1 00:00:00,040 --> 00:00:01,440 Hello and welcome to the forecast. 2 00:00:01,440 --> 00:00:04,280 I'm Krishna Guru Murthy. The Kashmir conflict between 3 00:00:04,280 --> 00:00:07,720 India and Pakistan is threatening to explode again 4 00:00:08,039 --> 00:00:11,120 after a militant attack in Indian administered Kashmir in 5 00:00:11,120 --> 00:00:15,440 which 26 people were killed. The Indian Prime Minister is 6 00:00:15,440 --> 00:00:18,360 promising to pursue those responsible and punish their 7 00:00:18,360 --> 00:00:22,040 backers and by that he means Pakistan and the Pakistani 8 00:00:22,040 --> 00:00:24,800 military. Diplomatic relations are now at 9 00:00:24,800 --> 00:00:28,600 an all time low and India is also taking action against 10 00:00:28,600 --> 00:00:33,760 Pakistan by threatening at least to restrict the flow of water in 11 00:00:33,760 --> 00:00:36,840 the form of Three Rivers that pass through India before they 12 00:00:36,840 --> 00:00:40,040 get to Pakistan. And that could be extremely 13 00:00:40,040 --> 00:00:44,600 serious for Pakistani people, their farming, their whole 14 00:00:44,880 --> 00:00:47,920 economy. So where is all of this going? 15 00:00:47,920 --> 00:00:51,360 There is a huge drum beat for war in the Indian media. 16 00:00:51,600 --> 00:00:53,960 Is that where it's really going to end up? 17 00:00:53,960 --> 00:00:56,800 Joining us to discuss all of this, the Indian journalist 18 00:00:57,160 --> 00:01:01,120 Manoj Joshi, who's held many positions across lots of Indian 19 00:01:01,120 --> 00:01:04,200 publications and is also an academic and has recently 20 00:01:04,200 --> 00:01:07,120 advised the Indian government on its security measures. 21 00:01:07,120 --> 00:01:10,280 And our correspondent, Sukunda Kamani joins us from the 22 00:01:10,280 --> 00:01:15,000 Pakistani capital, Islamabad. Sukunda is is the Pakistanis who 23 00:01:15,000 --> 00:01:19,560 have been retaliating with their diplomatic measures. 24 00:01:19,600 --> 00:01:24,400 Does it feel like this is getting to a a a new high in 25 00:01:24,400 --> 00:01:26,720 terms of tension? Certainly tensions are 26 00:01:26,720 --> 00:01:30,680 absolutely escalating. We saw today, as you said, this 27 00:01:30,680 --> 00:01:33,920 kind of tit for tat diplomatic measures announced by the 28 00:01:33,920 --> 00:01:37,760 Pakistanis almost really repeating blow for blow what the 29 00:01:37,760 --> 00:01:39,480 Indians had announced the day before. 30 00:01:39,480 --> 00:01:42,600 For example, banning Indian flights from using Pakistani 31 00:01:42,600 --> 00:01:46,840 airspace, revoking Indian visas, closing the Pakistani side of 32 00:01:46,840 --> 00:01:50,480 the of the the border. That land border crossing with 33 00:01:50,480 --> 00:01:54,960 II had already closed. The Indian side of that Pakistan 34 00:01:54,960 --> 00:02:00,240 particularly actually angered and belligerent around what I 35 00:02:00,240 --> 00:02:03,680 think is probably the most significant action that India 36 00:02:03,680 --> 00:02:08,560 has announced so far, which is its plan to withdraw from the 37 00:02:08,800 --> 00:02:11,240 what's known as the Indus Waters Treaty. 38 00:02:11,240 --> 00:02:15,960 Now, this is a kind of rather technical agreement there's been 39 00:02:15,960 --> 00:02:19,960 in place for around 60 years governing how water from six 40 00:02:19,960 --> 00:02:23,280 rivers is shared between the two countries. 41 00:02:23,280 --> 00:02:26,480 It sounds kind of as if it's not particularly interesting, but 42 00:02:26,480 --> 00:02:28,560 it's crucial particularly for Pakistan. 43 00:02:28,560 --> 00:02:31,000 It feeds around 80% of its agriculture. 44 00:02:31,240 --> 00:02:35,640 And so if India were to divert significant amount of water from 45 00:02:35,640 --> 00:02:40,560 coming into Pakistan, that would be a kind of almost close to 46 00:02:40,560 --> 00:02:43,200 existential issue for for Pakistan. 47 00:02:43,200 --> 00:02:47,120 It's not clear, you know, how quickly significant diversion of 48 00:02:47,120 --> 00:02:50,760 that amount of water really could, could, could occur. 49 00:02:51,280 --> 00:02:54,560 But the Pakistani authorities today after a senior government 50 00:02:54,560 --> 00:02:58,040 meeting saying that they consider any act to divert that 51 00:02:58,040 --> 00:03:00,880 water to be tantamount to an act of war. 52 00:03:01,360 --> 00:03:05,280 But of course, everyone's concerned here and in the region 53 00:03:05,440 --> 00:03:08,240 that there could well be, you know, further escalation that 54 00:03:08,240 --> 00:03:12,160 these diplomatic, this diplomatic flows that are being 55 00:03:12,160 --> 00:03:14,520 traded will be replaced by military strikes. 56 00:03:14,520 --> 00:03:17,000 And that's what we've seen happen in the past after 57 00:03:17,000 --> 00:03:19,080 certain, you know, previous flare ups of this kind. 58 00:03:19,760 --> 00:03:23,280 Manoj, from the Indian point of view, I guess the act of war has 59 00:03:23,280 --> 00:03:24,720 already happened. Absolutely. 