1 00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:02,240 You speak to Labour MPs and you're left with the impression 2 00:00:02,240 --> 00:00:04,800 of Crikey. Kier has not got long left in 3 00:00:04,800 --> 00:00:06,520 him. However, you need someone to 4 00:00:06,520 --> 00:00:08,760 wield a knife. It's remarkable now when you go 5 00:00:08,760 --> 00:00:11,560 out and about how toxic it's become around Starmer, the kind 6 00:00:11,560 --> 00:00:15,360 of visceral dislike of him inevitably damaging set of local 7 00:00:15,360 --> 00:00:17,600 elections in May. We'll probably finish him off. 8 00:00:17,640 --> 00:00:20,200 I mean, there is a world in which Kier Starmer serves out 9 00:00:20,200 --> 00:00:23,240 the year as Prime Minister because it's so difficult to get 10 00:00:23,240 --> 00:00:26,520 rid of a sitting Labour leader. After the Burnham thing, who's 11 00:00:26,520 --> 00:00:30,480 most likely to be the heir to Kier and who's most excited to 12 00:00:30,480 --> 00:00:36,280 be Nigel Farage? Hello and welcome to the 13 00:00:36,280 --> 00:00:39,360 forecast. It was the political psychodrama 14 00:00:39,360 --> 00:00:42,320 that finished off the Tories and now Labour look like they're 15 00:00:42,320 --> 00:00:44,120 heading down the exact same path. 16 00:00:44,360 --> 00:00:48,840 Can changing a party leader ever lead to electoral success? 17 00:00:49,240 --> 00:00:51,320 Quite a lot of Labour MPs seem to think so. 18 00:00:51,480 --> 00:00:55,120 That Andy Burnham won't for the moment be the man to do it for 19 00:00:55,120 --> 00:00:57,280 them. Keir Starmer has seen off his 20 00:00:57,280 --> 00:01:00,120 attempt but hasn't given the Prime Minister any more than a 21 00:01:00,120 --> 00:01:03,360 temporary reprieve from dagger wielding colleagues. 22 00:01:03,680 --> 00:01:06,480 Can travelling the globe as international statesman avoid 23 00:01:06,480 --> 00:01:08,640 the blows? China and a meeting with 24 00:01:08,640 --> 00:01:11,360 President Xi is his latest destination. 25 00:01:11,760 --> 00:01:15,240 He says that his relentless focus is actually the cost of 26 00:01:15,240 --> 00:01:20,320 living crisis at home, but other public or his MPs buying it. 27 00:01:20,840 --> 00:01:23,800 Joining me to discuss it are senior political correspondent 28 00:01:23,800 --> 00:01:27,240 Paul McNamara, the ipaper's chief political commentator 29 00:01:27,480 --> 00:01:30,920 Kitty Donaldson and political editor of the Liverpool Echo, 30 00:01:31,160 --> 00:01:33,040 Liam Thorpe, welcome to all of you. 31 00:01:33,280 --> 00:01:38,280 Let me start with you, Paul. Does the Labour Party have a 32 00:01:38,400 --> 00:01:40,360 Starmer problem or is it something bigger? 33 00:01:41,120 --> 00:01:45,200 I mean, they have. He's one of their problems at 34 00:01:45,200 --> 00:01:47,400 the moment. I think they would have an issue 35 00:01:47,400 --> 00:01:51,640 with events, dear boy, events. I think the economy's not on 36 00:01:51,640 --> 00:01:55,080 their side at the moment. There's a small boat crisis that 37 00:01:55,080 --> 00:01:59,040 they would argue is going to be a massive factor come the 38 00:01:59,080 --> 00:02:02,960 election. The biggest problem isn't within 39 00:02:02,960 --> 00:02:08,199 the party, it's Nigel Farage and Reform Party and how you tackle 40 00:02:08,199 --> 00:02:11,360 that is shaping all arguments that are coming before. 41 00:02:11,480 --> 00:02:14,000 OK, and we'll talk about Farage and whether we've reached peak 42 00:02:14,000 --> 00:02:15,800 populism at the end of the podcast. 43 00:02:15,800 --> 00:02:17,440 But Kitty, let me ask you the same question. 44 00:02:17,760 --> 00:02:19,760 Does the Labour Party have a Starmer problem or is it 45 00:02:19,760 --> 00:02:22,880 something bigger They. Certainly do have a Starmer 46 00:02:22,880 --> 00:02:24,920 problem. He polls worse than the Labour 47 00:02:24,920 --> 00:02:30,120 Party as a whole and they'll be looking to replace him at some 48 00:02:30,120 --> 00:02:32,320 point when that time comes. We're not entirely sure. 49 00:02:32,320 --> 00:02:34,280 We think probably not till after May. 50 00:02:34,920 --> 00:02:36,840 But that's what this is all been about, this weekend's 51 00:02:36,840 --> 00:02:38,680 shenanigans. It's been about what happens 52 00:02:38,680 --> 00:02:42,880 after May and getting the soft left preferred candidate into 53 00:02:42,880 --> 00:02:44,960 Parliament. And at the moment, well, until 54 00:02:44,960 --> 00:02:47,720 recently, that was Andy Burnham. That's why they're having such a 55 00:02:47,720 --> 00:02:51,160 kind of breakdown about him blink, him being blocked. 56 00:02:51,200 --> 00:02:55,040 And what's been going on today is chatter amongst Labour MPs 57 00:02:55,040 --> 00:02:59,760 about, if not Andy, then whom? And I'm hearing that people are 58 00:02:59,760 --> 00:03:03,920 now trying to convince Ed Miliband, perhaps to make a 59 00:03:04,160 --> 00:03:08,080 further tilt at the leadership. Liam, it's happened quite a few 60 00:03:08,080 --> 00:03:10,840 times in recent weeks, said people close to the Labour Party 61 00:03:10,840 --> 00:03:13,160 or in the Labour Party. They dragged me into a quiet 62 00:03:13,160 --> 00:03:16,800 corner and they whisper into my ear, you know, upon the promise 63 00:03:16,800 --> 00:03:18,360 of never to repeat that to anyone else. 64 00:03:18,680 --> 00:03:22,360 I think Keir Starmer will fight the next election and win, 65 00:03:22,760 --> 00:03:24,680 right. So they're they're actually, you 66 00:03:24,680 --> 00:03:26,560 know, enormous saying it is if they belong to some kind of 67 00:03:26,560 --> 00:03:29,920 underground movement. Can you see him fighting the 68 00:03:29,920 --> 00:03:32,320 next election for Labour, let alone winning but just being the 69 00:03:32,320 --> 00:03:34,600 candidate I. Thought you were going to say 70 00:03:34,600 --> 00:03:36,760 Matt, that they dragged you into a corner and asked you to stand 71 00:03:36,760 --> 00:03:38,800 as the leader. Let's let's fix it. 72 00:03:38,800 --> 00:03:42,040 I'm waiting, I'm waiting, Liam. You know, I think you've been 73 00:03:42,040 --> 00:03:44,600 pulling considerably better than than Keir Starmer. 74 00:03:45,400 --> 00:03:48,280 I, I, I, I can't see it. I really can't see it. 75 00:03:49,280 --> 00:03:52,360 I have the advantage up in, in the northwest of, of, you know, 76 00:03:52,360 --> 00:03:56,200 speaking to people in areas where Labour have historically 77 00:03:56,200 --> 00:03:59,760 always been successful. But it's remarkable now when you 78 00:03:59,760 --> 00:04:03,760 go out and about speaking to people, how, how toxic it's 79 00:04:03,760 --> 00:04:06,120 become around Starmer. Now, now, from my personal 80 00:04:06,120 --> 00:04:08,280 perspective, I think there's been plenty of disappointment, 81 00:04:08,480 --> 00:04:12,080 but the, the kind of visceral dislike of him I find quite 82 00:04:12,080 --> 00:04:13,880 remarkable. And I think you, you can look at 83 00:04:14,160 --> 00:04:16,360 social media and, and elements of that and some of it is maybe 84 00:04:16,360 --> 00:04:18,600 a little bit unfair. But I, I really do think we're, 85 00:04:18,720 --> 00:04:20,680 we're kind of, that's the point of no return now. 86 00:04:20,680 --> 00:04:24,560 And as Kitty says, a damaging, inevitably damaging set of local 87 00:04:24,560 --> 00:04:26,840 elections in May. We'll probably finish him off. 88 00:04:27,120 --> 00:04:29,080 I'm sure we'll come on to talk about Andy Burnham. 89 00:04:29,080 --> 00:04:31,400 But I think that there is a, there is a big difference there. 