1 00:00:00,040 --> 00:00:03,560 The real question is now. If Donald Trump comes into the 2 00:00:03,760 --> 00:00:07,960 picture, then we might face a dramatic phase in this war which 3 00:00:07,960 --> 00:00:11,200 might end it very soon. Why do you think Trump seems to 4 00:00:11,200 --> 00:00:14,800 have changed his attitude? Because he smells an easy 5 00:00:14,800 --> 00:00:17,440 victory. But on the other hand, someone 6 00:00:17,440 --> 00:00:21,240 has to whisper in his ear that this can also end in a 7 00:00:21,240 --> 00:00:24,320 catastrophe. When American soldiers will be 8 00:00:24,320 --> 00:00:27,280 hurted, he will be committed to do something more. 9 00:00:27,640 --> 00:00:32,520 He might send troops, 2 minutes later, the Russians might blink, 10 00:00:33,240 --> 00:00:40,680 and here you are in a World War. Welcome to the special edition 11 00:00:40,680 --> 00:00:44,720 of the Forecast from Tel Aviv, where of course a lot has been 12 00:00:44,720 --> 00:00:46,760 going on. We had a rather busy night with 13 00:00:46,760 --> 00:00:49,680 lots of air raid sirens. Again, the ballistic duel 14 00:00:49,680 --> 00:00:51,720 between Israel and Iran continues. 15 00:00:51,720 --> 00:00:55,120 And the big question hanging over all of this is what does 16 00:00:55,120 --> 00:00:58,480 Donald Trump do next? He's been using the word we an 17 00:00:58,480 --> 00:01:02,000 awful lot when talking about Israel's attempted possible 18 00:01:02,000 --> 00:01:05,120 regime change, if that's what they want, possibly getting 19 00:01:05,120 --> 00:01:08,320 involved to try and finally annihilate Iran's nuclear 20 00:01:08,320 --> 00:01:10,200 program. But will the Americans get 21 00:01:10,200 --> 00:01:12,080 involved? What are the consequences of 22 00:01:12,080 --> 00:01:14,000 that? There's an awful lot to discuss 23 00:01:14,280 --> 00:01:17,200 with me to do. So here's Gideon Levy, very well 24 00:01:17,200 --> 00:01:20,480 known Israeli author, journalist, broadcaster and here 25 00:01:20,480 --> 00:01:22,680 with me on the pavement. Good to see you, Gideon. 26 00:01:22,800 --> 00:01:25,600 Good to see you mate. If you had to put money on it, 27 00:01:25,600 --> 00:01:27,920 would you say the Americans are going to get involved? 28 00:01:27,920 --> 00:01:29,960 Yes, on it. Look, I'm not going to he put 29 00:01:29,960 --> 00:01:35,000 money on it because it all depends on some figure who is 30 00:01:35,000 --> 00:01:37,520 not stable. He goes to sleep. 31 00:01:37,680 --> 00:01:38,440 President. Sure. 32 00:01:38,800 --> 00:01:41,760 Sure, sure. He goes to sleep with one idea, 33 00:01:41,760 --> 00:01:44,840 he wakes up with another. I wouldn't put my money on 34 00:01:44,840 --> 00:01:47,920 anything. And that's really the crucial 35 00:01:47,920 --> 00:01:50,560 moment because would he decide to join? 36 00:01:50,760 --> 00:01:53,800 We are in one game. Would he decide not to join? 37 00:01:53,800 --> 00:01:55,600 We are in a totally different game. 38 00:01:55,600 --> 00:01:58,840 I mean, you can't exaggerate how dramatic it is. 39 00:01:59,480 --> 00:02:01,760 I have a theory which I'd like to test with you, which is that 40 00:02:01,760 --> 00:02:05,880 the one of the reasons why he might get involved is that one, 41 00:02:05,880 --> 00:02:08,360 this is low hanging fruit. The Iranians have already been 42 00:02:08,360 --> 00:02:10,880 weakened anyway before this latest war started. 43 00:02:11,200 --> 00:02:13,600 They seem to be in a weaker position now than before. 44 00:02:13,840 --> 00:02:15,880 And he can. You'll probably find it quite 45 00:02:15,880 --> 00:02:18,240 easy to get some credit from whatever's going to happen. 46 00:02:18,760 --> 00:02:22,200 And secondly, all the other things that he's tried in his 47 00:02:22,200 --> 00:02:25,200 pursuit of the Nobel Peace Prize haven't worked out, whether it's 48 00:02:25,200 --> 00:02:28,360 Gaza, whether it's Ukraine. And here's one that he might 49 00:02:28,360 --> 00:02:32,760 just think could work out. Yes and no. 50 00:02:33,200 --> 00:02:37,520 On one hand you're right. Yes, it seems to be easy. 51 00:02:37,520 --> 00:02:43,600 You just send few B2 or B52 and the problem is solved and Iran 52 00:02:43,600 --> 00:02:47,120 is on its knees. But with such wars, you know how 53 00:02:47,120 --> 00:02:49,480 they begin. You never know how will they 54 00:02:49,480 --> 00:02:52,400 end. It might end in a fiasco. 55 00:02:52,480 --> 00:02:55,040 It might end in a fiasco. You don't know how it will 56 00:02:55,040 --> 00:02:56,800 develop. Yeah, Secondly. 57 00:02:56,800 --> 00:03:02,880 Secondly, he is committed for not involving the Americans in 58 00:03:02,880 --> 00:03:04,960 any dispute. Until a few days ago. 59 00:03:05,200 --> 00:03:09,040 Exactly. So what will His base doesn't 60 00:03:09,040 --> 00:03:13,120 want any involvement except of the lunatic evangelist who for 61 00:03:13,120 --> 00:03:16,880 them the Jews are the chosen people and Israel is the chosen 62 00:03:16,880 --> 00:03:20,320 land, except of those lunatics. The evangelical Christians. 