Welcome to the forecast from Washington, DC, where
everything, and I mean everything is about to change.
Not just the inauguration itself on Monday, which Donald Trump
has moved inside because apparently it's far too cold for
all those people to turn up on the Mall in front of the Capitol
building. But also what this inauguration
signifies for America and for the rest of the world.
You could call it the climax of the triumph of right wing
populism across the board. Well, to discuss not just what's
going to happen on Inauguration Day itself, but also the
consequences and the first week of Trump, the sequel, I'm joined
by Kieran Woodley and by Siobhan Kennedy, our Washington
correspondent. Welcome to you both.
Thank you. Thank you.
Is it the final festival of progressive America?
The kind of the wake of I? Don't think so.
I think progressive America feels that way right now.
I think they're still very wounded and distressed by what's
happened. I think for a while, yes, it's
very clear that their policies and their desires will be very
much pushed to the side. But remember, two years ago,
Donald Trump himself was an outcast after the midterms.
He was politically frozen even by his own party.
So yes, it all feels like not just Trump's Republican Party,
but Trump's world right now. But progressives and Democrats
are a tough bunch, and they might roll over for this
inauguration. There might not be the same
sense of. Push back.
Yeah, I can't think of the word.
Anger or wait? I mean, the one thing I've one
thing I've noticed is, but I was here for the for the first Trump
inauguration, 2016, you know, you couldn't walk around the
city with the Marga hat. Not that I was wearing one.
But, you know, if you did wear a Marga hat, you know, people were
quite rude to you. Yeah.
And because they thought that basically Margot and Trump were
the aberration, the mood. Kieran this time around is
remarkably different, isn't it? Yes, and even from even from the
Biden inauguration. I mean, I think this is the
first inauguration, I guess, since the Obama ones where there
does feel to seem seem to be a vibe shift in terms of much more
positivity. Because as you say, in 2017,
there was so much anger boiling over.
There was a women's March the following day, which had bigger
crowds than the Trump inauguration.
Four years ago, Trump after January the 6th and we were in
the midst of COVID, there were hardly anywhere there weren't
allowed to be crowds. Everything was still felt
negative. So this time there feels like
there is a vibe shift where Trump has sort of, he's done
this, he's done 3 elections, he's won two of them.
He's won the argument. His supporters feel they've
they've won this moment. This feels like a movement has
happened. And but the big question really
is where does it go next? We'll discuss that a minute.
But I mean, the other difference is that, you know, Trump's,
like, likes to point out that it was a landslide victory, the
biggest in the history, which is nonsense, of course.
The margins are fairly tight, but they are convincing,
Siobhan. Yeah, I mean, they are and, and
crucially for him, he won the popular vote, which was the big
deal for him. But yes, he run it by a very
small margin. So, yeah, I mean, I just, it's
it's a convincing win. And that's what it feels like
here in DC. And people are rolling over and
they're going with the inauguration.
But I don't think to your original point that this is
Trump's world forever. I think let's just give it some
time. There's going to be a lot of
shock and awe in the first few weeks.
And we're expecting that in the first few months and perhaps the
first year. But I think that you will very
quickly see push back and as we all know, things change very
quickly in politics and certainly here in DC and.
Of course, his supporters do hope it's going to be Trump's
world forever. They very, they're very much
invested in this, in this being a fundamental change, a
transformation of America. Yes.
And again, it's that what I'm almost saying, it's that it's
that that vibe of the feeling of a, of a real turning point
against the actual practicalities of the politics
of it all. Because not just what he can do,
but also, you know, he did only win, He did win the popular
vote, but only by like 1.5%. You know, he won the swings, he
won all those seven swing states.
But it's not like a big landslide in the way of Obama or
anything else. But it feels that way.
And I think that's a really interesting thing that it feels
like and he's. Very good at making it feel.
Yeah, he's like, it feels like that's what he does.
He's had the final say, but he hasn't yet because there are
this next four years to go. We'll talk about day one and
week one in a minute, but just on the inauguration itself, it's
fascinating to me that a man who's so obsessed with crowd
sizes, who I, you would have thought could have banked on a
bigger crowd this time round than in 2016, right?
