You speak to Labour MPs and you're left with the impression
of Crikey. Kier has not got long left in
him. However, you need someone to
wield a knife. It's remarkable now when you go
out and about how toxic it's become around Starmer, the kind
of visceral dislike of him inevitably damaging set of local
elections in May. We'll probably finish him off.
I mean, there is a world in which Kier Starmer serves out
the year as Prime Minister because it's so difficult to get
rid of a sitting Labour leader. After the Burnham thing, who's
most likely to be the heir to Kier and who's most excited to
be Nigel Farage? Hello and welcome to the
forecast. It was the political psychodrama
that finished off the Tories and now Labour look like they're
heading down the exact same path.
Can changing a party leader ever lead to electoral success?
Quite a lot of Labour MPs seem to think so.
That Andy Burnham won't for the moment be the man to do it for
them. Keir Starmer has seen off his
attempt but hasn't given the Prime Minister any more than a
temporary reprieve from dagger wielding colleagues.
Can travelling the globe as international statesman avoid
the blows? China and a meeting with
President Xi is his latest destination.
He says that his relentless focus is actually the cost of
living crisis at home, but other public or his MPs buying it.
Joining me to discuss it are senior political correspondent
Paul McNamara, the ipaper's chief political commentator
Kitty Donaldson and political editor of the Liverpool Echo,
Liam Thorpe, welcome to all of you.
Let me start with you, Paul. Does the Labour Party have a
Starmer problem or is it something bigger?
I mean, they have. He's one of their problems at
the moment. I think they would have an issue
with events, dear boy, events. I think the economy's not on
their side at the moment. There's a small boat crisis that
they would argue is going to be a massive factor come the
election. The biggest problem isn't within
the party, it's Nigel Farage and Reform Party and how you tackle
that is shaping all arguments that are coming before.
OK, and we'll talk about Farage and whether we've reached peak
populism at the end of the podcast.
But Kitty, let me ask you the same question.
Does the Labour Party have a Starmer problem or is it
something bigger They. Certainly do have a Starmer
problem. He polls worse than the Labour
Party as a whole and they'll be looking to replace him at some
point when that time comes. We're not entirely sure.
We think probably not till after May.
But that's what this is all been about, this weekend's
shenanigans. It's been about what happens
after May and getting the soft left preferred candidate into
Parliament. And at the moment, well, until
recently, that was Andy Burnham. That's why they're having such a
kind of breakdown about him blink, him being blocked.
And what's been going on today is chatter amongst Labour MPs
about, if not Andy, then whom? And I'm hearing that people are
now trying to convince Ed Miliband, perhaps to make a
further tilt at the leadership. Liam, it's happened quite a few
times in recent weeks, said people close to the Labour Party
or in the Labour Party. They dragged me into a quiet
corner and they whisper into my ear, you know, upon the promise
of never to repeat that to anyone else.
I think Keir Starmer will fight the next election and win,
right. So they're they're actually, you
know, enormous saying it is if they belong to some kind of
underground movement. Can you see him fighting the
next election for Labour, let alone winning but just being the
candidate I. Thought you were going to say
Matt, that they dragged you into a corner and asked you to stand
as the leader. Let's let's fix it.
I'm waiting, I'm waiting, Liam. You know, I think you've been
pulling considerably better than than Keir Starmer.
I, I, I, I can't see it. I really can't see it.
I have the advantage up in, in the northwest of, of, you know,
speaking to people in areas where Labour have historically
always been successful. But it's remarkable now when you
go out and about speaking to people, how, how toxic it's
become around Starmer. Now, now, from my personal
perspective, I think there's been plenty of disappointment,
but the, the kind of visceral dislike of him I find quite
remarkable. And I think you, you can look at
social media and, and elements of that and some of it is maybe
a little bit unfair. But I, I really do think we're,
we're kind of, that's the point of no return now.
And as Kitty says, a damaging, inevitably damaging set of local
elections in May. We'll probably finish him off.
I'm sure we'll come on to talk about Andy Burnham.
But I think that there is a, there is a big difference there.
