The real question is now. If Donald Trump comes into the
picture, then we might face a dramatic phase in this war which
might end it very soon. Why do you think Trump seems to
have changed his attitude? Because he smells an easy
victory. But on the other hand, someone
has to whisper in his ear that this can also end in a
catastrophe. When American soldiers will be
hurted, he will be committed to do something more.
He might send troops, 2 minutes later, the Russians might blink,
and here you are in a World War. Welcome to the special edition
of the Forecast from Tel Aviv, where of course a lot has been
going on. We had a rather busy night with
lots of air raid sirens. Again, the ballistic duel
between Israel and Iran continues.
And the big question hanging over all of this is what does
Donald Trump do next? He's been using the word we an
awful lot when talking about Israel's attempted possible
regime change, if that's what they want, possibly getting
involved to try and finally annihilate Iran's nuclear
program. But will the Americans get
involved? What are the consequences of
that? There's an awful lot to discuss
with me to do. So here's Gideon Levy, very well
known Israeli author, journalist, broadcaster and here
with me on the pavement. Good to see you, Gideon.
Good to see you mate. If you had to put money on it,
would you say the Americans are going to get involved?
Yes, on it. Look, I'm not going to he put
money on it because it all depends on some figure who is
not stable. He goes to sleep.
President. Sure.
Sure, sure. He goes to sleep with one idea,
he wakes up with another. I wouldn't put my money on
anything. And that's really the crucial
moment because would he decide to join?
We are in one game. Would he decide not to join?
We are in a totally different game.
I mean, you can't exaggerate how dramatic it is.
I have a theory which I'd like to test with you, which is that
the one of the reasons why he might get involved is that one,
this is low hanging fruit. The Iranians have already been
weakened anyway before this latest war started.
They seem to be in a weaker position now than before.
And he can. You'll probably find it quite
easy to get some credit from whatever's going to happen.
And secondly, all the other things that he's tried in his
pursuit of the Nobel Peace Prize haven't worked out, whether it's
Gaza, whether it's Ukraine. And here's one that he might
just think could work out. Yes and no.
On one hand you're right. Yes, it seems to be easy.
You just send few B2 or B52 and the problem is solved and Iran
is on its knees. But with such wars, you know how
they begin. You never know how will they
end. It might end in a fiasco.
You don't know how it will
develop. Yeah, Secondly.
Secondly, he is committed for not involving the Americans in
any dispute. Until a few days ago.
Exactly. So what will His base doesn't
want any involvement except of the lunatic evangelist who for
them the Jews are the chosen people and Israel is the chosen
land, except of those lunatics. The evangelical Christians.
The Christian Nationalists. Exactly, except of them.
There are a few millions, but except of them, his base doesn't
want it. Not only does his base not want
it, they're actually rebelling against it.
Steve Bannon on the record repeatedly day after day, saying
this is not what we signed up to.
Tulsi Gabbard, his own head of intelligence, saying to Congress
in March and repeating it just the other day.
There was no evidence to suggest that the Iran Iranians were very
close to actually developing a nuclear bomb, right?
So Piers Morgan. Piers Morgan, his supporter,
he's against. So why do you think, and it's
very hard to know the mind of Trump, why do you think Trump
seems to have changed his attitude towards getting
involved? Because he smells an easy
victory, which might not be easy and not a victory, but this is
what he smells. He smells an opportunity to do
something which will succeed after all the failures, but on
the other hand, someone has to whisper on his ear that this can
also end in a catastrophe. And therefore I think we
couldn't trust his judgment. He might change his mind in the
coming hours 10 times, OK, but the but the coming hours are
crucial. Right.
But we're not going to put money on whether he's going to go in
or not. You.
Can put money as much as you want.
Tiny and a tiny amount, but you're going to keep yours.
I keep. OK.
All right. I guess I have more less than
you, so I have to be more. Helpful possibly discuss that in
this podcast. OK.
So the other thing is you say you know it could be
catastrophic. What does that catastrophic
scenario look like to you think? About Vietnam, Think about
Afghanistan, think about Iraq. Libya.
Think about Israel starting a
war in Lebanon in 82. Think about Israel starting this
war in Gaza, which doesn't seem to end ever.
You start it and you don't know, OK, they will bomb Fodu and then
they might hit back, including American bases.
When American soldiers will be hurted.
He will be committed to do something more.
