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The bottom line to this idea is 
that governments shouldn't be 

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trading humans. 
Why are we having that 

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discussion? 
What are the answers here, 

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people? 
And you know, let's face it, 

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predominantly young men will 
still take whatever risk if they

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think it's worth taking. 
Well, as Keir Starmer said, 

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there is no silver bullet and 
and actually the smash the gangs

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approach does encounter a number
of quite substantial operational

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challenges. 
Last week, of course, we saw the

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video that perhaps the far right
wanted to see, which was police 

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going into the water and 
slashing a boat. 

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We heard the child screaming. 
We heard heard everyone on their

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distraught. 
And maybe that's what they want.

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Hello and welcome to the 
Forecast. 

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I'm Paul McNamara. 
The UK and France have just 

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signed a deal that they hope 
will cut down on the number of 

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migrants crossing the Channel in
small boats. 

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The deterrent? 
Come to the UK illegally and you

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can be shipped straight back or 
as quick as the courts will 

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allow. 
France will accept these 

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returnees in exchange for 
Britain taking in refugees with 

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family connections or legitimate
claims. 

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But will this one in one out 
scheme really put off desperate 

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people fleeing war or famine? 
Small boat crossings are up 

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almost 56% this year, with more 
than 21,000 people making the 

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journey so far. 
Will those numbers come down and

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fast enough to ease the 
political pressure from illegal 

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migration? 
To discuss this, I'm joined by 

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Doctor Peter Walsh from Oxford 
University's Migration 

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00:01:32,200 --> 00:01:36,440
Observatory and from the refugee
charity Care for Kelly Charlotte

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Kahn. 
The numbers that we're talking 

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about here are, we understand, 
about 50 returned per week. 

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Well, at the moment, since 
Labour first came into power, 

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about 850 people have been 
coming to the UK every single 

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week. 
So will this be enough to deter 

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those people crossing the 
Channel in small boats, Peter? 

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It's unlikely to have much of an
impact. 

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The working assumption has 
always been that the size of the

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deterrent effect of any returns 
deal like this will depend on a 

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substantial share of people who 
reach the UK by small boat being

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returned to France. 
After all, these are individuals

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who have travelled thousands of 
miles to get to Calais. 

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They've spent thousands of EUR. 
They're willing to risk their 

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lives by getting in a small boat
to reach the UK. 

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If there's not a substantial 
probability of being returned 

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swiftly to France, then there's 
a likelihood that they'll just 

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view this as one additional risk
that they're willing to take. 

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Charlotte is that what you're 
hearing from people actually in 

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France? 
I think the bottom line to this 

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idea is that governments 
shouldn't be trading humans. 

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It's quite obvious that that 
shouldn't be happening, and I'm 

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a little confused to be honest. 
I mean, family reunification 

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00:02:52,600 --> 00:02:56,400
should already exist. 
So with this new plan, what 

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exactly is the government 
suggesting that so far they've 

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been denying people this right? 
Or are they saying that they 

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will in the future deny family 
reunification unless some poor 

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person who's come across on on a
small boat is forcibly removed 

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from the from the nation? 
I mean, this is, this is crazy 

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and it works on a horrible 
assumption that the people who 

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are coming over on small boats 
have no connection to the UK, 

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which many do. 
And an even worse assumption 

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that people on small boats don't
have the right to claim asylum 

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in the UK, which they all do. 
So it's a nonsense and it it 

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won't work because it's a 
deterrent based policy. 

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And we know from years and years
of working in this sector now 

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deterrent based policies do not 
stop people crossing the 

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Channel. 
But Charlotte, if they know that

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there is a legal route and if 
they apply by the rules that 

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Keir Starmer has just laid out, 
they would have a way of coming 

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to the UK legally and have some 
sort of future here. 

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Would that not be an attractive 
prospect? 

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Am I in favour of safe routes? 
Absolutely 100%. 

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I think safe routes is the only 
answer. 