And when, when I speak to people out and about, I went there
yesterday into Andy Burnham's birthplace in, in Aintree and
Merseyside, people absolutely love him.
They really do. He's he's, he seems to tick some
of the same boxes remarkably as Nigel Farage does, even though
they are sort of polar opposites in terms of politics.
But it's for many people, it's just in terms of relatability,
who they think is on their side. And I don't think they feel that
from Kier Starmer. Just for the for the purposes of
the fact that you are a king of the North for this podcast,
Yeah, our very own King of the North.
How does the visceral dislike or hatred against Starmer compared
to the visceral like or hatred against Corbyn when he ran just
briefly? Well, well, very different.
So in Liverpool, where I am now, and Jeremy Corbyn was actually
pretty popular, he would have big rallies here, but then you
would go to areas sort of on the outskirts, more kind of red wall
areas. And it was very much the
opposite, I'm afraid to say, for Keir Starmer across the board,
where I speak to people now, it is a very, very strong and, and
as I say, almost emotional dislike of him and what he
stands for and, and that I'm afraid is going to do for him, I
think. Liam, I've got a question for
you. When you're talking to people,
is that annoyance and anger squarely on Keir Starmer or is
there for the wider Labour Party in general?
Have they had not, have they had enough the last 18 months, all
the utiles or is it all just all on, all on Keir?
Good question. Rachel Reeves is very unpopular
as well. And both of them, you know, I
find it remarkable that I speak to people and they say I'm never
voting for Labour again because of Starmer.
I'm voting for reform. And then I say, what about Andy
Burnham? And they say, OK, if he came
back, I'd vote for Labour. So I find it really strange that
people are potentially at this sort of crossroads between a
soft left progressive mayor of Greater Manchester who believed
in a green industrial revolution and the hard right politics of
Nigel Farage. And I think that's why so much
of it comes back to the cult of personality as well.
And Keir Starmer's inability to to connect with people, connect
with voters. You know, I had a guy saying, I
mean, this isn't his fault. A guy yesterday said to me, I
can't vote for a Labour leader who's a knight of the realm.
And that that's where politics has got to in some ways, that's
not in any way Keir Starmer's fault, but it's another thing
that's counting against him as a kind of figure of the
establishment that doesn't believe or doesn't kind of
connect with working class voters.
Let me ask you, Kitty, about the man not yet called Sir Ed
Miliband. Are you really saying that Ed
Miliband, you know, who lost the previous Labour election, who,
you know, had AI mean he's been on a journey, right?
He's been on a journey from his very awkward sandwich to having
some very, you know, very, very clear views about, you know, the
environment. And, you know, when you hear him
in interviews, he seems to have, you know, improved with age and
experience, I have to say. But do you really, seriously
think that he might be in a position to replace Keir
Starmer? No, I don't.
I think this is an expression of the Labour left casting around
trying to find an alternative to where streeting.
This is what this is the current expression of with they would
rather have Angela Rayner, but she's currently on the bench for
reasons we know all too well. And therefore if they're saying,
they're saying if we can't have Angela, then who do we want
instead? And in the absence of someone
else presenting themselves, I don't know Louise Haig or Lucy
Powell or or one of these figures, who is there that we
could have, who is an alternative to West routing in
May? And Ed Miliband's name keeps
coming up. As you say, he's ruled himself
out. I, I tell you what I find
astonishing about this discussion.
We're only three minutes in or so.
Is that we, we, you know you, and I'm not even saying we, but
you seem to have all written off Keir Starmer.
And I'm not, I'm not advocating, I'm not a member of the Starmer
family. I'm not Morgan McSweeney in
disguise. I'm just wondering.
So this is my question. Let me start with you, Paul.
Is there any way that Keir Starmer can save his political
skin? I think that if you talk to
Labour MPs, pretty much all of them off the record and talking
to you quietly and like, well, you know, he's done for.
It's the machinations of, of of, of how we move on.
