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The starter pistol was fired 
last night #10 declared a 

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leadership election and 
basically said coming up and go 

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if you're hard enough. 
All they have is their own 

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thirst for dominance. 
You end up in this absurd 

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situation where we're talking as
though Kieran Weirs are two 

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radically different politicians 
with radically different visions

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of the future. 
They're. 

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Not many unpopular politicians 
have people that will not desert

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them because they believe them 
to be authentic, at least to 

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some things and some principles.
And that is what Kier Starmer is

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completely lacking. 
And it's hard not to conclude 

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that the Labour Party is 
completely stuffed. 

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Hello and welcome to the 
forecast. 

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The tracers analogy was just too
easy. 

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Wes Streeting claims he's the 
victim of the worst attack on a 

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faithful since Joe Marla was 
banished from the final. 

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But who were the other players 
at the table seeking to banish a

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Wes Streeting challenge? 
Senior advisers to Keir Starmer 

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is all we're getting from the 
political editors who took the 

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calls with all eyes wondering if
the top man, Morgan McSweeney, 

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had authorised it. 
Streeting says whoever was 

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behind the briefings should be 
sacked and Lucy Powell was right

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about the toxic culture in 
Downing St. 

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Shabana Mahmoud's team also deny
that she's a traitor. 

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But the manifesto busting budget
is looming. 

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Labour is facing horrific poll 
racings. 

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Its MPs are in despair and Nigel
Farage is riding high after 

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months of torment. 
Is Keir Starmer now at the fire 

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of truth and facing his end 
game? 

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Joining me is the Labour 
strategist and commentator John 

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Mcternan. 
He was Tony Blair's political 

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director, the pollster Scarlett 
McGuire and the author and 

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Guardian columnist Zoe Williams.
Thank you all very much for 

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joining us, John. 
This is an extra, an ordinary 

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exercise in shooting yourself in
the foot. 

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I cannot believe it. 
This is so destructive and it 

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comes from #10 So the Prime 
Minister's got a choice. 

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He should sack Wes if he's lost 
confidence in him, or should 

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stack sack whoever authorised or
made this briefing or both. 

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And if you don't clean out #10 
then I think Wes Treaty would be

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advised to resign from the 
cabinet. 

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No confidence from the 
government, the Prime Minister 

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and actually launch a leadership
bid. 

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This is only going to be 
resolvable if there is a 

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contest, I mean. 
Did where's Streeting ramp up 

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the pressure this morning when 
he said yes they should be 

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sacked and that there is a toxic
culture and Downing St. 

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Lucy Powell was right all along.
I don't believe that any 

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staffer, however senior they 
are, should brief against a 

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cabinet minister. 
Staffers are always junior to 

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MPs and ministers and that is a 
breach of your contract, it's a 

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breach of your ethics, it's a 
breach of your loyalty to the 

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political party you're a member 
of. 

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And I think that's the problem 
here, that once this becomes 

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open and clear, there's a 
choice. 

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And the Prime Minister who does 
find it hard to make choices has

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either either backs his staff or
he backs his cabinet minister. 

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He's got to choose between the 
two of them. 

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And if he doesn't, it doesn't. 
If he doesn't, the crisis will 

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carry on. 
And even if he does, the crisis 

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is there, it's been revealed. 
Right. 

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But is it enough to sack a 
middle ranking or even senior 

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advisor when it's Morgan 
McSweeney who runs Downing St. 

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He's the chief of staff. 
He is the architect of this 

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government. 
He's often described as the man 

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who actually chose Keir Starmer 
rather than the other way 

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around. 
Is he the one who needs to go? 

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Look, what I think what the 
party needs is it's an honest 

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debate about the direction. 
The big dividing line in British

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politics at the moment is 
between people who like to 

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reform or the Tories who want to
cut public services and Labour 

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who won't, and the Greens who've
got fanciful ideas about wealth 

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taxes. 
This has got to go back to the 

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politics of it. 
But while it's about 

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personalities, either political 
personalities have a fight and 

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sort it out, or the briefers are
dealt with. 

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OK, well, that, that's, that's 
John not, not quite wanting to 

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call for Morgan Mcsweeney's head
by the sound of it. 

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Zoe, I mean, you have been, you 
described yourself, I think, as 

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drifting away from labour over a
period of time. 

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I mean with your head in your 
hands. 

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I mean, listen, I, I, I really 
feel like we're, we're sort of 

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kind of punching in the dark 
here a little bit. 

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The fact is that Morgan 
McSweeney, you said yourself, 

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did he put Kieran? 
Did he choose Kier rather than 

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Kier choosing him? 
Certainly he was. 

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Certainly that was the rumour at
the time that Kier became 

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leader. 
But there were also rumours at 

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the time that Kier was only ever
a placeholder. 

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They didn't expect to win the 
2024 election. 

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He was going to be the 
placeholder candidate to get the

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left of the party round back, 
back to the kind of land of 

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reality. 
And then he was going to be 

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replaced by where's anyway. 
These are all rumours, of 

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course, but what, what the, the,
the point is that when you have 

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a small group of people 
operating as though this party 

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is a plaything and the left is a
pain that needs to be neutered 

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or expelled, and they don't have
an actual project, all they have

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is their own thirst for 
dominance. 

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You're you end up in this absurd
situation where we're talking as

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though Kieran Weirs are two 
radically different politicians 

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with radically different visions
of the future. 

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They're not. 
They look exactly the same. 

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The reason they look exactly the
same is that they both look very

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technocratic. 
They they look like, you know, 

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robot guys who will just make 
things work. 

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People who say, oh, Wes is much 
more charismatic than Kia have 

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been in Westminster so much too 
long. 

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They don't even understand what 
words mean anymore. 

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We're streeting is not 
charismatic. 

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Kiss Starmer is not charismatic.
Nobody in the country is 

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thinking, Oh, I can't wait till 
that absolute charm. 

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Where's his impost? 
So we're, we're we're having 

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this, we're conducting this as 
though there will be a material 

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difference between those two 
leaders. 

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We're really all we're watching 
is the kind of implosion of a 

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senior, a kind of the most 
senior politicians in the 

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country not having a plan. 
Yes. 

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I mean not having a plan. 
I mean, is, is, is the constant 

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refrain, isn't it? 
And they keep trying to suggest 

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that they do. 
But I mean as as somebody, you 

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know, on the left, does this 
make you despair? 

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Do you think this is making 
Labour supporters despair? 

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Well, it's funny. 
It's funny to say that because 

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as somebody on the left, I 
despaired ages ago. 

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I mean, basically Keir Starmer 
made his bid to become leader as

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Corbyn in a suit. 
That's how he sold himself to 

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the left of the party. 
That's why the members voted for

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him, W Streeting explicitly said
in a Guardian interview four 

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years ago. 
Maybe a little less. 

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That's how you get round the 
party. 

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You faint to the left and then 
you go right to get the country.

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I know pollsters say that's the 
way to do it and this is just 

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the kind of political truism, 
but actually what it's doing is 

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completely corroding anybodies 
belief in the party as something

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that represents them if they 
have anything like a progressive

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platform. 
And I'm not talking about 

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radical left wing left winger 
here. 

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I'm not talking about communism.
I'm talking about something as 

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basic as defending refugee 
rights. 

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I'm talking about something as 
basic as not immediately meeting

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reform halfway, what with their 
own manoeuvrings, which they've 

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done in plain sight without even
the scantiest attempt to 

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disguise it is basically say the
Labour Party is no longer a home

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for people who have left wing 
views Now. 

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Now they can read the 
consequences any which way they 

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want. 
And I'm always here for 

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conversations about, you know, 
why Kia didn't make more friends

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in the parliamentary party. 
If he was going to start 

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expelling left wing MPs, why 
didn't he make more friends with

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the centrist MPs? 
How come W Treating has got such

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a March on him? 
Why, why couldn't he broker some

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kind of compromise with Angela? 
You know, I could, we could do 

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that conversation forever. 
But the truth, the truth is if 

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the if, if Labour kind of 
occupies that space of the left 

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while cleaving to no left wing 
principles, they're leaving. 

