1 00:00:00,040 --> 00:00:02,800 This fiction that Trump was somehow negotiating A ceasefire 2 00:00:02,840 --> 00:00:06,040 has never had any basis in fact. Putin has never gone along with. 3 00:00:06,040 --> 00:00:08,720 He's never given up his war aims, which are the conquest of 4 00:00:08,720 --> 00:00:12,160 all of Ukraine. And maybe Trump has realized. 5 00:00:12,160 --> 00:00:14,800 That the Russians are bit by bit, advancing. 6 00:00:14,800 --> 00:00:18,920 When President Putin finally feels that maybe it's time to 7 00:00:18,920 --> 00:00:22,640 sue the peace, he's determined to have done whatever he can to 8 00:00:22,640 --> 00:00:26,760 put the Ukrainians into an abject position where, to use a 9 00:00:26,760 --> 00:00:29,680 famous phrase from President Trump, they have none of the 10 00:00:29,680 --> 00:00:31,840 cards. If the Ukrainians now get the 11 00:00:31,840 --> 00:00:36,160 weapons to hit Moscow, to hit Saint Petersburg with, does that 12 00:00:36,160 --> 00:00:38,160 change the nature of this war fundamentally? 13 00:00:41,960 --> 00:00:43,560 Hello and welcome to the forecast. 14 00:00:43,560 --> 00:00:46,440 So is the big bromance between Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump 15 00:00:46,440 --> 00:00:49,680 now truly over? We know the president in the US 16 00:00:49,760 --> 00:00:53,000 has been rather frustrated with his Russian counterpart of 17 00:00:53,000 --> 00:00:55,520 Leighton Melania. The first lady had told them 18 00:00:55,520 --> 00:00:58,600 that they keep bombing civilian targets, as if he hadn't learned 19 00:00:58,600 --> 00:01:00,800 that already from watching the nightly news. 20 00:01:01,160 --> 00:01:04,040 Now a new weapons programme has been announced that there's a 21 00:01:04,080 --> 00:01:07,240 threat of severe sanctions, secondary sanctions against any 22 00:01:07,240 --> 00:01:11,320 country that helps Russia. And we'll have to see whether 23 00:01:11,320 --> 00:01:15,080 this is really truly a turning point in this war that seemed to 24 00:01:15,080 --> 00:01:17,520 be going in Russia's direction of late. 25 00:01:18,080 --> 00:01:20,480 With me here to discuss this is our international editor, 26 00:01:20,480 --> 00:01:24,200 Lindsay Hilsum, who's currently in the Haqib in Ukraine, and 27 00:01:24,200 --> 00:01:26,600 Anne Alpervan, the Pulitzer Prize winning author and 28 00:01:26,600 --> 00:01:28,960 journalist who is in Poland. Welcome to you both. 29 00:01:29,520 --> 00:01:32,120 So let me start with you, Anne. Obvious question today, Is the 30 00:01:32,120 --> 00:01:37,080 bromance truly over now? So unfortunately, I didn't think 31 00:01:37,080 --> 00:01:40,240 so. Trump made a big announcement 32 00:01:40,240 --> 00:01:43,840 saying that he was going to have a have lots of things to say on 33 00:01:43,840 --> 00:01:46,400 Monday. And then actually what he said 34 00:01:46,400 --> 00:01:48,280 was rather less than what was expected. 35 00:01:48,960 --> 00:01:52,440 He was expected to say that he would he would agree to sell 36 00:01:52,680 --> 00:01:55,080 weapons to NATO, which would be given to Ukraine. 37 00:01:55,080 --> 00:01:56,680 That's been in the works for a long time. 38 00:01:57,680 --> 00:02:02,240 And he but he said, well, maybe if Putin doesn't come to some 39 00:02:02,240 --> 00:02:06,040 kind of ceasefire agreement in 50 days, then maybe he'll put 40 00:02:06,040 --> 00:02:08,280 some sanctions on. And actually he was very vague 41 00:02:08,280 --> 00:02:11,840 about what that meant, whether it was tariffs or sanctions or 42 00:02:11,840 --> 00:02:15,680 something else. And meanwhile, the US has been, 43 00:02:15,960 --> 00:02:19,960 in practice, de facto lifting sanctions because sanctions are 44 00:02:19,960 --> 00:02:21,240 something that have to be renewed. 45 00:02:21,320 --> 00:02:24,200 New companies keep picking up the slack. 46 00:02:24,200 --> 00:02:27,080 And the US has actually been releasing and loosening 47 00:02:27,080 --> 00:02:29,200 sanctions on Russia over the last several months. 48 00:02:29,480 --> 00:02:32,200 So it was, it was actually fairly underwhelming, I would 49 00:02:32,200 --> 00:02:34,240 say. And Lindsay, we know from Donald 50 00:02:34,240 --> 00:02:37,400 Trump that when he comes up with anything detailed like numbers 51 00:02:37,680 --> 00:02:42,400 or days or percentages, you have to look at them with a lorry of 52 00:02:42,400 --> 00:02:45,000 salt, don't you? Absolutely. 53 00:02:45,000 --> 00:02:48,960 And here in Ukraine there is certainly enough salt for them 54 00:02:48,960 --> 00:02:51,960 to to pinch. I was out with an anti drone 55 00:02:52,440 --> 00:02:54,520 unit last night. It was very interesting. 56 00:02:54,520 --> 00:02:58,160 They have the most modern technology on their iPads for 57 00:02:58,160 --> 00:03:01,280 tracing where the drones are and their trajectory. 58 00:03:01,520 --> 00:03:04,920 But then they were bringing out this great lumbering anti 59 00:03:05,000 --> 00:03:10,280 aircraft artillery from the Soviet era to shoot them down. 60 00:03:10,520 --> 00:03:13,320 And so when I asked, you know, what about the Patriots, which 61 00:03:13,320 --> 00:03:16,160 is not really for shooting down drones, but for shooting down 62 00:03:16,160 --> 00:03:20,360 missiles, of which many are coming in every night here to 63 00:03:20,360 --> 00:03:24,400 Kharkiv, to Kiev, to a desert, to many cities, the guy I was 64 00:03:24,400 --> 00:03:26,280 with said, yeah, look, fine, great. 65 00:03:26,280 --> 00:03:29,840 But when are they going to come? We, of course, we need more help 66 00:03:29,840 --> 00:03:32,560 from the Russia, from the from the Americans. 67 00:03:32,840 --> 00:03:35,000 Of course we need this from Donald Trump. 68 00:03:35,000 --> 00:03:37,000 Yes, thank you. We want this. 69 00:03:37,000 --> 00:03:39,320 But when? Now, now, now. 70 00:03:40,760 --> 00:03:43,280 Before we get on to the kind of weapons they need and, you know, 71 00:03:43,280 --> 00:03:45,760 the nature of air defence in this, you know, very 72 00:03:45,760 --> 00:03:49,840 technological war with Jones. And it's a bit weird, isn't he, 73 00:03:49,840 --> 00:03:52,320 that it keeps mentioning the first lady, Melania's kind of 74 00:03:52,720 --> 00:03:57,120 channelling any kind of empathy. Did she change his mind about 75 00:03:57,120 --> 00:04:00,000 the nature of the targets used by the Russians? 76 00:04:00,240 --> 00:04:04,560 You know, on a nightly basis? So obviously, I have no insider 77 00:04:04,560 --> 00:04:07,800 knowledge of the president's relationship with his wife, so I 78 00:04:07,800 --> 00:04:10,360 can't really say what it was that she said. 79 00:04:10,360 --> 00:04:13,560 But actually the implication of what he said in public at least, 80 00:04:14,040 --> 00:04:17,480 was not so much that she was showing empathy, but that she 81 00:04:17,480 --> 00:04:20,040 was contradicting him. That he would come home and say, 82 00:04:20,279 --> 00:04:24,160 I just had this great phone call with my friend Vladimir, and she 83 00:04:24,160 --> 00:04:27,040 would say, yeah, and he's just bombed another city 5 minutes 84 00:04:27,040 --> 00:04:29,480 ago. And so it's more that she was 85 00:04:29,480 --> 00:04:33,240 showing up, that he was being, you know, taken for a ride by 86 00:04:33,240 --> 00:04:36,560 Putin, which has, of course, been the case for many months 87 00:04:36,560 --> 00:04:37,560 now. From the very beginning. 