63 00:03:20,320 --> 00:03:23,280 The Christian Nationalists. Exactly, except of them. 64 00:03:23,760 --> 00:03:27,480 There are a few millions, but except of them, his base doesn't 65 00:03:27,480 --> 00:03:29,760 want it. Not only does his base not want 66 00:03:29,760 --> 00:03:31,320 it, they're actually rebelling against it. 67 00:03:31,320 --> 00:03:34,880 Steve Bannon on the record repeatedly day after day, saying 68 00:03:34,880 --> 00:03:36,400 this is not what we signed up to. 69 00:03:36,720 --> 00:03:40,480 Tulsi Gabbard, his own head of intelligence, saying to Congress 70 00:03:40,480 --> 00:03:42,200 in March and repeating it just the other day. 71 00:03:42,400 --> 00:03:45,840 There was no evidence to suggest that the Iran Iranians were very 72 00:03:45,840 --> 00:03:48,640 close to actually developing a nuclear bomb, right? 73 00:03:49,280 --> 00:03:53,160 So Piers Morgan. Piers Morgan, his supporter, 74 00:03:54,520 --> 00:03:58,080 he's against. So why do you think, and it's 75 00:03:58,080 --> 00:04:00,400 very hard to know the mind of Trump, why do you think Trump 76 00:04:00,520 --> 00:04:03,600 seems to have changed his attitude towards getting 77 00:04:03,600 --> 00:04:06,720 involved? Because he smells an easy 78 00:04:06,720 --> 00:04:11,560 victory, which might not be easy and not a victory, but this is 79 00:04:11,560 --> 00:04:14,360 what he smells. He smells an opportunity to do 80 00:04:14,360 --> 00:04:18,560 something which will succeed after all the failures, but on 81 00:04:18,560 --> 00:04:22,440 the other hand, someone has to whisper on his ear that this can 82 00:04:22,440 --> 00:04:26,120 also end in a catastrophe. And therefore I think we 83 00:04:26,120 --> 00:04:30,000 couldn't trust his judgment. He might change his mind in the 84 00:04:30,000 --> 00:04:34,320 coming hours 10 times, OK, but the but the coming hours are 85 00:04:34,320 --> 00:04:34,960 crucial. Right. 86 00:04:35,000 --> 00:04:37,240 But we're not going to put money on whether he's going to go in 87 00:04:37,240 --> 00:04:37,840 or not. You. 88 00:04:37,840 --> 00:04:39,600 Can put money as much as you want. 89 00:04:39,600 --> 00:04:42,480 Tiny and a tiny amount, but you're going to keep yours. 90 00:04:42,520 --> 00:04:43,440 I keep. OK. 91 00:04:43,640 --> 00:04:45,320 All right. I guess I have more less than 92 00:04:45,320 --> 00:04:48,960 you, so I have to be more. Helpful possibly discuss that in 93 00:04:48,960 --> 00:04:49,880 this podcast. OK. 94 00:04:50,360 --> 00:04:53,240 So the other thing is you say you know it could be 95 00:04:53,240 --> 00:04:55,920 catastrophic. What does that catastrophic 96 00:04:55,920 --> 00:05:00,360 scenario look like to you think? About Vietnam, Think about 97 00:05:00,360 --> 00:05:03,120 Afghanistan, think about Iraq. Libya. 98 00:05:03,400 --> 00:05:06,840 Libya. Think about Israel starting a 99 00:05:06,840 --> 00:05:10,880 war in Lebanon in 82. Think about Israel starting this 100 00:05:10,880 --> 00:05:13,480 war in Gaza, which doesn't seem to end ever. 101 00:05:14,040 --> 00:05:19,600 You start it and you don't know, OK, they will bomb Fodu and then 102 00:05:19,600 --> 00:05:22,560 they might hit back, including American bases. 103 00:05:23,040 --> 00:05:25,880 When American soldiers will be hurted. 104 00:05:26,040 --> 00:05:28,240 He will be committed to do something more. 105 00:05:28,560 --> 00:05:33,480 He might send troops. 2 minutes later the Russians might blink 106 00:05:34,120 --> 00:05:39,520 and here you are in a World War. I mean, it is so explosive that 107 00:05:39,600 --> 00:05:43,960 I wouldn't gamble on on on a, on a guaranteed victory here. 108 00:05:44,440 --> 00:05:47,960 Because the number of wars that start or where people get 109 00:05:47,960 --> 00:05:51,520 involved thinking it's over by Christmas or maybe by Labour Day 110 00:05:51,800 --> 00:05:54,160 and then it isn't, you know, there are too many of them to 111 00:05:54,160 --> 00:05:57,200 mention in this. Give me one example, at least in 112 00:05:57,200 --> 00:06:01,080 the Middle East, of a war which led to real good achievements. 113 00:06:01,480 --> 00:06:03,520 I can tell you about Israel's war. 114 00:06:03,840 --> 00:06:08,160 None of them, including the Six Day War, didn't lead Israel to a 115 00:06:08,160 --> 00:06:09,680 better place. None of them. 116 00:06:10,040 --> 00:06:12,720 But from Netanyahu's point of view, right, you've got a 117 00:06:12,720 --> 00:06:16,640 government, a regime in Iran that is, you know, openly vowed 118 00:06:17,240 --> 00:06:19,320 to achieve the destruction of the state of Israel. 119 00:06:19,320 --> 00:06:21,040 Israel does not have the right to exist. 120 00:06:21,400 --> 00:06:25,360 And there's this constant threat of nuclear capability hanging 121 00:06:25,360 --> 00:06:28,040 over that threat. Even if they don't, even if 122 00:06:28,040 --> 00:06:30,240 they're not close to developing a bomb, they might do. 123 00:06:30,680 --> 00:06:33,880 From his point of view, this is a legacy issue. 124 00:06:33,880 --> 00:06:37,440 And he would say one that actually could achieve, you 125 00:06:37,440 --> 00:06:39,280 know, a more peaceful future for this country. 126 00:06:39,680 --> 00:06:41,240 Totally, totally. Is he right? 127 00:06:41,920 --> 00:06:47,320 No, he is totally right by claiming that that's his life 128 00:06:47,320 --> 00:06:50,000 project. It is his life project and 129 00:06:50,000 --> 00:06:53,600 therefore I really believe that he does it with some genuine 130 00:06:53,600 --> 00:06:56,120 face that he's doing the right thing. 131 00:06:56,440 --> 00:06:57,960 He believes in what he's doing here. 132 00:06:57,960 --> 00:06:59,960 This is not just in chancing it right. 