1 00:00:00,040 --> 00:00:03,400 It is extremely dangerous because what is happening in the 2 00:00:03,400 --> 00:00:06,200 world now reminds me of the 1930s. 3 00:00:06,200 --> 00:00:08,680 That's an alarming comparison. Some people would say that's 4 00:00:09,200 --> 00:00:11,440 exaggerated when you consider how that ended. 5 00:00:11,600 --> 00:00:14,720 I certainly think that this is not exaggerated in worse 6 00:00:14,720 --> 00:00:19,600 situation now, because all of this populism and other things, 7 00:00:19,600 --> 00:00:24,600 it captured good part of Europe. Now the populism, the rise of 8 00:00:24,600 --> 00:00:28,720 the authoritarian tendencies, US is right in the centre of that. 9 00:00:28,720 --> 00:00:31,200 So for Europe, is the plan to to wake up? 10 00:00:31,200 --> 00:00:33,560 Putin has done a lot of nuclear Sabre rattling. 11 00:00:33,680 --> 00:00:35,000 Yes. Is he serious? 12 00:00:38,360 --> 00:00:40,360 Hello and welcome to the forecast. 13 00:00:40,480 --> 00:00:43,280 As Donald Trump and Vladimir Zelensky's latest meeting 14 00:00:43,560 --> 00:00:46,760 reportedly descended into another shouting match behind 15 00:00:46,760 --> 00:00:51,240 closed doors, the war in Ukraine feels as volatile as ever, and, 16 00:00:51,240 --> 00:00:54,720 according to some, more dangers for the world than at any time 17 00:00:54,880 --> 00:00:58,560 since the Cold War. Our guest today is Sehi Prachi, 18 00:00:58,800 --> 00:01:01,680 professor of Ukrainian history at Harvard University and author 19 00:01:01,880 --> 00:01:05,319 of The Nuclear Age. He warns that fear is once again 20 00:01:05,319 --> 00:01:09,160 driving nations towards the bomb and that we could soon see 21 00:01:09,160 --> 00:01:11,160 dozens more nuclear armed states. 22 00:01:11,400 --> 00:01:14,560 So it's about stumbling into new nuclear era. 23 00:01:14,840 --> 00:01:18,360 And what does that mean for global security and indeed for 24 00:01:18,360 --> 00:01:21,800 Ukraine's fight to survive? Sahi, good to see you again. 25 00:01:22,120 --> 00:01:24,480 It's a pleasure. Let's start with the news, kind 26 00:01:24,480 --> 00:01:27,560 of the topical news this Budapest summer, which seems 27 00:01:27,640 --> 00:01:31,080 quite an extraordinary idea when it was first mooted last week. 28 00:01:31,320 --> 00:01:32,520 Is it going to happen, do you think? 29 00:01:34,720 --> 00:01:41,120 I would say it's 5050, but I would say that probably 90 30 00:01:41,120 --> 00:01:44,400 against Stan that probably it will not produce any 31 00:01:44,960 --> 00:01:49,680 breakthrough if it happens because the positions, in 32 00:01:49,680 --> 00:01:53,120 particular the position of Russia is still the same. 33 00:01:53,640 --> 00:01:59,040 They want to keep whatever they got on the battlefield and they 34 00:01:59,040 --> 00:02:02,920 also want Ukraine to surrender additional territories. 35 00:02:04,160 --> 00:02:09,520 So I go back in history at, at any sort of peace deal or 36 00:02:09,520 --> 00:02:14,400 ceasefire that the norm is that it goes along the existing front 37 00:02:14,400 --> 00:02:18,720 lines. So I I don't think that this is, 38 00:02:18,720 --> 00:02:22,800 this is the position that really suggests that we are going to 39 00:02:22,800 --> 00:02:24,960 witness the end of hostilities anytime soon. 40 00:02:25,160 --> 00:02:28,960 But if Putin says no to the Budapest summit, which is 1 hell 41 00:02:28,960 --> 00:02:31,120 of a gift, is he being a bit greedy here? 42 00:02:31,120 --> 00:02:34,800 Because it's in Budapest, hosted by Viktor Orban, who is the 43 00:02:34,800 --> 00:02:37,680 closest thing that Putin has to a real friend in the European 44 00:02:37,680 --> 00:02:39,800 Union. It's a kick in the teeth for the 45 00:02:39,800 --> 00:02:42,200 European Union. Trump will be there. 46 00:02:42,560 --> 00:02:44,560 Zelensky, as far as he knows, is not going to show up. 47 00:02:45,000 --> 00:02:47,760 We know that in the last meeting between Zelensky and Trump, 48 00:02:47,760 --> 00:02:50,680 Trump more or less represented Vladimir Putin at the table. 49 00:02:52,080 --> 00:02:58,160 Well, they had President Trump and and Putin had meeting in 50 00:02:58,160 --> 00:03:01,120 Alaska. So having meeting doesn't mean 51 00:03:01,440 --> 00:03:04,320 solving the issue. Solving the problem so. 52 00:03:04,680 --> 00:03:06,960 But it's a diplomacy. It looks good for Putin, doesn't 53 00:03:06,960 --> 00:03:08,040 it? Or the summit in red. 54 00:03:08,040 --> 00:03:10,960 Carpets. The the the red carpet in 55 00:03:10,960 --> 00:03:12,800 Alaska. Yes, exactly that. 56 00:03:12,800 --> 00:03:14,800 That looked exceptionally good for Putin. 57 00:03:15,000 --> 00:03:19,080 It means that he is back on the international arena. 58 00:03:19,160 --> 00:03:23,160 He can go to the United States and not be arrested. 