Because it, it was a bigger victory.
You know, the Margaret crowd feel, you know, empowered,
etcetera, etcetera, that he's moved it inside.
Now the official reason is that it's going to be too cold.
But actually it might not be all that cold.
Is he worried about the numbers being too small?
Yes, he is, because that's what NBC is reporting.
I wonder if he must because no one will ever forget that the
long pan of them all last time, terrible people here and then it
just and then nobody towards the back.
So I think he's worried about that.
And I think he also just loves the, he just loves the getting
in among the crowd and, and, and being the center of attention,
which necessarily he won't be. But there is also, there is also
the thing that maybe there's also I think here like the
fundamental issue with Trump and, and how he he sees this
moment is that on the one hand, you would expect him to want to
have all these crowds and to have all his supporters out
there. On the other hand, he now has a
smaller Rotunda where he can have perhaps the people who
might be much more important than all this Elon Musk, you
know, Jeff Bezos. Yeah, but they.
Would have been on this on the stage anyway.
Yeah, but now he's got. But it's almost like is is he
the argument? And this is where the new push
back is coming from, from the Democrats who are sort of in
disarray. Is this what Biden was saying,
this oligarchy? So this is now what we're seeing
is this oligarchy of, you know, Trump says he's there for
America first and for the people.
But actually, you know, he's got the circus, he's got these
people who nudging him saying, hey, you know, I've got, I've
got, you know, I've got money and TikTok.
Let's try and bring it. Back OK, let's look at the guest
list. You know, what does that tell
you about the Trump, the next Trump presidency from who's been
invited and who's not been invited?
Well, as I say, you know, the oligarchs who will be on display
as Joe Biden talks about them, you know, Elon Musk, Yes,
exactly Elon Musk. You know, it's fascinating to
see, you know, Mark Zuckerberg. I mean, I think that game.
Who turned up yesterday and was surrounded by bodyguards and
went to one of the many sort of inaugural balls or pre inaugural
balls? Which goes, which goes into this
vibe, vibe shift. You know, I mean, it was only
four years ago that, you know, what was then Facebook, now
Meta, you know them, them exactly them along with Twitter,
now X, you know, everything's changed.
You know, he was, he was banned from those platforms after
January 6th and now they're all there.
And not only that, they've all given, not just bending the
knee, but also writing, they've each given $1,000,000 to the
inauguration committee. Never has an inauguration
committee ever had this much money to to spend on canopies
and drinks or music, whatever else.
And there's this amazing image of Zuckerberg, which I cannot
get out of my head. Zuckerberg at Mar a Lago, I
think about a month ago, yeah, not just kissing the ring of
Trump, but also then listening to the January the 6th Memorial
Choir perform the national anthem.
And he's got his hand on his heart.
That is a very different Zuckerberg to the one that we
saw, as you said, four years ago.
So. So the millionaire Bros will all
be there. I wonder if Musk is going to be
allowed to move into the White House, will he have an?
Honestly I was thinking the same thing.
He's been paying $2000 a night to live in Mar a Lago.
Where will he live now? I mean, he will think this, I'm
sure. He'll find a hotel room
somewhere, but will he be? Because this is, I think we've
got a, the Trump presidency like a medieval court.
This is like Henry the Eighth without the culture and and
nukes, right? It's a bit like that.
So access to the monarch is vital.
So I wonder. He'll have an office next door.
Well, I wonder because Steve Bannon, you know, and, and the
Margaret crowd, the hardcore Margaret crowd who hate Musk and
they hate him. But I.
Think there are, there are two things, two things there.
I mean, one, as you say, there is, you know, within the within
this Republican victory, there are obviously competing
factions. There are the America first sort
of almost JD Vance types who want, you know, you know, they
still want a government which ensures that Americans are much
more prosperous. You know, they're getting
welfares, Social Security, etcetera.
On the other hand, you have Elon Musk a lot who actually like
smaller government and still believe in that sort of
capitalist thing, which we've seen with the dispute over the
visas. But the other point when it
talks about is Elon Musk going to go into the White House?
I think the one thing you've always got to remember with
Trump and this goes throughout his life, is that the the number
one person who should always be the focus is Trump.