88 00:04:38,280 --> 00:04:39,600 Exactly. Yeah, Well, Putin, Putin has 89 00:04:39,600 --> 00:04:42,880 made clear that he that he is not ready for a ceasefire. 90 00:04:42,880 --> 00:04:45,080 He doesn't want a ceasefire. When there were talks in 91 00:04:45,080 --> 00:04:49,320 Istanbul, they sent a historian who who, who ranted about the 92 00:04:49,320 --> 00:04:52,200 history of Kiev and Russia rather than somebody who was 93 00:04:52,200 --> 00:04:55,280 prepared to actually have a have a ceasefire conversation. 94 00:04:56,000 --> 00:04:59,040 And so, you know, the idea that there would be a ceasefire or 95 00:04:59,040 --> 00:05:02,640 something that's come from Trump and some Western think tankers, 96 00:05:02,680 --> 00:05:04,280 Putin has never gone along with it. 97 00:05:04,280 --> 00:05:07,120 He's never agreed to it. He's never given up his war 98 00:05:07,120 --> 00:05:09,320 aims, which are the conquest of all of Ukraine. 99 00:05:09,720 --> 00:05:12,320 And maybe Trump has realized that. 100 00:05:12,320 --> 00:05:15,640 I mean, certainly some people around him might have done, but 101 00:05:15,640 --> 00:05:20,200 if you know, or or maybe Melania eventually convinced him, who 102 00:05:20,200 --> 00:05:21,920 knows? But can I say something which I 103 00:05:21,920 --> 00:05:26,400 think is really interesting, which is of course, Melania was 104 00:05:26,400 --> 00:05:29,240 brought up in a Warsaw Pact country, wasn't she? 105 00:05:29,640 --> 00:05:35,040 So she, her family come from Eastern Europe, so she must have 106 00:05:35,040 --> 00:05:39,120 a much greater sense of what it was like under the Soviet Union 107 00:05:39,440 --> 00:05:42,840 and what it was like with Russian domination in that time. 108 00:05:42,840 --> 00:05:46,280 So presumably she does bring a particular sensibility to to all 109 00:05:46,280 --> 00:05:48,840 of this. But I mean, Donald Trump has 110 00:05:48,840 --> 00:05:50,400 been on one hell of a journey, hasn't he? 111 00:05:50,400 --> 00:05:53,240 Since that 90 minute phone call soon after he actually took over 112 00:05:53,240 --> 00:05:56,640 power in the Oval Office when everything seemed to be hunky 113 00:05:56,640 --> 00:05:59,440 Dory. Isn't this a journey that you 114 00:05:59,480 --> 00:06:01,760 and trust? Do you think that he's actually, 115 00:06:02,000 --> 00:06:04,400 you know, got more and more fed up and, you know, has realized 116 00:06:04,400 --> 00:06:07,320 that Putin is making a fool of him, which is one thing that 117 00:06:07,320 --> 00:06:10,880 Trump really, really hates, You know, is that now the new 118 00:06:10,880 --> 00:06:14,080 reality of this relationship and can it swing back again? 119 00:06:15,480 --> 00:06:20,160 Honestly, I have very little trust or faith in this supposed 120 00:06:20,160 --> 00:06:25,280 presidential change of heart. Trump's Trump's interests in 121 00:06:25,280 --> 00:06:27,640 Russia are I, I believe, financial. 122 00:06:27,720 --> 00:06:31,240 We know that Steve Witkoff, who is his representative in Moscow, 123 00:06:31,640 --> 00:06:34,480 has been talking business deals with, with the Russians. 124 00:06:35,040 --> 00:06:37,200 We know there are connections between some of Trump's 125 00:06:37,200 --> 00:06:40,400 entourage and some of Putin's entourage along these lines. 126 00:06:41,640 --> 00:06:44,560 I, I'm, I'm not convinced that he's, he's given up. 127 00:06:45,000 --> 00:06:49,960 And remember, he has a, a whole kind of mythical fantasy idea 128 00:06:49,960 --> 00:06:52,040 about the relationship that they're friends, that they 129 00:06:52,040 --> 00:06:56,280 somehow went through a lot together, that they that they've 130 00:06:56,280 --> 00:06:59,120 exchanged many experiences and they have a lot in common. 131 00:06:59,120 --> 00:07:01,720 And of course, this is fiction. And it maybe, maybe it's the 132 00:07:01,720 --> 00:07:05,680 result of Putin, who's a, who's a trained KGB agent, KGB 133 00:07:05,680 --> 00:07:08,040 officer. Maybe it's the result of Putin's 134 00:07:08,160 --> 00:07:09,680 fantastic ability to manipulate him. 135 00:07:09,680 --> 00:07:13,320 I don't know. But but he, he has, he has this 136 00:07:13,320 --> 00:07:16,240 idea that he's been very, very reluctant to give up, even 137 00:07:16,240 --> 00:07:20,800 though, as I say, since January, the Russians have never said 138 00:07:20,840 --> 00:07:23,200 that they want a ceasefire and they have never said that they 139 00:07:23,200 --> 00:07:26,480 want to stop the war. And this fiction that that that 140 00:07:26,480 --> 00:07:29,080 we were, that Trump was somehow negotiating A ceasefire, which I 141 00:07:29,080 --> 00:07:33,760 have to say a lot of the Western press corps believed has has 142 00:07:33,760 --> 00:07:37,400 never had any basis in fact. There's this weird fantasy, 143 00:07:37,400 --> 00:07:39,720 isn't there, that all, all wishful thinking that American 144 00:07:39,720 --> 00:07:43,400 presidents have about looking into the soul of Vladimir Putin. 145 00:07:43,400 --> 00:07:47,520 George W Bush famously said so when he was president and it 146 00:07:47,520 --> 00:07:49,720 seems that they seem they keep looking at the wrong soul. 147 00:07:50,280 --> 00:07:54,760 Lindsay on on the 50 day deadline, you know, Trump's 148 00:07:54,760 --> 00:07:58,880 deadlines are famously squishy. But on the 50 day deadline that 149 00:07:58,880 --> 00:08:02,280 he's, you know, that he's laid out there for Vladimir Putin. 150 00:08:02,680 --> 00:08:05,400 I mean, 50 days when you've got these massive bomb, you know, 151 00:08:05,400 --> 00:08:08,440 barrages of Jones and missiles every night is a hell of a long 152 00:08:08,440 --> 00:08:11,240 time. Well, it certainly is if you're 153 00:08:11,240 --> 00:08:14,400 living in Kiev or if you're a soldier on the frontline. 154 00:08:14,640 --> 00:08:17,080 But I think the point is that the the Russians are now 155 00:08:17,080 --> 00:08:19,440 embarked on a major summer offensive. 156 00:08:19,680 --> 00:08:22,400 The front lines have not moved much for about a year. 157 00:08:22,400 --> 00:08:25,040 And that is because of technology, because both sides 158 00:08:25,200 --> 00:08:28,440 have these drones. And so the the battlefield is 159 00:08:28,440 --> 00:08:33,280 this wasteland with fibre optic cables draped everywhere from 160 00:08:33,280 --> 00:08:37,440 the drones and nobody can really move on either side without 161 00:08:37,440 --> 00:08:41,919 being picked off by a drone. But in this summer offensive, 162 00:08:41,919 --> 00:08:44,159 these Vladimir Putin is doing two things. 163 00:08:44,360 --> 00:08:48,280 One is this relentless bombardment of the cities and 164 00:08:48,280 --> 00:08:51,840 that is meant to SAP the will of the Ukrainian people. 