1 00:00:00,040 --> 00:00:02,480 Hello and welcome to this special live edition of The 2 00:00:02,480 --> 00:00:05,080 Forecast after Rachel Reid's spring statement. 3 00:00:05,120 --> 00:00:07,920 And it's painful medicine for an ailing economy. 4 00:00:08,119 --> 00:00:10,640 Growth this year is halved. Inflation will tick up. 5 00:00:10,920 --> 00:00:14,560 There's £5 billion of welfare cuts targeted at disability 6 00:00:14,560 --> 00:00:17,320 payments affecting over 3 million people. 7 00:00:17,560 --> 00:00:20,640 The impact assessment says 1/4 of a million people will be 8 00:00:20,640 --> 00:00:24,400 pushed into relative poverty, including 50,000 children. 9 00:00:24,680 --> 00:00:27,240 And it's almost as painful for Labour MPs who didn't come into 10 00:00:27,240 --> 00:00:29,560 politics to take money from poor people. 11 00:00:29,960 --> 00:00:33,000 But the world has changed, says the government, refusing to say 12 00:00:33,000 --> 00:00:36,400 exactly why, even though it is Trump who has forced defense 13 00:00:36,400 --> 00:00:39,320 spending to rise and started a global trade war. 14 00:00:39,520 --> 00:00:42,160 To analyze what's happened, I'm joined from Leeds by our 15 00:00:42,160 --> 00:00:45,800 economics correspondent Helia Ebrahimi and from Westminster by 16 00:00:45,800 --> 00:00:48,200 our senior political correspondent Paul McNamara, 17 00:00:48,200 --> 00:00:50,800 who's just come out of Rachel Reeves press conference. 18 00:00:50,840 --> 00:00:56,240 Helia, I mean, a whole world of pain in the cuts, but for what? 19 00:00:56,240 --> 00:00:57,960 What? What has she done this for? 20 00:00:58,160 --> 00:01:02,320 Is it credibility? I mean, it's all about being the 21 00:01:02,320 --> 00:01:05,680 Iron Chancellor. She's got her fiscal rules and 22 00:01:05,680 --> 00:01:09,760 they are non negotiable. She wants to make sure that she 23 00:01:09,760 --> 00:01:12,520 absolutely sticks to those rules. 24 00:01:12,520 --> 00:01:16,720 Today was a fiscal patchwork. She, you know, they were, they 25 00:01:16,720 --> 00:01:22,560 had 9.9 billion of headroom in autumn that disappeared, not 26 00:01:22,560 --> 00:01:25,600 just disappeared, but they went 4 billion into deficit. 27 00:01:25,880 --> 00:01:30,400 And today she outlined that she would take the political pain in 28 00:01:30,400 --> 00:01:32,720 order to make sure that she stays on course. 29 00:01:33,040 --> 00:01:37,480 But don't forget, Krish, that this is a tiny, tiny bit of 30 00:01:37,480 --> 00:01:42,840 headroom for a huge amount of different risk, you know, and I 31 00:01:42,840 --> 00:01:46,720 think that's worth remembering. So yes, the markets are calm. 32 00:01:46,720 --> 00:01:49,160 There was a bit of a spike in the gilt market, but they seem 33 00:01:49,160 --> 00:01:52,200 to have calmed down. But there is a lot of pain still 34 00:01:52,200 --> 00:01:54,200 to come. Of the reports that go along 35 00:01:54,240 --> 00:01:58,360 this from the Office of Budget Responsibility say that it could 36 00:01:58,360 --> 00:02:02,520 all be wiped out very quickly and very easily if Donald Trump 37 00:02:02,520 --> 00:02:05,280 sparks his trade war, if the global tariffs kick in. 38 00:02:05,280 --> 00:02:07,560 We'll, we'll analyze all of that in a moment. 39 00:02:07,560 --> 00:02:11,960 But, but Paul, I mean this, the pain which is being felt in 40 00:02:12,200 --> 00:02:17,400 welfare cuts is, I'm guessing, reflected in the pain at 41 00:02:17,400 --> 00:02:22,040 Westminster amongst Labour MPs. Yeah, I think you can always 42 00:02:22,080 --> 00:02:25,960 gauge just how miserable people are by how quickly they respond 43 00:02:25,960 --> 00:02:28,960 to your text messages or how quickly your inbox is filling 44 00:02:28,960 --> 00:02:30,760 up. They're responding very quickly 45 00:02:30,760 --> 00:02:33,760 today. There are a lot of messages when 46 00:02:33,760 --> 00:02:36,000 these welfare cuts get to a vote in front of the House. 47 00:02:36,200 --> 00:02:39,280 This is not going to be a nice experience for the government. 48 00:02:39,280 --> 00:02:41,520 Now, look, truth is, they've got a whopping great big majority. 49 00:02:41,640 --> 00:02:43,560 They don't really, really need to worry about that. 50 00:02:43,680 --> 00:02:47,680 But red on red attacks are not going to be a great look for the 51 00:02:47,680 --> 00:02:49,920 next couple of months, and that's what you can expect. 52 00:02:50,040 --> 00:02:52,520 I'm I'm guessing a lot of them are wondering if this is what 53 00:02:52,520 --> 00:02:55,320 they came into politics for. Oh my goodness. 54 00:02:55,320 --> 00:02:58,640 Look, so firstly, you know, you get lots of text messages from 55 00:02:58,640 --> 00:03:00,880 people, backbenchers saying, yeah, this is what I think, 56 00:03:00,920 --> 00:03:02,880 don't use it on the record. But actually now we're just 57 00:03:02,880 --> 00:03:05,560 getting statements that come out posted to Twitter. 58 00:03:05,560 --> 00:03:10,240 So this one, Kim Johnson, the first, she's an MP from 59 00:03:10,240 --> 00:03:12,960 Liverpool. The very first line, Austerity 60 00:03:12,960 --> 00:03:16,480 2.0 is here. That is very definitely not the 61 00:03:16,480 --> 00:03:18,520 line that number 11 wants to be selling. 62 00:03:18,720 --> 00:03:21,160 And then this one here who really caught me. 63 00:03:21,440 --> 00:03:25,840 This assault on disabled people and those in need of support is 64 00:03:25,840 --> 00:03:28,800 nothing short of sadistically cruel. 65 00:03:29,000 --> 00:03:32,000 That's one of their own MPs. Right. 66 00:03:32,000 --> 00:03:34,360 Hell yeah. So to the question of whether 67 00:03:34,360 --> 00:03:39,120 this is austerity or not, I mean, how how does this compare 68 00:03:39,520 --> 00:03:45,160 to where we were in the Cameron, Osborne years of austerity? 69 00:03:45,160 --> 00:03:46,840 And and can we say it is or it isn't? 70 00:03:48,240 --> 00:03:51,840 Well, I think you have to separate all the protected 71 00:03:51,840 --> 00:03:55,960 departments from the unprotected departments and overall I think 72 00:03:56,440 --> 00:04:00,000 it's not the same as 2008. What we're talking about is 73 00:04:00,000 --> 00:04:03,880 cutting about 3 to £4 billion from department spending. 