1 00:00:00,040 --> 00:00:05,400 The way she's being described is as if she is the most mendacious 2 00:00:05,560 --> 00:00:07,840 politician this parliament has ever seen. 3 00:00:07,840 --> 00:00:10,480 There's a real danger that today is the moment that the wheels 4 00:00:10,480 --> 00:00:11,880 have come off this administration. 5 00:00:11,880 --> 00:00:14,400 Does he know what his mission is? 6 00:00:14,480 --> 00:00:17,160 What he's here for? If this government does fail, 7 00:00:17,760 --> 00:00:21,080 it's not going to be replaced by some moderate Conservative 8 00:00:21,080 --> 00:00:23,440 government. If this government fails, it 9 00:00:23,440 --> 00:00:26,760 will be replaced by a populist far right government. 10 00:00:29,880 --> 00:00:31,600 Hello and welcome to the Forecast. 11 00:00:31,640 --> 00:00:34,640 Angela Rayner is out, brought down by her failure to pay 12 00:00:34,640 --> 00:00:38,240 enough tax on a new flat and the failure to seek out the expert 13 00:00:38,240 --> 00:00:40,080 tax advice that would have pointed it out. 14 00:00:40,440 --> 00:00:43,400 The prime minister's ethics adviser, Sir Laurie Magnus, said 15 00:00:43,400 --> 00:00:46,800 Rayner had acted with integrity but concluded that she had still 16 00:00:46,800 --> 00:00:50,240 breached the ministerial code. But out of adversity comes 17 00:00:50,240 --> 00:00:53,400 opportunity, as they say, and certainly Keir Starmer hasn't 18 00:00:53,400 --> 00:00:56,560 wasted a moment after the departure of his deputy. 19 00:00:56,840 --> 00:00:59,760 His dramatic government reset has seen some of the biggest 20 00:00:59,760 --> 00:01:02,120 figures in his cabinet sacked or reshuffled. 21 00:01:02,440 --> 00:01:06,240 David Lanny replaces Rayner as Deputy Prime Minister but loses 22 00:01:06,240 --> 00:01:09,000 the prestigious foreign secretary, posting to Yvette 23 00:01:09,000 --> 00:01:10,920 Cooper. She's replaced at the Home 24 00:01:10,920 --> 00:01:15,200 Office by Shabana Mahmood and Lanny gets her job at Justice to 25 00:01:15,200 --> 00:01:17,440 close that circle. And there are lots of other 26 00:01:17,440 --> 00:01:19,680 moves in the middle management ranks. 27 00:01:19,840 --> 00:01:22,880 So is Starmer really the night with the long knives? 28 00:01:23,040 --> 00:01:26,200 And can it get his government back on track and stop Labour 29 00:01:26,200 --> 00:01:29,880 hemorraging votes to reform with me here in Westminster? 30 00:01:29,880 --> 00:01:33,120 Tom Baldwin, a former director of communications, called Labour 31 00:01:33,120 --> 00:01:36,240 and Keir Starmer's biographer. So Craig Oliver was at the heart 32 00:01:36,240 --> 00:01:38,920 of David Cameron's Downing St. operation and the Guardian 33 00:01:38,920 --> 00:01:41,880 columnist Zoe Williams as well. Now obviously there's a lot to 34 00:01:41,880 --> 00:01:44,560 talk about in terms of the future government direction with 35 00:01:44,560 --> 00:01:47,680 this reshuffle, but we've got to start with the disaster of 36 00:01:47,680 --> 00:01:50,200 Angela Rayner's loss. It's a huge blow, isn't? 37 00:01:50,640 --> 00:01:53,360 It she and Keir Starmer have had their ups and downs over the 38 00:01:53,360 --> 00:01:57,560 years, but I think he's genuinely regretful that she's 39 00:01:57,560 --> 00:02:00,360 now leaving his government because she's a massive asset. 40 00:02:00,400 --> 00:02:02,640 I mean, we talk about politicians being out of touch 41 00:02:02,640 --> 00:02:05,240 or not having that sort of feel for what's really going on in 42 00:02:05,240 --> 00:02:08,080 the country. Very few people in politics have 43 00:02:08,160 --> 00:02:13,840 ever brought her life experience to these seat of power like she 44 00:02:13,840 --> 00:02:15,360 has. I mean, you know, she she left 45 00:02:15,360 --> 00:02:18,200 school at 16 pregnant when she talked about grooming and she 46 00:02:18,200 --> 00:02:20,480 said that could have been me because she was leaving 47 00:02:20,480 --> 00:02:22,520 nightclubs and getting the cars with the wrong men. 48 00:02:22,840 --> 00:02:26,080 You know, when she talks about care leavers becoming being 49 00:02:26,080 --> 00:02:29,160 deemed intentionally homeless, rules that she changed because 50 00:02:29,160 --> 00:02:33,840 that could have been her, that that direct life experience is 51 00:02:33,840 --> 00:02:36,360 really unusual in politics. It's what the Labour Party 52 00:02:36,360 --> 00:02:38,640 should be about. And her departure from 53 00:02:38,640 --> 00:02:40,840 government now is really, really sad. 54 00:02:41,400 --> 00:02:44,280 The truth is that the public didn't rally to her defence. 55 00:02:44,280 --> 00:02:46,120 You know, it played into that. They're all the same. 56 00:02:46,400 --> 00:02:48,120 They're all out for themselves. A few. 57 00:02:48,120 --> 00:02:50,800 Children, she had to go. The thing is about Angela Rayner 58 00:02:50,800 --> 00:02:54,080 is it's precisely because she's a work, a working class figure 59 00:02:54,080 --> 00:02:58,640 in in politics who doesn't actually tow the to toe the 60 00:02:58,640 --> 00:03:00,000 part. She doesn't particularly toe the 61 00:03:00,000 --> 00:03:02,920 party line, but she also doesn't accept a lot of the precepts of 62 00:03:03,080 --> 00:03:06,240 the mainstream. And they were out to get her and 63 00:03:06,240 --> 00:03:08,320 have been out to get her for a really, really, really long 64 00:03:08,320 --> 00:03:10,080 time. The media has been absolutely 65 00:03:10,080 --> 00:03:13,400 savage to Angela Rayner way before this happened. 66 00:03:13,400 --> 00:03:16,000 You know, two years ago she couldn't go to the opera because 67 00:03:16,000 --> 00:03:17,880 that wasn't authentic. But she did screw up. 68 00:03:17,880 --> 00:03:20,120 There's no point defending her. The thing is, this was somebody 69 00:03:20,120 --> 00:03:22,600 who. I actually disagree with you. 70 00:03:22,600 --> 00:03:24,880 I think there is a .40. 1000 lbs of tax. 71 00:03:25,400 --> 00:03:29,240 Yes, and I'm not defending that bit, but the the way it's been 72 00:03:29,240 --> 00:03:31,920 covered, you know, the Tory, the Telegraph, sorry, I call it the 73 00:03:31,920 --> 00:03:34,280 Tory graph. The Telegraph was saying that 74 00:03:34,280 --> 00:03:37,520 she was actually somehow making use of her son's disabilities 75 00:03:37,720 --> 00:03:41,080 for a financial gain for herself, which is a despicable 76 00:03:41,160 --> 00:03:44,400 slur and not remotely true. She did. 77 00:03:44,400 --> 00:03:47,440 If I'd been her, would I have just felt embraced it and just 78 00:03:47,440 --> 00:03:49,280 paid the taxes though, or the second time? 79 00:03:49,280 --> 00:03:52,400 Yeah, of course, because even if there were an ambiguity, it 80 00:03:52,400 --> 00:03:57,160 wasn't worth the fallout. But she as, as was found by the 81 00:03:57,320 --> 00:04:01,000 ethics inquiry, she she was, she acted with integrity, just not 82 00:04:01,000 --> 00:04:02,920 smartly enough. And the way she's being 83 00:04:02,920 --> 00:04:09,200 described is as if she is the most mendacious, most mercenary 84 00:04:09,320 --> 00:04:11,520 politician this Parliament has ever seen. 85 00:04:11,520 --> 00:04:16,040 Now that is preposterous. But, but politically, whether 86 00:04:16,040 --> 00:04:18,680 you like her or not, it's a disaster, isn't it, for Keir 87 00:04:18,680 --> 00:04:20,519 Starmer? Yeah, I think it is a total 88 00:04:20,519 --> 00:04:23,080 disaster and you can't put any gloss on it that doesn't show it 89 00:04:23,240 --> 00:04:25,720 anything other. He started the week saying he 90 00:04:25,720 --> 00:04:28,400 was going to relaunch his government with phase two, and 91 00:04:28,400 --> 00:04:31,160 he's ended it with a massive reshuffle, which he hadn't been 92 00:04:31,160 --> 00:04:33,600 planning. That is not good for any Prime 93 00:04:33,600 --> 00:04:35,880 Minister or any government to be in that situation. 