1 00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:03,720 I can't see how he can survive. Most of the public just think 2 00:00:03,720 --> 00:00:06,280 that the past week or so has confirmed everything that they 3 00:00:06,280 --> 00:00:09,200 thought that there's one rule for the rich and powerful and 4 00:00:09,200 --> 00:00:14,560 another rule for everyone else. We're in real danger now of a 5 00:00:14,560 --> 00:00:18,840 fundamentally decent Prime Minister being ousted for an 6 00:00:18,920 --> 00:00:21,880 error judgement which he made, along with almost every national 7 00:00:21,880 --> 00:00:24,960 newspaper writer, lots and lots of columnists, on the base of 8 00:00:24,960 --> 00:00:26,480 the same facts that are available at time. 9 00:00:26,680 --> 00:00:29,640 It makes it very important that the next leader who comes in 10 00:00:29,640 --> 00:00:32,119 comes in absolutely determined to clean up politics. 11 00:00:32,159 --> 00:00:35,960 If there is a leadership contest, is it conceivable that 12 00:00:35,960 --> 00:00:39,280 Angela Rayner can be forgiven for having broken the rules on 13 00:00:39,280 --> 00:00:41,720 tax and brought back as Prime Minister? 14 00:00:45,520 --> 00:00:47,080 Hello and welcome to the forecast. 15 00:00:47,120 --> 00:00:50,480 The government is in full on leadership crisis with pressure 16 00:00:50,480 --> 00:00:52,240 building on Keir Starmer to resign. 17 00:00:52,520 --> 00:00:55,600 The Scottish Labour leader Anas Sawa was the first major figure 18 00:00:55,600 --> 00:00:58,680 to go over the top, saying there have been too many mistakes and 19 00:00:58,680 --> 00:01:01,840 Starmer should go. A lot of the cabinets are out 20 00:01:01,840 --> 00:01:05,440 declaring their support for the PM now, but it is clear things 21 00:01:05,440 --> 00:01:08,120 are moving fast. Starmer's chief of staff Morgan 22 00:01:08,120 --> 00:01:11,280 McSweeney quit on Sunday over his advice to appointing Peter 23 00:01:11,280 --> 00:01:14,200 Mandelson as U.S. ambassador. Today, the number 10 director of 24 00:01:14,200 --> 00:01:16,240 communications, Tim Allen, also quit. 25 00:01:16,440 --> 00:01:19,600 So what next? And if Starmer is going, what 26 00:01:19,640 --> 00:01:22,480 and who should follow? Joining me, Polly Toynbee, a 27 00:01:22,480 --> 00:01:25,120 columnist at The Guardian, Tom Baldwin, former Labour 28 00:01:25,120 --> 00:01:28,080 communications chief, who has also written a biography of Sir 29 00:01:28,080 --> 00:01:31,200 Keir Starmer and Luke Trill, executive director of the more 30 00:01:31,200 --> 00:01:34,560 in common UK think tank Polly. I mean, first of all, in terms 31 00:01:34,560 --> 00:01:38,400 of what should happen, I mean, you are, you are sort of with a 32 00:01:38,400 --> 00:01:41,920 heavy heart now saying Starmer's got to go. 33 00:01:42,240 --> 00:01:43,920 I've always been a strong supporter of his. 34 00:01:43,920 --> 00:01:48,280 I thought he was going to be the great stabiliser but I think as 35 00:01:48,280 --> 00:01:52,680 we've reached this point I can't see how he can survive. 36 00:01:52,880 --> 00:01:56,640 How do you campaign in Scotland when the well respected head of 37 00:01:56,640 --> 00:01:59,280 the Scottish Labour Party has called for him to go? 38 00:01:59,760 --> 00:02:04,040 I think you know as one you've got one resignation after 39 00:02:04,040 --> 00:02:06,280 another. There's a way you reach a 40 00:02:06,280 --> 00:02:08,120 tipping point, and I think we're at it. 41 00:02:08,120 --> 00:02:09,800 So it's inevitable now in in your mind. 42 00:02:10,240 --> 00:02:13,560 Well, nothing's ever inevitable in politics, but it looks that 43 00:02:13,560 --> 00:02:17,080 way. Tom, I mean you, you have been 44 00:02:17,080 --> 00:02:20,520 one of the few voices out there saying he shouldn't have to go, 45 00:02:21,520 --> 00:02:25,440 he shouldn't be blamed. It it looks like one way or 46 00:02:25,440 --> 00:02:28,960 another time is up, isn't it? I don't know one of the few 47 00:02:28,960 --> 00:02:31,240 voices, as you just said, yeah, there's got a lot of the cabinet 48 00:02:31,240 --> 00:02:33,520 coming out. That's just today, but it's 49 00:02:33,920 --> 00:02:36,600 taken a while. Yeah, well, I think there's 50 00:02:36,600 --> 00:02:39,800 probably more support for Kirstan remaining than you would 51 00:02:40,400 --> 00:02:43,200 think from I have a sort of quick view of the media at the 52 00:02:43,200 --> 00:02:44,840 moment. You know, there is this sort of 53 00:02:44,840 --> 00:02:47,920 excitement and Glee at the idea we're re entering that cycle of 54 00:02:47,920 --> 00:02:49,840 getting rid of our Prime Minister every one to two years. 55 00:02:49,840 --> 00:02:52,400 I think the rest of the world must think we're nuts. 56 00:02:52,440 --> 00:02:55,400 We begin to look like Italy or something in the 1980s and 90s. 57 00:02:55,920 --> 00:02:59,600 And yeah, we have a government with a majority, 260 working 58 00:02:59,600 --> 00:03:03,440 majority 263 1/2 years ago to the next general election, less 59 00:03:03,680 --> 00:03:05,280 than 1/3 of the way for his apartment. 60 00:03:05,960 --> 00:03:11,000 And we're in real danger now of a fundamentally decent Prime 61 00:03:11,000 --> 00:03:15,400 Minister being ousted for an error judgement, which he made 62 00:03:15,760 --> 00:03:18,440 along with almost every national newspaper writer, lots and lots 63 00:03:18,440 --> 00:03:22,840 of columnists. Nigel Farage named a few on the 64 00:03:22,840 --> 00:03:24,600 basis of the same facts that are available at time. 65 00:03:25,480 --> 00:03:27,720 And that's pretty identifying, I think. 66 00:03:28,360 --> 00:03:31,040 But but do you, do you feel it slipping away now? 67 00:03:31,480 --> 00:03:33,920 I think it's becoming more likely that Keir Starmer is 68 00:03:33,920 --> 00:03:35,920 going to go. I'm not saying I think people 69 00:03:35,920 --> 00:03:38,000 are expressing certainty about what happens next. 70 00:03:38,000 --> 00:03:40,920 So usually very often end up looking foolish. 71 00:03:41,640 --> 00:03:43,920 It is looking more likely you have to go and be replaced. 72 00:03:44,120 --> 00:03:47,040 As I said, a piece of reputable observer the other day, but 73 00:03:47,040 --> 00:03:48,920 simultaneously find it make it harder. 74 00:03:48,920 --> 00:03:51,120 This the nature of the scandals make it harder to find someone 75 00:03:51,120 --> 00:03:54,360 to replace him. The idea that if the great sin 76 00:03:54,360 --> 00:03:57,400 is being too close and too trusting a Peter Madison, you go 77 00:03:57,400 --> 00:03:59,440 for where streeting might seem that odd. 78 00:03:59,960 --> 00:04:03,760 The idea that at a time when you know, ethics being raised in 79 00:04:03,760 --> 00:04:06,680 public life again, the automatic choice then is Angela Rayner, 80 00:04:06,680 --> 00:04:09,840 who had to resign, well five months ago over an ethical 81 00:04:09,840 --> 00:04:10,800 issue. Now let's not have a go at 82 00:04:10,800 --> 00:04:13,400 either of them. But I think there is there's 83 00:04:13,400 --> 00:04:16,000 something weird about this particular story which makes it 84 00:04:16,000 --> 00:04:19,640 more likely that Kier goes and harder to replace him. 85 00:04:20,160 --> 00:04:23,840 Luke, I mean, the public are often ahead on these kinds of 86 00:04:23,840 --> 00:04:27,040 questions. Where are they on on this? 87 00:04:27,560 --> 00:04:30,720 I think most of the public just think that the past week or so 88 00:04:30,720 --> 00:04:34,280 has confirmed everything that they thought about politics, 89 00:04:34,280 --> 00:04:37,320 that the system is rigged, that there's one rule for the rich 90 00:04:37,320 --> 00:04:40,840 and powerful and another rule for everyone else, and that the 91 00:04:40,840 --> 00:04:43,520 system itself is addicted to chaos. 92 00:04:43,520 --> 00:04:46,680 So and I think the interesting thing is when we talk to people 93 00:04:46,680 --> 00:04:49,720 in focus groups, it's quite clear this goes beyond, in the 94 00:04:49,720 --> 00:04:52,600 public's mind, one Prime Minister or one government. 95 00:04:52,600 --> 00:04:55,960 It's a sense that politics, you know, is chaos Now. 96 00:04:55,960 --> 00:04:59,040 It can't deliver that. The government isn't in control 97 00:04:59,040 --> 00:05:02,480 of events and that is what is driving people to say, do you 98 00:05:02,480 --> 00:05:03,840 know what? We've had enough of trying to 99 00:05:03,840 --> 00:05:05,840 preserve and improve our institutions. 100 00:05:05,960 --> 00:05:08,560 We want to roll the dice on something new and we don't mind 101 00:05:08,560 --> 00:05:10,960 if it burns it all down. I mean, Alastair Campbell has 102 00:05:10,960 --> 00:05:13,920 sort of raised this question in the last 24 hours about, you 103 00:05:13,920 --> 00:05:16,000 know, is Britain becoming ungovernable? 104 00:05:16,360 --> 00:05:18,160 I think that's the right question to ask. 105 00:05:18,880 --> 00:05:21,680 As Tom said, Keir Starmer, a very decent man. 106 00:05:21,760 --> 00:05:25,080 Nobody is impugning his morals, abusing his judgement and 107 00:05:25,080 --> 00:05:26,600 whether he's made the right calls. 108 00:05:26,880 --> 00:05:30,480 But a thoroughly decent man who was uncontaminated by any kind 109 00:05:30,480 --> 00:05:34,200 of the kind of filth people suspect about about politics. 