74 00:04:03,880 --> 00:04:07,240 That's, you know, far cry from what happened in the Osborne 75 00:04:07,240 --> 00:04:13,560 year in 2010, but it's less generous than we thought back in 76 00:04:13,560 --> 00:04:16,000 autumn. And today the government said 77 00:04:16,000 --> 00:04:20,120 look, we're, we're only cutting spending, you know, from 1.3% 78 00:04:20,120 --> 00:04:23,440 for the overall envelope down to 1.2%. 79 00:04:23,440 --> 00:04:25,000 Don't worry, don't worry, don't worry. 80 00:04:25,360 --> 00:04:27,760 And of course if you're in defence, if you're in the NHS, 81 00:04:28,040 --> 00:04:31,120 sure you might not worry. But if you are in the court 82 00:04:31,120 --> 00:04:34,600 system, if you are the Home Office where you have had 83 00:04:34,600 --> 00:04:39,400 sustained kind of cutbacks and sustained problems with your 84 00:04:39,400 --> 00:04:44,040 funding packages over a decade and a half, really then I think 85 00:04:44,040 --> 00:04:47,680 anything less than the generosity that was promised, 86 00:04:47,680 --> 00:04:51,200 where they thought they're going to give this big fiscal boost, 87 00:04:51,200 --> 00:04:53,960 there's, you know, basically lots of cash in the first two 88 00:04:53,960 --> 00:04:56,280 years. Inflation has eaten into a bit 89 00:04:56,280 --> 00:05:00,000 of that and now it's going to be even less generous than they 90 00:05:00,000 --> 00:05:03,040 thought. So in real terms, those 91 00:05:03,040 --> 00:05:07,840 unprotected departments, the IFS says face cuts of about, you 92 00:05:07,840 --> 00:05:12,240 know, you know, real terms, it's only rises of 0.8%. 93 00:05:12,240 --> 00:05:15,440 So that's a real term cut. So it's not austerity as we knew 94 00:05:15,440 --> 00:05:17,720 it, but I mean, the government has been sticking to this line 95 00:05:17,720 --> 00:05:21,680 since well before the election. I've grilled Rachel Rees and 96 00:05:21,680 --> 00:05:23,520 Keir Starmer about this so many times. 97 00:05:24,280 --> 00:05:28,080 And, and the chief secretary to the Treasury, Darren Jones, that 98 00:05:28,480 --> 00:05:32,000 they, they keep saying, you know, overall spending is up and 99 00:05:32,000 --> 00:05:35,240 it continues to rise, But that's because there are some 100 00:05:35,240 --> 00:05:36,720 departments getting more than others. 101 00:05:36,720 --> 00:05:39,480 And in some departments, it's going to feel very much like a 102 00:05:39,480 --> 00:05:42,960 cut. Look, their whole shtick is we, 103 00:05:42,960 --> 00:05:46,960 we came into government and what we announced was a funding 104 00:05:46,960 --> 00:05:51,120 package that was so much more generous than what the Tories 105 00:05:51,120 --> 00:05:54,680 had in mind. And, and that is true, they had, 106 00:05:54,680 --> 00:05:58,200 they increased spending, you know, in the last year by £50 107 00:05:58,200 --> 00:06:01,320 billion. So it is more generous. 108 00:06:01,560 --> 00:06:04,520 What's happening now is that they are whining, finding some 109 00:06:04,520 --> 00:06:07,120 of that down. Now people like the Resolution 110 00:06:07,120 --> 00:06:10,160 Foundation say, hang on a moment, You said you wanted to 111 00:06:10,400 --> 00:06:13,840 rebuild public services. You say that you want to get 112 00:06:13,840 --> 00:06:17,480 people back into work. And you've done all of these 113 00:06:17,480 --> 00:06:22,440 cuts really just to make the maths work, just to fall back 114 00:06:22,440 --> 00:06:25,440 into your fiscal headroom. And, you know, there's lots of 115 00:06:25,440 --> 00:06:30,000 suspicion that she had fiscal headroom of, you know, £9.9 116 00:06:30,000 --> 00:06:35,800 billion back in autumn and all of the policy measures equal, 117 00:06:35,880 --> 00:06:38,640 you know, give her that exact same number again. 118 00:06:38,640 --> 00:06:42,480 So or, you know, to Paul's point that, you know, all of these 119 00:06:42,480 --> 00:06:46,560 welfare cuts have political ramifications, not to mention 120 00:06:46,560 --> 00:06:51,160 the real world ramifications. You know, the complaint is it's 121 00:06:51,160 --> 00:06:54,880 being rushed through, and it's being rushed through only to 122 00:06:54,880 --> 00:06:59,800 meet the Treasury's kind of wonk desire to make the numbers work. 123 00:06:59,800 --> 00:07:01,040 Yeah. I mean, Paul, that the argument 124 00:07:01,040 --> 00:07:03,520 is going to be that they they say that this is all about 125 00:07:03,520 --> 00:07:06,800 getting people back into work and that this is a philosophical 126 00:07:06,960 --> 00:07:10,080 change that they had been working on for months before the 127 00:07:10,360 --> 00:07:12,920 election. But but my goodness, isn't this 128 00:07:12,920 --> 00:07:17,280 an astonishing coincidence that the numbers end up the same in 129 00:07:17,280 --> 00:07:19,560 terms of sort of the headroom that the money that they got to 130 00:07:19,560 --> 00:07:21,760 play with at the end? And that quite that. 131 00:07:21,760 --> 00:07:24,000 That leaves a big question mark over whether this is really 132 00:07:24,000 --> 00:07:29,680 driven by the numbers or some, you know, deep seated idea or 133 00:07:29,680 --> 00:07:31,800 philosophy around getting people back into work. 134 00:07:33,040 --> 00:07:37,120 No, I think Rachael has announced her her stringent 135 00:07:37,120 --> 00:07:41,320 fiscal rules, you know, ages ago come hell or high water. 136 00:07:41,440 --> 00:07:43,760 She is not moving away from them. 137 00:07:43,800 --> 00:07:46,080 Of course they want to get people back to work. 138 00:07:46,240 --> 00:07:48,120 Well they were given a little bit of cover actually on that 139 00:07:48,120 --> 00:07:51,920 whole thing of austerity. 2 point O Paul Johnson, the old 140 00:07:51,920 --> 00:07:56,600 boss of the IFS turn around last last yesterday, put out this. 141 00:07:56,720 --> 00:07:58,240 Not old boss. Yeah, Paul. 142 00:07:59,120 --> 00:08:00,600 Oh, not old boss. Yeah, so God, I've already. 