59 00:03:23,160 --> 00:03:27,080 And now going to Budapest means that he can go to Europe as 60 00:03:27,080 --> 00:03:29,720 well. So, yeah, it would be absolutely 61 00:03:29,720 --> 00:03:33,240 being whatever the, the the outcome of the Budapest summit 62 00:03:33,240 --> 00:03:35,240 would be. So we don't know. 63 00:03:35,240 --> 00:03:38,520 We don't have the date yet. They haven't agreed on that. 64 00:03:38,520 --> 00:03:45,360 And what we see now from the Russian side, the the statements 65 00:03:45,760 --> 00:03:49,760 come in that the the only condition on which Russia is 66 00:03:49,760 --> 00:03:54,320 prepared to stop fighting, it's when Russia gets more territory. 67 00:03:54,320 --> 00:03:57,280 And it's not just more territory, it's urban 68 00:03:58,880 --> 00:04:03,720 conglomerate and, and, and towns and cities in highly 69 00:04:03,720 --> 00:04:08,560 industrialized on bus area, which is apart from value, apart 70 00:04:08,560 --> 00:04:11,320 from people. It's also the the position that 71 00:04:11,320 --> 00:04:15,000 is very difficult to to take. It's not, it's not a field. 72 00:04:15,960 --> 00:04:19,560 So yeah, it would be a strategic, strategic defeat of 73 00:04:19,560 --> 00:04:23,960 major proportions for Ukraine, for the West and for the for the 74 00:04:24,400 --> 00:04:25,440 future of Europe, for. Sure. 75 00:04:25,440 --> 00:04:28,320 So just to be clear, say what you're saying is that the things 76 00:04:28,320 --> 00:04:31,480 that Putin can't get on the battlefield where the front 77 00:04:31,480 --> 00:04:33,760 lines have been frozen for quite a long time? 78 00:04:33,800 --> 00:04:37,680 More or less he. Thinks he can get from Trump as 79 00:04:37,680 --> 00:04:40,680 a concession. That is the, the, the, the, that 80 00:04:40,680 --> 00:04:43,680 is certainly the plan that that is certainly the, the position. 81 00:04:43,680 --> 00:04:46,560 And it's more than just negotiation position from which 82 00:04:46,840 --> 00:04:49,760 he starts. That's what he says again and 83 00:04:49,760 --> 00:04:51,840 again that he wants to get. So. 84 00:04:52,000 --> 00:04:55,360 So the new battlefield in this war is actually inside Trump's 85 00:04:55,360 --> 00:04:58,720 head. Certainly, certainly that's what 86 00:04:58,720 --> 00:05:01,280 is happening. The the the battle is for the 87 00:05:01,280 --> 00:05:04,120 position of the United States, for the position of the US 88 00:05:04,120 --> 00:05:08,280 president. And as we know that Frontline is 89 00:05:08,280 --> 00:05:11,960 moving back and forth quite often, so. 90 00:05:12,360 --> 00:05:15,440 Hard to keep up. One, one day it's the Russia 91 00:05:15,440 --> 00:05:18,720 winning, another day it's Ukraine backed by the European 92 00:05:18,720 --> 00:05:21,880 leaders, which are a very important, very important 93 00:05:21,880 --> 00:05:25,480 participants in that battle, not just in the battle on the on the 94 00:05:26,480 --> 00:05:29,720 in, on Ukraine frontline, but also American frontline. 95 00:05:30,080 --> 00:05:34,040 So after last Friday's meeting in the Oval Office between Trump 96 00:05:34,040 --> 00:05:37,680 and Zelensky, things seem to be relatively positive. 97 00:05:37,680 --> 00:05:39,760 He didn't get his Tomahawk missiles. 98 00:05:40,240 --> 00:05:42,960 You know, Trump wasn't particularly friendly towards 99 00:05:42,960 --> 00:05:45,000 Zelensky. But then we heard afterwards 100 00:05:45,240 --> 00:05:49,440 that behind closed doors, the meeting was almost as ugly as 101 00:05:49,440 --> 00:05:52,800 the public. You know, disaster back in 102 00:05:52,800 --> 00:05:57,160 February. Well, that, that means that 103 00:05:57,360 --> 00:06:00,880 there probably in the future will be more ups and downs in, 104 00:06:00,880 --> 00:06:03,000 in, that's in, in those relationships. 105 00:06:03,520 --> 00:06:07,800 It also indicates that Zelensky was not intimidated. 106 00:06:08,520 --> 00:06:13,000 And from what we can tell from the previous story of 107 00:06:13,000 --> 00:06:17,080 relationship between the two leaders, the, the, the, the 108 00:06:17,080 --> 00:06:20,080 quarrel today doesn't mean that there can be some sort of 109 00:06:20,080 --> 00:06:22,840 understanding tomorrow and, and vice versa. 110 00:06:22,840 --> 00:06:24,720 So that, that that's a roller coaster. 111 00:06:24,720 --> 00:06:28,960 And I was in September in Ukraine for two weeks. 112 00:06:29,520 --> 00:06:31,840 People there take this really hard. 113 00:06:31,840 --> 00:06:36,560 So the, the at stake is, of course, the survival of the 114 00:06:36,560 --> 00:06:38,400 country, their personal survival. 115 00:06:38,400 --> 00:06:41,280 And this news, they don't, they don't help it. 116 00:06:41,280 --> 00:06:43,320 It goes back and forth, back and forth. 117 00:06:43,320 --> 00:06:46,120 The hopes are going up. And then, then suddenly, 118 00:06:46,120 --> 00:06:48,520 suddenly there is a major, major disappointment. 