165 00:08:51,840 --> 00:08:56,920 And that is why those patriot anti air defences, those which 166 00:08:56,920 --> 00:09:00,320 the which the Americans now say they're going to sell to NATO 167 00:09:00,320 --> 00:09:03,080 countries to give to Ukraine. That's why they are so 168 00:09:03,080 --> 00:09:05,160 essential. And then the other thing is the 169 00:09:05,160 --> 00:09:08,400 actual front line. And we do see now that because 170 00:09:08,400 --> 00:09:11,160 of the use of these drones, Russians are bit by bit 171 00:09:11,240 --> 00:09:15,120 advancing, finding gaps in the Ukrainian defenses. 172 00:09:15,400 --> 00:09:21,160 And so 50 days, 100 days a year, whatever it is, when President 173 00:09:21,160 --> 00:09:25,000 Putin finally feels that maybe it's time to sue the peace, he's 174 00:09:25,000 --> 00:09:27,720 determined to do it from a position of strength. 175 00:09:28,120 --> 00:09:32,360 And he is determined to have done whatever he can to put the 176 00:09:32,360 --> 00:09:36,480 Ukrainians into an abject position where they really have 177 00:09:36,480 --> 00:09:40,800 nothing to defend themselves and where, to use a famous phrase 178 00:09:40,800 --> 00:09:43,440 from President Trump, they have none of the cards. 179 00:09:44,080 --> 00:09:47,080 And Lindsay, I mean, you've spent some, you know, again some 180 00:09:47,080 --> 00:09:49,720 time now in Ukraine. Do you think that the air war 181 00:09:50,240 --> 00:09:53,120 from the Russians has worked when it comes to undermining 182 00:09:53,120 --> 00:09:54,760 morale? I'm really struck that every 183 00:09:54,760 --> 00:09:57,800 night, you know, lots and lots of people, more than ever before 184 00:09:57,800 --> 00:10:00,800 apparently, are spending a lot of time in those, you know, 185 00:10:00,920 --> 00:10:03,520 metro stations that are deep underground, especially in Kiev. 186 00:10:04,920 --> 00:10:09,560 Yes, and I went to see the ballet of Snow White underground 187 00:10:09,560 --> 00:10:12,160 under the Khaki Opera House on Sunday. 188 00:10:12,400 --> 00:10:15,400 Lots of little girls and their mothers watching absolutely 189 00:10:15,400 --> 00:10:17,680 wrapped the stage. It was extraordinary. 190 00:10:17,960 --> 00:10:21,280 But yes, there is a whole underground life, I think that 191 00:10:21,280 --> 00:10:25,160 Ukrainians are very reluctant to say to a foreigner like me that, 192 00:10:25,200 --> 00:10:26,960 you know, they have any problem with their will. 193 00:10:26,960 --> 00:10:29,320 Everybody says, no, we're going to fight and we have the 194 00:10:29,320 --> 00:10:33,520 motivation and we're developing our own technology and this is 195 00:10:33,520 --> 00:10:36,720 what we're going to do. But sure, it must be very, very 196 00:10:36,720 --> 00:10:39,680 hard and very wearing. We're talking about 3 1/2 years 197 00:10:39,680 --> 00:10:43,760 of war. And no population can endure 198 00:10:43,760 --> 00:10:46,160 something like that without having some kind of 199 00:10:46,160 --> 00:10:49,720 psychological impact. And do you think that the air 200 00:10:49,720 --> 00:10:52,760 war is now more important than the ground war? 201 00:10:52,760 --> 00:10:55,200 Because the frontline on the ground is a bit like the First 202 00:10:55,200 --> 00:10:57,720 World War frontline. It's barely advanced in in 203 00:10:57,720 --> 00:11:00,200 months if not the years. Yeah, I think it's worth 204 00:11:00,200 --> 00:11:03,320 focusing just for a second on that frontline and why the 205 00:11:03,320 --> 00:11:08,240 Russians can't move forward. The Ukrainian drone defence has 206 00:11:08,240 --> 00:11:11,520 now developed so much that essentially they can see the 207 00:11:11,520 --> 00:11:13,880 whole frontline all the time in real time. 208 00:11:13,880 --> 00:11:17,280 I've actually been in a basement outside of Kiev where you could 209 00:11:17,280 --> 00:11:20,000 see it on screen. So there was a couple 100 people 210 00:11:20,000 --> 00:11:22,880 in a room watching it. They can see everything. 211 00:11:23,240 --> 00:11:26,720 Every time the Russians try to advance or come into the, you 212 00:11:26,720 --> 00:11:29,280 know, into the, into the front line, they, they hit them. 213 00:11:29,800 --> 00:11:32,000 And the Russians, of course, are willing, as we know, to lose 214 00:11:32,000 --> 00:11:35,280 hundreds and thousands, maybe of, of people every week or 215 00:11:35,280 --> 00:11:41,080 every month in, in order to achieve really very, very small 216 00:11:41,080 --> 00:11:44,720 amounts of territory, you know, a few a kilometer here or a few 217 00:11:44,720 --> 00:11:47,280 100 yards there. I mean, it's very, it's, it's, 218 00:11:47,280 --> 00:11:49,560 it's not very much. I saw one statistic that said if 219 00:11:49,560 --> 00:11:52,400 the Russians keep going at this pace, they'll conquer all of 220 00:11:52,400 --> 00:11:55,880 Ukraine in about 85 years. So it's, you know, it's not as 221 00:11:55,880 --> 00:11:58,760 if they're doing really well. And it seems to me that the air 222 00:11:58,760 --> 00:12:02,400 war is, is a sign of their frustration. 223 00:12:02,400 --> 00:12:04,360 You know, they can't advance on the frontline. 224 00:12:04,640 --> 00:12:08,120 They can't win the war that way. And so they're trying to win it 225 00:12:08,120 --> 00:12:10,680 from the air. And that, of course, is why air 226 00:12:10,680 --> 00:12:14,160 defense is so important. And the US is still produces the 227 00:12:14,160 --> 00:12:16,680 world's best air defense and still has more of it than 228 00:12:16,680 --> 00:12:18,600 anybody else. And that that's really the main 229 00:12:18,600 --> 00:12:20,920 reason why the US is still important to Ukraine. 230 00:12:20,920 --> 00:12:24,040 Ukrainians now make all their own, most of their own drones. 231 00:12:24,040 --> 00:12:27,400 They, they have other sources of ammunition and other sources of 232 00:12:27,400 --> 00:12:30,680 weaponry, but it's just this one thing, which is air defense, 233 00:12:30,680 --> 00:12:33,280 which is, which is so, so crucial. 234 00:12:33,280 --> 00:12:35,200 So yes, you're right, the Russians are trying to win that 235 00:12:35,200 --> 00:12:37,080 way. But, you know, there isn't any 236 00:12:37,080 --> 00:12:41,400 evidence that anybody has ever won a war but through the air. 237 00:12:42,320 --> 00:12:45,240 You know, that's how the, the, you know, the, the Germans tried 238 00:12:45,240 --> 00:12:47,840 to win the war, the Battle of Britain in the air and that 239 00:12:47,840 --> 00:12:51,400 didn't succeed. And the, you know, the, the, 240 00:12:51,480 --> 00:12:54,360 the, the, the British tried to defeat Germany that way. 241 00:12:54,360 --> 00:12:55,880 And actually that is didn't succeed. 242 00:12:55,880 --> 00:12:58,080 That's not why. That's not why the Allies won 243 00:12:58,080 --> 00:13:00,880 the war. So I'm not sure that it can win. 244 00:13:00,880 --> 00:13:02,280 I mean, it can do a lot of damage. 