143 00:08:00,600 --> 00:08:01,720 I've already got him out the door. 144 00:08:01,840 --> 00:08:05,240 My sincerest apologies both Elliot and Paul Johnson, but 145 00:08:05,240 --> 00:08:07,440 like, you know, he puts out this graph saying look, it's not, 146 00:08:07,600 --> 00:08:10,640 there's nothing like austerity that gave Labour a good bit of 147 00:08:10,640 --> 00:08:12,480 cover. Darren Jones first sector to 148 00:08:12,480 --> 00:08:16,080 Treasury when he was in Downing St. yesterday, bringing all the 149 00:08:16,080 --> 00:08:17,960 members of government saying look, this is what we've got 150 00:08:17,960 --> 00:08:19,720 planned. First of all, he didn't mention 151 00:08:19,800 --> 00:08:22,520 the extra half a billion pounds worth of cuts to welfare that 152 00:08:22,520 --> 00:08:24,600 came overnight. So quite a few people in the 153 00:08:24,600 --> 00:08:26,600 government payroll are annoyed about that. 154 00:08:26,760 --> 00:08:29,280 But he was making the point it's not austerity 2.0. 155 00:08:29,520 --> 00:08:32,720 The truth is though, you can bang on about that all you want. 156 00:08:33,039 --> 00:08:36,400 If local MPs are getting people turning up to their surgery 157 00:08:36,400 --> 00:08:39,600 saying wait a second, you've cut all of my benefits, I am now 158 00:08:39,720 --> 00:08:42,840 significantly worse off and there will be vast amounts of 159 00:08:42,840 --> 00:08:44,560 people who are significantly worse off. 160 00:08:44,800 --> 00:08:48,040 It doesn't matter the messaging, it's what people really feel. 161 00:08:48,080 --> 00:08:50,160 Yeah, and what we got since the statements in the House of 162 00:08:50,160 --> 00:08:54,800 Commons, Paul, is the DWP impact assessment, which has some very 163 00:08:54,800 --> 00:08:56,360 stark numbers. I mean, you look at the and you 164 00:08:56,360 --> 00:09:00,360 wonder how they managed to go ahead with a policy that results 165 00:09:00,360 --> 00:09:04,000 in 250,000 more people being pushed into relative poverty, 166 00:09:04,120 --> 00:09:05,960 50,000 of which will be children. 167 00:09:05,960 --> 00:09:09,480 So that is that is an increase in child poverty as a result of 168 00:09:09,960 --> 00:09:12,880 Labour policies that. Now Rachel Rees was just asked 169 00:09:12,880 --> 00:09:14,400 about this in a press conference. 170 00:09:14,600 --> 00:09:17,920 Has she got an answer? Yeah, I'll, I'll, I'll, I'll do, 171 00:09:17,920 --> 00:09:20,360 I'll do the bit of balance here. I'll play the role of labour. 172 00:09:20,360 --> 00:09:22,320 They're lying. And you can expect to hear 173 00:09:22,320 --> 00:09:25,280 they've been trotted out time and time again over the next 174 00:09:25,280 --> 00:09:27,680 couple of months. Those figures, they Labour turn 175 00:09:27,680 --> 00:09:30,640 around and say actually look, but what we did do is we said 176 00:09:30,640 --> 00:09:33,920 that we put in a billion pound of support to get people into it 177 00:09:34,120 --> 00:09:38,240 and none of these are but. By the way, that that that, that 178 00:09:38,240 --> 00:09:41,200 billion pounds that they're, they're basically adding a 179 00:09:41,200 --> 00:09:44,680 billion pounds for coaches. They got a bit of a wrap on the 180 00:09:44,680 --> 00:09:48,640 knuckles from the OBR this afternoon because the OBR, who 181 00:09:48,640 --> 00:09:52,160 obviously Labour have lauded, much to their chagrin, because 182 00:09:52,160 --> 00:09:54,280 they now keep being told off by the OBR. 183 00:09:54,600 --> 00:09:58,000 But they were saying there's no evidence, there's no detail of 184 00:09:58,000 --> 00:10:00,760 all of these coaches. So yeah, they've they've said 185 00:10:00,760 --> 00:10:04,160 they're going to add these a billion pounds to bring coaches 186 00:10:04,160 --> 00:10:08,360 into the world to, you know, job centres to bring people back 187 00:10:08,360 --> 00:10:12,440 into employment. But actually that doesn't yet 188 00:10:12,440 --> 00:10:15,760 seem to be much detail about it. I love this. 189 00:10:15,760 --> 00:10:18,560 It's all in the messaging earlier the OBR say that and 190 00:10:18,560 --> 00:10:21,760 then Labour use it in terror and say Oh no actually, but OBR 191 00:10:21,760 --> 00:10:24,520 haven't been able to assess the impact of that billion pounds. 192 00:10:24,520 --> 00:10:27,560 So really people are probably going to be fine. 193 00:10:27,720 --> 00:10:31,960 But actually on the stuff that we do have, the things that we 194 00:10:31,960 --> 00:10:34,040 do have numbers for, the things that they have been able to run 195 00:10:34,040 --> 00:10:37,760 assessments for, we've got quarter of a million people, 196 00:10:37,960 --> 00:10:42,000 additional people in in relative poverty, including 50,000 kids, 197 00:10:42,240 --> 00:10:46,720 3.2 million people will be worse off. 198 00:10:46,960 --> 00:10:49,360 Those are those are tough numbers to to swallow. 199 00:10:49,360 --> 00:10:54,760 So their messages of those 250,000 people, some may end up 200 00:10:55,000 --> 00:10:57,560 not being in relative poverty because they might go back to 201 00:10:57,560 --> 00:11:00,160 work. But this is all amorphous, you 202 00:11:00,160 --> 00:11:03,480 know, unworked out and a bit of a guess. 203 00:11:03,680 --> 00:11:06,640 And they are, they are quite clearly not saying that we'll 204 00:11:06,640 --> 00:11:08,320 wipe it out. They are admitting that there 205 00:11:08,320 --> 00:11:12,240 will be people no matter how many we end up with being pushed 206 00:11:12,240 --> 00:11:13,280 more into poverty. But. 207 00:11:13,520 --> 00:11:15,040 Which is exactly what is an ambiguity. 208 00:11:17,480 --> 00:11:20,880 There is a there is an economic problem that is going on that 209 00:11:20,880 --> 00:11:23,400 underpins this. I mean, forget about Rachel 210 00:11:23,400 --> 00:11:27,480 Reed's trying to make sure that she meets her kind of fiscal 211 00:11:27,480 --> 00:11:29,960 rules. We have a problem with 212 00:11:29,960 --> 00:11:33,400 inactivity in this country. It was something that economies 213 00:11:33,400 --> 00:11:38,200 around the world faced but have seemed to recover from after 214 00:11:38,200 --> 00:11:40,480 COVID. We haven't in this country. 