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They're opening up a vacuum that
John Mcternan might, might laugh

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at the Green Party all he wants,
but somebody will fill the 

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vacuum. 
Right, well, we'll, we'll come 

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back to whether John's laughing 
at the Greens, but let's go to 

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Scarlet and break this down a 
little bit. 

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I mean, first of all, how much 
trouble is Starmer in and is it 

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possible to say whether it's a 
recoverable position? 

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Yeah, well, so I actually just 
want to pick up on something Zoe

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just said about sort of 
pollsters saying it's the right 

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thing to do to, you know, feign 
one way for the membership and 

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then govern and completely 
another. 

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I mean, I'm, I disagree with any
poster to say that. 

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And I think actually a lot of 
Starmer's problems and the 

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reason why I believe his brand 
is irrecoverable is because the 

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public have completely made-up 
their mind on Keir Starmer. 

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And the number one problem they 
have with him is a sense that he

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is untrustworthy, that he goes 
back on what he says and that he

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breaks his promises. 
And actually an awful lot of 

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that stems from when he was in 
lead of the opposition and when 

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he did break a lot of those 
pledges that he stood to be 

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leader of the Labour Party on. 
And that's been his chronic 

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problem with his brand ever 
since. 

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It's why, for example, I think 
breaking manifesto promises 

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around the budget is going to be
a politically bad thing for Keir

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Starmer specifically. 
Even if he says it is Rachel 

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Reeves decision, I think it will
still reflect very badly on on 

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Keir Starmer. 
But what we see and one of the 

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reasons why again I say his 
brand is irrecoverable, is he is

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now by far the least popular 
Prime Minister we've had. 

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I mean, Liz Truss didn't make it
this far. 

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And so it's all going to put a 
slight caveat out there. 

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Although it was comparable 
numbers actually, but worse than

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Rishi Sunak, worse than Boris 
Johnson. 

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And he's only 18 months in after
this massive majority. 

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And I think the thing that would
really worry me if I was in the 

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Labour Party about Keir Starmer 
is that he has no flaw. 

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So at the moment he is, unless, 
sorry, even Jeremy Corbyn is 

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less unpopular than Keir 
Starmer. 

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And that's because Jeremy 
Corbyn, even if you might think 

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that his views are unpalatable 
to the public as a whole, 

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although, you know, we we should
remember that he got 40% of the 

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vote in 2017 under very 
different circumstances. 

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And in fact basically got the 
same amount of votes that Keir 

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Starmer did in 2024 when he led 
Labour to that crashing defeat 

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in 2019. 
But he remains more popular now 

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than Keir Starmer is. 
And that's because there are 

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parts of the public that like 
what Jeremy Corbyn says, that 

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believe he is authentic to what 
he says and will stick with him 

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no matter what. 
Boris Johnson had a similar 

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thing. 
Many unpopular politicians have 

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people that will not desert them
because they believe them to be 

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authentic, at least to some 
things and some principles. 

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And that is what Keir Starmer is
completely lacking. 

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And is there any evidence to 
suggest that anyone else W 

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Streeting or Shabana Mahmud or 
anyone plus in the Labour Party 

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would make any difference? 
There is no evidence actually. 

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So I mean it is all Labour 
figures are pretty unpopular 

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with the public. 
The only one that is in net 

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popularity is Andy Burnham. 
I would suggest that's because 

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he's not involved in Westminster
politics and I think it's hard 

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to maintain positive approval 
ratings at the moment. 

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As soon as you come into contact
with Southwest one. 

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The public just really, really 
do not like politicians. 

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However, I mean, the only Labour
politician that's really more 

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unpopular than Keir Starmer with
the public is Rachel Reeves. 

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So you could say at least 
there's room potentially for 

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someone else to do better. 
But there is no prints across 

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the water. 
When I do focus groups, there's 

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no one saying, oh, it would be 
fine if only so you used to 

226
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hear, you know, be fine if only 
Dave, you know, David Miliband 

227
00:11:47,000 --> 00:11:49,720
had won the leadership contest 
or, you know, even up until 

228
00:11:49,720 --> 00:11:51,640
reasonably recently, people 
saying they should bring back 

229
00:11:51,640 --> 00:11:53,240
Tony Blair. 
Or if, you know, doing 

230
00:11:53,240 --> 00:11:55,080
conservatives, they say get back
Boris Johnson. 

231
00:11:55,080 --> 00:11:56,640
There is no one that people are 
focusing. 

232
00:11:56,640 --> 00:11:58,920
It's not W treating. 
It's not any of the others. 

233
00:11:59,280 --> 00:12:00,880
If you look at the members you 
get a slightly different 

234
00:12:00,880 --> 00:12:02,560
picture. 
Ed Miliband is comfortably the 

235
00:12:02,560 --> 00:12:06,160
most popular figure with Labour 
members, should that come down 

236
00:12:06,160 --> 00:12:08,640
to that, and Angela Rayner also 
remains very popular. 

237
00:12:08,640 --> 00:12:11,440
But there is no obvious 
contender that could turn things

238
00:12:11,440 --> 00:12:13,520
round. 
But someone might do a better 

239
00:12:13,520 --> 00:12:15,600
job. 
John I mean, it's hard not to 

240
00:12:15,600 --> 00:12:18,840
conclude that the Labour Party 
is completely stuffed. 

241
00:12:21,000 --> 00:12:24,200
It's, it's hard not to conclude 
that the Labour Party needs 

242
00:12:24,200 --> 00:12:27,560
change. 
And the the reason for that is 

243
00:12:27,560 --> 00:12:30,200
when the Labour Party campaigned
for change in the last election,

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00:12:30,200 --> 00:12:34,520
you got a huge vote, a 
landslide, but it failed to say 

245
00:12:34,520 --> 00:12:37,600
clearly and it's failed to act 
in government clearly to say 

246
00:12:37,920 --> 00:12:42,240
change from what change to what.
And that's where I think the 

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00:12:42,240 --> 00:12:45,840
possibility of a candidate who 
comes from outside Westminster. 

248
00:12:45,920 --> 00:12:49,520
I said SW one as Scarlett was 
talking about who does have a 

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00:12:49,520 --> 00:12:51,840
view of how to change, has 
experience of changing. 

250
00:12:52,040 --> 00:12:55,160
Someone like Andy's got 10 years
of record that he can be judged 

251
00:12:55,160 --> 00:12:57,320
against, does have an 
opportunity. 

252
00:12:57,320 --> 00:13:01,280
And I've been in pubs across the
country with Andy Burnham and 

253
00:13:01,600 --> 00:13:04,480
always there's working class 
people who want selfies with 

254
00:13:04,480 --> 00:13:07,360
them. 
That is a huge step up from any 

255
00:13:07,360 --> 00:13:10,920
current Labour cabinet minister.
And I think the issue is there's

256
00:13:10,920 --> 00:13:13,480
a debate about purpose, a debate
about change, a debate about 

257
00:13:13,480 --> 00:13:16,080
what the meaning of change is. 
There's a country and, and, and,

258
00:13:16,080 --> 00:13:17,360
and it's right. 
There's always right. 

259
00:13:17,520 --> 00:13:20,760
There's a country out there 
listening to Zack Polanski, 

260
00:13:20,760 --> 00:13:23,880
listening to joining your party,
the Corbyn vehicle. 

261
00:13:24,760 --> 00:13:27,240
There's a country that wants 
change and it wants change from 

262
00:13:27,240 --> 00:13:30,840
a leftist centre perspective. 
Labour, and this is what I was 

263
00:13:30,840 --> 00:13:34,600
most outraged at, a briefing 
that says that the Labour Party 

264
00:13:34,600 --> 00:13:38,280
should put up and shut up and 
just do what the bond markets 

265
00:13:38,280 --> 00:13:41,440
want. 
Social Democratic parties manage

266
00:13:41,440 --> 00:13:44,000
markets they don't obey. 
Them right, But I mean, you 

267
00:13:44,000 --> 00:13:47,840
know, so if you think Andy 
Burnham is the best bets or the 

268
00:13:47,840 --> 00:13:50,560
one with the best chance, yeah, 
the question is when isn't it? 