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It's the serious solution to 
this. 

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I I think all this pomp and 
ceremony and political circus is

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it would be laughable if it 
wasn't costing lives. 

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Safe routes is the answer. 
Things will only work if they 

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00:04:15,520 --> 00:04:19,079
affect the majority of people 
who at the moment are coming 

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onto small boats. 
So there would need to be a real

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political will behind safe 
routes for it to work and it 

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would need to affect a lot more 
people. 

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And we saw this success of a 
political will being in place 

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with the Ukrainian scheme. 
And then that is the same sort 

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of thing that we would need to 
see for a wider safe route 

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00:04:37,040 --> 00:04:40,600
across the Channel so people can
just join our asylum system like

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they do elsewhere. 
OK, before we start picking 

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00:04:43,200 --> 00:04:46,160
apart this policy even more, 
let's just do a bit of new 

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reader starts here. 
So why are people willing to 

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00:04:50,240 --> 00:04:54,400
risk death in the Channel, get 
in these small boats and come to

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the UK when they could stay in 
France? 

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00:04:56,160 --> 00:04:58,000
Peter. 
Several reasons. 

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I mean, chief among them would 
actually speak with the 

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individuals. 
They'll speak of the presence of

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family members in the UK, 
existing family connections or 

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friends, members of the 
community. 

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That's a strong jaw. 
A second is the English 

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language, that these are 
individuals who already have 

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some facility with English. 
They prefer to develop their 

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English language skills rather 
than learn French, Spanish or 

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German. 
And 3rd, there is now emerging 

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evidence of a Brexit effect, 
which is that when we were a 

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part of the EU, we had access to
the EU's asylum seeker 

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fingerprint database. 
We had access to the Dublin 

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system under which asylum 
seekers who had claimed in the 

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EU could be returned to the 
block. 

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We no longer have access to 
those as a result of Brexit and 

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people understand that if 
they've claimed in the EU and 

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been refused, they can have 
another bite of the cherry by 

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coming to the UK because we 
wouldn't know about that. 

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Look Charlotte, a lot of people 
watching this are going to turn 

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around and say what is wrong 
with claiming asylum in France? 

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So this is a big misconception. 
I think people who speak like 

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that think that every refugee 
wants to come to the UK. 

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This simply isn't the truth and 
we and we have all the 

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statistics to back it up. 
Most people seeking safety will 

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do so in a country neighboring 
their own. 

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The most the majority of people 
coming to Europe don't want to 

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come to the UK. 
So this is, this is a nonsense. 

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The people who are wanting to 
come to the UK do so for really 

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strong reasons and that is to be
with their family or that is 

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language. 
It is to have a chance to 

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rebuild their life in safety. 
And they haven't found this 

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elsewhere. 
You know, we hear really 

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distressing stories and accounts
from people that have worked 

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their way through Europe. 
Yes, they have been to 

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countries, but they certainly 
haven't found their safe place. 

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They have been met with state 
violence and to such an extent 

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that they have to move on. 
But there are some individuals 

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who, yes, they, they are trying 
to get to family here, which I 

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would do, I think most of us 
would do. 

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If I had an uncle in a country, 
I'd be heading to him. 

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What's the appeal of this deal, 
what we've had announced, What's

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the appeal here for France, 
Peter? 

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It's a good question. 
I think a part of it is that 

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France wishes to show the 
willingness to cooperate on 

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really what is a shared issue. 
France already has quite a lot 

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of cooperation on this issue 
with the UK. 

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We have patrols over there. 
We share intelligence and by the

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end of financial year 27 will 
have sent about a billion euros 

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in the 10 years prior to that. 
But I think it really is this 

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appreciation that this is an 
international issue. 

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France is not satisfied with the
formation of informal migrant 

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settlements in and around Calais
and really it's a recognition of

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that fundamentally. 
So you spend quite a lot of time

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in Calais, lots of pictures that
have been raised. 

