1 00:00:00,040 --> 00:00:03,760 The Mexican government has long shared control of Mexico with 2 00:00:03,760 --> 00:00:05,680 its different criminal organisations. 3 00:00:05,680 --> 00:00:10,720 So no, I don't think Mexican citizens necessarily feel that 4 00:00:10,720 --> 00:00:12,600 the Mexican government is in charge. 5 00:00:12,600 --> 00:00:16,720 Cartels, an organised crime, will not go anywhere near 6 00:00:17,320 --> 00:00:19,840 tourists for the World Cup. At the same time, you will be 7 00:00:19,840 --> 00:00:25,320 extremely near areas that the cartels control, and also you'll 8 00:00:25,320 --> 00:00:28,760 be very near places where the cartels are burying vast amounts 9 00:00:28,760 --> 00:00:31,880 of disappeared bodies. Has this revealed the 10 00:00:32,200 --> 00:00:34,680 inconvenient truth about who really runs Mexico? 11 00:00:39,560 --> 00:00:41,320 Hello and welcome to the forecast. 12 00:00:41,320 --> 00:00:44,480 Huge swathes of Mexico have been shut down by a surge of violence 13 00:00:44,720 --> 00:00:47,320 by drug cartels. After the arrest and killing of 14 00:00:47,320 --> 00:00:51,040 a drug Lord called El Mencho. He had a $15 million bounty on 15 00:00:51,040 --> 00:00:52,520 his head courtesy of Donald Trump. 16 00:00:52,760 --> 00:00:55,800 But when Mexican special forces mounted a raid, he ended up 17 00:00:55,800 --> 00:00:59,040 dead, unleashing a wave of violence across the country, 18 00:00:59,280 --> 00:01:02,600 with cartels torching businesses and setting up burning 19 00:01:02,600 --> 00:01:05,440 blockades. Tourists in resorts have been 20 00:01:05,440 --> 00:01:08,200 told to stay indoors and a number of football matches have 21 00:01:08,200 --> 00:01:11,000 been cancelled, including in cities about to host this 22 00:01:11,000 --> 00:01:14,280 summer's World Cup. So can the Mexican government 23 00:01:14,280 --> 00:01:17,160 regain control? Or does this show that it is the 24 00:01:17,160 --> 00:01:19,560 drug gangs who actually run the country? 25 00:01:20,040 --> 00:01:23,000 In a moment, I'll speak to Cecilia Fafa Mendez, head of the 26 00:01:23,000 --> 00:01:26,200 North American Observatory at the Global Initiative Against 27 00:01:26,200 --> 00:01:29,640 Transnational Organized Crime, and Benjamin Smith, professor of 28 00:01:29,640 --> 00:01:32,720 Latin American history at the University of Warwick and author 29 00:01:32,720 --> 00:01:35,720 of The Dope, The Real History of the Mexican Drug Trade. 30 00:01:35,960 --> 00:01:38,960 But first, let's go to Deborah Bonello, who's an investigative 31 00:01:38,960 --> 00:01:43,200 reporter based in Mexico City and managing editor of Insight 32 00:01:43,200 --> 00:01:47,120 Crime, a think tank focused on organized crime in Latin 33 00:01:47,120 --> 00:01:49,400 America. Deborah, what's been happening 34 00:01:49,520 --> 00:01:51,600 and what's which is it having on people well? 35 00:01:51,720 --> 00:01:55,960 Following the killing of Alimento yesterday morning, I 36 00:01:55,960 --> 00:01:59,880 believe there were some 250 blockades according to the 37 00:01:59,880 --> 00:02:03,680 Mexican government that took place across around 20 different 38 00:02:03,920 --> 00:02:06,520 states in Mexico. To be to be clear, even though 39 00:02:06,520 --> 00:02:11,920 it's called the Helisco Cartel, it has but tentacles all around 40 00:02:11,920 --> 00:02:14,680 the country really. And I think the violence very 41 00:02:14,680 --> 00:02:17,200 much reflected that. I know a lot of people who have 42 00:02:17,200 --> 00:02:22,200 been trapped in Halisco unable to leave via the airport or, or 43 00:02:22,200 --> 00:02:25,600 or via the the highways there because of the the security 44 00:02:25,600 --> 00:02:29,280 operation that's come in response to the sort of cartel 45 00:02:29,280 --> 00:02:31,880 push back. What is the effect when these 46 00:02:31,880 --> 00:02:33,680 sorts of things happen? Because this is not the first 47 00:02:33,680 --> 00:02:38,400 time, you know, do do people feel the government's in 48 00:02:38,400 --> 00:02:41,160 control, the police are in control or the cartels or a bit 49 00:02:41,160 --> 00:02:43,640 of everything? I think it's a little bit of 50 00:02:43,640 --> 00:02:45,240 everything. You know, it's important to keep 51 00:02:45,240 --> 00:02:48,360 in mind that there is kind of a criminal government governance 52 00:02:48,360 --> 00:02:52,880 that exists in Mexico that has been established by the sort of 53 00:02:53,320 --> 00:02:57,120 metastasizing cartel power that you've seen across the country. 