1 00:00:00,160 --> 00:00:01,960 Hello and welcome to the forecast. 2 00:00:02,080 --> 00:00:05,520 Donald Trump, back in the White House, is blasting out news like 3 00:00:05,520 --> 00:00:08,360 a fire hydrant. How does Keir Starmer, how does 4 00:00:08,360 --> 00:00:12,000 Europe deal with him and how should they deal particularly 5 00:00:12,000 --> 00:00:16,000 with these outpourings? To discuss this, I'm joined by 6 00:00:16,000 --> 00:00:19,280 two journalists who've dabbled in politics, Michael Gove, 7 00:00:19,280 --> 00:00:22,040 editor of The Spectator and a cabinet minister under 4 8 00:00:22,040 --> 00:00:24,880 Conservative prime ministers. Tom Baldwin, who worked for Ed 9 00:00:24,880 --> 00:00:27,240 Miliband when he was Labour leader and for the campaign for 10 00:00:27,240 --> 00:00:31,960 a second referendum on the EU parked for now, I think he's the 11 00:00:31,960 --> 00:00:35,560 biographer of Keir Starmer and also in the studio. 12 00:00:35,560 --> 00:00:38,720 I hope that's all right, Michael, an expert, the head of 13 00:00:38,720 --> 00:00:42,800 the Europe program at Chatham House, Amila van Rai, thank you 14 00:00:42,800 --> 00:00:46,120 all for joining us. And I think probably as we're 15 00:00:46,120 --> 00:00:49,680 talking about the bow wave from President Trump, let's start 16 00:00:49,680 --> 00:00:54,720 with you, Michael, as someone who's met him, as you've 17 00:00:54,720 --> 00:00:58,600 observed these first few interventions, probably many 18 00:00:58,600 --> 00:01:01,680 more to come from the White House. 19 00:01:02,600 --> 00:01:06,800 How much do you think Donald Trump genuinely knows when he 20 00:01:06,800 --> 00:01:08,680 says something? We've obviously just been 21 00:01:08,680 --> 00:01:11,280 hearing about Gaza, but we've also been hearing about tariffs, 22 00:01:11,840 --> 00:01:16,840 Greenland, much else besides, How much does he have a clear 23 00:01:16,840 --> 00:01:22,240 idea in his head about where he truly wants to go, any sort of 24 00:01:22,240 --> 00:01:24,880 strategy? What's your sense of him from 25 00:01:24,880 --> 00:01:27,360 meetings, from what you've seen? I think he does. 26 00:01:27,800 --> 00:01:30,200 There's an old trope about Donald Trump that you shouldn't 27 00:01:30,200 --> 00:01:32,200 take him literally, but you should take him seriously. 28 00:01:32,680 --> 00:01:35,200 I think that sometimes there'll be rhetorical excesses. 29 00:01:35,200 --> 00:01:38,560 Sometimes he can't help himself. Sometimes it will seem as 30 00:01:38,560 --> 00:01:42,720 though, you know, when past diplomats would have, you know, 31 00:01:42,800 --> 00:01:45,840 found themselves going through the UN, the WTO and the EU. 32 00:01:46,000 --> 00:01:49,360 It sounds as though he's on MDMA when he's speaking. 33 00:01:49,360 --> 00:01:54,840 But at the heart of it, there is a broad strategic view, and that 34 00:01:54,840 --> 00:01:59,720 broad strategic view is that America has been suckered for 35 00:01:59,720 --> 00:02:03,560 too long, that America is a Gulliver that has been tied down 36 00:02:03,560 --> 00:02:04,840 by those international institutes. 37 00:02:04,840 --> 00:02:06,960 But that's a broadview. That's not that's not telling us 38 00:02:06,960 --> 00:02:10,280 that when he says something specific, there is definitely a 39 00:02:10,280 --> 00:02:13,960 plan behind it. There I think there is a plan. 40 00:02:13,960 --> 00:02:17,640 I think that some of the manifestations of that plan may 41 00:02:17,640 --> 00:02:23,680 backfire, but overall that plan is to have a a realist, a 42 00:02:23,680 --> 00:02:29,040 realpolitik view in which America having been held back by 43 00:02:29,040 --> 00:02:32,440 international law, having been held back by the institutions 44 00:02:32,440 --> 00:02:36,640 that it was paying for, as he sees it, NATO and the the UN in 45 00:02:36,640 --> 00:02:41,520 particular, now it is time for America to assert its own 46 00:02:41,520 --> 00:02:45,760 interests and in so doing, respond to a particular threat, 47 00:02:45,760 --> 00:02:48,000 as he perceives it, from China and its allies. 48 00:02:48,600 --> 00:02:51,600 I mean, the European leaders have had their first taste of 49 00:02:51,720 --> 00:02:55,640 Trump second time round. Do you get a sense how much of 50 00:02:55,640 --> 00:02:59,640 the headspace he's been occupying these 2 1/2 weeks? 51 00:02:59,640 --> 00:03:02,840 How much? How much they give credit to 52 00:03:02,880 --> 00:03:06,560 what he's saying? How much they credit him with a 53 00:03:06,560 --> 00:03:10,640 plan when he opens his mouth. I mean, he's probably taking up 54 00:03:10,640 --> 00:03:14,400 more headspace than he should. And that's because Europe, as we 55 00:03:14,400 --> 00:03:17,840 know, has got huge challenges in terms of Russia's war in Ukraine 56 00:03:17,840 --> 00:03:20,240 on the border, in terms of competitiveness. 57 00:03:20,920 --> 00:03:24,400 These are really quite serious structural issues. 58 00:03:24,760 --> 00:03:27,800 And yet Europe is trying to figure out how to respond to 59 00:03:27,800 --> 00:03:29,480 Trump, who wants to invade Greenland. 60 00:03:29,880 --> 00:03:33,120 That's not a constructive or productive use of time, yet 61 00:03:33,120 --> 00:03:36,040 that's where we are. Tom, I'd like to ask you, 62 00:03:36,040 --> 00:03:41,440 because you wrote Keir Starmer's biography, how you think he's 63 00:03:41,440 --> 00:03:43,920 going to cope. We know his current plan in 64 00:03:43,920 --> 00:03:48,640 terms of how he deals with Donald Trump's utterances. 65 00:03:49,160 --> 00:03:51,880 Zip it. Basically pause, try and think 66 00:03:52,160 --> 00:03:54,680 if it's real. Try and think if there's 67 00:03:54,680 --> 00:03:57,440 something behind it that he's really getting at some other 68 00:03:57,440 --> 00:03:59,080 trade you can do. That seems to be. 69 00:03:59,080 --> 00:04:01,760 I mean, I'm told that's exactly the plan. 70 00:04:01,760 --> 00:04:04,160 Can you hold to it? Do you think the Keir Starmer 71 00:04:04,160 --> 00:04:07,000 that you've studied in got to know? 72 00:04:07,280 --> 00:04:09,160 I think one thing you're definitely going to get from 73 00:04:09,160 --> 00:04:11,480 Keir Starmer is an absence of posture. 74 00:04:12,200 --> 00:04:17,120 He's not going to be striking a position to please the crowd, to 75 00:04:17,120 --> 00:04:19,079 please his party, to please the press. 76 00:04:19,880 --> 00:04:23,520 He's going to look for that little space, that ambiguity, 77 00:04:23,520 --> 00:04:27,040 that nuance where you can find a consensus. 78 00:04:27,360 --> 00:04:30,760 Now, that won't always be elegant, but it's probably the 79 00:04:30,760 --> 00:04:32,720 best way to pursue the national interest. 