1 00:00:00,040 --> 00:00:03,160 This trade war was the wrong trade war for the United States 2 00:00:03,160 --> 00:00:07,040 to start a fight to start with. My concern is that the greatest 3 00:00:07,080 --> 00:00:11,480 predictability in the world of today is the unpredictability of 4 00:00:11,480 --> 00:00:14,360 the United States, and the greatest certainty in the world 5 00:00:14,360 --> 00:00:17,760 of today is the uncertainty of the United States and 6 00:00:18,000 --> 00:00:26,360 unfortunately, President Trump. Hello and welcome to the 7 00:00:26,360 --> 00:00:29,120 forecast. After months of a vicious cycle 8 00:00:29,120 --> 00:00:33,320 of mutual retaliation, as Xi Jinping has put it, Donald Trump 9 00:00:33,320 --> 00:00:36,160 and the Chinese leaders seem to have come to a truce in their 10 00:00:36,160 --> 00:00:38,040 first meeting in nearly six years. 11 00:00:38,280 --> 00:00:41,040 Speaking in South Korea, XI agreed to stop withholding 12 00:00:41,040 --> 00:00:44,840 China's rare earth exports for a year and start buying soybeans 13 00:00:44,840 --> 00:00:48,000 from America again, while Donald Trump said that he would reduce 14 00:00:48,000 --> 00:00:51,400 tariffs and suspend port fees on Chinese ships. 15 00:00:51,720 --> 00:00:55,200 But how long will this amicable relationship last? 16 00:00:55,640 --> 00:00:59,360 Will all of this signal a closer tie between the world's two 17 00:00:59,360 --> 00:01:01,920 biggest economies? Well, to discuss this, I'm 18 00:01:01,920 --> 00:01:04,599 joined now by Victor GAO, vice president of the Centre for 19 00:01:04,599 --> 00:01:07,760 China and Globalization in Beijing, and Doctor Yujia, 20 00:01:08,000 --> 00:01:10,800 senior research fellow on China at Chatham House. 21 00:01:10,800 --> 00:01:13,680 Welcome to you both. Let me start with you, Yujia. 22 00:01:14,760 --> 00:01:18,160 Is the trade war over? Has it been suspended? 23 00:01:18,240 --> 00:01:23,120 And who's won, if anyone? Well, the truth is it's not over 24 00:01:23,120 --> 00:01:25,320 yet. What we have right now is a 25 00:01:25,320 --> 00:01:28,760 temporary ceasefire between the world two largest economies. 26 00:01:28,840 --> 00:01:32,200 Really, if you're judging from the details the two side has 27 00:01:32,200 --> 00:01:35,360 been offered for now, I think we'll come to the stage that 28 00:01:35,680 --> 00:01:38,680 both end and realize how difficult it is and how 29 00:01:38,680 --> 00:01:43,360 dependent each other is towards the economy and has there's a 30 00:01:43,360 --> 00:01:45,440 necessary ceasefire for the moment. 31 00:01:45,720 --> 00:01:49,040 However, I think really judging from the words of very cautious 32 00:01:49,040 --> 00:01:53,160 words from the Chinese state media here is to say the 33 00:01:53,160 --> 00:01:56,000 protracted competition with United States difficult 34 00:01:56,000 --> 00:01:58,960 relationship between Beijing and Washington is really here to 35 00:01:58,960 --> 00:02:01,400 stay. So I think what we have today is 36 00:02:01,400 --> 00:02:04,800 both the leader realise politically it's important to 37 00:02:04,800 --> 00:02:09,039 have this temporary ceasefire. Victor Donald Trump after the 38 00:02:09,039 --> 00:02:11,160 meeting said on Air Force One that the meeting had been 39 00:02:11,240 --> 00:02:14,480 amazing. Was it amazing for Xi Jinping? 40 00:02:17,400 --> 00:02:20,640 No, definitely not. This trade war was the wrong 41 00:02:20,640 --> 00:02:24,000 trade war for the United States to start the fight to start 42 00:02:24,000 --> 00:02:26,320 with. China is on the receiving side, 43 00:02:26,360 --> 00:02:30,680 and whatever China's doing is in retaliation against the wrongful 44 00:02:30,680 --> 00:02:35,360 acts by the United States. And now the United States have 45 00:02:35,360 --> 00:02:39,120 felt the heat from the Chinese side has blinked again and 46 00:02:39,120 --> 00:02:41,200 again. I think the United States 47 00:02:41,480 --> 00:02:45,080 realized that it is futile for the United States trying to 48 00:02:46,120 --> 00:02:49,480 achieve a chokehold against China because China has enough 49 00:02:49,480 --> 00:02:53,360 wherewithal to fight back. This is the reason why the two 50 00:02:53,360 --> 00:02:56,480 sides have decided to back off from each other, at least 51 00:02:56,480 --> 00:02:59,360 temporarily. And I think going forward, the 52 00:02:59,360 --> 00:03:02,560 litmus test is whether the United States really orders 53 00:03:02,760 --> 00:03:06,560 whatever it has agreed in its summit meeting in the Republic 54 00:03:06,560 --> 00:03:09,280 of Korea. And that will decide whether 55 00:03:09,320 --> 00:03:14,600 China will again retaliate, retaliate against whatever the 56 00:03:14,600 --> 00:03:18,040 United States may want to change from what they agreed in South 57 00:03:18,040 --> 00:03:21,520 Korea. But as Julia said, they need 58 00:03:21,520 --> 00:03:25,320 each other and hasn't, you know, really the saga, the up and down 59 00:03:25,320 --> 00:03:28,040 the trade war of the last nine months since Trump took office 60 00:03:28,040 --> 00:03:31,240 again shown us, Victor, that actually they do rely on each 61 00:03:31,240 --> 00:03:33,360 other. China needs America's markets. 62 00:03:33,560 --> 00:03:35,560 America needs China's rare earth metals. 63 00:03:35,560 --> 00:03:37,640 Just, you know, to mention two items. 64 00:03:39,120 --> 00:03:41,560 Absolutely. China and the United States can 65 00:03:41,840 --> 00:03:45,640 do each other better if they really respect each other and 66 00:03:45,640 --> 00:03:49,080 deal with each other as equal. If the United States wants to 67 00:03:49,080 --> 00:03:52,760 bully China and try to suffocate China, first of all, it will not 68 00:03:52,760 --> 00:03:55,640 succeed. Secondly, it will really suffer 69 00:03:55,640 --> 00:04:00,360 the retaliation from China. China has never initiated this 70 00:04:00,360 --> 00:04:02,320 round of trade war or tariff war. 71 00:04:02,520 --> 00:04:05,960 It is always the United States which wants to fight against 72 00:04:05,960 --> 00:04:10,360 China, and I hope by now Washington has fully realized it 73 00:04:10,360 --> 00:04:15,040 is futile for the United States trying to suppress China by such 74 00:04:15,280 --> 00:04:19,480 wrongful acts of tariff war. And China has demonstrated its 75 00:04:19,480 --> 00:04:24,040 consistency in terms of its position and policy of fighting 76 00:04:24,040 --> 00:04:26,760 back whenever the United States wants to bully China. 