1 00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:02,880 Welcome to the forecast from Washington, DC, where 2 00:00:02,920 --> 00:00:06,680 everything, and I mean everything is about to change. 3 00:00:06,680 --> 00:00:10,080 Not just the inauguration itself on Monday, which Donald Trump 4 00:00:10,080 --> 00:00:13,600 has moved inside because apparently it's far too cold for 5 00:00:13,600 --> 00:00:16,440 all those people to turn up on the Mall in front of the Capitol 6 00:00:16,440 --> 00:00:19,200 building. But also what this inauguration 7 00:00:19,200 --> 00:00:22,320 signifies for America and for the rest of the world. 8 00:00:22,640 --> 00:00:26,400 You could call it the climax of the triumph of right wing 9 00:00:26,400 --> 00:00:29,480 populism across the board. Well, to discuss not just what's 10 00:00:29,480 --> 00:00:31,560 going to happen on Inauguration Day itself, but also the 11 00:00:31,560 --> 00:00:35,680 consequences and the first week of Trump, the sequel, I'm joined 12 00:00:35,680 --> 00:00:38,680 by Kieran Woodley and by Siobhan Kennedy, our Washington 13 00:00:38,680 --> 00:00:40,160 correspondent. Welcome to you both. 14 00:00:40,960 --> 00:00:41,600 Thank you. Thank you. 15 00:00:41,600 --> 00:00:44,240 Is it the final festival of progressive America? 16 00:00:44,240 --> 00:00:45,880 The kind of the wake of I? Don't think so. 17 00:00:45,880 --> 00:00:48,720 I think progressive America feels that way right now. 18 00:00:48,720 --> 00:00:52,080 I think they're still very wounded and distressed by what's 19 00:00:52,080 --> 00:00:54,800 happened. I think for a while, yes, it's 20 00:00:54,800 --> 00:00:58,200 very clear that their policies and their desires will be very 21 00:00:58,200 --> 00:01:02,520 much pushed to the side. But remember, two years ago, 22 00:01:02,520 --> 00:01:05,519 Donald Trump himself was an outcast after the midterms. 23 00:01:05,519 --> 00:01:08,600 He was politically frozen even by his own party. 24 00:01:09,080 --> 00:01:12,440 So yes, it all feels like not just Trump's Republican Party, 25 00:01:12,440 --> 00:01:17,480 but Trump's world right now. But progressives and Democrats 26 00:01:17,480 --> 00:01:21,200 are a tough bunch, and they might roll over for this 27 00:01:21,200 --> 00:01:23,000 inauguration. There might not be the same 28 00:01:23,000 --> 00:01:24,520 sense of. Push back. 29 00:01:24,560 --> 00:01:26,240 Push back. Yeah, I can't think of the word. 30 00:01:26,400 --> 00:01:28,400 Anger or wait? I mean, the one thing I've one 31 00:01:28,400 --> 00:01:31,080 thing I've noticed is, but I was here for the for the first Trump 32 00:01:31,080 --> 00:01:34,080 inauguration, 2016, you know, you couldn't walk around the 33 00:01:34,080 --> 00:01:36,040 city with the Marga hat. Not that I was wearing one. 34 00:01:36,040 --> 00:01:38,240 But, you know, if you did wear a Marga hat, you know, people were 35 00:01:38,240 --> 00:01:39,400 quite rude to you. Yeah. 36 00:01:39,600 --> 00:01:41,720 And because they thought that basically Margot and Trump were 37 00:01:41,720 --> 00:01:44,120 the aberration, the mood. Kieran this time around is 38 00:01:44,120 --> 00:01:47,320 remarkably different, isn't it? Yes, and even from even from the 39 00:01:47,320 --> 00:01:48,920 Biden inauguration. I mean, I think this is the 40 00:01:48,920 --> 00:01:52,040 first inauguration, I guess, since the Obama ones where there 41 00:01:52,040 --> 00:01:55,120 does feel to seem seem to be a vibe shift in terms of much more 42 00:01:55,120 --> 00:01:56,840 positivity. Because as you say, in 2017, 43 00:01:56,880 --> 00:01:59,520 there was so much anger boiling over. 44 00:01:59,520 --> 00:02:01,960 There was a women's March the following day, which had bigger 45 00:02:01,960 --> 00:02:03,600 crowds than the Trump inauguration. 46 00:02:03,760 --> 00:02:07,040 Four years ago, Trump after January the 6th and we were in 47 00:02:07,040 --> 00:02:09,000 the midst of COVID, there were hardly anywhere there weren't 48 00:02:09,000 --> 00:02:10,639 allowed to be crowds. Everything was still felt 49 00:02:10,919 --> 00:02:12,360 negative. So this time there feels like 50 00:02:12,360 --> 00:02:15,000 there is a vibe shift where Trump has sort of, he's done 51 00:02:15,000 --> 00:02:17,800 this, he's done 3 elections, he's won two of them. 52 00:02:17,960 --> 00:02:20,080 He's won the argument. His supporters feel they've 53 00:02:20,320 --> 00:02:23,480 they've won this moment. This feels like a movement has 54 00:02:23,480 --> 00:02:25,640 happened. And but the big question really 55 00:02:25,640 --> 00:02:28,360 is where does it go next? We'll discuss that a minute. 56 00:02:28,360 --> 00:02:30,200 But I mean, the other difference is that, you know, Trump's, 57 00:02:30,200 --> 00:02:32,560 like, likes to point out that it was a landslide victory, the 58 00:02:32,560 --> 00:02:34,560 biggest in the history, which is nonsense, of course. 59 00:02:35,320 --> 00:02:38,320 The margins are fairly tight, but they are convincing, 60 00:02:38,560 --> 00:02:40,280 Siobhan. Yeah, I mean, they are and, and 61 00:02:40,280 --> 00:02:43,760 crucially for him, he won the popular vote, which was the big 62 00:02:44,080 --> 00:02:46,280 deal for him. But yes, he run it by a very 63 00:02:46,280 --> 00:02:50,280 small margin. So, yeah, I mean, I just, it's 64 00:02:50,320 --> 00:02:53,320 it's a convincing win. And that's what it feels like 65 00:02:53,320 --> 00:02:55,840 here in DC. And people are rolling over and 66 00:02:55,840 --> 00:02:57,000 they're going with the inauguration. 67 00:02:57,000 --> 00:03:00,040 But I don't think to your original point that this is 68 00:03:00,600 --> 00:03:03,280 Trump's world forever. I think let's just give it some 69 00:03:03,280 --> 00:03:04,760 time. There's going to be a lot of 70 00:03:04,760 --> 00:03:06,480 shock and awe in the first few weeks. 