110 00:05:34,560 --> 00:05:38,000 And you do wonder whether in fact whoever takes over will, 111 00:05:38,000 --> 00:05:40,720 within a short time, they might get a little bounce, within a 112 00:05:40,720 --> 00:05:45,320 short time, find themselves also caught by this public spirit of 113 00:05:45,320 --> 00:05:48,840 hating politicians, hating Westminster, refusing to be 114 00:05:48,840 --> 00:05:51,200 governed in a way. But to what extent, I mean, 115 00:05:51,640 --> 00:05:57,000 let's jump if you like to say, OK, it looks like Keir Starmer 116 00:05:57,000 --> 00:05:59,600 might have to go. So, so let's talk about the what 117 00:05:59,600 --> 00:06:03,520 next and the the people who might might be in the line as 118 00:06:03,520 --> 00:06:08,240 Tom says. I mean, you know, this scandal 119 00:06:08,560 --> 00:06:11,400 is going to keep unravelling for quite some time. 120 00:06:11,840 --> 00:06:15,440 How does a new leader avoid being drowned by it as well? 121 00:06:15,880 --> 00:06:19,880 Well, it's quite unlikely that a new leader will be involved in 122 00:06:19,880 --> 00:06:22,800 the particular mandals and scandal and the papers that come 123 00:06:22,800 --> 00:06:24,960 out, it's all referred. But isn't it beyond the 124 00:06:24,960 --> 00:06:26,040 specifics? I mean, it isn't. 125 00:06:26,160 --> 00:06:28,440 I mean, you know, as, as everyone has said, you know, 126 00:06:28,920 --> 00:06:33,520 Keir Starmer's mistakes with Mandelson are, are limited. 127 00:06:33,760 --> 00:06:36,200 You know, it's not that he was part of that scandal. 128 00:06:36,560 --> 00:06:39,480 The the point is that the scandal is so vast and so grubby 129 00:06:39,480 --> 00:06:43,120 and so awful that it is tainting the whole government kind of no 130 00:06:43,120 --> 00:06:46,080 matter what, because most people don't go into the, the reeds of 131 00:06:46,440 --> 00:06:49,280 exactly who said what, who knew what, who recommended who, who 132 00:06:49,280 --> 00:06:51,680 is Morgan McSweeney. It's just this is a massive 133 00:06:51,680 --> 00:06:53,600 scandal and it taints the Labour government. 134 00:06:53,640 --> 00:06:55,880 How is that not going to affect the next leader as well? 135 00:06:56,040 --> 00:06:58,960 It makes it very important that the next leader who comes in 136 00:06:58,960 --> 00:07:01,560 comes in absolutely determined to clean up politics. 137 00:07:01,760 --> 00:07:04,560 Labour said it in the manifesto, Keir Starmer said it, but 138 00:07:04,560 --> 00:07:06,760 they've done very little. Not the sort of things people 139 00:07:06,760 --> 00:07:09,600 notice whoever comes in has to say, right? 140 00:07:09,600 --> 00:07:13,280 Take money out of politics. Really dramatic. 141 00:07:13,280 --> 00:07:16,760 You know, trade unions won't fund Labour, business won't fund 142 00:07:16,760 --> 00:07:19,440 Tories. From now on we're going to have 143 00:07:19,440 --> 00:07:23,040 only small donations from members and of course a certain 144 00:07:23,040 --> 00:07:24,920 amount from the government as well to support. 145 00:07:25,080 --> 00:07:27,320 I mean, isn't, isn't not enough money in politics one of the 146 00:07:27,320 --> 00:07:29,120 reasons Mandelson was doing what he was doing? 147 00:07:30,200 --> 00:07:34,080 Well, you know, Mandelson felt he wasn't paid enough, you know, 148 00:07:34,160 --> 00:07:36,000 as a, as a, as a minister. That's why he always wanted 149 00:07:36,000 --> 00:07:38,040 these lavish houses that he couldn't really afford. 150 00:07:38,320 --> 00:07:40,120 Well, that's Mandelson's character. 151 00:07:40,120 --> 00:07:42,880 I think a lot of people in politics don't expect to be very 152 00:07:42,880 --> 00:07:46,280 rich, but he plainly expected himself to be filthy rich. 153 00:07:46,480 --> 00:07:49,080 He thought it was just fine and most people don't. 154 00:07:49,520 --> 00:07:53,480 I think that whoever is the Labour leader has to make their 155 00:07:53,480 --> 00:07:57,160 signal a clean up and it's not that difficult to do, you just 156 00:07:57,160 --> 00:07:59,000 have to be brave. Is it? 157 00:07:59,000 --> 00:08:01,920 Is it, you know, is it doable, you know, in a way that the 158 00:08:01,920 --> 00:08:03,480 public will believe, do you think? 159 00:08:03,480 --> 00:08:07,120 I mean, we heard Gordon Brown at the weekend talking about his 160 00:08:07,440 --> 00:08:09,440 plan for decontaminating politics. 161 00:08:09,440 --> 00:08:13,320 It was a plan for Keir Starmer. And Keir Starmer hasn't done it 162 00:08:13,320 --> 00:08:16,840 all. Well, strangely, I think, you 163 00:08:16,840 --> 00:08:18,920 know, I was thinking this in September, there's a sort of 164 00:08:18,920 --> 00:08:20,840 departure of Peter Mamus and Angela Rayner in quick 165 00:08:20,840 --> 00:08:24,360 succession were an example, I think of a Prime Minister who 166 00:08:24,360 --> 00:08:27,840 actually does hold have very, very high standards. 167 00:08:27,840 --> 00:08:31,600 When new facts to come before him, he says, right, well, 168 00:08:31,760 --> 00:08:34,640 you're out the door rather than clinging to people out of 169 00:08:34,640 --> 00:08:38,320 loyalty. And and so I, I think there is a 170 00:08:38,320 --> 00:08:40,600 sort of different ethical standard to this Prime Minister. 171 00:08:40,600 --> 00:08:44,000 But you're right. I don't think that's how this 172 00:08:44,000 --> 00:08:47,320 terrible world of perceptions that that that we live in. 173 00:08:47,560 --> 00:08:52,360 He, he, he, he, he's being seen. My worry about dedicating the 174 00:08:52,360 --> 00:08:55,520 next three years to sort of a degree of constitutional change 175 00:08:55,520 --> 00:08:57,720 and clean up of politics is that sounds great now. 176 00:08:57,720 --> 00:08:59,720 It sounded great when we were talking about the expenses 177 00:08:59,720 --> 00:09:02,040 scandal. In the end, I don't think that's 178 00:09:02,040 --> 00:09:07,160 what most people care about at home and what most people vote 179 00:09:07,160 --> 00:09:09,640 on in the next election. I think people are worried 180 00:09:09,640 --> 00:09:11,240 about, you know, paying electricity bills. 181 00:09:11,240 --> 00:09:12,680 They're worried about their schools, they're worried about 182 00:09:12,680 --> 00:09:14,440 their NHS, they're worried about what's happening abroad. 183 00:09:15,080 --> 00:09:19,040 And, you know, part of the problem with politics is, is 184 00:09:19,040 --> 00:09:22,720 actually the way it's eating itself, because only ever 185 00:09:22,720 --> 00:09:25,480 talking about politics rather than about the people. 186 00:09:25,640 --> 00:09:27,920 So yes, I am in favour of higher ethical standards. 187 00:09:27,920 --> 00:09:30,600 I am in favour of saying, you know, we'll have stronger rules. 188 00:09:30,880 --> 00:09:33,320 I don't think that should be the definition of what Labour does 189 00:09:33,320 --> 00:09:35,880 for the next three years, but. Is it politics easing itself 190 00:09:35,880 --> 00:09:38,680 when Keir Starmer, as you say, was totally focused on the cost 191 00:09:38,680 --> 00:09:42,520 of living in recent times? But that's not how. 192 00:09:43,040 --> 00:09:45,800 He is perceived and the world outside, yeah, which is very, 193 00:09:45,800 --> 00:09:48,800 very dangerous. And yet when Luke does his focus 194 00:09:48,800 --> 00:09:52,440 groups, he comes out as absolutely untrustworthy and 195 00:09:52,440 --> 00:09:56,080 unpopular. It is quite difficult to be 196 00:09:56,080 --> 00:09:59,920 perceived as focused on these really important policy issues 197 00:10:00,440 --> 00:10:03,480 when no one's reporting them. I mean, yeah. 198 00:10:03,640 --> 00:10:04,840 There's, there's. It's just not true. 199 00:10:04,960 --> 00:10:07,480 Well, I mean, it is. It's kind of true that that that 200 00:10:07,760 --> 00:10:10,040 you know. I would His message is 201 00:10:10,040 --> 00:10:11,320 constantly on the news every day. 202 00:10:11,920 --> 00:10:14,200 But if if you see he does events, you know, did an event 203 00:10:14,200 --> 00:10:16,800 on Thursday, it's actually quite an important speech about prime 204 00:10:16,800 --> 00:10:19,520 place, about national identity. Nothing. 205 00:10:19,520 --> 00:10:21,440 It was all about Peter Manson. Peter Manson. 206 00:10:21,640 --> 00:10:23,440 And he knew that. He knew that wouldn't make the 207 00:10:23,440 --> 00:10:24,800 front pages. But I think it. 208 00:10:24,800 --> 00:10:28,680 Was the middle of the storm. Yeah, but but there is a degree 209 00:10:28,680 --> 00:10:32,280 to which every policy announcement now it's reported 210 00:10:32,280 --> 00:10:34,040 on by the lobby rather than specialists. 211 00:10:34,240 --> 00:10:37,440 It's done on the basis of what is the cunning strategy behind 212 00:10:37,440 --> 00:10:39,480 us, how they're tricking you? Or does this help bolster 213 00:10:39,480 --> 00:10:41,440 someone's leadership prospects or who's up, who's down? 214 00:10:41,640 --> 00:10:45,160 Not about the outcome on people out there. 215 00:10:45,200 --> 00:10:47,800 And that is one of the things that that separates people from 216 00:10:47,800 --> 00:10:49,920 politics. They look at this village going 217 00:10:49,920 --> 00:10:51,640 on talking about itself endlessly. 218 00:10:51,640 --> 00:10:53,280 And I think they're not talking about me. 219 00:10:53,320 --> 00:10:56,720 They don't care about me. Luke, I mean, why do you think 220 00:10:56,720 --> 00:11:01,120 people don't respond to Starmer's message over the last 221 00:11:01,120 --> 00:11:03,080 few months and don't seem to believe it? 222 00:11:03,200 --> 00:11:04,720 Well, I just, I think there's a couple of things. 223 00:11:04,720 --> 00:11:08,840 I think firstly, the government got off to a very bad start. 224 00:11:08,840 --> 00:11:13,240 I think the combination of the Rose Garden speech, which seemed 225 00:11:13,240 --> 00:11:16,600 to promise more of the same freebie gate, which made it look 226 00:11:16,600 --> 00:11:19,240 like the promise to be a different kind of politics, and 227 00:11:19,240 --> 00:11:22,560 the Winter fuel allowance basically tainted them from the 228 00:11:22,560 --> 00:11:24,600 outset. You've got quite a short window 229 00:11:24,760 --> 00:11:28,640 to connect with the public now. And what that did was it made it 230 00:11:28,640 --> 00:11:31,400 much more difficult to communicate the positive agenda 231 00:11:31,400 --> 00:11:33,920 because Tom's absolutely right. When we poll on things like 232 00:11:33,920 --> 00:11:37,400 workers rights, renters rights, the cost of living measures in 233 00:11:37,400 --> 00:11:41,200 the budget, so prescriptions, train fares, energy levy, they 234 00:11:41,200 --> 00:11:44,360 are popular, but they have nowhere near the level of cut 235 00:11:44,360 --> 00:11:47,840 through of those negatives. So things like as I said, the 236 00:11:47,840 --> 00:11:50,080 winter fuel, farmers, inheritance tax, National 237 00:11:50,080 --> 00:11:53,000 Insurance. So I think it's a combination of 238 00:11:53,000 --> 00:11:57,520 self-inflicted wounds. But then also, you know, I 239 00:11:57,560 --> 00:12:00,040 thought one of the most baffling things to happen was the 240 00:12:00,040 --> 00:12:03,440 briefing before Christmas when just sort of out of nowhere this 241 00:12:03,440 --> 00:12:05,360 attack was launched on West Streeting. 