77 00:04:27,080 --> 00:04:31,520 And China demands to be treated as a complete equal partner with 78 00:04:31,520 --> 00:04:34,640 the United States, rather than anything less than an equal 79 00:04:34,640 --> 00:04:38,440 partner. Yujia, do you think that China 80 00:04:38,440 --> 00:04:42,640 holds stronger hands in this tussle or America? 81 00:04:42,640 --> 00:04:45,080 Or are they literally both equal, although they want 82 00:04:45,080 --> 00:04:48,760 different things obviously? Well, I think they're actually 83 00:04:48,800 --> 00:04:51,520 mostly equal and obviously they want different things. 84 00:04:51,560 --> 00:04:54,600 And 1st of most for China, I think what they really want is 85 00:04:54,600 --> 00:04:58,480 to increasing its economic strength and also try to enhance 86 00:04:58,480 --> 00:05:01,360 in this capability on high end technology. 87 00:05:01,480 --> 00:05:04,160 That is to say, it can't withstand geopolitical pressure 88 00:05:04,400 --> 00:05:07,120 from the United States and also from the connected W. 89 00:05:07,520 --> 00:05:12,320 Now secondly, I think in here as I said earlier, politically both 90 00:05:12,320 --> 00:05:15,880 leader won't have some kind of temporary truth and for Donald 91 00:05:15,880 --> 00:05:19,800 Trump and he's able to justify to his domestic audience that he 92 00:05:19,800 --> 00:05:23,080 has managed his relationship with China, managed tariff 93 00:05:23,080 --> 00:05:25,040 issue. Whereas I think ready for 94 00:05:25,040 --> 00:05:28,960 Beijing, it's really a matter of taking this as a stalling 95 00:05:28,960 --> 00:05:33,240 approach, of taking a longer time to buy his time and try to 96 00:05:33,240 --> 00:05:35,920 strengthen his own domestic economic resilience. 97 00:05:35,920 --> 00:05:39,280 So I think both want this ceasefire, but for very 98 00:05:39,280 --> 00:05:42,560 different reasons in here. Do you think the whole trade war 99 00:05:42,560 --> 00:05:45,520 the last 9-10 months was completely pointless Juja? 100 00:05:47,160 --> 00:05:52,320 Well, no, it's, I think surely it is really a sense of testing 101 00:05:52,320 --> 00:05:55,120 who has the strengths and who blink 1st. 102 00:05:55,160 --> 00:05:59,720 And obviously Beijing has really taken a playbook provided by 103 00:05:59,720 --> 00:06:03,520 United States, that is to say using the maximum pressure to 104 00:06:03,520 --> 00:06:06,280 your opposition to achieve what I want. 105 00:06:06,360 --> 00:06:08,600 And I think that's the playbook Beijing has learned. 106 00:06:08,600 --> 00:06:13,280 So it put in a way that I think United States has inadvertently 107 00:06:13,600 --> 00:06:16,400 become the best teacher for China and how to be a 108 00:06:16,400 --> 00:06:19,480 superpower. Victor, what's your response to 109 00:06:19,480 --> 00:06:22,480 that? Well, China does not need an 110 00:06:22,480 --> 00:06:25,000 additional teacher. China does not want to be a 111 00:06:25,000 --> 00:06:28,040 superpower China. China just wants to be treated 112 00:06:28,040 --> 00:06:31,440 as an equal and on fair basis. Hang on a minute, I'm going to 113 00:06:31,440 --> 00:06:33,320 interrupt you. Then you said China doesn't want 114 00:06:33,320 --> 00:06:36,160 to be a superpower. Come on, China wants to be a 115 00:06:36,160 --> 00:06:38,040 superpower. China is a superpower. 116 00:06:39,360 --> 00:06:41,520 A superpower by Chinese definition. 117 00:06:41,520 --> 00:06:45,320 There's some country very abrasive, very much domineering 118 00:06:45,320 --> 00:06:49,280 against others, and never treats other countries as an equal. 119 00:06:49,440 --> 00:06:53,640 Now, this trade war or the tariff war is completely 120 00:06:53,640 --> 00:06:56,480 pointless. It shows that the United States 121 00:06:56,480 --> 00:06:59,640 cannot win this trade war. And I hope President Trump will 122 00:06:59,640 --> 00:07:03,160 tell the American people that it is the American people who will 123 00:07:03,160 --> 00:07:06,760 eventually pay the bulk of all the tariffs charged by the 124 00:07:06,760 --> 00:07:09,840 United States against all the other countries, including 125 00:07:09,840 --> 00:07:12,400 against China. China will never pay a single 126 00:07:12,400 --> 00:07:15,440 penny of the tariff charged by the United States against 127 00:07:15,440 --> 00:07:17,680 China's export to the United States. 128 00:07:17,920 --> 00:07:22,120 Therefore, I truly believe this trade war is really Much Ado 129 00:07:22,120 --> 00:07:24,640 about nothing. It demonstrates the United 130 00:07:24,640 --> 00:07:26,680 States doesn't care about free trade. 131 00:07:26,880 --> 00:07:30,760 It really wants to throw a wedge into free trade. 132 00:07:31,000 --> 00:07:34,840 For what? For damaging and growing its own 133 00:07:34,840 --> 00:07:40,080 reputation and respectability. How could he be so sure that 134 00:07:40,080 --> 00:07:41,520 China will go on? Go on. 135 00:07:41,520 --> 00:07:43,960 Yuja, please weigh in. Sorry, can, if I may, if I may 136 00:07:43,960 --> 00:07:47,400 add in here, I mean it's not to disregard or disagree with 137 00:07:48,200 --> 00:07:51,080 Doctor GAO in here. I think it's what we have in 138 00:07:51,080 --> 00:07:56,000 here right now is a finally AG2 framework and has been admitted 139 00:07:56,000 --> 00:07:58,360 by United States. Really, I'm speaking from the 140 00:07:58,400 --> 00:08:01,080 evidence from the tweet that has been sent at the White House 141 00:08:01,080 --> 00:08:04,440 this morning by saying the G2 meeting is about to start. 