119 00:06:48,520 --> 00:06:51,120 But even but in the back and forth, and, you know, one day 120 00:06:51,120 --> 00:06:53,960 Trump says that Ukraine could win all this territory back and 121 00:06:53,960 --> 00:06:56,720 then the next day says they should suck it up and deal with 122 00:06:56,720 --> 00:06:59,480 their losses. Do you think that Trump 123 00:06:59,480 --> 00:07:03,720 fundamentally understands what Putin wants, which is for 124 00:07:03,720 --> 00:07:07,640 Ukraine to stop existing as an independent nation state, and 125 00:07:07,640 --> 00:07:11,760 what the Ukrainians insist on, which is their survival as an 126 00:07:11,760 --> 00:07:15,920 independent nation state? From the public pronouncements, 127 00:07:15,920 --> 00:07:18,760 I don't think that there is. I don't see that there is an 128 00:07:18,760 --> 00:07:20,640 understanding that. Trump doesn't get it. 129 00:07:21,520 --> 00:07:26,400 Or his advisors, if they get that they, they, they, they keep 130 00:07:26,400 --> 00:07:29,560 it as, as, as a deepest secret. So it's, it's not, it's not 131 00:07:29,560 --> 00:07:31,840 certainly in the public, it's not in the pronouncements. 132 00:07:32,400 --> 00:07:36,480 And it's very much the whole thing is about the territory. 133 00:07:36,520 --> 00:07:41,360 And, and, and at stake is of course not, not, not just 134 00:07:41,360 --> 00:07:44,560 territory or any territory. It's it's the survival of 135 00:07:44,560 --> 00:07:47,120 Ukraine. How do you think future 136 00:07:47,120 --> 00:07:51,000 historians will interpret victory in this war? 137 00:07:51,000 --> 00:07:54,520 Looking at the region and its tough neighborhood in which 138 00:07:54,520 --> 00:07:58,880 Ukraine is, Ukraine now goes through the process of really 139 00:07:58,880 --> 00:08:03,040 establishing its independence in face of the resurgent empire. 140 00:08:03,680 --> 00:08:08,080 And this is the story, this is the situation in which Poland 141 00:08:08,080 --> 00:08:12,000 and and Romania and other East and Central European countries 142 00:08:12,000 --> 00:08:16,720 were before that. None of them really stayed in 143 00:08:16,720 --> 00:08:21,040 the borders in which it was born or emerged after World war. 144 00:08:21,040 --> 00:08:23,720 The border shift, the border shift in the region. 145 00:08:23,720 --> 00:08:25,520 Yeah, the border shift in the region. 146 00:08:25,520 --> 00:08:30,120 But what is important, important is sovereignty, the survival and 147 00:08:30,120 --> 00:08:31,680 sovereignty. So that's. 148 00:08:31,680 --> 00:08:33,960 The sense of nationhood. You know, the Poles have a very 149 00:08:33,960 --> 00:08:36,799 strong sense of Polish nation, despite the fact that their 150 00:08:36,799 --> 00:08:38,720 border ceased to exist in the 19th century. 151 00:08:38,720 --> 00:08:42,400 Exactly, exactly. So that's that's assurance of 152 00:08:42,400 --> 00:08:47,000 survival and that assurance also of success, political but also 153 00:08:47,000 --> 00:08:49,120 economic. Look at at Polish, Polish 154 00:08:49,120 --> 00:08:54,720 economy today, how again the the the entire country was shifted 155 00:08:55,040 --> 00:08:59,840 after the World War 2, acquiring some territories, losing others. 156 00:09:00,120 --> 00:09:04,000 So my position was that the victory for Ukraine is survival, 157 00:09:04,000 --> 00:09:09,160 survival as a sovereign state. If that doesn't happen, then it 158 00:09:09,160 --> 00:09:11,240 is not a victory. But it hopes to survive as a 159 00:09:11,240 --> 00:09:14,840 sovereign state inside secure borders, even if they've shifted 160 00:09:14,840 --> 00:09:16,720 somewhere. Exactly, security. 161 00:09:16,720 --> 00:09:20,760 Security is the core is is is is extremely important. 162 00:09:20,760 --> 00:09:24,240 So think of adding that it. It's always puzzled me that 163 00:09:24,440 --> 00:09:29,080 Europe, an economy 10 times the size of Russia's, you know, a 164 00:09:29,160 --> 00:09:33,120 fragmented but very healthy arms industry and A, and a very 165 00:09:33,120 --> 00:09:36,840 particular cause which most European member states seem to 166 00:09:36,840 --> 00:09:40,080 buy into, that this is European and Western values at stake 167 00:09:40,080 --> 00:09:44,960 here, that they've not stood up to Vladimir Putin, you know, in 168 00:09:44,960 --> 00:09:47,800 a most robust way, especially when they say this is 169 00:09:47,800 --> 00:09:50,920 existential not just for Ukraine but also for us, right. 170 00:09:51,160 --> 00:09:53,360 What, in essence do you think is going on there? 171 00:09:53,880 --> 00:10:00,120 Well, certainly the EU has a difficulty of really translating 172 00:10:00,120 --> 00:10:05,400 and transforming its economic power into first political will 173 00:10:06,040 --> 00:10:12,640 to defend itself, to defend values, to defend the the, the 174 00:10:12,640 --> 00:10:17,040 type of the of the economy, to defend the level of prosperity. 175 00:10:17,800 --> 00:10:23,080 And the reason for that is that Europe really didn't function as 176 00:10:23,080 --> 00:10:32,160 1 Organism almost ever. And after 1945, it relied really 177 00:10:32,160 --> 00:10:34,560 on the United States to provide protection. 178 00:10:35,080 --> 00:10:39,480 And what is happening now, it's a very, very difficult and 179 00:10:39,480 --> 00:10:44,400 challenging process for for Europe, finding enough unity, 180 00:10:44,480 --> 00:10:48,240 finding enough ways of how, how to survive together. 