54 00:02:57,400 --> 00:03:02,440 So no, I don't think Mexican citizens necessarily feel that 55 00:03:02,440 --> 00:03:04,280 the Mexican government is in charge. 56 00:03:04,280 --> 00:03:07,720 And there has been a lot of kind of chaos and disruption across 57 00:03:07,720 --> 00:03:09,160 the country. Now, of course, the the 58 00:03:09,160 --> 00:03:13,920 government of Claudia Shanebaum will be very keen to bring 59 00:03:13,920 --> 00:03:16,560 things back under control. But the fact of the matter is 60 00:03:16,560 --> 00:03:20,440 that the Mexican government has long shared control of Mexico 61 00:03:20,560 --> 00:03:22,840 with its different criminal organisations. 62 00:03:23,600 --> 00:03:27,680 And and when you then see huge numbers of security forces on 63 00:03:27,680 --> 00:03:30,920 the streets trying to restore order, I imagine that's pretty 64 00:03:30,920 --> 00:03:33,880 scary too. You know, it's been 20 years 65 00:03:33,880 --> 00:03:38,160 since the government launched a crackdown on organised crime in 66 00:03:38,160 --> 00:03:40,360 Mexico. So for better or for worse, 67 00:03:40,360 --> 00:03:42,960 Mexicans are pretty used to seeing the military on the 68 00:03:42,960 --> 00:03:46,400 streets. What we did see, you know, 69 00:03:46,600 --> 00:03:52,160 yesterday was kind of an unprecedented threats of 70 00:03:52,160 --> 00:03:55,560 reaction from organised crime, but smaller versions of this 71 00:03:55,560 --> 00:03:58,600 have been going on for the last two decades at least. 72 00:03:58,760 --> 00:04:01,720 What signal are they sending? Not that it's very subtle. 73 00:04:02,520 --> 00:04:04,840 It's not subtle at all. And the signal they're sending 74 00:04:04,840 --> 00:04:12,120 is, you know, we we won't be told what we usually see from 75 00:04:12,120 --> 00:04:15,480 the decapitation of criminal organisations like this. 76 00:04:15,640 --> 00:04:18,920 It's a detonation of violence because now there's kind of a 77 00:04:18,920 --> 00:04:24,800 scrum to replace not the only El Mencho, but, you know, all the 78 00:04:24,800 --> 00:04:27,560 different kind of regional leadership agreements that, 79 00:04:27,720 --> 00:04:31,160 that, that, that exist across Mexico. 80 00:04:31,920 --> 00:04:35,800 So the, the cartel messages, we, we won't be cowed, we won't be 81 00:04:35,800 --> 00:04:39,240 controlled. And we have, you know, they're 82 00:04:39,240 --> 00:04:43,080 showing off the, the, the criminal governance that they 83 00:04:43,080 --> 00:04:46,000 have, as well as the firepower and the capacity for violence 84 00:04:46,000 --> 00:04:48,560 and chaos. When they lose a leader like our 85 00:04:48,560 --> 00:04:52,120 Mencho, what effect does it have on the cartel? 86 00:04:52,120 --> 00:04:55,560 Does it spark chaos or you know, or you know a power struggle or 87 00:04:55,560 --> 00:04:56,920 what? Yeah. 88 00:04:56,920 --> 00:04:59,760 Well, I mean, it sparks a leadership contest, right. 89 00:04:59,760 --> 00:05:02,560 And if, if you've been following things in Mexico, you'll see 90 00:05:02,560 --> 00:05:06,240 that about 18 months ago, they did very, a very similar thing 91 00:05:06,240 --> 00:05:09,800 to the Sinaloa cartel. We saw the the high profile 92 00:05:09,800 --> 00:05:12,440 arrest of Ismail El Maya, Zambala. 93 00:05:12,440 --> 00:05:16,000 And that followed, of course, El Chapo's arrest and extradition 94 00:05:16,920 --> 00:05:22,080 starting in 2018-2019. And since the the decapitation, 95 00:05:22,080 --> 00:05:25,880 if you like, of the Sinaloa, Qatar, we've seen this internal 96 00:05:25,880 --> 00:05:29,200 war erupt in Sinaloa, which has been going on for the last 18 97 00:05:29,200 --> 00:05:31,600 months. There's a steady curfew there 98 00:05:32,040 --> 00:05:35,720 every night. Violence is is constant. 99 00:05:36,000 --> 00:05:38,320 People live under under siege really. 100 00:05:38,320 --> 00:05:43,440 And I think we can expect to see a similar version of that play 101 00:05:43,440 --> 00:05:45,800 out in the Jalisco Cartel strongholds. 102 00:05:45,960 --> 00:05:48,160 Deborah, thank you very much indeed for joining us. 103 00:05:48,360 --> 00:05:51,280 Let's turn now to Cecilia and Benjamin. 