142 00:08:04,760 --> 00:08:08,400 So I think really after this few months of trade war, United 143 00:08:08,400 --> 00:08:11,240 States certainly has treated China as that sense of 144 00:08:11,320 --> 00:08:14,080 undisputed equal. So I think that's what China 145 00:08:14,080 --> 00:08:17,120 want and I think that's what Doctor Doctor GAO was saying 146 00:08:17,120 --> 00:08:19,400 about regarding the respect. I think it's that respect 147 00:08:19,400 --> 00:08:21,640 element what they have as of today. 148 00:08:22,960 --> 00:08:26,600 Victor GAO, you've been quite rude about America and its 149 00:08:26,960 --> 00:08:30,120 intentions in the trade war, but Donald Trump has been nothing 150 00:08:30,120 --> 00:08:32,480 but polite about your leader, Xi Jinping. 151 00:08:32,480 --> 00:08:35,520 You called him a strong leader, a great leader. 152 00:08:35,720 --> 00:08:38,799 Why doesn't Xi Jinping return the compliment? 153 00:08:38,799 --> 00:08:40,440 Why don't you return the compliment? 154 00:08:41,960 --> 00:08:45,240 I always have the highest respect for the American people 155 00:08:45,240 --> 00:08:48,200 and for the ingenuity and the creativity of the United States 156 00:08:48,240 --> 00:08:51,120 as a nation. Now, sometimes I'm critical of 157 00:08:51,120 --> 00:08:53,440 President Trump and his trade policies. 158 00:08:53,600 --> 00:08:57,200 That doesn't mean that Victor GAO has any lack of respect for 159 00:08:57,200 --> 00:09:01,360 the American people. Now for President Trump, while I 160 00:09:01,360 --> 00:09:05,240 applaud the fact that he used the nice words, present words 161 00:09:05,240 --> 00:09:09,640 about China against for President Xi Jinping, we always 162 00:09:09,640 --> 00:09:14,240 need to watch whatever he walks and we cannot purely depend on 163 00:09:14,240 --> 00:09:17,480 whatever he talks. Therefore, this is the time to 164 00:09:17,480 --> 00:09:20,760 see whether he talks to talk and walks the walk. 165 00:09:21,000 --> 00:09:23,840 And this will be the litmus test, I think. 166 00:09:24,080 --> 00:09:27,680 And my concern is that the greatest predictability in the 167 00:09:27,680 --> 00:09:32,200 world of today is the unpredictable unpredictability 168 00:09:32,200 --> 00:09:35,160 of the United States, and the greatest certainty in the world 169 00:09:35,160 --> 00:09:38,480 of today is the uncertainty of the United States and 170 00:09:39,560 --> 00:09:43,720 unfortunately, President Trump. There are many things that 171 00:09:43,720 --> 00:09:47,240 Americans admire about China. You know, I myself was 172 00:09:47,240 --> 00:09:51,080 travelling through China for quite a long time in 1981 when 173 00:09:51,080 --> 00:09:52,560 it was a very, very different country. 174 00:09:52,560 --> 00:09:54,880 And as I've seen the extraordinary transformation of 175 00:09:54,880 --> 00:09:58,000 China, it is, it's, it's mind blowing, literally, it's 176 00:09:58,000 --> 00:10:00,680 extraordinary. I wonder what you, Victor GAO, 177 00:10:00,680 --> 00:10:06,280 admire about America. Well, I have the highest 178 00:10:06,680 --> 00:10:09,800 admiration you can think about for the American people for 179 00:10:09,800 --> 00:10:13,200 their creativity, resourcefulness, as well As for 180 00:10:13,200 --> 00:10:19,440 their great natural endowment and very unmatched geopolitical 181 00:10:19,440 --> 00:10:22,760 positions in the northern parts of the United States. 182 00:10:23,000 --> 00:10:26,960 And I think whatever China is doing is trying its best to make 183 00:10:27,360 --> 00:10:32,440 the United States love peace more rather than try to resolve 184 00:10:32,440 --> 00:10:36,840 to war to solve any problem between any other with any other 185 00:10:36,840 --> 00:10:39,680 country. This is why China never looks 186 00:10:39,680 --> 00:10:43,440 down on the United States and China always wants to engage 187 00:10:43,440 --> 00:10:45,920 with the United States as an equal partner. 188 00:10:46,240 --> 00:10:48,920 And we truly believe that if China and the United States can 189 00:10:48,920 --> 00:10:53,520 this can set their sights of the same major issue in the world, 190 00:10:53,760 --> 00:10:56,840 there will be nothing in this world which cannot be resolved 191 00:10:57,320 --> 00:11:00,800 for our mutual benefits as well As for the benefit of mankind as 192 00:11:00,800 --> 00:11:04,080 a whole. Jujia, I mean, Viktor Gal loves 193 00:11:04,080 --> 00:11:06,800 to talk about, you know, the China and peace and how it's a 194 00:11:06,800 --> 00:11:10,040 peace loving country that wants to spread peace around the 195 00:11:10,040 --> 00:11:11,840 world. But when you look at China's 196 00:11:11,840 --> 00:11:16,080 military buildup, which is also extraordinary, especially it's 197 00:11:16,080 --> 00:11:19,400 naval build up in the region, what is what story does that 198 00:11:19,400 --> 00:11:22,680 tell you? Well, there's a plenty of 199 00:11:22,680 --> 00:11:25,480 stories in here. I think for for the first layer 200 00:11:25,480 --> 00:11:29,040 is really that sense of China's obsession regarding neighboring 201 00:11:29,040 --> 00:11:32,240 countries because this is the country's share border with a 14 202 00:11:32,560 --> 00:11:35,280 different countries and obviously having secure border 203 00:11:35,600 --> 00:11:39,200 and to couple to be paired with the modern army and I think 204 00:11:39,200 --> 00:11:43,120 that's absolutely necessary. Now secondly, I think also given 205 00:11:43,120 --> 00:11:45,800 Chinese foreign policies obsession towards sovereignty 206 00:11:45,800 --> 00:11:48,960 and territorial integrity. So when they come to issues 207 00:11:48,960 --> 00:11:52,040 related to Taiwan and when they come to issues ready to solve 208 00:11:52,040 --> 00:11:56,040 China Sea of course and China will show a very assertive 209 00:11:56,040 --> 00:11:59,400 stance on that. So I think it's just the the way 210 00:11:59,400 --> 00:12:02,520 how the Chinese foreign policy and also the military contact as 211 00:12:02,520 --> 00:12:05,720 operate as it is today. And of course, I think for many 212 00:12:06,040 --> 00:12:10,520 and particularly among the G7 countries when I look this and 213 00:12:10,520 --> 00:12:13,920 they would consider this probably bring more fear than 214 00:12:13,920 --> 00:12:16,720 admiration regarding China's military capability. 