71 00:03:06,480 --> 00:03:08,920 And we're expecting that in the first few months and perhaps the 72 00:03:08,920 --> 00:03:11,920 first year. But I think that you will very 73 00:03:11,920 --> 00:03:15,480 quickly see push back and as we all know, things change very 74 00:03:15,480 --> 00:03:17,440 quickly in politics and certainly here in DC and. 75 00:03:17,440 --> 00:03:19,680 Of course, his supporters do hope it's going to be Trump's 76 00:03:19,680 --> 00:03:21,440 world forever. They very, they're very much 77 00:03:21,440 --> 00:03:24,600 invested in this, in this being a fundamental change, a 78 00:03:24,600 --> 00:03:26,720 transformation of America. Yes. 79 00:03:26,720 --> 00:03:29,280 And again, it's that what I'm almost saying, it's that it's 80 00:03:29,280 --> 00:03:32,960 that that vibe of the feeling of a, of a real turning point 81 00:03:33,600 --> 00:03:36,760 against the actual practicalities of the politics 82 00:03:36,760 --> 00:03:38,840 of it all. Because not just what he can do, 83 00:03:38,840 --> 00:03:41,000 but also, you know, he did only win, He did win the popular 84 00:03:41,000 --> 00:03:44,680 vote, but only by like 1.5%. You know, he won the swings, he 85 00:03:44,680 --> 00:03:45,960 won all those seven swing states. 86 00:03:45,960 --> 00:03:49,960 But it's not like a big landslide in the way of Obama or 87 00:03:49,960 --> 00:03:51,160 anything else. But it feels that way. 88 00:03:51,160 --> 00:03:53,000 And I think that's a really interesting thing that it feels 89 00:03:53,000 --> 00:03:54,800 like and he's. Very good at making it feel. 90 00:03:54,800 --> 00:03:56,720 Yeah, he's like, it feels like that's what he does. 91 00:03:56,720 --> 00:03:59,080 He's had the final say, but he hasn't yet because there are 92 00:03:59,080 --> 00:04:01,280 this next four years to go. We'll talk about day one and 93 00:04:01,280 --> 00:04:04,040 week one in a minute, but just on the inauguration itself, it's 94 00:04:04,040 --> 00:04:07,040 fascinating to me that a man who's so obsessed with crowd 95 00:04:07,040 --> 00:04:10,120 sizes, who I, you would have thought could have banked on a 96 00:04:10,120 --> 00:04:12,520 bigger crowd this time round than in 2016, right? 97 00:04:12,520 --> 00:04:14,080 Because it, it was a bigger victory. 98 00:04:14,320 --> 00:04:16,600 You know, the Margaret crowd feel, you know, empowered, 99 00:04:16,600 --> 00:04:19,120 etcetera, etcetera, that he's moved it inside. 100 00:04:19,120 --> 00:04:21,880 Now the official reason is that it's going to be too cold. 101 00:04:22,160 --> 00:04:24,040 But actually it might not be all that cold. 102 00:04:24,040 --> 00:04:25,600 Is he worried about the numbers being too small? 103 00:04:25,600 --> 00:04:27,240 Yes, he is, because that's what NBC is reporting. 104 00:04:27,280 --> 00:04:31,440 I wonder if he must because no one will ever forget that the 105 00:04:31,440 --> 00:04:35,160 long pan of them all last time, terrible people here and then it 106 00:04:35,160 --> 00:04:36,760 just and then nobody towards the back. 107 00:04:36,760 --> 00:04:38,240 So I think he's worried about that. 108 00:04:38,240 --> 00:04:41,200 And I think he also just loves the, he just loves the getting 109 00:04:41,200 --> 00:04:44,400 in among the crowd and, and, and being the center of attention, 110 00:04:44,400 --> 00:04:47,200 which necessarily he won't be. But there is also, there is also 111 00:04:47,200 --> 00:04:50,200 the thing that maybe there's also I think here like the 112 00:04:50,200 --> 00:04:54,320 fundamental issue with Trump and, and how he he sees this 113 00:04:54,320 --> 00:04:57,520 moment is that on the one hand, you would expect him to want to 114 00:04:57,520 --> 00:04:59,240 have all these crowds and to have all his supporters out 115 00:04:59,240 --> 00:05:00,600 there. On the other hand, he now has a 116 00:05:00,600 --> 00:05:04,400 smaller Rotunda where he can have perhaps the people who 117 00:05:04,400 --> 00:05:07,320 might be much more important than all this Elon Musk, you 118 00:05:07,320 --> 00:05:08,360 know, Jeff Bezos. Yeah, but they. 119 00:05:08,360 --> 00:05:09,720 Would have been on this on the stage anyway. 120 00:05:09,720 --> 00:05:11,920 Yeah, but now he's got. But it's almost like is is he 121 00:05:12,720 --> 00:05:14,560 the argument? And this is where the new push 122 00:05:14,560 --> 00:05:16,680 back is coming from, from the Democrats who are sort of in 123 00:05:16,680 --> 00:05:18,320 disarray. Is this what Biden was saying, 124 00:05:18,320 --> 00:05:20,560 this oligarchy? So this is now what we're seeing 125 00:05:20,560 --> 00:05:23,040 is this oligarchy of, you know, Trump says he's there for 126 00:05:23,040 --> 00:05:24,200 America first and for the people. 127 00:05:24,200 --> 00:05:27,400 But actually, you know, he's got the circus, he's got these 128 00:05:27,400 --> 00:05:29,320 people who nudging him saying, hey, you know, I've got, I've 129 00:05:29,320 --> 00:05:31,040 got, you know, I've got money and TikTok. 130 00:05:31,360 --> 00:05:33,320 Let's try and bring it. Back OK, let's look at the guest 131 00:05:33,320 --> 00:05:35,240 list. You know, what does that tell 132 00:05:35,240 --> 00:05:38,240 you about the Trump, the next Trump presidency from who's been 133 00:05:38,240 --> 00:05:40,560 invited and who's not been invited? 134 00:05:40,600 --> 00:05:43,720 Well, as I say, you know, the oligarchs who will be on display 135 00:05:43,720 --> 00:05:47,640 as Joe Biden talks about them, you know, Elon Musk, Yes, 136 00:05:47,640 --> 00:05:49,400 exactly Elon Musk. You know, it's fascinating to 137 00:05:49,400 --> 00:05:51,560 see, you know, Mark Zuckerberg. I mean, I think that game. 138 00:05:51,560 --> 00:05:54,160 Who turned up yesterday and was surrounded by bodyguards and 139 00:05:54,160 --> 00:05:57,400 went to one of the many sort of inaugural balls or pre inaugural 140 00:05:57,400 --> 00:05:58,840 balls? Which goes, which goes into this 141 00:05:58,840 --> 00:06:00,640 vibe, vibe shift. You know, I mean, it was only 142 00:06:00,640 --> 00:06:03,720 four years ago that, you know, what was then Facebook, now 143 00:06:03,720 --> 00:06:07,880 Meta, you know them, them exactly them along with Twitter, 144 00:06:07,880 --> 00:06:09,440 now X, you know, everything's changed. 145 00:06:09,800 --> 00:06:11,680 You know, he was, he was banned from those platforms after 146 00:06:11,680 --> 00:06:13,920 January 6th and now they're all there. 