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Voters over the last couple of 
years have been no sights of 

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French policemen standing 
around, not doing very much. 

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When people hop into boats and 
then launch into the Channel, 

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why aren't the French 
intervening more? 

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Is it simply because they're 
more than happy for people to 

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leave the country? 
Come over here, let the UK deal 

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00:08:12,400 --> 00:08:13,960
with it. 
Well, if people are wanting the 

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French police to make refugees 
lives a misery in Calais, they 

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00:08:17,240 --> 00:08:18,960
can rest assured that that's 
definitely happening. 

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For years now we've seen an 
escalation in police violence 

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00:08:23,720 --> 00:08:25,840
paid for by us, by the UK 
government. 

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Of course, on the sites in 
Calais, we've seen tear gas, 

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we've seen pepper spray, you 
know, the very few belongings 

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that people have in the world 
being destroyed in front of 

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them, violence against people. 
I mean, I did think I had seen 

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it all. 
But then last week, of course, 

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we saw the video that perhaps 
the far right wanted to see, 

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which was police going into the 
water and slashing a boat when 

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people were still on board. 
We heard the child screaming. 

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We heard everyone on their 
distraught and maybe that's what

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they want and I think this is 
this is what the governments are

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00:09:01,440 --> 00:09:03,280
working towards. 
They are pandering towards the 

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FAR. 
Charlotte isn't there? 

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00:09:04,720 --> 00:09:08,200
Isn't there an argument here 
that actually, yeah, they're 

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00:09:08,200 --> 00:09:13,320
distressing images, but actually
it's a kind of thing to make 

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00:09:13,320 --> 00:09:15,320
sure that they're not further 
out and to see they're not 

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getting into more danger. 
You're stopping people before 

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you, before they take that 
really, really dangerous journey

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00:09:19,680 --> 00:09:21,800
the full way across the channel.
Oh my God, yeah. 

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I wish that people wouldn't take
that risk. 

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00:09:23,680 --> 00:09:27,800
I, I wish that they didn't have 
to, of course, 100%, but we are 

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talking nonsense if we think 
that that one event is going to 

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00:09:31,440 --> 00:09:33,920
stop people trying again. 
There was nothing to suggest 

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00:09:33,920 --> 00:09:36,440
that they won't stop trying. 
We speak to people all the time.

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We, we spoke to people 
specifically when the Rwanda 

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00:09:39,520 --> 00:09:41,440
plan was there. 
It was meant to be the biggest 

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00:09:41,440 --> 00:09:43,960
deterrent ever. 
Look, the biggest deterrent ever

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00:09:43,960 --> 00:09:47,000
is that you might lose your life
in this journey and people are 

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00:09:47,000 --> 00:09:50,480
still willing to do it. 
Peter is that is that the the 

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00:09:50,480 --> 00:09:53,560
mood music that you hear that it
doesn't really matter what 

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00:09:53,560 --> 00:09:56,800
deterrents are put in place 
people and you know, let's face 

187
00:09:56,800 --> 00:10:00,720
it, predominantly young men will
still take whatever risk if they

188
00:10:00,720 --> 00:10:03,080
think it's worth taking. 
They are desperate to reach the 

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00:10:03,080 --> 00:10:05,320
UK. 
And when you look at the 

190
00:10:05,320 --> 00:10:07,880
countries that they've come 
from, in some sense it's no 

191
00:10:07,880 --> 00:10:11,160
great surprise why they tend to 
come from some of the most 

192
00:10:11,160 --> 00:10:15,120
chaotic parts of the world, 
countries that suffer political 

193
00:10:15,120 --> 00:10:21,520
persecution, environmental 
catastrophe, war, civil or 

194
00:10:21,520 --> 00:10:23,520
ethnic conflict of various 
kinds. 