133 00:07:00,000 --> 00:07:04,360 Not only this, and it's not all those cynical consideration his 134 00:07:04,360 --> 00:07:09,120 his trial, his coalition. No, no, now he does it because 135 00:07:09,120 --> 00:07:12,040 he feels he's doing an historic step. 136 00:07:12,440 --> 00:07:15,960 The only problem is that, with all the respect to his judgment, 137 00:07:16,080 --> 00:07:21,600 this historic step might become also an historic fiasco for 138 00:07:21,600 --> 00:07:23,040 Israel. And it might not. 139 00:07:23,400 --> 00:07:27,000 It might not, but I cannot gamble and I don't think it's 140 00:07:27,000 --> 00:07:30,400 needed because there is still the alternative of getting back 141 00:07:30,640 --> 00:07:34,640 to the negotiation table and I would always prefer diplomacy 142 00:07:34,640 --> 00:07:38,200 over mass killing. Why do you think Benjamin 143 00:07:38,200 --> 00:07:41,840 Netanyahu is so obsessed with the issue of Iran 'cause he's 144 00:07:41,840 --> 00:07:44,840 been talking about it ever since he appeared on the political 145 00:07:44,840 --> 00:07:47,840 stage. More than any other issue, he, 146 00:07:47,880 --> 00:07:51,640 and does he see this as his big legacy as an Israeli leader in 147 00:07:51,640 --> 00:07:54,960 the kind of pantheon of history? More than this, he yesterday 148 00:07:54,960 --> 00:07:58,960 spoke about it in an interview. He was brought up in a certain 149 00:07:59,080 --> 00:08:02,000 atmosphere. His father was a well known 150 00:08:02,000 --> 00:08:06,840 historian and he was brought up, like many Israelis, under this 151 00:08:06,840 --> 00:08:10,920 heavy, heavy cloud of the Holocaust, which should never 152 00:08:10,960 --> 00:08:14,840 come again. Now, for those people, any small 153 00:08:14,840 --> 00:08:18,240 threats turns into a Holocaust, a second Holocaust. 154 00:08:18,560 --> 00:08:23,760 And therefore any small threat justify any reaction because we 155 00:08:23,760 --> 00:08:26,720 went through the Holocaust, because it shouldn't happen 156 00:08:26,720 --> 00:08:31,480 again. So his mindset is a very 157 00:08:31,840 --> 00:08:37,880 nationalistic mindset of someone who all the time is sure and 158 00:08:37,880 --> 00:08:42,280 convinced that he's just few metres from from extermination, 159 00:08:42,559 --> 00:08:46,840 that the Jewish people or the Jewish state is just few weeks 160 00:08:46,840 --> 00:08:49,240 from extermination, which is not the case. 161 00:08:49,360 --> 00:08:52,120 But is that a mindset that is shared by the majority of the 162 00:08:52,120 --> 00:08:55,440 public here? The brainwashed system of Israel 163 00:08:55,440 --> 00:08:59,600 is working on it and therefore it's getting, it's getting to a 164 00:08:59,600 --> 00:09:01,200 majority. Absolutely. 165 00:09:02,120 --> 00:09:06,160 We are brainwashed here systematically to believe that 166 00:09:06,160 --> 00:09:08,880 we are the chosen people to believe that they are. 167 00:09:08,880 --> 00:09:12,560 We are the biggest victory, biggest victim in history. 168 00:09:12,880 --> 00:09:16,080 And therefore, because of those two reasons, we have the right 169 00:09:16,080 --> 00:09:18,560 to do whatever we want. That's the mindset. 170 00:09:19,280 --> 00:09:22,400 Of all the wars that Israel has fought, you know, and there are 171 00:09:22,400 --> 00:09:24,920 quite a few wars that has fought just in the last 20 months, 172 00:09:25,520 --> 00:09:27,400 obviously against Hamas, but also others. 173 00:09:27,760 --> 00:09:31,760 Is this the most popular so far? Is there real support for this 174 00:09:31,760 --> 00:09:35,320 on the streets of? No doubt, No doubt about it. 175 00:09:35,920 --> 00:09:42,760 Israel is fearful with a very, very heavy cloud over our heads. 176 00:09:43,200 --> 00:09:47,080 But the support to Netanyahu jumped within hours. 177 00:09:47,600 --> 00:09:52,360 It can also fall within hours. But right now, when it seems as 178 00:09:52,360 --> 00:09:55,800 a as a victory, when it seems as a success story. 179 00:09:56,160 --> 00:09:59,400 And again, we are five days after the beginning, six days 180 00:09:59,400 --> 00:10:03,280 after the beginning, they all the walls that Israel launched 181 00:10:03,280 --> 00:10:08,560 started wonderfully and very soon later came the price and 182 00:10:08,560 --> 00:10:11,400 the price was unbearable. Let's see and wait. 183 00:10:11,440 --> 00:10:14,480 Right now it seems to most of the Israelis the right thing to 184 00:10:14,480 --> 00:10:18,440 do, and many even change their mind about Netanyahu and see him 185 00:10:18,440 --> 00:10:22,600 now as the the Messiah. It seems to be that for 186 00:10:22,600 --> 00:10:28,200 Netanyahu and many people in Israel, every problem is a nail 187 00:10:28,200 --> 00:10:33,960 and every solution is a hammer. I mean, is that true? 188 00:10:34,120 --> 00:10:35,360 And does it need to be like that? 189 00:10:35,680 --> 00:10:38,960 I would phrase it differently. I would phrase that for Israel, 190 00:10:39,600 --> 00:10:42,280 launching a war is always the first priority. 191 00:10:42,680 --> 00:10:45,160 Launching a war is. Always the first priority. 192 00:10:45,400 --> 00:10:47,760 The second one will be diplomacy, right? 193 00:10:47,920 --> 00:10:49,480 And it should be the opposite. Shoot. 194 00:10:49,640 --> 00:10:51,480 Shoot first, ask questions later. 195 00:10:51,480 --> 00:10:54,280 Absolutely, and negotiate even later. 196 00:10:54,280 --> 00:10:57,160 Has that worked for Israel? Look at Israel. 