Now, have you met any backbenchers who think that
he'll survive? Well, there's a few loyalists
and maybe they're not backbenchers, maybe they are
paid up members of the government who are, who are
still. Back soldiers here, not people
who, yeah, like for their jobs. Even even a lot of you know,
during the election they were all called the storm troopers,
like the, the young, predominantly young men who all
look very similar to Keir Starmer.
The TV's not that dissimilar from him and even a lot of them
now pretty annoyed about how the weekends panned out for him.
So, so you, you speak to Labour MPs and you're left with the
impression of crikey, Keira's not got long left in him.
However, the thing that always comes back in my mind is that
Labour aren't quite as good at decapitating the party.
Procedures not there, it's not as easy.
Yeah, and as the Tories were, you know, everyone always
thought, you know, for years we've had one to show a million
times, David Miliband. And everyone always talks about
David Miliband. Oh, God.
You know, the the leader that could have been.
Well, he bowled it twice in 2008.
He didn't go for it. And so in the back of my mind, I
keep on thinking, yeah, you know, you talked to all these
MPs. You think Keir Simon hasn't got
long for it. However, you need someone to
wield the knife. Kitty, I guess timing is really
bad for Keir Starmer, isn't it? Because the May elections are in
May. We are now at the end of
January. He's only got a couple of months
for people to feel any improvement or for growth to
actually manifest itself, et cetera, et cetera.
But I but I'm also looking at the polls and I noticed that
there's been a slight uptick in Labour's favour, A slight down
tick, if you like, for reform or for the Greens.
And then we're going to talk about peak populism if that's
what we've reached later on in the podcast.
But I just wonder whether maybe we're seeing the beginnings of
some kind of partial recovery. And if they pitch it right ahead
of the May elections, could they game their failure and turn it
into a success in the way that Corbyn did, you know, in the
2017 general election, which he lost.
But for him, it was a kind of great personal victory, Kitty.
There's quite a lot in that question.
Sorry, yeah, it was a so it was a long one.
I keep them short of 1. I get paid by I get paid by the
word per question. That's why it's a new.
Thing that's a great gig that's a great gig I think several
things going on one is yes the polls are moving around a little
bit at the moment and strategies both in Labour and the Tories
I've spoken to think that the reform lead is very very soft
and that actually we've reached the high watermark of where
reform we're going to get to and the only way is downhill from
here. I mean of course the only that
really matters is is in May is where it's the first proper data
point we've got of what people are really thinking about
reform. And but equally May is a chance
for people to give the government a kicking.
That is why the kind of Gordon and Dent thing is so interesting
is that it would have provided another data point.
But also Andy Burnham polls above the the Labour national
average and therefore probably probably could have probably the
only person who could have held onto that seat for them.
And I've forgotten the rest of your questions, Matt, but I
think you kind of. You've why don't we just say
you've? That was a brilliant answer,
Kitty. I've forgotten the rest of my
questions too, so let me move on to Liam.
Liam, do you think that Andy Burnham could have saved Labour
in the May elections had he been elected leader?
I mean MP first and then leader. Yeah, you were jumping ahead of
yourself there, but I think that's, we all know that's where
it was going. Yeah, I, I've written a column
on this. I've my, my sort of colours are
nailed to the mast. I, I do believe from, from my
experience of, of speaking to people and and the general kind
of consensus I've gathered that Ivandy Burnham, as Kitty says,
if he had stood in Gordon and Denton, I think he's probably
the only candidate who could win that for Labour.
You look at the, the individual polling of Labour with or
without Burnham up against reform in that, in that by
election and it's, it's, it's about four or five percentage
points different either way. So I feel sorry for who whoever
Labour selected as their candidate.
I think that they're in a really difficult position because I
think if you were in Gorton and Denton, you have you, you were
hoping to vote for the very successful mayor of the city
region that you live in. Who, who, I think across the
board has to be regarded as the most successful city region
mayor that we've probably seen in the, the, the devolved world,
that devolved country that we live in.
And then you've suddenly seen that his party have blocked him
from standing. I think that people who were
even on the fence about Labour would go the other way and that
people who are, who are already going the other way will be even
more entrenched in their vote for reform.