245 00:13:02,280 --> 00:13:05,640 It can destroy people's lives. It can, you know, it can create 246 00:13:05,640 --> 00:13:09,000 a lot of trauma for later on, but it's, it isn't actually 247 00:13:09,000 --> 00:13:12,160 going to win. And at some point, yes, the 248 00:13:12,160 --> 00:13:14,840 Russians will figure that out. And it would help if we were 249 00:13:14,840 --> 00:13:17,560 able to arm Ukraine and give them the defenses they need now 250 00:13:17,840 --> 00:13:20,240 so that the Russians came to that realization sooner. 251 00:13:20,240 --> 00:13:24,520 That's really been the, you know, for the last six months. 252 00:13:24,520 --> 00:13:27,280 It's been, or really for the last three years, it's been 253 00:13:27,280 --> 00:13:29,880 clear that that is the way the war will eventually end. 254 00:13:29,880 --> 00:13:31,920 The Russians will understand that they can't win. 255 00:13:32,400 --> 00:13:33,960 And at that point, the war's over. 256 00:13:34,000 --> 00:13:36,320 And then we can discuss where the border is and we can have 257 00:13:36,320 --> 00:13:38,920 lots of other conversations. But this idea that there would 258 00:13:38,920 --> 00:13:41,680 be some kind of trade or some kind of, you know, we'll give 259 00:13:41,680 --> 00:13:43,920 you Crimea in exchange for something else, I mean, that's 260 00:13:43,920 --> 00:13:46,720 not going to happen. That's that, that was always a 261 00:13:46,720 --> 00:13:48,760 myth. The the The war will end when 262 00:13:48,760 --> 00:13:50,520 the Russians understand that they can't win. 263 00:13:51,520 --> 00:13:53,120 And Lindsay, it's a strange way, isn't it? 264 00:13:53,120 --> 00:13:55,800 Because it's both incredibly modern and technological. 265 00:13:55,960 --> 00:13:57,760 You know, you've covered that just now the, you know, the 266 00:13:57,760 --> 00:14:00,720 drone warfare that's being developed all the time and it 267 00:14:00,720 --> 00:14:02,680 really doesn't allow the soldiers to move anywhere 268 00:14:02,680 --> 00:14:05,360 without being, you know, being spotted by a German, possibly 269 00:14:05,360 --> 00:14:07,640 killed by 1. And at the same time, it's 270 00:14:07,720 --> 00:14:11,400 unbelievably old fashioned, you know, trenches, mud, boots on 271 00:14:11,400 --> 00:14:14,400 the ground and advancing a few inches on either side. 272 00:14:15,400 --> 00:14:18,360 Absolutely, though there are very few men in those trenches 273 00:14:18,360 --> 00:14:22,920 these days because of the of the drones, as as Anne was saying. 274 00:14:23,440 --> 00:14:26,440 I think that one of the things which is really interesting is 275 00:14:26,440 --> 00:14:29,920 you is because the basic problem that the Ukrainians have, it's 276 00:14:29,920 --> 00:14:31,960 just that they don't have as many soldiers. 277 00:14:31,960 --> 00:14:35,040 They're a much smaller country and the Russians fight in a 278 00:14:35,040 --> 00:14:38,640 particular way because they don't care about losing a lot of 279 00:14:38,640 --> 00:14:40,720 soldiers. Now you can say that that is a 280 00:14:40,720 --> 00:14:43,240 military culture because they're cruel and so on. 281 00:14:43,480 --> 00:14:46,360 Or you can also say because their soldiers are expendable 282 00:14:46,640 --> 00:14:49,400 from a practical point of view. And from the Ukrainian point of 283 00:14:49,400 --> 00:14:52,040 view, they're not expendable because there are so few here 284 00:14:52,240 --> 00:14:54,640 and they're very short of them. So one of the things that the 285 00:14:54,680 --> 00:14:57,840 Ukrainians are working on, and I went to one of the places where 286 00:14:57,840 --> 00:15:01,440 they're developing, these are these unmanned ground vehicles. 287 00:15:01,440 --> 00:15:05,080 So they're like drones, but they're on the ground and these 288 00:15:05,080 --> 00:15:07,200 can be used now. They're robots. 289 00:15:07,200 --> 00:15:10,720 They're they're little vehicles that can bring in ammunition to 290 00:15:10,720 --> 00:15:13,960 a frontline unit. They can bring out a casualty, 291 00:15:13,960 --> 00:15:16,400 somebody who's been injured. They can do all of the 292 00:15:16,400 --> 00:15:19,080 logistics. The Third Assault Brigade who I 293 00:15:19,080 --> 00:15:22,280 was with say that they actually took a Russian position the 294 00:15:22,280 --> 00:15:26,040 other day in entirely with unmanned vehicles both in the 295 00:15:26,040 --> 00:15:28,360 air and on the ground. So what that means is that it 296 00:15:28,360 --> 00:15:31,640 saves soldiers lives because if your soldiers are not right 297 00:15:31,640 --> 00:15:34,720 there where it's happening, but a couple of kilometers back, you 298 00:15:34,720 --> 00:15:38,640 know, using these video game console type things in order to 299 00:15:38,640 --> 00:15:41,480 work these vehicles, then you can save a lot of lives. 300 00:15:41,480 --> 00:15:44,640 So that kind of technology is really important to the 301 00:15:44,640 --> 00:15:47,040 Ukrainians. But the other thing that they 302 00:15:47,040 --> 00:15:51,080 really want are long range cruise missiles which the 303 00:15:51,080 --> 00:15:54,280 Americans could give and apparently or sell, which 304 00:15:54,280 --> 00:15:57,360 apparently they're thinking of because if they had these Jassam 305 00:15:57,360 --> 00:16:02,640 long range cruise missiles, then they can fire more and more 306 00:16:02,640 --> 00:16:05,680 effectively into Russia. And that I think is one thing 307 00:16:05,680 --> 00:16:07,760 that the Ukrainians think that they need to do. 308 00:16:07,760 --> 00:16:11,360 They need to take the war to Russia more effectively. 309 00:16:11,960 --> 00:16:14,760 But there's a story in the Financial Times actually just 310 00:16:14,760 --> 00:16:20,520 now that they had Privy to a conversation between Trump and 311 00:16:20,520 --> 00:16:25,080 Zelensky on the 4th of July of all days, where Trump then asked 312 00:16:25,080 --> 00:16:28,240 Zelensky, can you hit Moscow? Can you hit Saint Petersburg? 313 00:16:28,680 --> 00:16:31,440 And Zelensky said, yes, I can if you give me the weapons to do 314 00:16:31,440 --> 00:16:33,360 so. You know, if the war really was 315 00:16:33,360 --> 00:16:38,360 brought very closely to, you know, the not just Russians, you 316 00:16:38,360 --> 00:16:40,680 know, in outlying areas, you know, obviously they went into 317 00:16:40,680 --> 00:16:44,160 Kursk last year, but, you know, into the capital or the cultural 318 00:16:44,160 --> 00:16:47,520 capital, Saint Petersburg, that would make a big difference, 319 00:16:47,520 --> 00:16:50,160 wouldn't it? It would make a big difference. 320 00:16:50,200 --> 00:16:52,320 And I think one of the reasons that I'm told that the 321 00:16:52,320 --> 00:16:56,800 Ukrainians have been holding back on that is because they 322 00:16:56,800 --> 00:17:00,520 worry that it would anger President Trump because they 323 00:17:00,520 --> 00:17:04,240 feel that he would be, he would, you know, be annoyed if they 324 00:17:04,240 --> 00:17:06,960 were taking the war right to President Putin. 