1 00:00:00,040 --> 00:00:02,840 Welcome to this special edition of the Forecast from Cambridge 2 00:00:02,840 --> 00:00:05,560 University. I'm very happy to say that my 3 00:00:05,560 --> 00:00:09,120 guest is Doctor James or he's the associate professor of the 4 00:00:09,120 --> 00:00:12,920 philosophy of religion at the university and a very close 5 00:00:12,920 --> 00:00:15,880 friend of the Vice President, JD Vance. 6 00:00:16,160 --> 00:00:18,400 And that's one of the reasons why he's happy to talk to us 7 00:00:18,400 --> 00:00:19,600 today. James, good to have you on the. 8 00:00:19,600 --> 00:00:22,800 Program good to be with you. JD Vance, right, your mate, he 9 00:00:22,800 --> 00:00:24,520 said. He's on the record for saying in 10 00:00:24,520 --> 00:00:28,400 2016, Trump is irresponsible. You know, he's he's not up to 11 00:00:28,400 --> 00:00:30,920 the job of being president. And then, of course, that famous 12 00:00:30,920 --> 00:00:32,960 comparison, which he's been asked about, you know, ad 13 00:00:32,960 --> 00:00:36,040 nauseam, Trump, you know, could become America's Hitler. 14 00:00:36,560 --> 00:00:40,280 Explain your friend's journey from these really searing 15 00:00:40,280 --> 00:00:44,040 criticisms of the man who's now his boss to basically, you know, 16 00:00:44,280 --> 00:00:46,040 agreeing with everything the boss says today. 17 00:00:46,120 --> 00:00:48,520 What's happened in 2016? What's his journey? 18 00:00:48,560 --> 00:00:53,600 In 2016, I think you would have struggled to find anyone in 19 00:00:53,600 --> 00:00:57,520 American public life who would have said Trump running for 20 00:00:57,520 --> 00:00:58,800 president. Great. 21 00:00:59,200 --> 00:01:01,440 He seems so. He seems so responsible. 22 00:01:01,680 --> 00:01:04,319 He is what America needs. He's rational. 23 00:01:04,440 --> 00:01:06,680 He's predictable. He's got brilliant policy ideas. 24 00:01:06,680 --> 00:01:08,800 Nobody was saying that. But not everyone was saying he 25 00:01:08,800 --> 00:01:11,880 was Adolf Hitler in the making. Listen, I mean, that's that's. 26 00:01:11,880 --> 00:01:13,200 Quite an accusation I haven't seen. 27 00:01:13,200 --> 00:01:15,320 I haven't seen any evidence that he said he is out of. 28 00:01:15,640 --> 00:01:17,040 No, no, he said that, he said on the. 29 00:01:17,160 --> 00:01:20,240 On this point of view, he saw him as a strong man, and I think 30 00:01:20,240 --> 00:01:21,560 what? He knows he could become 31 00:01:21,560 --> 00:01:23,280 America's and. Everybody's calling Hitler 32 00:01:23,280 --> 00:01:24,480 nowadays. Everybody's Hitler. 33 00:01:24,920 --> 00:01:28,160 This is not a term that this is a term that is sadly being 34 00:01:28,160 --> 00:01:30,400 cheapened by its by overuse, I think. 35 00:01:30,480 --> 00:01:34,040 Look, let me just let me just finish what is striking about 36 00:01:34,040 --> 00:01:36,560 Vance's journey. First of all, it's a journey. 37 00:01:37,360 --> 00:01:41,280 Many vast swathes of the GOP class are still where Vance was 38 00:01:41,280 --> 00:01:45,000 in 2016. Vance is a very good 39 00:01:45,040 --> 00:01:49,080 exemplification of the principle that the willingness to change 40 00:01:49,080 --> 00:01:52,080 one's mind is the. Only sure sign is the only sure. 41 00:01:52,080 --> 00:01:53,680 Sign. That one's got one right. 42 00:01:53,680 --> 00:01:55,800 It's good old Keynes. When the facts change, my mind 43 00:01:55,800 --> 00:01:56,960 changes. What do you do? 44 00:01:56,960 --> 00:01:59,360 Sometimes you say it's hypocrisy or it's 2. 45 00:01:59,360 --> 00:02:01,080 Transactions. What's about ambition? 46 00:02:01,200 --> 00:02:03,240 He. Says I think he could be this. 47 00:02:03,960 --> 00:02:07,200 Trump comes along, does the opposite, does things that JD 48 00:02:07,200 --> 00:02:10,080 had been calling for implicitly hillbilly energy all the way 49 00:02:10,080 --> 00:02:14,680 through in terms of economics, economic populism, in terms of 50 00:02:14,760 --> 00:02:17,560 energy sovereignty, deregulation, border control. 51 00:02:17,560 --> 00:02:20,560 But even in 2020, at the end of the Trump administration, even 52 00:02:20,560 --> 00:02:22,840 in 2020, JD Vance is in the on the record. 53 00:02:22,840 --> 00:02:26,360 I think it's something. I think it's a mark of Trump's 54 00:02:26,360 --> 00:02:31,680 magnanimity that not only did he forgive Vance, calling him 55 00:02:31,720 --> 00:02:34,600 America's, possibly America's next Hitler, he made him his own 56 00:02:34,600 --> 00:02:38,640 vice president, some autocrat, you know, some some narcissist. 57 00:02:38,640 --> 00:02:40,520 Yeah. And so, yes, he's been on a 58 00:02:40,520 --> 00:02:44,440 journey. I think if you look at the 59 00:02:44,440 --> 00:02:48,720 strength of support he's shown from 2020 on one onwards, when 60 00:02:48,720 --> 00:02:51,520 he was running a very difficult Ohio campaign, it's very hard 61 00:02:51,520 --> 00:02:53,600 for us now to remember back in 2122. 62 00:02:53,960 --> 00:02:56,600 Trump is in. He's been written off by the. 63 00:02:56,720 --> 00:02:59,920 And actually, JD Vance's victory in that Senate, he was one of 64 00:02:59,920 --> 00:03:02,200 the few. The only the only the red way 65 00:03:02,200 --> 00:03:04,240 that there was that was his tiny little bit of a. 66 00:03:04,240 --> 00:03:05,320 Red one. It was a red trickle a. 67 00:03:05,320 --> 00:03:07,000 Red or red trickle. And it was Vance. 68 00:03:07,320 --> 00:03:10,520 And from there on in, from on the Senate floor at enormous 69 00:03:10,520 --> 00:03:14,320 political cost, very iced to take up very isolated views, 70 00:03:14,480 --> 00:03:17,640 isolations, isolated views, realist views on Ukraine and a 71 00:03:17,640 --> 00:03:20,760 whole range of other issues. It was a difficult thing to do. 72 00:03:20,760 --> 00:03:24,000 And he didn't waiver. Trump and Team Trump saw that. 73 00:03:24,000 --> 00:03:26,920 And that's why they thought that Donald needs a doe fur. 74 00:03:27,200 --> 00:03:30,120 He's our doe fur. And also, I guess JD Vance 75 00:03:30,120 --> 00:03:32,560 realised in this one example that if you attach yourself to 76 00:03:32,560 --> 00:03:36,040 Donald Trump and he attaches himself to you in some areas, 77 00:03:36,040 --> 00:03:37,680 that could be a winning ticket, right? 78 00:03:38,240 --> 00:03:40,440 You know, had he, had he not won that seat, I wonder what he 79 00:03:40,440 --> 00:03:42,680 would. Have in the summer of 2022, it 80 00:03:42,680 --> 00:03:44,800 seemed. In fact, I remember how 81 00:03:44,800 --> 00:03:48,000 concerned I was at the time. Is this really a good idea? 82 00:03:48,040 --> 00:03:51,040 I know you see yourself as being ideologically aligned with 83 00:03:51,040 --> 00:03:56,000 Trump, but look, he's got 95 legal cases against, so the 84 00:03:56,000 --> 00:03:57,960 guy's going to be in jail, not the Oval Office. 