197 00:10:57,200 --> 00:11:02,520 I mean Israel is now in its worst situation ever, a pariah 198 00:11:02,520 --> 00:11:08,440 state with a broken society, with a society fatigue. 199 00:11:09,840 --> 00:11:13,600 This UK you call a success story, it was a success story in 200 00:11:13,600 --> 00:11:16,920 its establishment. But when you see now, look at 201 00:11:16,920 --> 00:11:21,440 the mood of Israelis, they are really looking for another 202 00:11:21,440 --> 00:11:27,320 passport and I'll take it away. This is not normal life and 203 00:11:27,320 --> 00:11:29,600 normal society. You've witnessed, you know, 204 00:11:29,600 --> 00:11:31,400 quite a few wars of this country. 205 00:11:31,400 --> 00:11:35,720 You live here in Tel Aviv. How has the soul of Israel 206 00:11:35,720 --> 00:11:38,760 changed over these years, with every war as a milestone? 207 00:11:39,200 --> 00:11:42,560 I think the main milestone recently is the 7th of October. 208 00:11:43,720 --> 00:11:48,400 The 7th of October took the Israelis out of the closet, at 209 00:11:48,400 --> 00:11:52,200 least the racist, the nationalist and those who were 210 00:11:52,360 --> 00:11:54,760 vague. They are now out of the closet, 211 00:11:55,040 --> 00:11:59,120 declared racist and nationalist, who think that the Palestinians 212 00:11:59,120 --> 00:12:02,160 have no rights in this piece of land, who think that Israel has 213 00:12:02,200 --> 00:12:03,880 the right to do whatever it want. 214 00:12:04,080 --> 00:12:08,840 Because of the 7th of October, it also changed many mindsets, 215 00:12:08,840 --> 00:12:12,440 mainly of the left or the Zionist left or the central left 216 00:12:12,640 --> 00:12:16,360 who used to have a dream or a plan to make peace with the 217 00:12:16,360 --> 00:12:19,440 Palestinians. They all retreated. 218 00:12:19,440 --> 00:12:21,680 Now they don't believe in any kind of agreement with the 219 00:12:21,680 --> 00:12:24,400 Palestinians. Even some of my good friends, 220 00:12:24,400 --> 00:12:28,400 yeah, they all think that the 7th of October changed anything. 221 00:12:29,040 --> 00:12:32,960 You know, ever since then Israel committed 107th of October in 222 00:12:32,960 --> 00:12:35,720 Gaza and this they don't realize. 223 00:12:36,320 --> 00:12:37,880 And why didn't they realize that? 224 00:12:38,520 --> 00:12:42,320 Because there is a brainwash system in Israel which prevent 225 00:12:42,320 --> 00:12:45,480 them to realize it. Because the Israeli media is 226 00:12:45,480 --> 00:12:49,400 collaborating, not with the government, not with any 227 00:12:49,400 --> 00:12:53,800 censorship which doesn't almost doesn't exist, which the need to 228 00:12:53,840 --> 00:12:59,360 please the viewers and the, and the readers with the need to for 229 00:12:59,360 --> 00:13:03,200 rating and, and and and and selling newspapers. 230 00:13:03,400 --> 00:13:06,240 And they know very well the Israelis don't want to know. 231 00:13:06,720 --> 00:13:08,160 And they know nothing about Gaza. 232 00:13:08,240 --> 00:13:12,760 And every Israeli take, even the most intelligent one, I'm always 233 00:13:12,760 --> 00:13:15,760 shocked how little they know about Gaza. 234 00:13:16,040 --> 00:13:20,600 I can tell you that any anyone in the suburb of Sheffield in 235 00:13:20,600 --> 00:13:25,640 the UK knows more about Gaza. So more about Gaza than an 236 00:13:25,640 --> 00:13:28,600 intellectual in Tel Aviv. Is that because they don't want 237 00:13:28,600 --> 00:13:31,200 to know anything about Gaza or because they're not shown 238 00:13:31,200 --> 00:13:33,160 anything about Gaza and they can't be bothered to look? 239 00:13:33,480 --> 00:13:36,920 Both, both, both. It goes together because if you 240 00:13:36,920 --> 00:13:40,280 really want to see, there's so many outlets that you can see 241 00:13:41,040 --> 00:13:44,960 you don't want to see, and the Israeli media enables you the 242 00:13:44,960 --> 00:13:48,200 luxury of not knowing and not seeing and not be troubled. 243 00:13:48,880 --> 00:13:51,440 I mean, I have to say that in this part of Tel Aviv, which I 244 00:13:51,440 --> 00:13:53,960 know we're surrounded by Palestinian buildings and the 245 00:13:53,960 --> 00:13:56,520 ghosts of the people who used to live in these buildings, they're 246 00:13:56,520 --> 00:14:00,560 still somewhere around us. You go to the beach. 247 00:14:01,400 --> 00:14:03,560 It feels like the South of France. 248 00:14:03,640 --> 00:14:07,000 I mean, the beach is full even when, you know, just before and 249 00:14:07,000 --> 00:14:10,280 after a siren, people are tossing volleyballs, playing 250 00:14:10,280 --> 00:14:13,080 football, having a great time. And an hour's drive down the 251 00:14:13,080 --> 00:14:15,600 road is Gaza. It's a different kind of beach. 252 00:14:16,040 --> 00:14:18,480 This has always slightly freaked me out, I have to say, even 253 00:14:18,480 --> 00:14:20,160 though I've been guilty of the occasional swim. 254 00:14:21,720 --> 00:14:25,600 Look, on one hand, people are very proud that Israel continues 255 00:14:25,600 --> 00:14:27,560 to live its life. The resilience. 256 00:14:27,680 --> 00:14:32,920 The resilience for me, it is really a moral disease. 