and even prior to that making a case that Iran is 337 00:18:51,920 --> 00:18:54,920 recapitalizing its ballistic missiles. 338 00:18:55,720 --> 00:18:59,520 And indeed, of course, the Islamic Republic is preparing 339 00:18:59,920 --> 00:19:03,360 building back its defense capabilities for what it is 340 00:19:03,360 --> 00:19:06,920 calculating will be a more deadly but perhaps a needed 341 00:19:06,920 --> 00:19:10,720 round to create balance between a Tehran and Tel Aviv. 342 00:19:10,720 --> 00:19:15,720 But also to create the conditions for talks, which is 343 00:19:15,720 --> 00:19:20,120 ultimately what Tehran needs. Iran is calculating that it has 344 00:19:21,080 --> 00:19:26,240 the ability to withstand a longer fight than the Israelis 345 00:19:26,240 --> 00:19:28,280 do. That's one. 346 00:19:28,280 --> 00:19:34,000 And two, they think that, you know, obviously they can survive 347 00:19:34,000 --> 00:19:38,360 and come out less bloody. That would create a more level 348 00:19:38,360 --> 00:19:42,160 playing field for negotiations. But you know, this is the year 349 00:19:42,280 --> 00:19:44,200 where that could certainly play out. 350 00:19:44,760 --> 00:19:49,720 The Israelis might be misreading the protests in Iran and and 351 00:19:49,920 --> 00:19:53,720 think that the system is weak and thereby this is a great 352 00:19:53,720 --> 00:19:55,800 opportunity to weaken it further. 353 00:19:55,960 --> 00:19:58,240 Right. I interviewed the Iranian 354 00:19:58,240 --> 00:20:00,480 foreign minister who died in that helicopter crash a few 355 00:20:00,480 --> 00:20:02,880 years ago. And my final question to him, 356 00:20:02,880 --> 00:20:05,960 and he didn't like it, was are you more afraid of a Donald 357 00:20:05,960 --> 00:20:08,680 Trump election? Or your own people. 358 00:20:08,960 --> 00:20:11,000 And he said, you know, we're afraid of the people love us, 359 00:20:11,000 --> 00:20:13,800 we're a great democracy, and we are not afraid of Donald Trump 360 00:20:13,800 --> 00:20:17,040 whatsoever. I wonder, Salaam, if Trump were 361 00:20:17,040 --> 00:20:21,320 to repeat his threats, if you're an oppositional figure inside 362 00:20:21,320 --> 00:20:24,640 Tehran, is that helpful or is that unhelpful? 363 00:20:25,920 --> 00:20:29,200 It's a tricky 1. I think that, you know, Donald 364 00:20:29,200 --> 00:20:32,560 Trump's threats and what we have seen over the past few days in 365 00:20:32,560 --> 00:20:36,200 Venezuela is a cautionary tale for the Islamic Republic and for 366 00:20:36,200 --> 00:20:39,800 Iranians, for the opposition, for those aspiring for something 367 00:20:39,800 --> 00:20:44,160 different. If, you know, certainly with 368 00:20:44,200 --> 00:20:47,520 young people out on the streets and really have had enough, 369 00:20:47,840 --> 00:20:51,960 yeah, maybe they feel more emboldened and they think Trump 370 00:20:51,960 --> 00:20:54,560 could be on their side. But I wouldn't trust Trump too 371 00:20:54,560 --> 00:20:58,960 much because at the same time, removing Ali Khamenei without 372 00:20:58,960 --> 00:21:02,800 actually sort of dismembering the structure of the Islamic 373 00:21:02,800 --> 00:21:07,360 Republic isn't going to provide or or, you know, give Iranians 374 00:21:07,360 --> 00:21:11,440 maybe what they seek. And so I think that we should be 375 00:21:11,480 --> 00:21:15,760 arguing for a more nuanced approach, nuanced analysis. 