1 00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:04,040 The fear, the concern would always be that this whole crisis 2 00:00:04,040 --> 00:00:07,400 would push them further towards accelerating the drive towards 3 00:00:07,400 --> 00:00:10,160 getting a nuclear bomb because that they'll see that's the only 4 00:00:10,160 --> 00:00:13,960 thing capable of of ensuring deterrence and and perhaps the 5 00:00:13,960 --> 00:00:16,760 regime's survival. One of the things we've learned 6 00:00:16,760 --> 00:00:20,880 over the years is that any kind of military intervention, it has 7 00:00:20,880 --> 00:00:23,960 unintended consequences and we just don't know what those are 8 00:00:23,960 --> 00:00:25,920 going to be. There are all sorts of doomsday 9 00:00:25,920 --> 00:00:28,920 scenarios as well-being speculated about, around the 10 00:00:28,920 --> 00:00:33,040 possibility of dirty bombs, asymmetric warfare, Iran, you 11 00:00:33,040 --> 00:00:35,480 know, activating terrorism cells. 12 00:00:35,800 --> 00:00:37,480 What? What's the calculation there? 13 00:00:41,440 --> 00:00:43,240 Hello, and welcome to the forecast. 14 00:00:43,240 --> 00:00:46,920 Somewhere between total obliteration and significant 15 00:00:46,920 --> 00:00:48,640 damage. That's what the American 16 00:00:48,640 --> 00:00:52,560 administration is saying it has done to Iran after its weekend 17 00:00:52,840 --> 00:00:55,440 air strikes on its nuclear facilities. 18 00:00:55,440 --> 00:00:59,160 But it may be a bigger phrase than that in terms of the 19 00:00:59,160 --> 00:01:02,520 significance for the region and the wider world for this special 20 00:01:02,520 --> 00:01:05,000 forecast. This morning, I'm in Washington, 21 00:01:05,319 --> 00:01:07,280 DC. Our international editor, 22 00:01:07,280 --> 00:01:10,160 Lindsay Hilson, joins us from London, and our correspondent 23 00:01:10,160 --> 00:01:13,480 Sakunda Kamani joins us from Jerusalem. 24 00:01:14,440 --> 00:01:17,320 Lindsay, the Iranian foreign minister is going to Russia 25 00:01:17,680 --> 00:01:22,720 Today, and there have been air strikes by Israel on Iran. 26 00:01:23,200 --> 00:01:25,760 I mean, where does it look like this is going today? 27 00:01:26,680 --> 00:01:30,040 Well, at the moment, what the Iranian foreign minister is 28 00:01:30,040 --> 00:01:32,560 doing is he's trying to get as much diplomatic support as 29 00:01:32,560 --> 00:01:34,240 possible. And the Russians have been a 30 00:01:34,240 --> 00:01:37,560 little bit equivocal, really, in their support for Iran. 31 00:01:37,560 --> 00:01:42,240 But today, Putin seemed to be more condemnatory of the 32 00:01:42,240 --> 00:01:44,920 Americans than he had been before. 33 00:01:45,480 --> 00:01:48,800 But, you know, diplomatic support, What is that going to 34 00:01:48,800 --> 00:01:54,280 do for Iran at this point? The Israelis are just banging 35 00:01:54,280 --> 00:01:57,200 away. They have hit Evin Prison, which 36 00:01:57,200 --> 00:02:00,440 is where many political prisoners are being held, some 37 00:02:00,440 --> 00:02:04,800 of whom were apparently injured. They've hit the headquarters of 38 00:02:04,800 --> 00:02:08,240 the Revolutionary Guard. There are many targets which 39 00:02:08,240 --> 00:02:11,400 they're going for, which are very much not the nuclear 40 00:02:11,400 --> 00:02:13,680 facilities or even military facilities. 41 00:02:13,920 --> 00:02:18,760 They are regime targets. And so it looks as if the 42 00:02:18,760 --> 00:02:23,840 Israelis are trying to weaken the Islamic Republic as much as 43 00:02:23,840 --> 00:02:28,240 possible, while the Americans are sort of pulling back a 44 00:02:28,240 --> 00:02:32,360 little bit. So President Trump and but what 45 00:02:32,360 --> 00:02:35,680 President Trump says, it's sort of varies because JD Vance's 46 00:02:35,680 --> 00:02:38,960 vice president was very clear, saying yesterday, we are not 47 00:02:38,960 --> 00:02:41,520 going for regime change. This is about the nuclear 48 00:02:41,520 --> 00:02:43,800 program. And then President Trump tweets 49 00:02:43,800 --> 00:02:45,360 today. Well, you know, maybe it is 50 00:02:45,360 --> 00:02:48,320 going to be regime change. So, as ever, when you put 51 00:02:48,320 --> 00:02:52,120 President Trump into the mix, what seems clear suddenly 52 00:02:52,120 --> 00:02:55,600 becomes not so clear after all. What about the actual damage 53 00:02:55,600 --> 00:02:58,840 done to the nuclear sites? Because it's now seeming clear 54 00:02:58,840 --> 00:03:02,880 that Iran had had time to move some of its facilities. 55 00:03:02,880 --> 00:03:06,720 It might well have got the uranium and the centrifuges out. 56 00:03:07,480 --> 00:03:10,520 All all we've seen are pictures of essentially holes in the 57 00:03:10,520 --> 00:03:11,760 sand. So. 58 00:03:11,840 --> 00:03:14,760 So how confident can we can we be about what's actually been 59 00:03:14,760 --> 00:03:16,880 done? I think it's very, very 60 00:03:16,880 --> 00:03:18,520 difficult. I mean, President Trump 61 00:03:18,520 --> 00:03:21,080 yesterday was very keen to say, you know, the Iranian nuclear 62 00:03:21,080 --> 00:03:25,360 programme has been obliterated. But even then, the head of the 63 00:03:25,360 --> 00:03:27,440 Joint Chiefs of Staff was saying, well, you know, we'll 64 00:03:27,440 --> 00:03:29,840 have to wait for the battlefield assessment. 65 00:03:30,200 --> 00:03:34,360 And one of the problems is if you hit a facility which is 66 00:03:34,360 --> 00:03:37,880 deeply underground, well, the satellite pictures aren't going 67 00:03:37,880 --> 00:03:40,880 to show you very much, are you? You need to be able to have a 68 00:03:40,880 --> 00:03:43,880 camera that goes deep into the earth and they don't have that. 69 00:03:44,280 --> 00:03:48,560 Now the IAEA, the International Atomic Energy Agency has said 70 00:03:48,760 --> 00:03:52,120 that there's no question that there is serious damage to 71 00:03:52,120 --> 00:03:53,880 Fordo. That is the, the Jeep 72 00:03:53,880 --> 00:03:56,800 underground facility. But they don't have the ability 73 00:03:56,800 --> 00:03:58,840 at the moment to really make that assessment. 