Could the Conservative Party cease to exist?
Yes. Oh, absolutely, yes.
Yes or no, I think it will continue.
To I think it's, but it's completely profound, the crisis
and as the party has moved steadily to the right, so things
have got worse and worse. Liz Cross isn't here as far as
we know, unless Therese corrects me.
Does she want a defective reform?
I don't believe that's the case at all.
Would you like to? Do you fancy it?
No, I know it's probably the most ridiculous question you've
ever asked. Every senior conservative you
speak to here in the bars, at the parties says that they think
Kemi Bade not will be out by December, by May, or certainly
before the general election. How long does Kemi Bade not
have? Hello and welcome to the
forecast. We're in Manchester for the
Conservative Party conference where Kemi Badnock is fighting
for her political life. She's making two speeches, a
Blizzard of policy announcements less than a year after winning
the leadership, and urging her party to regroup after it cycled
through 5 leaders in eight years.
But few here believe that she will survive much longer.
Joining me to discuss all of this, Lord Daniel Finkelstein
and Baroness Teres Coffee. We'll be asking how long can
Badnock last? Who could replace her?
And is a pact with Reform now the Tory Party's best hope?
Well, Denny Finkelstein has been a Blizzard of policy
announcement, hasn't it? ECHR welfare, this and that.
I mean, we were promised nothing until 2027, A period of
thinking. What happened?
Well, I think they do need to make some sort of impact.
They, they, people want to think you've thought your policies
through, but you can't wait forever.
And I did think actually both main parties made a mistake
leaving the summer completely to Nigel Farage, who was able to
make quite a big impact during that period.
You can't really do that. So I maybe the experience of
that made her move a bit quicker.
But there's another reason, which is if you're going to do
the ECHR policy, you don't really want to be arguing about
that during the run up to the general election.
You want to move on to the economy if you can.
And So what you want to do, and a bit like William Hague did
immediately after you got elected on Europe, which is try
to see whether you can discipline the party behind a
single policy and then move on from it, whether that will prove
actually possible. But I understand, I understand
the timing issues at least right?
But I mean, they're also talking about the economy and cutting
benefits, basically ripping off reforms policy word for word.
It's a bit panicked, isn't it Therese?
I didn't think it's panicked at all.
I think they've gone through a lot of detailed work and
actually some of what's been mentioned today.
Helen Wheatley spoke about this a few months ago.
So if nothing else, I think how can I put it, reforms seem to be
just picking up almost like a bingo calls as without actually
having done the work and the detail behind it.
So in terms of I think the timing is right to use
conference to start to do some significant policy
pronouncements. And for example, David Wolfson,
we know him in the House of Lords.
He's a respected guy. He's done a lot of work.
Whether or not everybody will agree with him or not, that's a
different story. But nevertheless, that's still
shows the depth that Kemi and her team are going through in
order to come up with, you know, justifying and affect their
decisions. I think also we've got to avoid
kind of like journalistic overlay of kind of like, let's
let me give you an example, Ed Miliband sandwich, right?
You just take a sandwich. Everyone used it as a narrative
to tell a story about Ed Miliband not being very
appealing to the electorate. And there was David Miliband and
the banana. Exactly.
And that was exactly the same thing.
There was nothing wrong with it whatsoever in either incident.
So the word panic or they're copying reform, reform.
If reform and the conservatives have announced the same policy.
The right question is, is this a good idea?
We're overlaying split though we're over.
Well, that's a that that we can come on to whether it's.
A good idea? Well, is it, is it a good idea?
Because there are splits on the ECHR, on welfare, on, on all
sorts of. People.
So I, I'm pretty sympathetic to the welfare policies actually.
I think in general you have to save money on welfare and we've
also got to have a, a welfare system which people feel is
reciprocal. I paid in, therefore I got out.
So I think looking at the migration issue and welfare at
the same time, that's not a bad idea.
You won't save lots of money during that, but I think people
it will help the fairness of the system.
On the ECHR. I've never been supportive of
leaving, not because I'm actually hugely ideological
about it, but I just question whether the wrench from the
international system is worth the gain on migration.