He might send troops. 2 minutes later the Russians might blink
and here you are in a World War. I mean, it is so explosive that
I wouldn't gamble on on on a, on a guaranteed victory here.
Because the number of wars that start or where people get
involved thinking it's over by Christmas or maybe by Labour Day
and then it isn't, you know, there are too many of them to
mention in this. Give me one example, at least in
the Middle East, of a war which led to real good achievements.
I can tell you about Israel's war.
None of them, including the Six Day War, didn't lead Israel to a
better place. None of them.
But from Netanyahu's point of view, right, you've got a
government, a regime in Iran that is, you know, openly vowed
to achieve the destruction of the state of Israel.
Israel does not have the right to exist.
And there's this constant threat of nuclear capability hanging
over that threat. Even if they don't, even if
they're not close to developing a bomb, they might do.
From his point of view, this is a legacy issue.
And he would say one that actually could achieve, you
know, a more peaceful future for this country.
Totally, totally. Is he right?
No, he is totally right by claiming that that's his life
project. It is his life project and
therefore I really believe that he does it with some genuine
face that he's doing the right thing.
He believes in what he's doing here.
This is not just in chancing it right.
Not only this, and it's not all those cynical consideration his
his trial, his coalition. No, no, now he does it because
he feels he's doing an historic step.
The only problem is that, with all the respect to his judgment,
this historic step might become also an historic fiasco for
Israel. And it might not.
It might not, but I cannot gamble and I don't think it's
needed because there is still the alternative of getting back
to the negotiation table and I would always prefer diplomacy
over mass killing. Why do you think Benjamin
Netanyahu is so obsessed with the issue of Iran 'cause he's
been talking about it ever since he appeared on the political
stage. More than any other issue, he,
and does he see this as his big legacy as an Israeli leader in
the kind of pantheon of history? More than this, he yesterday
spoke about it in an interview. He was brought up in a certain
atmosphere. His father was a well known
historian and he was brought up, like many Israelis, under this
heavy, heavy cloud of the Holocaust, which should never
come again. Now, for those people, any small
threats turns into a Holocaust, a second Holocaust.
And therefore any small threat justify any reaction because we
went through the Holocaust, because it shouldn't happen
again. So his mindset is a very
nationalistic mindset of someone who all the time is sure and
convinced that he's just few metres from from extermination,
that the Jewish people or the Jewish state is just few weeks
from extermination, which is not the case.
But is that a mindset that is shared by the majority of the
public here? The brainwashed system of Israel
is working on it and therefore it's getting, it's getting to a
majority. Absolutely.
We are brainwashed here systematically to believe that
we are the chosen people to believe that they are.
We are the biggest victory, biggest victim in history.
And therefore, because of those two reasons, we have the right
to do whatever we want. That's the mindset.
Of all the wars that Israel has fought, you know, and there are
quite a few wars that has fought just in the last 20 months,
obviously against Hamas, but also others.
Is this the most popular so far? Is there real support for this
on the streets of? No doubt, No doubt about it.
Israel is fearful with a very, very heavy cloud over our heads.
But the support to Netanyahu jumped within hours.
It can also fall within hours. But right now, when it seems as
a as a victory, when it seems as a success story.
And again, we are five days after the beginning, six days
after the beginning, they all the walls that Israel launched
started wonderfully and very soon later came the price and
the price was unbearable. Let's see and wait.
Right now it seems to most of the Israelis the right thing to
do, and many even change their mind about Netanyahu and see him
now as the the Messiah. It seems to be that for
Netanyahu and many people in Israel, every problem is a nail
and every solution is a hammer. I mean, is that true?
And does it need to be like that?
I would phrase it differently. I would phrase that for Israel,
launching a war is always the first priority.
Launching a war is. Always the first priority.
The second one will be diplomacy, right?
And it should be the opposite. Shoot.
Shoot first, ask questions later.
Absolutely, and negotiate even later.
Has that worked for Israel? Look at Israel.
I mean Israel is now in its worst situation ever, a pariah
state with a broken society, with a society fatigue.
This UK you call a success story, it was a success story in
its establishment. But when you see now, look at
the mood of Israelis, they are really looking for another
passport and I'll take it away. This is not normal life and
normal society. You've witnessed, you know,
quite a few wars of this country.
You live here in Tel Aviv. How has the soul of Israel
changed over these years, with every war as a milestone?
I think the main milestone recently is the 7th of October.