74 00:03:59,120 --> 00:04:02,840 And yes, there is a, there are reports that there are 400 75 00:04:02,840 --> 00:04:05,240 kilograms of highly enriched uranium. 76 00:04:05,240 --> 00:04:07,960 That's uranium which has been enriched to 60%. 77 00:04:08,160 --> 00:04:12,040 You need 90% for a bomb, but it's, it's a short step from 60 78 00:04:12,040 --> 00:04:15,080 to 90 apparently. And yes, we don't know where 79 00:04:15,080 --> 00:04:16,920 that is. Was it in the underground 80 00:04:16,920 --> 00:04:21,200 facility or did they move it some weeks or months earlier? 81 00:04:21,480 --> 00:04:24,960 As yet, we just don't know. Secunda, I mean, what's the 82 00:04:24,960 --> 00:04:29,360 reaction been like in Israel? Are they all Cocker hoop? 83 00:04:30,040 --> 00:04:32,040 Well, look, certainly the Israeli government had been 84 00:04:32,040 --> 00:04:35,480 wanting President Trump to carry out these strikes. 85 00:04:35,480 --> 00:04:38,840 They know, as all analysts have been saying for the last couple 86 00:04:38,840 --> 00:04:43,160 of weeks, that it's only these huge 30,000 LB American Buster 87 00:04:43,160 --> 00:04:48,120 bust, bunker Buster bombs that we're able to take out or cause 88 00:04:48,120 --> 00:04:51,480 significant damage at least to the Fordo underground nuclear 89 00:04:51,480 --> 00:04:53,960 facility. So we'd had Israeli officials 90 00:04:54,600 --> 00:04:58,200 calling on the Trump administration to to get 91 00:04:58,200 --> 00:05:01,320 involved. And so yes, they are, I think 92 00:05:01,320 --> 00:05:03,840 absolutely happy. We've in fact seen President 93 00:05:04,280 --> 00:05:08,320 Prime Minister Netanyahu's popularity rise as a result of 94 00:05:08,320 --> 00:05:10,200 this. The war with Iran is has a lot 95 00:05:10,200 --> 00:05:12,680 of popular support here in Israel. 96 00:05:12,880 --> 00:05:18,920 Many here are now at this stage divided about the war in Gaza. 97 00:05:18,920 --> 00:05:22,920 And majority, around 70% of the population would be willing to 98 00:05:22,920 --> 00:05:26,080 see an end to the conflict there in exchange for the return of 99 00:05:26,080 --> 00:05:28,640 the hostages. But support for the war with 100 00:05:28,640 --> 00:05:32,840 Iran is, is much, much higher, but 70 to 80% of people and, and 101 00:05:32,840 --> 00:05:36,520 anytime certainly I've spoken to people, even those living at the 102 00:05:37,120 --> 00:05:40,520 sites that have been struck by Iranian ballistic missiles that 103 00:05:40,520 --> 00:05:44,000 have managed to penetrate the Israeli air defence systems. 104 00:05:44,240 --> 00:05:47,880 They say that we consider the possibility of a nuclear armed 105 00:05:47,880 --> 00:05:51,480 Iran as an existential threat. And so this is something that we 106 00:05:51,480 --> 00:05:55,240 believe needed to happen at the moment. 107 00:05:55,480 --> 00:05:59,040 I think that's the, the kind of main feeling here, both 108 00:05:59,160 --> 00:06:02,240 politically and at a grassroots level. 109 00:06:02,240 --> 00:06:05,280 I mean, interestingly, even Netanyahu's political opponents, 110 00:06:05,440 --> 00:06:09,240 some of those on further to the left of him have been praising 111 00:06:09,240 --> 00:06:12,280 his, his actions and his decision going on board with his 112 00:06:12,280 --> 00:06:14,600 decision to, to, to attack the Iranians. 113 00:06:15,640 --> 00:06:18,040 We'll have to wait and see. I think as, as you and Lindsay 114 00:06:18,040 --> 00:06:21,640 are pointing out about exactly how much damage has been caused 115 00:06:21,640 --> 00:06:25,600 to Iran's nuclear capabilities, because you know, the, the, the 116 00:06:25,600 --> 00:06:30,200 fear, the concern would always be that actually the what if 117 00:06:30,200 --> 00:06:35,000 the, if the regime retains any ability to, to carry out further 118 00:06:35,000 --> 00:06:38,320 enrichment, that this whole crisis would push them further 119 00:06:38,320 --> 00:06:41,240 towards accelerating the drive towards getting a nuclear bomb. 120 00:06:41,240 --> 00:06:44,880 Because that they'll see that's the only thing capable of of 121 00:06:44,880 --> 00:06:48,440 ensuring deterrence and perhaps the regime's survival. 122 00:06:48,880 --> 00:06:51,560 And if there is perhaps deliberate ambiguity here in 123 00:06:51,840 --> 00:06:57,240 Washington about the aims of the American strikes, are the war 124 00:06:57,240 --> 00:06:59,440 aims becoming any clearer in Israel? 125 00:07:01,400 --> 00:07:04,240 Well, I've asked the the Israeli foreign minister whether regime 126 00:07:04,240 --> 00:07:09,640 change was one of their aims. He and Prime Minister Netanyahu 127 00:07:09,640 --> 00:07:13,760 have both said that it is not that their aim is to destroy the 128 00:07:13,760 --> 00:07:17,000 nuclear capabilities than ballistic missile capabilities 129 00:07:17,240 --> 00:07:20,040 held by Iran. But it does seem a little bit 130 00:07:20,040 --> 00:07:22,800 more vague than that, just as you've had that confusion around 131 00:07:22,800 --> 00:07:27,520 Trump's own stance. So there's been images that that 132 00:07:27,520 --> 00:07:30,760 I think Prime Minister Netanyahu's put out on, on, on 133 00:07:30,760 --> 00:07:35,920 Twitter to show the Iranian monarchs flag the, the royal 134 00:07:35,920 --> 00:07:39,040 flag of Iran. And, and so I think certainly 135 00:07:39,240 --> 00:07:43,040 the Israelis would like to see a regime change in Iran. 136 00:07:43,040 --> 00:07:46,280 But I and, you know, we've seen actions that are probably 137 00:07:46,280 --> 00:07:50,800 undertaken by them, for example, hacking of the Iranian state TV 138 00:07:50,800 --> 00:07:54,120 broadcaster with calls for people to come out to the 139 00:07:54,120 --> 00:07:56,320 streets. We've had repeated calls by net 140 00:07:56,440 --> 00:07:59,680 Yahoo to the Iranian people to overthrow their regime. 