80 00:04:33,560 --> 00:04:35,960 And he's a he's a very restrained guy. 81 00:04:35,960 --> 00:04:38,680 Must have been quite a difficult biography to write in some ways, 82 00:04:38,920 --> 00:04:40,800 but he must have little trip wires himself. 83 00:04:40,800 --> 00:04:47,360 We watched him when Elon Musk was showering abuse online on 84 00:04:47,720 --> 00:04:50,800 him, on his government, on much else to do with Britain. 85 00:04:51,280 --> 00:04:55,400 And it seemed to say the trip wire was when Elon Musk went for 86 00:04:55,400 --> 00:04:58,400 Jess Phillips. And I mean, I just wonder, could 87 00:04:58,400 --> 00:05:01,520 there be other trip wires there for him with with Donald Trump? 88 00:05:01,520 --> 00:05:04,320 He'll go too far on something and he'll just feel the pressure 89 00:05:04,320 --> 00:05:06,400 from within. And we could put the one side, 90 00:05:06,400 --> 00:05:08,200 the pressure from the party, which could be immense on some 91 00:05:08,200 --> 00:05:09,720 issues. You feel he's got to respond. 92 00:05:10,040 --> 00:05:13,080 There there will be moments where they have to disagree. 93 00:05:13,080 --> 00:05:15,720 I mean, he's already effectively disagreed about, you know, the 94 00:05:15,720 --> 00:05:19,720 plan to turn Gaza Strip into into the Riviera of the Middle 95 00:05:19,720 --> 00:05:20,600 East. You know, he said that 96 00:05:20,600 --> 00:05:22,280 Palestinians must be allowed to go home. 97 00:05:22,560 --> 00:05:25,640 He doesn't necessarily do it from by a position of shouting 98 00:05:25,640 --> 00:05:29,080 or, you know, doing a sort of Hugh Grant and love. 99 00:05:29,080 --> 00:05:32,360 Actually, he will make his case in the right way. 100 00:05:32,720 --> 00:05:35,120 I think he's probably done better than most other 101 00:05:35,200 --> 00:05:39,280 Democratic leaders in preparing for and dealing with Trump so 102 00:05:39,280 --> 00:05:40,640 far. It is difficult. 103 00:05:40,640 --> 00:05:43,200 But the way he dealt with Elon Musk was interesting because he 104 00:05:43,200 --> 00:05:45,680 was being attacked and he just wrote it out. 105 00:05:46,360 --> 00:05:48,920 There's no point getting interest back with Elon Musk. 106 00:05:49,280 --> 00:05:51,960 It's much easier to do it if you're defending somebody else. 107 00:05:51,960 --> 00:05:55,400 If you're defending coming to the aid of a of ministerial 108 00:05:55,400 --> 00:05:58,920 colleague, then, you know, bleating about how how unfair it 109 00:05:58,920 --> 00:06:01,320 is that you're being portrayed by Elon Musk in this horrible 110 00:06:01,320 --> 00:06:02,800 way. So I think you're finding the 111 00:06:02,800 --> 00:06:06,240 right vehicle and the right moment is very important for 112 00:06:06,240 --> 00:06:08,960 him. The first big round that 113 00:06:08,960 --> 00:06:13,480 Europe's had to contest with is the the threat of tariffs from 114 00:06:13,920 --> 00:06:17,440 President Trump. What's your sense of how they 115 00:06:17,440 --> 00:06:18,760 measured this? They've watched what happened to 116 00:06:18,760 --> 00:06:20,080 Canada. They've watched what happened to 117 00:06:20,080 --> 00:06:25,000 Mexico. Do they think with them it could 118 00:06:25,000 --> 00:06:28,920 similarly be transactional or could it be actually different? 119 00:06:28,920 --> 00:06:33,680 Nigel Farage was saying yesterday he he thinks Donald 120 00:06:33,680 --> 00:06:35,800 Trump has a different plan for Europe, which is basically to 121 00:06:35,800 --> 00:06:41,600 put a tariff all there for good. I think what Trump seemed so, so 122 00:06:41,600 --> 00:06:44,520 we know that Trump doesn't like the EU as a set of institutions. 123 00:06:45,680 --> 00:06:49,360 What I think we'll we'll see is countries who try to 124 00:06:49,360 --> 00:06:51,840 bilateralize their, I don't think that's a word, but go for 125 00:06:51,840 --> 00:06:54,320 the bilateral relationship. Here's a word now. 126 00:06:54,600 --> 00:06:57,560 There we go with Trump, rather than going through the EU, 127 00:06:57,560 --> 00:07:01,760 because they might try to hedge in their own national interest 128 00:07:01,760 --> 00:07:04,880 or how they see it in their own national interest, because they 129 00:07:04,880 --> 00:07:07,240 know that Trump doesn't like the EUI think with Trump the 130 00:07:07,240 --> 00:07:09,840 difficulty is you don't know where he's going to stop. 131 00:07:09,840 --> 00:07:12,440 So you might give him something, but he will go further and he'll 132 00:07:12,440 --> 00:07:15,520 come back. We're seeing this already with 133 00:07:15,760 --> 00:07:18,000 some of the Baltic states who announced that they would raise 134 00:07:18,000 --> 00:07:20,640 their defence spending to 5%, which is exactly what Trump has 135 00:07:20,640 --> 00:07:23,400 called for. the US doesn't spend 5% on defence. 136 00:07:23,600 --> 00:07:26,000 Doesn't matter. Trump has made the call. 137 00:07:26,160 --> 00:07:28,600 The Baltic states, who are tiny and on the border with Russia, 138 00:07:28,600 --> 00:07:31,520 have responded. Now, in terms of what this means 139 00:07:31,520 --> 00:07:36,000 for the EU, that's obviously a huge issue if Trump is picking 140 00:07:36,000 --> 00:07:40,080 off countries 1 by 1, um, because that undermines EU 141 00:07:40,080 --> 00:07:42,040 unity. And what we've also seen under 142 00:07:42,040 --> 00:07:45,280 Trump's first term, when, uh, Juncker was still commissioned 143 00:07:45,280 --> 00:07:49,720 president, is that actually he was to some extent somewhat able 144 00:07:49,720 --> 00:07:53,600 to, um, talk about to use trade diplomacy as an effective tool 145 00:07:53,600 --> 00:07:55,840 to stave off some of the worst consequences of potential 146 00:07:55,840 --> 00:07:58,160 tariffs. Some people think he played 147 00:07:58,160 --> 00:08:00,080 Donald Trump quite well. Yes. 148 00:08:00,440 --> 00:08:03,640 And he had a reputation as a man who couldn't always manage the 149 00:08:03,640 --> 00:08:06,560 stairs, Jean Claude Juncker. But he he seemed to on this one, 150 00:08:07,000 --> 00:08:08,760 people give him full marks. Yes, exactly. 151 00:08:08,760 --> 00:08:11,040 And of course Wanderlein hasn't had experience with Trump 152 00:08:11,040 --> 00:08:14,200 directly just yet, I think. No. 153 00:08:14,200 --> 00:08:15,960 Well, she did at the end of his second term. 154 00:08:15,960 --> 00:08:16,760 Didn't. Yes. 155 00:08:16,880 --> 00:08:19,760 Yeah, a slight slide over, but we know he doesn't like women. 