215 00:12:17,760 --> 00:12:19,720 What do you think? What do you think China wants to 216 00:12:19,720 --> 00:12:23,440 do with its military capability? What's the end goal here, Gigi? 217 00:12:23,480 --> 00:12:26,520 Well. The end goal is really about the 218 00:12:26,520 --> 00:12:29,560 deterrence to win the war without fighting. 219 00:12:29,640 --> 00:12:33,320 I mean, if we come back to a month ago was that gigantic 220 00:12:33,320 --> 00:12:36,000 military parade to be put forward at Tiananmen Square? 221 00:12:36,320 --> 00:12:39,440 And one thing has been quite clear is that the message has 222 00:12:39,440 --> 00:12:43,600 been clear there and that China does have the capability when 223 00:12:43,600 --> 00:12:45,280 they come to the military competition. 224 00:12:45,560 --> 00:12:47,240 Was United States always the others? 225 00:12:47,400 --> 00:12:50,600 However, whether China decided to use it, that's an entirely 226 00:12:50,600 --> 00:12:54,240 different matter. Victor GAO is Is that this 227 00:12:54,240 --> 00:12:57,920 parade of military hardware that we saw in Beijing, you know, is 228 00:12:57,920 --> 00:13:00,280 the language that comes out of your leader, Xi Jinping? 229 00:13:00,280 --> 00:13:03,960 Is that about respect? Is it about fear? 230 00:13:04,480 --> 00:13:06,840 Is it about domination in the region? 231 00:13:06,840 --> 00:13:10,720 What's it about? Well, the victory parade on 232 00:13:10,720 --> 00:13:14,480 September the third has only one purpose, that is to defend 233 00:13:14,640 --> 00:13:19,920 China's sovereignty and national territorial integrity and to 234 00:13:19,920 --> 00:13:23,800 make the United States and the American people love peace more 235 00:13:24,080 --> 00:13:27,240 than what they used to. And this is the only purpose. 236 00:13:27,240 --> 00:13:30,600 China's National Defence is not a measure up against any of our 237 00:13:30,600 --> 00:13:33,520 neighboring countries. It is a measuring up against 238 00:13:33,520 --> 00:13:36,120 only one country. That is the United States. 239 00:13:36,120 --> 00:13:38,760 And the only purpose of measuring up against the United 240 00:13:38,760 --> 00:13:42,680 States is to make sure that the United States will love peace 241 00:13:42,880 --> 00:13:48,840 and will no longer be happy to move to the gum and shoot from 242 00:13:48,840 --> 00:13:51,680 the hip, especially not vis A vis China. 243 00:13:51,680 --> 00:13:55,680 That's the only purpose. But hang on a minute, Victor. 244 00:13:55,680 --> 00:13:59,280 It is Chinese components that allow you, you know, the 245 00:13:59,280 --> 00:14:03,160 Russians to fire missiles and drones into Ukraine. 246 00:14:03,640 --> 00:14:07,440 China could stop the war in Ukraine today if Xi Jinping 247 00:14:07,680 --> 00:14:10,800 picked up the phone to Vladimir Putin and said, you know, we can 248 00:14:10,800 --> 00:14:13,160 be the best of friends, but you cannot wage this war. 249 00:14:13,240 --> 00:14:17,120 He has refused to do that. He has met Vladimir Putin 250 00:14:17,440 --> 00:14:19,960 together with the North Korean leader at that parade on the 3rd 251 00:14:19,960 --> 00:14:22,320 of September. I mean, these are not exactly 252 00:14:22,520 --> 00:14:28,240 peace loving signals, are they? You are wrong with due respect. 253 00:14:28,520 --> 00:14:34,320 If China supplies weapons to the Russian side, Russia would have 254 00:14:34,320 --> 00:14:37,360 won the war overnight. For example, China has this 255 00:14:37,360 --> 00:14:43,400 monster lethal anti drone weapon and system which can shoot down 256 00:14:43,680 --> 00:14:47,880 any or any group of drones en masse. 257 00:14:48,120 --> 00:14:51,040 And this is exactly what the Russians would need because 258 00:14:51,240 --> 00:14:55,320 drones launched and used by the Ukrainians have done havoc 259 00:14:55,640 --> 00:14:59,160 against the Russia not only inside the Ukraine but deep 260 00:14:59,160 --> 00:15:03,040 inside the Russia. This is ample proof to show that 261 00:15:03,040 --> 00:15:07,280 China does not supply weapons to either Russia or Ukraine. 262 00:15:07,520 --> 00:15:12,160 And if China supplies weapon to either side, that side receiving 263 00:15:12,160 --> 00:15:14,840 China weapon will win the war immediately. 264 00:15:16,960 --> 00:15:22,080 Juju is any of that right? Well, I think regarding the 265 00:15:22,360 --> 00:15:25,360 Russia, Ukraine and China, and that's an entire separate 266 00:15:25,360 --> 00:15:28,800 question, but what we can really judging from the meeting what we 267 00:15:28,800 --> 00:15:31,640 had today, I think President Trump even mentioned that was 268 00:15:31,640 --> 00:15:35,040 much hoping that can work together with China to resolve 269 00:15:35,040 --> 00:15:38,600 this war in Ukraine related matters. 