141 00:07:59,680 --> 00:08:01,880 So they certainly would like to see it happen. 142 00:08:02,040 --> 00:08:05,920 Whether they're capable of doing it, I think is another question. 143 00:08:05,920 --> 00:08:08,800 I mean, I can't think of another example in history, perhaps you 144 00:08:08,800 --> 00:08:13,680 and Lindsay can, of when regime change has been implemented by 145 00:08:13,960 --> 00:08:17,840 an outside power that does not have ground troops invading a 146 00:08:17,840 --> 00:08:21,560 country as it seems out of the question and without any kind of 147 00:08:21,560 --> 00:08:26,920 local allied opposition force ready to swoop in and and take 148 00:08:26,920 --> 00:08:30,240 on the the, the existing the existing government. 149 00:08:30,720 --> 00:08:32,120 Lindsay, what's going on in Iran? 150 00:08:33,240 --> 00:08:37,360 Well, look, we're seeing through a glass darkly, but the voice 151 00:08:37,360 --> 00:08:42,159 messages that we're able to to get from there suggest that 152 00:08:42,520 --> 00:08:47,920 there is a lot of consternation on the part of people who are in 153 00:08:47,920 --> 00:08:50,880 the central part of Tehran. Evin Prison is right in the 154 00:08:50,880 --> 00:08:53,680 centre of Tehran. So, you know, people heard that 155 00:08:54,240 --> 00:08:58,120 go up and was scared and and then we've had messages. 156 00:08:58,120 --> 00:09:01,520 There was somebody, a political prisoner who was in there who 157 00:09:01,520 --> 00:09:04,320 called his family and there was a recording of that who just 158 00:09:04,320 --> 00:09:06,360 described, you know, the terror of it. 159 00:09:06,520 --> 00:09:08,320 You think about it, you're a political prisoner. 160 00:09:08,320 --> 00:09:12,640 You've been put away for being against the government, against 161 00:09:12,640 --> 00:09:16,080 the Islamic Republic. And then suddenly the Israelis 162 00:09:16,320 --> 00:09:19,720 who are probably trying to destabilize, if not overthrow 163 00:09:19,720 --> 00:09:22,680 the regime, are bombing you. I mean, in that sense people are 164 00:09:22,680 --> 00:09:28,800 totally confused and as couldn't assess there's no organized 165 00:09:29,240 --> 00:09:32,280 opposition. So Raza Paklavi, who is the the 166 00:09:32,280 --> 00:09:35,160 son of the last Shah, he's trying to sort of set himself up 167 00:09:35,160 --> 00:09:38,400 as some kind of opposition leader, but he's in, in 168 00:09:38,400 --> 00:09:41,240 Washington, you know, he's a Pallavi on the Potomac. 169 00:09:41,240 --> 00:09:43,760 Maybe you'll go and see him. I mean, there he is. 170 00:09:44,040 --> 00:09:47,640 And this whole operation by these, they've called it rising 171 00:09:47,640 --> 00:09:49,800 lion. Well, the lion is his symbol, 172 00:09:50,080 --> 00:09:54,960 but he doesn't really have any following in, in Iran, almost 173 00:09:54,960 --> 00:09:57,360 none. And people are, you know, 174 00:09:57,360 --> 00:09:59,240 they're worried about water, they're worried about 175 00:09:59,240 --> 00:10:01,320 electricity. There's electricity blackouts in 176 00:10:01,320 --> 00:10:03,960 some of the city. The Internet is down. 177 00:10:03,960 --> 00:10:06,800 Most of the time we're only able to get messages sporadically 178 00:10:06,800 --> 00:10:11,280 because most of the time people can't communicate and so people 179 00:10:11,280 --> 00:10:14,840 are scared and. Are there still foreign 180 00:10:14,840 --> 00:10:17,680 prisoners in Evin Prison? I mean, this is obviously where 181 00:10:17,680 --> 00:10:19,520 Nazanin Zaghari Ratcliffe was held, isn't it? 182 00:10:20,080 --> 00:10:23,520 Yeah, there are two, I know of 2 French prisoners who are in 183 00:10:23,520 --> 00:10:26,040 there. And interesting, I was in Geneva 184 00:10:26,040 --> 00:10:31,280 on Friday and the French foreign minister was talking about them 185 00:10:31,280 --> 00:10:33,240 and saying that one of the things they really want is 186 00:10:33,240 --> 00:10:36,440 their, their people back. Now they're both intervene. 187 00:10:36,640 --> 00:10:40,000 And I'm sure there are others as well, because often countries 188 00:10:40,000 --> 00:10:44,680 don't publicise what's happened to the to their people in Iran 189 00:10:44,680 --> 00:10:48,080 because it's, it's deemed that quiet diplomacy will do better. 190 00:10:48,080 --> 00:10:49,920 So yes, there are definitely foreign prisoners. 191 00:10:50,800 --> 00:10:53,840 Now, in, in terms of what Iran might do next, I mean, it hasn't 192 00:10:53,920 --> 00:10:59,040 really done very much so far other than its diplomatic, you 193 00:10:59,040 --> 00:11:03,320 know, moves and saying it it it will, it will respond in the 194 00:11:03,320 --> 00:11:06,600 manner to which it chooses. Now, the parliament has talked 195 00:11:06,600 --> 00:11:10,400 about closing the Straits of Hormuz. 196 00:11:12,120 --> 00:11:14,040 What what's the significance of that? 197 00:11:14,040 --> 00:11:16,400 Can it do it and how would it do it? 198 00:11:17,200 --> 00:11:19,960 Yeah. So Iran has a number of options. 199 00:11:20,120 --> 00:11:25,040 So the option which would cause a lot of economic damage is 200 00:11:25,040 --> 00:11:28,440 closing the Straits of Hormuz. Now, this is a narrow waterway 201 00:11:28,760 --> 00:11:33,080 through which a large proportion of the world's oil comes. 202 00:11:33,400 --> 00:11:37,880 But that if they close that, which they could do while using 203 00:11:37,880 --> 00:11:42,200 sea mines or, you know, small boats or whatever, that also 204 00:11:42,200 --> 00:11:45,400 affects the oil, which is going to their allies, including 205 00:11:45,400 --> 00:11:49,800 China, so as well as obviously to, to Western countries. 