242 00:12:05,400 --> 00:12:07,920 Because when we then split people in focus groups to say 243 00:12:08,120 --> 00:12:10,440 why are they fighting amongst themselves again, it sounds like 244 00:12:10,440 --> 00:12:13,360 the Tories all over again. So I think it's a combination of 245 00:12:13,360 --> 00:12:15,520 things not cutting through but not having helped themselves 246 00:12:15,520 --> 00:12:19,800 either. I agree that, and I think almost 247 00:12:19,800 --> 00:12:24,520 the original sin of this government was the noise coming 248 00:12:24,520 --> 00:12:26,800 out down St. in those first few weeks wasn't about changing the 249 00:12:26,800 --> 00:12:29,160 country. There's all this background 250 00:12:29,200 --> 00:12:32,320 anonymous briefing against Sue Grey about where their desks 251 00:12:32,320 --> 00:12:34,480 are, what their job title was, what their pay levels were. 252 00:12:34,920 --> 00:12:37,640 And I think that gives the impression to the public that 253 00:12:37,640 --> 00:12:39,280 you're interested in yourselves, not them. 254 00:12:39,720 --> 00:12:42,200 And so, so I, I do think there's a kind of culture running 255 00:12:42,200 --> 00:12:46,080 through the advisor class, journalists, politicians now 256 00:12:46,560 --> 00:12:49,160 where honestly, you know, they're talking to themselves 257 00:12:49,160 --> 00:12:51,760 about themselves and they get very, very excited about it and 258 00:12:51,760 --> 00:12:55,840 the public look at the spectacle and are recoil from it. 259 00:12:55,840 --> 00:12:58,080 And I don't, I don't, it doesn't really mean sort of populist 260 00:12:58,080 --> 00:13:00,440 thing. It's just, why are you always 261 00:13:00,480 --> 00:13:02,640 obsessing about what happens in Westminster and what happens in 262 00:13:02,640 --> 00:13:04,600 my life? There is one quite exceptional 263 00:13:04,600 --> 00:13:08,680 thing about the times that we're in now which effects absolutely 264 00:13:08,680 --> 00:13:12,000 the way Labour people think, the way anybody who's not on the 265 00:13:12,000 --> 00:13:17,040 right thinks, which is the fear that Farage will take over, that 266 00:13:17,040 --> 00:13:20,080 the far right, the hard right, will take over at the next 267 00:13:20,080 --> 00:13:23,720 election. And the idea that and a very 268 00:13:23,720 --> 00:13:28,200 unpopular leader can go on just because he's decent, they've got 269 00:13:28,200 --> 00:13:32,080 to find somebody who has a good chance of preventing that. 270 00:13:32,080 --> 00:13:34,000 That that's what makes this urgent for you, is it? 271 00:13:34,000 --> 00:13:35,720 It makes the the threat for Nigel Farage. 272 00:13:35,720 --> 00:13:37,840 Urgent. Why he's under such pressure. 273 00:13:38,120 --> 00:13:39,960 More pressure. He, he, he hasn't been given 274 00:13:39,960 --> 00:13:41,560 time. He might have been, if it 275 00:13:41,560 --> 00:13:43,040 weren't for the sense of emergence. 276 00:13:43,040 --> 00:13:45,360 Just in terms of the lessons, Luke, I mean for, for you know, 277 00:13:45,360 --> 00:13:47,320 whatever comes next. I mean, you mentioned these 278 00:13:47,320 --> 00:13:49,720 early mistakes, winter fuel payment, farmers, inheritance 279 00:13:49,720 --> 00:13:52,840 tax. Can you explain why these are 280 00:13:52,840 --> 00:13:56,840 nationally so unpopular when actually they didn't affect huge 281 00:13:56,840 --> 00:13:59,160 numbers of people? They were both policies that 282 00:13:59,160 --> 00:14:00,720 could have been intellectually defended. 283 00:14:01,680 --> 00:14:04,600 You know, you've got a huge gap between the young and the the 284 00:14:04,600 --> 00:14:07,120 old, where the young are the ones who are struggling and the 285 00:14:07,120 --> 00:14:09,480 old are the ones who are doing pretty well off. 286 00:14:09,480 --> 00:14:12,440 Why were these not policies that could have been justified and 287 00:14:12,440 --> 00:14:14,840 been successful and suddenly made him unpopular with 288 00:14:14,840 --> 00:14:15,800 everybody? Yeah. 289 00:14:15,800 --> 00:14:18,200 So I think, look, I mean, let's take winter fuel allowance for 290 00:14:18,200 --> 00:14:19,760 instance. I think there's a perception, 291 00:14:19,760 --> 00:14:22,160 particularly in wonk world that there are lots of young people 292 00:14:22,160 --> 00:14:25,440 like hoping to stick it to the oldies. 293 00:14:25,440 --> 00:14:27,960 And actually when you speak to young people, I'm worried about 294 00:14:27,960 --> 00:14:31,200 my Gran, I'm worried about older people. 295 00:14:31,200 --> 00:14:34,080 And I think the problem with the winter fuel was it struck at the 296 00:14:34,080 --> 00:14:37,000 heart of that in every focus group it was older people have 297 00:14:37,000 --> 00:14:38,920 put into the country, they've worked hard. 298 00:14:39,120 --> 00:14:41,520 And people saying things at the time, like why are they going 299 00:14:41,520 --> 00:14:44,560 after the elderly who can't fight back now as it actually 300 00:14:44,560 --> 00:14:45,920 happens? You know, older people are very 301 00:14:45,920 --> 00:14:49,360 good, I think making the case. But it was to go after such a 302 00:14:49,360 --> 00:14:52,720 politically salient popular group to put the threshold so 303 00:14:52,720 --> 00:14:54,160 low. I think if you'd started with a 304 00:14:54,160 --> 00:14:56,640 higher threshold, you could have got it a lot of. 305 00:14:56,680 --> 00:14:59,160 US had said that at the time, for heaven's sakes, lift the 306 00:14:59,160 --> 00:15:01,040 threshold and then it would have been different. 307 00:15:01,040 --> 00:15:03,880 You'd have said, well why am I getting a winter fuel allowance? 308 00:15:03,880 --> 00:15:05,920 Exactly. And farmers, but farmers was the 309 00:15:05,920 --> 00:15:08,440 same like really politically popular group. 310 00:15:08,440 --> 00:15:11,400 People like farmers, they're seen as, you know, custodians of 311 00:15:11,400 --> 00:15:14,400 the countryside and our food supply, particularly since the 312 00:15:14,400 --> 00:15:17,440 pandemic. And I think if you go back to 313 00:15:17,440 --> 00:15:20,120 the original reason why this has happened, it's because of that 314 00:15:20,120 --> 00:15:23,360 manifesto pledge on tax. So they boxed themselves in, 315 00:15:23,360 --> 00:15:26,480 unable to do income tax, National Insurance or VAT, which 316 00:15:26,480 --> 00:15:29,760 meant they had to target specific groups, all of whom 317 00:15:29,760 --> 00:15:31,680 elicit a certain amount of public sympathy. 318 00:15:32,000 --> 00:15:35,160 Could a new leader, could a new leader, break with that and say 319 00:15:35,440 --> 00:15:37,480 that was a manifesto for different times? 320 00:15:37,840 --> 00:15:40,200 I'm going to come in with a different economic policy. 321 00:15:40,680 --> 00:15:42,520 I think it's hard to do it without an election. 322 00:15:43,320 --> 00:15:46,520 I just pick up on this because I think the the, the other problem 323 00:15:46,520 --> 00:15:51,720 with it, a lot of the mistakes they've made is they've sort of 324 00:15:51,720 --> 00:15:55,720 thrown themselves or inserted themselves into what they think 325 00:15:55,720 --> 00:15:59,600 is an existing media controversy because that's kind of what you 326 00:15:59,600 --> 00:16:04,040 do in opposition to get noticed without a sense of who they are, 327 00:16:04,040 --> 00:16:06,680 what they're defending, what the governments about. 328 00:16:06,680 --> 00:16:10,840 So things like winter fuel allowance seen as tough and but 329 00:16:10,960 --> 00:16:12,680 you didn't have a story about yourselves there. 330 00:16:12,840 --> 00:16:15,320 I think the ID cards are a perfect example here. 331 00:16:15,320 --> 00:16:18,440 You've got a piece of perfectly good sort of technocratic 332 00:16:18,440 --> 00:16:22,280 mutton, if you like, which they dressed up in this really scary 333 00:16:22,280 --> 00:16:23,560 ways. It's going to be a way of 334 00:16:23,560 --> 00:16:26,640 hammering illegal working by illegal immigrants. 335 00:16:26,640 --> 00:16:28,920 And and it isn't really. And you managed to alienate 336 00:16:29,040 --> 00:16:32,520 almost everybody right across the political spectrum because 337 00:16:32,520 --> 00:16:35,640 you were sort of playing to these little Daily Mail Day, 338 00:16:35,640 --> 00:16:38,960 Telegraph, Times, Sun Express tropes, you know, disability 339 00:16:38,960 --> 00:16:40,320 reforms. Disability reforms were the 340 00:16:40,320 --> 00:16:42,000 same. It was playing into the game 341 00:16:42,040 --> 00:16:45,920 that, you know, we're all going to be tough on strangers. 