195
00:10:24,040 --> 00:10:27,080
And that's why it's no surprise,
of course, that large majorities

196
00:10:27,080 --> 00:10:29,240
claim asylum. 
And at the moment, of those that

197
00:10:29,240 --> 00:10:31,880
have received a decision on 
their asylum claim, a pretty 

198
00:10:31,880 --> 00:10:34,880
large majority, 2/3, have been 
successful. 

199
00:10:35,600 --> 00:10:38,480
Charlotte, I get the impression 
from the from the top there that

200
00:10:38,480 --> 00:10:41,160
you're not overly pleased with 
the announcement that's just 

201
00:10:41,160 --> 00:10:45,360
been made by Sir Keir Starmer. 
Is there any form of returns 

202
00:10:45,360 --> 00:10:47,240
agreement that you would have 
looked at and gone? 

203
00:10:47,280 --> 00:10:51,480
Yeah, OK, I can get behind that.
I, I, my, my purpose isn't here 

204
00:10:51,480 --> 00:10:56,240
to talk about returns agreement.
I, I'm, I'm really disturbed by 

205
00:10:56,240 --> 00:10:59,160
that idea that we have to trade 
humans in any way. 

206
00:10:59,640 --> 00:11:01,560
Why are we doing that? 
Why are we having that 

207
00:11:01,560 --> 00:11:04,040
discussion? 
Why aren't we talking about our 

208
00:11:04,040 --> 00:11:08,080
obligations as a country to, you
know, help people who have come 

209
00:11:08,080 --> 00:11:12,320
to us asking for help? 
Why are we trying to shirk our 

210
00:11:12,320 --> 00:11:15,680
responsibility just because of 
this fluke of geography that we 

211
00:11:15,680 --> 00:11:18,520
have this deadly channel in 
between us? 

212
00:11:18,720 --> 00:11:20,920
Why are we doing that? 
My mind boggles. 

213
00:11:20,920 --> 00:11:24,360
I don't understand why we're not
just talking about a safe route 

214
00:11:24,720 --> 00:11:26,920
and why we're talking about 
returns in this way. 

215
00:11:27,240 --> 00:11:30,600
There are returns policies in 
place, but can I go back to 

216
00:11:30,600 --> 00:11:33,040
something you mentioned about 
them, mostly young men. 

217
00:11:33,040 --> 00:11:35,960
And this is something that the 
that the far right really like 

218
00:11:35,960 --> 00:11:38,520
to, you know, get stuck in in 
on. 

219
00:11:38,840 --> 00:11:41,440
You know, when we look at the 
nations that the people are are 

220
00:11:41,440 --> 00:11:45,360
fleeing from the very targets of
those governments that they are 

221
00:11:45,360 --> 00:11:48,240
fleeing and the persecution they
flee, the very targets are young

222
00:11:48,240 --> 00:11:51,600
men forced conscription into 
what is basically, you know, 

223
00:11:51,600 --> 00:11:54,320
death gangs. 
So they are the targets. 

224
00:11:54,800 --> 00:11:58,680
Why we would stop those young 
men seeking asylum in our nation

225
00:11:58,680 --> 00:12:00,640
is disgraceful. 
I really do. 

226
00:12:00,640 --> 00:12:03,840
I really dislike this sort of 
gender based discussion that 

227
00:12:03,840 --> 00:12:06,360
happens on this topic. 
And maybe it's because I'm a mum

228
00:12:06,560 --> 00:12:11,160
of two strapping teenage boys 
and God forbid that my very 

229
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tall, you know, 13 and 15 year 
old sons ever had to flee their 

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home like my friends, mothers 
have had to tell them, you know,

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run. 
God forbid that they were met 

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with this, that people were 
wishing them to die on their way

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to meeting a relative in a safe 
country. 

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Peter, can you talk us through 
the scale of the problem across 

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the whole of Europe? 
Because a lot of people watching

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the news, watching the UK news 
will only see the people that 

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are crossing the Channel to get 
here. 