206 00:11:50,080 --> 00:11:53,800 So that is quite a, that's quite a difficult thing to do. 207 00:11:54,560 --> 00:11:56,920 But they can do that. And the parliament has said that 208 00:11:56,920 --> 00:12:00,040 they will do that. The Iranian parliament doesn't 209 00:12:00,320 --> 00:12:03,360 dictate what happens, but it, it, it gives its advice. 210 00:12:03,720 --> 00:12:09,720 Now then you've got U.S. forces, about 40,000 of them across the 211 00:12:09,720 --> 00:12:13,760 region in places like Bahrain and Qatar and the UAE and Iraq. 212 00:12:14,240 --> 00:12:17,000 They could attack those facilities because but of 213 00:12:17,000 --> 00:12:19,120 course, those facilities are well prepared for attack. 214 00:12:19,120 --> 00:12:23,360 They knew that might happen. And interestingly, after the 215 00:12:23,560 --> 00:12:28,400 Americans killed Suleimani, you know, the leader of the the IGC 216 00:12:29,320 --> 00:12:33,800 a few years back, the Iranians, they wanted to retaliate, but 217 00:12:33,800 --> 00:12:38,240 they didn't want to start World War 3. 218 00:12:38,240 --> 00:12:40,960 So they warned the Americans that they were going to attack 219 00:12:40,960 --> 00:12:42,600 facilities, particularly in Iraq. 220 00:12:42,840 --> 00:12:45,080 So the Americans knew to get their people out. 221 00:12:45,080 --> 00:12:46,760 So in a sense, it was almost symbolic. 222 00:12:47,520 --> 00:12:50,480 They could do something like that or they could go for it and 223 00:12:50,480 --> 00:12:54,400 they could, you know, they have cells in different places. 224 00:12:54,400 --> 00:12:57,360 They may be weaker in the region than they were because their 225 00:12:57,360 --> 00:13:02,200 proxies like Hezbollah and so on are much weakened by Israel over 226 00:13:02,200 --> 00:13:05,720 the last last year. But, you know, they may well 227 00:13:05,720 --> 00:13:09,800 have terrorist cells in different countries which could 228 00:13:09,800 --> 00:13:12,840 attack Israeli or American targets. 229 00:13:13,040 --> 00:13:18,840 I mean, there have been Iranian journalists here working for 230 00:13:18,840 --> 00:13:21,160 opposition channels who have been attacked. 231 00:13:21,200 --> 00:13:24,120 And Scotland Jihad has said that the Iranian government is is 232 00:13:24,120 --> 00:13:26,760 behind that. So, you know, you could see all 233 00:13:26,760 --> 00:13:28,400 sorts of little attacks like that. 234 00:13:28,400 --> 00:13:32,440 Little in the sense of not being complete outright war, but 235 00:13:32,440 --> 00:13:35,160 attacks nonetheless. So come to how much damage is 236 00:13:35,160 --> 00:13:37,720 actually being done in Israel now. 237 00:13:37,760 --> 00:13:41,120 I mean, you know, we, we keep hearing about how depleted the 238 00:13:41,120 --> 00:13:45,600 Iranian ballistic missile battery is, but they're still 239 00:13:45,600 --> 00:13:47,680 sending things over and they're getting through. 240 00:13:49,280 --> 00:13:50,400 They are. They are at times. 241 00:13:50,400 --> 00:13:53,560 So Iran was said to have had around 2002 1/2 thousand 242 00:13:53,560 --> 00:13:57,040 ballistic missiles prior to the start of this conflict. 243 00:13:57,280 --> 00:13:59,840 The latest figures we have from the Israeli army are around it 244 00:14:00,200 --> 00:14:02,480 that around 500 of them had been fired. 245 00:14:02,480 --> 00:14:04,800 So that would suggest that there's, there's a substantial 246 00:14:04,800 --> 00:14:08,760 number still there, even if you account for a number which the 247 00:14:08,760 --> 00:14:12,200 Israeli army are likely to have managed to destroy with their 248 00:14:12,200 --> 00:14:15,480 strikes. The military here also says, 249 00:14:15,480 --> 00:14:18,400 however, they've destroyed around half of all Israel, 250 00:14:18,960 --> 00:14:21,240 Iran's ballistic missile launches. 251 00:14:21,440 --> 00:14:24,760 And we have certainly seen a very significant drop off in 252 00:14:24,760 --> 00:14:29,120 the, in the scale of the attacks that Iran has been launching. 253 00:14:29,120 --> 00:14:32,560 So, you know, in the in the initial few days of the war, we 254 00:14:32,560 --> 00:14:37,200 were seeing dozens and dozens of missiles being launched up to, 255 00:14:37,280 --> 00:14:41,400 you know, 100 Times Now, you know, around 3:00 in the morning 256 00:14:41,400 --> 00:14:45,160 this morning, we had a single ballistic that was intercepted. 257 00:14:45,360 --> 00:14:49,320 I think around 10 were fired later in the later in the day. 258 00:14:49,320 --> 00:14:51,360 Yesterday was one of them in the morning. 259 00:14:51,360 --> 00:14:54,360 So kind of the first initial perhaps reaction to those 260 00:14:54,640 --> 00:14:59,640 American strikes in Iran, we saw a barrage of around 20 to 30 261 00:14:59,640 --> 00:15:03,040 ballistic missiles. So there's definitely been a 262 00:15:03,040 --> 00:15:04,960 drop off. The Iranians I think might 263 00:15:04,960 --> 00:15:07,400 suggest that they're perhaps conserving some of their stop 264 00:15:07,400 --> 00:15:11,040 for a longer war. But given the scale of Israel's 265 00:15:11,040 --> 00:15:15,200 attacks on on Iran, and I think it's quite possible that they 266 00:15:15,440 --> 00:15:19,920 they have now a very significantly reduced capability 267 00:15:19,920 --> 00:15:22,840 to to strike as well. Of course, you know, you've been 268 00:15:22,840 --> 00:15:25,160 here, both of you. So, you know, the, the Israeli 269 00:15:25,160 --> 00:15:27,640 air defense system is very sophisticated, very powerful. 270 00:15:27,840 --> 00:15:31,360 It is not 100%. And so we see on occasion some 271 00:15:31,360 --> 00:15:36,600 missiles managing to get through the death toll here, around 24 272 00:15:36,600 --> 00:15:40,080 people, I believe is the, is the still the current figure. 