So I think that Burnham could have, could have, could
definitely have won that for Labour and that would have been
a massive boost for Starmer as well.
I think it I think this only hastens his his dissent really.
Right, Paul, do you think that if he had been elected, if if,
if, if had he been elected and got the Benton, do you think he
could have turned things round naturally actually had he then
been elected leader of the party?
I, I don't know, I think Liam will have a better still on this
than me, but I think the jury is still out on Andy Burnham.
Like he's benefited massively by being the King of the North, not
just because he gets to be the king of the North and bowl about
Manchester and looking great. Could he be the king of
everywhere? Well, and when you're the king
of the North, you're not facing questions about everywhere else.
You're not. You're not daily or at least
weekly, put on a platform where you have to answer for yourself.
We have to answer difficult questions.
He's not out doing morning rounds and, and, you know, being
made to look a mug on, on, on the Today programme or, or on
Channel 4 News or anywhere. So he's benefited by, not by not
having that national presence, really.
Kitty, have we projected things onto Andy Burnham, you know, or
some people not not us necessarily, but have people
projected stuff onto Andy Burnham that Andy Burnham
doesn't have? Is he like a sort of Christmas
wish list of political talent that we will never see whether
it actually, you know, holds up under fire?
Yes, yes, I think so. And also this weekend's done
nothing to, to do to dissipate that impression, has it?
He's now a martyr in the eyes of, you know, of the Labour left
and, and will continue to be so until he gets his chance to
shine. I mean, the other thing is, you
know, Andy Burnham's been on quite a political journey.
You know, I looked up some of his contributions to a Treasury
Select Committee the other day, you know, because I have nothing
better to do. And he he was, he sounded almost
George Osborne like in his, in his sort of appreciation for,
for sound fiscal prudence to, you know, to quote Gordon Brown.
And, and it's extraordinary that now, you know, now he's talking
about not being in hop to the bond market.
I mean, the idea that this guy could come in and basically
borrow how much he wants to build more council houses and,
and the bond markets wouldn't react.
It's just nonsense. So in fact, the bond markets
were even reacting to the idea that he might get Gorton and
Denton. So so, you know, and this is
before we've even got onto the idea that he's going to stand up
next to Donald Trump and, you know, be the saviour of the left
and sort of, you know, do have their Love Actually moment or
whatever people trying to project onto him.
It's just, I think it's just nonsense.
Would he have picked up Donald Trump's papers from the trade
deal that Trump dropped to the ground?
That's a key question. You know, Keir Starmer picked
them up, you know, like the good supplicant that he is.
And would Andy Burnham have done that?
I don't know. Liam, let me ask you, just a
quick one. I'm just fascinated by this.
So Andy Burnham has been mulling this idea, you know, of standing
in this, you know, in the by election that's coming up.
He must have known that there was a very good chance that Keir
Starmer would and his people would block him.
So why did he do it anyway? Is it because he once martyrdom
status or because he thought there was a chance that they
wouldn't block him? What's going on in his mind?
I mean, you're right, you know, you would assess, assess that
he's done his homework and realised the make up of that NEC
was, was absolutely not in his favour.
Including the Prime Minister himself, of course, who I was a
little bit surprised to see cast a vote in a what many would see
as a slightly petty move. But I think that it's both
things. I think that he did think that
there was possibly a chance that he would appeal to hear
Starmer's vulnerabilities and that that Starmer would look and
say, look, I'm going to look incredibly weak if I block Andy
Burnham from coming in. I'm going to look like I'm
scared of people within my own party.
And, and it will, I will write the opposition's attacks for
themselves for the next few months, which I think is what
has happened. And I think Burnham thought I'll
take my chances on that and, and the net result if they block me
and I get to go back to my successful job as Great
Manchester mayor. OK, a few people might have
their noses put out a joint, but I think most people in Great
Manchester will welcome him back.
And he gets to look like a martyr.
And I think only probably, Yeah. Hastings, the demise of Keir
Starmer. So I think, yeah.
But Burnham had it win, win. Starmer had it lose, lose.