257 00:14:33,200 --> 00:14:36,200 A moral illness. How can you? 258 00:14:36,520 --> 00:14:42,040 How dare you when one hour away from here there were 1000 babies 259 00:14:42,040 --> 00:14:45,680 slaughtered in the last 20 months, 1000 babies less than 260 00:14:45,680 --> 00:14:48,400 one year. And it doesn't concern you. 261 00:14:48,720 --> 00:14:51,600 It is the friends of your sons and the sons of your friends who 262 00:14:51,600 --> 00:14:54,280 did it. And it doesn't concern you that 263 00:14:54,480 --> 00:14:57,040 troubles you. You don't feel any kind of 264 00:14:57,080 --> 00:15:01,600 accountability, guilt, blame, something, nothing. 265 00:15:02,440 --> 00:15:04,760 And even those people and you mentioned some of them were your 266 00:15:04,760 --> 00:15:07,360 friends who might have felt guilt and blame about this in 267 00:15:07,360 --> 00:15:11,120 the past, who might have believed in A2 state solution in 268 00:15:11,120 --> 00:15:13,000 the past. No longer do. 269 00:15:13,160 --> 00:15:15,000 Absolutely. They all believe in any 270 00:15:15,000 --> 00:15:16,880 settlement. They believe on living on the 271 00:15:16,880 --> 00:15:21,640 sword forever. They believe only in wars, in 272 00:15:21,640 --> 00:15:26,560 aggression, in military steps, nothing but it because they say 273 00:15:26,560 --> 00:15:28,920 the Palestinians are not partners for anything. 274 00:15:28,960 --> 00:15:32,520 But this is, this city doesn't feel like a martial society, 275 00:15:32,520 --> 00:15:34,840 even though lots of people go to war and they, they put on their 276 00:15:34,840 --> 00:15:36,280 uniform, they do military service. 277 00:15:36,600 --> 00:15:40,200 It feels, you know, it's got a very sort of shortagey vibe 278 00:15:40,200 --> 00:15:42,040 about it. I mean, it's, it's funky, it's 279 00:15:42,040 --> 00:15:43,040 cool. They'd eat good food. 280 00:15:43,040 --> 00:15:44,520 They go to restaurants, they go to bars. 281 00:15:44,760 --> 00:15:46,840 You know, if the shops were open, they'd be dancing all 282 00:15:46,840 --> 00:15:48,880 night long. It doesn't feel like a 283 00:15:48,880 --> 00:15:50,880 militarised society, even though it is. 284 00:15:50,880 --> 00:15:54,120 So I can't I can't square that circle. 285 00:15:54,480 --> 00:15:57,360 It's very easy to square this circle. 286 00:15:58,000 --> 00:16:00,600 Did you see one demonstration against the war here? 287 00:16:00,600 --> 00:16:04,160 Against the war, not for the hostages, not against Netanyahu, 288 00:16:04,400 --> 00:16:07,720 against the crimes of the war? No one, nothing. 289 00:16:08,440 --> 00:16:11,120 Do you think that the people here are aware to what we are 290 00:16:11,120 --> 00:16:13,280 doing in Gaza, one hour away from here? 291 00:16:13,280 --> 00:16:15,720 No. So living in the living in 292 00:16:15,720 --> 00:16:20,040 denial is not something that any intelligent person should 293 00:16:20,040 --> 00:16:22,680 appreciate. On one end you say, yeah, this 294 00:16:22,680 --> 00:16:25,240 you live only once, let them live the normal life. 295 00:16:25,480 --> 00:16:28,640 But you don't have the right to live your normal life because 296 00:16:28,640 --> 00:16:34,040 you create an abnormal reality one hour away from here, and 297 00:16:34,040 --> 00:16:36,720 therefore we don't have the right to live normal lives now. 298 00:16:37,280 --> 00:16:40,640 Do you think the people of this city and this country care more 299 00:16:40,960 --> 00:16:43,720 about what happens to the citizens of Tehran than what 300 00:16:43,720 --> 00:16:46,720 happens to people in Gaza? No, no, no, no, no. 301 00:16:46,720 --> 00:16:48,640 By all means. No, no, no, no, no, no. 302 00:16:49,120 --> 00:16:51,440 They don't care about anyone who is not Jewish. 303 00:16:53,160 --> 00:16:59,400 The the the scope of our morality is a long, very clear 304 00:16:59,400 --> 00:17:03,240 nationalistic lines. We care only about what happens 305 00:17:03,240 --> 00:17:06,599 to Israel, to Israelis, and mainly to Jewish Israelis. 306 00:17:06,880 --> 00:17:09,920 If you phrase it like that, the question of the outcome of this 307 00:17:09,920 --> 00:17:15,280 particular conflict with Iran is overshadowed by a much bigger 308 00:17:15,280 --> 00:17:18,240 question, isn't it? The question of the future of 309 00:17:18,240 --> 00:17:21,359 the state of Israel, its viability as a democratic state, 310 00:17:21,720 --> 00:17:24,880 its existence not because of what enemies are trying to do to 311 00:17:24,880 --> 00:17:27,119 it, but what it might do to itself? 312 00:17:27,599 --> 00:17:30,040 Is that a fairpoint? It's not only a fairpoint, You 313 00:17:30,040 --> 00:17:34,560 underestimated it. Can you really define Israel as 314 00:17:34,600 --> 00:17:38,200 a democracy? Yes, Israel is democracy, even 315 00:17:38,200 --> 00:17:41,080 the liberal democracy for Jewish citizens. 316 00:17:41,440 --> 00:17:43,800 You have Free Press. You have free and fair 317 00:17:43,800 --> 00:17:45,280 elections. Free speech. 318 00:17:45,480 --> 00:17:46,680 I'm the best. I'm the best. 319 00:17:46,680 --> 00:17:49,920 They. Don't like you very much, do 320 00:17:49,920 --> 00:17:50,320 they? They. 321 00:17:50,360 --> 00:17:52,240 Don't. But they, they let me talk at 322 00:17:52,240 --> 00:17:56,480 least at least to certain extent, because I'm totally bent 323 00:17:56,480 --> 00:17:59,200 on Israeli TV. Ever since this war started, I 324 00:17:59,200 --> 00:18:02,920 used to be often on TV. Not anymore, but no problems. 325 00:18:02,920 --> 00:18:08,040 That's not, I'm not the victim of this war, but how can you be 326 00:18:08,040 --> 00:18:12,400 a democracy when 5 million people are living under your 327 00:18:12,640 --> 00:18:16,400 brutal tyranny in the West Bank and in other way in Gaza? 328 00:18:16,680 --> 00:18:19,240 How can this be defined? It's part of Israel. 