1 00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:02,040 Could the Conservative Party cease to exist? 2 00:00:02,040 --> 00:00:03,280 Yes. Oh, absolutely, yes. 3 00:00:03,400 --> 00:00:05,000 Yes or no, I think it will continue. 4 00:00:05,000 --> 00:00:07,760 To I think it's, but it's completely profound, the crisis 5 00:00:07,960 --> 00:00:12,920 and as the party has moved steadily to the right, so things 6 00:00:12,920 --> 00:00:15,680 have got worse and worse. Liz Cross isn't here as far as 7 00:00:15,680 --> 00:00:17,560 we know, unless Therese corrects me. 8 00:00:17,600 --> 00:00:19,400 Does she want a defective reform? 9 00:00:19,680 --> 00:00:21,400 I don't believe that's the case at all. 10 00:00:21,480 --> 00:00:22,880 Would you like to? Do you fancy it? 11 00:00:23,200 --> 00:00:26,600 No, I know it's probably the most ridiculous question you've 12 00:00:26,600 --> 00:00:29,080 ever asked. Every senior conservative you 13 00:00:29,080 --> 00:00:32,640 speak to here in the bars, at the parties says that they think 14 00:00:32,640 --> 00:00:35,760 Kemi Bade not will be out by December, by May, or certainly 15 00:00:35,760 --> 00:00:37,760 before the general election. How long does Kemi Bade not 16 00:00:37,840 --> 00:00:43,240 have? Hello and welcome to the 17 00:00:43,240 --> 00:00:45,200 forecast. We're in Manchester for the 18 00:00:45,200 --> 00:00:48,200 Conservative Party conference where Kemi Badnock is fighting 19 00:00:48,200 --> 00:00:50,880 for her political life. She's making two speeches, a 20 00:00:50,880 --> 00:00:54,120 Blizzard of policy announcements less than a year after winning 21 00:00:54,120 --> 00:00:57,960 the leadership, and urging her party to regroup after it cycled 22 00:00:57,960 --> 00:01:00,000 through 5 leaders in eight years. 23 00:01:00,000 --> 00:01:03,280 But few here believe that she will survive much longer. 24 00:01:03,600 --> 00:01:06,280 Joining me to discuss all of this, Lord Daniel Finkelstein 25 00:01:06,280 --> 00:01:09,560 and Baroness Teres Coffee. We'll be asking how long can 26 00:01:09,560 --> 00:01:11,760 Badnock last? Who could replace her? 27 00:01:11,920 --> 00:01:15,400 And is a pact with Reform now the Tory Party's best hope? 28 00:01:15,920 --> 00:01:19,920 Well, Denny Finkelstein has been a Blizzard of policy 29 00:01:19,920 --> 00:01:23,160 announcement, hasn't it? ECHR welfare, this and that. 30 00:01:23,160 --> 00:01:26,840 I mean, we were promised nothing until 2027, A period of 31 00:01:26,840 --> 00:01:27,880 thinking. What happened? 32 00:01:28,000 --> 00:01:30,080 Well, I think they do need to make some sort of impact. 33 00:01:30,320 --> 00:01:32,960 They, they, people want to think you've thought your policies 34 00:01:32,960 --> 00:01:34,600 through, but you can't wait forever. 35 00:01:34,880 --> 00:01:38,600 And I did think actually both main parties made a mistake 36 00:01:39,160 --> 00:01:42,240 leaving the summer completely to Nigel Farage, who was able to 37 00:01:42,440 --> 00:01:44,640 make quite a big impact during that period. 38 00:01:45,200 --> 00:01:48,280 You can't really do that. So I maybe the experience of 39 00:01:48,280 --> 00:01:50,000 that made her move a bit quicker. 40 00:01:50,240 --> 00:01:51,880 But there's another reason, which is if you're going to do 41 00:01:51,880 --> 00:01:55,920 the ECHR policy, you don't really want to be arguing about 42 00:01:55,920 --> 00:01:59,040 that during the run up to the general election. 43 00:01:59,040 --> 00:02:00,960 You want to move on to the economy if you can. 44 00:02:01,400 --> 00:02:03,760 And So what you want to do, and a bit like William Hague did 45 00:02:03,880 --> 00:02:06,800 immediately after you got elected on Europe, which is try 46 00:02:06,800 --> 00:02:09,479 to see whether you can discipline the party behind a 47 00:02:09,479 --> 00:02:12,880 single policy and then move on from it, whether that will prove 48 00:02:13,200 --> 00:02:16,320 actually possible. But I understand, I understand 49 00:02:16,320 --> 00:02:17,920 the timing issues at least right? 50 00:02:18,040 --> 00:02:20,480 But I mean, they're also talking about the economy and cutting 51 00:02:20,480 --> 00:02:24,440 benefits, basically ripping off reforms policy word for word. 52 00:02:24,680 --> 00:02:26,160 It's a bit panicked, isn't it Therese? 53 00:02:27,200 --> 00:02:28,280 I didn't think it's panicked at all. 54 00:02:28,280 --> 00:02:30,680 I think they've gone through a lot of detailed work and 55 00:02:30,840 --> 00:02:32,800 actually some of what's been mentioned today. 56 00:02:33,560 --> 00:02:36,680 Helen Wheatley spoke about this a few months ago. 57 00:02:36,680 --> 00:02:41,760 So if nothing else, I think how can I put it, reforms seem to be 58 00:02:41,760 --> 00:02:45,880 just picking up almost like a bingo calls as without actually 59 00:02:45,880 --> 00:02:48,080 having done the work and the detail behind it. 60 00:02:48,600 --> 00:02:52,120 So in terms of I think the timing is right to use 61 00:02:52,120 --> 00:02:56,560 conference to start to do some significant policy 62 00:02:56,800 --> 00:03:01,120 pronouncements. And for example, David Wolfson, 63 00:03:01,120 --> 00:03:03,280 we know him in the House of Lords. 64 00:03:03,280 --> 00:03:06,520 He's a respected guy. He's done a lot of work. 65 00:03:07,440 --> 00:03:09,600 Whether or not everybody will agree with him or not, that's a 66 00:03:09,600 --> 00:03:12,880 different story. But nevertheless, that's still 67 00:03:13,520 --> 00:03:17,680 shows the depth that Kemi and her team are going through in 68 00:03:17,680 --> 00:03:21,120 order to come up with, you know, justifying and affect their 69 00:03:21,120 --> 00:03:23,200 decisions. I think also we've got to avoid 70 00:03:23,200 --> 00:03:26,880 kind of like journalistic overlay of kind of like, let's 71 00:03:26,920 --> 00:03:30,120 let me give you an example, Ed Miliband sandwich, right? 72 00:03:30,200 --> 00:03:33,960 You just take a sandwich. Everyone used it as a narrative 73 00:03:34,000 --> 00:03:36,160 to tell a story about Ed Miliband not being very 74 00:03:36,160 --> 00:03:38,240 appealing to the electorate. And there was David Miliband and 75 00:03:38,240 --> 00:03:39,160 the banana. Exactly. 