269
00:13:50,560 --> 00:13:53,560
Because, you know, the the sort 
of the prevailing wisdom is, 

270
00:13:53,560 --> 00:13:56,000
well, let's see what happens 
after the budget. 

271
00:13:56,000 --> 00:13:58,800
Let's go into the May elections 
next year and if it's all the 

272
00:13:58,800 --> 00:14:01,160
disaster then we'll change 
leader. 

273
00:14:01,280 --> 00:14:03,480
You haven't got that kind of 
time, have you? 

274
00:14:03,520 --> 00:14:06,760
I mean, no, the the British 
public will have gone by the 

275
00:14:06,760 --> 00:14:10,000
time you get to to May. 
So, and I think I suspect Zoe 

276
00:14:10,000 --> 00:14:13,400
and Scarlett agree with the risk
of changing leader, which is the

277
00:14:13,400 --> 00:14:17,200
Tories made a genre of changing 
leader and did no good for them.

278
00:14:17,600 --> 00:14:20,800
But I think what number 10 have 
done is rather than being a 

279
00:14:20,800 --> 00:14:24,240
question of if it's not become a
question of when. 

280
00:14:24,480 --> 00:14:27,280
And once you start to go well, 
when is it best to wait till 

281
00:14:27,280 --> 00:14:29,760
May? 
Well that's two years into your 

282
00:14:29,760 --> 00:14:32,280
parliamentary term. 
You've only got 2 years left. 

283
00:14:32,520 --> 00:14:34,600
It'd be crazy to try and take 
over then. 

284
00:14:34,800 --> 00:14:37,320
So you then you go, OK, before 
that, would you want to take on 

285
00:14:37,320 --> 00:14:39,360
the defeats? 
Maybe you shouldn't say that's 

286
00:14:39,360 --> 00:14:41,080
my inheritance. 
I now build on that. 

287
00:14:41,240 --> 00:14:44,760
And then you go to the budget, 
the budget knocking around and 

288
00:14:44,760 --> 00:14:48,360
it's in, it's in Scarlet's 
polling knocking around is the 

289
00:14:48,360 --> 00:14:51,320
worry that and I think backbench
Labour MPs must be worried about

290
00:14:51,320 --> 00:14:54,600
this. 
What what happens if the Green 

291
00:14:54,600 --> 00:14:58,360
vote overtakes Labour's? 
What if there's a more popular 

292
00:14:58,360 --> 00:15:00,720
party on the left? 
Hard for them to get enough 

293
00:15:00,720 --> 00:15:02,480
parliament seats to mean 
anything. 

294
00:15:02,760 --> 00:15:04,400
But what if there's I'll 
surpass. 

295
00:15:04,400 --> 00:15:07,040
So what's their moment? 
It hurt the Tories massively 

296
00:15:07,040 --> 00:15:09,280
when reform went over. 
I think it won't. 

297
00:15:09,280 --> 00:15:11,080
So I think. 
So, so you think, go now, do 

298
00:15:11,080 --> 00:15:14,280
you? 
I, I think, I think the, the 

299
00:15:14,280 --> 00:15:18,800
fire that the starter pistol was
fired last night, the breed that

300
00:15:19,200 --> 00:15:22,400
number 10 declared a leadership 
election and basically said 

301
00:15:22,400 --> 00:15:25,120
you're all too scared, You're 
all too scared to do it. 

302
00:15:25,120 --> 00:15:27,480
And The thing is, well, if 
somebody's saying there should 

303
00:15:27,480 --> 00:15:31,040
be an election, maybe take them 
at their words. 

304
00:15:31,040 --> 00:15:33,080
They're going, you know, coming 
up and go, if you're hard 

305
00:15:33,080 --> 00:15:37,320
enough, well, there are quite a 
few people who are hard enough 

306
00:15:37,480 --> 00:15:39,520
out there. 
They've got the ambition, 

307
00:15:39,520 --> 00:15:42,480
they've got the desire and the 
and you're being kicked around 

308
00:15:42,480 --> 00:15:45,840
and, and you've got the 
Parliamentary Labour Party being

309
00:15:45,840 --> 00:15:48,200
described as feral. 
That is disrespectful at the 

310
00:15:48,200 --> 00:15:49,600
very least. 
And we've got cabinet to be 

311
00:15:49,600 --> 00:15:51,600
briefed against. 
It's got something's got to 

312
00:15:51,600 --> 00:15:53,400
give. 
And I think and the calculation 

313
00:15:53,400 --> 00:15:56,760
of #10 is the party will give 
for what if the party doesn't 

314
00:15:56,760 --> 00:15:58,200
and what if the party shouldn't 
I? 

315
00:15:58,440 --> 00:16:01,440
Mean, Zoe, I mean the, the 
number 10 argument and Rachel 

316
00:16:01,440 --> 00:16:05,320
Reeves's argument in the last 
week has been if I resigned, 

317
00:16:05,320 --> 00:16:07,800
what would happen the next day? 
You know, the, the cost of 

318
00:16:07,800 --> 00:16:10,360
borrowing would go up, the 
markets would go mad. 

319
00:16:10,520 --> 00:16:15,760
The economy would be, would be 
flawed even more than it is now.

320
00:16:15,920 --> 00:16:18,520
Are you saying just forget about
that? 

321
00:16:19,120 --> 00:16:21,440
Don't worry about it. 
If there's no Prince over the 

322
00:16:21,440 --> 00:16:25,080
water, if Andy Burnham's the 
only politician in the country 

323
00:16:25,080 --> 00:16:28,840
with a net positive rating and 
it's at 9%, it's at 9 points, 

324
00:16:28,920 --> 00:16:32,280
which is not very high, but it's
higher than everybody else, then

325
00:16:32,280 --> 00:16:35,440
I'm then I think don't rush it 
because Andy doesn't even have a

326
00:16:35,440 --> 00:16:38,480
seat yet, right? 
So we have anybody who thinks 

327
00:16:38,480 --> 00:16:43,040
that he is the the white knight 
is going to have to wait until 

328
00:16:43,040 --> 00:16:45,480
he has a until an MP is seated 
for him. 

329
00:16:47,280 --> 00:16:51,680
But it I this idea. 
Should we worry about the bond 

330
00:16:51,680 --> 00:16:55,240
market? 
Well, yeah, I mean, John's right

331
00:16:55,280 --> 00:16:59,600
that, you know, as a competent 
government knows what to do, 

332
00:16:59,600 --> 00:17:03,840
doesn't just flail around at the
mercy of the bond markets. 

333
00:17:04,040 --> 00:17:07,000
But at the same time, if you 
look like you're in chaos, if 

334
00:17:07,000 --> 00:17:10,520
you look like you can't get your
budget voted through, if, if 

335
00:17:10,520 --> 00:17:13,400
nobody looking at your senior 
team knows who they're even 

336
00:17:13,400 --> 00:17:17,119
briefing on behalf of. 
If no if, if the Prime Minister 

337
00:17:17,319 --> 00:17:21,599
doesn't look like he's in 
charge, then you can wish you 

338
00:17:21,599 --> 00:17:24,319
were in charge of the bond. 
You were the master of the bond 

339
00:17:24,319 --> 00:17:26,800
markets, but you won't be. 
Scarlett isn't isn't the trouble

340
00:17:26,800 --> 00:17:30,520
that, you know, Keir Starmer had
a positive racing Once Upon a 

341
00:17:30,520 --> 00:17:36,480
time, so who's to say A that he 
can't recover it and B that Andy

342
00:17:36,480 --> 00:17:39,360
Burnham wouldn't lose his 
positive rating as soon as he's 

343
00:17:39,360 --> 00:17:43,160
actually in power and unable to 
transform things overnight? 