60 00:03:24,840 --> 00:03:29,200 Meaning, you know, what is the extraordinary about the Pentagon 61 00:03:29,200 --> 00:03:35,320 incident Was that for the past 20 years, tourists have not been 62 00:03:35,320 --> 00:03:39,000 targeted. Tourists have not been targeted 63 00:03:39,000 --> 00:03:45,400 because the terrorists, their ostensible reason for being in 64 00:03:45,400 --> 00:03:48,000 Kashmir is to fight for Kashmir's independence. 65 00:03:48,480 --> 00:03:53,040 And so they, in the interest of the Kashmiris who benefit from 66 00:03:53,240 --> 00:03:56,520 the massive tourism that comes from India, they had not 67 00:03:56,520 --> 00:03:59,040 targeted tourists. The very fact that they have 68 00:03:59,040 --> 00:04:04,360 targeted tourists indicate a qualitative shift in the 69 00:04:04,520 --> 00:04:07,960 Pakistani tactics. And I deliberately say Pakistani 70 00:04:07,960 --> 00:04:12,000 because I have no doubt in my mind that these people who come, 71 00:04:12,240 --> 00:04:17,800 they come through an extremely militarised line of control, you 72 00:04:17,800 --> 00:04:20,200 know, a ceasefire line of control which marks the border 73 00:04:20,200 --> 00:04:23,960 between the two countries. This is extremely miniaturised 74 00:04:23,960 --> 00:04:29,040 and they can't possibly make their way to the Indian part of 75 00:04:29,040 --> 00:04:34,720 the border without assistance from the Pakistan Army. 76 00:04:34,840 --> 00:04:38,960 And and so India's belief is that the Pakistani army are 77 00:04:38,960 --> 00:04:43,200 behind this in some way. Oh, absolutely, absolutely. 78 00:04:43,200 --> 00:04:45,160 They they have no doubt in their mind. 79 00:04:45,360 --> 00:04:48,120 I mean, just to jump in there, Chris, I mean, of course you 80 00:04:48,120 --> 00:04:50,560 know the, the Pakistani officials have have you know 81 00:04:50,560 --> 00:04:54,160 here have been strenuous in denying that they have any 82 00:04:54,160 --> 00:04:57,160 responsibility or any role in the attack. 83 00:04:57,320 --> 00:05:01,520 I mean what is clear is that historically certainly Pakistan 84 00:05:01,520 --> 00:05:06,240 has absolutely sponsored pro Kashmiri militants. 85 00:05:06,560 --> 00:05:11,200 Many in Indian administered Kashmir actually at times have 86 00:05:11,200 --> 00:05:14,760 resented Pakistan's role and they see them as having hijacked 87 00:05:14,800 --> 00:05:21,360 a kind of a local insurgency that was that kind of began due 88 00:05:21,360 --> 00:05:24,320 to nationalist reasons or ethno nationalist regions and and 89 00:05:24,320 --> 00:05:27,720 tried to kind of transform it into a a more Islamist one and 90 00:05:27,720 --> 00:05:31,000 one that was more aligned with Pakistan's strategic interests. 91 00:05:31,640 --> 00:05:34,360 So certainly historically, yes, there have been very close 92 00:05:34,360 --> 00:05:37,480 relationships, particularly with some of the militant groups like 93 00:05:37,480 --> 00:05:39,520 Lashkar Daiba. That's the group that Indian 94 00:05:39,520 --> 00:05:44,600 officials alleges is actually behind this attack in Pahalgam, 95 00:05:45,120 --> 00:05:49,360 even though another far lesser known Group, A much more kind of 96 00:05:49,360 --> 00:05:52,360 recently established group, the Resistance Front, has has 97 00:05:52,360 --> 00:05:57,920 claimed credit for it. What's not clear to me is is yet 98 00:05:57,920 --> 00:06:01,840 whether there is definitive evidence linking this particular 99 00:06:01,840 --> 00:06:05,880 attack to the Pakistani intelligence services or not. 100 00:06:06,200 --> 00:06:08,440 It's conceivable that they were involved. 101 00:06:08,960 --> 00:06:13,680 On the other hand, one questions what Pakistan would feel it has 102 00:06:13,680 --> 00:06:20,120 to gain from doing something at this time when it's trying to 103 00:06:20,120 --> 00:06:23,800 stabilise its economy. Its own government is quite 104 00:06:23,800 --> 00:06:26,360 unpopular. The military establishment for 105 00:06:26,360 --> 00:06:29,640 the first time, one of the first times in in it's history, it it 106 00:06:29,640 --> 00:06:35,440 has faced a a serious public backlash by by by critics and 107 00:06:35,440 --> 00:06:39,160 supporters of of opposition parties that that the military 108 00:06:39,160 --> 00:06:41,600 establishment has been kind of cracking down on. 109 00:06:42,600 --> 00:06:44,960 I suppose conversely, you could say maybe that's the reason why 110 00:06:44,960 --> 00:06:48,400 they might want to kind of conduct A foray like this. 111 00:06:48,400 --> 00:06:53,680 But but it, it, it doesn't seem clear cut to me that there is, 112 00:06:53,680 --> 00:06:57,640 there is as yet firm evidence of, of Pakistani involvement. 113 00:06:57,640 --> 00:07:00,960 And of course we do know that, you know, there is, there are 114 00:07:00,960 --> 00:07:05,040 genuine grievances within Indian administered Kashmir. 115 00:07:05,040 --> 00:07:08,000 It's one of the most heavily militarised places in the world. 