104 00:05:51,320 --> 00:05:53,800 Let's begin with Benjamin. What's going on? 105 00:05:53,880 --> 00:05:56,840 So what we know is that the Mexican military, probably aided 106 00:05:56,840 --> 00:06:02,320 by the CIA, which has happened before, yesterday, attempted to 107 00:06:02,320 --> 00:06:07,120 arrest and inadvertently killed the head of a vast organised 108 00:06:07,120 --> 00:06:10,720 crime group called the Cartel Jalisco Nueva Gena Racion. 109 00:06:11,320 --> 00:06:15,000 Since then, members of the Cartel Jalisco have been doing 110 00:06:15,000 --> 00:06:18,760 what is called in Spanish Calintando la Plaza, which is 111 00:06:18,800 --> 00:06:23,800 effectively means showing that they are in control of areas 112 00:06:23,800 --> 00:06:29,480 that they can burn buses on, burn businesses in and blockade 113 00:06:29,480 --> 00:06:32,640 roads in. So it is a show they're doing at 114 00:06:32,640 --> 00:06:34,520 the moment is a kind of show of force. 115 00:06:34,960 --> 00:06:38,720 Cecilia, has this revealed the inconvenient truth about who 116 00:06:38,720 --> 00:06:41,320 really runs Mexico? I think certainly this is not 117 00:06:41,320 --> 00:06:44,280 the first time that we see a reaction by a criminal group 118 00:06:44,280 --> 00:06:47,840 after the arrest, attempted arrest or death of one of its 119 00:06:47,840 --> 00:06:50,320 purported leaders. But I think, you know, to 120 00:06:51,200 --> 00:06:53,480 essentially say that it is criminal groups who run the 121 00:06:53,480 --> 00:06:55,320 country would be certainly misguided. 122 00:06:55,320 --> 00:06:58,320 I think it's certainly important to understand that it was to be 123 00:06:58,320 --> 00:07:01,840 expected that there would be a backlash in the violence that we 124 00:07:01,840 --> 00:07:04,240 are seeing today. But at least today, there are 125 00:07:04,240 --> 00:07:06,760 also reports that there's no more blockades in the country, 126 00:07:06,760 --> 00:07:11,120 no active blockades in highways. And so certainly the question is 127 00:07:11,120 --> 00:07:13,560 how can the Mexican government will be able to contain 128 00:07:13,560 --> 00:07:15,760 violence. But I would not characterize 129 00:07:15,760 --> 00:07:18,920 these as a criminal group essentially having more 130 00:07:18,920 --> 00:07:21,080 firepower capacity than the state does. 131 00:07:21,240 --> 00:07:26,120 How much support and firepower do they actually have? 132 00:07:26,280 --> 00:07:29,480 I mean are are they effectively private armies? 133 00:07:32,480 --> 00:07:36,480 I mean, we know certainly from, you know, the evidence and 134 00:07:36,480 --> 00:07:39,320 certainly like events from yesterday that these are heavily 135 00:07:39,320 --> 00:07:43,160 armed groups that are also early tech adopters, if you will, in 136 00:07:43,160 --> 00:07:45,800 the sense that they are willing to innovate and be able to 137 00:07:45,800 --> 00:07:49,920 contest the state's capacity. But I would again, you know, 138 00:07:50,040 --> 00:07:53,000 even if they are heavily armed and certainly this links to a 139 00:07:53,000 --> 00:07:56,120 very important bilateral issue which is that a firearms 140 00:07:56,120 --> 00:07:59,000 trafficking, I wouldn't characterize them as having or 141 00:07:59,160 --> 00:08:03,280 outgunning the Mexican state it. Appears the Americans were very 142 00:08:03,280 --> 00:08:06,960 involved in this particular operation, though, and the key 143 00:08:06,960 --> 00:08:08,600 intelligence may have come from them. 144 00:08:11,240 --> 00:08:13,840 Yes. So the US press secretary has 145 00:08:13,840 --> 00:08:17,680 mentioned that this was an operation that was conducted 146 00:08:17,880 --> 00:08:20,640 with U.S. intelligence, but there has been a lot of emphasis 147 00:08:20,640 --> 00:08:23,960 and it was conducted by the Mexican Army and Mexican forces. 148 00:08:23,960 --> 00:08:28,160 And even the US government also thanked the Mexican army for, 149 00:08:28,240 --> 00:08:30,280 you know, the actions that took place. 150 00:08:30,280 --> 00:08:34,559 So, you know, at least as of now, the official narrative that 151 00:08:34,559 --> 00:08:37,679 we have or the official version that we have is that this was 152 00:08:38,320 --> 00:08:43,360 possible due to cooperation, but that the actual, the actual 153 00:08:43,600 --> 00:08:46,880 operation in Mexico was carried out by Mexican authorities with 154 00:08:47,040 --> 00:08:48,920 U.S. intelligence. So, Benjamin, if that's the 155 00:08:48,960 --> 00:08:52,080 official narrative, what what? What is the real the 156 00:08:52,080 --> 00:08:54,800 relationship and the politics of what's going on here? 157 00:08:55,120 --> 00:08:59,040 As to why the Mexicans would act and do something that they would 158 00:08:59,040 --> 00:09:00,760 have known would be very provocative. 