94 00:04:36,120 --> 00:04:38,440 I do agree with the points that that Tom and Zoe are making, 95 00:04:38,440 --> 00:04:41,440 like she's a great character and authentic person and that she's 96 00:04:41,440 --> 00:04:43,440 made a real impact. She's one of the few cabinet 97 00:04:43,440 --> 00:04:46,680 ministers in the last year who's really, really come, I think, 98 00:04:46,680 --> 00:04:48,840 with positivity. And I think that that is a huge 99 00:04:48,840 --> 00:04:51,760 loss to Keir Starmer. The other side of that is if the 100 00:04:51,760 --> 00:04:54,600 boot had been on the other foot, she would have been kicking hard 101 00:04:54,760 --> 00:04:57,480 and she's done that in the past. And there is an element of what 102 00:04:57,480 --> 00:04:59,400 source for the goose is source for the gander here. 103 00:05:00,640 --> 00:05:03,480 Just just on that, I think we have to be careful not do what 104 00:05:03,480 --> 00:05:05,720 we call false equivalents here, right? 105 00:05:05,720 --> 00:05:10,920 Yeah, She's been reckless, maybe careless in how she bought a new 106 00:05:11,040 --> 00:05:13,480 flat, her only property in Brighton. 107 00:05:14,640 --> 00:05:17,440 There's no equivalence there between Downing St. being the 108 00:05:17,440 --> 00:05:22,520 most prosecuted workplace in the country during COVID, hundreds 109 00:05:22,520 --> 00:05:25,880 of millions of pounds of public money being handed out to Tory 110 00:05:25,880 --> 00:05:29,240 mates and Tory cronies. Boris Johnson lying so often. 111 00:05:29,240 --> 00:05:31,400 But that's all history. It doesn't matter. 112 00:05:31,400 --> 00:05:32,640 But. People shouldn't draw moral 113 00:05:32,640 --> 00:05:33,840 credits. It's not all the same. 114 00:05:33,840 --> 00:05:36,080 That's really dangerous when people say politics are all the 115 00:05:36,160 --> 00:05:38,080 same. Even the the even the report 116 00:05:38,080 --> 00:05:39,560 today says she acted with integrity. 117 00:05:39,560 --> 00:05:41,560 She's made a mistake and she's paid the price for it. 118 00:05:41,560 --> 00:05:44,080 What? Do you think that if there been 119 00:05:44,120 --> 00:05:46,920 a Tory politician that was in exactly the same circumstance as 120 00:05:46,960 --> 00:05:49,160 Angela Ranger that she wouldn't have been kicking them? 121 00:05:50,240 --> 00:05:53,160 I, I think she probably would have been kicking, but I think, 122 00:05:53,160 --> 00:05:55,880 you know, when she was kicking people like Nadine Zahari, that 123 00:05:55,880 --> 00:05:59,520 was about millions and millions of pounds, not 40,000 lbs. 124 00:05:59,520 --> 00:06:01,800 I mean, you do have to. Decide it's sort of it's. 125 00:06:02,640 --> 00:06:04,800 To add something to that, which is that you're, you get a huge 126 00:06:04,800 --> 00:06:06,880 insulation from being extremely wealthy. 127 00:06:06,880 --> 00:06:09,600 So I know nothing at all about Boris Johnson's divorce. 128 00:06:09,600 --> 00:06:11,880 I know nothing at all about Matt, Matt Hancock's divorce 129 00:06:12,040 --> 00:06:14,160 because they've got money. So I don't know where they pay 130 00:06:14,160 --> 00:06:16,120 for expensive lawyers. You know, they pay for the 131 00:06:16,120 --> 00:06:18,120 expensive lawyers. I don't know where the equity 132 00:06:18,120 --> 00:06:20,120 went in their houses. I just don't know. 133 00:06:20,360 --> 00:06:23,040 Whereas when you're kind of Angela Rayner, she, all the 134 00:06:23,040 --> 00:06:25,520 money she's got is money that she's worked, worked for is 135 00:06:25,520 --> 00:06:28,520 quite transparent. You are a disadvantage I think. 136 00:06:28,640 --> 00:06:31,960 I mean, you know, the, the, the other aspect though of what he's 137 00:06:31,960 --> 00:06:35,600 lost is a woman who could reach parts of the Labour Party that 138 00:06:35,600 --> 00:06:37,840 he can't. But it's more than that Kier, I 139 00:06:37,840 --> 00:06:41,160 mean, if Kier thinks if, if it's like Kier being, everybody's 140 00:06:41,240 --> 00:06:44,360 talking as though Kier has been super ruthless and very smart 141 00:06:44,360 --> 00:06:46,120 and he's really just like surging through. 142 00:06:46,360 --> 00:06:49,960 But actually this weakens Kier, not just with the with the 143 00:06:50,000 --> 00:06:53,560 Labour members who really liked Angela, not just with the with 144 00:06:53,560 --> 00:06:55,800 the left of the parliamentary party who were feeling 145 00:06:55,800 --> 00:06:59,360 rebellious and fractious anyway, but also with his own detractors 146 00:06:59,520 --> 00:07:01,600 aren't in the centre right of the Labour Party. 147 00:07:01,840 --> 00:07:04,480 They were always, they were never going to move on him 148 00:07:04,480 --> 00:07:06,760 because the alternative was always going to be Angela Rayner 149 00:07:06,760 --> 00:07:10,200 because she was deputy. Once the deputy isn't that much 150 00:07:10,200 --> 00:07:13,200 of A threat, he's in a much more precarious position. 151 00:07:13,280 --> 00:07:16,080 It, it look it, he definitely looks a definite loss for Keir 152 00:07:16,080 --> 00:07:18,960 Starmer. But he did say he was going to 153 00:07:18,960 --> 00:07:21,120 behave like this. I mean, he said to, he said, he 154 00:07:21,120 --> 00:07:24,000 said to me, he said to me before the election that no one's going 155 00:07:24,000 --> 00:07:27,040 to believe that I want to restore trust in in politics 156 00:07:27,320 --> 00:07:31,160 until I act. And when a minister is in clear 157 00:07:31,160 --> 00:07:33,720 breach of the ministerial code, they will be out. 158 00:07:33,720 --> 00:07:35,320 I don't care who they are, I don't care whether it's Rachel 159 00:07:35,320 --> 00:07:38,200 Reed, whoever, they will be out. And that's to be fair to him, 160 00:07:38,200 --> 00:07:40,120 that's what he's done. We often point out when promises 161 00:07:40,120 --> 00:07:45,240 don't fulfil their promises. This is a promise met as we're 162 00:07:45,240 --> 00:07:47,360 pointing that out too. Though they could have been more 163 00:07:47,360 --> 00:07:49,520 ruthless, couldn't they? I mean, they could have said on 164 00:07:49,520 --> 00:07:53,560 Monday, this is going to be a disaster, you need to go now. 165 00:07:53,840 --> 00:07:55,160 He waited till the end of the week. 166 00:07:55,160 --> 00:07:56,960 He's. Done the old fashioned thing of 167 00:07:57,160 --> 00:08:00,320 establishing the facts, asking an independent. 168 00:08:00,320 --> 00:08:02,120 You've just read the government website, no? 169 00:08:03,000 --> 00:08:05,600 No, asking the independent, and it's important that you have an 170 00:08:05,600 --> 00:08:07,880 independent adviser. The reason why Boris Johnson 171 00:08:07,880 --> 00:08:09,680 didn't have one, this government's got one. 172 00:08:10,240 --> 00:08:13,440 Well, asking the independent ethics advisor to make it, to do 173 00:08:13,440 --> 00:08:16,200 a report, waiting for that, and then acting. 174 00:08:16,200 --> 00:08:17,680 That's how governments should operate. 