147 00:06:14,200 --> 00:06:17,280 And not only that, they've all given, not just bending the 148 00:06:17,280 --> 00:06:20,840 knee, but also writing, they've each given $1,000,000 to the 149 00:06:20,840 --> 00:06:23,360 inauguration committee. Never has an inauguration 150 00:06:23,360 --> 00:06:26,680 committee ever had this much money to to spend on canopies 151 00:06:26,680 --> 00:06:28,160 and drinks or music, whatever else. 152 00:06:28,520 --> 00:06:31,600 And there's this amazing image of Zuckerberg, which I cannot 153 00:06:31,600 --> 00:06:34,960 get out of my head. Zuckerberg at Mar a Lago, I 154 00:06:34,960 --> 00:06:37,640 think about a month ago, yeah, not just kissing the ring of 155 00:06:37,640 --> 00:06:41,080 Trump, but also then listening to the January the 6th Memorial 156 00:06:41,080 --> 00:06:43,520 Choir perform the national anthem. 157 00:06:43,680 --> 00:06:45,000 And he's got his hand on his heart. 158 00:06:45,280 --> 00:06:47,360 That is a very different Zuckerberg to the one that we 159 00:06:47,360 --> 00:06:48,800 saw, as you said, four years ago. 160 00:06:49,160 --> 00:06:50,640 So. So the millionaire Bros will all 161 00:06:50,640 --> 00:06:52,080 be there. I wonder if Musk is going to be 162 00:06:52,080 --> 00:06:54,320 allowed to move into the White House, will he have an? 163 00:06:54,480 --> 00:06:55,880 Honestly I was thinking the same thing. 164 00:06:55,880 --> 00:06:58,760 He's been paying $2000 a night to live in Mar a Lago. 165 00:06:59,040 --> 00:07:01,400 Where will he live now? I mean, he will think this, I'm 166 00:07:01,400 --> 00:07:02,440 sure. He'll find a hotel room 167 00:07:02,440 --> 00:07:04,600 somewhere, but will he be? Because this is, I think we've 168 00:07:04,600 --> 00:07:07,080 got a, the Trump presidency like a medieval court. 169 00:07:07,080 --> 00:07:09,920 This is like Henry the Eighth without the culture and and 170 00:07:09,920 --> 00:07:11,560 nukes, right? It's a bit like that. 171 00:07:11,560 --> 00:07:13,720 So access to the monarch is vital. 172 00:07:14,160 --> 00:07:16,200 So I wonder. He'll have an office next door. 173 00:07:16,200 --> 00:07:19,240 Well, I wonder because Steve Bannon, you know, and, and the 174 00:07:19,240 --> 00:07:22,720 Margaret crowd, the hardcore Margaret crowd who hate Musk and 175 00:07:22,720 --> 00:07:23,320 they hate him. But I. 176 00:07:23,320 --> 00:07:24,800 Think there are, there are two things, two things there. 177 00:07:24,800 --> 00:07:27,800 I mean, one, as you say, there is, you know, within the within 178 00:07:27,840 --> 00:07:31,200 this Republican victory, there are obviously competing 179 00:07:31,200 --> 00:07:33,520 factions. There are the America first sort 180 00:07:33,520 --> 00:07:36,440 of almost JD Vance types who want, you know, you know, they 181 00:07:36,440 --> 00:07:39,560 still want a government which ensures that Americans are much 182 00:07:39,560 --> 00:07:40,960 more prosperous. You know, they're getting 183 00:07:41,520 --> 00:07:43,520 welfares, Social Security, etcetera. 184 00:07:43,680 --> 00:07:45,760 On the other hand, you have Elon Musk a lot who actually like 185 00:07:45,760 --> 00:07:48,800 smaller government and still believe in that sort of 186 00:07:48,800 --> 00:07:51,320 capitalist thing, which we've seen with the dispute over the 187 00:07:51,320 --> 00:07:52,840 visas. But the other point when it 188 00:07:52,840 --> 00:07:54,600 talks about is Elon Musk going to go into the White House? 189 00:07:54,600 --> 00:07:56,360 I think the one thing you've always got to remember with 190 00:07:56,520 --> 00:08:00,240 Trump and this goes throughout his life, is that the the number 191 00:08:00,240 --> 00:08:02,240 one person who should always be the focus is Trump. 192 00:08:02,400 --> 00:08:05,560 I think the only person he's ever sort of allowed to dominate 193 00:08:05,560 --> 00:08:07,200 him in any way is his father. You know, he has all these 194 00:08:07,320 --> 00:08:10,800 father issues, etcetera. So I think if Elon Musk ever 195 00:08:10,800 --> 00:08:15,640 becomes someone who grabs more headlines than Trump and surely 196 00:08:15,640 --> 00:08:17,280 has more power, he will be. Thrown under the Trump bus. 197 00:08:17,280 --> 00:08:19,840 Exactly. OK, let's look at day one. 198 00:08:19,960 --> 00:08:22,360 Like, what can we? And he, he talks a lot about day 199 00:08:22,360 --> 00:08:24,200 one. Day one is, you know, Monday 200 00:08:24,240 --> 00:08:26,520 afternoon. What? 201 00:08:26,600 --> 00:08:29,240 So he's going to go to the White House after the ceremony. 202 00:08:29,240 --> 00:08:31,840 He's going to sit down at the Resolute Desk in the Oval 203 00:08:31,840 --> 00:08:33,840 Office. He's going to sign how many 204 00:08:33,840 --> 00:08:36,320 emergency decrees? Well, I mean, I was, I was 205 00:08:36,320 --> 00:08:39,919 listening to Charlie Kirk, who's a, you know, a podcast on an 206 00:08:39,919 --> 00:08:42,120 influential sort of younger voice in this movement and he 207 00:08:42,120 --> 00:08:45,360 was talking about a, a blitzkrieg of executive orders, 208 00:08:45,360 --> 00:08:49,080 hundreds and hundreds. We think there's going to be 209 00:08:49,080 --> 00:08:52,160 obviously ones on immigration that there'll be ones to do. 210 00:08:52,160 --> 00:08:54,560 I think specifically on energy and electric vehicles, there's 211 00:08:54,720 --> 00:08:57,360 a, an executive order which he completely get rid of, which was 212 00:08:57,360 --> 00:09:00,840 a Joe Biden one about an incentive for electric vehicles 213 00:09:00,840 --> 00:09:02,720 by 20-30, which he can get rid of completely. 214 00:09:03,720 --> 00:09:07,000 There could be possibly January 6 pardons. 215 00:09:07,000 --> 00:09:09,560 I mean, he can do all these areas of orders. 216 00:09:09,600 --> 00:09:12,800 It's about sending that message and a narrative of I'm doing 217 00:09:12,800 --> 00:09:14,200 something. He doesn't want to flood the 218 00:09:14,200 --> 00:09:16,400 zone with too many of them. I'm I guess he wants people to 219 00:09:16,400 --> 00:09:19,080 notice what they are and, and immigration and deportation. 