I think the only person he's ever sort of allowed to dominate
him in any way is his father. You know, he has all these
father issues, etcetera. So I think if Elon Musk ever
becomes someone who grabs more headlines than Trump and surely
has more power, he will be. Thrown under the Trump bus.
Exactly. OK, let's look at day one.
Like, what can we? And he, he talks a lot about day
one. Day one is, you know, Monday
afternoon. What?
So he's going to go to the White House after the ceremony.
He's going to sit down at the Resolute Desk in the Oval
Office. He's going to sign how many
emergency decrees? Well, I mean, I was, I was
listening to Charlie Kirk, who's a, you know, a podcast on an
influential sort of younger voice in this movement and he
was talking about a, a blitzkrieg of executive orders,
hundreds and hundreds. We think there's going to be
obviously ones on immigration that there'll be ones to do.
I think specifically on energy and electric vehicles, there's
a, an executive order which he completely get rid of, which was
a Joe Biden one about an incentive for electric vehicles
by 20-30, which he can get rid of completely.
There could be possibly January 6 pardons.
I mean, he can do all these areas of orders.
It's about sending that message and a narrative of I'm doing
something. He doesn't want to flood the
zone with too many of them. I'm I guess he wants people to
notice what they are and, and immigration and deportation.
I think he'll see. I think we'll see things like
things that are very easy for him are pulling out of Paris,
Paris climate accord that that will happen.
I think, I think you know, he will be really interesting to
see if he pulls the EV incentives for you.
Say that easy. Easy for him, It's slightly
harder for the planet I would have.
Thought and it's slightly harder when your right hand man is Elon
Musk. I mean, we're immediately going
to see some pushback there and that there's going to be tension
One of their they're going after energy in a big way.
And yet here is the man beside him who's brought him to the
White House, who is Mr. Green Energy, I think.
But really the, the, the, the big thing is going to be
migration. I think we're going to see that
this week. I think there is going to that's
where they're going for the shock and awe whether whether
they achieve it, how they achieve it, because this is
really difficult stuff. It's really difficult stuff.
They're not something going to go with a big net and round
people up, tied up and talk them out.
That's what they say they're going to do.
But I think it's going to be. Mahoman, who is the kind of
immigration that the deportations.
Are. Yes, he's actually used the word
shock and awe, he said in interviews.
There will be shock and awe in the first week when it comes to
deportation. And apparently, according to the
Wall Street Journal, the city that they've targeted, you know,
it's Chicago, bastion of Democratic politics, sanctuary
city. And that's where they've already
started to kind of compile lists and the rounding up people.
But they have. But because it's leaked, the
last thing you want to do is leak everyone's scatters.
They're saying now, or he's saying now at least Homan, that
Oh no, we might not do Chicago, but the point is they're going
to do all the sanctuary cities that have been welcoming and
kind and who's Democratic leaders are saying you leave
these people alone. So we're going to see shock and
awe. The shock and awe might more be
the push back with Democratic leaders and and then the police
and people on the streets. You know that it will be with
them rounding up migrants and throwing them out.
I think that you'll definitely see more officers National
Guard. You'll see that's what they
immediately brought to the border.
But of course, the border's not the problem at the moment.
It's the interior and the millions and millions of people
that Biden let in and allowed to go and be with their sponsors in
the country. How will he round those up?
And it's the criminals he wants first, don't forget.
But and then the potential for for human drama, for real
suffering, for families, families being torn apart, the
stuff that we saw in 2016, but on a much bigger scale, you
know, that's definitely here. It will be a a a shock and all
process to to be seen that he's doing something.
But I think already Homan was talking about scaling back some
of the the positivity around how much they could actually do and
actually warning Congress, you know, if we want to do this in
the long run rather than a few ICE raids.
And we actually want to really clamp down on this in terms of
the people who are unauthorized. But also, you know, trying to
get all the different levels of because when we talk about
undocumented, there are so many different, so many catalogues
that's going to take a lot of money.
And this is a Congress which, you know, Donald Trump does not
want to spend loads of money necessarily.
This is a Congress which he doesn't have that many people,
especially in the House. So it's going to be a long
tricky pathway ahead just as much as.