85 00:03:57,960 --> 00:04:00,320 What on earth are you doing? And yet he stuck with him 86 00:04:00,320 --> 00:04:02,560 through thick and thin. Do you see JD Vance as the 87 00:04:02,560 --> 00:04:04,080 future President of the United States? 88 00:04:04,080 --> 00:04:06,000 Yes, I do. You do you think he'll be 89 00:04:06,000 --> 00:04:07,800 elected in the next election? Well. 90 00:04:07,800 --> 00:04:12,760 I think he will be the Republican candidate in 2027 and 91 00:04:12,760 --> 00:04:15,720 I think he stands a very, very looking at approval ratings for 92 00:04:15,720 --> 00:04:17,880 the Democrat Party, which are lower than they've been in 93 00:04:17,880 --> 00:04:20,600 living memory. I suspect. 94 00:04:20,720 --> 00:04:22,760 Look, not going to make predictions. 95 00:04:22,760 --> 00:04:26,440 This is a very, very time of unprecedented flux in American 96 00:04:26,440 --> 00:04:29,640 politics. Of course, my sense is he is 97 00:04:29,680 --> 00:04:33,360 dead set to be Republican candidate for the next 98 00:04:33,360 --> 00:04:36,720 presidential election. And I think he on, you know, my, 99 00:04:36,760 --> 00:04:39,680 my sense is he's got a very good chance of being in the Oval. 100 00:04:39,680 --> 00:04:42,440 Office does he see that's that way I mean has he told you that 101 00:04:42,440 --> 00:04:43,400 he that's. That's what he's. 102 00:04:43,400 --> 00:04:45,800 He doesn't think about it at all, I think. 103 00:04:45,920 --> 00:04:48,240 No, I think he. Why don't I believe that? 104 00:04:48,240 --> 00:04:51,400 Because he's very conscious of people like you asking questions 105 00:04:51,400 --> 00:04:52,680 about it. And he is absolute. 106 00:04:52,680 --> 00:04:55,120 If you took in every public pronouncement, including the 107 00:04:55,240 --> 00:04:58,160 actually and as well as private pronouncements, as we saw from 108 00:04:58,160 --> 00:05:01,800 the Signal a few weeks ago, he was very clear about what is it 109 00:05:01,800 --> 00:05:03,840 the what is the president's mind on this? 110 00:05:03,840 --> 00:05:07,520 What is the president's view? And my sense is he's got his 111 00:05:07,520 --> 00:05:11,800 loyalty to Trump is, is absolute. 2028 for him is a long 112 00:05:11,800 --> 00:05:17,200 way off. And I suspect that he he within, 113 00:05:17,280 --> 00:05:20,640 within MAGA, he is being acclaimed as the Doefur, as the 114 00:05:20,640 --> 00:05:23,640 most obvious successor to Trump. And indeed, that's why I think 115 00:05:23,640 --> 00:05:25,720 Team Trump pushed so hard for him when it would have been 116 00:05:25,720 --> 00:05:30,440 easier to appoint a more, you know, electorally attractive 117 00:05:30,760 --> 00:05:32,840 running mate. I mean, Trump himself was out 118 00:05:32,840 --> 00:05:36,520 polling Vance in Ohio in 2022. It didn't make any electoral 119 00:05:36,520 --> 00:05:39,160 sense. It it I think what Team Trump 120 00:05:39,160 --> 00:05:41,880 recognised that was, you know, Vance was the future of MAGA. 121 00:05:42,120 --> 00:05:46,440 That if we want Trumpism to persist beyond Trump, then he's 122 00:05:46,440 --> 00:05:49,080 our man. So what is how does that tally 123 00:05:49,080 --> 00:05:52,880 with one plan that's been muted that, you know, President Trump 124 00:05:52,880 --> 00:05:55,520 talks about this quite openly. I might, might run for a third 125 00:05:55,520 --> 00:05:57,600 term, maybe not. That would, you know, either 126 00:05:58,080 --> 00:06:01,120 require a change of the Constitution, which is tough, or 127 00:06:01,120 --> 00:06:04,800 there's this ruse that Vance becomes the the main candidate, 128 00:06:05,320 --> 00:06:07,960 Donald Trump runs as the vice and they do a Switcher route. 129 00:06:07,960 --> 00:06:09,400 This is what Putin did with Medvedev. 130 00:06:09,400 --> 00:06:11,680 But do you think that your friend would agree with that? 131 00:06:11,800 --> 00:06:15,200 Like he he wins the presidency and then says, OK, Donald, off 132 00:06:15,200 --> 00:06:16,960 you take, you know, off you go for another term. 133 00:06:17,520 --> 00:06:19,040 I find that hard to imagine. I I. 134 00:06:19,880 --> 00:06:21,360 I think he would keep his counsel. 135 00:06:21,400 --> 00:06:25,440 I think he I think if, if he were pressed, if the Constitute, 136 00:06:25,440 --> 00:06:28,920 if he were asked, if the Constitution permitted it, would 137 00:06:28,920 --> 00:06:30,720 you want Trump to run for a third term? 138 00:06:30,720 --> 00:06:33,160 I think he'd say yes. If but the Constitution. 139 00:06:33,160 --> 00:06:34,320 Doesn't, but the Constitution doesn't. 140 00:06:34,320 --> 00:06:37,120 So I think look. But even you are putting a 141 00:06:37,120 --> 00:06:39,280 little question mark over that. What? 142 00:06:39,280 --> 00:06:40,240 No. What do you mean? 143 00:06:40,400 --> 00:06:42,280 Do I think that they're actually going to, he's going to, he's 144 00:06:42,280 --> 00:06:44,040 going to run for it? No, I think that's completely 145 00:06:44,040 --> 00:06:45,920 fanciful. Look, as always with Trump, look 146 00:06:45,920 --> 00:06:48,000 at what he says. Look at what he does, not what 147 00:06:48,000 --> 00:06:50,000 he says. And as I keep saying to you, 148 00:06:50,000 --> 00:06:52,600 you've got to do both right? Because he says a lot of stuff. 149 00:06:52,640 --> 00:06:55,440 You've got to weigh them correctly and I think too many 150 00:06:55,440 --> 00:06:58,240 in the media classes, particularly in the UK, tend to 151 00:06:58,240 --> 00:07:00,400 focus too much on what he says and not enough. 152 00:07:00,480 --> 00:07:02,280 On that's because he wants us to focus on it, right? 153 00:07:02,280 --> 00:07:03,600 It's about the attention of the economy. 154 00:07:03,600 --> 00:07:06,120 I want to talk about, you know, morality and tariffs. 155 00:07:06,880 --> 00:07:10,960 Is it moral for the United States to impose a tariff of 156 00:07:11,680 --> 00:07:14,960 what is it 45% on the Soto, you know, a country that's simply 157 00:07:14,960 --> 00:07:18,640 too poor to buy American goods? Is it? 158 00:07:18,720 --> 00:07:20,520 Is that Christian? Is that Christian behaviour? 