220 00:09:19,320 --> 00:09:21,440 I think he'll see. I think we'll see things like 221 00:09:21,440 --> 00:09:24,280 things that are very easy for him are pulling out of Paris, 222 00:09:24,280 --> 00:09:26,280 Paris climate accord that that will happen. 223 00:09:26,560 --> 00:09:28,840 I think, I think you know, he will be really interesting to 224 00:09:28,840 --> 00:09:30,760 see if he pulls the EV incentives for you. 225 00:09:30,760 --> 00:09:32,600 Say that easy. Easy for him, It's slightly 226 00:09:32,600 --> 00:09:33,680 harder for the planet I would have. 227 00:09:33,680 --> 00:09:35,760 Thought and it's slightly harder when your right hand man is Elon 228 00:09:35,760 --> 00:09:37,320 Musk. I mean, we're immediately going 229 00:09:37,320 --> 00:09:39,760 to see some pushback there and that there's going to be tension 230 00:09:39,880 --> 00:09:42,400 One of their they're going after energy in a big way. 231 00:09:42,400 --> 00:09:45,280 And yet here is the man beside him who's brought him to the 232 00:09:45,280 --> 00:09:48,600 White House, who is Mr. Green Energy, I think. 233 00:09:48,600 --> 00:09:50,640 But really the, the, the, the big thing is going to be 234 00:09:50,640 --> 00:09:51,880 migration. I think we're going to see that 235 00:09:51,880 --> 00:09:53,160 this week. I think there is going to that's 236 00:09:53,160 --> 00:09:55,440 where they're going for the shock and awe whether whether 237 00:09:55,440 --> 00:09:58,280 they achieve it, how they achieve it, because this is 238 00:09:58,280 --> 00:10:00,960 really difficult stuff. It's really difficult stuff. 239 00:10:01,160 --> 00:10:03,040 They're not something going to go with a big net and round 240 00:10:03,040 --> 00:10:04,400 people up, tied up and talk them out. 241 00:10:04,560 --> 00:10:05,880 That's what they say they're going to do. 242 00:10:05,880 --> 00:10:07,840 But I think it's going to be. Mahoman, who is the kind of 243 00:10:07,840 --> 00:10:09,680 immigration that the deportations. 244 00:10:09,680 --> 00:10:11,560 Are. Yes, he's actually used the word 245 00:10:11,560 --> 00:10:13,160 shock and awe, he said in interviews. 246 00:10:13,160 --> 00:10:15,240 There will be shock and awe in the first week when it comes to 247 00:10:15,240 --> 00:10:17,080 deportation. And apparently, according to the 248 00:10:17,080 --> 00:10:19,680 Wall Street Journal, the city that they've targeted, you know, 249 00:10:19,720 --> 00:10:22,960 it's Chicago, bastion of Democratic politics, sanctuary 250 00:10:23,040 --> 00:10:24,440 city. And that's where they've already 251 00:10:24,440 --> 00:10:27,520 started to kind of compile lists and the rounding up people. 252 00:10:27,520 --> 00:10:29,640 But they have. But because it's leaked, the 253 00:10:29,640 --> 00:10:31,680 last thing you want to do is leak everyone's scatters. 254 00:10:31,680 --> 00:10:34,360 They're saying now, or he's saying now at least Homan, that 255 00:10:34,640 --> 00:10:37,480 Oh no, we might not do Chicago, but the point is they're going 256 00:10:37,480 --> 00:10:40,560 to do all the sanctuary cities that have been welcoming and 257 00:10:40,560 --> 00:10:44,920 kind and who's Democratic leaders are saying you leave 258 00:10:44,920 --> 00:10:46,720 these people alone. So we're going to see shock and 259 00:10:46,720 --> 00:10:48,320 awe. The shock and awe might more be 260 00:10:48,440 --> 00:10:51,320 the push back with Democratic leaders and and then the police 261 00:10:51,320 --> 00:10:54,400 and people on the streets. You know that it will be with 262 00:10:54,400 --> 00:10:56,640 them rounding up migrants and throwing them out. 263 00:10:56,640 --> 00:11:00,720 I think that you'll definitely see more officers National 264 00:11:00,720 --> 00:11:01,880 Guard. You'll see that's what they 265 00:11:01,880 --> 00:11:03,120 immediately brought to the border. 266 00:11:03,120 --> 00:11:04,880 But of course, the border's not the problem at the moment. 267 00:11:05,080 --> 00:11:08,320 It's the interior and the millions and millions of people 268 00:11:08,320 --> 00:11:13,280 that Biden let in and allowed to go and be with their sponsors in 269 00:11:13,280 --> 00:11:15,240 the country. How will he round those up? 270 00:11:15,640 --> 00:11:17,640 And it's the criminals he wants first, don't forget. 271 00:11:17,640 --> 00:11:21,400 But and then the potential for for human drama, for real 272 00:11:21,400 --> 00:11:23,520 suffering, for families, families being torn apart, the 273 00:11:23,520 --> 00:11:27,080 stuff that we saw in 2016, but on a much bigger scale, you 274 00:11:27,080 --> 00:11:30,080 know, that's definitely here. It will be a a a shock and all 275 00:11:30,080 --> 00:11:32,520 process to to be seen that he's doing something. 276 00:11:32,680 --> 00:11:37,520 But I think already Homan was talking about scaling back some 277 00:11:37,520 --> 00:11:41,280 of the the positivity around how much they could actually do and 278 00:11:41,280 --> 00:11:43,360 actually warning Congress, you know, if we want to do this in 279 00:11:43,360 --> 00:11:44,960 the long run rather than a few ICE raids. 280 00:11:44,960 --> 00:11:48,280 And we actually want to really clamp down on this in terms of 281 00:11:48,880 --> 00:11:51,600 the people who are unauthorized. But also, you know, trying to 282 00:11:51,600 --> 00:11:53,640 get all the different levels of because when we talk about 283 00:11:53,760 --> 00:11:55,920 undocumented, there are so many different, so many catalogues 284 00:11:56,240 --> 00:11:57,440 that's going to take a lot of money. 285 00:11:57,760 --> 00:12:00,960 And this is a Congress which, you know, Donald Trump does not 286 00:12:00,960 --> 00:12:02,240 want to spend loads of money necessarily. 287 00:12:02,240 --> 00:12:04,640 This is a Congress which he doesn't have that many people, 288 00:12:04,640 --> 00:12:06,720 especially in the House. So it's going to be a long 289 00:12:06,720 --> 00:12:09,480 tricky pathway ahead just as much as. 290 00:12:09,640 --> 00:12:11,320 And we are seeing some backtracking, not just on 291 00:12:11,320 --> 00:12:12,560 immigration, but also with Ukraine. 