116 00:07:08,560 --> 00:07:12,480 There are, you know, frequent reports of, of human rights 117 00:07:12,480 --> 00:07:16,880 abuses by those security forces. So it's also conceivable that an 118 00:07:16,880 --> 00:07:21,480 attack could be carried out by, you know, local, local militants 119 00:07:21,480 --> 00:07:25,600 who wanted to, you know, put the Kashmir issue back into their 120 00:07:25,600 --> 00:07:29,520 headlines and back into the global agenda in a way that, you 121 00:07:29,520 --> 00:07:32,960 know, after many years of it having fallen away. 122 00:07:32,960 --> 00:07:36,200 Really as a, as a, as as an issue even within the region, 123 00:07:36,200 --> 00:07:39,000 let alone, let alone globally. Manoj, the point is, from 124 00:07:39,000 --> 00:07:44,000 India's point of view, they are absolutely clear that Pakistan 125 00:07:44,000 --> 00:07:48,040 has always been linked to militants acting in Kashmir. 126 00:07:48,040 --> 00:07:51,240 And the big question is, is, is not sort of, are they going to 127 00:07:51,480 --> 00:07:53,720 provide the evidence to the outside world because they don't 128 00:07:53,720 --> 00:07:56,120 feel the need really. The big question is how are they 129 00:07:56,120 --> 00:07:59,360 going to respond? And Modi is talking in a way 130 00:07:59,760 --> 00:08:02,920 that Indian leaders haven't really spoken about before when 131 00:08:02,920 --> 00:08:06,120 he talks not just about going after the perpetrators of the 132 00:08:06,120 --> 00:08:09,120 attack, but the backers. What does that mean? 133 00:08:09,880 --> 00:08:14,080 Well, it means a certain level of frustration in India in the 134 00:08:14,080 --> 00:08:17,560 sense now this has been going on for 30 odd years. 135 00:08:19,160 --> 00:08:22,600 I wrote a book on the 1st about the 1st 10 years of this 136 00:08:22,600 --> 00:08:26,160 militancy. I've looked at that in detail 137 00:08:26,640 --> 00:08:30,760 and Sikandar is right that there was a Kashmiri movement for 138 00:08:31,000 --> 00:08:34,440 separatism, but the Kashmiri movement has been taken over by 139 00:08:34,440 --> 00:08:38,440 the Pakistanis. And today what we are really 140 00:08:38,440 --> 00:08:41,520 seeing, it's the quality of training, it's the weapon 141 00:08:41,520 --> 00:08:48,880 systems that are used which marks out the the jihadi 142 00:08:48,880 --> 00:08:53,880 elements between Lashkar E Taiba elements from the Kashmiri 143 00:08:53,880 --> 00:08:56,800 militancy. Because, you know, and also the 144 00:08:56,800 --> 00:09:00,000 action itself, because the Kashmiri militancy would never 145 00:09:00,000 --> 00:09:03,120 have done something which has actually hurt Kashmir 146 00:09:03,320 --> 00:09:07,560 enormously, being the livelihood of many Kashmiris has been 147 00:09:08,000 --> 00:09:13,080 affected by the collapse of tourist, the tourist season 148 00:09:14,480 --> 00:09:17,360 right now. So I have no doubts in my mind 149 00:09:17,960 --> 00:09:20,840 now why Pakistan did this. And I think Sikandar also 150 00:09:20,840 --> 00:09:26,720 referred to this, that this has to do with the internal 151 00:09:26,720 --> 00:09:29,440 situation in Pakistan. It's not too good. 152 00:09:30,400 --> 00:09:35,000 There are internal insurgencies in Pakistan, the armies flicked, 153 00:09:35,840 --> 00:09:42,160 the economy is in bad shape. The polity, the most popular man 154 00:09:42,160 --> 00:09:44,640 in Pakistan is in jail, meaning Imran Khan. 155 00:09:44,760 --> 00:09:48,240 And so so the point I'm going to make is that with all the 156 00:09:48,640 --> 00:09:53,920 domestic problems drawing, you know, throwing attention to 157 00:09:53,920 --> 00:09:58,040 Kashmir and Kashmir's so-called struggle for freedom, it's an 158 00:09:58,040 --> 00:10:05,200 ideal way for Pakistan to escape from its domestic troubles. 159 00:10:05,320 --> 00:10:08,720 So that that's the hypothesis. But then the question is, you 160 00:10:08,720 --> 00:10:11,160 know, how big is the military action going to be? 161 00:10:11,400 --> 00:10:15,480 You know, we've seen air strikes the last time around in 2019. 162 00:10:15,680 --> 00:10:17,480 It's going to have to be bigger than that, isn't it? 163 00:10:17,800 --> 00:10:23,240 Well, that's my point my you really don't need meaning. 164 00:10:23,240 --> 00:10:27,240 I believe that with the what you India has done on the India's 165 00:10:27,320 --> 00:10:31,080 Indus Waters Treaty, cancellation of the Indus Waters 166 00:10:31,080 --> 00:10:35,880 Treaty, that alone is like, you know, the Pakistanis had their 167 00:10:35,880 --> 00:10:37,840 hands on our throat. We've got their hands on their 168 00:10:37,840 --> 00:10:38,400 throat. Now. 169 00:10:38,640 --> 00:10:43,640 This is a warning to Pakistan that Europe put us in a kind of 170 00:10:43,640 --> 00:10:47,840 an existential situation. We are going to put the do do 171 00:10:47,840 --> 00:10:50,960 the same to you. And so you don't really need 172 00:10:50,960 --> 00:10:54,720 those air strikes and those military that military action. 173 00:10:54,920 --> 00:10:58,400 So you so you don't think that this will be a big military 174 00:10:58,400 --> 00:11:01,040 response right now? It may be from the Pakistani 175 00:11:01,040 --> 00:11:02,880 side because they're they're going to be desperate. 