181 00:10:48,680 --> 00:10:53,520 Because on their own European countries can survive E European 182 00:10:53,520 --> 00:10:57,280 countries who were under or most of them who were under the 183 00:10:57,360 --> 00:11:00,280 Russian control, under the Soviet control before that 184 00:11:00,920 --> 00:11:04,480 understand that the Finland countries, countries in northern 185 00:11:04,480 --> 00:11:08,040 Europe understand that. But talking to Germany, it's 186 00:11:08,040 --> 00:11:12,200 already becomes difficult. France and and Spain again, they 187 00:11:12,200 --> 00:11:14,840 are on board. But for them it's, it's it's 188 00:11:14,840 --> 00:11:17,880 more a theoretical threat than than a real one. 189 00:11:18,760 --> 00:11:24,520 Ukraine, by heroically, really fighting back, buys time for 190 00:11:24,520 --> 00:11:29,760 Europe to put it's act together because in the new world you're 191 00:11:29,760 --> 00:11:33,600 really now, you can't be sure that the United States will show 192 00:11:33,600 --> 00:11:39,000 up when it matters and Europe has to find a way to protect 193 00:11:39,000 --> 00:11:41,880 what it got. So this is, at the end of the 194 00:11:41,880 --> 00:11:44,560 day, this really is as far as you're concerned about the 195 00:11:44,560 --> 00:11:48,480 survival of Europe. It is, it is because we already 196 00:11:48,480 --> 00:11:54,760 see that Putin goes there and bribes individual leaders and 197 00:11:54,760 --> 00:12:00,120 countries and Slovakia and, and Hungary already are playing, it 198 00:12:00,120 --> 00:12:03,960 doesn't look like on European team on, on, on many issues. 199 00:12:03,960 --> 00:12:06,840 And it can take 1 country one after another. 200 00:12:07,560 --> 00:12:11,120 He he, he, he was very, very influential and tragically 201 00:12:11,120 --> 00:12:15,760 continues to be in Germany, for example, and support for either 202 00:12:15,760 --> 00:12:22,240 far right or far left, any anti anti system sort of political 203 00:12:22,240 --> 00:12:23,960 forces. It's certainly the one of the 204 00:12:23,960 --> 00:12:30,680 tools that he hasn't he uses. So yeah, Ukraine, Ukraine is, is 205 00:12:30,680 --> 00:12:33,720 fighting not just for European values, which is true. 206 00:12:33,720 --> 00:12:37,880 It wants to stay democratic. It wants to to to stay 207 00:12:37,880 --> 00:12:41,280 sovereign, but it's also for Europe and interests of Europe. 208 00:12:41,960 --> 00:12:45,600 What is the bigger factor in dividing Europe in its response 209 00:12:45,600 --> 00:12:50,600 to Russia? Is it the constant potential of 210 00:12:50,600 --> 00:12:52,800 a nuclear threat from Vladimir Putin? 211 00:12:53,200 --> 00:12:57,040 Is it the fact that you know your perception of the Russian 212 00:12:57,040 --> 00:12:59,720 threat recedes as your geography expands? 213 00:13:00,680 --> 00:13:03,240 Is it internal politics? Or all three. 214 00:13:04,120 --> 00:13:07,160 Geography matters when it comes to Europe and you see a 215 00:13:07,160 --> 00:13:10,800 different reaction to Putin's actions, as I already said, 216 00:13:10,800 --> 00:13:15,640 between let's say Poland and, and, and Spain or Portugal. 217 00:13:16,600 --> 00:13:19,840 But geography becomes less important when it comes to 218 00:13:19,840 --> 00:13:24,360 nuclear weapons course. And the biggest concern for 219 00:13:24,680 --> 00:13:29,040 Putin using nuclear weapons in Ukraine was really registered 220 00:13:29,040 --> 00:13:30,760 not in Europe, but in Washington. 221 00:13:31,400 --> 00:13:35,120 So the, the, the potential and, and Trump keeps talk, you know, 222 00:13:35,120 --> 00:13:38,800 at least till recently about the, whether Zelensky wants to 223 00:13:38,800 --> 00:13:41,600 bring the third World War because everyone understands 224 00:13:41,600 --> 00:13:44,640 that the third World War can be, can be only nuclear. 225 00:13:45,400 --> 00:13:49,640 So nuclear kind of descends this, this geography and, and 226 00:13:49,640 --> 00:13:52,680 geographic, geographic divisions. 227 00:13:53,160 --> 00:13:58,560 And what I, what I write about in my book, it's, it's certainly 228 00:13:58,560 --> 00:14:03,160 the history of the, of the nuclear age, starting with HG 229 00:14:03,160 --> 00:14:07,000 Wells and imagining, imagining the, the nuclear war back in 230 00:14:07,000 --> 00:14:10,960 1913, but it ends with the, with the war in Ukraine. 231 00:14:11,320 --> 00:14:15,120 Apart from the threat of the use of nuclear weapons, we have also 232 00:14:15,120 --> 00:14:17,640 something that we never saw in history before. 233 00:14:17,960 --> 00:14:20,280 That's so-called Atoms For Peace. 234 00:14:20,640 --> 00:14:24,560 Nuclear power plants are turning into weapons for war as Russia 235 00:14:24,560 --> 00:14:28,320 takes over Chernobyl first and then the Parisian nuclear plant. 236 00:14:28,680 --> 00:14:31,360 And that is a real danger, isn't it, that these become massive 237 00:14:32,000 --> 00:14:33,520 dirty bombs in the heart of Europe? 