1 00:00:00,040 --> 00:00:03,400 At the top of Labour, they feel that they can't win an election 2 00:00:03,400 --> 00:00:08,280 if it is a immigration general election, if they've taken small 3 00:00:08,280 --> 00:00:13,880 boats and these hotels off your television screens, then they're 4 00:00:13,880 --> 00:00:16,800 in play and somehow they can crawl back from the abysmal 5 00:00:16,800 --> 00:00:18,560 ratings that they have at the moment. 6 00:00:18,560 --> 00:00:21,840 But if those issues and that anger is at the top of people's 7 00:00:21,840 --> 00:00:24,800 minds, if it is the most salient issue come the next general 8 00:00:24,800 --> 00:00:27,080 election, I think there are people at the top of the Labour 9 00:00:27,080 --> 00:00:30,160 Party that think they might as well pack their bags and not 10 00:00:30,160 --> 00:00:33,440 even turn up. Hello and welcome to the 11 00:00:33,440 --> 00:00:35,880 forecast. Is the government's immigration 12 00:00:35,880 --> 00:00:39,440 strategy doomed to fail? Despite the tough language, the 13 00:00:39,440 --> 00:00:43,200 one in, one out deal with France and the rapid closure of asylum 14 00:00:43,200 --> 00:00:46,280 hotels, Labour continues to plunge in the polls. 15 00:00:46,440 --> 00:00:50,600 So why is it going so badly? Has Keir Starmer, as many of his 16 00:00:50,600 --> 00:00:55,040 critics charge, played directly into Nigel Farage's hands by 17 00:00:55,040 --> 00:00:58,680 elevating immigration? Or is there a long term plan 18 00:00:58,680 --> 00:01:01,400 that could yet pay off? To discuss, I'm joined by our 19 00:01:01,400 --> 00:01:04,680 community's editor Darshna Soni, who has just been in France 20 00:01:04,680 --> 00:01:08,720 meeting asylum seekers sent back under the new scheme, and by our 21 00:01:08,720 --> 00:01:11,440 political editor Gary Gibbon in Westminster. 22 00:01:11,440 --> 00:01:14,880 Gary, let me start with you. The latest polling has Labour in 23 00:01:14,880 --> 00:01:19,280 a dire situation. To what extent is immigration to 24 00:01:19,280 --> 00:01:22,240 blame for that? It's in play. 25 00:01:22,240 --> 00:01:26,240 It's not everything. When you ask voters to identify 26 00:01:26,240 --> 00:01:30,120 the issues that have driven them away from Labour, people who 27 00:01:30,120 --> 00:01:34,400 voted Labour in 2024, immigration is is up there. 28 00:01:34,680 --> 00:01:36,960 Winter fuel allowance used to be the number one thing they 29 00:01:36,960 --> 00:01:39,080 mentioned quite often. Now it's cost of living. 30 00:01:39,080 --> 00:01:42,000 It's in play. It's a very top player in this 31 00:01:42,000 --> 00:01:44,800 dynamic and it's a dynamic which, as you say, is looking 32 00:01:44,920 --> 00:01:48,560 dire for Labour at the moment. And and and why is that? 33 00:01:48,600 --> 00:01:52,240 Is it because it doesn't appear to have a clear vision on this? 34 00:01:52,760 --> 00:01:56,920 Labour built an enormously broad coalition of voters at the last 35 00:01:56,920 --> 00:02:00,040 election. Shallow, but broad. 36 00:02:00,120 --> 00:02:03,960 And that included a lot of people whose natural inclination 37 00:02:04,640 --> 00:02:06,200 hadn't been Labour over the years. 38 00:02:06,200 --> 00:02:08,759 A lot of them were previous Conservative voters, people 39 00:02:08,759 --> 00:02:12,240 who've now hopped to reform their their attitudes, their 40 00:02:12,240 --> 00:02:16,000 outlook, their priorities were not necessarily a perfect match 41 00:02:16,000 --> 00:02:22,280 for the traditional Labour sell. And they have broken away from 42 00:02:22,280 --> 00:02:24,040 the iceberg. The problem for Labour is 43 00:02:24,040 --> 00:02:26,280 they've broken away in significant numbers and they're 44 00:02:26,280 --> 00:02:28,840 also having a lot of fracturing on the other side. 45 00:02:28,840 --> 00:02:32,480 The voters seem to deeply dislike Labour at the moment and 46 00:02:32,480 --> 00:02:35,120 immigration is one of the components of that. 47 00:02:35,160 --> 00:02:38,320 And Darshney, you've been looking at their current way of 48 00:02:38,320 --> 00:02:40,960 trying to to tackle the immigration issue. 49 00:02:40,960 --> 00:02:42,560 You know, the last government had Rwanda. 50 00:02:42,560 --> 00:02:44,720 This government has one in, one out. 51 00:02:45,560 --> 00:02:47,640 You've been looking at these early days of that policy. 52 00:02:47,640 --> 00:02:49,520 How is it working from what you've been finding? 53 00:02:49,600 --> 00:02:53,440 Well, it's interesting that this was announced to much fanfare 54 00:02:53,440 --> 00:02:55,560 back in July. The government made a big deal 55 00:02:55,560 --> 00:02:59,560 out of this and said that this was going to help deter people 56 00:02:59,560 --> 00:03:01,520 crossing the Channel in small boats. 57 00:03:01,960 --> 00:03:03,720 Now, so far there's only been a small number. 