156 00:08:19,760 --> 00:08:22,080 We know he doesn't like the EU, so she's going to have a harder 157 00:08:22,240 --> 00:08:25,320 ride on that front. I think what is quite clear, you 158 00:08:25,320 --> 00:08:27,680 know, the Commission has been preparing for months at this 159 00:08:27,680 --> 00:08:29,920 point, so they have a clear sense of what their offer will 160 00:08:29,920 --> 00:08:34,400 be and how they will retaliate if if things do escalate in that 161 00:08:34,400 --> 00:08:36,760 way. But I guess the question is, 162 00:08:36,760 --> 00:08:39,480 does Trump care? And I don't know that he does, 163 00:08:39,480 --> 00:08:43,120 ultimately. Michael, Donald Trump pretty 164 00:08:43,120 --> 00:08:46,040 much said in the run up to this election that tariffs were a 165 00:08:46,040 --> 00:08:48,480 religion. The most beautiful word in the 166 00:08:48,480 --> 00:08:51,960 English language. Exactly, and you were clearly in 167 00:08:51,960 --> 00:08:54,720 the room with him for quite a long time by the picked up some 168 00:08:54,720 --> 00:08:59,360 of his traits. Is it though, or is this 169 00:08:59,360 --> 00:09:05,520 actually a ploy the the the building developers shimmy is, I 170 00:09:05,600 --> 00:09:07,800 mean the the external Revenue Service, is that really going to 171 00:09:07,800 --> 00:09:10,200 replace the Internal Revenue Service? 172 00:09:10,400 --> 00:09:15,920 The the the Trump loves tariffs, and his interest in politics was 173 00:09:15,920 --> 00:09:18,600 particularly provoked in the in the 1980s by what he believed 174 00:09:18,600 --> 00:09:21,280 was the taking of America's economy by Japan then, rather 175 00:09:21,280 --> 00:09:23,280 than China. He's got a very transactional, 176 00:09:23,280 --> 00:09:27,400 very mercantilist view of trade and of power overall, and 177 00:09:27,400 --> 00:09:29,600 tariffs for him serve 3 purposes. 178 00:09:29,760 --> 00:09:33,280 So there's the the negotiating tool, as we've seen with Mexico 179 00:09:33,280 --> 00:09:35,400 and Canada. So the tariff is a cudgel and 180 00:09:35,400 --> 00:09:37,840 indeed it was used towards Colombia in order to make sure 181 00:09:37,840 --> 00:09:40,840 that he could send Colombian migrants back there. 182 00:09:41,200 --> 00:09:43,280 Then there's the tariff as an economic tool. 183 00:09:43,280 --> 00:09:46,480 And what he wants to do is to effectively create a pro 184 00:09:46,480 --> 00:09:49,440 American trade bloc to rival what he sees as China's. 185 00:09:49,720 --> 00:09:52,760 And then the third one, exactly as you say, is as a revenue 186 00:09:52,760 --> 00:09:56,080 generator. In the past, in the 19th 187 00:09:56,080 --> 00:09:59,960 century, America levied most of the the money that it needed for 188 00:09:59,960 --> 00:10:04,200 a federal purposes from external tariffs rather than from income 189 00:10:04,200 --> 00:10:06,920 tax. And in Trump's utopia, 190 00:10:07,360 --> 00:10:09,760 reactionary utopia, that is the way to go. 191 00:10:10,320 --> 00:10:12,080 A. Lot of people watching the way 192 00:10:12,080 --> 00:10:15,480 he did dealt with Mexico and Mexico and Canada would think 193 00:10:15,480 --> 00:10:18,400 actually, no, it's it's, it isn't a real greed. 194 00:10:18,400 --> 00:10:20,200 It is simply a bargaining check. What's wrong? 195 00:10:20,480 --> 00:10:22,760 He sees them in different ways, so he will deploy them 196 00:10:23,040 --> 00:10:24,560 interchangeably for different purposes. 197 00:10:24,800 --> 00:10:26,680 And there's a piece in this week's Spectator, if you'll 198 00:10:26,800 --> 00:10:30,840 forgive the plug, by an economist called Oren Cass, who 199 00:10:30,840 --> 00:10:33,480 runs a think tank called American Compass, which is a pro 200 00:10:33,480 --> 00:10:36,280 tariff, pro Trump broadly think tank. 201 00:10:36,480 --> 00:10:40,320 And in it, Orencast outlines the way in which one of the reasons 202 00:10:40,320 --> 00:10:43,520 why Trump likes tariffs is that they can serve different 203 00:10:43,520 --> 00:10:47,000 purposes at different times. And also he loves the fact 204 00:10:47,000 --> 00:10:49,160 they're transgressive. You know, there's there's sort 205 00:10:49,160 --> 00:10:53,160 of taboo around them that that post war history has been 206 00:10:53,160 --> 00:10:55,120 apparently in the direction of freer trade. 207 00:10:55,280 --> 00:10:58,160 And now he's standing afought history and saying stop. 208 00:10:58,480 --> 00:11:01,760 What marks do you give Keir Starmer so far in the way he's 209 00:11:01,760 --> 00:11:06,120 been handling Trump? I think to be fair, Starmer's 210 00:11:06,120 --> 00:11:09,760 handled things very well. By all accounts, Keir Starmer's 211 00:11:09,960 --> 00:11:11,520 favorite Labour leader was Harold Wilson. 212 00:11:12,160 --> 00:11:14,760 Harold Wilson had all sorts of difficulties when he was Prime 213 00:11:14,760 --> 00:11:18,200 Minister dealing with the Vietnam War, LB JS demands and 214 00:11:18,200 --> 00:11:23,120 then subsequently Nixon Ford, and that was a period when it 215 00:11:23,120 --> 00:11:27,400 was a potentially Rocky, but Wilson, using the the guile and 216 00:11:27,400 --> 00:11:31,640 skill that was his hallmark, managed to navigate an effective 217 00:11:31,640 --> 00:11:34,120 route through that. I don't think Starham is 218 00:11:34,120 --> 00:11:36,920 directly modelling himself and Wilson in every regard, but I 219 00:11:36,920 --> 00:11:40,400 think he can certainly say at the moment that, like Wilson, 220 00:11:40,680 --> 00:11:43,400 he's managed to show an adroitness in the handling of 221 00:11:43,400 --> 00:11:47,000 the transatlantic relationship. That raises a question I'd like 222 00:11:47,000 --> 00:11:50,200 to ask you about, Tom. The degree to which you think 223 00:11:50,200 --> 00:11:53,520 Keir Starmer, who has made a virtue really of coming from 224 00:11:53,520 --> 00:11:56,120 outside politics and into politics later in life, the 225 00:11:56,120 --> 00:11:59,520 degree to which he knows his political history. 226 00:12:00,360 --> 00:12:03,200 This might seem like a slight digression, but you've been to 227 00:12:03,200 --> 00:12:05,920 his house, I think. Is it on the bookshelves? 228 00:12:05,920 --> 00:12:08,720 Are they're political books like a lot of US obsessives have? 229 00:12:08,720 --> 00:12:11,200 Or is it a different range of interests and good novels for 230 00:12:11,200 --> 00:12:13,440 the beach? He does read political books. 231 00:12:13,440 --> 00:12:15,760 I remember going to his house once and finding out how Wilson 232 00:12:15,760 --> 00:12:19,120 biography on his sofa. Not, not a newly written one by 233 00:12:19,120 --> 00:12:21,280 a minister in his cabinet. It was it was that one. 234 00:12:21,280 --> 00:12:22,560 OK, well, that's slightly different. 