270 00:15:38,880 --> 00:15:43,200 So let's see whether the G2, the framework which we just had this 271 00:15:43,200 --> 00:15:46,520 morning, we'll be able to solve the Ukraine Russia issue for 272 00:15:46,520 --> 00:15:48,160 now. But I think at the moment we 273 00:15:48,160 --> 00:15:51,320 have seen a lot of words floating around and very little 274 00:15:51,320 --> 00:15:54,720 deeds that how much, firstly Washington get involved and 275 00:15:54,720 --> 00:15:57,720 secondly, how much Beijing would like to get involved on European 276 00:15:57,720 --> 00:16:01,440 security architecture. But but if China was not 277 00:16:01,440 --> 00:16:07,000 providing the kind of non overtly non military aid to 278 00:16:07,000 --> 00:16:09,640 Russia that it's been providing, you know, for the last two years 279 00:16:09,640 --> 00:16:12,960 or 2 1/2 years of the war, do you think that Russia would not 280 00:16:12,960 --> 00:16:16,120 be able to conduct this war as it has done so far? 281 00:16:17,720 --> 00:16:20,800 Well, I think weapon is one thing, but another element in 282 00:16:20,800 --> 00:16:24,320 here is this regular trade between China and Russia and 283 00:16:24,320 --> 00:16:28,560 also the the volumes of trade and that Beijing has purchased 284 00:16:28,640 --> 00:16:33,360 from Russia that somehow give the bloodline of the to running 285 00:16:33,360 --> 00:16:35,560 the economy. So it's less about the weapon, 286 00:16:35,880 --> 00:16:38,400 but I think it's more about the trading relationship that 287 00:16:38,400 --> 00:16:42,000 Beijing has offered to Russia right now that seems to putting 288 00:16:42,080 --> 00:16:43,880 under the scope being further examined. 289 00:16:45,680 --> 00:16:50,440 But to go why is Xi Jinping so friendly with Kim Jong Un of 290 00:16:50,440 --> 00:16:52,840 North Korea and Vladimir Putin of Russia? 291 00:16:52,840 --> 00:16:56,640 I mean, if he is this great, amazing world leader as Trump 292 00:16:56,640 --> 00:16:58,920 has described him, surely he should be keeping a different 293 00:16:58,920 --> 00:17:03,760 kind of company. Well, for the record, China and 294 00:17:03,760 --> 00:17:08,960 DPRK have the only blood treaty between China and any other 295 00:17:08,960 --> 00:17:12,319 country. That means after the end of the 296 00:17:12,359 --> 00:17:17,560 Korean War, China and DPRK have signed mutual defence treaty 297 00:17:17,760 --> 00:17:21,319 whereby each side will need to come to the other side's defence 298 00:17:21,520 --> 00:17:26,160 if the other side is attacked. Now this treaty is automatically 299 00:17:26,160 --> 00:17:31,360 renewable after 20 years and it has never been terminated. 300 00:17:31,520 --> 00:17:36,160 That means between China and DPRK we do have this time 301 00:17:36,160 --> 00:17:40,880 honoured mutual defence treaty and China only has this defence 302 00:17:40,880 --> 00:17:43,960 treaty with DPRK, not with any other country. 303 00:17:44,240 --> 00:17:47,680 That means if any country wants to second guess China's 304 00:17:47,680 --> 00:17:52,920 determination to come to DPRK's aid if DPRK is attacked 305 00:17:53,000 --> 00:17:57,520 militarily, then please read the national and the mutual defence 306 00:17:57,520 --> 00:18:02,040 treaty between China and DPRK. Now between China and Russia, we 307 00:18:02,040 --> 00:18:04,240 engage in normal trade with each other. 308 00:18:04,480 --> 00:18:08,920 China will never allow any other country to disapprove or to 309 00:18:08,920 --> 00:18:13,440 disqualify China from engaging with any other country, 310 00:18:13,440 --> 00:18:17,920 including Russia, in normal trade relations unless it is 311 00:18:17,920 --> 00:18:21,040 being blocked by the United Nations Security Council. 312 00:18:21,200 --> 00:18:25,600 That is the only litmus test. China does not allow any 313 00:18:25,680 --> 00:18:29,600 sanction imposed by any other country except the sanctions 314 00:18:29,600 --> 00:18:32,400 blessed by the United Nations Security Council. 315 00:18:33,960 --> 00:18:36,320 I want to talk about nuclear weapons and nuclear testing a 316 00:18:36,320 --> 00:18:39,280 little bit, if I may. Donald Trump actually, to many 317 00:18:39,280 --> 00:18:42,480 people's surprise, also announced today on his way back 318 00:18:42,480 --> 00:18:46,640 to Washington that he wants to resume nuclear testing 319 00:18:46,760 --> 00:18:51,600 immediately after having not done so for 33 years. 320 00:18:52,120 --> 00:18:54,920 Now, what does Beijing make of that statement? 321 00:18:56,920 --> 00:19:00,400 Well, Beijing's policy about nuclear weapons and use of 322 00:19:00,400 --> 00:19:03,280 nuclear weapons and non use of nuclear weapons against non 323 00:19:03,280 --> 00:19:07,280 nuclear weapon countries or nuclear weapon free zones is 324 00:19:07,280 --> 00:19:10,240 well recorded. China will never use nuclear 325 00:19:10,240 --> 00:19:13,320 weapons against any other country ahead of time. 326 00:19:13,560 --> 00:19:17,680 And China will never allow any other country which uses nuclear 327 00:19:17,680 --> 00:19:22,000 weapon against China to survive China's nuclear retaliation. 328 00:19:22,280 --> 00:19:28,400 That means China has built up MAD capabilities to deter any 329 00:19:28,400 --> 00:19:31,880 country in the world which may be MAD enough to strike China 330 00:19:31,880 --> 00:19:35,840 with nuclear weapons. China will never do this kind of 331 00:19:35,840 --> 00:19:39,440 thing against any other country, but China will never allow that 332 00:19:39,440 --> 00:19:44,120 nuclear power to strike China first to survive China's brutal, 333 00:19:44,160 --> 00:19:48,000 ruthless nuclear retaliation. I hope President Trump will get 334 00:19:48,000 --> 00:19:50,360 that message. And I hope the United States 335 00:19:50,360 --> 00:19:53,920 will never ponder the possibility of using nuclear 336 00:19:53,920 --> 00:19:57,440 weapon against China because that will trigger immediate 337 00:19:57,680 --> 00:20:01,840 nuclear annihilation of the United States by the Chinese 338 00:20:01,840 --> 00:20:05,200 retaliation. I mean, the Americans have not 339 00:20:05,200 --> 00:20:07,800 even dropped the slightest hint that they might want to target 340 00:20:07,800 --> 00:20:10,080 anyone with nuclear weapons, let alone China. 341 00:20:10,520 --> 00:20:12,520 So. So why are you so robust in your 342 00:20:12,520 --> 00:20:15,840 language? No, it's not. 343 00:20:15,840 --> 00:20:18,080 My language is robust. It is. 344 00:20:18,240 --> 00:20:21,720 China's position is as robust as you can expect. 