215 00:11:40,480 --> 00:11:44,880 And the numbers are quite stark. You know you've got 2.8 million 216 00:11:45,120 --> 00:11:49,320 people who are long term sick. You know that's a third of all 217 00:11:49,320 --> 00:11:54,680 people who are inactive. And without people re entering 218 00:11:54,680 --> 00:11:57,960 the labor market, all of our issues around growth, around 219 00:11:57,960 --> 00:12:00,160 productivity are not really going to be fixed. 220 00:12:00,160 --> 00:12:03,560 And in terms of the cost, if I just talk to you about that, 221 00:12:03,560 --> 00:12:07,640 back in 2010 it cost £28 billion. 222 00:12:07,880 --> 00:12:11,040 Before COVID it cost £37 billion. 223 00:12:11,320 --> 00:12:14,560 Currently for that health segment of Universal Credit, 224 00:12:14,560 --> 00:12:19,120 we're paying almost £50 billion. So you can see that there is a a 225 00:12:19,920 --> 00:12:23,480 problem that needs to be solved. I think everyone is on board 226 00:12:23,480 --> 00:12:26,400 with that. Everyone accepts that we need 227 00:12:26,400 --> 00:12:29,400 reform in the welfare market. I mean it's simply not 228 00:12:29,400 --> 00:12:34,080 sustainable long term because if the new claimant count continues 229 00:12:34,080 --> 00:12:39,320 at the same pace then it's going to dwarf all of our departmental 230 00:12:39,320 --> 00:12:42,320 spending and all of our budget will be eaten up by it. 231 00:12:42,560 --> 00:12:46,280 But it's how the government want to go ahead ahead and get 232 00:12:46,280 --> 00:12:47,920 across. And if you talk to people from, 233 00:12:48,520 --> 00:12:51,920 you know, Resolution Foundation for example, they say this is 234 00:12:51,920 --> 00:12:53,880 all being rushed through. Look at the personal 235 00:12:53,880 --> 00:12:57,000 independence payments. That's not even work dependent 236 00:12:57,320 --> 00:13:01,160 and you've got a whole lot of cuts that just mean that people 237 00:13:01,160 --> 00:13:04,080 will not qualify. I think 800,000 people will now 238 00:13:04,080 --> 00:13:06,400 not qualify for those pit payments. 239 00:13:06,760 --> 00:13:10,040 That's not anything to do with getting people back into the 240 00:13:10,040 --> 00:13:12,040 labour market, but. It's it's just that rush. 241 00:13:12,040 --> 00:13:15,440 I think that has got a political impact that they, they haven't 242 00:13:15,440 --> 00:13:19,360 perhaps foreseen because what you would normally do, I think 243 00:13:19,360 --> 00:13:22,160 around, around quite a big reform such as this, because 244 00:13:22,160 --> 00:13:24,360 after all, what they've, what they've sort of done through the 245 00:13:24,360 --> 00:13:28,560 back door is reintroduce this idea of deserving and 246 00:13:28,560 --> 00:13:31,960 undeserving, you know, welfare recipients. 247 00:13:31,960 --> 00:13:34,280 They are basically suggesting there are a load of people who 248 00:13:34,280 --> 00:13:36,560 are getting these welfare payments who shouldn't be 249 00:13:36,560 --> 00:13:38,360 getting them. Now they're dressing that up as 250 00:13:38,360 --> 00:13:40,360 saying we don't want to write people off. 251 00:13:40,360 --> 00:13:42,480 We don't, we know we don't want to, we don't want to sort of, 252 00:13:42,920 --> 00:13:46,680 you know, sort of push people onto a, a scrap heap under which 253 00:13:46,680 --> 00:13:48,880 they will never work. But they but the sort of the 254 00:13:48,880 --> 00:13:51,960 coded messages, they don't really deserve these payments. 255 00:13:51,960 --> 00:13:55,120 And that's why we're stopping them to get the public to a 256 00:13:55,120 --> 00:13:59,000 place where they will agree with that normally would take quite a 257 00:13:59,000 --> 00:14:00,440 long time. And they haven't really Have you 258 00:14:00,440 --> 00:14:02,880 done that job of work politically, have they, Paul? 259 00:14:03,680 --> 00:14:08,080 There so much of this has been rushed even in the last 48 hours 260 00:14:08,280 --> 00:14:11,640 to try and get. So for those who who don't know. 261 00:14:11,640 --> 00:14:15,080 So last last week a holiday welfare reforms renounce was 262 00:14:15,080 --> 00:14:18,400 meant to save £5 billion. Turns out they're not going to 263 00:14:18,400 --> 00:14:21,280 save £5 billion, they might save about 2.9 billion. 264 00:14:21,280 --> 00:14:26,280 Well, now all of a sudden the Treasury had to find an extra 1 265 00:14:26,280 --> 00:14:30,920 1/2, two £2 billion. So overnight we get 5500 million 266 00:14:31,240 --> 00:14:33,600 more in cuts to the welfare bill. 267 00:14:33,680 --> 00:14:37,760 That's happened at lightspeed. Not even the welfare cuts the 268 00:14:38,160 --> 00:14:42,440 DWP has been working to for ages, The 500 million we've seen 269 00:14:42,640 --> 00:14:44,520 just overnight. Then there were more cuts that 270 00:14:44,520 --> 00:14:47,800 were had to be found. So all the legwork that you 271 00:14:47,800 --> 00:14:50,000 would need to do, bringing people on a journey with you, 272 00:14:50,000 --> 00:14:53,240 bringing your backbenches on a journey with you, they haven't 273 00:14:53,240 --> 00:14:55,520 been able to do whatsoever. Heavier. 274 00:14:55,520 --> 00:14:57,360 Let's talk a little bit about why we're in this mess. 275 00:14:57,360 --> 00:15:01,000 I mean, growth cut from 2% to 1%. 276 00:15:01,280 --> 00:15:03,960 The Chancellor talking about the world is changing but not 277 00:15:03,960 --> 00:15:06,480 spelling it out. Why nobody's actually nailing 278 00:15:06,680 --> 00:15:09,560 Donald Trump for any of the changes that he's forced on 279 00:15:09,760 --> 00:15:12,440 Britain, you know, which is increased defence spending. 280 00:15:12,440 --> 00:15:15,280 That's a whole load of money away from the poorest people in 281 00:15:15,280 --> 00:15:20,120 the world in the development budget into defence and the, you 282 00:15:20,120 --> 00:15:23,440 know, the start of a global trade war, which could get 283 00:15:23,440 --> 00:15:26,480 worse. So it's what Why are we in this 284 00:15:26,560 --> 00:15:31,960 mess, for a start this year? And what does the uncertainty, 285 00:15:31,960 --> 00:15:35,640 ongoing uncertainty, around Trump mean for the next few 286 00:15:35,640 --> 00:15:39,720 months and next year? First of all, to Why are we in 287 00:15:39,720 --> 00:15:42,680 this mess? Why did her headroom disappear? 