159 00:07:20,600 --> 00:07:22,640 Let's. Just take a step back on the 160 00:07:22,640 --> 00:07:26,840 whole kind of tariffs question. It it is not, it's very easy to 161 00:07:26,840 --> 00:07:28,680 single out. Not just I'm glad you're saying 162 00:07:28,680 --> 00:07:31,840 that as a as a as an associate professor of the the philosophy 163 00:07:31,840 --> 00:07:33,760 of religion, we. Can come on to that, but then we 164 00:07:33,760 --> 00:07:35,280 can take. We want to take take a 165 00:07:35,280 --> 00:07:37,440 philosophical view of tariffs. We, we, we, we could take, we 166 00:07:37,440 --> 00:07:40,360 could take a look at Lesotho or we could take a look at that 167 00:07:40,360 --> 00:07:42,280 rock in the middle of nowhere with just Penguins on it. 168 00:07:42,280 --> 00:07:44,240 Yes, right now. So, so what's going on here, as 169 00:07:44,240 --> 00:07:47,080 I understand it from trade specialists and certainly not a 170 00:07:47,080 --> 00:07:51,160 trade specialist. If you're trying to signal to 171 00:07:51,160 --> 00:07:54,360 the world that you are interested, you you are 172 00:07:54,360 --> 00:07:57,480 passionate about reducing tariffs and getting to the point 173 00:07:57,480 --> 00:08:01,840 of a fairer trade and freer trade, then you can't allow any 174 00:08:01,840 --> 00:08:05,040 loopholes, right? You can't allow, you know, China 175 00:08:05,040 --> 00:08:08,280 to so funnel it's good through that's who to and so the 176 00:08:08,280 --> 00:08:10,040 questions you. Know one of the Chinese were 177 00:08:10,040 --> 00:08:11,720 using the sushi. I think that, well, that one 178 00:08:11,720 --> 00:08:13,760 just got caught up in the geographical drag. 179 00:08:13,800 --> 00:08:15,560 Absolutely right. And I think the question is but. 180 00:08:15,560 --> 00:08:18,160 That's the problem, isn't it? You know, this is a hammer for a 181 00:08:18,160 --> 00:08:19,600 nail. Do you want to use, you know, 182 00:08:19,600 --> 00:08:22,440 something slightly more precise? Look, from the Americans point 183 00:08:22,440 --> 00:08:25,360 of view, this is not a nail. This is actually a deep 184 00:08:25,440 --> 00:08:30,960 structural problem in the post war international order. 185 00:08:30,960 --> 00:08:33,640 Coming from the country that is by far the richest on the 186 00:08:33,640 --> 00:08:36,799 planet, that's not exactly done, you know, bad out of the system. 187 00:08:36,799 --> 00:08:38,960 It's done very bad. That has done very, very well, 188 00:08:38,960 --> 00:08:44,480 but has also catalysing the prosperity of major emerging 189 00:08:44,480 --> 00:08:48,040 civilisational actors who are plainly hostile to not just 190 00:08:48,040 --> 00:08:50,480 American interests, but the interests of all of us across 191 00:08:50,480 --> 00:08:51,840 the West. And I think that's certainly, 192 00:08:52,240 --> 00:08:53,360 certainly. Through About China. 193 00:08:53,360 --> 00:08:55,040 And talk and talk is absolutely about China. 194 00:08:55,360 --> 00:08:57,280 And no one disagrees with the fact that China been very 195 00:08:57,280 --> 00:08:58,920 naughty when it comes to trade. And so the. 196 00:08:58,920 --> 00:09:01,920 Sealing property rights says. Not, you know, how dare. 197 00:09:02,080 --> 00:09:03,640 Is it fair? Is it moral? 198 00:09:03,640 --> 00:09:05,000 Is it? But that is the question. 199 00:09:05,000 --> 00:09:07,400 Well, no, because hold on. Because well, then forget about 200 00:09:07,400 --> 00:09:09,720 Christian, there's there's fairness in trade, whether 201 00:09:09,720 --> 00:09:11,200 you're a Jew or a Muslim as well, right? 202 00:09:11,200 --> 00:09:13,040 So right. But is it fair? 203 00:09:14,240 --> 00:09:16,680 Is it and is it necessary? And is it? 204 00:09:16,680 --> 00:09:18,120 If you're a. Art James or. 205 00:09:18,120 --> 00:09:20,560 If you're a Christian politician, if you're any 206 00:09:20,560 --> 00:09:25,480 politician, to whom do you owe your first obligations and 207 00:09:25,480 --> 00:09:27,240 loyalties? To the people whom you 208 00:09:27,240 --> 00:09:29,400 represent. And from the American's point of 209 00:09:29,440 --> 00:09:32,640 view, the people that they represent have been marginalised 210 00:09:32,640 --> 00:09:35,120 and dispossessed. And but which people? 211 00:09:35,120 --> 00:09:37,760 Because when you're talking about the small businessman they 212 00:09:37,760 --> 00:09:40,680 know that imports Barbie dolls from China to sell in the well, 213 00:09:40,680 --> 00:09:43,040 let me just finish to sell in the toy shop down the road, 214 00:09:43,160 --> 00:09:45,160 small family business, they're going bust. 215 00:09:45,440 --> 00:09:48,080 You're talking about the auto workers who we had in the Rose 216 00:09:48,080 --> 00:09:50,280 Garden. They might not get the jobs that 217 00:09:50,280 --> 00:09:52,000 they've been promised as a result of all this. 218 00:09:52,200 --> 00:09:53,960 You're talking about your mates on Wall Street. 219 00:09:54,040 --> 00:09:55,800 Well, they're really upset because they've just lost a. 220 00:09:55,920 --> 00:09:57,920 Ton of money. The Trump Pants administration 221 00:09:58,400 --> 00:10:03,760 are desperate to see a quick, concrete solution to what they 222 00:10:03,760 --> 00:10:06,920 see as an unfair trading environment. 223 00:10:07,120 --> 00:10:08,720 And the question is really a tactical one. 224 00:10:09,040 --> 00:10:12,680 Do should they spend the next four years carefully negotiating 225 00:10:12,680 --> 00:10:17,040 bilateral trade agreements with the Lesotho and other, you know, 226 00:10:17,200 --> 00:10:18,120 other countries around the world? 227 00:10:18,120 --> 00:10:21,080 Don't bother with. The well, their view is this is 228 00:10:21,080 --> 00:10:24,840 not a nail. This is this, this is a serious 229 00:10:24,840 --> 00:10:27,320 problem that needs a bazooka. We've got to RIP the bandage 230 00:10:27,320 --> 00:10:28,920 off. What you're seeing is an 231 00:10:28,920 --> 00:10:32,040 attempt, an extremely, you know, an attempt to deal with an 232 00:10:32,040 --> 00:10:36,320 extremely complex problem. Roosevelt tried it in the 1940s. 233 00:10:36,360 --> 00:10:40,000 Reagan tried it in the 1980s to with with some success. 234 00:10:40,360 --> 00:10:44,440 He's attempting to reconfigure the entire global international 235 00:10:44,440 --> 00:10:48,360 order with respect to trade. And he sees in China credibly 236 00:10:48,360 --> 00:10:52,200 and plausibly A hostile civilisational actor that has 237 00:10:52,200 --> 00:10:55,480 done extremely well out of the United States, that is 238 00:10:55,480 --> 00:10:58,480 artificially manipulating its currency downwards to make its 239 00:10:58,480 --> 00:11:00,800 exports more attractive, that has been ripping off the 240 00:11:00,800 --> 00:11:04,600 American intellectual property for many, many, many years, and 241 00:11:04,600 --> 00:11:07,640 that has been imposing consistently higher tariffs than 242 00:11:07,640 --> 00:11:10,120 America's been imposing on it. Same with the European Union 243 00:11:10,320 --> 00:11:12,640 with respect to tariffs. One thing that really strikes 244 00:11:12,640 --> 00:11:16,000 me, especially about him, your friend JD Vance is, and you 245 00:11:16,000 --> 00:11:17,600 know, he's smart. He's written a great book. 246 00:11:17,600 --> 00:11:19,760 The Hillbilly Energy is a is a superb book. 247 00:11:20,240 --> 00:11:22,800 He is smart, but he's also angry. 248 00:11:23,080 --> 00:11:25,880 And that anger comes across whether he's dealing with 249 00:11:25,880 --> 00:11:28,600 Zelensky in the Oval Office, whether he's addressing 250 00:11:28,600 --> 00:11:30,920 Europeans at the Munich Security Summit. 