So my view is yeah. I mean, it won't make much
difference, says David Gore for. A conservative I think that
argument that's the argument that that I find most
persuasive. Look my my view is the world
community of of people who are with small our Liberal Democrats
has got to get a grip on migration and I am willing to be
supportive of anything even things that I'd previously be
hovering over and big amendments to the refugee convention, for
example to get a grip on this. I'm just not absolutely clear
this would I? I think the proportion of our
illegal immigration cases that are genuinely being held up by
the Human Rights Act and the ECHR is small.
I think there's a chance the Conservative Party will will
have difficulties uniting over it.
But more than that, I think the electorate, despite wanting
migration to be dealt with, might actually balk at very big
radical change. People are quite loss averse.
So I'm not sure from either a political or a policy point of
view that it's the right the right policy.
If I think back, Theresa May in 2016 said she'd rather leave the
ECHR than leave the EU and she's no soft touch on a lot of this
stuff. So I think there's been merit at
investigating it and that's why I think David Wilson work is
being useful for people who are concerned more generally about
significant change in institutions.
But there's no doubt that legal judgements made not just in the
UK but at the ECHR level, are getting further and further away
from what was supposed to be the basis.
Former Lord Chancellor He was writing in The Times this
morning about the tiny proportion of cases that have
actually been affected by the ECHR.
I'm not an ideologue about either the Human Rights Act or
the ECHRI, think both of those things are are pragmatic
matters. First of all, I don't think it's
a big it's a solution to this problem.
Secondly, it would be better if you're if we could have a
European wide solution. So I think the right position
for the Conservative Party would be to put pressure on the
government to engage, which it doesn't do in big negotiation
about it. But I'm dubious so.
You're sounding like you're sounding like a member of the
Labour government, I must say, But we'll come on.
No, I'm not. I'm not.
I'm not asking this that's. Not that's not true at all.
Sorry, No, that isn't true because I'm, I'm highly critical
of their failure to lead international efforts to change
the Human Rights Act and, and, and the ECHR.
So, but you know, I'm not afraid of being said to have a position
that might be the same as Shabana Mahmood on something.
Liz Cross isn't here as far as we know, unless Therese corrects
me. Is she?
Do you think she might defect her reform or would she not?
Be welcome if Nigel Farage wouldn't accept her because, and
I'll tell you what he'll do if she tries to do this, not that
you'll know much, much better. So you'll know whether she would
do this. But Nigel Farage will say I'm
not accepting somebody who thinks that Tommy Robinson is is
unacceptably demonised. So he'll use that.
What? She said in AUS.
Podcast she did and it's she'll use that Liz was somebody that I
actually liked a lot and I I find her public contributions
since she's lost Alicia completely baffling behaviour to
be. Honest, she doesn't the dark
side. Hasn't she?
Well, you know, look, it depends whether the people have will
have their own view about whether it's dark side or not,
obviously. Well.
All right, I'm well, as far as I'm concerned, yes, being the
ally of Steve Bannon and and normalising Tommy Robinson is
the dark side, definitely. And I find that bewildering
position for a Conservative who was senior enough to be the
leader of the party to take. So I'm very I'm, I'm dismayed by
it in the extreme. And but I don't think that I
think that Nigel Farage wouldn't accept her because he'd know
what he was important. Does she want to defect to?
Reform. I don't believe that's the case
at all. Have you?
Spoken to her about it. I don't need to speak to her
about it. She won't be defecting to reform
so. Would you like to?
Do you fancy it? No, honestly, it's probably the
most ridiculous question you've ever asked.
So you are Tory till the. Last breath, right?
Through and through. I grew up in Liverpool, there
was a little girl. I did have a Conservative MP.
You haven't. Quite answered the question.
What? Will you remain A Tory until
you're dying breath? Yeah, right.
Of course. I mean, a lot of your colleagues
are considering following the team Dory's, you know, I mean
like Danny. Kruger, there's a brilliant
sentence. A lot of our colleagues, a lot
of our colleagues are not considering following the team.
Torres, Danny. Kruger, I went on to say.
Well, Jane Berry, Danny, So it's a very interesting question, one
of the questions, I think some. People are keen for power and
they see reform as the way to get there.