235 00:12:22,600 --> 00:12:24,600 But I mean, maybe it's just polite to read it. 236 00:12:24,600 --> 00:12:27,240 But, but I, I, I think he, he does know political history, 237 00:12:27,240 --> 00:12:31,760 also knows a lot about foreign policy through his previous 238 00:12:31,760 --> 00:12:34,520 incarnations, you know, so as a human rights lawyer, he 239 00:12:34,520 --> 00:12:36,160 travelled around the world. Yes, I think he may have. 240 00:12:36,160 --> 00:12:39,840 Mentioned Heads of Government right as as as Director of 241 00:12:39,840 --> 00:12:42,040 Public Prosecutions. I think he's mentioned that job. 242 00:12:42,040 --> 00:12:45,520 Yeah, he, he, he, he dealt, he was actually part, you know, 243 00:12:45,520 --> 00:12:48,840 Euro just meetings and he, he, he represented Britain in 244 00:12:48,840 --> 00:12:51,200 Washington and meetings of Eric Holder than Justice secretary of 245 00:12:51,200 --> 00:12:53,680 the United States and then a shadow Brexit secretary. 246 00:12:53,680 --> 00:12:55,840 He travelled around Europe trying to get a better deal than 247 00:12:55,840 --> 00:12:59,040 the awful one that we got. Now, you know, that is 248 00:12:59,960 --> 00:13:02,280 considerable foreign policy experience. 249 00:13:02,560 --> 00:13:05,640 It's considerable understanding of the world. 250 00:13:05,680 --> 00:13:09,280 And what's interesting about it, I think is each one of those is 251 00:13:09,280 --> 00:13:12,400 located in what Churchill called the three spheres of influence 252 00:13:12,400 --> 00:13:14,960 that we have. Yeah, the Commonwealth, the 253 00:13:14,960 --> 00:13:18,840 United States and Europe. And he wants to stay close to 254 00:13:18,920 --> 00:13:21,240 all three. Because we're not actually. 255 00:13:21,760 --> 00:13:25,840 And, well, I want to ask about that exactly because when we 256 00:13:25,840 --> 00:13:29,680 were waiting for what seemed inevitable Keir Starmer to walk 257 00:13:29,680 --> 00:13:33,120 into #10 not always inevitable, but inevitable, as we got closer 258 00:13:33,120 --> 00:13:36,600 to the general election, there was quite a sort of trope going 259 00:13:36,600 --> 00:13:40,760 around in maybe in think tanks, but certainly in journalism, 260 00:13:41,000 --> 00:13:45,120 that Trump would force Keir Starmer into Europe's arms. 261 00:13:47,000 --> 00:13:51,120 It doesn't look like that is happening at all, does he? 262 00:13:51,680 --> 00:13:54,160 Trump is clearly trying to drive a wedge between the UK and the 263 00:13:54,160 --> 00:13:56,440 EU and is doing so. I mean, we'll, we'll see whether 264 00:13:56,440 --> 00:13:58,280 he'll be successful. We know, you know. 265 00:13:58,280 --> 00:14:00,120 Starmer was in Brussels earlier this week. 266 00:14:01,000 --> 00:14:02,320 All went very smoothly. They seem pleased to. 267 00:14:02,320 --> 00:14:04,480 See, seen very. I mean, I think the real thing 268 00:14:04,480 --> 00:14:08,160 is we can all talk and that's nice, but we have to put meat on 269 00:14:08,160 --> 00:14:09,360 the bones so they have a. Clue. 270 00:14:09,400 --> 00:14:11,600 I mean, we're coming up for a renegotiation. 271 00:14:13,200 --> 00:14:15,360 Do they have a clue what he really wants in Europe? 272 00:14:16,040 --> 00:14:19,400 No, I think the the UK has made it very clear that they want to 273 00:14:19,680 --> 00:14:23,840 seek a reset in UK EU relations. Given the political context, 274 00:14:23,840 --> 00:14:25,320 that's probably a positive thing. 275 00:14:25,440 --> 00:14:26,880 Not probably that is a positive thing. 276 00:14:27,720 --> 00:14:31,720 But the the problem is that a the UK isn't clear about what 277 00:14:31,720 --> 00:14:33,640 it's offering and what would be different. 278 00:14:33,920 --> 00:14:37,000 And because of EU KS self-imposed red lines really, 279 00:14:37,000 --> 00:14:39,360 which are not rejoining the single market and not rejoining 280 00:14:39,360 --> 00:14:42,800 the customs union, there's actually very little wiggle, 281 00:14:43,440 --> 00:14:47,680 wiggle room for manoeuvre. So that makes this reset quite 282 00:14:47,960 --> 00:14:49,720 difficult. I was. 283 00:14:50,680 --> 00:14:54,960 Just wondering because Tom was active trying to get a second 284 00:14:54,960 --> 00:14:58,280 referendum and you knew probably got to knew Nokia Starmer back 285 00:14:58,280 --> 00:15:00,560 back then. How much do you think it pains 286 00:15:00,560 --> 00:15:04,800 him that he he's not tiptoeing towards Europe remotely? 287 00:15:04,800 --> 00:15:06,680 Really. I mean, he turns turning up for 288 00:15:06,680 --> 00:15:09,520 a dinner, but he's not doing any of the big stuff that might have 289 00:15:09,520 --> 00:15:12,480 been thought was up his straight back. 290 00:15:12,480 --> 00:15:14,120 There. Well, let's come back. 291 00:15:14,120 --> 00:15:15,480 I agree. Not yet. 292 00:15:15,600 --> 00:15:18,040 I, I, I I think it could. Be a phase two to all of this. 293 00:15:18,200 --> 00:15:21,600 Yeah, I mean, I think there's a certain amount of impatience 294 00:15:22,040 --> 00:15:24,800 that they haven't got a win yet, and that's impatient stretching 295 00:15:24,800 --> 00:15:27,520 across government into Downing St. and beyond that. 296 00:15:27,520 --> 00:15:31,760 So far all we've got is some meetings and tending meetings is 297 00:15:31,760 --> 00:15:35,400 great symbolically, but it's not done anything to improve the, 298 00:15:35,520 --> 00:15:38,200 you know, the appalling circumstances that we were left 299 00:15:38,200 --> 00:15:40,760 in after Brexit. Nothing to mitigate the damage 300 00:15:40,760 --> 00:15:43,320 that that's done. And they need to get some wins 301 00:15:43,480 --> 00:15:44,840 now. You know, in an ideal world, I 302 00:15:44,840 --> 00:15:48,080 mean, this is a very, very challenging time, but it is 303 00:15:48,080 --> 00:15:52,480 possible, I think, for Britain to end up with improved trading 304 00:15:52,480 --> 00:15:55,040 relations with both Europe and America out of this. 305 00:15:55,480 --> 00:15:57,440 But that requires a certain amount of ducking and diving 306 00:15:57,440 --> 00:15:59,920 between the two of them, which I think they're ready to do. 307 00:16:00,280 --> 00:16:03,120 A bigger and more important question for Keir Starmer, I 308 00:16:03,120 --> 00:16:06,160 think, is this security issue where it's not about a 309 00:16:06,160 --> 00:16:08,760 transactional, you know, what can we get out of them? 310 00:16:09,200 --> 00:16:13,000 It's how do we actually protect the security of Europe from 311 00:16:13,000 --> 00:16:18,160 threats from without and within. And that is also Trump is 312 00:16:18,160 --> 00:16:20,120 crucial to that too. Well, there's a the, the, yeah, 313 00:16:20,120 --> 00:16:22,320 there's a huge amount there. I want to come back to the media 314 00:16:22,320 --> 00:16:25,120 on it in a second because what, what what does defence 315 00:16:25,120 --> 00:16:27,480 cooperation really mean when it comes to the European Union? 