176 00:11:02,960 --> 00:11:06,960 My own feeling is that the government will also incorporate 177 00:11:07,400 --> 00:11:11,200 diplomacy in this. They will get hold of the United 178 00:11:11,200 --> 00:11:16,960 States, Saudi Arabia, UAE, maybe Turkey and other countries into 179 00:11:17,040 --> 00:11:21,040 maybe China and tell Pakistan that, look, guys, you've gone a 180 00:11:21,040 --> 00:11:27,040 step too far and you've got to undo this and you've got to take 181 00:11:28,080 --> 00:11:32,160 do some systematic work in undoing your jihadi machinery. 182 00:11:32,480 --> 00:11:37,120 Now, similar diplomacy had worked a little earlier. 183 00:11:37,360 --> 00:11:41,440 India never managed to punish the Pakistani perpetrators of 184 00:11:41,440 --> 00:11:46,160 the Mumbai attack of 2008, except the one man they caught 185 00:11:46,240 --> 00:11:53,800 and who had hung for it. But in 20/21/22, the Pakistani 186 00:11:53,800 --> 00:11:58,080 were forced to jail Hafiz Saeed, the leader of the Lashkar E 187 00:11:58,080 --> 00:12:03,280 Taiba and Zakir Rahman Lakhvi, his number 2 and as well as 188 00:12:03,280 --> 00:12:07,560 Sajid Mir, who was the actual mastermind of the Mumbai 189 00:12:07,560 --> 00:12:10,120 project. And they were forced to do this 190 00:12:10,120 --> 00:12:14,400 not because on account of terrorism, but on accounts of 191 00:12:14,400 --> 00:12:18,240 money laundering charges. So what I'm trying to say is 192 00:12:18,240 --> 00:12:21,560 that there is room for diplomacy, there is room for 193 00:12:22,360 --> 00:12:24,400 coercive diplomacy, if I may put it that way. 194 00:12:24,760 --> 00:12:28,240 You know there is room for that and maybe India will take that 195 00:12:28,240 --> 00:12:30,480 path. I just do want to pick up on on 196 00:12:30,480 --> 00:12:32,760 what Manoj was talking about on the on the pressure that 197 00:12:32,760 --> 00:12:37,440 Pakistan had been exerting on groups like Rashke Teba in more 198 00:12:37,440 --> 00:12:40,840 recent years, particularly after the the last kind of flare up 199 00:12:40,840 --> 00:12:44,160 that we saw of violence in 20 in 2019. 200 00:12:44,440 --> 00:12:45,880 Because I think it is significant. 201 00:12:45,880 --> 00:12:47,920 And it did, you know, I was based here at the time with for 202 00:12:47,920 --> 00:12:50,120 the BBC. And so I saw a lot of it unfold. 203 00:12:50,400 --> 00:12:53,520 And we, you know, everyone was quite skeptical about exactly 204 00:12:53,520 --> 00:12:55,360 how firm the Pakistani action would be. 205 00:12:55,360 --> 00:12:57,560 And of course, you know, a lot of these figures were placed 206 00:12:57,560 --> 00:13:00,440 under house arrest rather than being placed in kind of, you 207 00:13:00,440 --> 00:13:03,760 know, unpleasant jail cells. But it did seem under for a 208 00:13:03,760 --> 00:13:07,080 while under a former army chief, under a different Prime Minister 209 00:13:07,280 --> 00:13:11,240 that Pakistan actually, after long having been the kind of a 210 00:13:11,680 --> 00:13:14,360 bit more of a pariah state and being kind of widely seen as 211 00:13:14,360 --> 00:13:18,600 sponsoring militant groups, actually was wanting to try and 212 00:13:20,320 --> 00:13:23,080 build a new path for itself within the international 213 00:13:23,080 --> 00:13:25,280 community and move away from that policy. 214 00:13:25,280 --> 00:13:28,600 Having seen that actually it's sponsoring of jihadist groups 215 00:13:28,880 --> 00:13:32,720 literally and quite tragically and bloodily could blow up in 216 00:13:32,720 --> 00:13:36,200 its own face with home grown, you know, Islamist insurgencies 217 00:13:36,200 --> 00:13:38,400 targeting themselves. So, you know, that that's 218 00:13:38,400 --> 00:13:41,480 another thing reason why, you know, I would just somewhat 219 00:13:41,480 --> 00:13:45,440 cautious against blindly accepting the kind of Indian 220 00:13:45,440 --> 00:13:49,800 allegations of that, that Pakistan was necessarily 100% 221 00:13:49,840 --> 00:13:51,440 behind this. It's, it's, it's possible. 222 00:13:51,440 --> 00:13:54,280 It's also possible in my view that it wasn't the case. 223 00:13:54,440 --> 00:13:57,200 You know, just as as India has long accused Pakistan of 224 00:13:57,280 --> 00:14:00,960 sponsoring Kashmiri militants, Pakistan has long accused India 225 00:14:01,240 --> 00:14:05,680 of sponsoring an insurgency in the West of the country by 226 00:14:05,680 --> 00:14:09,560 separatist secular Beloch ethnic rebels who are fighting for an 227 00:14:09,560 --> 00:14:11,600 independent or more autonomous state there. 228 00:14:11,760 --> 00:14:14,240 In terms of what happens next, you know, I think we can look 229 00:14:14,240 --> 00:14:18,720 back at the like I said, the last episode when you had a big 230 00:14:18,720 --> 00:14:23,720 attack in Pulwama in Kashmir, around 4645 Indian soldiers were 231 00:14:23,720 --> 00:14:28,480 killed in an attack again blamed on Kashmiri militants linked to 232 00:14:29,040 --> 00:14:30,760 the Pakistani intelligence services. 233 00:14:31,080 --> 00:14:35,400 India, after initially kind of announcing some diplomatic 234 00:14:35,400 --> 00:14:39,160 measures, then launched its first air strike into Pakistani 235 00:14:39,160 --> 00:14:43,360 territory for something like 50 years, I believe. 