342 00:16:46,040 --> 00:16:48,120 We've actually. Having isn't this about the lack 343 00:16:48,120 --> 00:16:50,240 of their own story to tell? And this is the problem that we 344 00:16:50,240 --> 00:16:51,040 highlighted. It's. 345 00:16:51,120 --> 00:16:53,640 For the election that they they only focused on winning the 346 00:16:53,640 --> 00:16:55,600 election. They didn't focus on what they 347 00:16:55,600 --> 00:16:57,000 were going to do afterwards and how they were. 348 00:16:57,000 --> 00:16:59,160 Going to I think it's not just the absence of a story to tell. 349 00:16:59,160 --> 00:17:01,560 It's actually I come back to this point, try make about our 350 00:17:01,560 --> 00:17:05,200 political culture. It's enough to be getting column 351 00:17:05,200 --> 00:17:09,160 inches and being, you know, playing into sort of an existing 352 00:17:09,160 --> 00:17:11,480 controversy. That's the temptation of 353 00:17:11,480 --> 00:17:13,920 politics rather than actually building an argument and an 354 00:17:13,920 --> 00:17:16,440 identity about who you are. But isn't there also something 355 00:17:16,440 --> 00:17:19,400 particular to Kia Starmer which he has deliberately eschewed, 356 00:17:19,400 --> 00:17:22,240 this Starmerism kind of vision? And actually it means when you 357 00:17:22,240 --> 00:17:24,720 speak to the public, they've got no idea what he stands for. 358 00:17:24,720 --> 00:17:27,319 And he becomes defined by these U turns. 359 00:17:27,319 --> 00:17:30,160 Whereas at least if he'd come forward and said this is my 360 00:17:30,160 --> 00:17:32,600 vision for Britain, this is what I want to achieve, he'd have 361 00:17:32,600 --> 00:17:34,240 something to sort of stand behind and really. 362 00:17:34,600 --> 00:17:36,880 I don't think, I don't think it's vision because as you know, 363 00:17:37,360 --> 00:17:39,400 vision is a weird word of politics. 364 00:17:39,400 --> 00:17:41,920 And you know, we are a lot of people don't have visions. 365 00:17:41,920 --> 00:17:44,320 Why should politicians? But but, but, but, but, but he, 366 00:17:44,320 --> 00:17:47,080 I think he does have values. I think he could have done much, 367 00:17:47,080 --> 00:17:51,640 much more and, you know, should do much, much more to project 368 00:17:52,360 --> 00:17:55,240 those values in his decision. Sometimes we just get these CA 369 00:17:55,240 --> 00:17:58,640 bullet points and I and I, I, I, we don't have that connected. 370 00:17:58,640 --> 00:18:00,800 But this keeps kind of. You keep talking about how 371 00:18:00,800 --> 00:18:03,800 important the values are. The most important thing was a 372 00:18:03,800 --> 00:18:06,480 plan for how you were going to transform Britain and they 373 00:18:06,480 --> 00:18:09,040 didn't have one. A lot of the things they do are 374 00:18:09,040 --> 00:18:12,360 very transformative. The tragedy of this is that 375 00:18:12,360 --> 00:18:14,840 people may just forget because they've hardly noticed. 376 00:18:15,160 --> 00:18:18,080 The best things that Labour have done, which is rent controls, it 377 00:18:18,080 --> 00:18:21,360 is workers rights. You know, the the unions have 378 00:18:21,360 --> 00:18:24,520 not come forward and praised Labour enough for the most 379 00:18:24,520 --> 00:18:28,920 radical working rights. We're about to have the biggest 380 00:18:28,920 --> 00:18:31,720 fall in child poverty that's ever happened within one 381 00:18:31,720 --> 00:18:33,720 government, within one parliament. 382 00:18:34,480 --> 00:18:37,040 You know, a great deal of good has been done, but some. 383 00:18:37,040 --> 00:18:38,120 Because of the two child benefits. 384 00:18:38,120 --> 00:18:42,040 You never, yes, you're never quite sure whether Keir Starmer 385 00:18:42,200 --> 00:18:45,320 wants to talk up the good he's done for fear exactly of the 386 00:18:45,320 --> 00:18:47,520 right wing press. OK, well, I mean, you know, 387 00:18:47,880 --> 00:18:52,680 right now if Starmer goes, there are two big figures who are in 388 00:18:52,680 --> 00:18:55,360 play, Angela Rayner and we're streeting. 389 00:18:55,600 --> 00:18:58,520 I mean, Tommy, you say, you know, the trouble with Angela 390 00:18:58,520 --> 00:19:01,840 Rayner is that this is a, you know, we're in the middle of a, 391 00:19:02,840 --> 00:19:05,600 a resignation crisis caused by probity in politics. 392 00:19:05,920 --> 00:19:09,560 I mean, is it conceivable that somebody who had to step down 393 00:19:09,560 --> 00:19:14,080 because she couldn't follow the rules on tax comes back not just 394 00:19:14,080 --> 00:19:16,000 to government but to be Prime Minister? 395 00:19:16,000 --> 00:19:18,560 Well, I get the sense from Angela Reagan's people that she 396 00:19:19,480 --> 00:19:22,760 doesn't particularly want to even talk about Labour 397 00:19:22,760 --> 00:19:25,080 leadership until she's got that tax issue sorted out. 398 00:19:25,320 --> 00:19:27,480 So there is a reason for delay here. 399 00:19:27,480 --> 00:19:30,760 At the very least, I get a sense from West treatment people that, 400 00:19:30,760 --> 00:19:33,440 you know, right now, sort of, you know, they don't 401 00:19:33,440 --> 00:19:36,800 particularly want to have Rez's links with Peter Manderson 402 00:19:37,280 --> 00:19:38,920 examined too closely. Well, he he's. 403 00:19:38,960 --> 00:19:40,760 Now said that he's going to publish everything. 404 00:19:41,080 --> 00:19:42,840 Hasn't he? But it does it does it does it 405 00:19:42,840 --> 00:19:46,520 does it does mean there's a reason for delay here. 406 00:19:47,000 --> 00:19:50,120 And I think people are sort of jumping over themselves in their 407 00:19:50,120 --> 00:19:52,960 excitement to see how soon they can get a leadership contest 408 00:19:52,960 --> 00:19:56,160 underway. I'm not sure it's actually in 409 00:19:56,160 --> 00:19:58,960 the interest even of the people who want to replace him to have 410 00:19:58,960 --> 00:20:00,800 an imminent 1. If there is a leadership 411 00:20:00,960 --> 00:20:06,280 contest, is it conceivable in the background and context of a 412 00:20:06,280 --> 00:20:09,360 scandal caused by politicians being forgiven and brought back 413 00:20:09,360 --> 00:20:13,480 the way Manderson was, that Angela Rayner can be forgiven 414 00:20:13,480 --> 00:20:16,640 for having broken the rules on tax and brought back as Prime 415 00:20:16,640 --> 00:20:19,640 Minister? I I like Angela Rayner a great 416 00:20:19,640 --> 00:20:22,000 deal. I happened to think that her 417 00:20:22,000 --> 00:20:23,480 resignation was a very harsh one. 418 00:20:23,880 --> 00:20:27,320 I think she was held to a much higher standard in terms of 419 00:20:27,440 --> 00:20:29,920 ethics. Peter Mandleson was when he was 420 00:20:29,920 --> 00:20:33,760 appointed as U.S. ambassador, so I think that she has a good 421 00:20:33,760 --> 00:20:37,560 reason to be resentful about being forced out of the cabinet 422 00:20:37,560 --> 00:20:39,320 in the first place. I'm not paying. 423 00:20:39,480 --> 00:20:42,760 Well, I, I, I, I, I think even the Ethics Commissioner thought 424 00:20:42,760 --> 00:20:46,480 that she was a bit unlucky, but she, she was held to a very, 425 00:20:46,480 --> 00:20:49,400 very high standard by, by, by the Prime Minister and by the 426 00:20:49,400 --> 00:20:51,840 ethics, by, by the government's ethics advisor. 427 00:20:53,400 --> 00:20:55,720 But when you ask me, do I think it's conceivable she can be 428 00:20:55,720 --> 00:20:58,640 promised in these circumstances? I think it does make it messier. 429 00:20:58,920 --> 00:21:00,800 And as someone who doesn't actually think Keir Starmer 430 00:21:00,800 --> 00:21:03,760 should be replaced, I think it does make it harder to find that 431 00:21:03,760 --> 00:21:07,560 replacement, yes. Holly, I think it's plausible. 432 00:21:07,560 --> 00:21:11,720 I think it's possible she's well liked it depends of course, what 433 00:21:11,720 --> 00:21:14,200 HMRC says. We haven't had the verdict yet 434 00:21:14,480 --> 00:21:18,120 and it may be that you know, it was a, a, a technical error of 435 00:21:18,120 --> 00:21:21,120 not great importance, in which case perfectly possible. 436 00:21:21,320 --> 00:21:23,800 But what we what we have to? Like the whole problem that 437 00:21:23,800 --> 00:21:27,160 we're in, we're in a political culture in which people say, oh, 438 00:21:27,160 --> 00:21:30,040 people get excused if they're in power. 439 00:21:30,240 --> 00:21:32,960 It wasn't that big a deal. If I hadn't paid 10s of 440 00:21:32,960 --> 00:21:36,160 thousands of pounds in tax, you know, I'd be in court, is what 441 00:21:36,160 --> 00:21:40,440 most people are thinking. And it might be bankrupt, but if 442 00:21:40,440 --> 00:21:43,720 it's Angela Rayner, not only can she come back, she can come back 443 00:21:43,720 --> 00:21:45,200 in the top job. We haven't had the verdict yet. 444 00:21:45,200 --> 00:21:46,440 Let's wait and see what's said we. 445 00:21:46,440 --> 00:21:47,920 Don't we know she didn't pay the right tax? 446 00:21:48,160 --> 00:21:50,760 Well, we don't know what HMRC, it's got to say about it. 447 00:21:50,760 --> 00:21:53,680 That's what we're waiting. But anyway, I suspect that there 448 00:21:53,680 --> 00:21:57,440 will be more candidates coming forward if we have a little 449 00:21:57,440 --> 00:22:00,760 while, if he doesn't stand down immediately, I think we might 450 00:22:00,760 --> 00:22:03,600 find quite a lot of people coming forward who maybe haven't 451 00:22:03,600 --> 00:22:07,080 been mentioned. And until we see a hustings of 452 00:22:07,080 --> 00:22:10,320 those people, their strengths and their weaknesses, I think it 453 00:22:10,320 --> 00:22:13,680 would be foolish for anyone to immediately call out who they 454 00:22:13,680 --> 00:22:15,480 think should be the next Prime Minister. 455 00:22:15,680 --> 00:22:18,640 Well, what about Wes Streeting? I mean, Tom says, you know, 456 00:22:18,640 --> 00:22:21,160 there are concerns about his links with Mandelson. 457 00:22:21,160 --> 00:22:25,720 Now he his people are saying there's very little contact. 458 00:22:25,720 --> 00:22:28,080 We're happy to publish it all. We'll see. 459 00:22:28,160 --> 00:22:30,960 Yes, he said today, anyone who wants to see all of my 460 00:22:30,960 --> 00:22:33,920 correspondence you can look at, which means that he's pretty 461 00:22:33,920 --> 00:22:36,600 sure that there's going to be nothing embarrassing there, 462 00:22:36,840 --> 00:22:40,680 which is, you know, a good thing to be that open. 463 00:22:41,240 --> 00:22:43,920 And I think he he has strong supporters. 464 00:22:43,920 --> 00:22:46,360 He's very clever, he's very politically agile. 