292 00:12:12,560 --> 00:12:13,880 It was going to be dealt with in one day. 293 00:12:13,880 --> 00:12:15,720 Now it's going to be more than that. 294 00:12:15,720 --> 00:12:17,440 You know, there are those things and. 295 00:12:17,440 --> 00:12:19,560 Just to be clear, I mean, you know, he talked during the 296 00:12:19,560 --> 00:12:23,160 campaign, although less so in recent weeks, about the 297 00:12:23,160 --> 00:12:26,000 11,000,000 number of undocumented, documented, you 298 00:12:26,000 --> 00:12:27,760 know, people, foreigners in this country. 299 00:12:28,160 --> 00:12:30,640 I mean, to deport 11,000,000 is virtually impossible and it's 300 00:12:30,640 --> 00:12:33,360 too costly and it'll also have a massive inflationary effect on 301 00:12:33,560 --> 00:12:36,200 the labour market and so on. So I think we can assume that 302 00:12:36,200 --> 00:12:41,200 that would probably not happen. We spoke to an ICE, the head of 303 00:12:41,200 --> 00:12:46,240 ICE under Biden for a piece we did before Christmas who said, I 304 00:12:46,240 --> 00:12:49,360 sorry, the immigration control. For those of us who. 305 00:12:49,360 --> 00:12:52,360 Enforcement agency works within the Department of Homeland 306 00:12:52,360 --> 00:12:54,160 Security. It's that the people that get 307 00:12:54,280 --> 00:12:58,720 get the immigrants out enforcement and he ran that 308 00:12:58,720 --> 00:13:02,880 business and he said, he said in order to get to the scale of the 309 00:13:02,880 --> 00:13:05,640 numbers that Trump and Homan are talking about, you would need 310 00:13:06,200 --> 00:13:09,320 billions, 10s of billions more dollars than the is currently 311 00:13:09,320 --> 00:13:12,400 allocated and hundreds of thousands of more enforcement 312 00:13:12,400 --> 00:13:14,600 officers. And if you're prepared to pull 313 00:13:14,600 --> 00:13:18,200 in for military and police and put in all those resources and 314 00:13:18,200 --> 00:13:20,440 by the way, what would who's looking after crime in America, 315 00:13:20,440 --> 00:13:23,400 then you might get to a million a year. 316 00:13:23,440 --> 00:13:25,200 You might get to 1,000,000, which is a hell of a lot. 317 00:13:25,200 --> 00:13:27,080 Which is a hell of a lot. What about tariffs? 318 00:13:27,080 --> 00:13:29,360 Can we expect much on tariffs in in week 1 the. 319 00:13:29,680 --> 00:13:31,920 Interesting thing about tariffs again, is that you hear this 320 00:13:31,920 --> 00:13:35,400 muddled messaging, where is is tariffs actually something that 321 00:13:35,680 --> 00:13:39,880 Donald Trump will do and risk the potential economic effects 322 00:13:39,880 --> 00:13:43,520 of that which which one assumes is what economists say will 323 00:13:43,520 --> 00:13:46,240 affect the American consumer, the American people at a time 324 00:13:46,240 --> 00:13:50,400 when they don't want that. Or is it, as people within his 325 00:13:50,400 --> 00:13:53,880 team have said, is that it's a very good negotiating tactic to 326 00:13:53,880 --> 00:13:55,800 bring people to the table to get the bill? 327 00:13:55,800 --> 00:13:56,800 Because they're elastic, aren't they? 328 00:13:56,880 --> 00:13:58,120 You can. And they're very arbitrary. 329 00:13:58,120 --> 00:14:02,280 You can say 20% for you Kieran, 15 for you, Siobhan, and then 330 00:14:02,280 --> 00:14:03,640 you can fight it out amongst each other. 331 00:14:03,640 --> 00:14:05,880 I mean. But what I find so fascinating 332 00:14:05,880 --> 00:14:08,520 is that, you know, whether you're talking to the Danish 333 00:14:08,520 --> 00:14:12,720 government in Copenhagen after the Greenland episode, whether 334 00:14:12,720 --> 00:14:15,080 you're talking to people in Ottawa, you know, Canadians 335 00:14:15,080 --> 00:14:17,800 about, you know, my God, are we going to be the 51st state of 336 00:14:17,800 --> 00:14:19,760 the United States? Whether you're talking to people 337 00:14:19,760 --> 00:14:23,240 in Panama or indeed in Western Europe or Ukraine or China, 338 00:14:23,720 --> 00:14:27,840 everyone around the planet is getting their affairs in order. 339 00:14:27,840 --> 00:14:30,760 That's right for the possibility, eventuality, maybe 340 00:14:30,760 --> 00:14:33,600 probability of what Trump may or may not do. 341 00:14:33,680 --> 00:14:35,920 I mean, that is, you know, I think we should have to be 342 00:14:35,920 --> 00:14:38,480 really clear. I think we're we are in a very 343 00:14:38,480 --> 00:14:42,480 brave and chaotic new world when it comes to how America, which 344 00:14:42,480 --> 00:14:45,080 has always been seen, for better or worse, as part of the 345 00:14:45,080 --> 00:14:48,960 solution, will operate. And now to many people it is a 346 00:14:48,960 --> 00:14:51,280 really big part of the problem. I think we, we, we've seen that 347 00:14:51,280 --> 00:14:54,480 writ large with, you know, all hell will break loose if Hamas 348 00:14:54,480 --> 00:14:56,560 doesn't come to the table. I mean, discuss. 349 00:14:56,560 --> 00:14:57,800 That's a whole different discussion. 350 00:14:58,080 --> 00:15:00,920 But or Netanyahu for that? Matter Netanyahu, but but I'm 351 00:15:00,920 --> 00:15:04,000 saying he says these things and as you rightly say whether or 352 00:15:04,000 --> 00:15:07,000 not he follows through it brings people to the table and it makes 353 00:15:07,000 --> 00:15:09,520 them get their house in order whether it's we should pay more 354 00:15:10,040 --> 00:15:12,840 into NATO. Mandelson, the new ambassador 355 00:15:12,840 --> 00:15:16,000 here, he put out a statement or did an op-ed the other day and 356 00:15:16,000 --> 00:15:18,640 he was parroting many of Trump's lines. 357 00:15:18,800 --> 00:15:20,160 People should pay more into NATO. 358 00:15:20,240 --> 00:15:23,680 I think Trump's right and you know so so I think it it has the 359 00:15:23,680 --> 00:15:27,840 effect of making people sit up and listen whether or not those 360 00:15:27,840 --> 00:15:31,760 tariffs immediately come in is not clear but but he's done it 361 00:15:31,760 --> 00:15:32,840 before. I think he's pretty. 362 00:15:32,840 --> 00:15:34,600 I think he's pretty firm on tariffs. 