236 00:14:44,280 --> 00:14:47,000 And Pakistan then retaliated with its own air strike. 237 00:14:47,320 --> 00:14:50,360 That it seemed like a really dangerous moment between these 238 00:14:50,360 --> 00:14:52,880 two nuclear armed countries that have fought a number of wars 239 00:14:53,080 --> 00:14:56,880 since they were they they became independent from from British 240 00:14:56,880 --> 00:14:59,520 colonialism. And and the only thing that 241 00:14:59,520 --> 00:15:02,400 really stopped that cycle of escalation was that Pakistan 242 00:15:02,400 --> 00:15:07,080 downed an Indian pilot and that his release provided something 243 00:15:07,080 --> 00:15:09,360 of a an opportunity for an off ramp. 244 00:15:09,640 --> 00:15:13,640 But you know, that Indian air strike that we saw in 2019, to 245 00:15:13,640 --> 00:15:17,360 me that sets the baseline of what I think the public in 246 00:15:17,360 --> 00:15:20,360 India, Manoj will know better would demand to see. 247 00:15:20,560 --> 00:15:23,040 And, you know, it's a, it's a public that's also been stirred 248 00:15:23,040 --> 00:15:28,160 by a very nationalist media from, from what I can see as an 249 00:15:28,160 --> 00:15:30,960 outsider. And so I would have thought 250 00:15:30,960 --> 00:15:33,040 there would be a clamour, particularly as Modi has 251 00:15:33,040 --> 00:15:36,120 presented himself as a strongman, as a man who, who, 252 00:15:36,160 --> 00:15:41,280 who is, is facing down what he terms as, as, as kind of 253 00:15:41,320 --> 00:15:44,400 Islamist, the Islamist threat or the jihadist threat. 254 00:15:45,040 --> 00:15:47,920 There would be real domestic pressure on him to go beyond 255 00:15:47,920 --> 00:15:50,320 what he's already announced and react militarily. 256 00:15:50,480 --> 00:15:53,080 And if we look back at previous instances, that military action 257 00:15:53,080 --> 00:15:57,680 has come around a week, 10 days, two weeks after the initial 258 00:15:57,680 --> 00:15:59,680 militant attack. So I think what we might be 259 00:15:59,680 --> 00:16:03,960 seeing now is the kind of preparation, Indian officials 260 00:16:03,960 --> 00:16:05,840 kind of preparing the international community, 261 00:16:05,840 --> 00:16:09,480 briefing foreign ambassadors, for example, about their 262 00:16:09,480 --> 00:16:10,920 narrative. Pakistan's trying to do the 263 00:16:10,920 --> 00:16:14,480 same, laying the groundwork potentially for some kind of 264 00:16:14,480 --> 00:16:17,400 military action that could, I think, quite likely supersede 265 00:16:17,400 --> 00:16:18,880 what we've already seen in the past. 266 00:16:19,200 --> 00:16:21,680 I mean, Maurice, let's just talk about the domestic politics of 267 00:16:21,680 --> 00:16:24,400 this in India as well, having talked about the domestic 268 00:16:24,400 --> 00:16:28,880 situation in Pakistan. I mean, the the news channels in 269 00:16:28,880 --> 00:16:33,040 India are sort of screaming for revenge right now. 270 00:16:33,040 --> 00:16:36,840 And you also have in Modi a nationalist, but a nationalist 271 00:16:37,080 --> 00:16:41,480 who didn't do brilliantly at the last elections and could do with 272 00:16:41,480 --> 00:16:44,360 something that pulls his side together as well. 273 00:16:44,560 --> 00:16:47,200 You know, how much of a temptation is there going to be 274 00:16:47,200 --> 00:16:50,480 to him to have a short victorious war? 275 00:16:50,600 --> 00:16:52,520 Any war between Pakistan and India. 276 00:16:53,240 --> 00:16:58,760 The notion of victory is somewhat dubious in the sense we 277 00:16:58,760 --> 00:17:04,720 don't what would victory mean? So short victorious war, You 278 00:17:04,720 --> 00:17:10,119 know, it's almost an oxymoron in in a certain way, because both 279 00:17:10,119 --> 00:17:13,280 are nuclear weapons powers, you know, both new air distinct. 280 00:17:13,720 --> 00:17:20,000 You could have a short skirmish, a short skirmish, a short an 281 00:17:20,000 --> 00:17:25,240 Indian attack, maybe a missile attack, let's say on Muritke, 282 00:17:25,240 --> 00:17:30,760 the headquarters of the Lashkar E Taiba, you see. 283 00:17:31,160 --> 00:17:38,040 But in my view, the real problem is the Pakistan military and 284 00:17:38,040 --> 00:17:43,520 unless and until there is some way in which the Pakistan 285 00:17:43,520 --> 00:17:51,240 military can be deterred from its operation against India, its 286 00:17:51,240 --> 00:17:52,680 military operation against India. 287 00:17:52,960 --> 00:17:58,400 But now I would hesitate to say that India has no intelligence 288 00:17:58,400 --> 00:18:01,160 role. Quite possible that India take 289 00:18:01,160 --> 00:18:04,080 exploiting this. If you look at the long history, 290 00:18:04,960 --> 00:18:07,680 we are looking up Pakistani involvement in terrorism in 291 00:18:07,680 --> 00:18:12,760 India since 1980s. It began with the harvest on 292 00:18:13,760 --> 00:18:16,360 thing and then it went on to the Kashmir thing. 293 00:18:17,520 --> 00:18:20,000 Then there were terrorist incidents in India. 294 00:18:20,640 --> 00:18:26,200 So this is a very, this has a very long history and if today 295 00:18:26,200 --> 00:18:32,960 Pakistan is suffering a kind of a blowback, if I may put it that 296 00:18:32,960 --> 00:18:35,720 way, it has only itself to blame. 