344
00:17:44,080 --> 00:17:47,760
Yeah, I mean to take a before BI
think, can you recover it? 

345
00:17:47,760 --> 00:17:49,760
We've never seen a Prime 
Minister recover from these 

346
00:17:49,760 --> 00:17:52,280
sorts of ratings. 
Boris Johnson got slight bounces

347
00:17:52,280 --> 00:17:55,880
again, having not sunk this low 
by the way, from things like the

348
00:17:56,320 --> 00:17:58,200
vaccine roll out and also but 
isn't. 

349
00:17:58,200 --> 00:18:00,040
History no help now. 
I mean, you know, we're in 

350
00:18:00,040 --> 00:18:02,960
uncharted waters, so the fact 
that it hasn't happened before 

351
00:18:02,960 --> 00:18:06,080
doesn't really help us, does it?
Well, I think it, I think on 

352
00:18:06,080 --> 00:18:08,680
this one it does because I think
it's much harder to recover 

353
00:18:08,680 --> 00:18:10,800
positive ratings than it is to 
lose them. 

354
00:18:11,000 --> 00:18:13,480
And what we're seeing is just 
how difficult it is to fight up 

355
00:18:13,480 --> 00:18:14,880
water. 
Now what again, what I think 

356
00:18:14,880 --> 00:18:17,280
those examples tell us to fight 
upstreamers. 

357
00:18:17,280 --> 00:18:19,680
And remember, this is when 
politicians were still slightly 

358
00:18:19,680 --> 00:18:21,560
more trusted than they are now 
because that has been a 

359
00:18:21,560 --> 00:18:24,680
consistent downward trend. 
But if you look at someone like 

360
00:18:24,680 --> 00:18:26,600
Boris Johnson, who's the only 
one who's managed to have that 

361
00:18:26,600 --> 00:18:29,880
balance in recent years, and 
that was a global pandemic and 

362
00:18:29,880 --> 00:18:31,920
an outbreak of a war on the 
European continent. 

363
00:18:31,920 --> 00:18:35,280
Now, maybe if one of those two 
things or something was to 

364
00:18:35,280 --> 00:18:37,840
repeat itself, Keir Starmer 
could claw something back. 

365
00:18:38,000 --> 00:18:40,640
But are the Labour Party really 
going to sit around hoping for, 

366
00:18:40,840 --> 00:18:43,400
you know, a sort of catastrophe 
on either one of those scales to

367
00:18:43,400 --> 00:18:44,920
happen again? 
I'm not so sure. 

368
00:18:44,920 --> 00:18:48,600
And even still, is Keir Starmer 
at least, you know, no matter 

369
00:18:48,600 --> 00:18:50,960
what you think about Boris 
Johnson, you can think plenty of

370
00:18:50,960 --> 00:18:53,280
things. 
I mean, but he was a good 

371
00:18:53,280 --> 00:18:56,720
campaigner and he was better at 
connecting with the public than 

372
00:18:56,720 --> 00:18:58,200
Keir Starmer, I think has ever 
been. 

373
00:18:58,200 --> 00:19:00,360
And those, those positive 
ratings for Keir Starmer were 

374
00:19:00,360 --> 00:19:02,840
very interesting. 
The public like a winner, the 

375
00:19:02,840 --> 00:19:05,800
public, but when someone looks 
like they're about to win an 

376
00:19:05,800 --> 00:19:08,200
election, start giving them more
of the benefit of the doubt 

377
00:19:08,400 --> 00:19:10,760
because they are actually in 
some ways relatively optimistic 

378
00:19:10,760 --> 00:19:11,920
about that change That can 
happen. 

379
00:19:12,040 --> 00:19:14,400
We've even seen that happen with
Nigel Farage's ratings. 

380
00:19:14,400 --> 00:19:16,240
But isn't Andy Burnham a serial 
loser? 

381
00:19:16,240 --> 00:19:18,480
I mean, what? 
How can he be suddenly when it 

382
00:19:18,480 --> 00:19:21,320
comes to national politics? 
Well again, This is why I'm 

383
00:19:21,320 --> 00:19:23,800
sceptical that any positive 
ratings from Andy Burnham and to

384
00:19:23,800 --> 00:19:27,440
take your point BI am sceptical 
that they could maintain contact

385
00:19:27,480 --> 00:19:30,160
with an electorate like this 
positive ratings. 

386
00:19:30,360 --> 00:19:32,920
Now what? 
What could be different about 

387
00:19:32,920 --> 00:19:35,080
someone like Andy Burnham, And 
again, I don't know, because 

388
00:19:35,960 --> 00:19:38,240
what we're seeing is all 
politicians struggling with this

389
00:19:38,400 --> 00:19:41,080
is that I think someone like 
Andy Burnham, or at least 

390
00:19:41,080 --> 00:19:43,400
someone that came across as 
authentic and principled, will 

391
00:19:43,400 --> 00:19:45,880
probably still have a higher 
floor, even if that meant they 

392
00:19:45,880 --> 00:19:47,520
ended up in deep underwater 
territory. 

393
00:19:47,520 --> 00:19:49,920
Because at the moment we're 
ceding that basically all 

394
00:19:49,920 --> 00:19:52,440
politicians that become well 
known become deeply unpopular. 

395
00:19:53,280 --> 00:19:56,840
They might have a high, you 
know, a lower place to fall 

396
00:19:57,280 --> 00:20:00,840
because they could have a safety
net of voters that liked them no

397
00:20:00,840 --> 00:20:02,760
matter what. 
And that is precisely what Keir 

398
00:20:02,760 --> 00:20:05,160
Starmer is lacking. 
I mean, I'm, I'm sort of 

399
00:20:05,160 --> 00:20:07,320
surprised that there is so much 
agreement between the three of 

400
00:20:07,320 --> 00:20:09,280
you, to be honest. 
But I mean, John, I mean, isn't,

401
00:20:09,680 --> 00:20:12,560
isn't the problem that if 
you're, if you argue, well, Andy

402
00:20:12,560 --> 00:20:15,480
Burnham is the one who's sort of
vaguely net positive, so. 

403
00:20:15,480 --> 00:20:17,960
Let's go in that direction, 
Brandon would be. 

404
00:20:19,440 --> 00:20:21,600
Well, you know what I mean. 
In terms of John's argument of 

405
00:20:21,600 --> 00:20:24,640
sort of, well, he, he's, he's 
the only one who isn't looking 

406
00:20:24,640 --> 00:20:29,280
like a loser politically. 
He takes Labour to the soft 

407
00:20:29,280 --> 00:20:31,240
left. 
That is not where the country 

408
00:20:31,240 --> 00:20:33,480
was at the election. 
So. 

409
00:20:33,800 --> 00:20:36,000
You know, so, So what? 
What is the implication of 

410
00:20:36,040 --> 00:20:39,320
moving the government to the 
left in terms of Labour's 

411
00:20:39,320 --> 00:20:41,640
ability to survive? 
That look, that's that, that's a

412
00:20:41,640 --> 00:20:44,240
really good way of putting it 
and a good way of thinking about

413
00:20:44,240 --> 00:20:47,280
it. 
Andy Burnham did lose 2 

414
00:20:47,280 --> 00:20:51,280
leadership elections. 
Andy Burnham won every single 

415
00:20:51,280 --> 00:20:54,160
constituency in Greater 
Manchester last time he stood to

416
00:20:54,160 --> 00:20:56,560
be the mayor. 
That's a huge achievement given 

417
00:20:56,560 --> 00:20:59,360
the the the diversity of voters 
who who are in Greater 

418
00:20:59,360 --> 00:21:01,720
Manchester. 
And what is the answer to the 

419
00:21:01,720 --> 00:21:05,720
question, is he soft left? 
Yes he is, but so are the most 

420
00:21:05,720 --> 00:21:09,240
popular policies of the Labour 
government at the moment. 

421
00:21:09,240 --> 00:21:12,400
The the minimum wage is 2/3 of 
average earnings. 