76 00:03:39,160 --> 00:03:40,720 And that was exactly the same thing. 77 00:03:40,720 --> 00:03:43,520 There was nothing wrong with it whatsoever in either incident. 78 00:03:43,920 --> 00:03:48,160 So the word panic or they're copying reform, reform. 79 00:03:48,160 --> 00:03:50,680 If reform and the conservatives have announced the same policy. 80 00:03:50,880 --> 00:03:53,200 The right question is, is this a good idea? 81 00:03:53,800 --> 00:03:56,200 We're overlaying split though we're over. 82 00:03:56,320 --> 00:03:58,680 Well, that's a that that we can come on to whether it's. 83 00:03:58,680 --> 00:04:00,400 A good idea? Well, is it, is it a good idea? 84 00:04:00,560 --> 00:04:03,680 Because there are splits on the ECHR, on welfare, on, on all 85 00:04:03,720 --> 00:04:04,200 sorts of. People. 86 00:04:04,200 --> 00:04:09,480 So I, I'm pretty sympathetic to the welfare policies actually. 87 00:04:09,480 --> 00:04:13,360 I think in general you have to save money on welfare and we've 88 00:04:13,360 --> 00:04:16,120 also got to have a, a welfare system which people feel is 89 00:04:16,120 --> 00:04:18,279 reciprocal. I paid in, therefore I got out. 90 00:04:18,640 --> 00:04:22,600 So I think looking at the migration issue and welfare at 91 00:04:22,600 --> 00:04:24,560 the same time, that's not a bad idea. 92 00:04:24,560 --> 00:04:27,280 You won't save lots of money during that, but I think people 93 00:04:27,440 --> 00:04:29,120 it will help the fairness of the system. 94 00:04:29,440 --> 00:04:31,800 On the ECHR. I've never been supportive of 95 00:04:32,240 --> 00:04:37,840 leaving, not because I'm actually hugely ideological 96 00:04:37,840 --> 00:04:41,240 about it, but I just question whether the wrench from the 97 00:04:41,240 --> 00:04:44,560 international system is worth the gain on migration. 98 00:04:44,680 --> 00:04:46,200 So my view is yeah. I mean, it won't make much 99 00:04:46,240 --> 00:04:48,600 difference, says David Gore for. A conservative I think that 100 00:04:48,600 --> 00:04:50,840 argument that's the argument that that I find most 101 00:04:50,840 --> 00:04:54,400 persuasive. Look my my view is the world 102 00:04:55,360 --> 00:04:59,080 community of of people who are with small our Liberal Democrats 103 00:04:59,280 --> 00:05:03,200 has got to get a grip on migration and I am willing to be 104 00:05:03,200 --> 00:05:07,480 supportive of anything even things that I'd previously be 105 00:05:08,120 --> 00:05:12,160 hovering over and big amendments to the refugee convention, for 106 00:05:12,160 --> 00:05:15,840 example to get a grip on this. I'm just not absolutely clear 107 00:05:15,840 --> 00:05:18,560 this would I? I think the proportion of our 108 00:05:18,560 --> 00:05:22,840 illegal immigration cases that are genuinely being held up by 109 00:05:22,840 --> 00:05:25,800 the Human Rights Act and the ECHR is small. 110 00:05:26,000 --> 00:05:28,800 I think there's a chance the Conservative Party will will 111 00:05:28,800 --> 00:05:31,040 have difficulties uniting over it. 112 00:05:31,040 --> 00:05:34,400 But more than that, I think the electorate, despite wanting 113 00:05:35,640 --> 00:05:40,880 migration to be dealt with, might actually balk at very big 114 00:05:40,880 --> 00:05:42,840 radical change. People are quite loss averse. 115 00:05:42,840 --> 00:05:46,080 So I'm not sure from either a political or a policy point of 116 00:05:46,080 --> 00:05:48,160 view that it's the right the right policy. 117 00:05:49,760 --> 00:05:53,040 If I think back, Theresa May in 2016 said she'd rather leave the 118 00:05:53,040 --> 00:05:59,280 ECHR than leave the EU and she's no soft touch on a lot of this 119 00:05:59,280 --> 00:06:02,640 stuff. So I think there's been merit at 120 00:06:02,640 --> 00:06:06,480 investigating it and that's why I think David Wilson work is 121 00:06:06,480 --> 00:06:10,000 being useful for people who are concerned more generally about 122 00:06:10,560 --> 00:06:12,400 significant change in institutions. 123 00:06:12,720 --> 00:06:16,400 But there's no doubt that legal judgements made not just in the 124 00:06:16,400 --> 00:06:21,600 UK but at the ECHR level, are getting further and further away 125 00:06:21,600 --> 00:06:23,120 from what was supposed to be the basis. 126 00:06:23,920 --> 00:06:26,080 Former Lord Chancellor He was writing in The Times this 127 00:06:26,080 --> 00:06:28,440 morning about the tiny proportion of cases that have 128 00:06:28,440 --> 00:06:30,600 actually been affected by the ECHR. 129 00:06:30,600 --> 00:06:34,240 I'm not an ideologue about either the Human Rights Act or 130 00:06:34,240 --> 00:06:38,600 the ECHRI, think both of those things are are pragmatic 131 00:06:38,600 --> 00:06:40,480 matters. First of all, I don't think it's 132 00:06:40,480 --> 00:06:43,720 a big it's a solution to this problem. 133 00:06:43,720 --> 00:06:47,280 Secondly, it would be better if you're if we could have a 134 00:06:47,280 --> 00:06:50,360 European wide solution. So I think the right position 135 00:06:50,360 --> 00:06:53,520 for the Conservative Party would be to put pressure on the 136 00:06:53,520 --> 00:06:57,560 government to engage, which it doesn't do in big negotiation 137 00:06:57,560 --> 00:06:59,160 about it. But I'm dubious so. 138 00:06:59,320 --> 00:07:00,960 You're sounding like you're sounding like a member of the 139 00:07:00,960 --> 00:07:02,400 Labour government, I must say, But we'll come on. 140 00:07:02,400 --> 00:07:03,480 No, I'm not. I'm not. 141 00:07:03,600 --> 00:07:05,920 I'm not asking this that's. Not that's not true at all. 142 00:07:06,080 --> 00:07:09,240 Sorry, No, that isn't true because I'm, I'm highly critical 143 00:07:09,240 --> 00:07:14,800 of their failure to lead international efforts to change 144 00:07:14,800 --> 00:07:17,920 the Human Rights Act and, and, and the ECHR. 145 00:07:17,920 --> 00:07:24,080 So, but you know, I'm not afraid of being said to have a position 146 00:07:24,080 --> 00:07:26,440 that might be the same as Shabana Mahmood on something. 