175 00:08:17,680 --> 00:08:20,520 But Tim Allen, you know, began his big new job as the executive 176 00:08:20,520 --> 00:08:23,880 director of communications this week in the Monday reshuffle. 177 00:08:24,120 --> 00:08:25,840 Shouldn't have been the man in charge of the message. 178 00:08:25,840 --> 00:08:28,600 Shouldn't he have been saying you've just got to go, you know? 179 00:08:29,080 --> 00:08:31,480 I've been in situations before where at the beginning of the 180 00:08:31,480 --> 00:08:34,159 week I've said to the Prime Minister, I'm pretty certain by 181 00:08:34,159 --> 00:08:37,480 the end of the week, this person's going to have to go and 182 00:08:37,480 --> 00:08:40,200 you are going to spend this entire week investing political 183 00:08:40,200 --> 00:08:43,080 capital in them and that's going to be problematic for you. 184 00:08:43,360 --> 00:08:45,520 The case of Maria Miller I think was a good case of that. 185 00:08:45,520 --> 00:08:48,520 The the entire week was spent defending her and then she had 186 00:08:48,520 --> 00:08:50,160 to go. And I would just say one thing 187 00:08:50,160 --> 00:08:51,440 to Tom here. I think that he's doing a 188 00:08:51,440 --> 00:08:54,840 brilliant job of trying to put a gloss on this, but he's 189 00:08:54,840 --> 00:08:57,600 clutching his Taws here. You know, yes, OK, there's some 190 00:08:57,600 --> 00:09:00,880 integrity in terms of maybe how Keir Thomas behave, but it is a 191 00:09:00,960 --> 00:09:04,280 disaster and one of and the Deputy Prime Minister, the 192 00:09:04,280 --> 00:09:06,800 deputy leader of the Labour Party and the housing minister 193 00:09:06,800 --> 00:09:10,640 has gone in one foul swoop. That is seriously problematic. 194 00:09:10,760 --> 00:09:13,160 You now have a different Foreign secretary to the one we had 195 00:09:13,160 --> 00:09:13,840 yesterday. Right. 196 00:09:13,840 --> 00:09:16,040 Well, let's talk about that, that reshuffle and what's 197 00:09:16,040 --> 00:09:19,640 happened, because he could have gone for a very, very minimal 198 00:09:20,520 --> 00:09:22,840 reshuffle. He could have just moved Pat 199 00:09:22,840 --> 00:09:26,000 McFadden to housing and promoted Darren Jones and that would have 200 00:09:26,000 --> 00:09:28,120 been it. You know, no, no need for a big 201 00:09:28,120 --> 00:09:29,440 reshuffle. Instead he's gone for a massive 202 00:09:29,440 --> 00:09:32,320 reshuffle. All you know, all the key people 203 00:09:32,520 --> 00:09:36,360 have lost their jobs, except arguably 2 of the big problems, 204 00:09:36,400 --> 00:09:39,320 Rachel Reeves and Ed Miliband. Why is he gone for this 205 00:09:39,320 --> 00:09:40,960 Miliband? Isn't the problem. 206 00:09:40,960 --> 00:09:44,360 Well, I mean, if you're trying to, if you're trying to fight 207 00:09:44,360 --> 00:09:46,920 reform, those are the two issues, aren't they? 208 00:09:47,960 --> 00:09:49,640 Reform vote is actually like net zero. 209 00:09:49,640 --> 00:09:51,920 I really, I mean, you have to be careful with that I. 210 00:09:52,120 --> 00:09:53,520 Also need to take we'll. Come back to that. 211 00:09:53,520 --> 00:09:55,640 But why is he gone for a big reshuffle rather than a little 212 00:09:55,640 --> 00:09:56,920 one? As a result of this I. 213 00:09:57,560 --> 00:10:01,440 Mean look, look, it is they're, they're, I think they were 214 00:10:01,440 --> 00:10:04,400 planning a big reshuffle. I think they brought it forward. 215 00:10:04,920 --> 00:10:09,960 I think it does have the advantage of, you know, showing 216 00:10:09,960 --> 00:10:14,440 the seizing initiative, reinvigorating a government 217 00:10:14,440 --> 00:10:15,800 which has been bashed around a lot. 218 00:10:16,080 --> 00:10:17,640 I think there are other things going on. 219 00:10:17,640 --> 00:10:21,160 I mean, I, I think for a long time they've regarded Yvette 220 00:10:21,160 --> 00:10:27,640 Cooper as an obstacle to taking a tougher line on immigrants and 221 00:10:27,640 --> 00:10:30,880 small boats crossings. Now, whether that's, you know, 222 00:10:31,160 --> 00:10:33,800 whether Shabana is going to be the first time, she's a bit of a 223 00:10:33,800 --> 00:10:35,840 favorite down the street. But I think a lot of the 224 00:10:35,840 --> 00:10:38,160 reshuffle revolves around that change there. 225 00:10:39,160 --> 00:10:41,120 Zoe, what were you going? To say, well, I really need to 226 00:10:41,120 --> 00:10:44,720 take issue with this idea that you that people, the cabinet 227 00:10:44,720 --> 00:10:48,320 ministers who are unpopular with reform voters are somehow a 228 00:10:48,320 --> 00:10:51,200 problem for the Labour Party. The problem for the Labour Party 229 00:10:51,200 --> 00:10:54,000 is that they don't have more cabinet ministers who reform 230 00:10:54,000 --> 00:10:58,480 voters don't like because there is such a thing as a as a as a 231 00:10:58,480 --> 00:11:00,400 political divide. So what problems do you think 232 00:11:00,400 --> 00:11:01,440 they are solving? So what? 233 00:11:01,520 --> 00:11:04,160 They think what they think they're solving is, I mean, 234 00:11:04,160 --> 00:11:07,480 basically they they think they're solving if they put a 235 00:11:07,480 --> 00:11:11,440 vet on foreign on foreign, then they don't have the problem with 236 00:11:11,440 --> 00:11:12,760 her in the Home Office. What? 237 00:11:12,760 --> 00:11:15,160 Was the problem well? The problem was that everything 238 00:11:15,160 --> 00:11:19,200 about her past as a politician was pro asylum seekers, pro 239 00:11:19,200 --> 00:11:21,680 humanity, pro decency. And then she was. 240 00:11:21,680 --> 00:11:22,960 Not that's a problem in the modern. 241 00:11:22,960 --> 00:11:24,160 Election. But she was suddenly having to 242 00:11:24,160 --> 00:11:26,920 come out and make these ridiculous cases like, oh, I 243 00:11:26,920 --> 00:11:29,040 have St. George's flags all over my 244 00:11:29,040 --> 00:11:31,560 house, house. I've even got a Yorkshire flag. 245 00:11:31,760 --> 00:11:35,320 I mean, she was trying to out reform, reform and it was making 246 00:11:35,320 --> 00:11:38,160 her and the party ridiculous. I think she will actually, 247 00:11:38,160 --> 00:11:41,760 ironically be less exposed to that as foreign secretary than 248 00:11:41,760 --> 00:11:44,600 she was as home secretary. I think it's a big theme that's 249 00:11:44,760 --> 00:11:47,240 in danger of coming through this week for Kier Starmer, and it 250 00:11:47,240 --> 00:11:51,040 started with yet again reshuffling the backroom staff. 251 00:11:51,040 --> 00:11:53,200 This isn't quite working. They're not doing the job I want 252 00:11:53,200 --> 00:11:55,680 them to do now. I'm reshuffling my top team 253 00:11:55,680 --> 00:11:57,560 because they're not quite working, they're not doing the 254 00:11:57,600 --> 00:11:59,520 thing. The problem is for the Labour 255 00:11:59,520 --> 00:12:02,920 Party at the moment and this administration is what does it 256 00:12:02,920 --> 00:12:06,640 stand for and who is it for? And nobody that I can meet who 257 00:12:06,640 --> 00:12:09,560 takes a keen interest in politics can sum that up crisply 258 00:12:09,560 --> 00:12:11,440 and cleanly, let alone the Prime Minister. 