58 00:03:03,720 --> 00:03:06,520 It is only a pilot, but it's really interesting. 59 00:03:06,520 --> 00:03:09,640 We've been to France and met some of those, mainly young men 60 00:03:09,640 --> 00:03:14,160 who have been deported and the picture that they painted was of 61 00:03:14,160 --> 00:03:16,920 a system that's still quite chaotic, it's still not working 62 00:03:16,920 --> 00:03:19,920 as it should be. So for example, we met people 63 00:03:19,920 --> 00:03:24,000 who had come to England and they were detained straight away. 64 00:03:24,800 --> 00:03:27,720 They were held in detention for around 58 days. 65 00:03:27,720 --> 00:03:31,680 Some of those that I spoke to and they weren't told why they 66 00:03:31,680 --> 00:03:35,280 had been singled out, but they told us they had been given the 67 00:03:35,280 --> 00:03:39,440 impression that they'd be able to apply for asylum in France. 68 00:03:39,640 --> 00:03:42,120 Once they get to France, it's a very different story. 69 00:03:42,120 --> 00:03:44,520 So for example, we got footage of the hostel where they're 70 00:03:44,520 --> 00:03:47,680 staying. It's a very cramped place. 71 00:03:47,680 --> 00:03:49,960 There were around 40 people sleeping in one room. 72 00:03:50,640 --> 00:03:53,640 They were told that actually under the Dublin Convention they 73 00:03:53,640 --> 00:03:56,640 won't be able to play, they won't be able to apply for 74 00:03:56,640 --> 00:03:59,520 asylum in France. So actually a lot of them that 75 00:03:59,520 --> 00:04:01,560 we spoke to are now trying to get back to England. 76 00:04:01,560 --> 00:04:05,280 So it just all adds to this perception of the Home Office 77 00:04:05,280 --> 00:04:08,040 being out of control. And you mentioned the Dublin 78 00:04:08,040 --> 00:04:10,560 Convention, which makes us all think back to those days of 79 00:04:10,560 --> 00:04:14,000 Brexit, which in many ways triggered or seemed to to 80 00:04:14,200 --> 00:04:17,600 inflamed the current immigration debate. 81 00:04:18,200 --> 00:04:23,040 Explain how it's working and and why it's relevant to these men. 82 00:04:24,360 --> 00:04:27,400 It's a really important point and it's something that's cited 83 00:04:27,440 --> 00:04:29,920 by a lot of people who are seeking asylum. 84 00:04:30,240 --> 00:04:33,640 We went to Calais as well and almost everybody that we met 85 00:04:33,640 --> 00:04:36,600 there said that because of Dublin they were trying to get 86 00:04:36,600 --> 00:04:38,640 to England because Dublin doesn't apply. 87 00:04:38,920 --> 00:04:43,640 So under the Dublin Agreement, EU EU countries had agreed that 88 00:04:44,080 --> 00:04:47,040 migrants could be sent back to the first country they entered 89 00:04:47,040 --> 00:04:50,120 in Europe and their asylum claim will be processed there. 90 00:04:50,400 --> 00:04:53,800 So as many migrants do, for example, if you're coming and 91 00:04:53,800 --> 00:04:56,280 you're travelling the route from Libya across the Mediterranean, 92 00:04:56,280 --> 00:04:58,800 you might land in Italy, then you might make your way to 93 00:04:58,800 --> 00:05:02,000 France and then to England. Under this arrangement you can 94 00:05:02,000 --> 00:05:04,080 get sent back, for example to Italy. 95 00:05:04,520 --> 00:05:07,000 A lot of people say they only cross through these countries, 96 00:05:07,000 --> 00:05:10,680 obviously because they had to on their way to a place of safety, 97 00:05:10,960 --> 00:05:13,200 and they're worried that if they get sent back to some of these 98 00:05:13,200 --> 00:05:15,880 countries, they may eventually be deported to their countries 99 00:05:15,880 --> 00:05:18,320 of origin. They feel, rightly or wrongly, 100 00:05:18,320 --> 00:05:22,320 that Britain has a much more sympathetic immigration system 101 00:05:22,320 --> 00:05:26,400 to people from certain countries like Eritrea or Sudan where 102 00:05:26,400 --> 00:05:28,720 there has been a civil war since Brexit. 103 00:05:28,720 --> 00:05:31,320 That doesn't apply here, which is why, for example, the Prime 104 00:05:31,320 --> 00:05:34,480 Minister tried to dub these boat crossings the Farage boats. 105 00:05:34,960 --> 00:05:36,960 They're saying that it all started because of Brexit. 106 00:05:36,960 --> 00:05:40,360 Now the only country that we have a returns deal with is 107 00:05:40,360 --> 00:05:42,720 France under this one in one out scheme and. 108 00:05:44,240 --> 00:05:46,120 It's one of the reasons why the men are saying to you they want 109 00:05:46,120 --> 00:05:49,280 to get back here. Yeah, it is a big factor. 