90 00:04:31,400 --> 00:04:34,800 And when, when I speak to people out and about, I went there 91 00:04:34,840 --> 00:04:37,600 yesterday into Andy Burnham's birthplace in, in Aintree and 92 00:04:37,600 --> 00:04:39,600 Merseyside, people absolutely love him. 93 00:04:39,680 --> 00:04:42,480 They really do. He's he's, he seems to tick some 94 00:04:42,480 --> 00:04:45,560 of the same boxes remarkably as Nigel Farage does, even though 95 00:04:45,560 --> 00:04:48,000 they are sort of polar opposites in terms of politics. 96 00:04:48,000 --> 00:04:51,080 But it's for many people, it's just in terms of relatability, 97 00:04:51,080 --> 00:04:53,760 who they think is on their side. And I don't think they feel that 98 00:04:53,760 --> 00:04:56,880 from Kier Starmer. Just for the for the purposes of 99 00:04:57,400 --> 00:05:00,040 the fact that you are a king of the North for this podcast, 100 00:05:01,520 --> 00:05:02,840 Yeah, our very own King of the North. 101 00:05:03,040 --> 00:05:07,800 How does the visceral dislike or hatred against Starmer compared 102 00:05:07,800 --> 00:05:11,160 to the visceral like or hatred against Corbyn when he ran just 103 00:05:11,160 --> 00:05:14,160 briefly? Well, well, very different. 104 00:05:14,160 --> 00:05:16,800 So in Liverpool, where I am now, and Jeremy Corbyn was actually 105 00:05:16,880 --> 00:05:19,520 pretty popular, he would have big rallies here, but then you 106 00:05:19,520 --> 00:05:22,360 would go to areas sort of on the outskirts, more kind of red wall 107 00:05:22,360 --> 00:05:23,840 areas. And it was very much the 108 00:05:23,840 --> 00:05:27,640 opposite, I'm afraid to say, for Keir Starmer across the board, 109 00:05:27,640 --> 00:05:31,320 where I speak to people now, it is a very, very strong and, and 110 00:05:31,320 --> 00:05:35,600 as I say, almost emotional dislike of him and what he 111 00:05:35,600 --> 00:05:39,200 stands for and, and that I'm afraid is going to do for him, I 112 00:05:39,200 --> 00:05:41,280 think. Liam, I've got a question for 113 00:05:41,280 --> 00:05:42,960 you. When you're talking to people, 114 00:05:43,200 --> 00:05:50,040 is that annoyance and anger squarely on Keir Starmer or is 115 00:05:50,040 --> 00:05:52,520 there for the wider Labour Party in general? 116 00:05:52,520 --> 00:05:55,560 Have they had not, have they had enough the last 18 months, all 117 00:05:55,560 --> 00:05:58,720 the utiles or is it all just all on, all on Keir? 118 00:05:59,840 --> 00:06:01,800 Good question. Rachel Reeves is very unpopular 119 00:06:01,800 --> 00:06:04,400 as well. And both of them, you know, I 120 00:06:04,400 --> 00:06:07,960 find it remarkable that I speak to people and they say I'm never 121 00:06:07,960 --> 00:06:09,720 voting for Labour again because of Starmer. 122 00:06:09,880 --> 00:06:12,520 I'm voting for reform. And then I say, what about Andy 123 00:06:12,520 --> 00:06:14,400 Burnham? And they say, OK, if he came 124 00:06:14,400 --> 00:06:16,720 back, I'd vote for Labour. So I find it really strange that 125 00:06:16,720 --> 00:06:19,920 people are potentially at this sort of crossroads between a 126 00:06:19,920 --> 00:06:23,760 soft left progressive mayor of Greater Manchester who believed 127 00:06:23,760 --> 00:06:26,480 in a green industrial revolution and the hard right politics of 128 00:06:26,480 --> 00:06:28,600 Nigel Farage. And I think that's why so much 129 00:06:28,600 --> 00:06:30,640 of it comes back to the cult of personality as well. 130 00:06:30,920 --> 00:06:34,200 And Keir Starmer's inability to to connect with people, connect 131 00:06:34,200 --> 00:06:36,040 with voters. You know, I had a guy saying, I 132 00:06:36,080 --> 00:06:38,360 mean, this isn't his fault. A guy yesterday said to me, I 133 00:06:38,360 --> 00:06:40,760 can't vote for a Labour leader who's a knight of the realm. 134 00:06:40,960 --> 00:06:43,120 And that that's where politics has got to in some ways, that's 135 00:06:43,120 --> 00:06:45,440 not in any way Keir Starmer's fault, but it's another thing 136 00:06:45,440 --> 00:06:47,760 that's counting against him as a kind of figure of the 137 00:06:47,760 --> 00:06:50,440 establishment that doesn't believe or doesn't kind of 138 00:06:50,440 --> 00:06:52,360 connect with working class voters. 139 00:06:52,520 --> 00:06:55,360 Let me ask you, Kitty, about the man not yet called Sir Ed 140 00:06:55,360 --> 00:06:57,000 Miliband. Are you really saying that Ed 141 00:06:57,000 --> 00:07:00,920 Miliband, you know, who lost the previous Labour election, who, 142 00:07:01,000 --> 00:07:03,680 you know, had AI mean he's been on a journey, right? 143 00:07:03,680 --> 00:07:06,560 He's been on a journey from his very awkward sandwich to having 144 00:07:06,560 --> 00:07:10,240 some very, you know, very, very clear views about, you know, the 145 00:07:10,240 --> 00:07:12,000 environment. And, you know, when you hear him 146 00:07:12,000 --> 00:07:15,840 in interviews, he seems to have, you know, improved with age and 147 00:07:15,840 --> 00:07:19,040 experience, I have to say. But do you really, seriously 148 00:07:19,040 --> 00:07:21,120 think that he might be in a position to replace Keir 149 00:07:21,120 --> 00:07:23,160 Starmer? No, I don't. 150 00:07:23,280 --> 00:07:29,000 I think this is an expression of the Labour left casting around 151 00:07:29,000 --> 00:07:31,920 trying to find an alternative to where streeting. 152 00:07:31,920 --> 00:07:36,040 This is what this is the current expression of with they would 153 00:07:36,040 --> 00:07:38,800 rather have Angela Rayner, but she's currently on the bench for 154 00:07:38,800 --> 00:07:42,640 reasons we know all too well. And therefore if they're saying, 155 00:07:42,840 --> 00:07:45,040 they're saying if we can't have Angela, then who do we want 156 00:07:45,040 --> 00:07:47,960 instead? And in the absence of someone 157 00:07:47,960 --> 00:07:52,320 else presenting themselves, I don't know Louise Haig or Lucy 158 00:07:52,320 --> 00:07:55,720 Powell or or one of these figures, who is there that we 159 00:07:55,720 --> 00:07:58,160 could have, who is an alternative to West routing in 160 00:07:58,160 --> 00:08:00,800 May? And Ed Miliband's name keeps 161 00:08:00,800 --> 00:08:02,360 coming up. As you say, he's ruled himself 162 00:08:02,360 --> 00:08:05,240 out. I, I tell you what I find 163 00:08:05,240 --> 00:08:06,440 astonishing about this discussion. 164 00:08:06,440 --> 00:08:07,720 We're only three minutes in or so. 165 00:08:07,720 --> 00:08:10,520 Is that we, we, you know you, and I'm not even saying we, but 166 00:08:10,520 --> 00:08:12,480 you seem to have all written off Keir Starmer. 167 00:08:12,800 --> 00:08:15,040 And I'm not, I'm not advocating, I'm not a member of the Starmer 168 00:08:15,040 --> 00:08:16,640 family. I'm not Morgan McSweeney in 169 00:08:16,640 --> 00:08:18,320 disguise. I'm just wondering. 170 00:08:18,320 --> 00:08:20,200 So this is my question. Let me start with you, Paul. 171 00:08:20,400 --> 00:08:23,200 Is there any way that Keir Starmer can save his political 172 00:08:23,200 --> 00:08:25,720 skin? I think that if you talk to 173 00:08:26,240 --> 00:08:31,480 Labour MPs, pretty much all of them off the record and talking 174 00:08:31,480 --> 00:08:34,480 to you quietly and like, well, you know, he's done for. 175 00:08:35,280 --> 00:08:38,120 It's the machinations of, of of, of how we move on. 176 00:08:38,520 --> 00:08:40,200 Now, have you met any backbenchers who think that 177 00:08:40,200 --> 00:08:42,240 he'll survive? Well, there's a few loyalists 178 00:08:42,360 --> 00:08:44,600 and maybe they're not backbenchers, maybe they are 179 00:08:44,600 --> 00:08:46,440 paid up members of the government who are, who are 180 00:08:46,440 --> 00:08:48,240 still. Back soldiers here, not people 181 00:08:48,240 --> 00:08:51,960 who, yeah, like for their jobs. Even even a lot of you know, 182 00:08:51,960 --> 00:08:54,080 during the election they were all called the storm troopers, 183 00:08:54,080 --> 00:08:57,520 like the, the young, predominantly young men who all 184 00:08:57,520 --> 00:08:58,880 look very similar to Keir Starmer. 