345 00:20:22,120 --> 00:20:25,800 China will not attack any country first with nuclear 346 00:20:25,800 --> 00:20:29,840 weapons, but China will never allow any nuclear power which 347 00:20:29,840 --> 00:20:34,320 strikes China first with nuclear weapon to survive China's 348 00:20:34,360 --> 00:20:39,080 nuclear retaliation period. That's robustness you may be 349 00:20:39,360 --> 00:20:41,920 calling for. And just briefly on this, do you 350 00:20:41,920 --> 00:20:45,640 think that China will now also resume testing of nuclear 351 00:20:45,640 --> 00:20:48,920 weapons? China has never stopped nuclear 352 00:20:48,920 --> 00:20:51,400 testing. China's nuclear stockpile is a 353 00:20:51,400 --> 00:20:54,000 fraction of that of the United States or Russia. 354 00:20:54,280 --> 00:20:56,200 But China's position is very clear. 355 00:20:56,520 --> 00:21:01,160 China will have enough nuclear warheads after the first nuclear 356 00:21:01,160 --> 00:21:05,480 strike by any nuclear power to make sure that that nuclear 357 00:21:05,480 --> 00:21:09,560 power which strikes China first will be annihilated by nuclear 358 00:21:09,560 --> 00:21:12,240 weapon. That is Armageddon, period. 359 00:21:15,720 --> 00:21:18,640 I think, yeah, I'd just like to adding on on this element in 360 00:21:18,640 --> 00:21:19,720 here. So while we're talking about the 361 00:21:19,720 --> 00:21:22,880 PRK, while we're talking about China and we also talk about 362 00:21:22,960 --> 00:21:26,400 Russia and Moscow earlier, I think one of the biggest worry 363 00:21:26,400 --> 00:21:30,800 Beijing would have right now at this moment is that a close ties 364 00:21:30,800 --> 00:21:35,000 between the DPRK and Russia is does not serve China's interests 365 00:21:35,000 --> 00:21:38,040 very well. Now having both surrounded by 366 00:21:38,040 --> 00:21:42,160 nuclear neighbors and China's policy obviously is do not root 367 00:21:42,160 --> 00:21:44,560 out the first by not using the nuclear. 368 00:21:44,960 --> 00:21:48,880 However, I think these things need to be said that what Russia 369 00:21:48,880 --> 00:21:52,840 and DPRK has been doing is not something at Beijing's best 370 00:21:52,840 --> 00:21:57,400 interest at the moment. OK, let's move on to, I want to 371 00:21:57,480 --> 00:22:00,400 get back to the, you know, the, the trade relationship between 372 00:22:00,400 --> 00:22:03,120 America and China, which is, you know, at the heart of the 373 00:22:03,120 --> 00:22:07,080 meeting that we had today. And, and I just wonder, Victor 374 00:22:07,080 --> 00:22:10,200 GAO, whether you think at the end of the day, you know, 375 00:22:10,400 --> 00:22:13,600 American China can find some kind of mutual understanding 376 00:22:14,360 --> 00:22:17,560 where they both, you know, produce high end goods when it 377 00:22:17,560 --> 00:22:19,880 comes to, you know, artificial intelligence. 378 00:22:20,240 --> 00:22:22,800 You know, they both produce electric vehicles. 379 00:22:23,200 --> 00:22:26,280 You know, they help each other on things like climate change. 380 00:22:26,680 --> 00:22:29,040 Or do you think that the competition between these two 381 00:22:29,040 --> 00:22:34,160 great powers is so intense that actually, whatever anyone says, 382 00:22:34,440 --> 00:22:37,440 we are slowly moving towards some kind of confrontation? 383 00:22:39,000 --> 00:22:41,120 No, I don't think so. I think about the end of the 384 00:22:41,120 --> 00:22:45,240 day, I truly believe in the inevitability of peace between 385 00:22:45,240 --> 00:22:49,360 China and the United States. I'm a complete opposer to the 386 00:22:49,360 --> 00:22:52,560 so-called destined for war scenario between China and the 387 00:22:52,560 --> 00:22:55,000 United States. Allow me to use soybean as an 388 00:22:55,000 --> 00:22:57,720 example. China has the biggest demand for 389 00:22:57,720 --> 00:23:02,480 soybean and if the United States wants to wait tariff war against 390 00:23:02,480 --> 00:23:07,640 China, then China will not buy a single item of soybean to the 391 00:23:07,640 --> 00:23:10,600 great detriment of the soybean growers in the United States. 392 00:23:10,880 --> 00:23:14,360 That means the United States should give up any idea of 393 00:23:14,360 --> 00:23:17,800 weaponizing tariff against China because otherwise China will 394 00:23:17,800 --> 00:23:21,360 retaliate. China will be ready to see 395 00:23:21,360 --> 00:23:26,160 complete winding down to zero of the two way trading goods If the 396 00:23:26,160 --> 00:23:28,440 United States wants to weaponize tariff. 397 00:23:28,640 --> 00:23:31,480 That is the bottom line. China wants to engage with the 398 00:23:31,480 --> 00:23:34,160 United States. China wants to buy as much 399 00:23:34,280 --> 00:23:38,680 soybean as the American farmers can grow and China's the only 400 00:23:38,680 --> 00:23:41,200 biggest market for soybean amazingly. 401 00:23:41,440 --> 00:23:44,320 Therefore, President Trump should really think about the 402 00:23:44,320 --> 00:23:48,320 well-being of the American farmers before he even thinks 403 00:23:48,320 --> 00:23:51,720 about the crazy idea of launching tariff war against 404 00:23:51,720 --> 00:23:54,040 China. We should go back to square one. 405 00:23:54,280 --> 00:23:58,320 That means China and the United States don't weaponize tariff 406 00:23:58,360 --> 00:24:01,080 against each other. That is the better way between 407 00:24:01,080 --> 00:24:04,000 China and the United States. Right. 408 00:24:04,000 --> 00:24:05,640 But what about Chinese factories? 409 00:24:05,640 --> 00:24:09,320 You have a manufacturing bubble. You know, you after your 410 00:24:09,320 --> 00:24:12,480 property bubble burst, you put all your assets and all your 411 00:24:12,480 --> 00:24:15,360 investment into manufacturing. You want to become, you know, 412 00:24:15,560 --> 00:24:18,400 the, the world's, you know, single most important 413 00:24:18,400 --> 00:24:20,680 manufacturing power and you're brilliant at it. 414 00:24:20,920 --> 00:24:22,640 But you need to sell the stuff that you make. 415 00:24:22,640 --> 00:24:26,080 And you can't sell all of it to China or even to Southeast Asia 416 00:24:26,080 --> 00:24:28,200 or to Europe. You're going to have to sell a 417 00:24:28,200 --> 00:24:31,520 lot of it to America. So that is where the Americans 418 00:24:31,680 --> 00:24:34,080 have a stranglehold over you, don't they? 419 00:24:34,280 --> 00:24:36,960 Because if you don't sell the stuff, your factories go bust 420 00:24:36,960 --> 00:24:38,320 and your workers get very unhappy. 