1 00:00:00,040 --> 00:00:02,040 Hello and welcome to the forecast. 2 00:00:02,160 --> 00:00:05,280 So Donald Trump has opened fire on a global trade war and 3 00:00:05,280 --> 00:00:07,960 countries around the world are working out what to do. 4 00:00:08,160 --> 00:00:10,760 Even the Penguins in Antarctica must be shuffling around 5 00:00:10,760 --> 00:00:12,160 wondering what they've done to preserve it. 6 00:00:12,520 --> 00:00:17,400 The UK faces 10% on everything and 25% on cars and steel. 7 00:00:17,680 --> 00:00:20,000 So what does it mean for us? Where's this heading? 8 00:00:20,200 --> 00:00:23,440 Does economic war put us on a road to something even worse? 9 00:00:23,760 --> 00:00:26,880 With us today, the American author Robert Kaplan, whose new 10 00:00:26,880 --> 00:00:29,680 book is cheerily titled Wasteland, a World in Permanent 11 00:00:29,680 --> 00:00:33,440 Crisis, and our economics correspondent Helia Ebrahimi. 12 00:00:33,680 --> 00:00:36,200 Robert, thank you very much indeed for joining us. 13 00:00:36,200 --> 00:00:37,560 It's a. Pleasure to be here. 14 00:00:37,760 --> 00:00:40,200 Let's look at this through the prism of how you analyze where 15 00:00:40,200 --> 00:00:43,760 we are at the moment with sort of strong men, democracy in 16 00:00:43,760 --> 00:00:46,680 crisis, and where you think this is actually heading. 17 00:00:47,800 --> 00:00:54,800 Well, I think it's history shows that trade wars can lead to real 18 00:00:54,800 --> 00:01:01,000 military conflict because trade, free trade cushions the impact 19 00:01:01,000 --> 00:01:04,840 of bad relations between great powers because they have too 20 00:01:04,840 --> 00:01:09,320 much at stake economically. But if you put up economic wall 21 00:01:09,320 --> 00:01:13,560 walls, that increases the likelihood of the probability of 22 00:01:13,560 --> 00:01:16,560 the military conflict. And I'm thinking about China 23 00:01:16,760 --> 00:01:21,680 specifically because markets have priced in rather 24 00:01:21,880 --> 00:01:25,560 impressively, the Gaza war, the Ukraine war. 25 00:01:25,560 --> 00:01:28,760 Nobody notices a difference on their savings accounts when 26 00:01:28,960 --> 00:01:31,880 because of those wars, you know, to be brutal about it. 27 00:01:32,200 --> 00:01:35,960 But if there was a high end military conflict between the 28 00:01:35,960 --> 00:01:41,000 world's largest economies in the South China Sea or Taiwan, it 29 00:01:41,000 --> 00:01:44,320 would have a devastating impact on global markets. 30 00:01:44,560 --> 00:01:49,920 And by putting and starting a tariff regime does not 'cause 31 00:01:49,920 --> 00:01:54,240 that, but it increases the probability of an of something 32 00:01:54,240 --> 00:01:57,800 like that happening. Because for decades the US China 33 00:01:57,800 --> 00:02:01,560 relationship has been cushioned by trade between the two 34 00:02:01,560 --> 00:02:05,680 countries and and by the fact that each country knows that 35 00:02:05,680 --> 00:02:08,840 there's too much to lose if there was a real war. 36 00:02:09,000 --> 00:02:12,360 So that inhibits both parties. Why would that not continue to 37 00:02:12,360 --> 00:02:16,600 be the case? Well, the problem now is that if 38 00:02:16,600 --> 00:02:20,600 he's putting high tariffs on China, for instance, as an 39 00:02:20,600 --> 00:02:25,600 example, the relations go South, you know, the relations get more 40 00:02:25,600 --> 00:02:29,400 tense and you know, it's Shakespearean, you know, in 41 00:02:29,400 --> 00:02:33,040 terms of what's going on in the minds of leaders, will they, the 42 00:02:33,040 --> 00:02:36,760 Chinese just keep finished conducting a military exercise 43 00:02:36,760 --> 00:02:39,240 involving the occupation of Taiwan. 44 00:02:39,480 --> 00:02:43,720 And this comes on top of that. So you know it again, it 45 00:02:43,720 --> 00:02:48,120 increases the likelihood or the probability that that one or 46 00:02:48,120 --> 00:02:52,720 both leaders will miscalculate. And and if it is Shakespearean, 47 00:02:52,720 --> 00:02:54,280 then let's look at the characters. 48 00:02:54,280 --> 00:02:58,000 You know, if you look at Trump and Xi Jinping, yeah, how how do 49 00:02:58,000 --> 00:03:01,160 the way they are developing that? 50 00:03:01,200 --> 00:03:05,320 Trump is post literate. I didn't say illiterate. 51 00:03:05,480 --> 00:03:09,240 I say post literate. He, he can use a smartphone. 52 00:03:09,440 --> 00:03:13,640 He can he, you know, he can send social media messages, but he 53 00:03:13,640 --> 00:03:16,480 doesn't read books. He never has. 54 00:03:16,680 --> 00:03:20,920 So by not reading books, how can he know about the origins of the 55 00:03:20,920 --> 00:03:24,840 Western alliance or of the treaty alliances in the Pacific, 56 00:03:24,840 --> 00:03:27,280 which were established 80 years ago? 57 00:03:27,440 --> 00:03:30,600 It's too long for memory, for a living memory. 58 00:03:30,760 --> 00:03:33,040 So he has no appreciation of that. 59 00:03:33,200 --> 00:03:37,080 So he's reduced to like, brutal territoriality. 60 00:03:37,080 --> 00:03:39,320 And he's surrounded by people who don't tell him neither. 61 00:03:39,480 --> 00:03:43,160 Right, You know, take Greenland because it's an extension of 62 00:03:43,160 --> 00:03:46,640 North America. Make Canada subservient, take 63 00:03:46,640 --> 00:03:50,360 the Panama Canal, you know, create like a greater North 64 00:03:50,360 --> 00:03:55,680 America on on the map to compete with China and Russia, countries 65 00:03:55,680 --> 00:03:59,440 that he takes seriously. He doesn't take seriously as 66 00:03:59,440 --> 00:04:03,320 much the European Union because he sees it as weak and divided 67 00:04:04,040 --> 00:04:08,400 and has and as I said, has no appreciation for the origins of 68 00:04:08,400 --> 00:04:12,040 the Western alliance. Now Xi Jinping is, he's a 69 00:04:12,040 --> 00:04:15,760 Leninist autocrat. China has been different things 70 00:04:15,760 --> 00:04:18,640 under different leaders. It's had, you know, a 71 00:04:18,640 --> 00:04:23,760 revolutionary anarchy under Mao, a kind of Mandarin aid, a wise 72 00:04:23,760 --> 00:04:28,360 Mandarin aid under Deng Xiaoping and Zhang Zeman and Hu Jintao. 