110 00:05:49,280 --> 00:05:52,280 And we met people who had settled, for example, in Germany 111 00:05:52,280 --> 00:05:54,920 for many years. Now suddenly in Germany, the 112 00:05:54,920 --> 00:05:57,440 political tide has turned there. They're getting much more 113 00:05:57,440 --> 00:05:59,640 strict. And they're saying that even 114 00:05:59,640 --> 00:06:01,760 though people have settled there for a number of years, waiting 115 00:06:01,760 --> 00:06:04,840 for their asylum claims to be sorted, they're now being told, 116 00:06:04,840 --> 00:06:07,720 no, you can't stay here. And that's happened to people 117 00:06:07,720 --> 00:06:09,160 from a number of different countries. 118 00:06:09,160 --> 00:06:13,000 And a lot of people said to me that England is their last 119 00:06:13,000 --> 00:06:16,000 chance and that's why so many are desperate to get here. 120 00:06:16,880 --> 00:06:20,280 I mean Gary, stop the boats Rwanda, one in one out. 121 00:06:20,280 --> 00:06:23,880 All those short snappy 1 liners don't really get to the 122 00:06:23,880 --> 00:06:27,040 complexity of this issue for successive governments. 123 00:06:27,400 --> 00:06:32,120 If this policy ends up being one out, the same one back again as 124 00:06:32,120 --> 00:06:35,200 Darshner suggests it might how? How problematic would that be 125 00:06:35,200 --> 00:06:38,200 for the Labour government? Oh, enormously problematic. 126 00:06:38,240 --> 00:06:42,200 Labour MPs are in anguish about these headlines. 127 00:06:42,200 --> 00:06:45,160 The idea that you can be sent out of the country and then come 128 00:06:45,480 --> 00:06:50,440 straight back on a on a boat again, yeah. 129 00:06:50,560 --> 00:06:53,600 I don't think they have enormous confidence in the a lot of 130 00:06:53,600 --> 00:06:56,120 Labour MPs in the returns. Those of them who are 131 00:06:56,120 --> 00:06:58,520 particularly concerned about immigration issues and sit in, 132 00:06:58,520 --> 00:07:02,040 for instance, red wall seats where these issues can often be 133 00:07:02,600 --> 00:07:06,360 more prominent, more salient for voters higher up their list of 134 00:07:06,360 --> 00:07:08,800 priorities. They're looking to Shabana 135 00:07:08,800 --> 00:07:12,520 Mahmoud to do a lot of other things, what you might say, 136 00:07:12,520 --> 00:07:18,920 reform leaning, conservative leaning policies to try and get 137 00:07:18,920 --> 00:07:21,440 a grip of what they see as an enormous problem. 138 00:07:21,440 --> 00:07:23,680 And they're, they're interested and you get the impression that 139 00:07:23,680 --> 00:07:28,640 elements of the government are interested in removals to 140 00:07:29,120 --> 00:07:31,840 adjacent third countries to country of origin. 141 00:07:31,840 --> 00:07:35,200 So maybe some exploratory talks going on in the background soon 142 00:07:35,200 --> 00:07:39,720 with countries in Africa that maybe have some sort of more of 143 00:07:39,720 --> 00:07:43,960 a population issue that they welcome additional people coming 144 00:07:43,960 --> 00:07:47,800 to their country, maybe trying to come to deals with some of 145 00:07:47,800 --> 00:07:52,000 those countries and encourage people to go back there. 146 00:07:52,240 --> 00:07:57,800 Also looking, I strongly suspect at the source of policy which 147 00:07:57,800 --> 00:08:03,160 Italy has combined with Albania to do, where you set up a camp 148 00:08:03,160 --> 00:08:09,200 in a third country and you send failed asylum seekers there. 149 00:08:09,200 --> 00:08:13,960 And that is something which Keir Starmer thought he might be onto 150 00:08:13,960 --> 00:08:15,520 a winning ticket with Albania on. 151 00:08:15,520 --> 00:08:17,600 But Albania said, no, we're not having yours. 152 00:08:17,600 --> 00:08:21,360 We're just doing a deal with Italy, no other country. 153 00:08:21,800 --> 00:08:24,040 They don't want to appear as a dumping ground. 154 00:08:24,040 --> 00:08:25,880 They have their own country's image to think about. 155 00:08:25,880 --> 00:08:28,320 They that was one of the arguments that came out from 156 00:08:28,320 --> 00:08:30,080 Albania. But there are other countries 157 00:08:30,080 --> 00:08:32,320 and you get a strong sense that the exploratory talks are going 158 00:08:32,320 --> 00:08:34,679 on a lot in the background, exploring that. 159 00:08:34,679 --> 00:08:37,280 And these these camps, if you have a look at some of the 160 00:08:37,280 --> 00:08:40,799 footage there, they've got air conditioning units on the side 161 00:08:40,799 --> 00:08:45,080 of a very small room. So it it, it would feel a lot 162 00:08:45,080 --> 00:08:47,960 like some sort of prison in a hot climate. 