1 00:00:00,040 --> 00:00:03,880 ISIS will be looking at the situation and trying to identify 2 00:00:04,160 --> 00:00:07,640 any possibilities for having some sort of a resurrection. 3 00:00:07,640 --> 00:00:10,120 The. Kurds were doing, as it were, 4 00:00:10,120 --> 00:00:13,120 The Dirty work for the worst, particularly the Americans. 5 00:00:13,160 --> 00:00:15,840 The Kurds, they will see this as a huge blow. 6 00:00:16,320 --> 00:00:21,240 Many of them do not want to be integrated completely into a 7 00:00:21,240 --> 00:00:24,240 centralized Syrian state. I think there's a great danger 8 00:00:24,240 --> 00:00:27,440 of continued guerrilla warfare. There isn't much of A call for 9 00:00:27,600 --> 00:00:30,200 to improve conditions in these camps for people who are 10 00:00:30,200 --> 00:00:33,920 regarded as terrorists, and without that, they have become a 11 00:00:33,960 --> 00:00:36,480 breeding grounds for radicalization. 12 00:00:36,480 --> 00:00:40,320 This has been a mistake repeated again and again, you know, in 13 00:00:40,320 --> 00:00:46,440 our modern history. Hello and welcome to the 14 00:00:46,440 --> 00:00:49,120 forecast. It was hoped the fall of Syria's 15 00:00:49,120 --> 00:00:53,160 dictator Bashar al-Assad would usher in a period of stability, 16 00:00:53,360 --> 00:00:56,160 unity and perhaps eventually democracy. 17 00:00:56,720 --> 00:01:00,800 But now the country enters a new and unpredictable phase as 18 00:01:00,800 --> 00:01:05,280 President Ahmed Al Sharah tightens his grip on power in 19 00:01:05,280 --> 00:01:07,840 the North East. The Kurds were the West key ally 20 00:01:07,840 --> 00:01:11,200 against Islamic State. Now their control in the region 21 00:01:11,200 --> 00:01:14,720 is collapsing after days of fierce battles with government 22 00:01:14,720 --> 00:01:17,720 forces. A tentative ceasefire is in 23 00:01:17,720 --> 00:01:21,480 place but the fallout is far from clear, including the fate 24 00:01:21,480 --> 00:01:25,080 of thousands of ISIS prisoners and their families who were in 25 00:01:25,080 --> 00:01:28,600 Kurdish controlled camps. Regional players like Turkey and 26 00:01:28,600 --> 00:01:32,520 Iran, as well as China, Russia and the West, are also jostling 27 00:01:32,520 --> 00:01:35,720 for influence. Could these developments finally 28 00:01:35,720 --> 00:01:39,240 bring a period of calm and stability in Syria or just open 29 00:01:39,240 --> 00:01:42,560 the door to new dangers? I'm joined by our international 30 00:01:42,560 --> 00:01:46,080 editor, Lindsay Hilsum, and by Lina Khatib, the principal 31 00:01:46,080 --> 00:01:49,680 analyst at geopolitical foresight company Extrac. 32 00:01:50,000 --> 00:01:53,800 Lina Khatib, First, that hope of a unified Syria. 33 00:01:54,040 --> 00:01:56,240 How hopeless is that looking right now? 34 00:01:56,360 --> 00:01:58,920 It's actually looking more likely than before. 35 00:01:59,400 --> 00:02:03,160 For the longest time there was speculation that Syria could go 36 00:02:03,160 --> 00:02:08,039 down the line of federalism, with, for example, a Kurdish 37 00:02:08,039 --> 00:02:12,200 autonomous area in the North East becoming a permanent 38 00:02:12,200 --> 00:02:16,760 feature of Syria. But since Ahmed Shara came to 39 00:02:16,760 --> 00:02:21,320 power, there has been persistent messaging by the Syrian 40 00:02:21,320 --> 00:02:26,480 government that decentralisation is not going to be acceptable, 41 00:02:26,480 --> 00:02:29,360 that they want to centralise governance in Syria. 42 00:02:29,720 --> 00:02:32,520 And now they are closer to that than ever. 43 00:02:32,720 --> 00:02:36,120 And what has happened in the North East sends a message all 44 00:02:36,120 --> 00:02:40,280 over Syria that the model for governance going forward is a 45 00:02:40,280 --> 00:02:42,880 centralised 1. So, Lindsay, sum up for us, if 46 00:02:42,880 --> 00:02:46,120 you would, the sort of military and political landscape right 47 00:02:46,120 --> 00:02:48,640 now. Well, I think that Aslina says 48 00:02:48,640 --> 00:02:51,880 the central government under Ahmad al Sharra is trying to 49 00:02:51,880 --> 00:02:57,320 pull in everybody, the Alawites, the Druze and now the Kurds. 