376 00:21:16,000 --> 00:21:20,360 Obviously, whatever change in the regime that is going to come 377 00:21:20,360 --> 00:21:23,600 through the death of Khamenei or the agency of Iranians 378 00:21:23,880 --> 00:21:27,960 themselves should come actually not with just thinking about 379 00:21:27,960 --> 00:21:30,800 getting rid of them, but thinking more deeply about what 380 00:21:30,880 --> 00:21:32,720 comes next. Right, Ali. 381 00:21:32,720 --> 00:21:36,240 I mean, we haven't talked to Al Khamenei, the supreme leader, at 382 00:21:36,240 --> 00:21:38,600 all. He is a very old man by all 383 00:21:38,600 --> 00:21:40,200 accounts. He is a very frail man. 384 00:21:40,520 --> 00:21:43,920 And he's come out of his, you know, summer bunker during the 385 00:21:43,920 --> 00:21:47,760 war looking even more frail. You know, are his days literally 386 00:21:47,760 --> 00:21:50,200 numbered? Is there a succession plan? 387 00:21:50,440 --> 00:21:54,280 And if there isn't 1 is that an opportunity for the regime to 388 00:21:54,280 --> 00:21:57,600 fall and the then, you know, the opposition to take over? 389 00:21:58,040 --> 00:22:01,120 Well, I think he's, he's definitely frail. 390 00:22:01,120 --> 00:22:03,640 I mean, in, in, in the sense that, you know, sooner or later, 391 00:22:03,640 --> 00:22:06,360 obviously the, the succession will have to, to kick in. 392 00:22:06,360 --> 00:22:09,640 I mean, it's, and, and it's been a bad year. 393 00:22:09,680 --> 00:22:11,200 I mean, it's been a bad year for him. 394 00:22:11,200 --> 00:22:14,920 And he's, and he's suddenly, certainly when you, when you 395 00:22:14,920 --> 00:22:17,520 listen to him, he's, he's less sure footed than he has been in 396 00:22:17,520 --> 00:22:19,000 the past. Even in these current protests, 397 00:22:19,000 --> 00:22:21,760 for instance, you know, the, the, the crackdown and the 398 00:22:21,760 --> 00:22:24,880 violence that took place, took place well before he even got a 399 00:22:24,880 --> 00:22:26,600 word in. I mean, normally he comes out 400 00:22:26,600 --> 00:22:28,760 and he says something, he has said something since, but 401 00:22:29,760 --> 00:22:32,840 originally, you know, obviously decisions were made without, you 402 00:22:32,840 --> 00:22:35,200 know, him, him actually making any public statements on it. 403 00:22:35,880 --> 00:22:38,600 I've always felt, and I've said this very clearly in the past, 404 00:22:38,600 --> 00:22:42,640 that I think he, his, his preferred succession is to hand 405 00:22:42,640 --> 00:22:45,400 over to his son. But I, I have to say, I think 406 00:22:45,400 --> 00:22:47,520 it's, it's probably less likely now. 407 00:22:47,520 --> 00:22:50,280 I mean, I, I think there are many people probably looking at 408 00:22:50,600 --> 00:22:54,360 the Islamic Republic and the whole concept of the, the, the, 409 00:22:54,440 --> 00:22:58,880 the supreme leader and probably thinking that when harmony dies, 410 00:22:58,880 --> 00:23:01,800 that might be the opportunity for some sort of serious change. 411 00:23:02,120 --> 00:23:06,040 Now, how easy that would be absent any other sort of 412 00:23:06,600 --> 00:23:09,040 development. And I'm, you know, I'm less 413 00:23:09,400 --> 00:23:12,400 convinced that the Islamic Republic is as stable as, as, as 414 00:23:12,680 --> 00:23:15,440 maybe Sanam suggested earlier. I mean, I, I think they're much, 415 00:23:15,440 --> 00:23:18,840 much more fragile than that. So depending on the decisions 416 00:23:18,840 --> 00:23:22,640 they make and how they go forward, yes, I mean, I, I think 417 00:23:22,640 --> 00:23:27,040 there could be an opportunity on his, on his passing for some, 418 00:23:27,040 --> 00:23:30,720 you know, some of the internal opposition, if you will, to come 419 00:23:30,720 --> 00:23:33,840 forward and, and, and, and, and start to provide an alternative. 