One of the questions that was asked about Charlie Kirk,
interestingly was and, and I hope you start to come back to
your point about Danny Kirk, was, was Charlie Kirk far right?
And what they failed to appreciate is what he was, was
actually a Christian fundamentalist and his politics
were very much influenced by that.
And it wasn't really easy to put that on the right left spectrum.
Some of it was highly compassionate.
Some of it is what we traditionally regard as far
right. OK, But you couldn't put him on
that spectrum. A bit similar.
Danny's politics are very difficult for me to to kind of
compare myself to because we start with such different.
Some of his answers is because Jesus said so, right?
And which he genuinely and seriously means.
And I've got huge respect for people of faith, just that isn't
my fate. So it's very hard for me to to
relate to it sometimes. So you are.
You're you're a Christian, you know, do you see that appeal?
And also you said something very interesting that I wanted you to
expand on that You said a lot of your colleagues who are thinking
about defecting to reform, they sense power I.
Don't want to give you the impression that I know lots of
people who are thinking are defecting to reform because I
don't, but I can see that some people are attracted by the
basis of getting re elected and getting into power.
Quite a lot of the people. And Nadine has perhaps an
unusual exception that she did serve in cabinet, as did Jake
Berry. But most of the people who've
moved didn't really reach that level under a Conservative
government. So perhaps they see an
opportunity there and that enough of the policies are
similar, But nevertheless, I actually don't particularly know
people who are lining up to jump to reforms.
I mean, obviously lots of people who voted Conservative are at
the moment intending to vote reform.
That will mean a proportion of people in the party want to do
that. The interesting thing is
actually not how many have done that, but how few and how not.
Stunning. I mean that Danny Kruger is a
mid level person. How, how not that senior has
been, but you know, who knows the the the kind of maths of it
suggests that that will they'll be quite a bit more.
So, staying on the maths, I want to just propose a thought
experiment for you both. You know you're on the threshold
of a general election. The polls are still the way they
are. If it is the price of getting
yourselves back into power to do a merger or some kind of pact
with Reform that sees Nigel Farage installed in Downing St.
would. You do it.
Depends who. I know this is funniest
questions. It depends exactly who Reform
is, and we don't know that question.
It depends whether it's the party that Nigel Farage wants to
produce or the party that he's going to produce if.
They stay away from the Tommy Robinsons in the far right.
I don't think I, I, that's, that's not enough myself, by the
way, for me, because obviously I'm not, I don't have Nigel
Farage's politics either, right? I, the question is whether he,
whether he's going to take that party and move it to war with
Danny Kruger back towards the Conservative Party and be a
group of people with whom the Conservative Party can have a
relationship. It wouldn't be my personal
relationship, right? So if he does that though, you
can see a lot of people saying right this.
Is our best. There's a lot of there's not
this, not what I think is going to happen.
So I think I, I don't think this party's, the Reform Party's got
to problems along with its big strength.
So it has a huge demographic. It has got a clear diagnosis of
what's wrong with the country, which I don't have to agree
with. But you know, there are bits
that I agree with, but I don't think it's the central thing.
But what it also has is it's, it's incredibly reliant on Nigel
Farage. And secondly, it is pulled
towards the online right. And Nigel Farage may or may not
have the power to keep it from that.
And I just don't know the answer to that question.
And I don't want to be part of, you know, an Elon Musk party or
a Donald Trump party. And personally, and I think the
chances are pretty high that's actually the party that Nigel
Farage is going to end up with. And.
But Theresa, if it's if it's a question of being out of power
in the wilderness for generations, possibly ceasing to
exist as an independent party, would you advocate doing a deal
with Nigel Farage on those? Grounds I'm not very big on
doing hypotheticals. So I think, I think that's not.
A deal because he doesn't think. We're the same.
Well, I think Reform are benefiting from a frustration of
the British public of a plague on both your houses to
Conservatives who they chopped out and then a very frustrated
with Labour. And that's what we're seeing.
We're seeing something a somewhat simplistic approach of
reform on how would they'd solve every problem going.
So we're not going to do that. It's an.
SDP flash in the pan potentially.