273 00:15:40,280 --> 00:15:43,360 I mean, that's, that's significant by Israeli 274 00:15:43,360 --> 00:15:44,840 standards. And of course every death 275 00:15:44,840 --> 00:15:47,360 anywhere in the world of a civilian is a, is a, is a 276 00:15:47,360 --> 00:15:50,440 tragedy, but it's much, much lower than the number of people 277 00:15:50,960 --> 00:15:53,040 who were killed in Iran. I think the latest figures I saw 278 00:15:53,040 --> 00:15:56,880 from human rights groups working there were suggesting around in 279 00:15:56,880 --> 00:16:01,240 excess of 600 people at least, at least around or approximately 280 00:16:01,240 --> 00:16:03,680 around half of them civilians being killed. 281 00:16:03,680 --> 00:16:07,720 So, you know, the, the damage that's been done to Israel has 282 00:16:07,720 --> 00:16:11,840 not, has not at at this stage reached a proportion that's 283 00:16:11,840 --> 00:16:14,440 making ordinary people or politicians rethink their 284 00:16:14,440 --> 00:16:17,480 decisions. There was reporting to the the 285 00:16:17,480 --> 00:16:21,800 beginning of the war saying that Israeli intelligence officials 286 00:16:21,800 --> 00:16:25,640 had when devising plans for an attack on Iran, which of course 287 00:16:25,640 --> 00:16:28,720 had been, you know, being prepared for, for for many 288 00:16:28,720 --> 00:16:30,960 years. They've looked at potentially 289 00:16:31,160 --> 00:16:33,920 casualties being and fatalities being in the thousands. 290 00:16:33,920 --> 00:16:36,560 And we certainly not at a stage like that. 291 00:16:36,560 --> 00:16:39,400 And whilst everyone here I think is expecting that there will be 292 00:16:39,400 --> 00:16:42,000 some Iranian military retaliation that could take the 293 00:16:42,000 --> 00:16:46,520 form of, you know, a ramping up of the of the missile barrages. 294 00:16:46,920 --> 00:16:50,080 At the moment people here I think are feeling fairly 295 00:16:50,080 --> 00:16:52,400 confident. I mean, I was very struck by 296 00:16:52,440 --> 00:16:55,480 your report last night actually, where where you had a a man 297 00:16:55,480 --> 00:16:59,120 who'd lost his home, but he seemed incredibly sanguine and 298 00:16:59,120 --> 00:17:01,440 quite confident that it was the final stage of the war. 299 00:17:03,520 --> 00:17:06,720 Yeah, I think most Israelis, I mean, I was speaking to some in 300 00:17:06,720 --> 00:17:10,839 a in a shelter earlier this morning near where we were when 301 00:17:10,839 --> 00:17:14,160 when sirens went off and was chatting to them about how they 302 00:17:14,160 --> 00:17:16,480 were feeling. And of course people, many 303 00:17:16,480 --> 00:17:21,599 people do feel afraid. But a lot of them also said that 304 00:17:21,599 --> 00:17:25,119 they believe they hope that there's now a kind of off ramp 305 00:17:25,160 --> 00:17:29,160 possibility and that once Iran has conducted some kind of 306 00:17:29,160 --> 00:17:33,240 strike, which they hope will be largely safe face saving rather 307 00:17:33,240 --> 00:17:37,160 than escalatory, then there could be the possibility of, of, 308 00:17:37,160 --> 00:17:39,680 of negotiations. I mean, the Trump administration 309 00:17:39,680 --> 00:17:41,440 has certainly held out that possibility. 310 00:17:41,680 --> 00:17:44,640 And you know, you guys have been talking about the, the stockpile 311 00:17:44,640 --> 00:17:48,600 of around 400kg of enriched uranium that is probably still 312 00:17:48,600 --> 00:17:51,280 exist somewhere in Iran. So I would have thought it would 313 00:17:51,280 --> 00:17:55,160 very much be in the US and Israel's interest to try and 314 00:17:55,160 --> 00:17:58,720 strike some kind of deal with the Iranians to ensure that that 315 00:17:58,720 --> 00:18:05,040 is not enriched to the 90% weapons grade quality that that 316 00:18:05,040 --> 00:18:09,560 it could be were there to be a complete breakdown in, in, in 317 00:18:09,560 --> 00:18:11,360 any kind of communications with the Iranians. 318 00:18:11,360 --> 00:18:14,200 And and they take their and they take their nuclear program 319 00:18:14,200 --> 00:18:16,680 completely underground. Lindsay, I mean, there are all 320 00:18:16,680 --> 00:18:19,520 sorts of doomsday scenarios as well-being speculated about 321 00:18:19,880 --> 00:18:24,880 around the possibility of dirty bombs, asymmetric warfare, Iran, 322 00:18:25,600 --> 00:18:29,120 you know, activating terrorism cells that there was there was a 323 00:18:29,120 --> 00:18:33,080 report here in America from NBC who was saying that the Iranians 324 00:18:33,080 --> 00:18:36,560 are already warned Trump indirectly that they had sleeper 325 00:18:36,560 --> 00:18:40,480 cells in the United States. What? 326 00:18:40,480 --> 00:18:43,960 What's the calculation there? Well, there's there's a number 327 00:18:43,960 --> 00:18:45,960 of calculations out there. So you've got the supreme 328 00:18:45,960 --> 00:18:50,680 leader, Ali Khamenei, who's 86. So what does he want? 329 00:18:50,680 --> 00:18:54,960 Well, he wants the regime to survive and to survive after his 330 00:18:54,960 --> 00:18:58,040 death, which will presumably come at some point in the next 331 00:18:58,040 --> 00:19:01,280 few years. And he has. 332 00:19:01,360 --> 00:19:05,120 But he built up this system of having the proxies across the 333 00:19:05,120 --> 00:19:08,520 region and so on and having this strength through the nuclear 334 00:19:08,520 --> 00:19:11,640 program, much of which has been destroyed. 335 00:19:11,920 --> 00:19:15,320 And so, you know, arguably his life's work has it has come to 336 00:19:15,320 --> 00:19:19,720 very little in the end. So there is one argument which 337 00:19:19,720 --> 00:19:22,720 says that, you know, he will just go down fighting, that he 338 00:19:22,720 --> 00:19:25,280 wants to be seen as as a fighter and a master. 