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But looking across Europe, how? 
What's the scale of the problem 

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in every other European nation? 
Yes, it's very much a European 

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challenge and the UK is most 
certainly not alone here. 

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If we talk about unauthorised 
maritime arrivals, Italy has 

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frequently 2 to three times, 
Greece often has more, Spain as 

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well. 
So there are many countries that

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experience this. 
And certainly the extent to 

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which the UK experiences 
unauthorised maritime migration 

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is considerably of less 
magnitude than the numbers that 

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are reaching Italy, for example.
So this is a pan European 

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problem, but what we've got now 
is an agreement between the UK 

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and France. 
Is there a risk that the 

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Europeans can step in here and 
say we're blocking this? 

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We've already seen some 
opposition from a number of 

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frontline states, Italy, Cyprus,
Malta, Spain and Greece. 

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Their concern is that 
individuals that are returned to

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France may end up back in those 
countries which already view 

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themselves as as overburdened 
and taking responsibility for 

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large numbers of individuals. 
But of course, at the same time,

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an individual that could be 
returned to those countries is 

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also coming to the Uki think one
of the big questions about this 

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fairly limited deal for the time
being is whether it might be a 

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stepping stone to a broader 
agreement between the UK and the

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EU as a whole. 
And the big win, I think for UK 

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policy makers would be regaining
access to the E US fingerprint 

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asylum seeker database. 
Charlotte, immigration is a huge

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issue in British politics. 
Labour feel that they've got to 

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get on top of this. 
Just talking to Labour MPs 

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before we started this podcast, 
one, one of them was saying to 

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me, look, this is a good start 
but we're going to have to go 

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further because we are facing 
real problems here from Reform 

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00:14:32,560 --> 00:14:35,760
who are looking at taking a far 
harder line stance. 

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00:14:36,440 --> 00:14:40,720
Are you concerned that if Labour
don't tackle this problem now, 

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it's not going to be whatever 
Keir Starmer comes up with, but 

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00:14:43,760 --> 00:14:46,080
it might be what Nigel Farage 
comes up with which you would 

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find far less palatable? 
So I, I do think it's 

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extraordinary that a Labour 
government is in place and we're

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having these discussions. 
I've worked in this sector for 

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00:14:55,280 --> 00:14:58,560
years now and even in our, in 
our darkest day under the Tory 

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00:14:58,560 --> 00:15:02,040
government, you, you at least 
have that hope that, you know, 

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one day they're going to get 
voted out and this change is 

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coming. 
But here we are with the Labour 

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government having the same 
discussions. 

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I think it's extraordinary that 
Labour are choosing this 

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strategy of trying to out 
reform, reform. 

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I mean, that's not a a vote 
winner. 

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Who's going to do that? 
If you if you want to vote for 

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the for the very worst, in my 
opinion, you know policies, then

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00:15:21,080 --> 00:15:23,080
you just the. 
Polls show that it that it is a 

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00:15:23,080 --> 00:15:26,760
vote winner Charlotte. 
Well, I mean, I, I really do 

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00:15:27,440 --> 00:15:30,680
think that the majority of 
Labour, traditional Labour 

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00:15:30,680 --> 00:15:34,040
voters don't want what the 
Labour government are bringing 

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00:15:34,040 --> 00:15:35,560
in place. 
They honestly don't. 

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00:15:35,680 --> 00:15:38,440
And it's certainly not our 
experience as a charity who are,

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you know, out in the UK, across 
the UK all the time, we have 

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00:15:42,920 --> 00:15:45,480
thousands of volunteers. 
We come across loads of 

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00:15:45,480 --> 00:15:49,320
different communities who are 
not interested in what reforms 

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00:15:49,480 --> 00:15:53,520
are selling now. 
Do we all share the same sort of

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00:15:53,520 --> 00:15:56,960
frustrations that perhaps reform
voters have? 