316 00:16:27,480 --> 00:16:31,480 But I wanted to ask you, Michael, you've written a piece 317 00:16:31,480 --> 00:16:34,320 in this week's, is it called Spectator magazine? 318 00:16:34,320 --> 00:16:36,760 Yeah, yes. And, and it's about Morgan 319 00:16:36,760 --> 00:16:37,720 McSweeney. Yes. 320 00:16:38,040 --> 00:16:41,280 Who's the chief of staff and was the campaign organiser for for 321 00:16:41,280 --> 00:16:44,640 Keir Starmer and. And you get an impression from 322 00:16:44,880 --> 00:16:50,120 your you've had conversations he's actually with him, with 323 00:16:50,120 --> 00:16:51,360 Trump. You seem incredibly well 324 00:16:51,360 --> 00:16:55,840 connected. He's very nervous of Europe 325 00:16:55,840 --> 00:16:58,040 still, by the sound of it, it's still the third rail. 326 00:16:58,040 --> 00:17:00,640 He's nervous of quite a few things which the left 327 00:17:00,640 --> 00:17:03,480 traditionally quite likes. But that, that's part of it, 328 00:17:03,480 --> 00:17:05,200 isn't it? Do you think that will actually 329 00:17:05,200 --> 00:17:09,280 govern Keir Starmer's relationship with Europe? 330 00:17:09,640 --> 00:17:13,560 I think it would be a factor. So Morgan Mcsweeney's analysis 331 00:17:13,560 --> 00:17:17,119 and the analysis of those around him of the of the last election 332 00:17:17,119 --> 00:17:21,119 and of Labour's future is that, and it's a contested analysis, 333 00:17:21,119 --> 00:17:26,440 but one that he holds fast to, is that voters in the red Wall, 334 00:17:26,680 --> 00:17:30,040 voters who had backed Boris and Brexit came home to Labour in 335 00:17:30,040 --> 00:17:33,200 2024. And that reopening the Brexit 336 00:17:33,200 --> 00:17:37,360 issue risks pushing them aside. Added to that, the biggest 337 00:17:37,360 --> 00:17:39,560 threat to Labour at the moment is not the Conservatives, but 338 00:17:39,560 --> 00:17:42,720 reform. And so Labour needs to be an 339 00:17:42,720 --> 00:17:46,280 insurgent party on the side of working people, not on the side 340 00:17:46,280 --> 00:17:49,640 of metropolitan elites as it were, as it might be seen. 341 00:17:49,840 --> 00:17:54,240 So therefore sounds like you. Therefore, Europe is is doubly 342 00:17:54,240 --> 00:17:59,320 bad and Europe is triply bad because migration is a 343 00:17:59,320 --> 00:18:01,920 touchstone issue for many of these voters. 344 00:18:02,160 --> 00:18:05,760 And one of the things that the the EU would most like to see as 345 00:18:05,760 --> 00:18:08,240 part of any reset is a youth mobility agreement. 346 00:18:08,560 --> 00:18:11,000 We actually have youth mobility agreements with Australia, New 347 00:18:11,000 --> 00:18:13,840 Zealand and South Africa. It's not a return to free 348 00:18:13,840 --> 00:18:17,240 movement, but it would be a relaxation of the current status 349 00:18:17,240 --> 00:18:19,320 quo in migration terms with the EU. 350 00:18:19,600 --> 00:18:22,680 And you could imagine Morgan, because we can well imagine how 351 00:18:22,680 --> 00:18:26,960 in the hands of Nigel Farage that could be used against this 352 00:18:26,960 --> 00:18:28,480 Labour government. I'm just going to say one thing 353 00:18:28,480 --> 00:18:33,400 briefly on the Security question, which is a a potential 354 00:18:33,400 --> 00:18:36,440 Achilles heel for Keir Starmer, of course, is the ceding of 355 00:18:36,440 --> 00:18:37,640 sovereignty on the Chagos Islands. 356 00:18:37,640 --> 00:18:40,280 But what is interesting so far is that lots of people who are 357 00:18:40,280 --> 00:18:43,160 Trump adjacent have expressed anger about it. 358 00:18:43,440 --> 00:18:45,520 But Trump himself? He hasn't said a dicky bird. 359 00:18:45,800 --> 00:18:48,280 It's the dog that hasn't barred, and that's intriguing. 360 00:18:48,280 --> 00:18:49,920 Yeah, might not have found it on the map. 361 00:18:50,880 --> 00:18:55,240 Ameda, I did want to ask you realistically when people talk 362 00:18:55,240 --> 00:18:59,000 about the defence cooperation in Europe, there seem to be a lot 363 00:18:59,000 --> 00:19:00,840 of different versions of what that is. 364 00:19:00,840 --> 00:19:04,480 And some people are less keen to only get their defence kit out 365 00:19:04,480 --> 00:19:06,720 of Europe because they always want to have ties with America 366 00:19:06,720 --> 00:19:09,360 and the rest of it. How realistic is is that over 367 00:19:09,560 --> 00:19:13,280 trumpeted a bit? It's a, it's a grabby phrase. 368 00:19:13,280 --> 00:19:16,000 It makes it sound, it sounds serious, but would it actually 369 00:19:16,000 --> 00:19:18,800 amount to a row of beans even if there was an agreement along the 370 00:19:18,800 --> 00:19:21,760 lines that that are being mapped out at at the moment if we 371 00:19:21,760 --> 00:19:22,920 looked back a few years from now? 372 00:19:23,160 --> 00:19:25,160 I think it could be a game changer if we're serious about 373 00:19:25,160 --> 00:19:27,400 it and if we're going to do it properly and we have to be 374 00:19:27,400 --> 00:19:29,880 serious about it because of the worsening external security 375 00:19:29,880 --> 00:19:34,640 environment. And then add to that a US ally 376 00:19:34,640 --> 00:19:38,000 who is still an ally. But there is bipartisan focus on 377 00:19:38,000 --> 00:19:41,840 the Indian Pacific, which may mean in the kind of medium to 378 00:19:41,840 --> 00:19:44,880 long term resources currently in Europe being reallocated 379 00:19:44,880 --> 00:19:49,120 elsewhere in the world, that means that Europe as a whole has 380 00:19:49,120 --> 00:19:51,160 to step up. And so this isn't about UK 381 00:19:51,160 --> 00:19:53,120 defence or EU defence or anything in between. 