159 00:09:00,760 --> 00:09:05,040 As Cecilia says, there have been similar uprisings in the past 160 00:09:05,040 --> 00:09:07,600 when they've tried to grab key figures. 161 00:09:09,000 --> 00:09:09,760 Yeah. I mean, I think it's 162 00:09:09,760 --> 00:09:11,920 particularly risky. The Mexican government over the 163 00:09:11,920 --> 00:09:15,360 last year has been very heavy on showing that it's bringing down 164 00:09:15,360 --> 00:09:17,560 homicide rates. Now, I'm sure Cecilia and I can 165 00:09:17,560 --> 00:09:20,120 talk about whether that is true, whether they're actually 166 00:09:20,120 --> 00:09:23,760 bringing down homicide rates, because I think that's very much 167 00:09:23,760 --> 00:09:27,760 open to discussion. However, you're right in saying 168 00:09:27,760 --> 00:09:32,640 that either arresting or killing Mensch or they knew it would 169 00:09:32,640 --> 00:09:37,120 cause an enormous amount of not only this kind of initial 170 00:09:37,120 --> 00:09:40,400 demonstration of force, but one suspects that in the next few 171 00:09:40,400 --> 00:09:42,920 months we're going to have fairly bloody confrontations 172 00:09:42,920 --> 00:09:46,840 between the remnants of the cartel Helisco for the the 173 00:09:46,840 --> 00:09:50,520 actual control of the cartel. However, I think there are a few 174 00:09:50,520 --> 00:09:53,480 things going on here. A, you've got the World Cup 175 00:09:53,480 --> 00:09:56,360 coming up. So they want to demonstrate that 176 00:09:56,360 --> 00:09:57,680 they have got control of the country. 177 00:09:57,680 --> 00:10:00,880 That's why I think it's quite risky. 2 You've got Trump 178 00:10:00,880 --> 00:10:03,360 putting an enormous amount of pressure on the Mexican 179 00:10:03,520 --> 00:10:06,040 president to clamp down on on organised crime. 180 00:10:07,680 --> 00:10:11,680 At the same time you also have different groups within Mexico. 181 00:10:11,680 --> 00:10:13,880 It's quite noticeable this was done by the military. 182 00:10:14,360 --> 00:10:18,440 Now we know that Claudia Shambaum, the the president is 183 00:10:18,440 --> 00:10:21,920 broadly on the surface support of the media military, but in 184 00:10:21,920 --> 00:10:26,240 actual fact she's trying to balance the military's enormous 185 00:10:26,240 --> 00:10:31,600 control in Mexico with her own federal police force, her own 186 00:10:32,000 --> 00:10:37,000 public security. So one here, how much Claudia 187 00:10:37,000 --> 00:10:43,240 Shane Baum actually knew about this particular, this particular 188 00:10:43,240 --> 00:10:46,480 arrest at all? I mean, it's conceivable that 189 00:10:46,480 --> 00:10:51,480 this was done by the military to a certain extent without her 190 00:10:51,480 --> 00:10:52,160 knowing. Do they? 191 00:10:52,160 --> 00:10:56,520 Have that level of autonomy. They're the biggest military in 192 00:10:56,520 --> 00:11:00,360 Latin America. Do they have that autonomy? 193 00:11:00,360 --> 00:11:02,480 Well, I'm sure no one in the Mexican administration has said 194 00:11:02,480 --> 00:11:04,960 that, but insiders certainly tell me that they do to a 195 00:11:04,960 --> 00:11:08,720 certain have that much autonomy. They are an enormous, extremely 196 00:11:08,720 --> 00:11:11,240 powerful military. I think, and correct me if I'm 197 00:11:11,240 --> 00:11:14,160 wrong Cecilia, but I think there's somewhere around 450,000 198 00:11:14,160 --> 00:11:16,400 of them. Cecilia. 199 00:11:19,680 --> 00:11:23,440 I mean, I, I have a different take on, you know, the autonomy 200 00:11:23,440 --> 00:11:25,440 of the military. And certainly what I, I would 201 00:11:25,440 --> 00:11:28,240 say is that, you know, regardless of whether the 202 00:11:28,240 --> 00:11:31,440 president knew or didn't know about this, what was going to 203 00:11:31,440 --> 00:11:34,600 happen. I think it's a smart move for 204 00:11:34,600 --> 00:11:37,240 her administration to distance herself from the actual 205 00:11:37,240 --> 00:11:39,840 information that was put out yesterday, for instance, and to 206 00:11:39,840 --> 00:11:44,320 lead the Ministry of Defence to be the one releasing the public 207 00:11:44,320 --> 00:11:46,600 information. And to not to say that she's not 208 00:11:46,600 --> 00:11:49,840 involved, but I think by creating some distance between 209 00:11:49,840 --> 00:11:53,240 that messaging and, you know, letting other ministries inform 210 00:11:53,240 --> 00:11:56,360 about this, she's basically, you know, saying this is a security 211 00:11:56,360 --> 00:11:58,000 issue. And I'm going to let you know my 212 00:11:58,000 --> 00:12:01,440 agents who deal with these issues give that message. 