339 00:19:25,280 --> 00:19:27,760 He doesn't care what comes after, but he's got a son who 340 00:19:27,760 --> 00:19:29,560 might inherit the role. There's all sorts of 341 00:19:29,560 --> 00:19:31,240 calculations which we don't really know about. 342 00:19:31,600 --> 00:19:33,800 There's manoeuvring within the regime. 343 00:19:33,800 --> 00:19:37,680 We understand from, you know, rumours in the way that these 344 00:19:37,680 --> 00:19:40,320 things are that different people saying that they are, you know, 345 00:19:40,320 --> 00:19:45,920 they now want to to take over because they are weakened. 346 00:19:45,920 --> 00:19:50,520 And and then of course, there is the possibility that the regime 347 00:19:50,520 --> 00:19:54,040 might actually collapse. Now, if it collapsed, what would 348 00:19:54,040 --> 00:19:57,520 replace it? Well, probably chaos because I 349 00:19:57,520 --> 00:19:59,960 think Sekunda was saying this is earlier. 350 00:19:59,960 --> 00:20:05,880 You know, you, it's, you cannot see a way in which the Islamic 351 00:20:05,880 --> 00:20:09,960 Republic collapses. And what you get in its, in its 352 00:20:09,960 --> 00:20:12,880 place is some kind of marvellous democratic system. 353 00:20:12,960 --> 00:20:16,680 You know, you might get a coup or you might get complete 354 00:20:16,680 --> 00:20:19,600 disorder. So a lot of it depends on, on 355 00:20:19,800 --> 00:20:24,440 what the people in charge are afraid of and what the, you 356 00:20:24,440 --> 00:20:28,000 know, what kind of fractures there are within the Islamic 357 00:20:28,000 --> 00:20:31,840 Republic between the army and the, and the, and the 358 00:20:31,840 --> 00:20:35,880 Revolutionary Guards. And a lot of this we just don't 359 00:20:35,880 --> 00:20:37,920 know. And, and at the beginning we 360 00:20:37,920 --> 00:20:39,440 mentioned this meeting with Russia. 361 00:20:39,440 --> 00:20:42,600 I mean, Russia could in theory completely change the game, 362 00:20:42,600 --> 00:20:44,760 couldn't they? Because they could supply Iran 363 00:20:44,760 --> 00:20:46,680 with more weapons. It doesn't look like that's 364 00:20:46,680 --> 00:20:51,200 going to happen. President Putin has quite a good 365 00:20:51,200 --> 00:20:55,280 relationship with Netanyahu and with the Israelis, and he 366 00:20:55,280 --> 00:20:58,320 absolutely, and he also has another war to fight to 367 00:20:58,320 --> 00:21:00,400 remember. He's been getting the drones 368 00:21:00,400 --> 00:21:02,920 from Iran. Although the Iranian drones 369 00:21:03,400 --> 00:21:08,760 which are used to to fight in Ukraine, they now produce them 370 00:21:08,760 --> 00:21:12,360 inside Russia. So, yes, he could do that, but 371 00:21:12,360 --> 00:21:14,760 nothing indicates that he wants to do that. 372 00:21:15,440 --> 00:21:21,440 Nothing indicates that he feels that the Iranian cause is worth 373 00:21:21,440 --> 00:21:26,600 a lot of expenditure of diplomatic and financial capital 374 00:21:26,600 --> 00:21:28,640 at all. I think what he would like would 375 00:21:28,640 --> 00:21:31,360 be some kind of negotiation. That was what he's been 376 00:21:31,360 --> 00:21:35,800 indicating today in his meeting with the with the Iranian 377 00:21:35,800 --> 00:21:39,400 foreign minister. And is it conceivable that Iran 378 00:21:39,400 --> 00:21:43,920 could enter negotiations without hitting back or first or, or or 379 00:21:43,920 --> 00:21:46,960 do they have to do that to save face effectively? 380 00:21:48,280 --> 00:21:52,760 I think that they would be more likely to hit back in some way 381 00:21:52,760 --> 00:21:55,720 first because not just about saving face, it's also about 382 00:21:55,720 --> 00:21:59,560 negotiating from what appears to be a position of strength. 383 00:22:00,160 --> 00:22:03,960 And yet it is quite clear and everybody knows that the 384 00:22:03,960 --> 00:22:06,840 Iranians will not be negotiating from a position of strength. 385 00:22:06,840 --> 00:22:10,040 They'll be negotiating from a position of weakness because 386 00:22:10,040 --> 00:22:12,280 this war has weakened them thoroughly. 387 00:22:12,640 --> 00:22:16,120 So I think that they will be reaching out at, you know, the 388 00:22:16,120 --> 00:22:20,840 meeting with the Russians today. There's it's they're trying to 389 00:22:20,840 --> 00:22:25,720 build up this kind of greater diplomatic strength, which would 390 00:22:25,720 --> 00:22:28,560 compensate for their military weakness. 391 00:22:28,960 --> 00:22:31,320 But the problem is what would they be negotiating for? 392 00:22:31,720 --> 00:22:36,280 Because President Trump has said 0 enrichment and the Israelis 393 00:22:36,280 --> 00:22:39,280 are saying an end to their ballistic missile program. 394 00:22:39,640 --> 00:22:43,800 Now, that leaves them extremely weakened in the region and as a 395 00:22:44,760 --> 00:22:48,120 as a, as a government, as a regime, because what sovereignty 396 00:22:48,120 --> 00:22:51,920 would the country have if it cannot have any effective 397 00:22:52,160 --> 00:22:55,520 military force, not just a nuclear program, but a military 398 00:22:55,520 --> 00:22:59,640 force that's the basic on basis on which most countries operate, 399 00:22:59,640 --> 00:23:03,160 that they can defend themselves. Iran, at the moment, it seems, 400 00:23:03,160 --> 00:23:05,200 can't defend itself. So they're an extremely 401 00:23:05,200 --> 00:23:07,920 difficult situation when it comes to diplomacy as well. 402 00:23:08,320 --> 00:23:10,320 Just finally, Secunda from from Israel. 403 00:23:10,320 --> 00:23:13,720 I mean, when I was in Israel a couple of weeks ago, there were 404 00:23:13,720 --> 00:23:16,560 more voices of criticism of Netanyahu. 