259 00:12:11,680 --> 00:12:14,600 And as long as he goes round and round second people left, right 260 00:12:14,600 --> 00:12:17,760 and centre and saying that until he gets to the point of saying 261 00:12:17,880 --> 00:12:21,400 this is what this government is for, this is who it's for, and 262 00:12:21,400 --> 00:12:24,800 is able to say that clearly and be able to demonstrate day after 263 00:12:24,800 --> 00:12:27,280 day after day that that is what is happening, he's going to 264 00:12:27,280 --> 00:12:28,800 continue with problems like this. 265 00:12:28,960 --> 00:12:31,440 And there's a real danger that today is the moment that the 266 00:12:31,440 --> 00:12:33,960 wheels have come off this administration and it won't be 267 00:12:33,960 --> 00:12:36,200 able to write itself. It's got a big budget coming up. 268 00:12:36,200 --> 00:12:37,960 That's a problem. It's going to have to elect the 269 00:12:37,960 --> 00:12:39,960 deputy leader of the Labour Party where it's going to be a 270 00:12:39,960 --> 00:12:42,360 running commentary on policy of the government. 271 00:12:42,640 --> 00:12:46,200 It's it's it's really bad. And at the heart of it is, what 272 00:12:46,400 --> 00:12:48,520 are you stand for and what are you trying to achieve? 273 00:12:48,520 --> 00:12:50,800 Yeah, I, I. Couldn't agree more about the 274 00:12:50,880 --> 00:12:53,720 what you, what do you stand for? It's, it's really preposterous 275 00:12:53,720 --> 00:12:57,400 because they, they spent so long trying to purge the left of the 276 00:12:57,400 --> 00:13:01,000 party and they're so they, they were so triumphant about it. 277 00:13:01,000 --> 00:13:03,120 You know, we've purged all the left wing members. 278 00:13:03,320 --> 00:13:05,640 We've like sidelined all the left MPs. 279 00:13:05,840 --> 00:13:08,640 They kind of managed to, but they, you know, the, the, the 280 00:13:08,640 --> 00:13:12,160 rebellion on welfare, it sort of passed because summer happened. 281 00:13:12,480 --> 00:13:15,680 But really the the real problem with that was nothing to do with 282 00:13:16,280 --> 00:13:21,440 the problem was if you've got no left of the party then somebody 283 00:13:21,440 --> 00:13:25,560 in the centre needs to tell us what it's for because I haven't 284 00:13:25,560 --> 00:13:28,040 seen them know that. And do you see this reshuffle as 285 00:13:28,040 --> 00:13:30,320 a purge of the left? Well, no, I mean, you know, the 286 00:13:30,320 --> 00:13:33,200 left got purged ages ago. Angie isn't being Angie. 287 00:13:33,320 --> 00:13:34,520 You know Angie's left because Angie's left. 288 00:13:34,520 --> 00:13:38,120 But that, you know, it wasn't, it wasn't purging the left for 289 00:13:38,120 --> 00:13:40,720 her to go, whether she went like this or any other way. 290 00:13:40,720 --> 00:13:42,600 Look. Political parties aren't 291 00:13:42,640 --> 00:13:47,040 necessarily coalitions. And I think there has been a 292 00:13:47,040 --> 00:13:51,200 sense by among a lot of Labour supporters, a lot of Labour MPs, 293 00:13:51,800 --> 00:13:55,840 that this government has been a little bit in Hock to a media 294 00:13:55,840 --> 00:13:58,600 narrative that this is all about reform and that they've spent 295 00:13:58,600 --> 00:14:00,520 too much of the summer basically saying, you know, Nigel Farage 296 00:14:00,520 --> 00:14:01,720 is right, please don't vote for him. 297 00:14:02,360 --> 00:14:07,240 Well, I think it's very important now that Kier uses his 298 00:14:07,240 --> 00:14:11,720 conference speech, that Rachel uses her budget to reassert a 299 00:14:11,760 --> 00:14:17,080 sense of Labour values which are different to those of reform. 300 00:14:17,280 --> 00:14:20,360 If you're going to be, as Keir Starmer said to me, a 301 00:14:20,360 --> 00:14:23,520 progressive Labour Party fighting the populist right of 302 00:14:23,520 --> 00:14:26,320 reform, you have to speak some Labour language now. 303 00:14:26,320 --> 00:14:29,120 Andrew was brilliant at that. I hope she continues to do that 304 00:14:29,360 --> 00:14:31,840 from the backbenches. But it's really important that 305 00:14:31,840 --> 00:14:34,880 that clear message, that clear narrative about who we are is 306 00:14:34,880 --> 00:14:36,120 expressed now. Don't mean that. 307 00:14:36,120 --> 00:14:39,320 Do you know what to do? So Craig, Craig say, oh, yeah, 308 00:14:39,440 --> 00:14:41,880 when they reshuffle, you know, the the press team in 309 00:14:41,880 --> 00:14:43,200 downstream, that's got to be about. 310 00:14:43,200 --> 00:14:45,240 I mean, not everything is not what he has for breakfast has 311 00:14:45,240 --> 00:14:47,240 got to be the message. But I do think they've got to 312 00:14:47,240 --> 00:14:48,560 take this opportunity now. Yeah. 313 00:14:48,560 --> 00:14:51,520 No, no. But you can't make every single 314 00:14:51,520 --> 00:14:55,000 thing a critical moment. Keep sacking your people and 315 00:14:55,000 --> 00:14:57,520 saying they are to black. Also can I just say take as well 316 00:14:57,520 --> 00:14:57,920 you? You. 317 00:14:58,080 --> 00:15:00,280 You both. They will get there. 318 00:15:00,320 --> 00:15:03,080 They need to find a message. You know, this week may not be 319 00:15:03,080 --> 00:15:05,360 the best moment to express that message because there's too much 320 00:15:05,360 --> 00:15:07,120 going on. But there are big moments coming 321 00:15:07,120 --> 00:15:08,480 up. Conference budget. 322 00:15:08,520 --> 00:15:11,200 But does he know that? The question is, does he know 323 00:15:11,520 --> 00:15:13,920 what his mission is, what he's here for? 324 00:15:14,080 --> 00:15:15,600 Because. And do you know what it is? 325 00:15:15,600 --> 00:15:17,400 Because you spent more time with them than anyone else. 326 00:15:17,720 --> 00:15:20,760 But you're exactly you're really betraying yourselves, all of you 327 00:15:20,800 --> 00:15:25,120 as insiders so deep seated that you think conference, which is 328 00:15:25,120 --> 00:15:28,600 going to be the inflection point when everybody understands. 329 00:15:28,720 --> 00:15:30,480 I mean, that's like too insidery. 330 00:15:30,480 --> 00:15:33,880 That is not what knowing where you're going is, and everybody 331 00:15:33,880 --> 00:15:35,920 know you know nobody to. Say it though, isn't it? 332 00:15:36,400 --> 00:15:37,320 Yeah, but Tom. But nobody. 333 00:15:37,720 --> 00:15:38,760 Takes it. Nobody takes. 334 00:15:38,760 --> 00:15:39,800 It I mean, there's a serious question. 335 00:15:39,800 --> 00:15:41,800 Do you know what his great mission is? 336 00:15:42,560 --> 00:15:46,240 I've always been confident that Keir Starmer has a set of 337 00:15:46,240 --> 00:15:51,320 recognisable left of centre and also British values of decency, 338 00:15:51,320 --> 00:15:53,640 fair play, the rule of law. These are these are things which 339 00:15:53,640 --> 00:15:55,160 I think Keir Starmer really stands for. 340 00:15:55,480 --> 00:15:57,600 I don't think he needs this vision, which is one of these 341 00:15:57,600 --> 00:15:59,480 political insider words. I mean, you know, when I get 342 00:15:59,480 --> 00:16:01,720 into a car, I don't say I've got a vision about where I'm going. 343 00:16:01,720 --> 00:16:05,520 I use SAT NAV right. So, so I think the, the, the, I 344 00:16:05,520 --> 00:16:07,160 think, I think he can express those values. 345 00:16:07,160 --> 00:16:09,680 I think the danger is that people are always looking, 346 00:16:09,680 --> 00:16:12,240 there's big sort of media, political industry saying what's 347 00:16:12,240 --> 00:16:15,200 the new comma big idea? What's the three word slogan 348 00:16:15,200 --> 00:16:16,920 that's going to take on for? Well, I don't think, I don't 349 00:16:16,920 --> 00:16:18,920 think he needs to do that. I don't think he needs some 350 00:16:18,920 --> 00:16:22,000 single big vision. I think it does need to show 351 00:16:22,000 --> 00:16:24,360 demonstrate that he stands for Labour value. 