251 00:11:31,160 --> 00:11:34,520 Where's that anger from? I don't need to tell you, Matt, 252 00:11:35,000 --> 00:11:37,600 as a reporter, A seasoned reporter on the United. 253 00:11:37,600 --> 00:11:40,000 And that's for the flat. Over years, over many, many 254 00:11:40,000 --> 00:11:45,640 years, that anger is one that you can see it in Hillbilly 255 00:11:45,640 --> 00:11:46,840 Elegy. You see it in the book. 256 00:11:46,840 --> 00:11:51,160 You see it in that sense of pride that he has in middle 257 00:11:51,160 --> 00:11:55,800 America, but also horror at what he perceives, I think quite 258 00:11:55,800 --> 00:11:59,440 plausibly, as the economic devastation of the American 259 00:11:59,440 --> 00:12:01,880 working class. But I'm talking about civility, 260 00:12:01,880 --> 00:12:04,480 or rather the lack of civility in something like dealing with, 261 00:12:04,720 --> 00:12:06,640 you know, President Zelensky in the Oval Office. 262 00:12:07,960 --> 00:12:10,440 I mean, that was appalling, wasn't it, the way he, you know, 263 00:12:10,440 --> 00:12:13,520 behaved towards someone. And I know, you know, JD Vance 264 00:12:13,520 --> 00:12:15,360 knows about the military because he served at the military. 265 00:12:15,360 --> 00:12:17,280 But here's someone who's basically prepared to give his 266 00:12:17,280 --> 00:12:18,800 life for his country who didn't run. 267 00:12:19,120 --> 00:12:20,440 The Americans offered him a ride. 268 00:12:20,440 --> 00:12:23,320 He didn't take it. And he's, you know, defended his 269 00:12:23,320 --> 00:12:27,640 nation from Russian aggression. And here's JD Vance basically, 270 00:12:28,120 --> 00:12:30,960 you know, assaulting him in the Oval Office. 271 00:12:30,960 --> 00:12:35,760 Verbally, I will simply say that in the six or seven years I've 272 00:12:35,760 --> 00:12:38,920 known him, I've never known him lose his temper once. 273 00:12:38,960 --> 00:12:41,080 He's personally very equitable. But he did then. 274 00:12:41,120 --> 00:12:43,640 And and in that it well, look, we all lose our temper. 275 00:12:43,880 --> 00:12:46,040 Very easy to lose once, but. Onto the cameras at the Oval 276 00:12:46,040 --> 00:12:47,560 Office. Well, I think it was unwise. 277 00:12:47,560 --> 00:12:49,240 Choose your moments. Look, I think it was, you're 278 00:12:49,480 --> 00:12:54,760 probably right that it was unwise for a proper and 279 00:12:54,760 --> 00:12:57,240 important trilateral conversation or bilateral 280 00:12:57,240 --> 00:12:59,880 conversation between the Ukraine, but between Zelensky 281 00:12:59,880 --> 00:13:03,720 and and Trump Vance to be conducted in the Oval Office. 282 00:13:03,720 --> 00:13:06,960 Now I in front of the cameras and I think the kinds of 283 00:13:06,960 --> 00:13:09,520 conversation, the sort of conversation you had there is 284 00:13:09,520 --> 00:13:12,200 the kind of conversation that is happening behind closed doors. 285 00:13:12,640 --> 00:13:15,160 Was it a setup though? No, absolutely not you. 286 00:13:15,240 --> 00:13:17,200 Sure about that. I had no question of the setup. 287 00:13:17,200 --> 00:13:20,080 If you look at the whole, the whole thing from start to 288 00:13:20,080 --> 00:13:23,160 finish, it was actually very amicable conversation right up 289 00:13:23,160 --> 00:13:24,320 to the last two or three minutes. 290 00:13:24,640 --> 00:13:27,720 And you could see throughout the conversation that Zelensky was 291 00:13:27,720 --> 00:13:29,280 pushing, as you would expect him to. 292 00:13:29,280 --> 00:13:31,960 He's pushing for his countries. He is a national conservative 293 00:13:31,960 --> 00:13:33,840 too. He's pushing for his nation's 294 00:13:33,840 --> 00:13:35,280 interests. Nothing wrong with that. 295 00:13:35,640 --> 00:13:38,120 But he went into the conversation, I think he was 296 00:13:38,120 --> 00:13:40,040 badly briefed. He was badly advised because 297 00:13:40,040 --> 00:13:41,040 what? Did and he didn't have a 298 00:13:41,040 --> 00:13:42,440 translator which would have helped him. 299 00:13:42,440 --> 00:13:44,240 All sorts of that, all sorts of things he could. 300 00:13:44,320 --> 00:13:48,280 Even so, Even so, the, the fact that he's in, he's, he's their 301 00:13:48,280 --> 00:13:51,200 guest, he's in their office, he's in the Oval Office and 302 00:13:51,200 --> 00:13:53,680 they're rounding on him. Listen, that is just 303 00:13:53,680 --> 00:13:56,240 unacceptable, isn't it? I mean, even whether you agree 304 00:13:56,240 --> 00:13:57,440 with the Ukraine policy or not, look. 305 00:13:58,120 --> 00:14:01,400 He's not just just in the Oval Office, He is in the cockpit of 306 00:14:01,400 --> 00:14:04,960 a nation that is, whose generosity and support is, but 307 00:14:04,960 --> 00:14:06,560 he's held his own nation. But he. 308 00:14:06,600 --> 00:14:07,360 Wasn't being. Rude. 309 00:14:07,360 --> 00:14:10,640 Well, look, he really wasn't. And he has said thank you, you 310 00:14:10,640 --> 00:14:13,160 know, for America's help aplenty almost every day. 311 00:14:13,160 --> 00:14:17,040 Look. Look look, I don't you can very 312 00:14:17,040 --> 00:14:20,640 easy to pick up on personal foibles or momentary lapse. 313 00:14:21,600 --> 00:14:23,200 This was a key moment there, wasn't it? 314 00:14:23,360 --> 00:14:26,080 And your old friend didn't come out of it in the minds of, you 315 00:14:26,080 --> 00:14:29,360 know, many people around the world looking any better for it. 316 00:14:29,400 --> 00:14:31,680 Was it was a key moment. It was a key moment. 317 00:14:31,680 --> 00:14:33,920 What would you tell Vance down the phone if he rang you up and 318 00:14:33,920 --> 00:14:36,200 asked you about that? Would you say, JD, you went too 319 00:14:36,200 --> 00:14:40,920 far or would you say fantastic? No, I in fact, no, I certainly 320 00:14:40,920 --> 00:14:43,520 wouldn't. It was not not my place to tell 321 00:14:43,520 --> 00:14:45,320 him how to conduct him. A friend of his. 322 00:14:45,560 --> 00:14:50,360 It's, I'm a friend of his, but, and it, it is, it is the duty of 323 00:14:50,360 --> 00:14:52,640 friends to be critical where necessary. 324 00:14:53,360 --> 00:14:55,080 He's also the vice president of the United States. 325 00:14:55,080 --> 00:14:57,640 And I think in that particular context, and we've been talking 326 00:14:57,640 --> 00:14:59,880 about, he and I've been talking about Ukraine for the best part 327 00:14:59,880 --> 00:15:03,560 of two or three years, and he has been mystified at the lack 328 00:15:03,560 --> 00:15:07,040 of a serious debate in the public square all across Europe, 329 00:15:07,040 --> 00:15:10,440 including the UK. And about what there has been 330 00:15:10,440 --> 00:15:12,960 plenty of debate about. I think for. 331 00:15:12,960 --> 00:15:15,360 Ukraine from how we're helping. No, look, I'm glad to say 332 00:15:15,360 --> 00:15:18,400 there's been the support for Ukraine and the admiration of 333 00:15:18,400 --> 00:15:20,760 Zelensky has been, broadly speaking, pretty, pretty. 