288 00:15:42,680 --> 00:15:45,080 Why did it vanish? Well, it disappeared because 289 00:15:45,080 --> 00:15:50,280 borrowing costs went up and that is to a large degree outside of 290 00:15:50,280 --> 00:15:53,840 the chances, outside of the government's control, driven by 291 00:15:53,840 --> 00:16:00,120 what happened with the US, but also now latterly because of the 292 00:16:00,120 --> 00:16:04,040 bond markets, understanding that Europe will need to spend so 293 00:16:04,040 --> 00:16:06,960 much more on defence. Now today the Chancellor was 294 00:16:07,240 --> 00:16:12,160 presenting defence as a kind of platform for industrial 295 00:16:12,160 --> 00:16:15,080 renaissance. But when the bond market looks 296 00:16:15,080 --> 00:16:18,000 at it, they think, hang on a moment, you are going to need to 297 00:16:18,000 --> 00:16:20,280 borrow a hell of a lot more money Europe. 298 00:16:20,720 --> 00:16:25,440 And therefore it adds to the cost of borrowing for European 299 00:16:25,440 --> 00:16:28,600 countries, including the UK. But a lot of that is driven by 300 00:16:28,600 --> 00:16:34,160 the USI think to your opening, to your opening remarks, Krish, 301 00:16:34,880 --> 00:16:37,240 you know, this is all on a coin toss. 302 00:16:37,280 --> 00:16:42,400 That's what the OBR said. This whole forecast is about 54% 303 00:16:42,400 --> 00:16:45,960 chance of actually surviving contact with oxygen. 304 00:16:45,960 --> 00:16:49,480 I mean, that is extraordinary. You know, you've got this, as I 305 00:16:49,480 --> 00:16:53,040 was saying, this tiny incy wincy bit of headroom. 306 00:16:53,280 --> 00:16:57,400 You know, it's really waffle thin and you've got huge amounts 307 00:16:57,400 --> 00:17:01,680 of uncertainty and that huge amount of uncertainty is because 308 00:17:01,680 --> 00:17:05,079 of trade. And that could all come to a 309 00:17:05,079 --> 00:17:08,160 head next week. I mean, literally one week from 310 00:17:08,160 --> 00:17:11,920 now, all of this might be completely irrelevant if we 311 00:17:11,920 --> 00:17:15,720 have, yeah, tariffs day. You know, we'll, if, if, if 312 00:17:16,319 --> 00:17:21,040 Donald Trump up ends the global economy, if we, the UK doesn't 313 00:17:21,040 --> 00:17:24,599 necessarily get this deal that we think we're going to get by 314 00:17:24,599 --> 00:17:29,040 giving, you know, tax relief to the likes of Meta and Google, 315 00:17:29,760 --> 00:17:34,160 then then it's going to spell real problems for the UK economy 316 00:17:34,160 --> 00:17:37,480 and the global economy. And, and the OBR are saying 317 00:17:37,480 --> 00:17:39,680 there's a huge chance that will happen. 318 00:17:39,680 --> 00:17:43,360 But it's not just that, it's also productivity. 319 00:17:43,360 --> 00:17:46,120 We have an issue. It's a kind of nerdy thing to 320 00:17:46,120 --> 00:17:50,920 talk about, but basically economists have struggled to 321 00:17:51,040 --> 00:17:55,120 describe why the UK is no longer as productive. 322 00:17:55,400 --> 00:17:59,200 And the OBR has been way more optimistic than other 323 00:17:59,200 --> 00:18:01,840 economists. And now they're saying, look, if 324 00:18:01,840 --> 00:18:05,400 productivity doesn't recover, if we don't get back, not just to, 325 00:18:05,680 --> 00:18:08,840 you know, we're not talking about the, you know, house in 326 00:18:08,840 --> 00:18:12,520 days of the last Labour government into 2007. 327 00:18:12,520 --> 00:18:16,440 I'm talking about just a 2010. We don't get back to that. 328 00:18:16,720 --> 00:18:18,440 Then we have another real problem. 329 00:18:18,440 --> 00:18:22,120 And, and, and so in a way, yes, she's managed to get through 330 00:18:22,120 --> 00:18:25,760 today. She, she, she's, you know, the 331 00:18:25,760 --> 00:18:29,080 chancellor's great at fighting. She's great at saying I am 332 00:18:29,080 --> 00:18:31,800 absolutely determined. I've made all the right 333 00:18:31,800 --> 00:18:33,840 decisions. And she, she believes that 334 00:18:33,840 --> 00:18:35,720 that's what she says. She says everything that 335 00:18:35,720 --> 00:18:39,200 happened in autumn, despite what all these businesses say about 336 00:18:39,200 --> 00:18:40,840 Nick's, everything I did was right. 337 00:18:41,760 --> 00:18:45,800 But actually a lot of the hard work is only going to start now. 338 00:18:45,840 --> 00:18:46,120 Yes. And. 339 00:18:46,120 --> 00:18:48,480 We're going to spend the next six months speculating about 340 00:18:48,480 --> 00:18:52,400 which taxes she's going to have to raise in the autumn or which 341 00:18:52,400 --> 00:18:55,600 spending cuts are going to have to be made as well. 342 00:18:55,600 --> 00:18:59,000 And, and, and that again, Paul seems to be an, I mean, quite 343 00:18:59,000 --> 00:19:02,920 striking failure of today that it hasn't hasn't stopped or 344 00:19:02,920 --> 00:19:05,280 scotched anything. It is actually, if anything 345 00:19:05,280 --> 00:19:08,600 fired the starting gun on the next round of debates. 346 00:19:08,720 --> 00:19:11,120 And that's not the press being troublemaking. 347 00:19:11,280 --> 00:19:13,400 That's that's just looking at the economic reality. 