163 00:08:48,240 --> 00:08:50,800 And it's not quite clear what happens to people once they've 164 00:08:50,800 --> 00:08:52,080 arrived there. Well, you know, what is their 165 00:08:52,080 --> 00:08:54,360 next destination? What's the path of their life 166 00:08:54,360 --> 00:08:57,160 beyond this? But nonetheless, this is stuff 167 00:08:57,160 --> 00:08:59,880 which at the top of government is being considered and 168 00:08:59,880 --> 00:09:03,640 pondered. So yeah, one in, one out, not 169 00:09:03,960 --> 00:09:07,240 looking like it's going to change the dial for Labour on 170 00:09:07,240 --> 00:09:11,840 the politics of of illegal migration, but other areas are 171 00:09:11,840 --> 00:09:14,040 being looked at and they're quite hard line some of them. 172 00:09:15,400 --> 00:09:18,080 I mean, Darshner, part of the difficulty for all the 173 00:09:18,080 --> 00:09:23,880 politicians presumably is that immigration, asylum, they've all 174 00:09:23,880 --> 00:09:28,640 become inextricably linked with this idea that, you know, it's a 175 00:09:28,720 --> 00:09:32,040 0 sum game with people who are struggling very specifically, 176 00:09:32,240 --> 00:09:35,320 not just a broad working class, but the white working class. 177 00:09:35,320 --> 00:09:37,280 I mean, what are you finding on the ground? 178 00:09:40,160 --> 00:09:43,200 So here in the UK, what's interesting is that it has 179 00:09:43,200 --> 00:09:47,760 become one of the most defining and divisive issues of our 180 00:09:47,760 --> 00:09:50,760 times, and small boats in particular. 181 00:09:50,760 --> 00:09:54,000 They're just such a visual representation of this problem 182 00:09:54,600 --> 00:09:56,720 and it does make people very angry. 183 00:09:56,720 --> 00:10:00,320 So yesterday, for example, we looked at this report that the 184 00:10:00,320 --> 00:10:02,960 Home Affairs Select Committee did about the amount of money 185 00:10:02,960 --> 00:10:06,720 being spent on asylum. And if you are in a town and you 186 00:10:06,760 --> 00:10:09,480 are struggling with the cost of living and you feel like you 187 00:10:09,480 --> 00:10:11,320 can't get a point, an appointment at the doctor's 188 00:10:11,320 --> 00:10:14,320 surgery and you feel that, you know, your kids school is 189 00:10:14,320 --> 00:10:16,080 overcrowded. These things might not 190 00:10:16,080 --> 00:10:19,440 necessarily be linked to asylum, but that link has been made in 191 00:10:19,440 --> 00:10:22,080 certain narratives. And people are watching the 192 00:10:22,080 --> 00:10:23,600 headlines. They're seeing the images of 193 00:10:23,600 --> 00:10:26,320 these boats coming in. And then they're hearing that 194 00:10:26,440 --> 00:10:29,840 the amount of money that we're spending on asylum has gone up 195 00:10:29,840 --> 00:10:35,080 from something like 4.5 billion, it has tripled now to £15 196 00:10:35,080 --> 00:10:37,840 billion. And this is at a time when we're 197 00:10:37,840 --> 00:10:40,560 hearing that Rachel Reeves is struggling to balance the books, 198 00:10:40,560 --> 00:10:43,600 that taxes might have to go up, that businesses might be hit. 199 00:10:44,000 --> 00:10:47,840 So this is this is fuelling resentment when these things 200 00:10:47,840 --> 00:10:50,600 keep being linked and there are people out there who are angry 201 00:10:50,600 --> 00:10:53,800 and they just see successive government, successive home 202 00:10:53,800 --> 00:10:57,280 secretaries unable to get a grip on the situation. 203 00:10:57,880 --> 00:11:00,560 But it's interesting, isn't it, that often that anger is 204 00:11:00,560 --> 00:11:04,120 directed at asylum seekers and migrants rather? 205 00:11:04,120 --> 00:11:07,280 I mean, you could reasonably be really furious at the government 206 00:11:07,280 --> 00:11:10,280 for the terrible contracts that they've had on these asylum 207 00:11:10,280 --> 00:11:13,000 seekers. You could be reasonably enraged 208 00:11:13,000 --> 00:11:15,120 by the private companies making money. 209 00:11:15,760 --> 00:11:20,320 But it's often this idea as, as I found myself, you know, in 210 00:11:20,320 --> 00:11:22,760 parts of Middlesbrough where people will say they get 211 00:11:22,760 --> 00:11:26,600 everything and we get nothing. So that is a huge issue and 212 00:11:26,600 --> 00:11:28,880 that's what was so interesting about this Select Committee 213 00:11:28,880 --> 00:11:31,800 report. The amount of profit that these 214 00:11:31,800 --> 00:11:34,760 private companies are making doesn't get talked about. 215 00:11:35,240 --> 00:11:38,120 And some of the terms of those contracts, I mean, there was a 216 00:11:38,120 --> 00:11:40,320 lot of criticism yesterday because people were saying that 217 00:11:40,320 --> 00:11:42,720 when these contracts were set up, the civil servants 218 00:11:42,880 --> 00:11:45,960 responsible for overseeing it didn't understand how private 219 00:11:45,960 --> 00:11:48,560 contracts work. Within those contracts there are 220 00:11:48,560 --> 00:11:52,160 no clauses, for example, no penalties for the companies if 221 00:11:52,160 --> 00:11:54,280 they provide substandard accommodation. 