334 00:15:20,760 --> 00:15:22,160 Unanimous. And you're in favour of that? 335 00:15:22,240 --> 00:15:24,920 I'm absolutely in favour of that and I think he's in favour too. 336 00:15:24,920 --> 00:15:29,160 What he is in favour of is a peaceful and prosperous Ukraine 337 00:15:29,200 --> 00:15:31,320 and he is looking in a very clear eyed way. 338 00:15:31,640 --> 00:15:35,080 How do we get Ukraine on the path to reconstruction? 339 00:15:35,280 --> 00:15:38,720 How do we stop 2000 Ukrainians being centered in the meat 340 00:15:38,720 --> 00:15:40,880 grinder every week? How can we reverse? 341 00:15:40,880 --> 00:15:43,560 Which is all very, which is fantastic, you see. 342 00:15:43,840 --> 00:15:47,680 How to get there when you've been a president who is bent on 343 00:15:48,240 --> 00:15:51,400 accelerating the war and who is? Still who you're talking about. 344 00:15:51,520 --> 00:15:53,680 I'm talking about Zelensky. When you've got somebody who. 345 00:15:53,680 --> 00:15:55,600 Is trying to accelerate the war. He's trying to win the war. 346 00:15:55,600 --> 00:15:57,600 He's trying to precisely. The war that he doesn't start. 347 00:15:57,720 --> 00:15:59,840 There's a difference. And nobody and nobody. 348 00:15:59,840 --> 00:16:01,280 Will hang on a minute, what do you actually mean? 349 00:16:01,280 --> 00:16:04,520 So what I'm trying to say here is that every clear eyed 350 00:16:04,520 --> 00:16:08,120 military analysis of the situation in Ukraine recognises 351 00:16:08,160 --> 00:16:11,920 that there is no way that Ukraine can defeat Russia, No 352 00:16:11,920 --> 00:16:14,240 way at all. But the other question is how 353 00:16:14,240 --> 00:16:18,280 does Ukraine get or what's left of Ukraine tragically, how, how 354 00:16:18,360 --> 00:16:22,280 do we, how does America exercise it's leverage with Russia as 355 00:16:22,280 --> 00:16:26,320 well to get what's, what can survive from, from, from Ukraine 356 00:16:26,440 --> 00:16:29,080 back on the path to peace, prosperity and reconstruction? 357 00:16:29,080 --> 00:16:32,960 My sense is the perception the White House in on January the 358 00:16:32,960 --> 00:16:37,640 20th on inauguration day was that if you're going to get 359 00:16:37,840 --> 00:16:41,560 peace talks going between Russia and Ukraine, you're there's 360 00:16:41,560 --> 00:16:45,920 going to have to be some kind of optical, optical rebalancing. 361 00:16:46,160 --> 00:16:49,240 That is to say the demonizing of Putin. 362 00:16:49,960 --> 00:16:52,680 Quite right. He, he, Putin is mad. 363 00:16:53,560 --> 00:16:56,520 It is bad, but he's not mad. You've got to start to 364 00:16:56,520 --> 00:16:59,720 understand him as a rational, though malevolent actor. 365 00:17:00,040 --> 00:17:03,760 On the other hand, I think the view is that Zelensky has been 366 00:17:04,280 --> 00:17:06,760 unhelpfully for him and unhelpfully for his nation, 367 00:17:06,760 --> 00:17:10,800 cause lionized, indeed. Canonized front page of Vogue. 368 00:17:11,640 --> 00:17:13,640 Yeah, there's been a lot. Of But like Donald Trump, he's 369 00:17:13,640 --> 00:17:16,560 been on the front page of of of Time magazine. 370 00:17:16,560 --> 00:17:19,240 Pretty Man of the year twice. Pretty stalionisation. 371 00:17:19,240 --> 00:17:21,000 Pretty yes, that colonisation look. 372 00:17:21,520 --> 00:17:23,720 Whatever. Look, I wonder how many spreads 373 00:17:23,839 --> 00:17:25,839 we like. Obama But we like, you know, we 374 00:17:25,839 --> 00:17:28,200 especially Britain, we like the underdog, absolutely. 375 00:17:28,200 --> 00:17:29,880 And we like someone who resists aggression. 376 00:17:29,880 --> 00:17:32,320 You're right and I think. And you're taking that away 377 00:17:32,320 --> 00:17:33,680 from? Him one of the problems I think 378 00:17:33,680 --> 00:17:38,000 we have in Britain, and partly it's a, you know, it's a feature 379 00:17:38,000 --> 00:17:42,240 of our history, is that we suffer from bad cases of World 380 00:17:42,240 --> 00:17:45,520 War Two brain. That is to say, every serious 381 00:17:45,520 --> 00:17:50,000 geopolitical crisis on the continent, it seems can only be 382 00:17:50,000 --> 00:17:53,480 refracted through a conflict that ended 80 years ago, which 383 00:17:53,480 --> 00:17:57,640 we happen to do very well in. And so Vance's Chamberlain, 384 00:17:57,920 --> 00:18:02,560 Zelensky is Churchill, Putin is Hitler, Ukraine is Poland. 385 00:18:02,960 --> 00:18:06,000 And I just think that's an incredibly unhelpful way to 386 00:18:06,000 --> 00:18:11,920 understand rational action by these nation States and very 387 00:18:11,920 --> 00:18:14,200 different personalities, very different dynamics. 388 00:18:14,480 --> 00:18:19,240 To be fair to him, on Trump's watch, there were very, very few 389 00:18:19,240 --> 00:18:22,160 major, or if not, if any major conflicts. 390 00:18:22,160 --> 00:18:27,040 Putin did not, would not, I think very if, if Trump had had 391 00:18:27,040 --> 00:18:29,120 won in 2020, it hadn't been Biden. 392 00:18:29,160 --> 00:18:31,920 I very much doubt that we'd have seen that that that. 393 00:18:31,920 --> 00:18:34,600 Invasion the madman is right. So this guy is powerful. 394 00:18:34,600 --> 00:18:35,680 He's unpredictable. Look. 395 00:18:36,040 --> 00:18:38,320 I wonder if that that theory still stands there after the, 396 00:18:38,440 --> 00:18:40,800 you know, the way that Trump is basically. 397 00:18:41,360 --> 00:18:44,440 Look, do we think that Trump. Mollified do we think? 398 00:18:44,440 --> 00:18:47,160 That Trump is just is predictable on anything, 399 00:18:47,160 --> 00:18:52,240 including the question of a rival strongman undermining his 400 00:18:52,240 --> 00:18:55,040 stated goals of achieving peace and prosperity in the Ukraine. 401 00:18:55,040 --> 00:18:57,400 No I don't. I think the madman theory has 402 00:18:57,440 --> 00:19:00,720 it's has it's merits. Your mate JD Vance, you know 403 00:19:00,760 --> 00:19:02,280 he's smart. He may well be the next 404 00:19:02,280 --> 00:19:03,240 president. I don't know. 405 00:19:04,120 --> 00:19:05,560 But he's also quite mean, isn't he? 406 00:19:05,560 --> 00:19:07,720 I mean, the stuff he said in Green and about the Danes was 407 00:19:07,720 --> 00:19:09,880 just mean. It was, it was in politic, it 408 00:19:09,880 --> 00:19:11,880 was uncivil. This, you know, the stuff that 409 00:19:11,880 --> 00:19:14,480 he said to, you know, the Europeans at Munich, that's 410 00:19:14,520 --> 00:19:16,520 mean. The way he treated the way he 411 00:19:16,520 --> 00:19:18,280 treated Zelensky and the other was. 412 00:19:18,480 --> 00:19:20,960 You mean you've been can? You talk to him and say stop 413 00:19:20,960 --> 00:19:22,760 being so mean. You've been covering politics. 414 00:19:22,760 --> 00:19:24,800 You're not mean. It's politics is. 415 00:19:25,080 --> 00:19:26,960 I'm not a politician. I don't have to be mean. 416 00:19:27,160 --> 00:19:29,440 I'm not representing the interests of millions of people. 