147 00:07:26,600 --> 00:07:29,920 Liz Cross isn't here as far as we know, unless Therese corrects 148 00:07:29,920 --> 00:07:31,960 me. Is she? 149 00:07:32,360 --> 00:07:34,120 Do you think she might defect her reform or would she not? 150 00:07:34,160 --> 00:07:37,040 Be welcome if Nigel Farage wouldn't accept her because, and 151 00:07:37,040 --> 00:07:40,120 I'll tell you what he'll do if she tries to do this, not that 152 00:07:40,400 --> 00:07:43,080 you'll know much, much better. So you'll know whether she would 153 00:07:43,080 --> 00:07:45,080 do this. But Nigel Farage will say I'm 154 00:07:45,080 --> 00:07:49,440 not accepting somebody who thinks that Tommy Robinson is is 155 00:07:49,440 --> 00:07:51,960 unacceptably demonised. So he'll use that. 156 00:07:51,960 --> 00:07:52,960 What? She said in AUS. 157 00:07:53,080 --> 00:07:57,760 Podcast she did and it's she'll use that Liz was somebody that I 158 00:07:57,760 --> 00:08:06,120 actually liked a lot and I I find her public contributions 159 00:08:06,120 --> 00:08:08,720 since she's lost Alicia completely baffling behaviour to 160 00:08:08,720 --> 00:08:09,600 be. Honest, she doesn't the dark 161 00:08:09,600 --> 00:08:10,280 side. Hasn't she? 162 00:08:10,280 --> 00:08:12,960 Well, you know, look, it depends whether the people have will 163 00:08:12,960 --> 00:08:14,640 have their own view about whether it's dark side or not, 164 00:08:14,640 --> 00:08:15,440 obviously. Well. 165 00:08:15,800 --> 00:08:20,000 All right, I'm well, as far as I'm concerned, yes, being the 166 00:08:20,000 --> 00:08:23,360 ally of Steve Bannon and and normalising Tommy Robinson is 167 00:08:23,360 --> 00:08:28,000 the dark side, definitely. And I find that bewildering 168 00:08:28,000 --> 00:08:31,640 position for a Conservative who was senior enough to be the 169 00:08:31,640 --> 00:08:34,960 leader of the party to take. So I'm very I'm, I'm dismayed by 170 00:08:34,960 --> 00:08:37,080 it in the extreme. And but I don't think that I 171 00:08:37,080 --> 00:08:39,480 think that Nigel Farage wouldn't accept her because he'd know 172 00:08:39,480 --> 00:08:41,480 what he was important. Does she want to defect to? 173 00:08:41,559 --> 00:08:43,760 Reform. I don't believe that's the case 174 00:08:43,760 --> 00:08:44,360 at all. Have you? 175 00:08:44,480 --> 00:08:46,880 Spoken to her about it. I don't need to speak to her 176 00:08:46,880 --> 00:08:48,680 about it. She won't be defecting to reform 177 00:08:48,680 --> 00:08:51,080 so. Would you like to? 178 00:08:51,080 --> 00:08:55,120 Do you fancy it? No, honestly, it's probably the 179 00:08:55,120 --> 00:08:56,720 most ridiculous question you've ever asked. 180 00:08:57,040 --> 00:09:00,080 So you are Tory till the. Last breath, right? 181 00:09:00,680 --> 00:09:03,040 Through and through. I grew up in Liverpool, there 182 00:09:03,040 --> 00:09:05,080 was a little girl. I did have a Conservative MP. 183 00:09:05,080 --> 00:09:07,560 You haven't. Quite answered the question. 184 00:09:07,600 --> 00:09:09,680 What? Will you remain A Tory until 185 00:09:09,680 --> 00:09:12,520 you're dying breath? Yeah, right. 186 00:09:12,520 --> 00:09:14,320 Of course. I mean, a lot of your colleagues 187 00:09:14,320 --> 00:09:17,800 are considering following the team Dory's, you know, I mean 188 00:09:17,800 --> 00:09:19,520 like Danny. Kruger, there's a brilliant 189 00:09:19,520 --> 00:09:21,920 sentence. A lot of our colleagues, a lot 190 00:09:21,920 --> 00:09:23,720 of our colleagues are not considering following the team. 191 00:09:23,760 --> 00:09:26,640 Torres, Danny. Kruger, I went on to say. 192 00:09:28,320 --> 00:09:30,640 Well, Jane Berry, Danny, So it's a very interesting question, one 193 00:09:30,640 --> 00:09:32,800 of the questions, I think some. People are keen for power and 194 00:09:32,800 --> 00:09:34,680 they see reform as the way to get there. 195 00:09:34,760 --> 00:09:36,800 One of the questions that was asked about Charlie Kirk, 196 00:09:36,800 --> 00:09:40,040 interestingly was and, and I hope you start to come back to 197 00:09:40,040 --> 00:09:43,040 your point about Danny Kirk, was, was Charlie Kirk far right? 198 00:09:43,040 --> 00:09:45,880 And what they failed to appreciate is what he was, was 199 00:09:45,880 --> 00:09:48,880 actually a Christian fundamentalist and his politics 200 00:09:48,880 --> 00:09:49,960 were very much influenced by that. 201 00:09:49,960 --> 00:09:53,280 And it wasn't really easy to put that on the right left spectrum. 202 00:09:53,280 --> 00:09:54,920 Some of it was highly compassionate. 203 00:09:55,080 --> 00:09:57,080 Some of it is what we traditionally regard as far 204 00:09:57,080 --> 00:09:59,240 right. OK, But you couldn't put him on 205 00:09:59,240 --> 00:10:01,080 that spectrum. A bit similar. 206 00:10:01,320 --> 00:10:05,200 Danny's politics are very difficult for me to to kind of 207 00:10:05,320 --> 00:10:08,280 compare myself to because we start with such different. 208 00:10:09,240 --> 00:10:12,760 Some of his answers is because Jesus said so, right? 209 00:10:12,760 --> 00:10:14,560 And which he genuinely and seriously means. 210 00:10:14,760 --> 00:10:18,280 And I've got huge respect for people of faith, just that isn't 211 00:10:18,280 --> 00:10:20,600 my fate. So it's very hard for me to to 212 00:10:20,600 --> 00:10:22,640 relate to it sometimes. So you are. 213 00:10:23,280 --> 00:10:26,760 You're you're a Christian, you know, do you see that appeal? 214 00:10:26,800 --> 00:10:29,680 And also you said something very interesting that I wanted you to 215 00:10:29,680 --> 00:10:32,200 expand on that You said a lot of your colleagues who are thinking 216 00:10:32,200 --> 00:10:35,080 about defecting to reform, they sense power I. 217 00:10:35,160 --> 00:10:37,320 Don't want to give you the impression that I know lots of 218 00:10:37,320 --> 00:10:39,520 people who are thinking are defecting to reform because I 219 00:10:39,520 --> 00:10:43,840 don't, but I can see that some people are attracted by the 220 00:10:43,840 --> 00:10:46,920 basis of getting re elected and getting into power. 