213 00:12:01,800 --> 00:12:04,120 But how much pressure is she under from Donald Trump? 214 00:12:06,400 --> 00:12:09,800 I mean, I think certainly, and this is no secret that the US 215 00:12:09,800 --> 00:12:13,200 government has expressed even before the second Trump 216 00:12:13,200 --> 00:12:16,600 administration, a level of frustration with the Mexican 217 00:12:16,600 --> 00:12:20,360 government in terms of fentanyl. I think it's very important to 218 00:12:20,360 --> 00:12:24,240 also note that President Chambon has certainly distance herself 219 00:12:24,320 --> 00:12:26,840 from measures that President Lopez Obrador did. 220 00:12:26,840 --> 00:12:31,200 And mainly she stopped framing fentanyl as AUS only problem. 221 00:12:31,200 --> 00:12:35,200 She's spoken about how this is, you know, she doesn't want 222 00:12:35,200 --> 00:12:37,640 anyone dying from a fentanyl overdose and has definitely 223 00:12:37,640 --> 00:12:41,080 changed the tone of conversation with the US and US engagement. 224 00:12:41,080 --> 00:12:43,840 And while I certainly don't minimize some of the pressure 225 00:12:43,840 --> 00:12:46,400 that the US government has, I will also like to under score 226 00:12:46,400 --> 00:12:49,560 that there's an interest also for Mexico to reduce the levels 227 00:12:49,560 --> 00:12:52,200 of violence, to reduce some of this criminality that can be 228 00:12:52,200 --> 00:12:55,800 quite predatory against individuals and businesses, like 229 00:12:55,800 --> 00:12:59,240 extortion, for instance, which we know is a main source of 230 00:12:59,240 --> 00:13:03,600 income for Jalisco Noah Generacion, which Elemental was 231 00:13:03,600 --> 00:13:05,960 the leader of. So certainly there's that US 232 00:13:05,960 --> 00:13:08,480 conversation, but I would add that there's also an interest in 233 00:13:08,480 --> 00:13:11,560 Mexico in weakening these structures as well. 234 00:13:11,760 --> 00:13:14,880 What what has happened over the last few months to their 235 00:13:14,880 --> 00:13:19,160 business model, given the changes on the border and the 236 00:13:19,160 --> 00:13:23,600 stopping of people you know has has the drug trade been 237 00:13:23,600 --> 00:13:27,160 disrupted? Well, I mean, what is very clear 238 00:13:27,160 --> 00:13:30,640 is fentanyl is still going into the United States and still 239 00:13:30,640 --> 00:13:34,040 killing 10s of thousands of people through overdoses. 240 00:13:34,040 --> 00:13:35,640 I think that's that's completely clear. 241 00:13:35,640 --> 00:13:39,800 And I'm not sure that that's certainly not going to end by 242 00:13:39,800 --> 00:13:42,560 taking out Mensure or any number of of kingpins. 243 00:13:42,560 --> 00:13:46,240 I mean depending how you designate A kingpin, about 200 244 00:13:46,240 --> 00:13:48,960 or so have been arrested or killed over the last 20 years 245 00:13:48,960 --> 00:13:53,280 and it's done absolutely nothing to drug supply in the United 246 00:13:53,280 --> 00:13:56,320 States. In terms of the pressure 247 00:13:56,320 --> 00:13:58,240 there's, I mean, I do think there is an inordinate amount of 248 00:13:58,240 --> 00:14:02,760 pressure that has been put on, on Shamebound to do something. 249 00:14:03,080 --> 00:14:07,000 I think they've what they've done is an extraordinary kind of 250 00:14:07,000 --> 00:14:11,320 propaganda exercise. Over the last year, the Mexican 251 00:14:11,320 --> 00:14:13,760 government claims to have brought homicide rates down by 252 00:14:13,760 --> 00:14:15,960 42%, which is kind of extraordinary. 253 00:14:15,960 --> 00:14:19,040 That's the kind of drop in murders that you see post civil 254 00:14:19,040 --> 00:14:22,200 war. However, I think 2 things are 255 00:14:22,200 --> 00:14:25,240 happening here. 1 they're what they called in the wire duking 256 00:14:25,240 --> 00:14:26,840 the figures. They're putting what are 257 00:14:26,840 --> 00:14:32,240 homicides into claiming their suicides or accidental deaths. 