238 00:14:34,040 --> 00:14:35,520 Exactly. Dirty bomb. 239 00:14:35,520 --> 00:14:37,480 That's that that that's the term. 240 00:14:37,480 --> 00:14:43,200 And I think it's a much more real possibility and threat than 241 00:14:43,200 --> 00:14:46,520 the use of nuclear weapons, because use of nuclear weapons, 242 00:14:46,520 --> 00:14:50,160 that means breaking the taboo that exists since the times of 243 00:14:50,160 --> 00:14:53,640 Hiroshima and Nagasaki and paying a political and economic 244 00:14:53,640 --> 00:14:58,360 price because China is is not particularly keen on anyone 245 00:14:58,360 --> 00:15:01,640 using nuclear weapons at this point, or India for that matter. 246 00:15:02,120 --> 00:15:06,200 So Putin can lose the only allies or the biggest allies 247 00:15:06,200 --> 00:15:10,480 that he has, but so-called accident of the nuclear power 248 00:15:10,480 --> 00:15:14,920 plant when it's impossible to prove who, who's who was 249 00:15:14,920 --> 00:15:17,160 responsible for what and what happened. 250 00:15:17,720 --> 00:15:21,200 That's, that's, that's, that's. It seems to me a much more 251 00:15:21,200 --> 00:15:23,680 immediate danger. Let's talk, you write in your 252 00:15:23,680 --> 00:15:26,400 brilliant book about also nuclear Saber rattling. 253 00:15:27,000 --> 00:15:29,200 Right. Putin has done a lot of nuclear 254 00:15:29,200 --> 00:15:31,400 Saber rattling. He mentions the nuclear threat 255 00:15:31,600 --> 00:15:33,080 periodically. Yes. 256 00:15:33,680 --> 00:15:38,240 Is he serious? So far, certainly that was the 257 00:15:38,240 --> 00:15:41,360 most successful Russian psychological operation of the 258 00:15:41,360 --> 00:15:44,400 war because it certainly influenced thinking in 259 00:15:44,400 --> 00:15:46,960 Washington during Biden administration. 260 00:15:46,960 --> 00:15:53,640 That in in turn, influenced the question of how much Ukraine was 261 00:15:53,640 --> 00:15:55,280 getting weapons. What sort of gap? 262 00:15:55,480 --> 00:15:57,520 What sort of gap? Don't give them anything too 263 00:15:57,520 --> 00:16:00,120 powerful in case you provoke the nuclear bear. 264 00:16:00,560 --> 00:16:04,400 Exactly because the the the the whole game was about at the 265 00:16:04,400 --> 00:16:08,680 so-called red lines in the head of Putin, whether they existed 266 00:16:08,680 --> 00:16:12,240 or not, where were they? And that there was general 267 00:16:12,240 --> 00:16:14,720 agreement at that time that Crimea is one of them. 268 00:16:14,720 --> 00:16:20,360 So the idea was give Ukraine enough to to hold the line, but 269 00:16:20,360 --> 00:16:24,480 not enough to somehow be able to get into the Crimea. 270 00:16:24,640 --> 00:16:26,400 But that's really important, isn't it? 271 00:16:26,400 --> 00:16:29,160 Because if you're never going to give Ukraine more to actually 272 00:16:29,160 --> 00:16:32,840 win this war, and if, if, if victory means pushing the 273 00:16:32,840 --> 00:16:36,320 Russians back to the original borders and making sure they 274 00:16:36,320 --> 00:16:39,800 never cross your front, your borders ever again, then you 275 00:16:39,800 --> 00:16:42,800 have to engage with the possibility of a nuclear threat. 276 00:16:44,200 --> 00:16:46,240 Because it's possible that that Putin would use. 277 00:16:46,240 --> 00:16:49,760 It you, you, you have and in that sense, and again, that's 278 00:16:49,760 --> 00:16:53,760 that's what I'm saying in in trying to argue in my book that 279 00:16:54,840 --> 00:16:58,920 we have to relearn certain not just lessons, but also skills of 280 00:16:58,920 --> 00:17:04,240 the Cold War because we survived the Cold War because of the 281 00:17:04,240 --> 00:17:09,200 existence of thing that Winston Churchill defined as balance of 282 00:17:09,200 --> 00:17:11,760 terror. And I write about that as 283 00:17:11,760 --> 00:17:17,599 balance of fear, because Russia is not the only nuclear power in 284 00:17:17,599 --> 00:17:22,280 the world. And if only the West is scared 285 00:17:22,280 --> 00:17:26,119 of the of the Russian nuclear power and Russia is not scared 286 00:17:26,119 --> 00:17:28,720 of the Western one we don't have. 287 00:17:28,840 --> 00:17:30,600 You don't have a balance of fear you. 288 00:17:30,600 --> 00:17:31,600 Don't have the? Balance. 289 00:17:31,600 --> 00:17:34,080 You don't have deterrence. You don't, you don't have 290 00:17:34,080 --> 00:17:38,080 deterrence exactly so. And it's, it sounds very kind of 291 00:17:38,080 --> 00:17:42,120 reckless, what I am saying, But that's, that's the reality. 292 00:17:42,120 --> 00:17:43,800 That's how we survived the Cold War. 293 00:17:43,800 --> 00:17:46,440 But how did we end up in a point where the Russians are not 294 00:17:46,440 --> 00:17:51,160 afraid of the nuclear threat from the West, whether it's the 295 00:17:51,160 --> 00:17:53,320 United States or indeed France and and Britain? 296 00:17:54,080 --> 00:17:58,920 Well, because on some point we really believed in the idea that 297 00:17:59,720 --> 00:18:03,160 history came to an end. Maybe not in Fukuyama's 298 00:18:03,160 --> 00:18:07,240 understanding of the victory of liberal democracy, but the end 299 00:18:07,240 --> 00:18:10,680 of the big wars, the brutal force and other things. 