325 00:17:06,960 --> 00:17:10,000 So they have held back on that, partly because the technology 326 00:17:10,000 --> 00:17:12,000 and partly because diplomatically they think that 327 00:17:12,000 --> 00:17:13,319 that wouldn't be such a good idea. 328 00:17:13,319 --> 00:17:15,800 So we'll have to see in the coming weeks whether that 329 00:17:15,800 --> 00:17:18,560 changes. Now the President Trump seems to 330 00:17:18,560 --> 00:17:22,520 have altered his policy. And I wonder just briefly on 331 00:17:22,520 --> 00:17:25,480 this, whether this will bring back the old ogre that of 332 00:17:25,480 --> 00:17:27,960 course, has been concerning Europeans, whether, you know, 333 00:17:27,960 --> 00:17:30,520 pushing Putin into a corner like that by bringing the war much 334 00:17:30,520 --> 00:17:32,840 closer to the the people of Moscow, St. 335 00:17:32,840 --> 00:17:37,240 Petersburg would actually, you know, escalate it to another 336 00:17:37,240 --> 00:17:38,560 level. Because, of course, the Russians 337 00:17:38,760 --> 00:17:40,920 even today are threatening that this could become a nuclear 338 00:17:40,920 --> 00:17:43,480 conflict. I think I'm hearing far less of 339 00:17:43,480 --> 00:17:46,840 that now than I was. The German government is much 340 00:17:46,840 --> 00:17:51,320 more is much more belligerent on the part of Ukraine, the current 341 00:17:51,600 --> 00:17:55,960 Mertz as opposed to Schultz and I think Mark Rousser, the the 342 00:17:55,960 --> 00:17:58,160 head of NATO is much more hawkish. 343 00:17:58,160 --> 00:18:00,760 So I think there's much less talk of that in European 344 00:18:00,760 --> 00:18:03,280 capitals now than there was six months or a year ago. 345 00:18:04,000 --> 00:18:07,760 If the Ukrainians now get the weapons to hit Moscow, to hit 346 00:18:07,760 --> 00:18:11,480 Saint Petersburg with, you know, and if there is a temptation for 347 00:18:11,480 --> 00:18:14,680 them to hit civilian targets, which is something that I know 348 00:18:14,680 --> 00:18:17,520 the Biden administration was always worried about, does that 349 00:18:17,520 --> 00:18:19,600 change the nature of this war fundamentally? 350 00:18:20,520 --> 00:18:22,760 I'm not sure it changes it fundamentally because the 351 00:18:22,760 --> 00:18:25,640 Ukrainians have been hitting targets very deep inside Russia 352 00:18:25,640 --> 00:18:30,520 for a long time, including using a, a very, a kind of Trojan 353 00:18:30,520 --> 00:18:35,680 horse drone technique to smuggle drones inside to the country and 354 00:18:35,680 --> 00:18:40,240 to hit aircraft at A at an airport quite far away from 355 00:18:40,240 --> 00:18:43,000 Ukraine. So I'm not, I'm not 100% sure it 356 00:18:43,000 --> 00:18:46,440 would make a difference. I mean, there might be a an 357 00:18:46,440 --> 00:18:50,840 interesting diplomatic situation if it were to be US weapons with 358 00:18:50,840 --> 00:18:54,400 which the Ukrainians were hitting important sites in 359 00:18:54,400 --> 00:18:56,880 central Russia or or indeed in Moscow. 360 00:18:57,240 --> 00:19:00,400 And that would then create a brand new situation between 361 00:19:00,400 --> 00:19:03,640 Russia and the United States. I'm not sure that it changes the 362 00:19:03,640 --> 00:19:05,520 war that much. I mean, the Russians have known 363 00:19:05,520 --> 00:19:08,520 for a long time that the Ukrainians can hit targets in 364 00:19:08,520 --> 00:19:11,240 Russia and, and the Ukrainians hit them all the time, actually. 365 00:19:11,240 --> 00:19:12,960 I mean, it's not always reported. 366 00:19:12,960 --> 00:19:15,280 It's, we've become so used to it that it's not in the news. 367 00:19:15,280 --> 00:19:18,360 But I mean, almost every week the Ukrainians hit a factory or 368 00:19:18,360 --> 00:19:21,000 they hit a, some kind of production site or some kind of 369 00:19:21,000 --> 00:19:23,440 military installation. So it doesn't, it doesn't 370 00:19:23,440 --> 00:19:26,200 necessarily change the, the, the fighting. 371 00:19:26,200 --> 00:19:29,160 But yes, it would create that. That would then be a new 372 00:19:29,160 --> 00:19:32,520 situation between Trump and Putin, one that would that would 373 00:19:32,520 --> 00:19:34,880 be much more fundamental change than what we've seen so far. 374 00:19:35,480 --> 00:19:38,200 I mean, because even today we heard very spokesman for the 375 00:19:38,200 --> 00:19:41,680 Kremlin speaking on behalf of the Kremlin, one assumes saying, 376 00:19:41,680 --> 00:19:43,800 you know, now that Trump has said he's going to supply these 377 00:19:43,800 --> 00:19:47,040 weapons and plus the sanctions that this is going to raise the 378 00:19:47,040 --> 00:19:49,360 nuclear question one again, you're effectively, we are 379 00:19:49,360 --> 00:19:52,440 effectively at war with NATO and we've heard this talk ever since 380 00:19:52,440 --> 00:19:55,240 the war started in February of 2022. 381 00:19:55,240 --> 00:19:58,800 But do we need to take that? Do European capitals need to 382 00:19:58,800 --> 00:20:02,520 take that talk more seriously now, if indeed these long range 383 00:20:02,520 --> 00:20:05,160 weapons are supplied? I really don't think so. 384 00:20:05,160 --> 00:20:07,720 I mean, I don't want to be too definitive because you never 385 00:20:07,720 --> 00:20:09,520 know. And within the case of Putin, 386 00:20:09,520 --> 00:20:13,880 you're dealing with someone who's unpredictable and paranoid 387 00:20:13,920 --> 00:20:17,440 and has all kinds of complexes about his role in history and so 388 00:20:17,440 --> 00:20:20,440 on. From everything we know, we know 389 00:20:20,440 --> 00:20:23,840 that his his Chinese allies put a lot of pressure on him not to 390 00:20:23,840 --> 00:20:28,400 use nuclear weapons. The Indian leadership have also 391 00:20:28,400 --> 00:20:30,600 made it clear they don't want him to use nuclear weapons and 392 00:20:30,600 --> 00:20:33,840 they're important customers of of Russian oil. 393 00:20:34,400 --> 00:20:38,680 We know that the, the, it would be actually very difficult for 394 00:20:38,680 --> 00:20:42,000 them to use tactical weapons in Ukraine because of the closeness 395 00:20:42,000 --> 00:20:44,920 of the two armies of the, the, there would inevitably be 396 00:20:44,920 --> 00:20:48,560 blowback into Russia. And it's, it's hard to see how 397 00:20:48,560 --> 00:20:50,440 they could use them in a way that would help them win the 398 00:20:50,440 --> 00:20:53,200 war. So I, I, I don't think so. 399 00:20:53,200 --> 00:20:57,360 And it's also true that Putin has used this language of, you 400 00:20:57,360 --> 00:21:00,320 know, this nuclear threat language whenever he believes 401 00:21:00,320 --> 00:21:03,280 that the US is entering the conflict in any kind of way. 402 00:21:03,600 --> 00:21:07,480 And it's so far been successful at keeping the US out or the US 403 00:21:07,480 --> 00:21:10,360 restrained. And, and so I, I, I think it's 404 00:21:10,360 --> 00:21:12,680 makes much more sense at this point to see it as a tactic 405 00:21:12,680 --> 00:21:14,840 rather than, rather than a real threat. 406 00:21:14,840 --> 00:21:17,800 And, and also, you know, how many times can you threaten 407 00:21:17,800 --> 00:21:19,800 something before people start to not believe you? 408 00:21:19,800 --> 00:21:24,200 He's he, he actually has been talking repeatedly about using 409 00:21:24,200 --> 00:21:27,920 nukes in, in, against Poland, against the UK, you know, 410 00:21:27,920 --> 00:21:30,160 against Scandinavia for years now. 411 00:21:30,560 --> 00:21:33,800 You know, we just, we all kind of choose not to hear it, but 412 00:21:33,840 --> 00:21:37,040 but it's, it really isn't new. And it's part of their talk. 413 00:21:37,040 --> 00:21:39,160 It's part of how they speak about the outside world. 