73 00:04:28,600 --> 00:04:32,320 And now it is a real hardcore Leninist where you have 74 00:04:32,320 --> 00:04:35,920 ideologues making complex financial decisions. 75 00:04:36,080 --> 00:04:41,040 Again, so much power is invested in these two men, to say nothing 76 00:04:41,040 --> 00:04:45,640 of Putin, that the chances of them to miscalculate are great. 77 00:04:46,920 --> 00:04:51,200 It's amazing how even markets which are supposed to be 78 00:04:51,200 --> 00:04:55,640 rational, supposed to be rational, are affected and have 79 00:04:55,640 --> 00:04:58,440 big downturns because of human error. 80 00:04:58,600 --> 00:05:02,720 You know I'm talking about human Shakespearean era here. 81 00:05:02,720 --> 00:05:05,040 I. Mean just on that is there? 82 00:05:05,400 --> 00:05:07,200 Is it? Is it too much of A stretch to 83 00:05:07,520 --> 00:05:09,960 say there's a little bit of Leninism in Trump as well? 84 00:05:11,400 --> 00:05:14,320 You know, in in the sense of a man who who believes in 85 00:05:14,320 --> 00:05:16,480 punishing the innocent to some degree. 86 00:05:16,480 --> 00:05:19,880 That's, that's the best way to describe Leninism. 87 00:05:19,880 --> 00:05:22,960 Don't just punish the guilty 'cause that gets you nothing. 88 00:05:23,440 --> 00:05:27,120 You have to, you have to strike fear into the hearts of the 89 00:05:27,120 --> 00:05:29,600 innocent. That way you get total control. 90 00:05:29,760 --> 00:05:31,920 That was the innovation of Leninism. 91 00:05:32,120 --> 00:05:35,280 And there's a little bit of that of Trump, but that's not really 92 00:05:35,280 --> 00:05:38,000 where he is. He's not serious enough to be a 93 00:05:38,000 --> 00:05:40,720 fascist or an ideal or a Leninist ideal. 94 00:05:41,640 --> 00:05:44,840 You know, to be a fascist or a Leninist ideologue, you have to 95 00:05:44,840 --> 00:05:47,720 read, you have to have a program, etcetera, etcetera. 96 00:05:47,720 --> 00:05:51,440 But it's quite interesting because the the economic vision 97 00:05:51,440 --> 00:05:57,760 that he has is not really in line with western modern 98 00:05:57,760 --> 00:06:00,560 economics. You know that he wants to bring 99 00:06:00,560 --> 00:06:04,440 back AUS economy that belongs to the last century. 100 00:06:04,440 --> 00:06:07,040 It's fantastic. He's saying he's doing all of 101 00:06:07,040 --> 00:06:10,360 this because workers have been disrespected. 102 00:06:10,520 --> 00:06:13,760 He he wants American workers to have respect again. 103 00:06:13,760 --> 00:06:17,120 He wants manufacturing to come back to the US. 104 00:06:17,400 --> 00:06:20,040 Now the US has really transitioned from a 105 00:06:20,040 --> 00:06:23,760 manufacturing nation to a services behemoth. 106 00:06:24,120 --> 00:06:26,120 You know does. The political problem he's got 107 00:06:26,120 --> 00:06:29,480 is workers who are worried about their jobs and worried about 108 00:06:29,480 --> 00:06:31,280 their incomes, and that's what he's playing to. 109 00:06:31,560 --> 00:06:35,400 Yeah, and he has. No, he has no concept of complex 110 00:06:35,400 --> 00:06:38,480 global supply chain. And I think that is the problem. 111 00:06:38,480 --> 00:06:42,320 And he thinks the that you are going to have these massive 112 00:06:42,320 --> 00:06:45,040 onshoring. You know, he points to, he says, 113 00:06:45,040 --> 00:06:49,600 well, look, I got Apple to promise, you know, $500 billion 114 00:06:49,640 --> 00:06:53,960 of reassuring, although poor Apple, they're getting hammered 115 00:06:53,960 --> 00:06:57,920 in the market today because despite placating Donald Trump 116 00:06:57,920 --> 00:07:01,200 and saying we're going to bring back all of these jobs to the 117 00:07:01,600 --> 00:07:03,520 US. You saw the tariffs that were 118 00:07:03,520 --> 00:07:07,840 hit not just against China, but across Asia, across Vietnam, all 119 00:07:07,840 --> 00:07:10,600 these countries. To your point, Robert, that 120 00:07:10,840 --> 00:07:15,360 created that link between these blocks, between the China block 121 00:07:15,360 --> 00:07:19,840 and the US block, allowing trade to flow the kind of back door 122 00:07:19,840 --> 00:07:23,120 through China. They've also been massively hit 123 00:07:23,120 --> 00:07:28,000 with huge, huge, huge tariffs. And I think The thing is that he 124 00:07:28,000 --> 00:07:31,880 thinks that you're in a wink of an eye going to bring back all 125 00:07:31,880 --> 00:07:35,200 of these manufacturing jobs and bring back all of this 126 00:07:35,200 --> 00:07:37,080 investment. But when you talk to companies, 127 00:07:37,080 --> 00:07:40,360 Chris, they tell you we don't even know where Donald Trump 128 00:07:40,360 --> 00:07:42,440 stands because he changes his mind so. 129 00:07:42,800 --> 00:07:44,520 We. Can't have a 10 year plan. 130 00:07:44,520 --> 00:07:47,080 Exactly. Apple. 131 00:07:47,280 --> 00:07:49,280 Poor Apple. As you said, you know it's 132 00:07:49,280 --> 00:07:51,640 supply. Chain that you say that there is 133 00:07:51,680 --> 00:07:55,080 it. Is so it's supply chain is so in 134 00:07:55,320 --> 00:08:00,000 so dependent on China, Yes that you know, when Tim Cook made 135 00:08:00,000 --> 00:08:04,680 this bet, you know, a decade and a half ago to locate in China, 136 00:08:04,680 --> 00:08:08,720 he had no idea of the character like Xi Jinping coming to power. 