329 00:18:19,400 --> 00:18:22,120 It is part and. Part of Israel. 330 00:18:22,640 --> 00:18:26,160 It is the factor part of Israel and it is part of Israel because 331 00:18:26,280 --> 00:18:29,880 the government in Jerusalem decides their fate and no other, 332 00:18:30,120 --> 00:18:32,720 no one else. The The government in Jerusalem 333 00:18:32,720 --> 00:18:35,720 defines the fate of the people in Gaza and they they decide the 334 00:18:35,720 --> 00:18:37,080 fate of the people in The West Wing. 335 00:18:37,520 --> 00:18:40,440 And do you think that this government, with President 336 00:18:40,440 --> 00:18:43,240 Trump, you know, as their support act in the White House 337 00:18:43,680 --> 00:18:47,480 is closer, as many had predicted, to formalising that 338 00:18:47,480 --> 00:18:50,840 relationship to annexing the West Bank, to annexing the Gaza 339 00:18:50,840 --> 00:18:53,240 Strip? I must tell you, it's for me. 340 00:18:53,240 --> 00:18:55,720 It's a minor question. The West Bank is an excited. 341 00:18:56,200 --> 00:18:59,400 Long time ago. Long time ago. 342 00:18:59,640 --> 00:19:02,120 Go to the West Bank. You see any difference? 343 00:19:02,360 --> 00:19:06,880 It's an apartheid region. Definitely cannot be defined 344 00:19:06,920 --> 00:19:09,320 otherwise. But for Jews, what's the 345 00:19:09,320 --> 00:19:12,040 difference about being in the West Bank or in Tel Aviv? 346 00:19:12,480 --> 00:19:16,400 Same law, same currency, everything and same rule. 347 00:19:17,600 --> 00:19:20,400 Would you then say to the Palestinian people and to their 348 00:19:20,400 --> 00:19:24,360 supporters, you know, in the UK and around the Middle East, the 349 00:19:24,360 --> 00:19:27,280 dream of a palace in an independent, sovereign 350 00:19:27,480 --> 00:19:31,600 Palestinian nation state, let us be clear, is finished. 351 00:19:34,120 --> 00:19:36,360 I'm. Hesitating because they really 352 00:19:36,360 --> 00:19:38,840 deserve a Palestinian state they really deserve. 353 00:19:38,840 --> 00:19:40,200 The reality. I'm not talking about what they 354 00:19:40,200 --> 00:19:42,840 deserve, of course they deserve that, but the reality. 355 00:19:42,840 --> 00:19:45,920 More than this, continuing to talk about the two state 356 00:19:45,920 --> 00:19:49,400 solution place to the hands of the occupation. 357 00:19:49,720 --> 00:19:52,440 Why? Because everyone knows that 358 00:19:52,440 --> 00:19:56,000 there there is no room anymore for a Palestinian state with 359 00:19:56,000 --> 00:19:59,760 700,000 violent settlers in the West Bank. 360 00:19:59,960 --> 00:20:02,320 There is no room. Go and see the West Bank how it 361 00:20:02,320 --> 00:20:04,040 looks. It's like a Swiss cheese, right? 362 00:20:04,040 --> 00:20:06,160 Riddled. With even Swiss cheese is an 363 00:20:06,160 --> 00:20:10,160 exaggeration. They are governing this land. 364 00:20:10,360 --> 00:20:13,480 They are the the landlords of this region. 365 00:20:13,840 --> 00:20:17,000 So to believe that there will be a political force who is going 366 00:20:17,000 --> 00:20:19,760 to evacuating. You know what, if you tell me 367 00:20:19,760 --> 00:20:24,720 that this settlement is still possible, I'll be the first one 368 00:20:25,000 --> 00:20:28,800 not only to agree to be enthusiastic about it, because 369 00:20:28,800 --> 00:20:30,920 it is the most logical settlement. 370 00:20:31,120 --> 00:20:33,280 Two people share one piece of land. 371 00:20:33,480 --> 00:20:36,760 Let's share the land. What is more just and logical 372 00:20:36,760 --> 00:20:39,320 than this? The problem is that this is a 373 00:20:39,320 --> 00:20:43,440 train that left the station and if we don't realise it and we 374 00:20:43,440 --> 00:20:47,360 continue to speak about the two state solution, knowing that the 375 00:20:47,360 --> 00:20:51,320 on the shelf there is some solution, one day we use it so 376 00:20:51,320 --> 00:20:54,240 we can continue like this with the occupation forever. 377 00:20:54,680 --> 00:20:57,480 So, so you would say to someone like Keir Starmer, our Prime 378 00:20:57,480 --> 00:21:00,240 Minister, that to carry on talking about the two state 379 00:21:00,240 --> 00:21:03,920 solution as a viable option to strive towards is not just 380 00:21:03,920 --> 00:21:08,360 misguided, it actually provides a cover for this government here 381 00:21:08,560 --> 00:21:10,040 to carry on doing what they've been doing? 382 00:21:10,560 --> 00:21:13,640 Definitely, even if any else spoke about the two state 383 00:21:13,640 --> 00:21:16,040 solution many years ago. So what? 384 00:21:16,880 --> 00:21:19,560 You know, let's wait. But if there's no two state 385 00:21:19,560 --> 00:21:23,640 solution, what is the solution? The most simple 1 The democracy 386 00:21:23,640 --> 00:21:25,000 Have you heard about the democracy? 387 00:21:25,480 --> 00:21:27,520 I I can't what is that? Tell me so I'll. 388 00:21:27,520 --> 00:21:31,280 Tell you in a democracy they are equal rights, something very. 389 00:21:31,920 --> 00:21:35,280 One state. One person, one vote. 390 00:21:36,040 --> 00:21:39,520 I mean, what else? Look, the real choice right now 391 00:21:39,520 --> 00:21:41,960 is between an apartheid state or a democracy. 392 00:21:42,520 --> 00:21:46,480 In my view, there is no third way and we have to choose. 