414 00:21:39,480 --> 00:21:43,320 And so and and so, I'm not sure it represents some big change at 415 00:21:43,320 --> 00:21:46,120 this point. It's very hard for any of us who 416 00:21:46,120 --> 00:21:48,640 haven't been to Russia for some time and we haven't been given 417 00:21:48,640 --> 00:21:51,880 visas for years now to, to really know what's going on on 418 00:21:51,880 --> 00:21:54,160 the ground, what ordinary Russians think and actually what 419 00:21:54,160 --> 00:21:58,000 people even close to the regime think the war aims are. 420 00:21:58,280 --> 00:22:02,680 But Lindsay, first you, what do you think Russians feel that 421 00:22:02,680 --> 00:22:04,400 they're fighting for in this war? 422 00:22:04,840 --> 00:22:07,760 And and if you're in Sabinas war, can you just, you know, 423 00:22:07,760 --> 00:22:11,360 carry on regardless because life seems to be still pretty 424 00:22:11,360 --> 00:22:13,960 pleasant in those cities compared to what Ukrainians are 425 00:22:13,960 --> 00:22:16,360 having to put up with. Look, when you talk to Ukrainian 426 00:22:16,360 --> 00:22:20,400 soldiers, they, their line is the Russians are fighting for 427 00:22:20,400 --> 00:22:22,240 money and we're fighting for freedom. 428 00:22:22,760 --> 00:22:25,400 I'm not sure that it is quite as simple as that. 429 00:22:25,400 --> 00:22:28,000 Now, obviously, the Russians have brought in the North 430 00:22:28,000 --> 00:22:31,440 Koreans and we're expecting more North Korean fighters in the 431 00:22:31,440 --> 00:22:35,280 next couple of months, another 25 or 30,000 apparently. 432 00:22:35,480 --> 00:22:38,080 So they, they need those extra, extra men. 433 00:22:38,480 --> 00:22:41,720 But I think, you know, from everything I read, this idea, 434 00:22:41,720 --> 00:22:45,280 which is the fundamental issue of this war, that President 435 00:22:45,280 --> 00:22:48,920 Putin says that Ukraine is not a country, that Ukraine is not a 436 00:22:48,920 --> 00:22:51,480 place that exists, that Ukraine is somewhere that should be 437 00:22:51,480 --> 00:22:56,520 under the control of Russia. A lot of Russians, as far as I 438 00:22:56,520 --> 00:23:01,240 know, have bought into that idea and would know much more than me 439 00:23:01,240 --> 00:23:03,720 about that. The propaganda, as we know, is 440 00:23:03,720 --> 00:23:07,480 very strong. And it seems to be almost and at 441 00:23:07,480 --> 00:23:09,560 the moment, and of course the mood changes depending on the 442 00:23:09,560 --> 00:23:11,040 amount of weapons being deployed. 443 00:23:11,040 --> 00:23:13,720 And, you know, you know, how the air war is going, but it seems 444 00:23:13,720 --> 00:23:18,200 at the moment as if Vladimir Putin's aim of subjugating 445 00:23:18,520 --> 00:23:22,120 Ukraine, making it, you know, it's ceasing to exist as an 446 00:23:22,120 --> 00:23:26,600 independent sovereign nation state that's quite far from 447 00:23:26,600 --> 00:23:30,160 reality at the moment. And then what the Ukraine's 448 00:23:30,160 --> 00:23:32,320 might end up with is something that's, you know, quite a bit 449 00:23:32,320 --> 00:23:35,920 smaller than what they had, you know, in, you know, I don't 450 00:23:36,040 --> 00:23:41,040 know, in 2010, but but independent, democratic, yes, 451 00:23:41,680 --> 00:23:44,160 sovereign and able to defend itself. 452 00:23:44,520 --> 00:23:46,960 Well, we'll see. I mean, I, I think Putin's aim 453 00:23:46,960 --> 00:23:49,800 is to, is to change the government of Ukraine and to 454 00:23:49,800 --> 00:23:52,880 make, to put in some kind of pro Russian government. 455 00:23:52,880 --> 00:23:55,840 So, I mean, it may, it may be that he hopes to achieve the 456 00:23:55,840 --> 00:23:57,880 subjugation of Ukraine, not through conquering the whole 457 00:23:57,880 --> 00:24:00,440 country, which you're right, that seems pretty unlikely. 458 00:24:00,440 --> 00:24:04,160 It's hard to see how that would happen given the given, given 459 00:24:04,160 --> 00:24:05,720 the way the way this war is going. 460 00:24:06,320 --> 00:24:08,960 But they do hope, I think, to use some kind of political 461 00:24:08,960 --> 00:24:12,320 manipulation or propaganda to achieve that kind of aim. 462 00:24:12,320 --> 00:24:14,560 And I think they originally hoped that Trump would help them 463 00:24:14,560 --> 00:24:17,080 with that, too. I mean, I think Trump's attacks 464 00:24:17,080 --> 00:24:19,960 on Zelensky and his language about, you know, we need 465 00:24:19,960 --> 00:24:22,160 election in Ukraine. You remember that back from kind 466 00:24:22,160 --> 00:24:24,600 of February, March. I mean, I think all that was 467 00:24:24,600 --> 00:24:26,360 coming from Putin. He was hearing that in his 468 00:24:26,360 --> 00:24:29,560 conversations with Putin. And I think they they hope that 469 00:24:29,560 --> 00:24:31,560 that might work. But but you're right, it seems 470 00:24:31,880 --> 00:24:34,720 right now as if they didn't. I mean, I would make one little 471 00:24:34,720 --> 00:24:37,040 corrective, just a little comment to what Lindsay just 472 00:24:37,040 --> 00:24:40,640 said about, about the Russians if Putin were to declare 473 00:24:40,640 --> 00:24:44,680 tomorrow that the war is over and we won or, you know, the war 474 00:24:44,680 --> 00:24:47,080 is over and, you know, it's, we're, we're doing something 475 00:24:47,080 --> 00:24:49,480 else now. I, I, I actually do think the 476 00:24:49,480 --> 00:24:52,680 Russians would be OK with that. I mean the, you know, remember 477 00:24:52,680 --> 00:24:55,600 that we're now dealing with a country that doesn't really have 478 00:24:56,080 --> 00:24:58,360 anything that you could call a public sphere. 479 00:24:58,360 --> 00:25:00,520 There's no independent conversation. 480 00:25:00,840 --> 00:25:03,720 There are no debates about what should happen that are that are 481 00:25:03,720 --> 00:25:05,840 real and not staged or manipulated. 482 00:25:06,440 --> 00:25:10,720 People will say to a pollster or to an interviewer, whatever is 483 00:25:10,720 --> 00:25:13,680 the line of the of this, of the government of the state, you 484 00:25:13,680 --> 00:25:17,760 know, so, so you can't really what people say to on TV or what 485 00:25:17,760 --> 00:25:21,480 they say to Steve Rosenberg of the BBC or whoever. 486 00:25:21,800 --> 00:25:24,040 I'm not sure that represents any deep feelings. 487 00:25:24,280 --> 00:25:28,360 And I think if the line were to change from above, then I think 488 00:25:28,440 --> 00:25:29,920 probably the Russians would accept it. 489 00:25:29,920 --> 00:25:32,080 I mean, there may be people in the inner circle who would be 490 00:25:32,080 --> 00:25:34,600 angry. But, but I'm not sure about 491 00:25:34,600 --> 00:25:36,360 ordinary Russians. I I'm not sure that they're 492 00:25:36,360 --> 00:25:39,960 really a a factor here in the way that we imagine them to be a 493 00:25:39,960 --> 00:25:42,440 factor. And Anne, it's not a war, it's a 494 00:25:42,440 --> 00:25:44,440 special military operation, right? 