352 00:16:24,360 --> 00:16:26,680 But he's the one, The thing is, let me check. 353 00:16:26,720 --> 00:16:29,440 And he is the one who said Farage is the big opposition. 354 00:16:29,680 --> 00:16:31,160 It's not one of the media narrative. 355 00:16:31,560 --> 00:16:33,200 The, you know, the the the. He. 356 00:16:34,000 --> 00:16:36,680 He, he says immediately out of now, but he said it very early 357 00:16:36,680 --> 00:16:38,240 on. He said reform of the 358 00:16:38,240 --> 00:16:39,720 opposition, not the Conservatives. 359 00:16:40,200 --> 00:16:42,680 We all know what Farage stands for now. 360 00:16:42,840 --> 00:16:45,400 Whether you think he can deliver it or not is a, is a, is a 361 00:16:45,400 --> 00:16:48,480 different thing. But but we know what you know he 362 00:16:48,520 --> 00:16:50,360 means. If you create a vacuum in 363 00:16:50,360 --> 00:16:52,320 politics, it will be filled by other people. 364 00:16:52,320 --> 00:16:55,240 You have seen throughout the summer Nigel Farage running 365 00:16:55,240 --> 00:16:58,480 rings around the government and the Conservative Party setting 366 00:16:58,480 --> 00:17:02,040 the agenda and it, I'm, I'm sorry to say this Tom Keir 367 00:17:02,040 --> 00:17:05,680 Salmer's biography cannot tell us what the government is about 368 00:17:05,680 --> 00:17:08,440 and what it's for. And that is a real problem. 369 00:17:08,440 --> 00:17:11,160 It's not about techniques and like trying to win over the 370 00:17:11,160 --> 00:17:12,200 media and all that kind of stuff. 371 00:17:12,280 --> 00:17:15,560 It is in the way that Atlee said I want to set up the welfare 372 00:17:15,560 --> 00:17:18,240 state and the NHS. We know what he wanted to do. 373 00:17:18,400 --> 00:17:20,560 What is the equivalent project for Keir Starmer? 374 00:17:21,319 --> 00:17:22,079 Give me a. SEC. 375 00:17:22,240 --> 00:17:25,440 Because The thing is there all that kind of he stands for 376 00:17:25,440 --> 00:17:27,040 decency, he stands for British values. 377 00:17:27,040 --> 00:17:29,400 There is literally no politician, including Nigel 378 00:17:29,400 --> 00:17:32,600 Farage, who wouldn't say that. So it's not a question of like 379 00:17:32,840 --> 00:17:35,880 he needs a vision, as in he needs a big new thing. 380 00:17:36,000 --> 00:17:38,720 And it's not a it's not a question of he needs something 381 00:17:38,720 --> 00:17:40,800 that, you know, everybody can, everybody can write down in a 382 00:17:40,800 --> 00:17:44,000 paragraph. It's it's the reason people know 383 00:17:44,000 --> 00:17:47,440 what Nigel Farage stands for is that he doesn't equivocate. 384 00:17:47,840 --> 00:17:52,080 So at some point he has to have he has to stop equivocating and 385 00:17:52,120 --> 00:17:56,600 and have some have an enemy. For example, you know, there is 386 00:17:56,840 --> 00:17:59,280 the the Kier doesn't Kier never has an enemy. 387 00:17:59,280 --> 00:18:02,400 He's never against business. He's never against, he's never 388 00:18:02,400 --> 00:18:05,800 against wealth. He's never against anything. 389 00:18:05,960 --> 00:18:08,880 He's never against anybody except a little bit less than 390 00:18:08,880 --> 00:18:12,080 whoever Farage is against. And that you know, he is a 391 00:18:12,080 --> 00:18:14,720 problem. He doesn't seem like he has a 392 00:18:14,720 --> 00:18:18,040 passion for a different, well, look, look. 393 00:18:19,200 --> 00:18:21,320 I, I don't think it is necessarily the case that the 394 00:18:21,320 --> 00:18:23,160 public know exactly what Farad stands for. 395 00:18:23,160 --> 00:18:26,440 And I think one of the things that Labour really need to do 396 00:18:26,440 --> 00:18:30,800 over the next few months is take on reform from being a sort of 397 00:18:31,080 --> 00:18:32,880 feeling like Brexit was a feeling. 398 00:18:32,880 --> 00:18:35,520 It was an abstract concept rather than a specific proposal. 399 00:18:35,640 --> 00:18:37,760 I think the referendum would have been one if you'd actually 400 00:18:37,760 --> 00:18:40,040 had a specific proposal because there's never a majority for 401 00:18:40,160 --> 00:18:43,680 specific form of Brexit. And I think as reform now have 402 00:18:43,680 --> 00:18:47,520 to have a program for government and I think as it emerges of who 403 00:18:47,640 --> 00:18:51,480 they are, it will be actually easier to define who Labour are 404 00:18:51,560 --> 00:18:53,800 and what Labour is about. And I think you're going to see 405 00:18:53,800 --> 00:18:55,840 a lot more about fairness. You'll see going to see a lot 406 00:18:55,840 --> 00:18:58,160 more about opportunity. There's some ideas around 407 00:18:58,160 --> 00:19:00,400 contributions which I'm not, I'm less convinced by at the moment. 408 00:19:00,560 --> 00:19:02,720 But, but I think there are themes emerging. 409 00:19:02,880 --> 00:19:04,720 But they do have to. I think they haven't done enough 410 00:19:04,720 --> 00:19:07,080 to join all the dots of those bullet points, of those 411 00:19:07,080 --> 00:19:10,160 different missions, those staging posts, those milestones, 412 00:19:10,160 --> 00:19:12,280 those, you know, there's too many bullet points and you need 413 00:19:12,280 --> 00:19:14,880 to join the dots. The missing membrane has been a 414 00:19:14,880 --> 00:19:19,360 very clear expression of Labour and rather traditional British 415 00:19:19,360 --> 00:19:21,160 values, which I think Keir Starmer can represent. 416 00:19:21,160 --> 00:19:22,760 I just don't think it's been done well enough before. 417 00:19:23,120 --> 00:19:25,360 I mean, what what happened to mission driven government and 418 00:19:25,360 --> 00:19:26,280 all of that? You know, I mean it's. 419 00:19:26,400 --> 00:19:27,280 Gone. What was the? 420 00:19:27,440 --> 00:19:29,840 3 words. What was the three words word 421 00:19:29,840 --> 00:19:30,920 thing? Was it the beginning of this 422 00:19:30,920 --> 00:19:32,960 week or the end of last? Week I I don't like three word 423 00:19:32,960 --> 00:19:34,200 slogans. I think three word slogans. 424 00:19:34,360 --> 00:19:37,360 I think three word slogans, whoever take that control, get 425 00:19:37,360 --> 00:19:40,000 Brexit done, smash the boats are part of the problem that we've 426 00:19:40,000 --> 00:19:42,280 got in this politics. Ridiculous conversation. 427 00:19:42,520 --> 00:19:45,520 We are going round and round in circles trying to work out what 428 00:19:45,520 --> 00:19:46,800 the hell this government's trying to do. 429 00:19:47,200 --> 00:19:49,760 It is madness, and isn't it terrible? 430 00:19:49,760 --> 00:19:52,960 Isn't it a damning indictment of what's actually happened today 431 00:19:53,120 --> 00:19:55,440 that has resulted in three people who follow politics 432 00:19:55,440 --> 00:19:58,280 incredibly closely, who can't begin to say what this 433 00:19:58,280 --> 00:19:59,560 government's doing or what it's about? 434 00:19:59,680 --> 00:20:00,440 What you. Did say that I. 435 00:20:00,440 --> 00:20:02,960 Don't think it's true, but you have well, give me one example. 436 00:20:03,240 --> 00:20:05,160 You you want a three word slogan and I'm what? 437 00:20:05,160 --> 00:20:07,040 I'm I don't know. I want a policy no but. 438 00:20:07,480 --> 00:20:09,000 Listen, I don't want a policy or a three. 