And we are seeing some backtracking, not just on
immigration, but also with Ukraine.
It was going to be dealt with in one day.
Now it's going to be more than that.
You know, there are those things and.
Just to be clear, I mean, you know, he talked during the
campaign, although less so in recent weeks, about the
11,000,000 number of undocumented, documented, you
know, people, foreigners in this country.
I mean, to deport 11,000,000 is virtually impossible and it's
too costly and it'll also have a massive inflationary effect on
the labour market and so on. So I think we can assume that
that would probably not happen. We spoke to an ICE, the head of
ICE under Biden for a piece we did before Christmas who said, I
sorry, the immigration control. For those of us who.
Enforcement agency works within the Department of Homeland
Security. It's that the people that get
get the immigrants out enforcement and he ran that
business and he said, he said in order to get to the scale of the
numbers that Trump and Homan are talking about, you would need
billions, 10s of billions more dollars than the is currently
allocated and hundreds of thousands of more enforcement
officers. And if you're prepared to pull
in for military and police and put in all those resources and
by the way, what would who's looking after crime in America,
then you might get to a million a year.
You might get to 1,000,000, which is a hell of a lot.
Which is a hell of a lot. What about tariffs?
Can we expect much on tariffs in in week 1 the.
Interesting thing about tariffs again, is that you hear this
muddled messaging, where is is tariffs actually something that
Donald Trump will do and risk the potential economic effects
of that which which one assumes is what economists say will
affect the American consumer, the American people at a time
when they don't want that. Or is it, as people within his
team have said, is that it's a very good negotiating tactic to
bring people to the table to get the bill?
Because they're elastic, aren't they?
You can. And they're very arbitrary.
You can say 20% for you Kieran, 15 for you, Siobhan, and then
you can fight it out amongst each other.
I mean. But what I find so fascinating
is that, you know, whether you're talking to the Danish
government in Copenhagen after the Greenland episode, whether
you're talking to people in Ottawa, you know, Canadians
about, you know, my God, are we going to be the 51st state of
the United States? Whether you're talking to people
in Panama or indeed in Western Europe or Ukraine or China,
everyone around the planet is getting their affairs in order.
That's right for the possibility, eventuality, maybe
probability of what Trump may or may not do.
I mean, that is, you know, I think we should have to be
really clear. I think we're we are in a very
brave and chaotic new world when it comes to how America, which
has always been seen, for better or worse, as part of the
solution, will operate. And now to many people it is a
really big part of the problem. I think we, we, we've seen that
writ large with, you know, all hell will break loose if Hamas
doesn't come to the table. I mean, discuss.
That's a whole different discussion.
But or Netanyahu for that? Matter Netanyahu, but but I'm
saying he says these things and as you rightly say whether or
not he follows through it brings people to the table and it makes
them get their house in order whether it's we should pay more
into NATO. Mandelson, the new ambassador
here, he put out a statement or did an op-ed the other day and
he was parroting many of Trump's lines.
People should pay more into NATO.
I think Trump's right and you know so so I think it it has the
effect of making people sit up and listen whether or not those
tariffs immediately come in is not clear but but he's done it
before. I think he's pretty.
I think he's pretty firm on tariffs.
I think the America First agenda tariffs is one of the big tools
in the bag and. But how predictable, You know,
people like predictability, especially if you're a foreign
government or you're a foreign business.
You want predictability in order to plan your own future.
And one thing that really freaks out the Chinese is that Trump is
not predictable enough for them. And they are the masters or try
to be the masters of predictability.
I just wondered to what extent, you know, his personality, his
mercurial personality, underpinned by the fact that you
have an incredibly broad coalition of opinions around the
White House, much more so than 2016, all the way from RFK
junior to the kind of Marco Rubio, you know, pro pro-life,
traditional, you know, America, power projectors, anti China,
etcetera, etcetera. I mean, there's a vast coalition
of people there and then you have one thing in common and
that is their allegiance and feel to to Donald Trump, and
that's different. Which is, yeah, which is the big
sort of question mark over the next four years really, isn't
it? It's because we understand that
Trump has learnt his lessons from the from his first term,
that the people around him, you know, they're going to be much
more focused on his agenda and there won't be as many, sort of.