405 00:23:16,560 --> 00:23:20,400 And politically, the voices of Netanyahu against Netanyahu have 406 00:23:20,400 --> 00:23:23,560 been very, very consistent. People are still very angry with 407 00:23:23,560 --> 00:23:26,920 him, regardless of what's been going on in Gaza. 408 00:23:27,080 --> 00:23:31,440 Has has he helped himself and shored up his position 409 00:23:31,840 --> 00:23:34,680 politically by extending the war in Iran? 410 00:23:36,640 --> 00:23:38,960 Yes, I think he has. I mean, I was looking at some 411 00:23:38,960 --> 00:23:42,240 reports suggesting that Netanyahu is currently more 412 00:23:42,240 --> 00:23:45,320 popular than he's been at any stage since October the 7th 413 00:23:45,320 --> 00:23:49,000 when, you know, his popularity took a massive, massive dip. 414 00:23:49,960 --> 00:23:52,280 You know, it's interesting. Some of those figures 415 00:23:52,280 --> 00:23:55,640 politically, for example, who have been very critical of 416 00:23:55,640 --> 00:23:58,880 Netanyahu and have been associated with the the protest 417 00:23:58,880 --> 00:24:03,080 movement against him, Yaya Galan, for example, who's a a 418 00:24:03,080 --> 00:24:07,760 leading left wing politician. I saw him at the the the of an 419 00:24:07,760 --> 00:24:11,680 Iranian missile attack and I asked him what his thoughts 420 00:24:11,680 --> 00:24:13,880 were. And he said he said no, we 421 00:24:13,880 --> 00:24:15,840 aren't supportive of the war with Iran. 422 00:24:16,080 --> 00:24:19,600 Because I believe that there was no choice about this, that he's 423 00:24:19,640 --> 00:24:25,760 remained a critic of Netanyahu. But certainly, I think that's 424 00:24:25,760 --> 00:24:29,560 representative of the vast majority of people who are 425 00:24:29,560 --> 00:24:31,960 opposed to Netanyahu, that they might not like him, they might 426 00:24:31,960 --> 00:24:35,840 not necessarily trust him, but they they support this war and 427 00:24:35,840 --> 00:24:38,760 they believe that the intelligence that led to it was 428 00:24:38,760 --> 00:24:42,440 correct because it was furnished by not just Netanyahu, but by 429 00:24:42,720 --> 00:24:47,000 the Israeli army and security services who they do have more 430 00:24:47,000 --> 00:24:48,640 faith in. Interestingly, I was just 431 00:24:48,640 --> 00:24:51,800 speaking to earlier today actually with a father of one of 432 00:24:51,800 --> 00:24:55,800 the the Israeli hostages who's still in Gaza, someone who's 433 00:24:55,800 --> 00:24:58,600 been also very critical of Netanyahu. 434 00:24:58,880 --> 00:25:01,880 He too, you know, didn't think that, that, that he thought that 435 00:25:01,880 --> 00:25:05,840 the war in Iran was, was, was justified, but he was upset and, 436 00:25:05,840 --> 00:25:09,600 and, and angry that the, the cases of the, the hostages, 437 00:25:09,800 --> 00:25:13,600 their plight has been very much overshadowed and clearly 438 00:25:13,600 --> 00:25:17,840 doesn't, doesn't seem much of A priority for the government and 439 00:25:17,840 --> 00:25:21,240 for Netanyahu at this stage. And it's kind of fallen a bit 440 00:25:21,240 --> 00:25:23,640 away from public discourse as well. 441 00:25:24,520 --> 00:25:28,000 And, and of course, you know, the civilians living in, in 442 00:25:28,000 --> 00:25:31,200 Gaza, for ordinary people there, the situation remains 443 00:25:31,200 --> 00:25:34,800 absolutely, absolutely awful. I mean, the, the death toll, the 444 00:25:34,800 --> 00:25:39,400 daily death toll, frankly in, in, in Gaza completely out 445 00:25:39,400 --> 00:25:43,040 shadows anything that we're seeing anywhere else in this 446 00:25:43,040 --> 00:25:45,600 troubled region. It's not getting the kind of 447 00:25:45,600 --> 00:25:48,960 focus and headlines that it, it once was. 448 00:25:48,960 --> 00:25:52,480 But it's it the situation on the ground there is much, much, much 449 00:25:52,480 --> 00:25:54,240 worse than than than anywhere else and. 450 00:25:55,040 --> 00:25:57,080 And Lindsay, I mean, internationally, I mean, 451 00:25:57,080 --> 00:26:00,120 obviously again, Netanyahu was facing a lot of criticism from 452 00:26:00,120 --> 00:26:03,920 Britain and France and Canada over Gaza. 453 00:26:04,360 --> 00:26:08,680 The, the British statement on the Iranian bombing over the 454 00:26:08,680 --> 00:26:11,840 weekend was, well, I mean, it, it was just a sort of a 455 00:26:11,840 --> 00:26:14,040 statement of fact. It wasn't really expressing any 456 00:26:14,040 --> 00:26:17,440 opinion one way or another. Has, has, has Trump managed to 457 00:26:17,440 --> 00:26:19,920 pull, you know, to silence Britain and pull them back in 458 00:26:20,120 --> 00:26:21,720 behind? Look, I think that there's been 459 00:26:21,720 --> 00:26:26,560 a massive outbreak of hypocrisy because the Europeans and also 460 00:26:26,560 --> 00:26:29,840 the Gulf Arab countries and so on, I will say that they were 461 00:26:29,840 --> 00:26:32,440 against this. And I think that a lot of people 462 00:26:32,440 --> 00:26:35,760 within those, within those governments are breathing a sigh 463 00:26:35,760 --> 00:26:39,760 of relief, thinking, oh, jolly good, they've set back the 464 00:26:39,960 --> 00:26:43,640 Iranian nuclear program or destroyed the nuclear program. 465 00:26:44,080 --> 00:26:47,320 But then there will be other voices within those countries 466 00:26:47,320 --> 00:26:49,200 say, but what is the cost of this? 467 00:26:49,680 --> 00:26:52,360 And the cost is international law. 468 00:26:52,360 --> 00:26:56,840 Do you remember you went back to Iraq in 2003? 469 00:26:57,120 --> 00:27:01,480 Do you remember there were weeks of going through the UN and 470 00:27:01,480 --> 00:27:05,120 talking about the legality and UN Security Council resolutions 471 00:27:05,400 --> 00:27:08,760 and also trying to get some kind of international consensus? 472 00:27:09,120 --> 00:27:11,160 All of that is gone by the board. 