422
00:21:12,800 --> 00:21:16,200
Railway nationalization, like 
Great British Energy being set 

423
00:21:16,200 --> 00:21:18,760
up, Great British nuclear 
workers rights, renter's rights,

424
00:21:19,120 --> 00:21:21,240
all the most popular things the 
government's doing, which the 

425
00:21:21,240 --> 00:21:23,120
government won't talk about a 
soft left. 

426
00:21:23,200 --> 00:21:25,800
And then look, look at where 
Nigel Farage is. 

427
00:21:25,960 --> 00:21:29,520
Nigel Farage wants to lift the 
two child benefit gap which 

428
00:21:29,720 --> 00:21:32,200
Rachel's been against, which 
Kier's been against, which 

429
00:21:32,200 --> 00:21:34,720
Andy's been in favour of 
lifting. 

430
00:21:34,880 --> 00:21:36,760
Nigel Farage wants to 
nationalize British Steel. 

431
00:21:36,960 --> 00:21:40,720
Nigel Farage is cosplaying a 
soft left Social Democratic 

432
00:21:40,720 --> 00:21:43,440
Party. 
People obsess about reform being

433
00:21:43,640 --> 00:21:46,880
he's listening to where working 
people are, where the red wall 

434
00:21:46,880 --> 00:21:50,080
is and actually a Labour 
government which was more open 

435
00:21:50,080 --> 00:21:51,560
about, yeah, we're, we are soft 
left. 

436
00:21:51,560 --> 00:21:53,960
To be honest, we are doing these
things which are soft left. 

437
00:21:54,160 --> 00:21:56,040
They're popular. 
Not only they're popular, 

438
00:21:56,040 --> 00:21:57,960
they're right. 
And somebody who had more 

439
00:21:57,960 --> 00:22:01,120
swagger about them, more 
confidence in it would actually,

440
00:22:02,200 --> 00:22:04,760
I think the compelling thing is 
you put somebody who believes in

441
00:22:04,760 --> 00:22:07,520
being soft left in a country 
that actually quite likes being 

442
00:22:07,520 --> 00:22:10,160
soft left economically. 
You know how many people in 

443
00:22:10,160 --> 00:22:12,560
Britain, I've been to loads of 
meetings, public and private and

444
00:22:12,560 --> 00:22:15,400
business. 
My view is the Labour government

445
00:22:15,400 --> 00:22:17,960
should nationalize Thames Water 
because they're a disgrace. 

446
00:22:18,320 --> 00:22:21,040
This government won't do that 
because I think nationalization 

447
00:22:21,040 --> 00:22:23,880
is lefty. 
It's popular and it's popular 

448
00:22:24,120 --> 00:22:25,800
and I think it's this new 
politics. 

449
00:22:26,160 --> 00:22:30,720
People believe in politicians 
with values and with records and

450
00:22:30,720 --> 00:22:33,240
the record. 
This government is mixed, but 

451
00:22:33,240 --> 00:22:35,480
it's embarrassed about the good 
things it's done. 

452
00:22:35,880 --> 00:22:38,360
Andy Burnham and other people in
the soft left, Angela Rain, 

453
00:22:38,960 --> 00:22:40,760
those candidates would not be 
embarrassed. 

454
00:22:40,760 --> 00:22:44,520
And the final thing is Andy, 
like Anna Sarwar, like Sadiq 

455
00:22:44,520 --> 00:22:49,280
Khan was really quick to say 
ceasefire in Gaza. 

456
00:22:49,280 --> 00:22:52,400
And I think that's got massive 
residence in a country where 8 

457
00:22:52,400 --> 00:22:54,720
out of 10 people want to 
ceasefire for such a long time. 

458
00:22:55,120 --> 00:22:58,840
And the Labour government's was 
seen to be against that for 

459
00:22:58,840 --> 00:23:01,960
whatever it was doing and saying
Labour's identified as being 

460
00:23:01,960 --> 00:23:03,440
against. 
So I think those there are big 

461
00:23:03,440 --> 00:23:07,320
issues out there which can be 
shaped, but you need a a new 

462
00:23:07,320 --> 00:23:10,360
politics and a new way of doing 
a new economics. 

463
00:23:11,760 --> 00:23:14,880
I want to identify the problem 
both of each of you are making, 

464
00:23:14,880 --> 00:23:16,240
John. 
You're making the problem that 

465
00:23:16,240 --> 00:23:19,640
people respond to shopping list 
policies and they and they and 

466
00:23:19,640 --> 00:23:22,160
they therefore look at reform 
and go, oh, reform is a bit like

467
00:23:22,160 --> 00:23:24,600
Andy Burnham. 
How come I support Nigel Farage 

468
00:23:24,960 --> 00:23:27,800
when I don't support this or if 
I support Nigel Farage in 

469
00:23:27,800 --> 00:23:30,040
nationalising this, then I would
support Andy Burnham. 

470
00:23:30,360 --> 00:23:33,120
People don't vote on shopping 
list policies, they vote on 

471
00:23:33,120 --> 00:23:35,640
their vibes. 
And Nigel Farage is giving off 

472
00:23:35,720 --> 00:23:38,880
hard right racist vibes. 
And Andy Burnham is giving off 

473
00:23:38,880 --> 00:23:43,480
the guy who has been actually 
kind of radicalised by the blood

474
00:23:43,480 --> 00:23:45,840
scandal. 
Obviously Nigel Farage would 

475
00:23:45,840 --> 00:23:49,920
deny being racist or or even 
hard right and he's not here to 

476
00:23:49,920 --> 00:23:52,880
defend himself, so we've got to 
be careful about labels we throw

477
00:23:52,880 --> 00:23:55,680
around. 
Fine, fine. 

478
00:23:56,160 --> 00:23:58,640
And Christian, you're acting as 
though there's these fixed 

479
00:23:58,640 --> 00:24:01,800
points of of soft left. 
What's soft left? 

480
00:24:02,080 --> 00:24:04,840
What's hard left? 
What's centrist? 

481
00:24:04,840 --> 00:24:07,200
What's right wing? 
I just mean to the left of where

482
00:24:07,200 --> 00:24:10,320
the government was. 
I know, but did like, you know, 

483
00:24:10,320 --> 00:24:12,560
did the the actual Labour 
government we're looking at 

484
00:24:12,560 --> 00:24:16,680
doesn't look like even a 
centrist left, a centre left 

485
00:24:16,680 --> 00:24:20,360
that I would recognise 10, let 
alone 20 years ago. 

486
00:24:21,080 --> 00:24:24,400
The Tory party does not look 
anything like a centre right. 

487
00:24:24,720 --> 00:24:26,960
Nigel Farage you say? 
He would be really upset at 

488
00:24:26,960 --> 00:24:30,640
being called a racist. 
Reform has deportation policies 

489
00:24:30,840 --> 00:24:34,040
that you would have found on the
Flyers of the British National 

490
00:24:34,040 --> 00:24:38,480
Party, the BNP. 
So we're not talking about an 

491
00:24:38,800 --> 00:24:42,240
we're not when we use these 
terms like soft left, hard left,

492
00:24:42,520 --> 00:24:46,360
when we, we just got to be a 
little bit more forensic. 

493
00:24:46,360 --> 00:24:49,200
I think about what we're talking
about because we're we're really

494
00:24:49,200 --> 00:24:52,320
moving our discussion to the 
right all. 

495
00:24:52,320 --> 00:24:54,760
The time, but isn't the point 
that you're both making that 

496
00:24:54,760 --> 00:24:58,600
that actually on on on on 
economics and on workers rights 

497
00:24:58,600 --> 00:25:00,880
and all the rest of it, Britain 
and welfare. 

498
00:25:01,080 --> 00:25:06,760
Britain might be movable to the 
left, but on immigration you're 

499
00:25:06,760 --> 00:25:09,200
all moving to the right. 
Well, I just think what John was

500
00:25:09,200 --> 00:25:13,480
saying is absolutely right. 
However, I did find that you 

501
00:25:13,960 --> 00:25:16,960
it's easy when talking about 
these things to talk about soft 

502
00:25:16,960 --> 00:25:18,520
left policies that appeal to 
people. 