439 00:20:09,040 --> 00:20:12,040 There's lots of policy. There is an appetite in this 440 00:20:12,040 --> 00:20:15,680 country for a party that opposes racist language, for a party 441 00:20:15,800 --> 00:20:19,440 that is not cruel to migrants, for a party that stands up to 442 00:20:19,440 --> 00:20:22,040 water companies, for a party that redistributes wealth. 443 00:20:22,240 --> 00:20:25,520 There is an appetite in this country for that those politics 444 00:20:25,680 --> 00:20:27,360 and Labour isn't iterating them now. 445 00:20:27,360 --> 00:20:30,320 Labour doesn't want to be that party anymore, but if they don't 446 00:20:30,320 --> 00:20:34,080 want to be that party anymore, trying to be half that party, it 447 00:20:34,080 --> 00:20:35,320 clearly isn't working. For them. 448 00:20:35,320 --> 00:20:38,840 So, so, so let's just drill a little bit into the deck chairs, 449 00:20:38,880 --> 00:20:40,680 you know, and what and what, what each of these appointments 450 00:20:40,680 --> 00:20:41,320 might mean. You won't. 451 00:20:41,360 --> 00:20:42,160 Be able to. Move them. 452 00:20:42,200 --> 00:20:44,400 I mean, the truth is that for most of the public, you know, 453 00:20:44,640 --> 00:20:46,960 they don't really know who a lot of these cabinet figures are. 454 00:20:46,960 --> 00:20:49,640 They're not they're not sort of giant personalities. 455 00:20:49,640 --> 00:20:53,880 But what is he doing beyond? I mean, I get you're, you're 456 00:20:53,880 --> 00:20:56,960 saying fine, Yvette Cooper was a bit of a block to reforming the 457 00:20:56,960 --> 00:21:01,480 Home Office in your view, but what, what what else has he 458 00:21:01,480 --> 00:21:04,120 achieved, though? I mean, what, why move Peter 459 00:21:04,120 --> 00:21:05,680 Kyle? Why move Liz Kendall? 460 00:21:05,680 --> 00:21:08,480 Why, you know, why give all of these people new jobs? 461 00:21:08,480 --> 00:21:10,360 That's. Why Pat McFadden has been moved 462 00:21:10,360 --> 00:21:13,520 to welfare, big spending department, but actually that 463 00:21:13,520 --> 00:21:16,360 proposals was sunk below the waterline, you know, or they're 464 00:21:16,360 --> 00:21:18,880 going back for another. Bite, aren't they? 465 00:21:18,880 --> 00:21:21,280 And he doesn't mind. He's he's such a Street Fighter. 466 00:21:21,280 --> 00:21:23,320 Pat McFadden. If they are, then that would be 467 00:21:23,320 --> 00:21:25,920 interesting. Take welfare, right? 468 00:21:25,960 --> 00:21:28,920 That's what we mean by doing stuff through Labour values. 469 00:21:29,400 --> 00:21:32,240 Now Keir Starmer has experience of disability. 470 00:21:32,240 --> 00:21:34,680 His mother was very disabled, his brother was disabled. 471 00:21:34,680 --> 00:21:36,960 He knows about this. So he could do a big speech, 472 00:21:36,960 --> 00:21:39,320 talk about his personal experience of this and then say 473 00:21:39,320 --> 00:21:42,280 we are going to change this, we are going to try and slow down 474 00:21:42,440 --> 00:21:45,520 the increase in the cost of disability benefits. 475 00:21:45,600 --> 00:21:48,480 But it's going to be informed by Labour principles. 476 00:21:48,640 --> 00:21:51,640 We don't put children into poverty, we take children out of 477 00:21:51,640 --> 00:21:54,080 poverty. We make sure their resources go 478 00:21:54,080 --> 00:21:55,280 to the people who really need them. 479 00:21:55,480 --> 00:21:57,920 And young people who can work should be encouraged back to 480 00:21:57,920 --> 00:21:59,320 work. Those are Labour principles. 481 00:21:59,320 --> 00:22:00,880 Those are principles everyone can sign up to. 482 00:22:01,080 --> 00:22:03,400 And if you did welfare reform through that, I think you can 483 00:22:03,400 --> 00:22:05,360 take the country and the PLP with you. 484 00:22:05,520 --> 00:22:06,280 That's what I mean. But. 485 00:22:06,320 --> 00:22:09,000 What was this Kendall getting wrong that Pat McFadden will get 486 00:22:09,000 --> 00:22:11,840 right, you know? Well, I mean, I, I think Pat 487 00:22:11,840 --> 00:22:14,240 McFadden, you know, he'll knock heads together. 488 00:22:14,240 --> 00:22:17,000 Liz Kendall used to get quite, quite grumpy. 489 00:22:17,000 --> 00:22:19,120 But no. But she didn't in the end, head 490 00:22:19,120 --> 00:22:21,640 off the rebellion. And they probably think Pat 491 00:22:22,000 --> 00:22:24,200 McFadden could. I mean, I don't think it's going 492 00:22:24,200 --> 00:22:25,520 to work, but I think that's the thinking. 493 00:22:26,320 --> 00:22:27,320 Why don't you think it's going to work? 494 00:22:27,520 --> 00:22:31,160 Well, because those, now that it's been galvanised, those MPs, 495 00:22:31,160 --> 00:22:36,040 it was a large number of Labour MPs went voted against that or 496 00:22:36,040 --> 00:22:39,200 kind of threatened to. And now they're, they're not 497 00:22:39,200 --> 00:22:40,800 going to sit. I mean, I don't know whether 498 00:22:40,800 --> 00:22:42,600 it's, I don't know whether it's actually going to pan out this 499 00:22:42,600 --> 00:22:44,080 way. But after the bond markets at 500 00:22:44,080 --> 00:22:46,040 the end of last week, a lot of people were saying they're going 501 00:22:46,040 --> 00:22:48,440 to have to go back for another go at welfare reform. 502 00:22:48,800 --> 00:22:52,200 And I don't think those MPs are going to go, oh, now I've heard 503 00:22:52,200 --> 00:22:54,520 about the bond markets. I'm not going to rebel again. 504 00:22:54,560 --> 00:22:56,680 I think it's going to, I think it's going to be just as bad, if 505 00:22:56,680 --> 00:22:58,680 not worse than last. Time there's a much better way 506 00:22:58,680 --> 00:23:00,600 to approach these reforms than the one they did. 507 00:23:00,840 --> 00:23:04,800 They made it presented as a cut. I think people are playing in to 508 00:23:05,000 --> 00:23:08,160 a sort of Daily Mail, Sun Times, Telegraph thing about everyone 509 00:23:08,160 --> 00:23:10,440 on welfare as a sponsor and a cheat, which is not true. 510 00:23:10,800 --> 00:23:13,800 And, and I, I think there's a better way to do this, but you 511 00:23:13,800 --> 00:23:16,760 start by saying we're going to be a better Labour government, 512 00:23:16,920 --> 00:23:18,840 not a bad version of a reform government. 513 00:23:19,520 --> 00:23:22,840 Yeah, but wasn't the biggest reshuffle you can imagine an 514 00:23:22,840 --> 00:23:24,840 opportunity to really look at Rachel Reeves? 515 00:23:25,520 --> 00:23:27,240 I mean, Oh my. Gosh, that's so harsh. 516 00:23:28,320 --> 00:23:30,760 Well, I mean, you know, there have been lots of people saying 517 00:23:30,760 --> 00:23:34,040 Rachel Reeves is going to have to go at some point in time, but 518 00:23:34,040 --> 00:23:36,360 if you and. If you as a government lose your 519 00:23:36,360 --> 00:23:39,160 chancellor, historically that really is admitting that the 520 00:23:39,160 --> 00:23:41,760 game is up. It is very rare in history for a 521 00:23:41,760 --> 00:23:44,360 chancellor to go and that not signaled the end. 522 00:23:44,360 --> 00:23:46,960 It might take a while to happen, but I think he would be 523 00:23:46,960 --> 00:23:50,360 extremely nervous. And what signal would it send as 524 00:23:50,360 --> 00:23:52,040 well? We very was just talking about 525 00:23:52,040 --> 00:23:54,680 what was going on in the Gilson bond markets and increased 526 00:23:54,680 --> 00:23:55,720 interest rates, that kind of thing. 