465 00:22:46,720 --> 00:22:49,600 He's been a very good health secretary, but. 466 00:22:50,000 --> 00:22:51,600 But a lot of people don't like him in the Labour Party. 467 00:22:51,600 --> 00:22:54,240 People say, you know, he's much too Blair, right and on the 468 00:22:54,240 --> 00:22:56,840 right of the party. The question is whether he can 469 00:22:56,840 --> 00:22:59,080 escape that. I don't think he is sort of 470 00:22:59,080 --> 00:23:02,520 bogged down in Blairism, but we shall see. 471 00:23:02,680 --> 00:23:05,880 Luke, I mean, how much of the public know Angela Rayner? 472 00:23:05,880 --> 00:23:07,000 And we're streeting, for a start. 473 00:23:08,360 --> 00:23:10,280 Reasonably little. I mean, they know more about 474 00:23:10,720 --> 00:23:14,800 Angela Rayner because she was Deputy Prime Minister and before 475 00:23:14,800 --> 00:23:17,520 the scandal you would get a lot of people in focus groups who 476 00:23:17,520 --> 00:23:19,760 said I really like her. She seems different. 477 00:23:19,760 --> 00:23:23,360 She seems authentic. I think the challenges speaking 478 00:23:23,360 --> 00:23:27,240 to people since then is you get versions of, in fact, we got it 479 00:23:27,240 --> 00:23:30,360 from someone just the other week who said I used to really like 480 00:23:30,360 --> 00:23:33,400 her and then she got power and now she just looks like the rest 481 00:23:33,400 --> 00:23:35,960 of them. And I think she's going to have 482 00:23:35,960 --> 00:23:38,720 to do something to overcome that because there is that challenge 483 00:23:38,720 --> 00:23:40,160 of perception. Similar to what people have said 484 00:23:40,160 --> 00:23:43,800 about Mandelson in focus groups. Why was this guy even given 1/3 485 00:23:43,920 --> 00:23:46,240 third chance, regardless of the Epstein thing? 486 00:23:46,240 --> 00:23:48,880 He'd been, you know, booted out of cabinet twice. 487 00:23:48,880 --> 00:23:51,160 In this sense that politicians get endless go. 488 00:23:51,720 --> 00:23:55,240 I think he's really difficult. I mean, we also haven't heard 489 00:23:55,240 --> 00:23:57,280 from her. I mean, she hasn't done, you 490 00:23:57,280 --> 00:24:00,080 know, big TV interviewing like that since she had to resign. 491 00:24:00,400 --> 00:24:04,160 We don't really know what she thinks about most of politics at 492 00:24:04,160 --> 00:24:05,120 the moment. No. 493 00:24:05,120 --> 00:24:07,720 And I think if she were to come in, she would have to do 494 00:24:07,720 --> 00:24:11,200 something that, you know, both distanced herself from what came 495 00:24:11,680 --> 00:24:13,200 before. I think she probably would have 496 00:24:13,200 --> 00:24:16,360 to have that focus on some kind of watershed, on cleaning up 497 00:24:16,360 --> 00:24:19,800 politics, but also would have to, you know, there would need 498 00:24:19,800 --> 00:24:22,680 to be some kind of mea culpa for what she did as well. 499 00:24:22,680 --> 00:24:25,000 And I think that would be quite. And can you have a big change in 500 00:24:25,000 --> 00:24:30,040 direction from whoever may take over given the election was 501 00:24:30,040 --> 00:24:32,720 fought on the manifesto? You know, they, they will all 502 00:24:32,720 --> 00:24:34,360 want to come in and say we need a massive reset. 503 00:24:34,360 --> 00:24:36,360 I need to come in with a load of big new ideas. 504 00:24:36,880 --> 00:24:40,240 Is there any mandate for big new ideas that weren't in the 505 00:24:40,240 --> 00:24:41,200 election manifesto? Well, I. 506 00:24:41,320 --> 00:24:42,840 Think part of the thing was there weren't that many big 507 00:24:42,840 --> 00:24:45,800 ideas in the manifesto itself. And because it was a safety 508 00:24:45,800 --> 00:24:48,720 first manifesto, it was hard then to take the public on some 509 00:24:48,720 --> 00:24:51,400 of those difficult decisions. But the only thing I actually 510 00:24:51,400 --> 00:24:53,920 think what matters more with the public is having a sort of sense 511 00:24:53,920 --> 00:24:57,200 of coherent determination that you are going to do what it 512 00:24:57,200 --> 00:25:00,080 takes to improve their lives. You're going to be focused on 513 00:25:00,080 --> 00:25:01,920 them. You're going to move beyond at 514 00:25:01,920 --> 00:25:05,040 the psychodrama and I actually think, you know, you should be, 515 00:25:05,040 --> 00:25:07,160 you know, the the public will want to know that someone can 516 00:25:07,160 --> 00:25:08,880 deliver. I mean, you know, people are 517 00:25:08,880 --> 00:25:12,720 talking about outcomes and I mean people, most people have 518 00:25:12,720 --> 00:25:16,640 never heard of suddenly being projected into #10 Downing 519 00:25:16,640 --> 00:25:19,320 Street. Is that remotely tenable in the 520 00:25:19,360 --> 00:25:23,560 in the middle of a government's term to sort of put somebody in 521 00:25:23,560 --> 00:25:25,240 who isn't even a senior minister? 522 00:25:25,400 --> 00:25:27,160 No, I, I don't, I don't think it is. 523 00:25:27,160 --> 00:25:29,360 You know, people expect people to have a track record. 524 00:25:29,360 --> 00:25:32,080 They expect to know that they can do stuff. 525 00:25:32,080 --> 00:25:35,160 And I actually think it would be a risk for Al Khans or whoever 526 00:25:35,160 --> 00:25:37,560 and not having done a big ministerial job to suddenly go 527 00:25:37,560 --> 00:25:38,600 in. You're untested, you know. 528 00:25:38,760 --> 00:25:40,120 Probably. I mean, you're the one sort of 529 00:25:40,120 --> 00:25:43,560 raising this idea of sort of there will be other people who. 530 00:25:43,800 --> 00:25:46,880 Well, I think that one of the things that people will blame 531 00:25:47,520 --> 00:25:51,720 Keir Starmer for for a long time is the fix by which he kept Andy 532 00:25:51,720 --> 00:25:54,960 Burnham out of this. It may be that if this takes a 533 00:25:54,960 --> 00:25:58,000 little bit longer, there will be time perhaps for Andy Burnham to 534 00:25:58,000 --> 00:26:00,160 have another chance at another by election. 535 00:26:00,600 --> 00:26:02,520 But it was a pretty savage thing to do. 536 00:26:02,760 --> 00:26:04,960 It was kind of dirty Westminster politics. 537 00:26:05,280 --> 00:26:09,840 And so for Keir Starmer to be totally Mr. Clean after that 538 00:26:10,080 --> 00:26:11,120 doesn't look so good. I. 539 00:26:12,520 --> 00:26:16,080 Mean I'll take issue with that. I mean, I like Andy Burnham, but 540 00:26:16,280 --> 00:26:19,600 the world is dog knew Andy Burnham was coming back to 541 00:26:19,600 --> 00:26:22,120 Parliament in order to challenge Keir Starmer for the leadership. 542 00:26:22,720 --> 00:26:26,120 I don't think any leader of any major political party in the 543 00:26:26,120 --> 00:26:28,440 world would say, come on in, we'll give you special 544 00:26:28,440 --> 00:26:29,600 permission. No, that'd be great. 545 00:26:29,840 --> 00:26:31,440 That's just that's just it's nuts. 546 00:26:31,440 --> 00:26:34,360 I couldn't I really understand why it was seen as so 547 00:26:34,360 --> 00:26:37,200 controversial at the time. My worry, and I think Keir's 548 00:26:37,200 --> 00:26:41,920 worry about this is that the the party that deserves to win the 549 00:26:41,920 --> 00:26:45,480 next general election is the party which is not staring at 550 00:26:45,480 --> 00:26:48,960 its navel, which is not invaded, engaged in factional battles 551 00:26:48,960 --> 00:26:51,440 between Angela Raine is left and where's Treaty is right or you 552 00:26:51,440 --> 00:26:54,640 know, or this or that. It's the party that's focused on 553 00:26:54,680 --> 00:26:57,920 the needs of the British people at this incredibly fragile, 554 00:26:58,040 --> 00:27:03,320 dangerous time for the world. And I really, I'm concerned now 555 00:27:04,160 --> 00:27:05,720 that, yeah, it was rubbing hands weekly. 556 00:27:05,720 --> 00:27:06,760 Great. We're gonna get a leadership 557 00:27:06,760 --> 00:27:08,160 election. Yeah, we just talk about Labour 558 00:27:08,160 --> 00:27:11,920 Party, this faction or that faction and the public will turn 559 00:27:12,040 --> 00:27:13,600 away. Haven't already? 560 00:27:13,840 --> 00:27:14,880 And. Isn't that the problem? 561 00:27:15,080 --> 00:27:18,360 But Keir Starmer has taken Labour to 16 to 20% in the 562 00:27:18,360 --> 00:27:20,760 polls. The public have already turned 563 00:27:20,760 --> 00:27:23,360 away from his his his brand. Look, the third away for a 564 00:27:23,360 --> 00:27:26,760 Parliament with a big majority thing to be doing now is 565 00:27:26,760 --> 00:27:30,000 focusing on governing to actually bring about some of the 566 00:27:30,000 --> 00:27:34,080 changes that you can in very difficult circumstances. 567 00:27:34,080 --> 00:27:37,520 That level of unpopularity. Any sort of change, getting any 568 00:27:37,520 --> 00:27:41,080 sort of focus on the British people rather than politicians 569 00:27:41,200 --> 00:27:44,640 will become progressively harder if we engage in a factional 570 00:27:44,640 --> 00:27:47,120 battle over the succession. And that's the prospect. 571 00:27:47,120 --> 00:27:49,800 Now look. I think the problem is that that 572 00:27:49,800 --> 00:27:52,080 for a lot of the public, certainly, you know, I was in 573 00:27:52,080 --> 00:27:55,360 Greater Manchester last week doing focus groups. 574 00:27:55,640 --> 00:27:58,120 And they were. Furious about Andy Burnham being 575 00:27:58,120 --> 00:28:00,400 blocked someone who had delivered for them and it looked 576 00:28:00,400 --> 00:28:03,640 like the politics of self-interest that someone who 577 00:28:03,640 --> 00:28:06,320 had done so much for Greater Manchester. 578 00:28:06,440 --> 00:28:08,760 Well, but I mean Tommy, you slightly said it is he was going 579 00:28:08,760 --> 00:28:10,760 to come and do and lots of the public would if. 580 00:28:10,760 --> 00:28:12,880 Starmer doesn't want to talk about at least she wants to talk 581 00:28:12,880 --> 00:28:14,520 about governing for the country. What if Keir? 582 00:28:14,520 --> 00:28:17,840 Starmer had said Run Andy and I recognise you're a strong player 583 00:28:17,840 --> 00:28:19,160 who's delivered for Greater Manchester. 