Don't we? I don't want to say flash in the
pan, no. Reforms much more than that.
So the the reason why reforms much more than that is that the
working class conservative vote with the small C conservative
vote is much larger than I think was the was the size of the SDP
willing middle class, particularly not in the early
1980s. So it's got a much more solid
basis and it probably can reach 3031%.
Now the thing with 3031% is in 1931, thirty percent produced an
absolute calamity for the Labour Party, right?
In 19, 2019, 32% produced an absolute calamity for Jeremy
Corbyn. In twenty, 2433% produced a
landslide for Keir Starmer. So it just depend, you know that
isn't, that is not an unbeatable proportion of the population.
Right, but Teresa, you didn't quite answer my question in if
it is the only way of the Tories surviving getting back into
power, do you do a deal with with Reform?
I don't think Kemi will do that at all.
Well, no, but Kemi might not be there.
We'll come on to that in a minute.
We had a we. Just so be clear, we had an
electoral pact with Danny Kruger until about 3 weeks ago.
So that answers your question, right?
So there are certainly people in Reform.
I had a long standing political relationship and friendship with
Tim Montgomery who's now in Reform.
We've had a, I had a tempestuous and very difficult political
relationship with Nadine Doris, but it was electoral pact.
OK. So the question of whether
Therese and I could have an electoral pact with, with some
of the people in Reform obviously because we've had one,
right? Could we, could we have an
alliance with some of the voters of Reform?
Yes, because conservative governments have relied on those
voters repeatedly. Well, I suppose, But the
question is the Reform is an organization.
So yeah, we do not yet know whether Reform is going to be
large enough. This is not probably a moot
question because Reform doesn't want a relationship with the
Conservative Party. So all these hypotheticals piled
on top of the others. I mean, it's not mere political
evasion not to answer this. But the Tories have no God-given
right to exist, do they? I mean, there are people, a lot
of people around here and you look at how empty the exhibition
hall is and we'll come back to that in a second, but there's
there is an existential crisis looming over this party.
I think the Conservatives are going to be still obviously
contesting the next election in a fulsome way and and deserve
to, you know, we have a proud history in this within our
country. We have had electoral success.
Yes, we are going through a very difficult moment.
I'm not pretending otherwise. But the party made a choice of
leader last year. Kemi is now at the stage
starting to roll out policies and I think that we just need to
continue to build with the aspect of credibility.
This party could cease to exist. It's completely profound, the
crisis and basically as the party has moved steadily to the
right to try to to win these vote, things got worse and
worse. Because the obvious thing the
Conservative Party offers is a broad coalition for people of
the, of the, of the rights. Well, it certainly does, but but
it's the, the, the truth is that the Conservative Party is needs
every needs everybody that was in it, right.
It needs to build a broad coalition and it the what the
the the one advantage that the Conservative Party retains over
reform is that I think it's possible for a form to get 32%
of the vote for a for a project of the right.
You can only get 40% if it becomes the seriously left wing
party on economics could do that, but then it would be very
off putting to all conservatives.
It would cease to be competing with conservatives in that way
and it'd become a broader party. The Conservative Party has, can
and has been a party of 40%. But this question you're asking
of us, it's reasonable to ask of us.
The governing party only has two or three points more than the
Conservative Party. So this I realised that there's
the whole thing is because they're in power.
This it's not unreasonable by the way, but because they're in
power, everybody turns up to watch the governing party, most
of whom were what Maurice Glassman called the lanyard
class. In other words, it's like
British Gas is there right rather than delicate.
But every all of the main political parties have got a big
challenge because it's fragmenting, which is Which is
why Keir Starmer won the last general election with an
objectively tiny proportion of voters, a massive landslide with
33% of. The voters just answer yes or no
question. Could the Conservative Party
cease to exist? Yes.
Oh, absolutely, yes. Yes or no, I think it will
continue. To I think it's but you asked me
yes or no, But is it likely? No, I don't think that's what's.
Going to happen. OK.
How long does Kemi Veit not have?
Well, I'm I'm interested by people just saying this is a
make or break conference. I think this is going to be a
good conference for Kemi. I think there are definitely,
I'm sure there are MPs who undoubtedly have already decided
that they want a different leader, but yeah, and a lot.