222 00:11:54,720 --> 00:11:58,040 And although we constantly hear this narrative that asylum 223 00:11:58,040 --> 00:12:00,960 seekers are in plush hotels, that they are given free 224 00:12:00,960 --> 00:12:04,760 housing, I've visited a lot of this housing all over the 225 00:12:04,760 --> 00:12:06,240 country. I've been to a lot of these 226 00:12:06,240 --> 00:12:09,560 hotels and some of the conditions are grim inside, 227 00:12:09,880 --> 00:12:13,520 especially in some of the Hmos when they're dispersed from 228 00:12:13,520 --> 00:12:15,880 hotels out in the into the communities. 229 00:12:16,320 --> 00:12:18,960 Yes, they have got a roof over the head and they are given a 230 00:12:18,960 --> 00:12:21,360 weekly allowance whilst their claim is heard. 231 00:12:21,920 --> 00:12:24,960 But by no means are they living in luxury. 232 00:12:24,960 --> 00:12:27,800 And I know that many people in government get frustrated at the 233 00:12:27,800 --> 00:12:29,880 fact that they haven't been able to communicate this. 234 00:12:29,880 --> 00:12:33,560 And the narrative is that people are, you know, living a life of 235 00:12:33,560 --> 00:12:37,080 Riley, that they are living in luxury and that they aren't 236 00:12:37,080 --> 00:12:39,120 working when actually they're not allowed to work. 237 00:12:39,120 --> 00:12:41,800 That is a huge issue for many of these asylum seekers. 238 00:12:43,480 --> 00:12:46,000 And that is a very real problem for the government isn't it, 239 00:12:46,000 --> 00:12:48,640 That narrative, if you can't, you can Fact Check it all you 240 00:12:48,640 --> 00:12:51,760 like and you can say to people they don't get iPhones, you 241 00:12:51,760 --> 00:12:55,120 know, they're not living with big wide screen televisions, 242 00:12:55,120 --> 00:12:57,960 perhaps they're living, as Darshana suggests, sometimes 243 00:12:57,960 --> 00:13:01,480 quite grim existences. But at the same time, you know, 244 00:13:01,480 --> 00:13:02,960 that narrative has taken hold, Gary. 245 00:13:02,960 --> 00:13:05,240 And what does a Labour government do about it? 246 00:13:06,040 --> 00:13:09,040 Yeah, they they try to reduce the salience of the issue 247 00:13:09,040 --> 00:13:12,160 because I think at the top of Labour they feel that they can't 248 00:13:12,160 --> 00:13:16,720 win an election if it is a immigration general election. 249 00:13:16,720 --> 00:13:19,360 They can win an election if they have neutralized the issue, if 250 00:13:19,360 --> 00:13:22,360 they've made people think there is real progress happening, if 251 00:13:22,360 --> 00:13:27,000 they've taken small boats and these hotels off your television 252 00:13:27,000 --> 00:13:31,560 screens, then they're in play and somehow they can crawl back 253 00:13:31,560 --> 00:13:34,560 from the abysmal ratings that they have at the moment. 254 00:13:34,560 --> 00:13:37,840 But if those issues and that anger is at the top of people's 255 00:13:37,840 --> 00:13:40,840 minds, if it is the most salient issue come the next general 256 00:13:40,840 --> 00:13:43,080 election, I think there are people at the top of the Labour 257 00:13:43,080 --> 00:13:46,400 Party that think they might as well pack their bags and, and 258 00:13:46,400 --> 00:13:51,000 not even turn up because it it could be very, very grim indeed. 259 00:13:51,000 --> 00:13:54,280 It's interesting how they're trying to trying so many 260 00:13:54,280 --> 00:13:58,440 different levers Labour to neutralize this issue. 261 00:13:58,640 --> 00:14:02,000 And sometimes they do it with a little whiff of what you might 262 00:14:02,000 --> 00:14:08,200 call opposition politics, not necessarily the most worked out 263 00:14:08,320 --> 00:14:12,480 policy document in front of you, considering the many, many 264 00:14:12,920 --> 00:14:16,960 officials that lurk in Whitehall and could Polish these things 265 00:14:16,960 --> 00:14:19,160 up. Today we've been hearing about 266 00:14:19,160 --> 00:14:21,800 barracks being used. When you probe a little about 267 00:14:21,800 --> 00:14:26,360 how ready those plans are used for people who are currently in 268 00:14:26,360 --> 00:14:29,600 hotels, fairly small number of them being talked about, two 269 00:14:29,600 --> 00:14:32,040 areas being talked about. But when you probe, it doesn't 270 00:14:32,040 --> 00:14:34,120 sound as though it's incredibly worked out. 271 00:14:34,280 --> 00:14:36,320 And then of course we had another, we had a speech from 272 00:14:36,480 --> 00:14:39,600 Keir Starmer just before the Labour Party conference when he 273 00:14:39,600 --> 00:14:44,560 was talking about digital ID. And again, it didn't sound like 274 00:14:44,560 --> 00:14:46,320 the thing was remotely worked out. 275 00:14:46,680 --> 00:14:50,720 It has applications potentially across the whole realm of of 276 00:14:50,720 --> 00:14:53,640 people's lives. But he, he was selling it in 277 00:14:53,640 --> 00:14:58,680 some big way as part of the solution to illegal migration 278 00:14:58,880 --> 00:15:01,480 and yet the thing hadn't been fully worked out. 279 00:15:01,480 --> 00:15:05,480 So they are busy, they are shoving stuff out the door. 280 00:15:06,280 --> 00:15:11,400 It isn't always, to mix my metaphors, fully cooked, But 281 00:15:12,120 --> 00:15:13,760 yeah, they don't, they don't have a solution. 