382 00:19:53,120 --> 00:19:57,920 It's about European defence and what that looks like so that, 383 00:19:58,040 --> 00:20:00,600 you know, we can defend ourselves against Russia and and 384 00:20:00,600 --> 00:20:05,400 any other kind of adversaries. I was trying to ask you, Tom, if 385 00:20:05,400 --> 00:20:10,720 if, if you think Keir Starmer, it pains him not to be able to 386 00:20:10,720 --> 00:20:13,560 embrace Europe, not to be able to do the project that you were 387 00:20:13,560 --> 00:20:17,280 jointly engaged on, trying to get a second referendum ages 388 00:20:17,280 --> 00:20:19,400 ago. But if if not doing that then 389 00:20:19,400 --> 00:20:24,040 then getting closer than he now feels able to get the man you 390 00:20:24,040 --> 00:20:27,400 describe in your book, his formative experiences, not being 391 00:20:27,400 --> 00:20:31,640 very particularly emotive. The rest of it, maybe he just 392 00:20:31,640 --> 00:20:34,560 compartmentalises it and moves on, but what's your sense of 393 00:20:34,560 --> 00:20:37,920 where Europe does his heartbeat for it or it's he's moved on? 394 00:20:38,000 --> 00:20:44,240 I think his Europeanism is based on 1945, not 1972, is based on 395 00:20:44,240 --> 00:20:48,800 that blood bond of the ECHR coming together to say this must 396 00:20:48,800 --> 00:20:50,960 never happen again. What you know, you know what, 397 00:20:50,960 --> 00:20:53,560 what Hitler did to his own people, that's, you know, that 398 00:20:53,560 --> 00:20:55,920 is the absolute core. And this, this human rights 399 00:20:55,920 --> 00:20:59,880 framework, this, this and that matters to him more. 400 00:20:59,880 --> 00:21:03,880 I think that sort of defense of a Liberal Democratic Europe than 401 00:21:03,960 --> 00:21:06,760 a transaction, any deal on this or that, you know, you know, 402 00:21:06,760 --> 00:21:08,560 when you get a veterinary agreement and so on. 403 00:21:09,000 --> 00:21:12,800 What is key though is, you know, the government is now 404 00:21:12,800 --> 00:21:15,080 prioritising growth above all other things. 405 00:21:15,680 --> 00:21:17,800 If you're going to prioritise growth above all other things, 406 00:21:18,160 --> 00:21:20,440 it's quite hard to say. Oh, but we can't do anything 407 00:21:20,440 --> 00:21:22,120 about Europe. It's quite hard to say actually. 408 00:21:22,120 --> 00:21:23,800 You can't have a grown up conversation about immigration 409 00:21:23,800 --> 00:21:25,200 and what skills we need. So this is. 410 00:21:25,200 --> 00:21:27,680 Your phase two point is it. So this, this comes back to the 411 00:21:27,680 --> 00:21:30,800 MC Sweeney issue, I think, which is if you have a very, very 412 00:21:30,800 --> 00:21:35,040 sharply edged political agenda, as Michael's written this week 413 00:21:35,040 --> 00:21:37,600 about, you know, the red wall and white working class. 414 00:21:37,600 --> 00:21:40,240 And you got a reader. I have. 415 00:21:40,280 --> 00:21:42,760 I have read it. It's free. 416 00:21:43,480 --> 00:21:48,920 Yeah. That creates contradictions in 417 00:21:48,920 --> 00:21:50,440 what you're trying to do in government. 418 00:21:50,640 --> 00:21:53,160 That creates tensions elsewhere in government. 419 00:21:53,640 --> 00:21:56,160 And I think that the, the, the key to understanding Keir 420 00:21:56,160 --> 00:22:01,160 Starmer is always to under recognise he sees the world as a 421 00:22:01,160 --> 00:22:03,160 complex place rather than a simple place. 422 00:22:03,560 --> 00:22:08,120 He doesn't like shallow, trite 3 word slogans. 423 00:22:08,440 --> 00:22:10,400 He recognises there's trade-offs. 424 00:22:10,640 --> 00:22:13,400 So yes, he wants to win those red wall seats. 425 00:22:13,400 --> 00:22:15,640 He also wants to call into those blue wall seats. 426 00:22:15,920 --> 00:22:19,440 Yes, he wants to, you know, deal with people's anxiety about 427 00:22:19,440 --> 00:22:21,640 immigration, but he also wants to get the skills we need to 428 00:22:21,640 --> 00:22:24,360 make our public services around work and our economy grow. 429 00:22:24,520 --> 00:22:26,440 So there's trade-offs everywhere. 430 00:22:26,720 --> 00:22:30,920 And I think I saw very narrow idea of mixed Sweeney's totally 431 00:22:30,920 --> 00:22:32,800 in what to do. That's not that's not how it is. 432 00:22:32,800 --> 00:22:35,240 It's more complicated than. I'm sure that three word slogan 433 00:22:35,600 --> 00:22:39,800 jibe wasn't addressed to you, take back control and all that. 434 00:22:40,280 --> 00:22:43,720 But do you think phase there could be a phase two? 435 00:22:43,720 --> 00:22:46,880 Could you envisage Rachel Reeves panicking, no growth, trying to 436 00:22:46,880 --> 00:22:50,720 reach over for dynamic alignment as it's called on certain 437 00:22:50,720 --> 00:22:54,480 sectors of British industry at the tail end of this government 438 00:22:54,480 --> 00:22:56,000 as it gets closer to a general election? 439 00:22:56,000 --> 00:22:58,080 Or do you, do you think actually what we're looking at at the 440 00:22:58,080 --> 00:23:00,360 moment, what Amit has been describing is probably the 441 00:23:00,360 --> 00:23:03,760 settled scope of ambition? I I don't think that there will 442 00:23:03,760 --> 00:23:05,800 be much change during this parliamentary term. 443 00:23:06,600 --> 00:23:09,160 So you, as everyone has acknowledged the, the trade and 444 00:23:09,160 --> 00:23:11,640 cooperation agreement has to come up for renegotiation. 445 00:23:11,640 --> 00:23:14,880 There are certain issues that were parked and certain others 446 00:23:14,880 --> 00:23:17,560 that are up for review. But I don't think there will be 447 00:23:17,640 --> 00:23:21,240 much movement because again, for there to be significant 448 00:23:21,240 --> 00:23:24,720 movement, then the self declared red lines, entry to the single 449 00:23:24,720 --> 00:23:27,600 market or the customs union would have to be breached. 450 00:23:27,920 --> 00:23:31,720 And Labour aren't going to do that because entry into the 451 00:23:31,720 --> 00:23:34,440 single market of course comes with free movement. 452 00:23:35,120 --> 00:23:37,880 There's another associated concern as well, I think for for 453 00:23:37,880 --> 00:23:40,720 some in Labour and some in government actually more 454 00:23:40,720 --> 00:23:44,760 precisely, which is that they can begin to see the glimmers of 455 00:23:44,760 --> 00:23:47,480 Brexit benefits for them in particular areas, for example. 456 00:23:47,480 --> 00:23:49,120 He's talked it up sometimes. Artificial. 457 00:23:49,120 --> 00:23:51,880 Assignments. He's made it clear explicitly 458 00:23:52,400 --> 00:23:54,920 that he believes that there are benefits in regulating 459 00:23:54,920 --> 00:23:57,760 differently from the EU. Steve Reed has talked about the 460 00:23:57,760 --> 00:24:00,840 benefits of regulating gene editing and agricultural 461 00:24:00,840 --> 00:24:04,080 technology differently. Now, these are not massive game 462 00:24:04,080 --> 00:24:06,760 changers in the economy yet. But I think it goes back to what 463 00:24:06,760 --> 00:24:09,720 Tom was saying, which is that I think that Stormer's revealed 464 00:24:09,720 --> 00:24:13,440 preference in government would be to see where he can accrue 465 00:24:13,720 --> 00:24:17,840 small positional advantages in particular areas without having 466 00:24:17,840 --> 00:24:20,360 to satisfy a particular ideological template. 