185 00:08:58,880 --> 00:09:02,400 The TV's not that dissimilar from him and even a lot of them 186 00:09:02,400 --> 00:09:06,960 now pretty annoyed about how the weekends panned out for him. 187 00:09:07,440 --> 00:09:10,800 So, so you, you speak to Labour MPs and you're left with the 188 00:09:10,800 --> 00:09:13,840 impression of crikey, Keira's not got long left in him. 189 00:09:14,120 --> 00:09:19,920 However, the thing that always comes back in my mind is that 190 00:09:19,920 --> 00:09:24,400 Labour aren't quite as good at decapitating the party. 191 00:09:24,640 --> 00:09:26,280 Procedures not there, it's not as easy. 192 00:09:26,280 --> 00:09:28,800 Yeah, and as the Tories were, you know, everyone always 193 00:09:28,800 --> 00:09:31,520 thought, you know, for years we've had one to show a million 194 00:09:31,520 --> 00:09:33,800 times, David Miliband. And everyone always talks about 195 00:09:33,800 --> 00:09:34,800 David Miliband. Oh, God. 196 00:09:34,800 --> 00:09:36,200 You know, the the leader that could have been. 197 00:09:36,280 --> 00:09:39,040 Well, he bowled it twice in 2008. 198 00:09:39,040 --> 00:09:41,320 He didn't go for it. And so in the back of my mind, I 199 00:09:41,320 --> 00:09:43,800 keep on thinking, yeah, you know, you talked to all these 200 00:09:43,800 --> 00:09:45,320 MPs. You think Keir Simon hasn't got 201 00:09:45,440 --> 00:09:48,000 long for it. However, you need someone to 202 00:09:48,000 --> 00:09:51,480 wield the knife. Kitty, I guess timing is really 203 00:09:51,480 --> 00:09:53,840 bad for Keir Starmer, isn't it? Because the May elections are in 204 00:09:53,840 --> 00:09:54,920 May. We are now at the end of 205 00:09:54,920 --> 00:09:56,640 January. He's only got a couple of months 206 00:09:57,040 --> 00:10:00,000 for people to feel any improvement or for growth to 207 00:10:00,000 --> 00:10:02,720 actually manifest itself, et cetera, et cetera. 208 00:10:03,120 --> 00:10:05,840 But I but I'm also looking at the polls and I noticed that 209 00:10:05,840 --> 00:10:09,440 there's been a slight uptick in Labour's favour, A slight down 210 00:10:09,440 --> 00:10:12,080 tick, if you like, for reform or for the Greens. 211 00:10:12,080 --> 00:10:14,720 And then we're going to talk about peak populism if that's 212 00:10:14,720 --> 00:10:16,600 what we've reached later on in the podcast. 213 00:10:16,600 --> 00:10:20,760 But I just wonder whether maybe we're seeing the beginnings of 214 00:10:20,760 --> 00:10:25,400 some kind of partial recovery. And if they pitch it right ahead 215 00:10:25,400 --> 00:10:29,760 of the May elections, could they game their failure and turn it 216 00:10:29,760 --> 00:10:32,680 into a success in the way that Corbyn did, you know, in the 217 00:10:32,680 --> 00:10:34,840 2017 general election, which he lost. 218 00:10:35,040 --> 00:10:38,120 But for him, it was a kind of great personal victory, Kitty. 219 00:10:40,480 --> 00:10:41,640 There's quite a lot in that question. 220 00:10:42,360 --> 00:10:44,480 Sorry, yeah, it was a so it was a long one. 221 00:10:44,600 --> 00:10:47,840 I keep them short of 1. I get paid by I get paid by the 222 00:10:47,840 --> 00:10:50,080 word per question. That's why it's a new. 223 00:10:50,160 --> 00:10:54,560 Thing that's a great gig that's a great gig I think several 224 00:10:54,560 --> 00:10:59,400 things going on one is yes the polls are moving around a little 225 00:10:59,400 --> 00:11:05,200 bit at the moment and strategies both in Labour and the Tories 226 00:11:05,200 --> 00:11:08,200 I've spoken to think that the reform lead is very very soft 227 00:11:08,200 --> 00:11:11,440 and that actually we've reached the high watermark of where 228 00:11:11,440 --> 00:11:14,200 reform we're going to get to and the only way is downhill from 229 00:11:14,200 --> 00:11:16,480 here. I mean of course the only that 230 00:11:16,480 --> 00:11:20,120 really matters is is in May is where it's the first proper data 231 00:11:20,120 --> 00:11:24,200 point we've got of what people are really thinking about 232 00:11:24,200 --> 00:11:27,560 reform. And but equally May is a chance 233 00:11:27,560 --> 00:11:29,120 for people to give the government a kicking. 234 00:11:29,400 --> 00:11:32,200 That is why the kind of Gordon and Dent thing is so interesting 235 00:11:32,200 --> 00:11:34,680 is that it would have provided another data point. 236 00:11:35,360 --> 00:11:41,480 But also Andy Burnham polls above the the Labour national 237 00:11:41,480 --> 00:11:44,240 average and therefore probably probably could have probably the 238 00:11:44,240 --> 00:11:46,080 only person who could have held onto that seat for them. 239 00:11:46,600 --> 00:11:49,760 And I've forgotten the rest of your questions, Matt, but I 240 00:11:49,760 --> 00:11:51,600 think you kind of. You've why don't we just say 241 00:11:51,600 --> 00:11:52,840 you've? That was a brilliant answer, 242 00:11:52,840 --> 00:11:54,120 Kitty. I've forgotten the rest of my 243 00:11:54,120 --> 00:11:55,960 questions too, so let me move on to Liam. 244 00:11:56,600 --> 00:11:59,440 Liam, do you think that Andy Burnham could have saved Labour 245 00:11:59,640 --> 00:12:01,880 in the May elections had he been elected leader? 246 00:12:02,200 --> 00:12:05,920 I mean MP first and then leader. Yeah, you were jumping ahead of 247 00:12:06,200 --> 00:12:07,880 yourself there, but I think that's, we all know that's where 248 00:12:07,880 --> 00:12:10,760 it was going. Yeah, I, I've written a column 249 00:12:10,760 --> 00:12:12,280 on this. I've my, my sort of colours are 250 00:12:12,280 --> 00:12:14,600 nailed to the mast. I, I do believe from, from my 251 00:12:14,600 --> 00:12:17,240 experience of, of speaking to people and and the general kind 252 00:12:17,240 --> 00:12:20,280 of consensus I've gathered that Ivandy Burnham, as Kitty says, 253 00:12:20,280 --> 00:12:23,200 if he had stood in Gordon and Denton, I think he's probably 254 00:12:23,200 --> 00:12:25,200 the only candidate who could win that for Labour. 255 00:12:25,760 --> 00:12:28,360 You look at the, the individual polling of Labour with or 256 00:12:28,360 --> 00:12:31,040 without Burnham up against reform in that, in that by 257 00:12:31,040 --> 00:12:33,960 election and it's, it's, it's about four or five percentage 258 00:12:33,960 --> 00:12:37,840 points different either way. So I feel sorry for who whoever 259 00:12:37,840 --> 00:12:39,240 Labour selected as their candidate. 260 00:12:39,240 --> 00:12:41,120 I think that they're in a really difficult position because I 261 00:12:41,120 --> 00:12:44,200 think if you were in Gorton and Denton, you have you, you were 262 00:12:44,240 --> 00:12:47,800 hoping to vote for the very successful mayor of the city 263 00:12:47,800 --> 00:12:50,360 region that you live in. Who, who, I think across the 264 00:12:50,360 --> 00:12:53,080 board has to be regarded as the most successful city region 265 00:12:53,080 --> 00:12:56,000 mayor that we've probably seen in the, the, the devolved world, 266 00:12:56,000 --> 00:12:57,400 that devolved country that we live in. 267 00:12:57,680 --> 00:13:00,200 And then you've suddenly seen that his party have blocked him 268 00:13:00,200 --> 00:13:02,120 from standing. I think that people who were 269 00:13:02,120 --> 00:13:04,800 even on the fence about Labour would go the other way and that 270 00:13:04,800 --> 00:13:07,360 people who are, who are already going the other way will be even 271 00:13:07,360 --> 00:13:08,880 more entrenched in their vote for reform. 