584 00:28:19,200 --> 00:28:22,680 Let me he bring you into the tent, give him a cabinet job 585 00:28:22,680 --> 00:28:25,240 that would have been seen by the public as strength that would 586 00:28:25,240 --> 00:28:28,040 have helped. I mean, it's not for, you know, 587 00:28:28,040 --> 00:28:30,080 me to start dictating reshuffles, but you know, 588 00:28:30,080 --> 00:28:31,680 reshuffles happen fairly regularly. 589 00:28:31,680 --> 00:28:33,240 There would have been he could have brought him in. 590 00:28:33,240 --> 00:28:36,440 He could have looked stronger. And the problem when we did 591 00:28:36,440 --> 00:28:38,480 those focus groups in Greater Manchester, you've got you could 592 00:28:38,480 --> 00:28:41,160 see people making the contrast. This guy, Peter Mandelson, he 593 00:28:41,160 --> 00:28:43,440 gets all these chances. Andy Burnham, who's improved our 594 00:28:43,440 --> 00:28:45,800 transport, who's got construction going up across 595 00:28:45,800 --> 00:28:48,200 Manchester, he's blocked. That don't make sense. 596 00:28:50,720 --> 00:28:54,840 The idea that it's good for the Labour government to introduce 597 00:28:54,840 --> 00:28:58,520 someone into Parliament who sole purpose of giving up what he 598 00:28:58,520 --> 00:28:59,480 said was the best job in the world. 599 00:28:59,480 --> 00:29:00,840 He wasn't interested to go to Parliament. 600 00:29:00,840 --> 00:29:02,400 He wanted to go back to Parliament and challenge Keir 601 00:29:02,400 --> 00:29:04,000 Stan for Labellation. I don't don't resent him for 602 00:29:04,000 --> 00:29:05,520 that. You know, that's the job he 603 00:29:05,520 --> 00:29:06,960 wants to do. But I don't think it's Keir 604 00:29:06,960 --> 00:29:09,760 Starmer's job to say come on in, let's have six months 605 00:29:09,760 --> 00:29:11,640 leadership. Speculation that that would be 606 00:29:11,640 --> 00:29:14,160 nuts for any Prime Minister anytime. 607 00:29:15,080 --> 00:29:17,640 It's happening now partly because of that decision he 608 00:29:17,640 --> 00:29:19,520 made. An awful lot of people at that 609 00:29:19,520 --> 00:29:21,840 point switched against. People are looking for these 610 00:29:21,840 --> 00:29:24,240 triggers and I think you to some extent, you know, looking for a 611 00:29:24,240 --> 00:29:26,400 bit of a trigger because you think, you know, you think he's 612 00:29:26,400 --> 00:29:29,120 not going anywhere. But the people are looking for 613 00:29:29,120 --> 00:29:30,760 an immediate reason to say that's it. 614 00:29:30,760 --> 00:29:32,960 I've had enough that, you know, you know, straw in a camel's 615 00:29:32,960 --> 00:29:35,600 back. I do think the individual 616 00:29:35,600 --> 00:29:39,640 examples of these triggers bear don't really bear too much 617 00:29:39,640 --> 00:29:41,480 examination. So are you, are you saying that 618 00:29:41,480 --> 00:29:45,240 if he stays he he doesn't need to do a big research, he should 619 00:29:45,240 --> 00:29:48,040 just carry on as he was because he was on the right line? 620 00:29:48,040 --> 00:29:53,840 I think the whole philosophy of resets is, is sort of part of 621 00:29:53,840 --> 00:29:58,360 the problem of these sort of the sort of cycle of drama and chaos 622 00:29:58,360 --> 00:30:02,680 and crisis that the best thing that Keir Starmer could have 623 00:30:02,680 --> 00:30:06,880 been could be is the person who's actually more concerned 624 00:30:06,880 --> 00:30:08,400 what happens out in the country than the Westminster. 625 00:30:08,400 --> 00:30:11,440 His distaste for politics should have defined him. 626 00:30:12,000 --> 00:30:15,120 In fact, it at a moment he's being defined by the sort of 627 00:30:15,120 --> 00:30:16,720 politics he's subcontracted out to other people. 628 00:30:16,720 --> 00:30:18,760 That's on him. That's a mistake he's made. 629 00:30:18,760 --> 00:30:20,680 But are you saying the government was basically on the 630 00:30:20,680 --> 00:30:23,280 right lines in order to win the next election? 631 00:30:23,400 --> 00:30:25,040 I'm saying you. Know there's somehow it would 632 00:30:25,040 --> 00:30:27,680 come good in three years time. No, no, what I'm, what I'm 633 00:30:27,680 --> 00:30:31,640 saying is that the right way to win the next election is to stop 634 00:30:31,640 --> 00:30:34,200 focusing on your internal anonymous briefing which 635 00:30:34,200 --> 00:30:35,400 characterises government too much. 636 00:30:35,400 --> 00:30:37,040 I'm talking about this. I'm talking about what they're 637 00:30:37,040 --> 00:30:38,440 doing. Well, not all of that. 638 00:30:38,600 --> 00:30:42,200 You, you, you keep talking about that policy says policy says 639 00:30:42,200 --> 00:30:44,560 there's lots of good policy. I think they haven't connected 640 00:30:44,560 --> 00:30:46,080 into story. I think the long term investment 641 00:30:46,080 --> 00:30:48,040 for the future is a very Labour story, stuff they're doing 642 00:30:48,040 --> 00:30:49,600 opportunities, a very Labour story. 643 00:30:49,840 --> 00:30:53,440 I think they have to open out to that Labour electorate rather 644 00:30:53,440 --> 00:30:56,800 than sort of constantly looking over the wall to, to reform 645 00:30:56,800 --> 00:30:59,120 voters they can't reach. I think they've made lots of 646 00:30:59,120 --> 00:31:01,320 strategic errors. I think they've made some 647 00:31:01,320 --> 00:31:05,000 governmental errors. Do I think that the difference 648 00:31:05,000 --> 00:31:08,800 between the Labor government and the alternative is stark and 649 00:31:08,880 --> 00:31:09,880 obvious? Yes. 650 00:31:10,160 --> 00:31:13,280 Does the government succeed if it's facing the British? 651 00:31:13,280 --> 00:31:16,400 People Talk about what matters to the most, yes. 652 00:31:16,800 --> 00:31:20,080 Does the government fail if it turns in on itself, talks about 653 00:31:20,080 --> 00:31:23,440 the Labour Party, does factional stuff and you know, it's just 654 00:31:23,440 --> 00:31:26,000 turning away from a bunch of. People, Tom, let's ask Luke, has 655 00:31:26,080 --> 00:31:31,640 any leader ever come back from such a negative rating as Kia 656 00:31:31,640 --> 00:31:34,040 has now? I mean, a lot of people who like 657 00:31:34,040 --> 00:31:38,920 Kia just say there's no way out. Well, no, but what I would what 658 00:31:38,920 --> 00:31:41,720 I would also say is we know we're in quite a volatile period 659 00:31:41,720 --> 00:31:42,760 at the electorate change of mind. 660 00:31:42,760 --> 00:31:46,480 I find it difficult to see how he recovers. 661 00:31:46,480 --> 00:31:49,000 And I think my worry from the public's perspective is to go 662 00:31:49,000 --> 00:31:50,920 back to what Tom said. That speech he gave last 663 00:31:50,920 --> 00:31:53,600 Thursday was a really important speech, you know, and actually 664 00:31:53,600 --> 00:31:56,640 one that the public care about pride in place, tackling 665 00:31:56,640 --> 00:32:00,600 extremism. The problem is, is he no longer 666 00:32:00,880 --> 00:32:03,320 going to be a Prime Minister who's listened to who can get 667 00:32:03,320 --> 00:32:07,560 those important messages across. And if that moment if the door 668 00:32:07,640 --> 00:32:11,320 or has shot there than it would I think from a confidence in the 669 00:32:11,320 --> 00:32:15,600 system tie a piece be time for him to move on. 670 00:32:16,000 --> 00:32:18,760 But I I don't think we know that equivocally, but the window is 671 00:32:18,760 --> 00:32:21,520 closing. Look, I'm not pretending that 672 00:32:21,520 --> 00:32:23,360 this government is not in huge difficult and as this Prime 673 00:32:23,360 --> 00:32:26,600 Minister is not in huge difficulty, I just say lightly 674 00:32:26,600 --> 00:32:28,920 that you're right that this is a volatile time. 675 00:32:29,240 --> 00:32:32,280 In next week we could have some major International Crisis. 676 00:32:33,440 --> 00:32:36,720 At which point do people want to the Labour Party to be leadless, 677 00:32:36,960 --> 00:32:39,920 this Prime Minister to be gone? I think it's that you know this, 678 00:32:40,440 --> 00:32:45,200 you know, I do not understand this sort of addiction. 679 00:32:45,200 --> 00:32:49,480 We've got turmoil and crisis and chaos, which is self fulfilling. 680 00:32:50,440 --> 00:32:52,800 What I'm trying to get at is, I mean, yes, fine, you're in the 681 00:32:52,800 --> 00:32:54,600 middle of a leadership crisis and now it's all about 682 00:32:54,600 --> 00:32:56,080 personality and all the rest of it. 683 00:32:56,080 --> 00:32:59,320 But the crisis was here before in terms of Labour unpopularity. 684 00:32:59,600 --> 00:33:01,920 You know, Luke, Luke's, Luke's evidence. 685 00:33:02,560 --> 00:33:04,880 We have a Prime Minister. You can go. 686 00:33:04,880 --> 00:33:07,080 Round and bring together a coalition are willing to defend 687 00:33:07,080 --> 00:33:08,880 liberal democracy at a. And none of that. 688 00:33:08,880 --> 00:33:11,440 Existential genuine crisis for liberal democracy. 689 00:33:11,440 --> 00:33:13,480 And Despite that, they're on course to massively lose the 690 00:33:13,480 --> 00:33:16,920 next election reform. So the question is Britt Starmer 691 00:33:16,920 --> 00:33:18,920 or somebody else, do things need to change? 692 00:33:19,560 --> 00:33:23,200 Now, Polly, I, you know, I presume any other leadership 693 00:33:23,200 --> 00:33:25,920 candidates are going to come in and say we need massive change 694 00:33:25,920 --> 00:33:28,920 because that wasn't working. I think they'll have to. 695 00:33:28,920 --> 00:33:31,480 I don't think anybody's going to be able to say steady as she 696 00:33:31,480 --> 00:33:33,440 goes. The question is how much they 697 00:33:33,440 --> 00:33:36,960 can break away from the straitjacket of that manifesto. 