50 00:02:57,560 --> 00:03:02,000 But from a Kurdish point of view, they held this area of 51 00:03:02,000 --> 00:03:06,800 northeastern Syria called Rajava as a semi autonomous state in 52 00:03:06,800 --> 00:03:11,280 the time of Bashar al-Assad. And that was something that they 53 00:03:11,280 --> 00:03:13,920 wanted. And you look to Iraq and you 54 00:03:13,920 --> 00:03:17,680 have Iraqi Kurdistan, which is semi autonomous and what has 55 00:03:17,680 --> 00:03:22,520 been happening over the last few days, which is fierce fighting 56 00:03:22,760 --> 00:03:28,400 between the Kurdish forces and the central Damascus forces and 57 00:03:28,400 --> 00:03:32,280 which has resulted in most of that area, Rajava, being taken 58 00:03:32,280 --> 00:03:34,560 over by the the central Syrian forces. 59 00:03:35,000 --> 00:03:38,400 For many of the Kurds, they will see this is a huge blow. 60 00:03:38,800 --> 00:03:43,720 Many of them do not want to be integrated completely into a 61 00:03:43,720 --> 00:03:47,040 centralised Syrian state. They want to retain some 62 00:03:47,040 --> 00:03:49,560 autonomy. And I think that they will see 63 00:03:49,560 --> 00:03:52,600 this, as, you know, less and less possible. 64 00:03:52,600 --> 00:03:54,840 And I'm not sure that they would all accept it. 65 00:03:54,840 --> 00:03:57,720 I think there's a great danger of continued guerrilla warfare. 66 00:03:58,320 --> 00:04:00,880 Exactly on that point lean, I mean, the idea of moving towards 67 00:04:00,880 --> 00:04:04,840 unity doesn't actually happen if the Kurds don't accept this, 68 00:04:04,840 --> 00:04:08,000 does it? It certainly will be difficult 69 00:04:08,000 --> 00:04:11,680 because not everyone, as we heard, is on board. 70 00:04:12,000 --> 00:04:15,160 And also the issue is not just about the Kurds. 71 00:04:15,160 --> 00:04:19,120 There's other communities in Syria that we're hoping for 72 00:04:19,120 --> 00:04:21,800 autonomy as well. And here we're mainly talking 73 00:04:21,800 --> 00:04:26,600 about the Druze in the South, as well as perhaps some communities 74 00:04:26,760 --> 00:04:30,480 are in coastal areas which come from the Alawite community. 75 00:04:31,520 --> 00:04:36,840 So the Syrian governments way of handling the situation in the 76 00:04:36,840 --> 00:04:41,440 northeast is meant to also be about those other communities 77 00:04:41,440 --> 00:04:45,000 further down the line. And those communities in the 78 00:04:45,000 --> 00:04:52,440 South, for example, food, also form groups that do not toe the 79 00:04:52,440 --> 00:04:56,200 line of the government. And so there is the potential of 80 00:04:56,200 --> 00:04:59,240 seeing not just guerrilla groups in the northeast, but guerrilla 81 00:04:59,240 --> 00:05:02,040 groups and other areas in Syria as well. 82 00:05:02,360 --> 00:05:05,560 And the challenge for the Syrian government here becomes twofold. 83 00:05:06,320 --> 00:05:08,400 On the one hand, it's a security challenge. 84 00:05:08,640 --> 00:05:12,280 When the security sector capacity of the new Syrian 85 00:05:12,280 --> 00:05:17,000 government is quite reduced, it's still not very strong. 86 00:05:17,320 --> 00:05:21,600 And 2nd, it's a political issue because solving all these issues 87 00:05:21,600 --> 00:05:25,480 ultimately has to be through political inclusion. 88 00:05:25,760 --> 00:05:29,800 And that is something that is not quite there in Syria at the 89 00:05:29,800 --> 00:05:31,640 moment. There had been talk, you know, 90 00:05:31,640 --> 00:05:34,680 with the the new government that there would be elections. 91 00:05:34,680 --> 00:05:37,600 How likely is that now? Eventually there have to be 92 00:05:37,600 --> 00:05:41,000 elections because this government is currently 93 00:05:41,000 --> 00:05:44,280 presenting itself as legitimate on the basis that it's a 94 00:05:44,800 --> 00:05:50,600 liberation government. But the Syrian people want to 95 00:05:50,600 --> 00:05:55,760 see actual political representation going on with 96 00:05:55,760 --> 00:06:01,240 genuine political participation by the people and we will see 97 00:06:01,240 --> 00:06:05,600 whether President Sharia will deliver on his promises that in 98 00:06:05,600 --> 00:06:08,760 few years time Syria will have elections. 99 00:06:08,760 --> 00:06:11,920 Otherwise, I think masses of Syrians will be very 100 00:06:11,920 --> 00:06:14,480 disappointed. Is that, you know, the latest 101 00:06:14,480 --> 00:06:17,840 development sort of lightning move move movements over the 102 00:06:17,840 --> 00:06:20,240 last couple of weeks that make elections less likely? 