The 7th of October took the Israelis out of the closet, at
least the racist, the nationalist and those who were
vague. They are now out of the closet,
declared racist and nationalist, who think that the Palestinians
have no rights in this piece of land, who think that Israel has
the right to do whatever it want.
Because of the 7th of October, it also changed many mindsets,
mainly of the left or the Zionist left or the central left
who used to have a dream or a plan to make peace with the
Palestinians. They all retreated.
Now they don't believe in any kind of agreement with the
Palestinians. Even some of my good friends,
yeah, they all think that the 7th of October changed anything.
You know, ever since then Israel committed 107th of October in
Gaza and this they don't realize.
And why didn't they realize that?
Because there is a brainwash system in Israel which prevent
them to realize it. Because the Israeli media is
collaborating, not with the government, not with any
censorship which doesn't almost doesn't exist, which the need to
please the viewers and the, and the readers with the need to for
rating and, and and and and selling newspapers.
And they know very well the Israelis don't want to know.
And they know nothing about Gaza.
And every Israeli take, even the most intelligent one, I'm always
shocked how little they know about Gaza.
I can tell you that any anyone in the suburb of Sheffield in
the UK knows more about Gaza. So more about Gaza than an
intellectual in Tel Aviv. Is that because they don't want
to know anything about Gaza or because they're not shown
anything about Gaza and they can't be bothered to look?
Both, both, both. It goes together because if you
really want to see, there's so many outlets that you can see
you don't want to see, and the Israeli media enables you the
luxury of not knowing and not seeing and not be troubled.
I mean, I have to say that in this part of Tel Aviv, which I
know we're surrounded by Palestinian buildings and the
ghosts of the people who used to live in these buildings, they're
still somewhere around us. You go to the beach.
It feels like the South of France.
I mean, the beach is full even when, you know, just before and
after a siren, people are tossing volleyballs, playing
football, having a great time. And an hour's drive down the
road is Gaza. It's a different kind of beach.
This has always slightly freaked me out, I have to say, even
though I've been guilty of the occasional swim.
Look, on one hand, people are very proud that Israel continues
to live its life. The resilience.
The resilience for me, it is really a moral disease.
A moral illness. How can you?
How dare you when one hour away from here there were 1000 babies
slaughtered in the last 20 months, 1000 babies less than
one year. And it doesn't concern you.
It is the friends of your sons and the sons of your friends who
did it. And it doesn't concern you that
troubles you. You don't feel any kind of
accountability, guilt, blame, something, nothing.
And even those people and you mentioned some of them were your
friends who might have felt guilt and blame about this in
the past, who might have believed in A2 state solution in
the past. No longer do.
Absolutely. They all believe in any
settlement. They believe on living on the
sword forever. They believe only in wars, in
aggression, in military steps, nothing but it because they say
the Palestinians are not partners for anything.
But this is, this city doesn't feel like a martial society,
even though lots of people go to war and they, they put on their
uniform, they do military service.
It feels, you know, it's got a very sort of shortagey vibe
about it. I mean, it's, it's funky, it's
cool. They'd eat good food.
They go to restaurants, they go to bars.
You know, if the shops were open, they'd be dancing all
night long. It doesn't feel like a
militarised society, even though it is.
So I can't I can't square that circle.
It's very easy to square this circle.
Did you see one demonstration against the war here?
Against the war, not for the hostages, not against Netanyahu,
against the crimes of the war? No one, nothing.
Do you think that the people here are aware to what we are
doing in Gaza, one hour away from here?
No. So living in the living in
denial is not something that any intelligent person should
appreciate. On one end you say, yeah, this
you live only once, let them live the normal life.
But you don't have the right to live your normal life because
you create an abnormal reality one hour away from here, and
therefore we don't have the right to live normal lives now.
Do you think the people of this city and this country care more
about what happens to the citizens of Tehran than what
happens to people in Gaza? No, no, no, no, no.
By all means. No, no, no, no, no, no.
They don't care about anyone who is not Jewish.
The the the scope of our morality is a long, very clear
nationalistic lines. We care only about what happens
to Israel, to Israelis, and mainly to Jewish Israelis.
If you phrase it like that, the question of the outcome of this
particular conflict with Iran is overshadowed by a much bigger
question, isn't it? The question of the future of
the state of Israel, its viability as a democratic state,
its existence not because of what enemies are trying to do to
it, but what it might do to itself?