258 00:14:32,240 --> 00:14:36,320 And two, they've come to tacit agreements with the cartels to 259 00:14:36,320 --> 00:14:41,440 bury, to not murder people in public, but rather disappear the 260 00:14:41,440 --> 00:14:44,640 bodies. So I think that that's 261 00:14:45,280 --> 00:14:50,800 effectively shame bound and her security forces answer to this 262 00:14:51,400 --> 00:14:54,800 Trumpian pressure. And I think honestly, Trump 263 00:14:54,800 --> 00:14:58,320 doesn't care. To him, it look to to the 264 00:14:58,320 --> 00:15:03,000 American audience, it looks like Mexico is getting safer. 265 00:15:03,000 --> 00:15:06,200 Murders are going down. Right, So, So what? 266 00:15:06,200 --> 00:15:10,800 What is the relationship in your mind between the governments and 267 00:15:10,800 --> 00:15:17,200 the cartels right now? Well, I think it's again you get 268 00:15:17,200 --> 00:15:20,680 an academic on and they say it's very complicated, not helpful. 269 00:15:20,680 --> 00:15:23,560 I realise that. So effectively it really depends 270 00:15:23,560 --> 00:15:24,960 on the kind of regions that you're talking about. 271 00:15:24,960 --> 00:15:29,440 There is no doubt there are sways of Mexico where both state 272 00:15:29,440 --> 00:15:32,760 governors and town governors, and I think maybe your audience 273 00:15:32,760 --> 00:15:35,800 doesn't know, but town governors or municipal governors, 274 00:15:36,280 --> 00:15:41,240 municipal presidents in Mexico extremely powerful and they have 275 00:15:41,520 --> 00:15:48,560 relatively close relationships with the cartels in certainly in 276 00:15:48,560 --> 00:15:52,520 a lot of western Mexico, the cartels off basically are a kind 277 00:15:52,520 --> 00:15:57,120 of shadow government which are on the one hand moving large 278 00:15:57,120 --> 00:16:02,720 amounts of drugs and illegal timber, illegal mining products, 279 00:16:02,720 --> 00:16:05,440 illegal immigrants, sex trafficked people. 280 00:16:05,880 --> 00:16:08,920 They're moving these things out of Mexico and into the United 281 00:16:08,920 --> 00:16:15,000 States, but they are also fairly integral to the to supporting 282 00:16:15,000 --> 00:16:17,120 governments in these areas as well. 283 00:16:18,040 --> 00:16:21,560 Cecilia, I mean, what would you say about this in terms of what, 284 00:16:21,560 --> 00:16:26,720 what is the real relationship on the ground between formal 285 00:16:26,720 --> 00:16:30,760 authority and the real authority of the cartels? 286 00:16:31,480 --> 00:16:34,000 It largely depends on which parts of the country we're 287 00:16:34,000 --> 00:16:36,560 talking about and what kind of businesses we're talking about. 288 00:16:36,560 --> 00:16:39,520 But I will say, though, is that I think it's very important to 289 00:16:39,520 --> 00:16:43,200 not characterize these as criminal groups running Mexico 290 00:16:43,200 --> 00:16:45,160 and essentially making the decisions and just the 291 00:16:45,160 --> 00:16:46,600 government being there as a puppet. 292 00:16:46,600 --> 00:16:49,480 That's certainly not the situation on the ground and 293 00:16:49,480 --> 00:16:52,880 while certainly there is corruption and especially at the 294 00:16:52,880 --> 00:16:55,880 local level, I wouldn't just say, well, this is the case for 295 00:16:55,880 --> 00:16:58,280 every municipality in the country. 296 00:16:58,280 --> 00:17:00,320 No, but there's certainly coexistence, isn't it? 297 00:17:00,320 --> 00:17:03,400 I mean, my, my very limited experience of Mexico. 298 00:17:03,400 --> 00:17:04,880 I mean, it's quite some years ago. 299 00:17:04,880 --> 00:17:10,400 I was there in 2017 doing a film about murders and the death rate 300 00:17:11,280 --> 00:17:15,480 and, and I, I witnessed a murder in Acapulco. 301 00:17:16,400 --> 00:17:20,040 A man was shot across the road from our hotel and we went down 302 00:17:20,040 --> 00:17:25,280 to the street and nobody dared approach him because the, you 303 00:17:25,560 --> 00:17:28,800 know, the guy from the cartel was still there with a camera, 304 00:17:30,400 --> 00:17:32,320 sort of. And so people were very wary, 305 00:17:32,320 --> 00:17:37,400 obviously, that he waited for the man to die because he'd 306 00:17:37,400 --> 00:17:39,520 only, he'd been shot and injured initially. 