417 00:19:29,600 --> 00:19:31,560 I'm not standing. Representing my country, you 418 00:19:31,560 --> 00:19:34,360 cannot be politics to pick fights with your friends and 419 00:19:34,360 --> 00:19:37,560 allies. The question is to what extent 420 00:19:37,560 --> 00:19:39,800 have they been good friends and allies? 421 00:19:39,800 --> 00:19:42,840 And I think the remarks in Greenland were, look, has 422 00:19:42,840 --> 00:19:46,440 Denmark, has Denmark really been doing everything that it can to 423 00:19:46,440 --> 00:19:49,920 take seriously? The Greenlanders, all 57,000 of 424 00:19:49,920 --> 00:19:52,640 them, who, by the way, don't want to become America's 51st 425 00:19:52,640 --> 00:19:56,760 state in Canada in case. Canada and Vance was very clear 426 00:19:57,080 --> 00:19:59,360 that that is a matter for the Greenlanders. 427 00:19:59,640 --> 00:20:02,240 He was very clear in that, in that, in that, in those 428 00:20:02,240 --> 00:20:03,400 pronouncements of the press conference. 429 00:20:03,400 --> 00:20:08,760 So he's not, you know, it's but this, this question of niceness, 430 00:20:08,760 --> 00:20:10,880 is he going to cuddle? Is he why isn't he more cuddly? 431 00:20:11,160 --> 00:20:12,360 I'll talk about, let me assure you. 432 00:20:12,360 --> 00:20:14,040 Nice is the wrong word. Civility, right? 433 00:20:14,040 --> 00:20:16,280 So this is so, you know, just to get to the number of it. 434 00:20:16,680 --> 00:20:19,880 America, you know, of course it's not been plain sailing. 435 00:20:19,880 --> 00:20:22,360 And I know Americans feel that, you know, they've been 436 00:20:22,360 --> 00:20:24,960 victimized by others and they've been taken for a ride. 437 00:20:24,960 --> 00:20:27,280 And it's not Uncle Sam, it's Uncle Sucker, all that stuff. 438 00:20:27,880 --> 00:20:31,800 But America has prevailed for 80 years, not just because of its 439 00:20:31,800 --> 00:20:34,680 hard power, but because of its soft power. 440 00:20:35,280 --> 00:20:37,600 The fact that it's got a message that people want to buy into, 441 00:20:38,120 --> 00:20:40,360 right? Isn't it throwing all that away 442 00:20:40,360 --> 00:20:41,840 with the way it's behaving right now? 443 00:20:42,160 --> 00:20:44,960 I think actually you've seen certainly in this country a 444 00:20:44,960 --> 00:20:50,320 rising tide of anti Americanism, of hostility towards America and 445 00:20:50,320 --> 00:20:53,400 American culture and I think soft power and look, I know the 446 00:20:53,400 --> 00:20:54,720 Foreign Office loves to talk about. 447 00:20:54,720 --> 00:20:57,200 I think it's overrated. Tell that to the Hooties, you 448 00:20:57,200 --> 00:20:58,520 know, I mean, have they not heard? 449 00:20:58,520 --> 00:20:59,640 We're not talking about. The Hooties. 450 00:20:59,640 --> 00:21:00,640 And we're not talking about Hamas. 451 00:21:00,640 --> 00:21:03,280 We're talking about the Germans, the French, the Brits, the 452 00:21:03,320 --> 00:21:04,360 Belgians. You're putting your 453 00:21:04,360 --> 00:21:07,080 fingestyneans, you're putting your finger on something very 454 00:21:07,080 --> 00:21:09,160 important. And I think this is a challenge 455 00:21:09,160 --> 00:21:13,320 for every nation that becomes an empire, whether it wants to be 456 00:21:13,320 --> 00:21:15,760 or not, whether it calls itself an empire or not. 457 00:21:16,040 --> 00:21:17,840 The fact is there are two Americas. 458 00:21:18,240 --> 00:21:21,760 There's the nation, and there's the global hegemon. 459 00:21:21,960 --> 00:21:25,600 There's in, in Vance's words, there's we the people. 460 00:21:25,880 --> 00:21:29,600 And America is a proposition in which anybody can sign up. 461 00:21:29,600 --> 00:21:32,280 Yeah, but. America won the America won the 462 00:21:32,280 --> 00:21:36,200 war against the Soviet Union without firing a single shot 463 00:21:36,560 --> 00:21:38,160 right? Because it outspent them on 464 00:21:38,160 --> 00:21:39,080 defence? Absolutely. 465 00:21:39,080 --> 00:21:42,440 And because America had a message, call it soft power, 466 00:21:42,440 --> 00:21:45,040 call it what you like, had a message that the rest of the 467 00:21:45,040 --> 00:21:48,000 planet was more beguiled by than the Soviet. 468 00:21:48,000 --> 00:21:51,880 And what was that message? That message was freedom over 469 00:21:51,880 --> 00:21:52,520 tyranny. Yeah. 470 00:21:52,640 --> 00:21:55,200 And part of the part of wait, wait, let me hold on, Let me 471 00:21:55,200 --> 00:21:57,360 finish. Part of the power of that Munich 472 00:21:57,360 --> 00:22:03,320 speech that Vance gave was that you Europeans, who we Americans 473 00:22:03,320 --> 00:22:06,360 look to, who we see as the cradle of the freedoms that we 474 00:22:06,360 --> 00:22:11,320 love, are failing to give expression to the stated will of 475 00:22:11,320 --> 00:22:15,560 your people. To be free to enjoy free speech. 476 00:22:15,560 --> 00:22:18,480 To be able to pray outside an abortion clinic without being 477 00:22:18,480 --> 00:22:19,280 arrested. Nonsense. 478 00:22:19,280 --> 00:22:20,440 He's trying. You know, this is the 479 00:22:20,440 --> 00:22:23,240 administration that's interfering in the German 480 00:22:23,240 --> 00:22:25,200 elections. Elon Musk appearing at Afd 481 00:22:25,200 --> 00:22:26,440 rallies. Don't talk to me about 482 00:22:26,480 --> 00:22:28,120 interference. Listen, Jamie. 483 00:22:28,360 --> 00:22:30,640 Vance has dinner with the head of the Afd in the. 484 00:22:30,640 --> 00:22:31,600 And why does he do that? And. 485 00:22:31,720 --> 00:22:33,080 Why does he do that? But he doesn't talk to the 486 00:22:33,080 --> 00:22:34,240 German, no. Why does it? 487 00:22:34,240 --> 00:22:35,440 Why and why? Why? 488 00:22:35,640 --> 00:22:37,680 Yeah, why you tell me so? So let well, I'll tell you 489 00:22:37,680 --> 00:22:40,400 exactly why. There is a sense first of all, 490 00:22:40,520 --> 00:22:42,200 that the previous administration, in fact 491 00:22:42,200 --> 00:22:44,600 administration all the way up, but particularly Biden 492 00:22:44,600 --> 00:22:49,720 administration had been using American power to press and to 493 00:22:49,760 --> 00:22:53,240 astroturf organizations, to fund organizations that are plainly 494 00:22:53,240 --> 00:22:56,760 contested and ideological in countries all around the world, 495 00:22:56,760 --> 00:22:59,040 particularly in Eastern Europe, with particularly more 496 00:22:59,040 --> 00:23:01,000 conservative countries like Hungary and Poland. 