272 00:13:08,880 --> 00:13:11,280 So I think that Burnham could have, could have, could 273 00:13:11,280 --> 00:13:12,920 definitely have won that for Labour and that would have been 274 00:13:12,920 --> 00:13:15,160 a massive boost for Starmer as well. 275 00:13:15,680 --> 00:13:18,720 I think it I think this only hastens his his dissent really. 276 00:13:18,760 --> 00:13:21,240 Right, Paul, do you think that if he had been elected, if if, 277 00:13:21,240 --> 00:13:23,600 if, if had he been elected and got the Benton, do you think he 278 00:13:23,600 --> 00:13:26,320 could have turned things round naturally actually had he then 279 00:13:26,320 --> 00:13:27,600 been elected leader of the party? 280 00:13:27,960 --> 00:13:31,960 I, I don't know, I think Liam will have a better still on this 281 00:13:32,080 --> 00:13:35,680 than me, but I think the jury is still out on Andy Burnham. 282 00:13:35,880 --> 00:13:39,520 Like he's benefited massively by being the King of the North, not 283 00:13:39,520 --> 00:13:41,800 just because he gets to be the king of the North and bowl about 284 00:13:41,800 --> 00:13:43,560 Manchester and looking great. Could he be the king of 285 00:13:43,560 --> 00:13:45,640 everywhere? Well, and when you're the king 286 00:13:45,640 --> 00:13:48,240 of the North, you're not facing questions about everywhere else. 287 00:13:48,240 --> 00:13:50,760 You're not. You're not daily or at least 288 00:13:50,760 --> 00:13:54,200 weekly, put on a platform where you have to answer for yourself. 289 00:13:54,200 --> 00:13:55,560 We have to answer difficult questions. 290 00:13:55,640 --> 00:13:58,000 He's not out doing morning rounds and, and, you know, being 291 00:13:58,000 --> 00:14:01,760 made to look a mug on, on, on the Today programme or, or on 292 00:14:01,760 --> 00:14:05,400 Channel 4 News or anywhere. So he's benefited by, not by not 293 00:14:05,400 --> 00:14:07,880 having that national presence, really. 294 00:14:08,440 --> 00:14:12,200 Kitty, have we projected things onto Andy Burnham, you know, or 295 00:14:12,200 --> 00:14:14,440 some people not not us necessarily, but have people 296 00:14:14,440 --> 00:14:17,160 projected stuff onto Andy Burnham that Andy Burnham 297 00:14:17,160 --> 00:14:19,320 doesn't have? Is he like a sort of Christmas 298 00:14:19,320 --> 00:14:22,960 wish list of political talent that we will never see whether 299 00:14:22,960 --> 00:14:24,680 it actually, you know, holds up under fire? 300 00:14:25,600 --> 00:14:28,120 Yes, yes, I think so. And also this weekend's done 301 00:14:28,120 --> 00:14:31,800 nothing to, to do to dissipate that impression, has it? 302 00:14:31,800 --> 00:14:35,360 He's now a martyr in the eyes of, you know, of the Labour left 303 00:14:35,360 --> 00:14:37,920 and, and will continue to be so until he gets his chance to 304 00:14:37,920 --> 00:14:40,560 shine. I mean, the other thing is, you 305 00:14:40,560 --> 00:14:42,840 know, Andy Burnham's been on quite a political journey. 306 00:14:43,240 --> 00:14:46,640 You know, I looked up some of his contributions to a Treasury 307 00:14:46,640 --> 00:14:49,160 Select Committee the other day, you know, because I have nothing 308 00:14:49,160 --> 00:14:53,280 better to do. And he he was, he sounded almost 309 00:14:53,280 --> 00:14:57,120 George Osborne like in his, in his sort of appreciation for, 310 00:14:57,120 --> 00:15:00,800 for sound fiscal prudence to, you know, to quote Gordon Brown. 311 00:15:01,160 --> 00:15:05,360 And, and it's extraordinary that now, you know, now he's talking 312 00:15:05,360 --> 00:15:07,360 about not being in hop to the bond market. 313 00:15:07,800 --> 00:15:10,680 I mean, the idea that this guy could come in and basically 314 00:15:10,680 --> 00:15:16,120 borrow how much he wants to build more council houses and, 315 00:15:16,120 --> 00:15:17,520 and the bond markets wouldn't react. 316 00:15:17,520 --> 00:15:20,400 It's just nonsense. So in fact, the bond markets 317 00:15:20,400 --> 00:15:23,520 were even reacting to the idea that he might get Gorton and 318 00:15:23,520 --> 00:15:26,760 Denton. So so, you know, and this is 319 00:15:26,760 --> 00:15:29,480 before we've even got onto the idea that he's going to stand up 320 00:15:29,480 --> 00:15:33,560 next to Donald Trump and, you know, be the saviour of the left 321 00:15:33,560 --> 00:15:36,120 and sort of, you know, do have their Love Actually moment or 322 00:15:36,120 --> 00:15:37,640 whatever people trying to project onto him. 323 00:15:37,640 --> 00:15:39,000 It's just, I think it's just nonsense. 324 00:15:39,000 --> 00:15:41,600 Would he have picked up Donald Trump's papers from the trade 325 00:15:41,600 --> 00:15:43,120 deal that Trump dropped to the ground? 326 00:15:43,880 --> 00:15:46,400 That's a key question. You know, Keir Starmer picked 327 00:15:46,400 --> 00:15:49,000 them up, you know, like the good supplicant that he is. 328 00:15:49,000 --> 00:15:50,480 And would Andy Burnham have done that? 329 00:15:50,520 --> 00:15:52,440 I don't know. Liam, let me ask you, just a 330 00:15:52,440 --> 00:15:53,760 quick one. I'm just fascinated by this. 331 00:15:53,880 --> 00:15:57,840 So Andy Burnham has been mulling this idea, you know, of standing 332 00:15:57,840 --> 00:15:59,600 in this, you know, in the by election that's coming up. 333 00:15:59,840 --> 00:16:02,640 He must have known that there was a very good chance that Keir 334 00:16:02,640 --> 00:16:04,600 Starmer would and his people would block him. 335 00:16:05,360 --> 00:16:07,960 So why did he do it anyway? Is it because he once martyrdom 336 00:16:07,960 --> 00:16:10,280 status or because he thought there was a chance that they 337 00:16:10,280 --> 00:16:12,240 wouldn't block him? What's going on in his mind? 338 00:16:13,240 --> 00:16:15,880 I mean, you're right, you know, you would assess, assess that 339 00:16:15,880 --> 00:16:18,240 he's done his homework and realised the make up of that NEC 340 00:16:18,240 --> 00:16:19,840 was, was absolutely not in his favour. 341 00:16:19,840 --> 00:16:22,040 Including the Prime Minister himself, of course, who I was a 342 00:16:22,040 --> 00:16:25,280 little bit surprised to see cast a vote in a what many would see 343 00:16:25,280 --> 00:16:28,680 as a slightly petty move. But I think that it's both 344 00:16:28,680 --> 00:16:30,160 things. I think that he did think that 345 00:16:30,160 --> 00:16:33,480 there was possibly a chance that he would appeal to hear 346 00:16:33,480 --> 00:16:36,080 Starmer's vulnerabilities and that that Starmer would look and 347 00:16:36,080 --> 00:16:39,720 say, look, I'm going to look incredibly weak if I block Andy 348 00:16:39,720 --> 00:16:41,240 Burnham from coming in. I'm going to look like I'm 349 00:16:41,240 --> 00:16:43,280 scared of people within my own party. 350 00:16:43,280 --> 00:16:45,800 And, and it will, I will write the opposition's attacks for 351 00:16:45,800 --> 00:16:47,800 themselves for the next few months, which I think is what 352 00:16:47,800 --> 00:16:50,040 has happened. And I think Burnham thought I'll 353 00:16:50,040 --> 00:16:53,440 take my chances on that and, and the net result if they block me 354 00:16:53,960 --> 00:16:55,680 and I get to go back to my successful job as Great 355 00:16:55,680 --> 00:16:57,240 Manchester mayor. OK, a few people might have 356 00:16:57,240 --> 00:16:59,240 their noses put out a joint, but I think most people in Great 357 00:16:59,240 --> 00:17:00,600 Manchester will welcome him back. 358 00:17:00,760 --> 00:17:02,600 And he gets to look like a martyr. 359 00:17:02,880 --> 00:17:06,200 And I think only probably, Yeah. Hastings, the demise of Keir 360 00:17:06,200 --> 00:17:08,800 Starmer. So I think, yeah. 361 00:17:08,839 --> 00:17:10,760 But Burnham had it win, win. Starmer had it lose, lose. 362 00:17:10,760 --> 00:17:13,359 And Starmer really lost. Liam, I've got a question for 363 00:17:13,359 --> 00:17:16,760 you. So a hefty chunk of Keir's 364 00:17:16,760 --> 00:17:22,920 argument was, look, it would cause a mayoral by election that 365 00:17:22,920 --> 00:17:25,800 cost four and a half, £1,000,000 of taxpayer money. 