282 00:15:13,760 --> 00:15:14,880 They're trying to put a lot of levers. 283 00:15:14,880 --> 00:15:17,640 Remember the conventions, we haven't talked about those, the 284 00:15:18,160 --> 00:15:22,240 ECHR, the Refugee Convention, They're interested in trying to 285 00:15:22,240 --> 00:15:25,720 get changes to the way courts interpret those. 286 00:15:25,720 --> 00:15:28,360 And they think they have allies in Europe to help on those 287 00:15:28,360 --> 00:15:29,720 fronts as well. The sort of thing, though, that 288 00:15:30,120 --> 00:15:32,400 Labour governments would never have counted in the past. 289 00:15:32,640 --> 00:15:36,720 Now in play and and and you. Talk about them, them trying to, 290 00:15:36,800 --> 00:15:40,840 to, to workout where they should be on this, You know, it is 291 00:15:40,840 --> 00:15:42,600 their strategy. In the end, you say, to remove 292 00:15:42,600 --> 00:15:44,800 the salience. Is it in a way to desperately 293 00:15:44,800 --> 00:15:47,880 try to not talk about it? Because a big part of the 294 00:15:47,880 --> 00:15:50,400 problem, you know, we saw Keir Starmer with his Islands of 295 00:15:50,400 --> 00:15:54,120 Strangers speech, which many of his own MP said had echoes of 296 00:15:54,360 --> 00:15:56,520 Enoch Powell. And he was forced to say that he 297 00:15:56,520 --> 00:15:59,760 he was sorry about the use of that language. 298 00:15:59,880 --> 00:16:03,200 You then had a sort of about turn with him calling reform 299 00:16:03,200 --> 00:16:06,800 plans to end indefinite leave to remain racist. 300 00:16:06,800 --> 00:16:11,720 And politicians don't generally like to to be as definitive as 301 00:16:11,720 --> 00:16:14,120 that. It's it's hard to see where 302 00:16:14,120 --> 00:16:18,600 Labour sit compared to the much more definitive position, say of 303 00:16:18,600 --> 00:16:21,240 reform and now a resurgent Green Party. 304 00:16:21,600 --> 00:16:23,160 It's very. Interesting those moments you 305 00:16:23,160 --> 00:16:26,960 talked about there on Keir Starmer's journey on this issue, 306 00:16:26,960 --> 00:16:31,520 the Island of Strangers speech. I remember sitting under under 307 00:16:31,520 --> 00:16:34,440 his nose as he delivered it and asking him afterwards. 308 00:16:34,440 --> 00:16:37,880 You know that that that didn't sound like you, but he delivered 309 00:16:37,960 --> 00:16:39,760 nonetheless, recanted of it later. 310 00:16:39,880 --> 00:16:42,240 And then when he came off the stage after that speech you've 311 00:16:42,240 --> 00:16:45,920 just referred to at the Labour Party conference when he attacks 312 00:16:46,320 --> 00:16:51,520 reform, he said to someone in the wings as he came off the 313 00:16:51,520 --> 00:16:54,800 stage, that was me. I felt what he was saying was I, 314 00:16:54,800 --> 00:16:57,360 I felt good about that. Most people are too young to 315 00:16:57,360 --> 00:16:59,640 remember Mike Yard, an impressionist who would say, and 316 00:16:59,640 --> 00:17:02,040 this is me at the end of all his impressions and pull off an 317 00:17:02,040 --> 00:17:04,640 imaginary mask. He, he clearly felt that he was 318 00:17:04,640 --> 00:17:06,960 saying something that was true to himself that he felt 319 00:17:06,960 --> 00:17:09,319 comfortable with. Certainly the case watching his 320 00:17:09,720 --> 00:17:13,560 party in the hall at Liverpool, that they felt comfortable with 321 00:17:13,560 --> 00:17:14,880 it. They were basking in it and 322 00:17:15,240 --> 00:17:17,000 applauding it. They loved the fact that he was 323 00:17:17,000 --> 00:17:22,599 actually going for reform rather than, as he sometimes can sound, 324 00:17:22,720 --> 00:17:26,599 some people aping them. Whether this all means there's 325 00:17:26,599 --> 00:17:30,440 an absolute shift in Labour policy, well, you know, he just 326 00:17:30,520 --> 00:17:35,160 constructed an entire reshuffle around trying to get Shabana 327 00:17:35,160 --> 00:17:39,160 Mahmoud in as home secretary and moved a lot of other pieces on 328 00:17:39,160 --> 00:17:40,880 his chess board to make that happen. 329 00:17:41,160 --> 00:17:45,680 And he was doing that because she represents a harder line 330 00:17:45,680 --> 00:17:48,720 approach and might just implement some of those policies 331 00:17:48,720 --> 00:17:52,240 I was talking about a moment ago, which go way, way outside 332 00:17:52,240 --> 00:17:54,280 Labour's conventional comfort zone. 333 00:17:54,280 --> 00:17:56,800 So which is the real key? We still, I mean, he's, he's 334 00:17:56,800 --> 00:18:00,280 still sort of mid Mike Yarwood. He's, we're not really quite 335 00:18:00,280 --> 00:18:03,920 sure where he's going with this, but he was definitely more 336 00:18:03,920 --> 00:18:06,880 comfortable singing that song at party conference. 