More loyal, yeah. Individuals within the
Republican Party speaking out against him.
But there that is still a fragile coalition in many ways,
Sure. And it's and it's figuring out
where the breaks will come and where the fallouts will come.
And we assume they they will happen.
A lot of what we can expect in the next 4 years will be
determined by the speech that he gives, you know, on Capitol Hill
on Inauguration Day. And I still remembered the
collective dropping of jaws and the intake of breath on the
podium in 2016. But also, you know, everywhere
when you talked about the carnage of America, carnage in
America, carnage is not a word on anyone's mind.
In 2016, the country did not look like carnage.
And there were problems. There was crime, there was
unemployment here and there, but it it didn't feel like carnage
central. Nor does it at the moment, to be
honest. It's divided, but it doesn't
feel like carnage central. Do you think that he will repeat
a line as abrasive as that, or will he try to show the gentler,
kinder side of Donald Trump? Who's now?
I've been thinking. He's got what he wanted and can
afford to unite the nation. I think I've been thinking about
this very thing. What?
What tone will he take? Well, what do you think?
Come on, predict the tone. You can do it.
You can feel the soul of Trump you.
Know. He's got he listens to you all
the. Time I, I am, I think he won't
be able to resist sort of carnage light, right.
It's not carnage as you say and he can't point.
He will try and point to carnage in the economy, but demonstrably
the numbers do not point to that crime.
Numbers that he really attached the carnage line to, again, do
not point to that crime is. But he doesn't care about
numbers. Does.
He but he doesn't care about numbers and he has to stick with
the narrative that won him the election.
So but I think there is there is carnage around immigration, but
isn't it? So I think he'll, I think he'll,
I think he'll. But interestingly, when he won,
there was a lot of talk of unity.
You were there that night. He did start.
There was talk of unity, which was the Trump the unifier is not
not what we're used to. But I think he does feel that he
has the power and the numbers and the swagger and the vibe
around him that he can try and be this unifier.
But if we if one thing we know about Trump is that he, you
know, he likes publicity. He's an attention seeker.
You know, we're in caps. Surely the thing that that that
gets you most attention when everyone is expecting carnage in
America from the podium is actually to say, you know, a
kumbaya, you know, peace in our time.
And that would have people's attention, right?
Maybe that's what he's going to do.
I don't know. Yeah, I mean.
Maybe you would assume that if you if you go back to the the
first inauguration speech, it was like it, it was two things.
It was American carnage. There's this, there's this
country where, you know, factories are rusting away.
You know, people haven't got jobs.
It's all depressing. And the other thing is that I'm
finally going to bring government away from the from
the elites in Washington back to you, the people.
Those are the two messages. And overall it was quite
negative. So you would assume it's going
to be much more positive and upbeat.
You know, this is Trump having won the victory.
But again, we're trying to predict Trump.
And as we've said, he is unpredictable.
And one of the fascinating things I read about in Time
magazine, where he was again made Time Person of the Year,
which he would love on the front cover and stuff, was that when
they spoke to him at Mar a Lago after the election, he was
almost flown in a bit downbeat. Because two things 1 he loves
campaigning and he loves fighting and he loves having
something to fight against. And two, he knows that that is
his last election campaign. So what what is this Trump?
Now? This is a guy who if you know,
he's won everything, but he loves fighting against people.
And that's that's the interesting thing here, isn't
it? If if he's any other politician
would be like, well, this is great.
I've won everything. Let's go and do loads of things.
Trump no longer has, you know, everything about him has been
about fighting against something.
And now he if he's the victor, what, what does he stand for and
what's he going? To do but he but he I think
there still will be battles ahead.
Don't forget they won the House, yes, but by a very slim majority
and there's lots of infighting, forgive me, within the
Republican House, Mike Johnson, his speaker isn't the most
popular so I think there will be mini battles for.
Sure. But also he knows he's got two
years with his majority to get stuff done.
And then in the midterms, unless they predictable, it'll be, you
know, it'll be, it'll probably be over in terms of his majority
because that's what tends to happen.