221 00:10:47,960 --> 00:10:49,840 Quite a lot of the people. And Nadine has perhaps an 222 00:10:49,840 --> 00:10:54,920 unusual exception that she did serve in cabinet, as did Jake 223 00:10:54,920 --> 00:10:57,400 Berry. But most of the people who've 224 00:10:57,400 --> 00:11:01,440 moved didn't really reach that level under a Conservative 225 00:11:01,520 --> 00:11:03,200 government. So perhaps they see an 226 00:11:03,200 --> 00:11:06,080 opportunity there and that enough of the policies are 227 00:11:06,080 --> 00:11:12,400 similar, But nevertheless, I actually don't particularly know 228 00:11:12,400 --> 00:11:14,920 people who are lining up to jump to reforms. 229 00:11:15,360 --> 00:11:18,600 I mean, obviously lots of people who voted Conservative are at 230 00:11:18,600 --> 00:11:20,360 the moment intending to vote reform. 231 00:11:20,640 --> 00:11:23,360 That will mean a proportion of people in the party want to do 232 00:11:23,360 --> 00:11:24,840 that. The interesting thing is 233 00:11:24,840 --> 00:11:28,840 actually not how many have done that, but how few and how not. 234 00:11:28,840 --> 00:11:31,320 Stunning. I mean that Danny Kruger is a 235 00:11:31,520 --> 00:11:35,000 mid level person. How, how not that senior has 236 00:11:35,000 --> 00:11:38,440 been, but you know, who knows the the the kind of maths of it 237 00:11:38,440 --> 00:11:40,960 suggests that that will they'll be quite a bit more. 238 00:11:41,240 --> 00:11:44,200 So, staying on the maths, I want to just propose a thought 239 00:11:44,200 --> 00:11:46,840 experiment for you both. You know you're on the threshold 240 00:11:46,840 --> 00:11:49,320 of a general election. The polls are still the way they 241 00:11:49,320 --> 00:11:52,280 are. If it is the price of getting 242 00:11:52,280 --> 00:11:56,120 yourselves back into power to do a merger or some kind of pact 243 00:11:56,120 --> 00:11:59,160 with Reform that sees Nigel Farage installed in Downing St. 244 00:11:59,160 --> 00:11:59,720 would. You do it. 245 00:11:59,960 --> 00:12:01,960 Depends who. I know this is funniest 246 00:12:01,960 --> 00:12:03,800 questions. It depends exactly who Reform 247 00:12:03,800 --> 00:12:05,960 is, and we don't know that question. 248 00:12:07,040 --> 00:12:11,240 It depends whether it's the party that Nigel Farage wants to 249 00:12:11,240 --> 00:12:13,440 produce or the party that he's going to produce if. 250 00:12:13,560 --> 00:12:15,720 They stay away from the Tommy Robinsons in the far right. 251 00:12:15,720 --> 00:12:19,520 I don't think I, I, that's, that's not enough myself, by the 252 00:12:19,520 --> 00:12:22,280 way, for me, because obviously I'm not, I don't have Nigel 253 00:12:22,280 --> 00:12:27,320 Farage's politics either, right? I, the question is whether he, 254 00:12:27,320 --> 00:12:30,520 whether he's going to take that party and move it to war with 255 00:12:30,520 --> 00:12:33,840 Danny Kruger back towards the Conservative Party and be a 256 00:12:33,840 --> 00:12:36,400 group of people with whom the Conservative Party can have a 257 00:12:36,400 --> 00:12:38,560 relationship. It wouldn't be my personal 258 00:12:38,560 --> 00:12:40,600 relationship, right? So if he does that though, you 259 00:12:40,600 --> 00:12:42,120 can see a lot of people saying right this. 260 00:12:42,120 --> 00:12:44,280 Is our best. There's a lot of there's not 261 00:12:44,280 --> 00:12:45,920 this, not what I think is going to happen. 262 00:12:45,960 --> 00:12:51,360 So I think I, I don't think this party's, the Reform Party's got 263 00:12:51,360 --> 00:12:54,560 to problems along with its big strength. 264 00:12:54,560 --> 00:12:59,080 So it has a huge demographic. It has got a clear diagnosis of 265 00:12:59,080 --> 00:13:00,920 what's wrong with the country, which I don't have to agree 266 00:13:00,920 --> 00:13:03,000 with. But you know, there are bits 267 00:13:03,000 --> 00:13:04,920 that I agree with, but I don't think it's the central thing. 268 00:13:05,320 --> 00:13:08,440 But what it also has is it's, it's incredibly reliant on Nigel 269 00:13:08,440 --> 00:13:11,160 Farage. And secondly, it is pulled 270 00:13:11,160 --> 00:13:15,400 towards the online right. And Nigel Farage may or may not 271 00:13:15,400 --> 00:13:17,480 have the power to keep it from that. 272 00:13:18,120 --> 00:13:19,880 And I just don't know the answer to that question. 273 00:13:20,200 --> 00:13:25,880 And I don't want to be part of, you know, an Elon Musk party or 274 00:13:25,880 --> 00:13:31,200 a Donald Trump party. And personally, and I think the 275 00:13:31,240 --> 00:13:34,320 chances are pretty high that's actually the party that Nigel 276 00:13:34,320 --> 00:13:36,440 Farage is going to end up with. And. 277 00:13:37,680 --> 00:13:41,400 But Theresa, if it's if it's a question of being out of power 278 00:13:41,400 --> 00:13:43,920 in the wilderness for generations, possibly ceasing to 279 00:13:43,920 --> 00:13:48,000 exist as an independent party, would you advocate doing a deal 280 00:13:48,000 --> 00:13:50,960 with Nigel Farage on those? Grounds I'm not very big on 281 00:13:50,960 --> 00:13:53,680 doing hypotheticals. So I think, I think that's not. 282 00:13:53,760 --> 00:13:55,880 A deal because he doesn't think. We're the same. 283 00:13:56,160 --> 00:13:59,840 Well, I think Reform are benefiting from a frustration of 284 00:13:59,840 --> 00:14:03,000 the British public of a plague on both your houses to 285 00:14:03,000 --> 00:14:05,560 Conservatives who they chopped out and then a very frustrated 286 00:14:05,560 --> 00:14:08,080 with Labour. And that's what we're seeing. 287 00:14:09,160 --> 00:14:11,200 We're seeing something a somewhat simplistic approach of 288 00:14:11,200 --> 00:14:14,360 reform on how would they'd solve every problem going. 289 00:14:14,640 --> 00:14:16,200 So we're not going to do that. It's an. 290 00:14:16,200 --> 00:14:17,920 SDP flash in the pan potentially. 