497 00:23:01,320 --> 00:23:06,600 And the US administration said their view is, look, if you care 498 00:23:06,600 --> 00:23:10,200 about freedom, if you if you share our founding vision of 499 00:23:10,200 --> 00:23:12,800 what makes Europe great and what makes America get great, 500 00:23:13,120 --> 00:23:16,800 freedom, individual responsibility, faith, family 501 00:23:16,800 --> 00:23:18,960 and so on. And all the things that we 502 00:23:18,960 --> 00:23:21,600 fought against the Soviet Union for, all the things that 503 00:23:21,640 --> 00:23:25,240 energize, energized us from Second World War all the way up 504 00:23:25,240 --> 00:23:30,680 to 1989, you've got to exemplify those values if you're going to 505 00:23:30,680 --> 00:23:32,720 defend them. You describe yourself as a 506 00:23:32,720 --> 00:23:36,080 national conservative. Why national? 507 00:23:36,760 --> 00:23:39,280 Why not just conservative? It's exactly you said that if 508 00:23:39,280 --> 00:23:41,360 you're not a national conservative, you're not a 509 00:23:41,360 --> 00:23:43,600 conservative. It's a very good, very good 510 00:23:43,600 --> 00:23:47,000 question, Matt. I think in many ways the 511 00:23:47,000 --> 00:23:50,400 adjective national should be redundant when it comes to 512 00:23:51,080 --> 00:23:55,520 stating one's political position in philosophical position in 513 00:23:55,560 --> 00:24:00,160 politics as as conservative. I think that all conservatives 514 00:24:00,440 --> 00:24:05,160 want to conserve what they love most, and the nation is one of 515 00:24:05,160 --> 00:24:07,440 the things that one loves. It's not the most important 516 00:24:07,440 --> 00:24:09,920 thing that the conservatives loves. 517 00:24:09,920 --> 00:24:11,880 They love family, they love community, they love 518 00:24:11,880 --> 00:24:14,320 neighborhood culture and heritage and so on. 519 00:24:14,600 --> 00:24:17,840 But the nation is on high on the list of what a conservative 520 00:24:17,840 --> 00:24:21,200 wants to conserve. So in a way, you're right to 521 00:24:21,200 --> 00:24:22,520 pick me up on that. Why national? 522 00:24:23,040 --> 00:24:26,520 I think the answer to that is that that adjective has forced 523 00:24:26,520 --> 00:24:28,400 itself to the surface in recent years. 524 00:24:28,800 --> 00:24:32,720 And as conservatism itself at the right itself has fractured, 525 00:24:32,800 --> 00:24:35,560 probably since Thatcher under the influence of figures like 526 00:24:35,560 --> 00:24:38,720 Hayek, economic liberalism, particularly neoliberalism. 527 00:24:38,720 --> 00:24:40,640 Thatcher would not have described herself as a National 528 00:24:40,640 --> 00:24:42,200 Conservative. No, she well. 529 00:24:42,200 --> 00:24:45,160 Said I'm a conservative and I'm very patriotic of. 530 00:24:45,160 --> 00:24:47,400 Course, in the 1980s she wouldn't have needed to use I 531 00:24:47,400 --> 00:24:52,160 think the adjective because I think the the headwinds of 532 00:24:52,600 --> 00:24:55,760 liberalism, particularly globalism and increasingly the 533 00:24:55,760 --> 00:25:00,720 rise of empirics, sort of very self confident imperialistic 534 00:25:00,720 --> 00:25:05,200 civilisational cultures like Russia and China are as it were 535 00:25:05,280 --> 00:25:07,680 undermining national sovereignty, undermining the 536 00:25:07,680 --> 00:25:12,080 basic principle that makes it possible for us to use the first 537 00:25:12,080 --> 00:25:14,720 person plural when we're talking about our country. 538 00:25:14,960 --> 00:25:16,400 That is a very what? Do you mean by that? 539 00:25:16,800 --> 00:25:20,800 Well, here's what I mean by it. We, in fact, we use the word we 540 00:25:20,800 --> 00:25:23,760 when we're talking about our fellow countrymen, generally 541 00:25:23,760 --> 00:25:26,240 speaking, in a way that doesn't seem at all controversial. 542 00:25:26,720 --> 00:25:31,040 And now that's very important. For example, if we want high 543 00:25:31,040 --> 00:25:35,880 rates of redistributive taxation, you need to, there 544 00:25:35,880 --> 00:25:38,680 needs to be that feeling that we're all in it together, that 545 00:25:38,680 --> 00:25:43,480 we owe each other duties as fellow citizens, that we will 546 00:25:43,480 --> 00:25:46,400 care for strangers because they are are strangers and we have an 547 00:25:46,400 --> 00:25:49,720 obligation to them. And I think one of the problems 548 00:25:49,720 --> 00:25:55,800 in the last 20 years on trade, on migration, on increasingly 549 00:25:55,800 --> 00:26:00,720 supranational bodies that are increasingly disconnected from 550 00:26:01,680 --> 00:26:05,280 electorates where there's a rising democratic, a democratic 551 00:26:05,280 --> 00:26:08,880 deficit, there's a sense that there is no longer a we. 552 00:26:09,040 --> 00:26:12,040 But what we have to say is just not cutting through to the 553 00:26:12,040 --> 00:26:14,520 people who are supposed to be implementing what we have to 554 00:26:14,520 --> 00:26:16,080 say. But the social contract is 555 00:26:16,080 --> 00:26:17,640 fraying. But are you talking about your 556 00:26:17,640 --> 00:26:19,440 we? Are we talking about the we that 557 00:26:19,440 --> 00:26:22,560 is, you know, middle class and white and Christian? 558 00:26:22,880 --> 00:26:24,080 There are lots of different ways aren't? 559 00:26:24,160 --> 00:26:26,320 There. Well, look, I mean, one of the 560 00:26:26,320 --> 00:26:31,520 things that struck me being a lone Brexiteer in Oxbridge was 561 00:26:31,520 --> 00:26:36,360 that as a white middle class Christian Brit, I was actually 562 00:26:36,360 --> 00:26:39,800 cutting against the grain of almost everyone around me. 563 00:26:39,800 --> 00:26:44,400 And I found myself increasingly wanting to speak up for all the 564 00:26:44,400 --> 00:26:48,120 Brexiteers among the staff who were waiting at our hand and 565 00:26:48,120 --> 00:26:49,920 foot and the Browns. That's. 566 00:26:49,920 --> 00:26:51,520 Brexit, which is 1 particular. Policy. 567 00:26:51,520 --> 00:26:54,600 And not about the. Identity National conservatism 568 00:26:54,640 --> 00:26:59,160 is born in 2016. It is born with the twin shocks 569 00:26:59,320 --> 00:27:02,360 of Brexit and Trump. Something that is relevant to 570 00:27:02,360 --> 00:27:05,080 you as someone working at university and that is the 571 00:27:05,080 --> 00:27:06,480 decision of the federal government. 572 00:27:06,800 --> 00:27:09,720 You know, also your friend JD Vance, who's not criticised it, 573 00:27:09,720 --> 00:27:13,720 to cut the funding, the federal funding for Harvard universities 574 00:27:13,720 --> 00:27:18,320 and six other elite universities in the United States because 575 00:27:18,680 --> 00:27:21,560 they've decided to, you know, to stand against the administration 576 00:27:21,560 --> 00:27:26,080 when it comes to certain requirements, restrictions that 577 00:27:26,080 --> 00:27:28,040 they wanted to impose on these universities. 578 00:27:28,400 --> 00:27:30,280 What do you think of that as an academic? 579 00:27:30,280 --> 00:27:33,480 I think the question of public funding of the UK universities 580 00:27:33,480 --> 00:27:36,360 is a very often sets up a very different set of policy issues 581 00:27:36,360 --> 00:27:38,800 and questions and concerns from the question of U.S. 582 00:27:38,800 --> 00:27:41,920 Federal funding of US universities, not least because 583 00:27:41,920 --> 00:27:44,800 US universities have enormous amounts of money. 