And Starmer really lost. Liam, I've got a question for
you. So a hefty chunk of Keir's
argument was, look, it would cause a mayoral by election that
cost four and a half, £1,000,000 of taxpayer money.
That is almost offensive for us to ask taxpayers to dip into
their pocket. What are the people of Great
Manchester think though? Do they think, yeah, thanks Keir
for saving us Four and a half, £1,000,000 I think.
No, no, no, this is just poppycock.
I don't, I mean it's a fairpoint, but I don't, I mean I
think everyone sees through it. Nobody believes that's the
reason why they stopped it. Nobody thinks that if it if it
was in their advantage that they wouldn't happily fold in that
£5,000,000. There's no thanks to Kier
posters going up all over the place.
No, no, cheers for that 5 minutes.
I've seen loads by the way. This is how we're going to spend
it. You know, I just don't think
anyone buys it. That's the problem.
And also, I think you could, you could make the argument that
they can fold it in with local elections, they can work it
around and, and ultimately people won't know where that 5
million has gone. So I don't think that really
watches. I think what they do see in
Great Manchester is the threat of reform.
And I think that they, they will have thought that reform, we're
going to now win this by election.
And Andy Burnham was the only person who who could beat them.
I, I, I, you know, I've got family who live in Great
Manchester. They're very, very fond of him
as a mayor. They think he's done great
things on transport. But it's not like he's just
started. He's, he's into his third term,
so I don't think he could, he could be accused of abandoning
Grey Manchester. He's, he's done 8-9 years and he
would be set leaving them in a very decent position.
So I, I, I, I don't think that argument works either.
I think they just, they, you know, Starmer and Co knew that
he was a massive threat. Katie, I just want to get back
to this point because I don't think any of you really answer
the question. Is there any result in May other
than victory, which is highly unlikely, that saves Keir
Starmer's skin? I mean, there is a world in
which Keir Starmer serves out the year as Prime Minister
because it's so difficult to get rid of a sitting Labour leader.
You need 80 Labour MPs to to gather behind a challenger.
And then even if there's a challenge Keir Starmer could
could win, win any election. And that there is a world in
which Labour left doesn't get itself, doesn't get his act
together, doesn't come up with a verbal candidate to to where
streeting and therefore Keir beats Wes in a in a leadership
contest. I mean, I think that's quite
unlikely if you ever got to that point, because I think even even
those in the party who support care and who are, you know, even
vaguely grateful that he won them their seats.
Think that take one look at his poll ratings.
I think actually this guy is not going to lead into the next
general election And and we need to change, change front man.
And if that's if that's Wes, then OK, maybe we'll grit our
teeth And and even if we don't like his politics, particularly,
although Wes has tacked the left little bit in recent months,
even if we don't like his politics, we will, we will, we
will grit our teeth and get on with it because we think that
words perhaps is the is the better chance of of, you know,
seeing off reform of seeing off the Greens and the Lib Dems.
Liam, what about you? I mean, I think that Nigel
Farage, Mr. Mr. Farage once said that he fears Angela Rayner more
than any other candidate. I'm not sure whether he was just
playing with us, but she's got the populist touch.
You know, she's she's a great communicator who is most likely
in your book and in it's early days and, you know, things
always moving. But after the Burnham thing,
who's most likely to be the heir to Kier and who's most likely to
be Nigel Farage? Well, I, I agree with with, with
Kissy that when you take Burnham out of the equation, it's a,
it's a bit of a mess. And I was speaking to MPs in
Merseyside after the Burnham situation and they said that it
could well be Angela versus Wes. But of course Angela is, has
this very recent baggage. And however, whatever you think
of it, whether you think it was a little bit unfair that she
lost her job over it, it's just red meat to the, to the right
wing newspapers who would just go after her relentlessly.
And I think it's kind of, it's maybe a little bit unfeasible
that someone who resigned as a Deputy Prime Minister over a
situation like that so recently is then going to stand for
leader. I do think that without that she
would be the the obvious candidate.
I can't against where Streeting, who is obviously that certainly
we know about his leadership ambition.