698 00:33:37,840 --> 00:33:39,560 You know, a lot of people will be saying you must have a 699 00:33:39,560 --> 00:33:41,280 general election. Well, we didn't have a general 700 00:33:41,280 --> 00:33:44,240 election for Prime Minister after Prime Minister after Prime 701 00:33:44,240 --> 00:33:46,360 Minister under the Tories. So I don't think that's the 702 00:33:46,360 --> 00:33:48,320 answer. But I do think people have to 703 00:33:48,320 --> 00:33:52,440 come up with a a very strong idea of how to clean up politics 704 00:33:52,440 --> 00:33:56,000 first, but also, you know, how to get growth going, which is 705 00:33:56,000 --> 00:33:58,360 very difficult. All of Europe struggling to get 706 00:33:58,360 --> 00:34:01,080 growth going. I mean, all, all the cabinet who 707 00:34:01,080 --> 00:34:03,400 aren't declaring support for Starman now are also saying 708 00:34:03,400 --> 00:34:05,720 there needs to be change. I just saw, you know, I think it 709 00:34:05,720 --> 00:34:09,560 was Bridget Phillipson on the TV saying we need to keep clear but 710 00:34:09,560 --> 00:34:11,600 we need to be better. We need, you know, think we need 711 00:34:11,600 --> 00:34:15,320 change. So it is clear that the 712 00:34:15,320 --> 00:34:19,719 government, as it was set aside all the scandals, just wasn't 713 00:34:19,719 --> 00:34:22,000 working, was it? I, I, I think the government 714 00:34:22,000 --> 00:34:25,840 were pitching things in the wrong way and I, I, I generally 715 00:34:25,840 --> 00:34:28,400 think that what Polly says about, you know, building a 716 00:34:28,400 --> 00:34:31,840 coalition against the really terrifying threat, the new 717 00:34:31,840 --> 00:34:35,080 threat pros by Farrah's like which we've not seen before is 718 00:34:35,080 --> 00:34:37,400 really important. I don't think they've ever done 719 00:34:37,400 --> 00:34:39,880 that properly in terms of their language, in terms of the way 720 00:34:39,880 --> 00:34:43,920 they present policies and in terms of their own discipline. 721 00:34:44,719 --> 00:34:50,679 That is not the same as saying you need some sort of intangible 722 00:34:50,880 --> 00:34:54,719 change in, in the, the actual substance of the policy they're 723 00:34:54,719 --> 00:34:57,840 doing. I do think a lot of this is the 724 00:34:57,840 --> 00:35:00,440 kind of the sort of voters they've been aiming at. 725 00:35:00,880 --> 00:35:03,280 I think there's a lot to be said for this block theory of 726 00:35:03,280 --> 00:35:07,000 politics now that the, you know, 2019 the right got the block out 727 00:35:07,000 --> 00:35:09,280 and won the election. 2024 the left got the block out and won 728 00:35:09,280 --> 00:35:12,840 the election. And we spent too long kind of 729 00:35:14,000 --> 00:35:16,040 appearing over the wall at the right wing bloc and not enough 730 00:35:16,040 --> 00:35:19,000 paying, not paying nearly enough attention to to left to centre 731 00:35:19,000 --> 00:35:20,800 voters. And I think they need to be 732 00:35:20,880 --> 00:35:23,200 reunited with a story which they can understand. 733 00:35:24,400 --> 00:35:28,600 That's a question of reaching out to them rather than turning 734 00:35:28,720 --> 00:35:32,840 inwards to ourselves. So if Keir Starmer goes, I think 735 00:35:32,840 --> 00:35:35,280 it's really important that this does not become a factional 736 00:35:35,280 --> 00:35:38,920 leadership election. And it's, you know, it's a 737 00:35:38,920 --> 00:35:42,840 process which is done with an eye to the public rather than to 738 00:35:42,840 --> 00:35:46,240 the party. I very much fear it will not be. 739 00:35:46,520 --> 00:35:48,840 Yeah, I mean it, It is impossible for him not to be a 740 00:35:48,840 --> 00:35:52,000 factional leadership election, isn't it, when you got a 741 00:35:52,000 --> 00:35:54,040 candidate from the soft left and the candidate from the centre 742 00:35:54,040 --> 00:35:56,200 right? But the the the the I think 1 of 743 00:35:56,200 --> 00:35:58,200 Keir Starmer's achievements when he first became leader was to 744 00:35:58,200 --> 00:36:02,480 turn the party inside out, away from itself towards the public. 745 00:36:03,160 --> 00:36:06,720 I think the danger of him departing now would be the party 746 00:36:06,720 --> 00:36:09,080 turns back in on itself. You said something very 747 00:36:09,080 --> 00:36:12,640 important about the importance of the bloc, a right block and a 748 00:36:12,640 --> 00:36:15,320 left block. Within that left block it is 749 00:36:15,320 --> 00:36:18,360 essential that everybody within that is willing to vote 750 00:36:18,360 --> 00:36:21,680 tactically to make sure that they keep the right out. 751 00:36:21,920 --> 00:36:25,480 There is a danger that with Keir Starmer as hated, I don't think 752 00:36:25,480 --> 00:36:28,880 it's fair, but as hated as he is, that the Lib Dems and the 753 00:36:28,880 --> 00:36:32,120 Greens might not throw their vote to Labour when they need to 754 00:36:32,120 --> 00:36:35,240 in the seats where they need to, and that would be a disaster. 755 00:36:35,600 --> 00:36:39,480 So there needs to be a leader who is at least more or less 756 00:36:39,480 --> 00:36:42,080 acceptable for tactical voters from those two. 757 00:36:42,240 --> 00:36:44,520 Are you saying a Labour leader should reach out to those other 758 00:36:44,520 --> 00:36:47,680 parties and maybe bring them into the tent before the next 759 00:36:47,680 --> 00:36:48,880 election? I don't know about bringing them 760 00:36:48,880 --> 00:36:52,320 into the tent, but at least have somebody acceptable enough that 761 00:36:52,320 --> 00:36:54,600 they are willing to vote tactically as they did at the 762 00:36:54,600 --> 00:36:57,280 last election. And at the moment, it looks as 763 00:36:57,280 --> 00:36:59,760 if a lot of them are saying, sorry, couldn't vote for Keir 764 00:36:59,760 --> 00:37:02,480 Starmer, there's Gaza, There are a whole lot of things for some 765 00:37:02,480 --> 00:37:05,760 reason, and we have to get over that to a point where they are 766 00:37:05,760 --> 00:37:07,280 at least acceptable to each other. 767 00:37:07,280 --> 00:37:09,640 Are we already at that point where you're looking at a 768 00:37:09,640 --> 00:37:14,840 coalition of the centre and the left trying to take on reform? 769 00:37:15,440 --> 00:37:18,920 Yeah, look, I think one of the best chances that Labour will 770 00:37:18,920 --> 00:37:22,120 have at the next lecture, which is a long time whistle lots may 771 00:37:22,120 --> 00:37:24,680 change in between. But even looking forward to 772 00:37:24,800 --> 00:37:28,800 May's elections is a sort of Macron strategy which is you 773 00:37:28,800 --> 00:37:32,440 have to vote for us to stop reforms and that's Macron trying 774 00:37:32,440 --> 00:37:36,680 to stop National Rally. The difficulty comes and This is 775 00:37:36,680 --> 00:37:39,000 why I think Gorton is more dangerous. 776 00:37:39,000 --> 00:37:41,720 The by election in Gorton and Denton is more dangerous than 777 00:37:41,720 --> 00:37:44,440 people think for Labour's longer term prospects. 778 00:37:44,720 --> 00:37:48,040 If Labour no longer look like the vehicle that can stop 779 00:37:48,480 --> 00:37:51,520 reforms, if the Greens win that by election, it becomes much 780 00:37:51,520 --> 00:37:56,560 harder to say to the left bloc you must vote for us in order to 781 00:37:56,560 --> 00:38:01,120 keep out Reform UK and I think that could be a real challenge 782 00:38:01,120 --> 00:38:03,840 for them. That said, I do think you can 783 00:38:03,840 --> 00:38:07,080 slightly overplay the Bloc stuff that actually, if you look at 784 00:38:07,080 --> 00:38:11,040 most voters, they broadly do want life to be more affordable, 785 00:38:11,040 --> 00:38:15,160 public services to work, a greater degree of control over 786 00:38:15,960 --> 00:38:18,040 immigration. And I come back to again, when 787 00:38:18,040 --> 00:38:20,520 we're in Manchester, there was one woman and she's sort of 788 00:38:20,520 --> 00:38:22,840 summed up what I think the central paradigm of electoral 789 00:38:22,840 --> 00:38:26,280 politics is at the moment. She says, Luke, I'm really 790 00:38:26,280 --> 00:38:30,280 scared at the next election, I'm going to have to vote reform. 791 00:38:31,040 --> 00:38:33,960 And I just thought it was such a sort of telling sort of. 792 00:38:33,960 --> 00:38:35,880 And she went on to explain, you know, I've seen what's happened 793 00:38:35,880 --> 00:38:37,960 in the US with ICE. I worry he'd be like Trump. 794 00:38:38,160 --> 00:38:39,800 But I'm just so worried we need to. 795 00:38:39,960 --> 00:38:42,200 I also think we need something different that I'm worried I'm 796 00:38:42,200 --> 00:38:43,360 going to put. My cross there. 797 00:38:44,440 --> 00:38:47,160 Can you explain why? You know, if we're in a world in 798 00:38:47,160 --> 00:38:53,960 which untrustworthy elites doing dodgy things, mysterious sources 799 00:38:53,960 --> 00:38:57,880 of funding for politics is what's driving this 800 00:38:58,160 --> 00:39:01,720 dissatisfaction amongst the public, Why? 801 00:39:01,720 --> 00:39:06,480 Why a reform not caught by that? Why do people not say that's 802 00:39:06,480 --> 00:39:08,280 what they do? Well, A, because people think 803 00:39:08,600 --> 00:39:12,000 they're all at it and they're all tainted by the same brush. 804 00:39:12,000 --> 00:39:15,480 And secondly, it's, you know, any doubts people have at the 805 00:39:15,480 --> 00:39:18,800 moment, well, for 30% of the electorate is being overpowered 806 00:39:18,800 --> 00:39:21,080 by a sense we just can't go on like this. 807 00:39:21,080 --> 00:39:22,800 So there are lots of people, particularly in the voters 808 00:39:22,800 --> 00:39:26,040 reform of one since the election or one ever since then, who are 809 00:39:26,040 --> 00:39:28,920 like that woman who think I just got to roll the dice on 810 00:39:28,920 --> 00:39:30,760 something new because we can't go on like this. 811 00:39:30,760 --> 00:39:31,720 And that's what Labour has to do. 812 00:39:31,720 --> 00:39:34,600 Labour has to does have to reassure people like that that 813 00:39:34,600 --> 00:39:38,160 government can deliver. One of the many incoherences 814 00:39:38,160 --> 00:39:40,360 we've had into the political strategy from Labour Party 815 00:39:40,360 --> 00:39:42,880 recently is they don't even know how to attack reform. 