337 00:18:08,000 --> 00:18:10,480 I'm definitely old enough to remember who Mike Yarwood is, 338 00:18:10,480 --> 00:18:14,560 even if nobody else is Darshna. I mean, on the ground, I know 339 00:18:14,560 --> 00:18:18,400 it's very difficult, but on the ground, you know, the government 340 00:18:18,400 --> 00:18:22,720 may hope to to take the air out of the balloon if you like. 341 00:18:23,320 --> 00:18:26,640 Reformer, not going to want to do that on the ground. 342 00:18:26,800 --> 00:18:30,640 The communities that you talk to, do you think immigration 343 00:18:30,640 --> 00:18:35,120 will remain a really, really difficult, important issue for 344 00:18:35,120 --> 00:18:38,200 them? I think it will at the minute, 345 00:18:38,200 --> 00:18:41,160 as long as we keep seeing the images of those boats coming 346 00:18:41,160 --> 00:18:45,000 over, as long as we keep hearing about Home Office chaos. 347 00:18:45,000 --> 00:18:50,200 I mean, whilst we were filming in Paris on Friday, you couldn't 348 00:18:50,200 --> 00:18:53,120 make it up. That's when we got news about 349 00:18:53,160 --> 00:18:55,920 the immigrant sex offender from the Bell Hotel being 350 00:18:55,920 --> 00:18:58,280 accidentally released. I mean, it was like some sort of 351 00:18:58,280 --> 00:19:00,840 farce. As soon as we, you know, these 352 00:19:00,840 --> 00:19:04,760 kind of stories just keep it up there and they just add to this 353 00:19:05,120 --> 00:19:08,600 impression of incompetence. And I've spoken to a lot of 354 00:19:08,600 --> 00:19:11,640 people who have said the Tories couldn't get a grip of it. 355 00:19:11,640 --> 00:19:13,080 Now Labour can't get a grip of it. 356 00:19:13,080 --> 00:19:16,800 We might as well try reform. People who wouldn't necessarily 357 00:19:16,800 --> 00:19:20,560 vote for reform or say that they don't agree with for reform on 358 00:19:20,560 --> 00:19:24,560 all of their policies now feel that they might be the only ones 359 00:19:24,600 --> 00:19:27,000 or they they should be given a chance because everybody else 360 00:19:27,000 --> 00:19:30,400 has tried but failed. And, you know, there are all 361 00:19:30,400 --> 00:19:33,400 sorts of people who feel that sometimes we as journalists give 362 00:19:33,400 --> 00:19:35,960 it too much prominence and we're feeding that narrative. 363 00:19:36,440 --> 00:19:39,240 And there's, you know, but in that climate, it is in the 364 00:19:39,240 --> 00:19:42,400 headlines every single day. It is a talking point. 365 00:19:42,640 --> 00:19:46,480 And as long as people are making that link, that is a worry for 366 00:19:46,480 --> 00:19:48,440 the government. As Gary said, I mean in. 367 00:19:48,720 --> 00:19:52,560 In a sense, what, what this debate has become in, in in many 368 00:19:52,560 --> 00:19:56,560 parts of the country has been very focused around, you know, 369 00:19:56,600 --> 00:20:00,320 what maybe 10 years ago would have been defined as a broad 370 00:20:00,320 --> 00:20:02,640 working classes. Now very specifically, many 371 00:20:02,640 --> 00:20:05,320 people would say for specific reasons being defined as white 372 00:20:05,320 --> 00:20:08,120 working class and what they are not getting and what they are 373 00:20:08,120 --> 00:20:11,480 losing out on. And that is a, an area of 374 00:20:11,480 --> 00:20:13,120 problem for the government, isn't it? 375 00:20:13,160 --> 00:20:13,720 It's a. It's a. 376 00:20:13,760 --> 00:20:16,720 It's a huge problem and, and they're very focused on it 377 00:20:16,720 --> 00:20:22,440 inside #10 I think they think there's a section of the what we 378 00:20:22,440 --> 00:20:28,480 might call white working class vote that they picked up in, in 379 00:20:28,480 --> 00:20:31,040 the last general election which is lost to them forever. 380 00:20:31,120 --> 00:20:34,440 Which is much, which is, which has moved from the Conservatives 381 00:20:34,440 --> 00:20:37,320 temporarily used Labour as a tool with which to get the 382 00:20:37,320 --> 00:20:42,200 Tories out and has now hopped away from a very long hop over 383 00:20:42,600 --> 00:20:45,600 to Reform, not coming back. There are others who are more 384 00:20:45,600 --> 00:20:49,880 biddable, who are similar but not as strident in their views 385 00:20:51,040 --> 00:20:54,080 and maybe not as despairing, maybe not as utterly 386 00:20:54,080 --> 00:20:56,000 pessimistic. And Labour thinks if they can 387 00:20:56,800 --> 00:20:59,600 neutralize this issue, bring bring the election back to 388 00:20:59,640 --> 00:21:03,280 issues like public services where they Labour don't think 389 00:21:03,280 --> 00:21:06,600 Nigel Farage is as strong, that there's a chance of pulling back 390 00:21:06,600 --> 00:21:08,880 that segment of votes and Arshan 1. 