527 00:23:56,080 --> 00:23:59,480 That message is that somebody who's talking about actually 528 00:23:59,480 --> 00:24:02,800 being in fiscally responsibility is going who replaces them. 529 00:24:03,080 --> 00:24:05,520 Do you then frighten the horses of the left wing of the Labour 530 00:24:05,520 --> 00:24:07,920 Party by putting somebody who really is into? 531 00:24:07,920 --> 00:24:10,360 So she think the fact that they're not, you know, the she, 532 00:24:10,360 --> 00:24:12,800 she was absolutely. The first thing they said was 533 00:24:12,880 --> 00:24:14,640 she's not losing her job. I think that. 534 00:24:15,000 --> 00:24:17,880 That tells you that the fiscal rules aren't going to change, 535 00:24:18,040 --> 00:24:20,760 no? They, they, they painted 536 00:24:20,760 --> 00:24:22,520 themselves into a corner on the economy. 537 00:24:22,760 --> 00:24:26,040 And Reeves and Starmer are tied at the hip and they, they, they 538 00:24:26,040 --> 00:24:29,160 hang together or hang apart. It's they that would have been 539 00:24:29,360 --> 00:24:32,680 utterly disastrous to have lost the Chancellor today or to have 540 00:24:32,680 --> 00:24:34,960 moved the Chancellor today. I mean, it would have looked 541 00:24:35,000 --> 00:24:37,360 extremely chaotic, wouldn't it, to lose your Deputy Prime 542 00:24:37,360 --> 00:24:39,320 Minister and lose your chancellor in the same day. 543 00:24:39,320 --> 00:24:41,480 It would it would it would look like self sabotage. 544 00:24:42,280 --> 00:24:43,880 Well, is it? Is it worse than moving your 545 00:24:43,880 --> 00:24:45,160 home secretary and foreign secretary? 546 00:24:45,160 --> 00:24:46,720 I think so. Yeah, I think the reaction in 547 00:24:46,720 --> 00:24:49,200 the markets when people thought that Rachel Reeves might be 548 00:24:49,200 --> 00:24:54,480 going earlier in the summer does give an indication of how 549 00:24:54,480 --> 00:24:56,520 important she is to this government. 550 00:24:56,520 --> 00:24:58,960 And the access between her and Kira, I think is intact. 551 00:24:59,320 --> 00:25:02,720 I think it'd be very strange to spend the summer planning to 552 00:25:03,440 --> 00:25:06,360 start trying to express what this government's about with the 553 00:25:06,360 --> 00:25:07,680 budget. That's one of the opportunities 554 00:25:07,680 --> 00:25:10,360 to to express it, to then remove the chancellor just beforehand. 555 00:25:10,520 --> 00:25:12,000 Is there? Have we got a date for the 556 00:25:12,000 --> 00:25:13,960 budget? Yeah, I remember this when he 557 00:25:13,960 --> 00:25:17,200 said, yeah, OK, because it's, it's already, it's already going 558 00:25:17,200 --> 00:25:19,080 to be hideous that you know, it's going to be. 559 00:25:19,120 --> 00:25:22,000 It's whatever happens, it's not going to, it's not going to feel 560 00:25:22,000 --> 00:25:24,240 like there's loads of money and this is going to be nearly 561 00:25:24,240 --> 00:25:26,040 Christmas. The other job Angela Rayner had 562 00:25:26,040 --> 00:25:27,360 was deputy leader of the Labour Party. 563 00:25:27,640 --> 00:25:30,240 That's not something Keir Starmer can just sort out, is 564 00:25:30,240 --> 00:25:33,480 it? There has to be an election and 565 00:25:33,480 --> 00:25:37,520 that's going to prompt a debate about whether Keir Starmer's got 566 00:25:37,720 --> 00:25:39,360 the Labour Party in the right direction. 567 00:25:40,160 --> 00:25:44,000 Do you think they can sort of fix it so there's so that 568 00:25:44,000 --> 00:25:46,640 there's not really a proper contest or do you think this is 569 00:25:46,640 --> 00:25:49,480 going to be a big out there debate about the future of the 570 00:25:49,480 --> 00:25:50,120 Labour Party? Are you? 571 00:25:50,480 --> 00:25:53,040 Sure of actually changing the rules of the election of that 572 00:25:53,040 --> 00:25:54,560 post. I don't think there's any way to 573 00:25:54,560 --> 00:25:57,160 fix it. Well, I mean, you know, whoever 574 00:25:57,520 --> 00:26:00,960 stands has got to get nominated by quite a large number of MPs, 575 00:26:00,960 --> 00:26:05,280 which might rule out what might be called a sort of hard left 576 00:26:05,280 --> 00:26:07,920 candidate. We'll see loads of hard left. 577 00:26:08,120 --> 00:26:09,240 I'm not. I'm not sure there's quite 578 00:26:09,360 --> 00:26:11,120 enough of that. Sorry, no. 579 00:26:11,800 --> 00:26:13,160 As a candidate, who would be the candidate? 580 00:26:13,200 --> 00:26:15,760 Who would be the candidate? I mean, it could conceivably be 581 00:26:15,760 --> 00:26:17,960 Louise Haig. That's probably the most. 582 00:26:18,160 --> 00:26:19,000 She's the most. No. 583 00:26:19,000 --> 00:26:21,440 OK, They've got no soft left. Kind of medium. 584 00:26:21,760 --> 00:26:23,000 Medium. She's like tofu. 585 00:26:23,000 --> 00:26:25,920 She's like medium left, But. But. 586 00:26:26,640 --> 00:26:28,960 Try and do it by acclamation if they possibly can. 587 00:26:29,200 --> 00:26:30,960 The thought. Of the Labour Party doesn't do 588 00:26:30,960 --> 00:26:31,680 that. Well, no, you. 589 00:26:31,680 --> 00:26:34,920 I mean, if only one person stands, you can actually 590 00:26:34,920 --> 00:26:37,120 engineer a situation with that. Gordon Brown, of course. 591 00:26:37,120 --> 00:26:38,800 Cinder. You can engineer a situation 592 00:26:38,800 --> 00:26:41,480 where one person stands, but the reality of having conflicting 593 00:26:41,480 --> 00:26:44,720 voices with a running commentary on policy and what influence 594 00:26:44,720 --> 00:26:47,320 you'll have on that is potentially disastrous. 595 00:26:47,320 --> 00:26:49,520 Do. You think, do you think a single 596 00:26:49,520 --> 00:26:51,400 candidate is possible? And who would it be? 597 00:26:51,400 --> 00:26:54,200 I I. I look, I don't think there's a 598 00:26:54,240 --> 00:27:02,000 huge appetite in APLP for a long and divisive election about, you 599 00:27:02,000 --> 00:27:03,320 know, the direction of this government. 600 00:27:03,760 --> 00:27:06,400 I think that, you know, I think a contest is not necessarily a 601 00:27:06,400 --> 00:27:11,000 bad thing divided in within the, you know, Labours are broad 602 00:27:11,000 --> 00:27:14,280 church, but as Neil Kinnock, like, say, churches have walls. 603 00:27:14,720 --> 00:27:17,520 And, you know, and, and, and, you know, as long as it's within 604 00:27:17,520 --> 00:27:20,120 that framework, I think that's not necessarily a bad thing 605 00:27:20,120 --> 00:27:22,960 because, you know, there does need to be a reconnection with 606 00:27:22,960 --> 00:27:24,600 the party. There needs to be a reconnection 607 00:27:24,600 --> 00:27:27,080 with Labour voters as well, a lot of whom haven't been 608 00:27:27,080 --> 00:27:30,440 hearing, you know, enough about why this is a progressive 609 00:27:30,440 --> 00:27:32,040 government. I think, and I think Kate is 610 00:27:32,040 --> 00:27:34,160 aware of that. So I think, yeah, this could 611 00:27:34,160 --> 00:27:36,640 actually be a positive thing in a way to have a depth leadership 612 00:27:36,640 --> 00:27:38,120 contest. You know, it can go wrong. 613 00:27:38,240 --> 00:27:40,760 I'm not guaranteeing, but I think in the right way, fought 614 00:27:40,760 --> 00:27:41,840 in the right way, it could be a positive. 615 00:27:41,840 --> 00:27:44,200 But is there another Angela Rayner who is a soft left 616 00:27:44,200 --> 00:27:46,520 candidate but who is loyal to Kier, Stan Lisa? 617 00:27:46,920 --> 00:27:48,400 Nandy could, yeah. There's lots of different. 