291 00:14:18,520 --> 00:14:19,880 Don't we? I don't want to say flash in the 292 00:14:19,880 --> 00:14:21,800 pan, no. Reforms much more than that. 293 00:14:22,400 --> 00:14:24,920 So the the reason why reforms much more than that is that the 294 00:14:25,360 --> 00:14:29,080 working class conservative vote with the small C conservative 295 00:14:29,080 --> 00:14:34,520 vote is much larger than I think was the was the size of the SDP 296 00:14:34,520 --> 00:14:36,840 willing middle class, particularly not in the early 297 00:14:36,840 --> 00:14:38,920 1980s. So it's got a much more solid 298 00:14:39,640 --> 00:14:42,800 basis and it probably can reach 3031%. 299 00:14:43,000 --> 00:14:48,640 Now the thing with 3031% is in 1931, thirty percent produced an 300 00:14:48,680 --> 00:14:51,360 absolute calamity for the Labour Party, right? 301 00:14:51,360 --> 00:14:58,360 In 19, 2019, 32% produced an absolute calamity for Jeremy 302 00:14:58,360 --> 00:15:01,720 Corbyn. In twenty, 2433% produced a 303 00:15:01,720 --> 00:15:05,600 landslide for Keir Starmer. So it just depend, you know that 304 00:15:05,600 --> 00:15:09,440 isn't, that is not an unbeatable proportion of the population. 305 00:15:09,560 --> 00:15:12,200 Right, but Teresa, you didn't quite answer my question in if 306 00:15:12,200 --> 00:15:15,400 it is the only way of the Tories surviving getting back into 307 00:15:15,400 --> 00:15:18,120 power, do you do a deal with with Reform? 308 00:15:18,160 --> 00:15:20,240 I don't think Kemi will do that at all. 309 00:15:20,400 --> 00:15:21,640 Well, no, but Kemi might not be there. 310 00:15:22,840 --> 00:15:23,760 We'll come on to that in a minute. 311 00:15:23,760 --> 00:15:27,160 We had a we. Just so be clear, we had an 312 00:15:27,160 --> 00:15:30,480 electoral pact with Danny Kruger until about 3 weeks ago. 313 00:15:30,920 --> 00:15:32,280 So that answers your question, right? 314 00:15:32,280 --> 00:15:35,080 So there are certainly people in Reform. 315 00:15:35,080 --> 00:15:38,400 I had a long standing political relationship and friendship with 316 00:15:38,400 --> 00:15:40,360 Tim Montgomery who's now in Reform. 317 00:15:41,560 --> 00:15:45,200 We've had a, I had a tempestuous and very difficult political 318 00:15:45,200 --> 00:15:47,920 relationship with Nadine Doris, but it was electoral pact. 319 00:15:48,160 --> 00:15:51,240 OK. So the question of whether 320 00:15:51,400 --> 00:15:54,480 Therese and I could have an electoral pact with, with some 321 00:15:54,480 --> 00:15:56,880 of the people in Reform obviously because we've had one, 322 00:15:57,120 --> 00:15:59,240 right? Could we, could we have an 323 00:15:59,240 --> 00:16:00,680 alliance with some of the voters of Reform? 324 00:16:00,840 --> 00:16:02,920 Yes, because conservative governments have relied on those 325 00:16:02,920 --> 00:16:05,000 voters repeatedly. Well, I suppose, But the 326 00:16:05,000 --> 00:16:06,960 question is the Reform is an organization. 327 00:16:06,960 --> 00:16:10,400 So yeah, we do not yet know whether Reform is going to be 328 00:16:10,400 --> 00:16:12,560 large enough. This is not probably a moot 329 00:16:12,560 --> 00:16:15,000 question because Reform doesn't want a relationship with the 330 00:16:15,000 --> 00:16:18,280 Conservative Party. So all these hypotheticals piled 331 00:16:18,280 --> 00:16:20,840 on top of the others. I mean, it's not mere political 332 00:16:20,840 --> 00:16:24,000 evasion not to answer this. But the Tories have no God-given 333 00:16:24,000 --> 00:16:26,720 right to exist, do they? I mean, there are people, a lot 334 00:16:26,720 --> 00:16:29,440 of people around here and you look at how empty the exhibition 335 00:16:29,440 --> 00:16:32,840 hall is and we'll come back to that in a second, but there's 336 00:16:33,000 --> 00:16:36,200 there is an existential crisis looming over this party. 337 00:16:36,960 --> 00:16:40,240 I think the Conservatives are going to be still obviously 338 00:16:40,240 --> 00:16:43,960 contesting the next election in a fulsome way and and deserve 339 00:16:43,960 --> 00:16:48,360 to, you know, we have a proud history in this within our 340 00:16:48,360 --> 00:16:51,640 country. We have had electoral success. 341 00:16:51,640 --> 00:16:54,520 Yes, we are going through a very difficult moment. 342 00:16:54,520 --> 00:16:58,000 I'm not pretending otherwise. But the party made a choice of 343 00:16:58,000 --> 00:17:00,520 leader last year. Kemi is now at the stage 344 00:17:00,520 --> 00:17:04,040 starting to roll out policies and I think that we just need to 345 00:17:04,040 --> 00:17:06,440 continue to build with the aspect of credibility. 346 00:17:06,480 --> 00:17:09,359 This party could cease to exist. It's completely profound, the 347 00:17:09,359 --> 00:17:16,200 crisis and basically as the party has moved steadily to the 348 00:17:16,200 --> 00:17:20,319 right to try to to win these vote, things got worse and 349 00:17:20,319 --> 00:17:22,440 worse. Because the obvious thing the 350 00:17:22,440 --> 00:17:27,599 Conservative Party offers is a broad coalition for people of 351 00:17:27,599 --> 00:17:33,440 the, of the, of the rights. Well, it certainly does, but but 352 00:17:33,440 --> 00:17:37,760 it's the, the, the truth is that the Conservative Party is needs 353 00:17:38,040 --> 00:17:41,080 every needs everybody that was in it, right. 354 00:17:41,280 --> 00:17:45,360 It needs to build a broad coalition and it the what the 355 00:17:45,520 --> 00:17:50,600 the the one advantage that the Conservative Party retains over 356 00:17:50,880 --> 00:17:56,400 reform is that I think it's possible for a form to get 32% 357 00:17:56,520 --> 00:18:02,120 of the vote for a for a project of the right. 358 00:18:02,360 --> 00:18:05,720 You can only get 40% if it becomes the seriously left wing 359 00:18:05,720 --> 00:18:10,680 party on economics could do that, but then it would be very 360 00:18:10,680 --> 00:18:12,280 off putting to all conservatives. 361 00:18:12,280 --> 00:18:15,320 It would cease to be competing with conservatives in that way 362 00:18:15,320 --> 00:18:20,200 and it'd become a broader party. The Conservative Party has, can 363 00:18:20,200 --> 00:18:23,440 and has been a party of 40%. But this question you're asking 364 00:18:23,440 --> 00:18:24,920 of us, it's reasonable to ask of us. 365 00:18:25,080 --> 00:18:28,840 The governing party only has two or three points more than the 366 00:18:28,840 --> 00:18:32,680 Conservative Party. So this I realised that there's 367 00:18:32,680 --> 00:18:34,320 the whole thing is because they're in power. 