503
00:25:18,680 --> 00:25:21,800
Please speak country is quite 
economically left wing and 

504
00:25:21,800 --> 00:25:22,840
that's been the case for a 
while. 

505
00:25:22,840 --> 00:25:25,520
And there is certainly mass 
appeal to things like 

506
00:25:25,520 --> 00:25:30,000
nationalising utilities and, 
and, and, and although actually 

507
00:25:30,080 --> 00:25:33,200
the pen, the benefit gap doesn't
poll the removing it doesn't 

508
00:25:33,200 --> 00:25:36,360
pull that well. 
But it is difficult to emit the 

509
00:25:36,360 --> 00:25:38,840
issue of immigration. 
It is now the number one or 

510
00:25:38,840 --> 00:25:42,840
sometimes #2 but it's a dominant
concern for voters, including a 

511
00:25:42,840 --> 00:25:46,720
sizeable chunk of Labour voters.
And actually, even if, you know,

512
00:25:46,920 --> 00:25:49,320
Zoe mentioned obviously 
deportation policies, now it 

513
00:25:49,320 --> 00:25:51,200
could be, you know, it's 
potentially a bit squeamish to 

514
00:25:51,200 --> 00:25:55,000
talk about, but even a majority 
of Labour voters back deporting 

515
00:25:55,000 --> 00:25:56,880
people who are in the country 
illegally. 

516
00:25:56,880 --> 00:26:00,240
Now, none of this is to say that
there isn't a leader that could 

517
00:26:00,240 --> 00:26:02,880
be able to try and thread that 
needle, but it is there to be 

518
00:26:02,880 --> 00:26:04,880
threaded. 
And I think part of the problem 

519
00:26:04,880 --> 00:26:07,080
is even there was a poll out 
yesterday actually showed even a

520
00:26:07,080 --> 00:26:11,120
plurality of Green voters back 
deporting migrants that are here

521
00:26:11,120 --> 00:26:14,080
illegally. 
And so I think the issue is 

522
00:26:14,080 --> 00:26:16,600
going to be that I think you can
have a leader that is going to 

523
00:26:16,600 --> 00:26:19,480
appeal to soft left and can be, 
you know, I think speak much 

524
00:26:19,480 --> 00:26:23,400
more authentically and indeed 
patriotically about standing up 

525
00:26:23,640 --> 00:26:26,200
to forces they disagree with 
like things like reform. 

526
00:26:26,360 --> 00:26:29,920
However, I think you actually 
it's going to be very difficult 

527
00:26:29,920 --> 00:26:33,080
to get the public into a place 
where they are not still 

528
00:26:33,280 --> 00:26:37,200
demanding reductions in illegal 
and legal migration and I think 

529
00:26:37,200 --> 00:26:39,680
that is a difficult issue for 
the next Labour leader, whoever.

530
00:26:39,680 --> 00:26:42,000
They are, John. 
I mean, you know, lots of people

531
00:26:42,000 --> 00:26:44,360
in the Labour Party think it 
needs to be much tougher on 

532
00:26:44,360 --> 00:26:46,160
immigration. 
It's likely to get much tougher 

533
00:26:46,160 --> 00:26:52,120
on asylum seekers on Monday. 
You know, is it ever going to be

534
00:26:52,160 --> 00:26:55,640
authentically believed by the 
electorates that a Labour 

535
00:26:55,640 --> 00:27:01,320
government can be, you know, 
economically progressive and and

536
00:27:01,320 --> 00:27:05,720
truly tough on immigration? 
So look the the issue for a 

537
00:27:05,720 --> 00:27:09,640
Labour government on the economy
and on migration and on law and 

538
00:27:09,640 --> 00:27:13,960
order is to be considered 
competent, to be considered in 

539
00:27:13,960 --> 00:27:17,520
control. 
You will not vote Labour if you 

540
00:27:17,520 --> 00:27:21,000
want the harshest of 
restrictions on immigration. 

541
00:27:21,080 --> 00:27:23,120
You won't vote Labour if you 
want the harsh conditions of 

542
00:27:23,120 --> 00:27:26,360
prisons, the longest sentences. 
But Labour has to acknowledge 

543
00:27:26,480 --> 00:27:28,920
the country wants security, 
border security, it wants 

544
00:27:28,920 --> 00:27:32,240
security on the streets. 
And Labour got to realise the 

545
00:27:32,240 --> 00:27:33,880
public are always sceptical 
about it. 

546
00:27:34,280 --> 00:27:37,760
The thing that we are is in the 
politics of flux, a politics in 

547
00:27:37,760 --> 00:27:40,040
which there are local and global
changes. 

548
00:27:40,040 --> 00:27:43,600
There is migration, there's also
climate crisis, there is 

549
00:27:43,840 --> 00:27:49,000
inflation, cost of living, but 
there's also AI, there's China, 

550
00:27:49,240 --> 00:27:51,760
there's a war in Europe, there's
Trump's tariffs. 

551
00:27:52,200 --> 00:27:54,960
There are so many big issues. 
And it it leaves a space for the

552
00:27:54,960 --> 00:27:57,520
political entrepreneurs. 
And where I think that what 

553
00:27:57,800 --> 00:28:01,720
Farage has done is to be able to
move in to secure a block of 30%

554
00:28:01,720 --> 00:28:05,960
of the vote that wouldn't be a 
dominant block in any other 

555
00:28:05,960 --> 00:28:06,960
time. 
In politics. 

556
00:28:07,400 --> 00:28:10,160
There's five viable political 
parties and Labour are one of 

557
00:28:10,160 --> 00:28:14,520
those other four parties, around
between fifteen, 2025%. 

558
00:28:14,760 --> 00:28:18,920
Labour's got to find a way to 
articulate a future vision, one 

559
00:28:18,920 --> 00:28:21,360
that Farage can't do. 
Labour's more authentic around 

560
00:28:21,360 --> 00:28:24,280
managing the markets around 
intervening, around being left 

561
00:28:24,280 --> 00:28:26,240
economically. 
Farage is currently more 

562
00:28:26,240 --> 00:28:29,040
authentic or trusted on. 
He'll get the job done. 

563
00:28:29,040 --> 00:28:31,360
He's hard headed. 
Labour is in government, it's 

564
00:28:31,360 --> 00:28:35,480
got to prove it's got the 
competence plus the humanity 

565
00:28:35,560 --> 00:28:37,760
because people also do want 
people. 

566
00:28:37,760 --> 00:28:40,560
People believe people who 
shouldn't be here. 

567
00:28:40,560 --> 00:28:43,560
You, you apply for asylum, you 
don't get asylum, you need to be

568
00:28:43,560 --> 00:28:46,400
removed as a working system. 
They do also believe this 

569
00:28:46,400 --> 00:28:48,920
country, this great country of 
ours does have a responsibility 

570
00:28:49,120 --> 00:28:50,800
to refugees. 
We have to share the burden, but

571
00:28:50,800 --> 00:28:52,560
we have to take some of the 
burden itself. 

572
00:28:52,720 --> 00:28:55,480
And it's finding the way to tell
that story of bringing the 

573
00:28:55,480 --> 00:28:59,120
elements together. 
And I think my, my, my biggest 

574
00:28:59,120 --> 00:29:01,640
question mark over the way the 
government's run itself for the 

575
00:29:01,640 --> 00:29:05,080
last 18 months is it's always 
about process, never about 

576
00:29:05,080 --> 00:29:07,760
purpose. 
It's always about individual 

577
00:29:07,760 --> 00:29:09,600
technical, technocratic 
solutions. 

578
00:29:09,680 --> 00:29:13,920
It's never about this is big a 
big problem requires a big idea.

579
00:29:13,920 --> 00:29:16,840
It requires a big effort. 
It requires us all coming 

580
00:29:16,840 --> 00:29:18,880
together. 
And I think it's you have to 

581
00:29:18,880 --> 00:29:21,760
change the shape, the nature of 
progressive politics. 