420 00:23:34,240 --> 00:23:35,920 It's going to be painful, by the way. 421 00:23:35,920 --> 00:23:38,360 I mean, this is the problem. These deep structural sort of 422 00:23:38,360 --> 00:23:41,360 problems that Iran has are not going to be solved overnight. 423 00:23:41,360 --> 00:23:44,240 And I, I draw attention to the fact, you know, that we haven't 424 00:23:44,240 --> 00:23:46,480 really talked about that the environmental crisis hitting the 425 00:23:46,480 --> 00:23:49,240 country, which is enormous. I mean, it's far more 426 00:23:49,240 --> 00:23:51,120 catastrophic than I think people realize. 427 00:23:51,680 --> 00:23:53,160 And you had this. What do you mean by? 428 00:23:53,200 --> 00:23:55,000 That essentially they're running out of water. 429 00:23:55,000 --> 00:23:57,720 I mean, they're, you know, they, they have so mismanaged the 430 00:23:57,720 --> 00:24:00,760 water resources, which has been something that Iranian states 431 00:24:00,840 --> 00:24:04,120 from ancient times to the present have always been. 432 00:24:04,160 --> 00:24:07,000 You know, basically it's their primary task is to manage the 433 00:24:07,000 --> 00:24:09,680 water resources of the Iranian plateau and basically the 434 00:24:09,680 --> 00:24:12,760 Islamic Republic through over farming, poor planning, building 435 00:24:12,760 --> 00:24:15,520 dams in the wrong place, so on and so forth, has basically 436 00:24:15,520 --> 00:24:18,200 drained much of the aquifers underneath the Iranian plateau. 437 00:24:18,200 --> 00:24:21,800 So, and they're in a very serious problem of being unable 438 00:24:21,800 --> 00:24:25,680 to supply many of the major cities with water not on on a 439 00:24:25,680 --> 00:24:28,160 regular basis. And and we came precariously 440 00:24:28,160 --> 00:24:31,400 close to what people call day 0 where they were actually going 441 00:24:31,400 --> 00:24:33,600 to be running out of water in total in some of the major 442 00:24:33,600 --> 00:24:36,120 cities. Now they've had a period of sort 443 00:24:36,120 --> 00:24:39,920 of snow and rainfall in others. But again, it's part of the 444 00:24:39,920 --> 00:24:43,560 fallacy I think that occurs even within Iranian, you know, 445 00:24:43,560 --> 00:24:46,240 governmental outlet that they think that, you know, a couple 446 00:24:46,240 --> 00:24:48,000 of weeks of rainfall are going to solve the problem. 447 00:24:48,400 --> 00:24:50,480 It just isn't. It might delay the problem, but 448 00:24:50,480 --> 00:24:54,520 it's not solving the problem. And even those, you know, 449 00:24:54,880 --> 00:24:57,720 insiders such as Callantadi, who is the old minister of 450 00:24:57,720 --> 00:25:00,440 agriculture, I mean, he's basically done a mea culpa and 451 00:25:00,440 --> 00:25:02,080 basically said, you know, we screwed up. 452 00:25:02,080 --> 00:25:03,440 I mean, we screwed up very badly. 453 00:25:03,800 --> 00:25:06,680 And we should have planned 20 years ago for various sort of 454 00:25:06,680 --> 00:25:10,320 like environmental projects, dam building, irrigation and others, 455 00:25:10,320 --> 00:25:13,400 which we didn't do. And the aquifers are now down 456 00:25:13,400 --> 00:25:14,960 and they will not recover, he said. 457 00:25:14,960 --> 00:25:17,000 They will not recover to their previous levels. 