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00:15:57,040 --> 00:16:00,160
Yes, I think we do. 
I think that's a wider political

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00:16:00,160 --> 00:16:02,600
discussion. 
Peter, this isn't just a 

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00:16:02,680 --> 00:16:04,560
European problem, it's not just 
Auk problem. 

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00:16:04,560 --> 00:16:07,160
This is migration. 
Global migration is a problem 

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00:16:07,240 --> 00:16:08,920
across the world. 
I've just come back from the 

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00:16:09,600 --> 00:16:13,680
Mexico, Arizona border. 
Donald Trump by taking a really 

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00:16:13,680 --> 00:16:16,960
hard line approach, has pretty 
much shut down that border. 

304
00:16:16,960 --> 00:16:19,640
The border crossings are down by
huge numbers. 

305
00:16:19,800 --> 00:16:23,200
He's only with aggressive 
tactics of forced immigration, 

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00:16:23,280 --> 00:16:27,120
immigration now we've got people
who are volunteering to return 

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00:16:27,120 --> 00:16:30,720
to their home nations because 
it's such a toxic environment. 

308
00:16:32,040 --> 00:16:35,920
Could a similar system work over
here if the government went 

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00:16:35,920 --> 00:16:38,840
really, really hard line, really
appeal to those voters who might

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00:16:38,840 --> 00:16:41,760
be flirting with reform? 
Law enforcement has its 

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00:16:41,880 --> 00:16:43,920
limitations. 
That the case of the US is 

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00:16:43,920 --> 00:16:47,320
actually quite instructive in 
that it showed that a 

313
00:16:47,320 --> 00:16:51,760
combination of enforcement, 
sometimes harsh and rigorously 

314
00:16:51,760 --> 00:16:57,240
applied, along with the safe and
legal routes, proved to be the 

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00:16:57,240 --> 00:17:01,800
most effective kind of solution.
The big question, of course, is 

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00:17:01,800 --> 00:17:04,839
whether the Labour government 
would find that politically 

317
00:17:05,040 --> 00:17:07,079
palatable. 
But that has been one of the big

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00:17:07,079 --> 00:17:11,440
lessons coming out of the UK 
case study, the US case study 

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00:17:11,440 --> 00:17:16,480
Look. 
Long term, what are the answers 

320
00:17:16,480 --> 00:17:18,800
here? 
How can so, how can the 

321
00:17:18,800 --> 00:17:20,960
government stop these small 
boats crossing? 

322
00:17:20,960 --> 00:17:23,119
You know, we've heard so much 
about smash the gangs. 

323
00:17:23,240 --> 00:17:25,880
Well, how many gangs have 
actually been smashed so far? 

324
00:17:25,880 --> 00:17:27,960
How are we going to get these 
crossings down, Peter? 

325
00:17:28,280 --> 00:17:30,720
Well, as Keir Starmer said, 
there is no silver bullet and 

326
00:17:30,720 --> 00:17:34,760
actually the smash the gangs 
approach does encounter a number

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00:17:34,760 --> 00:17:37,680
of quite substantial operational
challenges. 

328
00:17:37,680 --> 00:17:40,520
The smuggling networks are 
increasingly professionalised, 

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00:17:40,520 --> 00:17:42,680
well resourced. 
They've always been adaptable. 

330
00:17:43,160 --> 00:17:45,360
It takes a lot of resource to 
hand smugglers. 

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00:17:45,360 --> 00:17:48,320
They can be quickly replaced and
senior figures operate in 

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00:17:48,320 --> 00:17:51,760
countries not just beyond the 
UK's jurisdiction but beyond 

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00:17:51,760 --> 00:17:55,120
that of the EU, and often in 
countries with which the UK has 

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00:17:55,120 --> 00:17:58,360
very little to no law 
enforcement cooperation. 

335
00:17:58,360 --> 00:18:01,840
So the magnitude of the 
challenge very substantial 

336
00:18:01,840 --> 00:18:03,480
indeed. 
Charlotte, what about you? 

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00:18:03,840 --> 00:18:05,200
Is there any solution you can 
see? 