I personally don't think that Streeting is the man to beat
reform. I think he's he's way too
connected to the the the current administration.
I think he's he he won't be seen as the the thing that Andy
Burnham's got on his side. I know I keep going back to him
is that he's not seen as this. I know, I know it's interesting
because he certainly very much was part of this kind of
government elite, you know, he was cabinet secretary and and
things like that. But since he's moved out of
Westminster to the great Manchester area, he's seen as
kind of outside the bubble looking in, talking about the
things that are wrong with the country in the way that he can.
Now, he won't be able to do that, of course, back in
Parliament, but from the outside he can.
So I think it's, yeah, Angela and Wes.
I can't really think of anyone else.
I was surprised to hear Ed Miliband fancying another Tilt
tattoo. It's a bit of a bit of a retro
throwback, but I can't see that myself.
Kitty, I've got a question for both of you actually on this
one, because this you make a really good point there about
where's, you know, being from the same wing of the party and
he's going to be seen as too linked to care to to whatever
people. But then when it comes to
reform, there's a completely different argument because you
look at the main, the big faces now that are popping up all over
reform and it's former members of Boris Johnson's government.
And you've got 2 arguments here, which are, which are sort of
going head to head where you're like, well, if the biggest, if
the biggest challenge is reform and yet the biggest faces in
reform are people from Boris Johnson's government.
So people either have it in their head that no, they're 2
links so I can't vote for them. Or actually, the general public
just isn't as quite politically savvy and don't really see the
inner machinations that all of us see, so I don't.
I'm interested in a pair of you, how you think.
It's a really long question by the way, sorry, but.
There was only one point. That was longer than you said it
was. Longer than mine.
I timed it. It was like 2 1/2 minutes.
OK. If if you can hear a question
that would do, please answer Liam. 111 response I would say
to that, which is that no, I mean, I agree.
I think that the, the influx of, of Tories from the sort of
particularly the chaotic final years of, of their
administrations is, is becoming a mistake and a problem for
reform. I think it's very hard for you
to continue to market yourselves as the kind of insurgents coming
from the outside the establishment, even though we
all know that's nonsense anyway. But it is something they've
successfully branded themselves as if you have, you know, you
are truck full of cabinet ministers who were part of the
Tory administrations that left the country in such a poor
state. I think I'm finding it it's sort
of continual. You know, the Spider man meme
where everyone's looking at each other.
It's like, well, hold on. I keep saying Robert Genrick
talk about how the Tories broke Britain and Suella Bravaman
talking about how these other parties failed.
And it's like, I I don't know how stupid you think people are.
Like we all know that you were prominent members of these
governments. I don't know whether that
translates across the board to the general public.
So far, Reform have managed to hold that off.
But I think the more people that they add to from, from those
various failed administrations, the bigger problem is going to
be for them. So have we reached peak populism
Kitty? Hard to say.
I mean I think, well, I think May will just be everyone
kicking everyone or everyone kicking the government, everyone
kicking the Tories and that and that will be the high point.
And then I think Liam's right, people will start to take a
closer look at Reform in the run up to the next general election.
And I mean Reform is still trying to get Tories over.
Not too much councillors or, you know, lower ranking ex MPs, but
I think they still want to get as many sitting Tories as they
possibly can just to bolster the numbers in Parliament.
But you're but Liam's right. Like the more, the more of them
you get, the more you look like a retirement home for failed
Tories and the more you can't present yourself as as the kind
of outsiders. But we've got quite a long time
until the next election. I mean, I don't want to sound
like a Labour Party spokesperson, but things might
improve. In fact, what Labour's sort of
putting their hopes on is that I think in Iraq to May is that in
April the leaseholders reform bill gets gets enacted and
therefore renters rights will improve.
And they can start pointing to that if the economy starts
improving. I mean, that's very slow.
You know, if inflation keeps keeps coming down, people have.
To feel it, though, don't they? I mean, you know, it's one thing
to talk about growth numbers. You've got to actually feel it.