421 00:24:39,960 --> 00:24:43,120 With due respect, I completely disagree with you, Sir. 422 00:24:43,280 --> 00:24:45,080 Why? Because the United States has 423 00:24:45,080 --> 00:24:49,360 been calling for decoupling for at least seven or eight years. 424 00:24:49,600 --> 00:24:53,480 Do you think China will not prepare for that extreme 425 00:24:53,480 --> 00:24:56,040 situation? China's fully prepared if the 426 00:24:56,040 --> 00:24:59,560 United States really wants to decouple from China, meaning 427 00:24:59,640 --> 00:25:01,680 there will be no more trade between China and the United 428 00:25:01,680 --> 00:25:04,960 States, if that's what the United States wants to see, and 429 00:25:04,960 --> 00:25:07,920 China will be fully prepared. Do you know what we are talking 430 00:25:07,920 --> 00:25:10,360 about now? We are talking about landing 431 00:25:10,760 --> 00:25:13,720 persons on the moon ahead of any other country. 432 00:25:14,160 --> 00:25:17,880 We are talking about fusion technology to generate power 433 00:25:18,120 --> 00:25:22,360 without limit and bringing the benefits to the 8 billion people 434 00:25:22,360 --> 00:25:24,920 in the world. We are talking about deep space, 435 00:25:25,160 --> 00:25:27,720 deep sea. We are talking about everything 436 00:25:27,720 --> 00:25:31,560 to be enabled by AI. We are not not talking about 437 00:25:31,880 --> 00:25:36,440 producing toys or garments or textiles or shoes anymore. 438 00:25:36,600 --> 00:25:40,000 We are talking really about the cutting edge technology, the 439 00:25:40,000 --> 00:25:42,720 breakthrough that mankind can think about. 440 00:25:43,040 --> 00:25:47,080 That will be the stabilizing factor for the Chinese economic 441 00:25:47,080 --> 00:25:49,560 growth. I don't think there is any other 442 00:25:49,560 --> 00:25:54,240 country in the world which is so focused on what we call new 443 00:25:54,240 --> 00:25:57,960 qualitative productivity, which is a tongue twister, but which 444 00:25:57,960 --> 00:26:03,680 means you generate productivity through technological 445 00:26:03,800 --> 00:26:06,040 breakthroughs. That's what China is focused 446 00:26:06,040 --> 00:26:07,600 upon now, all. Right. 447 00:26:08,600 --> 00:26:10,200 Do you? Do you buy? 448 00:26:10,200 --> 00:26:11,920 Do you buy what Victor is selling? 449 00:26:13,320 --> 00:26:16,440 Just to putting this the not the tongue twister, but the new 450 00:26:16,440 --> 00:26:20,160 terms on the economic terms that Beijing has defined. 451 00:26:20,160 --> 00:26:24,200 Putting it aside, I think what we have seen so far really again 452 00:26:24,200 --> 00:26:27,040 judging from the readouts we have from both and today is 453 00:26:27,040 --> 00:26:30,800 actually United States has promising to invested more in 454 00:26:30,840 --> 00:26:32,920 China. And that is actually not 455 00:26:32,920 --> 00:26:36,120 reducing the dependency, but actually increasing the 456 00:26:36,120 --> 00:26:38,800 dependency between China and United States. 457 00:26:38,800 --> 00:26:42,080 And if we're talking about market behaviour and what United 458 00:26:42,080 --> 00:26:45,600 States been asking, asking China to purchasing extra soya beans, 459 00:26:46,000 --> 00:26:49,280 that is actually a market distortion that is not actually 460 00:26:49,480 --> 00:26:51,400 something that follow the market economy. 461 00:26:51,400 --> 00:26:54,240 So whether China's willing to do that, that is up to Beijing to 462 00:26:54,240 --> 00:26:55,320 decide. On one hand. 463 00:26:55,640 --> 00:26:58,480 Then I think on the other hand, Beijing has already learned from 464 00:26:58,480 --> 00:27:03,040 the sense of unpredictability and also the the economic 465 00:27:03,040 --> 00:27:05,480 behaviour that's set up by the Trump administration. 466 00:27:05,480 --> 00:27:09,040 So what Beijing has decided is not to putting all the eggs in 467 00:27:09,080 --> 00:27:11,840 one basket. I think equally United States is 468 00:27:11,840 --> 00:27:16,080 playing on a similar strategy in here, do not overlay dependent 469 00:27:16,080 --> 00:27:18,880 on China and like likewise I think European Union does the 470 00:27:18,880 --> 00:27:21,080 same thing. So I think what we have right 471 00:27:21,080 --> 00:27:24,560 now is every single country, major economies in the world, 472 00:27:24,640 --> 00:27:28,200 they all become so inward looking and it has LED into the 473 00:27:28,200 --> 00:27:31,520 situation where we are today. So it's less of the dependency, 474 00:27:31,760 --> 00:27:34,760 but it's more about setting the forgeries and how can I protect 475 00:27:34,800 --> 00:27:37,000 oneself. OK. 476 00:27:37,600 --> 00:27:39,920 Just finally, I want to spend a minute or two talking about 477 00:27:39,920 --> 00:27:43,320 Taiwan. First, you Juja Taiwan, as far 478 00:27:43,320 --> 00:27:46,160 as I can gather, didn't come up at all in the meeting. 479 00:27:46,160 --> 00:27:48,720 Certainly there was nothing in the official readout about 480 00:27:48,720 --> 00:27:50,120 Taiwan. Does that surprise you? 481 00:27:52,000 --> 00:27:53,480 No, it's not surprising me at all. 482 00:27:53,760 --> 00:27:57,400 I think really judging from the the results and also judging 483 00:27:57,400 --> 00:28:00,400 from the mood was United States that obviously Taiwan is a 484 00:28:00,400 --> 00:28:03,480 major, major issue between the two. 485 00:28:03,640 --> 00:28:06,920 And then that's probably the fundamental agreement between 486 00:28:06,920 --> 00:28:09,800 the Beijing and the United States back to 1979 when they 487 00:28:09,800 --> 00:28:12,040 formally established diplomatic relations. 