And finally, we haven't talked about the Democrats at all,
which is extraordinary in itself.
What are they doing? Are they doing?
Is every meeting of Democrats now a kind of session of self
flagellation and Mayor corpus? What are they doing?
There's lots of hand wringing. There's lots of navel gazing.
But they've basically thrown up their hands in resignation,
haven't they? And and a bit of, I think,
subliminal anger. Bring us back to the beginning
of what we just talked about. But they have for the moment,
they're still very shocked. They're nursing their wounds.
There's still a lot of anger about Biden and the and what
happened, but I think they'll regroup.
I mean, I, I was reading yesterday, you know, there's
definitely less of a backlash. There was 100 or so that didn't
come to the other the first Trump inauguration.
The majority are there's a list of now about 10 who aren't.
I think they'll fight their battles in their states.
Seems to be the the the the the method rather than big public
protests against him here. And of course, Biden, Kieran, in
his, you know, valedictory speech at the end, said, we're
becoming an oligarchy. And you could say, hang on a
minute, it was ever thus, right? I mean, powerful people,
billionaires around the presidency, there are plenty of
billionaires who give money to the Democrats.
But the difference, I guess, this time round is that they are
more overt in the way that they are funding the president's, the
president, not just the presidency.
They're much more in the inner circle, much more openly so than
they were before, you know, under Obama or Biden.
Yeah. And I guess that sort of comes,
I think that's what Biden was saying about the oligarchy is
obviously a very important point and a worrying point for many
people, You know, people like Elon Musk and others.
And there are many more, you know, Peter Thiel, for example,
sort of maneuvering around the White House.
But you know, the Democrats also back in the day, you know, had
Silicon Valley behind Obama, etcetera.
You know, this, this flits, this flits conflict between the two.
And I think that's the important thing to remember is that when
we talk about that vibe shift in it feel like things are behind
Trump. You know, whenever it comes to
any election, there is always a reaction in in the media and
amongst political parties in this country and elsewhere to
say it's the end. You know, it's the end.
How did they ever come back? And then you actually come back,
you know, so the idea that the Democrats, they are definitely
feeling completely, well, I mean, they're angry because of
Biden hanging on. And there should have been a
more open primary. And how do we let this all
happen? Blah blah blah.
Of course they will, but you know, the midterms are a moment
and then in four years time there is no.
Trouble. Two years ago, trouble was an
outcast and then we said this so things.
Things do change, and I guess so do you think that as a result of
the majority he's got, the campaign he fought and what he
wants to do to this country, the America that starts on
Inauguration Day will be fundamentally and forever
different to the America that everyone else had got used to,
you know, since World War 2, effectively both in terms of
domestic and foreign policy. I think it could be.
It could indeed be. I think the key thing is that
when we talk about Trump first, first term to this term is that
he also had a Republican House and Senate last time and he
didn't do the things as well as he could do in the first two
years before the the blue wave in 2019.
The key thing is, if it is going to be a fundamental sea change
and it has concrete results in terms of this country and
beyond, it's Trump trying to get those promises done much more
efficiently. In his first year, yeah,
there's. Let me ask you like this, Sean,
is this the end of the Republic as we know it?
No, I think I think that he will.
I think that they'll there will be we keep coming back to the
shock and awe. I think he will try and get
things done quickly. We've seen the House Republicans
say we're ready this time. You know, we've he he's got his
people who are all much more subservient.
I do think that one thing we can't calculate is, you know,
when you're having chats on the phone with world leaders and
Elon Musk is sitting beside you when he's on those call, I think
we compare it to last time he came in, he made changes, but he
found it hard. He didn't do as much as he said
he was going to. The only thing we can't, we
don't have any experience, there's no precedent is when you
have got the Elon Musk of this world sitting beside you and
having your ear and broadcasting on Twitter and being as
influential. Sorry.
And being as influential, I, I think that's an unknown quantity
that I think none of us can apply on because we haven't been
here before. And how that will shape the
presidency. I that's to me the kind of
$1,000,000 question. Siobhan and Kieran, thank you
very much to both of you. That's it from the forecast here
in Washington, DC in inauguration week.
All I've got to say to you is buckle up.
It's going to get interesting.