137 00:08:09,200 --> 00:08:12,440 So, you know, so it so it really effects them as well. 138 00:08:12,720 --> 00:08:17,680 But but they have tried to work with Trump's, you know, previous 139 00:08:17,680 --> 00:08:21,640 Trump won type of tariffs and get some of their manufacturing, 140 00:08:21,640 --> 00:08:24,680 which has happened across not just Apple, but a whole bunch of 141 00:08:24,680 --> 00:08:28,640 American companies where they've taken Chinese manufacturing and 142 00:08:28,760 --> 00:08:32,120 parked at somewhere else. And that is also in the 143 00:08:32,120 --> 00:08:35,600 crosshairs now. But you know, Trump would tell 144 00:08:35,600 --> 00:08:39,520 you, look, we've got you know, even LVMH has talking about 145 00:08:39,520 --> 00:08:41,880 beefing uppers production in the US. 146 00:08:42,200 --> 00:08:46,480 But I think to the core of the economic issue is you said 147 00:08:46,480 --> 00:08:49,200 there's a political issue because, you know, the Magas 148 00:08:49,200 --> 00:08:54,320 love those manufacturing jobs. How, how many of those jobs are 149 00:08:54,320 --> 00:08:57,720 really going to exist? Because if you are going to 150 00:08:57,720 --> 00:09:01,320 build modern factories, they are not going to be labour 151 00:09:01,320 --> 00:09:02,120 intensive. They'll. 152 00:09:02,320 --> 00:09:05,920 Be AI intensive. Exactly, they'll be AI 153 00:09:05,920 --> 00:09:08,240 intensive. So who are going to get these 154 00:09:08,240 --> 00:09:10,840 jobs? So at the moment he's because 155 00:09:10,840 --> 00:09:13,360 his argument when he stood there with his board and he said, 156 00:09:13,360 --> 00:09:16,680 well, they charge us 67%. Gotta love a man with a board. 157 00:09:16,720 --> 00:09:17,880 And, you know, and he laid it out. 158 00:09:17,880 --> 00:09:22,880 You can see why it might have seemed persuasive to some people 159 00:09:22,960 --> 00:09:26,200 who haven't yet gone to the shops and seen their prices 160 00:09:26,240 --> 00:09:28,400 going up. When is that going to happen? 161 00:09:29,840 --> 00:09:34,080 Well, look, in terms of prices, it's going to happen in the US, 162 00:09:34,560 --> 00:09:38,440 You know, it depends how much the companies pass on. 163 00:09:38,440 --> 00:09:42,120 Remember that this is a tariff. You know, we're talking about 164 00:09:42,120 --> 00:09:47,560 potentially $700 billion of tariffs that the US is going to 165 00:09:47,560 --> 00:09:51,280 collect. So is that a big win for Trump 166 00:09:51,480 --> 00:09:56,640 or is that $700 billion going to be passed on to US consumers? 167 00:09:56,640 --> 00:09:59,680 So they're going to have to pay more for car industry. 168 00:09:59,680 --> 00:10:04,640 For example, analysts think that cars at the top end will now now 169 00:10:04,640 --> 00:10:08,400 cost $10,000 plus plus plus more. 170 00:10:08,680 --> 00:10:11,960 And even at the bottom end of the car market, it's going to 171 00:10:11,960 --> 00:10:16,040 cost one or $2000 more. And it's not just that it will 172 00:10:16,040 --> 00:10:20,320 cost more, it's that people will stop buying cars. 173 00:10:20,320 --> 00:10:24,240 It's not just OK Consumers will just, you know, stump it up and 174 00:10:24,240 --> 00:10:27,120 it'll be out of their pocket. They will actually stop buying 175 00:10:27,120 --> 00:10:30,440 these products. Very few economic decisions from 176 00:10:30,440 --> 00:10:35,160 the average American consumer that have so much of symbolic 177 00:10:35,160 --> 00:10:38,360 effect on their lives. It's the price of a new car 178 00:10:38,640 --> 00:10:43,200 because many Americans now lease cars, which means they exchange 179 00:10:43,200 --> 00:10:48,080 them every three or four years. And if the lease goes up by 1000 180 00:10:48,080 --> 00:10:51,320 or $2000, that's like when the gas price goes up. 181 00:10:51,480 --> 00:10:54,880 It could change an election if the gas price goes up. 182 00:10:55,120 --> 00:10:57,640 So what? You don't, I would say, to keep 183 00:10:57,920 --> 00:11:01,760 your attention in terms of Trump's popularity as we go 184 00:11:01,760 --> 00:11:07,160 forward on the bread and butter thing like people's retirement 185 00:11:07,160 --> 00:11:10,840 savings accounts. We look at the market today, you 186 00:11:10,840 --> 00:11:14,600 know, the price of cars. Also, he's gutting the Social 187 00:11:14,600 --> 00:11:19,360 Security Department, the Health and Human Services department. 188 00:11:19,800 --> 00:11:23,360 So when consumers call up to see because there's a mistake on 189 00:11:23,360 --> 00:11:27,040 their retirement check, there's nobody to answer the phone. 190 00:11:27,040 --> 00:11:29,240 They they're on hold for five hours. 191 00:11:29,400 --> 00:11:31,960 Those are the things that change votes. 192 00:11:32,320 --> 00:11:35,080 And, and you've got, so you've got these first round effects, 193 00:11:35,080 --> 00:11:37,360 Chris, which is, you know, prices are going to go up. 194 00:11:37,360 --> 00:11:41,440 If companies don't, you know, swallow the hit and have less 195 00:11:41,440 --> 00:11:44,000 margin, they pass it on to consumers. 196 00:11:44,000 --> 00:11:47,160 And at the moment, analysts are talking about inflation going up 197 00:11:47,160 --> 00:11:48,960 to 4%. You know, that is quite 198 00:11:48,960 --> 00:11:51,240 considerable. I'm predicting a recession now. 199 00:11:51,720 --> 00:11:55,000 Predicting materially a bigger risk of recession. 200 00:11:55,000 --> 00:11:58,760 So one of one of the caveats I would say, and there's been a 201 00:11:58,760 --> 00:12:01,320 bit of chatter from the administration today is look at 202 00:12:01,320 --> 00:12:02,880 the markets. Don't look at the markets 203 00:12:02,880 --> 00:12:08,520 because we're going to give all of that money back to you, the 204 00:12:08,520 --> 00:12:11,920 US citizen through tax cuts. So I think that is an 205 00:12:11,920 --> 00:12:16,560 interesting thing to watch and will impact how you know bigger 206 00:12:16,640 --> 00:12:20,240 risk for recession there is. And tax cuts will generate a 207 00:12:20,240 --> 00:12:25,760 higher deficit, which is which is such a, you know, the the 208 00:12:25,760 --> 00:12:29,840 building the deficit is like high blood pressure. 209 00:12:29,840 --> 00:12:33,080 It's the silent killer. You know, people just it's an 210 00:12:33,080 --> 00:12:37,520 abstract mathematical story that nobody bothers to read, but it 211 00:12:37,520 --> 00:12:40,200 really impacts the health of a nation going. 212 00:12:40,320 --> 00:12:43,320 But what do they do? If they pay down U.S. 213 00:12:43,320 --> 00:12:47,160 Debt, then they definitively will have a big so their choice. 