297 00:18:35,720 --> 00:18:39,480 So what we're really trying to persuade Pakistan is that 298 00:18:39,480 --> 00:18:45,720 dismantle that machinery. We may talk of Lashkar E Taiba 299 00:18:45,720 --> 00:18:49,240 and Jaish E Muhammad Lashkar E Taiba in particular, that they 300 00:18:49,240 --> 00:18:51,800 have been defanged. I'm not so sure. 301 00:18:52,640 --> 00:18:56,160 I'm not so sure, but because as I pointed out to you that those 302 00:18:56,160 --> 00:19:00,720 people have been jailed on money laundering charges. 303 00:19:01,240 --> 00:19:05,000 If the Pakistanis are serious, extradite them to India when 304 00:19:05,000 --> 00:19:09,160 they are wanted on the on the Mumbai attack of 2008. 305 00:19:09,480 --> 00:19:16,320 We need the Rashkari Taiba chief, Hafid Mohammed Saeed, 306 00:19:16,640 --> 00:19:20,160 Zakir Rahman Lakhvi was the operational commander, Sajid 307 00:19:20,160 --> 00:19:25,200 Mead and the eyesight people and there and there are dozens of 308 00:19:25,200 --> 00:19:29,720 names which we got evidence. And it's not just the evidence 309 00:19:29,720 --> 00:19:31,880 with us. Foreign intelligence agencies 310 00:19:31,880 --> 00:19:36,320 also had picked up evidence. So that's why Tawarana has been 311 00:19:36,480 --> 00:19:41,480 extradited to India. You know, Pakistan should send 312 00:19:41,480 --> 00:19:43,560 these guys. They're accused of a very, very 313 00:19:43,960 --> 00:19:50,280 violent crime in Mumbai, so whatever that could be. 314 00:19:50,440 --> 00:19:53,440 You know, you know, as well as I do that, I mean, that's, I mean, 315 00:19:53,520 --> 00:19:55,280 given the history of the relations between the two 316 00:19:55,280 --> 00:19:58,280 countries, I mean, that's, that's, that's completely, you 317 00:19:58,280 --> 00:20:01,600 know, unfeasible for the, for the Pakistanis to to do. 318 00:20:01,600 --> 00:20:05,080 I mean, I'm not coming, You know, I'm not saying that in any 319 00:20:05,080 --> 00:20:07,720 defence of, of Pakistan's previous actions, but it's, 320 00:20:07,720 --> 00:20:10,960 it's, it's something that I think would be. 321 00:20:12,120 --> 00:20:15,200 Completely impossible for, for, for any government, even with 322 00:20:15,200 --> 00:20:17,400 the best will in the world. I mean, I'll tell you, I'll, I 323 00:20:17,400 --> 00:20:18,720 mean, I'd like to hear your thoughts on it. 324 00:20:18,720 --> 00:20:22,840 But the impression I got when I was when I was based here in 325 00:20:22,840 --> 00:20:26,320 this region kind of day in, day out, which was kind of between 326 00:20:26,320 --> 00:20:32,000 2017 and 2022, was that actually after many years, many decades 327 00:20:32,000 --> 00:20:36,200 really of Pakistan being to be simplistic, the bad guy and 328 00:20:36,200 --> 00:20:39,680 being absolutely a sponsor of of militancy. 329 00:20:40,000 --> 00:20:45,480 Actually there had been a very belated realization even within 330 00:20:45,480 --> 00:20:48,760 the Pakistani military that this policy was self-destructive, 331 00:20:49,080 --> 00:20:52,400 that it was doing immense damage, not only in terms of 332 00:20:52,400 --> 00:20:56,320 spot kind of unleashing militants who were fighting 333 00:20:56,320 --> 00:20:59,200 against the Pakistani army itself, but also in terms of the 334 00:20:59,200 --> 00:21:01,760 country's image and how it was seen as a pariah state. 335 00:21:02,040 --> 00:21:05,800 And actually even within the Army, there was a shift that was 336 00:21:05,800 --> 00:21:07,520 occurring. And that's why we saw, for 337 00:21:07,800 --> 00:21:11,240 example, you know, the last few years across the Line of Control 338 00:21:11,480 --> 00:21:14,680 after there'd been a, a renewal of a renewed commitment to the 339 00:21:14,680 --> 00:21:16,640 ceasefire. There, there'd be, it'd been 340 00:21:16,640 --> 00:21:19,160 much quieter, much less cross-border shelling between 341 00:21:19,160 --> 00:21:21,880 the two sides infiltrations. It'd been, it'd been less. 342 00:21:22,040 --> 00:21:23,920 I know the, I'm sure the Indian government might take some 343 00:21:23,920 --> 00:21:26,400 credit for, for the security measure that they've been, 344 00:21:27,440 --> 00:21:29,920 they've been implementing in in India administered Kashmir, 345 00:21:29,920 --> 00:21:31,520 which human rights groups criticized. 346 00:21:31,520 --> 00:21:34,840 But I think, you know, there did seem to be a deliberate policy 347 00:21:35,080 --> 00:21:37,800 from within the Pakistani military establishment and 348 00:21:37,800 --> 00:21:41,240 intelligence services to move away from that model. 349 00:21:41,440 --> 00:21:45,600 And actually, conversely, in India, after having reacted for 350 00:21:45,600 --> 00:21:49,040 for many decades in a much more restrained fashion, I think 351 00:21:49,040 --> 00:21:52,520 compared to Pakistan was growing increasingly belligerent, 352 00:21:52,520 --> 00:21:55,760 particularly under Modi. And you saw a much greater 353 00:21:55,760 --> 00:21:59,920 nationalist, Hindu nationalist further and desire to, to kind 354 00:21:59,920 --> 00:22:02,520 of talk about taking revenge on Pakistan. 