582
00:29:22,040 --> 00:29:25,960
And that is why whoever rises 
the challenge which has been 

583
00:29:25,960 --> 00:29:29,920
issued by #10 has got to have a 
new political economy, a new a 

584
00:29:30,200 --> 00:29:33,120
new way of doing politics, a new
way of running economy, a new 

585
00:29:33,120 --> 00:29:34,440
way of Britain being in the 
world. 

586
00:29:34,440 --> 00:29:37,320
Zoe, that's a big demand do. 
Do you think the left, whether 

587
00:29:37,320 --> 00:29:41,160
it's your party or the Greens, 
can actually win the argument on

588
00:29:41,160 --> 00:29:44,360
immigration? 
Well, OK, I totally do, and I'll

589
00:29:44,360 --> 00:29:47,240
tell you how we go about winning
the argument on immigration. 

590
00:29:47,440 --> 00:29:50,320
First of all, the reason polling
numbers are the way they are is 

591
00:29:50,320 --> 00:29:52,440
because it's all anybody talks 
about. 

592
00:29:52,720 --> 00:29:55,600
The media and the politicians 
are in some kind of dance of 

593
00:29:55,600 --> 00:29:57,960
death where they won't talk 
about anything except 

594
00:29:57,960 --> 00:30:00,960
immigration, and they try and 
kind of game each other to more 

595
00:30:00,960 --> 00:30:04,160
and more extreme positions. 
All three of you are talking as 

596
00:30:04,160 --> 00:30:07,240
though deportations are only 
suggested for people who are 

597
00:30:07,240 --> 00:30:09,800
here illegally. 
That's always been true, that 

598
00:30:09,800 --> 00:30:12,080
people who get refused asylum 
get deported. 

599
00:30:12,080 --> 00:30:13,520
Nobody's never disagreed with 
that. 

600
00:30:13,720 --> 00:30:16,720
But we're talking about, you 
know, reform has ideas about, 

601
00:30:16,720 --> 00:30:19,000
about leave, to remain, about 
not having. 

602
00:30:19,440 --> 00:30:21,880
People who are here. 
Legally, yeah, but yeah, if when

603
00:30:21,880 --> 00:30:25,120
you're here legally the Tories 
have ideas about not get about 

604
00:30:25,120 --> 00:30:27,320
being deported if you've ever 
claimed a benefit. 

605
00:30:27,600 --> 00:30:31,360
We're talking about an 
absolutely febrile environment 

606
00:30:31,360 --> 00:30:33,920
in which obviously then when 
people are asked what the 

607
00:30:33,920 --> 00:30:36,320
biggest issues are, they always 
say immigration because that's 

608
00:30:36,400 --> 00:30:39,320
all that the authority ever, 
ever discussed. 

609
00:30:39,520 --> 00:30:42,280
However, when you ask people 
what the most important thing to

610
00:30:42,280 --> 00:30:46,680
them is, is always cost of 
living, NHS, sometimes a little 

611
00:30:46,680 --> 00:30:50,640
bit of social care if they're in
the older brackets, sometimes a 

612
00:30:50,640 --> 00:30:53,600
little bit of crime, especially 
among women, it's not. 

613
00:30:53,800 --> 00:30:56,920
People aren't saying this issue 
is salient to them, they're 

614
00:30:56,920 --> 00:30:58,400
responding to the political 
climate. 

615
00:30:58,760 --> 00:31:02,440
Consequently, every time we say 
how is the left ever going to 

616
00:31:02,440 --> 00:31:05,360
have a viable policy around 
immigration when the public 

617
00:31:05,360 --> 00:31:08,360
public's attitudes are really, 
really hardening, you're just 

618
00:31:08,360 --> 00:31:12,200
this is a self fulfilling 
fallacy and it and and it's 

619
00:31:12,280 --> 00:31:17,720
really dispiriting to watch. 
Now, I don't know whether I 

620
00:31:17,720 --> 00:31:20,240
don't know what the greens 
ultimate landing point on 

621
00:31:20,240 --> 00:31:23,200
immigration is going to be. 
I don't know how much the late 

622
00:31:23,200 --> 00:31:25,480
Labour is going to surrender to 
the reform agenda. 

623
00:31:25,640 --> 00:31:27,920
Although I think to borrow 
Scarlett's Braves, they haven't 

624
00:31:27,920 --> 00:31:31,680
got a floor morally, they'll go 
anywhere chasing that kind of 

625
00:31:31,680 --> 00:31:36,200
energy. 
But I do know that it at some 

626
00:31:36,200 --> 00:31:38,680
point there will be there will 
cut there. 

627
00:31:38,680 --> 00:31:41,480
There is a hardcore of people in
Britain who say, look, the 

628
00:31:41,480 --> 00:31:46,800
numbers, migration, migrating, 
fleeing war are no higher than 

629
00:31:46,800 --> 00:31:48,160
they've ever been throughout 
history. 

630
00:31:48,160 --> 00:31:52,160
It's about 3%, right? 
So anything else we can manage. 

631
00:31:52,440 --> 00:31:56,720
And whether or not these, you 
know, Nigel Farage shows what 

632
00:31:56,720 --> 00:32:02,120
happens when you try and build a
project not by amalgamating 25 

633
00:32:02,120 --> 00:32:04,560
views, but by going hard for 
your core. 

634
00:32:04,680 --> 00:32:07,880
The person who goes hard for the
core that will not not talk 

635
00:32:07,880 --> 00:32:11,440
about people as burdens, that 
will not talk about people as 

636
00:32:11,440 --> 00:32:14,720
illegals, the people who go hard
for that core are going to win 

637
00:32:14,720 --> 00:32:17,040
something. 
Just finally, I mean, Scarlett, 

638
00:32:18,200 --> 00:32:20,720
if you, I mean you've made it 
clear you think it's, it's 

639
00:32:20,720 --> 00:32:23,560
irrecoverable for Keir Starmer. 
The question is, is it 

640
00:32:23,560 --> 00:32:28,280
recoverable at all for Labour, 
you know, before the next 

641
00:32:28,280 --> 00:32:31,800
election, if Labour, how you 
know what, what are the things 

642
00:32:31,800 --> 00:32:34,960
Labour needs to hit? 
You know, is it they, they kind 

643
00:32:34,960 --> 00:32:36,720
of assume it's the health 
service and immigration. 

644
00:32:36,760 --> 00:32:39,880
Are they right in that? 
Look, it's a very difficult and 

645
00:32:39,880 --> 00:32:43,880
narrow path for Labour, I think,
but I think it's a path that 

646
00:32:43,880 --> 00:32:46,720
still plausibly exists. 
What should they do? 

647
00:32:46,920 --> 00:32:50,080
I think John is right when he 
says they need to show 

648
00:32:50,640 --> 00:32:53,320
competence on issues whilst 
potentially not focusing on 

649
00:32:53,320 --> 00:32:55,760
them, right? 
So like with immigration, I do 

650
00:32:55,760 --> 00:32:58,920
think they're going to need to 
deliver the sorts of things that

651
00:33:00,280 --> 00:33:02,160
are looking for. 
I slightly disagree with Zoe. 

652
00:33:02,160 --> 00:33:04,120
I don't think it's just because 
people are talking about it. 

653
00:33:04,120 --> 00:33:07,120
Obviously giving things more 
media oxygen, we'll see an 

654
00:33:07,120 --> 00:33:08,520
impact on how much people think 
about it. 