214 00:12:47,720 --> 00:12:50,080 Just to be clear, their choice is to either pay down the debt 215 00:12:50,440 --> 00:12:52,040 or to give it back to people in tax cuts. 216 00:12:52,040 --> 00:12:53,920 And what Trump said last night is we're going to give it back 217 00:12:53,920 --> 00:12:57,120 to you. And so consumers will be will be 218 00:12:57,120 --> 00:13:01,000 expecting that, but that is going to be quite challenging. 219 00:13:01,000 --> 00:13:04,160 And you've got to think, Chris, that because I was talking about 220 00:13:04,160 --> 00:13:05,880 first round and second round effects. 221 00:13:05,880 --> 00:13:09,960 So the first round, as prices go up, you people who are Trump 222 00:13:09,960 --> 00:13:13,400 voters go into their supermarket and go hang on a moment. 223 00:13:13,760 --> 00:13:16,560 I no, I don't like this. I don't want to pay more for 224 00:13:16,640 --> 00:13:18,080 buying groceries. That's not nice. 225 00:13:18,080 --> 00:13:21,320 I don't want to pay more for my cars in this field, you know, 226 00:13:21,320 --> 00:13:24,840 suddenly unhelpful. And then all of a sudden, 227 00:13:24,840 --> 00:13:29,640 businesses invest less and the economy starts to shrink. 228 00:13:29,640 --> 00:13:33,240 And that's going to happen not just in the US but, you know, 229 00:13:33,240 --> 00:13:36,760 that story of the US sneezes and the whole world catches a cold. 230 00:13:36,760 --> 00:13:40,400 It's amazing that we live in a world of so many brilliant 231 00:13:40,400 --> 00:13:46,560 financial experts and yet and yet democracy has produced 232 00:13:47,040 --> 00:13:50,280 someone who's an economic illiterate in some respects. 233 00:13:50,560 --> 00:13:53,120 So how, how do you get Robert from that? 234 00:13:53,600 --> 00:13:56,000 Because you know, the, the natural reaction to that as 235 00:13:56,000 --> 00:13:57,840 well. It's all going to go wrong quite 236 00:13:57,840 --> 00:13:59,600 quickly. Surely the American voters will 237 00:13:59,600 --> 00:14:02,880 see this and Trump will be forced either into a climb down 238 00:14:02,880 --> 00:14:06,840 or they'll be swept out of power and the world can can reset. 239 00:14:06,960 --> 00:14:10,160 Why do you not think things are going to go that well? 240 00:14:12,240 --> 00:14:13,440 I think. From your point of. 241 00:14:13,600 --> 00:14:16,320 View I think things are not going to go well. 242 00:14:17,040 --> 00:14:20,640 Remember, the president is in power in the American system for 243 00:14:20,640 --> 00:14:23,360 four years. He may lose the midterms 244 00:14:23,360 --> 00:14:27,080 dramatically, but he still has enormous power in foreign 245 00:14:27,080 --> 00:14:31,120 policy, even if he loses both houses in the midterm. 246 00:14:31,480 --> 00:14:37,080 And I think we're entering an era of real where all great 247 00:14:37,080 --> 00:14:42,400 powers are threatened. As I layout in my book, they're 248 00:14:42,440 --> 00:14:47,400 all in decline, but at different rates and in a very slow way and 249 00:14:47,400 --> 00:14:51,440 in different ways. And great powers in decline have 250 00:14:51,440 --> 00:14:54,560 a tendency to lash out and take risks. 251 00:14:54,560 --> 00:14:57,840 I mean, there's nothing more dangerous than a China where 252 00:14:57,840 --> 00:15:01,960 billions of dollars are fleeing the country and at the same time 253 00:15:01,960 --> 00:15:04,360 they're planning on invading Taiwan. 254 00:15:05,080 --> 00:15:08,680 But interesting isn't it, when we talk about kind of the 255 00:15:08,680 --> 00:15:12,840 spheres of influence that just last week you had a meeting, I 256 00:15:12,840 --> 00:15:17,200 think the first in five years between China, South Korea and 257 00:15:17,200 --> 00:15:21,880 Japan talking about trade, you know, and that is the these are 258 00:15:21,880 --> 00:15:25,080 the kind of shifting tides of what's going to go on. 259 00:15:25,640 --> 00:15:29,160 Right, There's an important point to make with that, which 260 00:15:29,160 --> 00:15:32,440 is that, you know, China is there. 261 00:15:32,440 --> 00:15:36,400 It is the geographical, economic, debt, demographic 262 00:15:36,760 --> 00:15:40,640 organizing principle of East Asia and the Western Pacific. 263 00:15:40,640 --> 00:15:45,880 America is 1/2 a world away in a real clash between the US and 264 00:15:45,880 --> 00:15:50,600 China, with the US providing its allies with less assurances than 265 00:15:50,600 --> 00:15:54,280 in previous administrations. Countries from Japan and the 266 00:15:54,280 --> 00:15:59,160 North to Australia and the South can slowly, gradually, without 267 00:15:59,160 --> 00:16:02,640 admitting it, be captured by China, you know, move in the 268 00:16:02,640 --> 00:16:06,000 direction of China. You know, to to the extent that 269 00:16:06,000 --> 00:16:09,600 Trump may be helping China created the its old tribute 270 00:16:09,600 --> 00:16:13,160 system, which is not exactly imperialism. 271 00:16:13,160 --> 00:16:15,160 It's something more subtle than that. 272 00:16:15,280 --> 00:16:16,840 Well, I mean, it's, it's, it's very interesting. 273 00:16:16,840 --> 00:16:18,840 I mean, they, they are relatively small countries to 274 00:16:18,840 --> 00:16:21,080 worry about, I suppose. But when you look at, for 275 00:16:21,080 --> 00:16:23,560 example, what's happened with Australia, yeah, you had a 276 00:16:23,560 --> 00:16:25,400 situation where the Biden administration had pulled 277 00:16:25,400 --> 00:16:27,320 Australia in. Right, exactly. 278 00:16:27,320 --> 00:16:30,400 Created orcas they were going to get nuclear powered submarines. 279 00:16:30,600 --> 00:16:33,800 Suddenly Australia is pulled away from China, yes, which is 280 00:16:33,800 --> 00:16:36,040 what, you know, it had been growing, growing, you know, 281 00:16:36,040 --> 00:16:38,960 increasingly under China cell over the last 10 years. 282 00:16:38,960 --> 00:16:41,240 But that's kind of now blown out the water because China's now 283 00:16:41,240 --> 00:16:43,120 saying these are not the actions of a friend. 284 00:16:43,440 --> 00:16:46,800 Yeah, remember, Australia had it good for decades. 