307 00:17:39,960 --> 00:17:41,840 And only then did the police turn up. 308 00:17:42,640 --> 00:17:46,120 And it kind of seemed coordinated at the time, you 309 00:17:46,120 --> 00:17:48,520 know, that they kind of, they knew when, when it was safe for 310 00:17:48,520 --> 00:17:52,720 them to move in and when, when the cartel had left. 311 00:17:52,720 --> 00:17:55,120 And you, you know, I, I, I mean, I don't know how much things 312 00:17:55,120 --> 00:17:58,360 have changed over the last nine years, but from what Benjamin is 313 00:17:58,360 --> 00:18:02,480 saying, it's, it's, it's still quite an enmeshed problem. 314 00:18:05,240 --> 00:18:09,560 I mean, surely Mexico has high levels of violence and homicides 315 00:18:09,560 --> 00:18:12,160 and disappearances. I would, you know, add to that. 316 00:18:12,160 --> 00:18:15,800 But that's, you know, an important problem for Mexico and 317 00:18:15,800 --> 00:18:19,040 certainly we have seen egregious forms of corruption. 318 00:18:19,280 --> 00:18:22,240 But again, I think what's very important is to not make a 319 00:18:22,240 --> 00:18:25,640 blanket statement about the country and how these, you know, 320 00:18:25,640 --> 00:18:28,400 just describes everywhere. And I think, you know, over time 321 00:18:28,400 --> 00:18:31,960 it were to look at a map of where violence is distributed in 322 00:18:31,960 --> 00:18:33,680 fluent homicides and disappearances. 323 00:18:34,000 --> 00:18:37,240 You will see that for the most part, this varies considerably 324 00:18:37,240 --> 00:18:38,880 over time. There's a few cities that 325 00:18:38,880 --> 00:18:43,440 remain, you know, hot spots, as it's referred to in the 326 00:18:43,440 --> 00:18:47,360 literature, related to violence. But I, again, I think it depends 327 00:18:47,520 --> 00:18:50,680 sometimes at the time of place who is in power and how these 328 00:18:50,960 --> 00:18:53,080 relationships change. But again, I think it's very 329 00:18:53,080 --> 00:18:55,600 important, especially in the context of bilateral engagement 330 00:18:55,600 --> 00:18:59,280 with the US, to not just portray Mexico as a country that is run 331 00:18:59,280 --> 00:19:01,680 by criminals because that is just, you know, I would agree. 332 00:19:01,680 --> 00:19:03,880 I would say that the evidence is not there for that. 333 00:19:04,120 --> 00:19:06,400 Benjamin I mean, let's turn to the World Cup, which is the 334 00:19:06,400 --> 00:19:10,840 obvious immediate question around Mexico. 335 00:19:10,840 --> 00:19:12,400 People are wondering whether to travel. 336 00:19:13,720 --> 00:19:15,800 I guess the authorities are wondering whether these games 337 00:19:15,800 --> 00:19:19,240 can go ahead. It's only a it's only a few 338 00:19:19,240 --> 00:19:23,360 months away. Yeah, I, well, I mean, I, I, I 339 00:19:23,360 --> 00:19:26,560 would say to any of the audience that I think can go to the World 340 00:19:26,560 --> 00:19:29,400 Cup, it will be completely safe. And there is a fundamental 341 00:19:29,400 --> 00:19:33,760 reason for this is that if you are a Mexican who kills another 342 00:19:33,760 --> 00:19:36,960 Mexican, there is a, it is very, very unlikely you will be 343 00:19:36,960 --> 00:19:39,240 prosecuted. If you are a Mexican who kills a 344 00:19:39,240 --> 00:19:42,200 foreigner, there is a very high likelihood that you will be 345 00:19:42,200 --> 00:19:44,880 prosecuted. So basically cartels and 346 00:19:44,880 --> 00:19:49,640 organised crime will not go anywhere near tourists for the 347 00:19:49,640 --> 00:19:51,640 World Cup. So I would say that they're 348 00:19:51,640 --> 00:19:55,240 probably going to be safe. However, the one thing I would 349 00:19:55,240 --> 00:19:59,880 say is at the same time you will be extremely near areas that the 350 00:19:59,880 --> 00:20:06,240 cartels control and also you'll be very near places where the 351 00:20:06,240 --> 00:20:10,400 cartels are burying vast amounts of disappeared bodies. 352 00:20:10,720 --> 00:20:15,240 I think the about a year ago the Mexican government. 353 00:20:16,000 --> 00:20:19,000 Well, only because the mothers of the disappeared discovered 354 00:20:19,000 --> 00:20:20,000 it. But the mothers of the 355 00:20:20,000 --> 00:20:24,240 disappeared discovered a ranch just outside Guadalajara, which 356 00:20:24,240 --> 00:20:26,560 is one of the sites of the World Cup games. 357 00:20:27,080 --> 00:20:31,880 This ranch had two massive industrial ovens and bone 358 00:20:31,880 --> 00:20:34,560 fragments from literally thousands of victims. 