348 00:19:14,400 --> 00:19:17,520 Oh, yeah, Like I sat there in the chamber, which was going 349 00:19:17,520 --> 00:19:20,560 through everything and you talk about the numbers, Helia 350 00:19:20,560 --> 00:19:22,720 bringing up their excellent Monty Python reference for the 351 00:19:22,720 --> 00:19:28,120 Waffa Thin head headroom. You know, there is there is no 352 00:19:28,120 --> 00:19:31,640 way that we're not going to be spending the next six months 353 00:19:31,800 --> 00:19:34,000 talking about what she's going to have to do when it comes to 354 00:19:34,080 --> 00:19:36,640 an actual budget. And in fact, you know, there was 355 00:19:36,640 --> 00:19:40,200 a briefing afterwards with, with Rachel Reeves officials where 356 00:19:40,200 --> 00:19:44,520 we're all going through this quite hearty document and like 357 00:19:44,520 --> 00:19:47,040 picking out all the things that the OBR that basically picks 358 00:19:47,040 --> 00:19:49,800 apart her numbers and goes, OK, well, if there's trade war with 359 00:19:49,800 --> 00:19:52,160 Donald Trump, your surplus has gone. 360 00:19:52,360 --> 00:19:54,840 OK, well, productivity falls, everything goes. 361 00:19:55,040 --> 00:19:57,280 And like just sort of nailed down everything because it's 362 00:19:57,280 --> 00:20:00,480 very, very unlikely that we're going to get to her actual 363 00:20:00,480 --> 00:20:02,560 budget. And, and all of this is, is 364 00:20:02,560 --> 00:20:04,080 going to be intact. So you're sitting there 365 00:20:04,080 --> 00:20:07,960 listening to all of this. My goodness, there is going to 366 00:20:07,960 --> 00:20:10,080 have to be something that happens between now and then. 367 00:20:10,120 --> 00:20:13,560 And the line that I keep hearing from Labour MPs, and this isn't 368 00:20:13,560 --> 00:20:15,600 just from. And the ones on the left that 369 00:20:15,600 --> 00:20:18,800 are kicking off about everything that number 10 does, it's a lot 370 00:20:18,800 --> 00:20:21,120 of these are centrist ones. They're saying at the moment, my 371 00:20:21,120 --> 00:20:24,040 God, if we're already having to cut the welfare budget by this 372 00:20:24,040 --> 00:20:26,920 much and this quickly, what on earth are we going to have to do 373 00:20:26,920 --> 00:20:29,400 when it turns out we've got no money in six months time? 374 00:20:29,520 --> 00:20:32,040 Well, if the economic growth isn't delivered, what on earth 375 00:20:32,040 --> 00:20:32,960 are you going to have to cut then? 376 00:20:34,040 --> 00:20:35,520 Yes. And the other thing that came up 377 00:20:35,520 --> 00:20:37,600 in the press conference was the whole question of this digital 378 00:20:37,600 --> 00:20:41,200 services tax and whether there is some secret deal being done 379 00:20:41,600 --> 00:20:47,280 to offer tax relief to the tech Bros in return for a deal on 380 00:20:47,560 --> 00:20:50,520 tariffs. Now, again, I mean, is the 381 00:20:50,520 --> 00:20:53,720 government really going to go to the country and say while 382 00:20:53,720 --> 00:20:58,160 delivering these welfare cuts, it's going to give a tax cut to 383 00:20:58,440 --> 00:20:59,920 the handful of richest people in the world? 384 00:20:59,920 --> 00:21:01,840 It's only a handful of people who actually pay this tax. 385 00:21:02,200 --> 00:21:05,320 The verbal gymnastics that go on whenever you're one of those 386 00:21:05,320 --> 00:21:08,920 press conferences because no one wants to call out Donald Trump. 387 00:21:08,920 --> 00:21:10,920 No one wants to pin their thing on him. 388 00:21:11,040 --> 00:21:13,840 When when Rachel Reeves was asked a specific question about 389 00:21:13,840 --> 00:21:17,080 Donald Trump, the answer, the answer, go back and fair play to 390 00:21:17,080 --> 00:21:18,680 her researchers. They've done their work. 391 00:21:18,680 --> 00:21:19,720 They've got a whole load of stats. 392 00:21:19,720 --> 00:21:21,240 Here you go. Just just say this. 393 00:21:21,360 --> 00:21:23,240 She was able to run. Look under the last Trump 394 00:21:23,240 --> 00:21:24,720 presidency. He loves us. 395 00:21:24,720 --> 00:21:28,040 Actually, the amount of trade that we did went up. 396 00:21:28,200 --> 00:21:30,000 And they find every argument they can. 397 00:21:30,520 --> 00:21:33,160 You can carry on doing that all you want, but in a week's time, 398 00:21:33,200 --> 00:21:35,080 Donald Trump talking about Liberation Day. 399 00:21:35,760 --> 00:21:37,920 If that comes, then all bets are off. 400 00:21:37,960 --> 00:21:41,000 And yes, you're right on that tax for for tech Bros. 401 00:21:41,200 --> 00:21:42,760 My goodness, that will go down badly. 402 00:21:43,360 --> 00:21:46,880 Yeah, there's a risk crush that we're just allowing the US to 403 00:21:46,880 --> 00:21:49,320 pick our pockets here. You know, we're we're bending 404 00:21:49,320 --> 00:21:51,040 over backwards to make it happen. 405 00:21:52,320 --> 00:21:55,600 I just wanted to go back to growth because I do think that 406 00:21:55,600 --> 00:22:00,480 is a big deal because this year, don't forget, one of the big 407 00:22:00,480 --> 00:22:04,080 pieces that came out from today is that, you know, when Labour 408 00:22:04,080 --> 00:22:07,480 came into power, they said growth is their number one 409 00:22:07,480 --> 00:22:09,240 mission. In fact, they said we're going 410 00:22:09,240 --> 00:22:12,000 to grow faster than any other G7 country. 411 00:22:12,520 --> 00:22:15,200 That quickly became the. Sort of ditch that, haven't 412 00:22:15,200 --> 00:22:16,280 they? We're not really quite clear 413 00:22:16,440 --> 00:22:18,920 whether they still pretend that to be the case or not. 414 00:22:19,720 --> 00:22:22,600 Yeah, they just ditched that, but they replaced that with 415 00:22:22,600 --> 00:22:25,080 living standards. They said, OK, well we're not 416 00:22:25,080 --> 00:22:26,800 going to grow faster than everyone else. 417 00:22:26,800 --> 00:22:30,800 Fair enough, fair cop, but we will improve living standards. 418 00:22:30,800 --> 00:22:36,560 And there was a lot made I think today by Rachel Reeves that 419 00:22:36,760 --> 00:22:39,840 living standards are going to go up by the end of this 420 00:22:39,840 --> 00:22:42,840 Parliament. She made a big deal of the fact 421 00:22:42,840 --> 00:22:46,520 that households at the end of Parliament would be 500 lbs 422 00:22:46,840 --> 00:22:49,320 better off. And let's have a listen in on 423 00:22:49,320 --> 00:22:53,800 how that that sounded. This isn't just about lines on a 424 00:22:53,800 --> 00:22:57,040 graph, it's about improving people's lives. 425 00:22:57,560 --> 00:23:02,200 Real household disposable income will now grow this year at 426 00:23:02,200 --> 00:23:05,000 almost twice the rate expected in the autumn. 427 00:23:06,880 --> 00:23:13,040 The OBR say today that people will be on average over £500 a 428 00:23:13,040 --> 00:23:15,960 year better off under this Labour government. 429 00:23:18,880 --> 00:23:21,360 It's so amazing, Lots of cheers, lots of cheers, lots of 430 00:23:21,360 --> 00:23:23,360 applause. And it's all because of Labour. 