285 00:16:46,800 --> 00:16:50,200 It was getting rich off China and it was protected by the US 286 00:16:50,200 --> 00:16:54,400 Navy and Air Force. So it was kind of hedging a bit 287 00:16:54,400 --> 00:16:58,080 while being in the western camp. August, as you say, you know, 288 00:16:58,080 --> 00:17:01,840 which is the treaty to provide Australia with nuclear powered 289 00:17:01,840 --> 00:17:06,560 submarines has shifted Australia to the to the to the western 290 00:17:06,560 --> 00:17:07,560 side. But some but. 291 00:17:07,599 --> 00:17:10,680 Some of this could change. This could change everything. 292 00:17:10,760 --> 00:17:14,119 But some of the kind of economic philosophy of what the Trump 293 00:17:14,119 --> 00:17:16,359 administration are doing so bizarre. 294 00:17:16,359 --> 00:17:19,640 Like you, Yeah, Lutnick today was talking about Australia. 295 00:17:19,640 --> 00:17:23,839 Well, why did you, you know, slap Australia with 10% tariffs? 296 00:17:23,839 --> 00:17:27,040 Oh, well, you know, they just buy LNG from us. 297 00:17:27,040 --> 00:17:29,840 We don't want to sell them LNG. That's what they want. 298 00:17:30,160 --> 00:17:32,240 But hang on a moment. That is not how the global 299 00:17:32,240 --> 00:17:35,160 economy works. That is how a managed economy 300 00:17:35,160 --> 00:17:37,320 works. They're so concerned about we 301 00:17:37,320 --> 00:17:40,600 want to sell our beef. We want to sell our agriculture, 302 00:17:40,760 --> 00:17:45,000 which I don't know if yes, it that will resonate, as you said, 303 00:17:45,000 --> 00:17:48,840 Chris, with a contingent of American MAGA or, you know, 304 00:17:48,920 --> 00:17:52,240 voting, but it's not all of America because they they're 305 00:17:52,240 --> 00:17:56,280 more interested in the wider, you know, U.S. economy than just 306 00:17:56,280 --> 00:17:59,200 agriculture. There is something deeper going 307 00:17:59,200 --> 00:18:03,840 on, which is this happened in the Weimar Republic, where you 308 00:18:03,840 --> 00:18:08,280 had a lot of smart people at the end who were experts. 309 00:18:08,280 --> 00:18:12,440 And all of that gets swept in. You know, it's swept gradually 310 00:18:12,440 --> 00:18:16,040 into the Nazi Party, saying things that they didn't really 311 00:18:16,040 --> 00:18:18,640 believe. But we're so interested in their 312 00:18:18,640 --> 00:18:21,680 careers in power. And we're seeing some. 313 00:18:22,480 --> 00:18:26,120 Yeah, they're enthralled by the proximity to power. 314 00:18:26,480 --> 00:18:29,400 And we're seeing some of that with people who should know 315 00:18:29,400 --> 00:18:33,640 better are saying things. Remember, Marco Rubio was in It 316 00:18:33,640 --> 00:18:36,280 was a neoconservative 12 years ago. 317 00:18:36,400 --> 00:18:39,240 Where's that gone? Yeah, that's nowhere in this in 318 00:18:39,240 --> 00:18:41,200 administration. Exactly. 319 00:18:41,200 --> 00:18:43,480 It's all about proximity to power. 320 00:18:44,360 --> 00:18:47,520 I mean, you look at these tech billionaires, that tableau of 321 00:18:47,520 --> 00:18:51,320 the inauguration. Never has there been this much 322 00:18:51,320 --> 00:18:56,320 collusion between massive wealth and political power as now where 323 00:18:56,400 --> 00:18:59,840 you take people who are worth 10s of billions of dollars. 324 00:18:59,840 --> 00:19:03,960 Yet they feel the necessity to get on their hands and knees 325 00:19:03,960 --> 00:19:07,280 before Trump, who may be broke for all for all. 326 00:19:07,280 --> 00:19:10,040 We know his finances are so complex. 327 00:19:10,040 --> 00:19:12,360 The the other thing about this that that you know, that makes 328 00:19:12,360 --> 00:19:17,040 you wonder is quite, quite a lot of the theoretical upsides are 329 00:19:17,040 --> 00:19:19,280 long term. They are not likely to 330 00:19:19,280 --> 00:19:21,240 materialize in the next two to three years. 331 00:19:21,480 --> 00:19:23,360 Yeah. So these do not look like the 332 00:19:23,360 --> 00:19:26,640 economic plans of a man or a movement who think they're going 333 00:19:26,640 --> 00:19:29,080 anywhere. Yeah, that's absolutely true. 334 00:19:29,320 --> 00:19:35,440 Trump and well, in this sense, JD Vance, who in the vice 335 00:19:35,440 --> 00:19:39,400 president, who in some respects is more extreme than Trump, when 336 00:19:39,400 --> 00:19:42,800 you actually look at his. Yeah, he really believes a lot 337 00:19:42,800 --> 00:19:47,560 of this is, you know, he's only in his mid 40s. 338 00:19:47,560 --> 00:19:50,440 He can run for president. You know, he could be a 339 00:19:50,440 --> 00:19:53,240 president for eight years. And that, you know, the, the 340 00:19:53,240 --> 00:19:57,280 Trump, the Trump, the Trump party could be in power for 12 341 00:19:57,280 --> 00:19:59,800 years. But Trump, as you said, is not 342 00:19:59,800 --> 00:20:02,200 laying the groundwork for that with this. 343 00:20:02,600 --> 00:20:05,600 But the rhetoric will be there, Chris, you know that I, I 344 00:20:05,600 --> 00:20:07,640 proved, you know, I brought these many. 345 00:20:07,640 --> 00:20:11,800 Jobs, you mean by your comparisons to Weimar and sort 346 00:20:11,800 --> 00:20:13,600 of where that really takes us with a with? 347 00:20:13,600 --> 00:20:16,480 A well, Weimar, Weimar led to Hitler. 348 00:20:16,480 --> 00:20:19,920 The the world, the United States and the world are not going to 349 00:20:19,920 --> 00:20:23,480 have another Hitler. But if you look at the look at 350 00:20:23,480 --> 00:20:28,040 the patterns of how the Weimar system, you know, ended and how 351 00:20:28,040 --> 00:20:30,840 the Remember, Hitler was very popular. 