366 00:17:25,960 --> 00:17:29,600 That is almost offensive for us to ask taxpayers to dip into 367 00:17:29,600 --> 00:17:31,320 their pocket. What are the people of Great 368 00:17:31,320 --> 00:17:34,320 Manchester think though? Do they think, yeah, thanks Keir 369 00:17:34,320 --> 00:17:36,160 for saving us Four and a half, £1,000,000 I think. 370 00:17:36,160 --> 00:17:37,520 No, no, no, this is just poppycock. 371 00:17:38,880 --> 00:17:41,320 I don't, I mean it's a fairpoint, but I don't, I mean I 372 00:17:41,320 --> 00:17:43,600 think everyone sees through it. Nobody believes that's the 373 00:17:43,600 --> 00:17:46,040 reason why they stopped it. Nobody thinks that if it if it 374 00:17:46,040 --> 00:17:49,320 was in their advantage that they wouldn't happily fold in that 375 00:17:49,320 --> 00:17:51,360 £5,000,000. There's no thanks to Kier 376 00:17:51,360 --> 00:17:52,920 posters going up all over the place. 377 00:17:52,920 --> 00:17:54,560 No, no, cheers for that 5 minutes. 378 00:17:55,080 --> 00:17:58,200 I've seen loads by the way. This is how we're going to spend 379 00:17:58,200 --> 00:17:59,120 it. You know, I just don't think 380 00:17:59,120 --> 00:18:00,560 anyone buys it. That's the problem. 381 00:18:00,800 --> 00:18:02,760 And also, I think you could, you could make the argument that 382 00:18:02,760 --> 00:18:05,320 they can fold it in with local elections, they can work it 383 00:18:05,320 --> 00:18:08,360 around and, and ultimately people won't know where that 5 384 00:18:08,360 --> 00:18:09,720 million has gone. So I don't think that really 385 00:18:09,720 --> 00:18:11,520 watches. I think what they do see in 386 00:18:11,520 --> 00:18:13,120 Great Manchester is the threat of reform. 387 00:18:13,360 --> 00:18:15,120 And I think that they, they will have thought that reform, we're 388 00:18:15,120 --> 00:18:16,240 going to now win this by election. 389 00:18:16,240 --> 00:18:18,320 And Andy Burnham was the only person who who could beat them. 390 00:18:18,600 --> 00:18:20,320 I, I, I, you know, I've got family who live in Great 391 00:18:20,320 --> 00:18:22,920 Manchester. They're very, very fond of him 392 00:18:22,920 --> 00:18:24,040 as a mayor. They think he's done great 393 00:18:24,040 --> 00:18:26,440 things on transport. But it's not like he's just 394 00:18:26,440 --> 00:18:28,760 started. He's, he's into his third term, 395 00:18:29,200 --> 00:18:31,600 so I don't think he could, he could be accused of abandoning 396 00:18:31,600 --> 00:18:34,280 Grey Manchester. He's, he's done 8-9 years and he 397 00:18:34,280 --> 00:18:36,840 would be set leaving them in a very decent position. 398 00:18:37,120 --> 00:18:39,560 So I, I, I, I don't think that argument works either. 399 00:18:39,560 --> 00:18:41,680 I think they just, they, you know, Starmer and Co knew that 400 00:18:41,680 --> 00:18:43,520 he was a massive threat. Katie, I just want to get back 401 00:18:43,520 --> 00:18:45,800 to this point because I don't think any of you really answer 402 00:18:45,800 --> 00:18:49,200 the question. Is there any result in May other 403 00:18:49,200 --> 00:18:51,760 than victory, which is highly unlikely, that saves Keir 404 00:18:51,760 --> 00:18:53,800 Starmer's skin? I mean, there is a world in 405 00:18:53,800 --> 00:18:57,800 which Keir Starmer serves out the year as Prime Minister 406 00:18:57,800 --> 00:19:02,920 because it's so difficult to get rid of a sitting Labour leader. 407 00:19:03,160 --> 00:19:08,160 You need 80 Labour MPs to to gather behind a challenger. 408 00:19:08,440 --> 00:19:11,440 And then even if there's a challenge Keir Starmer could 409 00:19:12,760 --> 00:19:15,680 could win, win any election. And that there is a world in 410 00:19:15,680 --> 00:19:18,320 which Labour left doesn't get itself, doesn't get his act 411 00:19:18,320 --> 00:19:21,080 together, doesn't come up with a verbal candidate to to where 412 00:19:21,080 --> 00:19:27,560 streeting and therefore Keir beats Wes in a in a leadership 413 00:19:27,560 --> 00:19:28,840 contest. I mean, I think that's quite 414 00:19:28,840 --> 00:19:32,960 unlikely if you ever got to that point, because I think even even 415 00:19:32,960 --> 00:19:37,240 those in the party who support care and who are, you know, even 416 00:19:37,240 --> 00:19:39,280 vaguely grateful that he won them their seats. 417 00:19:39,280 --> 00:19:41,240 Think that take one look at his poll ratings. 418 00:19:41,240 --> 00:19:43,920 I think actually this guy is not going to lead into the next 419 00:19:43,920 --> 00:19:47,800 general election And and we need to change, change front man. 420 00:19:48,200 --> 00:19:50,960 And if that's if that's Wes, then OK, maybe we'll grit our 421 00:19:50,960 --> 00:19:53,960 teeth And and even if we don't like his politics, particularly, 422 00:19:53,960 --> 00:19:57,440 although Wes has tacked the left little bit in recent months, 423 00:19:58,000 --> 00:20:00,200 even if we don't like his politics, we will, we will, we 424 00:20:00,200 --> 00:20:02,000 will grit our teeth and get on with it because we think that 425 00:20:02,000 --> 00:20:06,080 words perhaps is the is the better chance of of, you know, 426 00:20:06,120 --> 00:20:10,600 seeing off reform of seeing off the Greens and the Lib Dems. 427 00:20:11,520 --> 00:20:14,280 Liam, what about you? I mean, I think that Nigel 428 00:20:14,280 --> 00:20:18,000 Farage, Mr. Mr. Farage once said that he fears Angela Rayner more 429 00:20:18,000 --> 00:20:20,080 than any other candidate. I'm not sure whether he was just 430 00:20:20,400 --> 00:20:22,760 playing with us, but she's got the populist touch. 431 00:20:22,760 --> 00:20:26,280 You know, she's she's a great communicator who is most likely 432 00:20:26,800 --> 00:20:29,440 in your book and in it's early days and, you know, things 433 00:20:29,440 --> 00:20:31,640 always moving. But after the Burnham thing, 434 00:20:31,760 --> 00:20:35,840 who's most likely to be the heir to Kier and who's most likely to 435 00:20:35,840 --> 00:20:40,320 be Nigel Farage? Well, I, I agree with with, with 436 00:20:40,320 --> 00:20:44,080 Kissy that when you take Burnham out of the equation, it's a, 437 00:20:44,160 --> 00:20:46,520 it's a bit of a mess. And I was speaking to MPs in 438 00:20:46,520 --> 00:20:50,080 Merseyside after the Burnham situation and they said that it 439 00:20:50,080 --> 00:20:54,280 could well be Angela versus Wes. But of course Angela is, has 440 00:20:54,280 --> 00:20:57,360 this very recent baggage. And however, whatever you think 441 00:20:57,360 --> 00:20:59,360 of it, whether you think it was a little bit unfair that she 442 00:20:59,360 --> 00:21:02,440 lost her job over it, it's just red meat to the, to the right 443 00:21:02,440 --> 00:21:05,080 wing newspapers who would just go after her relentlessly. 444 00:21:05,080 --> 00:21:07,320 And I think it's kind of, it's maybe a little bit unfeasible 445 00:21:07,320 --> 00:21:10,160 that someone who resigned as a Deputy Prime Minister over a 446 00:21:10,160 --> 00:21:12,960 situation like that so recently is then going to stand for 447 00:21:12,960 --> 00:21:15,560 leader. I do think that without that she 448 00:21:15,560 --> 00:21:17,400 would be the the obvious candidate. 449 00:21:18,120 --> 00:21:22,200 I can't against where Streeting, who is obviously that certainly 450 00:21:22,240 --> 00:21:23,680 we know about his leadership ambition. 