103 00:06:20,400 --> 00:06:24,560 When it comes to the impact of what we've just seen in 104 00:06:24,560 --> 00:06:29,640 northeast Syria on the political trajectory of Syria when it 105 00:06:29,640 --> 00:06:34,320 comes to elections, I think the move towards centralisation 106 00:06:34,320 --> 00:06:37,680 actually makes it more likely that elections will happen 107 00:06:37,680 --> 00:06:42,680 further down the line. Because now you can say Syrians 108 00:06:42,680 --> 00:06:45,320 more or less all over the country will be able to 109 00:06:45,320 --> 00:06:49,440 participate in those elections. Whereas until not too long ago, 110 00:06:49,600 --> 00:06:53,400 the government could argue that there is one area of Syria that 111 00:06:53,400 --> 00:06:58,120 is outside of its remit and therefore elections cannot 112 00:06:58,120 --> 00:07:01,520 happen. And so hopefully things should 113 00:07:01,520 --> 00:07:04,360 actually become a bit more positive in that regard. 114 00:07:04,720 --> 00:07:07,800 But then a lot of that then on the conduct that it depends on 115 00:07:07,800 --> 00:07:11,240 whether the different Syrian groups, where it's the Kurds, 116 00:07:11,600 --> 00:07:15,800 the group we're looking at, or the Druze or the allies and so 117 00:07:15,800 --> 00:07:19,520 on, except the authority of the central state and everything 118 00:07:19,520 --> 00:07:22,360 comes down to that. And if it came to elections, 119 00:07:22,480 --> 00:07:25,920 whether they felt free to elect their own representatives who 120 00:07:25,920 --> 00:07:29,480 would inevitably represent their own communities and whether they 121 00:07:29,480 --> 00:07:33,640 felt that those representatives would actually have an influence 122 00:07:33,640 --> 00:07:36,320 over the central authorities. And I think that all of that is 123 00:07:36,320 --> 00:07:39,200 still unclear at the moment. And whether that would allow 124 00:07:39,200 --> 00:07:41,880 them still to push for this sort of autonomous region? 125 00:07:42,400 --> 00:07:44,560 I don't think they're going to get their autonomous region, but 126 00:07:44,560 --> 00:07:49,360 there is still negotiations going on about what kind of, you 127 00:07:49,360 --> 00:07:52,120 know what, how that could work out because it's perfectly 128 00:07:52,120 --> 00:07:56,280 possible to have a semi autonomous region or a federal 129 00:07:56,280 --> 00:07:59,040 system or whatever. Now that is not what the Syrian 130 00:07:59,040 --> 00:08:02,360 government is looking at at the moment, but those things are 131 00:08:02,360 --> 00:08:04,640 still to be discussed and that is also something which would 132 00:08:04,640 --> 00:08:07,480 come up in elections. And Lindsay, the Kurds are 133 00:08:07,480 --> 00:08:09,240 particularly interesting in a way, aren't they? 134 00:08:09,240 --> 00:08:13,520 Because they were pivotal allies against ISIS. 135 00:08:14,120 --> 00:08:16,880 Yet it seems now they're being effectively abandoned by the 136 00:08:16,880 --> 00:08:19,000 West. The Kurds are relearning A 137 00:08:19,000 --> 00:08:21,480 brutal lesson. Loyalty means nothing. 138 00:08:21,480 --> 00:08:24,760 They have no permanent friends. Well, and this goes back to the 139 00:08:24,800 --> 00:08:29,480 the history of of the Kurds. So as you know, Kurdish people 140 00:08:29,480 --> 00:08:33,320 up to 45,000,000 spread across four countries, not just Syria, 141 00:08:33,320 --> 00:08:37,720 but also Iran, Iraq and Turkey. And they don't have their own 142 00:08:37,880 --> 00:08:39,919 states. They don't have a Kurdish 143 00:08:39,919 --> 00:08:43,280 country as such. And over the years they have 144 00:08:43,360 --> 00:08:45,920 teamed up with the Americans particularly many times. 145 00:08:45,920 --> 00:08:48,000 They teamed up with the Americans to try and overthrow 146 00:08:48,000 --> 00:08:50,960 Saddam Hussein several times in in Iraq. 147 00:08:51,240 --> 00:08:55,320 What happened nearly every time the Americans abandoned them, 148 00:08:55,320 --> 00:08:57,840 the CIA abandoned them to their fate. 149 00:08:58,240 --> 00:09:01,800 And many Kurds will be seeing exactly the same Now. 150 00:09:02,320 --> 00:09:06,080 The Kurds were doing, as it were, The Dirty work for the 151 00:09:06,080 --> 00:09:07,760 West, particularly the Americans. 152 00:09:08,160 --> 00:09:12,200 I was there in Rajava, which is this Kurdish area of Syria, 153 00:09:12,440 --> 00:09:15,240 several times between 2016 and 2019. 