352 00:20:30,840 --> 00:20:35,240 Had he died in 1938, he would have gone down in history as a, 353 00:20:35,600 --> 00:20:39,600 you know, as a fairly popular German leader who got back lost 354 00:20:39,600 --> 00:20:43,240 territories, revived the economy and and, you know, and did 355 00:20:43,240 --> 00:20:47,920 things like that. So it's like Weimar in the sense 356 00:20:47,920 --> 00:20:51,080 that, you know, it's it's a human proclivity that people 357 00:20:51,280 --> 00:20:54,560 brilliant but are but are absolutely obsessed with their 358 00:20:54,560 --> 00:20:59,160 careers and their social position get swept into this 359 00:20:59,160 --> 00:21:01,880 wave. And I think the Lutnick comment 360 00:21:02,200 --> 00:21:06,720 is is is very symbolic of this because he should know better of 361 00:21:06,720 --> 00:21:09,320 all people. And, you know, the, the, the 362 00:21:09,320 --> 00:21:13,320 language that the administration using is that America has 363 00:21:13,320 --> 00:21:17,000 somehow been ripped off. I mean, if we've been ripping 364 00:21:17,000 --> 00:21:19,680 them off, we've not done a very good job because they're the 365 00:21:19,680 --> 00:21:23,560 wealthiest nation in the world. But that they're being abused 366 00:21:23,560 --> 00:21:27,360 that the whole global economic system is built on the back of 367 00:21:27,360 --> 00:21:30,760 ripping Americans off. This morning they were saying 368 00:21:30,760 --> 00:21:33,760 again that, you know, it's not just tariffs that are problem. 369 00:21:33,760 --> 00:21:37,840 It's all all the rules that different countries bring in, 370 00:21:37,840 --> 00:21:42,280 you know, that are barriers that somehow subsidized our national 371 00:21:42,280 --> 00:21:46,720 interests above US interests. And then that is the dragon that 372 00:21:46,720 --> 00:21:49,920 Trump and Trump's administration has to say that was not 373 00:21:49,920 --> 00:21:54,560 realistic, that kind of portrait of what's happened. 374 00:21:54,560 --> 00:21:56,840 But. There is also a logic for the 375 00:21:56,840 --> 00:21:59,120 MAGA crowd. If you look at the trade 376 00:21:59,120 --> 00:22:02,200 restrictions India imposes on America and. 377 00:22:02,200 --> 00:22:04,680 Yeah, they don't buy. They don't buy American corn, 378 00:22:04,840 --> 00:22:08,600 you know, So that's why. Or whatever it might be that you 379 00:22:08,600 --> 00:22:11,200 go, well, hang on what you know, why are we not charging 380 00:22:11,200 --> 00:22:13,840 something similar? You know that that is a 381 00:22:13,840 --> 00:22:16,520 difficult one to answer, I think, when you look at the 382 00:22:16,880 --> 00:22:18,640 protectionist policies of other countries. 383 00:22:19,960 --> 00:22:23,720 You know, one of the things that Trump realized before other 384 00:22:23,720 --> 00:22:30,320 politicians back in 2014, 2015, was that the elites, Republicans 385 00:22:30,320 --> 00:22:33,040 and Democrats were all in favor of free trade. 386 00:22:33,240 --> 00:22:38,480 And he saw how free trade was making life more difficult for 387 00:22:38,480 --> 00:22:40,920 American workers. It wasn't just jobs, 388 00:22:41,040 --> 00:22:45,040 manufacturing jobs in the northern Midwest lost to China. 389 00:22:45,520 --> 00:22:49,840 It was, it was the, you know, it was, it was other things as well 390 00:22:49,920 --> 00:22:53,360 that that, that there were less good paying jobs. 391 00:22:54,200 --> 00:22:58,760 And the states that lost the most jobs to China in 2016 were 392 00:22:58,760 --> 00:23:02,920 the states he carried by thin margins, which enabled him to 393 00:23:02,920 --> 00:23:07,320 beat Hillary Clinton. So from his perspective, he's 394 00:23:07,320 --> 00:23:10,840 been ahead of the curve when you know, when he looks back at it, 395 00:23:11,080 --> 00:23:14,480 that because he started attacking free trade before 396 00:23:14,480 --> 00:23:17,760 almost anyone did. And, and it resonates with 397 00:23:17,760 --> 00:23:19,240 voters. And I mean, in that way, it's 398 00:23:19,240 --> 00:23:22,720 quite interesting because it, you know, it, it could be a 399 00:23:22,720 --> 00:23:27,400 traditional very left wing philosophy that we need to, you 400 00:23:27,400 --> 00:23:30,800 know, that it's not a very, as you were saying, but not a very 401 00:23:30,800 --> 00:23:35,040 Republican kind of economic ideology. 402 00:23:35,040 --> 00:23:36,920 And it does resonate with people. 403 00:23:36,920 --> 00:23:39,760 You know, he's going to be able to say, look, Louisiana, I got 404 00:23:39,760 --> 00:23:44,080 Hyundai to bring steel manufacturing and invest, you 405 00:23:44,080 --> 00:23:46,880 know, six billion, 6 1/2 billion dollars there. 406 00:23:46,880 --> 00:23:50,840 That will win votes. That will bring people on side. 407 00:23:51,080 --> 00:23:55,120 But just because people, you know, it resonates with voters, 408 00:23:55,120 --> 00:23:59,440 it doesn't mean that that is an accurate reflection of the US as 409 00:23:59,440 --> 00:24:04,480 trade situation. What's happened in America is 410 00:24:04,480 --> 00:24:09,000 that there's no center anymore. You have the the the far right 411 00:24:09,560 --> 00:24:13,800 Trumpian right, not the center right of the old Republican 412 00:24:13,800 --> 00:24:16,600 Party. And you have a progressive left, 413 00:24:16,680 --> 00:24:20,080 not the center left of the old Democratic Party. 414 00:24:20,560 --> 00:24:25,320 And the center has been lost, I would argue, because of two big 415 00:24:25,320 --> 00:24:27,560 reasons. You can name 20, but I'll name 416 00:24:27,560 --> 00:24:32,520 21 is globalization has split American Society down the 417 00:24:32,520 --> 00:24:35,560 middle. It's it's created a globalized, 418 00:24:35,560 --> 00:24:41,480 cosmopolitan, multilingual wine sipping class of people dreaming 419 00:24:41,480 --> 00:24:45,200 of European vacations and stuff. And then there's the other half 420 00:24:45,200 --> 00:24:49,200 that has been left behind in the old nation state in the fly over 421 00:24:49,200 --> 00:24:52,080 states of Kansas and Nebraska and etcetera. 422 00:24:52,240 --> 00:24:56,960 So globalization divided America as it has some other countries 423 00:24:56,960 --> 00:24:58,760 as well. I mean, there was a bit of this 424 00:24:58,760 --> 00:25:02,160 in Brexit. And the other thing I would 425 00:25:02,160 --> 00:25:04,640 mention is the change in the media environment. 