451 00:21:24,000 --> 00:21:26,960 I personally don't think that Streeting is the man to beat 452 00:21:26,960 --> 00:21:28,560 reform. I think he's he's way too 453 00:21:28,560 --> 00:21:31,920 connected to the the the current administration. 454 00:21:31,920 --> 00:21:34,360 I think he's he he won't be seen as the the thing that Andy 455 00:21:34,360 --> 00:21:36,320 Burnham's got on his side. I know I keep going back to him 456 00:21:36,320 --> 00:21:39,520 is that he's not seen as this. I know, I know it's interesting 457 00:21:39,520 --> 00:21:41,760 because he certainly very much was part of this kind of 458 00:21:42,320 --> 00:21:45,080 government elite, you know, he was cabinet secretary and and 459 00:21:45,080 --> 00:21:46,760 things like that. But since he's moved out of 460 00:21:46,760 --> 00:21:49,000 Westminster to the great Manchester area, he's seen as 461 00:21:49,000 --> 00:21:51,600 kind of outside the bubble looking in, talking about the 462 00:21:51,600 --> 00:21:54,160 things that are wrong with the country in the way that he can. 463 00:21:54,600 --> 00:21:56,560 Now, he won't be able to do that, of course, back in 464 00:21:56,560 --> 00:21:58,400 Parliament, but from the outside he can. 465 00:21:58,680 --> 00:22:00,680 So I think it's, yeah, Angela and Wes. 466 00:22:00,720 --> 00:22:02,040 I can't really think of anyone else. 467 00:22:02,040 --> 00:22:04,520 I was surprised to hear Ed Miliband fancying another Tilt 468 00:22:04,520 --> 00:22:06,120 tattoo. It's a bit of a bit of a retro 469 00:22:06,120 --> 00:22:07,960 throwback, but I can't see that myself. 470 00:22:08,840 --> 00:22:10,960 Kitty, I've got a question for both of you actually on this 471 00:22:10,960 --> 00:22:14,480 one, because this you make a really good point there about 472 00:22:14,720 --> 00:22:17,400 where's, you know, being from the same wing of the party and 473 00:22:17,520 --> 00:22:20,960 he's going to be seen as too linked to care to to whatever 474 00:22:20,960 --> 00:22:22,800 people. But then when it comes to 475 00:22:22,800 --> 00:22:25,200 reform, there's a completely different argument because you 476 00:22:25,200 --> 00:22:29,800 look at the main, the big faces now that are popping up all over 477 00:22:29,800 --> 00:22:34,200 reform and it's former members of Boris Johnson's government. 478 00:22:34,320 --> 00:22:36,520 And you've got 2 arguments here, which are, which are sort of 479 00:22:36,520 --> 00:22:39,600 going head to head where you're like, well, if the biggest, if 480 00:22:39,600 --> 00:22:42,400 the biggest challenge is reform and yet the biggest faces in 481 00:22:42,400 --> 00:22:44,520 reform are people from Boris Johnson's government. 482 00:22:44,640 --> 00:22:47,360 So people either have it in their head that no, they're 2 483 00:22:47,360 --> 00:22:50,360 links so I can't vote for them. Or actually, the general public 484 00:22:50,360 --> 00:22:53,640 just isn't as quite politically savvy and don't really see the 485 00:22:53,640 --> 00:22:56,680 inner machinations that all of us see, so I don't. 486 00:22:56,680 --> 00:22:58,400 I'm interested in a pair of you, how you think. 487 00:22:58,400 --> 00:23:00,320 It's a really long question by the way, sorry, but. 488 00:23:00,760 --> 00:23:02,560 There was only one point. That was longer than you said it 489 00:23:02,600 --> 00:23:03,400 was. Longer than mine. 490 00:23:03,400 --> 00:23:05,200 I timed it. It was like 2 1/2 minutes. 491 00:23:05,200 --> 00:23:07,560 OK. If if you can hear a question 492 00:23:07,560 --> 00:23:12,960 that would do, please answer Liam. 111 response I would say 493 00:23:12,960 --> 00:23:15,000 to that, which is that no, I mean, I agree. 494 00:23:15,000 --> 00:23:18,840 I think that the, the influx of, of Tories from the sort of 495 00:23:19,120 --> 00:23:21,400 particularly the chaotic final years of, of their 496 00:23:21,400 --> 00:23:24,760 administrations is, is becoming a mistake and a problem for 497 00:23:24,760 --> 00:23:26,360 reform. I think it's very hard for you 498 00:23:26,360 --> 00:23:29,720 to continue to market yourselves as the kind of insurgents coming 499 00:23:29,720 --> 00:23:31,560 from the outside the establishment, even though we 500 00:23:31,560 --> 00:23:34,280 all know that's nonsense anyway. But it is something they've 501 00:23:34,280 --> 00:23:37,600 successfully branded themselves as if you have, you know, you 502 00:23:37,600 --> 00:23:40,840 are truck full of cabinet ministers who were part of the 503 00:23:40,840 --> 00:23:43,440 Tory administrations that left the country in such a poor 504 00:23:43,440 --> 00:23:45,880 state. I think I'm finding it it's sort 505 00:23:45,880 --> 00:23:48,040 of continual. You know, the Spider man meme 506 00:23:48,040 --> 00:23:49,400 where everyone's looking at each other. 507 00:23:49,880 --> 00:23:52,160 It's like, well, hold on. I keep saying Robert Genrick 508 00:23:52,160 --> 00:23:55,040 talk about how the Tories broke Britain and Suella Bravaman 509 00:23:55,040 --> 00:23:57,000 talking about how these other parties failed. 510 00:23:57,000 --> 00:23:59,440 And it's like, I I don't know how stupid you think people are. 511 00:23:59,680 --> 00:24:02,320 Like we all know that you were prominent members of these 512 00:24:02,320 --> 00:24:03,800 governments. I don't know whether that 513 00:24:03,800 --> 00:24:05,800 translates across the board to the general public. 514 00:24:06,080 --> 00:24:07,880 So far, Reform have managed to hold that off. 515 00:24:07,880 --> 00:24:10,960 But I think the more people that they add to from, from those 516 00:24:10,960 --> 00:24:13,560 various failed administrations, the bigger problem is going to 517 00:24:13,560 --> 00:24:16,400 be for them. So have we reached peak populism 518 00:24:16,400 --> 00:24:21,680 Kitty? Hard to say. 519 00:24:22,000 --> 00:24:26,880 I mean I think, well, I think May will just be everyone 520 00:24:26,880 --> 00:24:29,560 kicking everyone or everyone kicking the government, everyone 521 00:24:29,560 --> 00:24:33,200 kicking the Tories and that and that will be the high point. 522 00:24:33,240 --> 00:24:36,360 And then I think Liam's right, people will start to take a 523 00:24:36,360 --> 00:24:40,120 closer look at Reform in the run up to the next general election. 524 00:24:40,120 --> 00:24:43,320 And I mean Reform is still trying to get Tories over. 525 00:24:43,320 --> 00:24:49,440 Not too much councillors or, you know, lower ranking ex MPs, but 526 00:24:49,680 --> 00:24:52,480 I think they still want to get as many sitting Tories as they 527 00:24:52,480 --> 00:24:54,960 possibly can just to bolster the numbers in Parliament. 528 00:24:55,680 --> 00:24:57,880 But you're but Liam's right. Like the more, the more of them 529 00:24:57,880 --> 00:24:59,920 you get, the more you look like a retirement home for failed 530 00:24:59,920 --> 00:25:03,680 Tories and the more you can't present yourself as as the kind 531 00:25:03,680 --> 00:25:07,880 of outsiders. But we've got quite a long time 532 00:25:07,880 --> 00:25:10,400 until the next election. I mean, I don't want to sound 533 00:25:10,400 --> 00:25:12,720 like a Labour Party spokesperson, but things might 534 00:25:12,720 --> 00:25:15,880 improve. In fact, what Labour's sort of 535 00:25:15,880 --> 00:25:19,240 putting their hopes on is that I think in Iraq to May is that in 536 00:25:19,240 --> 00:25:24,040 April the leaseholders reform bill gets gets enacted and 537 00:25:24,040 --> 00:25:27,040 therefore renters rights will improve. 