154 00:09:15,480 --> 00:09:17,920 They were there, the Kurdish forces fighting on the 155 00:09:17,920 --> 00:09:23,560 frontline, killing and dying in order to defeat Islamic State, 156 00:09:24,120 --> 00:09:26,440 partly because they wanted to do that themselves. 157 00:09:26,600 --> 00:09:29,680 They have a very different ideology from Islamic State. 158 00:09:30,000 --> 00:09:33,360 They have women with female brigades in their armies. 159 00:09:33,560 --> 00:09:36,920 They live a, you know, many of them are quite secular, not all 160 00:09:36,920 --> 00:09:38,120 of them. They're still Muslims. 161 00:09:38,920 --> 00:09:42,480 And they have a very leftist way of looking at at the world. 162 00:09:43,160 --> 00:09:47,880 But they were doing it also on behalf of America and on behalf 163 00:09:47,880 --> 00:09:51,400 of the West. And most significantly, they 164 00:09:51,400 --> 00:09:56,600 have been guarding the ISIS prisoners, prisoners, male 165 00:09:56,600 --> 00:10:01,400 prisoners who are in in ordinary prisons, as it were, and female 166 00:10:01,400 --> 00:10:03,960 prisoners in camps. And here I'll just mention 167 00:10:03,960 --> 00:10:06,800 Shamima Begum because that may be her name that's familiar to 168 00:10:06,800 --> 00:10:11,000 many British people. She was a a young woman, aged 169 00:10:11,000 --> 00:10:16,080 15, a child really, who fled her home and went to join ISIS. 170 00:10:16,080 --> 00:10:19,400 And she ended up becoming very embroiled in that and she's 171 00:10:19,920 --> 00:10:22,680 overheld, we think in a camp called Al Raj at the moment. 172 00:10:23,160 --> 00:10:27,920 Now the Kurds, they were looking after those people or keeping 173 00:10:27,920 --> 00:10:31,120 those people prisoner while Western countries refused to 174 00:10:31,120 --> 00:10:35,800 have their own nationals back. And now, well, suddenly they're 175 00:10:35,800 --> 00:10:39,000 not useful anymore. The Americans have decided that 176 00:10:39,560 --> 00:10:43,600 Al Sharar and that government they can more or less look 177 00:10:43,600 --> 00:10:47,920 overlook after the the prisoners say Kurds sorry about that. 178 00:10:48,480 --> 00:10:53,200 Can I just add that one key reason why the Kurds were 179 00:10:53,200 --> 00:10:57,640 fighting ISIS is not just because of course ISIS posed a 180 00:10:57,640 --> 00:11:00,760 real threat to them, but also because they thought that if 181 00:11:00,760 --> 00:11:05,400 they play this role, then they can eventually get autonomy. 182 00:11:05,400 --> 00:11:09,640 Then the West would back them in this political goal of theirs. 183 00:11:09,880 --> 00:11:14,640 And unfortunately, the situation has been one in which they were 184 00:11:14,640 --> 00:11:18,880 simply being instrumentalized by the international community in 185 00:11:18,880 --> 00:11:22,960 the fight against ISIS. And now the US envoy, Tom 186 00:11:22,960 --> 00:11:27,600 Barack, has basically said that their role has ended. 187 00:11:27,800 --> 00:11:30,200 That's it. Their role in fighting ISIS has 188 00:11:30,200 --> 00:11:37,280 ended, and therefore their role as custodians of security in the 189 00:11:37,280 --> 00:11:40,840 Northeast is over. You go back to Henry Kissinger, 190 00:11:40,840 --> 00:11:42,880 don't you? Who was the one who said that 191 00:11:42,880 --> 00:11:46,760 America has no permanent friends and no permanent enemies, only 192 00:11:46,760 --> 00:11:51,080 permanent interests? And so the Kurds acted in the 193 00:11:51,080 --> 00:11:54,160 American interest. And now the Americans say, look 194 00:11:54,160 --> 00:11:56,280 at it like that. And so you come back to another. 195 00:11:56,280 --> 00:11:58,880 This is one, I'm afraid it's another cliche what the the 196 00:11:58,880 --> 00:12:02,080 Kurds always say because they feel that they're always 197 00:12:02,080 --> 00:12:04,520 betrayed. No friends but the mountains. 198 00:12:04,680 --> 00:12:08,200 So Lena, what are what are the political, the geopolitical 199 00:12:08,200 --> 00:12:12,440 consequences of the West in a sense letting down the Kurds 200 00:12:12,480 --> 00:12:15,800 here? Well, one of the bigger issues 201 00:12:15,800 --> 00:12:20,120 for the West, of course, is that of ISIS and what to do about 202 00:12:20,120 --> 00:12:23,720 ISIS detainees. And what the US indicates doing 203 00:12:23,960 --> 00:12:29,560 is moving reportedly 7000 of those ISIS detainees from the 204 00:12:29,560 --> 00:12:35,240 prisons that the Kurds were overseeing to Iraq. 205 00:12:35,240 --> 00:12:37,760 So these prisoners are being moved to Iraq. 206 00:12:37,920 --> 00:12:41,320 Why is this happening? It's because now that area, the 207 00:12:41,320 --> 00:12:45,000 northeast, is under the control of the Syrian government. 