Is that a fairpoint? It's not only a fairpoint, You
underestimated it. Can you really define Israel as
a democracy? Yes, Israel is democracy, even
the liberal democracy for Jewish citizens.
You have Free Press. You have free and fair
elections. Free speech.
I'm the best. I'm the best.
They. Don't like you very much, do
they? They.
Don't. But they, they let me talk at
least at least to certain extent, because I'm totally bent
on Israeli TV. Ever since this war started, I
used to be often on TV. Not anymore, but no problems.
That's not, I'm not the victim of this war, but how can you be
a democracy when 5 million people are living under your
brutal tyranny in the West Bank and in other way in Gaza?
How can this be defined? It's part of Israel.
It is part and. Part of Israel.
It is the factor part of Israel and it is part of Israel because
the government in Jerusalem decides their fate and no other,
no one else. The The government in Jerusalem
defines the fate of the people in Gaza and they they decide the
fate of the people in The West Wing.
And do you think that this government, with President
Trump, you know, as their support act in the White House
is closer, as many had predicted, to formalising that
relationship to annexing the West Bank, to annexing the Gaza
Strip? I must tell you, it's for me.
It's a minor question. The West Bank is an excited.
Long time ago. Long time ago.
Go to the West Bank. You see any difference?
It's an apartheid region. Definitely cannot be defined
otherwise. But for Jews, what's the
difference about being in the West Bank or in Tel Aviv?
Same law, same currency, everything and same rule.
Would you then say to the Palestinian people and to their
supporters, you know, in the UK and around the Middle East, the
dream of a palace in an independent, sovereign
Palestinian nation state, let us be clear, is finished.
I'm. Hesitating because they really
deserve a Palestinian state they really deserve.
The reality. I'm not talking about what they
deserve, of course they deserve that, but the reality.
More than this, continuing to talk about the two state
solution place to the hands of the occupation.
Why? Because everyone knows that
there there is no room anymore for a Palestinian state with
700,000 violent settlers in the West Bank.
There is no room. Go and see the West Bank how it
looks. It's like a Swiss cheese, right?
Riddled. With even Swiss cheese is an
exaggeration. They are governing this land.
They are the the landlords of this region.
So to believe that there will be a political force who is going
to evacuating. You know what, if you tell me
that this settlement is still possible, I'll be the first one
not only to agree to be enthusiastic about it, because
it is the most logical settlement.
Two people share one piece of land.
Let's share the land. What is more just and logical
than this? The problem is that this is a
train that left the station and if we don't realise it and we
continue to speak about the two state solution, knowing that the
on the shelf there is some solution, one day we use it so
we can continue like this with the occupation forever.
So, so you would say to someone like Keir Starmer, our Prime
Minister, that to carry on talking about the two state
solution as a viable option to strive towards is not just
misguided, it actually provides a cover for this government here
to carry on doing what they've been doing?
Definitely, even if any else spoke about the two state
solution many years ago. So what?
You know, let's wait. But if there's no two state
solution, what is the solution? The most simple 1 The democracy
Have you heard about the democracy?
I I can't what is that? Tell me so I'll.
Tell you in a democracy they are equal rights, something very.
One state. One person, one vote.
I mean, what else? Look, the real choice right now
is between an apartheid state or a democracy.
In my view, there is no third way and we have to choose.
And the international community, including your Prime Minister,
has to choose. What do you prefer?
An apartheid state or a democracy?
All else is just hollow, hollow lip service.
So I've met plenty of people in the West Bank and Ramallah who
say exactly the same thing. And then you say to them, well,
there's no way that the Jewish state that wants to be a
majority Jewish state would ever agree to that.
Because then you're into Christians of demography, who
breeds more children, you know, who's the majority.
And given the amount of enmity and tribal hatred that exists
here, yeah, that may be as an ideal solution.
But it's about as ideal as these umbrellas floating off into the
sky. So what is the alternative?
Well, the it's too dark to even mention, isn't it?
And there are some people who are talking about it.
If there is no alternative, I'm not ready to give up and to say
there is no solution. Because all wars ended, all
conflicts in history ended one day.
Germany is today the best ally of Israel in Europe.
Germany was 100 years ago the worst, worst enemy of the Jewish
people. And who would believe that
Germany within decades will become the best ally?
Things are changing, Things are changing.
You cannot judge the future according to the present.