431 00:23:23,840 --> 00:23:26,360 Except is it really? Because when you look at the 432 00:23:26,360 --> 00:23:30,760 numbers it, a lot of that is driven by the simple arithmetic 433 00:23:30,760 --> 00:23:34,120 of pay going up faster than inflation. 434 00:23:34,400 --> 00:23:37,400 And most of that actually happened not now, not in the 435 00:23:37,400 --> 00:23:40,480 future under this Labour government, but last year. 436 00:23:41,120 --> 00:23:45,680 So that big uptick in incomes happened. 437 00:23:46,160 --> 00:23:47,800 Well, it's already happened. It's very. 438 00:23:48,320 --> 00:23:50,200 Unclear whether she's misspoken there as well. 439 00:23:50,200 --> 00:23:55,400 Isn't it because she said £500 a year better off and it's not 440 00:23:55,400 --> 00:23:59,600 clear whether she means 500 lbs every year or £500 by the end of 441 00:23:59,600 --> 00:24:00,880 this party? By the end of the Parliament, I 442 00:24:00,880 --> 00:24:03,200 think by the end of this Parliament and you get this and 443 00:24:03,200 --> 00:24:05,600 you I mean there is an improvement. 444 00:24:05,600 --> 00:24:09,240 But as the point I wanted to make was that a lot of that 445 00:24:09,240 --> 00:24:12,920 improvement is because it's from a much higher start. 446 00:24:13,160 --> 00:24:20,120 The OBRS forecast today says that actually incomes last year 447 00:24:20,200 --> 00:24:24,920 were much higher than they had accounted for even in October 448 00:24:24,920 --> 00:24:28,000 2024. So a lot of the heavy lifting 449 00:24:28,000 --> 00:24:31,880 has been done already and the problem you face then is that 450 00:24:31,880 --> 00:24:36,720 going forwards or incomes going to be rising at a kind of rate 451 00:24:36,720 --> 00:24:39,120 of not well, I'm afraid no, they're not Chris. 452 00:24:39,160 --> 00:24:41,760 And if it's if. It's £500 / 200 weeks. 453 00:24:42,400 --> 00:24:44,160 I don't think many people are going to be very impressed by 454 00:24:44,160 --> 00:24:48,000 that. I also earlier how many times in 455 00:24:48,000 --> 00:24:51,960 your reporting career have you listened to a chancellor or a or 456 00:24:51,960 --> 00:24:55,400 a Prime Minister say you're going to be X amount £100 better 457 00:24:55,400 --> 00:24:57,480 off in a few years time? Just just one other thing to 458 00:24:57,480 --> 00:24:59,880 mention though, which is very awkward, I think, for the 459 00:24:59,880 --> 00:25:03,760 government today, which is that the OBR have made clear that the 460 00:25:03,760 --> 00:25:06,920 rise in National Insurance at the last budget was in fact a 461 00:25:06,920 --> 00:25:11,440 tax on working people. Yeah, I think that's absolutely 462 00:25:11,440 --> 00:25:13,440 right. I mean, this is one of the 463 00:25:13,440 --> 00:25:17,040 things that there's a slight mismatch between how the 464 00:25:17,040 --> 00:25:19,440 government described their interaction. 465 00:25:19,440 --> 00:25:23,440 Whenever you talk to businesses, from all the surveys, from the 466 00:25:23,600 --> 00:25:27,440 kind of sentiment amongst the business community, they 467 00:25:27,440 --> 00:25:31,960 complain about that £40 billion tax hike that we had last 468 00:25:31,960 --> 00:25:37,320 October, most of that driven by the increase in employer NICs. 469 00:25:37,600 --> 00:25:42,320 Now Reg Reeves says I was absolutely right to do that, 470 00:25:42,320 --> 00:25:45,560 there's no problem with that. That gave us the position to 471 00:25:45,640 --> 00:25:49,360 continue to grow from. But the OBR again, as you said, 472 00:25:49,360 --> 00:25:56,000 Chris said today that 76% of the cost of that would be passed on 473 00:25:56,200 --> 00:25:59,600 to employees through lower incomes. 474 00:25:59,760 --> 00:26:02,840 So going back to that household income thing, where are we going 475 00:26:02,840 --> 00:26:06,200 to be richer? Well, going forward, companies 476 00:26:06,200 --> 00:26:10,000 are going to feel squeezed because from next week these and 477 00:26:10,000 --> 00:26:14,160 I increases come into effect and who's going to pay for that? 478 00:26:14,200 --> 00:26:18,040 Well, you and me, the employees of the of the country. 479 00:26:18,400 --> 00:26:20,760 Right, let's finally talk about Rachel Reeves. 480 00:26:22,080 --> 00:26:26,280 There are still still whispers on there around whether she's 481 00:26:26,280 --> 00:26:29,920 going to stay the course. Paul, do you think people in the 482 00:26:29,920 --> 00:26:33,600 Labour Party are considering whether she should be swapped 483 00:26:33,600 --> 00:26:37,360 out? I think name any chancellor and 484 00:26:37,360 --> 00:26:39,680 I've heard rumors that they're going to be swapped out. 485 00:26:39,680 --> 00:26:44,400 That's kind of an eternal thing that that happens around here. 486 00:26:44,640 --> 00:26:51,000 I think the bigger worry that they've got is a mass rebellion 487 00:26:51,080 --> 00:26:54,880 when it comes to a vote on on the welfare cuts. 488 00:26:55,080 --> 00:27:00,840 But if it gets to, if you make a rule which you say, I'm going to 489 00:27:00,840 --> 00:27:03,520 live and die by these these fiscal rules and I'm and I'm 490 00:27:03,520 --> 00:27:05,000 going to pay for everything by growth. 491 00:27:05,280 --> 00:27:08,560 If we get to six months from now and there isn't growth and 492 00:27:08,560 --> 00:27:09,720 you're still with these fiscal rules. 493 00:27:09,840 --> 00:27:12,840 So you're either going to have to raise taxes massively or 494 00:27:12,840 --> 00:27:17,200 you're going to have to slash spending massively, a mixture of 495 00:27:17,200 --> 00:27:19,920 the both massively. Then yeah, there are going to be 496 00:27:19,920 --> 00:27:21,400 people who are going to be bang for your head. 497 00:27:21,680 --> 00:27:25,640 Do the do the financiers and city people, Helia talk about 498 00:27:25,640 --> 00:27:27,600 this? I mean, do they think she's 499 00:27:27,600 --> 00:27:30,880 she's the one for the full term or do they want Pat McFadden or 500 00:27:30,880 --> 00:27:33,200 somebody else? No, I listen. 