473 00:27:11,160 --> 00:27:15,480 We're now in a world where Vladimir Putin can invade 474 00:27:15,480 --> 00:27:19,200 Ukraine and he just does it, where the Israelis can attack 475 00:27:19,200 --> 00:27:22,640 Iran and then the Americans can attack Iran as well. 476 00:27:22,960 --> 00:27:26,560 And, you know, international law, the, you know, the system 477 00:27:26,560 --> 00:27:28,960 where you had some kind of rules where things went through the 478 00:27:28,960 --> 00:27:33,480 Security Council, all of that is gone now When you have the 479 00:27:33,480 --> 00:27:36,280 Europeans who are choosing, you know, not to say very much or 480 00:27:36,280 --> 00:27:38,760 just to say a little because actually they're kind of a 481 00:27:38,760 --> 00:27:41,000 little bit in favour. I'm also just a little bit 482 00:27:41,000 --> 00:27:43,080 worried about it. What does that mean? 483 00:27:43,200 --> 00:27:47,240 It's about the future as well. So what about when China invades 484 00:27:47,240 --> 00:27:49,480 Taiwan? What happens then? 485 00:27:49,600 --> 00:27:52,760 What is there? Why shouldn't they, given that 486 00:27:52,760 --> 00:27:56,200 the Russians have done what they wanted to do, the Israelis and 487 00:27:56,200 --> 00:27:58,080 the Americans have done what they wanted to do? 488 00:27:58,400 --> 00:28:01,920 And these statements, these sort of, you know, milk toast 489 00:28:02,080 --> 00:28:06,080 statements from from the Europeans, it just makes them 490 00:28:06,080 --> 00:28:10,320 look, she's anonymous and weak. Yes, I mean, Mark Rutter, the 491 00:28:10,320 --> 00:28:13,320 NATO chief, has apparently just said that the US strikes on Iran 492 00:28:13,480 --> 00:28:15,760 were not in violation of international law. 493 00:28:15,960 --> 00:28:18,760 I've no idea on what basis he's saying that there was no UN 494 00:28:18,760 --> 00:28:20,800 resolution, there was no imminent threat. 495 00:28:21,280 --> 00:28:24,440 You know, how could it possibly be in line with international 496 00:28:24,440 --> 00:28:27,240 law? I don't know, but you can find a 497 00:28:27,240 --> 00:28:28,880 lawyer to tell you anything, can't you? 498 00:28:28,920 --> 00:28:31,800 Which was the kind of argument which we, you know, which we had 499 00:28:31,800 --> 00:28:36,840 before the before the Iraq war. And and just finally on Trump 500 00:28:36,840 --> 00:28:40,920 then, I mean, you know, obviously he's impossible to 501 00:28:40,920 --> 00:28:45,560 predict, but do you think he's likely to do anything more 502 00:28:45,560 --> 00:28:49,520 militarily? Look, you know, I can predict 503 00:28:49,520 --> 00:28:53,360 anything apart from the future, and I certainly can't predict 504 00:28:53,560 --> 00:28:55,240 what Donald Trump is going to do. 505 00:28:55,240 --> 00:28:57,720 I mean, he said, you know, he said himself last week, doesn't 506 00:28:57,720 --> 00:28:58,960 he? Nobody knows what I'm going to 507 00:28:58,960 --> 00:29:01,280 do. I'd like to make up my mind a 508 00:29:01,280 --> 00:29:04,680 second before I do it. So if he can't even predict what 509 00:29:04,680 --> 00:29:06,480 he's going to do himself, how could I? 510 00:29:06,880 --> 00:29:10,280 But obviously, the Americans have a choice at this point, 511 00:29:10,480 --> 00:29:14,200 which is to pull right back, leave it to the Israelis to do 512 00:29:14,200 --> 00:29:18,680 whatever we can. The Islamic Republic possibly, 513 00:29:19,280 --> 00:29:25,360 you know, 'cause it's collapse and push for negotiations, which 514 00:29:25,360 --> 00:29:28,760 is what he has indicated that he wants to do. 515 00:29:29,200 --> 00:29:33,080 But if the Iranians do hit back, and if, for example, they kill 516 00:29:33,080 --> 00:29:36,920 Americans somewhere, then there are going to be voices around 517 00:29:37,440 --> 00:29:41,000 Donald Trump to say, well, you know, we need to bomb something 518 00:29:41,000 --> 00:29:42,680 else. We need to go in again, we need 519 00:29:42,680 --> 00:29:45,080 to do more. And that's what his sort of 520 00:29:45,080 --> 00:29:48,160 isolationist MAGA wing, the people like Steve Bannon and so 521 00:29:48,160 --> 00:29:50,960 on, are worried about. They're worried about the 522 00:29:50,960 --> 00:29:53,920 Americans getting pulled into a wider war. 523 00:29:54,200 --> 00:29:56,080 He has said he doesn't want to do that. 524 00:29:56,360 --> 00:29:59,440 But one of the things we've learned over the years is that 525 00:29:59,440 --> 00:30:02,600 any kind of military intervention, it has unintended 526 00:30:02,680 --> 00:30:05,560 consequences, and we just don't know what those are going to be. 527 00:30:05,920 --> 00:30:07,200 Indeed. And I mean, it's worth 528 00:30:07,200 --> 00:30:10,960 mentioning that it it appears that Trump had lunch with Steve 529 00:30:10,960 --> 00:30:13,480 Bannon on the day that he ordered the strikes. 530 00:30:13,480 --> 00:30:17,160 And the American reaction here has been quite, quite remarkable 531 00:30:17,160 --> 00:30:18,120 really. And it's it's quite 532 00:30:18,120 --> 00:30:21,240 illustrative, I think, of how how weak Congress is at the 533 00:30:21,240 --> 00:30:24,080 moment and that there are a lot of Democrats who were saying 534 00:30:24,080 --> 00:30:27,200 this was unconstitutional. The American president doesn't 535 00:30:27,200 --> 00:30:30,760 have the power to carry out this kind of military action without 536 00:30:30,760 --> 00:30:34,560 congressional approval. And some Republicans are saying 537 00:30:34,560 --> 00:30:36,800 the same thing, A very small, small number. 538 00:30:37,520 --> 00:30:40,680 But the president and the administration have absolutely 539 00:30:40,680 --> 00:30:43,560 no doubt that they were within their rights to do this. 540 00:30:43,560 --> 00:30:46,680 They're showing no sign of taking this to Congress in the 541 00:30:46,680 --> 00:30:49,680 near future. And so they will just carry on. 542 00:30:50,440 --> 00:30:51,960 We'll leave it there. Secunda. 543 00:30:51,960 --> 00:30:53,360 Lindsay, thank you very much indeed. 544 00:30:53,440 --> 00:30:55,480 That's the forecast. Until next time, bye bye.