Just want to ask you about something else and start with
you, Paul. We haven't talked about Trump
yet. I mean, Trump is such an
extraordinary presence on the global stage that he kind of
washes up on your domestic doorstep as well.
Does Farage have a Trump problem?
Has Kia dealt with Trump well enough to be rewarded for it by
the voters? What do you?
Think, I think the government certainly thinks that they've
handled Trump very well. I I don't want to make a big
deal of it, but I'm a pretty big deal and I was in Davos last
week. You mixing it?
Yeah, mixing it with the with the really is.
Yeah, I'm a, I'm a, I'm a big. Deal.
But why didn't we don't remember your speech?
Did you give a speech? I did gave many speeches.
He was after Mark Carney. They were big and beautiful.
Because people, they remember Mark Carney's speech, but not.
Anyway, listen there I. Buddy.
Oh, Matt. Jesus.
No, no. Anyway, I didn't know.
I'm just jealous that you were there.
But look, they Labour, the Labour Party think they handled
Trump over last week really, really well and like speaking to
Rachel Reeves team. But is he being rewarded for it,
do you think, by the voters, by the in the opinion polls?
It doesn't appear so at the at the moment and I think it is a
common thing that prime ministers really, I mean, Kerry
is over in China at the moment. He does really well on a foreign
stage, looking like a world leader.
Does he get appreciated for that at home?
No and no, no, no prime, no Prime Minister does on the
ground. Boris Johnson loved being in
Ukraine. You know, David Cameron, he was
all about Libya. But do you vote?
Does that really ring true with the electorate, especially when
you're in the middle of a cost of living crisis?
I think there was killed by too much presence, the fatal
attraction to George Bush, you know, too much presence on the
global stage. Liam, do you think Trump helps
Starmer and hurts Farage because of Trump's Farage?
You know Trump and Farage's friendship.
Yeah, I mean, well, Farage is definitely finding it more and
more awkward. He's having to give fairly kind
of mediocre admonishments to Trump over things like
Greenland, which he clearly finds difficult.
I think that, you know, we know that Trump, Trump doesn't pull
well in the UK, so I think Labour should keep pushing that
one. I agree with Paul.
I think that Starmer's best, greatest successes in his time
in office have been on the world stage.
But I also agree with you, Matt. I just don't think it translates
again to go back out to, you know, where I was in Saint
Helen's the other week at a council that's been run by
Labour since largely since 1974, that I fully expect to Labour to
lose in May and for reform to be at least the largest party.
No one was talking about Donald Trump.
Everyone was talking about the cost of living, about the state
of the town centre, about the fact that they can't afford food
in the shops. It's it's all anyone's talking
about. And the stuff with Trump is
seen. I think there's a bit of a
distraction on the side, even though, as you say, it has an
effect on all of that. But I don't think that Starmer's
presence on the world stage is is translating to the domestic
agenda. Katie, the the one moment I
thought that Reform might actually be in trouble because
of Trump's friendship with Farage was when he made that
comment about British troops, you know, not really getting
involved and staying away from the front line in Afghanistan.
I mean, then you're really, really, you know, touching a
neuralgic nerve, you know, in the kind of in the kind of at
the heart of the reform movement or indeed, you know, the old
labour movement. I mean, being dissing British
troops after 457 of them have been killed in Afghanistan and
thousands more had life changing injuries was a really bad idea.
And I could just see Nigel Farage squirm when that was
being said. And there will be many, many
more moments about that, you know, coming from Trump in the
future, I'm sure. So, Kitty, you know, again, is
that a problem that Farage faces?
Or is is the populist headman so strong that it doesn't really
matter? Well, Nigel Farage has done a
fairly good job of distancing himself from from Trump, I think
in the last few months and weeks.
And I was fascinated by by what the kind of chain of events that
led up to Trump sort of semi backing down.
You know, he, he got up in the on the, I think it was the
Monday morning and said, oh, I didn't really mean it.
And that was after the king and the Prime Minister had basically
the king had sent a note over the weekend expressing his
displeasure and, and Sir Keir Stamer spoke to him on the
Sunday. And I think that showed the kind
of you wonder which had the most impact.