208 00:12:45,240 --> 00:12:48,680 And as I was saying earlier, unfortunately the Syrian 209 00:12:48,680 --> 00:12:53,400 government's security sector capacity is still quite weak. 210 00:12:53,600 --> 00:12:58,240 So they will not be able to really hold that area 211 00:12:58,240 --> 00:13:02,680 effectively, especially as ISIS will be looking at the situation 212 00:13:02,680 --> 00:13:07,200 and trying to identify any possibilities for releasing some 213 00:13:07,200 --> 00:13:10,440 of their prisoners and having some sort of a resurrection. 214 00:13:10,440 --> 00:13:15,400 So the US is trying to play safe by moving these detainees to 215 00:13:15,440 --> 00:13:18,520 Iraq. Now here, of course, we have 216 00:13:18,520 --> 00:13:22,600 another situation, which is the presence now for the first time 217 00:13:22,600 --> 00:13:27,640 of the Syrian government's forces at the Iraqi boulder. 218 00:13:28,120 --> 00:13:32,560 Until very recently, it was the Kurds who were present in a 219 00:13:32,560 --> 00:13:36,160 security capacity. So now the Iraqi authorities 220 00:13:36,160 --> 00:13:40,440 will have to coordinate with this new government in Syria, 221 00:13:40,440 --> 00:13:44,280 which is going to be also a bit of a delicate political 222 00:13:44,280 --> 00:13:49,240 situation considering the varied political leanings that are 223 00:13:49,240 --> 00:13:52,240 present in Iraq compared to Syria. 224 00:13:52,240 --> 00:13:56,840 And here I'm talking mainly about the still very influential 225 00:13:56,840 --> 00:14:02,680 role for Iran in the Iraq, influencing many of the militias 226 00:14:02,680 --> 00:14:07,920 that are present in that area. And so they will also, these 227 00:14:07,920 --> 00:14:12,360 Iraqi militias be seeing in this new movement in Syria a bit of a 228 00:14:12,440 --> 00:14:15,560 threat to their own authority as well. 229 00:14:15,760 --> 00:14:19,480 So, Lindsay on on how the Syrian government react to all of this, 230 00:14:19,480 --> 00:14:23,880 I mean, how does Ahmed al Shara's government differ regime 231 00:14:23,880 --> 00:14:27,120 differ from Bashar al Assad's? Well, look, it's hugely 232 00:14:27,120 --> 00:14:31,080 different. I mean, obviously, he comes from 233 00:14:31,080 --> 00:14:34,280 an Islamist background. And I think that that is one of 234 00:14:34,280 --> 00:14:39,360 the reasons that many people look on his forces taking over 235 00:14:39,360 --> 00:14:43,600 these camps and prisons and think, are they really seeing 236 00:14:43,600 --> 00:14:47,400 themselves as the enemies of the men and women inside? 237 00:14:47,560 --> 00:14:49,720 Or would they actually like to release some of them because 238 00:14:49,720 --> 00:14:51,680 they could they could be partners in the future. 239 00:14:51,680 --> 00:14:53,880 And that is that is an open question. 240 00:14:54,400 --> 00:15:01,120 But clearly he represents, you know, ethnically, religiously, a 241 00:15:01,120 --> 00:15:05,400 majority in Syria, which is Sunni Muslims, unlike Bashar 242 00:15:05,400 --> 00:15:08,600 al-Assad who was an Alawite, which was a minority. 243 00:15:08,880 --> 00:15:11,120 So arguably that gives him an advantage. 244 00:15:11,400 --> 00:15:15,440 The other advantage that he has, I think, is that there is a lot 245 00:15:15,440 --> 00:15:20,920 of goodwill towards Ahmed Al Sharah, and that primarily comes 246 00:15:20,920 --> 00:15:23,320 from the Gulf countries. And one of the reasons, I think 247 00:15:23,320 --> 00:15:26,640 that all the main reason that we've seen this big change in 248 00:15:26,640 --> 00:15:30,480 American policy and this big support for him, even though he 249 00:15:30,480 --> 00:15:34,840 does come from this Islamist background, is because the Gulf 250 00:15:34,840 --> 00:15:38,640 country has said to, to President Trump, look, you've 251 00:15:38,640 --> 00:15:42,520 got to support this man. This man has a chance of uniting 252 00:15:42,640 --> 00:15:47,800 Syria, of pulling Syria together as one country, not as a broken, 253 00:15:47,800 --> 00:15:51,440 fragmented state. You've got to lift sanctions, 254 00:15:51,480 --> 00:15:54,480 which Donald Trump did, and you've got to give him all the 255 00:15:54,640 --> 00:15:57,040 the backing you can. So that is the policy that the 256 00:15:57,040 --> 00:16:01,720 Americans are following very much after the the lead of the 257 00:16:01,720 --> 00:16:03,760 Gulf countries, especially Saudi Arabia. 