458 00:25:17,200 --> 00:25:19,240 Interesting. Salam, let's talk a little bit 459 00:25:19,240 --> 00:25:21,720 about Iran's friends. I mean, George Bush used to have 460 00:25:21,720 --> 00:25:24,240 this phrase the axis of evil, and Iran was very much part of 461 00:25:24,240 --> 00:25:26,560 that. You know, are they getting a lot 462 00:25:26,560 --> 00:25:28,680 of support from the Russians? I know they've been providing 463 00:25:28,680 --> 00:25:31,200 the Russians with drones. Are they getting a lot of port 464 00:25:31,200 --> 00:25:32,560 from the support from the Chinese? 465 00:25:32,560 --> 00:25:34,560 I know the Chinese have been buying Iranian oil. 466 00:25:35,160 --> 00:25:36,960 You know, what's that relationship like? 467 00:25:36,960 --> 00:25:41,600 And are those friends of Iran motivated enough to support what 468 00:25:41,600 --> 00:25:45,840 could be a crumbling regime? I think the the the foreign 469 00:25:45,840 --> 00:25:48,720 relationships are certainly interesting to watch. 470 00:25:49,160 --> 00:25:53,840 I mean, I think the principle network of friends are Iran's 471 00:25:53,840 --> 00:25:55,800 counterweight to the axis of evil. 472 00:25:55,800 --> 00:25:57,840 It was called the axis of resistance. 473 00:25:58,240 --> 00:26:05,160 The the terminology developed in reaction to George W Bush's sort 474 00:26:05,160 --> 00:26:09,080 of cute phrasing. And the axis of resistance is 475 00:26:09,080 --> 00:26:13,480 the Iran sort of backed and built network of States and non 476 00:26:13,480 --> 00:26:17,480 state actors that support resistance against Israel and 477 00:26:17,520 --> 00:26:19,520 resistance against the United States. 478 00:26:19,800 --> 00:26:24,520 That's included Hezbollah, the Houthis groups in Iraq, and 479 00:26:24,680 --> 00:26:26,000 there have been serious setbacks. 480 00:26:26,000 --> 00:26:28,280 And they've all been massively weakened by the Israelis, 481 00:26:28,280 --> 00:26:29,680 haven't they? And the Israelis have really 482 00:26:29,680 --> 00:26:33,080 destroyed Iran's kind of regional empire, if you like. 483 00:26:34,000 --> 00:26:36,240 Weekend, I wouldn't say destroyed. 484 00:26:36,240 --> 00:26:38,680 And so this is where I think the nuance is a little important. 485 00:26:38,680 --> 00:26:40,680 Certainly there have been huge setbacks. 486 00:26:40,680 --> 00:26:43,720 I think the primary set back has been in the context of Syria, 487 00:26:44,040 --> 00:26:47,960 where for over 4 decades Iran cultivated a relationship with 488 00:26:47,960 --> 00:26:51,720 the Assad regime and with the assets now hanging in a Dasha 489 00:26:51,720 --> 00:26:57,400 and Moscow, Iran has, you know, lost all of that investment. 490 00:26:57,400 --> 00:27:01,760 What's happened also in Venezuela with Maduro, you know, 491 00:27:01,760 --> 00:27:04,680 obviously being removed is another other loss for Iran 492 00:27:04,680 --> 00:27:08,720 because that was a relationship that Iran cultivated in EU, s s 493 00:27:08,720 --> 00:27:12,640 Western Hemisphere. So there have been real setbacks 494 00:27:13,400 --> 00:27:17,840 in in that grouping. But to answer your question more 495 00:27:17,840 --> 00:27:22,440 specifically, ties with Russia and China are humming along. 496 00:27:22,440 --> 00:27:25,880 They're neither overwhelming, but they Iran has not been 497 00:27:25,880 --> 00:27:28,360 abandoned by these partners either. 