The present looks not very promising, I but at least we
have a vision. If you say not a two state
solution, not a one state solution, you, you remain with
nothing, with living on the sword and getting killed every
2-3 years another attack every two serious more killed people.
Who wants to live this life? So to bring it back to events in
Tehran, the war between Iran and Israel, if, if what you've just
said is the reality, you know, the forever wars that would just
go on and on and on and on. Does this war with Iran make any
difference to that mindset and to that reality, whatever the
outcome is there? For the short run, maybe.
For the long run, not at all. What does it make?
There will be another enemy. There will be another brutal
tyranny which will want to exterminate Israel and there
will be Israel who will continue to hold the occupation, hold the
apartheid and and and do anything possible not to be
accepted in this region. When I lived in Israel in 1989,
you know, I covered the West Bank and the Gaza Strip and I
was able to travel in and out very easily.
And I was there was a. Taxi station 5 minutes away from
here. You pay 10 shekels, which is 2
lbs and you could go to Gaza in 45 minutes.
It's just behind where we see for lunch.
It's just behind the the place we see.
But what I always said then to by by Palestinian and Israeli
friends is that there are two people most alike in the region.
And you're the two, right? You, you, you, you have smart
education. No one else likes you.
You know, there are Palestinians.
They're not welcome in Kuwait or the Gulf States or in Jordan.
You have a diaspora, you know, you have been shafted by
history. You guys should get along with
each other. And because, by the way, you're
sharing the same real estate and there's only one bathroom and
one kitchen hasn't worked out. Because of politics, because of
megalomania of certain politicians in both sides.
By the way, if you take it on the on the social framework or
social network, you will be amazed how Palestinians and
Israelis can find the common language.
If you take two Palestinians from the same social background
and two Israelis from the same social background and close them
in a door in a in a room for for a while, they will find much
more in common than an Israeli and a Britain.
But getting back to the current war with Tehran, you know, we we
say, well, that war, you know, ballistic missiles flying back
and forth, that overshadows the other war that's been raging
inside Gaza for 20 months. But I wonder whether that war in
Gaza, which is about the survival of the Palestinians and
the survival of the kind of state Israel wants to be, that
is the actual war that needs to be sorted out.
And all the other wars, including this big one at the
moment with ballistic missiles. That's the sideshow.
I couldn't agree more. I couldn't agree more.
And by the way, Gaza is the real danger for the existence of
Israel for the long run, because Gaza defines the nature of
Israel, because Israel is defined but by but by, by what
it is doing in Gaza. And Israel will become a prior
state, not because of Iran, because the crimes in Gaza and
Gaza is the key problem and nobody dares to solve it.
We like to end ridiculous that this may sound under the current
circumstances, with a kind of prediction because we are
casting forward on the forecast. So what do you think will happen
in the next weeks and months in Tehran?
You see mate, it's the worst time to ask me this question
because in two hours I might be wrong.
It's really questionable. And this, this forecast has to
survive for at least 24 hours. That's a.
Problem OK. It all depends on and and.
You might be wrong because President Trump might change his
mind. That's what it comes down to.
The question, the real question is now.
If Donald Trump comes into the picture with his jets, then we
might face a dramatic phase in this war which might end it very
soon. Because if he bombs for do, we
might see it ending very very soon.
With the Ayatollah regime collapsing.
It might include. It might include.
What about the Iranian saying, you know, we really, really hate
the ayatollahs, but we hate the Israelis even more?
You get it now, you get it now. But maybe they will collapse
because they will remain quite isolated, even more than they
are today, and very weak. Because don't forget that this
regime showed now its people that all those big stories about
its strengths collapsed within five days.
Iran, Can you believe that 200 Israeli jets can fly over Tehran
freely and there's no defense system?
Nothing, nothing, nothing. Like I like the last African
state. I mean, how can it be?
And the people see it and they say all those years, you spend
it so much time and so much money, so many budgets in
defending ourselves, in building this military power.
And look, look what we got. Hundreds of thousands of people
are leaving Tehran now without having any protection, nothing.
So it might go to so many directions.
And still, and this I insist, I still believe that everything
will be worse than a diplomatic agreement.
That's the only guarantee for a long future.
All the rest is good for generals and politicians to show
off, but it will not solve anything in any field.
Gideon Levy, thank you very much indeed for coming in the
programme. That's it from the forecast here
in Tel Aviv. See you next time.