495 00:25:44,440 --> 00:25:45,720 So it's a different kind of thing. 496 00:25:45,760 --> 00:25:49,520 So so maybe that maybe that sort of obfuscation will, you know, 497 00:25:49,520 --> 00:25:52,840 make it easier for him to kind of call it quits or maybe that's 498 00:25:52,840 --> 00:25:55,480 also the reason why people haven't been fully engaged in 499 00:25:55,480 --> 00:25:57,120 it. Lindsay, I mean, you know, our 500 00:25:57,120 --> 00:25:59,640 own Prime Minister here, Sir Keir Starmer has been, you know, 501 00:25:59,640 --> 00:26:04,160 saying, you know, to the public, you know, we need to be ready 502 00:26:04,320 --> 00:26:06,360 for any eventuality with the Russians. 503 00:26:06,360 --> 00:26:09,200 We're in a pre war setting. You know, some senior generals 504 00:26:09,200 --> 00:26:11,120 here in Britain were talking about we're already in World War 505 00:26:11,120 --> 00:26:14,920 Three in the foothills of it. This is used to justify, you 506 00:26:14,920 --> 00:26:17,800 know, massively increased defense spending at the expense 507 00:26:17,800 --> 00:26:20,960 of, you know, social programs, benefits, all that kind of 508 00:26:20,960 --> 00:26:23,800 stuff. If the Russians don't actually, 509 00:26:23,800 --> 00:26:26,480 you know, if that threat doesn't come true either by them trying 510 00:26:26,480 --> 00:26:30,400 to nibble away at Poland or the Baltic republics, it's kind of 511 00:26:30,400 --> 00:26:34,440 difficult to maintain that degree of threat awareness and 512 00:26:34,440 --> 00:26:38,880 sacrifice for quite a long time, Especially with, you know, the 513 00:26:38,880 --> 00:26:41,520 new generation people like my kids who are literally who 514 00:26:41,520 --> 00:26:44,800 couldn't can't imagine anything like that ever happening in 515 00:26:44,800 --> 00:26:47,720 their lives. Yeah, but it's more complicated 516 00:26:47,720 --> 00:26:49,520 than that, isn't it? Because warfare now is 517 00:26:49,520 --> 00:26:52,000 asymmetric warfare and grey zone warfare. 518 00:26:52,240 --> 00:26:55,120 It's already happening. We've already got, you know, 519 00:26:56,000 --> 00:27:00,440 warehouses being blown up in the UK, which, according to a case 520 00:27:00,440 --> 00:27:04,240 last week, the people who carried this out were saboteurs 521 00:27:04,240 --> 00:27:06,000 who were employed by the Russians. 522 00:27:06,240 --> 00:27:09,480 We already have, you know, submarines around British 523 00:27:09,680 --> 00:27:12,480 waters. We already have them cutting 524 00:27:12,480 --> 00:27:15,520 cables. All of this kind of grey zone 525 00:27:15,520 --> 00:27:18,960 warfare is already happening. Now the idea that they're going 526 00:27:18,960 --> 00:27:22,960 to start launching ballistic missiles at the UK, well, one 527 00:27:22,960 --> 00:27:26,640 has to hope that they're not since British air defences are 528 00:27:26,640 --> 00:27:29,960 not in as good a state even as the Ukrainians, from what I 529 00:27:29,960 --> 00:27:33,480 understand. But certainly I, I think that 530 00:27:33,480 --> 00:27:36,280 what's key is if you transfer it from the Ukrainian experience, 531 00:27:36,480 --> 00:27:39,840 President Trump seems to think this is about real estate. 532 00:27:39,840 --> 00:27:42,640 It's not about real estate. It's about sovereignty. 533 00:27:43,200 --> 00:27:45,280 It's about the government of Ukraine. 534 00:27:45,280 --> 00:27:48,080 It's about Ukrainians having the right to choose their own 535 00:27:48,080 --> 00:27:49,680 governments and their own system. 536 00:27:50,160 --> 00:27:53,280 Yeah. And then and that transfers out. 537 00:27:53,480 --> 00:27:56,320 So I don't think anybody is thinking that, you know, 538 00:27:57,160 --> 00:28:00,920 President Putin is going to wake up one day and fire a ballistic 539 00:28:00,920 --> 00:28:03,640 missile into Poland where Anne is right now. 540 00:28:04,040 --> 00:28:07,880 It's much more that kind of asymmetric warfare and bits of 541 00:28:07,880 --> 00:28:10,880 sabotage and so on, which could go on in the Baltic States and 542 00:28:10,880 --> 00:28:12,480 so on. And that's much more of a 543 00:28:12,480 --> 00:28:15,400 challenge to NATO because at what point do you say this 544 00:28:15,400 --> 00:28:18,400 really is warfare? And at what point do you say, 545 00:28:18,600 --> 00:28:22,440 well, this is just a bit of, you know, criminality and, and 546 00:28:22,440 --> 00:28:24,760 sabotage? It's it's extremely difficult. 547 00:28:25,080 --> 00:28:28,080 And just on the question of what you, Ukraine might, you know, 548 00:28:28,080 --> 00:28:30,800 regard as victory at the end of this, I mean, part of that is 549 00:28:30,800 --> 00:28:33,560 just surviving and not being completely rolled over by the 550 00:28:33,560 --> 00:28:35,400 Russians. But the other price that was 551 00:28:35,560 --> 00:28:39,000 that was always held out to them by Brussels was membership of 552 00:28:39,000 --> 00:28:41,800 the EU if, especially if they can't get NATO membership, 553 00:28:42,920 --> 00:28:44,760 especially in Poland, where there's a very strong 554 00:28:44,760 --> 00:28:47,280 agricultural lobby that doesn't like the idea of the 555 00:28:47,280 --> 00:28:51,160 agricultural superpower Ukraine kind of depressing prices and 556 00:28:51,160 --> 00:28:53,800 and undercutting their markets. What's the feeling in Poland 557 00:28:53,800 --> 00:28:57,000 like about Ukraine becoming a member of the EU at the end of 558 00:28:57,000 --> 00:29:00,120 this process? I mean, we had, there hasn't 559 00:29:00,120 --> 00:29:02,800 really been a serious debate about it yet, believe it or not. 560 00:29:02,800 --> 00:29:05,360 I mean, it's still, it's still feels here far away. 561 00:29:06,320 --> 00:29:10,200 My, my guess is that you, that Ukraine will be a member of the 562 00:29:10,200 --> 00:29:12,800 EU. It won't probably be as fast as, 563 00:29:13,160 --> 00:29:17,400 as the Ukrainians hope, but there will be a way to negotiate 564 00:29:17,600 --> 00:29:22,640 a, you know, a, a, you know, a syncopated or a drawn out access 565 00:29:22,640 --> 00:29:25,400 to the agricultural markets as there has been with accession of 566 00:29:25,400 --> 00:29:28,440 other, other states. I mean, the, just, just the, 567 00:29:28,480 --> 00:29:32,360 the, the strength of Ukraine and the industrial possibilities of 568 00:29:32,360 --> 00:29:36,240 Ukraine and the high level of technology that there's going to 569 00:29:36,240 --> 00:29:39,480 be in Ukraine at the end of this war are going to be an enormous 570 00:29:39,480 --> 00:29:41,400 advantage to Europe. And actually, I would say this 571 00:29:41,400 --> 00:29:45,320 is a part of the answer to the point that you made a, a moment 572 00:29:45,320 --> 00:29:48,320 ago about the UK not being ready for it or not wanting to spend 573 00:29:48,320 --> 00:29:50,000 the money. I mean, there is a, there is a 574 00:29:50,000 --> 00:29:54,400 technological leap that is happening in Ukraine and the UK 575 00:29:54,680 --> 00:29:56,240 definitely wants to be part of that. 576 00:29:56,280 --> 00:29:59,800 And actually, far as I know, British soldiers and British 577 00:29:59,800 --> 00:30:03,880 observers are on the ground in Ukraine all the time looking at 578 00:30:03,880 --> 00:30:06,160 it and trying to understand it. And, you know, the UK should be 579 00:30:06,160 --> 00:30:11,240 so lucky that that technology transfer happens and, and the, 580 00:30:11,280 --> 00:30:13,240 and the UK is able to take advantage of it. 581 00:30:13,520 --> 00:30:17,040 So, so it's, it's, it's, it's definitely not, it's not, it's 582 00:30:17,040 --> 00:30:19,520 not that it's not one sided. You know, there are there are 583 00:30:19,520 --> 00:30:22,720 advantages that Ukraine brings to Europe and to Britain as 584 00:30:22,720 --> 00:30:23,960 well. That brings us back to the 585 00:30:23,960 --> 00:30:25,520 technology because Anne's completely right. 