363 00:15:34,600 --> 00:15:39,320 I think the America First agenda tariffs is one of the big tools 364 00:15:39,320 --> 00:15:43,040 in the bag and. But how predictable, You know, 365 00:15:43,040 --> 00:15:45,000 people like predictability, especially if you're a foreign 366 00:15:45,000 --> 00:15:46,120 government or you're a foreign business. 367 00:15:46,120 --> 00:15:49,160 You want predictability in order to plan your own future. 368 00:15:49,720 --> 00:15:52,440 And one thing that really freaks out the Chinese is that Trump is 369 00:15:52,440 --> 00:15:55,240 not predictable enough for them. And they are the masters or try 370 00:15:55,240 --> 00:15:56,840 to be the masters of predictability. 371 00:15:57,200 --> 00:16:01,080 I just wondered to what extent, you know, his personality, his 372 00:16:01,080 --> 00:16:04,280 mercurial personality, underpinned by the fact that you 373 00:16:04,280 --> 00:16:07,680 have an incredibly broad coalition of opinions around the 374 00:16:07,680 --> 00:16:11,280 White House, much more so than 2016, all the way from RFK 375 00:16:11,280 --> 00:16:15,320 junior to the kind of Marco Rubio, you know, pro pro-life, 376 00:16:15,600 --> 00:16:19,120 traditional, you know, America, power projectors, anti China, 377 00:16:19,240 --> 00:16:21,200 etcetera, etcetera. I mean, there's a vast coalition 378 00:16:21,200 --> 00:16:23,600 of people there and then you have one thing in common and 379 00:16:23,600 --> 00:16:27,160 that is their allegiance and feel to to Donald Trump, and 380 00:16:27,160 --> 00:16:29,280 that's different. Which is, yeah, which is the big 381 00:16:29,280 --> 00:16:31,120 sort of question mark over the next four years really, isn't 382 00:16:31,120 --> 00:16:33,720 it? It's because we understand that 383 00:16:33,720 --> 00:16:36,240 Trump has learnt his lessons from the from his first term, 384 00:16:36,440 --> 00:16:38,280 that the people around him, you know, they're going to be much 385 00:16:38,280 --> 00:16:41,120 more focused on his agenda and there won't be as many, sort of. 386 00:16:41,120 --> 00:16:42,920 More loyal, yeah. Individuals within the 387 00:16:42,920 --> 00:16:44,480 Republican Party speaking out against him. 388 00:16:44,480 --> 00:16:46,920 But there that is still a fragile coalition in many ways, 389 00:16:46,920 --> 00:16:48,440 Sure. And it's and it's figuring out 390 00:16:49,320 --> 00:16:51,560 where the breaks will come and where the fallouts will come. 391 00:16:51,560 --> 00:16:52,880 And we assume they they will happen. 392 00:16:53,400 --> 00:16:56,200 A lot of what we can expect in the next 4 years will be 393 00:16:56,200 --> 00:17:00,040 determined by the speech that he gives, you know, on Capitol Hill 394 00:17:00,040 --> 00:17:03,000 on Inauguration Day. And I still remembered the 395 00:17:03,000 --> 00:17:07,119 collective dropping of jaws and the intake of breath on the 396 00:17:07,119 --> 00:17:11,319 podium in 2016. But also, you know, everywhere 397 00:17:11,720 --> 00:17:14,760 when you talked about the carnage of America, carnage in 398 00:17:14,760 --> 00:17:17,359 America, carnage is not a word on anyone's mind. 399 00:17:17,359 --> 00:17:19,760 In 2016, the country did not look like carnage. 400 00:17:19,760 --> 00:17:21,880 And there were problems. There was crime, there was 401 00:17:21,880 --> 00:17:25,400 unemployment here and there, but it it didn't feel like carnage 402 00:17:25,400 --> 00:17:27,640 central. Nor does it at the moment, to be 403 00:17:27,640 --> 00:17:29,720 honest. It's divided, but it doesn't 404 00:17:29,720 --> 00:17:32,080 feel like carnage central. Do you think that he will repeat 405 00:17:32,520 --> 00:17:35,640 a line as abrasive as that, or will he try to show the gentler, 406 00:17:35,640 --> 00:17:37,960 kinder side of Donald Trump? Who's now? 407 00:17:37,960 --> 00:17:39,840 I've been thinking. He's got what he wanted and can 408 00:17:39,840 --> 00:17:42,560 afford to unite the nation. I think I've been thinking about 409 00:17:42,560 --> 00:17:43,600 this very thing. What? 410 00:17:43,600 --> 00:17:46,560 What tone will he take? Well, what do you think? 411 00:17:48,560 --> 00:17:52,440 Come on, predict the tone. You can do it. 412 00:17:53,560 --> 00:17:55,360 You can feel the soul of Trump you. 413 00:17:55,400 --> 00:17:58,280 Know. He's got he listens to you all 414 00:17:58,280 --> 00:18:00,480 the. Time I, I am, I think he won't 415 00:18:00,480 --> 00:18:05,240 be able to resist sort of carnage light, right. 416 00:18:05,320 --> 00:18:07,360 It's not carnage as you say and he can't point. 417 00:18:07,360 --> 00:18:10,200 He will try and point to carnage in the economy, but demonstrably 418 00:18:10,200 --> 00:18:12,600 the numbers do not point to that crime. 419 00:18:12,600 --> 00:18:16,200 Numbers that he really attached the carnage line to, again, do 420 00:18:16,200 --> 00:18:18,480 not point to that crime is. But he doesn't care about 421 00:18:18,480 --> 00:18:18,880 numbers. Does. 422 00:18:18,880 --> 00:18:21,560 He but he doesn't care about numbers and he has to stick with 423 00:18:21,560 --> 00:18:23,400 the narrative that won him the election. 424 00:18:23,720 --> 00:18:27,800 So but I think there is there is carnage around immigration, but 425 00:18:27,920 --> 00:18:29,400 isn't it? So I think he'll, I think he'll, 426 00:18:29,600 --> 00:18:31,520 I think he'll. But interestingly, when he won, 427 00:18:31,520 --> 00:18:32,840 there was a lot of talk of unity. 428 00:18:32,840 --> 00:18:34,560 You were there that night. He did start. 429 00:18:34,880 --> 00:18:38,720 There was talk of unity, which was the Trump the unifier is not 430 00:18:39,040 --> 00:18:41,240 not what we're used to. But I think he does feel that he 431 00:18:41,240 --> 00:18:45,160 has the power and the numbers and the swagger and the vibe 432 00:18:45,160 --> 00:18:47,640 around him that he can try and be this unifier. 433 00:18:48,040 --> 00:18:50,800 But if we if one thing we know about Trump is that he, you 434 00:18:50,800 --> 00:18:53,840 know, he likes publicity. He's an attention seeker. 