426 00:25:04,840 --> 00:25:09,080 America was a great mass democracy in what I call the 427 00:25:09,080 --> 00:25:13,880 print and typewriter era when people got their news from 428 00:25:13,880 --> 00:25:18,480 centrist and their and you know, got not only got their news, but 429 00:25:18,480 --> 00:25:22,960 their whole outlook on the world from centrist Fact Check, 430 00:25:22,960 --> 00:25:28,000 professionally written long, you know, long articles and 431 00:25:28,000 --> 00:25:32,480 newspapers that provided people with complexity and context that 432 00:25:32,480 --> 00:25:36,160 they could understand. The digital video era has erased 433 00:25:36,160 --> 00:25:38,600 that. It's created a social media 434 00:25:38,600 --> 00:25:43,480 environment of passion, ideology and simplicity. 435 00:25:43,640 --> 00:25:47,600 Simplistic narrative, so and. Trump rise that very well, yeah, 436 00:25:47,600 --> 00:25:49,080 but the genie is out of the bottle now, isn't it? 437 00:25:49,080 --> 00:25:49,880 You can't. You can't put. 438 00:25:49,880 --> 00:25:52,840 That no, you can't put that. And what that goes with also is 439 00:25:52,840 --> 00:25:56,520 the hollowing out of of the of the American bureaucracy, which 440 00:25:56,520 --> 00:25:57,840 Trump is sort of slashing and burning. 441 00:25:58,040 --> 00:26:02,320 And and that is really weakening US power, the hollowing out of 442 00:26:02,320 --> 00:26:06,720 the bureaucracy, because what we see of American foreign policy 443 00:26:06,720 --> 00:26:09,320 is like an iceberg. You see the top, you don't see 444 00:26:09,320 --> 00:26:12,040 everything's underwater, everything that's underwater. 445 00:26:12,200 --> 00:26:16,520 And what's underwater is the 10s of thousands of foreign service 446 00:26:16,520 --> 00:26:20,840 officers working in complex, troubled countries like 447 00:26:20,840 --> 00:26:25,640 Pakistan, Nigeria, Colombia, etcetera, etcetera, who are 448 00:26:25,640 --> 00:26:30,200 solving crises on a daily basis so that they never reach up to 449 00:26:30,200 --> 00:26:34,600 the newspapers. It's amazing what the US Foreign 450 00:26:34,600 --> 00:26:38,560 Service accomplishes, keeping the world at Bay so that the 451 00:26:38,560 --> 00:26:42,080 president only has to deal with the three or four top foreign 452 00:26:42,080 --> 00:26:46,360 policy issues on a daily basis. And Trump is hollowing this out. 453 00:26:46,360 --> 00:26:49,280 What what do you think in terms of the geopolitics happens to 454 00:26:49,640 --> 00:26:53,640 Britain, Europe, the sort of the medium sized players, if you 455 00:26:53,640 --> 00:26:54,800 like? We're not superpowers, we're 456 00:26:54,800 --> 00:26:57,480 never going to be. And we're trying to sort of find 457 00:26:57,480 --> 00:27:00,360 a role in this, in this new world. 458 00:27:00,360 --> 00:27:03,760 And Britain sort of sees its role as sort of convening, 459 00:27:04,080 --> 00:27:07,600 trying to be the glue, trying to be a sort of a a player that 460 00:27:07,600 --> 00:27:11,000 sort of punches above its weight and size. 461 00:27:11,960 --> 00:27:13,880 Does that get anywhere in this new? 462 00:27:14,240 --> 00:27:19,360 For so many decades, Europe less so Britain, less so France. 463 00:27:19,360 --> 00:27:22,920 But Europe has has been in a state of dependency on the 464 00:27:22,920 --> 00:27:28,000 United States for its security and that's lasted 80 years and 465 00:27:28,000 --> 00:27:32,840 80 years is a long time, you know, And so getting its act 466 00:27:32,840 --> 00:27:37,200 together to, you know, to produce a military, you know, a 467 00:27:37,200 --> 00:27:40,120 capable your pan European military. 468 00:27:40,280 --> 00:27:43,000 It's not just a matter of budget procurements. 469 00:27:43,160 --> 00:27:46,560 It's a matter of a mentality of producing a military that 470 00:27:46,560 --> 00:27:51,240 actually fights, not just like Aun toy soul soldiers in 471 00:27:51,240 --> 00:27:54,440 southern Lebanon, you know? So that I think that's the 472 00:27:54,520 --> 00:27:59,240 Silver Linings argument is could everything that Trump is doing 473 00:27:59,600 --> 00:28:02,360 all, are there some repercussions that could be 474 00:28:02,360 --> 00:28:07,920 positive in terms of defence? Has it catalysed Europe to do 475 00:28:07,920 --> 00:28:10,920 what it should have done a very long time ago? 476 00:28:11,240 --> 00:28:14,520 Does it catalysed Europe to think economically very 477 00:28:14,520 --> 00:28:17,880 differently? We had the Dragu report a while 478 00:28:17,880 --> 00:28:20,240 ago saying Europe was inefficient. 479 00:28:20,480 --> 00:28:24,120 Maybe, maybe this is an opportunity to say what can we 480 00:28:24,120 --> 00:28:28,720 do to be a kind of economic force of the next century? 481 00:28:28,720 --> 00:28:33,680 You know, you think about kind of American hegemony, and a lot 482 00:28:33,680 --> 00:28:36,560 of it has been through the big tech companies. 483 00:28:36,760 --> 00:28:39,360 Something that has SAT politically a little bit 484 00:28:39,360 --> 00:28:43,680 uncomfortably with Europe is now the moment where the economics 485 00:28:43,920 --> 00:28:46,400 and the politics work side by side. 486 00:28:46,400 --> 00:28:47,520 But this? Is where I think this is 487 00:28:47,520 --> 00:28:51,360 slightly sort of fairy land because in your argument and all 488 00:28:51,360 --> 00:28:53,680 the great powers are in decline. Yeah. 489 00:28:53,680 --> 00:28:56,800 And the truth is so, so, so are the medium sized and small ones. 490 00:28:57,000 --> 00:29:00,040 There's there's nobody really in the ascendancy in this, in this 491 00:29:00,040 --> 00:29:04,600 world is that. I don't see it the the 1 silver 492 00:29:04,600 --> 00:29:08,080 lining that I see that's going to happen over the next five 493 00:29:08,080 --> 00:29:10,480 years and it's a region wide thing. 494 00:29:10,480 --> 00:29:15,720 It's not a global wide thing is I think that of all places that 495 00:29:15,720 --> 00:29:20,680 can have a democratic trending upheaval and get rid of a tired 496 00:29:20,760 --> 00:29:25,840 regime, it's Iran. And Iran has 85 million people 497 00:29:25,840 --> 00:29:29,720 highly educated waiting to be unleashed into the global 498 00:29:29,720 --> 00:29:33,520 economy. And I think Iran is at the end 499 00:29:33,520 --> 00:29:37,520 of what will go down in Persian history is the most destructive 500 00:29:37,720 --> 00:29:43,080 tragic regime in, in, you know, in, in, in memory and that. 501 00:29:43,080 --> 00:29:46,280 And if Iran changes, the whole Middle East change. 