338
00:18:06,240 --> 00:18:09,080
Yes, well, I mean, he says 
there's no silver bullet. 

339
00:18:09,080 --> 00:18:11,480
You know, we heard there was no 
magic money tree either and all 

340
00:18:11,480 --> 00:18:13,000
of that. 
We've we've heard phrases like 

341
00:18:13,000 --> 00:18:15,640
this before. 
There is it's safe routes. 

342
00:18:15,760 --> 00:18:17,440
It's a safe route to cross the 
channel. 

343
00:18:17,560 --> 00:18:20,880
That is what will destroy the 
smugglers business model 

344
00:18:21,200 --> 00:18:24,400
overnight. 
I I'm incredibly frustrated that

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00:18:24,400 --> 00:18:28,160
the government refused to even 
research or look into a safe 

346
00:18:28,160 --> 00:18:29,840
route in order for people to 
cross the channel. 

347
00:18:31,680 --> 00:18:36,320
We've produced policies with 
with PCs union who represent 

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00:18:36,360 --> 00:18:38,960
Border Force, who represent 
people who work in the Home 

349
00:18:38,960 --> 00:18:41,160
Office. 
We're not some sort of lefty 

350
00:18:41,280 --> 00:18:44,480
crazy utopian thinking agency 
here. 

351
00:18:44,760 --> 00:18:47,440
We have put forward a serious 
solution here which they are 

352
00:18:47,440 --> 00:18:50,680
refusing to consider. 
Is that essentially an open door

353
00:18:50,680 --> 00:18:53,560
though, Charlotte? 
No, no, it's not. 

354
00:18:53,600 --> 00:18:54,920
I mean. 
So would you put numbers on? 

355
00:18:54,960 --> 00:18:56,680
Would you put? 
Would you put limits on? 

356
00:18:57,080 --> 00:18:58,720
Please, let's start that 
conversation. 

357
00:18:58,760 --> 00:19:01,520
You know, I, I'm not here to go 
into the minutiae of exactly 

358
00:19:01,520 --> 00:19:04,120
what the Home Office would do, 
but let's have a look at that. 

359
00:19:04,120 --> 00:19:07,120
You know, we have a blueprint. 
It's not just talk. 

360
00:19:07,120 --> 00:19:10,800
We have a blueprint based quite 
heavily on the Ukrainian scheme 

361
00:19:11,360 --> 00:19:14,080
where people would be able to 
access the right to cross the 

362
00:19:14,080 --> 00:19:16,560
Channel to enter our asylum 
process. 

363
00:19:16,760 --> 00:19:20,200
So our asylum process, we are 
told by Labour is robust. 

364
00:19:20,520 --> 00:19:23,720
Therefore let people enter it 
without having to risk their 

365
00:19:23,720 --> 00:19:26,040
lives because that is what the 
crisis is. 

366
00:19:26,040 --> 00:19:28,080
The crisis is people are dying 
in the Channel. 

367
00:19:28,400 --> 00:19:31,440
It's not that people are seeking
asylum in the UK, surely. 

368
00:19:32,120 --> 00:19:35,480
Peter, if you're a betting man, 
how much money would you put on 

369
00:19:35,520 --> 00:19:38,680
what's been announced today 
having any real impact on 

370
00:19:38,680 --> 00:19:40,960
getting the numbers down? 
I can see Charlotte shaking her 

371
00:19:40,960 --> 00:19:44,720
head already, by the way. 
The numbers would have to be 

372
00:19:44,720 --> 00:19:48,320
substantial such that there 
would be a large chance of being

373
00:19:48,320 --> 00:19:51,640
returned to France under this 
initial pilot stage. 

374
00:19:51,680 --> 00:19:53,800
Those numbers are not 
particularly up large. 

375
00:19:53,800 --> 00:19:57,440
That's really the the low number
scenario where it's difficult to

376
00:19:57,440 --> 00:19:59,760
imagine much material the 
Tarrant effect. 