618 00:27:48,400 --> 00:27:49,360 Things. It's not going to be Lisa. 619 00:27:49,400 --> 00:27:51,120 It would be, I can see it being Louise. 620 00:27:51,160 --> 00:27:54,160 I can, you know, a harder left candidate would be Clive Lewis. 621 00:27:54,360 --> 00:27:58,360 But the the truth of it is, whatever happens, this is not 622 00:27:58,360 --> 00:28:00,840 going to be great for Labour because if it's just ringside 623 00:28:00,840 --> 00:28:06,440 seat on Internet sign quite bitter fighting, which yields a 624 00:28:06,440 --> 00:28:09,560 candidate that nobody much, nobody much likes and just 625 00:28:09,560 --> 00:28:12,760 leaves everybody feeling very bruised. 626 00:28:13,320 --> 00:28:16,080 It's it's a precarious moment for the party in membership 627 00:28:16,080 --> 00:28:19,160 terms with your party starting and Zach Polanski winning the 628 00:28:19,160 --> 00:28:21,760 Greens. It's a precarious moment in 629 00:28:21,760 --> 00:28:24,840 terms of the PLP with so many of them kind of disgruntled and not 630 00:28:24,840 --> 00:28:27,120 really knowing what the what the point, what their kind of 631 00:28:27,120 --> 00:28:29,640 mission is. It's very precarious for Labour. 632 00:28:29,640 --> 00:28:32,280 And I think, even though I'm looking forward to it because I 633 00:28:32,280 --> 00:28:34,960 think there are conversations that need to be had, I think 634 00:28:34,960 --> 00:28:38,360 it's going to be ugly and and destructive. 635 00:28:39,320 --> 00:28:43,680 Do you think it's possible that Andy Burnham comes back into the 636 00:28:43,680 --> 00:28:48,400 fold somehow? Or Yeah, I mean, or, or or is 637 00:28:48,400 --> 00:28:49,200 that for another day? I. 638 00:28:50,200 --> 00:28:54,640 Mean there are there's possibilities for by elections I 639 00:28:54,640 --> 00:28:56,080 don't think he. Would have to be an MP would he 640 00:28:56,080 --> 00:28:57,080 would. Have to be an MP, but I don't, I 641 00:28:57,080 --> 00:28:58,040 don't have to. Be deputy. 642 00:28:58,160 --> 00:29:00,760 Leader of the yes, he does. He has to be from the PLP. 643 00:29:00,840 --> 00:29:04,120 But I don't, I, I, I think it's very unlikely that the deputy 644 00:29:04,120 --> 00:29:06,080 leader, new deputy leader is going to be anything other than 645 00:29:06,080 --> 00:29:07,320 a woman. I think it would look very odd 646 00:29:07,800 --> 00:29:09,880 to have 222 men. I mean, what what? 647 00:29:09,880 --> 00:29:13,800 What is remarkable is now all the great offices of state other 648 00:29:13,800 --> 00:29:16,240 than Prime Minister, the first time in British history occupied 649 00:29:16,240 --> 00:29:17,440 by women. I just don't. 650 00:29:17,440 --> 00:29:18,880 I'm secretary, foreign secretary and chancellor. 651 00:29:18,880 --> 00:29:20,640 It's just not. Remarkable anymore women are 652 00:29:20,680 --> 00:29:24,600 capable of being just as useless as men, and it's just not 653 00:29:24,600 --> 00:29:27,240 amazing to see that, to see loads of. 654 00:29:27,280 --> 00:29:29,240 Them Craig send the wrong. Message to people, I think, I 655 00:29:29,240 --> 00:29:32,920 think we're seeing the danger of like the Labour Party navel 656 00:29:32,920 --> 00:29:35,720 gazing and looking into itself and saying, having all these 657 00:29:35,720 --> 00:29:38,280 discussions and arguments, I make one big point as we're 658 00:29:38,280 --> 00:29:41,280 coming towards the end, I genuinely want to see this 659 00:29:41,280 --> 00:29:43,480 government succeed. And the reason I want that is I 660 00:29:43,480 --> 00:29:47,480 want a broad government that's largely in and around the centre 661 00:29:47,480 --> 00:29:49,920 of politics is to see, because I think the the British people are 662 00:29:49,920 --> 00:29:52,680 looking at politics at the moment and saying you're all 663 00:29:52,680 --> 00:29:54,360 failing. And if there's another failed 664 00:29:54,360 --> 00:29:57,640 government, that is going to be a real and serious problem in 665 00:29:57,640 --> 00:30:00,440 this country because it plays into the hands of Nigel Farage. 666 00:30:00,680 --> 00:30:04,040 And so I genuinely hope they get their act together, but I'm not 667 00:30:04,040 --> 00:30:05,760 hearing any sign of it at the moment. 668 00:30:06,560 --> 00:30:09,600 Look, for once I'm going to agree with Craig, partly because 669 00:30:09,680 --> 00:30:10,800 he wants the government to succeed. 670 00:30:10,800 --> 00:30:15,560 But the point is this, if this government does fail, it's not 671 00:30:15,560 --> 00:30:18,920 going to be replaced by some moderate Conservative government 672 00:30:19,640 --> 00:30:21,520 or even a moderate Conservative government in line to the 673 00:30:21,520 --> 00:30:24,680 Liberal Democrats, Keir Starmer said. 674 00:30:24,680 --> 00:30:27,720 I think it's true, if this government fails, it will be 675 00:30:27,720 --> 00:30:31,680 replaced by a populist far right government which will do 676 00:30:31,680 --> 00:30:36,400 immense, immense damage to everything we hold dear about 677 00:30:36,400 --> 00:30:38,800 this country. And so if you're patriotic, I 678 00:30:38,800 --> 00:30:40,320 think you should do want this government to succeed. 679 00:30:42,120 --> 00:30:45,040 If it even if it doesn't fail, I think it's going to be defeated 680 00:30:45,040 --> 00:30:48,160 by a populist far right government at the ballot box. 681 00:30:48,480 --> 00:30:50,000 I thought you've already. I haven't given up. 682 00:30:50,000 --> 00:30:54,040 I'm I'm just I'm I'm, I'm, I'm my Money's on another horse. 683 00:30:55,320 --> 00:30:57,560 What you think You think a far left party can win I. 684 00:30:57,720 --> 00:31:00,000 Think we need to have? Or do you think just splinters 685 00:31:00,000 --> 00:31:02,880 the left front? A party that's saying things 686 00:31:02,880 --> 00:31:05,000 that people believe in. Even at the price of, even at 687 00:31:05,000 --> 00:31:06,400 the price of reform winning. You can't you. 688 00:31:06,840 --> 00:31:09,440 The thing is, I've been listening to you guys since 1997 689 00:31:09,440 --> 00:31:12,840 when you say take your medicine, give up what you what you want. 690 00:31:13,360 --> 00:31:14,880 We're the only people who are going to win. 691 00:31:14,920 --> 00:31:18,240 And I'm done listening to it. All I all I know is that when 692 00:31:18,360 --> 00:31:20,200 the right coalition gets together, they tend to win. 693 00:31:20,280 --> 00:31:22,480 When the left coalition gets together, we tend to win. 694 00:31:22,800 --> 00:31:25,480 And it's really important, it's really important to try and find 695 00:31:25,480 --> 00:31:28,240 ways of building and bringing that coalition together, which 696 00:31:28,240 --> 00:31:31,080 goes back to my point, which you do have to start speaking 697 00:31:31,240 --> 00:31:33,400 progressive values. You can't just be looking like 698 00:31:33,400 --> 00:31:35,720 you're chasing after a form when we're losing 3 times as many 699 00:31:35,720 --> 00:31:38,000 votes to progressive parties than we are to reform. 700 00:31:38,520 --> 00:31:42,200 We had better leave it there. Tom Paul, twins Zoe Williams and 701 00:31:42,200 --> 00:31:45,000 Craig Oliver, thank you very much indeed for joining us. 702 00:31:45,400 --> 00:31:47,120 That's the forecast from Westminster. 703 00:31:47,240 --> 00:31:48,480 Bye. Bye.