584 00:27:44,800 --> 00:27:48,240 I mean, let's face it, Harvard has, is basically a hedge fund 585 00:27:48,240 --> 00:27:51,360 with a university attached. It's got $53 billion under 586 00:27:51,360 --> 00:27:53,960 management. You know it is not in desperate 587 00:27:53,960 --> 00:27:55,480 need. It's not missing there. 588 00:27:56,160 --> 00:27:59,680 Of taxpayer subsidy in middle America, especially when if I 589 00:27:59,680 --> 00:28:03,720 could just conclude especially when the Supreme Court found two 590 00:28:03,720 --> 00:28:08,240 years ago that Harvard for years has been practicing a policy of 591 00:28:08,240 --> 00:28:11,480 race based discrimination against Asian Americans in 592 00:28:11,480 --> 00:28:15,160 favour of more favoured ethnic minorities and and you know that 593 00:28:15,160 --> 00:28:18,320 is something which deeply concerns the government, I think 594 00:28:18,360 --> 00:28:21,600 concerns American taxpayers American taxpayers want to see 595 00:28:21,840 --> 00:28:25,480 money go to intellectual cultures and institutions that 596 00:28:25,480 --> 00:28:30,480 pursue freedom of inquiry. That model balanced reasonable 597 00:28:30,480 --> 00:28:33,560 disagreement about issues that Americans care about The trouble 598 00:28:33,560 --> 00:28:37,400 is as I as I know from having I just got back from Berkeley in 599 00:28:37,400 --> 00:28:39,640 the United States I actually had a wonderful time and Berkeley's 600 00:28:39,640 --> 00:28:41,400 making great great strides on this front. 601 00:28:41,400 --> 00:28:44,840 But many of the Ivy League universities are simply not 602 00:28:44,840 --> 00:28:47,920 reflecting the very real differences that are tearing 603 00:28:47,920 --> 00:28:50,120 America apart. And one of the primary public 604 00:28:50,160 --> 00:28:53,520 functions of university, in my view, is to inform an electorate 605 00:28:53,720 --> 00:28:57,680 and to model good disagreement on issues that reasonable 606 00:28:58,240 --> 00:29:01,240 Americans, reasonable citizens, disagree violently about, 607 00:29:01,240 --> 00:29:02,760 especially in a polarised culture. 608 00:29:02,760 --> 00:29:06,080 Right, so all. That the US can do effectively 609 00:29:06,080 --> 00:29:11,000 is say, look, we expect federal subsidy from American taxpayers 610 00:29:11,280 --> 00:29:14,600 to be spent in a way that reflects the public good and 611 00:29:14,600 --> 00:29:18,280 does not privilege an ideologically captured client 612 00:29:18,280 --> 00:29:20,680 class of American. Academic, but this is this is 613 00:29:20,680 --> 00:29:23,200 about, you said it yourself, it's about the freedom to learn, 614 00:29:23,280 --> 00:29:24,920 which is also the freedom to research. 615 00:29:25,120 --> 00:29:27,800 These institutions would say that even though they have huge 616 00:29:27,800 --> 00:29:30,880 amounts of money from the private sector, the kind of 617 00:29:30,880 --> 00:29:33,400 money they need in order to do the kind of research that has 618 00:29:33,400 --> 00:29:36,320 made American University is great, that has made America 619 00:29:36,320 --> 00:29:40,240 great, you know, into the sciences, into medicine, that 620 00:29:40,240 --> 00:29:42,520 is, that relies on federal funding. 621 00:29:42,960 --> 00:29:46,200 And when that federal funding is cut because they refuse to do 622 00:29:46,200 --> 00:29:49,520 certain things that the government asks them to do, you 623 00:29:49,520 --> 00:29:51,840 know, that's bad news for America at the end of the day, 624 00:29:51,840 --> 00:29:54,000 isn't it? I think these are very blunt 625 00:29:54,000 --> 00:29:57,240 tools, but they are maybe the only tools available to an 626 00:29:57,240 --> 00:30:02,320 administration that wants to restore American universities to 627 00:30:02,320 --> 00:30:05,360 where they were. And I haven't seen any argument 628 00:30:05,360 --> 00:30:07,520 from the left or right. What do you mean to where they 629 00:30:07,520 --> 00:30:08,280 were? What do you mean by that? 630 00:30:08,280 --> 00:30:09,080 Well. To where? 631 00:30:09,080 --> 00:30:11,280 To where? American American universities 632 00:30:11,280 --> 00:30:14,160 were at their very peak in the late 20th century. 633 00:30:14,160 --> 00:30:16,240 They were great engines of research. 634 00:30:16,240 --> 00:30:17,600 That's still great engines of research. 635 00:30:17,680 --> 00:30:21,000 If I were an American, I would want to see universities 636 00:30:21,000 --> 00:30:23,760 flourish, and I wouldn't in particular would want to see 637 00:30:23,920 --> 00:30:27,360 universities reflect to the very real debates that are happening 638 00:30:27,720 --> 00:30:30,280 off Harvard Square in Main Street America. 639 00:30:30,280 --> 00:30:33,000 And as we know, American politics is getting more and 640 00:30:33,000 --> 00:30:35,360 more polarized on a whole range of issues. 641 00:30:35,920 --> 00:30:38,000 And nobody doubts that. Trump vans. 642 00:30:38,600 --> 00:30:41,720 They were elected unambiguously back in November. 643 00:30:41,800 --> 00:30:43,680 Thank goodness. That was no doubt at all. 644 00:30:44,080 --> 00:30:48,200 Now, is it the case that every single policy action perfectly 645 00:30:48,200 --> 00:30:50,520 reflects every campaign promise? No. 646 00:30:51,000 --> 00:30:54,360 But my goodness, what politician can claim that they're able to 647 00:30:54,360 --> 00:30:56,360 do that? I think that real moral scandal 648 00:30:56,360 --> 00:30:59,360 would have been if they'd spent months and months, years and 649 00:30:59,360 --> 00:31:01,760 years and saying, we're saying we're going to bring in tariffs, 650 00:31:02,000 --> 00:31:03,520 we're going to try and sort out Ukraine. 651 00:31:03,680 --> 00:31:05,440 We're going to try and get a. And then do nothing. 652 00:31:05,520 --> 00:31:07,160 And then do absolutely nothing. That would have been a 653 00:31:07,160 --> 00:31:08,280 Democratic. Outbreak, but Donald. 654 00:31:08,280 --> 00:31:11,240 Authoritarian is saying we're simply exercising our executive. 655 00:31:11,240 --> 00:31:12,920 Authority. You can you can implement the 656 00:31:12,920 --> 00:31:14,440 will of our election. But you can live up to those 657 00:31:14,440 --> 00:31:17,240 promises, but do it in the right way and do the more nuanced way. 658 00:31:17,520 --> 00:31:20,360 You want them to be more cuddly? I can't make Donald Trump be 659 00:31:20,360 --> 00:31:23,600 more cuddly. Doctor James, Always of the 660 00:31:23,600 --> 00:31:26,040 philosophy of religion at Cambridge University, thanks 661 00:31:26,040 --> 00:31:28,160 very much for letting us talk to you in your home. 662 00:31:28,440 --> 00:31:31,120 That's it from the the special edition of the Forecast. 663 00:31:31,320 --> 00:31:31,920 Hope you enjoyed it.