586 00:30:25,800 --> 00:30:28,760 I mean, I've come across UK companies and people from UK 587 00:30:28,760 --> 00:30:31,560 companies who are here working with Ukrainian companies, 588 00:30:31,560 --> 00:30:33,920 particularly on drone technology, but other 589 00:30:34,080 --> 00:30:36,800 battlefield technology as well. Because the point is that the 590 00:30:36,800 --> 00:30:40,240 Ukraine, let's say you have a new kind of drone, well, in this 591 00:30:40,240 --> 00:30:44,240 country, you develop it, your prototype in your factory in 592 00:30:44,240 --> 00:30:46,480 maybe here in Khaki, maybe in Kiev, wherever. 593 00:30:46,760 --> 00:30:49,040 And then you go to the front line and you test it 594 00:30:49,040 --> 00:30:52,000 immediately. And within 10 days, you can turn 595 00:30:52,000 --> 00:30:54,400 a prototype into something that actually works. 596 00:30:54,640 --> 00:30:57,360 And because that's how long it takes to battlefield test 597 00:30:57,360 --> 00:31:01,400 something, this would take years in the UK or in any other 598 00:31:01,400 --> 00:31:04,840 European country or in America. And so there's no question that 599 00:31:04,840 --> 00:31:08,520 at the end of this war, Ukraine will be the defence powerhouse 600 00:31:08,520 --> 00:31:12,760 of Europe, for better or for worse, rightly or wrongly, 601 00:31:12,760 --> 00:31:14,560 depending on people's views of this. 602 00:31:14,800 --> 00:31:18,680 But in it is leading the way in certain kinds of battlefield 603 00:31:18,680 --> 00:31:20,720 technology. And it is changing warfare 604 00:31:20,720 --> 00:31:22,640 forever. And definitely I think that the 605 00:31:22,680 --> 00:31:25,920 European countries, including Britain, already understand that 606 00:31:26,160 --> 00:31:28,760 and are coming in. But the Ukrainians I speak to 607 00:31:28,760 --> 00:31:32,360 say, I basically say, oh, you guys are so slow, you're so 608 00:31:32,360 --> 00:31:34,040 slow. Eventually we'll teach you, 609 00:31:34,040 --> 00:31:37,600 we'll help you, you come along and you have things that we can 610 00:31:37,600 --> 00:31:40,800 learn as well in terms of, you know, your in terms of 611 00:31:40,800 --> 00:31:43,120 technology. But we are the ones who are 612 00:31:43,120 --> 00:31:46,160 testing things out. And in that sense, you are the 613 00:31:46,160 --> 00:31:49,160 ones who are learning from us. And who knows, Lindsay, because, 614 00:31:49,160 --> 00:31:52,040 you know, by the time, I mean, you know, this war comes to some 615 00:31:52,040 --> 00:31:56,080 kind of conclusion, Ukraine will be such a defence powerhouse in 616 00:31:56,080 --> 00:31:59,320 Europe, maybe NATO will change its mind, you know, and maybe 617 00:31:59,320 --> 00:32:02,360 the Russians both be in a position to object about having 618 00:32:02,360 --> 00:32:05,320 it even as a member of NATO. Final question to both of you. 619 00:32:05,720 --> 00:32:08,520 I mean, it's, you know, in when we're deep in the weeds about 620 00:32:08,520 --> 00:32:11,000 this and we discuss the diplomacy and, you know, 621 00:32:11,000 --> 00:32:14,200 whether, you know, what Melania was whispering into Trump's ear 622 00:32:14,200 --> 00:32:18,240 and so on. It's really easy to forget which 623 00:32:18,240 --> 00:32:20,520 one shouldn't that this has been going on for a hell of a long 624 00:32:20,520 --> 00:32:24,600 time, 3 1/2 years, that maybe a million people have been killed, 625 00:32:24,600 --> 00:32:27,280 soldiers have been killed or maimed on the Russian side, God 626 00:32:27,280 --> 00:32:28,800 knows how many on the Ukrainian side. 627 00:32:29,040 --> 00:32:33,240 I mean, this is a colossal, colossal conflict for Russia. 628 00:32:33,680 --> 00:32:37,960 It is hard not to see that it will reach some degree of 629 00:32:37,960 --> 00:32:41,360 exhaustion, you know, on the Russian side, especially 630 00:32:41,400 --> 00:32:45,440 sometime this year, especially, you know, if Trump is as good as 631 00:32:45,440 --> 00:32:47,360 his word and these new weapons keep coming in. 632 00:32:47,600 --> 00:32:50,680 But maybe not. So finally, first to you, then, 633 00:32:50,680 --> 00:32:54,080 then Lindsay, what's your feeling, your gut feeling about 634 00:32:54,080 --> 00:32:57,720 how long this, this wretched thing will carry on for? 635 00:32:58,560 --> 00:33:04,320 I mean, you know, it's a colonial war and the as like all 636 00:33:04,320 --> 00:33:07,160 other colonial wars like France and Algeria, you know, or the 637 00:33:07,160 --> 00:33:11,160 British and India, it will end when the capital, the imperial 638 00:33:11,160 --> 00:33:13,880 capital is exhausted and doesn't see the point anymore. 639 00:33:14,120 --> 00:33:16,960 So you're right about that. And whether that that happens 640 00:33:16,960 --> 00:33:19,560 this year or next year or the year after, I don't know, but it 641 00:33:19,560 --> 00:33:21,800 will happen. Lindsay. 642 00:33:23,160 --> 00:33:26,760 When I talk to Ukrainians about this, and I've been talking to 643 00:33:26,920 --> 00:33:30,080 defence entrepreneurs and soldiers, they're expecting to 644 00:33:30,080 --> 00:33:32,400 have to fight for at least another year. 645 00:33:32,760 --> 00:33:36,360 They can see no way that this comes to an end in the near 646 00:33:36,360 --> 00:33:39,040 term. They're hoping they can hold on 647 00:33:39,360 --> 00:33:42,560 and that when there is some kind of settlement that they have 648 00:33:42,560 --> 00:33:46,000 been holding the line well enough that they can negotiate 649 00:33:46,000 --> 00:33:49,320 from a position of strength and that Ukraine will retain its 650 00:33:49,320 --> 00:33:51,240 sovereignty. That is what's important to 651 00:33:51,240 --> 00:33:52,520 them. OK. 652 00:33:52,520 --> 00:33:54,920 Well, thank you very much to both of you for your time. 653 00:33:55,320 --> 00:33:58,680 Lindsay Hilsum and Hakib and Abu Bam and Poland, thanks so much 654 00:33:58,680 --> 00:33:59,680 for joining us. That's it. 655 00:33:59,680 --> 00:34:01,560 That's been this edition of the Forecast. 656 00:34:01,560 --> 00:34:03,280 I hope you enjoyed it. See you next time.