467 00:24:20,520 --> 00:24:24,760 Even though he may emotionally deeply regret the fact that 468 00:24:24,760 --> 00:24:27,600 we're not in the European Union, I don't think he will allow that 469 00:24:27,600 --> 00:24:31,200 emotion to cloud a day-to-day judgement about what pragmatic 470 00:24:31,200 --> 00:24:34,000 wins he might be able to secure. What Tom said there, that's a 471 00:24:34,000 --> 00:24:37,120 strategic vision for EU KS relationship with the EU going 472 00:24:37,120 --> 00:24:39,960 forward that is not being articulated by the British 473 00:24:39,960 --> 00:24:41,720 government. And I think that's. 474 00:24:41,720 --> 00:24:43,120 That's why they should hire Tom Well. 475 00:24:43,440 --> 00:24:46,040 But, but I think that's the issue with this whole reset 476 00:24:46,040 --> 00:24:47,200 talk. But there's a, there's a 477 00:24:47,200 --> 00:24:50,440 mismanagement of expectations there that the UK isn't being 478 00:24:50,440 --> 00:24:52,840 clear about what it wants. There isn't a bigger strategic 479 00:24:52,840 --> 00:24:55,160 vision for the relationship going forward and that then 480 00:24:55,160 --> 00:24:57,800 doesn't help inform its priorities in those discussions 481 00:24:59,120 --> 00:25:02,520 as to where does Britain feature on on the EU's agenda. 482 00:25:02,520 --> 00:25:05,440 I mean, as I started off by saying, you know, there's a war 483 00:25:05,440 --> 00:25:08,080 on the continent, there is competitiveness and economic 484 00:25:08,080 --> 00:25:11,240 growth issues. They're embarking on a hugely 485 00:25:11,240 --> 00:25:16,520 ambitious enlargement process while, you know, just just lost 486 00:25:16,520 --> 00:25:18,400 one significant. With page 94. 487 00:25:19,840 --> 00:25:23,040 Not quite page 94, but certainly not in the top three priorities 488 00:25:23,040 --> 00:25:24,720 necessarily. And so certainly when it comes 489 00:25:24,720 --> 00:25:29,000 to the TCA negotiations or or review, I should say in 2026, 490 00:25:29,280 --> 00:25:33,280 there is 0 appetite to reopen that and go through every single 491 00:25:33,280 --> 00:25:36,320 page. Nor is there capacity really 492 00:25:36,320 --> 00:25:38,800 because of all these other issues that we're facing. 493 00:25:38,800 --> 00:25:42,240 And so I think as ever, we just, you know, sitting here in in 494 00:25:42,240 --> 00:25:45,480 London, we have to realise a what the E us interests are. 495 00:25:45,880 --> 00:25:49,040 EU KS articulated this desire to want to be closer. 496 00:25:49,040 --> 00:25:50,920 OK, fine. But then it has to come up with 497 00:25:50,920 --> 00:25:54,160 a proposal and it has to also think about what's palatable for 498 00:25:54,160 --> 00:25:56,440 the EU side, which at the moment I'm just not really seeing that 499 00:25:56,440 --> 00:25:59,640 understanding, constantly knocking out this discussion of 500 00:25:59,640 --> 00:26:02,480 youth mobility and tying that to freedom of movement, which it is 501 00:26:02,480 --> 00:26:04,320 not. And I don't understand why we 502 00:26:04,320 --> 00:26:06,320 would do that or why the government would do that. 503 00:26:07,320 --> 00:26:09,720 It is just particularly unconstructive and unhelpful, 504 00:26:09,720 --> 00:26:13,680 which is kind of taking away a little bit from all the positive 505 00:26:13,680 --> 00:26:18,360 symbolic mood musings that we saw right after Starmer's 506 00:26:18,360 --> 00:26:23,200 election. I I I'd like to finish if I can. 507 00:26:23,240 --> 00:26:27,560 I'd just asking you all about bringing it all back to Trump 508 00:26:28,240 --> 00:26:32,520 again and the degree to which he is influencing our politics, 509 00:26:32,520 --> 00:26:36,000 maybe maybe even he is the template for political 510 00:26:36,000 --> 00:26:40,200 leadership more and more so constantly in touch with his own 511 00:26:40,720 --> 00:26:46,800 grass roots big gestures that aren't necessarily backed up. 512 00:26:48,960 --> 00:26:52,400 Notwithstanding what you said earlier, Michael, by detailed 513 00:26:52,400 --> 00:26:56,160 policy plans. Can you say right wing leaders 514 00:26:56,160 --> 00:26:56,960 in Europe? Are they? 515 00:26:57,840 --> 00:27:01,880 There's quite a few of them who presumably take notes every time 516 00:27:01,880 --> 00:27:04,680 they watch watch him. I mean, there's right wing 517 00:27:04,680 --> 00:27:07,760 leaders and there's Trump, who's a convicted criminal. 518 00:27:08,040 --> 00:27:12,800 So I'm not sure I would subscribe to the idea that he's 519 00:27:12,800 --> 00:27:15,480 the image of a political leader. It was. 520 00:27:15,560 --> 00:27:18,960 Not the template, the technique. I was wondering if people are 521 00:27:19,600 --> 00:27:21,600 watching. It is a new, you know, this is a 522 00:27:21,600 --> 00:27:24,000 dawn of a new politics for all of us, is what I was wondering. 523 00:27:24,320 --> 00:27:27,040 Yes, and that's certainly 1 of ruthlessly pursuing national 524 00:27:27,040 --> 00:27:30,240 interest in a context of geopolitical fragmentation. 525 00:27:30,360 --> 00:27:34,000 Umm, umm, you know, and, and he's very close to obviously 526 00:27:34,000 --> 00:27:37,520 Georgia Maloney in, in Italy, uh, Viktor Orban in, in Hungary 527 00:27:37,520 --> 00:27:41,440 who are uh, populist far right leaders. 528 00:27:41,720 --> 00:27:43,320 Umm, and they're building those bridges. 529 00:27:43,880 --> 00:27:47,600 Umm, I think it's too soon to tell whether this is the model 530 00:27:47,920 --> 00:27:51,040 going forward. Tom Kate Starmer's trying to be 531 00:27:51,040 --> 00:27:54,960 the Georgia Maloney of, of Britain in a sense, in that he 532 00:27:54,960 --> 00:27:58,760 he wants to, he wants us to believe he's not anti European, 533 00:27:58,760 --> 00:28:05,200 but he's also happy to engage with Trump, maybe China as well. 534 00:28:05,200 --> 00:28:06,880 He he, he wants to walk all of these things. 535 00:28:06,880 --> 00:28:10,320 But but he's also talked about himself as Keir Starmer as a the 536 00:28:10,320 --> 00:28:13,440 last bulwark against populism. This government's got to work 537 00:28:13,440 --> 00:28:15,760 or, you know, it's the last roll of the dice. 538 00:28:15,760 --> 00:28:19,680 He's got to deliver things that make people think this system 539 00:28:19,680 --> 00:28:22,720 works. And yet the thing that he's 540 00:28:22,720 --> 00:28:24,840 worried about the right wing populism, he says might sort of 541 00:28:25,560 --> 00:28:28,440 is is is at the gates. That is Trump. 