501 00:27:33,200 --> 00:27:39,400 I think, you know, department politicians, you know, secretary 502 00:27:39,400 --> 00:27:43,560 of states will always be against Treasury because Treasury is the 503 00:27:43,560 --> 00:27:45,120 one that holds the purse strings. 504 00:27:45,120 --> 00:27:48,200 So I don't think chancellors necessarily have a popular ride. 505 00:27:48,200 --> 00:27:51,840 I mean, particularly Rachel Reeves, but I think she likes 506 00:27:51,840 --> 00:27:54,520 fighting. And I think despite the fact 507 00:27:54,800 --> 00:27:58,840 that businesses are very upset because they feel like she let 508 00:27:58,840 --> 00:28:02,400 them down when it came to the tax rises last year, there's a 509 00:28:02,400 --> 00:28:05,560 lot of hope. When you talk to people within 510 00:28:05,560 --> 00:28:10,880 the market and when you talk to, you know, companies about their 511 00:28:10,880 --> 00:28:14,240 investment plans, don't forget, I mean, to give them the credit, 512 00:28:14,360 --> 00:28:16,920 you know, they were talking about, you know, raising, 513 00:28:16,920 --> 00:28:20,960 they've just had a bill, you know, of reforms for house 514 00:28:20,960 --> 00:28:23,680 building. And you see that the OBR has 515 00:28:23,680 --> 00:28:27,800 actually scored that today. So the, the government has said 516 00:28:27,800 --> 00:28:30,600 we're going to build 1.5 million homes. 517 00:28:30,600 --> 00:28:34,080 Most builders say that's not possible, but the OBR today say, 518 00:28:34,080 --> 00:28:37,160 well, actually we think, yeah, you might, you might just under 519 00:28:37,160 --> 00:28:41,040 that, you know, 1.3. But that's a lot of improvement 520 00:28:41,040 --> 00:28:44,120 from the last government. And so there's a lot of hope, I 521 00:28:44,120 --> 00:28:47,880 think, from companies that the kind of reforms to planning, the 522 00:28:47,880 --> 00:28:51,560 kind of changes to infrastructure will start to 523 00:28:51,560 --> 00:28:55,640 materialize, the kind of changes to the the national wealth fund, 524 00:28:55,640 --> 00:29:00,240 all of these pieces of reform will add up to something. 525 00:29:00,560 --> 00:29:05,680 But of course that's all all dependent on, you know, don't 526 00:29:05,680 --> 00:29:08,600 come back in autumn and ask for more tax. 527 00:29:09,960 --> 00:29:11,720 So she's safe for now, Paul. You reckon she's? 528 00:29:12,560 --> 00:29:15,600 Safe for now, but six months from now, that's when. 529 00:29:15,800 --> 00:29:17,920 That's when if they. Have to break their manifesto. 530 00:29:19,320 --> 00:29:22,720 Yeah, you know, and it's not just going to be MPs are going 531 00:29:22,720 --> 00:29:25,920 to talk about it, headline writers are going to be full of 532 00:29:25,920 --> 00:29:28,320 it. If you get 6 months from now and 533 00:29:28,480 --> 00:29:30,960 a certain section of the press thinks that she's doing an even 534 00:29:30,960 --> 00:29:32,960 worse job than they already feel that she's doing. 535 00:29:32,960 --> 00:29:35,120 Because a certain section of the press are always going to be 536 00:29:35,120 --> 00:29:38,000 anti Labour government. But those headlines are going to 537 00:29:38,000 --> 00:29:40,400 ratchet up and ratchet up and ratchet up. 538 00:29:40,600 --> 00:29:44,440 And it's when the it's when the gossip on the WhatsApp group 539 00:29:44,440 --> 00:29:46,760 started ratcheting up, ratcheting up and inevitably 540 00:29:46,920 --> 00:29:49,000 starts to leak. And that's when you know, things 541 00:29:49,000 --> 00:29:51,280 are in real trouble. We started getting leaks out of 542 00:29:51,520 --> 00:29:54,320 cabinet or six months ago, we definitely weren't getting that. 543 00:29:54,400 --> 00:29:56,920 They were rigid as hell. Now we started getting the odd 544 00:29:56,920 --> 00:29:59,120 leak from what's happening in the WhatsApp groups. 545 00:29:59,120 --> 00:30:00,880 Again, six months ago, that wasn't. 546 00:30:00,880 --> 00:30:04,120 Happening, but that's because we've got a spending review 547 00:30:04,120 --> 00:30:06,280 coming up. I think some of that is just the 548 00:30:06,280 --> 00:30:11,320 normal, you know, class of yeah, exactly, exactly. 549 00:30:11,600 --> 00:30:13,920 And I'm, I mean, I think a. Bit I think a bit of it is that, 550 00:30:13,920 --> 00:30:17,160 but you know, you know, these are the guys that have been 551 00:30:17,760 --> 00:30:20,840 fighting for years to turn everything around, turn the 552 00:30:20,840 --> 00:30:25,080 perception of them around and talking to the special advisor, 553 00:30:25,080 --> 00:30:29,560 to some, to a cabinet member. One of the one of the things 554 00:30:29,560 --> 00:30:35,080 they said to me two weeks ago was first of all, we're talking 555 00:30:35,080 --> 00:30:37,520 about the relationship. This is the special from from 556 00:30:37,520 --> 00:30:39,760 the unprotected department. They were talking about the 557 00:30:39,760 --> 00:30:42,720 relationship with the Treasury. They were saying that Rachel's 558 00:30:42,720 --> 00:30:45,720 never been stronger. They're feeling really weak. 559 00:30:45,880 --> 00:30:48,920 And the, and the line that kept that got me was I thought the 560 00:30:48,920 --> 00:30:51,600 bonds of friendship would have extended further into government 561 00:30:51,720 --> 00:30:53,400 than this. So it wasn't just about spending 562 00:30:53,400 --> 00:30:55,000 review. You can start, you can really 563 00:30:55,000 --> 00:30:57,480 start feeling the fractures between some of the people that 564 00:30:57,480 --> 00:30:59,760 have been, you know, fighting for this for years together. 565 00:31:00,080 --> 00:31:01,600 We better leave it there. This is great. 566 00:31:01,600 --> 00:31:03,160 I like we should have correspondents arguing on 567 00:31:03,160 --> 00:31:06,200 Channel 4 News more. It's like a sort of a peek into 568 00:31:06,200 --> 00:31:09,160 our morning meeting. But I've got to get down to 569 00:31:09,160 --> 00:31:11,080 Westminster for Channel 4 News at 7:00. 570 00:31:11,920 --> 00:31:12,880 Can't. Wait to see. 571 00:31:12,880 --> 00:31:15,680 Chris for this edition of the Forecast. 572 00:31:15,680 --> 00:31:16,960 Until next time, bye bye.