435 00:18:53,840 --> 00:18:57,120 You know, we're in caps. Surely the thing that that that 436 00:18:57,120 --> 00:19:00,200 gets you most attention when everyone is expecting carnage in 437 00:19:00,200 --> 00:19:03,800 America from the podium is actually to say, you know, a 438 00:19:03,800 --> 00:19:05,600 kumbaya, you know, peace in our time. 439 00:19:05,840 --> 00:19:07,440 And that would have people's attention, right? 440 00:19:07,800 --> 00:19:08,800 Maybe that's what he's going to do. 441 00:19:08,800 --> 00:19:09,880 I don't know. Yeah, I mean. 442 00:19:09,960 --> 00:19:14,000 Maybe you would assume that if you if you go back to the the 443 00:19:14,000 --> 00:19:17,880 first inauguration speech, it was like it, it was two things. 444 00:19:17,880 --> 00:19:19,920 It was American carnage. There's this, there's this 445 00:19:19,920 --> 00:19:23,400 country where, you know, factories are rusting away. 446 00:19:23,640 --> 00:19:24,840 You know, people haven't got jobs. 447 00:19:24,840 --> 00:19:26,600 It's all depressing. And the other thing is that I'm 448 00:19:26,600 --> 00:19:29,600 finally going to bring government away from the from 449 00:19:29,600 --> 00:19:31,240 the elites in Washington back to you, the people. 450 00:19:31,240 --> 00:19:33,160 Those are the two messages. And overall it was quite 451 00:19:33,160 --> 00:19:34,520 negative. So you would assume it's going 452 00:19:34,520 --> 00:19:38,320 to be much more positive and upbeat. 453 00:19:38,320 --> 00:19:40,560 You know, this is Trump having won the victory. 454 00:19:40,680 --> 00:19:42,880 But again, we're trying to predict Trump. 455 00:19:42,880 --> 00:19:44,200 And as we've said, he is unpredictable. 456 00:19:44,200 --> 00:19:47,520 And one of the fascinating things I read about in Time 457 00:19:47,520 --> 00:19:50,200 magazine, where he was again made Time Person of the Year, 458 00:19:50,200 --> 00:19:52,680 which he would love on the front cover and stuff, was that when 459 00:19:52,680 --> 00:19:55,640 they spoke to him at Mar a Lago after the election, he was 460 00:19:55,640 --> 00:20:01,720 almost flown in a bit downbeat. Because two things 1 he loves 461 00:20:02,440 --> 00:20:05,320 campaigning and he loves fighting and he loves having 462 00:20:05,320 --> 00:20:08,520 something to fight against. And two, he knows that that is 463 00:20:08,520 --> 00:20:12,800 his last election campaign. So what what is this Trump? 464 00:20:12,800 --> 00:20:14,240 Now? This is a guy who if you know, 465 00:20:14,240 --> 00:20:16,640 he's won everything, but he loves fighting against people. 466 00:20:16,640 --> 00:20:18,440 And that's that's the interesting thing here, isn't 467 00:20:18,440 --> 00:20:20,320 it? If if he's any other politician 468 00:20:20,320 --> 00:20:21,240 would be like, well, this is great. 469 00:20:21,240 --> 00:20:22,760 I've won everything. Let's go and do loads of things. 470 00:20:22,920 --> 00:20:25,560 Trump no longer has, you know, everything about him has been 471 00:20:25,560 --> 00:20:26,840 about fighting against something. 472 00:20:26,840 --> 00:20:30,040 And now he if he's the victor, what, what does he stand for and 473 00:20:30,040 --> 00:20:31,400 what's he going? To do but he but he I think 474 00:20:31,400 --> 00:20:32,600 there still will be battles ahead. 475 00:20:32,600 --> 00:20:37,120 Don't forget they won the House, yes, but by a very slim majority 476 00:20:37,120 --> 00:20:39,920 and there's lots of infighting, forgive me, within the 477 00:20:40,360 --> 00:20:43,600 Republican House, Mike Johnson, his speaker isn't the most 478 00:20:43,600 --> 00:20:47,080 popular so I think there will be mini battles for. 479 00:20:47,080 --> 00:20:48,600 Sure. But also he knows he's got two 480 00:20:48,600 --> 00:20:50,360 years with his majority to get stuff done. 481 00:20:50,360 --> 00:20:53,440 And then in the midterms, unless they predictable, it'll be, you 482 00:20:53,560 --> 00:20:56,080 know, it'll be, it'll probably be over in terms of his majority 483 00:20:56,120 --> 00:20:57,240 because that's what tends to happen. 484 00:20:57,240 --> 00:20:59,880 And finally, we haven't talked about the Democrats at all, 485 00:21:00,480 --> 00:21:01,800 which is extraordinary in itself. 486 00:21:02,400 --> 00:21:03,440 What are they doing? Are they doing? 487 00:21:03,440 --> 00:21:06,080 Is every meeting of Democrats now a kind of session of self 488 00:21:06,080 --> 00:21:08,320 flagellation and Mayor corpus? What are they doing? 489 00:21:08,600 --> 00:21:10,840 There's lots of hand wringing. There's lots of navel gazing. 490 00:21:12,040 --> 00:21:13,960 But they've basically thrown up their hands in resignation, 491 00:21:13,960 --> 00:21:16,200 haven't they? And and a bit of, I think, 492 00:21:16,200 --> 00:21:18,120 subliminal anger. Bring us back to the beginning 493 00:21:18,120 --> 00:21:20,600 of what we just talked about. But they have for the moment, 494 00:21:20,600 --> 00:21:23,640 they're still very shocked. They're nursing their wounds. 495 00:21:23,920 --> 00:21:27,760 There's still a lot of anger about Biden and the and what 496 00:21:27,760 --> 00:21:30,640 happened, but I think they'll regroup. 497 00:21:30,760 --> 00:21:33,960 I mean, I, I was reading yesterday, you know, there's 498 00:21:33,960 --> 00:21:37,560 definitely less of a backlash. There was 100 or so that didn't 499 00:21:37,560 --> 00:21:40,000 come to the other the first Trump inauguration. 500 00:21:41,240 --> 00:21:44,280 The majority are there's a list of now about 10 who aren't. 501 00:21:44,680 --> 00:21:47,360 I think they'll fight their battles in their states. 502 00:21:47,360 --> 00:21:53,000 Seems to be the the the the the method rather than big public 503 00:21:53,000 --> 00:21:55,800 protests against him here. And of course, Biden, Kieran, in 504 00:21:55,800 --> 00:21:59,680 his, you know, valedictory speech at the end, said, we're 505 00:21:59,680 --> 00:22:02,240 becoming an oligarchy. And you could say, hang on a 506 00:22:02,240 --> 00:22:05,400 minute, it was ever thus, right? I mean, powerful people, 507 00:22:06,000 --> 00:22:08,280 billionaires around the presidency, there are plenty of 508 00:22:08,280 --> 00:22:09,960 billionaires who give money to the Democrats. 