655
00:33:08,520 --> 00:33:11,480
But actually, if you look about 
the concern for immigration, it 

656
00:33:11,480 --> 00:33:16,080
was when it started spiking when
immigrants were starting to be 

657
00:33:16,080 --> 00:33:19,600
put up in asylum hotels. 
And I did notice from focus 

658
00:33:19,600 --> 00:33:22,560
groups at the time that people 
who said previously they didn't 

659
00:33:22,560 --> 00:33:24,960
think much about that issue felt
very differently when they had a

660
00:33:24,960 --> 00:33:27,760
hotel in their area. 
So I also do think it is to a 

661
00:33:27,760 --> 00:33:30,560
certain extent what people are 
seeing or hearing in their local

662
00:33:30,560 --> 00:33:33,160
communities as well as what what
they might be ingesting on the 

663
00:33:33,160 --> 00:33:35,240
news. 
But putting that to a side, I 

664
00:33:35,240 --> 00:33:37,120
think Labour, I mean look what 
Labour should have done when 

665
00:33:37,120 --> 00:33:40,880
they got in last time in the 
2024 election was to SAT 

666
00:33:41,000 --> 00:33:44,400
straight away, no summer recess,
have Parliament working everyday

667
00:33:44,400 --> 00:33:47,720
to show they were delivering on 
the nation's priorities and go 

668
00:33:47,720 --> 00:33:50,680
hell for leather on the NHS 
because that is something that 

669
00:33:50,680 --> 00:33:52,520
they have in their favour. 
People do not trust the 

670
00:33:52,520 --> 00:33:55,400
Conservatives on the NHS. 
People do not trust reform on 

671
00:33:55,400 --> 00:33:57,400
the NHS. 
Lots of voters are worried that 

672
00:33:57,560 --> 00:33:59,880
Nigel Farage might privatize the
health service. 

673
00:33:59,880 --> 00:34:02,720
That is something consistently 
that I hear in my focus groups, 

674
00:34:02,720 --> 00:34:04,440
and you can see this in the data
as well. 

675
00:34:04,640 --> 00:34:07,000
It should be a card Labor can 
play. 

676
00:34:07,000 --> 00:34:09,840
It is one in which they are 
already making progress, albeit 

677
00:34:09,840 --> 00:34:12,320
slow progress. 
And that seems to me a very good

678
00:34:12,320 --> 00:34:15,239
opportunity to keep going and 
show actual progress. 

679
00:34:15,280 --> 00:34:18,199
Obviously it's a difficult task,
but that's what I would do. 

680
00:34:18,199 --> 00:34:21,840
And for what it's worth, you 
know, I mean been this podcast 

681
00:34:21,840 --> 00:34:23,840
has been fairly critical of Wes 
Streeting so far. 

682
00:34:23,840 --> 00:34:26,280
But I did think during Labour 
conference I was listening to 

683
00:34:26,280 --> 00:34:29,920
Wes Streeting on a media round 
and he was asked to talk about 

684
00:34:29,920 --> 00:34:33,080
the reform indefinite leave to 
remain policy, much as Kier 

685
00:34:33,080 --> 00:34:35,920
Starmer had. 
And I thought Wes Streeting's 

686
00:34:35,920 --> 00:34:40,000
reply was naturally one that 
would carry a lot more weight 

687
00:34:40,000 --> 00:34:41,760
and be more persuasive with the 
public. 

688
00:34:41,760 --> 00:34:45,360
He straight away framed it as an
issue to do with the NHS and to 

689
00:34:45,360 --> 00:34:48,040
do with NHS workers and about 
treating them fairly and not 

690
00:34:48,040 --> 00:34:50,239
crippling the NHS. 
And he did it in a way that 

691
00:34:50,239 --> 00:34:52,600
seemed authentic to him, and I 
just thought that was a much 

692
00:34:52,600 --> 00:34:57,840
better way of taking on reform. 
Zoe I mean, it's a lost cause 

693
00:34:57,840 --> 00:35:01,840
for you, isn't? 
It look, this kind of politics 

694
00:35:01,840 --> 00:35:03,080
is a lost cause for me. 
Yeah. 

695
00:35:03,200 --> 00:35:07,440
I mean, the, the party, the, the
party hasn't, the party has kind

696
00:35:07,440 --> 00:35:11,600
of peeled away from its from its
own values without really 

697
00:35:11,600 --> 00:35:12,960
replacing them with anything 
obvious. 

698
00:35:12,960 --> 00:35:19,120
You know, people like me or even
me made a lot when Tony Blair 

699
00:35:19,120 --> 00:35:23,200
came in. 
But at least they had a project.

700
00:35:23,280 --> 00:35:25,120
At least they would tell you 
what it was. 

701
00:35:25,360 --> 00:35:27,480
At least they would fight you 
about it, right? 

702
00:35:27,480 --> 00:35:31,440
They would air arguments to you 
and and argue them 

703
00:35:31,440 --> 00:35:34,080
intellectually because they had 
meaning. 

704
00:35:34,560 --> 00:35:37,840
I just did this this lot. 
They they they can't bring their

705
00:35:37,840 --> 00:35:39,880
arguments because they don't 
have arguments. 

706
00:35:40,800 --> 00:35:43,480
John. 
Look, I think Labour has a case 

707
00:35:43,480 --> 00:35:45,080
to make. 
It's got a progressive case to 

708
00:35:45,080 --> 00:35:48,520
make and the the the government 
stumbles when it doesn't have a 

709
00:35:48,520 --> 00:35:51,200
case. 
It had no case about cutting to 

710
00:35:51,200 --> 00:35:53,000
simply benefits. 
It couldn't answer the question,

711
00:35:53,000 --> 00:35:55,560
had no case to make about 
cutting winter fuel payments. 

712
00:35:56,000 --> 00:36:02,680
Now we have a situation where 
#10 have have decided they want 

713
00:36:03,160 --> 00:36:07,240
to provoke a leadership contest.
I don't think a leisure contest 

714
00:36:07,240 --> 00:36:09,720
is a great idea or a solution in
itself. 

715
00:36:10,040 --> 00:36:13,000
I do think a contest of ideas 
would be a good thing because 

716
00:36:13,000 --> 00:36:15,800
there's a lot of ferment on the 
progressive side of politics and

717
00:36:15,800 --> 00:36:18,520
there's a lot of demands on 
across all of politics. 

718
00:36:18,800 --> 00:36:21,960
And I don't think that people 
are settling to be, let's be a 

719
00:36:21,960 --> 00:36:24,120
right wing country. 
Look at how badly the Tories are

720
00:36:24,120 --> 00:36:26,840
doing. 
They do want disruption, they do

721
00:36:26,840 --> 00:36:29,160
want change. 
They've voted for change in so 

722
00:36:29,160 --> 00:36:32,160
many ways in the last decade, 
whether for Brexit, for Corbyn, 

723
00:36:32,160 --> 00:36:36,200
for for Starmer, for Johnson. 
Labour had to be able to say 

724
00:36:36,320 --> 00:36:40,160
this is the change that we need 
as a country, this is how we 

725
00:36:40,160 --> 00:36:42,640
will deliver it. 
We may need new faces and new 

726
00:36:42,640 --> 00:36:46,400
voices to go with new ideas and 
new policies, but we also need 

727
00:36:46,400 --> 00:36:50,320
to accept we did lose our way 
the last 18 months. 

728
00:36:50,640 --> 00:36:52,760
I could defend the record 
because there's many great 

729
00:36:52,760 --> 00:36:56,240
things, but there's something 
gone wrong and I think 

730
00:36:56,240 --> 00:36:58,840
Scarlett's got it. 
Scarlett hears it in in our 

731
00:36:58,840 --> 00:37:03,120
focus groups, we lose Scarlett's
focus groups, you lose Zoe 

732
00:37:03,120 --> 00:37:04,920
Williams. 
What is a Labour government 

733
00:37:04,920 --> 00:37:07,320
doing that can't keep working 
people and can't keep Zoe 

734
00:37:07,320 --> 00:37:10,440
Williams in broad support And 
what's, what is this government,

735
00:37:10,440 --> 00:37:12,560
Labour government doing? 
What's Keir Starmer doing when 

736
00:37:12,560 --> 00:37:15,320
he makes Zoe make the case for 
Tony Blair? 

737
00:37:17,200 --> 00:37:20,440
On on that note, thank you all 
very much indeed. 

738
00:37:20,440 --> 00:37:22,480
That's the forecast. 
Until next time, bye bye.