300 00:18:11,200 --> 00:18:17,040 And new generations came, politicians, new electorate 301 00:18:17,040 --> 00:18:18,840 showed up, and so on and so forth. 302 00:18:18,840 --> 00:18:23,160 So we, we assumed that that eternal peace actually arrived. 303 00:18:23,800 --> 00:18:27,600 And now we know with the war in Ukraine, which is the largest 304 00:18:27,600 --> 00:18:30,560 war in Europe since 45, potentially the largest war in 305 00:18:30,560 --> 00:18:38,280 the world, that that was a moment that was a peace, peace 306 00:18:38,280 --> 00:18:43,560 period that unfortunately as as everything in the world, good 307 00:18:43,560 --> 00:18:46,400 and bad comes to an end. It came to an end. 308 00:18:46,560 --> 00:18:49,240 But you're what you're arguing in your book is that the reason 309 00:18:49,240 --> 00:18:52,920 why we had the peace is because there was this balance of fear. 310 00:18:52,920 --> 00:18:57,560 The very existence of nuclear weapons was so unimaginable as a 311 00:18:57,560 --> 00:19:01,000 military tool on the battlefield that we had this balance of 312 00:19:01,000 --> 00:19:02,640 fear. And if we had no global war, 313 00:19:02,640 --> 00:19:05,600 plenty of regional wars, no global wars for almost 8 314 00:19:05,600 --> 00:19:07,600 decades. Yes, yes, I'm not. 315 00:19:07,600 --> 00:19:10,680 I'm not the first one to argue that, of course, certainly, but, 316 00:19:10,680 --> 00:19:15,360 but, but certainly I'm I my own research demonstrates that I 317 00:19:15,360 --> 00:19:19,680 don't have any other explanation for why we have this the 318 00:19:19,680 --> 00:19:23,240 longest, probably the peace in the modern history. 319 00:19:23,280 --> 00:19:25,200 I mean global peace. Of course there are original 320 00:19:25,200 --> 00:19:27,840 wars. So have we become flabby in the 321 00:19:27,840 --> 00:19:30,280 West, in Europe? Have we become complacent 322 00:19:30,680 --> 00:19:33,040 because we didn't think that those global wars could ever 323 00:19:33,040 --> 00:19:34,560 happen again? We got used to nuclear 324 00:19:34,560 --> 00:19:36,480 deterrence. Yes, yes. 325 00:19:36,480 --> 00:19:43,240 And anyone who was talking about, let's say investing in 326 00:19:43,240 --> 00:19:47,800 the defences was considered to be a war monger and and and so 327 00:19:47,800 --> 00:19:51,280 on and so forth. So people, people focused on 328 00:19:51,280 --> 00:19:55,040 different things and but again, the, the, the, the peace benefit 329 00:19:55,040 --> 00:19:57,560 of the fall of the Berlin Wall came to an end. 330 00:19:57,560 --> 00:20:02,560 So we have we have to learn the lessons of the Cold War because 331 00:20:03,320 --> 00:20:07,440 for for generations historians of the Cold War were asking 332 00:20:07,440 --> 00:20:12,480 question how did it happen that the grand airlines of World War 333 00:20:12,480 --> 00:20:15,200 2 deteriorated in this horrible thing called. 334 00:20:16,160 --> 00:20:20,080 Cold War, which is a good question to ask and discuss, but 335 00:20:20,080 --> 00:20:23,600 now I think much more important for our own survival is the 336 00:20:23,600 --> 00:20:29,440 question, what did we do right during the Cold War that we are 337 00:20:29,440 --> 00:20:33,240 still around and have this conversation today and, and go 338 00:20:33,240 --> 00:20:38,960 back and try to to distill that and then and then try to use it 339 00:20:38,960 --> 00:20:41,560 to implement in this new. And what did we do right? 340 00:20:42,960 --> 00:20:47,840 First of all, we got lucky in, in cases like the Cuban Missile 341 00:20:47,840 --> 00:20:50,640 crisis. But the other thing was that 342 00:20:50,640 --> 00:20:55,280 again, thinking about the Cuban missile crisis, the position of, 343 00:20:55,600 --> 00:21:00,080 of President Kennedy that he, he decided that he, he, he, he 344 00:21:00,080 --> 00:21:04,480 can't retreat because what was there was Khrushchev's blackmail 345 00:21:04,480 --> 00:21:08,680 by moving those missiles there, you, you, you take a strong 346 00:21:08,680 --> 00:21:13,640 stand and you, you indicate that you, you are, you are prepared 347 00:21:13,640 --> 00:21:18,280 to respond in kind. That's, that's again, as I say, 348 00:21:18,280 --> 00:21:21,000 especially in the new environment created by the last 349 00:21:21,000 --> 00:21:23,920 30 years. That's sounds that as most 350 00:21:23,920 --> 00:21:28,280 irresponsible thing to be said. But, but as a historian, that's, 351 00:21:28,280 --> 00:21:31,800 that's how I see the Cold War and that's how I see where was 352 00:21:31,800 --> 00:21:37,240 the secret that there was no, no beacon global war between 1945 353 00:21:37,320 --> 00:21:43,200 in 1991 or 1989, depending on how you how you look at the end 354 00:21:43,200 --> 00:21:46,840 of the Cold War. So considering the fact that we 355 00:21:46,840 --> 00:21:50,040 have an actual and very bloody war happening in Europe right 356 00:21:50,040 --> 00:21:53,560 now, considering the fact that I'm sorry, Mr. Putin, we know 357 00:21:53,560 --> 00:21:57,520 who the aggressor is and it's. You the the fact. 358 00:21:57,520 --> 00:22:00,040 That we've got Trump in the White House who's not holding a 359 00:22:00,040 --> 00:22:02,720 firm line. How dangerous is that for us? 360 00:22:03,680 --> 00:22:06,840 Well, it is it is extremely dangerous because we are in the 361 00:22:06,840 --> 00:22:12,920 new world on in many ways, the what is happening in the world 362 00:22:12,920 --> 00:22:17,560 now reminds me of the 1930s Great Depression, Great 363 00:22:17,560 --> 00:22:22,960 Recession, the rise of populism, nationalism, aggression, use of 364 00:22:22,960 --> 00:22:26,320 the minorities card and nationality card. 365 00:22:26,800 --> 00:22:29,520 So the the the that's. An alarming comparison. 