377
00:20:00,280 --> 00:20:03,480
And if it doesn't have an 
effect, what's the 

378
00:20:03,480 --> 00:20:06,280
ramifications? 
Very difficult to predict. 

379
00:20:06,280 --> 00:20:09,560
The UK may very well seek a 
broader deal with the EU, but 

380
00:20:09,720 --> 00:20:13,480
the big question is there, well,
will the EU be keen to do that? 

381
00:20:13,480 --> 00:20:16,320
It certainly prefers deals with 
the block as a whole rather than

382
00:20:16,320 --> 00:20:18,200
these kinds of bilateral 
agreements. 

383
00:20:18,600 --> 00:20:22,040
But the question for the EU will
be, well, why would we give the 

384
00:20:22,080 --> 00:20:25,840
UK these additional powers that 
have been typically reserved for

385
00:20:25,840 --> 00:20:27,760
member states? 
And Charlotte, do you think this

386
00:20:27,760 --> 00:20:30,760
is ultimately going to have any 
impact on the people that you 

387
00:20:30,760 --> 00:20:33,400
deal with in Calais? 
I don't think it's going to stop

388
00:20:33,400 --> 00:20:36,360
people crossing the channel, no,
I think it's going to risk 

389
00:20:36,360 --> 00:20:39,560
people's lives. 
That's that's the truth of it is

390
00:20:39,560 --> 00:20:43,840
that people will die. 
Last year at least 78 people 

391
00:20:43,840 --> 00:20:46,240
died in our channel. 
This is just this just can't 

392
00:20:46,240 --> 00:20:48,720
continue. 
So the result will be this is 

393
00:20:48,840 --> 00:20:52,120
yet another cruel deterrent 
based policy, which won't work. 

394
00:20:52,400 --> 00:20:55,480
It won't stop people and people 
will just continue to die. 

395
00:20:56,400 --> 00:20:59,320
What will will what happen is 
that the far right will continue

396
00:20:59,320 --> 00:21:02,560
to use it in the way that they 
do to stir up hatred. 

397
00:21:02,960 --> 00:21:05,760
We'll, we'll be distracted from 
the issues that are really 

398
00:21:05,760 --> 00:21:07,200
important to people who live 
here. 

399
00:21:07,480 --> 00:21:11,280
And rather than looking 
elsewhere, we will be, we will 

400
00:21:11,280 --> 00:21:15,000
be guided towards people who are
running from war and 

401
00:21:15,000 --> 00:21:19,200
persecution, who have nothing 
and are just asking for safety. 

402
00:21:19,400 --> 00:21:21,280
That's who we are supposed to 
blame. 

403
00:21:21,640 --> 00:21:23,520
And that will continue. 
And that's the rhetoric that 

404
00:21:23,520 --> 00:21:25,440
will continue and nothing will 
change. 

405
00:21:25,720 --> 00:21:28,280
I don't think that's the write 
up Keir Starmer was hoping for 

406
00:21:28,280 --> 00:21:29,640
straight after his press 
conference. 

407
00:21:29,640 --> 00:21:32,160
Sure it's not. 
Yeah, I'm sure it's not, but 

408
00:21:32,400 --> 00:21:34,400
there we go. 
Sometimes we have to speak truth

409
00:21:34,400 --> 00:21:38,200
to power, don't we? 
But play Doctor Peter Walsh from

410
00:21:38,200 --> 00:21:40,400
the Oxford University's 
migration to Observatory. 

411
00:21:40,920 --> 00:21:43,680
Charlotte Kahn from Care for K 
Thank you very much for joining 

412
00:21:43,680 --> 00:21:45,160
us. 
Thank you. 

413
00:21:45,640 --> 00:21:47,400
Thank you. 
That's it for this episode of 

414
00:21:47,400 --> 00:21:49,680
The Forecast. 
Until next time, goodbye.