Of a lot are on manoeuvres. Aren't, as a significant number
I speak to, are also very conscious of the recent history,
don't believe that chopping and changing the captain is going to
make a difference. They have confidence in aspects
of Kenny's approach in trying to do some proper thinking.
I guess one of the things, I forgive me, Danny has got a
really interesting experience and of being in government or
not as a minister, but. Behind the scenes.
Guiding and I remember a discussion I had with Kemi, I
can't quite recall when, but it's just like what are the
challenges when you come into a cabinet role, when you come into
government several years down the line, you it's actually
difficult to bring new thinking. It's difficult to you've got
your legacy that or the manifestos back from 2010 and
that you have to deliver and you don't really have any choice in
that unless or don't take the role.
So this is the first opportunity in a while that the concertos
have had to not trash try and trash the past, but to have a
proper thing about what the conservative solution is for
this this phase of the 21st century.
People always say, by the way, just to back up that they would
say, you know, the Tories need a period in opposition in order to
think. And then you get into
opposition. Everyone goes, I can't believe
you're rethinking, you know, and didn't isn't that what everyone
told the Conservative body to do?
Every senior conservative you speak to here in the bars, at
the parties says that they think Kemi Baidenot will be out by
December, by May or certainly before the general election.
But I've certainly heard that, obviously, because, you know,
any political journalist has done that, has heard that, and
I've heard that too. Not sure.
I think it's a very sensible thing to do and.
But it's inevitable. No, it's not.
I think politics is never inevitable.
Do I think it's a high probability?
Yeah, I think it is a high probability just judging by
talking to Conservative MPs and activists.
The thing that holds it back are two things.
First of all, it's always harder to remove the leader than it
seems. There's a lot of people, for
example, who were on the front bench when it and they'll be as
a proportion that's larger right then who don't then want to
resign. They the moment somebody
proposes no confidence, they immediately come and say,
actually, we're on side. So it, it, it, it's hard to, if
you keep your relations in good order, it can be hard to do.
Boris Johnson had to really work very hard on tipping himself
out. But naturally the experiences if
you if you do have one of these votes of confidence, it's very
destabilising. I think it's she's clearly got
some difficulties because the party's trying casting around
for anything to do that will remote change the situation.
The only thing that would change it.
I think this isn't quite the right strategy, but actually I
don't think she's a bad public performer, for example.
And I think that the electorate, there's actually, you know, the
polling that I've seen, the electorate is they don't know
who she is. Yeah, literally every pollster
says. They that's true, but those
people don't know lots of political personalities.
I mean, we did a poll for the Times.
We were asking people what do you think of Keir Starmer?
And one of the people said, what's a Keir Starmer, right.
So people do people do people don't know who the leader of the
opposition is a lot of the time they didn't know Jeremy Corbyn
was for example, even though you're quite well in 2017.
So that's not my critical problem with that.
My critical problem is whether or not just when they do see
her, they, they, they actually quite like they're ready to hear
more, but they haven't heard more.
So there are two questions. Yeah, they.
Can't say a single. Thing can she force away onto
the political agenda. Hard but not impossible, more
made more difficult. If there's a kind of default
every time you do something, you're panicking sort of thing.
But so that's up to the media a little bit as to whether we're
going to cover what she says. And then when she does, do does
she do? Does she have a strategy that
broadens the Tory Party's appeal and doesn't just double down on
something that doesn't seem to me to work?
So the broadening, the appeal or re broadening is absolutely key.
And going back to some, I won't say back to basics as such, but
going back to something simpler, being on the side of people
trying to get on the housing ladder and challenging the cost
of living or tackling, that has to be the way forward.
And I do believe that's what we're seeing.
But given that we've all heard the open discussion about her
leadership, Rob Jenrick has been quite careful not to do an Andy
Burnham. He's not really put himself out
there as much as he perhaps could have done this week so
far. Other contenders?
James Cleverly? Mel Stride?
Chris Philp? Could they skip a generation, go
for Claire Coutinho? Katie Lamb?
I mean, who do you reckon might be the next leader?