538 00:25:27,440 --> 00:25:30,400 And they can start pointing to that if the economy starts 539 00:25:30,400 --> 00:25:32,640 improving. I mean, that's very slow. 540 00:25:32,640 --> 00:25:35,560 You know, if inflation keeps keeps coming down, people have. 541 00:25:35,560 --> 00:25:37,480 To feel it, though, don't they? I mean, you know, it's one thing 542 00:25:37,480 --> 00:25:39,080 to talk about growth numbers. You've got to actually feel it. 543 00:25:39,400 --> 00:25:41,000 Just want to ask you about something else and start with 544 00:25:41,000 --> 00:25:42,680 you, Paul. We haven't talked about Trump 545 00:25:42,680 --> 00:25:43,760 yet. I mean, Trump is such an 546 00:25:43,760 --> 00:25:47,600 extraordinary presence on the global stage that he kind of 547 00:25:47,600 --> 00:25:49,720 washes up on your domestic doorstep as well. 548 00:25:50,280 --> 00:25:51,960 Does Farage have a Trump problem? 549 00:25:52,120 --> 00:25:54,920 Has Kia dealt with Trump well enough to be rewarded for it by 550 00:25:54,920 --> 00:25:55,720 the voters? What do you? 551 00:25:55,720 --> 00:25:57,520 Think, I think the government certainly thinks that they've 552 00:25:57,520 --> 00:26:01,320 handled Trump very well. I I don't want to make a big 553 00:26:01,320 --> 00:26:04,200 deal of it, but I'm a pretty big deal and I was in Davos last 554 00:26:04,200 --> 00:26:05,920 week. You mixing it? 555 00:26:05,920 --> 00:26:08,040 Yeah, mixing it with the with the really is. 556 00:26:08,040 --> 00:26:09,320 Yeah, I'm a, I'm a, I'm a big. Deal. 557 00:26:09,320 --> 00:26:11,120 But why didn't we don't remember your speech? 558 00:26:11,320 --> 00:26:13,760 Did you give a speech? I did gave many speeches. 559 00:26:14,360 --> 00:26:17,040 He was after Mark Carney. They were big and beautiful. 560 00:26:17,040 --> 00:26:19,680 Because people, they remember Mark Carney's speech, but not. 561 00:26:20,160 --> 00:26:21,200 Anyway, listen there I. Buddy. 562 00:26:21,280 --> 00:26:21,920 Oh, Matt. Jesus. 563 00:26:21,920 --> 00:26:23,440 No, no. Anyway, I didn't know. 564 00:26:23,440 --> 00:26:24,680 I'm just jealous that you were there. 565 00:26:25,680 --> 00:26:28,760 But look, they Labour, the Labour Party think they handled 566 00:26:29,320 --> 00:26:33,160 Trump over last week really, really well and like speaking to 567 00:26:33,160 --> 00:26:35,320 Rachel Reeves team. But is he being rewarded for it, 568 00:26:35,320 --> 00:26:37,600 do you think, by the voters, by the in the opinion polls? 569 00:26:37,760 --> 00:26:43,600 It doesn't appear so at the at the moment and I think it is a 570 00:26:43,600 --> 00:26:49,920 common thing that prime ministers really, I mean, Kerry 571 00:26:49,920 --> 00:26:54,240 is over in China at the moment. He does really well on a foreign 572 00:26:54,240 --> 00:26:57,040 stage, looking like a world leader. 573 00:26:57,440 --> 00:26:59,520 Does he get appreciated for that at home? 574 00:26:59,680 --> 00:27:03,240 No and no, no, no prime, no Prime Minister does on the 575 00:27:03,240 --> 00:27:05,480 ground. Boris Johnson loved being in 576 00:27:05,480 --> 00:27:08,640 Ukraine. You know, David Cameron, he was 577 00:27:08,640 --> 00:27:11,760 all about Libya. But do you vote? 578 00:27:11,760 --> 00:27:14,880 Does that really ring true with the electorate, especially when 579 00:27:14,880 --> 00:27:16,560 you're in the middle of a cost of living crisis? 580 00:27:16,920 --> 00:27:19,800 I think there was killed by too much presence, the fatal 581 00:27:19,800 --> 00:27:22,080 attraction to George Bush, you know, too much presence on the 582 00:27:22,080 --> 00:27:25,560 global stage. Liam, do you think Trump helps 583 00:27:25,720 --> 00:27:29,480 Starmer and hurts Farage because of Trump's Farage? 584 00:27:29,680 --> 00:27:30,920 You know Trump and Farage's friendship. 585 00:27:31,920 --> 00:27:34,240 Yeah, I mean, well, Farage is definitely finding it more and 586 00:27:34,240 --> 00:27:36,920 more awkward. He's having to give fairly kind 587 00:27:36,920 --> 00:27:40,240 of mediocre admonishments to Trump over things like 588 00:27:40,240 --> 00:27:42,000 Greenland, which he clearly finds difficult. 589 00:27:42,000 --> 00:27:45,160 I think that, you know, we know that Trump, Trump doesn't pull 590 00:27:45,160 --> 00:27:47,640 well in the UK, so I think Labour should keep pushing that 591 00:27:47,640 --> 00:27:49,000 one. I agree with Paul. 592 00:27:49,000 --> 00:27:52,240 I think that Starmer's best, greatest successes in his time 593 00:27:52,240 --> 00:27:53,600 in office have been on the world stage. 594 00:27:53,880 --> 00:27:56,240 But I also agree with you, Matt. I just don't think it translates 595 00:27:56,240 --> 00:27:59,360 again to go back out to, you know, where I was in Saint 596 00:27:59,360 --> 00:28:01,600 Helen's the other week at a council that's been run by 597 00:28:01,600 --> 00:28:05,640 Labour since largely since 1974, that I fully expect to Labour to 598 00:28:05,640 --> 00:28:09,000 lose in May and for reform to be at least the largest party. 599 00:28:09,280 --> 00:28:10,880 No one was talking about Donald Trump. 600 00:28:10,880 --> 00:28:13,480 Everyone was talking about the cost of living, about the state 601 00:28:13,480 --> 00:28:16,280 of the town centre, about the fact that they can't afford food 602 00:28:16,280 --> 00:28:18,160 in the shops. It's it's all anyone's talking 603 00:28:18,160 --> 00:28:19,680 about. And the stuff with Trump is 604 00:28:19,680 --> 00:28:20,800 seen. I think there's a bit of a 605 00:28:20,800 --> 00:28:23,160 distraction on the side, even though, as you say, it has an 606 00:28:23,160 --> 00:28:25,680 effect on all of that. But I don't think that Starmer's 607 00:28:25,720 --> 00:28:28,880 presence on the world stage is is translating to the domestic 608 00:28:28,880 --> 00:28:30,800 agenda. Katie, the the one moment I 609 00:28:30,800 --> 00:28:33,560 thought that Reform might actually be in trouble because 610 00:28:33,560 --> 00:28:35,960 of Trump's friendship with Farage was when he made that 611 00:28:35,960 --> 00:28:38,720 comment about British troops, you know, not really getting 612 00:28:38,720 --> 00:28:40,800 involved and staying away from the front line in Afghanistan. 613 00:28:41,120 --> 00:28:44,000 I mean, then you're really, really, you know, touching a 614 00:28:44,000 --> 00:28:47,960 neuralgic nerve, you know, in the kind of in the kind of at 615 00:28:47,960 --> 00:28:50,760 the heart of the reform movement or indeed, you know, the old 616 00:28:50,760 --> 00:28:54,160 labour movement. I mean, being dissing British 617 00:28:54,160 --> 00:28:58,840 troops after 457 of them have been killed in Afghanistan and 618 00:28:58,840 --> 00:29:02,960 thousands more had life changing injuries was a really bad idea. 619 00:29:03,240 --> 00:29:06,880 And I could just see Nigel Farage squirm when that was 620 00:29:06,880 --> 00:29:08,600 being said. And there will be many, many 621 00:29:08,600 --> 00:29:11,320 more moments about that, you know, coming from Trump in the 622 00:29:11,320 --> 00:29:13,840 future, I'm sure. So, Kitty, you know, again, is 623 00:29:13,840 --> 00:29:15,880 that a problem that Farage faces? 624 00:29:16,360 --> 00:29:19,440 Or is is the populist headman so strong that it doesn't really 625 00:29:19,440 --> 00:29:22,880 matter? Well, Nigel Farage has done a 626 00:29:23,120 --> 00:29:26,560 fairly good job of distancing himself from from Trump, I think 627 00:29:26,560 --> 00:29:30,360 in the last few months and weeks. 628 00:29:31,320 --> 00:29:34,360 And I was fascinated by by what the kind of chain of events that 629 00:29:34,360 --> 00:29:36,680 led up to Trump sort of semi backing down. 630 00:29:36,680 --> 00:29:39,120 You know, he, he got up in the on the, I think it was the 631 00:29:39,120 --> 00:29:42,800 Monday morning and said, oh, I didn't really mean it. 632 00:29:42,800 --> 00:29:46,040 And that was after the king and the Prime Minister had basically 633 00:29:46,640 --> 00:29:48,960 the king had sent a note over the weekend expressing his 634 00:29:48,960 --> 00:29:51,440 displeasure and, and Sir Keir Stamer spoke to him on the 635 00:29:51,440 --> 00:29:54,760 Sunday. And I think that showed the kind 636 00:29:54,760 --> 00:29:56,960 of you wonder which had the most impact. 