502 00:29:46,280 --> 00:29:48,960 Well, there's some speculation that that that might also be 503 00:29:48,960 --> 00:29:51,600 what Trump has in the mind as well. 504 00:29:51,600 --> 00:29:54,480 That's, you know, that sort of military action on Iran. 505 00:29:54,480 --> 00:29:58,040 Well, I'm not talking about a military action because of 506 00:29:58,040 --> 00:30:01,080 country of 85,000,000. You're not going to invade and 507 00:30:01,080 --> 00:30:03,600 dominate. I'm talking about an internally 508 00:30:03,600 --> 00:30:07,480 driven upheaval that is very possible. 509 00:30:07,480 --> 00:30:10,200 Remember, Iran is the land of demonstrations. 510 00:30:10,360 --> 00:30:13,320 They demonstrate all the. Demonstrations that have been 511 00:30:13,320 --> 00:30:15,640 brutally. Suppressed, but it's But we 512 00:30:15,640 --> 00:30:19,880 haven't had a big wave of demonstrations since the 513 00:30:19,880 --> 00:30:23,400 Israelis attacked Iran, since Hezbollah has been virtually 514 00:30:23,400 --> 00:30:27,440 destroyed, since Hamas has been virtually destroyed, the the 515 00:30:27,440 --> 00:30:31,080 regime is perceived to be in a much weaker and more vulnerable 516 00:30:31,080 --> 00:30:35,320 position than it was before. At some point, demonstrations 517 00:30:35,320 --> 00:30:36,680 may topple. Robert, you're both 518 00:30:36,680 --> 00:30:41,720 simultaneously very positive and actually out glooming me on the 519 00:30:41,720 --> 00:30:44,480 global economy. I mean, I, I, I think there is 520 00:30:44,480 --> 00:30:48,080 chance for Europe to collect itself. 521 00:30:48,080 --> 00:30:52,480 You know, these these are moments where big leaders, big 522 00:30:52,480 --> 00:30:55,960 thinkers can make a difference. Look at the German economy and 523 00:30:55,960 --> 00:30:59,040 the two big assumptions they made, which was that we will 524 00:30:59,040 --> 00:31:03,800 have US security forever and ever and we will be able to rely 525 00:31:03,800 --> 00:31:06,520 on Russian energy forever and ever. 526 00:31:06,520 --> 00:31:09,440 That was a mistake. That is not the new world. 527 00:31:09,720 --> 00:31:13,480 But we are in an environment where technology is changing. 528 00:31:13,480 --> 00:31:15,440 Look at what's happening with AI. 529 00:31:15,960 --> 00:31:19,240 You know, US search is not necessarily dominant. 530 00:31:19,440 --> 00:31:22,760 Look at what DeepSeek is doing. It shows that there is a 531 00:31:22,760 --> 00:31:26,560 potential, the shift, the the kind of technological. 532 00:31:26,560 --> 00:31:30,000 I know you're saying this is all fairy and we haven't done it, 533 00:31:30,000 --> 00:31:34,040 Europe hasn't managed to do it yet, but that is because it was 534 00:31:34,040 --> 00:31:37,800 only a political ambition. And what I'm saying is there is 535 00:31:37,800 --> 00:31:41,120 now an opportunity where you say if your back is against the 536 00:31:41,120 --> 00:31:45,760 wall, all these decisions suddenly become more attractive 537 00:31:45,760 --> 00:31:47,600 to investment. My fear is that it's all 538 00:31:47,600 --> 00:31:50,480 different levels of negative, you know, and, and, and that 539 00:31:50,600 --> 00:31:54,520 that none of this is really, you know, there are no winners here. 540 00:31:54,680 --> 00:31:56,800 This is all. Just Mark Carney might disagree 541 00:31:56,800 --> 00:31:59,080 with you. Well, he would, but I mean, he's 542 00:31:59,600 --> 00:32:01,440 well, yeah. We'll look at the position 543 00:32:01,440 --> 00:32:07,720 they're in and you know, when it comes to do doing deals now with 544 00:32:07,720 --> 00:32:09,320 Trump, if that, you know, Britain's going to try and 545 00:32:09,320 --> 00:32:11,440 improve its position. There is no win. 546 00:32:11,720 --> 00:32:13,440 It's just different degrees of cost. 547 00:32:13,640 --> 00:32:16,800 We're going to either lose tax revenue by giving it back to the 548 00:32:16,800 --> 00:32:18,400 tech Bros. We're going to flood our markets 549 00:32:18,400 --> 00:32:19,840 with American agricultural goods. 550 00:32:20,040 --> 00:32:22,760 You know there is nothing good that comes out of this. 551 00:32:22,800 --> 00:32:25,120 What if it what if it's closer relation? 552 00:32:25,120 --> 00:32:30,200 What if it is to catalyse us to have closer ties to Europe? 553 00:32:30,480 --> 00:32:33,120 And that, that I'm not, I'm not disagreeing with you, but the 554 00:32:33,120 --> 00:32:35,160 reality is that Trump is empowered. 555 00:32:35,160 --> 00:32:37,520 This is these are the actions he's taking. 556 00:32:37,520 --> 00:32:41,600 I think it's up to the world to respond in a way and think of 557 00:32:41,600 --> 00:32:45,000 where are the opportunities. Just finally, I mean, you know, 558 00:32:45,000 --> 00:32:50,280 if you think that you know the these dips, you know, if this is 559 00:32:50,280 --> 00:32:54,960 a vimar period, the response will eventually be to turn 560 00:32:54,960 --> 00:32:57,280 around and rebuild institutions and rebuild democracy. 561 00:32:58,320 --> 00:33:03,200 Can that be done without, you know, a horrific dip first, You 562 00:33:03,200 --> 00:33:06,720 know, a terrible war, You know, a terrible calamity, terrible 563 00:33:06,720 --> 00:33:08,960 economic crisis? Well, one would hope. 564 00:33:08,960 --> 00:33:12,280 But what often happens is things have to get worse before they 565 00:33:12,280 --> 00:33:16,000 get better until, until the, you know, America is a mass 566 00:33:16,000 --> 00:33:19,560 democracy still, even though Trump is taking a hatchet to 567 00:33:19,560 --> 00:33:23,480 institutions, but it is a mass democracy still. 568 00:33:23,600 --> 00:33:27,040 And until Americans feel the pain more, there's going to be 569 00:33:27,040 --> 00:33:32,200 no curtailing effect on Trump's on Trump's actions. 570 00:33:33,280 --> 00:33:35,480 Robert Kaplan, Helia, thank you very much indeed. 571 00:33:36,000 --> 00:33:37,840 That's it for this edition of the FORECAST. 572 00:33:37,840 --> 00:33:39,000 Until next time, bye bye.