391 00:21:08,880 --> 00:21:12,080 Of the other things that perhaps is a consequence of, of where 392 00:21:12,080 --> 00:21:15,040 this debate has gone, you know, people talk about it as a toxic 393 00:21:15,040 --> 00:21:17,360 debate in, in, in many parts of the country. 394 00:21:17,640 --> 00:21:21,280 People say that, you know, talking about valid concerns. 395 00:21:21,840 --> 00:21:24,760 There's a, there's a very thin line sometimes between that and 396 00:21:24,760 --> 00:21:27,320 out and out racism. And I just wonder, you know what 397 00:21:27,320 --> 00:21:29,880 again you're seeing from your reporting on the ground. 398 00:21:29,960 --> 00:21:33,000 It's an interesting. Debate isn't it because often 399 00:21:33,000 --> 00:21:36,680 when I travel to different areas, people will start 400 00:21:36,680 --> 00:21:40,120 speaking to me and they will always say I'm not racist. 401 00:21:40,920 --> 00:21:43,440 Before you've even started the conversation or before you've 402 00:21:43,440 --> 00:21:45,200 even asked them about their views or anything. 403 00:21:45,200 --> 00:21:49,200 People, there is a perception that talking about this will be 404 00:21:50,360 --> 00:21:52,840 will somehow earn you the label of being a racist. 405 00:21:53,200 --> 00:21:57,720 And you know, we hear it from politicians all of the time. 406 00:21:57,720 --> 00:21:59,640 Nigel Farage has made a big thing about this. 407 00:21:59,640 --> 00:22:01,760 There was the issue with Sarah poaching talking about 408 00:22:01,760 --> 00:22:04,120 advertising. And it was interesting. 409 00:22:04,120 --> 00:22:07,960 Gary was saying about Keir Starmer feeling comfortable now 410 00:22:07,960 --> 00:22:10,120 taking on reforms. It's interesting how quickly W 411 00:22:10,120 --> 00:22:12,200 Streeting came out at the weekend and used the R word. 412 00:22:12,200 --> 00:22:14,520 He actually used racism when he was talking about this. 413 00:22:14,920 --> 00:22:18,400 So it's one of those interesting things that people feel very 414 00:22:18,400 --> 00:22:20,320 uncomfortable. And I think still talking about 415 00:22:20,320 --> 00:22:23,320 it and the politics around it has been very, very toxic. 416 00:22:23,480 --> 00:22:26,280 It's tied up with things like the issue of the flags, how 417 00:22:26,280 --> 00:22:28,960 black and Asian people are made to feel at the minute, that 418 00:22:28,960 --> 00:22:31,760 whole debate about whether it is patriotism or whether it's an 419 00:22:31,760 --> 00:22:35,040 obvious symbol that brings back memories of the 70s and 80s and 420 00:22:35,040 --> 00:22:38,480 the National Front and so on. So it is a very difficult, toxic 421 00:22:38,480 --> 00:22:42,280 debate at the moment, not helped by social media, some of the 422 00:22:42,280 --> 00:22:45,480 influence of people from America that we're seeing playing out 423 00:22:45,480 --> 00:22:47,680 here. It is just a very, very toxic 424 00:22:47,680 --> 00:22:51,560 time. And people feel that some of the 425 00:22:51,560 --> 00:22:54,160 language and some of the way that we speak to each other 426 00:22:54,160 --> 00:22:56,600 about it has just become very, very difficult. 427 00:22:56,840 --> 00:22:58,800 And Gary, just. To finish, I mean if as you've 428 00:22:58,800 --> 00:23:01,440 talked about, you know, they hope to take the salience out of 429 00:23:01,440 --> 00:23:06,920 this, this subject, how likely is that it's all very. 430 00:23:06,920 --> 00:23:09,840 Well, for Labour to say they want to reduce the salience of 431 00:23:10,000 --> 00:23:12,720 immigration and get people talking about cost of living and 432 00:23:12,880 --> 00:23:15,560 public services, but they they haven't got a great tune to 433 00:23:15,560 --> 00:23:19,800 whistle yet on those two. And that is one of the reasons 434 00:23:19,800 --> 00:23:23,400 why Labour is in such a miserable place in the polls and 435 00:23:23,400 --> 00:23:27,320 staring potentially at horrible results next May. 436 00:23:27,720 --> 00:23:31,800 So yeah, they have to get that side of things working. 437 00:23:31,800 --> 00:23:36,920 That's their avowed intent. But so far it's not producing 438 00:23:36,920 --> 00:23:38,120 many goods. And of course, we have the 439 00:23:38,120 --> 00:23:43,200 budget coming up at the end of November, which might just make 440 00:23:43,200 --> 00:23:45,000 life even more difficult for quite a few people. 441 00:23:45,040 --> 00:23:46,920 Gary Gibbon. Darsh Nasani, both of you, 442 00:23:46,920 --> 00:23:48,840 thanks very much for talking to me today. 443 00:23:48,840 --> 00:23:51,080 That is it for this episode of The Forecast. 444 00:23:51,320 --> 00:23:52,760 Until next time, goodbye.