637 00:29:56,960 --> 00:29:59,560 I wonder whether it was the King's note that had had more of 638 00:29:59,560 --> 00:30:03,440 an impact perhaps than Starmer kind of lecturing, lecturing 639 00:30:03,440 --> 00:30:07,800 Trump on the phone. But I mean, aren't we talking 640 00:30:07,800 --> 00:30:10,440 about a life post Trump though? Because by the time the general 641 00:30:10,440 --> 00:30:12,960 election comes round, we're going to be looking at who's 642 00:30:12,960 --> 00:30:14,240 next, aren't we? We're going to be looking at is 643 00:30:14,240 --> 00:30:17,760 it JD Vance, Is it Marco Rubio? Who is who is the person in in 644 00:30:17,760 --> 00:30:18,800 the White House? Democrat? 645 00:30:18,880 --> 00:30:21,160 Do you remember the Democrat? Yeah, I'd like to say. 646 00:30:21,400 --> 00:30:22,880 No, I'd like to say. Assuming that. 647 00:30:23,920 --> 00:30:25,040 Biden. Obama. 648 00:30:25,040 --> 00:30:26,800 You know Clinton. This is Channel 4. 649 00:30:26,800 --> 00:30:28,080 This is Channel 4. Absolutely. 650 00:30:28,080 --> 00:30:30,720 Of course, there might be a new West Wing. 651 00:30:30,720 --> 00:30:33,280 Don't start profiling us, Kitty. Like that we're. 652 00:30:33,600 --> 00:30:37,000 Slavishly neutral. Let me, let me finish on, let me 653 00:30:37,000 --> 00:30:38,520 finish on. A very quick question to all of 654 00:30:38,520 --> 00:30:46,080 you is, you know, again, if it comes to push comes to shove, is 655 00:30:46,080 --> 00:30:49,320 the fact that the reformers absorbing all these Tories, even 656 00:30:49,320 --> 00:30:52,760 if they're husbands, does it make them more clubbable? 657 00:30:52,800 --> 00:30:55,360 You know, to people in the middle who still find the idea 658 00:30:55,360 --> 00:30:59,000 of voting for reform a little bit, you know, out, you know, 659 00:30:59,000 --> 00:31:02,480 off of Broadway that they'll vote for them because of all 660 00:31:02,480 --> 00:31:05,760 these former Tories there. And therefore, in a contest 661 00:31:05,760 --> 00:31:10,240 between Reform and Labour, does Reform win it quickly? 662 00:31:10,240 --> 00:31:15,400 First you, Liam, then Kitty, then Paul I think. 663 00:31:16,840 --> 00:31:20,400 The more Tories that enter, particularly from who were a 664 00:31:20,400 --> 00:31:24,720 Tory government that was so roundly beaten for its failures 665 00:31:24,720 --> 00:31:27,560 over 14 years, becomes a bigger problem for reform. 666 00:31:27,560 --> 00:31:29,600 I think Zia Youssef has actually said they're going to stop, 667 00:31:29,920 --> 00:31:31,960 they're going to have a deadline for when they stop inviting them 668 00:31:31,960 --> 00:31:33,480 all in, so they're getting their applications in. 669 00:31:33,640 --> 00:31:36,800 You can no longer sell us any second hand clothes after this 670 00:31:36,800 --> 00:31:39,080 day. We will not accept your pre 671 00:31:39,080 --> 00:31:41,800 loved items in this shop. OK, what about you? 672 00:31:41,800 --> 00:31:44,160 Kitty, I mean so, so and I just think that that will become a 673 00:31:44,160 --> 00:31:46,000 bigger problem for them the more they come in here. 674 00:31:46,160 --> 00:31:47,480 All right, Kitty, what do you think? 675 00:31:48,400 --> 00:31:51,320 Is Reform unacceptable still for so many people that they even if 676 00:31:51,320 --> 00:31:53,160 they don't like the Labour Party, they can't quite bring 677 00:31:53,160 --> 00:31:55,440 themselves to see Nigel Farage and #10? 678 00:31:56,760 --> 00:31:58,920 I think actually it's the economics that's the problem, is 679 00:31:58,920 --> 00:32:02,720 that they're so all over the place and they're slightly hazy 680 00:32:02,720 --> 00:32:04,800 economic plans. It's like you never quite know 681 00:32:04,800 --> 00:32:07,000 which way they're going to jump. Are they? 682 00:32:07,000 --> 00:32:10,720 Are they, you know, I, I for ages thought that Nigel Farage 683 00:32:10,720 --> 00:32:12,400 was a Thatcherite. And then you look at some of 684 00:32:12,400 --> 00:32:16,560 these state control of, of coal industry and you think, hang on 685 00:32:16,560 --> 00:32:19,800 a second, this isn't very Thatcherite and and welfare 686 00:32:19,800 --> 00:32:23,120 payments as well, and which is, is an odd place to land. 687 00:32:23,120 --> 00:32:27,040 I thought for, for reform. So I think we need to drill down 688 00:32:27,040 --> 00:32:29,480 and more into what they actually think. 689 00:32:29,480 --> 00:32:32,080 But I think actually people are projecting on to reform at the 690 00:32:32,080 --> 00:32:34,000 moment the same way that perhaps they're projecting onto Andy 691 00:32:34,000 --> 00:32:36,440 Burnham. You know, these are outsiders 692 00:32:36,440 --> 00:32:39,520 and that they will come in and they will do what I think I want 693 00:32:39,520 --> 00:32:42,160 them to do rather than necessarily what they what 694 00:32:42,160 --> 00:32:44,680 they're saying. So, Paul, maybe Keir Starmer's 695 00:32:44,680 --> 00:32:47,520 the pot plant of British politics, sort of maligned, 696 00:32:47,520 --> 00:32:50,680 ignored, not watered enough, you know, written off, and suddenly 697 00:32:50,800 --> 00:32:53,960 he's still there. Have you just got a call or a 698 00:32:53,960 --> 00:32:57,880 text from Morgan McSweeney? I'm sure that Morgan would use 699 00:32:57,880 --> 00:33:00,040 slightly more flattering language about his boss, but 700 00:33:01,600 --> 00:33:02,920 you're writing him off too, right? 701 00:33:03,840 --> 00:33:06,520 Hey, Stammer. Versus Stammer versus Farage, 702 00:33:06,560 --> 00:33:08,400 who becomes Prime Minister. I'm not right, I know. 703 00:33:08,400 --> 00:33:11,320 It's a parliamentary system. I'm not writing him off that 704 00:33:11,320 --> 00:33:13,760 fence. His, his own and many of his own 705 00:33:13,760 --> 00:33:16,800 MPs have already written him off. 706 00:33:17,480 --> 00:33:19,520 I think ultimately what it what it comes down to. 707 00:33:19,760 --> 00:33:23,760 Back to what Kitty was saying earlier on, the mechanism is far 708 00:33:23,760 --> 00:33:27,440 from simple and what we know from history, the Labour 709 00:33:27,440 --> 00:33:31,440 backbenches and the people who would be challenging are not 710 00:33:31,440 --> 00:33:34,160 happy or not overly keen on wielding the knife. 711 00:33:34,160 --> 00:33:37,000 And those two things may be the thing that makes Keir Starmer 712 00:33:37,080 --> 00:33:38,600 stay in post for as long as possible. 713 00:33:38,600 --> 00:33:40,440 I've just had a brilliant idea turn the podcast on. 714 00:33:40,440 --> 00:33:43,240 I want from each of you a single word that sums up the last, you 715 00:33:43,240 --> 00:33:44,680 know, year and a half of Labour government. 716 00:33:44,680 --> 00:33:48,160 One word ball, one word. Disappointing, disappointing 717 00:33:48,160 --> 00:33:53,080 Kitty. Phonetically disappointing. 2 718 00:33:53,080 --> 00:33:54,240 words. OK, Liam. 719 00:33:55,560 --> 00:33:57,360 If it's got a dash in the middle, I think it's one word 720 00:33:57,480 --> 00:34:01,120 U-turn. OK, all right, OK, that's it. 721 00:34:01,720 --> 00:34:03,600 Very encouraging stuff from all of you. 722 00:34:03,600 --> 00:34:06,160 None of you are going to be on Morgan Mcsweeney's Christmas 723 00:34:06,160 --> 00:34:09,400 card list next year, I fear. Anyway, who knows? 724 00:34:09,920 --> 00:34:12,440 Liam Thorpe, Kitty Donaldson, Poor Mike Namara. 725 00:34:12,440 --> 00:34:13,360 Thank you very much to all of you. 726 00:34:13,360 --> 00:34:15,360 That was the forecast. Hope you enjoyed it. 727 00:34:15,400 --> 00:34:16,159 See you next time.