258 00:16:04,360 --> 00:16:08,080 And if I can add one key thing about Sharaf's political 259 00:16:08,080 --> 00:16:12,360 positioning, which relates to my point earlier on Iran, is that 260 00:16:12,360 --> 00:16:19,640 he is vehemently anti Iran. Obviously the Syria situation 261 00:16:19,640 --> 00:16:23,240 under Bashar al-Assad was was really optimal for Iranian 262 00:16:23,240 --> 00:16:26,520 influence in the Middle East. And with the fall of Assad, that 263 00:16:26,520 --> 00:16:29,240 situation changed radically for Iran. 264 00:16:29,240 --> 00:16:34,320 It lost a huge advantage when it comes to its strategic influence 265 00:16:34,320 --> 00:16:36,240 in the region with the fall of Assad. 266 00:16:36,520 --> 00:16:38,400 So now you have Sharia, who's anti Iran. 267 00:16:38,560 --> 00:16:43,040 But another thing about him is obviously as the previous leader 268 00:16:43,040 --> 00:16:51,760 of, he also fought with his factions against ISIS because 269 00:16:51,760 --> 00:16:55,840 they were political rivals. So for a while you had rivalry 270 00:16:55,840 --> 00:17:00,280 between, hey, Atahrid Sham under a shadow and he was known at the 271 00:17:00,280 --> 00:17:03,200 time as Abu Muhammad al Julani and ISIS. 272 00:17:03,200 --> 00:17:07,200 They were arguing over power and fighting bitterly and hey 273 00:17:07,200 --> 00:17:13,040 Atahrid Sham prevailed. And so in this sense, Haiah 274 00:17:13,040 --> 00:17:17,920 Pahri, the Sham, still sees ISIS as a threat and as a rival and 275 00:17:17,920 --> 00:17:22,599 as an enemy and vice versa. And so this situation with the 276 00:17:22,599 --> 00:17:26,040 prisoners, I don't think personally is going to lead to 277 00:17:26,720 --> 00:17:29,920 more cooperation between the Syrian government and some of 278 00:17:29,920 --> 00:17:31,760 the prisoners. I think it's the opposite. 279 00:17:31,760 --> 00:17:36,840 I think they are concerned about their own security when the 280 00:17:36,840 --> 00:17:40,400 situation might present openings for ISIS. 281 00:17:40,760 --> 00:17:43,040 And Lindsay, of course, President Erdogan in Turkey, it 282 00:17:43,240 --> 00:17:46,040 must be pretty delighted at how things are panning out for the 283 00:17:46,040 --> 00:17:48,560 Kurds. Oh, he's crowing because 284 00:17:49,360 --> 00:17:53,480 President Erdogan in Turkey is the Kurdish separatist movement 285 00:17:54,440 --> 00:17:56,160 was see it was his biggest enemy. 286 00:17:56,160 --> 00:17:58,920 Now he did a sort of deal with them, which is kind of stalling 287 00:17:58,920 --> 00:18:00,400 at the moment. It's not completely clear what 288 00:18:00,400 --> 00:18:04,600 exactly is happening on them. But to see their autonomous area 289 00:18:04,600 --> 00:18:09,280 reduced and potentially crushed in Syria, that's a big advantage 290 00:18:09,280 --> 00:18:14,320 to to President Erdogan. And that may be another reason 291 00:18:14,320 --> 00:18:17,120 that the Americans have withdrawn their support for the 292 00:18:17,120 --> 00:18:21,680 Kurds in order to, you know, to, to reinforce that connection 293 00:18:21,680 --> 00:18:24,960 with, with Erdogan and Turkey, which is a which is a NATO 294 00:18:24,960 --> 00:18:26,960 member. But can we just, I just want to 295 00:18:26,960 --> 00:18:29,840 bring it for a moment back to the human side of this, because 296 00:18:29,840 --> 00:18:33,200 I visited those camps. And one of the things I think is 297 00:18:33,200 --> 00:18:36,240 really important is you have all these women in those camps and 298 00:18:36,240 --> 00:18:38,080 all these children. And these children have been 299 00:18:38,080 --> 00:18:41,280 brought up without an education and they have been radicalized 300 00:18:41,280 --> 00:18:45,720 because many of the women in the camps a fanatical ISIS 301 00:18:45,720 --> 00:18:48,200 supporters. It was extraordinary being 302 00:18:48,200 --> 00:18:51,240 there. They were so angry and the fury 303 00:18:51,240 --> 00:18:53,920 at me because I just wore a headscarf and didn't cover my 304 00:18:53,920 --> 00:18:56,760 face. I mean, these kind of feelings 305 00:18:56,760 --> 00:18:59,400 and beliefs are very prevalent in the camps. 