359 00:20:34,560 --> 00:20:38,880 This was run by the cartel Jalisco within, I think, about 360 00:20:38,880 --> 00:20:40,880 30 minutes of a military barracks. 361 00:20:41,080 --> 00:20:43,240 So you're trying to tell me that the military didn't know what 362 00:20:43,240 --> 00:20:46,040 was going on there? Right. 363 00:20:46,040 --> 00:20:49,280 But you but you think as long as they don't try and arrest 364 00:20:49,280 --> 00:20:54,120 anybody else before June, things things should be calm by then? 365 00:20:54,800 --> 00:20:58,120 Well, well, also again, this the, the coal tails aren't 366 00:20:58,120 --> 00:20:59,920 stupid. I mean, you, we say there's been 367 00:20:59,920 --> 00:21:02,400 a lot of violence over the last day, and there has, but it's 368 00:21:02,400 --> 00:21:04,800 been violence that's almost entirely either focused on the 369 00:21:04,800 --> 00:21:09,360 military or the National Guard or on trucks and buses. 370 00:21:10,080 --> 00:21:12,480 They haven't gone after tourists because to do so would be 371 00:21:12,480 --> 00:21:15,000 suicidal. So, Cydia, is that still the 372 00:21:15,000 --> 00:21:17,680 case? I mean, again, I mean, sorry to 373 00:21:17,680 --> 00:21:21,000 harm back to nine years ago, but but that was precisely the story 374 00:21:21,000 --> 00:21:22,360 we were doing. But there were there were lots 375 00:21:22,360 --> 00:21:27,640 of there were lots of tourists in places even like Cancun where 376 00:21:27,640 --> 00:21:30,600 shootings were going on on the beach and people didn't even 377 00:21:30,600 --> 00:21:32,880 notice. I, I went to one shooting 378 00:21:32,880 --> 00:21:35,760 literally on the beach outside one of those five star hotels 379 00:21:36,160 --> 00:21:39,280 and was talking to people who were sort of 100 meters away and 380 00:21:39,280 --> 00:21:41,400 they didn't know, they hadn't even noticed while the police 381 00:21:41,400 --> 00:21:45,520 tape was being being put up. So, so you know, foreigners and 382 00:21:45,520 --> 00:21:50,000 visitors remain safe even if the locals don't. 383 00:21:52,840 --> 00:21:55,320 I mean, I'm glad that you bring up the World Cup because I think 384 00:21:55,320 --> 00:21:57,920 this again, allows us to put something that's very important 385 00:21:57,920 --> 00:21:59,560 on the table. And precisely, you know, for 386 00:21:59,560 --> 00:22:02,800 people who love traveling to Mexico, who love to spend their 387 00:22:02,800 --> 00:22:05,520 vacation time there. I think it brings to the table 388 00:22:05,640 --> 00:22:08,760 that the issue again, of farms trafficking and why is it that 389 00:22:08,920 --> 00:22:12,560 criminal groups are able to have this firepower. 390 00:22:12,560 --> 00:22:14,600 And so this is part of the conversation that we want to 391 00:22:14,600 --> 00:22:17,880 have not just stay on a conversation around cartels, but 392 00:22:17,880 --> 00:22:21,600 also question, well, how are they able to, to perpetrate 393 00:22:21,600 --> 00:22:24,800 these levels of violence? And I think to Ben's point of, 394 00:22:24,920 --> 00:22:28,280 you know, foreigners having a relatively degree of safety, I, 395 00:22:28,280 --> 00:22:31,480 I agree with that. I agree that, you know, cartels 396 00:22:31,480 --> 00:22:34,120 and criminal groups learn and adapt over time. 397 00:22:34,120 --> 00:22:35,960 And one thing that they have learned is that going after 398 00:22:35,960 --> 00:22:38,280 foreigners is actually very bad for their business. 399 00:22:38,840 --> 00:22:41,840 And unfortunately, it also underscores that you have 400 00:22:41,840 --> 00:22:43,800 different types of victims in the country. 401 00:22:43,800 --> 00:22:49,160 And, you know, about a year ago, surfers from Australia 402 00:22:49,160 --> 00:22:54,000 disappeared in Baja California. And unlike the 120,000 people 403 00:22:54,000 --> 00:22:56,680 who are missing in Mexico, their bodies were actually found. 404 00:22:56,680 --> 00:22:59,600 And even in this tragedy, what that shows you is that you can 405 00:22:59,640 --> 00:23:03,840 have different types of victims. And again, foreigners you know 406 00:23:04,400 --> 00:23:07,120 is different for them. Thank you both very much indeed. 407 00:23:07,120 --> 00:23:09,000 Cecilia and Benjamin, thank you very much for joining us. 408 00:23:09,960 --> 00:23:11,720 Thank you. Thank you for having us. 409 00:23:12,160 --> 00:23:14,320 And that's the forecast. Until next time, bye bye.