816 00:39:43,240 --> 00:39:46,240 So, you know, Keir Starmer made a big speech last year's party 817 00:39:46,240 --> 00:39:48,920 conference saying that they're a threat like we've never seen 818 00:39:48,920 --> 00:39:50,360 before. It's a different battle. 819 00:39:51,440 --> 00:39:54,320 Within a couple of days the Labour Party were putting out 820 00:39:54,320 --> 00:39:57,040 tweets from Labour Party's headquarters saying same old 821 00:39:57,040 --> 00:40:00,400 Tories now. You literally cannot be a new 822 00:40:00,400 --> 00:40:03,280 threat like we've never faced before and the same old Tories 823 00:40:03,600 --> 00:40:05,840 now. That incoherence I think is part 824 00:40:05,840 --> 00:40:07,920 of the kids problem in that, you know, that was a speech which 825 00:40:07,920 --> 00:40:10,760 was very personal to him and yet. 826 00:40:11,320 --> 00:40:13,160 There are people who sort of seem to think when the Prime 827 00:40:13,160 --> 00:40:16,840 Minister sends a big signal that that it can be ignored or it's 828 00:40:16,840 --> 00:40:18,480 merely the starting point for a bigger discussion. 829 00:40:18,640 --> 00:40:20,840 That is that's, you know, it's been quite hard for him actually 830 00:40:20,840 --> 00:40:24,040 to drive through his own values and his own personality into 831 00:40:24,040 --> 00:40:25,720 this government. Some of that's on him. 832 00:40:26,040 --> 00:40:27,880 Some of it's actually on the people around him. 833 00:40:28,240 --> 00:40:30,960 Also, Polly isn't isn't it that, you know, he has a habit of 834 00:40:30,960 --> 00:40:33,440 saying things and then it just disappears. 835 00:40:33,800 --> 00:40:37,040 That's the nothing happens. That exactly the trouble and and 836 00:40:37,040 --> 00:40:40,360 that's a very good example, this contradictory attitude towards 837 00:40:40,360 --> 00:40:44,760 reform and often when he says things and for instance on ID 838 00:40:44,760 --> 00:40:49,080 cards, that was a very popular policy until he put it forward 839 00:40:49,240 --> 00:40:51,480 and the moment he put it forward, it became an unpopular. 840 00:40:51,480 --> 00:40:52,640 Policy, the way you put it forward. 841 00:40:52,640 --> 00:40:55,720 Which is quite which, sorry. It's the way he put it forward. 842 00:40:55,840 --> 00:40:58,000 But it's the way he put it forward. 843 00:40:58,160 --> 00:40:59,480 But it should have driven everything. 844 00:40:59,480 --> 00:41:02,560 It should have been talking about about benefits, about 845 00:41:02,600 --> 00:41:04,240 immigration. It should also have been talking 846 00:41:04,240 --> 00:41:06,520 about entitlement. This will these are the things 847 00:41:06,520 --> 00:41:09,240 it will give you. And if, for instance, we wanted 848 00:41:09,240 --> 00:41:13,600 to make foreigners pay for our museums and galleries, this card 849 00:41:13,600 --> 00:41:16,520 will show your British and you can go in everywhere free. 850 00:41:16,840 --> 00:41:19,360 I mean, there are all kinds of positive ways it could be done 851 00:41:19,760 --> 00:41:23,080 and he just never seems to have that consistent follow through 852 00:41:23,280 --> 00:41:26,480 or to be able to say to his cabinet, I want each of you to 853 00:41:26,480 --> 00:41:29,800 find a good reason why ID cards are a good thing for. 854 00:41:29,840 --> 00:41:34,080 Instance OK, so so I just want to end with sort of the lessons 855 00:41:34,440 --> 00:41:38,720 for whichever government is going to be running the country 856 00:41:38,720 --> 00:41:41,080 next week. And I I accept that you wanted 857 00:41:41,080 --> 00:41:42,560 to be Keir Starmer. But you know what? 858 00:41:42,560 --> 00:41:46,200 What does this period, I accept, Tom, that you wanted to be Keir 859 00:41:46,200 --> 00:41:48,920 Starmer? What does this period tell you? 860 00:41:49,400 --> 00:41:53,960 Two or three things that we must learn in terms of making 861 00:41:53,960 --> 00:41:56,960 government work and connecting with the people. 862 00:41:58,080 --> 00:42:04,680 I think staring at your own navel is not a great day way of 863 00:42:05,040 --> 00:42:10,160 of of reaching the public at Westminster. 864 00:42:10,160 --> 00:42:16,240 Politics which is in shrill to an idea of perma crisis, perma 865 00:42:16,240 --> 00:42:21,080 chaos is a politics beginning to eat itself and making this 866 00:42:21,080 --> 00:42:23,360 country increasingly difficult to govern. 867 00:42:24,720 --> 00:42:29,320 And I just sort of think from the international perspective 868 00:42:29,320 --> 00:42:32,440 here, yeah, you've got a government, a Labour government 869 00:42:32,440 --> 00:42:36,440 elected with a big stable majority acting like the 870 00:42:36,440 --> 00:42:39,200 Conservatives did when they were falling apart. 871 00:42:39,560 --> 00:42:41,920 And it's happened after within 18 months. 872 00:42:42,520 --> 00:42:45,800 And this is a world which really is in crisis. 873 00:42:45,800 --> 00:42:48,560 The challenges facing us on climate, technology, Russia, 874 00:42:48,600 --> 00:42:55,960 China, Trump are so enormous that here we have a Prime 875 00:42:55,960 --> 00:42:59,200 Minister who's not even mentioned in the Epstein files. 876 00:42:59,800 --> 00:43:02,000 There's lots of rich, powerful Americans who I haven't been 877 00:43:02,000 --> 00:43:04,360 brought down, we have promised, not even mentioned there. 878 00:43:04,360 --> 00:43:07,720 Nigel Farage mentioned 40 times who somehow is going to be cast 879 00:43:07,720 --> 00:43:13,120 out because of his secondary relationship with Across. 880 00:43:13,120 --> 00:43:15,800 That happened last night. We go, I think it's nuts, I 881 00:43:15,800 --> 00:43:20,400 think our politics looks nuts. And the big lesson here is if we 882 00:43:20,520 --> 00:43:25,080 want to have democracy to kick around, we have to start 883 00:43:25,120 --> 00:43:28,720 thinking and treating it a little bit more tenderness 884 00:43:28,960 --> 00:43:32,280 because it's fragile right now. Luke, what do you think they 885 00:43:32,280 --> 00:43:35,280 need to understand if they're going to get out of this mess? 886 00:43:36,240 --> 00:43:39,400 I think the biggest thing is to show that government is in 887 00:43:39,400 --> 00:43:42,520 control of events, that, you know, there's a reason to take 888 00:43:42,520 --> 00:43:45,640 back control was such a successful election slogan 889 00:43:45,640 --> 00:43:47,560 because it goes to the heart of what people want. 890 00:43:47,560 --> 00:43:50,280 And I think too much of the early part of this government 891 00:43:50,400 --> 00:43:55,320 has made it seem powerless to events or without a narrative of 892 00:43:55,320 --> 00:43:57,480 control and what they want to achieve. 893 00:43:57,480 --> 00:44:00,040 I mean, I go back to that. I think it was such a silly 894 00:44:00,040 --> 00:44:02,160 comment that the Prime Minister made before the Liaison 895 00:44:02,160 --> 00:44:04,120 Committee when he talked about pulling levers and nothing 896 00:44:04,120 --> 00:44:06,840 happening because all that does that sort of things it 897 00:44:06,840 --> 00:44:09,960 reinforces to the public, oh, maybe we do need someone totally 898 00:44:09,960 --> 00:44:11,520 different who can make the system work. 899 00:44:11,680 --> 00:44:13,280 So I think it's a about showing control. 900 00:44:13,520 --> 00:44:18,400 And then BI think it's one of the clips that I played before 901 00:44:18,400 --> 00:44:21,160 the election to a focus group of Keir Starmer people like the 902 00:44:21,160 --> 00:44:24,400 most was him talking about the politics that treads more likely 903 00:44:24,920 --> 00:44:27,200 on people's lives. You know that that people that 904 00:44:27,200 --> 00:44:30,760 that is exactly what we want and they have to find a way to get 905 00:44:30,760 --> 00:44:32,280 back to that. So showing government is in 906 00:44:32,280 --> 00:44:35,120 control and could do stuff and then getting back to politics is 907 00:44:35,120 --> 00:44:38,960 something that people don't have to stay glued to the TV folder. 908 00:44:38,960 --> 00:44:41,680 They should obviously all be listening to the forecast. 909 00:44:41,920 --> 00:44:44,280 Polly, what? What does whoever is running the 910 00:44:44,280 --> 00:44:47,080 government in the future need to understand about what's gone 911 00:44:47,080 --> 00:44:50,400 wrong? It's a huge opportunity for 912 00:44:50,400 --> 00:44:52,880 somebody with a political imagination, with somebody with 913 00:44:52,880 --> 00:44:56,000 bravery, with somebody who's not going to spend their whole time 914 00:44:56,000 --> 00:44:59,000 listening to focus groups and just decides what they want to 915 00:44:59,000 --> 00:45:01,680 do. They've got three years with an 916 00:45:01,680 --> 00:45:05,000 unchallengeable authority of a huge majority. 917 00:45:05,440 --> 00:45:08,800 They can just say in those three years I'm going to get done the 918 00:45:08,800 --> 00:45:11,920 things I most think the country needs and wants. 919 00:45:12,360 --> 00:45:16,080 I'm, you know, I'm not going to be blown one way and the other 920 00:45:16,080 --> 00:45:19,160 by endless criticism. And if you had somebody with 921 00:45:19,160 --> 00:45:24,160 that sort of nerve and that sort of hope, I think Labour could 922 00:45:24,160 --> 00:45:26,280 get back on its feet and do very well. 923 00:45:26,480 --> 00:45:29,720 But it's a big ask. Probably Tom and be Luke Trill. 924 00:45:29,880 --> 00:45:31,400 Tom Baldwin, thank you all very much indeed. 925 00:45:31,680 --> 00:45:33,120 And that's the forecast for today. 926 00:45:33,280 --> 00:45:34,560 Who knows where we'll be tomorrow. 927 00:45:34,560 --> 00:45:35,440 We'll see you then. Bye bye.