I wonder whether it was the King's note that had had more of
an impact perhaps than Starmer kind of lecturing, lecturing
Trump on the phone. But I mean, aren't we talking
about a life post Trump though? Because by the time the general
election comes round, we're going to be looking at who's
next, aren't we? We're going to be looking at is
it JD Vance, Is it Marco Rubio? Who is who is the person in in
the White House? Democrat?
Do you remember the Democrat? Yeah, I'd like to say.
No, I'd like to say. Assuming that.
Biden. Obama.
You know Clinton. This is Channel 4.
Absolutely.
Of course, there might be a new West Wing.
Don't start profiling us, Kitty. Like that we're.
Slavishly neutral. Let me, let me finish on, let me
finish on. A very quick question to all of
you is, you know, again, if it comes to push comes to shove, is
the fact that the reformers absorbing all these Tories, even
if they're husbands, does it make them more clubbable?
You know, to people in the middle who still find the idea
of voting for reform a little bit, you know, out, you know,
off of Broadway that they'll vote for them because of all
these former Tories there. And therefore, in a contest
between Reform and Labour, does Reform win it quickly?
First you, Liam, then Kitty, then Paul I think.
The more Tories that enter, particularly from who were a
Tory government that was so roundly beaten for its failures
over 14 years, becomes a bigger problem for reform.
I think Zia Youssef has actually said they're going to stop,
they're going to have a deadline for when they stop inviting them
all in, so they're getting their applications in.
You can no longer sell us any second hand clothes after this
day. We will not accept your pre
loved items in this shop. OK, what about you?
Kitty, I mean so, so and I just think that that will become a
bigger problem for them the more they come in here.
All right, Kitty, what do you think?
Is Reform unacceptable still for so many people that they even if
they don't like the Labour Party, they can't quite bring
themselves to see Nigel Farage and #10?
I think actually it's the economics that's the problem, is
that they're so all over the place and they're slightly hazy
economic plans. It's like you never quite know
which way they're going to jump. Are they?
Are they, you know, I, I for ages thought that Nigel Farage
was a Thatcherite. And then you look at some of
these state control of, of coal industry and you think, hang on
a second, this isn't very Thatcherite and and welfare
payments as well, and which is, is an odd place to land.
I thought for, for reform. So I think we need to drill down
and more into what they actually think.
But I think actually people are projecting on to reform at the
moment the same way that perhaps they're projecting onto Andy
Burnham. You know, these are outsiders
and that they will come in and they will do what I think I want
them to do rather than necessarily what they what
they're saying. So, Paul, maybe Keir Starmer's
the pot plant of British politics, sort of maligned,
ignored, not watered enough, you know, written off, and suddenly
he's still there. Have you just got a call or a
text from Morgan McSweeney? I'm sure that Morgan would use
slightly more flattering language about his boss, but
you're writing him off too, right?
Hey, Stammer. Versus Stammer versus Farage,
who becomes Prime Minister. I'm not right, I know.
It's a parliamentary system. I'm not writing him off that
fence. His, his own and many of his own
MPs have already written him off.
I think ultimately what it what it comes down to.
Back to what Kitty was saying earlier on, the mechanism is far
from simple and what we know from history, the Labour
backbenches and the people who would be challenging are not
happy or not overly keen on wielding the knife.
And those two things may be the thing that makes Keir Starmer
stay in post for as long as possible.
I've just had a brilliant idea turn the podcast on.
I want from each of you a single word that sums up the last, you
know, year and a half of Labour government.
One word ball, one word. Disappointing, disappointing
Kitty. Phonetically disappointing. 2
words. OK, Liam.
If it's got a dash in the middle, I think it's one word
U-turn. OK, all right, OK, that's it.
Very encouraging stuff from all of you.
None of you are going to be on Morgan Mcsweeney's Christmas
card list next year, I fear. Anyway, who knows?
Liam Thorpe, Kitty Donaldson, Poor Mike Namara.
Thank you very much to all of you.
That was the forecast. Hope you enjoyed it.
See you next time.