306 00:19:00,040 --> 00:19:04,200 And I wonder what is going to happen to those children now, 307 00:19:04,480 --> 00:19:07,840 because now for many years, you know, sort of 5-6, what is it 308 00:19:07,840 --> 00:19:10,960 7-8 years they've been brought up without an education. 309 00:19:11,240 --> 00:19:14,840 And with this radicalization, how are they ever going to be 310 00:19:14,840 --> 00:19:18,680 integrated into a new into a new Syria? 311 00:19:19,160 --> 00:19:22,160 And what about, you know, the suffering of all those people? 312 00:19:22,160 --> 00:19:24,480 And I think that one of the things is also worrying when you 313 00:19:24,480 --> 00:19:30,080 look at the the Kurds, they have, there has been a certain 314 00:19:30,760 --> 00:19:33,360 under the autonomous region, there has been a certain amount 315 00:19:33,360 --> 00:19:40,840 of freedom for women. And many of them will fear that 316 00:19:40,840 --> 00:19:44,680 despite Ahmed al Shahra's declaration that women are 317 00:19:44,680 --> 00:19:47,160 equal. And so they will fear being 318 00:19:47,160 --> 00:19:51,400 reintegrated into Syria because they will fear losing some of 319 00:19:51,400 --> 00:19:53,560 those freedoms. I don't know, Lena, whether you 320 00:19:53,560 --> 00:19:57,440 think that those those fears are justified or not. 321 00:19:58,200 --> 00:20:02,760 Well, I was in Syria in December and one thing I noticed and that 322 00:20:02,760 --> 00:20:08,840 was my first visit since before the conflict, so 15 years, and I 323 00:20:08,840 --> 00:20:14,240 did not see explicit signs in Damascus regarding increased 324 00:20:14,240 --> 00:20:18,640 Islamization, however. Behind closed doors there were 325 00:20:18,640 --> 00:20:22,200 quite a few concerns expressed by people that there were 326 00:20:22,200 --> 00:20:27,840 informal things happening that they saw as leading society down 327 00:20:27,840 --> 00:20:31,040 that particular route. So I think these concerns that 328 00:20:31,040 --> 00:20:34,520 you are talking about are not baseless. 329 00:20:34,640 --> 00:20:37,080 And, and the point is, I suppose, that there isn't much 330 00:20:37,080 --> 00:20:40,080 of A call for to improve conditions in these camps for 331 00:20:40,080 --> 00:20:43,800 people who are regarded as terrorists, their families. 332 00:20:44,320 --> 00:20:47,160 And without that, as Lindsay says, Lena, you know, they have 333 00:20:47,160 --> 00:20:51,280 become people say, breeding grounds for radicalization. 334 00:20:51,520 --> 00:20:55,400 And unfortunately, this has been a mistake repeated again and and 335 00:20:55,400 --> 00:21:00,040 again, you know, in our modern history that we in the 336 00:21:00,160 --> 00:21:04,200 international community become so concerned with immediate 337 00:21:04,360 --> 00:21:09,360 security measures and we don't think long term about causes of 338 00:21:09,360 --> 00:21:13,160 instability. And right now I'm seeing, for 339 00:21:13,160 --> 00:21:17,720 example, the movement of detainees, let's say, from Syria 340 00:21:17,720 --> 00:21:21,920 to Iraq, but I'm not seeing plans for what to do about the 341 00:21:21,920 --> 00:21:25,480 children and the women that Lindsay has been talking about. 342 00:21:26,000 --> 00:21:30,640 Where is the solution to try to de radicalize these individuals? 343 00:21:30,920 --> 00:21:36,320 This means that, yes, for now, we may be able to deal with the 344 00:21:36,320 --> 00:21:38,800 problem by keeping them locked up. 345 00:21:38,800 --> 00:21:42,280 But this is not going to be a long term solution. 346 00:21:42,280 --> 00:21:45,640 And unfortunately, we keep seeing the same mistakes 347 00:21:45,760 --> 00:21:47,960 repeated. And this was one of the reasons 348 00:21:47,960 --> 00:21:53,080 why ISIS rose, you know, around a decade or so ago. 349 00:21:53,560 --> 00:21:56,320 It's because people at the time also did not pay enough 350 00:21:56,320 --> 00:21:58,000 attention to the root causes and. 351 00:21:58,160 --> 00:22:00,920 They're not small in number, the people being held, the women, 352 00:22:00,920 --> 00:22:02,800 the children. Now, I don't know the exact 353 00:22:02,800 --> 00:22:05,640 number, I don't know if you do need it, but just our whole camp 354 00:22:05,640 --> 00:22:08,400 had 24,000 in it the last time I looked. 