393 00:21:46,560 --> 00:21:50,720 And the international community, including your Prime Minister, 394 00:21:50,720 --> 00:21:52,240 has to choose. What do you prefer? 395 00:21:52,400 --> 00:21:54,640 An apartheid state or a democracy? 396 00:21:54,960 --> 00:21:58,240 All else is just hollow, hollow lip service. 397 00:21:58,240 --> 00:22:01,080 So I've met plenty of people in the West Bank and Ramallah who 398 00:22:01,080 --> 00:22:04,600 say exactly the same thing. And then you say to them, well, 399 00:22:05,040 --> 00:22:09,080 there's no way that the Jewish state that wants to be a 400 00:22:09,080 --> 00:22:11,160 majority Jewish state would ever agree to that. 401 00:22:11,160 --> 00:22:14,080 Because then you're into Christians of demography, who 402 00:22:14,080 --> 00:22:16,960 breeds more children, you know, who's the majority. 403 00:22:17,200 --> 00:22:20,640 And given the amount of enmity and tribal hatred that exists 404 00:22:20,640 --> 00:22:23,760 here, yeah, that may be as an ideal solution. 405 00:22:23,760 --> 00:22:26,560 But it's about as ideal as these umbrellas floating off into the 406 00:22:26,560 --> 00:22:27,960 sky. So what is the alternative? 407 00:22:29,240 --> 00:22:32,480 Well, the it's too dark to even mention, isn't it? 408 00:22:32,800 --> 00:22:34,520 And there are some people who are talking about it. 409 00:22:34,560 --> 00:22:38,680 If there is no alternative, I'm not ready to give up and to say 410 00:22:38,680 --> 00:22:42,320 there is no solution. Because all wars ended, all 411 00:22:42,320 --> 00:22:44,400 conflicts in history ended one day. 412 00:22:45,120 --> 00:22:48,400 Germany is today the best ally of Israel in Europe. 413 00:22:48,960 --> 00:22:53,600 Germany was 100 years ago the worst, worst enemy of the Jewish 414 00:22:53,600 --> 00:22:55,640 people. And who would believe that 415 00:22:55,640 --> 00:22:58,440 Germany within decades will become the best ally? 416 00:22:58,680 --> 00:23:01,360 Things are changing, Things are changing. 417 00:23:01,720 --> 00:23:04,760 You cannot judge the future according to the present. 418 00:23:05,040 --> 00:23:08,360 The present looks not very promising, I but at least we 419 00:23:08,360 --> 00:23:11,640 have a vision. If you say not a two state 420 00:23:11,640 --> 00:23:14,480 solution, not a one state solution, you, you remain with 421 00:23:14,480 --> 00:23:18,080 nothing, with living on the sword and getting killed every 422 00:23:18,280 --> 00:23:22,240 2-3 years another attack every two serious more killed people. 423 00:23:22,360 --> 00:23:25,280 Who wants to live this life? So to bring it back to events in 424 00:23:25,280 --> 00:23:29,360 Tehran, the war between Iran and Israel, if, if what you've just 425 00:23:29,440 --> 00:23:32,760 said is the reality, you know, the forever wars that would just 426 00:23:32,760 --> 00:23:36,680 go on and on and on and on. Does this war with Iran make any 427 00:23:36,680 --> 00:23:40,480 difference to that mindset and to that reality, whatever the 428 00:23:40,480 --> 00:23:43,240 outcome is there? For the short run, maybe. 429 00:23:43,240 --> 00:23:45,600 For the long run, not at all. What does it make? 430 00:23:45,840 --> 00:23:49,160 There will be another enemy. There will be another brutal 431 00:23:49,160 --> 00:23:52,840 tyranny which will want to exterminate Israel and there 432 00:23:52,840 --> 00:23:56,720 will be Israel who will continue to hold the occupation, hold the 433 00:23:56,720 --> 00:24:01,680 apartheid and and and do anything possible not to be 434 00:24:01,680 --> 00:24:05,680 accepted in this region. When I lived in Israel in 1989, 435 00:24:06,280 --> 00:24:08,360 you know, I covered the West Bank and the Gaza Strip and I 436 00:24:08,400 --> 00:24:10,320 was able to travel in and out very easily. 437 00:24:11,200 --> 00:24:14,920 And I was there was a. Taxi station 5 minutes away from 438 00:24:14,920 --> 00:24:17,880 here. You pay 10 shekels, which is 2 439 00:24:17,920 --> 00:24:21,240 lbs and you could go to Gaza in 45 minutes. 440 00:24:21,360 --> 00:24:23,440 It's just behind where we see for lunch. 441 00:24:23,560 --> 00:24:26,000 It's just behind the the place we see. 442 00:24:26,200 --> 00:24:29,440 But what I always said then to by by Palestinian and Israeli 443 00:24:29,440 --> 00:24:32,600 friends is that there are two people most alike in the region. 444 00:24:33,200 --> 00:24:35,880 And you're the two, right? You, you, you, you have smart 445 00:24:35,880 --> 00:24:38,040 education. No one else likes you. 446 00:24:38,040 --> 00:24:39,400 You know, there are Palestinians. 447 00:24:39,400 --> 00:24:42,800 They're not welcome in Kuwait or the Gulf States or in Jordan. 448 00:24:43,440 --> 00:24:46,360 You have a diaspora, you know, you have been shafted by 449 00:24:46,360 --> 00:24:48,280 history. You guys should get along with 450 00:24:48,280 --> 00:24:49,680 each other. And because, by the way, you're 451 00:24:49,680 --> 00:24:52,240 sharing the same real estate and there's only one bathroom and 452 00:24:52,240 --> 00:24:58,400 one kitchen hasn't worked out. Because of politics, because of 453 00:24:58,720 --> 00:25:01,480 megalomania of certain politicians in both sides. 454 00:25:01,480 --> 00:25:07,120 By the way, if you take it on the on the social framework or 455 00:25:07,120 --> 00:25:11,600 social network, you will be amazed how Palestinians and 456 00:25:11,600 --> 00:25:13,520 Israelis can find the common language. 