368 00:18:34,320 --> 00:18:36,760 This it's not unreasonable by the way, but because they're in 369 00:18:36,760 --> 00:18:42,160 power, everybody turns up to watch the governing party, most 370 00:18:42,160 --> 00:18:44,360 of whom were what Maurice Glassman called the lanyard 371 00:18:44,360 --> 00:18:45,640 class. In other words, it's like 372 00:18:45,640 --> 00:18:50,040 British Gas is there right rather than delicate. 373 00:18:50,320 --> 00:18:54,320 But every all of the main political parties have got a big 374 00:18:55,440 --> 00:18:57,760 challenge because it's fragmenting, which is Which is 375 00:18:57,760 --> 00:19:01,280 why Keir Starmer won the last general election with an 376 00:19:01,280 --> 00:19:05,160 objectively tiny proportion of voters, a massive landslide with 377 00:19:05,160 --> 00:19:07,280 33% of. The voters just answer yes or no 378 00:19:07,280 --> 00:19:09,600 question. Could the Conservative Party 379 00:19:09,600 --> 00:19:10,680 cease to exist? Yes. 380 00:19:10,760 --> 00:19:12,800 Oh, absolutely, yes. Yes or no, I think it will 381 00:19:12,800 --> 00:19:14,800 continue. To I think it's but you asked me 382 00:19:14,800 --> 00:19:17,360 yes or no, But is it likely? No, I don't think that's what's. 383 00:19:17,360 --> 00:19:17,960 Going to happen. OK. 384 00:19:17,960 --> 00:19:19,400 How long does Kemi Veit not have? 385 00:19:20,240 --> 00:19:24,080 Well, I'm I'm interested by people just saying this is a 386 00:19:24,120 --> 00:19:27,400 make or break conference. I think this is going to be a 387 00:19:27,400 --> 00:19:31,040 good conference for Kemi. I think there are definitely, 388 00:19:31,040 --> 00:19:36,800 I'm sure there are MPs who undoubtedly have already decided 389 00:19:36,800 --> 00:19:39,160 that they want a different leader, but yeah, and a lot. 390 00:19:39,160 --> 00:19:41,840 Of a lot are on manoeuvres. Aren't, as a significant number 391 00:19:41,840 --> 00:19:45,280 I speak to, are also very conscious of the recent history, 392 00:19:45,600 --> 00:19:48,160 don't believe that chopping and changing the captain is going to 393 00:19:48,520 --> 00:19:52,320 make a difference. They have confidence in aspects 394 00:19:52,320 --> 00:19:55,280 of Kenny's approach in trying to do some proper thinking. 395 00:19:56,440 --> 00:20:01,840 I guess one of the things, I forgive me, Danny has got a 396 00:20:01,920 --> 00:20:06,080 really interesting experience and of being in government or 397 00:20:06,440 --> 00:20:08,480 not as a minister, but. Behind the scenes. 398 00:20:08,920 --> 00:20:14,160 Guiding and I remember a discussion I had with Kemi, I 399 00:20:14,160 --> 00:20:16,680 can't quite recall when, but it's just like what are the 400 00:20:16,680 --> 00:20:19,800 challenges when you come into a cabinet role, when you come into 401 00:20:19,800 --> 00:20:24,280 government several years down the line, you it's actually 402 00:20:24,280 --> 00:20:28,480 difficult to bring new thinking. It's difficult to you've got 403 00:20:28,480 --> 00:20:31,880 your legacy that or the manifestos back from 2010 and 404 00:20:32,240 --> 00:20:35,800 that you have to deliver and you don't really have any choice in 405 00:20:35,800 --> 00:20:38,000 that unless or don't take the role. 406 00:20:38,480 --> 00:20:42,520 So this is the first opportunity in a while that the concertos 407 00:20:42,520 --> 00:20:46,600 have had to not trash try and trash the past, but to have a 408 00:20:46,720 --> 00:20:50,280 proper thing about what the conservative solution is for 409 00:20:50,280 --> 00:20:52,680 this this phase of the 21st century. 410 00:20:52,920 --> 00:20:55,520 People always say, by the way, just to back up that they would 411 00:20:55,520 --> 00:20:59,160 say, you know, the Tories need a period in opposition in order to 412 00:20:59,160 --> 00:21:00,320 think. And then you get into 413 00:21:00,320 --> 00:21:01,760 opposition. Everyone goes, I can't believe 414 00:21:01,760 --> 00:21:06,000 you're rethinking, you know, and didn't isn't that what everyone 415 00:21:06,000 --> 00:21:07,240 told the Conservative body to do? 416 00:21:07,480 --> 00:21:10,760 Every senior conservative you speak to here in the bars, at 417 00:21:10,760 --> 00:21:13,840 the parties says that they think Kemi Baidenot will be out by 418 00:21:13,840 --> 00:21:16,720 December, by May or certainly before the general election. 419 00:21:17,280 --> 00:21:19,360 But I've certainly heard that, obviously, because, you know, 420 00:21:19,360 --> 00:21:21,520 any political journalist has done that, has heard that, and 421 00:21:21,520 --> 00:21:23,640 I've heard that too. Not sure. 422 00:21:23,640 --> 00:21:26,800 I think it's a very sensible thing to do and. 423 00:21:27,920 --> 00:21:30,280 But it's inevitable. No, it's not. 424 00:21:30,280 --> 00:21:31,840 I think politics is never inevitable. 425 00:21:32,160 --> 00:21:34,680 Do I think it's a high probability? 426 00:21:34,680 --> 00:21:36,800 Yeah, I think it is a high probability just judging by 427 00:21:37,040 --> 00:21:40,360 talking to Conservative MPs and activists. 428 00:21:41,560 --> 00:21:43,280 The thing that holds it back are two things. 429 00:21:43,280 --> 00:21:46,680 First of all, it's always harder to remove the leader than it 430 00:21:46,680 --> 00:21:48,800 seems. There's a lot of people, for 431 00:21:48,800 --> 00:21:51,800 example, who were on the front bench when it and they'll be as 432 00:21:51,800 --> 00:21:55,520 a proportion that's larger right then who don't then want to 433 00:21:55,520 --> 00:21:57,680 resign. They the moment somebody 434 00:21:58,040 --> 00:22:00,200 proposes no confidence, they immediately come and say, 435 00:22:00,200 --> 00:22:04,440 actually, we're on side. So it, it, it, it's hard to, if 436 00:22:04,440 --> 00:22:07,960 you keep your relations in good order, it can be hard to do. 437 00:22:09,080 --> 00:22:12,440 Boris Johnson had to really work very hard on tipping himself 438 00:22:12,440 --> 00:22:16,040 out. But naturally the experiences if 439 00:22:16,040 --> 00:22:19,000 you if you do have one of these votes of confidence, it's very 440 00:22:19,000 --> 00:22:22,640 destabilising. I think it's she's clearly got 441 00:22:23,200 --> 00:22:25,920 some difficulties because the party's trying casting around 442 00:22:25,920 --> 00:22:28,880 for anything to do that will remote change the situation. 