355 00:22:08,640 --> 00:22:12,600 So we are talking about a lot of, we're talking about a lot of 356 00:22:12,600 --> 00:22:14,880 people. And that's one of the is, it's 357 00:22:14,920 --> 00:22:19,200 the worst because, you know, the Kurds dealt with them as best 358 00:22:19,200 --> 00:22:21,840 they could with some money, but not a lot. 359 00:22:22,240 --> 00:22:25,360 And, you know, Western countries refused to take back a lot of 360 00:22:25,360 --> 00:22:29,400 their own nationals and didn't want to put money into the 361 00:22:29,400 --> 00:22:32,560 education and upkeep of these of these people. 362 00:22:33,160 --> 00:22:37,640 But whether they are being held by the Kurds or now by the 363 00:22:37,640 --> 00:22:41,000 Syrian authorities and possibly again by the Iraqi authorities, 364 00:22:41,240 --> 00:22:44,360 this is just passing the buck from one person to 1. 365 00:22:44,360 --> 00:22:48,840 You know, organization or one place to another is not actually 366 00:22:48,840 --> 00:22:53,880 looking at the root cause. And it's continuing to create 367 00:22:53,880 --> 00:22:56,360 further anger amongst those people. 368 00:22:56,360 --> 00:22:59,160 And one day, one day that's going to break out in some way 369 00:22:59,160 --> 00:23:02,160 or another. And you know, as we look ahead, 370 00:23:02,960 --> 00:23:06,160 I hesitate to say this, but all roads often lead to President 371 00:23:06,160 --> 00:23:10,320 Trump or certainly he he believes that the Americans role 372 00:23:10,320 --> 00:23:13,400 in this. What key difference, if any, 373 00:23:13,400 --> 00:23:18,040 might it make? Well, the US has shown that what 374 00:23:18,040 --> 00:23:22,840 the US wants is basically what happens in the Middle East. 375 00:23:22,840 --> 00:23:29,000 And we have seen a huge change in the region, partly as a 376 00:23:29,000 --> 00:23:33,240 result of changes under the Trump administration. 377 00:23:33,600 --> 00:23:38,160 And here we have explicit support as well as implicit 378 00:23:38,160 --> 00:23:41,520 support for the administration of Ahmed El Shadda. 379 00:23:41,920 --> 00:23:48,560 We are seeing increased partnership between the US and 380 00:23:48,560 --> 00:23:53,040 Saudi Arabia. We are seeing close coordination 381 00:23:53,040 --> 00:23:58,320 between the US and Israel, which I expect will eventually lead to 382 00:23:58,560 --> 00:24:00,760 significant change in Iran as well. 383 00:24:01,120 --> 00:24:05,760 So the geopolitical landscape in the Middle East is changing, 384 00:24:06,320 --> 00:24:10,240 partly because of the way the US is dealing with the region. 385 00:24:10,240 --> 00:24:16,160 So I expect that ultimately no regime is going to be acceptable 386 00:24:16,160 --> 00:24:19,960 to the United States in the Middle East unless it's a regime 387 00:24:20,040 --> 00:24:24,360 that is find one way or another with US interests. 388 00:24:24,560 --> 00:24:28,120 Lindsay, last word to you. Well, one of the things which 389 00:24:28,120 --> 00:24:32,840 the the Americas and the Israelis disagree on actually is 390 00:24:32,840 --> 00:24:36,800 Syria, because Israel is controlling a small section of 391 00:24:36,800 --> 00:24:39,160 Syria saying that they're there to support the Druze. 392 00:24:39,160 --> 00:24:40,840 And that actually is a point of friction. 393 00:24:41,080 --> 00:24:44,200 But I agree with Lena, I think that the future of the region is 394 00:24:44,200 --> 00:24:48,160 very looks very different now from how it did say 2-3 years 395 00:24:48,160 --> 00:24:51,200 ago. And that is primarily because of 396 00:24:51,200 --> 00:24:55,200 Donald Trump's close association both with the Gulf monarchies 397 00:24:55,440 --> 00:24:58,400 and with Israel. And I think that as we look in 398 00:24:58,400 --> 00:25:01,240 the coming years, those are the places which are going to 399 00:25:01,240 --> 00:25:06,640 dictate what happens and we see declining power for Iran and for 400 00:25:06,640 --> 00:25:09,000 any countries which are allied with Iran. 401 00:25:09,520 --> 00:25:12,360 Lindsay Leena Khatib, thank you so much for joining us. 402 00:25:12,360 --> 00:25:14,880 That is it from this episode of THE FORECAST. 403 00:25:14,880 --> 00:25:16,280 Until next time, goodbye.