366 00:22:29,520 --> 00:22:32,720 Some people would say that's exaggerated when you consider 367 00:22:32,720 --> 00:22:35,160 how that ended, but you would say no. 368 00:22:35,520 --> 00:22:38,760 I, I, I, I certainly think that this is not exaggerated. 369 00:22:38,760 --> 00:22:43,160 And the, the question is how we can preclude it from going 370 00:22:43,520 --> 00:22:46,720 where, where it is going. It, it looks like we know where 371 00:22:46,720 --> 00:22:49,040 it can end. So that, that, that's, that 372 00:22:49,040 --> 00:22:52,800 that's, that's an alarm bell that we should take seriously 373 00:22:52,800 --> 00:22:57,400 and not dismiss that as so. But but where, where I was 374 00:22:57,400 --> 00:23:01,120 heading with all of that, that to a degree, we're in worse 375 00:23:01,120 --> 00:23:06,240 situation now than we were back in the 1930s because all of this 376 00:23:06,640 --> 00:23:10,560 populism and other things, it captured good part of Europe. 377 00:23:11,000 --> 00:23:15,000 But US was saved to a degree by Atlantic Ocean or by, by, by 378 00:23:15,120 --> 00:23:18,760 something else. Now, the populism, the rise of 379 00:23:18,760 --> 00:23:22,960 the authoritarian tendencies, US is right in the center of that. 380 00:23:23,520 --> 00:23:27,760 And that is really challenge for Europe, but also opportunity for 381 00:23:27,760 --> 00:23:31,520 Europe. So it's time, it's time to grow 382 00:23:31,520 --> 00:23:37,400 up and it it's time to start thinking and relying on on 383 00:23:37,400 --> 00:23:43,760 Europe and European enormous economic, economic potential to 384 00:23:44,320 --> 00:23:49,320 find the way how to defend Europe in the situation where 385 00:23:49,920 --> 00:23:57,640 there are clear signs that that US tries to retreat on the 386 00:23:57,640 --> 00:23:59,760 other, on the other side of the Atlantic. 387 00:23:59,760 --> 00:24:02,880 And again, we can say, OK, this is this is President Trump. 388 00:24:03,360 --> 00:24:07,120 But the reorientation of American foreign policy toward 389 00:24:07,120 --> 00:24:12,000 the Pacific started under Obama that those were also hopes and 390 00:24:12,000 --> 00:24:15,400 expectations of President Biden. But then of course the war in 391 00:24:15,400 --> 00:24:19,880 Ukraine started, so we are witnessing a major shift on the 392 00:24:19,880 --> 00:24:23,240 international arena. So for Europe is the time to to 393 00:24:23,240 --> 00:24:28,240 wake up and not to dismiss parallels with 1930s as as just 394 00:24:28,240 --> 00:24:31,680 pure exaggeration. So to be clear, you've got in 395 00:24:31,680 --> 00:24:35,320 Russia an actual aggressor, you know, against the sovereign 396 00:24:35,320 --> 00:24:38,960 European territory. You've got in China a an 397 00:24:38,960 --> 00:24:43,640 opportunistic at best, confrontational worst former 398 00:24:43,640 --> 00:24:46,200 ally and market that is being decoupled. 399 00:24:46,680 --> 00:24:51,120 You've got in the United States, you know, an Uncle Sam who's 400 00:24:51,120 --> 00:24:55,360 become rogue, let's put it this way, unreliable who may not show 401 00:24:55,360 --> 00:24:57,480 up. So what you're left with is the 402 00:24:57,480 --> 00:25:01,640 survivors club of liberal democracy in the the European 403 00:25:01,640 --> 00:25:05,440 Union in in Europe. You put it exceptionally well. 404 00:25:05,440 --> 00:25:07,800 Yeah, I, I, I Thank you. I've been thinking about it a 405 00:25:07,800 --> 00:25:10,760 lot like you. And so this survivors club is 406 00:25:10,760 --> 00:25:13,440 divided, right? It's possible that some of the 407 00:25:13,440 --> 00:25:16,120 most powerful nations in this club are going to be run by far 408 00:25:16,120 --> 00:25:20,440 right wingers, the Afd in Germany, Ras Oblomo Nacional in 409 00:25:20,440 --> 00:25:24,680 France, who are flirting with authoritarianism themselves. 410 00:25:25,040 --> 00:25:27,360 Yes, the, the, the, this is what is happening. 411 00:25:27,360 --> 00:25:32,240 And again, the, I think as a historian, what that reminds me 412 00:25:32,240 --> 00:25:37,160 about is 1930s. So what that means is that the 413 00:25:37,160 --> 00:25:40,600 frontline, we were talking about the, the frontline in Ukraine, 414 00:25:40,600 --> 00:25:43,600 the frontline in the US in, in President Trump's head. 415 00:25:43,960 --> 00:25:49,160 So for Europe, the frontline is not only there where Ukrainians 416 00:25:49,160 --> 00:25:55,040 are keeping, keeping the Russian forces or where the, the Poles 417 00:25:55,040 --> 00:26:00,080 are trying to shoot down the Russian drones or, or the, the 418 00:26:00,160 --> 00:26:04,680 intercept the, the, the, the planes are trying to intercept 419 00:26:04,680 --> 00:26:07,080 the, the Russian jets in, in Northern Europe. 