498 00:27:29,920 --> 00:27:34,880 China continues to provide these sort of economic lifeline for 499 00:27:34,880 --> 00:27:38,680 the Islamic Republic. And there have been some 500 00:27:38,680 --> 00:27:43,120 suggestions that China has helped Iran recapitalize its 501 00:27:43,200 --> 00:27:46,320 ballistic missile program since the war last year. 502 00:27:46,320 --> 00:27:50,560 And the Russians are important, more important than are is often 503 00:27:50,720 --> 00:27:55,320 reported in security, intelligence and military ties. 504 00:27:55,320 --> 00:27:58,760 And of course the economic nature of the relationship is 505 00:27:58,760 --> 00:28:02,840 limited, but that's still 1 where the two countries 506 00:28:02,840 --> 00:28:04,800 collaborate. Let me just add one more thing 507 00:28:04,800 --> 00:28:08,920 about the region. While Iran's non state based 508 00:28:08,920 --> 00:28:15,400 relationships have certainly been less beneficial for Iran, 509 00:28:15,480 --> 00:28:19,520 Iran has improved its ties with almost all countries across the 510 00:28:19,520 --> 00:28:22,440 Middle East and North Africa and that has been a positive. 511 00:28:22,640 --> 00:28:27,240 Iran's normalization with the Arab world is in a stronger 512 00:28:27,240 --> 00:28:30,560 footing than it has ever been. I just want to ask you both, you 513 00:28:30,560 --> 00:28:32,560 know, to do something outrageous, which is a little 514 00:28:32,560 --> 00:28:34,480 prediction. I'm going to give you a couple 515 00:28:34,480 --> 00:28:39,080 of nuanced possibilities. So first, you, Ali, do you think 516 00:28:39,080 --> 00:28:43,080 by the end of the year we're going to see regime change in 517 00:28:43,080 --> 00:28:47,960 Iran brought about either by Donald Trump's intervention by 518 00:28:47,960 --> 00:28:51,560 the people uprising against the regime as we're seeing bits of 519 00:28:51,560 --> 00:28:55,680 happening right now, or will the regime carry on, perhaps 520 00:28:55,680 --> 00:28:59,840 rebooted by some kind of deal concocted by Steve Witkoff? 521 00:29:00,360 --> 00:29:03,000 Ali Well, on, on the qualification that historians 522 00:29:03,000 --> 00:29:05,640 never predict, Matt. So I, I, I want to put that 523 00:29:05,640 --> 00:29:09,800 caveat in there very clearly. I mean, I think, I think your 524 00:29:09,800 --> 00:29:11,720 former is more likely than the latter. 525 00:29:12,000 --> 00:29:14,640 But I want to be quite specific about the notion of regime 526 00:29:14,640 --> 00:29:17,200 change or regime collapse. I mean, I think that there is a 527 00:29:17,560 --> 00:29:20,000 serious possibility that there's going to be an economic collapse 528 00:29:20,560 --> 00:29:23,520 and that economic collapse will, will bring all sorts of things 529 00:29:23,640 --> 00:29:27,040 along with it. Whether that entails a, a, a 530 00:29:27,040 --> 00:29:29,760 sort of an element of sort of very direct regime change. 531 00:29:30,160 --> 00:29:34,240 You know, that that's a little bit more debatable because you 532 00:29:34,240 --> 00:29:36,640 know, those within the system will fight to the last minute, I 533 00:29:36,640 --> 00:29:39,160 suspect. But it could lead to a sort of 534 00:29:39,240 --> 00:29:42,280 a, an internal collapse of one sort or another. 535 00:29:42,480 --> 00:29:45,480 Not I should say, and let me emphasize this of the country 536 00:29:45,480 --> 00:29:48,200 per SE, but more of the system. It's the political system really 537 00:29:48,200 --> 00:29:50,320 that I'm thinking about. And, and one of the things we 538 00:29:50,320 --> 00:29:52,800 have to be very careful when we discuss these things, I think is 539 00:29:52,800 --> 00:29:56,000 to make clear, you know, what we're, what we're defining here. 540 00:29:56,000 --> 00:29:59,320 Because I think too many people conflate Iran with the Islamic 541 00:29:59,320 --> 00:30:01,800 Republic And, and the Islamic Republic is a political system. 542 00:30:01,800 --> 00:30:04,680 I don't think the the political system of the Islamic Republic 543 00:30:05,120 --> 00:30:07,080 as it is currently configured has a future. 