355 00:22:02,520 --> 00:22:06,720 It, it seemed a great tragedy to me that kind of the opportunity 356 00:22:06,720 --> 00:22:10,320 for peace or greater dialogue between these two sides was like 357 00:22:10,600 --> 00:22:13,200 2 ships passing each other. And that, you know, when one 358 00:22:13,200 --> 00:22:15,160 side was, was more open to it, the other side wasn't. 359 00:22:15,160 --> 00:22:18,120 And when the other side was more open to it than, you know, 360 00:22:18,120 --> 00:22:21,880 conversely across the border, they, they weren't open to it. 361 00:22:22,080 --> 00:22:25,120 And, and, and that's what seemed to me to be the the kind of 362 00:22:25,400 --> 00:22:28,240 dynamic of the last few years. Manoj, the other thing that has 363 00:22:28,240 --> 00:22:31,920 obviously changed since the last time we saw a cross-border 364 00:22:32,200 --> 00:22:35,800 skirmish is the geopolitics. Trump in the White House 365 00:22:36,120 --> 00:22:39,800 offering his unconditional support to Modi, a man he 366 00:22:39,800 --> 00:22:43,920 clearly gets on very well with. JD Vance was in India just a 367 00:22:43,920 --> 00:22:46,280 couple of days ago. So that relationship is really 368 00:22:46,280 --> 00:22:48,680 good. The relationship between Modi 369 00:22:48,680 --> 00:22:53,720 and Putin is very, very strong and has been over the last few 370 00:22:53,720 --> 00:22:58,120 years because of that sort of oil deal that the two countries 371 00:22:58,120 --> 00:23:00,520 have been enjoying during the Ukraine war. 372 00:23:00,520 --> 00:23:04,800 So it's a Modi diplomatically and geopolitically is incredibly 373 00:23:04,800 --> 00:23:08,000 strong and doesn't need to worry about the outside world telling 374 00:23:08,000 --> 00:23:16,200 him to stop. Modi has a strong wicket very in 375 00:23:16,200 --> 00:23:18,840 international diplomacy. And as I pointed out to you 376 00:23:18,840 --> 00:23:23,400 earlier that along with this, that's why I'm arguing that 377 00:23:23,400 --> 00:23:27,480 maybe there will be no military strike and maybe it's this Indus 378 00:23:27,480 --> 00:23:29,960 Waters treaty which will be the instrument. 379 00:23:30,680 --> 00:23:34,960 And this instrument is something which right now India is simply 380 00:23:34,960 --> 00:23:40,920 flashing before the Pakistan, but with the help of the 381 00:23:40,920 --> 00:23:43,320 international community. And when I say international 382 00:23:43,320 --> 00:23:52,480 community, I mean Putin, I mean Trump, I mean Saudi Arabia, I 383 00:23:52,480 --> 00:23:55,720 mean UAE. Who can tell Pakistan, who can 384 00:23:55,720 --> 00:23:59,000 push Pakistan in a direction? I think Krish, it's, it's 385 00:23:59,000 --> 00:24:00,680 interesting. I mean, I, I think you're right. 386 00:24:00,680 --> 00:24:05,200 Of course, India is in a, in a strong international position 387 00:24:05,200 --> 00:24:09,760 and, and, but actually, if you look at the language that we've 388 00:24:09,760 --> 00:24:12,720 heard from the US so far, they haven't mentioned, from what I 389 00:24:12,720 --> 00:24:16,840 could see, at least Pakistan. So I'm, I'm not, I'm not sure 390 00:24:16,840 --> 00:24:20,040 necessarily that there's there any. 391 00:24:20,400 --> 00:24:22,840 Well, I think we can be certain that no one in the world wants 392 00:24:22,840 --> 00:24:26,560 to see two nuclear powers go all out at each other's throats. 393 00:24:26,560 --> 00:24:28,080 I mean, it's disastrous for everyone. 394 00:24:29,200 --> 00:24:34,160 And, and I, I think the danger here lies within if, if there is 395 00:24:34,760 --> 00:24:38,680 one, if one side carries out what it sees as a fairly 396 00:24:38,680 --> 00:24:44,240 restrained, perhaps almost face saving limited strike, how is 397 00:24:44,240 --> 00:24:45,600 that perceived by the other side? 398 00:24:45,800 --> 00:24:48,400 Because inevitably, the other side will feel actually they 399 00:24:48,400 --> 00:24:50,120 need to save face to they'll need. 400 00:24:50,120 --> 00:24:52,280 To that, that is always the fear when it comes to injury in 401 00:24:52,280 --> 00:24:53,480 Pakistan. Isn't it exactly? 402 00:24:53,520 --> 00:24:56,320 And then where does it go? And so I think that that is a 403 00:24:56,320 --> 00:24:59,120 very realistic possibility and a massive danger. 404 00:24:59,400 --> 00:25:03,560 I don't get the impression that either side are irresponsible 405 00:25:03,560 --> 00:25:07,360 enough that they're really going for for an all out war or 406 00:25:07,360 --> 00:25:10,040 wanting that to to to happen. That's always the danger, 407 00:25:10,040 --> 00:25:12,280 though. I mean, all, all out war is 408 00:25:12,280 --> 00:25:14,280 obviously horrific for both sides. 409 00:25:14,280 --> 00:25:16,680 And I, I, I suppose I'm not talking about all out war. 410 00:25:16,880 --> 00:25:20,680 But if you, if you, if you listen to the drum beat, if you, 411 00:25:20,720 --> 00:25:24,320 if you listen to the, you know, the way, the way the news 412 00:25:24,320 --> 00:25:26,880 channels are screaming, the way the speeches are being made and 413 00:25:26,880 --> 00:25:31,440 the language that's being used and the context of as well of a, 414 00:25:31,440 --> 00:25:35,400 of a world in which strong men do whatever they want. 415 00:25:35,800 --> 00:25:38,840 And that, you know, you've got this war going on in Israel and 416 00:25:38,840 --> 00:25:44,120 Gaza in which Netanyahu does pretty much whatever he wants. 