Whoever and whenever? That I'm not going to go down
this route because I do think there are still actually rather
a lot of sensible heads left in the Conservative parliamentary
party. Who have just have seen what's
happened in the last five years and that chopping and changing
has not helped anybody. It's not helped the
conservatives. OK, who are you?
Impressed with? That's a different question.
I'll ask you that one as. Well, it's an entirely different
question. So I think James Cleverly has
got a broader appeal and I like that at A at a different end of
the spectrum, both two of the people you mentioned, Katie Lamb
and Claire Coutinho, great capable people.
So is. There an argument for skipping a
generation. I don't.
Well, I don't do. You mean by that 2024 intake?
There's clearly an argument. Yeah, potentially or just
younger. No, I don't think it would make
any difference to do that unless you unless you were able to
change your strategy at the same time, which the Conservative
Party I don't think is about to do.
So no is actually the answer. I I would not.
I think that setting down the route of removing can be to
replace it with someone else who people also won't have heard of
isn't a particularly good idea. Well, that.
Does that does apply to James Kevin as?
Well, sorry, I didn't say that it should drop by.
So you asked me who I was impressed by and what?
Recommends him to you. Is that you?
I'm not in favour of doing it at all, but if you.
Had to. But I don't have to.
OK, Therese well. If you had to.
I think there's some interesting thought processes.
I mean, Nick, Timothy, I think is brings a lot of interesting
thinking to, to to that. I mean people, a lot of people
have different backstories and how they've got into into
politics, got into Parliament. I think I don't want to set
hairs running particularly. I think Kemi made some changes
to her team. I think Helen Whiteley's doing a
good job at DWPI, think she's thinking things through in a
good systematic way. So I'm I'm not looking for other
people to try and knock Chemi off.
One aspect of her, what she's doing I really approve of, which
is she is giving a bit of serious thought to how things
will work. She does think that is a bit of
the conservative bill that I've, I've obviously said I don't
think it's quite the right strategy.
That bit I'm really strongly for.
So funny if the the bit that people have given her the most
grief for, which is, you know, why are we waiting for her to
say things? She does seem to me, and the
Wolfson report was an example of that on the ECHR, not a policy
that I agree with, but some trouble.
They took some trouble to, to see whether the policy, what the
implications of it would be. That's a good strategy.
Just finally, I mean, I know you've both attended a hell of a
lot of conferences. Is this the emptiest conference
that you've seen in terms of the conference stands here, the tiny
hall, the number of delegates? Well, I, my very first was back
in 1991 when I was a student. So I think it is, it is slow
down on members numbers. But what I always love, what I
love coming to conference is to get to talk to the members.
And understandably we were in government for so long, quite a
lot of people get squeezed out. You know, the lobbyists were
here, they're not. It was very busy last year, I
think because of the leadership contest and not quite the same
this year, but I actually enjoy the opportunity to go and talk
and see what's going on in the grass roots in different parts.
Of time. More time to talk to fewer
people. I went to the 1989 SDP
conference in Coventry and I was on the national executive and
almost nobody spoke and we had to go and rush into the bars to
get people so the debates would last long enough.
And then during the last, after the end of the leaders speech,
David Owen's speech, we all stood up, moved our chair back
and knocked the platform over. So this conference is not the
emptiest conference I've ever. But it's the emptiest Tory.
It's still. Expensive to come to Manchester.
I mean, genuinely, those sound like an invasion.
I haven't been around, but when you saw the pictures of Mel
Stride's conference, it clearly was.
Yeah, clearly was. And that's not that surprising.
I mean that all we're seeing is what you can read in the opinion
polls. Just.
The fringe is still busy, the fringe is busy, and the fringe
has always been the most interesting bit of.
Conference, I mean, I don't, I mean, I think that's a
reasonable observation, but I'm I'm not sure that it changes
anything to make it. We know that the Conservative
Party's in a lot of trouble, OK, But I still had, there's still
something in the Conservative idea which and potential breadth
that gives it some possibility for recovery, even though it
looks distant to me at the moment.
Danny Finkelstein, Torres Coffee, Thank you both very much
for joining us. That is it for the forecast.
Thank you very much for watching.