443 00:22:28,880 --> 00:22:30,040 The only thing that would change it. 444 00:22:30,040 --> 00:22:32,960 I think this isn't quite the right strategy, but actually I 445 00:22:32,960 --> 00:22:37,800 don't think she's a bad public performer, for example. 446 00:22:38,160 --> 00:22:41,320 And I think that the electorate, there's actually, you know, the 447 00:22:41,320 --> 00:22:43,920 polling that I've seen, the electorate is they don't know 448 00:22:43,920 --> 00:22:46,360 who she is. Yeah, literally every pollster 449 00:22:46,360 --> 00:22:47,360 says. They that's true, but those 450 00:22:47,360 --> 00:22:49,120 people don't know lots of political personalities. 451 00:22:49,360 --> 00:22:51,160 I mean, we did a poll for the Times. 452 00:22:51,520 --> 00:22:53,480 We were asking people what do you think of Keir Starmer? 453 00:22:53,480 --> 00:22:56,680 And one of the people said, what's a Keir Starmer, right. 454 00:22:56,880 --> 00:22:59,560 So people do people do people don't know who the leader of the 455 00:22:59,560 --> 00:23:01,920 opposition is a lot of the time they didn't know Jeremy Corbyn 456 00:23:01,920 --> 00:23:04,520 was for example, even though you're quite well in 2017. 457 00:23:04,520 --> 00:23:07,320 So that's not my critical problem with that. 458 00:23:07,520 --> 00:23:12,000 My critical problem is whether or not just when they do see 459 00:23:12,000 --> 00:23:16,080 her, they, they, they actually quite like they're ready to hear 460 00:23:16,080 --> 00:23:17,560 more, but they haven't heard more. 461 00:23:17,560 --> 00:23:18,840 So there are two questions. Yeah, they. 462 00:23:18,840 --> 00:23:21,000 Can't say a single. Thing can she force away onto 463 00:23:21,000 --> 00:23:23,960 the political agenda. Hard but not impossible, more 464 00:23:23,960 --> 00:23:25,920 made more difficult. If there's a kind of default 465 00:23:26,200 --> 00:23:28,520 every time you do something, you're panicking sort of thing. 466 00:23:28,760 --> 00:23:32,000 But so that's up to the media a little bit as to whether we're 467 00:23:32,000 --> 00:23:35,280 going to cover what she says. And then when she does, do does 468 00:23:35,280 --> 00:23:37,200 she do? Does she have a strategy that 469 00:23:37,200 --> 00:23:41,080 broadens the Tory Party's appeal and doesn't just double down on 470 00:23:41,080 --> 00:23:42,920 something that doesn't seem to me to work? 471 00:23:43,280 --> 00:23:46,520 So the broadening, the appeal or re broadening is absolutely key. 472 00:23:46,520 --> 00:23:50,200 And going back to some, I won't say back to basics as such, but 473 00:23:50,200 --> 00:23:53,640 going back to something simpler, being on the side of people 474 00:23:53,640 --> 00:23:56,920 trying to get on the housing ladder and challenging the cost 475 00:23:56,920 --> 00:23:59,600 of living or tackling, that has to be the way forward. 476 00:23:59,720 --> 00:24:01,520 And I do believe that's what we're seeing. 477 00:24:01,560 --> 00:24:05,040 But given that we've all heard the open discussion about her 478 00:24:05,040 --> 00:24:08,760 leadership, Rob Jenrick has been quite careful not to do an Andy 479 00:24:08,760 --> 00:24:10,200 Burnham. He's not really put himself out 480 00:24:10,200 --> 00:24:12,760 there as much as he perhaps could have done this week so 481 00:24:12,760 --> 00:24:14,520 far. Other contenders? 482 00:24:14,520 --> 00:24:16,120 James Cleverly? Mel Stride? 483 00:24:16,120 --> 00:24:18,240 Chris Philp? Could they skip a generation, go 484 00:24:18,240 --> 00:24:20,280 for Claire Coutinho? Katie Lamb? 485 00:24:20,600 --> 00:24:23,840 I mean, who do you reckon might be the next leader? 486 00:24:23,840 --> 00:24:26,320 Whoever and whenever? That I'm not going to go down 487 00:24:26,320 --> 00:24:29,480 this route because I do think there are still actually rather 488 00:24:29,480 --> 00:24:32,240 a lot of sensible heads left in the Conservative parliamentary 489 00:24:32,240 --> 00:24:34,880 party. Who have just have seen what's 490 00:24:34,880 --> 00:24:37,400 happened in the last five years and that chopping and changing 491 00:24:37,400 --> 00:24:39,040 has not helped anybody. It's not helped the 492 00:24:39,040 --> 00:24:40,120 conservatives. OK, who are you? 493 00:24:40,120 --> 00:24:43,680 Impressed with? That's a different question. 494 00:24:44,000 --> 00:24:46,000 I'll ask you that one as. Well, it's an entirely different 495 00:24:46,000 --> 00:24:50,360 question. So I think James Cleverly has 496 00:24:50,360 --> 00:24:55,560 got a broader appeal and I like that at A at a different end of 497 00:24:55,560 --> 00:24:58,320 the spectrum, both two of the people you mentioned, Katie Lamb 498 00:24:58,360 --> 00:25:00,920 and Claire Coutinho, great capable people. 499 00:25:00,920 --> 00:25:02,680 So is. There an argument for skipping a 500 00:25:02,720 --> 00:25:03,840 generation. I don't. 501 00:25:03,920 --> 00:25:09,440 Well, I don't do. You mean by that 2024 intake? 502 00:25:09,840 --> 00:25:12,240 There's clearly an argument. Yeah, potentially or just 503 00:25:12,280 --> 00:25:13,960 younger. No, I don't think it would make 504 00:25:13,960 --> 00:25:17,280 any difference to do that unless you unless you were able to 505 00:25:17,400 --> 00:25:20,840 change your strategy at the same time, which the Conservative 506 00:25:20,840 --> 00:25:22,160 Party I don't think is about to do. 507 00:25:22,440 --> 00:25:26,920 So no is actually the answer. I I would not. 508 00:25:27,280 --> 00:25:30,720 I think that setting down the route of removing can be to 509 00:25:30,720 --> 00:25:33,280 replace it with someone else who people also won't have heard of 510 00:25:34,280 --> 00:25:35,920 isn't a particularly good idea. Well, that. 511 00:25:36,160 --> 00:25:38,000 Does that does apply to James Kevin as? 512 00:25:38,000 --> 00:25:40,280 Well, sorry, I didn't say that it should drop by. 513 00:25:40,320 --> 00:25:42,480 So you asked me who I was impressed by and what? 514 00:25:42,480 --> 00:25:44,120 Recommends him to you. Is that you? 515 00:25:44,120 --> 00:25:46,520 I'm not in favour of doing it at all, but if you. 516 00:25:46,520 --> 00:25:48,320 Had to. But I don't have to. 517 00:25:49,920 --> 00:25:51,400 OK, Therese well. If you had to. 518 00:25:52,760 --> 00:25:55,000 I think there's some interesting thought processes. 