417 00:25:44,400 --> 00:25:47,840 And I, I think Modi is probably thinking there's an expectation 418 00:25:47,840 --> 00:25:51,560 on him to hit back militarily as well. 419 00:25:51,760 --> 00:25:54,480 And it's going to be quite a strong expectation. 420 00:25:54,480 --> 00:25:57,360 You know, sort of the the kinds of responses that we've seen in 421 00:25:57,360 --> 00:25:59,600 the past won't cut it with his base. 422 00:26:02,000 --> 00:26:04,000 I'll let Manoj talk about more, but I mean, I think you know, to 423 00:26:04,000 --> 00:26:05,680 me we have an interesting history. 424 00:26:05,680 --> 00:26:10,120 You have a in 2016 you had an attack that that was in Yuri 425 00:26:10,120 --> 00:26:13,360 that was that was met by what India termed by a surgical 426 00:26:13,360 --> 00:26:17,240 strike, a very limited kind of special forces into kind of raid 427 00:26:17,240 --> 00:26:18,960 just just across the border targeting. 428 00:26:18,960 --> 00:26:23,760 They say military can't. 2019, you had this other very large 429 00:26:23,760 --> 00:26:26,840 scale suicide bombing carried out by a militant group and you 430 00:26:26,840 --> 00:26:31,520 saw an Indian air strike on what it said was a a training base. 431 00:26:31,520 --> 00:26:34,800 That didn't result in any casualties as far as as far as 432 00:26:34,800 --> 00:26:37,040 we could tell. So, but it was still an 433 00:26:37,040 --> 00:26:39,040 escalation from what we saw in 2016. 434 00:26:39,200 --> 00:26:41,400 Now we're in 2025. But the international pressure 435 00:26:41,400 --> 00:26:43,720 in 20/20/19 was quite different, wasn't it? 436 00:26:43,800 --> 00:26:44,760 I. I, you know, I'm going to 437 00:26:44,760 --> 00:26:46,480 disagree with you. I, I don't think it's, I don't 438 00:26:46,480 --> 00:26:47,920 think there's been a substantial shift. 439 00:26:47,920 --> 00:26:51,800 I don't think, I don't think that that right now that, that 440 00:26:51,800 --> 00:26:57,040 there is anyone saying to, to India, go ahead and do, do 441 00:26:57,040 --> 00:27:00,440 whatever you want. Perhaps there was a perhaps at 442 00:27:00,440 --> 00:27:02,120 that time there were less distractions. 443 00:27:02,200 --> 00:27:05,040 And so I mean, the US did play something of a mediating role 444 00:27:05,040 --> 00:27:07,160 between the, the, the, the, the two sides. 445 00:27:08,120 --> 00:27:12,280 But I find it hard to believe that that the US would be kind 446 00:27:12,280 --> 00:27:16,480 of OK with a really serious, major, massive military 447 00:27:16,480 --> 00:27:20,080 escalation in South Asia, given it's already struggling to deal 448 00:27:20,080 --> 00:27:22,600 with current crises in the Middle East and in and Europe. 449 00:27:22,840 --> 00:27:25,080 And, you know, Trump doesn't want to see more wars. 450 00:27:25,080 --> 00:27:26,560 He wants to be the peacemaker, right? 451 00:27:26,560 --> 00:27:30,920 Supposedly, anyway. Minaj, you know, I really don't 452 00:27:30,920 --> 00:27:33,760 see Modi pushing for the military. 453 00:27:33,880 --> 00:27:38,480 Maybe the the Indus Waters treaty is the atom bomb in 454 00:27:38,480 --> 00:27:39,960 itself. It's a nuclear weapon. 455 00:27:40,920 --> 00:27:45,720 The consequences of the action are extremely severe, meaning 456 00:27:45,720 --> 00:27:49,560 they're probably worse than war in some ways. 457 00:27:49,920 --> 00:27:54,720 When you can, you starve A neighboring country of water. 458 00:27:55,800 --> 00:27:58,040 So it's already a pretty serious action. 459 00:27:58,480 --> 00:28:03,040 Modi has underfunded the defence establishment in India, meaning 460 00:28:03,040 --> 00:28:07,760 Indian spending as a percentage of its GDP has gone down in the 461 00:28:07,760 --> 00:28:15,400 Modi years so dramatically. So I'm not too optimistic in in 462 00:28:15,400 --> 00:28:17,320 that front. I'm saying here we have the 463 00:28:17,320 --> 00:28:21,640 Indian Air Force chief screaming about what the disastrous 464 00:28:21,640 --> 00:28:24,000 situation the Indian Air Force is in now. 465 00:28:24,000 --> 00:28:27,880 Is this going to be the instrument of of revenge? 466 00:28:29,160 --> 00:28:31,000 Certainly one thing has happened. 467 00:28:31,040 --> 00:28:34,600 The Indians are angry. They are very angry. 468 00:28:35,840 --> 00:28:42,120 And yes, you hear the screams in the TV, they want retaliation, 469 00:28:43,800 --> 00:28:48,480 But I think to my mind that retaliation has already begun, 470 00:28:48,920 --> 00:28:51,800 and I think it's much more drastic than is being made out 471 00:28:51,800 --> 00:28:52,040 to. You. 472 00:28:52,040 --> 00:28:54,680 Well, we'll leave it there. Manoj Sukhandar, thank you both 473 00:28:54,680 --> 00:28:57,520 very much indeed for joining us. That's the forecast for now. 474 00:28:57,640 --> 00:28:58,000 Bye bye.