420 00:26:07,600 --> 00:26:11,520 The frontline is within, within each individual country itself. 421 00:26:11,520 --> 00:26:15,240 And that's the frontline between democracy and whatever forces 422 00:26:15,240 --> 00:26:17,960 are that presents threat to that democracy. 423 00:26:18,840 --> 00:26:26,160 Again, it's, it's, it's, it maybe sounded as, as a 424 00:26:26,160 --> 00:26:30,720 exaggeration, but again, what, what you are saying and that 425 00:26:30,720 --> 00:26:35,680 that's what certainly I, I, I see when and what I, what I read 426 00:26:35,680 --> 00:26:41,880 and, and what, what I feel being in Europe that is that that is 427 00:26:41,880 --> 00:26:44,280 the reality. There is more than more than one 428 00:26:44,280 --> 00:26:46,800 frontline. And thank God the one within 429 00:26:46,800 --> 00:26:48,880 within European Union is political. 430 00:26:49,200 --> 00:26:51,960 Are we sleepwalking in Europe towards catastrophe? 431 00:26:53,200 --> 00:26:58,280 I hope not, because at least the, the language that is being 432 00:26:58,280 --> 00:27:02,000 used is the right language, including in Germany. 433 00:27:03,000 --> 00:27:08,000 The, the pronouncements that are being made in, in support of 434 00:27:08,000 --> 00:27:12,400 Ukraine are, are, I think, very real and strong. 435 00:27:12,800 --> 00:27:17,200 So the, the task is really to match the, the, the rhetoric 436 00:27:17,200 --> 00:27:19,480 and, and, and, and, and, and deeds. 437 00:27:20,760 --> 00:27:25,440 Because again, at this point, US stopped supplying Ukraine with 438 00:27:26,200 --> 00:27:30,880 the, the weapons and it's now Europe that is, that is buying 439 00:27:30,880 --> 00:27:33,280 those weapons. So that's already the act that 440 00:27:33,280 --> 00:27:36,200 demonstrates that at least on certain level, there is 441 00:27:36,200 --> 00:27:38,800 serialization How, how dangerous it is. 442 00:27:38,800 --> 00:27:40,880 So I hope we are not sleepwalking. 443 00:27:40,960 --> 00:27:43,400 But just briefly. I mean, Trump has been much more 444 00:27:43,400 --> 00:27:46,560 hostile towards Zelensky than towards Putin in public at 445 00:27:46,560 --> 00:27:48,160 least. He's been much more hostile 446 00:27:48,160 --> 00:27:51,680 towards the European Union as a body then he has been even to 447 00:27:51,680 --> 00:27:53,880 Zelensky. He's called it a way of fleecing 448 00:27:53,880 --> 00:27:57,000 the United States. This isn't helpful for the 449 00:27:57,000 --> 00:28:00,720 survival of Europe. Well, it is. 450 00:28:01,000 --> 00:28:02,760 Or maybe it is. Exactly it. 451 00:28:02,760 --> 00:28:04,000 Depends. Maybe it's concentrating 452 00:28:04,000 --> 00:28:06,120 European minds. OK. 453 00:28:06,120 --> 00:28:09,760 So is the rhetoric like that because that's a great power 454 00:28:09,760 --> 00:28:13,320 rhetoric toward a smaller or medium, medium sized countries? 455 00:28:13,720 --> 00:28:18,840 Well, that's maybe what what Europe needs the the that sort 456 00:28:18,840 --> 00:28:22,000 of wake up call not not just coming from Russia, but also 457 00:28:22,000 --> 00:28:24,280 from the United. So in if you're going back to 458 00:28:24,280 --> 00:28:28,880 the 1930s, we had an emerging Winston Churchill, right? 459 00:28:28,880 --> 00:28:30,920 You know, we had, you know, the Charles de Gaulle. 460 00:28:30,920 --> 00:28:33,600 We had, you know, FDR in the United States. 461 00:28:34,040 --> 00:28:38,000 Who are the Churchills of today? Well, I'm, I'm, I'm looking 462 00:28:38,000 --> 00:28:41,880 around. I, I, I, I, I don't see many of 463 00:28:41,880 --> 00:28:46,600 them, but I, I'm sure that the, the, really the situations like 464 00:28:46,600 --> 00:28:51,720 that, the, the, the, the times of, of trial, they produce 465 00:28:51,720 --> 00:28:53,920 leaders. They produce leaders. 466 00:28:53,920 --> 00:29:00,000 So I hope within a year another maybe electoral cycle, we we'll 467 00:29:00,000 --> 00:29:02,240 see that. And there is the, there is some 468 00:29:02,240 --> 00:29:06,320 hope in Germany now there is some hope in, in other places as 469 00:29:06,320 --> 00:29:08,640 well. So I'm, I'm, I'm, I'm, I'm sure 470 00:29:08,640 --> 00:29:11,280 the leaders, if there is a demand for, for, for a 471 00:29:11,280 --> 00:29:13,920 particular leader, that leader will show up. 472 00:29:14,240 --> 00:29:15,880 I hope we have enough time for that. 473 00:29:16,160 --> 00:29:17,920 I hear what you're saying, but you're not going to make me 474 00:29:17,920 --> 00:29:20,360 sleep any better. That say, hey Ploy, Professor 475 00:29:20,360 --> 00:29:21,600 Ploy, thank you very much indeed. 476 00:29:22,360 --> 00:29:24,640 My pleasure. That's it for this episode of 477 00:29:24,640 --> 00:29:26,280 The Forecast. Hope you enjoyed it. 478 00:29:26,280 --> 00:29:28,680 Sobering stuff. Until next time, goodbye.