457 00:25:13,840 --> 00:25:16,880 If you take two Palestinians from the same social background 458 00:25:17,040 --> 00:25:20,840 and two Israelis from the same social background and close them 459 00:25:20,840 --> 00:25:25,160 in a door in a in a room for for a while, they will find much 460 00:25:25,160 --> 00:25:27,920 more in common than an Israeli and a Britain. 461 00:25:29,160 --> 00:25:32,880 But getting back to the current war with Tehran, you know, we we 462 00:25:32,880 --> 00:25:37,200 say, well, that war, you know, ballistic missiles flying back 463 00:25:37,200 --> 00:25:40,640 and forth, that overshadows the other war that's been raging 464 00:25:40,640 --> 00:25:44,920 inside Gaza for 20 months. But I wonder whether that war in 465 00:25:44,920 --> 00:25:48,520 Gaza, which is about the survival of the Palestinians and 466 00:25:48,520 --> 00:25:52,680 the survival of the kind of state Israel wants to be, that 467 00:25:52,680 --> 00:25:55,560 is the actual war that needs to be sorted out. 468 00:25:55,800 --> 00:25:57,800 And all the other wars, including this big one at the 469 00:25:57,800 --> 00:26:00,440 moment with ballistic missiles. That's the sideshow. 470 00:26:00,720 --> 00:26:02,800 I couldn't agree more. I couldn't agree more. 471 00:26:02,920 --> 00:26:06,480 And by the way, Gaza is the real danger for the existence of 472 00:26:06,480 --> 00:26:10,200 Israel for the long run, because Gaza defines the nature of 473 00:26:10,200 --> 00:26:14,800 Israel, because Israel is defined but by but by, by what 474 00:26:14,800 --> 00:26:18,080 it is doing in Gaza. And Israel will become a prior 475 00:26:18,080 --> 00:26:22,080 state, not because of Iran, because the crimes in Gaza and 476 00:26:22,080 --> 00:26:27,520 Gaza is the key problem and nobody dares to solve it. 477 00:26:29,040 --> 00:26:32,760 We like to end ridiculous that this may sound under the current 478 00:26:32,760 --> 00:26:35,120 circumstances, with a kind of prediction because we are 479 00:26:35,440 --> 00:26:39,600 casting forward on the forecast. So what do you think will happen 480 00:26:39,600 --> 00:26:42,320 in the next weeks and months in Tehran? 481 00:26:43,120 --> 00:26:46,480 You see mate, it's the worst time to ask me this question 482 00:26:46,640 --> 00:26:49,200 because in two hours I might be wrong. 483 00:26:49,640 --> 00:26:52,760 It's really questionable. And this, this forecast has to 484 00:26:52,760 --> 00:26:54,920 survive for at least 24 hours. That's a. 485 00:26:54,960 --> 00:26:56,920 Problem OK. It all depends on and and. 486 00:26:56,920 --> 00:26:59,000 You might be wrong because President Trump might change his 487 00:26:59,000 --> 00:27:00,160 mind. That's what it comes down to. 488 00:27:00,520 --> 00:27:02,400 The question, the real question is now. 489 00:27:02,960 --> 00:27:10,280 If Donald Trump comes into the picture with his jets, then we 490 00:27:10,280 --> 00:27:14,560 might face a dramatic phase in this war which might end it very 491 00:27:14,560 --> 00:27:19,000 soon. Because if he bombs for do, we 492 00:27:19,000 --> 00:27:21,080 might see it ending very very soon. 493 00:27:21,480 --> 00:27:23,400 With the Ayatollah regime collapsing. 494 00:27:24,280 --> 00:27:26,240 It might include. It might include. 495 00:27:26,680 --> 00:27:30,200 What about the Iranian saying, you know, we really, really hate 496 00:27:30,200 --> 00:27:32,520 the ayatollahs, but we hate the Israelis even more? 497 00:27:32,840 --> 00:27:36,040 You get it now, you get it now. But maybe they will collapse 498 00:27:36,040 --> 00:27:38,960 because they will remain quite isolated, even more than they 499 00:27:38,960 --> 00:27:42,600 are today, and very weak. Because don't forget that this 500 00:27:42,600 --> 00:27:46,880 regime showed now its people that all those big stories about 501 00:27:46,880 --> 00:27:51,200 its strengths collapsed within five days. 502 00:27:51,640 --> 00:27:57,640 Iran, Can you believe that 200 Israeli jets can fly over Tehran 503 00:27:57,880 --> 00:28:00,520 freely and there's no defense system? 504 00:28:00,520 --> 00:28:04,480 Nothing, nothing, nothing. Like I like the last African 505 00:28:04,480 --> 00:28:06,320 state. I mean, how can it be? 506 00:28:07,400 --> 00:28:10,800 And the people see it and they say all those years, you spend 507 00:28:10,800 --> 00:28:15,680 it so much time and so much money, so many budgets in 508 00:28:15,680 --> 00:28:19,520 defending ourselves, in building this military power. 509 00:28:19,960 --> 00:28:24,120 And look, look what we got. Hundreds of thousands of people 510 00:28:24,120 --> 00:28:27,440 are leaving Tehran now without having any protection, nothing. 511 00:28:28,160 --> 00:28:31,440 So it might go to so many directions. 512 00:28:31,800 --> 00:28:37,200 And still, and this I insist, I still believe that everything 513 00:28:37,200 --> 00:28:39,880 will be worse than a diplomatic agreement. 514 00:28:40,160 --> 00:28:43,160 That's the only guarantee for a long future. 515 00:28:43,680 --> 00:28:47,920 All the rest is good for generals and politicians to show 516 00:28:47,920 --> 00:28:51,400 off, but it will not solve anything in any field. 517 00:28:52,720 --> 00:28:55,160 Gideon Levy, thank you very much indeed for coming in the 518 00:28:55,160 --> 00:28:57,200 programme. That's it from the forecast here 519 00:28:57,200 --> 00:28:58,760 in Tel Aviv. See you next time.