488 00:28:12,520 --> 00:28:16,440 So I think any major changes regarding Taiwan, firstly that 489 00:28:16,440 --> 00:28:19,480 would require to have some at least foundational level of 490 00:28:19,480 --> 00:28:21,920 trust between Beijing and Washington. 491 00:28:22,000 --> 00:28:24,800 And moment I do not see that trust actually exist. 492 00:28:24,840 --> 00:28:28,200 And secondly, they are China Hawks around the Trump 493 00:28:28,200 --> 00:28:33,200 administration and WHO deliberately looking for changes 494 00:28:33,200 --> 00:28:36,680 in status towards Taiwan. So I think really for Donald 495 00:28:36,680 --> 00:28:39,680 Trump himself, and he's not really willing to make a very 496 00:28:39,680 --> 00:28:43,400 bold move for that. But you got a final question to 497 00:28:43,400 --> 00:28:46,080 you. Do you think if you if your 498 00:28:46,080 --> 00:28:49,400 government were to encroach on Taiwan militarily, either 499 00:28:49,400 --> 00:28:52,520 through a naval blockade or an invasion, and we know that Xi 500 00:28:52,520 --> 00:28:55,840 Jinping is on the record for saying that he wants Taiwan to 501 00:28:55,840 --> 00:28:58,960 be reunified, as you put it, with the motherland at some 502 00:28:58,960 --> 00:29:02,840 stage before he leaves office. Do you think that President 503 00:29:02,840 --> 00:29:06,320 Trump, should he be in the White House at the time, will sit by 504 00:29:06,320 --> 00:29:10,080 and do nothing, or will he intervene and use American power 505 00:29:10,080 --> 00:29:13,760 to stop you? First of all, let's be honest, 506 00:29:13,800 --> 00:29:17,200 the real status of the relations across the two sides of the 507 00:29:17,200 --> 00:29:21,120 Taiwan Strait is the unfinished civil war back in 1949. 508 00:29:21,440 --> 00:29:25,200 So if China really moves to achieve unification or 509 00:29:25,200 --> 00:29:29,040 liberation of Taiwan, it is the resurrection of the unfinished 510 00:29:29,080 --> 00:29:31,240 civil war. Do you really think the United 511 00:29:31,240 --> 00:29:33,960 States or President Trump or anyone else in the White House 512 00:29:34,160 --> 00:29:37,080 want to be involved in the civil war between the two sides of the 513 00:29:37,080 --> 00:29:38,800 Taiwan Strait? That's number one. 514 00:29:39,080 --> 00:29:43,720 I'm completely ruling that option out on the table. 515 00:29:43,800 --> 00:29:48,400 Secondly, the status of Taiwan being part of China is carving 516 00:29:48,400 --> 00:29:51,400 stone in the Cairo Declaration and the Boston Proclamation. 517 00:29:51,640 --> 00:29:54,400 No one can change that. Whether you want to try that or 518 00:29:54,400 --> 00:29:57,080 not, that's another matter. But you can never change the 519 00:29:57,080 --> 00:30:01,240 final verdict of history in the Cairo Declaration and the Boston 520 00:30:01,240 --> 00:30:05,040 Proclamation, meaning China's completely on the right side of 521 00:30:05,040 --> 00:30:07,520 history. If we want to have another civil 522 00:30:07,520 --> 00:30:12,960 war to finish the unfinished civil war back in 1949, that's 523 00:30:12,960 --> 00:30:16,560 China's internal matter. Taiwan will be liberated by 524 00:30:16,600 --> 00:30:22,320 peaceful means preferably, or by a resurrected civil war if it is 525 00:30:22,320 --> 00:30:24,120 necessary. But you don't. 526 00:30:24,120 --> 00:30:25,760 Want to be liberated, Victor Gow. 527 00:30:25,760 --> 00:30:28,160 They don't want to be liberated. They quite like living in their 528 00:30:28,160 --> 00:30:31,160 own country. The majority of Tiny do not want 529 00:30:31,160 --> 00:30:33,680 to be part of the People's Republic of China. 530 00:30:34,760 --> 00:30:37,040 Well, the people in the Confederation did not want to 531 00:30:37,040 --> 00:30:40,120 join the Union, but President Lincoln decided otherwise. 532 00:30:40,240 --> 00:30:43,280 President Lincoln decided to bring them back to the Union 533 00:30:43,720 --> 00:30:47,560 with force if it is necessary. And this is exactly what the 534 00:30:47,560 --> 00:30:50,120 Union did against the Confederation. 535 00:30:50,360 --> 00:30:54,520 And that is the only logical conclusion for the relations 536 00:30:54,520 --> 00:30:57,640 between the Federation on the one side and the Confederation 537 00:30:57,640 --> 00:31:00,000 on the other side. The Confederation was defeated 538 00:31:00,400 --> 00:31:03,280 and now they are very much part of the Union. 539 00:31:03,480 --> 00:31:08,000 And the United States after the Civil War has been one nation 540 00:31:08,000 --> 00:31:11,320 under God, indivisible. That is the truth of the United 541 00:31:11,320 --> 00:31:13,440 States. It will be the truth for China 542 00:31:13,440 --> 00:31:15,960 too. One day when China is reunited, 543 00:31:16,160 --> 00:31:21,520 you will see China will never be divisible and no one can ever 544 00:31:21,520 --> 00:31:25,080 dare to split any part of China away from China. 545 00:31:26,560 --> 00:31:29,520 Very quick one to you Jujo, to finish the podcast. 546 00:31:30,320 --> 00:31:33,400 In how many years from now do you expect Beijing to make a 547 00:31:33,400 --> 00:31:37,640 move on Taiwan? Well, I think we have the second 548 00:31:37,720 --> 00:31:43,440 Centennial goal. So at some .2049 we have been 549 00:31:43,440 --> 00:31:45,600 reserved one way or another. Let me put in here. 550 00:31:46,960 --> 00:31:48,520 That's that's quite a long time frame, I think. 551 00:31:48,720 --> 00:31:51,920 I think Xi Jinping would like to be done sooner rather than 552 00:31:51,920 --> 00:31:54,320 later. Thanks very much to both of you. 553 00:31:54,320 --> 00:31:57,360 Victor GAO, who stayed up late for us in Beijing, thank you 554 00:31:57,360 --> 00:32:00,280 very much indeed. And Doctor Zhujia, Dr. GAO and 555 00:32:00,280 --> 00:32:02,440 Doctor Zhujia in London, thanks to you as well. 556 00:32:02,440 --> 00:32:04,160 That's it for this episode of THE Forecast. 557 00:32:04,200 --> 00:32:06,360 Until next time, goodbye.