544 00:30:07,280 --> 00:30:11,280 Salam What about you? I would say we could most likely 545 00:30:11,280 --> 00:30:16,400 see a change in the regime. Neither regime change I I don't 546 00:30:16,400 --> 00:30:18,680 see that as viable, but a change in the regime. 547 00:30:18,760 --> 00:30:21,160 A rebooting. A regime reboot. 548 00:30:21,720 --> 00:30:25,440 Well, it could be a reboot, but it depends on who comes up in 549 00:30:25,440 --> 00:30:28,760 the reboot. The international order and 550 00:30:29,000 --> 00:30:31,520 leaders around the world seem to be quite comfortable with 551 00:30:31,840 --> 00:30:36,880 pliable, amenable and sort of rebranded leaders. 552 00:30:37,120 --> 00:30:40,360 We saw that in 2025. And I think that that could very 553 00:30:40,360 --> 00:30:44,760 likely be a scenario we might see in Iran where, as you know, 554 00:30:44,760 --> 00:30:49,560 an Egypt model or a Syria model could work out as well for for 555 00:30:49,560 --> 00:30:51,760 Iran. But I do think that talks are 556 00:30:51,760 --> 00:30:53,720 still out there as a viable solution. 557 00:30:53,720 --> 00:30:57,720 I'm not sure the Islamic Republic is able or capable to 558 00:30:58,040 --> 00:31:01,960 deliver a deal they're good at. They're or they're supposedly 559 00:31:01,960 --> 00:31:04,280 good at negotiating. But I think we have to bend that 560 00:31:05,480 --> 00:31:09,240 idea at this point. And but I, you know, the talks I 561 00:31:09,240 --> 00:31:11,880 think are still a possibility for this year as well. 562 00:31:12,120 --> 00:31:14,440 And now that I've broken the ice and got you both into the 563 00:31:14,440 --> 00:31:18,280 prediction game, one final line. Will Donald Trump intervene 564 00:31:18,280 --> 00:31:22,280 military literally on behalf of the protesters, as he has 565 00:31:22,280 --> 00:31:24,560 threatened to do? Yes or no Saddam? 566 00:31:25,160 --> 00:31:26,200 No. OK. 567 00:31:26,200 --> 00:31:29,320 What about you, Ali? I think actually he's set 568 00:31:29,320 --> 00:31:31,880 himself a red line and he's very likely going to have to deliver 569 00:31:31,880 --> 00:31:34,640 on it, either through himself or his or his allies. 570 00:31:34,720 --> 00:31:36,360 Are you Israel? So that's a. 571 00:31:36,400 --> 00:31:38,160 Yes. I mean, I think if they continue 572 00:31:38,160 --> 00:31:42,440 in this way, he will, he will find himself having to deliver 573 00:31:42,440 --> 00:31:44,360 something. Now what that means, you know, I 574 00:31:44,640 --> 00:31:48,720 who knows? But yes, I mean, I think he 575 00:31:48,720 --> 00:31:51,320 he's, he's laid down a red line very clearly there and he'll 576 00:31:51,320 --> 00:31:52,680 look very silly if he does nothing. 577 00:31:52,840 --> 00:31:55,320 But we've got you both on the record, and we will get back to 578 00:31:55,320 --> 00:31:58,200 you if and when it is necessary. Hope. 579 00:31:58,200 --> 00:32:01,960 Sanam is right. OK, well, who knows? 580 00:32:02,520 --> 00:32:05,320 Thanks very much to both of you. Sanam Bakil, Ali Ansari, it's 581 00:32:05,560 --> 00:32:08,000 been a pleasure speaking to you. It's a really big issue at the 582 00:32:08,000 --> 00:32:09,440 moment. We're all focused on Venezuela, 583 00:32:09,440 --> 00:32:11,760 but this is this is another gathering storm. 584 00:32:11,760 --> 00:32:14,080 We can't take our eyes off it. Thanks to all of you for 585 00:32:14,080 --> 00:32:16,880 listening to the forecast. That's it from us here in 586 00:32:16,880 --> 00:32:18,640 Washington today. See you next time.