519 00:25:55,000 --> 00:25:59,040 I mean, Nick, Timothy, I think is brings a lot of interesting 520 00:25:59,040 --> 00:26:05,560 thinking to, to to that. I mean people, a lot of people 521 00:26:05,560 --> 00:26:08,280 have different backstories and how they've got into into 522 00:26:08,280 --> 00:26:13,600 politics, got into Parliament. I think I don't want to set 523 00:26:13,600 --> 00:26:17,640 hairs running particularly. I think Kemi made some changes 524 00:26:17,640 --> 00:26:19,760 to her team. I think Helen Whiteley's doing a 525 00:26:19,760 --> 00:26:23,760 good job at DWPI, think she's thinking things through in a 526 00:26:23,760 --> 00:26:27,920 good systematic way. So I'm I'm not looking for other 527 00:26:27,920 --> 00:26:30,440 people to try and knock Chemi off. 528 00:26:30,440 --> 00:26:33,560 One aspect of her, what she's doing I really approve of, which 529 00:26:33,560 --> 00:26:36,640 is she is giving a bit of serious thought to how things 530 00:26:36,640 --> 00:26:39,000 will work. She does think that is a bit of 531 00:26:39,000 --> 00:26:42,440 the conservative bill that I've, I've obviously said I don't 532 00:26:42,440 --> 00:26:43,720 think it's quite the right strategy. 533 00:26:43,920 --> 00:26:45,600 That bit I'm really strongly for. 534 00:26:45,720 --> 00:26:48,760 So funny if the the bit that people have given her the most 535 00:26:48,760 --> 00:26:51,440 grief for, which is, you know, why are we waiting for her to 536 00:26:51,440 --> 00:26:55,120 say things? She does seem to me, and the 537 00:26:55,120 --> 00:26:58,720 Wolfson report was an example of that on the ECHR, not a policy 538 00:26:58,720 --> 00:27:00,360 that I agree with, but some trouble. 539 00:27:00,360 --> 00:27:04,080 They took some trouble to, to see whether the policy, what the 540 00:27:04,160 --> 00:27:06,200 implications of it would be. That's a good strategy. 541 00:27:06,240 --> 00:27:10,240 Just finally, I mean, I know you've both attended a hell of a 542 00:27:10,240 --> 00:27:13,480 lot of conferences. Is this the emptiest conference 543 00:27:13,480 --> 00:27:17,240 that you've seen in terms of the conference stands here, the tiny 544 00:27:17,240 --> 00:27:21,800 hall, the number of delegates? Well, I, my very first was back 545 00:27:21,800 --> 00:27:27,920 in 1991 when I was a student. So I think it is, it is slow 546 00:27:27,920 --> 00:27:31,160 down on members numbers. But what I always love, what I 547 00:27:31,160 --> 00:27:33,520 love coming to conference is to get to talk to the members. 548 00:27:33,960 --> 00:27:37,720 And understandably we were in government for so long, quite a 549 00:27:37,720 --> 00:27:41,160 lot of people get squeezed out. You know, the lobbyists were 550 00:27:41,160 --> 00:27:44,160 here, they're not. It was very busy last year, I 551 00:27:44,160 --> 00:27:46,880 think because of the leadership contest and not quite the same 552 00:27:46,960 --> 00:27:50,080 this year, but I actually enjoy the opportunity to go and talk 553 00:27:50,080 --> 00:27:53,040 and see what's going on in the grass roots in different parts. 554 00:27:53,040 --> 00:27:54,280 Of time. More time to talk to fewer 555 00:27:54,280 --> 00:27:57,920 people. I went to the 1989 SDP 556 00:27:57,920 --> 00:28:01,360 conference in Coventry and I was on the national executive and 557 00:28:01,360 --> 00:28:04,400 almost nobody spoke and we had to go and rush into the bars to 558 00:28:04,400 --> 00:28:06,120 get people so the debates would last long enough. 559 00:28:06,400 --> 00:28:09,880 And then during the last, after the end of the leaders speech, 560 00:28:09,880 --> 00:28:12,440 David Owen's speech, we all stood up, moved our chair back 561 00:28:12,440 --> 00:28:16,320 and knocked the platform over. So this conference is not the 562 00:28:16,320 --> 00:28:18,560 emptiest conference I've ever. But it's the emptiest Tory. 563 00:28:18,560 --> 00:28:20,480 It's still. Expensive to come to Manchester. 564 00:28:21,080 --> 00:28:22,840 I mean, genuinely, those sound like an invasion. 565 00:28:22,880 --> 00:28:26,400 I haven't been around, but when you saw the pictures of Mel 566 00:28:26,400 --> 00:28:29,040 Stride's conference, it clearly was. 567 00:28:29,040 --> 00:28:31,360 Yeah, clearly was. And that's not that surprising. 568 00:28:31,360 --> 00:28:34,360 I mean that all we're seeing is what you can read in the opinion 569 00:28:34,360 --> 00:28:35,080 polls. Just. 570 00:28:35,160 --> 00:28:38,200 The fringe is still busy, the fringe is busy, and the fringe 571 00:28:38,200 --> 00:28:39,880 has always been the most interesting bit of. 572 00:28:39,880 --> 00:28:42,920 Conference, I mean, I don't, I mean, I think that's a 573 00:28:42,920 --> 00:28:45,840 reasonable observation, but I'm I'm not sure that it changes 574 00:28:45,840 --> 00:28:47,720 anything to make it. We know that the Conservative 575 00:28:47,720 --> 00:28:50,600 Party's in a lot of trouble, OK, But I still had, there's still 576 00:28:51,360 --> 00:28:55,680 something in the Conservative idea which and potential breadth 577 00:28:55,920 --> 00:29:00,440 that gives it some possibility for recovery, even though it 578 00:29:00,440 --> 00:29:02,280 looks distant to me at the moment. 579 00:29:02,600 --> 00:29:04,880 Danny Finkelstein, Torres Coffee, Thank you both very much 580 00:29:05,000 --> 00:29:06,600 for joining us. That is it for the forecast. 581 00:29:06,600 --> 00:29:08,360 Thank you very much for watching.