509 00:22:10,280 --> 00:22:12,360 But the difference, I guess, this time round is that they are 510 00:22:12,360 --> 00:22:16,120 more overt in the way that they are funding the president's, the 511 00:22:16,120 --> 00:22:17,880 president, not just the presidency. 512 00:22:18,280 --> 00:22:20,920 They're much more in the inner circle, much more openly so than 513 00:22:20,920 --> 00:22:23,400 they were before, you know, under Obama or Biden. 514 00:22:23,840 --> 00:22:25,800 Yeah. And I guess that sort of comes, 515 00:22:26,040 --> 00:22:29,000 I think that's what Biden was saying about the oligarchy is 516 00:22:29,000 --> 00:22:31,240 obviously a very important point and a worrying point for many 517 00:22:31,240 --> 00:22:33,240 people, You know, people like Elon Musk and others. 518 00:22:33,640 --> 00:22:36,000 And there are many more, you know, Peter Thiel, for example, 519 00:22:36,320 --> 00:22:37,920 sort of maneuvering around the White House. 520 00:22:37,920 --> 00:22:41,480 But you know, the Democrats also back in the day, you know, had 521 00:22:41,480 --> 00:22:43,280 Silicon Valley behind Obama, etcetera. 522 00:22:43,280 --> 00:22:46,880 You know, this, this flits, this flits conflict between the two. 523 00:22:46,880 --> 00:22:50,480 And I think that's the important thing to remember is that when 524 00:22:50,480 --> 00:22:52,480 we talk about that vibe shift in it feel like things are behind 525 00:22:52,480 --> 00:22:55,080 Trump. You know, whenever it comes to 526 00:22:55,080 --> 00:22:59,600 any election, there is always a reaction in in the media and 527 00:22:59,600 --> 00:23:01,800 amongst political parties in this country and elsewhere to 528 00:23:01,800 --> 00:23:03,880 say it's the end. You know, it's the end. 529 00:23:03,880 --> 00:23:06,080 How did they ever come back? And then you actually come back, 530 00:23:06,280 --> 00:23:08,880 you know, so the idea that the Democrats, they are definitely 531 00:23:08,880 --> 00:23:12,360 feeling completely, well, I mean, they're angry because of 532 00:23:12,360 --> 00:23:14,200 Biden hanging on. And there should have been a 533 00:23:14,200 --> 00:23:15,800 more open primary. And how do we let this all 534 00:23:15,800 --> 00:23:16,520 happen? Blah blah blah. 535 00:23:16,520 --> 00:23:18,440 Of course they will, but you know, the midterms are a moment 536 00:23:18,440 --> 00:23:19,680 and then in four years time there is no. 537 00:23:19,680 --> 00:23:20,800 Trouble. Two years ago, trouble was an 538 00:23:20,800 --> 00:23:22,120 outcast and then we said this so things. 539 00:23:22,240 --> 00:23:25,080 Things do change, and I guess so do you think that as a result of 540 00:23:25,080 --> 00:23:27,760 the majority he's got, the campaign he fought and what he 541 00:23:27,760 --> 00:23:31,120 wants to do to this country, the America that starts on 542 00:23:31,120 --> 00:23:34,600 Inauguration Day will be fundamentally and forever 543 00:23:34,600 --> 00:23:37,080 different to the America that everyone else had got used to, 544 00:23:37,560 --> 00:23:40,040 you know, since World War 2, effectively both in terms of 545 00:23:40,040 --> 00:23:43,000 domestic and foreign policy. I think it could be. 546 00:23:43,080 --> 00:23:45,800 It could indeed be. I think the key thing is that 547 00:23:46,640 --> 00:23:50,480 when we talk about Trump first, first term to this term is that 548 00:23:50,480 --> 00:23:53,160 he also had a Republican House and Senate last time and he 549 00:23:53,160 --> 00:23:56,000 didn't do the things as well as he could do in the first two 550 00:23:56,000 --> 00:23:58,320 years before the the blue wave in 2019. 551 00:23:58,440 --> 00:24:01,400 The key thing is, if it is going to be a fundamental sea change 552 00:24:01,600 --> 00:24:04,920 and it has concrete results in terms of this country and 553 00:24:04,920 --> 00:24:08,960 beyond, it's Trump trying to get those promises done much more 554 00:24:08,960 --> 00:24:11,000 efficiently. In his first year, yeah, 555 00:24:11,000 --> 00:24:12,760 there's. Let me ask you like this, Sean, 556 00:24:12,760 --> 00:24:15,160 is this the end of the Republic as we know it? 557 00:24:15,200 --> 00:24:17,440 No, I think I think that he will. 558 00:24:17,440 --> 00:24:19,640 I think that they'll there will be we keep coming back to the 559 00:24:19,640 --> 00:24:20,960 shock and awe. I think he will try and get 560 00:24:20,960 --> 00:24:23,280 things done quickly. We've seen the House Republicans 561 00:24:23,280 --> 00:24:26,920 say we're ready this time. You know, we've he he's got his 562 00:24:27,040 --> 00:24:30,000 people who are all much more subservient. 563 00:24:30,760 --> 00:24:34,920 I do think that one thing we can't calculate is, you know, 564 00:24:34,920 --> 00:24:38,640 when you're having chats on the phone with world leaders and 565 00:24:38,640 --> 00:24:41,640 Elon Musk is sitting beside you when he's on those call, I think 566 00:24:42,120 --> 00:24:45,520 we compare it to last time he came in, he made changes, but he 567 00:24:45,520 --> 00:24:47,200 found it hard. He didn't do as much as he said 568 00:24:47,200 --> 00:24:51,040 he was going to. The only thing we can't, we 569 00:24:51,040 --> 00:24:55,000 don't have any experience, there's no precedent is when you 570 00:24:55,000 --> 00:24:58,640 have got the Elon Musk of this world sitting beside you and 571 00:24:58,640 --> 00:25:03,800 having your ear and broadcasting on Twitter and being as 572 00:25:03,800 --> 00:25:05,080 influential. Sorry. 573 00:25:05,480 --> 00:25:09,840 And being as influential, I, I think that's an unknown quantity 574 00:25:10,040 --> 00:25:12,600 that I think none of us can apply on because we haven't been 575 00:25:12,600 --> 00:25:14,520 here before. And how that will shape the 576 00:25:14,520 --> 00:25:18,320 presidency. I that's to me the kind of 577 00:25:18,320 --> 00:25:21,000 $1,000,000 question. Siobhan and Kieran, thank you 578 00:25:21,000 --> 00:25:23,600 very much to both of you. That's it from the forecast here 579 00:25:23,600 --> 00:25:26,480 in Washington, DC in inauguration week. 580 00:25:26,880 --> 00:25:28,880 All I've got to say to you is buckle up. 581 00:25:28,920 --> 00:25:29,800 It's going to get interesting.