542 00:28:28,440 --> 00:28:33,240 I mean, he he he's hiding that sometimes, but that that's he's 543 00:28:33,240 --> 00:28:36,320 trying to stop Britain going Trump and yet being nice to 544 00:28:36,320 --> 00:28:36,920 Trump. How's that? 545 00:28:36,920 --> 00:28:39,200 Is he going to pull that off? I was. 546 00:28:39,360 --> 00:28:44,000 Talking to someone from Downing St. last night who said, do you 547 00:28:44,000 --> 00:28:47,320 realize that, yeah, we may be the sort of last that's sort of 548 00:28:47,320 --> 00:28:50,360 left of centre government left at this rate. 549 00:28:51,040 --> 00:28:55,560 So trying to hold this line now, it's really important in those 550 00:28:55,560 --> 00:29:01,480 circumstances that you don't become infected by the virus. 551 00:29:02,120 --> 00:29:05,320 And I think sometimes when people are trying to get a very 552 00:29:05,320 --> 00:29:09,280 clear message out about Keir Starmer, you see sort of almost 553 00:29:09,280 --> 00:29:11,920 of ersatz populist lines being given about, you know, civil 554 00:29:11,920 --> 00:29:15,480 service city in a tepid bar for magic he hated. 555 00:29:15,480 --> 00:29:19,560 He knows what's wrong, right? That's not him and I think what 556 00:29:19,560 --> 00:29:22,760 you his argument is that Morgan right, I don't I don't know who 557 00:29:22,760 --> 00:29:28,640 you're right. The the way to be not only the 558 00:29:28,640 --> 00:29:34,040 antithesis to populism, but also the antidote is to restore 559 00:29:34,040 --> 00:29:38,720 people's faith that the system can deliver for them and improve 560 00:29:38,720 --> 00:29:40,480 their lives and bring real change. 561 00:29:40,840 --> 00:29:44,720 Now that is harder as Michael knows than than sometimes it's 562 00:29:45,360 --> 00:29:49,640 looks in opposition and they're beginning to I think finally 563 00:29:49,640 --> 00:29:53,080 beginning to sort of hit some metal with their with with the 564 00:29:53,080 --> 00:29:56,240 shovels now, meanwhile, but but you know, it's taken a while. 565 00:29:56,240 --> 00:30:00,920 I mean, there is there's quite a lot of envy towards how Trump's 566 00:30:00,920 --> 00:30:03,760 approached his first few days in power in down St. 567 00:30:03,760 --> 00:30:06,520 You know, they're saying, well, why don't we have all those 568 00:30:06,520 --> 00:30:08,800 announcements ready? They didn't have 100 day plan 569 00:30:08,800 --> 00:30:12,240 and that is one of the problems. They, they had a series of 570 00:30:13,120 --> 00:30:18,680 rather unpopular announcements and a lot of office politics 571 00:30:18,680 --> 00:30:21,840 rather than real politics. And so I think they've learnt 572 00:30:21,840 --> 00:30:23,960 from that. It's very recoverable, but they 573 00:30:23,960 --> 00:30:25,880 have wasted a lot of time and they're looking across the 574 00:30:25,880 --> 00:30:28,240 Atlantic and that you don't have to be a populist to get your 575 00:30:28,240 --> 00:30:30,640 announcements out early to show you're delivering change. 576 00:30:30,760 --> 00:30:31,880 You just have to be a good government. 577 00:30:32,640 --> 00:30:35,920 It's been said, Michael, that one of the people in Britain who 578 00:30:35,920 --> 00:30:40,640 will be sitting drumming his fingers on the table looking at 579 00:30:40,640 --> 00:30:44,280 the way Trump is doing things, looking at the way maybe his 580 00:30:44,280 --> 00:30:47,000 party, your party, the Tory party, is looking for a force 581 00:30:47,000 --> 00:30:49,600 that can take on Farage, will be Boris Johnson. 582 00:30:50,680 --> 00:30:53,040 And that he'll be sitting there thinking at some point, sort of 583 00:30:53,280 --> 00:30:55,720 5 minutes to midnight before the next general election, the Tory 584 00:30:55,720 --> 00:31:00,960 party will come to him and beg forgiveness and hand in the 585 00:31:00,960 --> 00:31:03,680 leadership as the only way to take on Farage. 586 00:31:04,080 --> 00:31:05,960 Could you envisage that? It's not unthinkable, is it? 587 00:31:06,080 --> 00:31:09,400 It's not unthinkable, no. So yes, I mean, you know, Boris 588 00:31:09,400 --> 00:31:12,680 has been compared to since an artist, friends have compared to 589 00:31:12,680 --> 00:31:14,080 him. Friends of his, that is, have 590 00:31:14,080 --> 00:31:18,280 compared to de Gaulle as well. It would seem implausible at the 591 00:31:18,280 --> 00:31:22,880 moment, but then Trump's own return after having backed the 592 00:31:23,240 --> 00:31:28,640 the capital rioters and fermented, you know, and incited 593 00:31:28,640 --> 00:31:30,320 rebellion against his own vice president. 594 00:31:30,960 --> 00:31:32,240 Four years later, he's in the White House. 595 00:31:32,480 --> 00:31:35,640 So Boris will think in, in, in at a time like this, anything is 596 00:31:35,640 --> 00:31:38,360 possible. There's one thing, though, apart 597 00:31:38,360 --> 00:31:41,080 from all of the other issues that have been well aired, that 598 00:31:41,080 --> 00:31:44,680 stands in in Boris's way when it comes to thinking about a a 599 00:31:44,680 --> 00:31:46,160 return. And that is the increased 600 00:31:46,160 --> 00:31:50,560 salience of migration. Last week, Priti Patel, the 601 00:31:50,560 --> 00:31:53,960 shadow foreign secretary, was being hauled over the calls for 602 00:31:53,960 --> 00:31:55,360 the Conservative record on migration. 603 00:31:55,520 --> 00:31:59,400 I was part of that government. I'm as guilty as anyone or as 604 00:32:00,600 --> 00:32:03,080 proud as anyone of, of, of our records, so I'm not trying to 605 00:32:03,080 --> 00:32:08,560 distance myself. But the the position of many 606 00:32:08,720 --> 00:32:11,320 potential Conservative voters, particularly those who've gone 607 00:32:11,320 --> 00:32:14,600 over to reform, is that the last Conservative government signally 608 00:32:14,600 --> 00:32:17,480 let them down on migration. And Boris is very heavily 609 00:32:17,480 --> 00:32:20,720 associated with that. But if there is one person who 610 00:32:20,720 --> 00:32:23,600 is capable of transcending the detail by sheer force of 611 00:32:23,600 --> 00:32:27,480 personality, it's Boris. And forgetting it maybe along 612 00:32:27,480 --> 00:32:29,960 the way. As he has said before this the 613 00:32:29,960 --> 00:32:34,120 blessed sponge of amnesia can make the slate of memory clean, 614 00:32:34,120 --> 00:32:36,680 and he's probably hoping that will happen with Aspects. 615 00:32:37,040 --> 00:32:41,160 And his record if he is watching the chances of hiring you as his 616 00:32:41,160 --> 00:32:45,160 campaign manager. I think that I I'd be more than 617 00:32:45,160 --> 00:32:47,560 happy to write his biography, but I think that I probably 618 00:32:47,560 --> 00:32:49,560 shouldn't be writing his campaign plan. 619 00:32:50,640 --> 00:32:53,960 Thank you all three so much for your time and that discussion. 620 00:32:53,960 --> 00:32:56,680 Very grateful. That's it for this edition of 621 00:32:56,680 --> 00:32:58,600 the Forecast. Until next time, goodbye.